OILERS NO. 5 PROSPECT (winter 2015): GRIFFIN REINHART

It’s rare for NHL teams to trade top five overall picks before those players establish their level of ability at the big league level. There’s significant risk in dealing away these players, but it’s also true that the drafting organization has already made the call on the player’s long-term potential. Consider the last 10 seasons: Griffin Reinhart (2012); Nino Niederreiter (2010); Brayden Schenn (2009) were the only men dealt before seeing significant NHL time. Two from the Islanders and one part of a blockbuster deal via Los Angeles. It’s a rare thing, but there’s also a hint of ‘bloom off the rose’ in all three cases. These are the facts as we know them as Griffin Reinhart enters his Oilers career.

PREVIOUSLY NO. 5 ON THE WINTER LIST

  • December 2004: D Doug Lynch (2 NHL games)
  • December 2005: C Andrew Cogliano (640 NHL games)
  • December 2006: L Jean-Francois Jacques (166 NHL games)
  • December 2007: C Rob Schremp (114 NHL games)
  • December 2008: D Alex Plante (10 NHL games)
  • December 2009: D Theo Peckham (160 NHL games)
  • December 2010: D Theo Peckham (160 NHL games)
  • December 2011: D Martin Marincin (95 NHL games)
  • December 2012: L Teemu Hartikainen (52 NHL games)
  • December 2013: C Jujhar Khaira
  • December 2014: W Iiro Pakarinen (27 NHL games)

Very similar to the previous list (Cogliano, JFJ, Schremp) with Theo Peckham thrown in for good measure. Khaira, Pakarinen and now Reinhart have much of their story still to be written, but if you look back at Alex Plante in 2008—that’s one of the big reasons Edmonton’s defense is poor. Major miss in 2007.

reinhart griffin

WHAT THEY SAID ON DRAFT DAY

  • Corey Pronman, Hockey Prospectus: What separates him from other big defensemen is that he has the puck skills to make people miss, execute all the little plays in tight quarters, and to deliver crisp, accurate passes consistently. Reinhart also has a more aggressive offensive element to his game as he will join the rush and doesn’t shy from being creative in the offensive end of the rink. He also has a pretty big shot from the point that he can put a lot of his big frame into. The thing that has seen Reinhart establish himself so well in the industry has been his improvements.
  • Grant McCagg, tsn: Strengths: Very few 6-4 blueliners can skate and handle the puck like Reinhart, and those attributes alone will intrigue lots of scouts. Has a hard point shot that often finds its mark, good passing skills. Weaknesses: Does not always play with an abundance of passion and drive. Could be more assertive physically, and more consistent in his effort.
  • BJ MacDonald, central scouting: “He’s got nice, soft hands for a big defenseman, can run the power play and has a big shot — both the wrist shot and slapper. He moves the puck as well as anyone in this year’s draft and I like the way he thinks the game. He’s got a nice pro style that will make for an easier transition to the (NHL).”
  • Craig Button: Griffin may be a diamond in the rough but he possesses the carats of a unique player. He has a an excellent understanding of the game with a composure and patience that may suggest a lack of urgency but don’t be confused, his competitive waters run deep and he’s capable of being aggressive and assertive when necessary. He is a very good skater with strong balance and agility and along with his size, he is extremely difficult to break down 1-1 and gain an advantage on. He uses his body effectively and doesn’t lose position and is capable of punishing opponents. His vision is very good, he sees the play unfolding, knows what his options are and is capable of doing this very quickly. He makes very good plays in all areas of the game and ones that gain advantages for his team. His offensive skills continue to evolve and he is increasingly confident creating offense. Griffin has an assuredness in his play and along with his skill and physical attributes, makes him a player who has a chance to be an impact player in the NHL.

reinhart3

MEMORIAL CUP ANALYTICS

  • Megan Richardson: “What is there to say about Griffin Reinhart? Here’s a guy who played probably every even strength shift against the Petan line or the De Leo line, two monster entry and possession lines. At the beginning of the regular season, those six players carried the puck in an average of 84% of the time. And yet, playing against that top competition, he had the greatest percentage of break-ups and fewest shot attempts against per entry of all Edmonton’s defensemen, rivaled only by Irving, who played cupcake minutes. To see the true impact he had on entries, we can look at his defensive partner Ashton Sautner, no slouch himself, and see how he got burned. After seeing this, I don’t disagree with his choice as MVP of the series.” Source

PREVIOUS TOP 20 RANKING

  • Summer 2015: 4
  • Winter 2015: 5

reinhart tc1 capture

  • Michael Fornabaio, Connecticut Post, on progress in the AHL in 2014-15: “I thought he did improve. I did see progress. A lot of people look at that No. 4 overall and expected too much. He’s a player who has that size, they wanted him to get a bit more aggressive (in Bridgeport) and sometimes he was able to do that, sometimes players were able to beat him. Over the course of the season I saw, he learned his way, figured things out, and was making some adaptations.”
  • Michael Fornabaio, Connecticut Post, On playing in the AHL: “Sometimes it’s easier to defend in the NHL because everyone else is in the right place so you can do your own thing. I wonder if that was an issue. He came down (to Bridgeport) after the first couple games on the Island and I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a player as determined to get back up there (to the NHL). At that time he came out and said I want to be an NHL player and want to show that I’m an NHL player.”

reinhart gryba capture

2015-16

  • Corey Pronman: “He’s high-end defensively, and average offensively, which is still a pretty good player. He performed well versus men this season in the AHL and could make the Oilers very soon.”
  • Peter Chiarelli“He’s ready to play and he’s going to be a very good part of our D.”
  • Todd McLellan: “It’s healthy, youth coming through if they can be productive is a real positive thing. I consider Griff to be a very young defenseman in the league, very young. He’s probably played less than Davey (Brandon Davidson) now I think, so he needs that time to grow and gain some experience.”

