G21 2015-16: OILERS AT CAPITALS

by Lowetide

It all goes by so quickly. Connor McDavid looks like Opie’s older brother, like the middle kid on My Three Sons, like the kids who hung around with my son playing PS or Xbox on any given weekend when the entire gang was in high school. A few years down the line? Maturation, and for Oilers kids, extreme frustration. Turn north, Mr. Chiarelli, it’s the right thing to do. Make your trade on this road trip count, address the blue, bring clarity to the muddy 3 and 4 lines. Godspeed.

OILERS EARLY, SEASON OVER SEASON

  • Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
  • Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
  • Oilers in November 2015: 3-4-1
  • Oilers after 20 in 2014-15: 6-12-2, 14 points (-25 GD)
  • Oilers after 20 in 2015-16: 7-12-1, 15 points (-8 GD)

Game 21 a year ago? A loss. A 7-1 loss that featured your basic Blackhawks nightmare (Toews, Kane, Hossa) and it was a miserable evening. Click if you like, I’d pass.

OILERS FORWARDS IN A BOX

oil f's after 20

I don’t have to tell you about the pairs (Hall-Leon, Nuge-Eberle, McDavid-Yakupov), that’s what we’re all talking about everywhere. It’s also true that McDavid-Eberle is an interesting possibility, suspect Todd McLellan would like to run that for about 20 games. One thing we should probably talk about in December? Who gets the final spot on the skill lines:

  • Hall—Draisaitl—Purcell
  • Pouliot—McDavid—Yakupov
  • ???—Nuge—Eberle

I’d say Hendricks has the inside track at this point, but a strong run during December by Pakarinen or 10 Bakersfield goals from Slepyshev (scored yesterday, plus iron) could make things interesting. I’m still not buying three scoring lines or unicorns, but you can see the talent here when everyone’s healthy. Fun future ahead I expect, McLellan’s teams are usually highly watchable and this is a can’t miss group.

lander ferguson

We’re ‘after 20’ and it’s kind of fun to guess about who might make the cut and who isn’t going to, plus I’ll add a third category for possibles:

  • Mortal Locks (8): McDavid, Hall, Nuge, Draisaitl, Eberle, Pouliot, Yakupov, Hendricks
  • Down the Line (3): Lander, Gazdic, Miller
  • Call me Maybe (6): Purcell, Korpikoski, Pakarinen, Slepyshev, Klinkhammer, Letestu

I’ll tell you one guy on the cmb list who could find his way back: Teddy Purcell. He’s playing very well and has moved way up the table in some important categories. Skating really well, too. After 20, the one guy who went from my mortal lock list to down the line? Anton. Man, hurts to say it but he has the same issue as Magnum PS: Offense.

It goes without saying that one of the mortal locks could get moved out for a defender, so I’ll list ‘inner circle’ untouchables as McDavid, Hall, Nuge, Draisaitl and stop it there. In Gods we trust, all others could be catching a bus in Brooklyn just like the Duke did decades ago.

OILERS BLUE IN A BOX

oil d's after 20

The information for these items comes fro BTN (5×5, 5×4, Rel), HockeyAnalysis.com (5x5CF) and War-on-Ice (On-Ice SC). I think we were all reminded of their exceptional value the other night, that’s a lot of work brought to our collective doorsteps free of charge. Let’s run the ‘after 20’ for this bunch.

  • Mortal Locks (3): Klefbom, Sekera, Nurse
  • Down the Line (2): Gryba, Ference
  • Call me Maybe (4): Davidson, Fayne, Schultz, Reinhart

Among the call me maybe’s, I’d pull back Fayne then Davidson then Reinhart, but understand many would not have that order. Davidson is a fascinating player in this group, literally no idea if he’s as he looks. I think the Oilers have 62 more games and he should be in most of them. Seriously. Need to find out. My inner circle for blue rhymes with the mortal locks above.

grebs

SHOWCASE

Since forever really, an Oilers road trip meant showcasing some player or another. You head east with 23, and come back with the rights to Denis Grebeshkov. Any spike in playing time might be a tell, or sudden insertion into the lineup, tips the hand of our local GM. Justin Schultz will be activated on this trip and I do wonder about Mark Fayne’s future in Edmonton—he would have value out east and is playing well now (or at least most of us believe he’s playing well). If I’m making a list of ‘most likely to be traded on this road trip’ it would go like this:

  1. Justin Schultz
  2. Mark Fayne
  3. Eric Gryba

in that order. The Fayne-Gryba item is real in my opinion, once Schultz gets back Todd McLellan may move Sekera back over, but he’s been good with Nurse and if that duo continues to play well someone is going to sit. Gryba’s being a feature player on the third pairing may tip PC’s hand about the future (meaning it’s one of the two other guys listed). If Fayne’s TOI spikes, or Schultz is activated and plays 23 minutes, we may have our answer. Peter Chiarelli isn’t going to pay Justin Scultz $5 million a year. Seriously. The return? Well, it could be a better RH defenseman but I don’t think Chiarelli is done with the forwards yet.

