OILERS NO. 3 PROSPECT (winter 2015): DARNELL NURSE

Darnell Nurse brings a unique skill set to every game he plays. A throwback defender who adjusts well to the modern game because of excellent speed and mobility, his size and rugged style are destined to make him a favorite in Edmonton for years.

PREVIOUSLY NO. 3 ON THE WINTER LIST

  • December 2005: G Devan Dubnyk
  • December 2006: C Marc-Antoine Pouliot
  • December 2007: D Tom Gilbert
  • December 2008: D Theo Peckham
  • December 2009: C Riley Nash
  • December 2010: L Magnus Paajarvi
  • December 2011: D Oscar Klefbom
  • December 2012: D Oscar Klefbom
  • December 2013: C Marco Roy
  • December 2014: D Oscar Klefbom

Some very nice NHL players over the last decade have been ranked in this range. Devan Dubnyk and Tom Gilbert have enjoyed careers of significant length with trunks of memories still to come. I’m tempted to say Klefbom (or Nurse) will be the best of this group but all kinds of things can impact the future. Lots of heartbreak here—Pouliot, Peckham, Paajarvi—but some effective players too.

WHAT THEY SAID ON DRAFT DAY

nurse common

  • Kyle Woodlief — USA Today: is the most naturally physical defender available. He made good strides in his offensive game and has a heavy shot that is an asset on the power play. He likes to dish out punishment along the walls and easily separates his check from the puck. Nurse also scores off the charts in both his character and intelligence levels, and at a gangly 6-5, already has the footwork of a much smaller man.
  • Corey Pronman — Hockey Prospectus: Nurse had a considerable amount of hype at the beginning of the season, and he has exceeded all expectations. He is a gifted physical player who has all the natural tools a scout could want from a defenseman. He has slowly begun to emerge as a two-way player, but his value comes from his high-end work in his own end. Nurse is a tall defender with an aggressive edge and the strength to consistently push his checks off pucks. He has above-average mobility, especially considering his larger size.
  • OHL PROSPECTS: Nurse is definitely my top prospect available from the OHL. The thing I like most about Nurse is how much he improved this season from the last. You need to look at that progression and think about just how good he could be, if he continues to tap into his athletic bloodlines (father was a CFL player), and continues to improve. He’s certainly a potential dynamo at both ends of the ice. His size (6’5, pushing 200lbs), makes him an asset in the defensive end. As does his skating ability. He’s incredibly difficult to get around and he’s physical enough to intimidate. As he gets stronger, I expect his physical game to become more consistent and more effective. He certainly has the mentality to be a bruiser.
  • Craig MacTavish: “He gives us an element we’re sorely lacking. He’s a guy who, over time, if we’re patient with him, is going to provide us with toughness. He’s a guy that will ride shotgun for a lot of our first overall picks and our skilled players for a lot of years. But our overriding draft philosophy is still to draft the player who is going to have the greatest impact on our team over time.  Based on that philosophy, I still thought Darnell was the player who is going to have the greatest impact on our team.”

PRE-DRAFT RANKINGS

  • BOB MCKENZIE, TSN: NO. 9
  • RED LINE REPORT: NO. 8
  • CRAIG BUTTON: NO. 8
  • ISS: NO. 6

nurse capture

DARNELL NURSE TOP 20 RANKINGS

  • Summer 2013: No. 1
  • Winter 2013: No. 1
  • Summer 2014: No. 2
  • Winter 2014: No. 2
  • Summer 2015: No. 3
  • Winter 2015: No. 3
  • SSM GM Kyle Dubas, about 2013-14: “People get obsessed with Darnell’s plus/minus (plus-1, down from plus-15 the year prior), but his underlying numbers are excellent. Relative to the competition he plays [against], he does extremely well. Far greater than 50 percent of the time, the puck is not in our end. To me, it doesn’t get much bigger than that. If we’re taking the other team’s best players and forcing them to play in their end and away from the puck, that’s a successful day. The quality of competition he’s faced is higher than anyone else in our league, especially among defencemen.” Source

nurse condors

2015-16

  • Gerry Fleming: “If I was recommending a guy (for recall), I’d have said Darnell. He has been our most complete player. He’s moving the puck more quickly (and making fewer long rushes with it). He’s making good reads.” Source
  • Brad MacPherson: The former CHL players that are the best statistical comparables for Nurse are Pietrangelo, Phaneuf, Barker, Staal and Seabrook. Source
  • Corey Pronman on Nurse and Reinhart: “There’s a small gap (between the two) I like Nurse a lot, he edges Reinhart in my opinion. There’s also an age difference between the two—Reinhart has already played one year of pro—I think they’re similar in terms of proximity to the NHL, they’re both on the bubble. I think Nurse has a little more of a dynamic element to his game. Nurse’s skating is a little bit better and they both project as good defensive players, I think Nurse can bring a little more offense to the NHL.”

  • Lowetide: I know you’re sick of this (your DMs and emails tell me so) but for me there’s no reason for the Oilers to delay the recall of Darnell Nurse. He was quality in the spring during the AHL playoffs and he’s quality now. Call him up, insert him in the lineup. If he’s poor, the Oilers can send him down after a few games. I’ve maintained all along that he is one of the six best defensive options and he should be here now. After watching last night’s game, I can’t imagine anyone disagrees. At the very least they can start getting him that NHL experience he’s going to need in order to start pushing the river at the highest level. The excuse of Griffin Reinhart also needing those initial NHL minutes to have the game slow down for him don’t apply—Reinhart is injured. Call up Darnell Nurse. It’s the right thing to do. Source
  • Hidden Darts: Anyway, Nurse is a man amongst boys. Wow. Great wheels. Real calm. Source
  • David Staples, Cult of HockeyWhile the rest of the Bakersfield d-men, save for big, steady David Musil, got eaten alive this game, Nurse did not. Another strong game where he used his size and speed to good advantage.  Source
  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey: Then there’s the ridiculous athletic prowess that manifested itself in at least two dazzling spinaramas, one a somewhat dangerous but perfectly-executed 360 coming out of his own end, the other a thrust into the low shot after a fine Draisaitl feed that ended with a spinning backhand that seriously tested McCollum. He didn’t look like a man who intends to stay in the AHL for long, even as games like tonight’s will do him a world of good. Source

nurse draisaitl capture

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.15—No. 2 among defensemen
  • 5×4 points per 60: 39.13—No. 1 among defensemen (MAY not stay that high)
  • Qual Comp: No. 9 among D
  • Qual Team: No. 1 among D
  • Corsi Rel: -8.1 (No. 7 among D)
  • Corsi for % 5×5: 48.5 (No. 4 among D)
  • Zone Start: 46.2
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 12/8.3
  • Boxcars: 9GP, 1-3-4 (on pace for 73GP, 8-24-32)

This is a nice player card, Darnell Nurse should have a fine rookie year. I really like his game and he appears to be refining things to reduce the chaos—suggesting he’s highly coachable. Let’s not go crazy, but this is a substantial prospect. His CorsiRel has taken a dip in recent days, as more time (and more defensive zone starts) have him playing tougher minutes. It’s beyond what we should consider ideal, but the Oilers don’t have a better option.

NURSE WOWY

nurse wowy

Nurse is more effective away from Sekera (49.3 versus 48.2) but that’s as discussed—a move up the depth chart. We should assume the possession numbers will be less attractive if Nurse stays in his current role (over 20 minutes in three of his last five games). I’m a big fan of Nurse and his future, but that might be a little too much to expect for his rookie season in pro hockey.

nurse capture1

THE FUTURE

Darnell Nurse is a perfect fit for what Edmonton needs. The Blue Bullet link above rings true, albeit we can’t be sure which comp is the best fit. An outstanding draft pick, finished off a significant junior career in a fashion somewhat similar to Jordan Eberle, and now begins his pro career by walking the streets of Bakersfield for about five minutes, before leaving on a jet plane. Fabulous future. Do NOT be disappointed if he spends more time in the AHL this season. Edmonton has real issues at the position and they need to make sure there’s a reasonable transition from junior to the NHL.

THE 2013 DRAFT

  • Darnell Nurse, No. 7 overall. A quality prospect who has delivered in the early days of his pro career. Has a range of skills and has had good-to-great games already the NHL season. No. 3 prospect, Winter 2015.
  • Marco Roy, No. 59 overall. Didn’t earn an NHL deal, signed to a minor league contract and played early days in the ECHL. Recalled to the AHL, we’ll see how things go.
  • Bogdan Yakimov, No. 83 overall. Mammoth Russian progressing, although he’s a little shy offensively this season in the AHL so far. A candidate for the Winter top 20.
  • Anton Slepyshev, No. 88 overall. Slick Russian winger impressed in camp and won an NHL job. Currently in the minors, but he’s bona fine. Inside the Winter top 20.
  • Jackson Houck, No. 94 overall. Unsigned, playing in junior. No longer in the organization.
  • Kyle Platzer, No. 96 overall. New pro playing well in Bakersfield, good results. A candidate for the Winter top 20.
  • Aidan Muir, No. 113 overall. College winger, not scoring. A candidate for the Winter top 20.
  • Evan Campbell, No. 128 overall. College winger with decent results so far this year. A candidate for the Winter top 20.
  • Ben Betker, No. 158 overall. First year pro in the ECHL currently. Big, strong and good speed. A project. A candidate for the Winter top 20.
  • Greg Chase, No. 188 overall. Turned pro but was sent to the ECHL. Performed well there and was recently called to the AHL. Talented player, but no draft pedigree. A candidate for the Winter top 20.

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140 Responses to "OILERS NO. 3 PROSPECT (winter 2015): DARNELL NURSE"

  1. Lowetide says:

    Today on the Lowdown, 1260TSN at 10 this morning.

    Scott Burnside, ESPN. Trade winds
    Andrew Bucholtz, 55-Yard Line. Eskimos v Stamps this Sunday!
    Sunil Agnihotri, The SuperFAN and Copper & Blue. Talbot, D, Chiarelli’s next move.

    10-1260, @Lowetide

  2. frjohnk says:

    •Craig MacTavish: “He gives us an element we’re sorely lacking. He’s a guy who, over time, if we’re patient with him, is going to provide us with toughness. He’s a guy that will ride shotgun for a lot of our first overall picks and our skilled players for a lot of years. But our overriding draft philosophy is still to draft the player who is going to have the greatest impact on our team over time. Based on that philosophy, I still thought Darnell was the player who is going to have the greatest impact on our team.”

    Believe it or not, MacT was right some of the time.

    With Nurse, he hit the bulls eye.

  3. linkfromhyrule says:

    There is no good reason for Nurse to be taking on this much responsibility, this early into his NHL career.

    Fantastic player though, he is the type of defenseman I would hate if he played for another team! Can’t wait to see him victimize the Flames and the Canucks

    I think it speaks to the quality of this young man that he can come in as a rookie and not look out of place.

    Hopefully he will be here for the next 15 years!

  4. Pouzar says:

    NYR: 14-2-2 30 pts; leading the Metro with 30 pts. 7 pts clear of the Capitals.

    CF% 46.1; Rank 28th in the NHL
    Save %: .959; Rank #1 in the NHL
    ——————————————————————————

    EDM: 6-12-0 12 pts; dead last in the NHL

    CF% 48.5; Rank 21st in the NHL
    Save %: .899; Rank #28th in the NHL

    ——————————————————————————

    Conclusion?

    Trade for NYR’s D.

  5. blainer says:

    frjohnk:
    •Craig MacTavish: “He gives us an element we’re sorely lacking. He’s a guy who, over time, if we’re patient with him, is going to provide us with toughness. He’s a guy that will ride shotgun for a lot of our first overall picks and our skilled players for a lot of years. But our overriding draft philosophy is still to draft the player who is going to have the greatest impact on our team over time.Based on that philosophy, I still thought Darnell was the player who is going to have the greatest impact on our team.”

