THIS MUCH MADNESS IS TOO MUCH SORROW

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers will return Justin Schultz to the lineup in the coming days, and it presents Peter Chiarelli with an opportunity. My guess is they’ll send Griffin Reinhart to the minors, or maybe they IR Eric Gryba, but there’s still some discovery to come and Schultz is part of that process.

FRIDAY NIGHT BLUES

oil nov 20 d

This is Friday night, apologies for the NJ lines but it seems Cammalleri was playing on two lines. The Oilers TOI at evens isn’t really indicative of overall play, it was a big night for special teams. Still, the fact that EV leaders were Darnell Nurse and Brandon Davidson is a tell, so we should acknowledge an unusual evening for the rookies.

I like the rookie pairing of Davidson—Reinhart more than Anything—Gryba, but PC needs to be aiming higher and the impending Schultz arrival gives him an opportunity to do it. If we assume that Todd McLellan would like to run fewer rookies, and that Darnell Nurse is his best one, then it’s possible we see the new V6 like this:

  • Klefbom—Fayne
  • Nurse—Sekera
  • Davidson—Schultz

With Gryba and Ference as the sitters and Griffin Reinhart in the minor leagues. That’s probably best case scenario, although I suspect Chiarelli (or someone) is pushing hard on the Gryba usage and that could lead to this:

  • Sekera—Fayne
  • Klefbom—Schultz
  • Nurse—Gryba

I really don’t like that, for tons of reasons. First, Klefbom is free to wheel without Schultz, and if there’s one thing these games have shown it’s that the Swede has a wider range of skills than implied when alongside Schultz. The other item is this: The higher you play Justin Schultz in the lineup, the more you see chaos. I understand he was more controlled early this season, but Edmonton is more settled in the top four D now than they have been in some time.

You will read this week that Mark Fayne is not a good NHL defenseman, and that Justin Schultz has led the Oilers in TOI since pretty much the moment he got here, so why not give him his usage back! To both, I say it’s madness. Justin Schultz was asked to do too much and one hopes Todd McLellan employs Sekera and Fayne in feature roles RH side, with Schultz on the third pairing. Allow him to get comfortable and force his way up the depth chart. It’s the right thing to do.

chiarelli capture draft

HAMONIC

  • Jeff Simmons: Ideally, the Islanders would love to acquire ascending young defenceman Darnell Nurse in a trade but a more realistic scenario could involve a package including forward Jordan Eberle and defenceman Justin Schultz. Source

I don’t know that the Oilers can make a trade like the one suggested, the candidates among forwards (Strome, Okposo) have their own issues. Elliotte Friedman’s comment about a three-way trade makes sense, but I still believe this ends up Hamonic in Minnesota.

nurse condors

CONDORS GAME DAY

Lots of chatter on the blog about ‘no prospects of note in the AHL beyond Brossoit’ and I get that, but it’s also true that there are performances worthy of your consideration. Among the forward group, and I always look for even-strength scoring as the purest way to suss things out, we are seeing some players emerge:

  1. Josh Winquist 8GP, 3-3-6 (.75 points-per-game)
  2. Jujhar Khaira 14GP, 3-3-6 (.43 points-per-game)
  3. Alexis Loiseau 7GP, 1-2-3 (.43 points-per-game)
  4. Kale Kessy 12GP, 2-3-5 (.42 points-per-game)
  5. Mitchell Moroz 14GP, 2-3-5 (.36 points-per-game)
  6. Bogdan Yakimov 12GP, 2-2-4 (.33 points-per-game)
  7. Marco Roy 3GP, 1-0-1 (.33 points-per-game)

This pulls all of the power-play points away (none of these men are going to be on an NHL PP in the near or likely distant future) and gives us some idea about their overall offensive quality in the fairest available way. So, first up is a guy the Oilers didn’t draft and haven’t signed, Josh Winquist. That’s so Oilers! He looks like a legit prospect from here, his skating must be the issue because in talking to scouts they rave about his ability to play the actual game.

Alexis Loiseau is another of those free-agent signings and—this is early days—we do see a spark from him offensively. Jujhar Khaira is in his second pro season and some are touting him as an emerging offensive talent, but we have a fairly large book on him that suggests otherwise. These kids can fool us, but I think it’s best to have him show something like >.7 even-strength points-per-game over a season before we begin to project him into the NHL for anything beyond a cup of coffee.

