WINQUIST, KHAIRA HAVING EARLY EV SCORING SUCCESS IN BAKERSFIELD
We’re early days in the 2015-16 season and wondering why Edmonton’s prospects aren’t scoring much in the AHL. One reason? Lack of power-play scoring. There is some evidence chances are being extended, but so far there aren’t many cheques cashing for Edmonton’s high-end prospects. No worries. EV scoring is a better judge of actual talent and a better indicator of how these kids will perform in the NHL (should they get there).
EV LEADERS, FORWARDS IN BAKERSFIELD
Among forwards, all of the points gathered so far belong to veteran AHLers. Is this uncommon? Not really. The numbers from OKC last season show the older players getting most of the PP goals and assists. Leon Draisaitl is getting power-play time, as David Staples work (pay wall) shows in a recent post.
Yakimov and Josh Winquist got some points, but Andrew Miller, Anton Lander and Ryan Hamilton led the way. Early EV spikes (and this is early) include:
- Josh Winquist, who keeps showing up in good spots no matter where he begins each season.
- Jujhar Khaira, whose main issue is offense. A nice start for the big forward. If he keeps this up, he might see the NHL this season.
- Mitch Moroz, getting a regular shift and so far showing some EV ability at this level.
- Bogdan Yakimov, the big C who had the best year of the 20-year old F’s a year ago.
EV LEADERS, DEFNESE IN BAKERSFIELD
Early days, and it’s hard to fault Gerry Fleming for using Hunt heavily with the man advantage, but it looks like the young blue are not getting the minutes (or luck, one of the two) 5×4 and 5×3. Does that jive with a year ago?
Hunt got the lion’s share and that’s what we’re seeing again this season (so far). Oesterle did see some PP time and I imagine Nurse will see some too this year. The numbers aren’t there yet, but early days.
Hey look it’s a really solid RHD on HNIC, he’s skates fast, has a great shot, can make a outlet pass…..and there’s another RHD that’s pretty solid as well on his team that used to play here.
Like a stubbed toe, every time I see Petry in a Habs jersey.
Second SPAM for my newest post:
http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2015/10/oiler-dmen-vs-best-opposition-forward.html
I’ve added a”totals” section.
Here’s how the Oilers’s D have done against the best:
Fayne 51%
Reinhart 49%
Sekera 48%
Klefbom 48%
Schultz 45%
Gryba 42%
Ference 38%
Davidson 27%
Klef & Jultz have had a big advantage in zone starts and with Gmoney’s help I’ll get those exact numbers.
Woodguy,
I would love Savard for Schultz.
Not sure CBJ does that though.
What would the Oilers have to add in as a sweetener to get Kekelainen’s attention?
I don’t know but its worth an ask.
He’s a Jultz replacment though.
I think Chia is looking for a bonafide 1RD and that’s next summer.
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/west-coast-bias-sharks-torres-running-out-of-chances/
Spector mentions Shattenkirk might be available.
‘If St. Louis wants a Top 6 forward in return, they may dangle Shattenkirk, who has one year left on his deal beyond 2015-16.”
Also mentions Gunnarson’s available but I’m not sure if he’d make that much of a difference.
Personally, I’d go after Jared Spurgeon. RH + from Edmonton and they have Dumba on the right side that hopefully makes them feel like they can move Spurgeon for cap space, plus Mike Reilly signed there as a free agent.
They only have 500k cap space, and they need to sign Zucker, Dumba, and Spurgeon next year. Backstrom’s 3.4m comes off the books next year but they’ll still need a back up which will take at least 900k.
Sekera-Fayne
Klefbom-Spurgeon
Nurse-Reinhart.
I don’t know if they have the top 6 guy to move for Shattenkirk, and I don’t think I’d do Draisaitl for Shattenirk with his contract uncertainty.
I think Spurgeon for a 2nd could easily be done.
fifthcartel,
Personally, I’d go after Jared Spurgeon. RH + from Edmonton and they have Dumba on the right side that hopefully makes them feel like they can move Spurgeon for cap space, plus Mike Reilly signed there as a free agent.
I like Spurgeon alot alot.
I don’t know if Chia likes small DMen though.
Spurgeon plays much bigger than he is though.
fifthcartel,
You could also offersheet Dumba in the summer.
MIN is ripe for a double offer sheet if both Spurgeon and Dumba aren’t signed this summer.
LT,
Josh Winquist, who keeps showing up in good spots no matter where he begins each season.
