OH, THOSE OILERS

Emotionally, I’d settled in for a loss. The Nuge couldn’t come out to play, The McDavid is still broken, and the Kings are the Kings in every society. However, those blasted Oilers pulled me in with their fast trains and their slick moves and suddenly it’s almost Saturday night!

And THEN?

Same as it ever was, Same as it ever was, Same as it ever was.

BLUE BY YOU

When defense is poor, smart teams pull back on the youth. I count any player under 100 NHL games as ‘youth’ which means Oscar Klefbom, Brandon Davidson, Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart—fully half the roster—are outside the line.

The problem? Two of the four experienced players (Eric Gryba and Andrew Ference) come with problems of their own, leaving Andrej Sekera and Mark Fayne as the veterans who are stone alone (and both had issues last night). What can Peter Chiarelli do?

When I find myself in times of trouble, CorsiRel comes to me, speaking words of wisdom, let it bleed.

CORSI REL (D) 2015-16

  1. Mark Fayne 12.7
  2. Brandon Davidson 8.3
  3. Oscar Klefbom -0.1
  4. Andrej Sekera -1.5
  5. Justin Schultz -2.2
  6. Eric Gryba -5.6
  7. Darnell Nurse -8.1
  8. Andrew Ference -10.9
  9. Griffin Reinhart -16.2

CorsiRel is a player’s on-ice Corsi% minus the player’s off-ice Corsi%; off-ice Corsi% is the percent of shot attempts taken by the player’s team when the player is not on the ice (but in games where the player is in the lineup); also known as CF Rel%.

So, we’re looking at (as an example) Brandon Davidson outperforming his team my a significant amount, but we have to factor in other elements (qual comp, qual team, etc). I like CorsiRel because it gives me a base line for all defenders and identifies suspects who are perhaps eligible for demotion/trade/waivers.

If we go back to the Vollman Sledgehammer (now up at Hockey Abstract.com)

volllman nov 14

It’s pretty clear what’s going on here. As much as you’re upset about Sekera’s mistakes, Fayne’s mistakes, Klefbom’s mistakes, you’re going to have to live with them. It’s possible to have good numbers and get noticed for negative things—single moments and events can have super importance while being exactly single moments and events.

ALL of the things advanced stats have taught me about defense boil down to this: If you insist on counting the errors on plays, blowing those plays out of proportion and making decisions on those single things, you will be chasing good defense forever. The single biggest BENEFIT of counting things beyond goals is to TELL US what is really happening on the ice.

When a goal goes in from the moon, or a wobbly one from the side, or some numb nuts forward skates it back to his net to make the damned goal against easier, ALL OF THAT is single moments that have super importance but are also single moments. Attach an error all you want, but for God sakes don’t flush the player because dumbass forward put him in a bad spot.

One thing the Rel and the Vollman are screaming at us: The Edmonton Oilers have to split up Griffin Reinhart and Eric Gryba. Now. That’s the lesson from last night’s game. They’re not even playing the toughs, for crying out loud. Now, this.

THINGS TO FEEL GOOD ABOUT

  • Oilers damned near walked away with at least a point in LA last night.
  • Taylor freaking Hall!
  • Leon bloody Draisaitl!
  • Teddy Purcell. Seriously. That man doesn’t just want an NHL contract for next season, he wants an OILERS contract for next season.
  • McDavid will heal.
  • The goalers can’t possibly be this bad.
  • The yutes are gaining experience.
  • Peter Chiarelli is about to do something. He owes it to his team, his coach and those wonderful forwards.

The day is coming, the exit is nigh. The turn north is coming into view. Stop playing Reinhart and Gryba together. It’s the right thing to do.

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222 Responses to "OH, THOSE OILERS"

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  1. John Chambers says:

    Some folks may question his veteran abilities, but I for one am pro-Fayne.

    Like, really fuckin’ pro-Fayne.

  2. dwillms says:

    Stop playing Gryba. Full stop.

    Why has he yet to be a healthy scratch exactly?

  3. stephen sheps says:

    Good morning all,

    look, I know too much youth on the blue is never a good idea, but I am really curious about what Griff and Davidson would actually look like as a pair. Could it work, or would it be too much inexperience leading to further tire fires?

    Gryba needs a night off, maybe 3.

    After the first goal against last night, I just about quit watching, even though I chose to spend my Saturday night in (10PM start times for us (south)easterners is a killer, even worse on work nights) but in the end I’m pleased I stuck with the game. Where did this version of Purcell come from? I like this version. Might have been his best game as an Oiler. Complimentary player who does well with skill, just like he did in Tampa.

  4. stephen sheps says:

    John Chambers:
    Some folks may question his veteran abilities, but I for one am pro-Fayne.

    Like, really fuckin’ pro-Fayne.

    I am too. It’s really a shame he blew a tire on the GWG though, but he’s far better at his job than many of the others, both visually and certainly statistically.

  5. Pouzar says:

    So at least I got to see the overhyped RR get derailed.

    Please give LB a start CHIA.

  6. Frank the dog says:

    From the looks on their faces when LA scored the last goal the players were more frustrated at the loss than any fan outside VD could possibly be. I can watch this team every night if they play like that.
    We also have to figure out what we are doing to our goalies. Cam was amazing lat year in the playoffs.

  7. Ford Prefect says:

    Can we start tracking errors like in baseball as a new stat. Will that help even out the discussions about these players? Could an error charged against a defenseman be used to adjust the goals against for a goalie? Thoughts on this?

  8. Mr DeBakey says:

    Mark Fayne 12.7
    Brandon Davidson 8.3

    Those two have only spent 5:10 together this season. Maybe more is a good idea.

    That last goal was a tough one for Fayne.
    He was extended and couldn’t generate any leverage.
    [I’m trying to watch the games and count the numbers. Multi-task.]

  9. Mr DeBakey says:

    Pouzar: Please give LB a start CHIA.

    At the rate things are going, it won’t be long.
    Montreal needs a real Goaler to back up Price I’d say. Is opportunity knocking?

  10. MOAR WINZ PLEEZ says:

    Love the game last night, hated the result…

    I think a turn to true north has to go through consistency junction

  11. dustrock says:

    John Chambers:
    Some folks may question his veteran abilities, but I for one am pro-Fayne.

    Like, really fuckin’ pro-Fayne.

    I think he’s a better option than Gryba, but why would you be extremely pro-Fayne? His transition game has picked up recently, but I think it’s fair to say he’s been a disappointment overall.

    And LT, you’re right that you can’t focus on the mistakes, but Fayne had I thInk 3(?) different times this year where he couldn’t handle a quick switch and it was a goal against. He continues to make bad pinches .

    Gryba has been bad and yet never gets a rest. I questioned why Reinhart is literally the only member of the D corps who keeps getting the same partner on D.

    Oh well, Klefbom has turned a corner and Draisaitl played center in LA and more than held his own.

  12. Pouzar says:

    Mr DeBakey: At the rate things are going, it won’t be long.
    Montreal needs a real Goaler to back up Price I’d say. Is opportunity knocking?

    Those are ghastly save %s for Talbot and at some point you have to reward your prospects.
    I am for one think LB can actually help this team win. Worth a try.

  13. dustrock says:

    Also, I think it was Dustin Neilson who said the Oilers look much better most nights but they’re still in 30th place.

    Take away McDavid and we’re the worst team in the NHL? Say it ain’t so.

  14. TemujinBC says:

    Watching Leon Draisaitl so far this season just reinforces (again) the whole theme of “wasting ELC years”.

    We all want the turn north to be one a dime, but even with the bright spots last night it’s a slow 18-wheeler turn on a snowy November night.

    The bets on D and in G have not panned out. Same as it ever was, indeed.

  15. Pouzar says:

    As I went through the comments section last night in a drunken stupor I believe G said the Oilers gave up less dangerous chances than the Kings?

  16. Mr DeBakey says:

    dustrock: I think he’s a better option than Gryba, but why would you be extremely pro-Fayne?

    The Humour Columnist Dave Barry would occasionally write a column for the humour-impaired.
    He’d explain each joke as he went through the column.

  17. Gret99zky says:

    I hope Chia does something.

    Sometimes you gotta decide what you got and what you need and make a move.

  18. SoCaloil says:

    The story last night is really Leon
    Played C against a true opponent and succeeded
    Strong back checking , strong on the puck and smart decisions

    Purcell wheeled. Wow

    And bloody hell even Gadzook made a hockey play. He didn’t touch the puck mind you, but he did screen the G

    Is Talbot woven from the same fabric as scrivens? Good grief. Cover the post and stop playing the puck.

    Klefbom played great

    Reinhart needs to sit a game and nurse needs to not play top D
    His negative corsi is a result of playing too high up the food chain
    I’m starting to like the concept of
    Klefbom-Sekera
    But then what do you do with the bottom 4 if you don’t play reinhart gryba together
    Oy

    Fayne – nurse/Davidson
    Gryba/reinhart – Schultz?

    And Ference is eating popcorn and we don’t have a spare F
    Ouch

  19. böök¡je says:

    Anyone wondering how Scrivens is doing in the minors – 0.826 in three games.

  20. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAint'sSo! says:

    Had a good friend text me this morning to ask what has gone wrong. Tried to get me going but I didn’t have the will to fight back.

    They need a goalie any goalie hell any combination of goalies to come out with two solid efforts in a row. What do I mean by solid effort, glad you asked.

    1) under no circumstances can you give up a goal in the opening 5 minutes. You have to keep your team alive off the start, you have to bail them out here.

    2) be aggressive in the net. This can take many forms. As I said last night I don’t care if it isn’t his style but Cam Talbpt playing deep in his crease is costing him big time. this goes for Nilsson as well, it’ll be tough to get beat with little chintzy goals on the short side if you’re cutting down that angle.

    3) Help you defense out and start making it difficult for guys to stand in front of you. This should also be mentioned to the dmen but start laying lumber on guys that stand in front. People cross check hall when he tries to move into a screen, feel free to return the favor.

    4) And this is the most difficult part of all. Someone needs to believe they can be a starter in the NHL, the look on Talbot’s face after his last couple of starts should be terrifying for fans. He’s got some major confidence issues right now and I really hope he can pull himself out of it.

    5) Hard to say this but the team is going to need to steal a couple for the goalies here. They got back into Edmonton late last night, they’re at home in their own beds with three days until the Chicago game. Sleep, good food, early nights and a few practices should help.

    Go Oilers (clap clap)

  21. slopitch says:

    Costly mistakes were the difference. They played well enough vs a great team but shot themselves in the foot.

    Anton Lander was looking good then those 2 penalties
    Sekera and the Talbot on the first goal
    Grybas passing all game
    Gryba’s coverage on the spin around goal
    Talbots pass on the last one

    Critical errors with the team down Nuge.

    I think the ability to not do this comes from learning from the lessons, coaching and ultimately success (winning).

    That said, Drai and Hall were splendid. Nuge and McDavid will be back the tut north is coming but ma the current output from the team is frustrating as hell.

  22. Kmart99 says:

    Heartbreaking. The losses this year have been particularly hard to stomach.

    CMD’s disallowed goal.
    CGY scoring from a bad angle with 8s left.
    Andrew Ference passing it to the other team in the slot for goals.
    Lander taking two dumbass penalties.
    Goaltending good when the team plays pooorly. Goaltending bad when the team plays well.

    Meanwhile, Hall is playing the best hockey of his career. He is laying it all on the line for this team, and 2-3 guys fuck it up for everyone almost every game.

    Woodguy, I’d be happy to lose my bet with you. The top guys are really playing well, and this team could easily be 9-9 right now. EASILY.

  23. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAint'sSo! says:

    Has anyone heard if Schultz has started skating yet? It’ll be 3 weeks he’s been out come Tuesday and they originally called for 2-4 week stint on the IR

  24. Adam Wu says:

    It’s possible to have good numbers and get noticed for negative things—single moments and events can have super importance while being exactly single moments and events.

    This is Observer Bias, and is the reason why, in every single field of human study, from the profound to the trivial, the numbers always, always, always, ultimately prove superior to “seen it so” type analysis.

    The key is you have to use the right kind of numbers.

    Advanced stats in hockey may not have developed that far yet. People still talk about the “one-third variability”, the idea that 33% of everything is still “chance”. That isn’t chance. That is the aspect of the game that our current numbers cannot adequately measure. Some of it is true chance, but some of it is not.

