G16 2015-16: OILERS AT DUCKS

by Lowetide

This promises to be a very interesting trip to the left coast for the Edmonton Oilers. Based on what we’re hearing in regard to lines and pairings, Anton Lander and Mark Letestu are going to get a push—and may the best man win.

PROJECTED LINES AND PAIRINGS, FOR TONIGHT

  • Hall—Nugent-Hopkins—Draisaitl (slight possibility Leon is at C)
  • Pouliot—Letestu—Yakupov
  • Purcell—Lander—Eberle
  • Gazdic—Miller—Pakarinen
  • Nurse—Sekera
  • Klefbom—Fayne
  • Reinhart—Gryba
  • Talbot or Nilsson

I see a real chance for Mark Letestu and Anton Lander tonight, and a big opportunity for Mark Fayne, too. Lander is over 50% away from Lauri Korpikoski and 62.5% when playing with Jordan Eberle in less than half an hour last season. Mark Letestu is 13% with Lauri Korpikoski (only 13 minutes) and 45% without, but honestly hasn’t looked bad at all when playing with reasonable linemates (Purcell, Hendricks) and I’m not sure Lander is a better offensive player. That’s a battle to watch and I do think we’re getting to a point where decisions will be made.

Mark Fayne is not a popular man currently, but he has a 60% Corsi for % 5×5 without Andrej Sekera. He is 53.8% Corsi For 5×5 with Oscar Klefbom and there’s no doubt he’s struggled, too. It’s possible to have good numbers and get noticed for negative things—single moments and events can have super importance while being exactly single moments and events. I’m pleased Todd McLellan is giving Fayne another chance, and hope the Oilers win tonight. They don’t have to win November, but it would be very beneficial to keep it close. Hang around until McDavid’s return, romp January to April. It isn’t pretty, this is the beginning of the Chiarelli—McLellan era and we’re talking long view, but it’s also year 10 of Evil Dead for Oilers fans. Winning in November is important to this franchise, and for players who want a place on what should be a wild run through the rest of this decade.

We’re going to get a lot of that, and hey this has been an easy joke forever, why stop now? Chiarelli and McLellan can get a good look into these players during the next few games and find out what is going to work. The rest? Waivers, trades, the streets of Bakersfield. One of two things is on the way for some of these Oilers: Winning, or a brand new city.

OILERS BLUE, 2015-16

oil d fancy nov 10

This is sorted by my new favorite toy, On-Ice scoring chances against/60. One thing I’m reading more and more is ‘Corsi doesn’t cut it’ and man I have to say there’s exciting new looks being explored (G Money, and others, too). I like this new item, it’s a long blasted name but we’ll live with it. I also like CorsiRel, and when we look at those two things (Rel and ONSCA/60) there are some large gaps. Griffin Reinhart’s CR is poorest on the team, but his ONSCA/60 is among the better ones. Is it possible for him to trail in CorsiRel AND be among the better defenders at the other discipline? Maybe, these are still small sample sizes (Reinhart has played in seven games, far too small a sample size to draw any real conclusions).

Defenders who perform well in both disciplines? Darnell Nurse, Brandon Davidson, Andrej Sekera. Defenders who do not show well? Eric Gryba, Andrew Ference. I’m seeing a few ‘wait until Justin Schultz gets back’ comments these days, maybe this is exactly what he needed—absence makes the heart grow fonder. I’ve even seen some say ‘when you hear negatives about Schultz, remember when everyone hated Petry!’ but that’s not really true—the math was on Petry like a fly on stink from basically the first anthem. I think a Reinhart—Schultz pairing might be interesting, but would be very careful about touting it as something usable in the distance. Jury is out on both men, that’s a fact. If you’re suggesting Justin Schultz will save this group, please stop.

OILERS FORWARDS, 2015-16

oil f fancy nov 10

There’s a spot, in the middle there, that is fascinating. From Eberle (one game, folks!) through Yakupov, the Chances For/60 shows a healthy engine with pistons thrusting. Teddy Purcell isn’t TOO far from the ‘in crowd’ and that’s impressive. Why? TP’s Corsi For % 5×5 is 56% away from Lauri Korpikoski, 31% with the veteran. I wonder what that chance number would be without the Finn? Darcy was talking yesterday about three scoring lines, and if everyone was healthy, Edmonton could cobble together two scoring lines and an interesting third:

  • Hall—Nuge—Eberle
  • Pouliot—McDavid—Yakupov
  • Hendricks—Draisaitl—Purcell

Is that three scoring lines? In my RE back in the summer, I projected the top three lines as being the following (and allowing for mingling of lines which always happens):

 