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Lackadaisical

Ryan: In that regard, it sounds like DFA might suffer from the same curse as Staples’ numbers. i.e. small dataset that its swayed heavily by QOT, QOC, and zone starts.

For years, we heard two opposing views on Ryan Jones.Staples who would laud him for his responsible 2 way play as reflected by his Staples numbers and everyone else especially Woodguy who derided him for flying the zone or cheating for offense.

It’s always nice to see if stats pass the smell test and from what I’ve seen of your data for the Oilers, on the whole, it seems to fit with what we see.

As far as using that same smell test for the Islanders, the only context that I have is Lubo who is an old favorite of mine though anything but a defensive Stalwart.

The *old / obsolete / derided* Vollman instantly shows Hamonic as playing the most TOI/60 against the hardest competition with pretty much the worst zone starts on his team while still posting a positive Corsi (spits).

The *shiny / new / innovative / cutting-edge* Danger fenwick shows Hamonic as a player who’s getting his lunch fed to him by a guy as old as me who’s a career offenseman.

?

I appreciate what you’re saying, but I’d offer counterpoint that has already probably been discussed here (so I hope I’m not piling on).
Contextualised dfa/60 seems like it’s a legitimate stat moving forward- G money is on to something, I recommend reading his work!

Professor Q

blainer: Ha!! Talk about sticking with the hot hand..

Went to the ice caps game Friday night.

Jeebus that McCarron kid .. what a prospectthe habs have coming there. Massive center and dominated possession the whole time he was on the ice.. and 6″6 231 pounds and a point per game at the age of 20.

Sounds a lot like Yak2 but better and healthy.

If his brother had stuck with Edmonton’s plans, and that proposed trade for Hamonic and Strome worked out, Edmonton could potentially have been a hub for the “other” siblings of the NHL with Jones and Reinhart, too (etc.?).

GCW_69

Lewis Grant:
the candidates among forwards (Strome, Okposo) have their own issues.

Apologies if someone already answered this: What are their issues (especially in Strome’s case)?Isn’t Strome about to go supernova?He had 50 points last year.

He’s off to a rough start this season and was sent down to the AHL. It’s a really strong forward group there in NY. That said, his possession numbers have been strong regardless of his scoring and a number of Islander bloggers seemed to disagree with the demotion.

The forward choices for the Oilers coming back in an Eberle + trade are Okposo, Bailey and Strome. I don’t think Okposo is a good fit as a pending free agent, and while Bailey is the safer option, Strome has more upside and worst case probably slots in nicely as a third line centre.

AsiaOil

The trade I’d be most comfortable with is Yak and Shultz for Hamonic and Clutterbuck (included for cap purposes). NYI upgrades RW and downgrades D – we upgrade D and downgrade RW. Salaries basically balance and all are under control for the next year and a half at least. Not a big Clutterbuck fan but he only has one year left after this season and would add some nasty to the bottom six.

Only other deal is a 3 way with MINN and NYI:

To Minn: Yakopov

To NYI: Spurgeon

To EDM: Hamonic

But Spurgeon and NYI may not be a match either since they didn’t sign him after being drafted by the Isles in 2008.

Gayfish

This is getting ridiculous. (The football game).

LadiesloveSmid

Lewis Grant:
the candidates among forwards (Strome, Okposo) have their own issues.

Apologies if someone already answered this: What are their issues (especially in Strome’s case)?Isn’t Strome about to go supernova?He had 50 points last year.

Would Strome the asset not be better than Eberle the asset? At least from Edmonton’s perspective.

NYI building around JT, EDM around McD. NYI could use a top line winger in his prime, Edmonton could use a future top line RW under team control longer and maybe cheaper.

Lewis Grant

the candidates among forwards (Strome, Okposo) have their own issues.

Apologies if someone already answered this: What are their issues (especially in Strome’s case)? Isn’t Strome about to go supernova? He had 50 points last year.

blainer

sliderule:
blainer,
You have to be kidding .
Leon was skating circles around most nearly everybody last spring
He didn’t go to power skating and become what he is now.He was already there ..
Just don’t read about it watch hockey.

I’m not saying he’s anywhere near as good as drai. I am only saying he is looking a lot like Drai now Of course Drai was better last spring and STILL is.

