G8 2015-16: CAPITALS AT OILERS

by Lowetide

The 3-4-0 Edmonton Oilers have a chance to get back to .500 for the first time since opening night. It’s been an exciting week for fans, as the team delivered two terrific games and won a game in which they were clearly out of fuel and survived on guile—another indication this may actually be a brand new day. This season isn’t about the playoffs, so weeks like this one represent the best of 2015-16. It was a joy.

OILERS FORWARDS IN A BOX, GAMES 1-7

oil f oct 22What a fun set of numbers with a delightful group at the top. This is sorted by 5×5/60 and features a line with three men over 2.00/60 that isn’t the Hall—Nuge line! It’s enough to give us the vapors, this fantastic new trio doing so well in such a difficult situation. Sure they got the zone-start push and certainly McLellan found them clean air when possible, but we’ve seen this opportunity given in the past without the kind of numbers we see here.

The emergence of Yakupov gives Edmonton a strong bat beyond the heart of the order. When Eberle returns, Edmonton’s 1-6 slots in the order should be top drawer, and that’s formidable. There may be another gear (Leon awaits) but for this season two scoring lines gives the team far more opportunity to win every night.

Taylor Hall isn’t getting the ZS push and he (along with Nuge) isn’t delivering the kind of 5×5 offense we’re used to seeing, but it’s also true Jordan Eberle is out and the Oilers haven’t been able to find a suitable option for RW on the line since opening night. The Nuge-Hall duo has been doing a lot of heavy lifting and that has extreme value and will continue to have great importance. Matt Hendricks and Rob Klinkhammer have played on the line, and it looks like Todd McLellan would like a gritty type as the third man.

  • Todd McLellan: “I didn’t think that line (Miller with RNH and Hall) connected as well as I hoped. I don’t know if that’s Miller’s responsibility or not but I went back to a bigger body and liked Klink’s size and work on the boards.” Source

I take that to mean that we may well see Klinkhammer tonight, although Pakarinen is also an option. It’s also possible Pakarinen sits out and gets some practice time before being inserted into the lineup. One thing is becoming fairly clear: The offense stops after the top two lines, and McLellan’s Oilers are running two lines whose goal is to play the opposition to a standstill while the jacks and kings get a breather. Some of that may have to do with the faceoff issues and we may see Edmonton make a move in that regard during the year.

OILERS DEFENSE IN A BOX, GAMES 1-7

oil d oct 22This is sorted by Corsi for % 5×5 (I’m using hockeyanalysis and behind the net, as usual) and shows (I believe) the continuing emergence of young Mr. Klefbom. He leads in possession (Ference has been in only two games), has the toughest ZS and leads in 5×5/60. I don’t expect a lot of offense from the dream weaver, but that’s a nice start. His partner Justin Schultz is getting a far more difficult ZS than a year ago and the numbers are better than I would have thought—although the offense is off 5×5. Interesting pairing for sure, I wonder if we see a Klefbom—Sekera pairing if this team feels they have a chance to have a more substantial season.

Mark Fayne is a veteran defender but I get the feeling he’s the Ringo Starr of the top 4D. Tough ZS’s and opposition make these numbers better than they appear, but he’s not a puck mover and it limits his usefulness. Andrej Sekera struggled in early games, but I think he’s starting to find the range. Reasonable offense from the veteran as well, he’s my No. 2 D on this team (behind Klefbom) if there’s an expansion draft.

The final four (when healthy) appears to be ranked thusly: Gryba, Reinhart, Ference, Davidson. Reinhart is out for tonight according to Matty, so expect Andrew Ference.

TOP 20 UPDATE

My Top 20 Prospects list will kick off about one month from now, and there are enough games played in most leagues to start the discussion. The last major look we had at the group is here. Players who will be moving up are underlined, those who may move down are in italics. Still lots of time for players to move up and down, I’ll start the proceedings with No. 1 on this list (who will it be???) last week of November.