    Believe it or not, MacT was right some of the time.

    With Nurse, he hit the bulls eye.

    Absolutely. and I was one of those dummies who was pissed we passed on Nichuskin.

    I have to say though I think they are coaching too much of Nurses walk about out of his game. He is an excellent skater and I would actually love to see more of him rushing the puck ala PK Subban.

  6. frjohnk says:

    Pouzar: Conclusion?
    Trade for NYR’s D.

    I think you are forgetting some of those Ranger saves made on the tonight show are showing up in save % stat.

    Need to compare apples to apples.

    Not apples to pumpkin pies.

  7. Pouzar says:

    blainer: Absolutely. and I was one of those dummies who was pissed we passed on Nichuskin.

    LOL I was going to ask “where are all the Nichuskin now?” 😛

    Say it ain’t so!!!!

    Not that Nish won’t be good but dayuum we needed a stud D prospect.

  8. Woodguy says:

    Love me some Nurse.

    He is playing top pairing on the Oilers DUE TO MERIT 11 games into his NHL career.

    Loooooooooorrrdy.

    Klefbom is ahead of him right now, but its best to split him and Sekera in order to have 2 serviceable pairs.

    Love the player, fills many voids on the Oilers.

    Love big mean Dmen who separate the man from the puck and can then skate or pass it out and Nurse already doing that against he best.

    He couldn’t have arrived a moment too soon.

    Glad MacT took him.

  9. Woodguy says:

    I just wanted to let you all know that Talbot’s dip in my fault.

    On October 22nd Cam Talbot had played 5 games and was sporting a .920 SV%.

    Lowetide wrote this about him:

    Cam Talbot was the first star in the game I saw. He is calm, effective, aggressive and owns a .920 SP for the Edmonton Oilers. Goalies are voodoo, a man got fired in Columbus the other day because of another collapse in the net by a perfectly good stopper. Credit to the Oilers (and Woodguy) for identifying the right man to target. They should probably start talking about numbers for a contract.

    I was on LT’s show that day and when the subject of Talbot came up I said:

    “I’m going to dine out for free for 10 years on my Talbot posts”

    Since then Talbot has played 7 games and put up a .867 SV%.

    Every time I crow about how good things are going they go for shit.

    The Gords do not like hubris at all.

    An example from the real world is that I have bought a house to fix and flip twice. Once in 2007 just before house prices dropped due to the great recession and then again last September before oil crashed and started to drive housing prices south again.

    I publicly apologize to the Gords. I am weeping and knashing my teeth. My clothing are sack clothes. My face smeared with ashes.

    I shall give you offerings of fine spirits and charred flesh with fat.

    I hope you will find these pleasing, forgive my personal failings, and restore Mr. Talbot to his true ability.

    I’m sorry.

  10. G Money says:

    Nurse is more effective away from Sekera (49.3 versus 48.2) but that’s as discussed—a move up the depth chart.

    Just remember to be cautious with statements based around comparing CF% for individuals.

    Leaving aside the discussions of whether it’s a good measure (I think using WOWYs is the most effective use of CF% for defensemen because of the heavy use of context), the error bars around CF% at the individual level should be quite wide even when looking at a seasons worth of data, and even moreso when this early in the season.

    IMO, a difference of 49.3 vs 48.2 is not significant. I think at this stage you’d have to see at least a 3 or 4% difference at the player level to be convinced it is meaningful (that’s not a significance or p-value type of statement, just gut feel).

    Looking at the WOWY table, the only thing I’d suggest you can be confident in saying is that Taylor Hall meshes with Nurse in a significant way, but the rest of the differences are small enough that at this stage they are almost certainly just noise.

  11. speeds says:

    OT, but re: Draisaitl – what kind of season do people think he’d need to have to be selected for team Europe?

  12. blainer says:

    Pouzar: LOL I was going to ask “where are all the Nichuskin now?”

    Say it ain’t so!!!!

    Not that Nish won’t be good but dayuum we needed a stud D prospect.

    Yup. we can say a lot of shitty about what Mact did.. but boy I really think he hit this one out of the park.

    For all the debates we have had about that stud D we need to trade for especially the latest crazy one .. basically Nuge for Hanifan ..

    we are missing the fact we have Hanifan already. Hanifan isn’t even a RT shot.

    Nurse is the next Chris Pronger.

    I am calling it now. By this time next year he will be that D all the other blogs say their teams should try to trade for..

  13. PhrankLee says:

    Woodguy: I just wanted to let you all know that Talbot’s dip in my fault.
    On October 22nd Cam Talbot had played 5 games and was sporting a .920 SV%.
    Lowetide wrote this about him:
    Cam Talbot was the first star in the game I saw. He is calm, effective, aggressive and owns a .920 SP for the Edmonton Oilers. Goalies are voodoo, a man got fired in Columbus the other day because of another collapse in the net by a perfectly good stopper. Credit to the Oilers (and Woodguy) for identifying the right man to target. They should probably start talking about numbers for a contract.
    I was on LT’s show that day and when the subject of Talbot came up I said:
    “I’m going to dine out for free for 10 years on my Talbot posts”
    Since then Talbot has played 7 games and put up a .867 SV%.
    Every time I crow about how good things are going they go for shit.
    The Gords do not like hubris at all.
    An example from the real world is that I have bought a house to fix and flip twice. Once in 2007 just before house prices dropped due to the great recession and then again last September before oil crashed and started to drive housing prices south again.
    I publicly apologize to the Gords. I am weeping and knashing my teeth. My clothing are sack clothes. My face smeared with ashes.
    I shall give you offerings of fine spirits and charred flesh with fat.
    I hope you will find these pleasing, forgive my personal failings, and restore Mr. Talbot to his true ability.
    I’m sorry.

    Say… somebody please pass Woodguy the sock.

  14. Woodguy says:

    More “goalies are voodoo” and small sample sizes.

    These are all “this year’s SV% so far, and, then the second number is last year’s SV%”

    Varlamov
    .890
    .921

    HIller
    .861
    .918

    Lack
    .865
    .921

    Elliott
    .887
    .917

    Bobrovsky
    .891
    .918

    Talbot
    .890
    .926

    Bernier
    .895
    .912

    Most of those goales didn’t change teams so you can’t even blame the defense.

    Only one of those goalies plays for the Oilers so you can only blame the Oilers D there.

    All of those goalies except Hiller have another goalie on the roster putting up a decent number over .900 so you can’t blame the defence for both goalies.

    So everyone who wants to throw out Talbot, make sure you would throw out every other goalie on that list and remember what happened to Doobie after he got out of the trash.

  15. Pajamah says:

    Woodguy:
    I just wanted to let you all know that Talbot’s dip in my fault.

    On October 22nd Cam Talbot had played 5 games and was sporting a .920 SV%.

    Lowetide wrote this about him:

    Cam Talbot was the first star in the game I saw. He is calm, effective, aggressive and owns a .920 SP for the Edmonton Oilers. Goalies are voodoo, a man got fired in Columbus the other day because of another collapse in the net by a perfectly good stopper. Credit to the Oilers (and Woodguy) for identifying the right man to target. They should probably start talking about numbers for a contract.

    I was on LT’s show that day and when the subject of Talbot came up I said:

    “I’m going to dine out for free for 10 years on my Talbot posts”

    Since then Talbot has played 7 games and put up a .867 SV%.

    Every time I crow about how good things are going they go for shit.

    The Gords do not like hubris at all.

    An example from the real world is that I have bought a house to fix and flip twice.Once in 2007 just before house prices dropped due to the great recession and then again last September before oil crashed and started to drive housing prices south again.

    I publicly apologize to the Gords.I am weeping and knashing my teeth.My clothing are sack clothes.My face smeared with ashes.

    I shall give you offerings of fine spirits and charred flesh with fat.

    I hope you will find these pleasing, forgive my personal failings, and restore Mr. Talbot to his true ability.

    I’m sorry.

    I blame Bookje.

  16. speeds says:

    re: Nichushkin vs. Nurse – I said at the time of the draft that I felt there was enough of a gap between Nishushkin and Nurse that I didn’t think it was wise to pass on Nichushkin, and don’t really see the information to suggest that I was wrong at the time. Nurse has certainly developed well to this point, Nichushkin was injured, missed most of a year, and hasn’t got on track this year (hopefully it’s not a lingering problem).

    At the time, IIRC I said take Nichushkin if looking at BPA, Horvat if looking for a C, and Ristolainen (not Nurse) if looking for a D, none of which is to say I didn’t think Nurse was a good prospect – I did.

  17. Bank Shot says:

    speeds:
    OT, but re: Draisaitl – what kind of season do people think he’d need to have to be selected for team Europe?

    Do they really have enough NHLers to chose from that he’d be left off the team regardless of how he plays from here on out?

    There can’t be more than 15-20 players from the “rest of Europe”.

  18. Adam Wu says:

    blainer: Yup. we can say a lot of shitty about what Mact did.. but boy I really think he hit this one out of the park.

    For all the debates we have had about that stud D we need to trade for especially the latest crazy one .. basically Nuge for Hanifan ..

    we are missing the fact we have Hanifan already. Hanifan isn’t even a RT shot.

    Nurse is the next Chris Pronger.

    I am calling it now. By this time next year he will be that D all the other blogs say their teams should try to trade for..

    This is a trade. A trade of time (one more non-competitive season) and fan angst for the top 2 D that the team needs.

  19. JDï™ says:

    Woodguy: So everyone who wants to throw out Talbot, make sure you would throw out every other goalie on that list and remember what happened to Doobie after he got out of the trash.

    I would never throw out a Doobie.

  20. slopitch says:

    The top 10 of the 2013 looks to be very solid. Im a huge fan of Nurse. Both Monahan and Ritsolainen appear solid as well. The only guy who appears to be lacking up there is Elias Lindholm and yet its early.

    Anyways, again I’m a big Nurse fan. I look forward to 40ish games from now when he gets his NHL swagger. When he played in junior it looked like he owned the ice. Right now he’s trying to figure it out still. I still think another 10 or so games in the AHL would help him although he’s one of the best 5 d on the team already. A trade now for a vet dman would help this d core immensely. Give this man some shelter!

  21. G Money says:

    blainer: Absolutely. and I was one of those dummies who was pissed we passed on Nichuskin.

    To be fair to yourself and others, we should remind ourselves about the mantra:

    Take the best player available, don’t pick for need!

    And then we should think about what that *actually* means.

    People confuse this to mean that if Bobby Mac has a winger ranked #5 and defenseman ranked #6, and your team is choc-a-bloc with wingers and desperately need defensemen, then you should still take the #5 ranked winger ahead of the #6 ranked defenseman because ‘BPA’.

    That’s wrong.

    The difference between #5 and #6 in the rankings is not meaningful. Never has been. Usually the idea of a meaningful difference goes something like: 1 gap 2 gap 3 to 8 gap 9 to 20 gap 21 to 40 gap everybody else.

    So the “BPA error” happens when you ‘jump a gap’ to select for need. You’re picking fourth and you pick a guy rated 10th because of need. That’s a mistake.

    Selecting Nurse (and Draisaitl) was not a mistake, even as the Oilers theoretically passed on a higher ranked player.

    The actual difference between Nichushkin and Nurse was 1 spot. Trivial. Taking Nurse was the right call. In that case, selecting for need is not a problem, because you’re not really skipping the best player available.

    Ditto when the choice came between Bennett and Draisaitl. 1 or 2 spot difference. Not significant. In that case, the choice was between a giant possession-driving playmaking centre, vs a small gifted dynamic but injury prone player. The Oilers needed the former far more than the latter. Picking Drai was the right choice, because they weren’t really skipping the best player available.

