Justin Schultz looked good by eye and by math last night. Justin Schultz looked good by eye and math last night. He received lots of positive words after the St. Louis game, but for me the Nashville game was far better. Before we get to the numbers for the blue, a few things:
- Lots of people all over Sekera for the first GA last night and he certainly did stickhandle himself into a corner. That said, Mark Letestu needed to offer support there (staying high, making sure Edmonton wasn’t outnumbered by Preds). You can blame Sekera and that’s fine, but it’s also true the rest of the team has to be better in terms of positioning and awareness there.
- I expect it’s going to be a very difficult year for Andrew Ference, wrote about it here. The only thing that may change? Ference may end up playing fewer than 28 games. There’s no defense of the mistake by the former captain last night, so I will offer none. When a veteran makes a rookie play, well I guess that must be hockey’s circle of life. The contract ends summer 2017, Edmonton can buy him out next summer. Todd McLellan will have to decide how many games the veteran will see in the coming months. Not an easy situation on either side of the equation.
THE BLUE LAST NIGHT, IN A BOX
The ZS’s didn’t really have a dungeon last night, but the Klefbom—Schultz pairing faced the toughest and came out above 50%. Sekera was in fact used in a strong OZone role and I like that adjustment—for me that’s good usage, although would have thought Schultz was the more obvious choice. Ference—Gryba were solid by the numbers and Gryba impresses me as a guy who can actually defend (he has no offensive potential at all, however). Ference we discussed above.
THE CENTERS LAST NIGHT, IN A BOX
Nuge was splendid last night, I’m loving his progress as a player. He’s not perfect, and when he makes a mistake it’s back of the net because Oilers, but he’s an excellent NHL center. McDavid got the push (like he should) and for me there’s simply too much there to worry about two games without a point. When he breaks out, he’ll probably score two extra to make up for the last two games. DO NOT WORRY about Connor McDavid, he’ll be fine. The Lander and Letestu lines had tough nights.
I wanted to highlight McDavid’s night because it may have seen a turning point for Todd McLellan and his search for hockey chemistry. Remember, McD was 59% overall 5×5 Corsi for %.
MCDAVID LINEMATES LAST NIGHT
- Nail Yakupov 8-4 .667 Corsi events (6:23 EV TOI)
- Benoit Pouliot 8-6 .571 Corsi events (8:38 EV TOI)
- Lauri Korpikoski 5-5 .500 Corsi events (4:42 EV TOI)
- Source
The McDavid—Yakupov chemistry may kill Don Cherry, but we’re going to have to risk it. The young Russian looked effective and rapido out there, with the added appeal of Hall emerging on the Nuge line with nine shots. These things take time to develop and never say never with regard to Hall—McDavid, but Don Cherry may be wise to start looking at the Kingston phone books for the “Yakupov” surname. MUST be a connection!
WINGERS LAST NIGHT, IN A BOX
People are all over Purcell, but he made a splendid pass to Hall for the point blank last night, should have been a goal and will be when Hall finds the groove. I think McLellan will run Hall with Nuge and Purcell until Eberle gets back, and would be shocked if we don’t see McDavid with Yak and Poo next game.
Which brings me to Slepyshev. I think we may see him sent to Bakersfield in the next few days, with Leon Draisaitl a possible recall. TC impressions can fool people and I think it’s wise to allow this young man to find his game. I felt at the time the right call involved keeping Draisaitl and sending out Slepy and the handling of Anton Lander compels Peter Chiarelli to make this move.
Edmonton is between a rock and a hard place with Andrew Ference, but there’s no such barrier for a Slepyshev—Draisaitl swap. That should happen today.
Guys, it’s just game two. And St Louis and Nashville crying out loud! Arizona is 2-0 and Pittsburgh is 0-2. I’m not worried.
Tulo!
*** NERD ALERT ***
https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/10/11/the-fancystats-mystery-that-was-nikita-nikitin/
Got this half baked article out of the oven at the same time as the turkey.
Happy (Canadian) Thanksgiving, everyone!
Guilty.
Meh, we just need to beat a team 6-1 (with a 4 point night for McDavid) and everything around here will be “music” again.
Woodguy,
Thanks
sorry I didn’t mean to say that you shouldn’t include the latest season. I also thought their 08 season was better in terms of GF60.
I however don’t find x year data useful without seeing the trend line as it can be a bit misleading- They have been up and down in terms of GF60 – 2009-2011 and 2013 being strong years.
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Tim-Chiasson/Where-Are-The-Sharks-Shooting-From/214/63710 can confirm that the sharks do indeed shoot from everywhere so you’re right about that.
However I never noticed the Sharks as a team that shoots without a purpose – they usually have a guy or two crashing the net. So it may have worked some years, not worked some other years for whatever reason – I think maybe that’s something you or someone else can examine (not me, I’ll be stuffed with turkey ;)) Also as I said, the sharks retooled a bit after the ’12 season. Further I’ve never heard Mclellan – and he doesn’t strike me as a guy that does this – talk about Corsi being a goal in of itself.