What I am saying his stride and puck protection are also similar.

he has also really grown as player ..like Drai in the last couple of months.
This is not a debate over Drai being better than McCarron.

Wow I guess I never made that clear enough.

What I am saying is the habs have one helluva prospect..

Anyway.. moving on from that topic now..

John Chambers

sliderule,

No, straight up it’s not a fair trade. But I think it would make Edm a better possession team with one less finisher, but we do have a surplus of finishers, so even though Eberle should have superior trade value I think the deal would make Edm a more competitive team.

Hamonic is a darned-near perfect fit. His contract is also long and cheap.

If for example Eberle and Davidson for Hamonic and Strome went down I think we win the trade.

Can’t ignore the value of the cap space savings.

Adam Wu

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:

Love thy neighbour just doesn’t seem to apply anymore and it makes me sad. The civility displayed here should be the rule, yet sadly it is the exception.

Some people have trouble conceptualizing the pseudononymous entity producing the printed words that appear on their computer screens as a neighbour.

Also, in so-called meatspace, there are potential consequences for uncivil behaviour that may include a punch in the face, which tends to moderate at least some of those who struggle to moderate themselves.

If you go back far enough, nearly all our various codes of civil conduct arose from the need of ancient humans to gather in groups and get stuff accomplished without things degenerating into gigantic brawls most of the time.

John Chambers

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

True. But Willis is a big boy and I doubt the incoherent ranting of some toothless hicks bothers him.

Whenever someone gets overly aggressive on the blogosphere I just think: “poor them – they are trying to derive pleasure from being confrontational and rude”

So it goes

sliderule

John Chambers,

John
Do you think Eberle for Hamonic is a fair trade.

I say that because i haven’t seen Hamonic all that much and fancy stats made Fayne look good.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

Amen. I agree completely.

Too often individuals use differences of opinion or interpretation as an opportunity to launch personal attacks. It is important to familiarize oneself with the concepts of epistemic humility and the principle of charity when engaging on the internet (and real life). Thanks goodness for lowetide.

Gayfish

Dr. Taboggan:
frjohnk,

Reading the comments section on that article made me cringe. Poor Willis. It amazes me how offensive people still find analytics or any numbers based analysis of players.

Analytics are BS. All I need to know is he has x goals, y assist, z +/-, a PIMs, b FO%, c Giveaways, d Shots. Don’t you dare talk to me about analytics.

frjohnk

Dr. Taboggan:
frjohnk,

Reading the comments section on that article made me cringe. Poor Willis. It amazes me how offensive people still find analytics or any numbers based analysis of players.

Willis says “From an analytics perspective, however, the question isn’t so much whether or not Calgary can afford him. It’s if the Flames should even want to keep him in the fold.”

And then gives a damning viewpoint by using analytics, which is pretty much 100% right.

Of course there are people who don’t like analytics or don’t like their favorite teams players being put into a bad light and will voice their own viewpoint but with no real substance.

Too bad cuz Willis is right. Defensively, Russell is a tire fire.

Dr. Taboggan:
frjohnk,

Reading the comments section on that article made me cringe. Poor Willis. It amazes me how offensive people still find analytics or any numbers based analysis of players.

The Internet has given rise to a whole class of bullies who hide behind keyboards or smartphones and say all kinds of hurtful things towards people.

It has also given rise to a whole class of people who would rather communicate through quotes from others that sound good, links to videos or articles, and “lol” style text messages with even their best friends or lovers rather than pick up the phone and say, “Hello. How are you? I just called to say I care about you.”

The emergence of these types of people has been so rapid and prevalent it hurts to think about. The people ripping Jon Willis there should be ashamed of themselves.

I feel old. I feel like a grandpa telling people to get off my lawn. But it pains me to see the direction things are going. Convenience and progress are wonderful things, but I don’t think the human condition is progressing enough to keep up without these changes becoming vehicles for the degradation of society.

Love thy neighbour just doesn’t seem to apply anymore and it makes me sad. The civility displayed here should be the rule, yet sadly it is the exception.

sliderule

blainer,
You have to be kidding .
Leon was skating circles around most nearly everybody last spring
He didn’t go to power skating and become what he is now.He was already there ..
Just don’t read about it watch hockey.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

frjohnk,

Reading the comments section on that article made me cringe. Poor Willis. It amazes me how offensive people still find analytics or any numbers based analysis of players.

frjohnk

Brian Burke should be happy about this article from young Willis

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/the-incredibly-overrated-kris-russell/

Pouzar

Slepy one-timer off the crossbar.