  1. C Connor McDavid NHLE: 82GP, 23-40-63 .768. Destination: NHL from opening night. So far, our man is 7GP, 4-2-6- in the NHL (.857), more in line with my RE projection (.886) but one gets the feeling this young man is going to post a special number.
  2. C Leon Draisaitl NHLE: 82GP, 15-26-41. Destination: NHL before Christmas. A strong training camp didn’t get him on the NHL roster, and he’s 4GP, 0-1-1 in the AHL currently. Leon’s arrival may be pushed back—they’ll want him to have success in the AHL before he gets the call—and one hopes he is getting substantial minutes in Bakersfield.
  3. D Darnell Nurse NHLE: 82GP, 7-16-23. Destination: NHL from opening night. Nurse didn’t make the opening night roster, as the team chose to run with Griffin Reinhart as their No. 5 defenseman. Based on reports from Bakersfield (4GP, 0-0-0), Nurse has been splendid there and in my opinion it’s only a matter of time.
  4. D Griffin Reinhart. NHLE: 82GP, 6-11-17. Destination: NHL by the trade deadline. He made the team out of camp (4GP, 0-0-0) and is injured currently. The Oilers are bringing him along in a rotation and it’ll be interesting to see how many games he plays in the first 20 this year.
  5. C Bogdan Yakimov. NHLE: 82GP, 10-13-23. Destination: AHL for 2015-16, with a cup of coffee in the NHL. Yakimov is 4GP, 1-0-1 entering this weekend’s AHL action and needs to improve on last year’s numbers (57GP, 12-16-28). It’s mighty crowded with Leon in Bakersfield, vital the Oilers make sure he’s getting the at-bats.
  6. W Iiro Pakarinen. NHLE: 82GP, 16-11-27. Destination: AHL to start, callups to the NHL early and often. Pakarinen’s combination of speed, skill and aggressiveness—plus a 4GP, 1-2-3 start—have him in the NHL tonight. He’s somewhat unique among the prospects and this is a major opportunity for him.
  7. C Kyle Platzer. NHLE: 82GP, 12-17-29. Destination: He’ll spend his rookie pro season in the AHL. He has started the season 4GP, 0-1-1 but is playing a secondary role based on (CHL stats estimates his ice time at less than 8 minutes per game) anecdotal evidence. He needs to play regularly.
  8. C-R Greg Chase. NHLE: 82GP, 8-16-24. Destination: AHL all year, with an NHL look-see possible. He’s off to a nice start in Norfolk (4GP, 2-1-3) of the ECHL and in my opinion Chase is in a much better spot than most of the Bakersfield kids who aren’t play much at all. Josh Winquist turned the same situation into a top 6F job in the AHL later in the season one year ago. Bet he passes Platzer at some point, these kids need to play.
  9. L Anton Slepyshev. NHLE: 82GP, 17-11-28. Destination: AHL marksman. One of the truly impressive stories this fall (6GP, 0-0-0), as he made the Oilers and has been impressive despite not playing a lot in most games. He’s averaging 8 minutes in those six games and has only three shots on goal so far. I expect he’ll see the lights of Bakersfield at some point—unless they find a way to use him more. We’re probably two weeks (or so) from Eberle’s return, so that might be the trigger.
  10. D Ethan Bear. NHLE: 82GP, 5-9-14. Destination: WHL all year, hopefully plenty of PP time. A fine start (8GP, 2-6-8, CHL Stats has his NHLE at 22 points) suggests a nice spike from last season’s point total may be on the way. Bear was great value where they got him in the draft, it’s nice to see a strong start.
  11. G Laurent Brossoit. Destination: A full season in Bakersfield as starter. Brossoit is 3, 3.24 .910 so far but the reports have been very strong on his overall performance. Edmonton’s goaltending woes have been covered off by outside procurement at the NHL level, but it’s going to be fun watching Brossoit push up from the minors. It’s been awhile since an Oilers AHL goalie had two good stoppers in front of him. I honestly can’t think of a recent example.
  12. D Joey Laleggia. NHLE: 82GP, 14-23-37. Destination: Full AHL season, possible recall if he flourishes. Laleggia is 4GP, 0-0-0 and has played a lot with Darnell Nurse, although that appears to have ended at some point last weekend (Musil). It would be interesting to see how much PP time he’s getting, that is a lot of his value.
  13. D Dillon Simpson. NHLE: 82GP, 2-9-11. Destination: Full AHL season. He spent the entirety of training camp injured, and hasn’t yet played a game. That is likely to change in the next couple of weeks, as reports have him in Bakersfield and soon ready. It’s a big season for Simpson, he has shown great year over year improvement in the past.
  14. G Eetu Laurikainen. Destination: Minor leagues for sure. He’s 1GP, 4.02 .818 so far, not great but one game is a wildly unfair measurement. I think the Oilers like him, their goalie situation has changed so much since the Oilers signed him.
  15. R Andrew Miller. NHLE: 82GP, 16-19-35. Destination: AHL to start, significant NHL time possible. Miller is off to a nice start in Bakersfield (4GP, 1-2-3) and got a one game look-see from Todd McLellan this week. I think he’ll get more recalls this year, his time is now and Miller is as ready as he’ll ever be.
  16. D Jordan Oesterle. NHLE: 82GP, 6-12-18. Destination: AHL all year, with a callup possible. Oesterle is 4GP, 0-1-1 and appears to be getting lots of playing time in Bakersfield. His speed keeps him in the prospect conversation and he could be the Condor who gets a call this year.
  17. D Caleb Jones. NHLE: 82GP, 2-5-7. Destination: Feature role in WHL with Portland. He’s 8GP, 1-3-4 (NHLE: 11 points according to CHL Stats) and based on TC this is a very mobile player. He was miscast (imo) by some pre-draft scouting reports, there’s more potential in Jones than was first implied.
  18. C Jujhar Khaira. NHLE: 82GP, 4-5-9. Destination: Full AHL season. He’s 4GP, 0-2-2 in Bakersfield and the organization appears to be higher on him now than in the past (and they liked him in the past). If Khaira can give this team any offense at all, he might have an NHL career in a bottom 6F role. This is an important year for him.
