WHATEVER HAPPENED TO HOMES AS OPPOSED TO HOUSES?
The first Oklahoma City Barons team Todd Nelson coached featured seven significant rookies—and they all made it to the NHL. Jeff Petry is a bona fide NHL defenseman, Mark Arcobello and Chris VandeVelde are past 100 NHL games; Teemu Hartikainen (52) Colten Teubert (24), Phil Cornet (2) and Milan Kytnar (1) all saw playing time in the world’s best league.
The 11-12 Barons held some promise but were derailed (Tyler Pitlick has another concussion btw) for various shortcomings le hockey. The 12-13 Barons had some legit talent, including Justin Schultz (203 NHL games entering the season), Anton Lander (132), Martin Marincin (85), Brandon Davidson (12) and Taylor Fedun (11). That’s probably going to be a better rookie crop than the 2010-11 edition.
The 13-14 Barons had another good defenseman in Oscar Klefbom. That’s three good prospects in a four year span (Klef, Petry, Schultz) and suggests the Oilers system is productive in at least one area. From 13-14, Klefbom (77 NHL games entering the season), Andrew Miller (9) are David Musil (4) working on establishing themselves. The 14-15 Barons rookies looked like this:
- C Bogdan Yakimov 57GP, 12-16-28
- D Jordan Oesterle 65GP, 8-17-25
- L Josh Winquist 46GP, 8-11-19
- D Dillon Simpson 71GP, 3-14-17
- F Kellen Jones 49GP, 5-10-15
- C Connor Jones 41GP, 4-6-10
- C Jujhar Khaira 51GP, 4-6-10
- L Mitchell Moroz 66GP, 5-4-9
- D CJ Ludwig 28GP, 1-4-5
- G Laurent Brossoit 53GP, 2.56 .918
Last year three of these men played in the NHL: Jordan Oesterle (6 NHL games), Bogdan Yakimov (1) and Laurent Brossoit (1). If any of these gents is going to have an NHL career, the time to step up is now, this season. The rookies of 2014-15 are all shy offensively (Yakimov, Oesterle and Winquist have some offensive promise) and the physical players like Jujhar Khaira simply couldn’t deliver enough with the bat. This season, Khaira has two points in four games (both at even strength) and part of the spike could be TOI. We don’t know of course, and his college and junior numbers suggested he would be shy offensively, but we’ll see how things go. Yakimov and Moroz have scored and Brossoit is the starting G in Bakersfield.
BAKERSFIELD’S ROOKIES 2015-16
- C Leon Draisaitl 4GP, 0-1-1*
- L Braden Christoffer 4GP, 0-1-1
- C Kyle Platzer 4GP, 0-1-1
- D Darnell Nurse 4GP, 0-0-0
- D Joey Laleggia 4GP, 0-0-0
- G Eetu Laurikainen 1GP, 4.02 .818
*Leon Draisaitl isn’t a rookie but we’re going to follow him here because, at not yet 20, he remains a prospect under my definition (under 50 NHL games). We should also see Ben Betker, Greg Chase and possibly Anton Slepyshev added to the list over this season.
McDavid on the Oilers being 0-4-0 to start the season ? pic.twitter.com/ERLilenlYi
— The Hockey Gods! (@HockeyGods) October 16, 2015
Now that the Oilers have won two games and McDavid had his first big night, I’ll post this item. I laughed so hard when it first appeared on twitter, lordy that’s funny. I’ve seen that exact photo for decades, Bobby Hull, Gordie Howe, Bobby Orr, Frank Mahovlich. That’s a great trick, taking a 50-year old image and making it fresh and funny. Well done.
@Condors @EdmontonOilers @CondorsHolty No question, Darnell Nurse has been The Man for Bakersfield so far in 2015… pic.twitter.com/xg08ZEMMPr
— Mark I Williams M.D. (@CameraGuyBakoCA) October 16, 2015
NURSE
We’re counting down to the Darnell Nurse recall and based on speed issues in Edmonton I can’t see this taking half the season. If we’re honest about the six men who will play tomorrow night on defense (probably) there are at least two men who are shy in terms of speed. That’s a better number than one year ago but we’re basically waiting for a trade or injury to get him here. In the mean time, there is much to learn.
- Gerry Fleming: “He has to be patient, let the game come to him, work on his reads (against puck carriers).”
- More Fleming: “He’s going against the other team’s top lines every night and there’s some pretty good players in the American Hockey League. He’s been strong on the cycle, killing lots of plays there … his positioning, gap-control, stick work, all good. He’s good in front of our net and he’s played on the power play and the penalty-kill. I use him in every situation.”
- Source
I have Nurse playing 50 NHL games this season. Barring a trade, and that could happen, a strong showing (as above) over the season’s first quarter should get noticed. After that, Nurse should have passed all tests and be ready to help. I think he’s one of the six best defensemen in Edmonton’s employ as we speak.
