OILERS NO. 3 PROSPECT (winter 2015): DARNELL NURSE

by Lowetide

Darnell Nurse brings a unique skill set to every game he plays. A throwback defender who adjusts well to the modern game because of excellent speed and mobility, his size and rugged style are destined to make him a favorite in Edmonton for years.

PREVIOUSLY NO. 3 ON THE WINTER LIST

  • December 2005: G Devan Dubnyk
  • December 2006: C Marc-Antoine Pouliot
  • December 2007: D Tom Gilbert
  • December 2008: D Theo Peckham
  • December 2009: C Riley Nash
  • December 2010: L Magnus Paajarvi
  • December 2011: D Oscar Klefbom
  • December 2012: D Oscar Klefbom
  • December 2013: C Marco Roy
  • December 2014: D Oscar Klefbom

Some very nice NHL players over the last decade have been ranked in this range. Devan Dubnyk and Tom Gilbert have enjoyed careers of significant length with trunks of memories still to come. I’m tempted to say Klefbom (or Nurse) will be the best of this group but all kinds of things can impact the future. Lots of heartbreak here—Pouliot, Peckham, Paajarvi—but some effective players too.

WHAT THEY SAID ON DRAFT DAY

nurse common

  • Kyle Woodlief — USA Today: is the most naturally physical defender available. He made good strides in his offensive game and has a heavy shot that is an asset on the power play. He likes to dish out punishment along the walls and easily separates his check from the puck. Nurse also scores off the charts in both his character and intelligence levels, and at a gangly 6-5, already has the footwork of a much smaller man.
  • Corey Pronman — Hockey Prospectus: Nurse had a considerable amount of hype at the beginning of the season, and he has exceeded all expectations. He is a gifted physical player who has all the natural tools a scout could want from a defenseman. He has slowly begun to emerge as a two-way player, but his value comes from his high-end work in his own end. Nurse is a tall defender with an aggressive edge and the strength to consistently push his checks off pucks. He has above-average mobility, especially considering his larger size.
  • OHL PROSPECTS: Nurse is definitely my top prospect available from the OHL. The thing I like most about Nurse is how much he improved this season from the last. You need to look at that progression and think about just how good he could be, if he continues to tap into his athletic bloodlines (father was a CFL player), and continues to improve. He’s certainly a potential dynamo at both ends of the ice. His size (6’5, pushing 200lbs), makes him an asset in the defensive end. As does his skating ability. He’s incredibly difficult to get around and he’s physical enough to intimidate. As he gets stronger, I expect his physical game to become more consistent and more effective. He certainly has the mentality to be a bruiser.
  • Craig MacTavish: “He gives us an element we’re sorely lacking. He’s a guy who, over time, if we’re patient with him, is going to provide us with toughness. He’s a guy that will ride shotgun for a lot of our first overall picks and our skilled players for a lot of years. But our overriding draft philosophy is still to draft the player who is going to have the greatest impact on our team over time.  Based on that philosophy, I still thought Darnell was the player who is going to have the greatest impact on our team.”

PRE-DRAFT RANKINGS

  • BOB MCKENZIE, TSN: NO. 9
  • RED LINE REPORT: NO. 8
  • CRAIG BUTTON: NO. 8
  • ISS: NO. 6

nurse capture

DARNELL NURSE TOP 20 RANKINGS

  • Summer 2013: No. 1
  • Winter 2013: No. 1
  • Summer 2014: No. 2
  • Winter 2014: No. 2
  • Summer 2015: No. 3
  • Winter 2015: No. 3
  • SSM GM Kyle Dubas, about 2013-14: “People get obsessed with Darnell’s plus/minus (plus-1, down from plus-15 the year prior), but his underlying numbers are excellent. Relative to the competition he plays [against], he does extremely well. Far greater than 50 percent of the time, the puck is not in our end. To me, it doesn’t get much bigger than that. If we’re taking the other team’s best players and forcing them to play in their end and away from the puck, that’s a successful day. The quality of competition he’s faced is higher than anyone else in our league, especially among defencemen.” Source

nurse condors

2015-16

  • Gerry Fleming: “If I was recommending a guy (for recall), I’d have said Darnell. He has been our most complete player. He’s moving the puck more quickly (and making fewer long rushes with it). He’s making good reads.” Source
  • Brad MacPherson: The former CHL players that are the best statistical comparables for Nurse are Pietrangelo, Phaneuf, Barker, Staal and Seabrook. Source
  • Corey Pronman on Nurse and Reinhart: “There’s a small gap (between the two) I like Nurse a lot, he edges Reinhart in my opinion. There’s also an age difference between the two—Reinhart has already played one year of pro—I think they’re similar in terms of proximity to the NHL, they’re both on the bubble. I think Nurse has a little more of a dynamic element to his game. Nurse’s skating is a little bit better and they both project as good defensive players, I think Nurse can bring a little more offense to the NHL.”