  19. R Tyler Pitlick. NHLE: 82GP, 8-16-24. Destination: NHL all season or the waiver wire/AHL. He played two games in Bakersfield before a concussion derailed him. Pitlick’s playing style fits Todd McLellan but he didn’t impress in TC (was given opportunities) and now we are here. Injuries have marred the young man’s career and he never did bring the offense from junior.
  20. D William Lagesson. NHLE: 82GP, 1-6-7. Destination: UMass and college hockey. He’s 3GP, 0-1-1 in college and reports have him off to a fine start. The college route means he’s tucked away for as many as four seasons, which will give the Oilers a chance to suss out all the other blue.
  21. D Ziyat Paigin. NHLE: 82GP, 2-2-4. Destination: KHL with more playing time. He played 9 minutes a night in 33 KHL games a year ago. This year, he’s been traded to Sochi, has played 10 games between two teams and is averaging 7:28 a night. He’s in the KHL, that’s good. Needs to play more.
  22. G Anders Nilsson. Destination: Backup goalie in the NHL. A strong start to his Oilers career (2GP, 1.98 .953) has fans buzzing—and for good reason! Obviously going to see a spike up the winter rankings, and points out the silliness of ranking goalies. Voodoo!
  23. D Ben Betker. NHLE: 82GP, 2-10-12. Destination: Full AHL season. He ended up in the ECHL (4GP, 0-0-0) and that’s good for the same reasons it benefits Greg Chase. Betker is a long ranger in terms of prospects, his combination of size and speed means the organization will be very patient with him.
  24. D Brandon Davidson. NHLE: 82GP, 3-4-7. Destination: AHL to start but could see significant NHL time. Davidson made the NHL roster and has played just one game. He looked good in it, has a nice range of skills without possessing any dominant trait. I suspect the Oilers see him as a solid 7D on their team beginning next year, so have him around because of waivers. He’ll get some action but it could be awhile before we see him two games in a row.
  25. D Brad Hunt. NHLE: 82GP, 11-19-30. Destination: Impact AHL defender, with a chance for recall. He’s a house on fire (4GP, 0-6-6) in Bakersfield so far, but reports have him giving up the puck a lot and spreading offense at both ends.
  26. L Kale Kessy. NHLE: 82GP, 8-8-16. Destination: A full AHL season. 2GP, 0-0-0 so far, the Condors have been running Mitch Moroz as their everyday enforcer.
  27. D David Musil. NHLE: 82GP, 1-7-8. Destination: Full AHL season, with a chance to make an NHL appearance. Musil is 4GP, 0-0-0 in Bakersfield, and farther from the NHL than he was a year ago—although we could have said that exact thing before he was called up in 2014-15. He’s a good defenseman, smart player. Speed kills, as does lack of it.
  28. D John Marino. Destination: Another season with the South Shore Kings. He ended up in the USHL (7GP, 1-4-5) where Marino made an immediate impact. The D chosen at the 2015 draft are a varied and fascinating group. No idea who (if anyone) makes it.
  29. G Zach Nagelvoort. Destination: Another seasons in the NCAA. His SP was .929 in his draft year, then fell to .906, lost the starting job to Steve Racine and we’ll see about this year. He’s 1GP, 2.05 and .905 so far, we’re early days.
  30. C Alexis Loiseau. NHLE: 82GP, 12-20-32. Destination: AHL/ECHL and a big pro chance. Signed to an AHL deal, Loiseau is one of this year’s Winquist’s and a nice bet. He’s 4GP, 0-1-1 in Norfolk so far, miles to go and we’ll see.
  31. R Tyler Vesel. NHLE: 82GP, 7-13-20. Destination: Another full season of NCAA hockey in Omaha. Young skill forward has played in a couple of exhibition games and we’ll see if he can capitalize on a good NCAA season one year ago.
  32. L Mitch Moroz. NHLE: 82GP, 3-3-6. Destination: Full AHL season. He’s 4GP, 1-0-1 so far in Bakersfield, meaning he’s getting the playing time that should have been made available last year. Moroz has a somewhat unique skill set, so will get a fast track if he can prove capable.
  33. L Evan Campbell. NHLE: 82GP, 7-8-15. Destination: UMass-Lowell and another NCAA season. Now 22, he’s 3GP, 1-3-4 and impressing in his junior year. His shot gets mentioned a lot, could be a key to his success in pro hockey.
  34. L Josh Winquist. NHLE: 82GP, 8-11-19. Destination: AHL all year, possibly ECHL if numbers dictate. He’s 1GP, 0-0-0 in Bakersfield and losing playing time to veterans like Ryan Hamilton and Matt Ford. Winquist showed great progress a year ago, needs at-bats.
  35. G Miroslav Svoboda. Destination: Somewhere in Czech Republic. He’s 7GP, 4.42 .867 in the Czech2 league, doesn’t look fabulous but who the hell knows. Best to assume we’ll never see him and then be pleasantly surprised if something moves.
  36. L Connor Rankin. NHLE: 82GP, 11-16-27. Destination: AHL/ECHL contract. Scoring winger is in Norfolk (ECHL) and hasn’t played yet.
  37. L Braden Christoffer. NHLE: 82GP, 9-11-20. Destination: AHL/ECHL contract. He’s now on a full NHL contract and 4GP, 0-1-1 in the AHL. The Oilers have a need for this kind of player and Christoffer has a big opportunity. He’s a pain in the neck, agitator. Bruins always have these guys, Oilers used to.
  38. L Aidan Muir. NHLE: 82GP, 4-6-10. Destination: Another NCAA season in Western Michigan. Big forward hasn’t played yet this year.
  39. G Ty Rimmer. Destination: Whatever’s left. He’s 4GP, 2.77 .925 in Norfolk, those are fabulous numbers. No idea if he gets anywhere but he can play.
  40. G KevEN Bouchard. Destination: Another QMJHL season with a SP in the .880s.  Bouchard is 6GP, 3.72 .874 so far, his best effort since being drafted came about two weeks ago. Had a shutout until late, couldn’t keep it.
  41. D Martin Gernat NHLE: 82GP, 1-7-8. Destination: ECHL, AHL or Europe. Just back skating after recovering from surgery, expect he’ll be in Norfolk when he’s ready to play.