  • Peter Chiarelli (on his believing Griffin Reinhart being an NHL defenseman right now): “That’s fair. There’s a little bit of lead time that he has to get up and running. He has to make our team. We’ve got 8 or 9 D who are challenging. I believe he is, yeah. What I saw from him in the Memorial Cup. I know his year last year wasn’t great and there’s reasons behind that and that really is—not excuses—but there are reasons that explain it. But what I saw in the Memorial Cup is that you’ve got a player here who can dominate, that can lug the puck, and that can make plays. And for a bigger sized man, he can move well, and I would expect him to be in the top 4 at some point.”
  • Lowetide: If I’m reading the internet correctly these days, Griffin Reinhart is a slow boat who can barely tie his shoes—while also being an NHL-ready defenseman with size and mobility. It can’t be both, the scouts on draft day liked him plenty. I think he’s a solid young defenseman with size, foot speed, the ability to pass and make a pass, protect the puck, win battles and play with an edge. I think he’s close to NHL ready. I also think Darnell Nurse is a better prospect now and into the future. Source

REINHART WOWY AND VOLLMAN

reinhart wowy

nov 16 vollman

THE FUTURE

Griffin Reinhart is a former No. 4 overall selection who has some impressive things on his resume. His junior career was outstanding, and the Megan Richardson report above gives us a glimpse into what he might become at the pro level. He is not that player now, and will need some time to establish himself in the NHL.

One thing that will make his transition to the NHL more difficult: Darnell Nurse. He and GR arrived at the same time and Nurse is a better player across all the disciplines (or appears to be). Reinhart has had an injury early in the year, further complicating things.

Long story short: I like Griffin Reinhart as a prospect. I don’t think the Oilers needed him this year because his skills are duplicated (and exceeded) by Darnell Nurse. He may also face competition from minor leaguer Brandon Davidson, who is proving to be surprisingly useful this autumn.

While those things are interesting, that doesn’t have anything to do with our conversation here. Reinhart is a very valuable young player, and his future probably involves several years as a productive NHL regular. It’s not certain that future will be in Edmonton.

reinhart griffin capture

THE 2012 DRAFT

  • Nail Yakupov, No. 1 overall. The 2015-16 season is the most encouraging we’ve seen from him since his rookie year. Flourishing with McDavid. Graduated to the NHL.
  • Griffin Reinhart, No. 4 overall. The Oilers didn’t draft him, but sure as hell talked about it based on what we’re told. If the Garth Snow rumors are true, Steve Tambellini made a massive error. He’s pushing for NHL employment now. No. 5 prospect, Winter 2015. (acquired summer 2015).
  • Mitch Moroz, No. 32 overall. Finally getting some AHL time and showing a pulse. A candidate for the Winter Top 20.
  • Jujhar Khaira, No. 63 overall. Stepping up this season offensively in his second year in the AHL. Not sure if we should trust it, but an interesting curio. A candidate for the Winter Top 20.
  • Daniil Zharkov, No. 91 overall. Injured during a tryout with the AHL team. Not officially in the organization.
  • Erik Gustafsson, No. 93 overall. Productive defender in Europe, Oilers passed on opportunity to sign him. Signed with the Chicago Blackhawks and is productive as a member of their team. Of course. No longer in the organization.
  • Joey Laleggia, No. 123 overall. Undersized puck mover turned pro and is finding his way in the AHL. A candidate for the Winter Top 20.
  • John McCarron, No. 153 overall. Didn’t sign after college, now in the ECHL. No longer part of the organization.

GRIFFIN REINHART, EDMONTON OILERS

  • 5×5 points per 60: nil
  • 5×4 points per 60: nil
  • Qual Comp: No. 4 among D’s
  • Qual Team: No. 5 among D’s
  • Corsi Rel: -12.2 No. 8 among D’s
  • Corsi for % 5×5: 45.9
  • Zone Start: 51.7
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 7/0
  • Boxcars: 10GP, 0-0-0

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101 Responses to "OILERS NO. 5 PROSPECT (winter 2015): GRIFFIN REINHART"

  1. elgruntus says:

    ” If the Garth Snow rumors are true, Steve Tambellini made a massive error.”

    LT, Pleas elaborate. There were so many rumors at the time.

  2. Colieo87 says:

    The game was amazing last night. I loved it. This team is growing. I don’t comment much on the blog like I use to. But they are meshing. Don’t give up on the forward top six. Omg unicorns. The bottom six needs some tweaking. Boyd gorden would be excellent here to still mentor lander. Griffen, nurse, sykera are going to be good. Just going to take time. Rome back yard wasn’t built 5 years and ours isn’t either just a new Shiney area ?

    LT thank you for you time and comment to hang in there with the economic downturn. I’m trying to get 2-3 jobs just to keep ends meat on the table. It’d going to be okay. Good speed LT and everyone.

  3. Younger Oil says:

    Just wondering LT, where would Barzal/Svechnikov and your pick for #33 rank on your list?

  4. Магия 10 says:

    “It’s not certain that [Gryba’s] future will be in Edmonton.”

    fixed that for you.

    GR has CF 50% overall even with boatloads of time in the Gryba triangle. 57.6% without Gryba.
    Davidson’s emergence may actually help free Reinhart from the boat anchor.

  5. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Davidson at 54.4% ES CF right now. Not playing super softies either.

  6. Gordies Elbow says:

    Reinhart-Davidson.

    Nice ring to it.

  7. leadfarmer says:

    Anyone know this rumor that LT is alluding to?

  8. RexLibris says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    Reinhart-Davidson.

    Nice ring to it.

    If we project Reinhart as 2nd pairing D, could Davidson be much further behind him, or even at the same level?

    I generally see strong decisions and good plays within his skill set by Davidson. He is consistent and competent at what he does, at relatively high levels. On a stacked team he’d be a tremendous 3rd pairing guy.

    Nurse looks 1st pairing to me, and Klefbom is trending there.

    If all those players continue apace, that provides the Oilers with 5 top four defensemen when we include Sekera and we haven’t even discussed Schultz.

    Defense depth can turn around quickly when you have a group of players all in the same age range. And wouldn’t it be spectacular if this team could solve their 1D and 2D problems internally by season’s end without having to move Eberle.

  9. ashley says:

    Nice post. Very fair, dispassionate, and (IMO) accurate assessment of this player. Hat tip to you for making the call on this player’s role and upside within 24 hours of the trade. You were right, many of us were wrong.