  • Lowetide: I know you’re sick of this (your DMs and emails tell me so) but for me there’s no reason for the Oilers to delay the recall of Darnell Nurse. He was quality in the spring during the AHL playoffs and he’s quality now. Call him up, insert him in the lineup. If he’s poor, the Oilers can send him down after a few games. I’ve maintained all along that he is one of the six best defensive options and he should be here now. After watching last night’s game, I can’t imagine anyone disagrees. At the very least they can start getting him that NHL experience he’s going to need in order to start pushing the river at the highest level. The excuse of Griffin Reinhart also needing those initial NHL minutes to have the game slow down for him don’t apply—Reinhart is injured. Call up Darnell Nurse. It’s the right thing to do. Source
  • Hidden Darts: Anyway, Nurse is a man amongst boys. Wow. Great wheels. Real calm. Source
  • David Staples, Cult of HockeyWhile the rest of the Bakersfield d-men, save for big, steady David Musil, got eaten alive this game, Nurse did not. Another strong game where he used his size and speed to good advantage.  Source
  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey: Then there’s the ridiculous athletic prowess that manifested itself in at least two dazzling spinaramas, one a somewhat dangerous but perfectly-executed 360 coming out of his own end, the other a thrust into the low shot after a fine Draisaitl feed that ended with a spinning backhand that seriously tested McCollum. He didn’t look like a man who intends to stay in the AHL for long, even as games like tonight’s will do him a world of good. Source

nurse draisaitl capture

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.15—No. 2 among defensemen
  • 5×4 points per 60: 39.13—No. 1 among defensemen (MAY not stay that high)
  • Qual Comp: No. 9 among D
  • Qual Team: No. 1 among D
  • Corsi Rel: -8.1 (No. 7 among D)
  • Corsi for % 5×5: 48.5 (No. 4 among D)
  • Zone Start: 46.2
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 12/8.3
  • Boxcars: 9GP, 1-3-4 (on pace for 73GP, 8-24-32)

This is a nice player card, Darnell Nurse should have a fine rookie year. I really like his game and he appears to be refining things to reduce the chaos—suggesting he’s highly coachable. Let’s not go crazy, but this is a substantial prospect. His CorsiRel has taken a dip in recent days, as more time (and more defensive zone starts) have him playing tougher minutes. It’s beyond what we should consider ideal, but the Oilers don’t have a better option.

NURSE WOWY

nurse wowy

Nurse is more effective away from Sekera (49.3 versus 48.2) but that’s as discussed—a move up the depth chart. We should assume the possession numbers will be less attractive if Nurse stays in his current role (over 20 minutes in three of his last five games). I’m a big fan of Nurse and his future, but that might be a little too much to expect for his rookie season in pro hockey.

nurse capture1

THE FUTURE

Darnell Nurse is a perfect fit for what Edmonton needs. The Blue Bullet link above rings true, albeit we can’t be sure which comp is the best fit. An outstanding draft pick, finished off a significant junior career in a fashion somewhat similar to Jordan Eberle, and now begins his pro career by walking the streets of Bakersfield for about five minutes, before leaving on a jet plane. Fabulous future. Do NOT be disappointed if he spends more time in the AHL this season. Edmonton has real issues at the position and they need to make sure there’s a reasonable transition from junior to the NHL.

THE 2013 DRAFT

  • Darnell Nurse, No. 7 overall. A quality prospect who has delivered in the early days of his pro career. Has a range of skills and has had good-to-great games already the NHL season. No. 3 prospect, Winter 2015.
  • Marco Roy, No. 59 overall. Didn’t earn an NHL deal, signed to a minor league contract and played early days in the ECHL. Recalled to the AHL, we’ll see how things go.
  • Bogdan Yakimov, No. 83 overall. Mammoth Russian progressing, although he’s a little shy offensively this season in the AHL so far. A candidate for the Winter top 20.
  • Anton Slepyshev, No. 88 overall. Slick Russian winger impressed in camp and won an NHL job. Currently in the minors, but he’s bona fine. Inside the Winter top 20.
  • Jackson Houck, No. 94 overall. Unsigned, playing in junior. No longer in the organization.
  • Kyle Platzer, No. 96 overall. New pro playing well in Bakersfield, good results. A candidate for the Winter top 20.
  • Aidan Muir, No. 113 overall. College winger, not scoring. A candidate for the Winter top 20.
  • Evan Campbell, No. 128 overall. College winger with decent results so far this year. A candidate for the Winter top 20.
  • Ben Betker, No. 158 overall. First year pro in the ECHL currently. Big, strong and good speed. A project. A candidate for the Winter top 20.
  • Greg Chase, No. 188 overall. Turned pro but was sent to the ECHL. Performed well there and was recently called to the AHL. Talented player, but no draft pedigree. A candidate for the Winter top 20.
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oilswell

Lowetide:
Defensemen are more prone to injury and less likely to show themselves. Often the top D selected won’t be the best of his generation. These are facts. No one ever said don’t take a D in the first round thatI recall, unless someone resorted to hyperbole

Might he have been misremembering “don’t take a goalie in the 1st round?”

oilswell

speeds: I don’t think people use it rigidly without consideration of many factors, including organizational depth, scarcity, organizational strength in developing, perceived rating of the player, etc.