REALITY CHECK

A lot (I mean A LOT) of chatter about the No. 1 PK in the NHL, but there are some things about this Oilers team people should know.

  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 45.5 (No. 28)
  • Fenwick for 5×5: 45.5 (No. 26)
  • PDO 5×5: 99.5
  • Shooting % 5×5: 6.9 (No. 20)
  • Save % 5×5: 92.57 (No. 19)
  • Goals for % 5×5: 43.5 (No. 21)
  • Shots for % 5×5: 45.3 (No. 25)
  • Source

hurdle gif

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun morning with lots of chatter across the wide world of sports! 10 o’clock, TSN1260:

  • Steve Lansky, Big Mouth Sports. Jays! McDavid! Weird Messier commercials!
  • Antony Bent, FC Edmonton. Eddies season, EPL, international play.
  • Brian King, NonStopSportsPicks. Eskimos weekend and prepping the playoffs.
  • Paul Almedia, SSE. McLellan’s importance to the Oil, Eskimos weekend.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. Talk soon!

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MacT's Neglected Helmet

They’re trending in the right direction. I don’t really care about playoffs. I don’t even really care about standings improvement this year. I just want more of a consistent effort.

zatch

The posession numbers I think are hurt by the Dallas game, where they were trash, and the Vancouver game, where they were gassed. Going to be till G10 I think before we have a more useful picture.

That said, still a team with major weaknesses and one that still needs a D upgrade. They can box out, but they can’t move the puck out worth a damn.

Ca$h-McMoney!

We got Nilsson for Liam Coughlin.

Maybe we can get Jack Eichel for Kevin Bouchard.

khildahl

What’s the over/under on Ference assists on Ovechkin goals tonight?

I’m hoping Washington is tired (another third game in four nights opponent) and the team can take advantage, but I wouldn’t be surprised by a loss tonight.

Woodguy

Corsi for 5×5 %: 45.5 (No. 28)
Fenwick for 5×5: 45.5 (No. 26)
PDO 5×5: 99.5
Shooting % 5×5: 6.9 (No. 20)
Save % 5×5: 92.57 (No. 19)
Goals for % 5×5: 43.5 (No. 21)
Shots for % 5×5: 45.3 (No. 25)

Truth.

