The Edmonton Oilers won their third game in a row last night and the city is officially in a good mood. A lovely fall run of good weather, the Oilers beating down a decade of demons and the new golden boy providing shock and awe in prime time. It’s a party!
Pretty great look at McDavid’s body work on his goal against DET. Reminder: He’s 18-years-old. pic.twitter.com/shXTiETATd
— Pete Blackburn (@PeteBlackburn) October 22, 2015
Buddy did a nice job of interfering (Detroit did double and then some, so I don’t want to hear it) and then gaining clearance, and the deke was sublime. I suspect we’re in the Brett Callighen—BJ MacDonald era for 97’s linemates, but Nail Yakupov appears hellbent on hanging around for a long time. We’ll talk about 10 in a minute, but that was his finest game last night in the NHL imo. Man.
I took a selfie when I watch McDavid score goal tonight. Not bad for 18 years old 🙂 pic.twitter.com/8VZdCuMLzQ
— Jaromir Jagr (@68Jagr) October 22, 2015
Jaromir Jagr. I expect Chiarelli will trade for him at the deadline in 2018 for the Stanley run. I kid. Probably. The Oilers have had insane talent for some time, courtesy all those first-round picks. Connor McDavid is on another planet and seven games in I think we all know that’s true. It’s also correct to say we don’t have the enormity of the situation collected and assessed in our mind’s eye, but we’re getting there. Do his skates touch the ice?
LAST NIGHT’S DEFENSE IN A BOX
- Oscar Klefbom was exceptional last night, especially at evens. I like the visual and the numbers back it up, plus McLellan (imo correctly) has him doing PK instead of PP. Terrific talent. I think he’s going to be a 25-point man, but the defensive kicker will make him extremely valuable. So mobile.
- Andrew Ference was in a very good spot, playing with the McDavid line (7-4) for five minutes. Big time Ozone start and a possession number under 50, but with all that he had his best game in awhile. He might even get another start on Friday. Passing was off and he did have wobbly moments.
- Mark Fayne had a solid night, I thought he was slow to react on the goal (do something!) but the plays he made were the mark of reliable defensive defender. I remain concerned about his being paired with Sekera and am hopeful McLellan tries something new soon. Ovie coming to town tomorrow might be a good time to do it.
- Eric Gryba is growing on me. He’s the kind of player you have to watch for a time to appreciate, but he’s exactly what Chiarelli talked about in the summer. Good positioning, punishing checks and he was able to cut down sorties several times.
- Justin Schultz had a very good game. He had several effective defenses on stretch passes and most of that came from standing up on the play and tight coverage. His speed is a real advantage defensively and he broke up passes a few times. Really liked his game. He got an assist, that’s important because the offense also has to be there. Specific good moments included defending Z down low and forcing him to dish off, and helping Klefbom when it looked like Tatar was going to beat him and find clean air to the net.
- Andrej Sekera was effective despite the numbers above. Played 8 minutes against the Nyquist line and got ripped 5-10 in 5×5 Corsi events. Despite those numbers, I liked his coverage (even on the GA he was making good bets, Fayne imo was the culprit on the play) and he moved the puck well when given the opportunity. Along with Klefbom, the most complete defender on the roster.
LAST NIGHT’S CENTERS IN A BOX
- Connor McDavid has this habit of sussing out the situation before impacting a game. He was effective but not impactful early in the game, and then late in the first period did a blue bayou past a shocked Detroit defender. After that, it was golden, like he’d proven it to himself and he crashed through whatever false ceiling held him back. From that point on, he was breathtaking. The goal was sensational, the backchecking a sublime chaser, and the play where he somehow avoided a check and still kept possession? I’ll call that one impossible.
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins played 8.5 minutes against Z and fought him to a 6-6 draw. Skated miles, effective everywhere although the points didn’t come on this night. I believe that line would have cashed but the third winger is an issue for sure. W’s TOI: Klinkhammer 6:25 (6-8 5×5 CF events); Miller 6:45 (1-1); Letestu 38 seconds (3-0).
- Mark Letestu had another good game, scored a goal and could have had two but couldn’t cash on a gorgeous pass. I’ve heard ‘McDavid should have shot the puck’ and ‘Letestu isn’t skilled enough to cash there’ and both pov’s are wrong imo. It was a fast play, Letestu was skilled enough to get a shot off, and he missed. It was a good play that almost cashed, there’s no sin from either man.