So match to organization is included in “best player”?

How do you square that away with the complaint “don’t draft for need, draft BPA”? Isn’t your experience that “BPA” almost always is used to contrast drafting for need?

Even if we agree that all those multiple factors you suggest are part of the selection process, surely organizational depth, scarcity, and organizational strength all have nothing to do with the PLAYER. So why bother distinguishing the “player” dimension of all the multiple factors and just call it “best fit” or similar?

oilswell

G Money: That said, if your point is that BPA has no value as a point of principle in drafting, then I cannot agree with you.

I did see you said it was wrong. You went on to try to fix BPA by proposing a non-standard definition. I disagreed with this approach and suggest that we purposefully avoid BPA because of it’s too-brutal simplification that distracts conversation around the other terms. I think that’s a fair reading of our conversation.

So, no I would not suggest BPA doesn’t have an underlying principle that is a core foundation: optimality. It underlies decision theory and game theory. I would suggest that the most common “best player” notions sets the optimality criteria conversation on the wrong foot. Again, you agree, but I don’t feel a need to rescue BPA terminology because I think there’s better options. Maximizing expected value, for example, but we’ve barely moved the needle in exploring the value dimension space since HF boards agreed to split player ratings into two dimensions. I guess I’m growing impatient.

Bag of Pucks

hunter1909:
Luke Shenn had a big rookie season, then saw his trajectory plummet. Justin Schultz…

Justin Schultz followed by an ellipsis. Never has an entire career been better summed up by simple punctuation marks.

This could be a thing…

Rob Schremp?
#TheGreatOne
Connor McDavid!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bag of Pucks

Ex- Oilers D and AC Steve Smith coaching Noah Hanifin

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=786476

Not sure if that’s a good thing or not, but it sounds like the Canes are happy with the pick.

hunter1909

Snowman:
hunter1909,

That timeline for high drafted dmen doesn’t make sense. It just doesn’t. These are all dman drafted high in the first round of their respective drafts back to 2011 and the ages they first played a significant number of games in the NHL.

Noah Hanifin- 18 years old in the NHL
Ekblad-18 years old in the NHL
Seth Jones-19 in the NHL
Darnell Nurse – 20 in the NHL
Ristolainen- 19 in the NHL
Ryan Murray- 20 in the NHL
Jacob Trouba-20 in the NHL
Morgan Reilly-20 in the NHL
Ollie Maata- 20 in the NHL
Cody Ceci-20 in the NHL
Dougie Hamilton-19 in the NHL
Nathan Beileau- 21 In the NHL
Adam Larsson- 19 in the NHL

Those are almost all pretty good D….

Some of these are having good/bad seasons. Hugely inconsistent in some cases. Keep them down longer and by the time they debut in the NHL they’re physically stronger/more durable, and understand enough nuances of the professional game to allow them time to concentrate on the finer points of the NHL game.

Luke Shenn had a big rookie season, then saw his trajectory plummet. Justin Schultz…

GCW_69

godot10:
There was a lot less resistance to the idea of Hanifin last year.Far less than the idea of Ekblad. (The majority seemed to want a centre).And far far less than the idea of Nurse.The majority wanted the big Russian winger.

The prolonged suckitude of the defense has softened the mainstream oilogosphere opinion that one should never draft defensemen if there is a remotely comparable forward to draft.

There is as little risk drafting a defensemen if they are big with superior passing and skating skills as drafting a centre. The mistakes on high D are made by looking at boxcars and size alone.

Yes, the Oilers complete ineptitude in procuring defensemen any other way has brought us back to drafting them.

Snowman

hunter1909,

That timeline for high drafted dmen doesn’t make sense. It just doesn’t. These are all dman drafted high in the first round of their respective drafts back to 2011 and the ages they first played a significant number of games in the NHL.

Noah Hanifin- 18 years old in the NHL
Ekblad-18 years old in the NHL
Seth Jones-19 in the NHL
Darnell Nurse – 20 in the NHL
Ristolainen- 19 in the NHL
Ryan Murray- 20 in the NHL
Jacob Trouba-20 in the NHL
Morgan Reilly-20 in the NHL
Ollie Maata- 20 in the NHL
Cody Ceci-20 in the NHL
Dougie Hamilton-19 in the NHL
Nathan Beileau- 21 In the NHL
Adam Larsson- 19 in the NHL

Those are almost all pretty good D….

hunter1909

It might be me, but Isn’t it more depressing when the team brings in veteran defencemen who turn out to play badly, when they could be playing young drafted in house defencemen, who, despite making mistakes can improve with time?