  25. Lowetide says:

    slopitch:
    Sekera and the Talbot on the first goal

    Was there a forward involved in that goal? Can’t recall.

  26. Adam Wu says:

    For example, goalies, very likely, are NOT “voodoo”. They are simply “not accurately measurable at the moment.”

    (Of course, that is one of the lesser used definitions of “voodoo”….)

  27. leadfarmer says:

    How long is Schultz out for? Will make things interesting when he gets back. Can’t keep 9 dmen on the roster

  28. OilClog says:

    Too bad Faynes single moment again costed a seriously back breaking goal against. He got taken to school by a forward in the Kings Bottom 6.

    He’s suppose to be the defender that goal doesn’t happen against. He’s not.

  29. Adam Wu says:

    To turn north from putrid, you have to pass through bad.

    To turn north from hopeless, you have to enter “hope over the horizon, constantly dashed” land.

    The team will appear to be out of the playoffs again before the end of November. This was readily predictable right from the moment the schedule was released.

    What will make or break this season is whether or not the upturn occurs in December and January. Good teams have started slowly, with records identical to what the Oilers have now, only to turn their seasons around with extended hot streaks in mid-winter, that catapult them all the way back into the playoff mix. The Oilers aren’t good enough for that kind of turnaround. But they could end the season encroaching on playoff contention territory. It may never actually feel like they are in it, because they’ll be coming from so far back, but when the final standings are done, they could be within a reasonable margin, points-wise.

  30. Woodguy says:

    Here’s a Dman stat I bring up from time to time.

    Its Fenwick Against/60 – Opponent’s Fenwick For/60

    Stats.hockeyanalysis has these stats available.

    I like it because the “Opponent’s Fenwick For/60” is the aggregate FF/60 of all the players that particular player has played against.

    There’s no need to take into account deployment because how the opposition does (their FF/60)away from that player is already taken into account.

    So you don’t get penalized if you play mostly against Kane and the other guy plays mostly against John Scott.

    Its also only an “against” stat, so playing with Taylor Hall has less of an impact than if you combine For/Against. It helps us boil out any non-Dman driven information.

    Here are the Oilers Dmen so far in FA/60 – OppFF/60. Negative numbers mean the player is allowing less than average, positive means more than average.

    DAVIDSON, BRANDON -6
    KLEFBOM, OSCAR -5.11
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN -3.15
    FAYNE, MARK -2.17
    FERENCE, ANDREW -0.51
    SEKERA, ANDREJ 1.31
    NURSE, DARNELL 2.34
    GRYBA, ERIC 2.84
    REINHART, GRIFFIN 5.79

  31. hopelessoilfan says:

    I missed the first half of the game last night so I can’t speak for the entire game but Purcell cannot keep up to the nhl game. Period. He does some nice things in the defensive zone and on the PK but every breakout dies on his stick because in one stride he manages to be surrounded by the opposing team and he cannot pass well enough to make any use of the puck. His assist on Halls goal was pure luck as he was trying to pass to Hall but was 3 feet behind him and fortunately for him klefbom hit the brakes and was able to salvage the play. That was very near a bad turnover. Eberle should have his spot so that draisaitl and hall have an actual pass option. I can’t wait until Purcell is off of this team

  32. jake70 says:

    Lowetide: Was there a forward involved in that goal? Can’t recall.

    Think that was where Eberle started a breakout from behind his own net, not a great pass to Sekerea – left shot on the right side, got tied up in his stick/skates?

  33. speeds says:

    OilClog:
    Too bad Faynes single moment again costed a seriously back breaking goal against. He got taken to school by a forward in the Kings Bottom 6.

    He’s suppose to be the defender that goal doesn’t happen against. He’s not.

    I guess I should re-watch it, but from memory that was a pretty fast happening sequence of events. Talbot throws it up the boards,, shot on net pretty quickly, then Talbot kicks the rebound out pretty hard into the slot. Sure Fayne could have handled it better, but he had to do a lot of twisting and turning pretty quickly based on how the puck moved, not a super easy play or anything.

  34. tcho says:

    Well, I feel badly about my negativeNelly outburst after the first period last night. There are lots of things to like about that game. Missing their top TWO centres, having a few players clearly battling flu/injuries but still going, playing a great team on the road, the Oil almost pulled out a point and maybe even two.

    They did not get stomped 6-1.

    I think I would sell a body part for league average goalering though. Man.

    Goilers! (clap, clap)

  35. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: Was there a forward involved in that goal? Can’t recall.

    No but Nurse got totally pwned by Gaborik on the edge of the crease. Both 2 & 25 got overwhelmed by hard checking Kings & Talbot was out to lunch bailing them out. Just a brutal start to the game.

  36. Woodguy says:

    Top 30 in the NHL in this metric:

    JACKMAN, BARRET -13.78
    JONES, SETH -11.25
    GELINAS, ERIC -10.75
    SHATTENKIRK, KEVIN -9.41
    VLASIC, MARC-EDOUARD -9.4
    LARSSON, ADAM -9.16
    GREENE, ANDY -9.07
    SCHLEMKO, DAVID -8.38
    BRAUN, JUSTIN -8.34
    STUART, BRAD -8.26
    FORBORT, DEREK -8.23
    EKBLAD, AARON -7.99
    GUSTAFSSON, ERIK -7.76
    ALZNER, KARL -7.75
    BORTUZZO, ROBERT -7.69
    WEBER, MIKE -7.52
    EKHOLM, MATTIAS -7.42
    LILES, JOHN-MICHAEL -7.08
    PARAYKO, COLTON -6.48
    JORDAN, MICHAL -6.47
    EDMUNDSON, JOEL -6.24
    NISKANEN, MATT -6.17
    DAVIDSON, BRANDON -6
    ORLOV, DMITRY -5.7
    KULIKOV, DMITRY -5.66
    ELLIS, RYAN -5.64
    GUNNARSSON, CARL -5.52
    CHORNEY, TAYLOR -5.34
    KLEFBOM, OSCAR -5.11
    WEBER, YANNICK -5.08

    I think we see some team effects for sure. NAS, NJD and STL just allow way less shots than most.

  37. Ice Sage says:

    The Oilers are better than last year.
    For a flu-riddled, 1 and 2 C-less, end-of-road trip situation last night, they made a game of it ’til the very end – that kind of effort will beat 2/3 of the teams in the league (19 times out of 20). Compared to the crew that limped out of LA last year, this is progress.
    The culture change is a necessarily slow process but I think the Oilers are at the tail end of their losing ways – reminds me of the old quote about a team deserving to win games near the end of a losing streak.

  38. Death By Misadventure says:

    With King Leon raising his NHL bonafides with each game, and Teddy riding a unicorn rainbow of success, could these forward lines bring us closer to victory in a not too distant future?

    Taylor “The Human Corsi Machine” – “Up a Creek with Leon and a Paddle” – “Duracell” Purcell
    “Chicken Benny” – “McHayZeus Got the Juice” – “Rusty” Nail Yakuza
    “Jimi” Hendricks – “The Golden Nuge” – “Pushing the River of” Jordan Eberle

    After that some combination of Lander and Letestu with a revolving case of characters.

    Small sample sizes and all that, but I’d like to see it if for no other reason to see Nuge take his rightful spot as the most success 3rd line centre in the NHL.

    I don’t want to talk about the defence. It’s too depressing.

  39. Bruce McCurdy says:

    hopelessoilfan:
    I missed the first half of the game last night so I can’t speak for the entire game but Purcell cannot keep up to the nhl game. Period. He does some nice things in the defensive zone and on the PK but every breakout dies on his stick because in one stride he manages to be surrounded by the opposing team and he cannot pass well enough to make any use of the puck. His assist on Halls goal was pure luck as he was trying to pass to Hall but was 3 feet behind him and fortunately for him klefbom hit the brakes and was able to salvage the play. That was very near a bad turnover. Eberle should have his spot so that draisaitl and hall have an actual pass option. I can’t wait until Purcell is off of this team

    you are seriously criticizing Teddy Purcell after THAT game? Wow. Just wow.

  40. Woodguy says:

    Bottom 30 in the NHL via this metric:

    ELLIOTT, STEFAN 5.27
    GOLOUBEF, CODY 5.36
    STRAIT, BRIAN 5.37
    KLINGBERG, JOHN 5.48
    DEKEYSER, DANNY 5.59
    HOLZER, KORBINIAN 5.61
    MEDVEDEV, EVGENY 5.62
    JOHNSON, JACK 5.73
    REINHART, GRIFFIN 5.79
    COLE, IAN 5.9
    SVEDBERG, VIKTOR 6.09
    SBISA, LUCA 6.21
    BOYCHUK, JOHNNY 6.23
    BOYLE, DAN 6.31
    STAAL, MARC 6.93
    GUENIN, NATE 7.36
    STREIT, MARK 7.44
    BOROWIECKI, MARK 7.46
    GROSSMANN, NICKLAS 7.61
    MURPHY, CONNOR 8.14
    HOLDEN, NICK 8.49
    BARRIE, TYSON 8.52
    FOLIN, CHRISTIAN 8.79
    CECI, CODY 8.95
    GIRARDI, DAN 9.24
    COWEN, JARED 9.35
    WIDEMAN, CHRIS 9.91
    GUDBRANSON, ERIK 11.43
    MITCHELL, WILLIE 14.15

    Willie got old this year. Was pretty good last year.

  41. verdad2.0 says:

    “fancy stats” are over-rated. Watch the games. Watch the moment in the games where losers lose, and winners win.
    The Oilers are full of losers and ringette players.
    But some, in particularly Chiarelli, can’t come to terms with this.
    There is no accountability in this organization. None.
    Talbot does not desire to be in the NHL, start with releasing him this morning. Call up Boissoit.
    Chiarelli could actually do that. He won’t the team will continue to tank. He will savor it.
    He could release Gryba ,and commit to Davidson, but won’t.

    The claim he is poised to do something has no credibility. He is so invested in “vindication” that he is willing to waste this entire season. Otherwise, explain why Gryba plays but can’t do what a modern NHL has to do? Why was Talbot allowed to play when his last three starts have caused the Oilers to lose he is more accountable than any other for them losing when the games could have been won.

    Then there are Chiarelli’s more strategic failures. This team cannot win without a goalie and genuine #1 defenseman. The Oiler have assets like Eberle and Yakupov that still tradeable despite all Oiler fans knowing they are either total busts or total soft floaters. Why they weren’t flushed out this past summer is hard to understand.

    And then there is OEL for Hall. A deal that might still be doable, and is strategically imperative.

    But expect nothing from Chiarelli, just more Talbot, Gryba , Fayne, Ference, Korpikoski, Gazdic, Letestu, and Schultz.

    We are the worst team in the NHL. We have less points than what Eakins achieved.

    That is on Chiarelli and MacLelland.

    Contemplate the horror of that after ten years of abuse of this fan base. He does nothing, did nothing. And worst what he did made the team worse. Ponder that. He has made things worse.

  42. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: you are seriously criticizing Teddy Purcell after THAT game? Wow. Just wow.

    I hate Oiler fans.

  43. tcho says:

    hopelessoilfan:
    I missed the first half of the game last night so I can’t speak for the entire game but Purcell cannot keep up to the nhl game. Period. He does some nice things in the defensive zone and on the PK but every breakout dies on his stick because in one stride he manages to be surrounded by the opposing team and he cannot pass well enough to make any use of the puck. His assist on Halls goal was pure luck as he was trying to pass to Hall but was 3 feet behind him and fortunately for him klefbom hit the brakes and was able to salvage the play. That was very near a bad turnover. Eberle should have his spot so that draisaitl and hall have an actual pass option. I can’t wait until Purcell is off of this team

    What colour is the sky in your world? Seriously. Purcy had postivie EVCF against almost every King (see Oilersnerdalert), and several commentators (including Willis, Ireland, and GMOney) saw him good by eye.

    I’m not a huge fan of Purcell, but even I have to admit he’s been playing some good games for us lately, and that last game was great.

  44. Woodguy says:

    Early returns on Reinhart are not good.

    Long road ahead and injuries have played a part, but that former #4 overall 21 year old may not be ready for the NHL.

    He’s being seriously outplayed by everyone not named Ference, and that might be debatable.