    I think he’ll be a valuable piece here for a long time. One of the positives is his shy offensive numbers which are a more valuable asset in a cap world than I think gets credit. Much of the money goes to the Dmen who post offense, but many of them are of equal value to the team as Dmen of this type.

    We will never have to worry about a 7 million dollar/year contract with Griffen.

  10. leadfarmer says:

    Fun fact. Out of 42 goals Dubnyk has given up this year 10 have been of his own player.

  11. Lowetide says:

    Younger Oil:
    Just wondering LT, where would Barzal/Svechnikov and your pick for #33 rank on your list?

    1. Connor McDavid
    2. Darnell Nurse
    3. Leon Draisaitl
    4. Mathew Barzal
    5. Anton Slepysev
    6. Jansen Harkins

  12. Big Dan says:

    The rumor was the isles offered all of their picks for the 1st or 2nd pick because they coveted Ryan Murray.

    Had the oilers taken the offer, they’d have griffin Reinhart and all of new york’s other picks instead of nail yakupov.

    If tambo was offered that, he was crazy not to take it. Sat on his hands like usual.

  13. JDï™ says:

    Just checking in – has that Harmonic balancer arrived yet? Seems like forever since we ordered it.

  14. Lowetide says:

    Colieo87:
    The game was amazing last night.I loved it.This team is growing.I don’t comment much on the blog like I use to.But they are meshing.Don’t give up on the forward top six.Omg unicorns.The bottom six needs some tweaking.Boyd gorden would be excellent here to still mentor lander.Griffen,nurse,sykera are going to be good.Just going to take time.Rome back yard wasn’t built 5 years and ours isn’t either just a new Shiney area ?

    LT thank you for you time and comment to hang in there with the economic downturn.I’m trying to get 2-3 jobs just to keep ends meat on the table.It’d going to be okay.Good speed LT and everyone.

    Glad to know things are better. Sometimes the damndest things have led me in a better direction.

  15. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    Anyone know this rumor that LT is alluding to?

    Rumor had it GS offered all of his 2012 picks to CBJ for No. 2 overall.
    http://bluejacketsxtra.dispatch.com/content/blogs/puck-rakers/2012/06/isles-offered-all-their-picks.html

    ==

    That’s right, for the Jackets’ No. 2 pick, the Islanders offered pick Nos. 4, 34, 65, 103, 125, 155 and 185. The bounty would have given the Jackets the following picks: 4, 31, 34, 62, 65, 95, 103, 125, 152, 155, 182 and 185. And if that weren’t enough, the Jackets could have had the Kings’ No. 30 if they wanted it.

    ==

  16. Bad Seed says:

    Lowetide: Rumor had it GS offered all of his 2012 picks to CBJ for No. 2 overall.
    http://bluejacketsxtra.dispatch.com/content/blogs/puck-rakers/2012/06/isles-offered-all-their-picks.html

    ==

    That’s right, for the Jackets’ No. 2 pick, the Islanders offered pick Nos. 4, 34, 65, 103, 125, 155 and 185. The bounty would have given the Jackets the following picks: 4, 31, 34, 62, 65, 95, 103, 125, 152, 155, 182 and 185. And if that weren’t enough, the Jackets could have had the Kings’ No. 30 if they wanted it.

    ==

    So there were two nitwits who turned that offer down. Not like there was a generational player there.

  17. Centre of attention says:

    Tobias with another assist tonight.

    *weeps quietly*

    Him and Drai could of been our Duo of Dangling Dutchmen!

  18. leadfarmer says:

    Bad Seed,

    Yak was far and away the best regarded prospect, so at that time getting a pile of mid round picks wasn’t that impressive. Now with hindsight it seems like a good deal. Seemed like he’s lost a lot of attributes that he seemed to have. I remember him having this best one timer since Stamkos. Now he can’t even time it properly.

  19. Frank the dog says:

    leadfarmer:
    Bad Seed,

    Yak was far and away the best regarded prospect, so at that time getting a pile of mid round picks wasn’t that impressive.Now with hindsight it seems like a good deal. Seemed like he’s lost a lot of attributes that he seemed to have.I remember him having this best one timer since Stamkos.Now he can’t even time it properly.

    The dementor broke Yak. The 2 Mc’s are putting him back together. Todd & Connor.

  20. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    Bad Seed,

    Yak was far and away the best regarded prospect, so at that time getting a pile of mid round picks wasn’t that impressive.Now with hindsight it seems like a good deal. Seemed like he’s lost a lot of attributes that he seemed to have.I remember him having this best one timer since Stamkos.Now he can’t even time it properly.

    Yep
    https://lowetide.ca/2012/06/15/draft-week-post-6-final-top-30/

  21. Johnny skid says:

    leadfarmer:
    Bad Seed,

    Yak was far and away the best regarded prospect, so at that time getting a pile of mid round picks wasn’t that impressive.Now with hindsight it seems like a good deal. Seemed like he’s lost a lot of attributes that he seemed to have.I remember him having this best one timer since Stamkos.Now he can’t even time it properly.

    playing with a centre that can pass the puck yak has proven he can score. playing with latestu he will not show well on the score sheet.

  22. Really? says:

    Reinhart was a very wise mid-long term investment by PC. While he may not be a “home run”, he will pay dividends and be a very valuable player for the Oilers.

    As for Yakupov and his one timer, it is only of value if he hits the net. Right now he isn’t doing that. He is therefore of very limited value.

  23. JDï™ says:

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/insider-trading~753838

    Oilers in on Hamonic BEFORE this became public. BEFORE.

    DID YOU HEAR THAT DUDLEY VER2?

  24. leadfarmer says:

    Johnny skid: playing with a centre that can pass the puck yak has proven he can score. playing with latestu he will not show well on the score sheet.

    Any way you cut it, 2 goals in 19 games is not what you want out of a guy that was drafted as a goal scorer.

    He looks a lot better this year but he still has a long way to go to be the player he was supposed to be.

  25. Johnny skid says:

    leadfarmer: Any way you cut it, 2 goals in 19 games is not what you want out of a guy that was drafted as a goal scorer.

    He looks a lot better this year but he still has a long way to go to be the player he was supposed to be.

    yak has ll points in 19 games and has played a hand full of games on the third line. playing with a top centre he will do just fine. he does leave you wanting more sometimes thought.