LINES AND PAIRINGS
The Oilers are back to work today, suspect we won’t see much in the way of change. I think Andrew Miller might get a look on the Nuge line, he worked well with Hall a season ago in a quick look-see. Jordan Eberle’s ETA hasn’t been mentioned of late, but Todd McLellan has auditioned a few options over these weeks and Miller is an interesting addition.
If the Oilers decide to look outside via trade—McLellan may like a gritty winger for the Nuge line, even when Eberle gets back—we could see some movement in that direction soon. It’s tough to make a deal, though.
- Jarmo Kekalinanen: “There’s nothing available that fits out plans, or the price is so steep that … you can’t do that. Misery loves company, right? So you talk to teams that are in a similar situation and try to work something out, but it’s not easy.” Source
As we know, this is a tough time of year to make deals. Edmonton is more than willing to unload Nikita Nikitin or Ben Scrivens, and I do think Mark Fayne could be in play. Could they help Columbus? Fayne could, but I’m not sure the Jackets should do anything beyond finding out what the hell is wrong with Bobrovsky.
For the Oilers, you probably wait 20 games. Auditioning guys like Andrew Miller isn’t a bad plan until Jordan Eberle returns, and Darnell Nurse could be a helluva upgrade in the season’s first half. Leon Draisaitl could be a second half help and maybe the Oilers don’t need to make an addition from external forces. I don’t believe that, Edmonton’s cap room next season is going to mean some team comes calling with an attractive option.
WAR-ON-ICE SLEDGEHAMMER
We don’t have the Vollman’s yet, but I thought it might be cool to get an early look at the blue bubbles and usage. McLellan (remember our discussions from summer) did assign harsh ZS’s to the Vlasic pairing but wasn’t a ZS madman with the forwards. Let’s have a look.
Plenty of road games in here so McLellan’s hand in terms of competition is limited. He does in fact show a tendency to push the McDavid line into Ozone starts, but that’s just good business. The top two lines look fantastic here in terms of possession, suspect the tweaking up front comes from the 6’s and 7’s and 9’s (plus a Ryan Smyth if they can find him). I’d love to see an in-house, Nurse type solution but Jujhar Khaira isn’t ready and may never be ready. Hurry up, young man!
Haha. Man, that’s funny. Okay, well Sekera—Fayne and Klefbom—Schultz are getting the toughest minutes and zone starts and that’s about as close as you’ll see two pairings. Colors are good, too. The third pairing is in the soft parade part of the graph and the color is not good. Nurse!!! Man. This is a George Carlin level giggle graph. That’s basically comical.
(Courtesy Rex Libris)
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning on the show, 10 on TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:
- Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey and Oilers Nation. The season so far, McDavid in Calgary and what to do about that third pairing.
- Guy Flaming, Pipeline Show. We’ll talk NHL rookies, Oil Kings and NCAA underway.
- Scott Cullen, TSN. McDavid, Jays, CFL.
- Open Line. Jays! McDavid! You name it, 11:25.
10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
I worry about JJ ever being ready as well.
I thought he could grow into the Boyd Gordon role in a “worst case” scenario and make Lander obsolete in the “best case”.
Jeepers LT, get some patience, man.
Nurse and Leon need time in the minors to properly develop.
The fact they might be better than someone in the majors is irrelevant.
You should know this from baseball. There are lots of high ceiling guys with 95 mph fastballs that could pitch out of the ML bullpen, but smart teams keep them in the minors as starters until they develop better control, a change up and a curve/ slider.
Leon has good tools, but he needs to learn to play the game better. Playing in the AHL in all situations, and against top opposition is better for him than playing 15 minutes a night in a bottom six role. If they develop him right, he could step right into a top 4 pairing. Along the way they save money in the short term and long term.
I agree on Nurse….
but what do we do with Ference, Davidson and the GM’s shiny new toy – Gryba?
Or does Griff go down to get more time?
I’m higher than most on JJ..think he makes it along with Yak 2.. I don’t think we see them much until next year..
It will be interesting these next few games. I actually believe Chia has a trade ready to go in his back pocket if things go south again..
Nurse will be here by game 25 at the latest..
I think Miller got the recall as I believe his natural position is a center.. He also shoots right. I think Tmac values face off wins and wants possession.. I’m hoping Miller can help in this area and would not be surprised if he is on the PP.. Will be interesting to see how he lines up in practice..
I like JJ. I think his game translates well to the NHL
LT, you lost me on the 50 year-old photo you’re talking about. All I see is a weird McDavid shot and one from the farm.
As for the farm, nothing has ever changed with the Oilers and the farm. More often than not, if a player hasn’t made the big league before their first AHL season is over, they’re not going to make it as an NHL regular. There have been a few exceptions over the years (Van Allen, Pisani, Chimera) but other than Nurse, Draisaitl and maybe Brossoit, I don’t expect any of the kids currently in Bakersfield to ever be anything other than injury replacements.
Nurse isn’t that guy. As you know, it is VERY rare for a high first round selection to play a full AHL season, because they’re special players. I believe both men are such talents. The Oilers have put a plan in place, and I believe they are ignoring the evidence.