    It’s only when picking for need causes you to jump a gap, and take a meaningfully less capable player, that you’ve screwed up.

    Nurse and Drai do not count in that.

    (I haven’t changed my tune in retrospect on those guys, you can go check the threads, if we didn’t get Monahan, I wanted Nurse, and I wanted Drai over Bennett).

  22. Gret99zky says:

    frjohnk:
    •Craig MacTavish: “He gives us an element we’re sorely lacking. He’s a guy who, over time, if we’re patient with him, is going to provide us with toughness. He’s a guy that will ride shotgun for a lot of our first overall picks and our skilled players for a lot of years. But our overriding draft philosophy is still to draft the player who is going to have the greatest impact on our team over time.Based on that philosophy, I still thought Darnell was the player who is going to have the greatest impact on our team.”

    Believe it or not, MacT was right some of the time.

    With Nurse, he hit the bulls eye.

    Nurse is a quality player. Will make a difference with more experience.

    I wonder when MacT said, “…over time, if we’re patient with him…” he meant play him in the top four after a dozen AHL games?

  23. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy:
    More “goalies are voodoo” and small sample sizes.

    These are all “this year’s SV% so far, and, then the second number is last year’s SV%”

    Varlamov
    .890
    .921

    HIller
    .861
    .918

    Lack
    .865
    .921

    Elliott
    .887
    .917

    Bobrovsky
    .891
    .918

    Talbot
    .890
    .926

    Bernier
    .895
    .912

    Most of those goales didn’t change teams so you can’t even blame the defense.

    Only one of those goalies plays for the Oilers so you can only blame the Oilers D there.

    All of those goalies except Hiller have another goalie on the roster putting up a decent number over .900 so you can’t blame the defence for both goalies.

    So everyone who wants to throw out Talbot, make sure you would throw out every other goalie on that list and remember what happened to Doobie after he got out of the trash.

    You can throw in

    Rask
    .896
    .922

    Mason
    .895
    .928

    as well.

    Goalies are voodoo.

  24. speeds says:

    Bank Shot,

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=750200

    This was a mock roster I found (from last season)

  25. blainer says:

    Adam Wu: This is a trade. A trade of time (one more non-competitive season) and fan angst for the top 2 D that the team needs.

    Ya it’s really tough to say one more seanon but you’re right. I expect us to even turn the corner on the back half of this year.

    We should find that number three D in free agency or trade as well.

  26. Bank Shot says:

    The great thing about Nurse is that he’s a good bet to play top four for a long time in this league and he’s the type of guy that will make the Gryba, Fistric, Strudwick, Sutton, role obsolete on this team.

    Guys like this are fantastic. Multi-faceted guys like this prevent managers from feeling like they have go go out and sign one trick pony players in order to fill team needs.

    Now it the Oilers could find another Stoll. Faceoffs, PP bomb, Pk that would be amazing.

    Regarding Oilers and voodoo. If the Oilers make a move for goaltending at some point in the future they shouldn’t give up assets for a goalie who isn’t a clear cut starter. They’ve wasted far too many picks on backups with nothing to show for it. If you are going to gamble on backups you might as well just sign two random UFA goalies every off season and hope for the best. Couldn’t really do any worse than what they have done.

    For the record I think Talbot looks like a decent goaltender and its poor defence that is the major culprit behind the Oilers defensive troubles.

  27. frjohnk says:

    Gret99zky: I wonder when MacT said, “…over time, if we’re patient with him…” he meant play him in the top four after a dozen AHL games?

    If that was the case, Nurse would have been on the team last year.

    MacT made a lot of mistakes,

    but his drafting and development of Nurse ( 2 years of jr after draft) is something I have not one ounce of a problem with.

  28. kinger_OIL says:

    It’s important to consider the dynamics that are a reality in high level sport:

    – All the good players think: “Man if we just had average goaling, we would be so much better” and that can’t help but being projected

    – The bad goalers think: “Man, we really have some good stuff going on, why do I suck so much, and let this team down?” they know the players know, and over-goalering to not let in goals is bad

    – Neither Nilson nor Talbot have a CV that points to long stretches of struggle in the NHL and then recovered: everyone knows it, and the team doesn’t have a G they believe in

    – So this is when McL gets paid: to figure out how to change the mood in the room, and of course, hope the Goalers makes more saves, and weather the storm, regress to the meat

  29. dustrock says:

    speeds: Bank Shot, http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=750200This was a mock roster I found (from last season)

    Based on this roster, looking at the Team Europe forwards, I would think Draisaitl would receive strong consideration. Put Hossa and Gaborik with him!!

    LT – you’ve been saying, I think for 2-3 weeks now, that surely a trade must be coming, that Chiarelli cannot sit on this D for long. Do you really think he’s going to make a trade? Do the injuries impact his ability (or his desire) to make a trade?

    Isn’t this season already a write-off? The entire world knows we need improvement on D, so I expect the price is going to be obscenely high, especially in the first half of the season. I’m sure he’s making calls, but I expect he’s politely declining any offers out there.

  30. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    People keep saying ‘well, look how many goalies have come here to die, it must be the D, right?’

    And then you read the game threads and people are angry and frustrated over soft goals – i.e. goals tied not to bad defense (we lay the blame on the defense when those happen) but on a poor play by the goaltender. Goals from far away. Goals from bad angles.

    Those are on the goalie and only the goalie, and no-one else.

    Rather than look to ‘shell shock’ or find some other explanation for what is happening, let’s recognize that the issue at hand is likely to be because we keep bringing in the same type of goalie, over and over and over, and ask the to be a starter for the first time.

    And then we wonder why they fail.

    Hey young goalie with 60 to 120 games and never been a starter before!
    – Please handle a starters work load for the first time in your career!
    – Please ignore that the only goalie supporting you is also new to the league, so the pressure of being a starter is ALL ON YOU, because THERE IS NO PLAN B!
    – Please do so behind one of the worst defenses in the league! Don’t count on them for help!
    – Please do so for a team that is unendingly one of the youngest in the league and yet has to learn a new system pretty much every year!
    – Please do so in a fishbowl Canadian market where your team is the biggest draw by an order of magnitude, and hundreds of thousands of fans will deconstruct and then agonize over your every mistake!

    Um. Yeah.

    The play this year was to sign Talbot. He’s going to be good, of this I have no doubt.

    But no disrespect to Anders Nilsson (which was also an excellent signing), the Oilers needed a safety net – for Talbot and the team. Even a mediocre veteran would have been just fine. A guy with a history of delivering decent results against NHL competition while handling the stress and workload of being a starter.

  31. Woodguy says:

    JDï™: I would never throw out a Doobie.

    The 7th son of the 7th son agrees.

  32. rickithebear says:

    frjohnk:
    •Craig MacTavish: “He gives us an element we’re sorely lacking. He’s a guy who, over time, if we’re patient with him, is going to provide us with toughness. He’s a guy that will ride shotgun for a lot of our first overall picks and our skilled players for a lot of years. But our overriding draft philosophy is still to draft the player who is going to have the greatest impact on our team over time.Based on that philosophy, I still thought Darnell was the player who is going to have the greatest impact on our team.”

    Believe it or not, MacT was right some of the time.

    With Nurse, he hit the bulls eye.

    MacT’s D drafted
    #7 2013 Nurse Cdn WJC
    #158 2013 Betker
    #91 2014 Lagesson SWE WJC @ 18

    Mact’s C drafted
    #56 2013 MOR
    #83 2013 Yakimov
    #96 2013 Platzer
    #188 2013 Chase
    #3 2014 Draisatl

    We should keep him around so chia dos not get near the draft!

  33. dustrock says:

    Bank Shot: For the record I think Talbot looks like a decent goaltender and its poor defence that is the major culprit behind the Oilers defensive troubles.

    He had a run of games where he was .920. Now he’s way, way worse than that. I’m sure some of it is defensive problems, and lack of confidence in his D corpse.

    But there have been at least 2-3 egregious, “how did that slip in?” goals, where you’d think 1 is enough for a 10-15 game period (as we know all goalies let in horrendous goals). And there simply haven’t been enough prime time “Grant Fuhr when we needed it most” saves.

    The 4th Kings goal was eminently saveable. And a confident Talbot would have been all over it.

  34. blainer says:

    G Money: To be fair to yourself and others, we should remind ourselves about the mantra:

    Take the best player available, don’t pick for need!

    And then we should think about what that *actually* means.

    People confuse this to mean that if Bobby Mac has a winger ranked #5 and defenseman ranked #6, and your team is choc-a-bloc with wingers and desperately need defensemen, then you should still take the #5 ranked winger ahead of the #6 ranked defenseman because ‘BPA’.

    That’s wrong.

    The difference between #5 and #6 in the rankings is not meaningful.Never has been.Usually the idea of a meaningful difference goes something like: 1 gap 2 gap 3 to 8 gap 9 to 20 gap 21 to 40 gap everybody else.

    So the “BPA error” happens when you ‘jump a gap’ to select for need.You’re picking fourth and you pick a guy rated 10th because of need.That’s a mistake.

    Selecting Nurse (and Draisaitl) was not a mistake, even as the Oilers theoretically passed on a higher ranked player.

    The actual difference between Nichushkin and Nurse was 1 spot. Trivial.Taking Nurse was the right call.In that case, selecting for need is not a problem, because you’re not really skipping the best player available.

    Ditto when the choice came between Bennett and Draisaitl.1 or 2 spot difference.Not significant.In that case, the choice was between a giant possession-driving playmaking centre, vs a small gifted dynamic but injury prone player.The Oilers needed the former far more than the latter.Picking Drai was the right choice, because they weren’t really skipping the best player available.

    It’s only when picking for need causes you to jump a gap, and take a meaningfully less capable player, that you’ve screwed up.

    Nurse and Drai do not count in that.

    (I haven’t changed my tune in retrospect on those guys, you can go check the threads, if we didn’t get Monahan, I wanted Nurse, and I wanted Drai over Bennett).

    Ya I remember I was pissed we didn’t get Monahan. Loved that player.

    Most of this blog were expecting the Drai pick as size was a big complaint during his draft year.
    The exception was LT as I think he had Bennett at 1st overall.

    I was surprised though with the Nurse pick As size up front was also a big problem when we passed on Nich.

    Really happy with that decision Now.

  35. Bank Shot says:

    speeds:
    Bank Shot,

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=750200

    This was a mock roster I found (from last season)

    Stronger than I thought actually. Hansen in Vancouver probably makes a case this year and a guy like Grabner has to be on the outs.

    Even if the management favours vets Draisaitl seems like an excellent bet to make the team even if he slows down quite a bit.

    Who picks that team anyway? CLB Gm?

  36. zatch says:

    dustrock: Based on this roster, looking at the Team Europe forwards, I would think Draisaitl would receive strong consideration.Put Hossa and Gaborik with him!!

    LT – you’ve been saying, I think for 2-3 weeks now, that surely a trade must be coming, that Chiarelli cannot sit on this D for long.Do you really think he’s going to make a trade?Do the injuries impact his ability (or his desire) to make a trade?

    Isn’t this season already a write-off?The entire world knows we need improvement on D, so I expect the price is going to be obscenely high, especially in the first half of the season.I’m sure he’s making calls, but I expect he’s politely declining any offers out there.

    It has been said to not hold ones breath for a trade before American Thanksgiving in this league. I don’t know how true that is, but it sounds like it. Hopefully a few dominoes will fall that last weekend of November/first week of December as the very bottom teams decide what the plan is and others panic. That 20-25 game mark matters to a lot of coaches and GM’s too.

    Daily advocating of trading the 1st rounder for Edmonton.

  37. Pouzar says:

    Apparently McDavid will be available at Oilers Practice to discuss injury.

  38. Lowetide says:

    dustrock: Based on this roster, looking at the Team Europe forwards, I would think Draisaitl would receive strong consideration.Put Hossa and Gaborik with him!!