WHAT WILL PC BE LOOKING FOR?

I think his shopping list is threefold. There’s a vagueness about the 3 and 4 lines, and Chiarelli’s Bruins didn’t have a vague line ever. Rugged, responsible and with some offensive acumen, that’s the idea for PC’s support lines. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Edmonton returned with a Chris Kelly ‘Swiss Army knife’ or a bigger winger with some jam and a little more offense than Klinkhammer or Gazdic. This is far from the Chiarelli final final.

  • RH defenseman with a range of skills and the ability to wheel. Steve Staios in his prime, maybe a little faster.
  • A Pisani type for the third line, but a physical Pisani with speed. I don’t think the Oilers are completely satisfied with depth wingers not named Matt Hendricks.
  • A replacement for Anton Lander. It’s coming, or he’s turning it around, but the longer we go the more likely it comes.

https://twitter.com/NicholsOnHockey/status/668794275455365120

Leon is showing he can push the river, and added to Hall that line should be able to roar with Toby Petersen along for the ride. Leon the Point Farmer delights the eyes because we’re not used to seeing a giant standup freezer on skates move so quickly, but he can and he does at both ends of the ice.

Added to the other insane talents, one of these pairs (with their third man) should see the soft underbelly of NHL teams, and honestly the third pairings and fourth lines on some of these teams is amazing. I mean like ‘the Edmonton Roadrunners starting lineup for tonight’ amazing. Shock and awe await, as German Engineering makes his way around the eastern seaboard. If the Oilers win the lottery next spring, with all of this talent, Ed Snider starts his own league. Book it.

kelly

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

This morning at 10, TSN 1260. NO IDEA what we’ll talk about!!!!!! Scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. Trade winds and panic in some NHL boardrooms as the season drifts away.
  • Brian King, NonStopSportsPicks. King has been saying the Eskimos were a Grey Cup favorite since early in the season, damned if he didn’t call it right.
  • Sunil Agnihotri, Copper & Blue, The SuperFan. Oilers hit the road with an obscure starter in goal, three rookie blue in the everyday lineup and a third line center who makes a punch and judy look like Babe freaking Ruth. Ah, kids. You never stop worrying about them.
  • Andrew Bucholtz, 55-Yard Line. The Eastern Final was a classic, do the Eskimos have anything to fear fro the Redblacks? Henry Burris was a rookie in this league before Ralph Brock, what could go wrong?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. See you on the radio!

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Bohologo

It’s an Alberta day here in DC: clear blue sky, and a stiff wind from the north making cheeks rosy for the first time this season. If any LTers are coming to the game tonight I’ll be in suite 311 wearing a vintage away sweater with a bunch of barely civilized Crapitals fans; swing by and I will buy you a beer.

Ca$h-McMoney!

I want to see us get Hamonic. I think it will take Eberle to do it. I don’t love that, and maybe there is another asset coming back, but I think we need to do it.

However….

I would like to see Chia target the Flyers to pick off one of their underperfoming mid to late 20s forwards (not Sam Gagner).

I’m thinking now might be a good time to acquire a very underperfoming Wayne Simmonds. Good physical winger who can fill in for Ebs in the lineup, not in the sense of matching his production but helping to fill the gap while adding a physical dimension, all at a cheaper price point more appropriate to a winger getting his minutes. If we can’t get Simmonds we look at other options (Raffl, Schenn, I don’t know). The Flyers have scored 35 goals in 20 games and need to get the puck to Giroux & Voracek if they are going to turn this around.

They need a puck mover on D so I’d be trying to build a package around Schultz. Not sure if there would be interest but, realistically, this is a team that is willing to lean hard on MIcheal Del Zotto, so there’s a chance.

That would mean Hamonic replaces Schultz on the back end and Simmonds replaces Eberle up front, plus/minus other assets on the periphery to get the deal done.

Call me crazy but it’s where I’d be spending my time if I was in the GM chair. Philly is ripe for the picking and could make the sting of the acquisition cost for Hamonic lessen to an extent.

dustrock

Bohologo,

Hope the Oilers can give you sweet victory, or at least an entertaining game.