  • Hall—Nuge—Eberle (Projected Total: 79)
  • Pouliot—McDavid—Yakupov (Projected Total: 60)
  • Korpikoski—Lander/Letestu/Draisaitl—Purcell (Projected Total: 33)

By the way, the Nuge line is on track (using Leon) and the McDavid line in the range, although that will change with the 97 injury. The third line—I’ll use Korpikoski-Letestu-Purcell trio—is shy. I think the top six isn’t the problem, and the third line is there—but they can’t find it! I would have guessed Letestu with Purcell (49.1 Corsi For 5×5 %) would have played more than 38 minutes at 5×5 (that’s like three games) together. It wouldn’t surprise me to see one of the new 2 or 3 lines have immediate success—lots of talent and two hungry centers.

lander capture 33

ABOUT LANDER

The Oilers have lost a few useful men over these recent seasons for reasons great and small. I’m tempted to write ‘it’s nobody’s fault, but….’ although the truth is we mostly know the culprit. Theo Peckham had a helluva lot going to him, but we know what happened. Marc Pouliot had some nice things, we know what went wrong.

Magnus Paajarvi is a player I think we can reasonably point to as one who was lost along the way. As a rookie, he scored 10-13-23 at evens with (mostly) Sam Gagner and Linus Omark. Last year, in about half a season, Anton Lander scored 1-10-11 at evens with men like Matt Fraser, Andrew Miller, Taylor Hall and Teddy Purcell on the wings.

This year, not a drop. I’d love to have someone to blame here, but Lander’s a good man and we haven’t heard a whisper about attitude or poor work habits. This is a young man who has leadership qualities, has succeeded on the international stage, and should be a bona fide NHL player. And yet, a season after he seemed home and dry, we are here. Sometimes in life, things don’t work out and there is no demon or villain in the piece. This is such a time.

canada flag1

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

I’m sorry for posting before 11 this morning, but part of this post is to promote the Lowdown. So for selfish reasons, you are reading this, I beg your forgiveness. 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Can the fanbase get over McDavid’s injury before McDavid gets over his injury?
  • Jeff Krushell, Krush Performance. Young players like McDavid and Lance Lynn are high performance athletes. How do they deal with injury? What kind of support do these young elite athletes have?
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. Leafs, Oilers and Flames are at the back of the pack in the NHL standings, but these teams aren’t all going in the same direction. Who should be more upset with their current situation?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

 

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Sugar Reijo

MOAR WINZ PLEEZ: I also share this sentiment…

I believe we have a motion before the committee;All in favour?

Aye!

MOAR WINZ PLEEZ

gogliano: I share this sentiment.

I also share this sentiment…

I believe we have a motion before the committee; All in favour?

gogliano

Adam Wu: *I* miss Jultz.

He chose the Oilers. He impresses me as a decent human being on interviews, and I want to see him succeed as an Oiler.

Do I count as “no one” in your estimation?

I share this sentiment.

Adam Wu

Zelepukin: I miss Jultz, said no on ever. Seriously.

*I* miss Jultz.

He chose the Oilers. He impresses me as a decent human being on interviews, and I want to see him succeed as an Oiler.

Do I count as “no one” in your estimation?

Sugar Reijo

As great as Drai has been offensively, that hustle he showed on the backcheck just before Nilsson very smartly kept the play going in OT was among the most encouraging things I’ve seen this year.

Didn’t get an assist on Purcell’s goal but was as important a part of that goal as anybody. Outstanding play all around.

And Nurse is a beast. So many of this organization’s woes will be addressed if he keeps playing the way he is.

PhrankLee

Happy day.

I sure hope nobody is looking past Arizona. They are 2 games above .500

And he shall be a good man. Leon is a tank.

G with the nice chart showing when Oilers break out the sniffing salts. Man they need to jump earlier.

blainer

Dari is showing us what he can do. I think he has be the 2nd line center until CMD returns. I would keep him though on the top line through this trip until Ebs gets his legs back. Hopefully Ebs is ok.

If this is the kind of goaltending we continue to get we are going to start winning a lot more games.

We should come right back with Nilsson he’s earned it and hasn’t played much.

It also gives Talbot a kick in the ass..

Yeti

Ca$h-McMoney!: All I kept thinking about during the game was that if Ryan Getzlaf was Rygor Getzlav the announcers would still be bringing up that soft game losing pass every four seconds.

I hear that Getzlav is the first off the ice at every damn practice.

jimmers2

Clay,

Except with a jaw if steel and a heart of oak

Ca$h-McMoney!

Centre of attention:
Yup, last night actually happened.