You may feel that Nurse needs a year in the AHL. I respectfully disagree.
Lowetide,
Personally I believe Nurse is more ready than Leon.
I want to see Leon put up points at the professional level. All this talk of how well he is playing sounds an awful lot like the same chatter from his NHL stint last year.
He needs to see results, for his own sake. He needs the confidence. I need to see him put up near a ppg pace over 20 games before I start thinking of bringing him up. Iiro and Miller are serviceable callups in the interim.
Reinhart has to have his rookie season on the 3rd pairing sometime. Sometime is NOW.
Long term cap management requires that you develop these guys, and then get them tied up long term early to reasonable deals (a la Nashville), so they will be value for money when they become 2nd pairing or better. A 3rd pairing spot this season HAS to be invested in Reinhart.
The market price for veteran D men on the open market is too high.
” 8. Before Edmonton lifted the weight of the world off its shoulders with weekend victories in Calgary and Vancouver, GM Peter Chiarelli said the 0-4 start would not mean rushing Darnell Nurse (or Leon Draisaitl) to the NHL. “We have a plan, and we are going to stick to it,” he said. ”
According to Elliotte Friedman’s 30 Thoughts.
Your point is valid but there is an explanation for this.. For years we abandoned a proper minor league system.
That is the one thing I give Tambo credit for. He revived the minors and it does take time for that to translate.
The second and most important reason that goes hand in hand with the minor league system was our drafting..
We were just awful at drafting. We are finally going to see the rewards from a strong draft with the 2013 draft.. I believe we see a few graduate from the draft and the farm very soon.
It takes time to draft and develop and fill the cupboard.. correctly..We are slowly getting there..
http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/78496/big_M500.JPG
Sophia…*sigh*
I agree. Nurse can help now.
Completely possible for Nurse to be the better player now and still be inthe AHL. Not mutually exclusive.
I can’t believe I haven’t used that photo before. Jesus.
I’d never seen it before either.
Sometimes I think there’s a storage room somewhere (a la Raiders of the Lost Ark) filled with risqué photos of beautiful women from the 1930s to the 1960s and they just scan a couple dozen every year to keep things interesting.
I want to work at that storage room, btw. Now THAT’S archiving!
I wasn’t on the board during the Nucks game but did I see Justin Schultz wearing an “A”? When did that happen? And…wow?
godot10,
A subtitle to this season might be: “Acclimatizing the last of the rookies”.
With all these gross contracts coming off the books, and a year of professional seasoning for Draisaitl, Reinhart, and Nurse, the team is poised to surge in ’16-’17.
Even if Reinhart isn’t perfect, the only way he’ll learn is by flying lots and lots of sorties. On this we agree.
Friedman’s thoughts (http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-reeling-blue-jackets-search-for-answers/) include plenty on the Blue Jackets looking for a defensive defenseman.
The closest we have to that might be Gryba.
Friedman brings up Gunnarsson with the Blues.
I have to think Columbus would look at that option in-season if only as a potential D-flip at the deadline.
Wasn’t it after Hendricks went to IR?
Exactly. Like we need Nurse’s introduction to the NHL to come under the duress of “you need to come here and fix it all because it’s a raging inferno!”
In Reinhart’s case I think the appropriate term might be “shooting down lots and lots of sorties”.
He’s kind of an anti-aircraft gun of defensemen right now.
It’s 2012 all over again!
Another item from Friedman’s thoughts, re: Crosby and pressure.
This might be something to keep in mind with McDavid as the years go on:
they can have fayne.
Loving Friedman’s thoughts today:
Suggested that before the Sat. game, something to watch for. Now Hartley needs to adjust.
I don’t know that they’d necessarily want him, except for a discount draft pick (2nd at best, more likely 3rd/4th).
Friedman also suggesting Kesler’s big contract could impact Ladd and Backes’s deals.
Blues are already close to the cap.
If they let Gunnarson go to FA and re-sign Backes, they are still close to the cap. WoI has them at $964,583 as of today.
If the cap goes down or stands pat next season, they could find themselves looking to exchange an established veteran D for a prospect/picks.
That’s how you get Shattenkirk, in my opinion.
Keith gone 4-6
Ring ring
Nikitin?
I doubt it.
The Oilers really don’t have anyone who could even remotely fill that role right now.
While I agree that’s a good long-term strategy for the Blues, I can’t imagine why they would trade a veteran D during their championship window, as they would only have to re-acquire one later in the season, likely at a higher cost.
I like the idea of trading Fayne, perhaps when Nurse is ready for full-time NHL duty. I have no problem with the player but I think you can get a similar type for far less than his salary.
LT, I’m normally very much aligned with your balanced perspective on all things Oilers. But I must disagree with your continual call for Nurse and LD to be moved up to the big club so quickly. This seems to be rooted in an urgency you have to shuffle players for optimal talent for striving for playoffs this year. Of course, having the best mix of players should be an objective always for a professional NHL club with the exception of proper player development. That is exclusive to that over arching objective in my opinion and has been a distasteful flaw of the Oilers way of doing things for too long.