And he’s the only one without a NHL contract right?
Among true prospects above, yes.
Woodguy,
Ship has sailed. He’s their #2 d man and has stolen Brodins lunch. He will cost more than u think.
Huh.
Brodin lost his job with Suter.
MIN has been running their Dpairs this way this year:
Suter – Spurgeon
Brodin – Dumba
Scandella – Folin
Spurgeon might be tougher to get than thought.
By the numbers Brodin-Dumba are struggling a bit with a 40.8% CF together.
Both are much better apart in really small samples.
Would Carolina consider trading Faulk? He seems like a perfect fit, his age his contract, plus he used to play with Sekera and the two had a lot of success.
Carolina seems to be a fit trade wise, as they have a lot of talented young D but may be lacking in forwards.
Woodguy,
Yeah a lot of Boston’s defense was pretty huge – Chara, Hamilton, Boychuk, McQuaid. I dunno if Seidenberg or Bartkowski count being 6’0-6’1 and ~196, but he also had Torey Krug and I think Spurgeon is probably a better player than Krug.
I think they’d be a prime target with how desolate the right side looks here. It was rumoured Boston moved Hamilton because they thought Chiarelli would offer sheet him, and the same thing happened with LAK and Martin Jones (San Jose would offer sheet Jones).
I wonder about that too. Maybe Chiarelli could get Spurgeon if the Wild don’t want 2 RHD defensemen vulnerable to an offer sheet.
Woodguy,
I think an offseason trade is probable, as his offer sheet is a very real risk. I’ve been beating the Spurgeon drum since summer, he’s been great with Scandella which is a nice complimentary player with his size concerns. Spurgeon does however, hold his own and is a tremendous transition player.
He’s exactly what we need and wouldn’t cost Hall. Our first rounder might be in play if he’d sign a 5 yr extension.
Does that make Brodin available then?
Because I’d give up plenty for Brodin w/ that contract
What is going on in Anaheim?
Down 3-0 after 2 periods vs the Wild (Spurgeon with 2 assists so far)
Shots are 26-9 for the Wild.
Bruce Boudreau could soon be out the door.
If they bring up Eakins from the farm do the Oilers get compensation?
Re: Brodin – I’d be careful with that one. He’s good, but his numbers were majorly goosed by Suter, so really we don’t know how good he is.
Re: Anaheim and Eakins – wouldn’t that be hilarious. Eakins is 4-0-0, Nelson 1-5-1, and Fleming 1-3-1 to open the season.
Not happening with Eakins, the next in line would be Paul MacLean (ex-Senetors coach) who is the assistant right now, after being hired in the off-season. Did Boudreau really lose the room or is it the slow start syndrome because Anaheim are suppose to be contenders this year?
719,
I think your logic is sound, but if Carolina is smart, they don’t flip a D for a forward, and simply spend their time drafting C’s and W’s as they wait for Faulk, Hanfin, and Fleury to evolve into the teams new D-corps.
You know, build from back to front. The way you are supposed to.
Min is pretty thin at C. Koivu is on the decline and I think Granlund is their 2C.
A Draisaitl + Reinhart for Brodin + Niederreiter deal could be good for both teams.
Works out to one extra expected Fenwick For event thus far if their push is as big as last year. And that’s if the center is winning 50% of the FOs or close to it.
A 2% OZ push to their total shifts just isn’t big enough to matter.
That’s so Oilers
I don’t see why, he’s their best Dman.
There’s also the question of “can they afford both Dumba and Spuregeon”
Spurgeon’s agent would be best to let it play out until summer.
Puck moving RHD are hot commodities….. unless your name is MacT and your head is up your ass.
Man.
Could be that they’re doing it to strengthen the middle pairing. Or maybe Spurgeon’s better offense means they want to play the pairing as a unit at EVs and PP. I haven’t looked into it but I wonder if there’s any verbal from the coach on the switch.
I like the Spurgeon talk and you never know what you might be able to pay for a player when there’s a cap gun (remember those lol) aimed at the GM’s head.
I love Brodin, but I think we should be looking for a defensemen who will bring more offense.
Brodin is LHD and Oilers are deep there.
He’s hasn’t been very good since his rookie year.
Murray brought in Paul McLean as an assistant this summer.
Boudreau didn’t hire him, Murray did.
I’d Bruce gets the pipe it’s McLean.
I’d love to see Eakins there though. Just to see.