  45. Bruce McCurdy says:

    speeds: I guess I should re-watch it, but from memory that was a pretty fast happening sequence of events.Talbot throws it up the boards,, shot on net pretty quickly, then Talbot kicks the rebound out pretty hard into the slot.Sure Fayne could have handled it better, but he had to do a lot of twisting and turning pretty quickly based on how the puck moved, not a super easy play or anything.

    The shot wasn’t even on the net & would have slid wide except Talbot was scrambling & unsure of his net so he kicked it out & punted the rebound right into the high danger zone. Just a brutal play by the goalie. Then Fayne crapped the bed in the slot, & Leon couldnt block the shot but Could screen Talbot. Another CF with time running out & the game on the line.

  46. blainer says:

    Pouzar:
    So at least I got to see the overhyped RR get derailed.

    Please give LB a start CHIA.

    This.

    LB is playing fantastic on a team that has been seriously hamstrung with the call ups.

    As I said before the only thing that may be holding him back is management may be worried his confidence will go south in a hurry with this D. Try and find a decent possession D from the west to trade for.

    Sit Gryba for a bit and put Fayne and Davidson together.

    Do NOT play Ference EVER !!

  47. Ice Sage says:

    Bruce McCurdy: you are seriously criticizing Teddy Purcell after THAT game? Wow. Just wow.

    Yeah, for real – wrong scapegoat. Purcell has great hands. Last night he had some wheels too. As the broadcaster said, a fine complementary player.

  48. tcho says:

    Teddy Purcell – 66% EVCF overall last night. Yep. Let’s have less of that.

  49. zatch says:

    If Chia hasn’t dangled the 1st rounder of Edmonton by now…
    Good D are hard to lever out with a trade though. We are here because of shit drafting, bad luck, and incompetent, worthless management. I don’t know if Edmonton gets out of here. It’s November 15, 2015, and the Edmonton Fucking Oilers are tied for last in the NHL. Same as it ever was indeed.

  50. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Ford Prefect:
    Can we start tracking errors like in baseball as a new stat. Will that help even out the discussions about these players? Could an error charged against a defenseman be used to adjust the goals against for a goalie? Thoughts on this?

    This is not a new stat as David Staples tracked errors on goals against (& contributions over & above points on goals for) for years. For his efforts he was largely rewarded with shit & abuse from the Oilogosphere.
    Nowadays he does a similar, even more labour intensive project on all scoring chances but doesnt tend to isolate goals as he once did. i for one found Errors (& unofficial assists) a useful judgement call.

  51. speeds says:

    zatch:
    If Chia hasn’t dangled the 1st rounder of Edmonton by now…
    Good D are hard to lever out with a trade though. We are here because of shit drafting, bad luck, and incompetent, worthless management. I don’t know if Edmonton gets out of here. It’s November 15, 2015, and the Edmonton Fucking Oilers are tied for last in the NHL. Same as it ever was indeed.

    Why would he do that now? They are in last place, the pick is way too valuable.

  52. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy:
    Willie got old this year.Was pretty good last year.

    Willie Mitchell is probably the high watermark for Reinhart. Which is fine. But the Oilers need him to be there today and he’s not close.

    They need to make one of those things called a trade. O for D.

  53. Bank Shot says:

    speeds: Why would he do that now?They are in last place, the pick is way too valuable.

    That’s a good reason to trade the pick now. Its most valuable when its first overall.

    If you believe the Oilers are going to climb the standings the value of the pick will never be higher than it is today.

  54. zatch says:

    speeds,

    “Why would he try to trade an asset when it’s at its peak value?”
    This board is full of people who want the D fixed, but think scratching Gryba makes this team a middle of the pack squad. It’s not. This team needs High-end D. That has a cost. It should at least be looked at.

  55. leadfarmer says:

    hopelessoilfan:
    I missed the first half of the game last night so I can’t speak for the entire game but Purcell cannot keep up to the nhl game. Period. He does some nice things in the defensive zone and on the PK but every breakout dies on his stick because in one stride he manages to be surrounded by the opposing team and he cannot pass well enough to make any use of the puck. His assist on Halls goal was pure luck as he was trying to pass to Hall but was 3 feet behind him and fortunately for him klefbom hit the brakes and was able to salvage the play. That was very near a bad turnover. Eberle should have his spot so that draisaitl and hall have an actual pass option. I can’t wait until Purcell is off of this team

    Ooh, ooh. Do Hall next.
    But seriously Purcell has been playing very wall last couple games

  56. Woodguy says:

    Sekera – Actual NHL Dman
    Klefbom – Fayne
    Nurse – Schultz
    Davidson

    I’d like to see that for a while.

  57. G Money says:

    Pouzar:
    As I went through the comments section last night ina drunken stupor I believe G said the Oilers gave up less dangerous chances than the Kings?

    Your drunken memory is correct. My Dangerous Fenwick swings that game from a raw Fenwick % of 45.5 to danger-adjusted Fenwick of 51.8% for the good guys. Helluva swing.

    Reminder: DFF% counts all shots just like raw Fenwick or Corsi, but unlike those two, it does not treat all shots as equal. It weights closer shots more heavily than far shots, and dangerous shot types (e.g. slap) more heavily than less dangerous (e.g. backhand) shots. The shot weights are based on a smoothed curve using five years of shot data.

    The average Oiler shot was 3 ft closer to the net (29 ft vs 33 ft) and the balance of shot types was similar so I’d say that’s what the statistic is showing.

    I haven’t yet vetted it in comparison to the War On Ice, DTM, or Staples metrics to see if they agree or disagree.

  58. blainer says:

    Bruce McCurdy: you are seriously criticizing Teddy Purcell after THAT game? Wow. Just wow.

    Yup. That comment made no sense at this time.

  59. Death By Misadventure says:

    Woodguy: GRYBA, ERIC 2.84
    REINHART, GRIFFIN 5.79

    So if I take LT’s Corsi Rel for the D and Woodguy’s stat here, shouldn’t all the calls be for Griff to sit? By these statistical measures, Gryba is eating his lunch and drinking his coffee.

  60. speeds says:

    Bank Shot,
    zatch,

    They should absolutely look at everything, but because of how the lottery works now, no one is going to give them value as though it’s a 1OV pick.

    I would be surprised if they can get, via trade today, what the pick is actually worth (IMO), which is why I’d be pretty surprised if he moved, but you’re both correct that you look at everything.

    To get to 90 points, the Oilers would need to go something like 37-23-4 at this point.

  61. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy,

    Remember the talk we had last year about Jones becoming a top level defensemen. It’s happening. And he just turned 21.

  62. blainer says:

    Woodguy:
    Early returns on Reinhart are not good.

    Long road ahead and injuries have played a part, but that former #4 overall 21 year old may not be ready for the NHL.

    He’s being seriously outplayed by everyone not named Ference, and that might be debatable.

    Yup he needs to play with a vet. A demotion is coming when the team is healthy. That Drai though. Injuries have really helped his standing. Nurse as well.

  63. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot: Willie Mitchell is probably the high watermark for Reinhart. Which is fine. But the Oilers need him to be there today and he’s not close.

    They need to make one of those things called a trade. O for D.

    I wonder was STL would want for Shattenkirk?

    They need to free up $$$ to sign Backes and Schwarz next year.

    Edmunson and especially Parayko have come in and secured jobs on the STL blue line.

    Wonder if Reinhart + 1st (lottery win protected) gets that done?

    That feels like too much.

  64. Dr. Taboggan says:

    If Chia is going to make a bigish trade have to think this 3 day break is the perfect time. Still earlyish in the season. Shattenkirk is almost healthy. St. Loo has some young D that they trust. Maybe Katz completes the time machine and they can bring back 25 year old Kevin Lowe?

  65. Woodguy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy,

    Remember the talk we had last year about Jones becoming a top level defensemen.It’s happening.And he just turned 21.

    I like Jones.

    He’s also playing 3rd pairing with Jackman on NSH.

    That’s a good spot to be in.

    They are 63.1% CF and 80%GF together.

    Now that’s a 3rd pairing!

  66. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Woodguy,

    What would Shattenkirk cost? 2016 1st, Gryba, and a prospect, perhaps Yakimov?
    Is that too much? What would you pay for Shatter?

  67. RT26 says:

    Sad that we lost, but I have watched many games this year and love the way this team fights and does not give up. We have no luck this year and the refs seem to have it out for us, but even after soul crushing losses, this team keeps fighting.

    I do wonder if Chia had kept Gordon and not traded for Korpse, how much better we’d be.

    I also think Woodguy’s dream of 3 scoring lines is in view later this season:

    Hall. Drai. Purcell
    Pouliot. CMD. Yakupov
    Lander. Nuge. Eberle.
    Hendricks. Letestu. Klink

  68. Lackadaisical says:

    G Money, if you’re around,

    Basically what I mean is that to my way of thinking, the data on the defensive end is too bunched up. I’m wondering if driving the stats from offense has it backwards, and throwing out data. Once the highest average danger zones are complete, wouldn’t it be better to break it up into:
    1) How often that team (or perhaps line, or even down to each player on the ice for each attempt) is likely to give up a a spot – how dangerous is that danger zone to that team when they’re playing D
    2) How often the individual goalie has let in a shot from each danger zone – how dangerous is each danger zone to each goalie

    I feel/wonder if this gives you something more relative to compare to the offense. How often is your offense attacking zones/taking shots, that the d is likely to give up? How often is a player able to shoot from an area where the goalie has had trouble making the save? It also allows you to separate goalie from D in some ways, but also to highlight where the D fails and leaves up big problems for the goalie.

    TLDR: I guess I’m suggesting sort of an adjusted danger zone percentage for both team (on chances), and the goalie (on goals), to use as a frame of reference when comparing the O.

  69. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: This is not a new stat as David Staples tracked errors on goals against (& contributions over & above points on goals for) for years. For his efforts he was largely rewarded with shit & abuse from the Oilogosphere.
    Nowadays he does a similar, even more labour intensive project on all scoring chances but doesnt tend to isolate goals as he once did. i for one found Errors (& unofficial assists) a useful judgement call.

    I think we’ll eventually do a ‘project scoresheet’ for errors, with a few people involved. I don’t have any specific bias against counting errors but do find bias does exist for all of us. If there were independent counters and a consensus drawn, it could have value. I wouldn’t recommend myself because of my bias, suspect college kids in San Diego would be the ideal candidates for the job.

  70. Woodguy says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    Woodguy,

    What would Shattenkirk cost? 2016 1st, Gryba, and a prospect, perhaps Yakimov?
    Is that too much? What would you pay for Shatter?

    I don’t know.

    I don’t know that he’s suited for 1st either.

    He might be better version of Jultz (which is a good player), but might not be a real NHL 1RD.

    He’d be 1RD on the Oilers by acclimation.

    I think you can get him for futures because STL needs to cut salary.

  71. Ice Sage says:

    Oilers don’t play again ’til Wednesday.
    Should be enough time to get rested, recovered, rehydrated and to practice breakouts from behind the net (no Goalie puck handling!), team defence and more PP.

    I like the idea of packaging next years first, one of Yak or Ebs and a serviceable D (prob Fayne, Ference would be sweeter) for a top 3 RHD. Problem is, there’s no team who wants that right now. The only way I’d not dangle the 1st is if there were an Ekblad or Seth Jones at the top of the draft (there isn’t).

    So, no cavalry coming but the worm will turn this week – e-book it!

  72. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I think we’ll eventually do a ‘project scoresheet’ for errors, with a few people involved. I don’t have any specific bias against counting errors but do find bias does exist for all of us. If there were independent counters and a consensus drawn, it could have value. I wouldn’t recommend myself because of my bias, suspect college kids in San Diego would be the ideal candidates for the job.

    Agreed on hiring the college kids.

    Can’t just count error though.

    Need to count everything and anything. Touches, passes, zone entry denials. etc.

    Too much important stuff never hits the score sheet or grabs a Staples’ eye because nothing was generated at the time, but everything was done well/poorly.

  73. verdad2.0 says:

    Ice Sage,

    OEL for Hall is the play, always has been.

    Who would turn it down if available?

  74. Woodguy says:

    Ice Sage,

    The only way I’d not dangle the 1st is if there were an Ekblad or Seth Jones at the top of the draft (there isn’t).

    A lot of people think Sarnia Dman Jacob Chychrun will be better than both Jones and Ekblad.