    LT – you’ve been saying, I think for 2-3 weeks now, that surely a trade must be coming, that Chiarelli cannot sit on this D for long.Do you really think he’s going to make a trade?Do the injuries impact his ability (or his desire) to make a trade?

    Isn’t this season already a write-off?The entire world knows we need improvement on D, so I expect the price is going to be obscenely high, especially in the first half of the season.I’m sure he’s making calls, but I expect he’s politely declining any offers out there.

    The trade would have to benefit this and next season, but yes, I think it should be out there. LOTS of unhappy teams.

  39. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAint'sSo! says:

    blainer,

    Yes!!!!

    Agree 100% and have been saying it since summer 2014.

  40. Pouzar says:

    I think Shattenkirk shakes loose before seasons end. Just a hunch.

  41. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear: MacT’s D drafted
    #7 2013 Nurse Cdn WJC
    #158 2013 Betker
    #91 2014 Lagesson SWE WJC @ 18

    Mact’s C drafted
    #56 2013 MOR
    #83 2013 Yakimov
    #96 2013 Platzer
    #188 2013 Chase
    #3 2014 Draisatl

    We should keep him around so chia dos not get near the draft!

    Chia had a good 2015 draft

    Bear and Jones are top 10 WHL D man scoring.
    Paigin played in the WJC’s for Russia last year. 6 foot 6. 3 points in 11 KHL games.

  42. rickithebear says:

    SMB: top 50 picks:
    Under tambo:
    #22 2008 Eberle
    #10 2009 MPS
    #40 2009 Lander
    #1 2010 Hall
    #31 2010 Pitlick
    #46 2010 Marincin
    #48 2010 Hamiltn
    #1 2011 RNH
    #19 2011 Klefbom
    #31 2011 Musil
    #1 2012 Yakupov
    #32 2012 Moroz

    Under MacT
    #7 Nurse
    #3 Draisatl

    Successful ? sub 50 picks 5 years in.
    Under Tambo
    #162 2010 Davidson
    #114 2011 Reider

  43. rickithebear says:

    frjohnk: Chia had a good 2015 draft

    Bear and Jones are top 10 WHLD man scoring.
    Paigin played in the WJC’s for Russia last year.6 foot 6.3 points in 11 KHL games.

    Isn’t Mact still seen scouting prospets?

  44. rickithebear says:

    Bank Shot: Stronger than I thought actually. Hansen in Vancouver probably makes a case this year and a guy like Grabner has to be on the outs.

    Even if the management favours vets Draisaitl seems like an excellent bet to make the team even if he slows down quite a bit.

    Who picks that team anyway? CLB Gm?

    Krueger?

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=786674

  45. linkfromhyrule says:

    speeds:
    Bank Shot,

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=750200

    This was a mock roster I found (from last season)

    Draisaitl has more points than about 9 of the forwards listed on that roster. If he sustains his current level of play, I don’t see any possibility of him being left off the roster. Unless moar vetzzz

  46. kinger_OIL says:

    G Money,

    G – We agree! It’s Risk Management! We know goalers struggle, but with no safety, they struggle and wither and die in Oil, before recovering elsewhere.

    – Cam’s a good goaler on small sample size, but in tandemn with a KHL special on this team, in this situation, with this D, it was certainly a possibility for these struggles

    – Cam mops like he’s let in 9 goals in a game 7, all 5-hole: he’s struggling, its not over, but he doesn’t have the experience to deal as he’s never been starter before, and our D can’t bail him

  47. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Oilers scored 8 goals in 3 games last week.

    Leon Draisaitl had:

    2 goals
    3 primary assists
    1 secondary assist
    2 tertiary assists

    6 points, and a direct involvement in 8 out of 8 Edmonton goals. Should be a good candidate for one of the NHL’s 3 stars of the week, for what that’s worth. Leon is hot, hot, hot.

  48. blainer says:

    linkfromhyrule: Draisaitl has more points than about 9 of the forwards listed on that roster. If he sustains his current level of play, I don’t see any possibility of him being left off the roster. Unless moar vetzzz

    If Drai continues at this pace until CMD returns watch out for this team in the second half even with shitty goalering. IF we stay healthy that is.

  49. Lowetide says:

    G Money:
    Woodguy,

    People keep saying ‘well, look how many goalies have come here to die, it must be the D, right?’

    And then you read the game threads and people are angry and frustrated over soft goals – i.e. goals tied not to bad defense (we lay the blame on the defense when those happen) but on a poor play by the goaltender.Goals from far away. Goals from bad angles.

    Those are on the goalie and only the goalie, and no-one else.

    Rather than look to ‘shell shock’ or find some other explanation for what is happening, let’s recognize that the issue at hand is likely to be because we keep bringing in the same type of goalie, over and over and over, and ask the to be a starter for the first time.

    And then we wonder why they fail.

    Hey young goalie with 60 to 120 games and never been a starter before!
    – Please handle a starters work load for the first time in your career!
    – Please ignore that the only goalie supporting you is also new to the league, so the pressure of being a starter is ALL ON YOU, because THERE IS NO PLAN B!
    – Please do so behind one of the worst defenses in the league! Don’t count on them for help!
    – Please do so for a team that is unendingly one of the youngest in the league and yet has to learn a new system pretty much every year!
    – Please do so in a fishbowl Canadian market where your team is the biggest draw by an order of magnitude, and hundreds of thousands of fans will deconstruct and then agonize over your every mistake!

    Um.Yeah.

    The play this year was to sign Talbot.He’s going to be good, of this I have no doubt.

    But no disrespect to Anders Nilsson (which was also an excellent signing), the Oilers needed a safety net – for Talbot and the team.Even a mediocre veteran would have been just fine.A guy with a history of delivering decent results against NHL competition while handling the stress and workload of being a starter.

    I don’t think the safety net helps because it’s such a cap issue. Jonas Hiller is expensive.

  50. G Money says:

    This article:

    http://hockey-graphs.com/2015/11/16/distribution-of-quality-of-competition-and-teammates-metrics/

    adds some interesting analysis around the QoC and QoT metrics, but otherwise could have been written using the material debated on this blog in the last couple of weeks!

  51. Bank Shot says:

    G Money: To be fair to yourself and others, we should remind ourselves about the mantra:

    Take the best player available, don’t pick for need!

    And then we should think about what that *actually* means.

    People confuse this to mean that if Bobby Mac has a winger ranked #5 and defenseman ranked #6, and your team is choc-a-bloc with wingers and desperately need defensemen, then you should still take the #5 ranked winger ahead of the #6 ranked defenseman because ‘BPA’.
    That’s wrong

    So the “BPA error” happens when you ‘jump a gap’ to select for need.You’re picking fourth and you pick a guy rated 10th because of need.That’s a mistake.

    Selecting Nurse (and Draisaitl) was not a mistake, even as the Oilers theoretically passed on a higher ranked player.

    Nurse and Drai do not count in that.

    (I haven’t changed my tune in retrospect on those guys, you can go check the threads, if we didn’t get Monahan, I wanted Nurse, and I wanted Drai over Bennett).

    I don’t remember exactly who all comprised the group but there was a vocal, VERY vocal group of posters on this blog who esposed the idea that you should NEVER take a defenceman in the first round.

    I think Nurse will prove to be a good counterpoint to that theory.

    In hindsight, trading the Yakupov pick to move back in the draft or acquire a young up and coming defender was the right move. Knowing the Oilers they would have taken Reinhart so they wouldn’t be any further ahead but it was still the right play at the time to move back for a D.

    If you combine the never take a defence man in the first round with some of the others used here you get:

    BPA, not a defenceman
    BPA, trade for need
    Get good players, keep good players

    Following these three mantras you’ve worked yourself into a corner where you will likely never draft a top defence man unless you fluke out in the later rounds and you can’t trade for one because you won’t give up your good players.

    This is why I think mantras shouldn’t really be a part of the analytics community as it only leads to static thinking instead of analysing each potential move individually.

  52. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear: MacT’s D drafted
    #7 2013 Nurse Cdn WJC
    #158 2013 Betker
    #91 2014 Lagesson SWE WJC @ 18

    Mact’s C drafted
    #56 2013 MOR
    #83 2013 Yakimov
    #96 2013 Platzer
    #188 2013 Chase
    #3 2014 Draisatl

    We should keep him around so chia dos not get near the draft!

    Amateur scouting is what MacT is mostly doing for the org.

  53. blainer says:

    LB is FOURTH in the AHL with a 933% save percentage with goalies that have played a minimum of 8 games. with THREE shutouts.

    If he keeps this pace up over the weekend and our goalies continue to shit the bed he has to be recalled. At least to see how he can do. A 961 save% in his one NHL game also bodes well.

    Man that Ference roster spot still continues to kill us as calling up LB most likely requires playing Gazdic.

  54. Pouzar says:

    Bank Shot: I don’t remember exactly who all comprised the group but there was a vocal, VERY vocal group of posters on this blog who esposed the idea that you should NEVER take a defenceman in the first round.

    WHOA what?

    I think that was Top 5 overall.

  55. Bank Shot says:

    dustrock: He had a run of games where he was .920.Now he’s way, way worse than that.I’m sure some of it is defensive problems, and lack of confidence in his D corpse.

    But there have been at least 2-3 egregious, “how did that slip in?” goals, where you’d think 1 is enough for a 10-15 game period (as we know all goalies let in horrendous goals).And there simply haven’t been enough prime time “Grant Fuhr when we needed it most” saves.

    The 4th Kings goal was eminently saveable. And a confident Talbot would have been all over it.

    In Talbot’s first stretch of games I think everyone will agree he was lights out stopping breakaways and other high percentage chances. He also was getting the post luck and was still giving up over 2 goals a game on average.

    This team never gives a goalie the 23 shot, boring game with only 2-3 high quality scoring chances against that help pad a goalies stats.

  56. stephen sheps says:

    G Money:
    Woodguy,

    Rather than look to ‘shell shock’ or find some other explanation for what is happening, let’s recognize that the issue at hand is likely to be because we keep bringing in the same type of goalie, over and over and over, and ask the to be a starter for the first time.

    And then we wonder why they fail.

    Hey young goalie with 60 to 120 games and never been a starter before!
    – Please handle a starters work load for the first time in your career!
    – Please ignore that the only goalie supporting you is also new to the league, so the pressure of being a starter is ALL ON YOU, because THERE IS NO PLAN B!
    – Please do so behind one of the worst defenses in the league! Don’t count on them for help!
    – Please do so for a team that is unendingly one of the youngest in the league and yet has to learn a new system pretty much every year!
    – Please do so in a fishbowl Canadian market where your team is the biggest draw by an order of magnitude, and hundreds of thousands of fans will deconstruct and then agonize over your every mistake!

    Um.Yeah.

    The play this year was to sign Talbot.He’s going to be good, of this I have no doubt.

    But no disrespect to Anders Nilsson (which was also an excellent signing), the Oilers needed a safety net – for Talbot and the team.Even a mediocre veteran would have been just fine.A guy with a history of delivering decent results against NHL competition while handling the stress and workload of being a starter.

    I kinda disagree with your analysis here, at least up to a point. You conclusions are correct – the expectations aren’t realistic, but it has really only been the last 2 seasons where the goalie has lacked starter’s experience and the backup wasn’t a solid veteran safety valve to lean on.

    This isn’t exactly a long term, established pattern of short-sightedness, but rather a weird 2 year aberration. Unfortunately the goaltending hasn’t been great for many years, save for about 100 game of Dubs sitting around a .917.

    Let’s not forget that Dubnyk was slow played, the classic draft and develop goalie. He established himself by playing behind a veteran goalie with a track record of good to great play who was obviously done by the time he got here, but Tambo gave Khabi a legacy deal, (much like MacT’s Ference contract), but Khabi kept getting the MVP treatment and Dubs never got established until that final Bulin year. JDD was never anything special, yet he was prioritized over Dubs for long stretches, too.