Overall, the Oilers are a lot better than in previous seasons. I’m saying this despite not watching a whole lot of them play since SuperDave went down.

SuperDave. That’s going to be his nickname, folks.

hunter1909

I’d personally keep SuperDave away from the press until he’s ready to play hockey.

18 year olds don’t need that kind of stress on their injured shoulders.

Re Nurse: Since defencemen tend to get injured more often and therefore bust more, it makes sense to keep them far away from the NHL until they’re at least 21 years old. Larry Robinson didn’t get a game until he was 21, and it certainly didn’t hurt anyone.

Naturally Oilers can’t wait for Christmas to open their presents.

PhrankLee

Gerta Rauss: -thought Purcell played his best game of the year for us in LA

That was my exact feeling as well.

That may have been the best game I have seen Purcell play as an Oiler.

Gerta Rauss

TMac Monday audio

http://oilers.nhl.com/club/podcastplayer.htm?pid=98&iid=52744


-we’re trying to keep the sick guys away from the healthy guys

-thought Purcell played his best game of the year for us in LA

Speaks at length about Talbot and how he was great in preseason and the first 6 or 7 games, but things “aren’t going the way he would like right now”. Mentioned they see him a a long term solution in goal.

Snowman

I would like to add that, in the case of Nurse and Drai, the idea of drafting BPA and drafting for need are not mutually exclusive. The Oilers very well could have had both as their BPA on their internal draft lists and obviously both still met a need.

I see no reason to assume the Oilers thought Bennett was a better player than Drai or that the big Russian was a better player than Nurse. That’s adding an after the fact assumption to the narrative that the Oilers draft for need and not BPA. I’m not sure there was a significant difference in skill between the players in either case to make a compelling argument that the Oilers didn’t draft their BPA.

Centre of attention

Schultz called his injury a “bulged disk” but felt like he was “close to returning”

Something tells me those two statements don’t belong in the same sentence.

godot10

Re: Goaltenders and everything else

Performance increases with stress, until it falls of a cliff.

And then there is a hysteresis effect to regain performance, once elevated stress levels return to normal.

godot10

There was a lot less resistance to the idea of Hanifin last year. Far less than the idea of Ekblad. (The majority seemed to want a centre). And far far less than the idea of Nurse. The majority wanted the big Russian winger.

The prolonged suckitude of the defense has softened the mainstream oilogosphere opinion that one should never draft defensemen if there is a remotely comparable forward to draft.

There is as little risk drafting a defensemen if they are big with superior passing and skating skills as drafting a centre. The mistakes on high D are made by looking at boxcars and size alone.

speeds

oilswell:

It doesn’t consider risk, even a little.

BPA is just an heuristic that is seductive by its simplicity. Honestly I wish/hope we can move past it.Your effort to cram subtlety into it by dancing around definitions is counter productive. Jmo.

I think risk is built into BPA by most, but how it is quantified, if it is, is up for debate.

I don’t think people use it rigidly without consideration of many factors, including organizational depth, scarcity, organizational strength in developing, perceived rating of the player, etc.

oilswell

G Money:
Bruce McCurdy,

I think it’s the ones where the defense does its job and the shot is weak or poor and it goes in anyway, that’s what has people’s shorts (rightly) in a knot.

I fail to see how the play of the rest of the team in any way makes bad goaltending any better. If Talbot let in a bad goal it remains bad even if there is a chain of events that, if altered, could have prevented the shot.

By the way, for any goal against it is possible to find a way to prevent the shot. I get Bruce’s fine point but I feel justified blaming the goalie on a bad goal. The team in front generates / allows 25-35 shots per game, it is the goalies job to stop the easiest ones, no matter their genesis.

G Money

oilswell,

Hmmm, perhaps you missed the sentence immediately after the part you quoted? The sentence was: “That’s wrong.”

The whole point of my post was to highlight exactly some of the points you just made, which is that BPA is a general purpose statement, but must be treated as a rule of thumb rather than as some sort of gospel truth.

People who apply BPA blindly or as some sort of ironclad rule (and there are some of those purists out there) will do themselves a disservice.

That said, if your point is that BPA has no value as a point of principle in drafting, then I cannot agree with you.

I do think that many teams, and the Oilers are certainly one to be included in that, have botched their drafts precisely because they felt there was so much nuance, individual opinion, and pomp and circumstance to be applied to the decision making process for drafting that they overthought themselves into a tizzy and went out and made a terrible pick. Or a sequence of terrible picks. Or entire years worth of terrible picks.