One silver lining this year has been the latter – at least there’s been some entertaining games and nice goals scored. 🙂

Visually better

Ca$h-McMoney!,

I’d be on cloud nine if we managed Simmonds and Hamonic. If that happened right away, I could truly see us in the hunt for the play-offs THIS year. However, both of those guys would cost a pretty penny. Eberle, Schultz, Reinhart? a First + + im guessing. Definitely a price I would pay, however.

russ99

Tonight is a big test for this group.

Will we stick with the system or will we try to run and gun with the Caps, which killed us in odd man breaks last time out.

Also, will Nilsson hold up with the barrage to come?

Re Schultz: 8 games with very different own-zone results from last year is way too soon to give up on him. The salary likely gets in the way of him being a long-term piece, but there’s still a player there.

I know some of you are hot to dump him but even if we do trade him in the next calendar year, if you want the most value back you’d likely not move him right after a back injury.

kinger_OIL

– Awesome 20-games State of the Union LT!

– Everyone omits that Shultz is not signed beyond this year: 50 games of Shultz or less, untill/if he gets traded, isn’t really worth much at all in terms of a tradeable asset

– Plus Jultz and his management team have shown a propensity to want to get paid, and look out for #1: tough to want to trade for that (not to mention he’s not all that)

– So many 5-7 D, so little 5-7 slots to fill

– You forgot the Goalers….

rickithebear

Tried posting this last 2 days.

The priority of any Dman is to prevent High chance shots on net.
Reduce the shot count in the area (slot/box) 53% of shots get 84% of goals.

The more offensively effetive a player is the more likely they are a high cap contract.
we can have lines that range from 3m to 21M.

Our Defence of the past has required multiple high Cap lines to break even.
such there is notenough capspace to win with that defence.

Now we have D that force perimeter.

Comp – HSCA60 Rank 194 D
Klefbom #2 toughest comp in league 9.10 #46 HSCA60
Fayne #8 comp – 8.05 #22 HSCA60
Davidson #107 comp – 10.01 #80 HSCA60
————————————————-these three are cap hit gold!
Reinhart #64 comp – 11.25 #127
Sekera #141 comp – 10.78 #107 HSCA60
——————————————————- these 2 do not bury us.

All other periferial measure mean shite without defence allowing cheap cap outscoreable offence.

delooper

I’m really looking forward to people not mentioning Hamonic again. I doubt the trade happens… well, with the Oilers.

Ca$h-McMoney!

Visually better,

I’m not sure how much Simmonds would cost. I mean, he should be expensive, but I’d identify Philly as the number one sell low candidate team in the league right now. They can’t score, they can’t defend, they’re awful.

I think there is an outside chance they move a forward with some promise (Simmonds, Schenn, Raffl, Read, maybe Couturier) for someone to help on the back end, even if that someone has warts. Seems like a good opportunity to sell Schultz…. though perhaps Nick Schultz would warn them off that, I don’t know.

The idea being winning a trade with Philly would reduce the sting of an overpay-to-fill-need trade to acquire Hamonic. If the trade with Philly is expensive we probably don’t do it.

This one is a scheduled loss in my books, but 7-13-1 still is okay. Go 2-2 from there and we are on pace. If they manage to go 3-1, well honestly I’d take 10 wins out of 25 games on that rough schedule gladly.

I don’t know that the top 9 needs any fixing, LT. 4th line needs to get its act together. The only question in the top 9 when McDavid returns is who plays on Nuge-Eberle’s portside on the 2 line. I love that McDavid, Yak and Pouliot will be our 3 line and murder the soft parade.

Purcell is making me eat my words of late. He looks like a new man all of a sudden. Keep it up, Teddy.

The one that got away was Stempniak. I was pounding the table on bringing him in for the PTO late summer. He’d have been a nice, versatile piece to have for the top 9.

The blue…what happens there is going to be interesting to watch.

Don’t break up the unicorn before it happens, though. I just want to see what it can do.

ironsight

I’ve seen a lot of talk about the Oilers strength of schedule, and I wonder if we’re discounting the vaunt they’ve faced through the first 20 games. BehindtheNet.ca shows that there have been 194 defensemen who have played at least 10 games this season. Of those 194, the 7 Oilers D who’ve played 10 games all rank inside the top quartile in terms of Corsi QualComp:

Fayne (1)
Klefbom (4)
Sekera (9)
Gryba (19)
Reinhart (22)
Davidson (38)
Nurse (44)

Does this suggest that the opposition the Oilers have faced thus far have been predominately above-average possession teams?

tommyjr26

I am not sure what Timra did to MPS and Lander, confidence appears to be an ongoing issue. My top 9 forwards would be:
•Hall—Draisaitl—Purcell
•Lander—McDavid—Yakupov
•Pouliot—Nuge—Eberle

Give McDavid some faceoff Shelter with Lander, and get Landers confidence back up.

ironsight,

The Central is far and away hockey’s strongest division. Oilers have been .500 vs everyone else and lost every Central game. The turn north is already in progress in my opinion. But it’s like turning a cruise ship. This is going to take time and look like it isn’t even turning from much of it.