    They’re probably right.

  75. hudler1234 says:

    Ice Sage:
    The Oilers are better than last year.
    For a flu-riddled, 1 and 2 C-less, end-of-road trip situation last night, they made a game of it ’til the very end – that kind of effort will beat 2/3 of the teams in the league (19 times out of 20).Compared to the crew that limped out of LA last year, this is progress.
    The culture change is a necessarily slow process but I think the Oilers are at the tail end of their losing ways – reminds me of the old quote about a team deserving to win games near the end of a losing streak.

    the only thing that matters is wins and losses, visually being better means nothing, when you are once again sitting at the bottom of the league, injuries, flus, tough schedules excuses are for losing teams, the only culture change here is they are losing by only 1 goal instead of 3 every night. its an embarassemnt that this team is still hovering around 30th place again.

  76. Lowetide says:

    verdad2.0:
    Ice Sage,

    OEL for Hall is the play, always has been.

    Who would turn it down if available?

    Me.

  77. G Money says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAint’sSo!:
    Has anyone heard if Schultz has started skating yet? It’ll be 3 weeks he’s been out come Tuesday and they originally called for 2-4 week stint on the IR

    Good point.

    Then again, if any player is going to arrive well after the targeted timeframe, it’s Jultz.

  78. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Woodguy,

    This is true. Hard to tell if he could be a legit #1 guy as he is playing behind Alex & Jay in St. Louis. I just like him because he is a pretty slick passer and might be one of the only good RHD available right now. Sigh.

  79. verdad2.0 says:

    Lowetide,

    Then you fail to recognize that the most important play in the modern NHL is to get the puck out of your end , time after time. See Lidstrom, Doughty , Keith.

    Wingers come and go.

    OEL is transformative to this team, Hall is not as important was three centers.

    But ok, leave with an “as is” that has only produced endless failure.

    At least start supporting the trade of Yakupov and Eberle for a functional defenceman.

    Would Chicago trade Hjamarsson for Eberle? I doubt it. So that is all you need to know why OEL trumps Hall if the trade was available.

  80. pocession charge says:

    Woodguy:
    Ice Sage,

    The only way I’d not dangle the 1st is if there were an Ekblad or Seth Jones at the top of the draft (there isn’t).

    A lot of people think Sarnia Dman Jacob Chychrun will be better than both Jones and Ekblad.

    They’re probably right.

    There are some scouts that question Chychrun’s offensive ability but he looks pretty solid — an amazing skater.

  81. pocession charge says:

    verdad2.0:
    Ice Sage,

    OEL for Hall is the play, always has been.

    Who would turn it down if available?

    Don Maloney.

  82. Lackadaisical says:

    If we’re talking trades, I strongly maintain that you can see tea leaves of what the organization is trying to push, based on the development of Draisaitl, and the timeline point we’re at.

    If he’s on RW, think Eberle is gone and running: Hall/Nuge/Drai, Pou/Con/Yak.
    If he’s C, think Nuge is gone and running: Pou/Con/Yak, Hall/Drai/Ebs.
    Otherwise Drai himself becomes your trade bait. Hall/Nuge/Ebs, Pou/Con/Yak.
    if none of those three go, 18 min unicorn pairs of Hall/Drai, Nuge/Ebs, Con/Yak.

    Yak has too low relative value, and we don’t have the depth on the left to lose Hall.

  83. stephen sheps says:

    verdad2.0,

    Lowetide: Me.

    seconded – not trading Hall, end of story.
    also, Verdad, please tell us again how you really feel. This is a trade scenario that simply is not happening. May I kindly suggest you find a new horse to flog or record to break?

  84. hudler1234 says:

    Lowetide: Me.

    Yep keeping a guy here who knows nothing but losing, when you could get a franchise defencemen, its why this team is still in the basement,

  85. G Money says:

    Lackadaisical,

    I *think* this might be what you’re pushing towards

    1 – there is a push to try and include some measure of shooter talent in the equation. It isn’t just where the shot is coming from, but who’s launching it. The only stat that takes this into account is DTM’s xG – but I don’t agree with his methodology, it double counts overall sh%. Trying to come up with something better.

    2 – not sure how you would measure and adjust for D. It’s the same fancystats conundrum we’re struggling with. Is there a meaningful difference in D once you’ve given up the territorial advantage? Or is the key to being a good D measured *by* the territorial advantage? Not sure anyone has an answer yet.

    3 – I do think the adj sv% (WOI has one, and Nick Mercadante has a GAA version) capture what you’re suggesting – measuring how a goalie is doing if he faced average shots rather than, say, Oiler Tire Fire shots. All of those measures consistently show that while the goalies would look better behind a better D, most of the poor goalie performances here are on the goalie, not the D.

  86. Pouzar says:

    G Money: Your drunken memory is correct.My Dangerous Fenwick swings that game from a raw Fenwick % of 45.5 todanger-adjusted Fenwick of 51.8% for the good guys.Helluva swing.

    Reminder: DFF% counts all shots just like raw Fenwick or Corsi, but unlike those two, it does not treat all shots as equal.It weights closer shots more heavily than far shots, and dangerous shot types (e.g. slap) more heavily than less dangerous (e.g. backhand) shots.The shot weights are based on a smoothed curve using five years of shot data.

    The average Oiler shot was 3 ft closer to the net (29 ft vs 33 ft) and the balance of shot types was similar so I’d say that’s what the statistic is showing.

    I haven’t yet vetted it in comparison to the War On Ice, DTM, or Staples metrics to see if they agree or disagree.

    Then why is the comment section littered with D issues?
    I know they ain’t perfect but this team is sinking b/c of shitty goalering.
    We overthinking this?

  87. OilClog says:

    speeds: I guess I should re-watch it, but from memory that was a pretty fast happening sequence of events.Talbot throws it up the boards,, shot on net pretty quickly, then Talbot kicks the rebound out pretty hard into the slot.Sure Fayne could have handled it better, but he had to do a lot of twisting and turning pretty quickly based on how the puck moved, not a super easy play or anything.

    Chased the player from the front of the net, decided to let the player get between him and the net.. His bear hug was brutal.

    Talbot should of been playing about 18inches further out, and should always come up with that save.. Yet Fayne played that sequence like a chicken with no head. If he just sticks checks the shot does not happen.

  88. Lowetide says:

    verdad2.0:
    Lowetide,

    Then you fail to recognize that the most important play in the modern NHL is to get the puck out of your end , time after time. See Lidstrom, Doughty , Keith.

    Wingers come and go.

    OEL is transformative to this team, Hall is not as important was three centers.

    Butok, leave with an “as is” that has only produced endless failure.

    At least start supporting the trade of Yakupov and Eberle for a functional defenceman.

    Would Chicago trade Hjamarsson for Eberle? I doubt it. So that is all you need to know why OEL trumps Hall if the trade was available.

    Dear Verdad,

    Because I’m tired of flushing all your posts and would genuinely like to have your posts roam freely in the wild, here’s a few reasons why you’re being moderated currently.

    1. You make the same point every time. It becomes whatever comes after “so tiresome I want to drive into the ocean”
    2. When you say “then you fail to recognize” you really mean “you stupid fuck” and we all know it.

    thanks for your time, hope this is helpful. Let’s work together to get you back into the main prison population.

  89. Lowetide says:

    hudler1234: Yep keeping a guy here who knows nothing but losing, when you could get a franchise defencemen,its why this team is still in the basement,

    Thoughtful prose.

  90. McSorley33 says:

    There are few people on the planet that would ever think Gryba and Reinhart would be an effective pairing.

    The Edmonton Oilers do.

    Eric Gryba plays regularly on the Edmonton Oilers.

    Some people in here hate the *fans*.

    Wow.

  91. Lewis Grant says:

    Bruce McCurdy: This is not a new stat as David Staples tracked errors on goals against (& contributions over & above points on goals for) for years. For his efforts he was largely rewarded with shit & abuse from the Oilogosphere.
    Nowadays he does a similar, even more labour intensive project on all scoring chances but doesnt tend to isolate goals as he once did. i for one found Errors (& unofficial assists) a useful judgement call.

    I agree. Staples has done some good work and the numbers purists have treated him badly.

    Statistics are very valuable, but they are not perfect. For instance, they always exhibit a bias toward the measurable.

    I, for one, am happy to see the analytics community embrace scoring chances. They may be ‘subjective’, but so are virtually all assists. (That’s why Staples’ ‘tertiary assists’ category is also useful.)

  92. pocession charge says:

    Woodguy:
    Early returns on Reinhart are not good.

    Long road ahead and injuries have played a part, but that former #4 overall 21 year old may not be ready for the NHL.

    He’s being seriously outplayed by everyone not named Ference, and that might be debatable.

    It’s almost as if making decisions on a player based on his junior career, while ignoring his pro performance, is not the best approach…..

  93. RexLibris says:

    verdad2.0:
    Ice Sage,

    OEL for Hall is the play, always has been.

    Who would turn it down if available?

    Given the musical nature of this blog, I recommend a name change to Henry VIII.

    “Second verse, same as the first.”

  94. LMHF#1 says:

    Tyson Barrie and Eric Gelinas please.

    Pouzar: Then why is the comment section littered with D issues?
    I know they ain’t perfect but this team is sinking b/c of shitty goalering.
    We overthinking this?

    Nope. Way too many utterly stupid mistakes combined with bad passing to the forwards. Their record could be quite good with a half-way decent group back there.

  95. verdad2.0 says:

    McSorley33,

    Yes it is utterly amazing some bloggers here want to rationalize for Chiarelli, than calling for his immediate dismissal.

    Nill he is not.
    He isn’t even Brian Burke.

    He wasted the summer, foisted Gryba, Korkioski, Schultz , Letestu, and Talbot on us. And some want to criticize the fans for their “hostility”?

  96. Pouzar says:

    LMHF#1:
    Tyson Barrie and Eric Gelinas please.

    Nope. Way too many utterly stupid mistakes combined with bad passing to the forwards. Their record could be quite good with a half-way decent group back there.

    .899 sv %.

    I can’t get too excited about this D till that gets fixed.

  97. JDï™ says:

    Lowetide: Thoughtful prose.

    Is that the new ‘I’m sorry’?

  98. Lackadaisical says:

    G Money,

    Alright then, thanks for your consideration.

  99. verdad2.0 says:

    RexLibris,

    When you are right , you are right.
    Bears repeating.

  100. G Money says:

    Pouzar: Then why is the comment section littered with D issues?
    I know they ain’t perfect but this team is sinking b/c of shitty goalering.
    We overthinking this?

    The DFF% tells you the balance of play. What it’s really showing is just how good the offense was, that they could break above even on a danger-adjusted basis.

    I think the shitty D and the shitty G remain this teams big problems, so they naturally get all of the discussion.

    But I’d say last night the goalering was a bigger problem than the D. The Oilers scored three goals against a much better D and without obvious gaffes from the Kings goalie. The Kings scored half their goals because of the goalie, and half of the other goals because of the D.

  101. pocession charge says:

    Verdad 2.0,

    The only guy that Arizona would trade OEL for is McDavid. Basically, there is no trade here. Try the following exercise: stand in front of a mirror and repeat, “OEL won’t be traded. OEL won’t be traded. OEL won’t be traded”. You’ll have to do this for an hour at a time, three times a day for a week before you start noticing a change. Likely best to continue the exercise throughout the winter for full effect.

  102. LMHF#1 says:

    Pouzar: .899 sv %.

    I can’t get too excited about this D till that gets fixed.

    How precisely does Talbot or Nilsson become the superhuman they’d need to be in order to stop the undefended chances they are facing as the result of echl-level turnovers?

  103. Lowetide says:

    Pouzar: .899 sv %.

    I can’t get too excited about this D till that gets fixed.

    Absolutely the goaltending has to get better. The point of my post today is that flushing Fayne isn’t going to make this team better IF you believe the numbers. Reinhart-Gryba is the number one issue facing the defense. The goaltending is another post.

  104. 719 says:

    t’s possible to have good numbers and get noticed for negative things—single moments and events can have super importance while being exactly single moments and events.

    Such truth in these words. I was so angry at Fayne yesterday on that last goal, then I see the numbers this morning and realize just how good of a d-man he is. The light of day (lowetide) has brought me back from the back from the edge.