Simply said, it does not matter that Nurse is better than our current set of defencemen, nor Leon and our forwards. What is imperative is that they are ready and have been well versed in how to play at the highest level. Don’t come with the raw tools. Bring the tools when they are married with experience and established and proven performance at the next level below. You must pull out that Ken Holland quote once more and re-read. Its about where the player is at in their development not how they stack up with any particular NHL’er. Nurse still has issues to work out. Leon does to and we saw those at TC and in previous auditions. It won’t be long before they arrive, but lets be true to the methodology we have professed and collectively (for the most part) endorsed, which is patient and methodical player development. This seems to be course corrected with new management but in the case of Nurse and Leon you are pounding the contrary drum pretty hard and consistently with a flawed rationale of how they compare with others.
On the contrary. Bloody difficult to think about hockey with photos of Sophia Loren in a basque on the page.
Reinhart not at practice?
Should probably include that I’m guessing it would happen during the summer when they may be re-setting the roster for the following season, rather than an in-season move – unless they hit the skids, then they may look at making roster changes.
Can’t wait to hear Spector talk about how he was “invisible at practice today”.
His SmilesOnTheWayIntoTheRink/60 is too low.
Lowetide,
May I suggest typing in “Boy on a Dolphin”. Bear in mind that this was in 1957.
Ranks up there, with one of the greatest posters ever.
Man, Pitlick. The luck this guy has.
I’m starting to think he was born under a bad sign.
I’d be happy with him spending half a season in the AHL with a return for the AHL playoffs. There is no reason to rush him to the majors right now, unless you think he makes the difference between them being a playoff team or not. I don’t think its reasonable to project the Oilers in the playoffs with Nurse.
There is no upside to rushing him, and plenty of downside. Defense is a tough position to learn
Look at some of the best D men in the league:
Keith 154 AHL games
Bouwmeester 84
Subban 74
Chara 71
Josi 74
Weber 46
OEL 25
There are lots of guys who were sent right to the NHL without stopping in the AHL, but many of them didn’t do much in their first year. Some struggled for a couple of years.
If Nurse is going to come up and struggle, then it really doesn’t help him or the team much.
A few days ago Bookje argued that MacT was a horrible GM because even if he made 80% of the right moves and 20% bad moves, that is the standard for a horrible GM.
I think Reinhart demonstrates how absurd a standard that is to hold someone too. I think Chiarelli has done largely a good job. I also think the Reinhart deal was terrible at the time and might look worse now. He was a guy whose upside was solid and whose downside was marginal NHL player and we traded an excellent first round pick and a high second round pick. That’s a dreadful trade.
That doesn’t mean Chiarelli is a terrible GM.
Reinhart banged up?
That’s an understatement.
Honestly, I hope the young man retires soon because his body is taking a beating and he has had now a few concussions.
I want him to have a long, productive life and the mileage he’s racking up isn’t going to help him long-term.
Kent Wilson Retweeted
TSN Hockey @TSNHockey 6m6 minutes ago
As per @DarrenDreger, forward Curtis Glencross is retiring from the game after nine #NHL seasons. #TSNHockey
Can’t remember who, but a poster who was at Sunday’s game mentioned GR had a huge collision at the end and wouldn’t be surprised if he got dinged.
This could be curtains for Pitlick.
This many concussions may be more than just bad luck – there could be a biological vulnerability here.
In which case, making the NHL may actually be the WORST possible thing to happen to the young man. An abbreviated NHL career may not be worth ruined health for the latter half of one’s life.
Both team and player have to serious start thinking about cutting bait now.
I wonder if the Oilers would trade Fayne for Tyutin. Both contracts are done after 17-18 season. It would save CBJ close to 1 million / year. Fayne is also younger (28) versus Tyutin (32).
That given I’m not sure Fayne meets their need – on the right side they have Savard, Prout & Goloubef. Is Fayne an upgrade over Prout? I’m not sure, maybe CBJ sees Fayne might fit for a defensive defender in the top 4.
Tyutin would have to wave his NTC (I believe) but Tyutin has been playing under 20 minutes this year and has played 17 & 15 minutes in the last two games. Tyutin has been passed by Ryan Murray and Jack Johnson. He might be a good fit on the Oilers.
With Tyutin the Oiler’s they could run – They could run Tyutin-Sekera-Klefbom-Schultz as their top 4. Run Davidson-Reinhart-Gryba as a 3rd pairing and by mid-year call up Nurse. The problem is it ties up a lot of money but it’s just 1 million more than Fayne …
From the Matty article: “Winger Tyler Pitlick, who can’t gain any traction because he keeps getting hurt, is now out with a concussion.”
He’s not gonna make it, is he?
– cuts to David Marcus solemnly shaking his head –
It’s not a dreadful trade. And we can’t assume it is until he reaches fives years, and those picks reach gives years.
