WHATEVER HAPPENED TO HOMES AS OPPOSED TO HOUSES?

wheatnoil,

Cool idea. I’ll see what I can brew up.

Ribs:
Reinhart kind of reminds me of broken Whitney. Just maybe a bit less skilled with the puck.

Has he had ankle problems at all? Or is that just his skating style?

I would say he’s a marginally less skilled Whitney that actually knows his way around in the D zone, and uses his body a bit more. And not as good a passer as Ol’ Barbaro.

Would agree Reinhart has an awkward skating style. He rarely seems to bend his knees. I haven’t found Griff’s speed and quickness to be as painful to watch as Barbaro Version Whitney though. He’s just average, for the most part.

G Money,

I was thinking something like this:

Shift starts:
Connor McDavid – OZ 6 NZ 4 DZ 1 On Fly 9

Edit: That would give proper context to the zone start data, especially if we’re using zone starts to give context to the CF%.

Tanner Glass on waivers… I wonder if Tambi is still scouting for the Ducks?

wheatnoil: Would that give you more useful information than just straight shot attempts as a proxy for zone time? I doubt a lot of time is spent in the neutral zone anyways and even the time spent there is perhaps less important than the events that happen there (zone transitions, takeaways, giveaway, etc.)

That’s what would be interesting to see. The key here is data volume. The whole reason for working up the goals->shots->Fenwick->Corsi chain is the enormous jump in data volume as you go.

The idea here is to work up that same chain for zone time (not possession time mind you – zone time. Same contrast as ZS vs Corsi).

Faceoffs represent typically (by eye) about 25% of the data in the pbp. What you’d be doing is moving up the chain Faceoffs->All events and you basically quadruple the data volume you’re assessing.

wheatnoil: Edit: That said, I’d find it interesting to have a list of shift starts that include shifts on the fly in your post-game Nerd Alerts. (Note: I am literally sitting and drinking coffee while I attempt to create more work for you… however, I would think it to be interesting and may give more insight into McLellan’s usage.)

I have all that data already – I have to parse out every individual shift in order to generate TOI for pairs, lines combos, etc. Printing it out would be dead simple. BUT! That’s a huge amount of data to add to the stream.

For example, here’s the shift chart for McDavid from the Calgary game. Now imagine repeating that for every player. Or were you thinking of something else? Maybe I should summarize shifts for each player (count, average, max).

Connor McDavid
Shift # 1 1 0:50 1:32
Shift # 2 1 2:56 4:05
Shift # 3 1 6:48 7:16
Shift # 4 1 9:27 10:14
Shift # 5 1 11:51 12:25
Shift # 6 1 14:23 15:11
Shift # 7 1 16:05 16:31
Shift # 8 1 18:34 19:32
Shift # 9 2 1:23 2:12
Shift # 10 2 4:23 5:11
Shift # 11 2 7:13 7:59
Shift # 12 2 10:21 11:19
Shift # 13 2 13:51 14:36
Shift # 14 3 0:27 1:21
Shift # 15 3 2:39 3:38
Shift # 16 3 4:14 4:55
Shift # 17 3 7:04 7:58
Shift # 18 3 10:11 10:46
Shift # 19 3 13:07 13:19
Shift # 20 3 15:17 15:30
Shift # 21 3 16:13 16:37
Shift # 22 3 18:01 18:36
Shift # 23 3 19:34 20:00
Shift # 24 4 0:30 1:07

Reinhart kind of reminds me of broken Whitney. Just maybe a bit less skilled with the puck.

Has he had ankle problems at all? Or is that just his skating style?

wheatnoil: Would that give you more useful information than just straight shot attempts as a proxy for zone time? I doubt a lot of time is spent in the neutral zone anyways and even the time spent there is perhaps less important than the events that happen there (zone transitions, takeaways, giveaway, etc.)

NHL used to track zone time but stopped in 2002. I looked at a couple dozen game sheets like this one & in general it seems like 20-25% of time was played — or should I say, recorded — in the neutral zone. About 4-5 minutes per period in other words.

