G22 2015-16: OILERS AT HURRICANES

by Lowetide

Anders Nilsson owns an even-strength save percentage of .914 this season, that’s good for No. 33 among goalies who have played 10 or more games. Ben Scrivens even-strength a year ago? .897. Victor Fasth? .896.

THE NASTY, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
  • Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
  • Oilers in November 2015: 3-5-1
  • Oilers after 21 in 2014-15: 6-13-2, 14 points (-31 GD)
  • Oilers after 21 in 2015-16: 7-13-1, 15 points (-9 GD)

Game 22 last season was a loss, but a solid effort on the road against the Dallas Stars.

https://twitter.com/NicholsOnHockey/status/669251232494546944

https://twitter.com/NicholsOnHockey/status/669251912831668224

It would have to be a three-way deal to my eye. Edmonton gets Hamonic, NY Islanders acquire a plug and play defender and the other team takes a forward, prospect and or picks from Edmonton. Candidates? Fayne and a pick? Does that get something done? I’m running the prospect list now and nothing rhymes unless the Oilers decide to do something stupid and Chiarelli won’t trade Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl or Darnell Nurse. The others? They don’t get you there.

Among veterans, I don’t think PC trades Hall, Nuge, Sekera, Klefbom (heh, veteran!) and probably not Jordan Eberle before McDavid gets 20 games in with 14 starboard. Who is the best player not on that list? Probably Benoit Pouliot. I like him plenty. Something around Mark Fayne and a valuable draft pick, seems to me, is the highest value Chiarelli has to offer.

If the Oilers run the same lineup (Nilsson is already named as starting G) I’d be pleased—although it would be nice to see Anton Lander draw back in over LG. We’ll see. I really like the defense right now and Purcell’s adding to the top line. If the Nuge line can cash tonight, I like the Oilers chances of having a handsome road trip.

THE BLUE, THROUGH 21

oilers blue g1 through 21

Klefbom—Fayne is strong now, they’ve tightened like Archie Bell and the Drells. Todd McLellan made a point of mentioning the second pair (Nurse—Sekera). The third pairing is good, and the entire crew is good enough to have me genuinely worried when Justin Schultz draws back in against the Detroit wheels. Klefbom has been a revelation without JSchultz, hope Todd McLellan sees it that way, too. The Davidson rel shines like a freaking beacon.

Check out the offense from Klefbom, Davidson, Sekera and Nurse. Some solid boxcars this season. Who would you call the MVP among the defensive group in the first 21? I’ll go Klefbom, for the range of skills, but you could argue for a couple more men in this group. Another 60 games from Sekera like the last one and he’ll slide into the ‘Pouliot’ file of free-agent signings.

THE FORWARDS, THROUGH 21

oilers forwards g1 through g 21

MVP among this group? I’ll go Hall, but OH MY the runs by McDavid and Leon will live on in my memory for a long damn time. Lordy. Jordan Eberle didn’t play a lot in this first 21, but seems to be finding the range now. Todd McLellan will need to figure out the bottom 6F and I think we might see something happen there sooner than later. Maybe McDavid plays New Year’s eve and scores twice, sings Auld Lang Syne and drives everyone home in an Uber. When he does return, picture this on a day in December:

JAN THREE LINES

Look right? That 3line LW needs to be more skilled, but that’s for next season. I wonder if they consider running Hendricks with Nuge and Eberle, and we could see 14 move up to the McDavid line right away. Can these three lines average 70 goals each? Thoughts? Come on, SlepSlappy!!

mclellan capture may 19

  • Todd McLellan: “I see growth in young players, and I see old dogs learning new tricks.” Source

The goal differential doesn’t match the won-loss record, and the verbal is decidedly upbeat for a team this deep in the second division. A win tonight gets Edmonton even with the Godless Flames, the Avalanche and ahead of the Blue Jackets depending on other scores tonight. The fun starts when Edmonton gets on a bit of a roll, because the division standings offer the real meat of the season:

pac7

One of the key indicators (goal differential) has Edmonton ranked No. 5 in the division and a win tonight moves the Oilers within five points of a playoff spot. It’s vital to get some points this trip, stay within reach of Van. The easier schedule and the return of McDavid should allow this team to romp a little in the new year.

Ahem. If the Oilers are looking for a fourth uniform (their third is perfect, talk of retiring it will not be tolerated) this item is a fabulous novelty. I believe it’s for charity and the Slap Shot feel to the photo adds to its look. Well done, Oilers!