  105. Gret99zky says:

    Woodguy:
    Ice Sage,

    The only way I’d not dangle the 1st is if there were an Ekblad or Seth Jones at the top of the draft (there isn’t).

    A lot of people think Sarnia Dman Jacob Chychrun will be better than both Jones and Ekblad.

    They’re probably right.

    A Jones or Ekblad in hand is worth two Chychruns in the bush.

    No?

  106. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: I think we’ll eventually do a ‘project scoresheet’ for errors, with a few people involved. I don’t have any specific bias against counting errors but do find bias does exist for all of us. If there were independent counters and a consensus drawn, it could have value. I wouldn’t recommend myself because of my bias, suspect college kids in San Diego would be the ideal candidates for the job.

    Agreed observer bias is a thing with almost all observers. Whether for/against individual players, or simply our take on what constitutes a mistake and what the player “should have” done.

    I have said before — and so has David — that the project would be much stronger with 3, 4, or 5 trackers and some method to cross-tabulate their results. But such reinforcements are not yet available.

    That said, if you asked me this morning to name one other person on the planet to confirm my observation that Griffin Reinhart made mistakes on two goals against and good first passes that resulted in two goals for, I would say without hesitation, “David Staples”. Whereas many observers get all tied up in just the mistakes, or just the positives.

  107. verdad2.0 says:

    pocession charge,

    How do you know?
    Many on this board would not make the trade of Hall for OEL , on its basic merits.
    Some of the most revered commentators on here.
    Would Maloney be of thier mindset?

    So if Hall is offered , then maybe OEL is offered up.
    Try.

    My point is relentlessly try.

  108. Gret99zky says:

    Why does Oiler management consistently think that operating under status quo will somehow fix what is broken?

    Like Talbot, Gryba, Lander, and Co. will magically figure it out as the losses pile up.

    “One more draft should do the trick.” – Oil Lore

  109. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy: I hate Oiler fans.

    I’m an Oiler fan. [sniff] You hate me now too?

    I’m kidding, but only partly. If I hated Oilers fans, I wouldn’t do what I do. I do hate Some of the things Some of them say. But I don’t like the broad brush approach except when using terms like “long-suffering Oilers fans” or other factually-supportable statements that apply right across the broad spectrum.

  110. G Money says:

    LMHF#1: How precisely does Talbot or Nilsson become the superhuman they’d need to be in order to stop the undefended chances they are facing as the result of echl-level turnovers?

    Last night, the ECHL level turnover that lost the game was on the goalie, and no-one else.

    The goal that lost the Calgary game was a terrible behind-the-line shot that any D would happily give up a thousand times because you should never ever score from there. But it found its way through Talbot.

    MANY of the goals have nothing to do with the D, and everything to do with poor goaltending. If it was all on the D, we’d be talking about how our heroic goalies got snowed under by the huge number of dangerous chances given up.

    That hasn’t happened but twice this season. Most games, it’s been the goalies giving up soft goals from lousy scoring positions, killing momentum, killing morale, killing games outright.

    Time to stop making excuses for the goalies.

    Rather than blaming the D (quite a number of goalies play behind worse tire fires and do just fine, as a multitude of folks here have shown), we have to ask why the goalies keep giving up soft goals.

    Perhaps we should ask why the team has spent every year the last five seasons counting on a starting goalie with less than two seasons of experience to backstop the team.

    I like the Talbot bet, still do, but posted from before we signed him that I feared risk of a ‘starters dip’, which has bitten a huge number of goalies in that 60 to 120 game region when handed the starters reins for the first time.

    The correct answer is to have a veteran starting calibre goalie i.e. NOT Fasth, Larbarbera, Nilsson, to fall back on if that happens. Give the youngsters a real safety net, for Pete’s sake.

  111. leadfarmer says:

    As much as I don’t like Chias moves so far, It is a little early to judge him. It will take until the start of next season to fully evaluate him. Takes some time to get his guys in place and get a feel for your team. What does he do with all that cap space. How does he fix the D corpse, how does he fix the goaltending corpse, how does he fix the 3rd line corpse. Does Schultz get resigned? Purcell? What if he takes a pay cut do you keep him?

  112. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy: Agreed on hiring the college kids.

    Can’t just count error though.

    Need to count everything and anything.Touches, passes, zone entry denials. etc.

    Too much important stuff never hits the score sheet or grabs a Staples’ eye because nothing was generated at the time, but everything was done well/poorly.

    Agree 100%. Not sure that it is possible to judge and count everything that happens in a hockey game, but you are bang on that there are many things that are completely missed by any statistical measure, and many more that only a trained eye will catch, and even that one imperfectly.

  113. pocession charge says:

    LMHF#1: How precisely does Talbot or Nilsson become the superhuman they’d need to be in order to stop the undefended chances they are facing as the result of echl-level turnovers?

    I don’t think they are seeing any more dangerous chances than a lot of other teams. Reto Berra, for example, is currently putting up a .950+ save percentage for the Avalanche. Same can be said for Buffalo. The Oilers should expect league average goaltending regardless of their defensive play and they just aren’t getting it.

  114. MightyOil1 says:

    Same as it ever was indeed.

    The forwards are great. The d-men are brutal. The losses will continue.

    Sekera is a solid NHL #4 Dman, currently playing as a #1.

    When Sekera is the #4 on the Oilers, they will be a playoff team. Until then expect futility.

    In my eyes another season is over. Man do I love Draisaitl.

  115. leadfarmer says:

    G Money,

    I agree. Every team gives the puck away, but their goalie bails them out from time to time. We haven’t had much of that. Talbot is handling the puck like Scrivens. He goes down too early, but isn’t aggressive enough to cut down the angles.

  116. Bruce McCurdy says:

    verdad2.0:
    Lowetide,

    Then you fail to recognize that the most important play in the modern NHL is to get the puck out of your end , time after time. See Lidstrom, Doughty , Keith.

    Let’s add up the total number trades involving Lidstrom, Doughty, Keith & OEL. Then let’s continuously pump out a trade idea that somehow involves one of them being dealt.

    Here’s a suggestion. Buy NHL ’16 and make your own trade. Maybe if you’re in charge of the entire league you’ll find a GM at the other end foolish enough to move a top d-man.

  117. JDï™ says:

    verdad2.0: My point is relentlessly

    Oh we know – we know.

  118. flyfish1168 says:

    verdad2.0:
    Lowetide,

    Then you fail to recognize that the most important play in the modern NHL is to get the puck out of your end , time after time. See Lidstrom, Doughty , Keith.

    Wingers come and go.

    OEL is transformative to this team, Hall is not as important was three centers.

    Butok, leave with an “as is” that has only produced endless failure.

    At least start supporting the trade of Yakupov and Eberle for a functional defenceman.

    Would Chicago trade Hjamarsson for Eberle? I doubt it. So that is all you need to know why OEL trumps Hall if the trade was available.

    As much as I hate to says this. If we win the lottery they will come knocking and OEL would be part of the deal.

  119. Bag of Pucks says:

    Leon’s play this season is a HUGE silver lining for me.

    Hall and Drai are playing the way franchise players / lottery picks are supposed to. Strong effort at both ends, consistent from game to game, generating actual goals and not just scoring chances/moral victories.

    With these 3 pairs emerging (Drai/Hall, Nuge/Eberle, McDavid/Yak), the 3 lines unicorn looks closer than ever.

    The rebuild has always been bass ackwards (Fs drafted before D), but the good news is the F depth is finally maturing. Chia and TMac have options and trade chips.

    You would think Yak or Eberle would be the most likely chips being dangled, but if they are going after the great white whale (legitimate 1D), it may take a player like Nuge to get it.

    Seth Jones for Nugent Hopkins is a trade I would make.

  120. LMHF#1 says:

    For the record – I’m bagging on the defence. That doesn’t let the goalies off the hook when the goals are bad.

    The goalies aren’t allowing enough goals that if the giveaways and failed breakouts were cut significantly they’d still be losing.

  121. Pouzar says:

    Bakersfield Condors ‏@Condors 45s45 seconds ago
    The #Oilers have assigned G Eetu Laurikainen from Bakersfield to HPK in Finland.

  122. Lowetide says:

    Juha Hiitelä ‏@jhiitela 6m6 minutes ago

    Oilers have loaned goalie Eetu Laurikainen to Finnish league’s HPK for rest of the season. Can recall in case of injuries or trades.

  123. Pouzar says:

    “From the nest: Josh Winquist, the Condors’ hottest scorer with seven points in eight games, left last Wednesday’s game against San Diego and was obviously limping while walking around the arena on Saturday. Coach Fleming labelled his injury as “long term for now” …”

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/11/15/condors-rule-over-the-ontario-reign

  124. pocession charge says:

    verdad2.0:
    pocession charge,

    How do you know?
    Many on this board would not make the trade of Hall for OEL , on its basic merits.
    Some of the most revered commentators on here.
    Would Maloney be of thier mindset?

    So if Hall is offered , then maybe OEL is offered up.
    Try.

    My point is relentlessly try.

    1. You don’t know what the manager has or has not tried.
    2. It does not make sense for Arizona to trade OEL. Would you if you were their GM? No!!
    3. If you keep calling another GM too many times, he will either a) stop taking your call or b) sense your desperation and torch you on that trade (eg. OEL for McDavid).

  125. Pouzar says:

    We need an “ignore” button.

    Seriously.

  126. Bos8 says:

    Lowetide: Dear Verdad,

    Because I’m tired of flushing all your posts and would genuinely like to have your posts roam freely in the wild, here’s a few reasons why you’re being moderated currently.

    1. You make the same point every time. It becomes whatever comes after “so tiresome I want to drive into the ocean”
    2. When you say “then you fail to recognize” you really mean “you stupid fuck” and we all know it.

    thanks for your time, hope this is helpful. Let’s work together to get you back into the main prison population.

    The writing today is top drawer sir, just masterful. Everyone is on a downer, disheartened, and here comes the clever, singing prose. And then the “stupid fuck” is the pinnacle.

    You don’t put yourself down to show him up.

    Well done sir, well done indeed.

  127. flea says:

    I think Chia put two business plans down in front of Katz this year.

    1. Buyout deadwood, aggressively pursue defenseman (in a bit of a weak field of available talent) and get this team to a playoff contender for the last few spots.

    2. Keep the powder dry, let the deadwood drop off the cap and get ready for a big offseason in 2016. Get the team ready for the new building. Use 2015 as a prep year.

    Katz is not concerned with competing while they are at Northlands. The second option was picked.

    And honestly, I really feel the play is going to be Byfuglien. He’s a Burns type defender/forward that McLellan likes. Maybe if the Oilers had started stronger they might have dealt for him this season. Prob not now.

  128. JDï™ says:

    And this needs to be said again – I love our version of Joe Colborne!

    XOXO to Rom!

  129. Pouzar says:

    JDï™:
    And this needs to be said again – I love our version of Joe Colborne!

    XOXO to Rom!

    Clearly allows us to trade Nuge now.

  130. kevin says:

    Woodguy: Wonder if Reinhart + 1st (lottery win protected) gets that done?

    How does this ‘1st(lottery win protected)’ trade work? Has it ever been traded by any team?

    In theory, if the pick wins the lottery, the Oilers would keep the pick, and the other team gets what?

  131. cc says:

    LT:
    “When I find myself in times of trouble, CorsiRel comes to me, speaking words of wisdom, let it bleed.”

    Brilliant!

  132. Eberle Hills Ninja says:

    Hello LoweTide world,

    Eberle Hills Ninja here. Long time listener, first time caller.

    I’ve been coming to this site for 5-6 years and have no idea why I picked now to leave my first comment. Kinda feel like I walked into the saloon for a quiet drink right before a brawl breaks out. I guess timing has never been my strong point (Kinda like hopelessoilfan’s Purcell comment).

    I watch every game, although I don’t live in the market. While I hate contributing to the “Ted Rogers Cryostasis” fund that is NHL Gamecentre, I have a thing or two to say about the Oil, from time to time.

    First things first. In the foggy midst of yet another dismal start to a season, I thought it would be a good time to say a big thanks. I really appreciate the work that is done on this site. Lowetide, you have become THE go-to locale for this life-time Oiler fan (now living in Vancouver) for his copper and blue fix. Your mix of hard stats, sober perspective and 80’s references hit the mark pretty squarely with me.