I think no hasty trade is needed. Games 25-50 will see the Oilers with a. 500 or better record. And the stretch run is going to be fun with 3 lines firing and everyone buying into the system. I think they fall just short of the playoffs, depending on how the 3rd place team in the division goes, but 85 points should be achievable.

Jethro Tull

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Purcell is making me eat my words of late. He looks like a new man all of a sudden. Keep it up, Teddy.

Yah, anybody would think this was a contract year, or sumpin’.

I wonder if the conversation went a little like this: “Your sucking on the 30th place team in the league on a contract year. Good luck in the off-season. We’re not signing you for $4M at term. But maybe, and it’s the biggest of maybes, we’ll go $2M at 2 years. How you react to my next words may well dictate your future as an NHL player – impress me.

Because somehow, the other 29 GMs would have to be bat-shit crazy not to recognize a pump n’ dump.

Wonder what Teddy’d look like in Bruins silks…..

Jethro Tull

I’m actually liking that -8 GD. Reminds me of one of Babcock’s major tenets. And of course, he mentored TMac.

We were -25 this time last year. We’re hanging round games like a nasty smell, and soon, some will start to fall our way.

This team is like the mother-in-laws old lap dog; it’s 2 by 4 training every freaking day.

oliveoilers,

Yeah, well contract year noted but the first 10 games he looked like he couldn’t keep up and was done. Almost like Ference on forward. All of a sudden. And yes I know the line mates help but he is skating better, making good decisions and playing smart.

Would love to know if he was injured early on or had a fire lit under his ass somehow. I read he worked out hard with Adam Oates this summer on his own dime so I’m not questioning his motivation coming in. But it has been fascinating to witness.

I hope he keeps it up. I really do.

knighttown

Looking at Philly is like the Oilers looking into a magic-mirror that ages them 6 years. If they don’t fix the defense they’ll be exactly where the Flyers are now. Giroux, Voracek, Simmonds, Couturier, Schenn, Raffl bring a combination of skill, size and youth that could compete for a Cup in front of Tampa’s defense but are wandering the desert in front of Del Zotto, Gudas, Schultz, Medvedev(?) and Luke Schenn. And they aren’t young enough to have any upside.

The best example of how much the NHL’s changed into a “defenseman’s league”.

Concur

No Lander tonight…. ’bout time.

I know they want him to succeed but they could have sat him for a game earlier to try to get some kind of response. I hope he can get refreshed and come back like he did in the middle of last year.

Even if he does come back and get it together, what does it say about him that he consistently has a slow start to the season. Something to think about.

bsmart

I agree that Stempniak would have been a nice add but also Curtis Glencross. I loved his game and would have been had for league min. Both are way better players than Gadzic,Klinkhammer, and Korpikoski.

knighttown

-Brandon Mashinter
-Joonis Kemppainen
-Mattias Janmark
-Trevor Lewis
-Ryan Carter
-Sven Andrighetto
-Gabriel Bourque
-Oscar Lindberg
-Taylor Beck
-Joonus Donskoi
-Scott Gomez
-Erik Condra
-Stanislav Galiev

What do these players all have in common?

bendelson

Ca$h-McMoney!,

Simmonds vs Reid

Simmonds gets his PP time.
Reid gets his PK time.

Simmonds is a value-contract (?).
Reid is significantly over-paid (?).

Simmonds will cost you dearly.
Reid may come for a distant bell.

And yet… the two players 5×5 numbers are virtually the same, year after year…
Interesting.

knighttown

knighttown:
-Brandon Mashinter
-Joonis Kemppainen
-Mattias Janmark
-Trevor Lewis
-Ryan Carter
-Sven Andrighetto
-Gabriel Bourque
-Oscar Lindberg
-Taylor Beck
-Joonus Donskoi
-Scott Gomez
-Erik Condra
-Stanislav Galiev

What do these players all have in common?

All of these players suck but yet are playing in the top-9 as we speak on the very best teams in the NHL. And a shockingly large number of them are on the second and even first lines. Who plays alongside Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle of the 3rd (3rd!) line should be the least of our concerns as it will be a revolving door of the guys you list (Hendricks, Slepyshev) or maybe an Anton Lander.