  26. v4ance says:

    Who was the source for leaked the story?

    Isles/Snow: Nope. He lost almost all of his leverage with the news getting out. It’s basically like he’s playing texas hold’em with both his hole cards up against the other 29 GMs. 0% chance

    WPG: Nope. They are pretty much set with Myers and Trouba. Isles don’t need/want a rental in Buff for the last 5 months 5% chance

    Hamonic: Nope. I’ll take him at his word that he loves the Isles and didn’t want to leave other than for extreme personal reasons and he wouldn’t have cut Snow off at the knees in this way. 0% chance

    Hamonic’s agent: Maybe. As an agent, he would be willing to do the dirty work to make Hamonic’s trade go through, even if he had to apply some “pressure”. 10% chance

    25 teams not including NYI, EDM, CAL, WPG, VAN.: Any outside GM who wanted in on the bidding for Hamonic might spill the beans to try get Hamonic to open up his range of trading options. 25% chance total or about 5% for each team out of the bidding initially

    EDM, CAL, VAN: These were identified as the main options after WPG. They all have something that could work but would be deemed underpays by Snow. To apply maximum pressure to decrease Snow’s leverage and price, a leak would be beneficial for all these teams 20% each chance of leaking

  27. Stelio Kontos (Formerly Zangetsu-Formerly Thinker) says:

    G Money:
    *** NERD ALERT ***

    My look at the numbers on Hamonic.

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/11/19/hamonic-the-real-goods-the-numbers-say-yes/

    Right, but what are his RickiStats?

  28. leadfarmer says:

    v4ance,

    I don’t know if I agree with your assessment. Snow knows that chances of a trade with Wpg, Calgary, and Wild are slim. He sees the Oilers sitting in last place again and maybe he thought he would get the fan base riled up to put pressure on the team. It definitely has put Chia in the spotlight and if he goes to another team the lack of not putting a deal together will be analyzed for a long time by this fan base.

  29. Woodguy says:

    Bad Seed: So there were two nitwits who turned that offer down.Not like there was a generational player there.

    No one wanted to be known as “the guy who traded away the kid who broke Stamko’s OHL rookie scoring record”

  30. Jordan says:

    I like Griffin. But right now, he’s exposed as a player who can’t handle more than the dregs in this league. He’s not experienced enough.

    The reason Davidson looks good? He’s had years to hone his craft and develop.
    Reinhart may not need that much time, but he surely needs more.

    No knock on him – every player is different – just the facts right now – he’s over his head on this team.

    ____________________________________________

    I’m going to keep banging this drum, because IMO it’s the right move to make.

    Trade for Hamonic. Centre it around this years 1st. Don’t trade the best NHL assets the team has. Just trade pieces we dont need or want. Fayne, Gryba would be fine. They have some cachet. But clearly not enough for Hamonic. But with an unprotected 1st? With the Oilers penchant for lottery wins? That has real value. Hell – send them Tambo’s lucky tie too!

    If they need a sweetener, look at prospects not in the NHL. Maybe you trade one of Bear or JOnes. Or Slepy.

    But this kid is the goods, on a great value contract. And he wants to be here.

    I hope Chia gets it done for a lot less than what I’m suggesting. BUT.

    1st Pairing D man on a value contract – (As per G-Money’s analysis).

    How often do these guys come available again?

    You pay what you need to to get him.

    Rule 1 – Get good players.
    Rule 2 – Keep good players.
    Rule 3 – Don’t trade good players to get good players – Trade picks and prospects, if at all possible.

  31. Woodguy says:

    v4ance,

    Who was the source for leaked the story?
    Isles/Snow: Nope. He lost almost all of his leverage with the news getting out.

    Leverage in a trade situation is having multiple bidders.

    I do not see how this becoming public in any way hurts Snow’s position.

    What leverage are you referring to?

  32. v4ance says:

    leadfarmer,

    From Snow’s perspective, he knew that Hamonic would only accept a trade to WPG, EDM, CAL, or VAN. The other GMs did not know that those were Hamonic’s only preferred locations. In this case, Snow could have gotten STL to offer Shattenkirk and bring that offer to the Oilers to try to one-up.

    Once the trade request broke, Snow has little to no leverage now to set up an auction. He just has to sell to the highest bidder amongst the Western teams. When you know you have to beat 29 bids, you’ll bid more. If you know your compettion is only 1 desperate (EDM) and 3 middling bidders(WPG, VAN and CAL), you can sill hold firm at a lower price longer. Why would Snow have told WPG that they were the only bidders initially? Why let CAL, EDM or VAN know that they are the only secondary options? His best path to an optimal return was to quietly get teams to bid against each other with eveyone not knowing who else was actually in the race.

    The spotlight was ALWAYS on Chia no matter what, with McDavid in town. Everyone knew he was looking for defensive help. Now instead of looking longingly at the unlikely OEL all the time, or casting about for possible targets in Spurgeon or Seth Jones, we have a concrete trade option in Hamonic.

  33. Woodguy says:

    I see some parallels between Reinhart and DrySaddle.

    Both dominated the ice at the WHL level and their size vis-a-vi their competition had a lot to do with that.

    They both got to the NHL and didn’t replicate their WHL prowess.

    Word has it that Reinhart is in better shape now than he was at any time with the Isles.

    He still needs to become a stronger skater.

    Saddle worked on his leg strength and skating all summer and now skates to places on the ice where he can be DrySaddle whereas in the WHL he didn’t have to work nearly as hard to find open ice.

    I think now that Reinhart is in athlete shape he’d do well to do what Saddle did and spend an entire summer on skating.

    I bet he’d improve a lot, he’s not clumsy on his skates by any means for a man his size.

    I like Davidson more right now and its mostly because Davidson has “skating the puck out of danger and occasionally skating it into the ozone” in his toolbox and Reinhart doesn’t.

    I be he could add that though.

    Hope he does.