The last couple games looks like Eakins hockey, but I doubt that he’s happy that they are taking shots anyone going to the net to cash in those rebounds, or taking shots to the inside.
It all started when he hit me back!
Uh-oh. Guys, Dad’s just crushed his beer can without realising it and has that tick in his eye.
Halfwise,
That’s fantastic ammunition
A reference to the Dynasty that they once imagined themselves becoming.
I watch specifically for blueline turnovers on attempted Oiler breakouts, and entering the O-zone with possession or a chip-and-chase with good chances of recovery. The team is better, by eye and by LRBP (Living Room Blood Pressure).
Playoffs are a distant bell because they are coming from the sub-basement. That is not the fault of either the current coach or his boss.
~ You and your obsession with moral victories. The season will be over by the time you start to even care about results. ~
Магия 10,
If anyone asks ‘are we there yet’, I SWEAR, I’M STOPPING THE CAR!
Btw where does Dys come from?
Chirping my canucklehead cousin at the game in Van next week.
You … you … disagreed with me?
Dammit, why is it so dusty in here!??
*walks away sadly*
“Hey Geno – Jim here. Yeah we want you to waive your no-trade to go to Phoenix. What? No no, that was just one season, they’re on the upswing. Of course we’re trading for that blueliner who can wheel do there won’t be anybody who can get you the puck.”
“Shit. Geno won’t accept the trade. I’m going to be fuckin fired”.
They all did it first. Make them all stop.
Good question.
I kind of laid out some of my baseline expectations in my last NerdAlert, which talked specifically about the horrific early season schedule. At best, this team with this roster is a mid-pack bubble-playoff team. Reasonable expectations? .333 against elite teams, .500 against fellow mid-pack teams, .667 against bottom-feeders.
But temper that down a bit in the early going (for gelling purposes) and a bit higher later in the season (where the roster should be mature and fully versed in the system, just as the schedule becomes a whole lot easier).
I guess the challenge here is – because of that brutal schedule, roster turnover, new system – it’s the process moreso than the result right now.
Patience would be for as long as the team looks like they are getting the hang of it. ‘It’ being in particular, five man breakouts with support, uptempo puck pressure in the offense and neutral zone, better defensive positioning, and some position battles in front of the bad guys net (lots of stuff this team needs to work on).
I see those things – lots of them – so far, and I also saw an improvement (Ference notwithstanding) from Game 1 to Game 2.
So at this point, I’m not that worried about the results.
But the results do have to start coming at some point.
If we’re at game 10, and the team has had some games at home and some games against non-elite teams, and you don’t start seeing the process translate into results, then I’d start considering changes.
But so far, in context I haven’t seen anything to suggest that the team isn’t about where it should be.
HOLY SH*T. I hate to interrupt the family feud with positivity but …
About two months ago, I was at a bit of a standstill and on the verge of giving up on a variety of my data projects, because I just couldn’t get some of the NHL scraping of key data working properly. Time on ice (shifts for players) in particular, rosters secondarily.
Then war-on-ice decided to release all of their data as play by play files! Whoop! Problem solved! I rewrote all my scripts to read their files instead of my own scraped files, and I was off to the races.
Once I got the key calculations working, my plan is/was to release a bunch of shot type / distance / location / difficulty / score adjusted metrics after each game. Other sites do this too, but one thing that is hard to find is to get that info on a player + d pair + forward line + 5 man unit basis, which I was planning to include as well.
Which worked great until I realized a week ago that it doesn’t look like war-on-ice will be releasing this stuff game by game. Only the whole shebang at the end of each season. I’ve nagged them and also @MannyElk via Twitter about it, but so far nothing.
So its great for retrospective looks, but in-season … not so much.
Yesterday, with much reluctance, I figured I better start seeing if I could get back to scraping this stuff myself. Dug into my old scripts with a fresh eye. Discombobulated the various NHL pages. Tested a few different heuristics for extracting the relevant data and ignoring all the extraneous crap.
Took a break for hockey and football. Tested some more.
Got it working this afternoon.
Yeah baby! THAT IS SOME *FINE* LOOKIN’ DATA! Back on track!
OK, back to the regularly scheduled … whatever it is.
Based on this line of reasoning, Oilers should have never traded GoneYay.
I think the Pens wanted Weber for Malkin. They could of made that deal if they weren’t such loosers.
GMoney,
How long would you wait before you made major changes to the Oilers roster? If they still haven’t gelled at game twenty do you really shake things up? I get that you think it takes time for all the changes to take effect but in your model is there an absolute drop dead date?
I love you.
Crosby doesn’t have a shot in 2 games.
As I have said for months until he he trades Malkin for OEL the Penguins are loosers.
Max Domi more dominate than any Pens forwards. Thats all you need to know.
No.
Goals per game he is 23rd, which is also pretty damn good. Hall is 24th.
He is also 18th in offensive point shares. Hall is 28th.
Goals created Eberle is 17th, Hall is 38th.
No matter how you slice it, Eberle is a very very good player and a key to the Oilers offence.
Challenge accepted!
Last 4 posts all pure gold, Jerry.