In those cases, if they’d asked themselves “regardless of need, is there a clear BPA right now?”, they would have saved themselves (and by extension, us fans) a whole lot of heartache.

oilswell

G Money:
People confuse this to mean that if Bobby Mac has a winger ranked #5 and defenseman ranked #6, and your team is choc-a-bloc with wingers and desperately need defensemen, then you should still take the #5 ranked winger ahead of the #6 ranked defenseman because ‘BPA

I can’t agree with this, primarily because it’s illogical and, basically, BPA apologetics.

If MacKenzie generated a total order player ranking, BPA says you always choose the better player, and the #1 is better than #2 and #7 is better than #8. Full stop. It’s completely clear by the name “Best Player Available”. And by memory its extremely likely that the Oilers selected due to need for Nurse and Draisaitl.

Because BPA as a selection heuristic is hopelessly naive.

It doesn’t account for difficulty in generating a useful total order, particularly after the middle of round one.

It is founded on the assumption that players are completely liquid assets with an ideal open market. Both assumptions are wrong.

It doesn’t account for the draft being a game played by multiple teams. Some players highly ranked by your team will be ranked lower by others and you can pick them up with a later pick. Some teams will trade up for a player with lower value.

It doesn’t account for the fact that value to an organization is not equal to BPA due to myriad reasons.

It doesn’t consider risk, even a little.

BPA is just an heuristic that is seductive by its simplicity. Honestly I wish/hope we can move past it. Your effort to cram subtlety into it by dancing around definitions is counter productive. Jmo.

stush18

Woodguy,

I’d like to say I was very pro hanifin As well. To the point I thought the groupings were

1-mcdavid, eichel
2-hanifin
3-strome, marner

I was only just starting reading posting here at the nurse draft. But I was very pro monahan/ristolainen. Lots of people were knocking monahan because of his skating. Give me high hockey sense and poor skating any day.

So far ristolainen looks like the better option than nurse, although it’s early. I still would prefer him, but am perfectly content with nurse.

Dominoiler

Secondary verification, Rutherford was the originator of the “don’t draft D in the first round” thread of reasoning.. Which brings us to the, also verified, conclusion that this is a (insert stronger conclusion that doesn’t resort to shallow name calling) stupid decision..

http://thehockeywriters.com/changing-ways-is-defense-the-future-in-carolina/

RexLibris

Woodguy: Fuck that guy.

Where is that guy?

I think he may have actually, you know, fucked right off!

Did the blog put him on LTIR? Lowetide Insulted Reserve?

jake70

Bruce McCurdy: Well I’m hearing folks hanging the first goal on Saturday on Talbot, and it was a bad goal from his perspective. But before he got beaten Oilers had full control behind the icing line and two Kings forwards, Tanner Pearson & Marian Gaborik, beat up Sekera & Nurse & stole their lunch money & in about two seconds flat the puck went from an Oilers possession to a two-foot shot from the edge of the crease.Should Talbot have played it differently? probably. Was that goal ALL on him? No.

Yet once people start counting up “bad goals” they often forget that there were circumstances leading up to them & simply say “bad goals = goalie’s fault period” & that may be neither entirely accurate nor enitrely fair.

The “pass” from Eberle to Sekera started that specific sequence, then he goes for a skate near the blue line , must have been a hottie sitting near there, Lander must have noticed her too, he was already out there. What a CF of a sequence. They all get the blame on that one.

frjohnk

PhrankLee: It’s funny too because we hardly discussed Eichel or McDavid. At least in terms of becoming Oilers.

At least I was sad sack enough to feel that we would never get a lottery sniff for another 15 yrs.

We were not going to pick 2nd. And Eichel was the consensus number 2.

It was either 1st,3rd or 4th that…..

Ah Fuck it.

We got McDavid.

Woot!!!!!!!!

PhrankLee

Woodguy: There were 3 Elite groups.
Group 1 – McDavid
Group 2 – Eichel
Group 3- Hanifin, Marner, Strome.

It’s funny too because we hardly discussed Eichel or McDavid. At least in terms of becoming Oilers.

At least I was sad sack enough to feel that we would never get a lottery sniff for another 15 yrs.

Woodguy

Pajamah: I blame Bookje.

Fuck that guy.

LMHF#1

Gret99zky:

On a two on one, the dman takes the pass (and the open guy) the goalie takes the shooter (the guy with the puck).

Good stuff in the post, but I always preferred a slightly different approach to 2-on-1s. The very best always seemed to swing over a little closer to the shooter if the 2-on-1 happens on or before zone entry. From here you get one shot (minimum) at the puck and can force a bad pass that will either miss or be picked off a bunch. You have to be a good skater to get back into “take the pass” position from here, but the good ones always could.

Applied this to my game after seeing the pros do it and it made a huge difference in how the attacking forwards could approach the 2-on-1.