- Anton Lander was more effective than the numbers above show, the third goal could have been his (although he didn’t touch the puck). He had the puck on his stick more 5×5 than in the recent past and he was around the puck more. I think he’s finding the range, should result in some points ahead.
LAST NIGHT’S WINGERS IN A BOX
- Benoit Pouliot had a good game, including an assists on the McDavid goal. He’s not as smooth as his linemates in terms of passing and vision, but he’s no slouch (two of his assists this season are highlight worthy) and brings other elements.
- Taylor Hall skated miles and had a ton of shots, not as many electric chances as in recent games. Nine minutes against the Z line is tough sledding and as mentioned above I don’t think that line has found a RW yet. Eberle can’t get back soon enough.
- Nail Yakupov was splendid. Two assists, confident, he was all over the ice and impacting play in all areas. I think it might have been his best NHL game. Before the evening began, he spoke to Gene Principe and it was heartening to see him confident, smiling and having fun. This is a business sure, but young Nail has spent some tough nights at Rexall, fun to see him being rewarded for hard work. Credit to Todd McLellan too, sometimes communication needs a different voice and the difference in Yak’s game is impressive. He still has some coverage issues, but that was a splendid game.
- Rob Klinkhammer is the best available option for the Nuge line it appears. He doesn’t bring enough offensively in the role but helps in other ways and I suspect we’ll see him Friday night. His speed is the big part of what he brings and he’ll battle for sure. Klink, Hendricks—that kind of player—is certainly on Peter Chiarelli’s shopping list. Add some skill to Hendricks and that’s the ticket.
- Anton Slepsyshev needs to adjust the sights on his rifle, but I love his speed. Shows up way more often in the frame than his TOI would suggest reasonable.
- Lauri Korpikoski’s numbers show what a nightmare the Nyquist line is these days, he had a much better night than the numbers suggest. Made a nice pass on Purcell’s goal and skated miles. He’s still a bit of an enigma, veterans don’t ice the puck as he did at the end of the game, but maybe he’s trying to do too much. He certainly is around the play a lot, that’s a good thing.
- Andrew Miller wasn’t noticeable often last night, he does have good speed and did use it to shut down lanes (against Z in the neutral zone iirc). Oilers need to give him a few games to settle in.
- Teddy Purcell scored a goal and was part of the Nyquist murders—but as with linemates Lander and Korpikoski, Purcell had to bend but did not break. 4-7 in six minutes against Nyquist isn’t horrible and once again we see the value of having veterans. He isn’t sexy because of the skating but is useful because of his skill and experience.
THE GOALIE
Cam Talbot was the first star in the game I saw. He is calm, effective, aggressive and owns a .920 SP for the Edmonton Oilers. Goalies are voodoo, a man got fired in Columbus the other day because of another collapse in the net by a perfectly good stopper. Credit to the Oilers (and Woodguy) for identifying the right man to target. They should probably start talking about numbers for a contract.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:
- Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Edmonton’s three-game winning streak, Yak, Corsi, heavy on the puck.
- Jeff Hauser, Radio Hauser. The song remains the same in the NFL power rankings.
- Jeff Krushell, Krush Sports. Fabulous AL series goes at least six.
- Frank Seravalli, TSN. Yakupov, changes in Columbus, panic on Shaganappi Trail.
10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. 90 minutes.
Imagine a pair of 18 year old boxers. For argument sake they’re 100% even in talent.
One of them studies boxing history, gets plenty of sleep because getting up at 430 AM to go running is hard.
The other one parties a little too much at times, and chases girls. He still does most of his roadwork, and to outsiders looks just as good as the other one.
There’s only 1 place available to go to the Olympics. The one who gets sleep beats the one who parties.
After the match, the losing side tells their boxer that he had “bad luck”.
My view is, in life, one makes one’s own “luck”. “Luck” is given to the one who, without anyone noticing, shows more dedication.
Most people never learn this lesson. Most people never achieve their goals either. They blame that on “getting bad luck”.
Last game, the Oilers by my eye had about 75 examples of “good luck” as they won races to the puck, got great saves from their goalie, and as the game grew on, were increasingly able to disrupt the Wings chances with stick work, etc.
Last season, Oilers wouldn’t have won so many races, the goalies were terrible, and the Wings would have won the game easily.