    I have the feeling that most every guy on these boards is the smartest, most knowledgeable hockey guy in their group of friends (or at least in their own minds). You have that covered. So I will try to come armed with my brand of lazy wit and charm in lieu of fancy stats. You also seem to have the stubborn genius/bully quota covered. So I will try to reserve that guy for my “discussions” with the local Canucks fans.

    I guess I just wanted to say thanks for everything, and keep up the good work. I am happy to be in this here saloon. And go easy on me and my half-baked Oilers fixes and theories. At least for a while. 😉

    Go MFin Oilers

  133. Lowetide says:

    kevin: How does this ‘1st(lottery win protected)’ trade work? Has it ever been traded by any team?

    In theory, if the pick wins the lottery, the Oilers would keep the pick, and the other team gets what?

    It moves to the following season. The trade would be “Edmonton trades Griffin Reinhart and their 2016 first-round selection (lottery protected) to the Toronto Maple Leafs for Morgan Rielly. The Leafs pick automatically becomes Edmonton’s 2017 first-round pick if Edmonton finishes in the lottery.”

    Something like that.

  134. Derek says:

    Pouzar: Clearly allows us to trade Nuge now.

    This is already being discussed in other corners of the internet after Draisaitl shows one strong game at center.

    Sports fandom is insanity.

    Edit: I’m guessing you’ve already seen that, still… Nucking Futs.

  135. Bag of Pucks says:

    CAL dead last in GA with their vaunted D core.

    Continuing the search for silver linings….

  136. spoiler says:

    A little more on Eetu:

    Jim Matheson ‏@NHLbyMatty · 15m15 minutes ago
    The assignment of Edm farm G Laurikainen to Finnish team was expected. He didn’t want to play in ECHL after strong play back home last yr.

    The Scrivens insurance policy is having an effect.

  137. MightyOil1 says:

    Derek: This is already being discussed in other corners of the internet after Draisaitl shows one strong game at center.

    Sports fandom is insanity.

    Indeed, get good players and then keep good players is the mantra. If your solution to the oilers problems is to get YOUNGER then ask a different question.

    Man Hall is a beauty.

  138. Derek says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    CAL dead last in GA with their vaunted D core.

    Continuing the search for silver linings….

    Hall, Drai and RNH are still better than Jenny Hockey, Bennett and Monahan.

    Also Giordano has 7 points and is -11 🙂

  139. Derek says:

    JDï™:
    Pouzar,

    Derek,

    http://i.imgur.com/MTpOcmO.gifv

    Verdad is the chicken and OEL is the dog…?

  140. G Money says:

    Nick Mercadante (who is extremely valuable to follow esp. re: goaltending) is listening to an NHL scout talk about prospects, and is just in awe of the complete psychobabble therein.

    Nick Mercadante ‏@NMercad 13 mins13 minutes ago
    Listening to a few NHL scouts discussing prospects. This is horrible. It’s just a series of buzzwords and nonsense. This all it takes?

    Nick Mercadante ‏@NMercad 11 mins11 minutes ago
    W the Fs at least they mention boxcars. But abundantly clear they have no idea how to analyze D. “I saw him a couple times” assessments.

    Nick Mercadante ‏@NMercad 11 mins11 minutes ago
    A stream of this: “well I really like his battle. Big bodied. Long stride. Seems to have a lot of confidence.” Like…what??

    Nick Mercadante ‏@NMercad 10 mins10 minutes ago
    These are NHL scouts. One is the amateur scouting director of NJ. I guess it’s possible they aren’t trying to give away secret sauce but ???

    Nick Mercadante ‏@NMercad 8 mins8 minutes ago
    “Boy he can really get his shot up there. Scores the pretty goals. Two way guy. Power forward.” That was essentially a verbatim quote.

    Nick Mercadante ‏@NMercad 3 mins3 minutes ago
    Goalie scouting analysis of Samsanov: “has a terrific glove hand. Seems like he, uh, can, uh make that big glove save and show it like Ha!”

    Nick Mercadante ‏@NMercad 2 mins2 minutes ago
    “He always seems to make that clutch save, he can make those big saves. Athletic. His teammates appreciate his compete level.”

    Nick Mercadante ‏@NMercad 3 mins3 minutes ago
    Those are actual quotes. From an actual scout. For an NHL team. About their investment. Just complete babble.

  141. G Money says:

    spoiler,

    HEy Spoiler, not sure if you saw this last night. I have a new methodology/calculation for zone starts I’m trying to assess. Want your opinion. Trying to DM you on Twitter but can’t.

  142. Bag of Pucks says:

    My favourite Oiler fans are the ones that think we can land a top pairing D with experience, a good contract, and upside, without giving up anything of significance.

    Like teams are falling over themselves to trade us their best players for our dregs.

    There are 4 players within this org that can legitimately fetch a legitimate 1D without adding a whack of draft picks, sweeteners, cash, blood sacrifices, etc.

    Wanna guess who they are?

  143. Lowetide says:

    Eberle Hills Ninja.

    Welcome! Fabulous name! You’re banned!

  144. spoiler says:

    G Money:
    spoiler,

    HEy Spoiler, not sure if you saw this last night.I have a new methodology/calculation for zone starts I’m trying to assess.Want your opinion.Trying to DM you on Twitter but can’t.

    Only my minion followers can DM, lol.

  145. jp says:

    leadfarmer: Ooh,ooh.Do Hall next.
    But seriously Purcell has been playing very wall last couple games

    Actual lol. In public. 🙂

  146. Halfwise says:

    Lowetide:
    Eberle Hills Ninja.

    Welcome! Fabulous name! You’re banned!

    Now THAT’s how you make an entrance.

    Wot’d they do, LT?

  147. mustang says:

    Regarding trading Taylor Hall. He has been my favorite Oiler and the player I wanted in 2010. It was never Taylor or Tyler for me, it was only #4 in my mind. He has become a top 3 left winger in the world, now that is impressive. He is the driver ever team wants and needs. He is great for the game of hockey, and one of the most electrifying players on the planet, bar none. There are players on the Oilers I would trade +++ for a top end Dman but not Hall. Now if he was a complete cancer in the dressing room which I highly doubt then you trade him. He is becoming a legit leader on this team he is starting to grow up and become the man this team needs, please Oiler fans don’t run him out of town!

  148. Lowetide says:

    Halfwise: Now THAT’s how you make an entrance.

    Wot’d they do, LT?

    Came up with a better nick than the host!!!

  149. Halfwise says:

    Lowetide: Came up with a better nick than the host!!!

    Ha! Flashier maybe, but no sustain.

  150. Halfwise says:

    mustang: There are players on the Oilers I would trade +++ for a top end Dman but not Hall. Now if he was a complete cancer in the dressing room which I highly doubt then you trade him. He is becoming a legit leader on this team he is starting to grow up and become the man this team needs, please Oiler fans don’t run him out of town!

    Have you met our frequent companion? His name is VerdOCD or something like that.

  151. spoiler says:

    Woodguy:
    Here’s a Dman stat I bring up from time to time.

    Its Fenwick Against/60 – Opponent’s Fenwick For/60

    Stats.hockeyanalysis has these stats available.

    I like it because the “Opponent’s Fenwick For/60” is the aggregate FF/60 of all the players that particular player has played against.

    There’s no need to take into account deployment because how the opposition does (their FF/60)away from that player is already taken into account.

    So you don’t get penalized if you play mostly against Kane and the other guy plays mostly against John Scott.

    Its also only an “against” stat, so playing with Taylor Hall has less of an impact than if you combine For/Against.It helps us boil out any non-Dman driven information.

    Here are the Oilers Dmen so far in FA/60 – OppFF/60.Negative numbers mean the player is allowing less than average, positive means more than average.

    DAVIDSON, BRANDON-6
    KLEFBOM, OSCAR-5.11
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN-3.15
    FAYNE, MARK-2.17
    FERENCE, ANDREW-0.51
    SEKERA, ANDREJ1.31
    NURSE, DARNELL2.34
    GRYBA, ERIC2.84
    REINHART, GRIFFIN5.79

    G Money,

    I’ve been thinking hard about WG’s Dman calculation he laid out above and I quite like it.

    As long as we accept that we are not removing the effects of forwards, QoT. Obviously playing with Corsi Machine Hall means the puck is in the other end a lot and is going to affect FA/60.

    But, I rely heavily on FA/60 myself when looking at DMen (and WOWYs where I can), so I am already half-converted. Never look at CF% or Rel CF%.

    But again, nearly impossible to compare a player on one team to a player on another. It’s so tough to find a measure where we can identify and evaluate good trade targets. Nothing really works with any confidence.

  152. JDï™ says:

    Lowetide: Came up with a better nick than the host!!!

    Great name, no doubt, but not very robust. When Ebs is traded for Luke Schenn, then what? Schenandoah Valley Ninja?

  153. Bos8 says:

    I just hope that management don’t panic and stay the course. Considering difficulty of assignments the forward core is into the system. Defence being more complex will take longer, being rookies doesn’t help. The poor goalies are between a rock and a hard place. Because the D is an adventure at this time, they are time and again out of position.

    The team looks better every game. Ye olde “dark before the dawn” thing.

    All I know is that the games are entertaining and not cringe worthy.

  154. russ99 says:

    flea:
    I think Chia put two business plans down in front of Katz this year.

    1. Buyout deadwood, aggressively pursue defenseman (in a bit of a weak field of available talent) and get this team to a playoff contender for the last few spots.

    2. Keep the powder dry, let the deadwood drop off the cap and get ready for a big offseason in 2016. Get the team ready for the new building. Use 2015 as a prep year.

    Katz is not concerned with competing while they are at Northlands. The second option was picked.

    And honestly, I really feel the play is going to be Byfuglien. He’s a Burns type defender/forward that McLellan likes. Maybe if the Oilers had started stronger they might have dealt for him this season. Prob not now.

    While I believe the new arena theory, that was pretty much confirmed by Eakins’ sour grapes when he was let go, I think this has a lot more to do with Chiarelli needing time to remove the remnants of MacT’s mistakes.

    That’s why he didn’t buy out Nikitin or Ference this summer since those buyouts would have affected us for multiple seasons. If Ference doesn’t retire, we can buy him out next summer with the buyout portion only one season left on the books.

    This season is all about McLellan getting the players to play well within a system and being able to evaluate what we have first hand to be able to make smart moves (less gimped by old regime scouting) going forward.

    In that way it’s been a success, and Draisaitl and Nurse emerging as core pieces are the icing on the cake.

    We all want the, to win more, especially after a decade of misery, but our contention window is coming, and we don’t want boneheaded moves for this season that’s already lost to shorten that window or put us in a worse cap hell that the Blackhawks went through this offseason.

    We hung with the Kings and we able to succeed playing their game in their building. That’s what we should take out of last night.

  155. ruotsalainen says:

    verdad2.0:
    Ice Sage,

    OEL for Hall is the play, always has been.

    Who would turn it down if available?

    You spin me right round, baby
    Right round like a record, baby
    Right round round round
    You spin me right round, baby
    Right round like a record, baby
    Right round round round round round round round round round round…

  156. Oil2Oilers says:

    Woodguy:
    Early returns on Reinhart are not good.

    Long road ahead and injuries have played a part, but that former #4 overall 21 year old may not be ready for the NHL.

    He’s being seriously outplayed by everyone not named Ference, and that might be debatable.

    I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt until I see him play a few games without Gryba. Reinhart-Jultz as a third pairing is something I would like to see before the trade deadline.

    The biggest mystery/disconnect I have this season with the Oilers coaching and management is there opinion/playing of Gryba. Still better than last year when the dipshits healthy scrathed Petry against LA.

  157. 719 says:

    Woodguy:
    Top 30 in the NHL in this metric:

    BRAUN, JUSTIN-8.34

    Sekera’s Mom: Why can’t you be more like Braun?

    Sekera begins to disdain Braun

  158. Genjutsu says:

    Purcel looks like he came back to soon from his injury.

    I guess in retrospect he’s better served being a complimentary player with skill than in a third line role.

    Someone tried to tell us that. I guess I, like Oilers management want listening.

    That’s a huge positive moving forward. I’m liking the idea of having Leon Nuge and McEverything as C group moving forward.

    Now if we can just age Nurse, Griff and Davidson two years and 100 NHL games. . .

