G7 2015-16: RED WINGS AT OILERS

by Lowetide

Connor McDavid is six games into his NHL career and he’s already made life better in Edmonton. For most of today, the good citizens of river city will go about their daily chores with a skip in their step and a song in their heart. It’s ridiculous, silly really. Men in their 50s (I can confirm) are not immune to the pure joy of anticipation, and tonight another ’60 minutes with Connor’ is on the evening schedule. Connor McDavid? He’s all that.

MCDAVID 2015-16 (SO FAR)

  • 5×5 points per 60: 2.18 (2nd among regular Oilers forwards—Nail No. 1)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 6.91 (1st among regular Oilers forward)
  • Corsi For 5×5 %: 49.3 (4th among regular Oilers forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 6th toughest among regular forwards (second-line opp)
  • Qual Team: 6th best teammates among regular forwards (second line)
  • Corsi Rel: 12.1 (4th best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 63.3%
  • Zone Finish: 66.7%
  • Faceoff Percentage: 26.6%
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 12/25%
  • Boxcars: 6GP, 3-2-5

Connor McDavid fights crime by forced tuning. Next stop: World domination. Bring on the Detroit wheels.

khaira ferguson3

MY KINDGOM FOR A FULL YEAR OF DEVELOPMENT

It looks like the Oilers are unable to get playing time for the prospects on their own team! Below are the current stats for the Bakersfield Condors, with minor-league veterans getting the strikethrough treatment:

  1. LD Brad Hunt 4GP, 0-6-6 (2GP, 0-6-6 this week)
  2. R Matt Ford 4GP, 3-1-4 (2GP, 3-1-4 this week)
  3. R Iiro Pakarinen 4GP, 1-2-3 (2GP, 1-1-2 this week)
  4. C-R Andrew Miller 4GP, 1-2-3 (2GP, 0-2-2 this week)
  5. C Jujhar Khaira 4GP, 0-2-2 (2GP, 0-2-2 this week)
  6. L Ryan Hamilton 3GP, 1-0-1 (2GP, 1-0-1 this week)
  7. C Phil McRae 4GP, 1-0-1 (2GP, 1-0-1 this week)
  8. L Mitch Moroz 4GP, 1-0-1 (2GP, 1-0-1 this week)
  9. C Bogdan Yakimov 4GP, 1-0-1 (2GP, 1-0-1 this week)
  10. L Braden Christoffer 4GP, 1-0-1 (2GP, 0-1-1 this week)
  11. C Leon Draisaitl 4GP, 0-1-1 (2GP, 0-1-1 this week)
  12. RD Jordan Oesterle 4GP, 0-1-1 (2GP, 0-1-1 this week)
  13. C Kyle Platzer 4GP, 0-1-1 (2GP, 0-1-1 this week)
  14. RD Joey Laleggia 2GP, 0-0-0 (2GP, 0-0-0 this week)
  15. LD David Musil 2GP, 0-0-0 (2GP, 0-0-0 this week)
  16. LD Darnell Nurse 2GP, 0-0-0 (2GP, 0-0-0 this week)
  17. RD Nick Pageau 2GP, 0-0-0 (2GP, 0-0-0 this week)
  18. L Kale Kessy 2GP, 0-0-0 (2GP, 0-0-0 this week)
  19. R Tyler Pitlick 2GP, 0-0-0 (DNP this week)
  20. L Josh Winquist 1GP, 0-0-0 (DNP this week)
  21. G Laurent Brossoit 3GP, 3.24 .910 (1GP, 4.62 .875 this week)
  22. G Eetu Laurikainen 1GP, 4.02 .818 (1GP, 4.02 .818 this week)

Peter Chiarelli, the man who kept David Krejci in the minors for the entire season age 20, at least made sure the kid had enough playing time to lead the team in scoring. The Bakersfield Condors (so far) are a major disappointment in my opinion. What in the hell does Brad Hunt or Matt Ford have to do with the future of the Edmonton Oilers?  I’m not worried about Darnell or Leon, hell it’s pretty obvious they’re doing extremely well, but not playing kids on entry-level deals a substantial amount is killing their development.