They’re still digging out from playing STL and NAS 3 times already, but its not all sunshine and roses.

Oiler rank Scoring Chances Against/60 19th (27/60)
Oiler rank Scoring chances For/60 20th (24.2/60)

Oiler rank High Danger Scoring Chances Against/60 27th (12.5/60)
Oiler rank High Danger Scoring Chances For/60 23rd (9.2/60)

Early day and things are looking up, but there’s a lot of work to do.

Thank Gord the goalies are keeping them in games.

Talbot has played WAS 3 times.

March 29/14 – 4ga .867 loss
March 11/14 – 1ga .966 win
Dec 27/13 – 3ga .912 loss

WAS is on the scheduled loss of 2nd of back to back on the road and 3rd in 4 nights.

That being said they have a 5 day break after this game so there might be some “dig deep boys we got 5 days to rest after this one”…..and they’re good.

Should be a fun game to watch.

Going to the game with a friend, should be a good time.

Go Oilers!!!

*clap,clap*

Doug McLachlan

LT, I too am curious how they set things up once Eberle returns.

All summer I felt that Nuge and Eberle were a locked pair but Hall was not automatically on that line (as we all presumed that he would click with McDavid). While I was pushing for Yak to be with young #97, I too presumed it would be with Hall on the left wing. Any chance we see McLellan use Eberle’s return as an excuse to play with a Hall-Lander pairing in search of the mythical three scoring lines and other such unicorns?

Also, I know you say that the Playoffs should not be the goal for this season and that is realistic but I keep coming back to how weak our division, the Pacific, actually is.

Third place in the Pacific is NOT unattainable with an incomplete team like the Oilers. As long as nobody thinks that that is the end of the journey, I think that we could see it as a realistic target.

The goal is meaningful games coming down the stretch and those games will be meaningful because we are striving for that slot in the Stanley Tourney.

Go Oilers! Let’s get on that Caps back-up goalie!

PhrankLee

Awesome post, LT.

When I think about Yak Pou McD line the old joke comes to mind.

“Stand back, Eve. I don’t know how big this thing is gonna get!”

Game day! SkoOilers.

Dicky94

Yak is going to be flying tonight! Clear the track for the Yak! Two goals!

slopitch

I think if they can take each block of 10 games and improve in each set (not necessarily wins vs losses but moreso in gameplay) then the season may not be about the playoffs but it may just happen.

Go Oilers! Go Jays!

Woodguy

Oiler rank Scoring Chances Against/60 19th (27/60)

By Dman:

Oscar.Klefbom 23.19
Justin.Schultz 25.78
Griffin.Reinhart 25.96
Mark.Fayne 27.2
Andrew.Ference 27.23
Eric.Gryba 28
Andrej.Sekera 28.44
Brandon.Davidson 48.57

Oiler rank High Danger Scoring Chances Against/60 27th (12.5/60)

By Dman
Griffin.Reinhart 8.95
Oscar.Klefbom 9.48
Justin.Schultz 11.28
Mark.Fayne 12.09
Eric.Gryba 14.26
Andrej.Sekera 13.35
Andrew.Ference 18.85
Brandon.Davidson 29.89

Maybe Oscar can become that 1LD once Chia finds a real 1RD and then:

Dreamy-ChiaSpendingCapSpace
Sekera-Schultz
Nurse-Reinhart

That might work.

Yeti

> The final four (when healthy) appears to be ranked thusly: Gryba, Reinhart, Ference, Davidson. Reinhart is out for tonight according to Matty, so expect Andrew Ference.

If you’re not going to play him, isn’t it worth sending Davidson down so he can log some proper time in competitive games? Surely we’re not worried about the waivers thing right now?

Woogie63

The only goal is the play-offs, if this line up won’t get us there, PC should make a trade.

MacT's Neglected Helmet

“Any chance we see McLellan use Eberle’s return as an excuse to play with a Hall-Lander pairing in search of the mythical three scoring lines and other such unicorns?”

Unlikely.

Lander is being given the Boyd Gordon role. Seriously defensive zone starts. It would be a waste to anchor Hall in that same role. And, sure, you could start shifting that line forward with Hall on it… but then who else eats those tough minutes? The 4th line? The McDavid line?

The 3rd and 4th lines are offensive black holes, but getting Eberle and Hendricks back will help with that. So will replacing Purcell with Leon (or an acquisition!) closer to the trade deadline.