Declaring so is not giving credit to either party.
But for the record, I think we won that trade.
Caramel Obvious,
” I also think the Reinhart deal was terrible at the time and might look worse now.” How can it look worse now, he’s only played 4 of 6 games?
stush18,
Agreed. Give me the D to fill the team’s void and 2 years of post-draft development. If he turns into a solid 4 or anchors the 3rd pairing who can pk and move up when needed behind Klef and Nurse I’d take that over rolling the dice with the picks based on where the team was at when the trade was made.
Today’s practice:
Klefbom-Schultz
Sekera-Fayne
Ference-Gryba
(Davidson rotating in)
closes eyes: “please no Ference, please not Ference, please not Ference”
Because before fans could entertain the delusion that he might turn into a first pairing defenseman, which many people here did. Before you could entertain the delusion that he was an NHL quality defenseman right now, which many people did.
But those were delusions that were contradicted by the evidence of the time (if he was so good why didn’t he play in the playoffs when the Islanders had so many injuries) and by the play so far this season (does anyone see any upside so far–beyond solid?).
That’s not the limit of the debate. Many people believed the pick(s) should be traded – but not for Reinhart.
Huh, guess who’s starting on the 3rd pairing tonight for Washington v Flames.
Taylor Chorney.
Hope he gets a hat-trick.
My favourite argument in support of the Reinhart trade is that the two years of post–draft development was somehow a plus which justifies some kind of premium. It ignores the fact that since Reinhart was drafted his stock had clearly fallen as he had been passed by no less than five defensemen (I forget the exact number but it is a lot) in his own draft class. Those two years of post draft development is also two years of information gained, information which should have let us know what Reinhart was and what he wasn’t. We know now that he isn’t going to be anything like the D Ducey listed above. We know that. It is a known known.
Woodguy Retweeted
Reid Wilkins @ReidWilkins 5m5 minutes ago
Hendricks does not have a broken foot.
Thought for sure he’d at least sprained it when he kicked the Flames’ arses.
JDi? Did you see this? Can you see the ledge now?
Edmonton Oilers Retweeted
NHL Public Relations @PR_NHL 7m7 minutes ago
Penalty Kill Percentage Leaders:
@PredsNHL: 92.8%
@AnaheimDucks: 91.7%
@CanadiensMTL: 90.5%
@EdmontonOilers: 89.5%
@Avalanche: 88.2%
Good things early on.
Now, about the pp…
He has a lot of upside from what I saw at the Canucks game, although I don’t see him as NHL ready. When his confidence and processing ramp up he has a full tool kit to use. He’s not going to be PK or Karlsson but how many are?
And do they actually contribute to winning as much as the steady 2 way guys who can skate and handle the puck?
Maybe TMac is just trying to get all the forwards’ scoring confidence going in practice?
LT, once again you snubbed Linus Omark when listing Barons players . He was a rookie that year and also made the NHL.
DANGER
Tyutin is a 32 year old Dman falling down the depth chart on a winless team struggling with defense. His contract is reasonably expensive with term.
That’s a whole handful of red flags right there.
Tyutin WAS a good Dman, we know this.
We don’t know if he IS a good Dman.
We do know he’s getting paid for a few more years; in those years we can’t afford any boat anchor deals or we could potentially lose an elite player.
Don’t do it.
Alright, time to start taking liberties on the other team’s stars.
Watched some of a CBJ game a few days ago. I was really impressed with Tyutin – he can flip the puck up to the linesman after the whistle like a boss. Like a BOSS!
Other than that, not so much, but it’s difficult to see him clearly, with all that tire smoke out there.
AHL didn’t consider him a rookie.
I think he should play 50 in the NHL, you’re saying 40. We basically agree.
It was a Matrix joke, my friend.
Because really, it only exists if you allow it.
Man, multiple concussions, the knee, the lacerated spleen…
If it wasn’t for freakishly bad luck the poor guy wouldn’t have any luck at all.
If this is curtains let’s hope he doesn’t break his collarbone getting caught in their closing.
Funny. I actually got it that night, and was trying to be creative in return, but I think instead it came off differently than I intended. Today I tried the Verizon parody, but I think generally the internet fails to catch my intonation.
Last night on the phone with a friend we discussed a kid’s destiny, and what we can and cannot control. As he wishes he could control his daughter’s interests and directions, so too I wish I could control the ledge.
Clearly I cannot because the Rhinos have failed to win again. Sorry Stevzie. 🙁
vishcosity,
We both wiffed on that one. I feel such shame.
O’Sullivan was answering questions on reddit earlier: https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/3pifzt/i_am_former_nhler_patrick_osullivan_here_to_take/
When asked about what went wrong for him in Edmonton:
Playing in Edmonton was a difficult experience for me for a number of reasons. The franchise was in turmoil when I was there so it wasn’t the most enjoyable stop in my career. I will say this, the city is a great hockey town and the fans deserve a good product on the ice.