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

John Chambers

If you was Garth Snow would you rather have Matt Duchesne or Jordan Eberle?

Probably Duchesne as he’s a centre but Eberle and Tavares could be deadly.

Pouzar

jasperavenue:
There does not appear to be a direct flight from Minneapolis St Paul to Winnipeg.Doubt there will be one from Denver.

Delta Airlines says hi.

John Chambers

jasperavenue,

There are direct flights from both Denver and Minny to YWG.

Minnesota is actually the geographically closest city, about 700 km’s.

jasperavenue

There does not appear to be a direct flight from Minneapolis St Paul to Winnipeg. Doubt there will be one from Denver.

Pouzar

geowal: So chase on “top” line? Has he really climbed the depth chart that much since starting in ECHL, or is this the case of just some interesting line mixing?

Chase looked good Friday night. Really underrated set of mitts.

blainer

Pouzar:
Go figure. Hunt with the idiotic low % pinch leads to a 2 on 1.

2-1 Moose.

Yup. both goals against LB had no chance on..

Pouzar

Go figure. Hunt with the idiotic low % pinch leads to a 2 on 1.

2-1 Moose.

geowal

Pouzar:
Bakersfield Condors ‏@Condors33m33 minutes ago
FORWARDS:
Hamilton – Khaira – Chase
Loiseau – Miller – Slepyshev
Christoffer – Platzer – Kessy
Roy – Currie – Pageau

So chase on “top” line? Has he really climbed the depth chart that much since starting in ECHL, or is this the case of just some interesting line mixing?

Pouzar

lynn:
Khaira with 3 shots and 1 assist in the first period. Will never be a big scorer, but he is very good on the forecheck , good defensively and good on the PK. A good skater, too. He is versatile: centre or LWer.

IMO, he’ll have games in Rogers Place on the Oilers’ bottom 6.

Yup. He’s jumped Yakimov and I love me some Yak2. Injuries suck.

spoiler

The Hamonic rumour seemed pretty specific about Western Canada. I don’t really want to speculate but there maybe a border issue or Medicare or something confounding the situation. Really what is the difference if he’s flying into the Peg from Chitown over Minneapolis? Or even Vancouver over TO for that matter?

Centre of attention

Lowetide:
Slepyshev scores from Hamilton and Khaira 1-1

Was it a beauty?

Also, the amount of “trade Nuge” articles/tweets/comments on the interwebs lately is too damn high!

RexLibris,

Fate sees fit to have bad things happen to good people all the time. If the world were fair it would be a very different place. I’d still rather look in the mirror and know I am a good person even if life deals me blow after blow.

JD_Wry

RexLibris,

I thought you especially would get a kick out of that!

RexLibris

JDï™: I’m just glad I provide bloggers with something to comment on – because how sad their lives would be if they actually had to come up with their own material.

Wow.

Does anyone have the time to devote to showing Mr. Simmons how many bloggers have explored new and innovative topics in the world of the NHL over the last ten years?

I think Simmons is confusing quantity (which journalists are contractually obligated to produce and is a hallmark of their trade) to quality. These two are mutually exclusive, and no one is suggesting that the MSM produce all of one and none of the other, but to suggest that the blogging world does not produce any new material of their own and merely occupies itself with refuting everything he says is not only the height of self-aggrandizing delusion but also patently false and willfully ignorant.

Interesting that he doesn’t take any time to try and refute the argument, just tells the person commenting to go do some research and then shifts the conversation to the tired old underdog story.

Why fate saw fit to relieve so many good people at TSN of their jobs last week and leave this man employed is baffling, to say the least.

*edit – I realize Simmons doesn’t work for TSN*

lynn

Khaira with 3 shots and 1 assist in the first period. Will never be a big scorer, but he is very good on the forecheck , good defensively and good on the PK. A good skater, too. He is versatile: centre or LWer.

IMO, he’ll have games in Rogers Place on the Oilers’ bottom 6.

blainer

JDï™: An off-season with the Draisaitl leg program, and he’ll be difficult to send down next fall, if this keeps up.

#wecanhavenicethings

Yup. he is not gonna be in the minors much longer. he defiantly gets the next call up.. has to be. he stands out as the best player on the ice IMO.