    The last time this team had a legit veteran tandem was Roloson/Garon in 2008/09, coincidentally also the last season MacT coached and the last season the Oilers had anything resembling an established, reasonable defence in front of said established veteran goalie tandem, the last time they had more wins than losses and a point total in the 80s at year end.

    The goalies have been bad, but it seems that it doesn’t really matter what kind of bet each different GM makes, (Broken vet/Rookie; Guy in mid 20s/established old guy backup; guy in mid 20s/Swedish league ex-starter in early 30s; 2 dudes in their 20s), the results have been steadily trending downwards. It’s a personnel issue, a lack of balance, a lack of quality D, a lack of 6s. 7s, and 9s to use the local vernacular that all contribute to the goaltending and the stench of losing that gets in goalies heads. These guys all want a chance to start, but the Oilers have a history so psychologically it is difficult to get out of the headspace of ‘here we go again, it’s all my fault, I suck’), even with a new goalie in the nets.

    I have no doubt that Talbot will get it together and that Nilsson is actually a pretty good goalie, but the goaltending woes are a symptom of a much longer, deeper malaise. They need to find a way to get out of their heads and just play without the pressure of needing to be saviours.

  57. G Money says:

    Lowetide,

    Agreed. You can’t be looking at a top end guy because they’re too expensive.

    So I deliberately use the word mediocre! The key here is:
    – veteran
    – experience with the pressure of being a starter
    – experience with handling the physical workload of being a starter
    – faced NHL snipers and done OK

    As the saying around here goes … “if we could only get league average goaltending …”

    Just getting to ‘average’ is still going to cost some $ ‘because veteran’, but as Oiler fans probably know better than anyone else, it’s cap room you have to spend, because bad goalering can undo any and all underlying progress elsewhere.

    Then Talbot becomes your ‘rises above to become elite’ bet, rather than ‘we’re all in on this guy and only this guy’ bet.

  58. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot,

    I don’t remember exactly who all comprised the group but there was a vocal, VERY vocal group of posters on this blog who esposed the idea that you should NEVER take a defenceman in the first round.

    No group on this blog has every advocated not taking a Dman in the first round..

    The advocacy was for taking forwards at the very top of the draft because often the best Dmen in any particular draft class are not taken at the top of the draft, but the best forwards usually are.

    Its basically saying that scouts are much better projecting fowards than Dmen at the top of the draft, which is what history tells us.

    No one ” esposed the idea that you should NEVER take a defenceman in the first round”

    I bet you want to think that, but its not true.

  59. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar: WHOA what?

    I think that was Top 5 overall.

    Yeah, that’s what it was.

    Basically “if you have a group of forwards and Dmen at the top of the draft, take the forward first”

  60. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: Amateur scouting is what MacT is mostly doing for the org.

    Amen!

  61. Bank Shot says:

    Pouzar: WHOA what?

    I think that was Top 5 overall.

    It may not have been expressly forbidden to draft a D in the first round outisde the top 5, but frowned upon surely by those who repeated the mantra.

  62. Psyche says:

    Lowetide,

    My worry is that our new GM has too much patience and doesn’t mind letting this season spiral downwards. Didn’t we see this when MacT came in. New GM’s don’t have the losing history with the team. So there isn’t a sense of urgency to their action.

    I guess we will find out in the coming weeks in regards to Chiarelli.

  63. Pouzar says:

    Bank Shot: It may not have been expressly forbidden to draft a D in the first round outisde the top 5, but frowned upon surely by those who repeated the mantra.

    I don’t remember it that way at all.

    The burden of proof is on you for this one.

  64. speeds says:

    Bank Shot: It may not have been expressly forbidden to draft a D in the first round outisde the top 5, but frowned upon surely by those who repeated the mantra.

    I am one of those that has a strong preference for F’s at the top of the draft, but that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t ever select a D, depending on the other options.

  65. Lackadaisical says:

    G Money,

    I made a post attempting to clarify myself at about 3 am on last nights thread. If you would be so kind as to check it out, I’d appreciate it. I’d rather not repost it, as it’s longish, and I’m embarrassed by some of the content (I am first and foremost, a shy person unfortunately). I do wish there was private messaging available here! Thanks for your time.

    I suspect you did understand, and address the core of my point, but wanted to be sure.

  66. G Money says:

    Bank Shot: It may not have been expressly forbidden to draft a D in the first round outisde the top 5, but frowned upon surely by those who repeated the mantra.

    Frowned on might be a fair statement.

    Lots (tons) of draft work that shows that taking D high is a riskier choice than taking F high.

    ‘Riskier’ captures it. Doesn’t mean you can’t or shouldn’t, but you need to recognize that there is risk, particularly development risk.

    I think that statement stands true today.

    Substitute ‘mantra’ with ‘rule of thumb’ and you’re cooking with gas.

    If ‘mantra’ becomes ‘ironclad rule that must never be questioned’, as a decision maker, you’re dead meat no matter what the topic.

  67. G Money says:

    Lackadaisical,

    No problem, I’ll find it and respond here.

  68. su_dhillon says:

    Woodguy:
    I just wanted to let you all know that Talbot’s dip in my fault.

    On October 22nd Cam Talbot had played 5 games and was sporting a .920 SV%.

    Lowetide wrote this about him:

    Cam Talbot was the first star in the game I saw. He is calm, effective, aggressive and owns a .920 SP for the Edmonton Oilers. Goalies are voodoo, a man got fired in Columbus the other day because of another collapse in the net by a perfectly good stopper. Credit to the Oilers (and Woodguy) for identifying the right man to target. They should probably start talking about numbers for a contract.

    I was on LT’s show that day and when the subject of Talbot came up I said:

    “I’m going to dine out for free for 10 years on my Talbot posts”

    Since then Talbot has played 7 games and put up a .867 SV%.

    Every time I crow about how good things are going they go for shit.

    The Gords do not like hubris at all.

    An example from the real world is that I have bought a house to fix and flip twice.Once in 2007 just before house prices dropped due to the great recession and then again last September before oil crashed and started to drive housing prices south again.

    I publicly apologize to the Gords.I am weeping and knashing my teeth.My clothing are sack clothes.My face smeared with ashes.

    I shall give you offerings of fine spirits and charred flesh with fat.

    I hope you will find these pleasing, forgive my personal failings, and restore Mr. Talbot to his true ability.

    I’m sorry.

    WG, you’re still my boy but somebody needs to put you in the bathroom. Maybe for your own good
    Sukh

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQpFbfaILzY

  69. Lackadaisical says:

    Thanks!

  70. dustrock says:

    Psyche:
    Lowetide,

    My worry is that our new GM has too much patience and doesn’t mind letting this season spiral downwards. Didn’t we see this when MacT came in. New GM’s don’t have the losing history with the team. So there isn’t a sense of urgency to their action.

    I guess we will find out in the coming weeks in regards to Chiarelli.

    New arena.

  71. Psyche says:

    dustrock,

    The new arena a strong motivator for next season. Which means trade deadline and off-season moves.

    If they sit tight on this roster thru Christmas then we know that there is no urgency for this season. I think there is much to be accomplished this season, maybe not the playoffs, but success and measured improvement are within reach. To do so they need to add a top pairing defender, bumping everyone (except Sekera) down one pairing into more appropriate roles.

  72. Bob Arctor says:

    Pouzar: WHOA what?

    I think that was Top 5 overall.

    What’s Cam Barker up to these days?

  73. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot: It may not have been expressly forbidden to draft a D in the first round outisde the top 5, but frowned upon surely by those who repeated the mantra.

    No.

    Quit making things up.

  74. Bruce McCurdy says:

    G Money:
    Woodguy,
    And then you read the game threads and people are angry and frustrated over soft goals – i.e. goals tied not to bad defense (we lay the blame on the defense when those happen) but on a poor play by the goaltender.Goals from far away. Goals from bad angles.

    Those are on the goalie and only the goalie, and no-one else.

    Well I’m hearing folks hanging the first goal on Saturday on Talbot, and it was a bad goal from his perspective. But before he got beaten Oilers had full control behind the icing line and two Kings forwards, Tanner Pearson & Marian Gaborik, beat up Sekera & Nurse & stole their lunch money & in about two seconds flat the puck went from an Oilers possession to a two-foot shot from the edge of the crease. Should Talbot have played it differently? probably. Was that goal ALL on him? No.

    Yet once people start counting up “bad goals” they often forget that there were circumstances leading up to them & simply say “bad goals = goalie’s fault period” & that may be neither entirely accurate nor enitrely fair.

  75. G Money says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    And I think your assessment is fair. That first goal should have been stopped by Talbot, but it’s also a shot that should never have happened in the first place. The Sekera-Nurse sequence was a tragicomedy, matched in hilarity only by Gazdic’s bizarre ‘backcheck’ on Scott in the Arizona game.

    I think it’s the ones where the defense does its job and the shot is weak or poor and it goes in anyway, that’s what has people’s shorts (rightly) in a knot.

  76. Pouzar says:

    Bob Arctor: What’s Cam Barker up to these days?

    Slovan KHL.

    22 pts in 28 games.

    2nd amongst D.

  77. Bank Shot says:

    Pouzar: I don’t remember it that way at all.

    The burden of proof is on you for this one.

    Here’s one from the Nurse selection thread in 2013-

    “Lukewarm on Nurse-As others have said on this board “Use your high picks on forwards, and make hay on defensive picks in the second round””

    When you repeat a rule of thumb or a mantra enough times it starts being accepted as the natural order of things and then you have biased yourself against making any decision to the contrary.

    If you keep repeating to yourself that drafting forwards in the first round is better than defencemen you get yourself to the point where the defensemen has to be heads and tails better than the forward in that specific slot in order to be chosen over the forward.

    I’m not arguing that generally forwards taken top three have been better. They have but you still need to weigh each case individually. Especially since the metrics used to judge players generally favour the forwards. Hemsky for example put up a lot of points over the years but its pretty debatable whether he has been a better player over his career than Hamhuis.

    That leads to generally never taking defencemen and your organisation having a dearth of good defenders. Basically what has happened in Edmonton.

    Since the Oilers started taking more defencemen in the first round Nurse, Klefbom things are getting better but the D still lags badly. Had the Oilers been more focused on this in the past they’d probably be in a better spot right now.

  78. Lowetide says:

    Defensemen are more prone to injury and less likely to show themselves. Often the top D selected won’t be the best of his generation. These are facts. No one ever said don’t take a D in the first round that I recall, unless someone resorted to hyperbole

  79. Bank Shot says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Well I’m hearing folks hanging the first goal on Saturday on Talbot, and it was a bad goal from his perspective. But before he got beaten Oilers had full control behind the icing line and two Kings forwards, Tanner Pearson & Marian Gaborik, beat up Sekera & Nurse & stole their lunch money & in about two seconds flat the puck went from an Oilers possession to a two-foot shot from the edge of the crease.Should Talbot have played it differently? probably. Was that goal ALL on him? No.

    Yet once people start counting up “bad goals” they often forget that there were circumstances leading up to them & simply say “bad goals = goalie’s fault period” & that may be neither entirely accurate nor enitrely fair.

    Let’s not forget that the Oilers themselves score “bad goals” nearly every games.

    Hall’s on the ice slow rolling backhand against Philly.
    Nurses long range clapper.
    Klefboms long range clapper from a bad angle.
    Purcell’s wrist shot from the point against LA.

    The list goes on and on.

    I’d say at least 50% of NHL goals can be called bad goals once you discount the bang-bang pretty plays.

    Lots of rebounds, screens, bad angle shots from the goal line. These goals get scored every game.