He was then asked to clarify that statement:
I’m not here to tear down people or organizations, but look at the record that the franchise has had since 06′ and the roster turnover. I’ll let you decide what the problem was.
I think that implies a ‘thing or two’.
Exactly. This is what I was saying yesterday. 16 GA in 6 games isn’t too bad for a team learning that side of the game. 2.67 GA per game. The problem is the 12 GF, and much of the improvement will come by the way of the power play.
And I do believe it will come. I see the Oilers being around 215 GF and 215 GA this year so that about jives with the current GA. The GF will improve with the PP and with Eberle’s return.
Things are going kind of according to plan, I’d say.
Did anyone catch Remenda on MvsW last week passionately insisting that zone stats is the worst, most fictional and useless of all advanced stats? “I cam guarentee you there isn’t a coach in the league that considers zone starts.”
I was baffled. To me it is the one everyone agrees is real.
Does he think that D chart is an amazing coincidence?
And we tried. We offered that package for Hamilton, and were denied.
We talk like there were tons of options. Only idiot teams or contending teams trade away there young dmen.
What on gods green earth does barzal do for us? He doesn’t get us anything near a top dman, and neither will that pick.
The fact we got a high upside dman for a draft pick which does no good for likely two-three years is a steal in my eyes.
Boyd Gordon must be thinking, “Man, I had the worst luck last year. Seems like every time the coach called my name, puck was by our net. What a strange run of coincidence!”
Could anyone who had fun truly be said to have lost?
Yes. Yes they could. Alexandre Ovechkin taught me that.
stevezie,
I think Remenda doesn’t coach anymore.
This doesn’t even make any sense. Out of all the stats to pick on, this is what you go for?
I am glad you have come around to my position 🙂
I assumed that. Isn’t this kind of a big deal? Coach views JS as part of the leadership group of this team. That certainly wasn’t the assumption from this part of the world. More “predictable” choices would have been Fayne, Pouliot or Purcell and I’d have guessed even Lander, Letestu or even Gazdic before Schultz.
As Bruce mentioned the other day. There’s a disconnect on this player; we view him differently than the coaching staff (staffs now) do.
I cant remember where I read, but I’m sure it was Hitchcock who said one of the ways he measured successful teams was having a combined PK and PP of over 105.
You’re kidding right? That there were only two packages available for a first rounder in that draft? Come on…
And we could seriously debate whether Reinhart has “high upside”, but that’s another story.
I did! In August! 🙂
https://lowetide.ca/2015/08/17/re-15-16-darnell-nurse-please-please-please/
I have come to the conclusion that Justin Schultz is in possession of photos of Mr. Katz performing a Dutch Rudder on Klowe with MacT sitting in the corner awaiting his turn.
I see the Lebowski meme got taken down. Made me laugh to beat the band anyway.
I don’t love the Reinhart overpay. I think CO is clearly right that paying a premium for development that hasn’t gone great. The best way to justify the deal is the premium was paid for need.
We got something we needed.
I think slippery Lou said it’s never an overpay when you get something you need. I don’t know if that’s true, but I’ll agree it’s not a catastrophic loss.
I’ve liked the kid so far.
It’s always fascinating to watch two bright people disagree. But sometimes one of them keeps talking and you realize that’s not what’s happening.
Seems like a great guy though. Likable.
Best part of that AMA..
Q: “Worst chirp you’ve heard on the ice”
A: “Alex Burrows is a guy who thinks he’s clever but he’s not”
Whether he has been passed by other D in his draft class (which may or may not hold true in 2 years) is irrelevant to the trade. Relevant to his draft position for sure. The post-development was a plus. This team was/is in need of young D prospects now based on the forward cluster. D take longer to develop and paying a premium based on the overall make of the team made sense and had value. Is he going to fall into Ducey’s list of D? No. Would trading for Reilly, Lindholm, Trouba or Dumba been better? Yes. But you aren’t getting Reilly, Lindholm, Trouba or Dumba for the price that Chia paid for GR.
The team did not need a centre at #16 and I’m not sure what D left on the board there will be better than GR. What are the odds on a 33rd panning out? 35%? I agree BPA over drafting for need, but you can’t simply ignore need either. Behind Nurse there are a whole lot of wishes and prayers that one of them will turn into an NHL regular within 3 years, let alone bat higher than 7. The alternative is to keep shopping in the FA pool which is dicey and costly.
Straight up I’m sure it would be easier to find better trades, but in the context of what the team had – McD, Nuge, LD, Lander, Hall, Yak, Ebs, Poo, up front – and what was on the back end – Klef, Nurse and crickets it was a good trade for the club to make.
Most definitely.
Saddest part, was when I read that he doesn’t talk to anyone in his family any more.
dustrock,
G Money,
I’m sure it was the 3rd period collision with Prust…he stayed up but maybe a bit sore. He walked straight to the dressing room after that hit.
Ca$h-McMoney!,
How do you say “true dat” in Russian?
kooler,
His left shoulder might be sore.
Self-censorship.