  159. Centre of attention says:

    So Taylor Hall is on a 36 goal, 54 assist 90 point pace for this season.

    Yeah lets trade that guy… [sarcasm]

    #FreeBrossoit

  160. Tire Fire says:

    Bruce McCurdy: This is not a new stat as David Staples tracked errors on goals against (& contributions over & above points on goals for) for years. For his efforts he was largely rewarded with shit & abuse from the Oilogosphere.

    I also found Staples’ tracking useful. Unfortunately, sometimes style trumps substance and I got tired of constantly reading a bio of Roger Nielsen followed by an attack on Corsi before getting to a bit of useful stuff at the end.

    I don’t even really use Corsi (too much stats and analysis in my day job to do it as a hobby), Still, it’s mentally taxing to read a clearly wrong critique of anything over and over that is clearly motivated by personal bias over logic. It’s draining. I had to stop reading Staples because of it.

    I do read everything you and LT pen though.

  161. Centre of attention says:

    Also, people calling for Lander to be put on waivers.

    Who do you honestly think is going to replace him??

    This team is weak at center all of a sudden and now is not the time to start dumping warm bodies.

  162. Gret99zky says:

    mustang,

    Would you trade Taylor Hall for a Stanley Cup?

    I’m guessing a lot around here would not.

  163. Centre of attention says:

    Gret99zky:
    mustang,

    Would you trade Taylor Hall for a Stanley Cup?

    I’m guessing a lot around here would not.

    I would forfeit a Stanley cup to see Taylor Hall retire an Oiler.

    Not even kidding.

  164. Clarkenstein says:

    November 14, 2015. Oil are DFL. Is this the quickest yet?

  165. slopitch says:

    How long is Schultz out for? I think he’d be an improvement on D (crazy as it sounds).

    Also, how is New Jersey top 10 in the league? There offense is bad. D and goaltending I suppose (today’s NHL).

    CHI and NJD are beatable at home. If the Oilers can get 8 PTs in the next 7 games, that should be good. Survive till the schedule gets easier and CMD returns. And trade for a dman.

  166. Centre of attention says:

    Also, crazy little thing I noticed last night while watching the post game interveiws.

    Watch Teddy Purcells post game comments.

    In the back ground, you can see Cam Talbot sitting alone in the corner with just the worst expression on his face. His body language in general was of a man completely crushed internally. He needed a hug to say the least. Leon comes and sits beside him and I swear the guy is wiping away a tear at one point. Heartbreaking stuff, watching a grown man wallow like that.

    I know Talbot is better then he is showing. But I think his own mistakes in the last few games have really destroyed his confidence, combine that with the defensive corpse rotting in front of him on a nightly basis I really can’t blame him for struggling.

    I look at Talbot sitting in his stall there completely broken, and I see ’13 Devan Dubnyk.

    *sigh*

  167. spoiler says:

    G Money:
    spoiler,

    HEy Spoiler, not sure if you saw this last night.I have a new methodology/calculation for zone starts I’m trying to assess.Want your opinion.Trying to DM you on Twitter but can’t.

    Nice. I think it’s a step forward.

    First, some general thoughts on ZSs.

    1. I’m not sure why we don’t use ZSs (along with Corsi and Fen) to assess where the puck is more often. That is, we can use ZSs to evaluate the team as a whole… Good teams should have more OZs and fewer DZs and teams when they play well should see the same on game-by-game basis, much like CF%, FF%.

    (I think your data reveals some of this, since it shows most Oilers were starting more often in their own end last night)

    (Yes, the sample is smaller than Corsi, but it’s another piece of information and easily obtained)

    2. As a corollary to the above, we should be able to adjust a player’s own # within the team based on this team effect. A poorer team that sees more whistles in its own end has more “opportunity” for DZ shift starts, and vice versa for OZ shift starts.

    3. How do we allow for line rolling? If the 1st line is always coming out after the 3rd or 4th lines, and the team’s bottom 6 sucks, the 1st line is going to see a lot of DZ starts. Is this then a “push from the coach” or reflective of line-rolling and the quality of the bottom 6 players and what they leave for other lines?

    4. Do defensemen start on the fly (league as a whole) more or less than forwards? I don’t think it matters much to your spreadsheet, but I’m curious.

    Specific to Your Sheet:

    1. With respect to the last point above, we get a defenseman like Sekera with monster TOI and 28 shifts, but only 4 starts off a face off… now while they all came in the DZ, that seems like a really small number and I’m not sure it will tell us anything useful.

    If we had a media member who would ask TMac a post-game question like, “it looks from the data that you were giving Sekera an uphill row to hoe–not a single shift start off a Ozone FO–was that something you were consciously doing in the game? …We could get some confirmation.

    2. Strong correlation, to be sure… but if Total shifts include PP & PK time, but the calculation for Dungeon Push only includes whistle starts for EVs, won’t we have skewed numbers for high special teams players? I like the overall idea though (with general caveats above).

    3. Thus, is there any value in calculating based on total DZ starts available? Oilers D had 22 shifts starts off a FO last night, which means 7-8 per pairing assuming equal TOI, or 3-4 per player. Weight the SSFO by EV TOI and divide the player’s individual # into that. So we get percentage of actual DZSSFOs vs expected DZSSFOs… any thoughts?

  168. Gret99zky says:

    Centre of attention,

    I feel bad for Talbot.

    How many times do we watch a game and shout, “C’mon, why didn’t the goalie go behind the net and play the puck up the boards! The D can’t do it ALL themselves!”

    Yup, never. Never gets said. Stay in the fucking net, Cam.

    He’s made quite a bed here.

  169. Mr DeBakey says:

    Woodguy:
    Top 30 in the NHL in this metric:

    JACKMAN, BARRET-13.78
    JONES, SETH-11.25
    GELINAS, ERIC-10.75

    I was looking at Gelinas last week. His TOI has been dropping steadily this season. He was a HS last night against Spitttsburg.

  170. mustang says:

    Gret99zky,

    The point is there are other ways to get a top 2 dman other than trading Hall.

  171. Johnny Larue says:

    Sitting in LAX waiting for my return Flt to Edm . Just some observations from the last 2 games that I saw live. Teddy Purcell was great in both games he stood out , hustled and made smart veteren plays. I wasn’t expecting that . Hall is a force he just puts his head down and heads to the net best player on the ice both games . Leon ,Oscar look like they have arrived Darnell looks great in spurts say him good in Anaheim not so good last night. Gryba looked horrible . When the first shot went in last night I turned to the person I was with and said this looks like it maybe an ugly night. That is the biggest difference over last year the goalie let a weak goal on the 1st shot and it would have been a 6-0 butt kicking . This year we fought back and I think we deserved to win the game at least come out with a point. I know we are not seeing any improvement in the standings but I think the team is hugely improved. When it finally clicks look out we are going to be a force to be contended with and I think we are very close.

  172. smellyglove says:

    Why is competing in 2015/16 and 2016/17 mutually exclusive? Can’t believe the popular narrative around here that the team doesn’t give a shit this year. Teams need time to gel, learn new strategies, go through highs and lows together.

    I love how ‘they’re focused on winning in 16/17’ is an excuse for the Oilers being last place, again, after four #1 OVs.

  173. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Caleb Jones 3rd in scoring on Portland, ahead of Paul Bittner. If he continues his season like this, we’ll have to talk about him as a legit prospect.

    Bear’s boxcars look good too.

    LT’s Weekend Update has Pailin at 8P in 15GP in the KHL, though I’m having a hard time finding these numbers.

  174. Woodguy says:

    kevin: How does this ‘1st(lottery win protected)’ trade work? Has it ever been traded by any team?

    In theory, if the pick wins the lottery, the Oilers would keep the pick, and the other team gets what?

    Yes, LAK last year and others have “lottery protected” a pick.

    If the pick traded wins the lottery to become 1st overall the Oilers keep that pick and give up whatever the negotiated compensation is. Usually that team’s 1st the next year.

    Seeing as the top 3 slots get drawn there may be various levels of lottery protection this year and in coming years.

  175. Gret99zky says:

    mustang:
    Gret99zky,

    The point is there are other ways to get a top 2 dman other than trading Hall.

    The point is there are some here who would rather watch Hall put up crooked numbers on a bottom 5 team his entire career than move him for a chance to win the big prize.

  176. blainer says:

    Pouzar: Then why is the comment section littered with D issues?
    I know they ain’t perfect but this team is sinking b/c of shitty goalering.
    We overthinking this?

    This is what I have been saying for the last ten years. We need a Goalie to put up average numbers. Jeebus can one of them show up just for one season even.

    Call up LB. Now.

  177. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: G Money,

    I’ve been thinking hard about WG’s Dman calculation he laid out above and I quite like it.

    As long as we accept that we are not removing the effects of forwards, QoT.Obviously playing with Corsi Machine Hall means the puck is in the other end a lot and is going to affect FA/60.

    But, I rely heavily on FA/60 myself when looking at DMen (and WOWYs where I can), so I am already half-converted.Never look at CF% or Rel CF%.

    But again, nearly impossible to compare a player on one team to a player on another.It’s so tough to find a measure where we can identify and evaluate good trade targets.Nothing really works with any confidence.

    I read something recently that explained that CF and CA are actually poorly correlated.

    You’d “expect” that someone with a lot of CF would have fewer CA and vice-versa but that’s not the way it works.

    Some players are high event with big CF and CA (Erik Karlsson is the poster boy for high event hockey) and basically the NJD are a lot of low event players and others like them.

    I’ll try to dig up the piece later as I can’t find it now (on phone)

    Here’s something to chew on though:

    Oiler Dmen CA/60 with Taylor Hall this year: (sorted by TOI w/ Hall)

    Klef 48.80
    Sekera 60.84
    Gryba 51.33
    Fayne 49.21
    Schultz 47.70
    Nurse 60.52
    Davidson 49.33
    Reinhart 70.49

    Its like Nuke Laloosh pitches and #*$@ ‘s….. kinda all over the place.

  178. Lowetide says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Caleb Jones 3rd in scoring on Portland, ahead of Paul Bittner. If he continues his season like this, we’ll have to talk about him as a legit prospect.

    Bear’s boxcars look good too.

    LT’s Weekend Update has Pailin at 8P in 15GP in the KHL, though I’m having a hard time finding these numbers.

    My mistake. Corrected and I thank you!

  179. Snowman says:

    Gret99zky,

    If you trade Hall, you open up a gigantic hole. We’re not exactly drowning in leftwingers.

    I think D prospects and picks are the way to go. The unbelievable truth is the only place we really have any depth is at C. We’ve got a bit of depth on the RW now. We have just enought LWs.

    We’ve got a million D prospects and picks that we don’t need at the minute. You have to deal from those areas. Any other trade is just robbing Peter to pay Paul…

    Err.. actually I guess it would be Peter Chiarelli robbing Paul to pay Pedro… or something like that.

  180. leadfarmer says:

    Centre of attention:
    Also, people calling for Lander to be put on waivers.

    Who do you honestly think is going to replace him??

    This team is weak at center all of a sudden and now is not the time to start dumping warm bodies.

    I don’t think anyone has been advocating for him to be waived. Putting him on the fourth line to play with Letestu and Hendricks to make a terrific difficult zone start line and 3/4 of both pk units, is different than putting him on waivers. But then again you would have to find a 3rd line if you did that.

    Anyone have a list of defensemen or decent veteran forwards who will be available or might be available this offseason. We can exclude the Stamkos’, Kopitars, and Staals of the world as we cant afford to sign them long term.

    I know Goligoski is, he will be 31 and likely looking for a long and lasting payday
    Tyson Barrie would be nice pick up. He will just turn 25 and you would have him through the prime years
    Buff – He is really what the team needs but 5 years younger. I don’t think he will hold up for long
    Coburn-

    Nvmd Found the list here
    http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/free-agents/2016/ufa/defenseman/

  181. blainer says:

    verdad2.0:
    pocession charge,

    How do you know?
    Many on this board would not make the trade of Hall for OEL , on its basic merits.
    Some of the most revered commentators on here.
    Would Maloney be of thier mindset?

    So if Hall is offered , then maybe OEL is offered up.
    Try.

    My point is relentlessly try.

    We talked about this I think going on 47 thousand times During the off season. Then it was Hall +++ to get OEL .

    Now you are saying just Hall.