Huh, what, there’s an argument going on? All I read is comments about aliens and interventions.
Hey numbers guys – if the Oilers had last years save percentage, what would their record be now? Methinks 1-6? Point is, for all the hoopla about ‘looking better’ and ‘Connor’, it seems that goaltending is the most impactful area of improvement.
Washington will be a test – they can finish and have a really good goalie themselves.
Luck is luck – good or bad – always lurking around the corner. This year we look like the 2014-15 Flames with lots of things breaking right – last year everything went wrong. I have a little idea (won’t even try call it a theory) that good management, good coaching and effort can take best advantage of lady luck and lure her into your presence for a short time and compensate for a lack of talent. Bad management, bad coaching and poor effort lures in the dark side of the lady. If your team is screwed up – the chaos just overwhelms any good luck effects and emphasizes the bad. Bit of a play on the “you have to be good to be lucky” saw – but I’d adapt it to be “you have to good to take advantage of luck”.
We appear to be lucky so far this year – but we also have our junk together for the first time in ages – and lady lucks finally sees us a a decent date 🙂 But we better get more talent on the ice fast cause she’s a fickle girl as the Flames are finding out this season.
Sure.
Link to your post and/or others who mentioned Talbot before May 14, 2015.
I can also understand folks thinking “hey, I said Martin Jones was good” and if you want to go find it your previous verbal and post it here, music.
That.
Evidence.
This blog runs on evidence.
Talking out your ass is everywhere else, not here.
Busted!
In regard to this current argument, I’d like to say a few things. First, WG did a lot of work BEFORE Talbot was acquired and he looks good. I think he has every right to be proud of that, sure he is proud of it.
I can also understand folks thinking “hey, I said Martin Jones was good” and if you want to go find it your previous verbal and post it here, music.
—
Those things understood, I would request that the nastiness stops between all posters. There’s an individual who I’ve known since the hfboards days who emailed me not long ago saying he felt posting was no longer enjoyable because of exchanges like the one we’ve seen here this afternoon.
I love to read this guy’s posts, and he’s not doing it any longer. Please consider that when you have someone in your sights for a post, that’s someone who has value to the group.
Even if you don’t think so personally.
Thanks for reading.
We like to think he’s halfway back.
Hunter is halfway to Alpha Centauri.
Woodguy,
You seem rather angry.
He’s technically right. Most of us agreed that talbot, nuevirth, Jones, lack were all good upgrades on what we had.
No need to get snippy at him.
You commented that “all the posters had their favorite goalie”
I responded that I worked my ass off on a 3 part series on Talbot.
You responded that Sather didn’t have a blog.
You’re not Sather.
Get stuffed.
So…. he’s 1/4 horse?
Woodguy,
Glen Sather never had a blog so he doesn’t know much about hockey. Just because someone doesn’t have the time to post how they arrived at their conclusion doesn’t mean they are wrong.
So, if we have something we want to say to Mrs. LT without you interfering or deleting it before she sees it, we should just post it while you are busy with your radio show.
Ok, good to know. Thanks.
[We are good to go for the intervention everyone]
Glad Pakarinen is healthy enough to call up.
He was the one for this line once Hendricks went down, in my opinion.
He’s a shooter and plays a fairly straight-line game and is useful along the boards.
That line needs someone who can best emulate the cycle but also be competent for a shot on net when he gets the puck so that defenders have to focus on three potential scorers rather than two and a body.
Nah – first one I thought of.
I tried to resist making this comment, but realized Hunter would just go there anyway, so…
He’s already halfway to centaur. I’ll leave which half to the imagination.
It sounds old timey. Does Coach Fonzarelli live over that garage?
Deliberate pun?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magical_creatures_in_Harry_Potter#Firenze
Pakarinen up, Miller down.
He’ll join Woodguy and G Money on the first line.
Lowetidian get togethers need to be in LT’s Garage.
Note: LT’s Garage is a not yet realised hockey analytics ‘bar and grill’ to be located within walking distance of my house. I suggest Cash-Mc’G’Money handle the up front costs…
Everyone can simutaneously yell “Allan!” each and everytime LT enters and saunters over to his stool at the end of the bar.
And we could get girls to come as well! Maybe…
How about that Ference performance last night? I mean, he’s no OEL but he had a mostly quiet night and that’s a good thing – maybe even great, considering the context.