All of those options are good enough and you might say, too good. With the top 7 we have we can’t afford a “good” 3rd liner.

Fix the defense.

jake70

russ99: Tonight is a big test for this group.Will we stick with the system or will we try to run and gun with the Caps, which killed us in odd man breaks last time out
>

If Anders is on his game, let the dogs out…..screw it. Lol. The Oilers need to get leads on teams to “seduce” them into chance taking. Players love river hockey, it’s in their DNA, they just won’t admit it – remember Sam’s 8 pointer, the hawks got sucked in, was fantastic.

Pajamah

knighttown: All of these players suck but yet are playing in the top-9 as we speak on the very best teams in the NHL.And a shockingly large number of them are on the second and even first lines.Who plays alongside Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle of the 3rd (3rd!) line should be the least of our concerns as it will be a revolving door of the guys you list (Hendricks, Slepyshev) or maybe an Anton Lander.

All of those options are good enough and you might say, too good.With the top 7 we have we can’t afford a “good” 3rd liner.

Fix the defense.

You do make a great point. Offensively this team is in very little trouble. I do, however, find it hilarious that you answered your own post instead of editing in what you needed to say.

Its like someone answering “who’s there?” to their own knock knock joke.

Again though, agreed on the needed focus on D.

Soup Fascist

bendelson:
Ca$h-McMoney!,

Simmonds vs Reid

Simmonds gets his PP time.
Reid gets his PK time.

Simmonds is a value-contract (?).
Reid is significantly over-paid (?).

Simmonds will cost you dearly.
Reid may come for a distant bell.

And yet… the two players 5×5 numbers are virtually the same, year after year…
Interesting.

Simmonds is 2 years younger, signed for an extra year at a reasonable ticket, put up 20 more points than Read last year and is considerably more physical.

Other than that …… they are EXACTLY the same.

I agree Simmonds will cost you more in terms of a trade, largely because he is worth more, IMO.

I would love Simmonds in an Oiler jersey – but we need to fix the defense first.

LadiesloveSmid

Staios-type steady RHD
Pisani type 2-way winger with skill

But your Lander replacement isn’t Peca?

Ca$h-McMoney!

bendelson,

Soup Fascist,

I understand the logic. I’m personally more of a fan of Simmonds on a style of play basis, but yeah Read is good to. I like the fact that Simmonds is younger and locked up at $3.2 million, which is more appropriate a price tag for a middle 6 winger, which is what we’re looking for here (basically another Pouliot).

But again, Read would be fine.

Larger point, I think, is that Philly seems ripe for the picking and Chia would be wise to be working on something with them.

DBO

A Pisani type for the third line, but a physical Pisani with speed. I don’t think the Oilers are completely satisfied with depth wingers not named Matt Hendricks.

= Anton Lander. With the 3 offensive centres in place, then Lander needs and can be a two way agitating LW. He can play PK and PP if needed. He can slide around for sure. Add him to Nuge and Ebs and you have a real solid two way line that can score and take on the toughs.

alice13

“Even from when we saw him in Penticton in September, Leon Draisaitl looks another step quicker. And obviously confident.”

I think they’re related. You’re confident, you make quicker decisions. If you decide to move your feet a half-second sooner, well, you’re half a second faster to wherever you’re going.

I missed Friday’s tilt – thank you for 9 stations showing a Raptors game though – but what I noticed most about Davidson in the Chicago game was his passing. Hitting guys at length, in stride. I think passing is a bit of a knack, you have several “speed and line” combinations that will hit the target, just like a putt. Most people have those two variables criss-crossing each other, for every two dead on, maybe one a little ahead, one a little behind, we kind of think it a bit. The natural passers don’t. I have a daughter who played pretty low level hockey, but she could stand behind the goal line and hit tape on someone in motion halfway up ice like it was nothing harder than breathing. Just comes easy to some, and Davidson I thought looked so easy and dialled in. Nice to see.

knighttown

Pajamah: You do make a great point. Offensively this team is in very little trouble. I do, however, find it hilarious that you answered your own post instead of editing in what you needed to say.

Its like someone answering “who’s there?” to their own knock knock joke.

Again though, agreed on the needed focus on D.

LT has his alter ego answer his questions all the time. Luckily for me, italicized Knighttown isn’t a sociapath like italicized Lowetide.

Now bolded Knighttown on the other hand? He’s got issues.

knighttown: All of these players suck but yet are playing in the top-9 as we speak on the very best teams in the NHL.And a shockingly large number of them are on the second and even first lines.Who plays alongside Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle of the 3rd (3rd!) line should be the least of our concerns as it will be a revolving door of the guys you list (Hendricks, Slepyshev) or maybe an Anton Lander.