    Sure the goalies make mistakes that lead to these goals but the players factor in as well. The more players make these mistakes the harder the job is of the goalie. The Oilers make these mistakes frequently. They never player clean, boring hockey.

  80. sliderule says:

    My view on goalies is that there will be “bad goals”

    There will be also “great saves”

    I don’t give a shit about either .

    Please give the team a save percentage north of .915 and most nearly everybody will be happy.

  81. slopitch says:

    blainer: If Drai continues at this pace until CMD returns watch out for this team in the second half even with shitty goalering. IF we stay healthy that is.

    Agreed. The key is making it to Christmas without the season being over…

  82. Statsman says:

    G Money:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    And I think your assessment is fair.That first goal should have been stopped by Talbot, but it’s also a shot that should never have happened in the first place.The Sekera-Nurse sequence was a tragicomedy, matched in hilarity only by Gazdic’s bizarre ‘backcheck’ on Scott in the Arizona game.

    I think it’s the ones where the defense does its job and the shot is weak or poor and it goes in anyway, that’s what has people’s shorts (rightly) in a knot.

    Agree fully on your last paragraph. Errors obviously happen on every goal before the goalie has his chance, but isn’t it his job to stop the puck?

    I understand the premise of “high-danger scoring chance” and I don’t expect the goaler to stop all of those, but man, you have to come up with a save on the less dangerous chances.

    League-average goaltending would stop a lot of the hand-wringing prevalent in these parts.

  83. PhrankLee says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Tanner Pearson & Marian Gaborik, beat up Sekera & Nurse & stole their lunch money

    That’s exactly how I saw that goal as well. I did not fault Talbot for it.

    When we talk about shots a G should stop I believe they should stop all shots.

    What team gives up the puck and the crease and a shot in that situation?

    Crazy shit like that is not what NHL goalies are expecting. They cant cover every crazy angle every millisecond in preparation for a swift and utter deviation from known NHL hockey can they? Though better these last 4 games Sekera blew it and Nurse was mesmerized. It was a real low point. But I still didn’t hang that one on Talbot.

  84. TheOtherJohn says:

    Sorry for the late comment but Seth Jones is averaging 20:06 TOI a night or the 3rd most ice time on the Predators. More than Ellis, Ekholm and Jackman. He just turned 21 and is currently on pace for 5 g and 46a for 511 pts

    Not sure the definition used for 3rd pairing but that is a lot of ice time for a 3rd pairing guy

  85. AsiaOil says:

    Liked the Nurse before the draft – loved the Nurse after seeing a pre-draft interview with him, Jones, MacKinnon, Monahan and Drouin. He was clearly – and I mean CLEARLY – the alpha dog even in that elite group. Captain in waiting along with CMD – the new cluster will be ridiculous by the middle of next year.

    But how to get to next year? We need just average goalering but Talbot is struggling. I’m not surprised and this is the reason I didn’t want to go all in on him last summer. I think there is a good goalie there – but this is not the way to develop it. The Oilers actually did it right with Dubnyk and Khabi over a few seasons and this year should have been the time for Talbot to be a real 1B – not an unsupported 1. What to do – man that’s tough right now. A decent vet would be good but I still like all the young guys we have. Too bad we don’t have more flexibility – Toronto is destroying Bernier just like we did with Dubnyk and you will be able to get him for nothing soon enough. Send them some character in Ference and call it good 🙂 Hopefully Talbot can work his way through this and we can sign him at a reasonable price/term. Not ideal and pretty predictable this whole thing.

    As for the defense – need a vet bridge guy for this season and next. Too bad Tyutin looks like he’s done in Columbus but someone like that to get us from here to where Klef, Nurse and GR can take over.

  86. Pajamah says:

    Lowetide:
    Defensemen are more prone to injury and less likely to show themselves. Often the top D selected won’t be the best of his generation. These are facts. No one ever said don’t take a D in the first round thatI recall, unless someone resorted to hyperbole

    Pretty sure no one here has ever done that. Ever.

  87. G Money says:

    Bank Shot: If you keep repeating to yourself that drafting forwards in the first round is better than defencemen you get yourself to the point where the defensemen has to be heads and tails better than the forward in that specific slot in order to be chosen over the forward.

    It is worthwhile pointing out that when the Oilers finished last season (prior to the McDavid lottery) and were expecting to pick third (or fourth under the assumption somebody else would win), I wrote an article at NerdAlert specifically looking at my own prior work and the work of others regarding the issue of drafting D high, and the implications for drafting Hanifin.

    Nothing in that article can be construed as some sort of ‘don’t draft D high’ mantra, not at all.

    A few days later, I ran a poll (which is heavily biased towards Lowetide posters) as to which player the Oilers should take with that 3/4 pick, and the choice, overwhelmingly, was Noah Hanifin.

    So the idea that folks here somehow reflexively argue against drafting D high is false.

  88. frjohnk says:

    G Money: It is worthwhile pointing out that when the Oilers finished last season (prior to the McDavid lottery) and were expecting to pick third (or fourth under the assumption somebody else would win), I wrote an article at NerdAlert specifically looking at my own prior work and the work of others regarding the issue of drafting D high, and the implications for drafting Hanifin.

    Nothing in that article can be construed as some sort of ‘don’t draft D high’ mantra, not at all.

    A few days later, I ran a poll (which is heavily biased towards Lowetide posters) as to which player the Oilers should take with that 3/4 pick, and the choice, overwhelmingly, was Noah Hanifin.

    So the idea that folks here somehow reflexively argue against drafting D high is false.

    Before we won the lottery, the theme around here was
    “Just say Noah”

  89. PhrankLee says:

    frjohnk,

    I was Strome all the way.

  90. frjohnk says:

    PhrankLee:
    frjohnk,

    I was Strome all the way.

    You are definitely NOT helping.

    Get out 🙂

  91. G Money says:

    From the previous thread:

    Lackadaisical:
    Regarding what I mentioned earlier, and your response, I’m not sure if my meaning was properly or fully conveyed.Please allow me to attempt to rearticulate the idea to ensure clarity, and forgive my verbosity.If I simply didn’t fully understand your answer, I apologise for belaboring the point.

    As I understand it, you adjust the danger of the shot based on distance and the type of shot.What I’m proposing is perhaps additional context, in that certain defences will allow more of a certain shot/distance combo.A player may consistently not pinch properly for example, or the team deploys with a small quirk, allowing for a certain pattern to develop reflected in the dangerous shot type/distance opportunities that may follow.

    Additionally, a specific type/distance/zone combination may be more dangerous to certain goalies, reflecting for example if they’re challenging the puck well, hugging the post tight etc. Allowing for a relatively skewed number of goals, specific to them from that type/distance/zone.

    Would not utilizing/creating this sort of metric be a better frame of reference for establishing how well your team is deploying against and attacking those weaknesses?(Both in creating opportunities, by creating the situations, that create the shots that the defence is shown to be likely to give up, and situations the goalie has shown difficulty dealing with?). Or perhaps this metric would be useful in itself, allowing for another layer for evaluating goalies and D?

    I guess my TLDR/summary would be:
    Is type/distance enough without considering specific competition and their usual deficiencies?Isn’t it better to drive the data from a defensive, as opposed to offensive, perspective to better contextualize capitalization?

    Thanks for your time, I’m a big fan of your work.(I’m aspiring to become an analytics hobbyist and professional programmer.I’m “self-teaching” in analytics and python whenever I can make time, so you’re kind of a role model to me.Walking the path that I’m starting to set my feet to). I put this to you, as it seems at least a possible branch of your danger adjustment work, and I currently lack the skills to recognize if there is any validity to my supposition, while trusting your opinion and knowledge.

    As another aside, I wish I’d had more tact calling out Gregor RE crediting your work.The casual laziness and “apology” infuriated beyond what was likely appropriate.I apologize if that caused you any undue frustration or difficulty rectifying the situation yourself.

    Lt, if you happen upon this, I’ve always appreciated how well you’ve credited and commended all the great posters that make this blog(and through extension, your show) special.

    Goodnight!

    OK, I see what you’re getting at.

    So conceptually, let me separate two things: calculating the data vs using the data.

    When I do the danger calculations (as does anyone else when they are using a similar approach), I take the overall success rate for all teams for shots and use that as the basis for danger.

    I’m not sure you’d want to restrict your calculations to a narrower dataset than that, because the data is already extremely noisy, so high volume is important.

    Now that said, once you’ve got that data, your suggestion is a highly perceptiveone.

    I think looking for individual patterns of variances from that data – which is I believe what you’re suggesting when proposing to look at specific strengths and weaknesses of D and G – is exactly what every team should be using this data for!

    Right now, teams might scout a goalie by watching a few games and going with ‘shoot high’, or ‘aim five hole’ or whatever. But if you can look at an individual goalies save pattern and discover that he’s got a specific weakness against slapshots from the top of the circle … man, that’s gold, right?

    You’d have to be careful with that (it’s that data volume thing that will bite you, because when looking at slapshots from the top of the circle, even veteran goalies won’t have a lot of data, so the ‘weakness’ you’re seeing could just be spurious noise), but it’s worth considering as an exploit.

    Similar for d men, if you know that a specific pair tends to give up a ton of shots from a particular region on the ice, you should at least consider working some zone entry strategies that look to attack that particular area.

    You could use this data in reverse as well – if it shows that particular areas of the ice are a weakness for the G, a D, or a D pairing, review the tapes and see if you can address that weakness during practice.

    So to sum up – calculate the data on the widest basis possible, but then use that data at the individual level to find the weaknesses that help exploit the other teams weaknesses and help coach your own guys better.

    Does that capture it?

    (Re: your Python/data analysis pursuit. Have had a lot of fun, hope you do too! Make sure you get the ‘scipy’ stack – Numpy, SciPy, Matplotlib, and Pandas. The last one is absolutely invaluable for working with data, just amazingly powerful. I’m sure you have your own resources, but if you do get stuck, feel free to ask – we can bore all the other posters here with incomprehensible programming jibber jabber).

  92. khildahl says:

    G Money,

    Hey, I speak programmer just fine.

    The trick is to realize that every sentence translates to one of three possible statements:
    1. “Leave me alone, you idiot.”
    2. “I need more coffee.”
    3. “Leave me alone so I can go get more coffee, you idiot.”

  93. Lackadaisical says:

    G Money,

    Music! That’s exactly what I was thinking, but much more eloquently stated. Thanks for breaking it down, and pointing out the potential flaws.

    Also, will do, I appreciate the advice very much!

  94. Lackadaisical says:

    khildahl:
    G Money,

    Hey, I speak programmer just fine.

    The trick is to realize that every sentence translates to one of three possible statements: 1.“Leave me alone, you idiot.” 2.“I need more coffee.” 3.“Leave me alone so I can go get more coffee, you idiot.”

    Bahahaha!

    You’re going to cause me to spit coffee all over my shirt, you idiot! 😀

  95. Woodguy says:

    AsiaOil,

    Did you change your sn to DarkOil back then?

  96. PhrankLee says:

    frjohnk: PhrankLee:
    frjohnk,
    I was Strome all the way.
    You are definitely NOT helping.
    Get out

    There was a large Hanifin contingent. But I recall Marner being the apple consensus of the collective blog eye at the time.

    I wanted someone bigger and stronger.

    Then Bill Daly changed our lives forever.

    Then that guy got hurt and all our tears fall on Talbot.

  97. Dominoiler says:

    Lowetide:
    Defensemen are more prone to injury and less likely to show themselves. Often the top D selected won’t be the best of his generation. These are facts. No one ever said don’t take a D in the first round thatI recall, unless someone resorted to hyperbole

    I think this whole mantra / idea came up years ago after the Carolina GM made a statement about never wanting to take a dman in the first round, saying it was unwise.. Then many took the ball and ran w it, saying you can trade a quicker developing, higher value asset in the forward for D when you need it..