  34. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer:
    v4ance,

    I don’t know if I agree with your assessment.Snow knows that chances of a trade with Wpg, Calgary, and Wild are slim. He sees the Oilers sitting in last place again and maybe he thought he would get the fan base riled up to put pressure on the team.It definitely has put Chia in the spotlight and if he goes to another team the lack of not putting a deal together will be analyzed for a long time by this fan base.

    I would tend to agree with you.

    I don’t know the Isles roster like at all, but going public stating that he has requested a trade for personal reasons and that they want a Hamonic replacement is actually brilliant.

    First, it makes it painfully obvious to every GM in that area that he’s available. We still hear of players being traded and other GM’s later complaining that they didn’t know that player was available.

    Further to that point, it conveniently explains why a 25-year-old top pairing RHS dman on a reasonable contract is available in the first place.

    It also sets the market.

    If they are interested in a potential deal with the Oilers, which they are because the Oilers while a shitty team, have lots of desirable players and assets (also because Snow already undressed Chiarelli on the Reinhart deal), they’re actually taking away the Oilers leverage since they don’t have what the Islanders have stated the want (top pairing RHS dman).

    Contrary to V4ance, Snow has leverage and has set up his auction. It also puts pressure on Chiarelli via the fan base per lead farmer.

  35. frjohnk says:

    G Money:
    *** NERD ALERT ***

    My look at the numbers on Hamonic.

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/11/19/hamonic-the-real-goods-the-numbers-say-yes/

    Excellent, excellent analysis.

  36. stush18 says:

    I gotta say I completely and vehemently disagree with you LT, about everything you’ve ever said.

    Actually I just disagree about your thoughts on Reinhart.

    I don’t see what sets slepy ahead of him in terms of being a prospect. And that’s coming from the guy who thought slepy would make the team with little AHL time.

    He’s cracked a crowded position, and has dragged grubs(I like this nickname) to even possession. He’s even doing better away from him. I don’t think we can really say nurse is the more significant prospect yet. I would love to see nurse and Reinhart switch spots; I think we would see interesting results.

  37. Woodguy says:

    @DKingBH @alanhull @MacSapintosh
    Reinhart w/ Gryba 42.9% CF (121min)
    Reinhart w/o Gryba 57.6% CF (30min)

    Small samples and all but Lordy.

    Thanks for posting the WOWY LT.

    I hadn’t looked recently.

    Wow indeed.

  38. Pouzar says:

    Bakersfield Condors Retweeted
    Ryan Holt ‏@CondorsHolty Nov 18
    November for Laurent Brossoit: 4-0-0 with a 0.98 GAA and a .970 save%.

  39. v4ance says:

    Woodguy,

    Snow’s main leverage was that he had a young established top 4 D on a fabulous contract that he needed to trade but no one knew who they were bidding against.

    If EDM thought they needed to beat a possible Ryan Murray offer from CBJ or a Shattenkirk offer from STL, they’d could be encouraged to offer more. Now that EDM knows it’s mainly them and WPG, CAL and VAN, they can feel okay that they might only have to offer Schultz+ to get it done.

  40. Johnny skid says:

    Pouzar:
    Bakersfield Condors RetweetedRyan Holt ‏@CondorsHoltyNov 18
    November for Laurent Brossoit: 4-0-0 with a 0.98 GAA and a .970 save%.

    do you think the flames regret trading him?

  41. leadfarmer says:

    v4ance,

    I’m sure he’s had discussions with those GMs and hasn’t received an offer that is anywhere near acceptable to him because most of those teams are set on D or don’t have cap room. By making this public he puts a lot of pressure on our perennial cellar dweller team that really needs him and at the same time explaining to his fan base why he just traded his best d man and for less than full value.

  42. Pouzar says:

    Johnny skid: do you think the flames regret trading him?

    they will

  43. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: No one wanted to be known as “the guy who traded away the kid who broke Stamko’s OHL rookie scoring record”

    Button said he was the next Bure.

    Trading Bure for a bunch of picks ( most that have no chance of panning out) would have been disastrous for Tambo and the team. He couldn’t make that trade.

    But then again if its Valeri Bure for all those picks……..

  44. Woodguy says:

    v4ance:
    Woodguy,

    Snow’s main leverage was that he had a young established top 4 D on a fabulous contract that he needed to trade but no one knew who they were bidding against.

    If EDM thought they needed to beat a possible Ryan Murray offer from CBJ or a Shattenkirk offer from STL, they’d could be encouraged to offer more.Now that EDM knows it’s mainly them and WPG, CAL and VAN, they can feel okay that they might only have to offer Schultz+ to get it done.

    Meh, I’m not sure I buy that.

    The first thing I do if I’m a GM and find out that Hamonic is available is that I find out why.

    The NHL more resembles a knitting circle than the CIA so finding out wouldn’t be tough.

  45. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: Button said he was the next Bure.

    Trading Bure for a bunch of picks ( most that have no chance of panning out) would have been disastrous for Tambo and the team.He couldn’t make that trade.

    But then again if its Valeri Bure for all those picks……..

    It would be worth it because Candace Cameron AMIRITE!?!?!?!?!

  46. Woodguy says:

    Johnny skid: do you think the flames regret trading him?

    MacT:

    Amateur evaluator extraordinaire.

    Pro evaluator el torro poopoo.

  47. square_wheels says:

    Woodguy,

    Agree. Before we get too excited about Hamonic we best find out what the risk is.

    However, my nightmare always ends with a MacT presser about how the Isles demanded a RHS D and he said no fucking chance you can have our Norris potential Jultz.

    I wake up screaming Petry!!!!!!

  48. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    I’d go pay what it takes to get him now. That includes any players other than 25 & 77 & 2 (our current Top 3 D – can’t weaken this group, makes no sense to do that) and 4, 93, 28, and 97.

    You like Korpikoski that much eh?

  49. bassguy says:

    ok, I actually called this a few years ago?…..I think the best move mact did was to trade smid for LB…all I am saying but I remember how great he played for the oil kings and I was so happy he did this trade or exchange or whatever

  50. spoiler says:

    If the Chia manages to pull LT’s mythical 3 for 1 trade, three minor pieces for one big one, I think we will hear… MUSIC!!

    In which case we will have to call him “Harmonic”.

  51. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    Sigh. It’s a Finn thing.