Talk to you all later, got to get the pies out of the oven and start on the meal.
Peace out, and keep her shiny side up.
I can’t read worth beans today.comment deleted.
VerfreakingDad Two.Oh,
Max Domi more dominant than any Oiler forward.
This is a great example of hyperbole with no evidence.
Still waiting for the likes of RNH or Hall to actually take a game and assert their will on it.
Never happens.
RNH-Hall-Purcell run over 60% against Weber and they’re dog shit.
You are the worst poster ever.
At least DSF included some semblance of reality in his posts.
kinger_OIL,
plus guys will tell you that you and your post is sh%t because its not consensus
No, its shit when there’s not proof.
As for “consensus”, in the last week I:
-disagreed with LT on DrySaddle.
-disagreed with Gmoney on Scrivens
-disagreed with most on Yak
-disagree with most on Gryba
No ones pushed me out for disagreeing yet….. (*checks twitter DMs*)
What most here don’t like is hyperbole not backed up with any facts.
That’s the only consensus I’ve ever seen.
23 across. I need a 6 letter name beginning with a V.
No doubt to keep the fire friendly.
Hey LT, what’s the criteria for a comment moderation?
Is it random?
kinger_OIL,
WTF? What are you doing back?
🙂
Happy Thanksgiving, Verdad!
Gonna be compelting myself to eat turkey leftovers for the rest of the week.
As I have said for months this team is going to start no better than Eakins.
It needs to deconstructed.
Its core players are losers. Flat out true.
Still waiting for the likes of RNH or Hall to actually take a game and assert their will on it.
Never happens.
This team needs to be rebuilt. We know this. They are just shameful to watch.
Max Domi more dominant than any Oiler forward. That tells you all you need to know.
Looks like a little compelting is in order then.
Update: If we cave it’s a least 7 years of LT saying he likes Toews but technically it was an overpay.
Bowman just called back and said there’s no way he’s throwing in a seventh. Toews for Eberle or the deal’s off.
G Money,
I agree as well. This is a much more sound team already. The basic structure looks better. With a working PP there would be far less arguing as that tends to hide offensive issues 5v5 as long as the D is there. In a way it might be blessing that the PP has been cold as it puts a light on 5v5. But as a whole I’m actually encouraged by the start.
Walter :
– Don’t worry I feel you pain – plus guys will tell you that you and your post is sh%t because its not consensus, and wish you good riddance
Maybe a 2nd helping of turkey is what you need. LOL 🙂
Fun thread!
100%. I think the 39.8% CF% the Oilers put up against St Louis last year was their worst game of the year. A big tough Hitchcock coached dead-puck team is kryptonite to the Oilers.
To play them at home so close to breakeven in the very first game is no minor feat.
I don’t get why there is so much consternation.
Just saw a tweet a little while ago that the consensus from folks attending the current RITHAC (Rochester Inst of Tech Hockey Analytics Conference) is that Nashville has the best D in the league right now.
As long as the Oilers (who are still the youngest team in the league) do not lose their trust in the system and the coach as a result of this brutal early stretch, when they do finally play one of the weak sisters, I’m hoping it will feel like a walk in the park by comparison.
russ99,
I’d suggest we give the new roster players at least 5 games to get adapted to the NHL, and the players overall about 10 games to get a handle on TMc’s systems.
Short term results aside, I can already see a significant improvement in their game this year from last year (notwithstanding the PP, and when Ference is on the ice).
Am I the only one that thinks this? [Thankfully Rex sees much the same – whether that means he and I are watching for the same things, or alternatively, share the same brand of crazy … remains to be seen]
Basically a saw off. So throw in a 7th and call it a deal
That’s all very well, but…
What exactly do you think is wrong?
*whooosh*
Great idea.
I’ll give her a knee to the chops when I go downtown too
Yes and 2 games is small sample.
Eakins entire sample is Oct 1/13 to Dec 15/14
SCF/60 = 25.4 – 19th in NHL
HDSC/60 = 10.6 – 14th in NHL.
The narrative that Eakins had them “shoot from the outside” has no basis in reality.
Data via War on ice
Might I recommend two person basketball? That’ll show her!
Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,
What you’re saying feels true, with the exception of the games Nurse played in the pre-season. It’s not strictly about the fact that he fights, that’s a symptom, but about how he gives a damn.
Late in preseason Nurse threw away a puck in the defensive zone, was left puck watching as it turned into a turnover and as a result screened the goalie on the ensuing shot.
Rookie mistake, cost him any shot at the opening roster, and a lesson learned. The important bit was that skating off the ice after the goal, Nurse was absolutely, thoroughly *disgusted with himself* and Pissed Off. Like that scene from Boys on the Bus where the Oilers enter the locker room after a loss, simply irate.
Before Nurse, that was what Taylor Hall used to be like until he had half the passion beat out of him from years of losing.
The Oilers have young players by age, but they are old in NHL experience unlike the players on CGY and VAN or Oilers like Nurse and Draisaitl who are in the AHL because you can’t teach passion but you can certainly un-learn it.