MacT's Neglected Helmet

Speaking of Teddy Purcell, it speaks volumes about what Todd & Pete think of him that they aren’t using him as Eberle’s short term replacement on the first line. The Oilers are missing their 1st and 4th RWs (Eberle and Hendricks) and he STILL isn’t being given the opportunity. And you know that they would love to pump and dump him too.

khildahl

Woodguy,

Using the numbers you just posted, we can see that while Ference isn’t allowing more scoring chances than anyone else (relative to the team), 69% of those he DOES allow are high danger.

Sixty-nine percent.

He needs to retire. Now.

Ca$h-McMoney!

Woodguy,

You could use the same metric to speculate on the possibility of Reihart at 1LD.

Also it’s even better when you consider that his primary partners (Ference and Gryba) have been worse than Klefbom’s primary partner (Schultz) by this metric.

Ca$h-McMoney!

mujidog,

Counter point:

The thing Hall is really good at is scoring on the rush, relative to his peers.

Scoring on the rush requires a defensive zonestart.

Hall’s talent is wasted with offensive zone starts.

rickithebear

Woodguy: roses.
Oiler rank Scoring Chances Against/60 19th (27/60)
Oiler rank Scoring chances For/60 20th (24.2/60)
Oiler rank High Danger Scoring Chances Against/60 27th (12.5/60)
Oiler rank High Danger Scoring Chances For/60 23rd (9.2/60)

What does even mean anymore?

Anything the Det EDM game showed is.
that
Corsi
and
Scoring Chances
and
Shots
are less reflective (acurate)
of offence (expected GF) and Defence (expected GA)
than good old +/-.
even to the point of being completely wrong.

Expected GF and GA are the true measure of Chance of Scoring.

Look at our PK:

Goal scoring rate is 2.6 times greater on PPexpected is 6.11 G/60

Gm – PKTOI – Golaie – LCG/LCS – MCG/MCS – HCG/HCS
#1 – 6.3min – T – 0/1 – 0/2 – 0/0
#2 – 3.2min – T – 0/0 – 0/2 – 0/0
#3 – 8.0min – N – 0/1 – 0/8 – 0/2
#4 – 3.5min – T – 0/0 – 0/0 – 1/2
#5 – 7.0min – T – 0/2 – 1/3 – 0/1
#6 – 2.3min – N – 0/1 – 0/0 – 0/2
#7 – 8.8min – T – 0/5 – 0/2 – 0/0
TTL – 39.1min – 0/10 – 1/17 – 1/7

keeping shots to perimeter.

Bar_Qu

With the implosion of the Flames and Ducks early in the season the Oil have a better chance to participate in the post season than I would have believed this summer. I’m encouraged by the better offensive play but the backend still need work if this is to come. We wait for the Nurse & a (t)raid on the weaker sisters of the league.

Woodguy

rickithebear,

What does even mean anymore?

Ummmm, scoring chances?

Shots at the net from the area right in front/tip etc are High Dander

Shots from the homeplate area in front of the net (including High Danger locations) are Scoring Chances.

Just like you like it ricki.

Sugar Reijo

The Caps having to come back in the third on the Nucks last night was the possible result for us. If the Oil can pounce early they might just go a little gentler into that good night knowing they already have a split on this back-to-back.

That’s not to say this one’s a gimme by any stretch. Excellent though the PK has been the Oil need to stay out of the box (Caps cruising at 27.8 on PP). Am hoping we see Grubauer instead of Holtby.

Win or lose, this one has the makings of an entertaining game. Ye Gords, I wish we played in the east.

PhrankLee

khildahl: Woodguy,
Using the numbers you just posted, we can see that while Ference isn’t allowing more scoring chances than anyone else, 69% of those he DOES allow are high danger.
Sixty-nine percent.
He needs to retire. Now.

As true as that is the only way out for Chia is the high-road.

He has to keep him on and use him when he can. Pay him his money and smile and thank him publicly and let him ride off into the sunset…etc.

TCAF is in the driver seat and they could do worse in terms of leadership. It’s time to see the new style of professional management.

I think Chia has a lot of tight rope walking to do with MacT still in the organization. He can’t talk candidly in public about how shitty some of these players are or how shitty their contracts are…without implying MacT is/was incapable of assessing talent. ….Awkward…

It’s been a black hole for info since NN got demoted. Vague “visa issues” have been sighted…But I haven’t heard anything substantive.

McD shines so bright it really hides a lot of what is still troubling about the club and the team.

Woodguy

Ca$h-McMoney!: 23rd (9.2/60)

He may eventually by Klef is ahead of him right now.

Klef also has the skating ability to play against the best.

Hopefully Griff improves his wheels. Pelletier should be able to help.

Ca$h-McMoney!