Since they folded the Edmonton Roadrunners, this organization hasn’t been able to wrestle back their own minor league team. Where is the disconnect? WHY are they playing Brad Hunt and Matt Ford like they have an NHL future? A few years ago, Mark Arcobello used his ECHL time to pass a bunch of prospects. How? The man was playing a lot and had a chance to develop skills and learn to play the pro game. Same with Josh Winquist a year ago, who sailed past other prospects.

The worst thing that can happen to an Oilers prospect? Get drafted high and get sent to the minors. Why? Some 25-year old veteran is going to eat your lunch because of course he can. This is NOT the Detroit model. Many blame the drafting, but the development side lacks at-bats. Fix this, Oilers. Now.

gernat ferguson 4

INJURY UPDATES

I waited a day because Jim Matheson did all the work finding out all about this (it is here):

  • Ben Scrivens will play one of the weekend games for the Condors.
  • Nikita Nikitin is practicing with the team, sounds like it may be a little while (work visa)
  • Martin Gernat, the forgotten bad, bad Slovak, is cleared for contact.
  • Dillon Simpson is on the way to Bakersfield and should be available soon.

https://twitter.com/HistoricalPics/status/656722046425018368

TIME ON ICE, OUT OF THE BLUE

EVENS (PER GAME)

  1. Justin Schultz 18:05
  2. Griffin Reinhart 17:11
  3. Oscar Klefbom 17:02
  4. Eric Gryba 16:58
  5. Brandon Davidson 16:11
  6. Andrej Sekera 15:25
  7. Andrew Ference 14:24
  8. Mark Fayne 13:39

PENALTY KILL (PER GAME)

  1. Oscar Klefbom 2:21
  2. Andrej Sekera 2:05
  3. Mark Fayne 2:02
  4. Justin Schultz 2:00
  5. Eric Gryba 1:13
  6. Griffin Reinhart 0:53
  7. Andrew Ference 0:48
  8. Brandon Davidson 0:48

POWER PLAY (PER GAME)

  1. Justin Schultz 3:20
  2. Andrej Sekera 2:04
  3. Oscar Klefbom 1:05
  4. Eric Gryba 0:02
  5. Griffin Reinhart 0:01

OVERALL (PER GAME)

  1. Justin Schultz 23:34
  2. Oscar Klefbom 20:29
  3. Andrej Sekera 19:35
  4. Eric Gryba 18:21
  5. Griffin Reinhart 18:06
  6. Brandon Davidson 16:51
  7. Mark Fayne 15:44
  8. Andrew Ference 15:12

Some fascinating information here, beginning with the fact Reinhart—Gryba has passed Mark Fayne at even strength and overall. Based on the actual TOI numbers, Edmonton’s LH depth chart is Klefbom, Sekera and Reinhart; on the RH side it’s Schultz, Gryba and Fayne. I don’t think Mark Fayne is going to be here a long time. Reinhart couldn’t make it for practice yesterday (banged up), and it looks like Andrew Ference will draw in if the rookie can’t go. Andrew Miller was getting time on the Nuge line, so that’s another change to look for this evening. While I’m at it, Edmonton is facing a team that doesn’t get a lot of shots—just 21.4 per game so far, many fewer than Edmonton at 26.8. If Z doesn’t go all Modano on their ass, the Oilers can win this game.

If I had to guess, my bet would be (based on above) we’ll see Klefbom, Schultz, Sekera, Gryba and Reinhart on this team opening night next year. Plus Nurse up from the farm and the impact defender they’re bringing in.

As the graph below shows, the Reinhart rookie season starts with the easy minutes and that makes sense. The one thing I can’t figure out is the Gryba—does McLellan truly like him this much, could we see Gryba with Sekera at some point, if and when Fayne is sent away? Don’t know.

war on ice defense

McLellan is finding a way for Justin Schultz to be productive in difficult circumstances (based on the evidence above). This isn’t 50 % with easy ZS’s, it’s 47.2% with tough ones and (according to this graph, I await Woodguy’s retort) he’s playing tougher opposition/difficult minutes. The downside? He hasn’t pissed a drop offensively, and I think McLellan will find this season that JS isn’t going to be worth the ask from his agent next summer. I’m sure many will disagree, and I’m trying to be very respectful here, but for me the money that Schultz is going to need isn’t worth the results—even the ones we’re seeing above. Too much evidence that his decision making and execution aren’t sponge-worthy.