Lowetide: Not his fault, he’s too slow to move.

Irresistible forces and Immovable objects aren’t going anywhere fast when clearing and locking the porch.

I’ve liked Reinhart so far this season. He reminds me of Draisaitl in a sense. Neither of their games is particularly flashy, but you find yourself multiple times throughout a game thinking to yourself, “Damn that was a nice play.”

Draisaitl obviously has the bigger wow factor, but the simple idea of earning your space, using the time you create, and putting your linemates in a position to make a play applies. If Reinhart turns into Karl Alzner, which is not a distant chance, I won’t much care if Barzal turns into a top-6 C.

I would’ve preferred a more seasoned D with those picks to be sure, but we certainly got something of value out of that trade.

Lowetide: The work done by Megan Richardson during the 2014 Memorial Cup final was basically an advertisement for it.

Are you talking about that time Reinhart wasted in Edmonton, not developing? Apparently he’s done nothing but spin his wheels for the past three years.

McSorley33:
Adam Wu,

9 years of futility have conditioned we Oilers fans to overvalue draft picks.
That is something we all must keep in mind when trying to judge these trades.
***********************************************************************************
Agreed. I would hate to see us use one of those overvalued draft picks forD-men….

UFA scrap heap is the way to build the D….

How many years before a D-man drafted with that pick makes it to the NHL? How many years before that pick actually becomes a top 4 option in the NHL?

Nurse was drafted 8th. He’s the real deal, we agree? Did he make into a top 4 spot the year he was drafted? Did he make it 3rd pairing the year he was drafted?

Time has intrinsic value, too.

G Money:
Hmmm, now that I mull on it further, we have the following pieces of information:

– every player shift timing
– every recorded play by play event (hits, faceoffs, shots, penalties, give/takeaways) with zone recorded

So in theory, you *should* be able to estimate actual zone time by simply tallying up the number of events in each zone for each player as a percentage of the total.

There are typically 200 to 400 events recorded in a game, so in essence you are sampling the game for zone occurrence on average every 10 to 20 seconds.

You’d think that would give a more accurate estimate of zone time than ZS would.

Anyone know if this has been tried?

Might be worth an experiment.

Would that give you more useful information than just straight shot attempts as a proxy for zone time? I doubt a lot of time is spent in the neutral zone anyways and even the time spent there is perhaps less important than the events that happen there (zone transitions, takeaways, giveaway, etc.)

Edit: That said, I’d find it interesting to have a list of shift starts that include shifts on the fly in your post-game Nerd Alerts. (Note: I am literally sitting and drinking coffee while I attempt to create more work for you… however, I would think it to be interesting and may give more insight into McLellan’s usage.)

or Eva Mendes

I vote for a new picture of Scarlett Jo everyday,

Hmmm, now that I mull on it further, we have the following pieces of information:

– every player shift timing
– every recorded play by play event (hits, faceoffs, shots, penalties, give/takeaways) with zone recorded

So in theory, you *should* be able to estimate actual zone time by simply tallying up the number of events in each zone for each player as a percentage of the total.

There are typically 200 to 400 events recorded in a game, so in essence you are sampling the game for zone occurrence on average every 10 to 20 seconds.

You’d think that would give a more accurate estimate of zone time than ZS would.

Anyone know if this has been tried?

Might be worth an experiment.

JDï™:
G Money,

Is there any way to track how many shifts for a certain player start on the fly, and how many start with a faceoff?

Yes, you can mine that out of the play by play and shift information. The pbp information has every faceoff time in it, and the shift information tells you the start and stop time of every player on ice, so it should not be difficult to calculate the intersection of the two and be able to say with certainty which shifts had faceoffs (and how many), and which shifts were purely on the fly.

RexLibris: In Reinhart’s case I think the appropriate term might be “shooting down lots and lots of sorties”.

He’s kind of an anti-aircraft gun of defensemen right now.

This is a very good description of Reinhart’s style.

Lowetide: http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/78496/big_M500.JPG

the best milestone puck photos feature an old fashioned hockey smile.