I bet he’d be ok, he did a lot of good things and I guarantee he wouldn’t come in so hot.
Oilers are thin on RHD. I like Spurgeon for now and Dumba in the near future.
Yup, he does a great interview for sure.
F#ck Bookjie!
Re: Spurgeon.
I remember reading this about Spurgeon back in the summer.
http://www.startribune.com/an-extensive-look-at-the-wild-s-offseason-and-what-could-happen/303944521/
“3. As I wrote in my end-of-the-year analysis, I think the writing is on the wall that defenseman Jared Spurgeon gets traded this summer or next.
He is a year from restricted free agency. He makes a hefty $3.6 million next season with a cap hit of $2.667M. At 25 years old, there is little doubt Spurgeon has earned a long-term extension next summer with a significant pay hike (like Cal Clutterbuck the summer the Wild dealt him to the Islanders for Nino Niederreiter).
I just don’t see how the Wild can make the math work even though the organization has immense respect for the right-shot Spurgeon, one of the team’s best two-way, mobile defensemen.
Ryan Suter is on a 13-year, $98 million deal. Jonas Brodin begins a six-year, $25 million deal next season. Spurgeon’s best bud and longtime defense partner Marco Scandella begins a five-year, $20 million deal next season.
The hope is right-shot thoroughbred Matt Dumba continues to emerge and slots into Spurgeon’s spot. The Wild believes right-shot blue-liner Christian Folin will be a player (I think he has the makings of being one, too) and the Wild firmly believes Gustav Olofsson will eventually develop into a stud. Olofsson did have a big developmental year ruined this season by a torn labrum (shoulder) and will no doubt need to start in Iowa next season.
So while there is no rush to trade Spurgeon this summer, $3.6M is a pretty large sum for him next season and my guess is the Wild at least dangles him out there to see if it gets nibbles as the draft approaches.
I have gotten annihilated with tweets and emails about something that appeared in the Edmonton Journal on Thursday (see here).”
He goes on to suggest him and Matheson were talking about Spurgeon for Yakupov. But Yak is on a pretty cheap contract and has started off pretty hot with McDavid and the Wild seem deep on the wings. Pominville and Niederreter are signed for the next couple years anyways. With Parise and Vanek on LW.
I don’t think they could command Yakupov for Spurgeon with the troubles they’d have to sign him, and it might be more of a cap dump situation.
Petry lovers!
I might be wrong about him.
Kypreos and Hrudey think he is a great dman.
Talk about 100% bang on insight by hockey experts.
It has me waivering!
just don’t splash any water on his hair and he would do just fine!
Guys, just throwing this out there because it’s Flames related.
This is friend of a friend stuff but my friend is unimpeachable and he says his guy’s Flames connection is legit, he’s seen pix of his friend partying with Hudler, etc.
Apparently the scuttlebutt is that the Flames players aren’t fans of Hamilton so far, basically confirming what Boston was saying. Is this just coming out because of the Flames start and because Hamilton hasn’t lit the world on fire?
LT you can delete if you like, I wouldn’t post if I didn’t have some bona fides on this. Thought I’d pass it on.
dustrock,
Heh heh, you’d think rumours of a split in the Phlegm dressing room should be fair game.
Gord knows we’ve had enough of them about the Oiler dressing room!
The Eskimo players are starting to drop like flies.
I suspect a symptom of the absolutely fucking ridiculous bye week schedule the league imposed.
Who the fuck asks a team to go 18 weeks without a bye?
Bakersfield Condors Retweeted
Ryan Holt @CondorsHolty 33m33 minutes ago
Nikita Nikitin is playing tonight. Condors going 11 & 7 with LaLeggia the possible 12th “forward.”
LINES:
Hamilton – Draisaitl – Ford
Khaira – Yakimov – Miller
Christoffer – McRae – Platzer
Moroz – Winquist – Kessy / Pageau
DEFENSE:
Nurse – Nikitin
Hunt – Oesterle
Musil – LaLeggia
GOAL
Brossoit
Hey WG I read your blog, a lot of work there. It appears you came to the same conclusion on Nurse after all, maybe a help on third pairing, where the game is not won or lost typically.
dustrock,
I call BS, if Hamilton is causing a split, this http://flamesnation.ca/2015/10/24/making-perfect-sense-of-the-flames-as-avengers
….sure doesn’t seem to indicate it is very serious.
NN on #1 PP
Spurgeon is the get.
He’s quality and I think Minnesota views him as a commodity(Matheson was sure banging his drum this past summer).