This probably all changes with Torts on the scene, but if the Oilers planned to pump and dump Schultz now would be the time. Fayne may be of more interest now that they’re bringing the crazy out of Ohio full bore. Either way, I remain convinced the better plan TODAY is putting Klefbom and Sekera together as the top pairing. Big game tonight!

adams3

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A crazy busy morning on the radio, we start at 10, TSN1260.

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Oilers early days, McLellan’s approach, Hall’s stunning last two games and that kid what’s-his-name.
  • Mike Ringrose, Associate Coach of the Spruce Grove Saints and Director of Operations for Vimy Hockey. We’ll talk about the need for speed, and how to improve it.
  • George Malik, The Malik Report via Kukla’s Korner. The Red Wings without Babcock, Z leading the way.
  • Valérie Létourneau, on the eve of her UFC 193 title shot.
  • James Duthie, TSN. His new book ‘The Guy on the Left’ covers some fascinating moments in hockey history.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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stevezie

PhrankLee,

Well played

Bruce McCurdy

SwedishPoster:
Tonights puckgains:

Sekera: 2
Fayne: 3
Klef: 5
Schultz: 5
Ference: 3
Gryba:3

Klefbom was very good tonight. Schultz too, he’s clearly focused on the defensive side which hurts his offense but I think it’s the right end to start in.
Ference was surprisingly solid.

Glad to know I have some company over here in this alternate universe. 🙂

frjohnk

Ryan: Let’s hope that the results are skewed by the Dallas game and small sample size.

It would be a great feature if we could select which games we wanted to include instead of just date ranges.

Take out the Dallas game and it rises to 48.6%

This is how it looks so far.

DET 50.1
VAN 43
CGY 59.6
STL 38.9
DAL 35.9
NSH 51.9
STL 48.9

Ryan

Gerta Rauss:
http://oilers.nhl.com/club/podcastplayer.htm?pid=98&iid=52371

TMac postgame audio

“still need to work on game management”..”that comes with experience”

“Purcell played a hell of a game tonight”-TMac then commented that he needs to be smarter in late game situations referring to that late penalty

That’s one thing I like about Mclellan.

Here we have a veteran player with warts that many of us would like to fire into the sun or send down to the minors, yet Mclellan tries to just get the most out of what he has in front of him.

Ryan

striker:
As per War on Ice – sample size very small but…

Oilers 5v5 Score Adjusted CF% 46.4% (Ranked 25th) – PDO 99.3

Need more games to pile up before raising any alarms but that Oilers CF% is not encouraging.

Next 2 opponents

Wsh5v5 Score Adjusted CF% 55.5% (Ranked 4th) – PDO 103.3
LA5v5 Score Adjusted CF% 59.3% (Ranked 1st) – PDO 92.8

On the bright side

Cgy5v5 Score Adjusted CF% 42.4% (Ranked 29th) – PDO 94.1

Let’s hope that the results are skewed by the Dallas game and small sample size.

It would be a great feature if we could select which games we wanted to include instead of just date ranges.

oilswell

striker: The third rounder, the son of a facepuncher and the lazy russian are the ones who are worried…McDavid is chasing them down like Usain Bolt running down the home stretch and they can hear his breathing right behind them.

Panarin has a pretty nice track record and Larkin is in a great place because the Wings seem like they’re going to use him in offensive situations a LOT this season.

PhrankLee

Woodguy: We used to have bridge tournaments until LT kept throwing the cards when he lost.

And putting his cigar out in your face just for kicks and his bedroom window is made out of bricks..

theres oil in virginia

Wait a minute, 3 wins in a row!?!?! I’m not sure how to handle this. Has this ever happened before?

And here a few days ago I thought everything was on track for a normal Oilers season. You know, go ahead and get your first 11 game losing streak out of the way right up front and then take it from there. And now this.

All this uncertainty is unsettling.

Oh yeah, also ‘WOOT!’

stevezie

That was the best game i have every seen Yakupov play.

The bad news for Bruce is i completely agree with him as to Ference as well (He was good).

Yak and TCAF are two of the funnest people to cheer for and this was a fun game to watch.