JDï™,

It certainly does imply a thing or two. He seems like quite a thoughtful and articulate person and his tact now is admirable. One regrets his bad luck to have fallen into the arms of franchise whose dysfunction was a profound as his off-ice problems. O’Sullivan must have felt like a drowning man looking for aid from a sinking ship . I hope that this was the extreme case but how many potentially useful players have the Oilers lost because they couldn’t or didn’t do much to help. That is damning.

We won’t know on Reinhart for at least another two years, defensemen take longer to develop. I’d consider him on the cusp of being ready, like Marincin last year. The concern is burning more ELC in development years, as its likely he gets expensive just as he gets really useful.

Re: Shattenkirk, if they were interested in moving him, the Blues would want Nurse, likely also Draisaitl and a high pick. Would any of us do that deal? Nobody is giving away first pairing defensemen.

Either FA, pre-FA trade or development is how we’re getting our first pairing D. All three require some patience. Nurse could be one if we don’t throw him into the deep end too early.

Sophia Loren, finally a topic worth fighting over!

To think all her photos are pre-photoshop era, crazy. In fact, just walked out of a restaurant in Rome (the one that invented Fettuccine Alfredo) and the signed snapshot of her eating there looks like a magazine cover.

Adam Wu,

9 years of futility have conditioned we Oilers fans to overvalue draft picks.
That is something we all must keep in mind when trying to judge these trades.
***********************************************************************************
Agreed. I would hate to see us use one of those overvalued draft picks for D-men….

UFA scrap heap is the way to build the D….

G Money,

Is there any way to track how many shifts for a certain player start on the fly, and how many start with a faceoff?

godot10: The Blues will choose Shattenkirk over Backes.One of the main reasons Armstrong and Hitchcock moved Stastny to #1C this year.They are transitioning to post-Backes already.

The Blues have Berglund on LTIR and Sobotka stashed in the KHL, and Fabbri on wing.They also have Gomez and Brodziak. They will let Backes test the free agent market, and they might even trade him in season if they get an offer they can’t refuse.

Would you trade for? Or sign? Seems unnecessary.

Edit* this is why the oshie trade doesn’t make any sense to me. Hitch wanted a more North/south team, yet they’re willing to let backes walk.

stevezie: Did anyone catch Remenda on MvsW last week passionately insisting that zone stats is the worst, most fictional and useless of all advanced stats? “I cam guarentee you there isn’t a coach in the league that considers zone starts.”
I was baffled. To me it is the one everyone agrees is real.
Does he think that D chart is an amazing coincidence?

I think Remenda may be confusing the statistical value of zone starts with the actual nature of zone starts.

There is lots of working floating around the fancystats world suggesting that ZS doesn’t have as big an impact on scoring and the Corgis as perhaps we often assume it does.

“Not as big an effect” of course is not the same as “No effect”!

In the actual game, ZS’s are quite important. The flaw is in the statistic (both in the way it is calculated, as well as the fact that shifts starting with faceoffs represent less than 50% of shift time for most players).

I find the same is true with Quality of Competition, which matters a great deal in-game, but our measurement ability for QoC is weak. Another flawed statistic.

Caramel Obvious: I also think the Reinhart deal was terrible at the time and might look worse now. He was a guy whose upside was solid and whose downside was marginal NHL player and we traded an excellent first round pick and a high second round pick. That’s a dreadful trade.

I think it is too soon to say. IMHO it was a good trade. Let’s give Reinhart 50 games before we say it was a dreadful trade.
I think with time we will see that it was not an overpay.

RexLibris:
Friedman also suggesting Kesler’s big contract could impact Ladd and Backes’s deals.

Blues are already close to the cap.

If they let Gunnarson go to FA and re-sign Backes, they are still close to the cap. WoI has them at $964,583 as of today.

If the cap goes down or stands pat next season, they could find themselves looking to exchange an established veteran D for a prospect/picks.

That’s how you get Shattenkirk, in my opinion.

The Blues will choose Shattenkirk over Backes. One of the main reasons Armstrong and Hitchcock moved Stastny to #1C this year. They are transitioning to post-Backes already.