I would hope Chiarelli could put aside his “Big Tough” defenceman view aside- if that is even a thing- and get him for what could possibly be a reasonable price.
Cristoffer draws a penalty. PP #2 upcoming.
1-0 Condors score. McRae goes 5 hole off the draw.
Hunt takes a hooking call.
NN on the first PK unit.
McRae’s goal from Platzer. Christoffer third man on the line.
I believe there is some truth. You don’t have to get along to go visit the kids. When there is 23 players with different personalities, you will always have a few that don’t get along. But they can still work together for a common goal. Think how its like at your work place. I’m positive there is gossip, negative chatter and someone feeling like an outsider. Human nature.
Yeah, just thought I’d pass along what I heard. I don’t take much stock in locker room gossip but it was interesting.
Drai leads 3 on 2, stutter step, breaks to middle and shoots into bread basket. Nice rush
Condors PP looking like shite. 0 – 3.
Well season is shaping out already as expected.
Mtl, Tampa, Ottawa, Wash, Nyr, Nyi in the east. Dallas, Nash, Wild, Stl in the central. Phoenix in the west. Wait. Wtf. How is Phoenix doing so well and Anaheim so poor. Those spots should be reversed.
Oh yeah, Flames lose again !!!
Good thing we’re developing that Nikitin fella. I hear he may have a bright future.
Nurse looking great again. Broke up a cross-ice pass nicely on the PK.
Draisaitl having a pretty good game. Couple nice backchecks. And a nice forecheck at the end of the period. I can see to an extent the lack of a system hurting Draisaitl’s stats. Players are working really hard but it’s also way more chaotic.
Couple funny moments with good old Eakins. One time he was right up on the bench yelling at his team to change and the commentators wished they could get a photo of it.
Another time he insisted that the faceoff go on the other side of the goalie and the Refs relented.
1-0 Condors after one.
Parayko with a goal and an assist tonight. Went to highschool with him, really really nice guy, so cool to see him have this much success early on. Now my boy Winny just needs to get signed!!
Drai with a nice neutral zone steal.
Khaira with a nice steal in the ozone and draws another PP.
Condors 0-4 right now on PP
NN passing up wide open shots on PP. Not sure why
0-5 on PP
Drai throws it to a rushing Nurse flying down the left wing and he just misses on slapper from left hash.
Another Condor PP ugh
Bush league shit from the Gulls forward on LB. Would have been ugly if it was in the NHL.
Condors have a bad PP.
Miller having a bad game. Ford and Hamilton having a bad game.
0-6 on PP
Need to scrap that first PP unit and let the 2nd unit have a longer crack.
DRAI!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2-0
Low snapper from left circle
Gulls an ugly, chippy team.
Any concerns about Draisaitl honestly allayed by this game. Starting to see that active stick in the neutral zone.
Draisaitl scores!!
Nice steal by Ford to kick it out to Drai who goes low glove side.
Nice shot. Picked up a loose puck went just inside far post.
Finally! Leon.
Seein McRae good tonight.
Kessy and Moroz active tonight. Platzer too.
Laleggia is like the fastest skater this end of McDavid but too much “skate it real fast to the blue line and then…”
Nurse just buried a Swarming Sea Gull in a scrum off the draw. Wow
Nurse fully engaged tonight. Just a beast on the PK here.
Whoever we get I hope it involves trading our first. Its time to commit. Im ok with our first and Drai being in play in either two separate deals or one significant one. A teams as bad as us for so long thats done nothing but collect assets can surely afford two for the right return. Might be a chance to add a Ference amendment to any trade bill created as well.
The limited times I’ve watched Arizona I didnt mind that Murphy kid. Gotta figure they will be in full on acquire as many first round draft picks as possible mode as soon as they settle and drop in the standings. Cant see anyone wanting Mathews more. What could our first get from them that could help now?
@TheAHL: The first career #AHL goal for @Drat_29 makes it 2-0 @Condors #SDvsBAK https://t.co/o34S7nNNKo
Guys the Oilers simply don’t have a player at all like Draisaitl. I’d think real hard before trading him.
Brossoit looking real good tonight
Condors have had 6 power plays and honestly could have had 4 more.
Been a while since I’ve seen a team trip as much as the Gulls.
This.
There 2 back to back in the Gull end that weren’t called. I guess there is a limit.
2-0 after 2. Real nice period by the Condors, good pressure.