In terms of Reinhart, I think the trade is ok, even if the 2nd was perhaps an unnecessarily high throw in. Griffin will continue to grow and should be a nicely solid contributor to the D over the next few years, although not top pairing potential in my book. I don’t lose sleep over Barzal. Perhaps a trade where both teams get something they want?
Having got past the Sophia Loren photo,……. I have always been surprised that the stats guys have not input more into the Reinhart deal. I always liked the deal once the initial shock passed and I like what I have seen of the player. From a stats perspective a second round pick has a 25% chance of playing 200 games; a mid tier first round pick 63%. GR will definitely play 200 games; meets a need now; and has upside – IMHO a better return than magic beans drafted by the Oilers scouts. (Ultimately we won’t know for a few years if it was a good trade, and even then we won’t likely know who the Oilers would have picked at 16, but still good to debate).
9 years of futility have conditioned we Oilers fans to overvalue draft picks.
That is something we all must keep in mind when trying to judge these trades.
Adam Wu,
Brayden Burke (not drafted) is performing about as well as Barzal to date in the WHL. Obviously it’s early, but it highlights the point that impressive Junior numbers can be over valued.
Kudos to LT for picking Burke in his mock draft by the way. He would have been a real steal for a late rounder. If he keeps this up he’ll go this year for sure.
The Blues will choose Shattenkirk over Backes. One of the main reasons Armstrong and Hitchcock moved Stastny to #1C this year. They are transitioning to post-Backes already.
The Blues have Berglund on LTIR and Sobotka stashed in the KHL, and Fabbri on wing. They also have Gomez and Brodziak. They will let Backes test the free agent market, and they might even trade him in season if they get an offer they can’t refuse.
I think it is too soon to say. IMHO it was a good trade. Let’s give Reinhart 50 games before we say it was a dreadful trade.
I think with time we will see that it was not an overpay.
I think Remenda may be confusing the statistical value of zone starts with the actual nature of zone starts.
There is lots of working floating around the fancystats world suggesting that ZS doesn’t have as big an impact on scoring and the Corgis as perhaps we often assume it does.
“Not as big an effect” of course is not the same as “No effect”!
In the actual game, ZS’s are quite important. The flaw is in the statistic (both in the way it is calculated, as well as the fact that shifts starting with faceoffs represent less than 50% of shift time for most players).
I find the same is true with Quality of Competition, which matters a great deal in-game, but our measurement ability for QoC is weak. Another flawed statistic.
Would you trade for? Or sign? Seems unnecessary.
Edit* this is why the oshie trade doesn’t make any sense to me. Hitch wanted a more North/south team, yet they’re willing to let backes walk.
G Money,
Is there any way to track how many shifts for a certain player start on the fly, and how many start with a faceoff?
Adam Wu,
9 years of futility have conditioned we Oilers fans to overvalue draft picks.
That is something we all must keep in mind when trying to judge these trades.
***********************************************************************************
Agreed. I would hate to see us use one of those overvalued draft picks for D-men….
UFA scrap heap is the way to build the D….
Sophia Loren, finally a topic worth fighting over!
To think all her photos are pre-photoshop era, crazy. In fact, just walked out of a restaurant in Rome (the one that invented Fettuccine Alfredo) and the signed snapshot of her eating there looks like a magazine cover.
We won’t know on Reinhart for at least another two years, defensemen take longer to develop. I’d consider him on the cusp of being ready, like Marincin last year. The concern is burning more ELC in development years, as its likely he gets expensive just as he gets really useful.
Re: Shattenkirk, if they were interested in moving him, the Blues would want Nurse, likely also Draisaitl and a high pick. Would any of us do that deal? Nobody is giving away first pairing defensemen.
Either FA, pre-FA trade or development is how we’re getting our first pairing D. All three require some patience. Nurse could be one if we don’t throw him into the deep end too early.
JDï™,
It certainly does imply a thing or two. He seems like quite a thoughtful and articulate person and his tact now is admirable. One regrets his bad luck to have fallen into the arms of franchise whose dysfunction was a profound as his off-ice problems. O’Sullivan must have felt like a drowning man looking for aid from a sinking ship . I hope that this was the extreme case but how many potentially useful players have the Oilers lost because they couldn’t or didn’t do much to help. That is damning.
the best milestone puck photos feature an old fashioned hockey smile.
This is a very good description of Reinhart’s style.
Yes, you can mine that out of the play by play and shift information. The pbp information has every faceoff time in it, and the shift information tells you the start and stop time of every player on ice, so it should not be difficult to calculate the intersection of the two and be able to say with certainty which shifts had faceoffs (and how many), and which shifts were purely on the fly.
Hmmm, now that I mull on it further, we have the following pieces of information:
– every player shift timing
– every recorded play by play event (hits, faceoffs, shots, penalties, give/takeaways) with zone recorded
So in theory, you *should* be able to estimate actual zone time by simply tallying up the number of events in each zone for each player as a percentage of the total.
There are typically 200 to 400 events recorded in a game, so in essence you are sampling the game for zone occurrence on average every 10 to 20 seconds.