Klima's_Bucket

blainer: The habs drafted McCarron at 25th overall in the first round. He is a point per game player at the same age as Drai and is playing fantasic..have you been watching his games lately? I have.

I’ve been watching him too…McCarron looks like the next Joe Colborne to me!

JD_Wry

blainer: Man is just me or does Khaira look like a load. He might just be the next call up ..

An off-season with the Draisaitl leg program, and he’ll be difficult to send down next fall, if this keeps up.

#wecanhavenicethings

LadiesloveSmid

Ethan Bear humming at over a point per game. 24P in 22GP.

Jones impressive too. 18P in 21GP.

Ziyat Paigin 7P in 9GP with Sochi. Wow. 8P in 17GP as a 20YO D in the KHL.

Despite 1 pick in the first 115, some picks are looking solid.

blainer

Lowetide:
Slepyshev scores from Hamilton and Khaira 1-1

Man is just me or does Khaira look like a load. He might just be the next call up ..

blainer

pocession charge: It was Cole Cassels who shadowed McDavid in that series and held him to a mere seven points in five games.

McCarron, as a player, is nothing like Draisaitl.He doesn’t have the passing and vision.Plays a pure power game.

Not saying McCarron is better than Drai. Drai is defiantly a better player now. I am saying they look similar in their skating and overall game. IMO.. I guess our opinions differ.

The habs drafted McCarron at 25th overall in the first round. He is a point per game player at the same age as Drai and is playing fantasic..have you been watching his games lately? I have.

He is no hunter Smith who may turn out to be good player as well. Although I consider Smith closer to Moroz.

LadiesloveSmid

If NYI swallows their pride on letting Spurgeon go and ignores his size(which reportedly is still an issue for them), then Hamonic for Spurgeon would eliminate two options for Edmonton in the future. Hope that doesn’t go down.

Let’s hope Schultz has some big games when he gets back

Gayfish

FOOTBALL!!!

blainer

1-0 moose on a perfectly converted two on one.

Material Elvis

blainer: Actually have to disagree. Have seen them both live and at ice level. They have a very similar stride and are good at protecting the puck. They are both good at the power game IMO.

Now Drai has jumped big time at the NHL level which is excellent but that McCarron kid is also an awesome prospect. And Huge.

Wasn’t sure on the OHL playoffs coverage. thanks for that.

McCarron is a good prospect, but nowhere near Draisaitl. He’s a bottom six forward on the Habs in two or three years from now if he’s lucky. Honestly, I don’t see any similarities between the two at this point because Draisaitl has so much more offensive ability and has dramatically improved his skating. McCarron is closer to Hunter Smith while Draisaitl is closer to Anze Kopitar or Joe Thornton.

G Money

Ryan: The *old / obsolete / derided* Vollman instantly shows Hamonic as playing the most TOI/60 against the hardest competition with pretty much the worst zone starts on his team while still posting a positive Corsi (spits).
The *shiny / new / innovative / cutting-edge* Danger fenwick shows Hamonic as a player who’s getting his lunch fed to him by a guy as old as me who’s a career offenseman.

So the key thing here is that CF% shows the overall balance of play, but the DFA is focusing specifically on the defensive side of the equation. DFA is mediocre for Hamonic but (IMO) pretty solid given who he faces every night.

DFF% actually ‘overconfirms’ the CF% – Hamonic’s DFF% goes up from CF% and from FF%, which means that not only are the Islanders moving the puck in the right direction when he’s on the ice, but the dangerous chances are even moreso in the Isles favour.

Rondo

Only way I see getting Harmonic is a 3- way trade. Oilers would trade a forward to some team

G Money

Ryan: In that regard, it sounds like DFA might suffer from the same curse as Staples’ numbers. i.e. small dataset that its swayed heavily by QOT, QOC, and zone starts.

Shouldn’t be the case. HDSCA (war on ice’s metric) does suffer from that problem because it drops big chunks of data to focus on the smaller set. Which makes it a useful dataset only as long as you use it in full context (i.e. you have to look at medium and low danger chances too).

DFA is built specifically to counteract that weakness. DFA drops no data, it only weights the data up or down based on distance and shot type. Otherwise, the underlying sample size is identical to regular Fenwick. So it’s a substantially larger sample size than HDSCA or Staples.