It was really fun to have the goalie not give it away.

[…] stick check after nearly being caught flat-footed. Took one minor penalty, but as Lowetide aptly put it: “he got his money’s worth. Wallet, watch and pin […]

Zelepukin

LadiesloveSmid: RNH, Sekera, Schultz, McDavid all top 20 in takeaways in the league

Which in Nuge’s instance, is incredibly impressive because he is facing first line opposition on a nightly basis.

LadiesloveSmid

SwedishPoster:
Tonights puckgains:

Sekera: 2
Fayne: 3
Klef: 5
Schultz: 5
Ference: 3
Gryba:3

A lot of special teams so a slightly lower total tonight.
Klefbom was very good tonight. Schultz too, he’s clearly focused on the defensive side which hurts his offense but I think it’s the right end to start in.
Ference was surprisingly solid.

Yak! McDavid! Good goalie! WOOOT!

RNH, Sekera, Schultz, McDavid all top 20 in takeaways in the league

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&report=realtime&season=20152016&gameType=2&aggregate=0&pos=S

striker

TeeVee: Obviously you have not heard that “TMc the Impaler” has never heard of Corsi, Fenwick and other stats of the devil.

Oh right, I forgot, it’s all about “shot volume”

Well back to the website böök¡je suggested that I’ll be visiting after every Oilers win

http://gonestreaking.ca/

I disagree, it’s brilliant.

TeeVee

striker:
As per War on Ice – sample size very small but…

Oilers 5v5 Score Adjusted CF% 46.4% (Ranked 25th) – PDO 99.3

Need more games to pile up before raising any alarms but that Oilers CF% is not encouraging.

Next 2 opponents

Wsh5v5 Score Adjusted CF% 55.5% (Ranked 4th) – PDO 103.3
LA5v5 Score Adjusted CF% 59.3% (Ranked 1st) – PDO 92.8

On the bright side

Cgy5v5 Score Adjusted CF% 42.4% (Ranked 29th) – PDO 94.1

Obviously you have not heard that “TMc the Impaler” has never heard of Corsi, Fenwick and other stats of the devil.

striker

SwedishPoster: Behind a third rounder, the son of a facepuncher and a lazy russian. Should we be worried?

The third rounder, the son of a facepuncher and the lazy russian are the ones who are worried…McDavid is chasing them down like Usain Bolt running down the home stretch and they can hear his breathing right behind them.

böök¡je

TeeVee: Boozie

Yes?

Oh, sorry, that’s not me.

böök¡je

After that thing with the cat and the vacuum, I don’t get invited to play bridge anymore.

I always preferred crib anyway.

striker

As per War on Ice – sample size very small but…

Oilers 5v5 Score Adjusted CF% 46.4% (Ranked 25th) – PDO 99.3

Need more games to pile up before raising any alarms but that Oilers CF% is not encouraging.

Next 2 opponents

Wsh 5v5 Score Adjusted CF% 55.5% (Ranked 4th) – PDO 103.3
LA 5v5 Score Adjusted CF% 59.3% (Ranked 1st) – PDO 92.8

On the bright side

Cgy 5v5 Score Adjusted CF% 42.4% (Ranked 29th) – PDO 94.1

RexLibris

Lowetide: Keep your head up. That rule originated in crokinole.

You are the only man I’ve ever known who drew up rules for full-contact Gin/Rummy.

Just saying, that hooch you drink sure brings out the angry.

böök¡je

Was at the game tonight. Conner Magic looks even more impressive in real life. Wow are we in for something in this city.

böök¡je

Not sure if this has been posted here yet, but this is really worth a click – its awesome

http://gonestreaking.ca/

It’s not brilliant, but it is awesome.

SwedishPoster

striker:
Rookie Scoring Race

Player Game G A P
Duclair 65 27
Domi63 4 7
Panarin625 7
McDavid 742 6
Larkin6 24 6

Behind a third rounder, the son of a facepuncher and a lazy russian. Should we be worried?