  52. flyfish1168 says:

    Johnny skid: do you think the flames regret trading him?

    I hope they do and I hope Laurent shuts out the F^**^ Phlegms everytime he plays them

  53. G Money says:

    Stelio Kontos (Formerly Zangetsu-Formerly Thinker): Right, but what are his RickiStats?

    Busted! My rickistats calc is implemented for this year (using data I scrape directly from the NHL). But I can’t do cumulative stats yet, only game by game.

    I can do cumulative stats on last years data which is sourced from war-on-ice … but no rickistats!

    DAMMIT STELIO, I’M A PROGRAMMER, NOT A MAGICIAN!

  54. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Woodguy,

    Sigh.It’s a Finn thing.

    I get that.

  55. jp says:

    RexLibris: If we project Reinhart as 2nd pairing D, could Davidson be much further behind him, or even at the same level?

    Davidson has definitely looked good, but I have two problems with this rationale.

    1) We’re PROJECTING Reinhart to be a 2nd pairing guy. He’s not one now, and there’s a chance he never will be.

    2) Davidson is 2.5 yrs older than Reinhart and much closer to a finished product. We shouldn’t expect as much growth in his game as we do from Griffin.

    It would be amazing if Davidson could be a top 4 D, but I’d be more than happy if he could become a consistent positive effect on the 3rd pairing,

  56. Ice Sage says:

    bassguy:
    ok, I actually called this a few years ago?…..I think the best move mact did was to trade smid for LB…all I am saying but I remember how great he played for the oil kings and I was so happy he did this trade or exchange or whatever

    MacSquirrel found a nut, Oil King bust meme might be broken with Reinhart and Broissoit

  57. spoiler says:

    G Money:
    Woodguy,

    Sigh.It’s a Finn thing.

    Speaking of… I was talking to a goalie buddy during the game last night–and apologies if this is common knowledge–but he says the reason why Finland is such a strong goalie factory is because their equivalent of top kids teams all have dedicated fulltime goalie coaches.

    So they are getting taught properly from the time they’re in “Peewee AA”. I know mentors are used, and there are of course goalie schools in the summer, but I hadn’t heard of anything on the same level being done here. Admittedly it’s been almost ten years since I was around minor hockey.

  58. Johnny skid says:

    flyfish1168: I hope the do and I hopeLaurent shuts the F^**^ Phlegms every time he plays them

    i am so looking forward to it.

  59. Rondo says:

    #2 is too expensive for NYI they would not be interested in him.

  60. bassguy says:

    Ice Sage,

    haha,,,,,wouldn’t that be great!

  61. Halfwise says:

    Wouldn’t Jultz do better on the East, for the same reasons that we are cautious about eastern conference D out here?

    We’ll have to wait until Jultz is off the IR.

  62. bassguy says:

    just the narrative about trading nuge for no1 D?…jasons show this aft…at the end of the season or whatever..what a huge mistake as nuge does so much more than people think or know…how do you trade a pavel..you cant and you should not..he helps the turn north so much?, mike

  63. Numenius says:

    Snow doesn’t want picks, but maybe he’d do a deal centered around our unprotected 1st (+ other assets) to trade for a D-man from any other team in the league.

    A pick is like money. You can more easily buy something else you want with it.

  64. jp says:

    Jordan:
    I like Griffin.But right now, he’s exposed as a player who can’t handle more than the dregs in this league.He’s not experienced enough.

    The reason Davidson looks good?He’s had years to hone his craft and develop.Reinhart may not need that much time, but he surely needs more.

    No knock on him – every player is different – just the facts right now – he’s over his head on this team.

    Did you watch the Chicago game?

    Reinhart-Davidson played a wonderful game.

    Incidentally, it was Reinhart’s first full game away from Gryba.

    I don’t think it would be terrible to give him some more time on the farm, but saying unequivocally that he’s “in over his head” just isn’t fair imo. At least without seeing him for a spell with a partner who can move/lug the puck just a little.

  65. Pouzar says:

    Jimmy Murphy ‏@MurphysLaw74 46m46 minutes ago
    Am told by NHL source that if Flames want Travis Hamonic it’s going to take Dougie Hamilton or T.J. Brodie. The former definitely a no!

    Jimmy Murphy ‏@MurphysLaw74 44m44 minutes ago
    Also hearing the Oilers may be willing to part with Justin Schultz for Travis Hamonic but not sure that would do it.

  66. Water Fire says:

    Reinhart sucks.

    With that out of the way, there is something missing from the goalie conversation.

    The Big Kahunas are going to reduce goaler enhancements again. So if we aren’t happy with the goalers, and we certainly aren’t with the gaolers, the question becomes what type of tutor will be better?

    The big man thing is based on large equipment and blocking space and no time to shoot.

    If the equipment means movement regains importance being slower is a hindrance.

    Could make Broissoit important as a shorter player – ie quicker. Would make the comp now between reaction time and correct net depth, as opposed to just being big in the net.

  67. Pouzar says:

    Water Fire: Could make Broissoit important as a shorter player

    He’s 6’3″

  68. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar:
    Jimmy Murphy ‏@MurphysLaw7446m46 minutes ago
    Am told by NHL source that if Flames want Travis Hamonic it’s going to take Dougie Hamilton or T.J. Brodie. The former definitely a no!

    Jimmy Murphy ‏@MurphysLaw7444m44 minutes ago
    Also hearing the Oilers may be willing to part with Justin Schultz for Travis Hamonic but not sure that would do it.

    Brodie is a top 20 Dman in the NHL.

    I hope CAL trades him away.

    Even if its for Hamonic.

    Less Brodie the better for the Oilers.

  69. geowal says:

    Centre of attention:
    Tobias with another assist tonight.

    *weeps quietly*

    Him and Drai could of been our Duo of Dangling Dutchmen!

    I don’t think Dutchmen means what you think it means.

  70. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    You really believe that Brodie is better than Hamonic?

  71. Stelio Kontos says:

    geowal: I don’t think Dutchmen thinks what you think it means.

    There’s two things I hate. People who are intolerant of other cultures, and the Dutch.

  72. Numenius says:

    I’m still concerned about Klefbom’s injury susceptibility, so I might be willing to part with him for Hamonic.