    But yes I am a Huge fan of Hall and if that trade became available I would seriously have to consider it. The problem being is that it leaves us weak on the left side.

    The one factor why I would consider it is because Hall is a very injury prone player. Still think it would take more than Hall to get him. Most likely Nuge.. I’m defiantly not ready to make that trade yet.

  182. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: I read something recently that explained that CF and CA are actually poorly correlated.

    You’d “expect” that someone with a lot of CF would have fewer CA and vice-versa but that’s not the way it works.

    Some players are high event with big CF and CA (Erik Karlsson is the poster boy for high event hockey) and basically the NJD are a lot of low event players and others like them.

    I’ll try to dig up the piece later as I can’t find it now (on phone)

    Here’s something to chew on though:

    Oiler Dmen CA/60 with Taylor Hall this year: (sorted by TOI w/ Hall)

    Klef 48.80
    Sekera 60.84
    Gryba 51.33
    Fayne 49.21
    Schultz 47.70
    Nurse 60.52
    Davidson 49.33
    Reinhart 70.49

    Its like Nuke Laloosh pitches and #*$@ ‘s….. kinda all over the place.

    No need to look it up WG, I am fully agreed on the point that some players are higher event than others. Question is, would these high event players have even worse CA without the puck being in the other end as much?

    I really like this idea of bench-marking against Hall though.

  183. AsiaOil says:

    Agree…….100………percent.

    Now as you know I’m not particularly surprised that Talbot is buckling under a starter’s load that he has never faced, and no last season in NY does not count, he was a clear backup and the starter was simply out for a while. Going into the season like this was an option I guess – but damn you better be ready to make a deal for a veteran if necessary – and we are almost there. LB is not an option – leave him the AHL to finish his apprenticeship. Goal is like defense – guys with too little experience playing too high up the food chain and getting rocked.

    Why is Reinhart chained to Gryba when it’s clearly not working? I think GR/Davidson-Shultz might actually work as a 3rd pair but new kids need a stable vet to learn from. Nurse will go south soon enough with similar treatment and there is no way you can run GR, Nurse, Davidson and Klef all at the same time. This has to stop and a trade is necessary – now.

    I’m disappointed – but at the same time – you would have to be blind not to see the improvement. A single summer was never going to fix this but it’s going in the right direction. Need a trade to keep that going though. With the emergence of Drai you can see how time is important with the kids – totally out of his depth last year – solid contributor now. Trade the #1 and spare dman like Gryba for someone like Spurgeon and send Nurse back to the AHL. Play Shultz and Davidson/GR on 3rd pair after he gets back.

    Sekera Spurgeon
    Klef Fayne
    GR/Davidson Shultz

    Lots of moves to be made but the 20 game evaluation period is pretty much over and Chia will start dealing.

    G Money: Last night, the ECHL level turnover that lost the game was on the goalie, and no-one else.

    The goal that lost the Calgary game was a terrible behind-the-line shot that any D would happily give up a thousand times because you should never ever score from there.But it found its way through Talbot.

    MANY of the goals have nothing to do with the D, and everything to do with poor goaltending.If it was all on the D, we’d be talking about how our heroic goalies got snowed under by the huge number of dangerous chances given up.

    That hasn’t happened but twice this season.Most games, it’s been the goalies giving up soft goals from lousy scoring positions, killing momentum, killing morale, killing games outright.

    Time to stop making excuses for the goalies.

    Rather than blaming the D (quite a number of goalies play behind worse tire fires and do just fine, as a multitude of folks here have shown), we have to ask why the goalies keep giving up soft goals.

    Perhaps we should ask why the team has spent every year the last five seasons counting on a starting goalie with less than two seasons of experience to backstop the team.

    I like the Talbot bet, still do, but posted from before we signed him that I feared risk of a ‘starters dip’, which has bitten a huge number of goalies in that 60 to 120 game region when handed the starters reins for the first time.

    The correct answer is to have a veteran starting calibre goalie i.e. NOT Fasth, Larbarbera, Nilsson, to fall back on if that happens.Give the youngsters a real safety net, for Pete’s sake.

  184. stephen sheps says:

    Gret99zky: The point is there are some here who would rather watch Hall put up crooked numbers on a bottom 5 team his entire career than move him for a chance to win the big prize.

    I think that’s a bit of a stretch. It’s unlikely that any fan of the team wants the Oilers to be in the basement for another decade, but after nearly 30 years of trading away everyone who’s ever been good, it would be preferable to keep Hall and see him win a Stanley in Edmonton.

    I get that you have to give up big pieces in order to get big pieces back, but there have to be limits, Right now there are only 5 untouchables on this team. McDreamy, Nuge and Hall up front, Klef and Nurse on the back end. Everyone else can and should be on the table for the right defensive piece coming back.

    The oft-repeated Hall for OEL trade is asinine. You don’t trade the 2nd best LW in hockey for maybe the 8th best (if we’re feeling generous) d-man, but that’s almost beside the point. The reality is, as good as Doughty, Keith, PK, Hedman, Weber, Suter, McDonagh, Karlsson and OEL are, the way the team is currently built will still be flawed even if any of these top flight defensemen are acquired. Same with bringing in a 2nd tier/player on the rise type (WG’s shrine to Spurgeon included… though I am really high on that idea, too). These players, as good as they are, don’t single-handedly will their teams to glory. It takes time to build chemistry and build a team, especially one that has been so bad for so long.

    2006 was an aberration, not the norm. It was the perfect convergence of vets and youth as well as a D that had not only CfP but also many other very good veteran players who were not asked to play roles they were not suited for. And even with CfP, that team was barely a playoff team until quality goaltending was procured and lightning was bottled. The Oilers right now are not a 1RD away from Stanley.

    Draft and develop is a fine way to play the medium to long game, and a real hockey trade from a position of strength rather than weakness is an even better way to help bolster a team on the rise. Trading Hall is a desperate move, not a smart one.

    End rant.

  185. spoiler says:

    spoiler: 3. Thus, is there any value in calculating based on total DZ starts available? Oilers D had 22 shifts starts off a FO last night, which means 7-8 per pairing assuming equal TOI, or 3-4 per player. Weight the SSFO by EV TOI and divide the player’s individual # into that. So we get percentage of actual DZSSFOs vs expected DZSSFOs… any thoughts?

    Going back to Sekera…

    Oil had total of 13 OZ shift starts for Dmen and 22 DZ shift starts.

    I haven’t looked into EVTOI yet, but just assuming they’re all fairly equal for the sake of a thought experiment, then Sekera is about dead on with regards to what we would expect his DZ starts to be.

    However, he should have gotten 2-3 OZ starts and got SFA.

    So his expected Dungeon is dead on, he’s not being crushed on the rack, but his expected Push lags behind the team, he’s not getting a hand up either. Last night, Klefbom received a significant hand up in this regard.

    But even then we are only talking about 14% of Sekera’s total shifts. More, obviously, if we’re isolating EV shift starts. He should have gotten more starts off a whistle than he did, for whatever reason.

    When we’re dealing with small numbers we get big shifts in %s and I’m not sure that’s useful. For eg, Klefbom has 6 OZ SS. Makes a big difference if the expected amount is 2 or if it is 3. This comes out in the wash on a seasonal basis, but game-by-game might look wacky.

  186. Oil2Oilers says:

    Purcell has significantly increased his deadline rental value over the past few weeks. Long may it continue.

  187. spoiler says:

    Your mileage may vary on trading Hall for OEL.

    But trading Hall to a team within the division is insane, and I’m sure Phoenix feels the same way about OEL.

  188. spoiler says:

    Pouzar:
    We need an “ignore” button.

    Seriously.

    While I feel your pain, I don’t think an “Ignore” function is needed at all. Simply scroll past the commenters you don’t want to read. Works for me, lol.

  189. Younger Oil says:

    As mad as I am that the Oilers are on pace for another sub-60 point season, I’m even more mad that the Oilers have 6 wins which puts us in 29th place, and the Canucks have 7 wins and that puts them in 15th place.

  190. stephen sheps says:

    spoiler:
    Your mileage may vary on trading Hall for OEL.

    But trading Hall to a team within the division is insane, and I’m sure Phoenix feels the same way about OEL.

    Agreed.

  191. thelongway says:

    Seems like a good time for my semi-annual post.

    First, as someone mentioned above, I’m genuinely puzzled why people still believe anyone in the oiler’s org has some strange agenda to turn north in the new building. what difference could that possibly make to anyone? the only reason i can come up with is to spite northlands, but that really makes no sense either. any who believe this agenda care to illuminate me?

    Second, i met a young man last night who played against Leon in the whl. says he was the most difficult player to defend by a factor of 10, can’t take the puck off him and can’t defend the pass because he can dish hard accurate passes forehand or backhand from his skates out. i suspect we see Leon in the top 6 for a long time. at center. 1a or 1b. nice problem to have trying to choose btw three outstanding centres 🙂

  192. G Money says:

    spoiler,

    This is exactly right. The one thing this experiment shows is that the current methods of ZS representation do an OK job in representing the relative pushes or pulls, but way overstate their importance in the context of the overall number of shifts.

    spoiler,

    Re: your more detailed (really good) points:

    General 1: Yes, I think ZS could be used to see overall balance. One of the data fields I”m calculating (but don’t show, it’s in the data files) is the overall event count by zone. In LA:

    OZ NZ DZ
    79 26 95

    2. Yes, team adjustments would be necessary I think for comparing between teams. Within team is OK.

    3. Not sure we need to adjust for line rolling. It strikes me that on the fly shift changes occur for two reasons: we have the puck (either zone), or we don’t have the puck (but it’s in the o zone). So it might be more relevant to try and suss out whether the team has possession or not, rather than which line was previous. Of course, I have no idea how to do that either…

    4. D vs F – have all player data, so should be easy to calculate.

    Specific 1. Yup, I think this is where the value is. Put the ZS in context with all shifts. It shrinks the numbers dramatically.

    2. Yes, special teams will have some effect, not sure how much. The shift counts are ‘all’, but the faceoffs I’m counting are only for EV. Will try to drop all full special team shifts, not sure I can do that for the ones that mix.

    3. Actual vs expected… hmmm, interesting adjustment. Will see what it looks like.

    Thanks for the feedback!

  193. G Money says:

    Woodguy: I read something recently that explained that CF and CA are actually poorly correlated.
    You’d “expect” that someone with a lot of CF would have fewer CA and vice-versa but that’s not the way it works.
    Some players are high event with big CF and CA (Erik Karlsson is the poster boy for high event hockey) and basically the NJD are a lot of low event players and others like them.
    I’ll try to dig up the piece later as I can’t find it now (on phone)

    No need to dig anything up, you can see that with the Oiler players this season. No correlation between CA and CF rates for players.

    http://i.imgur.com/I2Lklhg.png

  194. Woodguy says:

    Talked to someone who was at the game last night and I guess after the game Sutter mentioned “what a load 29 was” all night and that “when they get Nugent-Hopkins and McDavid back that’s the team you won’t want to play”

    Baby steps….

  195. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Lowetide: My mistake. Corrected and I thank you!

    damn.

    was hoping you knew something I didn’t

    4P in 13GP still solid for a 20YO D in the K

  196. Woodguy says:

    G Money: No need to dig anything up, you can see that with the Oiler players this season.No correlation between CA and CF rates for players.

    http://i.imgur.com/I2Lklhg.png

    Thanks!

    You’re like the data fairy.

    I mean that in the best way possible.

  197. spoiler says:

    G Money: 3. Not sure we need to adjust for line rolling. It strikes me that on the fly shift changes occur for two reasons: we have the puck (either zone), or we don’t have the puck (but it’s in the o zone). So it might be more relevant to try and suss out whether the team has possession or not, rather than which line was previous. Of course, I have no idea how to do that either…

    Not so much adjust as being careful what to ascribe the ZS to…

    Which is why I think we need the expected stat (as well as your Dungeon Push). It won’t remove this factor, but it will lessen its influence on the numbers.

    I mean, we see Klefbomber get 6 OZ Shift Starts. He doesn’t play with Sekera or Nurse… so is he getting those OZSSs because Sekera-Nurse are leaving the puck in the other end? And is Sekera missing those OZSSs because the other pairings never left the puck in the other end for a whistle? At only 2-3 expected, did the opportunity ever even arise?

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