Yeti

Gerta Rauss:
http://oilers.nhl.com/club/podcastplayer.htm?pid=98&iid=52371

TMac postgame audio

“still need to work on game management”..”that comes with experience”

“Purcell played a hell of a game tonight”-TMac then commented that he needs to be smarter in late game situations referring to that late penalty

Talking him up for the big trade 😉

striker

Rookie Scoring Race

Player Game G A P
Duclair 6 5 2 7
Domi 6 3 4 7
Panarin 6 2 5 7
McDavid 7 4 2 6
Larkin 6 2 4 6

böök¡je

Washingtron:
Just a rules question. On Nuge’s clearing near empty net goal went through the crease.I thought that erased the icing.No?

No

(I just went and checked the rule book)

SwedishPoster

Tonights puckgains:

Sekera: 2
Fayne: 3
Klef: 5
Schultz: 5
Ference: 3
Gryba:3

A lot of special teams so a slightly lower total tonight.
Klefbom was very good tonight. Schultz too, he’s clearly focused on the defensive side which hurts his offense but I think it’s the right end to start in.
Ference was surprisingly solid.

Yak! McDavid! Good goalie! WOOOT!

TeeVee

SwedishPoster: Guess he learned a thing or two from being in those lord of the ring movies.

Winner!

TeeVee

G Money: I posted this in that thread so long ago:

And it’s true.That’s why we’re here, and why we’re talking hockey and stats and other cool shit.

Because we are some of the most loyal and knowledgeable hockey fans in the entire fucking world.

And maybe, just maybe, the light at the end of this tunnel is not a train.

Boozie

striker

RexLibris: Hope they send down Slepyshev either before or immediately after. He needs to play.

Agree, Sleppy down to Cali to get his minutes and bring Pakirainen up.

Gerta Rauss

Washingtron:
Just a rules question. On Nuge’s clearing near empty net goal went through the crease.I thought that erased the icing.No?

Yeah, I questioned the same call-the puck hit the post iirc, I didn’t think it should have been icing but I must be overlooking something

Gerta Rauss

http://oilers.nhl.com/club/podcastplayer.htm?pid=98&iid=52371

TMac postgame audio

“still need to work on game management”..”that comes with experience”

“Purcell played a hell of a game tonight”-TMac then commented that he needs to be smarter in late game situations referring to that late penalty

N64

“Steve Smith”: Slow clap

“This year’s team is so good that I doubt it loses eleven straight all season!” is the most Oilers fan quote of all-time.

Only an Oil fan would use last year’s calendar to track progress.

3rd conference win last year? Jan. 9 2015.

SwedishPoster

BeerMe:
Letestu’s interview responses were actually a little interesting. Not the typical canned crap

Guess he learned a thing or two from being in those lord of the ring movies.

"Steve Smith"

hunter1909: If you include losses, then yes.

Slow clap

Pajamah: The Edmonton Oilers had 2, yes 2, separate 11 game losing streaks last season.

I just do not see that in this years team. I’m going out on a limb and saying I don’t even see 1 x 11 game losing streak this season.

“This year’s team is so good that I doubt it loses eleven straight all season!” is the most Oilers fan quote of all-time.

Johnny skid

Woodguy: We used to have bridge tournaments until LT kept throwing the cards when he lost.

thats not bridge thats called 52 pickup

Washingtron

Just a rules question. On Nuge’s clearing near empty net goal went through the crease. I thought that erased the icing. No?

G Money

JDï™:
Woodguy,

Halfwise,

Yet here we are.

I posted this in that thread so long ago:

G Money: See, this is the problem.

For their STUPID FUCKING DECISIONS, either Eakins or MacT or both deserve a 20-0 loss or worse tonight.

Rub their faces raw in their own titanic stupidity.

But Taylor Hall does not deserve that.Neither does Perron, Yak1, Hendricks, Gordon, Fasth, or Scrivens.It sure as hell wasn’t what Pouliot, Fayne, Nikitin, etc. signed up for.

And no matter how much we hate their on-ice play, even Ference and Jultz and Hunt don’t deserve it.

And it sure as hell isn’t what some of the most loyal and knowledgeable hockey fans in the entire fucking world deserve.

And it’s true. That’s why we’re here, and why we’re talking hockey and stats and other cool shit.

Because we are some of the most loyal and knowledgeable hockey fans in the entire fucking world.

And maybe, just maybe, the light at the end of this tunnel is not a train.