2-0 after 2
Give to get , trade from strength and all that jazz. Our wing isnt all that deep and any trade would just cause another hole. We’ve been there before. Drai and Picks I think is this teams currency.
Get good players ,keep good players is great.
Get good players, trade that good player for a good player you need more is ok too.
Visually better,
Hey, I went to high school with Parayko too!
dustrock,
They also don’t have players like Hall, Eberle, Nuge, McDavid, Yak, Nurse, Klef. What is your point? Moar biggar isn’t more of a priority than defence. I would be more comfortable getting another pouliot type to play the role draisaitl is going to get in the bigs. Buddy has never even won an award. That being said, I want to see the flop on nurse before I make a move for a dman. RFA deals are pretty valuable, and losing draisaitl would sting a little.
I’d make an 80’s style montage of Draisaitl featuring Bon Jovi and send it to New Jersey. Ask for Larsson.
Miller with a double minor.
Nice PK work. Gulls take another penalty negating final 27 sec of 4 min minor
Nurse killing this kill
Jackets win.
Hamilton from Hunt and Nikitin. 3-0
NN feeds Hamilton from the half wall for a gimme on the PP.
3-0 Condors
Draisaitl won’t get the 3rd assist but great board work over to Hunt(?) to Nikitin back door to Hamilton for the tapping. 3-0 finally a PP goal!
Condors the better team by far tonight. Nice steal by Cristoffer in the neutral zone and he walks in and rings it in off crossbar.
Should mention I believe the Gulls have won 4 straight coming into this game.
The one kid doing a solid Borat dance impression
Bickell such a piece of trash.
Moroz and Kessy both throwing.
Laleggia with an MMA takedown of a guy 2x his size.
Wow…big time dust up.
5 guys per team in the box. Amazing
Kessy just one punches this one poor bastard and drops him.
I love Moroz. Still yapping. Kessy ejected. Moroz ejected.
Noted tough guy Laleggia ejected.
And now Winquist gone.
That was nuts.
Noted tough guy Winquist ejected
How is Bickel stoll around? Suckered Moroz from behind.
That’s the whole 4th line plus Leggs gonzo.
Another nice shot by Drai. Nice save.
Condors get another PP outta that mess.
Oh. Condors do get the PP.
Condors have real trouble getting set up. Like Oilers level bad.
Late PP for Gulls down 3-0 2 minutes left in 3rd.
Final
3- 0 Condors
3-0 shutout for Brossoit. Entertaining game.
Seismic Source,
He wasn’t even a ppg in junior. AHL energy winger at best.
You didn’t read close enough then.
Look at the significant amount of TOI that Gryba is playing against the toughs and getting pounded.
You can lose a game there.
I remember Vic saying people spend too much time worrying about 4th lines, but its more 4th lines than 3rd pairs.
Usually the 3rd pair Dmen spend more time on the ice than 67% of the forwards.
You can’t ignore that at all.
Games are won and lost on the worst Dpairing all the time.
Especially when they spend too much time against the best lines.
Petry’s GFON is 75% this season
from a 34.4% OZ%
So, stuff it up your ass, OK Ricki?
In a large sample it works that way, but when looking at game by game ZS can matter a lot.
My post is a game by game analysis and ZS matter in the short term imo.
For instance in the Vancouver game Sekera and Fayne had 3 dzone starts and 1 ozone start.
That’s a net of 2 dzone starts.
We know that 22 seconds after a dzone draw there is a much higher chance of a goal against than in open play.
That’s 44 seconds out of 5:32 that they play in that state.
That’s significant on a game level.
LIne brawl video from tonights Condors game.
Kessey one punches someone.
Kessey looks like old time hockey.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-SKZy73DOM
Head to head player CF charts.
Interesting?
WSH: http://i.imgur.com/3gabzBk.png
CGY: http://i.imgur.com/tv5HYBX.png
There’s a few that do these charts but they can be hard to find sometimes.
Easy to add this (and/or SACF% and/or DFF%) to the NerdAlert post-game data page.
I’m reaching the point where the page is so massive and full of info, I may need to split it up, or perhaps start redacting info that is easily available elsewhere.
Woodguy,
fuck it, bring this guy up.
he knows what he has to do.
he can’ t be worse than gazdic….
oil need some old time hockey.
Kessey style + McDavid magic = the ELPH we’ve been promised from three years ago…
I dunno, I’m probably too many beers in, but, hey, it sounded like a good idea at the time, officer:)