    But only if the injury concern is sufficiently based in reality.

  73. jp says:

    G Money:
    *** NERD ALERT ***

    My look at the numbers on Hamonic.

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/11/19/hamonic-the-real-goods-the-numbers-say-yes/

    Looks like a solid player. That’s a nice group of defensemen the Isles have.

    If the Oil could get him their D corps has a real projectable look for a bunch of years:
    Nurse-Sekera
    Klefbom-Hamonic
    Reinhart-Schultz
    Davidson

    Re: your game charts. I do like the player CF% totals and TOI add.

    And have you thought of doing DFF for the forwards/lines? Is Eberle really a perimeter player? 🙂

  74. G Money says:

    jp: Re: your game charts. I do like the player CF% totals and TOI add.
    And have you thought of doing DFF for the forwards/lines? Is Eberle really a perimeter player?

    Thanks! You know, I actually calculate and show the DFF for all players, all D pairs, and all forward lines. I included all that info at first, but man its a lot of data! So I started culling it back to just the highest value add info in the post itself. All of the entire data set is available in the data files link at the end of the post.

    And that last game, the DFF was *not* a fan of poor Ebs. His CF% was 56% but his DFF% dropped all the way to 40%! And that was with the sick goal that he scored.

  75. GCW_69 says:

    Great line in the comments section on TSN for the Hamonic article:

    The Oilers have a history of believing they don’t need defence men. They have the lottery picks to prove it.

  76. jp says:

    G Money,

    Cool. I must have missed (or forgotten about) your earlier posts. I hear you about the volume of data. I’ll start looking at the downloads.

    And sorry I asked about Eberle, I never imagined he was team-worst!

  77. Frank the dog says:

    One cardinal rule I believe we all need to take into account: Chia will not trade away the future. I’m sure he’ll want Hamonoc but look to underperformers which llikely wont attract Snow unless Choa sees Schultz in that category.
    I dought he’s trading the #1 pick, its lilely hi last high #1 for a while. If he keeps Yak with CMc the we are probably looking at a 3 scoring line unicorn

    Iagree that Klef, Nurse, Sekera, Reinhart, Davidson are looking like they will develop into a strong rotation of a top 4. I don’t know how giggly the really regard Schulz
    I trust Chia’s judgement on that, he sure helps our offence and I have realm been impressed at how he steppe up his d this year.
    So if we have 6 players that could play top 4 next year, as nice as hamonic would be, not sure that he’s worth the asking price.
    Improving the team this year at the expense of the future has little to mo value to Choa.
    And mt goodness they are turning into that team before our very eyes.
    I think the two Macs pit Yak back together again. His slapshot id a barometer of his confidence and he’s really picked up the red of his game.

  78. Frank the dog says:

    Pouzar:
    Jimmy Murphy ‏@MurphysLaw7446m46 minutes ago
    Am told by NHL source that if Flames want Travis Hamonic it’s going to take Dougie Hamilton or T.J. Brodie. The former definitely a no!

    Jimmy Murphy ‏@MurphysLaw7444m44 minutes ago
    Also hearing the Oilers may be willing to part with Justin Schultz for Travis Hamonic but not sure that would do it.

    I can almost see Chia trading Achultz for Hamonic especially of Schultz has back problems.

  79. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Woodguy,

    You really believe that Brodie is better than Hamonic?

    Yes

  80. PhrankLee says:

    Woodguy: I like Davidson more right now and its mostly because Davidson has “skating the puck out of danger and occasionally skating it into the ozone” in his toolbox and Reinhart doesn’t.
    I be he could add that though.
    Hope he does.

    He has that. He is not able to do much about it while propping up Gryba. ANyone thinking they put GR with Gryba so GR can learn from a vet is being nostalgic.

    GR is with Gryba to keep him above water.

    WaterFire I take exception with your statement that GR sucks. I suspect you are not seeing what you think you are seeing. And how old is this prospect? How long does it usually take to develop a top 4 D?

    I will tell you: 300 games. At least. This isn’t learning to clear snow with a skid steer in the Co-Op parking lot.

    It’s playing the most complicated position in the world of hockey. NHL D.

  81. Johnny skid says:

    PhrankLee: He has that. He is not able to do much about it while propping up Gryba. ANyone thinking they put GR with Gryba so GR can learn from a vet is being nostalgic.

    GR is with Gryba to keep him above water.

    WaterFire I take exception with your statement that GR sucks. I suspect you are not seeing what you think you are seeing. And how old is this prospect? How long does it usually take to develop a top 4 D?

    I will tell you: 300 games. At least.This isn’t learning to clear snow with a skid steer in the Co-Op parking lot.

    It’s playing the most complicated position in the world of hockey. NHL D.

    i agree completely on your g.reinhart assessment but your skid steer analogy sure made me laugh.

  82. blainer says:

    stush18:
    I gotta say I completely and vehemently disagree with you LT,about everything you’ve ever said.

    Actually I just disagree about your thoughts on Reinhart.

    I don’t see what sets slepy ahead of him in terms of being a prospect. And that’s coming from the guy who thought slepy would make the team with little AHL time.

    He’s cracked a crowded position, and has dragged grubs(I like this nickname) to even possession. He’s even doing better away from him. I don’t think we can really say nurse is the more significant prospect yet. I would love to see nurse and Reinhart switch spots; I think we would see interesting results.

    I would have brossoit ahead of both of them.

  83. blainer says:

    Pouzar:
    Bakersfield Condors RetweetedRyan Holt ‏@CondorsHoltyNov 18
    November for Laurent Brossoit: 4-0-0 with a 0.98 GAA and a .970 save%.

    Wow just Wow !! Think the oilers could use a goalie like that !!

  84. Pouzar says:

    blainer: Wow just Wow !! Think the oilers could use a goalie like that !!

    Yes please!

    Going to be at Moose-Condor game tonight. Please tell me Brossoit is starting!

  85. blainer says:

    Pouzar: Yes please!

    Going to be at Moose-Condor game tonight. Please tell me Brossoit is starting!

    Wow I’m jealous. Live on the rock and they don’t play here unless its for the Calder championship !!