I think he got a 7 from Bruce.
If three scoring lines is a unicorn, what would Ference becoming a useful defender be? Centaur?
Mrs. Lowetide reads the posts. One day, maybe at Christmas, I’ll do a q. and a. between us. It goes something like this:
MrsLT: “While you were at the station some guy said you were wrong.”
LT: “Who? About what?”
MrsLT: “I don’t know, but he said you were wrong and then supplied a VERY long list with numbers and links. And then he added another post just like that, then a shorter one about 10 minutes later. they all had links.”
LT: “Oh. That’s Woodguy.”
MrsLT: “Maybe, you’ll have to look. And another guy said something and then everyone said he was crazy.”
LT: “Huh. Well, that could be anybody.”
Ca$h-McMoney!,
lol this is gold top to bottom:)
Noted.
rickithebear,
This is interesting.
Gmoney’s great game page shows this as well.
Waronice having historical shot location data is showing some of the nuance that corsi missed.
That’s not a slag on corsi, it’s still a great possession metric, but as the data gets better we can dig down deeper.
I think I would be Schultz. I could delve deeper and make this place even more enjoyable, but that’s allot of work.
When I do apply myself, I can be useful, and I do have some supporters who think I’m worthwhile. But most agree I don’t bring anything that can’t be duplicated at a cheaper price.
At least we’ve found this civilized place as a refuge where logic and reason prevail, as opposed to vitriol and condescension, because Lord knows there’s been a lot of that flying around.
Woodguy,
@cn_mills
Ca$h-McMoney!,
Ha!
What’s your twitter handle?
23/10 Was
31/10 Cal
03/11 Phi
All these games with the bad guys on back to back games.
An x,y range is needed to establish low; med and high chance shots. Any analytical presentation is needed for data use.
6 years ago I first looked at Goalie performance and realized goals are repesentative of D and Goalie performance.:
I used to review results team by team to estblish my data sets.
I have moved to War 0n ices defenition of low; med and high chance shots. it yeilds diffent % than mine my results but it is my new standard.
We See different Save % by goalie at even; PP; PK; Pulled goalie for each of the three shots.
Example: Even LCS avg goalie save% .967; HCS avg golie save% .833.
All said and done on average:
there are 29 shots/gm
14.5 Low chance shots were 16% of goals come from
8 Med chance shots were 32% of goals come from
7.5 high chance shots were 52% of goals come from.
84% of goals from 53.4% of shots.
Last nights game against detroit was a beutiful reflection of
Corsi versus Shots (shot volume)
and
shots versus shot density.
Shot density – Trying to release in x,y locations that yeild the highest shooting % results.
LCS (point-upper circles)
MCS (slot)
HCS (box)
From Det @ EDM
Det 70 corsi – 17 MS – 24 BS = 29 shots
EDM 43 corsi – 7 MS – 8 BS + 28 shots
by corsi Det is superior
by shots they are even.
Scoring chances for
Det 33
EDM 22
by this detroit is superior in its chance of scoring a goal.
However thi is not true.
Shots need to be broken down by strength and Density:
Edmonton faced
Strength – shots – LCG/LCS – MCG/MCS – HCG/HCS
Even – 18SH – 0/6 – 0/5 – 1/7
PK – 7SH – 0/5 – 0/2 – 0/0
PP – 1SH – 0/0 – 0/1 – 0/0
Pulled G – 3SH – 0/3 – 0/0 – 0/0
total 29 SH – 0/14 – 0/8 – 1/7
Expected goals from avg goalie
14 LCS: .462G
8 MCS: .624G
7 HCS: 1.169G
2.255 Goals
Det faced;
Strength – shots – LCG/LCS – MCG/MCS – HCG/HCS
Even – 21SH – 0/10 – 0/3 – 2/8
PK – 5SH – 0/1 – 0/3 – 1/1
PP – 1SH – 0/1 – 0/0– 0/0
total 28 SH – 0/12 – 0/6 – 1/9
Expected goals from avg goalie
12 LCS: .396
6 MCS: .468
9 HCS: .1.503
2.367 goals
Edmonton was superior in its chance of scoring a goal.
We faced an empty net situation that yeilded 3 more Shots of LC.
which increased the expected goals by .010
it was the diference between
DET 14 LCS and our 12 LCS.
Both teams gave up a Medium and High chance shot count of 15.