The Blues have Berglund on LTIR and Sobotka stashed in the KHL, and Fabbri on wing. They also have Gomez and Brodziak. They will let Backes test the free agent market, and they might even trade him in season if they get an offer they can’t refuse.

Adam Wu,

Brayden Burke (not drafted) is performing about as well as Barzal to date in the WHL. Obviously it’s early, but it highlights the point that impressive Junior numbers can be over valued.

Kudos to LT for picking Burke in his mock draft by the way. He would have been a real steal for a late rounder. If he keeps this up he’ll go this year for sure.

9 years of futility have conditioned we Oilers fans to overvalue draft picks.

That is something we all must keep in mind when trying to judge these trades.

Having got past the Sophia Loren photo,……. I have always been surprised that the stats guys have not input more into the Reinhart deal. I always liked the deal once the initial shock passed and I like what I have seen of the player. From a stats perspective a second round pick has a 25% chance of playing 200 games; a mid tier first round pick 63%. GR will definitely play 200 games; meets a need now; and has upside – IMHO a better return than magic beans drafted by the Oilers scouts. (Ultimately we won’t know for a few years if it was a good trade, and even then we won’t likely know who the Oilers would have picked at 16, but still good to debate).

stevezie: I see the Lebowski meme got taken down. Made me laugh to beat the band anyway.

Self-censorship.

In terms of Reinhart, I think the trade is ok, even if the 2nd was perhaps an unnecessarily high throw in. Griffin will continue to grow and should be a nicely solid contributor to the D over the next few years, although not top pairing potential in my book. I don’t lose sleep over Barzal. Perhaps a trade where both teams get something they want?

kooler,

His left shoulder might be sore.

Ca$h-McMoney!,

How do you say “true dat” in Russian?

dustrock,

G Money,

I’m sure it was the 3rd period collision with Prust…he stayed up but maybe a bit sore. He walked straight to the dressing room after that hit.

remlap: “Alex Burrows is a guy who thinks he’s clever but he’s not”

Most definitely.

Saddest part, was when I read that he doesn’t talk to anyone in his family any more.

Caramel Obvious: My favourite argument in support of the Reinhart trade is that the two years of post–draft development was somehow a plus which justifies some kind of premium.It ignores the fact that since Reinhart was drafted his stock had clearly fallen as he had been passed by no less than five defensemen (I forget the exact number but it is a lot) in his own draft class.Those two years of post draft development is also two years of information gained, information which should have let us know what Reinhart was and what he wasn’t.We know now that he isn’t going to be anything like the D Ducey listed above.We know that.It is a known known.

Whether he has been passed by other D in his draft class (which may or may not hold true in 2 years) is irrelevant to the trade. Relevant to his draft position for sure. The post-development was a plus. This team was/is in need of young D prospects now based on the forward cluster. D take longer to develop and paying a premium based on the overall make of the team made sense and had value. Is he going to fall into Ducey’s list of D? No. Would trading for Reilly, Lindholm, Trouba or Dumba been better? Yes. But you aren’t getting Reilly, Lindholm, Trouba or Dumba for the price that Chia paid for GR.

The team did not need a centre at #16 and I’m not sure what D left on the board there will be better than GR. What are the odds on a 33rd panning out? 35%? I agree BPA over drafting for need, but you can’t simply ignore need either. Behind Nurse there are a whole lot of wishes and prayers that one of them will turn into an NHL regular within 3 years, let alone bat higher than 7. The alternative is to keep shopping in the FA pool which is dicey and costly.

Straight up I’m sure it would be easier to find better trades, but in the context of what the team had – McD, Nuge, LD, Lander, Hall, Yak, Ebs, Poo, up front – and what was on the back end – Klef, Nurse and crickets it was a good trade for the club to make.

JDï™:
O’Sullivan was answering questions on reddit earlier: https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/3pifzt/i_am_former_nhler_patrick_osullivan_here_to_take/

When asked about what went wrong for him in Edmonton:

Playing in Edmonton was a difficult experience for me for a number of reasons. The franchise was in turmoil when I was there so it wasn’t the most enjoyable stop in my career. I will say this, the city is a great hockey town and the fans deserve a good product on the ice.