Woodguy

4th_Line_Plug:
http://thehockeywriters.com/report-avalanche-taking-calls-on-semyon-varlamov/

For fun what would an Oilers-Avalanche deal look like for the Oilers to get Varlamov, Duchene, Barrie? Eberle, 2016 first, Talbot, Ference, and Fayne?

You;d need Omark and a 2nd to top it off.

Woodguy

PhrankLee: There was a large Hanifin contingent. But I recall Marner being the apple consensus of the collective blog eye at the time.

I wanted someone bigger and stronger.

Then Bill Daly changed our lives forever.

Then that guy got hurt and all our tears fall on Talbot.

I was a Hanafin guy and it wasn’t close.

The consensus among the scouts was that there were 2 elite talents and Eichel probably goes #1 in every draft before 2015 all the way back to Crosby’s draft.

Then there was a group of very good players below them who might go #1 in many drafts as well.

There were 3 Elite groups.

Group 1 – McDavid

Group 2 – Eichel

Group 3- Hanifin, Marner, Strome.

Oiler’s major probability was to pick 3rd.

Out of those 3 players, the type the Oilers didn’t already have was Hanifin.

High end skater with a big big brain and offense.

As good as Marner and Strome are, this team is more bereft of multi-tool Dmen who are ++ skaters than anything else and in my mind that trumped all in that group.

Godot and I were the most vocal Hanfin guys.

I’m sure Bank Shot is positive I wanted Crouse.

Statsman

Gret99zky:
Goalies cannot be expected to stop all the shots.

Just like defensemen cannot be expected to prevent all shots from getting through.

The defensemen’s job is to let the shot happen from the least dangerous area, so that the goalie has a high percentage chance at making the save.

Forcing the shot to come from the outside (along the boards) is a good play for dmen.Allowing shots to come from the slot is not.

On a two on one, the dman takes the pass (and the open guy) the goalie takes the shooter (the guy with the puck).

Shots from the point, from just over the blue (unscreened) should all be stopped my NHL quality goalies.As should shots coming from behind the goal line. (Talbot)

Shots are going to come.It’s the defenders job to make sure they happen from low percentage scoring areas (high percentage save areas).

This is exactly right. The only part we are missing right now is the goalie’s stopping the easier ones.

From a psychological standpoint, letting in a stinker or misplaying the puck and giving the opponent an easy one is very demoralizing to the rest of the team…you can just see it on the bench when a stoppable puck goes in.

On a positive note, it seems like this year’s version of the team responds much better when the goaler lets in a bad one. In the past, it would be simply “game over”.

DRFNsuperstar

http://thehockeywriters.com/report-avalanche-taking-calls-on-semyon-varlamov/

For fun what would an Oilers-Avalanche deal look like for the Oilers to get Varlamov, Duchene, Barrie? Eberle, 2016 first, Talbot, Ference, and Fayne?

Woodguy

Pouzar:
http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=4&id=875830&lang=en

The no comment on the incident is very telling.

Connor McHighRoad

That’s a special young man.

Woodguy

TheOtherJohn:
Sorry for the late comment but Seth Jones is averaging 20:06 TOI a night or the 3rd most ice time on the Predators. More than Ellis, Ekholm and Jackman. He just turned 21 and is currently on pace for 5 g and 46a for 511 pts

Not sure the definition used for 3rd pairing but that is a lot of ice time for a 3rd pairing guy

First off, I love Jones and none of this is meant to be derogatory towards him. He’d be the best RHD on the Oilers the second he stepped on the ice.

That being said, he does play on the 3rd pair in NSH.

We can see he’s 3rd pairing via 5v5 TOI/gm and who he’s playing with, and against.

5v5 TOI/60
NSH Dmen 5v5 TOI/60 via BTN:
ROMANJOSI 18.33
SHEAWEBER 18.03
MATTIASEKHOLM 16.15
RYANELLIS 15.98
SETHJONES 15.09
BARRETJACKMAN 13.27

Who he’s playing against
NSH Dmen CorsiRelQC:
SHEAWEBER 2.3
ROMANJOSI 2.245
RYANELLIS 0.443
MATTIASEKHOLM 0.378
SETHJONES -0.639
BARRETJACKMAN -0.846

Who he’s playing with.
Seth Jones TOI D partners as per stat.hockeyanalysis.com

Jones total 5v5 TOI 237min
w/ Jackman 178min
w/ Ekholm 33:46
w/ Ellis 9:57
w/ Josi 9:34
w/ Weber 5:21

So, he’s 5/6 in 5v5 TOI/60

He’s has almost the same RelCOrQC as the 6th Dman Jackman

He’s played 75% of his 5v5 TOI w/ 6th Dman Jackman.

Its pretty clear he’s 3rd pairing.

Where I think you are being confused is via the special teams TOI..

Jones PK’s, while Ellis doesn’t.