Woodguy,

Oh I agree, Klef is better, I was just pointing out that the stats you picked to illustrate your point also paint a glowing picture of Mr. Reinhart.

khildahl

Woodguy:

Shots at the net from the area right in front/tip etc are High Dander

So TMac just needs to give the d-men some Benadryl and it will fix everything?

N64

rickithebear: Oiler rank High Danger Scoring Chances Against/60 27th (12.5/60)
Oiler rank High Danger Scoring Chances For/60 23rd (9.2/60)
What does even mean anymore?

Um. About keeping shots to the perimeter and boxing out rebound attempts:

http://blog.war-on-ice.com/new-defining-scoring-chances/

khildahl

The interesting thing to me in those scoring chance numbers is Schultz. He’s not far behind Klefbom by this metric. It seems to back up the seen-him-better trend.

RexLibris

Don’t have time now, but this could be interesting: Travis Yost ‏@travisyost 4m4 minutes ago

Podcast w/ @DimFilipovic in which we grade the watchability of every NHL team — http://bit.ly/1R18Lmr

bendelson

Well… my self-imposed boycott (2 yrs) of Rexall Place ends tonight and I have to say, I’m pretty excited about it. Yes, McDavid really did change everything.

It should be a very entertaining game.
Oilers 5-3.

N64

Woodguy: By Dman
Griffin.Reinhart 8.95
Oscar.Klefbom 9.48
Justin.Schultz 11.28
Mark.Fayne 12.09
Eric.Gryba 14.26
Andrej.Sekera 13.35
Andrew.Ference 18.85
Brandon.Davidson 29.89

You can see why it took exactly one rotation through Reinhart, Ference, and Davidson to pick one.

blainer

LT very happy to see that you addressed the faceoff problem as did our wonderful new coach.

We are currently 29th in faceoff%.

Now we have debated faceoffs and possession on here many times especially in terms of Corsi. While I can live with losing faceoffs in the Neutral zone 5×5.. it kills our special teams. It just goes to show your best penalty killer is the goaltender and we are proving that so far..

I also think it is hurting our PP.. that and lack of a good QB..

If we want those possession numbers to get better we need to start WINING more faceoffs.

G Money

Woodguy,
bendelson,

Pssssht. Sign one generational player, and here’s you arrogant Tier One fans, lording it over the rest of us.

N64

Woodguy: Shots at the net from the area right in front/tip etc are High Dander

Named I believe for what they do to the coach.

rickithebear

In recent years on PK
avg /gm
PKTOI 5.86
Goals .638
Saves 4.438
Shots 5.076

Low chances:
shots 2.24
Save% .9349
Med Chance:
shots 1.31
Save% .8731
High chance:
shots 1.51
Save % .7845

US: 7 gm
39.1min 0/10 – 1/17 – 1/7
PK TOI expected 41.02 actual 39.1min
LCS;
shots expected 14.95 actual 10
Goals expected (14.95 X .9349) – 14.95 = .973 G
Actual save% 0 actual g/10 = 1.000
MCS:
shots expected 8.74 actual 17
Goals expected (8.74 X .8730) -8. = 2.159 G
Save% 1 actual G/17 = .9412
HCS:
shots expected 1.51 X 7 = 10.57 Actual 7
Goals expected (10.57 X .7845) – 10.57 = 2.278 G
Save% 1 actual goal/7 = .8571

blainer

Woodguy:
Oiler rank Scoring Chances Against/60 19th (27/60)

By Dman:

Oscar.Klefbom23.19
Justin.Schultz25.78
Griffin.Reinhart25.96
Mark.Fayne27.2
Andrew.Ference27.23
Eric.Gryba28
Andrej.Sekera28.44
Brandon.Davidson48.57

Oiler rank High Danger Scoring Chances Against/60 27th (12.5/60)

By Dman
Griffin.Reinhart8.95
Oscar.Klefbom9.48
Justin.Schultz11.28
Mark.Fayne12.09
Eric.Gryba14.26
Andrej.Sekera13.35
Andrew.Ference18.85
Brandon.Davidson29.89

Maybe Oscar can become that 1LD once Chia finds a real 1RD and then:

Dreamy-ChiaSpendingCapSpace
Sekera-Schultz
Nurse-Reinhart

That might work.

I’m hoping for Burns at the trade deadline.. A lot of things need to go right.. like the sharks all of a sudden get shitty goaltending and the oil stay in the hunt until the deadline..

One can always hope..

PDO

Hey guys remember when we got McDavid?

Incredible.

18 years old and he’s already making borderline hall of famer like Richards look awful.

bendelson

G Money:
Woodguy,
bendelson,

Pssssht.Sign one generational player, and here’s you arrogant Tier One fans, lording it over the rest of us.