All of those options are good enough and you might say, too good.With the top 7 we have we can’t afford a “good” 3rd liner.

Fix the defense.

Nuge and Eberle and Co aren’t the 3rd line. It’s still McDavid Yakupov and Pouliot. And that’s just fine by me. Give them the soft parade. Unicorns.

Soup Fascist

DBO:
A Pisani type for the third line, but a physical Pisani with speed. I don’t think the Oilers are completely satisfied with depth wingers not named Matt Hendricks.

= Anton Lander. With the 3 offensive centres in place, then Lander needs and can be a two way agitating LW. He can play PK and PP if needed. He can slide around for sure. Add him to Nuge and Ebs and you have a real solid two way line that can score and take on the toughs.

I just don’t see it. What has Lander done this year to indicate that he will help this line to be more effective than when Pouliot is on it?

Honestly, the exercise here seems to be “which of our existing underperforming forwards will downgrade our effective forwards the least”?

That seems flawed. Lander has been a boat anchor this year. Period. Korpi / Klunker / Gazdic / Letestu / Pak largely have been as well. Hendricks has done his job admirably – when healthy – but is a 4th liner.

To borrow from an analogy that LT trots out from time to time, our Aces, Kings and Jacks – are fine we just have way too many dueces and threes instead of 6’s, 7’s and 8’s.

bendelson

Soup Fascist,

I never intended to claim the two players were EXACTLY the same – and I don’t think I actually did.
I also prefer Simmonds by a wide margin, all things being equal.
The POINT was simply that both players have surprisingly similiar 5×5 numbers.

You want a solid 5×5 contributor in your bottom 6 that won’t cost you any significant talent off the roster? Reid is a fair choice in the short term.

G Money

I’m a bit mystified by the people who rebuff suggestions to improve the third line “because the D comes first”.

Actually, if Talbot doesn’t get his groove back soon, goalering is the highest priority.

D is the second highest priority.

The third and fourth lines are the third priority.

But trade opportunities don’t fall into such nice buckets. Trades are all about need, timing, and opportunity. You don’t pass on a chance to improve your third line “because I’m waiting for that 1D to become available.”

That’s silly.

frjohnk

DBO:
A Pisani type for the third line, but a physical Pisani with speed. I don’t think the Oilers are completely satisfied with depth wingers not named Matt Hendricks.

= Anton Lander. With the 3 offensive centres in place, then Lander needs and can be a two way agitating LW. He can play PK and PP if needed. He can slide around for sure. Add him to Nuge and Ebs and you have a real solid two way line that can score and take on the toughs.

Anton Lander
152 games in his career.
3 even strength goals

This year
Corsi For % 46%
High Scoring Chance For % 35.6%
Shot For % 44%

The play is dying on his stick.

He has replaced Gordon, but Lander is not as good defensively, and is not as good offensively ( last year is looking like an outlier)

But Lander is cheaper.

Only good thing he has done this year, is that he is 55% in the faceoff circle.

Lander has played like crap, putting in Korpikoski as his replacement as center is a tell.

Soup Fascist

bendelson:
Soup Fascist,

I never intended to claim the two players were EXACTLY the same – and I don’t think I actually did.
I also prefer Simmonds by a wide margin, all things being equal.
The POINT was simply that both players have surprisingly similiar 5×5 numbers.

You want a solid 5×5 contirbutor in your bottom 6 that won’t cost you any significant talent off the roster?Reid is a fair choice in the short term.

I understand that – you are looking for value in terms of return for assets going the other way in a trade – and that is fair. Sorry, I do mean to appear dickish.

I just think focusing on 5×5 numbers is one dimensional. Is Read an upgrade over the list of other ineffective bottom sixers we have? Maybe, maybe not.

Coming into this season the belief was Korpi was a fast aggressive forward coming off a bad season and ready to rebound – have not seen it. Letestu was a savvy center who could move up and down the lineup – not so much. Lander was coming off a decent 2nd half and exceptional World Championships, ready to be a very good 3C – oops. Pak was ready to explode onto the scene as an effective energy player – to me he has been a mixed bag. To me Read is another journeyman no better or worse than any of these guys. So my response to him in particular is – meh.

Simmonds is a known and proven commodity. I think Simmonds brings a lot of things the Oilers are missing – but you are correct, the price would be much more dear.

G Money,

Did you mean me because I said the 3rd line doesn’t need fixing?