Here’s NSH’s 4v5 TOI/60:

SHEAWEBER 2.67
ROMANJOSI 2.47
SETHJONES 1.97
BARRETJACKMAN 1.54
MATTIASEKHOLM 1.46
RYANELLIS 0.96

Jones plays the PP, while Ekholm and Jackman don’t

Here’s NSH’s 5v4 TOI/60
ROMANJOSI 2.74
SHEAWEBER 2.71
SETHJONES 2.46
RYANELLIS 2.27
MATTIASEKHOLM 0.32
BARRETJACKMAN 0.01

Since Jones plays all 3 disciplines his overall TOI/gm will be higher than Ellis, Ekholm and Jackman’s

So Jones is a 3rd pairing Dman on NSH.

He’s just probably the best 3rd pairing Dman in the NHL.

Pouzar

http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=4&id=875830&lang=en

The no comment on the incident is very telling.

Pouzar

F6ckin Baidu. Damnit

Dominoiler

su_dhillon: WG, you’re still my boy but somebody needs to put you in the bathroom. Maybe for your own good
Sukh

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQpFbfaILzY

Hahaha, hilarious… Yeah, yeah, get him in the bathroom.. You too, bookie, get in the fuckin bathroom..

G Money

khildahl,

Precisely!

I knew there were other programmers, but they tend to lurk a bit.

G Money

Bank Shot: That will probably change when someone comes out with a proven and accurate way to gauge the value of defensemen with statistics.

Heh heh.

I chuckle, because precisely that debate has been raging in the background here for quite a long time, and more intensely of late as we deal with our own D conundrums (like: “why hasn’t fancystats darling Mark Fayne been … you know … better?”).

Dominoiler
Gret99zky

Goalies cannot be expected to stop all the shots.

Just like defensemen cannot be expected to prevent all shots from getting through.

The defensemen’s job is to let the shot happen from the least dangerous area, so that the goalie has a high percentage chance at making the save.

Forcing the shot to come from the outside (along the boards) is a good play for dmen. Allowing shots to come from the slot is not.

On a two on one, the dman takes the pass (and the open guy) the goalie takes the shooter (the guy with the puck).

Shots from the point, from just over the blue (unscreened) should all be stopped my NHL quality goalies. As should shots coming from behind the goal line. (Talbot)

Shots are going to come. It’s the defenders job to make sure they happen from low percentage scoring areas (high percentage save areas).

Bank Shot

G Money: It is worthwhile pointing out that when the Oilers finished last season (prior to the McDavid lottery) and were expecting to pick third (or fourth under the assumption somebody else would win), I wrote an article at NerdAlert specifically looking at my own prior work and the work of others regarding the issue of drafting D high, and the implications for drafting Hanifin.

Nothing in that article can be construed as some sort of ‘don’t draft D high’ mantra, not at all.

A few days later, I ran a poll (which is heavily biased towards Lowetide posters) as to which player the Oilers should take with that 3/4 pick, and the choice, overwhelmingly, was Noah Hanifin.

So the idea that folks here somehow reflexively argue against drafting D high is false.

Public opinion has definitely swung over the years as we have been taking forwards first overall for years and haven’t been getting anywhere. Plus the now dire need for D. There was definitely more resistance to Nurse.

Anyway I didn’t say everyone. Just that there was a vocal group.

That will probably change when someone comes out with a proven and accurate way to gauge the value of defensemen with statistics.

Right now we have some proxies for offence, some for defence, but nothing that ties them together and nothing that allows to compare the contributions of a D-man to that of a forward.

Dominoiler

Lowetide:
Defensemen are more prone to injury and less likely to show themselves. Often the top D selected won’t be the best of his generation. These are facts. No one ever said don’t take a D in the first round thatI recall, unless someone resorted to hyperbole

I think this whole mantra / idea came up years ago after the Carolina GM made a statement about never wanting to take a dman in the first round, saying it was unwise.. Then many took the ball and ran w it, saying you can trade a quicker developing, higher value asset in the forward for D when you need it..

Kinda funny how this runs alongside the resistance against trading any of the big name, not Mcdavid, forwards.. Laughable, IMO.. Carolina took hanifan because it was the right play, so can we just throw out this garbage idea and go back to the mantra of balance?!..

PhrankLee

frjohnk: PhrankLee:
frjohnk,
I was Strome all the way.
You are definitely NOT helping.
Get out

There was a large Hanifin contingent. But I recall Marner being the apple consensus of the collective blog eye at the time.

I wanted someone bigger and stronger.

Then Bill Daly changed our lives forever.

Then that guy got hurt and all our tears fall on Talbot.

Woodguy

AsiaOil,

Did you change your sn to DarkOil back then?

Lackadaisical

khildahl:
G Money,

Hey, I speak programmer just fine.

The trick is to realize that every sentence translates to one of three possible statements: 1.“Leave me alone, you idiot.” 2.“I need more coffee.” 3.“Leave me alone so I can go get more coffee, you idiot.”