Seriously, GMoney? You don’t fly in for the games?

McSorley33

mujidog,

Speaking of Teddy Purcell, it speaks volumes about what Todd & Pete think of him that they aren’t using him as Eberle’s short term replacement on the first line. The Oilers are missing their 1st and 4th RWs (Eberle and Hendricks) and he STILL isn’t being given the opportunity. And you know that they would love to pump and dump him too.
***************************************************************
Agreed on Purcell…I think Yzerman found the only NHL team willing to take on Purcell.

How about what the Organization thinks of Anton Lander….what does it mean if Leon is sent down to learn how to play C ( the 200 ft. version )

I speculate Lander is going to be a winger at some point. I think Anton may not have the wheels for C…I see nothing wrong with a tandem of LD / Lander.

Again just speculation on my part…

Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons

Why is corsi used to evaluate D?
D have limited control over that metric of the game.
Zone start, qual-comp and HSCA make more sense, imo.

Jultz’s chaos has been contained and my guess is that has a lot to do with Klef. A Sekera-Klef pairing is a bit like robbing Peter to pay Paul but Peter is flat broke and Fat Tony is at the door.

RexLibris

bendelson: Seriously, GMoney?You don’t fly in for the games?

G’s kind of an inverted fairweather fan.

He only goes in for teams that force the fans to suffer.

He’s all about the Flames now.

dustrock

We can talk about the bad Corgis from the Blues, Preds, and Stars, but the Corgis looked horrendous against the Wings, and as Ricki said, this seems like a situation where they don’t reflect the actual games.

https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/10/21/g7-2015-10-21-oilers-vs-red-wings-shot-and-distance-data/

I like scoring chances and shot distance more at this point.

RexLibris

I’m going to start the countdown effective today on media members discounting Yakupov’s performance by saying that McDavid is so good he could make anyone look like an All-Star.

I know he’s getting some love in the MSM right now, but I’m seeing a lot of couched terms and backhanded compliments. Suspect if that line goes a little cold they won’t be calling for Pouliot to be moved off it, but the enigmatic Russian, despite most evidence showing that it is #s 10 and 97 which are clicking while the veteran appears to be a little lost.

Pouzar

RexLibris,

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1684&withagainst=true&season=2015-16&sit=5v5

Nail is 53.5% with McDavid and 37.2% without.

Not sure how up to date that source is.

bendelson

RexLibris,

I look forward to the “anybody could have scored 30+ goals playing with McDavid” comments.

blainer

Pouzar:
RexLibris,

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1684&withagainst=true&season=2015-16&sit=5v5

Nail is 53.5% with McDavid and 37.2% without.

Not sure how up to date that source is.

Funny how everybody was always saying that Yak needs to play with a talented Center.. He is making Yak look good and you know how I feel about Yak..

Lets hope they can keep it goin..

böök¡je

Woodguy:
They’re still digging out from playing STL and NAS 3 times already, but its not all sunshine and roses.

Fuck you böök¡je, it IS all sunshine and roses and playoffs and more.

linkfromhyrule

Pouzar:
RexLibris,

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1684&withagainst=true&season=2015-16&sit=5v5

Nail is 53.5% with McDavid and 37.2% without.

Not sure how up to date that source is.

To be fair, McDavid is also 46.4% away from Yak. Not quite as substantial, but a drop nonetheless.

It will be very interesting to see our #1 ranked PK (for now) go up against the Caps #3 ranked PP. This will be a real test, and of course we stand a better chance against a tired team on the road.

Ovechkin is always dangerous, and they should assign someone to shadow him as much as possible in the Ozone. He is excellent at finding the open ice (take note, Nail!!), and they need to limit that as much as possible.

N64

RexLibris:
Don’t have time now, but this could be interesting: Travis Yost ‏@travisyost 4m4 minutes ago

Podcast w/ @DimFilipovic in which we grade the watchability of every NHL team — http://bit.ly/1R18Lmr

Oilers made #13 without any comments about the Oilers in the segment.

spoiler

RexLibris:
I’m going to start the countdown effective today on media members discounting Yakupov’s performance by saying that McDavid is so good he could make anyone look like an All-Star.

I know he’s getting some love in the MSM right now, but I’m seeing a lot of couched terms and backhanded compliments. Suspect if that line goes a little cold they won’t be calling for Pouliot to be moved off it, but the enigmatic Russian, despite most evidence showing that it is #s 10 and 97 which are clicking while the veteran appears to be a little lost.

And my personal favourite, the damning with faint praise.

stevezie

bendelson,

Ironically it was Yak who used his linemateas a productive fire hydrant last game.