PIPELINE!

by Lowetide

We’re early in the 2015-16 season but the Bakersfield Condors have been helping the big club in a very real way. Early callups like Andrew Miller and Iiro Pakarinen and recent trips north from Darnell Nurse and Leon Draisaitl have given a boost to the Oilers at a vital time.

The Oklahoma City Barons gifted Edmonton a long list of prospects over five years. Were any of them of the calibre suggested by Nurse and Draisaitl? Jeff Petry was far and away the most productive Barons player in terms of NHL GP (this is top 10, doesn’t include this year’s NHL games).

NHL GP BY OKC BARONS 2010-2015

  1. Jeff Petry 314
  2. Magnus Paajarvi 228
  3. Justin Schultz 203
  4. Colin McDonald 138
  5. Anton Lander 132
  6. Mark Arcobello 119
  7. Chris VandeVelde 118
  8. Martin Marincin 85
  9. Linus Omark 79
  10. Oscar Klefbom 77

By the time they are through, Klefbom may be the best player of the bunch but it’s too soon to know. I kind of feel, and have expressed, that Nurse and Draisaitl were too good for the AHL, too bona fide for the league. There was just so much, too much, that allowed them to be top 10 overall draft picks, that spending time in the minors felt to me like a self-imposed error by management.

  • “We know this team turns over prospects too soon and elevates them before they’re ready. To show our new found rational and intelligent approach, we’re going to send these two bona fide kids down there because we can.” (This is not an actual quote)

That never made any sense to me, not at any time. Darnell Nurse was kept in the AHL division during the entire training camp, earning only brief looks and playing with certain Condor Joey Laleggia as his partner most of the time. Leon scored seemingly at will during TC, didn’t do him one bit of good. That struck me as inherently unfair, and ran counter with what we have learned over the decades from minor league auditions.

I’ve written at length about what kind of minor league players flourish and develop in the AHL, and there’s a profile for minor leaguers that reveals itself when you stare at this stuff long enough. Two player-types are found in the AHL who eventually have substantial NHL careers:

  • Jason Chimera, Fernando Pisani types who have one outstanding skill (speed, two-way acumen) but need a place to develop their skills, grind their own weaknesses from their game, and to learn how to survive while adding an offensive component to their game.
  • Mike Walton, Rob Schremp types who have offensive value but something in their game (discipline, discipline) holding them back.

Which of these categories sounds like Darnell Nurse? Leon Draisaitl? The ‘stars’ of the AHL development system are men like Daniel Cleary, Jason Chimera, Fernando Pisani, Jeff Petry and hopefully Anton Lander. Darnell Nurse has no skating issues, Leon Draisaitl is not a Rob Schremp comparable in my books—you may feel differently. I think it’s far easier to make the argument for Griffin Reinhart than either of these prospects.

https://twitter.com/NicholsOnHockey/status/660211052051718144

The slow-footed defenseman is not the future. Ladies and gentlemen, Darnell Nurse! Condors play tonight, it’s an earlier road game and I’ll have updates from that game and the college and junior action.

Pitlick is back in action, that second line should be fun. Scott Zerr made a point of mentioning Braden Christoffer as having impressed this year, and the 4C always finds a way to make an impact.

Still no Dillon Simpson, wonder if he’s had a setback? If only Martin Gernat’s Dad had told him the Charles Atlas story.

 

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Sugar Reijo

Crazy lifetime career splits: Carey Price is now 1-6-1 against the Oilers, with a 3.75 GAA and .856 save percentage.

He’s also 3-5 lifetime vs. Calgary. Conversely he’s 6-2-2 against Vancouver with a .924 save percentage, so it’s not all of western Canada but just Alberta that is death valley for him.

jp

rickithebear,

My comment was directed more to your delivery than the content of what you said. JMO.

Lackadaisical

I’m not familiar with the in depth analytics, so forgive me if this is way off but; I do wonder if your danger adjusted fenwick, G Money, would be valuable when you break down how often a player takes a shot, pass, steals/loses the puck, from a high danger position, forecasting aggressive/smart players through comparison.

It does seem, you could adjust the individuals goal/save % in each danger area vs shots taken. And it might tell you a good bit about finishers and goalies. Doing something, when in the right place.

Is there anything like a high danger zone for passing to get the A? Might there be?

PhrankLee

rickithebear,

Late to the dance with jetlag in the Mddle East. Sorry to hear the news, Riki The.

Go Oil.

Fuck you Bookjie

Fuck the Flames.

spoiler

Bruce McCurdy,

You have been on fire today. Your two big posts in the morning thread were absolutely… stellar lol. Consider writing a fucking book. Find a new hook that fits you. Your memory for hockey games is beyond elephantine.