  86. oliveoilers says:

    What do the Flames need with Hamonic?

    Don’t they already have The NHL’s Best Defence(TM)?

  87. Pouzar says:

    Don’t look now but our boy Ziyat Paigin has 6 points in 8 games since being traded to HC Sochi.

    Check out his last game. 1 goal, 1 Asst on 6 shots

    http://en.khl.ru/players/18686/

  88. Pouzar says:

    blainer: Wow I’m jealous. Live on the rock and they don’t play here unless its for the Calder championship !!

    Yer in NL?

    Now I’m jealous!

  89. blainer says:

    Pouzar: Yer in NL?

    Now I’m jealous!

    LOL.. as bad as the weather is here I wouldn’t trade for your winters.. But for the snow..

    Also the social life takes its toll on your life expectancy..

  90. Pouzar says:

    blainer: LOL.. as bad as the weather is here I wouldn’t trade for your winters.. But for the snow..

    Also the social life takes its toll on your life expectancy..

    Peg summers are awesome though. Love warm weather but I’d rather be home on the Rock.
    Hate the time zone for sports though.

    When I retire will probably be looking at relocating to Southern Ontario. Good friends/family down there and it’s obviously the perfect travel hub.

  91. blainer says:

    Pouzar: Peg summers are awesome though. Love warm weather but I’d rather be home on the Rock.
    Hate the time zone for sports though.

    When I retire will probably be looking at relocating to Southern Ontario. Good friends/family down there and it’s obviously the perfect travel hub.

    Yup got family there too. great spot good wine.. great place to retire I bet..

  92. blainer says:

    Pouzar: Peg summers are awesome though. Love warm weather but I’d rather be home on the Rock.
    Hate the time zone for sports though.

    When I retire will probably be looking at relocating to Southern Ontario. Good friends/family down there and it’s obviously the perfect travel hub.

    Your being from here is funny as we are so like minded on the Oilers. When I read your posts its like I posted them. Really quite funny to me.

    Also some of your posts are hilarious !! keep er goin..

  93. Pouzar says:

    blainer: Your being from here is funny as we are so like minded on the Oilers. When I read your posts its like I posted them. Really quite funny to me.

    Also some of your posts are hilarious !! keep er goin..

    Thx man will do!

  94. Sugar Reijo says:

    Johnny skid: do you think the flames regret trading him?

    Given Ferland’s absence being deemed the equivalent of missing, “a 30-goal scorer or your best defenceman,” what are Smid’s intangibles and pain threshold worth?

  95. Gay Leno says:

    LT-minor edit

    in the recap of the 2012 draft you have reinhart listed as no. 4 winter prospect

  96. Sugar Reijo says:

    Woodguy: MacT:

    Pro evaluator el torro poopoo.

    That is an embossed business card just waiting to happen. Chia could have some fancy letterheads with that printed up at the same time and then just go ahead and scratch Craiggers off his Xmas shopping list.

    Would give him that much more time to clean up the mess MacT left him with.

    Well done, Woodguy!

  97. Lowetide says:

    Gay Leno:
    LT-minor edit

    in the recap of the 2012 draft you have reinhart listed as no. 4 winter prospect

    Gack! I wrote both Slepy and Griffin Reinhart as No. 4 and then asked an expert. Thought I’d cleaned it all up! Thanks!

  98. maxwell_mischief says:

    Griff looked like a monster against Chicago, I thought he had an awesome game. The penalty on Shaw was a garbage call (sidebar- shaw also went face first into the boards on a long stretch pass later in the game, which I thought was quite funny). He made a few plays with the puck, where he held onto it, got out of trouble and made a short, smart pass to move the group forward. He was big (in more than just stature) and filled lanes, and used his stick well. Looked like a real presence.
    I think the Oilers have a player here.
    I would have loved Samsonov as an Oiler prospect sure, or maybe Barzal yayayaya, thisguythatguy blahblahblah
    mostly I am happy the Oilers have Nurse, Klefbom, Reinhart moving forward.

  99. Kevin McCartney says:

    I know you always say to separate the price from the player, LT, but I just can’t on Reinhart. For me, this is a classic Oilers trade for a classic Chiarelli Bruin. It’s an impulse buy that solves yesterday’s problems on the one hand, and delivers a player fitted to a more methodical team on the other. The broad outline looks good – draft picks for a still young player with pedigree at a position of need. Brilliant. And yet, all the details of the trade reveal Reinhart to be an ill fit, never mind a poor trade acquisition.

    The team is swimming in left handed defenders at every level of the system, including their two highest ranked defensive prospects AND the big ticket FA Chia was clearly targeting (and secured). The NHL is moving toward speed-based defending so aggressively that we can’t be sure there is a place for this player type by the time this particular player emerges. Players with pedigree are more difficult to control contractually (can demand more money, have higher profiles, usually hit the NHL and thus UFA earlier). So if you’re trying to fill your 4th-LD spot, guys like Davidson, Marincin, Laleggia, Musil, Simpson, Osterle, Betker (all left handed…) make a lot more sense.

    When I watch this player, I see a ceiling somewhere close to Mark Fayne in a league where Mark Fayne may not have a job within a couple years through no fault of the player. On draft day, the scouting reports focused entirely on his offensive game and puck skills. After the Memorial Cup, the talk is of his defensive transition play. Those are arguably his worst qualities at the NHL level. He remains good 1-on-1, well balanced, strong enough to push Hossa off a puck (which is very strong). I see a scouting profile that matches Braydon Coburn, only with worse lateral mobility and no capacity to play net-to-corner and corner-to-net. He will get better, he will add speed and strength. But I see the Oilers trying to get a player to play with Petry and with Gilbert before him. I see Chiarelli getting a player Claude Julien will love pairing with Dougie Hamilton in a few years.

    What I don’t see is a top-4 defender on a competitive team coached by Todd McLellan. In which case, the most immediate reality for this player is his price. The questions become, why get him? and why sacrifice so much of the organization’s potential depth outside the NHL? The fact that neither of those have clear answers makes the player – not just the price – a mistake.

    I think the organization is a lot better off if #5 on this list is not another left handed defenceman with “it’s not certain that future will be in Edmonton” in his write up (appropriately).

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