It doesn’t. Early this season it did. But the 3rd line now is McDavid between Pouliot and Yakupov.

The only hole to plug is LW on the 2 line.

The goaltending will improve. And I say that having been very cautious on Talbot before the season even started, as you well know.

4th line and D need work right now. A solid 2LW for Nuge and Eberle would be ideal but maybe that can be filled internally the way Purcell stepped up for the 1RW role.

Soup Fascist

G Money:
I’m a bit mystified by the people who rebuff suggestions to improve the third line “because the D comes first”.

Actually, if Talbot doesn’t get his groove back soon, goalering is the highest priority.

D is the second highest priority.

The third and fourth lines are the third priority.

But trade opportunities don’t fall into such nice buckets.Trades are all about need, timing, and opportunity.You don’t pass on a chance to improve your third line “because I’m waiting for that 1D to become available.”

That’s silly.

Agree. Except that where you are in terms of cap and moveable assets affects how / if you are able to acquire the players you REALLY need. I would love to acquire Simmonds – he would be an awesome 3rd line winger and make the team better, but a 3rd line RW making $4 million for 3 more years is a luxury you may not be able to afford if you do happen to find a legitimate starting goalie and top pairing D and need to trade for them and pay them as such.

It has to be considered.

At the risk of sounding like the bipolar people I sometimes criticize here, and despite my conservative estimate for 85 points for this team, I have never been more optimistic in the past 5 years about the future of this team than I am now.

The sudden emergence of Draisaitl has changed everything and pushed forward the plan. I saw him good in Penticton but he was still playing against kids. He is now proving himself vs. the best.

Remember I called 90+ points for Hall this year before the season. I said McLellan did wonders for Marleau and would for Hall (similar blazing fast players). Also, McDavid’s arrival and all the Seguin is better talk would motivate Taylor to take things to the next level. And he is showing us so far.

Nuge is going to be a 70-point 2-way monster with a modern day Joey Mullen on his wing.

And Yakupov is the perfect guy to ride shotgun for the speed and skill and vision of McDavid. With a responsible 2-way winger like Pouliot on the port side that line will be the best attacking 3rd line in hockey.

As the players buy into the system more and more and learn good habits, as the special teams improve, and as the goaltending gets better this team will fly.

If, in the offseason, we can add a Hamonic type 1RD look out. Because that alleviates so much pressure.
Klef-Hamonic
Nurse-Sekera
Davidson-Fayne

And that forward group? Look out!! Next season the Oilers win the Pacific.

We are finally at the dawn of the next great thing for this franchise. It was such a dark night I know it feels like Shawshank, but we are out of the sewer pipe folks. Embrace the rain. Zihuatanejo awaits!

bsmart

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: At the risk of sounding like the bipolar people I sometimes criticize here, and despite my conservative estimate for 85 points for this team, I have never been more optimistic in the past 5 years about the future of this team than I am now.The sudden emergence of Draisaitl has changed everything and pushed forward the plan. I saw him good in Penticton but he was still playing against kids. He is now proving himself vs. the best.Remember I called 90+ points for Hall this year before the season. I said McLellan did wonders for Marleau and would for Hall (similar blazing fast players). Also, McDavid’s arrival and all the Seguin is better talk would motivate Taylor to take things to the next level. And he is showing us so far.Nuge is going to be a 70-point 2-way monster with a modern day Joey Mullen on his wing.And Yakupov is the perfect guy to ride shotgun for the speed and skill and vision of McDavid. With a responsible 2-way winger like Pouliot on the port side that line will be the best attacking 3rd line in hockey.As the players buy into the system more and more and learn good habits, as the special teams improve, and as the goaltending gets better this team will fly.If, in the offseason, we can add a Hamonic type 1RD look out. Because that alleviates so much pressure.Klef-HamonicNurse-SekeraDavidson-FayneAnd that forward group? Look out!! Next season the Oilers win the Pacific.We are finally at the dawn of the next great thing for this franchise. It was such a dark night I know it feels like Shawshank, but we are out of the sewer pipe folks. Embrace the rain. Zihuatanejo awaits!

I love this post, very good points and quoting my favorite movie featuring Tim Robbins. Very nice!

bsmart

“the hardest screw that ever walked the halls of Shawshank”

Statsman

Good day all! I just wanted to provide my perspective on all of this trade talk by reverting back to draft ideologies. In essence, both drafting for BPA and organizational need have the same end game.

Organizational Need
– you probably arent’t obtaining the best projected players in any given draft.
– your scouting staff needs to be more capable of discerning talent than in the BPA scenario.
– in theory, if done competently, this method precludes (or decreases) the need to make impactful
future trades to obtain what you need.