Perhaps that juxtaposition of the young and old crews…

spoiler

I would like to have participated in the game day blog but I was with a Habs fan, a man who actually put on an Eberle jersey to go with me to watch Oil vs Flames at the SadDome.

I’m 6 foot 215, played a lot of sports, but this guy is 265 ex-linebacker and through the first half of the game he was talking smack, and there’s not a lot I can do about it, lol.

This man also loves Petry and rides me about that trade constantly. I give him the laser unicorn eyes.

He’s also been riding me about no improvement in the Oiler game and I’ve been telling him he’s wrong it’s about a lack of consistency and discipline.

Yet then… about half way thru the second he looks at me and goes “You’re going to score, you’re playing right.”

After the Oil 2nd goal he says, “You keep playing like this and you’re going to win.” And that felt good. Coz he was convinced this team plays better at times and I wanted him to see that.

But the last goal lit him up. I mean on Pou’s breakaway he was initially critical of Price and I pointed out that shooting quickly was key to that goal, but Deharnais behind the net… He lost it.

It was as close to Jultzing as you will get from a Hab; Deharnais had time and options and took advantage of neither. A little hustle and Nuge doesn’t even get there.

“Fucking Lollygagger” were his exact words.

It was an enjoyable game.

spoiler

rickithebear: G money is an intellectual freak in my mind!

That is praise!

Just cause he did all that work to create curves that already exist is a fact of life.

lange did not realize what he created or had.

He was miles ahead of everyone.

Just like Michael Scmucher @ St. lawrence.

G money will likely advance the system to a finite measure.

He is the voice for this approach!

but do not forget were the advances came from.

Lange is the shot curve god!

Dickish!

there are those that steal credit for work.

those that do not.

Money supported a pre existing result that advanced the concept.

I guarantee he was unaware of lange’s results.

He is a better man to be advancing the concepts.

I am going to work on the retention of STM to lock into my LTM.

and

do everything in my power to get myself to age 75 when it took out my Gramp’s; and is taking my dad!

River paddle boarding seems like a summer vice i will target.

I will continue to come participate in the great analytics and discourse!

I’m guessing you had Tesla taking Edison at the Vegas Böök¡je’s?

I did too.

🙁

v4ance

Numenius:
This has probably been noted before, but for some perspective…

Aside from the Kings (7), the Oilers’ losses have only been to teams in 4th place or above in their respective conference: Dallas (1), Nashville (2), St. Louis (3), Minnesota (4) in the West and Washington (3) in the East.

They also just beat the #1 team in the league with a bunch of rookies.

Plus they did it dragging around Ference.

I didn’t know the score tonight but as I got on the train at Sommerset-Bridlewood here in Calgary, I heard the chants of “Ole, Ole Ole…” from the Montreal fans leaving the station. I figured it was good news =D

Numenius

This has probably been noted before, but for some perspective…

Aside from the Kings (7), the Oilers’ losses have only been to teams in 4th place or above in their respective conference: Dallas (1), Nashville (2), St. Louis (3), Minnesota (4) in the West and Washington (3) in the East.

They also just beat the #1 team in the league with a bunch of rookies.

rickithebear

jp: You’ve been a bit of a dick tonight, but that is some tough news.

Truly sorry to hear it.

G money is an intellectual freak in my mind!

That is praise!

Just cause he did all that work to create curves that already exist is a fact of life.

lange did not realize what he created or had.

He was miles ahead of everyone.

Just like Michael Scmucher @ St. lawrence.

G money will likely advance the system to a finite measure.

He is the voice for this approach!

but do not forget were the advances came from.

Lange is the shot curve god!

Dickish!

there are those that steal credit for work.

those that do not.

Money supported a pre existing result that advanced the concept.

I guarantee he was unaware of lange’s results.

He is a better man to be advancing the concepts.

I am going to work on the retention of STM to lock into my LTM.

and

do everything in my power to get myself to age 75 when it took out my Gramp’s; and is taking my dad!

River paddle boarding seems like a summer vice i will target.

I will continue to come participate in the great analytics and discourse!

jp

G Money:
I finally finished my painfully detailed TL;DR explanation of what “Dangerous Fenwick” is and how its calculated and all that jazz.

https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/10/30/explaining-dangerous-fenwick/

Nice to see a little bit more about what goes into these metrics.

I hadn’t appreciated the average danger multiplier before now. I guess it’s a repeatable skill, but it will be interesting to see how consistent it actually is.

Are you planning to periodically do a summary of the cumulative totals for your various metrics? Maybe in 10 game segments?

Barcs

Bruce McCurdy,

I was going to use the ol’ Ryan Smyth muffin slapshot as my example, but didn’t want to risk incurring this blog’s collective rath.