The Oilers road games in California (especially Anaheim) are games I tend to skip. Last night once I was done my work around 9:00 I figured I’d pass, then at the last minute thought that maybe, just maybe, the Oilers had a chance given Anaheim’s early season struggles. Glad I turned it on.

All I kept thinking about during the game was that if Ryan Getzlaf was Rygor Getzlav the announcers would still be bringing up that soft game losing pass every four seconds.

Wolfie

G Money,

My point is, which you seem to be ignoring, is that wasn’t Purcell’s guy. It was a defensive breakdown. Somebody got sucked out of position. We complain about the fire drills in the Oilers end and the lack of structure. Well when you get guys running around trying to cover other guy’s assignments that’s when chaos ensues and a man gets free. Which is exactly what happened on that goal.

Purcell was doing his job. At a certain point you need to trust that your teammates will do theirs.

Centre of attention

Yup, last night actually happened.

Colieo87

Aaaa

Dominoiler

G Money:
You know why the Oilers won this game?

Because they were only down ONE GOAL after yet another slow goddamn start.15 minutes of flatline before some 1000V switch gets flipped.It’s ridiculous.

In case you don’t feel like pulling up the chart, take a look here:

http://i.imgur.com/O7jl9IC.png

Two things, what is this chart showing in the y-axis and, minor disagreement, it looks to me like the oiler spike corresponds with the goal against..

Cheers, (edit, shot attempts, NM)

russ99

Two things to take from last nights game:

1. Drai has to stay on the Hall/RNH line. We went from 2 lines that were clicking to none, and now we’re back to 1.

2. We found a key to win games. Get to OT where nobody can skate with us.

Zelepukin: I miss Jultz, said no on ever. Seriously.

Schultz still has a place on the team, and I expect him to improve further in the D zone, where pre-injury he already plays better than half our defensemen. He’s also our best puck mover. He’d be a lot better on the power play with a D who has a big shot, though.

Did you see Hall after the winning goal? Tell me again that the guy doesn’t want to win…

Zelepukin

edwards_daddy:
Klefbom with 8 pts, and Sekera with 7pts – nice to see some points from the back end – we haven’t seen that for a while.
Last 40pt season from a D-man was Sheldon Souray back in 08/09.

I miss Jultz, said no on ever. Seriously.

Colieo87

So I have to reply to see more then two comments initially when I load the Web page lol

Colieo87

Hey sup

v4ance

An observation about the 3 on 3 OT. It only lasted 76 seconds but the Oilers had possession for about 60 seconds.

Anaheim only controlled the puck for 2 forays into the Oilers zone and both times it was a solo rush with Anaheim keeping 2 players back. Conversely, Edmonton had all three players engaged in a cycle game putting constant pressure in the Ducks zone. Edmonton went for it and Anaheim tried to be conservative and passive. The last on the fly change for Anaheim was bad since slow footed Purcell of all people got behind them for the breakaway.

RexLibris

So Arizona tomorrow.

LA on Saturday.

Then three days off before Chicago.

Win in Arizona and you can look at LA as one game where you give it all you have.

Frank the dog

Clay: Gryba keeps getting run out there, while Reinhart, Davidson, and Fayne all get to sit at different points.How much of this is the coaches perception that he needs a big gritty type to go up against big forwards like Getzlaf/Perry, results be damned?

I would like to see a Reinhart – Davidson duo, with Gryba eating the popcorn.Worth a shot.

This is a tryout game. He’s giving people he’s not sure of, a chance to prove themselves. He’s sitting the ones he’s sure about at that level – both ways. What else makes sense?

edwards_daddy

Klefbom with 8 pts, and Sekera with 7pts – nice to see some points from the back end – we haven’t seen that for a while.
Last 40pt season from a D-man was Sheldon Souray back in 08/09.

v4ance

hunter1909:
I’d trade Eberle+(run of the mill prospects etc) for Corey Perry in a Hollywood heartbeat.

Corey Perry would be perfect for this team.

No
No
NO

Perry is 30 years old and carries an $8.625 million cap hit for the next 6 years.
Eberle is 25 years old ad carries a $6 million cap hit for the next 4 years.

First this would be trading a player coming into his prime years at a CHEAPER contract for a player entering his declining years on a bigger ticket. He might not become like Lecavalier but it could be that bad once he hits 35.

Second it would mean that we would lose the cap room for a second player ($2.625 million) who could help the team on the bottom 6.

Lastly, Perry has an NMC. What makes you think he’ll waive it for a team that hasn’t been in the playoffs for 9 years, instead of staying with a team that still could win the cup this year.

In essence, you have suggested the same thing as a Loui Eriksson for Seguin trade.