Bahahaha!

You’re going to cause me to spit coffee all over my shirt, you idiot! 😀

Lackadaisical

G Money,

Music! That’s exactly what I was thinking, but much more eloquently stated. Thanks for breaking it down, and pointing out the potential flaws.

Also, will do, I appreciate the advice very much!

khildahl

G Money,

Hey, I speak programmer just fine.

The trick is to realize that every sentence translates to one of three possible statements:
1. “Leave me alone, you idiot.”
2. “I need more coffee.”
3. “Leave me alone so I can go get more coffee, you idiot.”

G Money

From the previous thread:

Lackadaisical:
Regarding what I mentioned earlier, and your response, I’m not sure if my meaning was properly or fully conveyed.Please allow me to attempt to rearticulate the idea to ensure clarity, and forgive my verbosity.If I simply didn’t fully understand your answer, I apologise for belaboring the point.

As I understand it, you adjust the danger of the shot based on distance and the type of shot.What I’m proposing is perhaps additional context, in that certain defences will allow more of a certain shot/distance combo.A player may consistently not pinch properly for example, or the team deploys with a small quirk, allowing for a certain pattern to develop reflected in the dangerous shot type/distance opportunities that may follow.

Additionally, a specific type/distance/zone combination may be more dangerous to certain goalies, reflecting for example if they’re challenging the puck well, hugging the post tight etc. Allowing for a relatively skewed number of goals, specific to them from that type/distance/zone.

Would not utilizing/creating this sort of metric be a better frame of reference for establishing how well your team is deploying against and attacking those weaknesses?(Both in creating opportunities, by creating the situations, that create the shots that the defence is shown to be likely to give up, and situations the goalie has shown difficulty dealing with?). Or perhaps this metric would be useful in itself, allowing for another layer for evaluating goalies and D?

I guess my TLDR/summary would be:
Is type/distance enough without considering specific competition and their usual deficiencies?Isn’t it better to drive the data from a defensive, as opposed to offensive, perspective to better contextualize capitalization?

Thanks for your time, I’m a big fan of your work.(I’m aspiring to become an analytics hobbyist and professional programmer.I’m “self-teaching” in analytics and python whenever I can make time, so you’re kind of a role model to me.Walking the path that I’m starting to set my feet to). I put this to you, as it seems at least a possible branch of your danger adjustment work, and I currently lack the skills to recognize if there is any validity to my supposition, while trusting your opinion and knowledge.

As another aside, I wish I’d had more tact calling out Gregor RE crediting your work.The casual laziness and “apology” infuriated beyond what was likely appropriate.I apologize if that caused you any undue frustration or difficulty rectifying the situation yourself.

Lt, if you happen upon this, I’ve always appreciated how well you’ve credited and commended all the great posters that make this blog(and through extension, your show) special.

Goodnight!

OK, I see what you’re getting at.

So conceptually, let me separate two things: calculating the data vs using the data.

When I do the danger calculations (as does anyone else when they are using a similar approach), I take the overall success rate for all teams for shots and use that as the basis for danger.

I’m not sure you’d want to restrict your calculations to a narrower dataset than that, because the data is already extremely noisy, so high volume is important.

Now that said, once you’ve got that data, your suggestion is a highly perceptiveone.

I think looking for individual patterns of variances from that data – which is I believe what you’re suggesting when proposing to look at specific strengths and weaknesses of D and G – is exactly what every team should be using this data for!

Right now, teams might scout a goalie by watching a few games and going with ‘shoot high’, or ‘aim five hole’ or whatever. But if you can look at an individual goalies save pattern and discover that he’s got a specific weakness against slapshots from the top of the circle … man, that’s gold, right?

You’d have to be careful with that (it’s that data volume thing that will bite you, because when looking at slapshots from the top of the circle, even veteran goalies won’t have a lot of data, so the ‘weakness’ you’re seeing could just be spurious noise), but it’s worth considering as an exploit.

Similar for d men, if you know that a specific pair tends to give up a ton of shots from a particular region on the ice, you should at least consider working some zone entry strategies that look to attack that particular area.

You could use this data in reverse as well – if it shows that particular areas of the ice are a weakness for the G, a D, or a D pairing, review the tapes and see if you can address that weakness during practice.

So to sum up – calculate the data on the widest basis possible, but then use that data at the individual level to find the weaknesses that help exploit the other teams weaknesses and help coach your own guys better.

Does that capture it?

(Re: your Python/data analysis pursuit. Have had a lot of fun, hope you do too! Make sure you get the ‘scipy’ stack – Numpy, SciPy, Matplotlib, and Pandas. The last one is absolutely invaluable for working with data, just amazingly powerful. I’m sure you have your own resources, but if you do get stuck, feel free to ask – we can bore all the other posters here with incomprehensible programming jibber jabber).