Besides, Smytty spent so much time at the goalmouth that I’d bet he had a fairly decent sh% even with all those outside clappers. Call it the Shaquille O’Neil effect. (Shaq has one of the highest sh% in NBA history b/c he only dunked or took layups from in close. Just don’t ask him to take a free throw).

Bruce McCurdy

Barcs: This is fascinating stuff. Thanks for all of your hard work.

I’m a very casual follower of hockey analytics, so forgive me if this is a silly question, but is there anything that you can do or already do in order to take into account the quality of the shooter?

I suppose what I’m saying is that I assume Steven Stamkos will have a higher average shooting percentage than John Scott (as an extreme example). Is there anything you can do to account for that?

My extreme example (years ago) used to be, what is more dangerous, Sheldon Souray blasting away from just outside home plate, or Ladi Smid from just inside?

Barcs

G Money:
I finally finished my painfully detailed TL;DR explanation of what “Dangerous Fenwick” is and how its calculated and all that jazz.

https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/10/30/explaining-dangerous-fenwick/

This is fascinating stuff. Thanks for all of your hard work.

I’m a very casual follower of hockey analytics, so forgive me if this is a silly question, but is there anything that you can do or already do in order to take into account the quality of the shooter?

I suppose what I’m saying is that I assume Steven Stamkos will have a higher average shooting percentage than John Scott (as an extreme example). Is there anything you can do to account for that?

Bruce McCurdy

Best wishes to you, Ricki.

AsiaOil

Fayne for Tyutin?

Same contract length but a bit lower cap hit for Columbus and Fayne is a bit younger. Would be worried about the wheels starting to fall off Tyutin at 32 given his workload over the years.

Probably pass – need to clear out guys more than add another problem.

LadiesloveSmid:
Tyutin was a healthy scratch tonight. Wonder if he’d be worth looking at on the cheap.

striker

LadiesloveSmid:
Tyutin was a healthy scratch tonight. Wonder if he’d be worth looking at on the cheap.

Interesting tidbit. We have to employ all resources at our disposal.

Ask Howson whether the Oilers should trade for him and then do the opposite.

LadiesloveSmid

RexLibris: Tyutin for Fayne?

I’d consider that. Tyutin being 32 is a problem. Might be a better fit for Edmonton than Fayne, Fayne might be a Tortorella kind of player.

striker

Lowetide:
Oesterle and Khaira with the apples. Khaira posting more boxcars this year.

Khaira with 4 pts in 7 games so far. What’s the Mendoza line (AHL ppg) we can hope that JJ maintains in Bakersfield to project him as a possible future NHL winger?

http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/edmonton-oilers-next-best-bet-at-bakersfield-j-j-khaira

RexLibris

LadiesloveSmid:
Tyutin was a healthy scratch tonight. Wonder if he’d be worth looking at on the cheap.

Tyutin for Fayne?

RexLibris

Ice Sage: well, maybe they can dress up as hockey players tomorrow night

Damn. I’m going to use that, if you don’t mind. Perfect.

Ice Sage

LadiesloveSmid: ya I’m absolutely not getting mouthy about the flames yet. They’ll be pissed off tomorrow and Edmonton has a long long history of disappointing

I understand not wanting to jinx anything but these are 2 teams trending in opposite directions. Who cares if they’re ‘pissed off’? Oilers are home, 2 days rested, playing loose yet exuberant hockey and the phlegms…. well, maybe they can dress up as hockey players tomorrow night

LadiesloveSmid

Tyutin was a healthy scratch tonight. Wonder if he’d be worth looking at on the cheap.

LadiesloveSmid

Магия 10: https://streamable.com/72xv

ya I’m absolutely not getting mouthy about the flames yet. They’ll be pissed off tomorrow and Edmonton has a long long history of disappointing

Gordies Elbow

RexLibris:
Elliotte Friedman Retweeted
Randy Sportak ‏@SUNRandySportak 13m13 minutes ago

Ramo to start for #Flames tomorrow in Edmonton

3 games played, 0.879 save percentage, and 4.37 GAA this season?

Playing next on Halloween.

Sleep well, Mr. Ramo.

The nightmares about Connor McDavid are yet to come…

Ice Sage

RexLibris:
Rex Codex Libris ‏@CodexRex 24s25 seconds ago

Ortio or Ramo tomorrow night? Why not Hrudey? He’s on Flames’ payroll, right?

LOL – well he is a 3rd line goalie

JD_Wry
RexLibris

Elliotte Friedman Retweeted
Randy Sportak ‏@SUNRandySportak 13m13 minutes ago

Ramo to start for #Flames tomorrow in Edmonton

N64

RexLibris:
So…

…commenters on FN are starting to ask about the draft.

Check the timer, I think the worm needs turning.