BPA
– probably a good idea when you pick as high as the Oil have recently (and I thiink we would agree
that this is the route that the Oil have taken).
– capable scouting is not as critical in this scenario as BPA is often consensual (hindsight not
withstanding).
– the key is that when you have accumulated as many valuable assets as we have, there comes a
time when you need to exchange some of these duplicated assets for ones that fill more of an
organizational need
– WE ARE HERE NOW.

Some would say that you can fill some of these needs by signing UFAs, but in my opinion, this is a bit of a fool’s game.

Just my two cents.

Cassandra

Hamonic didn’t look good last night.

Now, I’m not drawing any general conclusions on that basis, other than to say if that is what Hamonic is I don’t want to trade too much for him.

What I think it really shows is how dubious we should be about scouting reports. Even if the scout has an eagle eye if he happens to see a guy on a bad night it is going to colour the report very disproportionately.

G Money

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Did you mean me because I said the 3rd line doesn’t need fixing?

No, I’m generally referring to the tenor of posts that go “Why bother looking at improving x? We need to improve y first!” That’s different from saying “I don’t think we need to improve x”.

Soup Fascist,

Of course. No move can be made without considering the cap (not to mention, age, chemistry, need, and assets) implications.

Suppose you have the opportunity to get a solid 3rd line upgrade on a good cap-friendly contract for cheap. Do you refuse to consider it because you have other priorities? That’s the implication for a number of the assertions in recent threads, which makes no sense to me.

Ca$h-McMoney!

G Money,

This is exactly why I think, based on the stench of desperation out of Philly, that trading a Dman for a forward, even a winger, could be an important first step for us. Buying good winger depth from Philly in exchange for a marginal piece at D might allow us to pursue a higher end Dman with a little more gusto.

Philly represents a good opportunity to win a trade. You always try to make those deals, even if they don’t fix your immediate problems.

G Money,

Oh, right. Fair enougj. Carry on then 🙂

Factotum

rickithebear,

Post hoc, ergo propter hoc.

Top 5 defensemen in 5×5 HSCA60, 2010-2011 season to present, minimum 100 GP (war-on-ice):

1. Peter Harrold 8.09
2. Andrew Greene 8.11
3. Anton Volchenkov 8.24
4. Colin White 8.32
5. Mark Fayne 8.43

What these guys all have in common is that they played for the New Jersey Devils. Strangely, there’s not a Norris trophy or postseason all-star selection in the bunch.

BTW, five of the next eight names on the list played for either Nashville or LA (Ellis, Ekholm, Greene, Muzzin, Martinez).

The inability to spend enough to score enough to compensate for how much you give up is an interesting and useful way of looking at things, but “how much you give up” seems as much, if not more, a team characteristic as an individual one. Until you find a way to account for team effects, your habit of ranking defensemen league-wide according to this statistic seems of somewhat dubious value, and it’s doubtful that it carries enough weight to support your apparent conclusions about the individual Dmen.

At least HSCA is a step up from EVGA, so you’re getting closer.

Drew

G Money: No, I’m generally referring to the tenor of posts that go “Why bother looking at improving x?We need to improve y first!”That’s different from saying “I don’t think we need to improve x”.

Soup Fascist,

Of course.No move can be made without considering the cap (not to mention, age, chemistry, need, and assets) implications.

Suppose you have the opportunity to get a solid 3rd line upgrade on a good cap-friendly contract for cheap.Do you refuse to consider it because you have other priorities?That’s the implication for a number of the assertions in recent threads, which makes no sense to me.

~ Sounds like you are one of those new age management types, making constant incremental steps to improve your business.
Look that type of thinking does not wash with me mister, gotta cut off your nose to spite face type decisions only. You know, follow only a long standing common plan that everyone else uses, do not deviate, only one way to do things, if your assets are not set to that plan do everything possible to force alignment no matter the cost, etc. ~

Jethro Tull

Factotum: 1. Peter Harrold 8.09
2. Andrew Greene 8.11
3. Anton Volchenkov 8.24
4. Colin White 8.32
5. Mark Fayne 8.43

Factotum: Strangely, there’s not a Norris trophy or postseason all-star selection in the bunch.

No, it isn’t strange at all. They are purely defense-by-committee d-men.

Pouzar

G Money: But trade opportunities don’t fall into such nice buckets. Trades are all about need, timing, and opportunity. You don’t pass on a chance to improve your third line “because I’m waiting for that 1D to become available.”

See the trade for Troy Tulowitzki. Need was starting pitching. Opportunity to grab TT presents itself. Bam.