Also, if we’re going to seriously consider trading Eberle, we don’t need another scoring forward. We need a top 2 Defenceman more.

Professor Q

Henry: McDavid will win and it won’t be close.

3 months is a very long time…

Professor Q

D: As long as the Oilers go down as the Edmonton Oilers of Stanley Cups, it’s all good losing out on the Calders.

Absolutely. It’s the funny quirks that add to the story, though.

PerryK

Woodguy: I certainly saw Reinhart as the worse of the two.

I’d run Davidson tomorrow w/ Gryba.

I usually seem to see things similar to you, but I saw Gryba very bad (much worse than Rhino) tonight. I would sit Gryba.

G Money

dangilitis,

Ha, that might have even been me! Right now, I”m using a distance rather than location based method for calculating danger. The reason for that is that I haven’t got a solution that I like for solving the arena bias issue (it’s easy to do for distance but not for location). I’m experimenting with an approach that uses distance and angle.

dangilitis

Speaking of schedules, Calgary’s next 5 games: TBL, WSH (BTB on road), CHI, NJD, CHI.

dangilitis

G Money: They also need to get it in their heads that they didn’t win a single game against those guys last year, the worst or second worst team in the league by a mile, and be rightfully embarrassed.

Improvement from last year is all about beating lousy teams, and as hot (and lucky) as the Dogs have been, the Oilers need to go at them with everything they’ve got.

Absolutely, I had mentioned it over the weekend but 1/10 points against a division rival that can only outwork you is not acceptable this year, McDavid or not.

PerryK

Woodguy:

I agree completely. Take Letestu off that line!

dangilitis

G Money:
dangilitis,

Yes, it’s important to bear in mind that the danger rating is only looking at the type and location, not the circumstance.

So it will underserve ‘all alone’ type of goals, for sure.

There’s also the issue of data quality – the NHL has really wide error bars on its locations, which tend to cancel out with sample size, so the danger ratings of the team or of players is probably going to be OK, but when looking at a single goal, it’s going to have those same wide error bars.

The main intent of danger rating is that it is a substantial upgrade from just the raw counts (in my opinion), but it’s not a perfect metric, by any means.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s not a slight – the difference between the 2 teams tonight in that metric overall is damning, and consistent with the old eye test. It’s just funny that the shots leading to goals seemed about even in terms of danger, save for Klefbom’s goal. I recall someone else presenting data previously that looked at “danger zones” (e.g. incorporating distance and angle)

G Money

dangilitis:
I know it sounds silly, but a team with confidence would look at the game tomorrow against the Coyotes and realize its importance (despite 2nd game of BTB) – regulation win puts them 3 pts out of a playoff position…

They also need to get it in their heads that they didn’t win a single game against those guys last year, the worst or second worst team in the league by a mile, and be rightfully embarrassed.

Improvement from last year is all about beating lousy teams, and as hot (and lucky) as the Dogs have been, the Oilers need to go at them with everything they’ve got.

D

Professor Q: Damn on both accounts. The Oilers may go down as the Buffalo Bills of Calder Trophies.

As long as the Oilers go down as the Edmonton Oilers of Stanley Cups, it’s all good losing out on the Calders.

G Money

Good comment about ‘toughness of schedule’ from Mr. Terry Jones:

Oilers 0-6 vs Central, 3-2 vs West and 3-2 vs East. Only play one Central team (Blackhawks here next week) the rest of November.— Terry Jones (@sunterryjones) November 12, 2015

dangilitis

I know it sounds silly, but a team with confidence would look at the game tomorrow against the Coyotes and realize its importance (despite 2nd game of BTB) – regulation win puts them 3 pts out of a playoff position…

G Money

Clay,

Me too. I do think it might be fair to say that Gryba was on par with Reinhart (the DFA/60 still has Reinhart ahead by a nose), but that would be pretty much the first time.

Why Gryba hasn’t sat at all is a mystery.

I’d like to see a Reinhart-Davidson duo tried before a Gryba-Davidson duo.

G Money

dangilitis,

Yes, it’s important to bear in mind that the danger rating is only looking at the type and location, not the circumstance.

So it will underserve ‘all alone’ type of goals, for sure. Backhands also in general have a much lower likelihood of going in (at any distance) vs wrist shots, so that would have played a part as well.

There’s also the issue of data quality – the NHL has really wide error bars on its locations, which tend to cancel out with sample size, so the danger ratings of the team or of players is probably going to be OK, but when looking at a single goal, it’s going to have those same wide error bars.

The main intent of danger rating is that it is a substantial upgrade from just the raw counts (in my opinion), but it’s not a perfect metric, by any means.