    Kinda funny how this runs alongside the resistance against trading any of the big name, not Mcdavid, forwards.. Laughable, IMO.. Carolina took hanifan because it was the right play, so can we just throw out this garbage idea and go back to the mantra of balance?!..

  98. Bank Shot says:

    G Money: It is worthwhile pointing out that when the Oilers finished last season (prior to the McDavid lottery) and were expecting to pick third (or fourth under the assumption somebody else would win), I wrote an article at NerdAlert specifically looking at my own prior work and the work of others regarding the issue of drafting D high, and the implications for drafting Hanifin.

    Nothing in that article can be construed as some sort of ‘don’t draft D high’ mantra, not at all.

    A few days later, I ran a poll (which is heavily biased towards Lowetide posters) as to which player the Oilers should take with that 3/4 pick, and the choice, overwhelmingly, was Noah Hanifin.

    So the idea that folks here somehow reflexively argue against drafting D high is false.

    Public opinion has definitely swung over the years as we have been taking forwards first overall for years and haven’t been getting anywhere. Plus the now dire need for D. There was definitely more resistance to Nurse.

    Anyway I didn’t say everyone. Just that there was a vocal group.

    That will probably change when someone comes out with a proven and accurate way to gauge the value of defensemen with statistics.

    Right now we have some proxies for offence, some for defence, but nothing that ties them together and nothing that allows to compare the contributions of a D-man to that of a forward.

  99. Gret99zky says:

    Goalies cannot be expected to stop all the shots.

    Just like defensemen cannot be expected to prevent all shots from getting through.

    The defensemen’s job is to let the shot happen from the least dangerous area, so that the goalie has a high percentage chance at making the save.

    Forcing the shot to come from the outside (along the boards) is a good play for dmen. Allowing shots to come from the slot is not.

    On a two on one, the dman takes the pass (and the open guy) the goalie takes the shooter (the guy with the puck).

    Shots from the point, from just over the blue (unscreened) should all be stopped my NHL quality goalies. As should shots coming from behind the goal line. (Talbot)

    Shots are going to come. It’s the defenders job to make sure they happen from low percentage scoring areas (high percentage save areas).

  100. G Money says:

    Bank Shot: That will probably change when someone comes out with a proven and accurate way to gauge the value of defensemen with statistics.

    Heh heh.

    I chuckle, because precisely that debate has been raging in the background here for quite a long time, and more intensely of late as we deal with our own D conundrums (like: “why hasn’t fancystats darling Mark Fayne been … you know … better?”).

  101. G Money says:

    khildahl,

    Precisely!

    I knew there were other programmers, but they tend to lurk a bit.

  102. Dominoiler says:

    su_dhillon: WG, you’re still my boy but somebody needs to put you in the bathroom. Maybe for your own good
    Sukh

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQpFbfaILzY

    Hahaha, hilarious… Yeah, yeah, get him in the bathroom.. You too, bookie, get in the fuckin bathroom..

  103. Pouzar says:

    F6ckin Baidu. Damnit

  104. Woodguy says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Sorry for the late comment but Seth Jones is averaging 20:06 TOI a night or the 3rd most ice time on the Predators. More than Ellis, Ekholm and Jackman. He just turned 21 and is currently on pace for 5 g and 46a for 511 pts

    Not sure the definition used for 3rd pairing but that is a lot of ice time for a 3rd pairing guy

    First off, I love Jones and none of this is meant to be derogatory towards him. He’d be the best RHD on the Oilers the second he stepped on the ice.

    That being said, he does play on the 3rd pair in NSH.

    We can see he’s 3rd pairing via 5v5 TOI/gm and who he’s playing with, and against.

    5v5 TOI/60
    NSH Dmen 5v5 TOI/60 via BTN:
    ROMANJOSI 18.33
    SHEAWEBER 18.03
    MATTIASEKHOLM 16.15
    RYANELLIS 15.98
    SETHJONES 15.09
    BARRETJACKMAN 13.27

    Who he’s playing against
    NSH Dmen CorsiRelQC:
    SHEAWEBER 2.3
    ROMANJOSI 2.245
    RYANELLIS 0.443
    MATTIASEKHOLM 0.378
    SETHJONES -0.639
    BARRETJACKMAN -0.846

    Who he’s playing with.
    Seth Jones TOI D partners as per stat.hockeyanalysis.com

    Jones total 5v5 TOI 237min
    w/ Jackman 178min
    w/ Ekholm 33:46
    w/ Ellis 9:57
    w/ Josi 9:34
    w/ Weber 5:21

    So, he’s 5/6 in 5v5 TOI/60

    He’s has almost the same RelCOrQC as the 6th Dman Jackman

    He’s played 75% of his 5v5 TOI w/ 6th Dman Jackman.

    Its pretty clear he’s 3rd pairing.

    Where I think you are being confused is via the special teams TOI..

    Jones PK’s, while Ellis doesn’t.

    Here’s NSH’s 4v5 TOI/60:

    SHEAWEBER 2.67
    ROMANJOSI 2.47
    SETHJONES 1.97
    BARRETJACKMAN 1.54
    MATTIASEKHOLM 1.46
    RYANELLIS 0.96

    Jones plays the PP, while Ekholm and Jackman don’t

    Here’s NSH’s 5v4 TOI/60
    ROMANJOSI 2.74
    SHEAWEBER 2.71
    SETHJONES 2.46
    RYANELLIS 2.27
    MATTIASEKHOLM 0.32
    BARRETJACKMAN 0.01

    Since Jones plays all 3 disciplines his overall TOI/gm will be higher than Ellis, Ekholm and Jackman’s

    So Jones is a 3rd pairing Dman on NSH.

    He’s just probably the best 3rd pairing Dman in the NHL.

  105. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar:
    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=4&id=875830&lang=en

    The no comment on the incident is very telling.

    Connor McHighRoad

    That’s a special young man.

  106. 4th_Line_Plug says:

    http://thehockeywriters.com/report-avalanche-taking-calls-on-semyon-varlamov/

    For fun what would an Oilers-Avalanche deal look like for the Oilers to get Varlamov, Duchene, Barrie? Eberle, 2016 first, Talbot, Ference, and Fayne?

  107. Statsman says:

    Gret99zky:
    Goalies cannot be expected to stop all the shots.

    Just like defensemen cannot be expected to prevent all shots from getting through.

    The defensemen’s job is to let the shot happen from the least dangerous area, so that the goalie has a high percentage chance at making the save.

    Forcing the shot to come from the outside (along the boards) is a good play for dmen.Allowing shots to come from the slot is not.

    On a two on one, the dman takes the pass (and the open guy) the goalie takes the shooter (the guy with the puck).

    Shots from the point, from just over the blue (unscreened) should all be stopped my NHL quality goalies.As should shots coming from behind the goal line. (Talbot)

    Shots are going to come.It’s the defenders job to make sure they happen from low percentage scoring areas (high percentage save areas).

    This is exactly right. The only part we are missing right now is the goalie’s stopping the easier ones.

    From a psychological standpoint, letting in a stinker or misplaying the puck and giving the opponent an easy one is very demoralizing to the rest of the team…you can just see it on the bench when a stoppable puck goes in.

    On a positive note, it seems like this year’s version of the team responds much better when the goaler lets in a bad one. In the past, it would be simply “game over”.

  108. Woodguy says:

    PhrankLee: There was a large Hanifin contingent. But I recall Marner being the apple consensus of the collective blog eye at the time.

    I wanted someone bigger and stronger.

    Then Bill Daly changed our lives forever.

    Then that guy got hurt and all our tears fall on Talbot.

    I was a Hanafin guy and it wasn’t close.

    The consensus among the scouts was that there were 2 elite talents and Eichel probably goes #1 in every draft before 2015 all the way back to Crosby’s draft.

    Then there was a group of very good players below them who might go #1 in many drafts as well.

    There were 3 Elite groups.

    Group 1 – McDavid

    Group 2 – Eichel

    Group 3- Hanifin, Marner, Strome.

    Oiler’s major probability was to pick 3rd.

    Out of those 3 players, the type the Oilers didn’t already have was Hanifin.

    High end skater with a big big brain and offense.

    As good as Marner and Strome are, this team is more bereft of multi-tool Dmen who are ++ skaters than anything else and in my mind that trumped all in that group.

    Godot and I were the most vocal Hanfin guys.

    I’m sure Bank Shot is positive I wanted Crouse.

  109. Woodguy says:

    4th_Line_Plug:
    http://thehockeywriters.com/report-avalanche-taking-calls-on-semyon-varlamov/

    For fun what would an Oilers-Avalanche deal look like for the Oilers to get Varlamov, Duchene, Barrie? Eberle, 2016 first, Talbot, Ference, and Fayne?

    You;d need Omark and a 2nd to top it off.

  110. LMHF#1 says:

    Gret99zky:

    On a two on one, the dman takes the pass (and the open guy) the goalie takes the shooter (the guy with the puck).

    Good stuff in the post, but I always preferred a slightly different approach to 2-on-1s. The very best always seemed to swing over a little closer to the shooter if the 2-on-1 happens on or before zone entry. From here you get one shot (minimum) at the puck and can force a bad pass that will either miss or be picked off a bunch. You have to be a good skater to get back into “take the pass” position from here, but the good ones always could.

    Applied this to my game after seeing the pros do it and it made a huge difference in how the attacking forwards could approach the 2-on-1.

  111. Woodguy says:

    Pajamah: I blame Bookje.

    Fuck that guy.

  112. PhrankLee says:

    Woodguy: There were 3 Elite groups.
    Group 1 – McDavid
    Group 2 – Eichel
    Group 3- Hanifin, Marner, Strome.

    It’s funny too because we hardly discussed Eichel or McDavid. At least in terms of becoming Oilers.

    At least I was sad sack enough to feel that we would never get a lottery sniff for another 15 yrs.

  113. frjohnk says:

    PhrankLee: It’s funny too because we hardly discussed Eichel or McDavid. At least in terms of becoming Oilers.

    At least I was sad sack enough to feel that we would never get a lottery sniff for another 15 yrs.

    We were not going to pick 2nd. And Eichel was the consensus number 2.

    It was either 1st,3rd or 4th that…..

    Ah Fuck it.

    We got McDavid.

    Woot!!!!!!!!

  114. jake70 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Well I’m hearing folks hanging the first goal on Saturday on Talbot, and it was a bad goal from his perspective. But before he got beaten Oilers had full control behind the icing line and two Kings forwards, Tanner Pearson & Marian Gaborik, beat up Sekera & Nurse & stole their lunch money & in about two seconds flat the puck went from an Oilers possession to a two-foot shot from the edge of the crease.Should Talbot have played it differently? probably. Was that goal ALL on him? No.

    Yet once people start counting up “bad goals” they often forget that there were circumstances leading up to them & simply say “bad goals = goalie’s fault period” & that may be neither entirely accurate nor enitrely fair.

    The “pass” from Eberle to Sekera started that specific sequence, then he goes for a skate near the blue line , must have been a hottie sitting near there, Lander must have noticed her too, he was already out there. What a CF of a sequence. They all get the blame on that one.

  115. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: Fuck that guy.

    Where is that guy?

    I think he may have actually, you know, fucked right off!

    Did the blog put him on LTIR? Lowetide Insulted Reserve?

  116. Dominoiler says:

    Secondary verification, Rutherford was the originator of the “don’t draft D in the first round” thread of reasoning.. Which brings us to the, also verified, conclusion that this is a (insert stronger conclusion that doesn’t resort to shallow name calling) stupid decision..

    http://thehockeywriters.com/changing-ways-is-defense-the-future-in-carolina/

  117. stush18 says:

    Woodguy,

    I’d like to say I was very pro hanifin As well. To the point I thought the groupings were

    1-mcdavid, eichel
    2-hanifin
    3-strome, marner

    I was only just starting reading posting here at the nurse draft. But I was very pro monahan/ristolainen. Lots of people were knocking monahan because of his skating. Give me high hockey sense and poor skating any day.