Frightening thing is that we have just as many regulation losses. They’ll be gunning for the Oil after a 6 -2 lioss.

RexLibris

So…

…commenters on FN are starting to ask about the draft.

Check the timer, I think the worm needs turning.

N64

rickithebear: You are the kind of person that can chase the data.
What you need to advance too is generating individual curves for individual players shooting.
and
Individual defence man’s shot density suppression.
I know you can do it.

~ The mental image shifts again. The bear is a hologram in the secret polar lab that G Money has stumbled into in pursuit of the density matrix ~

More seriously. Sorry to hear the result. It’s good to be surrounded with love at all times.

RexLibris

These are not Jaques Lemaire’s Minnesota.

Picturesque

RexLibris: I have a recurring fantasy where the Oilers fire Howson and the Flames hire both he and Eakins this season, resulting in forfeiting two draft picks for our “bestest and brighterest”.

man, in a perfect world… in a perfect world…

Johnny skid

RexLibris: I have a recurring fantasy where the Oilers fire Howson and the Flames hire both he and Eakins this season, resulting in forfeiting two draft picks for our “bestest and brighterest”.

i am in favour of your fantasy to come true.

RexLibris

Picturesque: Love it!And will Hartley still be on the payroll after the Oilers win tomorrow night? I think the Oilers can once again be the coach killers they’ve known to be the past few years – but this time for the other team.

I have a recurring fantasy where the Oilers fire Howson and the Flames hire both he and Eakins this season, resulting in forfeiting two draft picks for our “bestest and brighterest”.

Picturesque

RexLibris:
Rex Codex Libris ‏@CodexRex 24s25 seconds ago

Ortio or Ramo tomorrow night? Why not Hrudey? He’s on Flames’ payroll, right?

Love it! And will Hartley still be on the payroll after the Oilers win tomorrow night? I think the Oilers can once again be the coach killers they’ve known to be the past few years – but this time for the other team.

jp

rickithebear:

Shitty day yesterday.

Memory; brain function; blood test suggest.

STM loss @ 51 likley greater than a year old with identified coping mechanisms.

Zero LTM loss.

Start the early onset program next week.

You’ve been a bit of a dick tonight, but that is some tough news.

Truly sorry to hear it.

RexLibris

dustrock: Hrudey said he enjoyed watching the Oilers win.

Last game it was in Calgary and the broadcast group was more or less a Flames’ homer group.

This game is in Edmonton. I expect them to focus on the Flames, regardless of the score. With honourable mention to McDavid.

dustrock

RexLibris:
Rex Codex Libris ‏@CodexRex 24s25 seconds ago

Ortio or Ramo tomorrow night? Why not Hrudey? He’s on Flames’ payroll, right?

Hrudey said he enjoyed watching the Oilers win.

dustrock

TMI.

RexLibris

Rex Codex Libris ‏@CodexRex 24s25 seconds ago

Ortio or Ramo tomorrow night? Why not Hrudey? He’s on Flames’ payroll, right?

rickithebear

G money:

I too have run data set only to find out some one else had done this.

6////8 years ago i looked at shot quality as a whole.
Lange had already completed it.
The shape of his curves told me something he had not considered.
Shot Density!

fenwick shows the same thing.

it is frustrating as hell.

but what you have done as a visually overlay each shot curve in my mind is, as an average, the shape of fenwick is similar/the same as Fewick.

you confirmed the structure of each shot curve.
The success volume will be constant for each type of shot.

You are the kind of person that can chase the data.

What you need to advance too is generating individual curves for individual players shooting.
and
Individual defence man’s shot density suppression.

I know you can do it.

And now my brain cannot!

Shitty day yesterday.

Memory; brain function; blood test suggest.

STM loss @ 51 likley greater than a year old with identified coping mechanisms.

Zero LTM loss.

Start the early onset program next week.

but i can still remember the 200,00 drawings, 30,000 manuals, 3000 contracts I have wisked thru for tech data for the plant.

My wife has a good sense of humour.

1. Hopefully you remember why you have postits and task lists. that match with coping techniques.
2. Honey lets go to the hanna manor (old folks) for dinner.
3, Really we have had sex twice a day for the last year!

Pouzar

Final

5-4 Stars

Sugar Reijo

Gordies Elbow: Russell is what, now -16 on the season? On pace for-119.

Yeesh.

And in a contract year too. Ouch!

Zelepukin

Gordies Elbow: Russell is what, now -16 on the season? On pace for-119.

Yeesh.

Truly awesome.

Pouzar

Winquist makes it 5-4

Gordies Elbow

Zelepukin:
Wideman – Russell. The Gryba-Ference of the south.

Russell is what, now -16 on the season? On pace for -119.

Yeesh.