You’d think that would give a more accurate estimate of zone time than ZS would.
Anyone know if this has been tried?
Might be worth an experiment.
I vote for a new picture of Scarlett Jo everyday,
or Eva Mendes
The work done by Megan Richardson during the 2014 Memorial Cup final was basically an advertisement for it.
Would that give you more useful information than just straight shot attempts as a proxy for zone time? I doubt a lot of time is spent in the neutral zone anyways and even the time spent there is perhaps less important than the events that happen there (zone transitions, takeaways, giveaway, etc.)
Edit: That said, I’d find it interesting to have a list of shift starts that include shifts on the fly in your post-game Nerd Alerts. (Note: I am literally sitting and drinking coffee while I attempt to create more work for you… however, I would think it to be interesting and may give more insight into McLellan’s usage.)
How many years before a D-man drafted with that pick makes it to the NHL? How many years before that pick actually becomes a top 4 option in the NHL?
Nurse was drafted 8th. He’s the real deal, we agree? Did he make into a top 4 spot the year he was drafted? Did he make it 3rd pairing the year he was drafted?
Time has intrinsic value, too.
Are you talking about that time Reinhart wasted in Edmonton, not developing? Apparently he’s done nothing but spin his wheels for the past three years.
Not his fault, he’s too slow to move. 🙂
I’ve liked Reinhart so far this season. He reminds me of Draisaitl in a sense. Neither of their games is particularly flashy, but you find yourself multiple times throughout a game thinking to yourself, “Damn that was a nice play.”
Draisaitl obviously has the bigger wow factor, but the simple idea of earning your space, using the time you create, and putting your linemates in a position to make a play applies. If Reinhart turns into Karl Alzner, which is not a distant chance, I won’t much care if Barzal turns into a top-6 C.
I would’ve preferred a more seasoned D with those picks to be sure, but we certainly got something of value out of that trade.
Irresistible forces and Immovable objects aren’t going anywhere fast when clearing and locking the porch.
NHL used to track zone time but stopped in 2002. I looked at a couple dozen game sheets like this one & in general it seems like 20-25% of time was played — or should I say, recorded — in the neutral zone. About 4-5 minutes per period in other words.
Reinhart kind of reminds me of broken Whitney. Just maybe a bit less skilled with the puck.
Has he had ankle problems at all? Or is that just his skating style?
That’s what would be interesting to see. The key here is data volume. The whole reason for working up the goals->shots->Fenwick->Corsi chain is the enormous jump in data volume as you go.
The idea here is to work up that same chain for zone time (not possession time mind you – zone time. Same contrast as ZS vs Corsi).
Faceoffs represent typically (by eye) about 25% of the data in the pbp. What you’d be doing is moving up the chain Faceoffs->All events and you basically quadruple the data volume you’re assessing.
I have all that data already – I have to parse out every individual shift in order to generate TOI for pairs, lines combos, etc. Printing it out would be dead simple. BUT! That’s a huge amount of data to add to the stream.
For example, here’s the shift chart for McDavid from the Calgary game. Now imagine repeating that for every player. Or were you thinking of something else? Maybe I should summarize shifts for each player (count, average, max).
Connor McDavid
Shift # 1 1 0:50 1:32
Shift # 2 1 2:56 4:05
Shift # 3 1 6:48 7:16
Shift # 4 1 9:27 10:14
Shift # 5 1 11:51 12:25
Shift # 6 1 14:23 15:11
Shift # 7 1 16:05 16:31
Shift # 8 1 18:34 19:32
Shift # 9 2 1:23 2:12
Shift # 10 2 4:23 5:11
Shift # 11 2 7:13 7:59
Shift # 12 2 10:21 11:19
Shift # 13 2 13:51 14:36
Shift # 14 3 0:27 1:21
Shift # 15 3 2:39 3:38
Shift # 16 3 4:14 4:55
Shift # 17 3 7:04 7:58
Shift # 18 3 10:11 10:46
Shift # 19 3 13:07 13:19
Shift # 20 3 15:17 15:30
Shift # 21 3 16:13 16:37
Shift # 22 3 18:01 18:36
Shift # 23 3 19:34 20:00
Shift # 24 4 0:30 1:07
Tanner Glass on waivers… I wonder if Tambi is still scouting for the Ducks?
G Money,
I was thinking something like this:
Shift starts:
Connor McDavid – OZ 6 NZ 4 DZ 1 On Fly 9
Edit: That would give proper context to the zone start data, especially if we’re using zone starts to give context to the CF%.
I would say he’s a marginally less skilled Whitney that actually knows his way around in the D zone, and uses his body a bit more. And not as good a passer as Ol’ Barbaro.
Would agree Reinhart has an awkward skating style. He rarely seems to bend his knees. I haven’t found Griff’s speed and quickness to be as painful to watch as Barbaro Version Whitney though. He’s just average, for the most part.
wheatnoil,
Cool idea. I’ll see what I can brew up.