He was then asked to clarify that statement:

I’m not here to tear down people or organizations, but look at the record that the franchise has had since 06′ and the roster turnover. I’ll let you decide what the problem was.

I think that implies a ‘thing or two’.

Best part of that AMA..

Q: “Worst chirp you’ve heard on the ice”

A: “Alex Burrows is a guy who thinks he’s clever but he’s not”

oliveoilers:
stevezie,

I think Remenda doesn’t coach anymore.

It’s always fascinating to watch two bright people disagree. But sometimes one of them keeps talking and you realize that’s not what’s happening.

Seems like a great guy though. Likable.

I see the Lebowski meme got taken down. Made me laugh to beat the band anyway.

I don’t love the Reinhart overpay. I think CO is clearly right that paying a premium for development that hasn’t gone great. The best way to justify the deal is the premium was paid for need.

We got something we needed.

I think slippery Lou said it’s never an overpay when you get something you need. I don’t know if that’s true, but I’ll agree it’s not a catastrophic loss.

I’ve liked the kid so far.

knighttown: I assumed that. Isn’t this kind of a big deal? Coach views JS as part of the leadership group of this team. That certainly wasn’t the assumption from this part of the world. More “predictable” choices would have been Fayne, Pouliot or Purcell and I’d have guessed even Lander, Letestu or even Gazdic before Schultz.

As Bruce mentioned the other day. There’s a disconnect on this player; we view him differently than the coaching staff (staffs now) do.

I have come to the conclusion that Justin Schultz is in possession of photos of Mr. Katz performing a Dutch Rudder on Klowe with MacT sitting in the corner awaiting his turn.

stush18: And we tried. We offered that package for Hamilton, and were denied.

We talk like there were tons of options. Only idiot teams or contending teams trade away there young dmen.

What on gods green earth does barzal do for us? He doesn’t get us anything near a top dman, and neither will that pick.

The fact we got a high upside dman for a draft pick which does no good for likely two-three years is a steal in my eyes.

You’re kidding right? That there were only two packages available for a first rounder in that draft? Come on…

And we could seriously debate whether Reinhart has “high upside”, but that’s another story.

RexLibris:
Edmonton Oilers Retweeted
NHL Public Relations ‏@PR_NHL 7m7 minutes ago

Penalty Kill Percentage Leaders:
@PredsNHL: 92.8%
@AnaheimDucks: 91.7%
@CanadiensMTL: 90.5%
@EdmontonOilers: 89.5%
@Avalanche: 88.2%

Good things early on.

Now, about the pp…

I cant remember where I read, but I’m sure it was Hitchcock who said one of the ways he measured successful teams was having a combined PK and PP of over 105.

RexLibris: Wasn’t it after Hendricks went to IR?

I assumed that. Isn’t this kind of a big deal? Coach views JS as part of the leadership group of this team. That certainly wasn’t the assumption from this part of the world. More “predictable” choices would have been Fayne, Pouliot or Purcell and I’d have guessed even Lander, Letestu or even Gazdic before Schultz.

As Bruce mentioned the other day. There’s a disconnect on this player; we view him differently than the coaching staff (staffs now) do.

Lowetide: I think he should play 50 in the NHL, you’re saying 40. We basically agree.

I am glad you have come around to my position 🙂

stevezie: Did anyone catch Remenda on MvsW last week passionately insisting that zone stats is the worst, most fictional and useless of all advanced stats? “I cam guarentee you there isn’t a coach in the league that considers zone starts.”I was baffled. To me it is the one everyone agrees is real. Does he think that D chart is an amazing coincidence?

This doesn’t even make any sense. Out of all the stats to pick on, this is what you go for?

stevezie,

I think Remenda doesn’t coach anymore.

vishcosity: Clearly I cannot because the Rhinos have failed to win again. Sorry Stevzie

Could anyone who had fun truly be said to have lost?

Yes. Yes they could. Alexandre Ovechkin taught me that.