    So far ristolainen looks like the better option than nurse, although it’s early. I still would prefer him, but am perfectly content with nurse.

  118. oilswell says:

    G Money:
    People confuse this to mean that if Bobby Mac has a winger ranked #5 and defenseman ranked #6, and your team is choc-a-bloc with wingers and desperately need defensemen, then you should still take the #5 ranked winger ahead of the #6 ranked defenseman because ‘BPA

    I can’t agree with this, primarily because it’s illogical and, basically, BPA apologetics.

    If MacKenzie generated a total order player ranking, BPA says you always choose the better player, and the #1 is better than #2 and #7 is better than #8. Full stop. It’s completely clear by the name “Best Player Available”. And by memory its extremely likely that the Oilers selected due to need for Nurse and Draisaitl.

    Because BPA as a selection heuristic is hopelessly naive.

    It doesn’t account for difficulty in generating a useful total order, particularly after the middle of round one.

    It is founded on the assumption that players are completely liquid assets with an ideal open market. Both assumptions are wrong.

    It doesn’t account for the draft being a game played by multiple teams. Some players highly ranked by your team will be ranked lower by others and you can pick them up with a later pick. Some teams will trade up for a player with lower value.

    It doesn’t account for the fact that value to an organization is not equal to BPA due to myriad reasons.

    It doesn’t consider risk, even a little.

    BPA is just an heuristic that is seductive by its simplicity. Honestly I wish/hope we can move past it. Your effort to cram subtlety into it by dancing around definitions is counter productive. Jmo.

  119. G Money says:

    oilswell,

    Hmmm, perhaps you missed the sentence immediately after the part you quoted? The sentence was: “That’s wrong.”

    The whole point of my post was to highlight exactly some of the points you just made, which is that BPA is a general purpose statement, but must be treated as a rule of thumb rather than as some sort of gospel truth.

    People who apply BPA blindly or as some sort of ironclad rule (and there are some of those purists out there) will do themselves a disservice.

    That said, if your point is that BPA has no value as a point of principle in drafting, then I cannot agree with you.

    I do think that many teams, and the Oilers are certainly one to be included in that, have botched their drafts precisely because they felt there was so much nuance, individual opinion, and pomp and circumstance to be applied to the decision making process for drafting that they overthought themselves into a tizzy and went out and made a terrible pick. Or a sequence of terrible picks. Or entire years worth of terrible picks.

    In those cases, if they’d asked themselves “regardless of need, is there a clear BPA right now?”, they would have saved themselves (and by extension, us fans) a whole lot of heartache.

  120. oilswell says:

    G Money:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    I think it’s the ones where the defense does its job and the shot is weak or poor and it goes in anyway, that’s what has people’s shorts (rightly) in a knot.

    I fail to see how the play of the rest of the team in any way makes bad goaltending any better. If Talbot let in a bad goal it remains bad even if there is a chain of events that, if altered, could have prevented the shot.

    By the way, for any goal against it is possible to find a way to prevent the shot. I get Bruce’s fine point but I feel justified blaming the goalie on a bad goal. The team in front generates / allows 25-35 shots per game, it is the goalies job to stop the easiest ones, no matter their genesis.

  121. speeds says:

    oilswell:

    It doesn’t consider risk, even a little.

    BPA is just an heuristic that is seductive by its simplicity. Honestly I wish/hope we can move past it.Your effort to cram subtlety into it by dancing around definitions is counter productive. Jmo.

    I think risk is built into BPA by most, but how it is quantified, if it is, is up for debate.

    I don’t think people use it rigidly without consideration of many factors, including organizational depth, scarcity, organizational strength in developing, perceived rating of the player, etc.

  122. godot10 says:

    There was a lot less resistance to the idea of Hanifin last year. Far less than the idea of Ekblad. (The majority seemed to want a centre). And far far less than the idea of Nurse. The majority wanted the big Russian winger.

    The prolonged suckitude of the defense has softened the mainstream oilogosphere opinion that one should never draft defensemen if there is a remotely comparable forward to draft.

    There is as little risk drafting a defensemen if they are big with superior passing and skating skills as drafting a centre. The mistakes on high D are made by looking at boxcars and size alone.

  123. godot10 says:

    Re: Goaltenders and everything else

    Performance increases with stress, until it falls of a cliff.

    And then there is a hysteresis effect to regain performance, once elevated stress levels return to normal.

  124. Centre of attention says:

    Schultz called his injury a “bulged disk” but felt like he was “close to returning”

    Something tells me those two statements don’t belong in the same sentence.

  125. Snowman says:

    I would like to add that, in the case of Nurse and Drai, the idea of drafting BPA and drafting for need are not mutually exclusive. The Oilers very well could have had both as their BPA on their internal draft lists and obviously both still met a need.

    I see no reason to assume the Oilers thought Bennett was a better player than Drai or that the big Russian was a better player than Nurse. That’s adding an after the fact assumption to the narrative that the Oilers draft for need and not BPA. I’m not sure there was a significant difference in skill between the players in either case to make a compelling argument that the Oilers didn’t draft their BPA.

  126. Gerta Rauss says:

    TMac Monday audio

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/podcastplayer.htm?pid=98&iid=52744


    -we’re trying to keep the sick guys away from the healthy guys

    -thought Purcell played his best game of the year for us in LA

    Speaks at length about Talbot and how he was great in preseason and the first 6 or 7 games, but things “aren’t going the way he would like right now”. Mentioned they see him a a long term solution in goal.

  127. PhrankLee says:

    Gerta Rauss: -thought Purcell played his best game of the year for us in LA

    That was my exact feeling as well.

    That may have been the best game I have seen Purcell play as an Oiler.

  128. hunter1909 says:

    I’d personally keep SuperDave away from the press until he’s ready to play hockey.

    18 year olds don’t need that kind of stress on their injured shoulders.

    Re Nurse: Since defencemen tend to get injured more often and therefore bust more, it makes sense to keep them far away from the NHL until they’re at least 21 years old. Larry Robinson didn’t get a game until he was 21, and it certainly didn’t hurt anyone.

    Naturally Oilers can’t wait for Christmas to open their presents.

  129. hunter1909 says:

    It might be me, but Isn’t it more depressing when the team brings in veteran defencemen who turn out to play badly, when they could be playing young drafted in house defencemen, who, despite making mistakes can improve with time?

    Overall, the Oilers are a lot better than in previous seasons. I’m saying this despite not watching a whole lot of them play since SuperDave went down.

    SuperDave. That’s going to be his nickname, folks.

  130. Snowman says:

    hunter1909,

    That timeline for high drafted dmen doesn’t make sense. It just doesn’t. These are all dman drafted high in the first round of their respective drafts back to 2011 and the ages they first played a significant number of games in the NHL.

    Noah Hanifin- 18 years old in the NHL
    Ekblad-18 years old in the NHL
    Seth Jones-19 in the NHL
    Darnell Nurse – 20 in the NHL
    Ristolainen- 19 in the NHL
    Ryan Murray- 20 in the NHL
    Jacob Trouba-20 in the NHL
    Morgan Reilly-20 in the NHL
    Ollie Maata- 20 in the NHL
    Cody Ceci-20 in the NHL
    Dougie Hamilton-19 in the NHL
    Nathan Beileau- 21 In the NHL
    Adam Larsson- 19 in the NHL

    Those are almost all pretty good D….

  131. GCW_69 says:

    godot10:
    There was a lot less resistance to the idea of Hanifin last year.Far less than the idea of Ekblad. (The majority seemed to want a centre).And far far less than the idea of Nurse.The majority wanted the big Russian winger.

    The prolonged suckitude of the defense has softened the mainstream oilogosphere opinion that one should never draft defensemen if there is a remotely comparable forward to draft.

    There is as little risk drafting a defensemen if they are big with superior passing and skating skills as drafting a centre. The mistakes on high D are made by looking at boxcars and size alone.

    Yes, the Oilers complete ineptitude in procuring defensemen any other way has brought us back to drafting them.

  132. hunter1909 says:

    Snowman:
    hunter1909,

    That timeline for high drafted dmen doesn’t make sense. It just doesn’t. These are all dman drafted high in the first round of their respective drafts back to 2011 and the ages they first played a significant number of games in the NHL.

    Noah Hanifin- 18 years old in the NHL
    Ekblad-18 years old in the NHL
    Seth Jones-19 in the NHL
    Darnell Nurse – 20 in the NHL
    Ristolainen- 19 in the NHL
    Ryan Murray- 20 in the NHL
    Jacob Trouba-20 in the NHL
    Morgan Reilly-20 in the NHL
    Ollie Maata- 20 in the NHL
    Cody Ceci-20 in the NHL
    Dougie Hamilton-19 in the NHL
    Nathan Beileau- 21 In the NHL
    Adam Larsson- 19 in the NHL

    Those are almost all pretty good D….

    Some of these are having good/bad seasons. Hugely inconsistent in some cases. Keep them down longer and by the time they debut in the NHL they’re physically stronger/more durable, and understand enough nuances of the professional game to allow them time to concentrate on the finer points of the NHL game.

    Luke Shenn had a big rookie season, then saw his trajectory plummet. Justin Schultz…

  133. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ex- Oilers D and AC Steve Smith coaching Noah Hanifin

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=786476

    Not sure if that’s a good thing or not, but it sounds like the Canes are happy with the pick.

  134. Bag of Pucks says:

    hunter1909:
    Luke Shenn had a big rookie season, then saw his trajectory plummet. Justin Schultz…

    Justin Schultz followed by an ellipsis. Never has an entire career been better summed up by simple punctuation marks.

    This could be a thing…

    Rob Schremp?
    #TheGreatOne
    Connor McDavid!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  135. oilswell says:

    G Money: That said, if your point is that BPA has no value as a point of principle in drafting, then I cannot agree with you.

    I did see you said it was wrong. You went on to try to fix BPA by proposing a non-standard definition. I disagreed with this approach and suggest that we purposefully avoid BPA because of it’s too-brutal simplification that distracts conversation around the other terms. I think that’s a fair reading of our conversation.

    So, no I would not suggest BPA doesn’t have an underlying principle that is a core foundation: optimality. It underlies decision theory and game theory. I would suggest that the most common “best player” notions sets the optimality criteria conversation on the wrong foot. Again, you agree, but I don’t feel a need to rescue BPA terminology because I think there’s better options. Maximizing expected value, for example, but we’ve barely moved the needle in exploring the value dimension space since HF boards agreed to split player ratings into two dimensions. I guess I’m growing impatient.

  136. oilswell says:

    speeds: I don’t think people use it rigidly without consideration of many factors, including organizational depth, scarcity, organizational strength in developing, perceived rating of the player, etc.

    So match to organization is included in “best player”?

    How do you square that away with the complaint “don’t draft for need, draft BPA”? Isn’t your experience that “BPA” almost always is used to contrast drafting for need?

    Even if we agree that all those multiple factors you suggest are part of the selection process, surely organizational depth, scarcity, and organizational strength all have nothing to do with the PLAYER. So why bother distinguishing the “player” dimension of all the multiple factors and just call it “best fit” or similar?

  137. oilswell says:

    Lowetide:
    Defensemen are more prone to injury and less likely to show themselves. Often the top D selected won’t be the best of his generation. These are facts. No one ever said don’t take a D in the first round thatI recall, unless someone resorted to hyperbole

    Might he have been misremembering “don’t take a goalie in the 1st round?”

  138. Lowetide says:

    oilswell: Might he have been misremembering “don’t take a goalie in the 1st round?”

    Maybe, but even with that Carey Price.

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