But Edmonton had a superior shot density with 9 HCS instead of detroits 7 HCS.
As a result by density the 15 shots should have created;
EDM .468 + 1.503 = 1.971 G
DET .624 + 1.169 = 1.793 G
the .178G is a significant diffrence over 82gm. A 14.6 GD for edmonton.
A team wants to direct pucks at net so they achieve the best Shot volume.
but you need to do it in a way that you achieve high Shot density.
Se Jordon Eberle.
Defensively you want d that have a low corsi/shot ratio when they are on the ice.
29/70 is damn good.
You want D that give up the lowest density of shots.
4 years in NJ Fayne was the best.
then sucked under Eakins and Nelson.
has pretty much returned to top 20 form under Tmac.
Goalie wise you want the best goalie at saving the 2 highest level density shots.
talbot is that goalie last 2 years.
Now what is not talked about is actual scorable shots.
All low; med and high chance shots can be broken down into open aclosed chance shots.
Even open:
LCG/LCS – MCG/MCS – HCG/HCS
Even closed:
LCG/LCS – MCG/MCS – HCG/HCS
at war on ice there is a collection of people like AT PFF that review and provide the data.
they need to define the shots into these groups.
Well, we’ve all remained fans of this team far longer than was either logical OR reasonable.
Woodguy,
Disagree. You and GMoney are quickly vaulting up in to the ultra-nerdy halls of internet hockey analytics blog rockstar status.
Why just the other day you retweeted me, and I excitedly turned to my wife and exclaimed “Cool, Woodguy just retweeted me” to which she (rightly perhaps) responded “Who?”
So I explained… to which her follow up response was “I don’t care”.
Still, people doing good work to advance our understanding of the game is something that’s widely appreciated in these parts, so I think the compliment stands.
Oh, I missed your 3 part series on why your choice was the best like I did at my blog about Talbot.
How’s your air-drumming? It better be up-to-snuff.
My name is Woodguy and I’m a Lowetidian.
I think Blues on Whyte with all the bikers, students, industrial workers, girl guides, and other mixed bag of music-lovers and those looking to drown their sorrows is a perfect spot.
We could hire a band to cover all the songs from the RE series.
I’m the McLellan? It’s the hair, right????????? THANKS A LOT, BARRY!!! 🙂 I kid. The great thing about G, Woodguy and others who bring this blog so much every day is that they are also here to learn and defend their position with logic and reason.
That’s what gives things value.
Woodguy,
So far it seems like if you said anyone but Scrivens, you would have been right. I don’t remember many Ramo pushers though. It seems like Neuvirth, Jones, Niemi, Anderson, and Talbot were the most common nominees, in no specific order, and all of them currently are a significant improvement over last years fiasco. LTs pick of Jones seems to be the early frontrunner, but the price given up and the small sample size makes it too early to call. But guess what. We were all right. YEaaaaay.
JDï™,
According to MSM, wouldn’t a get-together have to happen at someone’s parents house, in the basement, with lots of cheesies?
If that’s the sort of place (mostly) knowledgeable Oilers fans congregate, where the heck do CalgaryPuck commenters hang out?
Oh, right… The Saddledome.
Shades of Sather’s old line about Gretzky and a fire hydrant.
Well it is well known that I’m just a Flames-schill posing as an Oilers fan but…
😉
I think we’re beginning to see athletes with this kind of background find some support.
Thinking of guys like R.A. Dickey, Theoren Fleury and the one who probably started the modern movement, Sheldon Kennedy.
Even in the latter’s short time writing and speaking about his experiences, the support and understanding has grown substantially.
Speaking of getting booed when doing my best work, who was the poster who told me I was out to lunch on Talbot and that the Oilers should sign “just-passed-through-waivers” Ramo?
😀
Why would you say that? Who are these average fans that know nothing about hockey?
People that post comments on TSN or call into the radio are not the “average” fan IMO. they are blowhards that like to hear their own voice.
It’s got to be DSF’s patio – uninvited.
I appreciate the sentiment Barry but you’ve aimed too high.
I’m more like the Horcoff of the blog.
I’m a vet who knows where to go, but can’t always execute well.
I also get booed a lot, even when I’ve done good work.
Thanks Barry. You’re too kind sir.
Let’s be honest.
If we’re renting a space for this group there are only two appropriate sites- a church basement or a halfway house.
🙂