Gerta Rauss

TMac post game audio

http://oilers.nhl.com/club/podcastplayer.htm?pid=98&iid=52675

-Our performance was resilient…strong…not an easy building to play in…I thought we held our own

-an exciting last 20-25 minutes of the game for our group and we needed that

-Leon is a horse for our team….a really important piece to our hockey club right now

Colieo87

Omg Im not watching the games cause this teamhas to be consistent. But from the sounds of it the game could of gone south really fast. We can’t play like that guys. And celebrate thst the oilers won. The ducks could of ended this fast. Eberle sounds hurt from the comments. Lordy Lordy # catch a break real fast oilers on injury problem

dangilitis

G Money:
Shot data is up: https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/11/12/g16-2015-11-11-oilers-at-ducks-shot-and-distance-data/

While I defended Reinhart on that one goal, overall he and Gryba were absolutely destroyed.I haven’t seen a DFA/60 that bad yet this season.Incredibly bad.

Isn’t “danger score” a bit flawed if Purcell going in uncontested with a perfectly placed backhander is a 1.8, whereas the Perry bankshot off Nurse’s skate is a 2.3? I like the metric but the context of some of these goals is not captured as well.

First time reviewing the data, great work here!

Clay

So Nilsson – at a .919 sp now.

If we conveniently forget about the Washington game, he’s .939

Talbot wept.

(edit: he’s .912 not .919)

dangilitis

http://oilersnation.com/2015/11/11/waiting-on-connor

Nothing pleases me more when Brownlee is wrong – about Yak, and about anything related to Oilers. He uses such simple facts such as the start in October, while neglecting who the team has been playing against and what the team’s record in November was last year. No one is predicting a playoff appearance, but suggesting 60-70 pts is not rational on many levels. He says his guess is as good as mine, but he’s wrong. It has to be better than a 0-10 pt improvement, even without McDavid for 20-30 games. Small sample, but the team is 2-2 since McDavid was injured (I count the Philly game because he left with the team down a goal), with 3/4 games against very good teams.

But seriously, can the team catch a fucking break. Refs – Nail falls and Duck flopping results in key call against Edm, then flagrant Stewart elbow missed. Hendricks re-injured.

3 stars on NHL.com are a joke. Purcell 1st star? Draisaitl, Perry, Nuge or Nilsson would have been the right order, no?

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&report=points&season=20152016&gameType=2&aggregate=0&pos=S

#1, 12, 36, 41 in points per game right now. Eat your heart out, Kane and Seguin…

SwedishPoster

Outside of Nilsson not a great night for Chias pick ups. Letestu couldnt even win face offs tonight.

Colieo87

Hey

PerryK

G Money: The problem is, there was one Duck behind the net, and three in front.Gryba did a poor job covering behind the net, and Reinhart covered his guy (#67) who was the first to drive the net.

#29 was against the boards, with both Lander and Eberle, and Purcell was in the slot.

When #29 released, both guys let him go.As you say, tag that one on Lander the C, not Eberle the winger.

But the fourth guy in on the play HAS to be covered by a winger.There is no one else left.And that winger was Purcell, who watched Horcoff basically skate right past him and didn’t even budge.

What he said!

Good observation. By the way, 67 is Rakell. Way better than I expected he would be.

Woodguy

I think Eberle re-injured his shoulder.

Landed on it awkwardly last shift.

I tweeted a pic.

RexLibris

Woodguy: There no much defending at 103/60

That’s a very accurate sentence, given the context.

Clay

G Money:
Shot data is up: https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/11/12/g16-2015-11-11-oilers-at-ducks-shot-and-distance-data/

While I defended Reinhart on that one goal, overall he and Gryba were absolutely destroyed.I haven’t seen a DFA/60 that bad yet this season.Incredibly bad.

Gryba keeps getting run out there, while Reinhart, Davidson, and Fayne all get to sit at different points. How much of this is the coaches perception that he needs a big gritty type to go up against big forwards like Getzlaf/Perry, results be damned?

I would like to see a Reinhart – Davidson duo, with Gryba eating the popcorn. Worth a shot.

Woodguy

G Money:
Shot data is up: https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/11/12/g16-2015-11-11-oilers-at-ducks-shot-and-distance-data/

While I defended Reinhart on that one goal, overall he and Gryba were absolutely destroyed.I haven’t seen a DFA/60 that bad yet this season.Incredibly bad.

What a tire fire

Pairing DFA60
A. Sekera D. Nurse 37.8
M. Fayne Klef 42.7
G. Reinhart E. Gryba 103.7

There not much defending at 103/60

Lordy