N64

Woodguy: We used to have bridge tournaments until LT kept throwing the cards when he lost.

Remember when Woodguy added a 0 to the Monopoly ten dollar bills and tried to pass them off as 100s. We called them Woodguys.

Good times.

RexLibris

Woodguy: We used to have bridge tournaments until LT kept throwing the cards when he lost.

Crokinole with him was no picnic either.

RexLibris

Woodguy:
Last one.

TOI against Zetterburg for everyone over 2min against him.Then Corsi For – Corsi Against

Oscar Klefbom 9:37 10-7
Justin Schultz 9:31 7-7
Taylor Hall 8:38 8-6
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 8:22 8-6
Andrew Miller 4:34 0-1
Connor McDavid 3:48 3-4
Eric Gryba 3:20 1-3
Mark Fayne 3:03 5-2
Rob Klinkhammer 2:58 4-3
Nail Yakupov2:56 2-4
Teddy Purcell 2:56 1-3
Benoit Pouliot 2:52 3-3
Anton Lander 2:47 1-3
Andrej Sekera 2:43 2-2
Mark Letestu 2:32 6-1 (!!)
Andrew Ference 2:23 1-3
Lauri Korpikoski 2:19 2-1

I set it at 2 min because after RNH’s line and Dreamy-Jultz he really spread it out.

That CF/CA line is incredible.

Zetterberg has been a possession darling for some time now.

Suspect the wings missed Datsyuk more than we are giving credit for.

All that aside, I’ll take the win and move on to the Capitals.

Two days to rest and practice.

Hope they send down Slepyshev either before or immediately after. He needs to play.

JD_Wry

Woodguy,

Halfwise,

Yet here we are.

N64

RexLibris: I guess the hypocrisy is what gets to me.

Not saying they need to ignore his improved play, but there was so much thrown at him night after night when it was fairly obvious that it wasn’t entirely his fault.

From listening to them you’d think he was on ice with Khan and defrosted to play with 97. It wasn’t Roy. It wasn’t Lander. Or even 97 It was soaking up and using any chance and any structure. Lots he’s late to learn but he gets more out of structure than most and if more would pepper and rush the net like him 97 could use them too.

JD_Wry
Woodguy

J-Bo:
Lowetide,

Wow! Quite a community!!

We used to have bridge tournaments until LT kept throwing the cards when he lost.

Woodguy

speeds,

I thought Ference had a better game than I was expecting.

I didn’t notice him bad and for him that’s a good thing.

Maybe a little humility put some jam back in his game.

G Money

Can you believe Yak only played 12 mins tonight?? Tough zone starts, and he puts up 2 points and positive Corsi. And he wasn’t a passenger. Man, I’m so happy for him.

YAK CITY B*TCH!!!

Woodguy

Last one.

TOI against Zetterburg for everyone over 2min against him. Then Corsi For – Corsi Against

Oscar Klefbom 9:37 10-7
Justin Schultz 9:31 7-7
Taylor Hall 8:38 8-6
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 8:22 8-6
Andrew Miller 4:34 0-1
Connor McDavid 3:48 3-4
Eric Gryba 3:20 1-3
Mark Fayne 3:03 5-2
Rob Klinkhammer 2:58 4-3
Nail Yakupov 2:56 2-4
Teddy Purcell 2:56 1-3
Benoit Pouliot 2:52 3-3
Anton Lander 2:47 1-3
Andrej Sekera 2:43 2-2
Mark Letestu 2:32 6-1 (!!)
Andrew Ference 2:23 1-3
Lauri Korpikoski 2:19 2-1

I set it at 2 min because after RNH’s line and Dreamy-Jultz he really spread it out.

Halfwise

JDï™: https://lowetide.ca/2014/10/14/oilers-at-kings-g3-2014-15/comment-page-1/#comments

1088 when Petry was scratched.

A Lowe point in the franchise history, eking out another self inflicted loss.

RexLibris

Matt Henderson Retweeted
Chris Wescott ‏@TheChrisWescott 4m4 minutes ago

“You can tell (Yakupov is) starting to step up in a leadership role, as far as leading the team offensively.” – #Oilers Mark Letestu

HELL YEAH!