2016 DRAFT

2016 early look london

Central Scouting has issued a new ‘players to watch’ list and the London Knights have an insane group of prospects this year. Early days, and we won’t get into this for some time (January at the earliest) but this is the first list that shows the depth of some of these teams and leagues. The USHL group is mammoth. I’m impressed with this Olli Juolevi fellow, you can read about him here.

hoffs

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy show, 10 this morning on TSN1260. We will have open line time too, so call or text in! Scheduled to appear:

  • Dustin Nielson, TSN1260. Live from Winnipeg, we’ll talk Grey Cup and Dusty’s experiences in Manitoba.
  • Dan Auchenberg, Sherwood Park Fury. Turned around the program in a heartbeat, we’ll talk about the women’s program overall and his team specifically. There are a lot of opportunities for women’s hockey in the USA, we’ll chat about it.
  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. The wise McCurdy will drop in to discuss Nilsson, the blue, the Yak and the night Raleigh broke our hearts. We’ll talk some football, too.
  • Dave Jamieson, TSN1260. Dave will regale us with more Grey Cup week stories, God they’re funny.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. 90 minutes away!

 

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Loyal2theoil

GO OILERS GO

dustrock

that pic is beautiful.

love me a nice Rickenbacker.

Don’t understand why Gazdic is really ever in the lineup. Give Lander one day off to recoup and see how he performs.

It worked for Draisaitl and Nurse. It worked for Hall after he was benched in the 3rd period early in the season.

jonrmcleod

*SPAM ALERT*

Over at The Oilers Rig blog we’re doing a contest. Basically, it’s just for fun–the prize probably isn’t very desirable. But I thought some of you might have some fun with this.

“Hey, Connor! The Oilers Rig Is Having a Contest!”

http://www.theoilersrig.com/2015/11/hey-connor-the-oilers-rig-have-a-contest/

frjohnk

jonrmcleod:
*SPAM ALERT*

Over at The Oilers Rig blog we’re doing a contest. Basically, it’s just for fun–the prize probably isn’t very desirable. But I thought some of you might have some fun with this.

“Hey, Connor! The Oilers Rig Is Having a Contest!”

http://www.theoilersrig.com/2015/11/hey-connor-the-oilers-rig-have-a-contest/

link is broken

Woogie63

In January I would like to see this line up for 10 games

Hall- Draisaitl- Pakarien
Pouilot- McDavid -Yakupov
Slepyshev- Hopkins- Eberle
Hendricks-Lander-Korpikoski

Klefbom- Fayne
Nurse – Sekera
Reinhart – Shultz

Talbot
Nilsson

Hall Awaits

That Flames goal differential has 14-15 Oilers written all over it. Absolutely lovely!

Nilsson looks like his finding the range the last few games. He seems very calm and never seems to overplay the reads. He reminds me a lot of a previous six foot something goalie we used to have. Whatever happened to that guy anyways?

4-1 tonight for the Oilers. 2 points each for Hall and Drai.

jonrmcleod

frjohnk: link is broken

The site appears to be down. Sorry about that. Hopefully it’ll be back soon.

verdad2.0

Delusions abound about this team and mostly about its core.
But tonight may in fact be the turning point of the season.
If the Oilers lose, as I fully expect them to do, then the rest of the road trip will be a death march.
And the season is more than lost. It will have confirmed that this core doesn’t win hockey games.
It never has.

It is laughable that as much angst exist about not being willing to trade this core for players that might actually complement MacDavid and Draisatl long term.

And yes, Hall for OEL in a heart beat. This afternoon.

But check in at 8pm for the festival of rationalization.

frjohnk

jonrmcleod: The site appears to be down. Sorry about that. Hopefully it’ll be back soon.

Ok, will check it out

slopitch

Love that Stavanger Oilers jersey. I think I might have to get one. Im of Norwegian descent and went to Stavanger back in 2011. Norway is a lot like Canada except it costs way more. If anyone is ever looking for an epic hike, google some pics of Preikestolen, it is a beautiful hike up to a cliff edge that is 600m high looking over a fjord. It took me about 30 min to get the courage to sit over the edge for the photo I took. Still can’t believe I did that. Anyways I don’t remember a ton about the town other then we found some wicked good Chinese food and there was an Alan Jackson concert the one night we were there, which I found odd.

I think the Oilers should rotate LB and AL until one proves to be the better option. Both have a year left after this year and should be hungry to earn the roster spot.

Oilers need to go on a run here. Carolina is an ok team (under performing IMO). Still bitter about losing in 2006 but cant really find it in me to hate the team. Go Oilers.

Ca$h-McMoney!

Hey LT,

I realise we’re not talking deep 2016 draft picks yet, and I respect that, but I just want to put a name in front of you that I’ve been watching down here in Lethbridge this season.

Egor (Yegor actually) Babenko.

Small skilled Russian putting up a lot of points (23gp, 12g 10a). Plays on what is functionally the third line, with #2 PP time. You should watch this kid hang on to the puck in the offensive zone, it’s nuts. Drives hard from the boards to the front of the net, really impressive. If he goes it will be after the 4th round because he’s under 175 pounds, but he could be a real steal.

Now back to reality.

Go Oilers!

Loyal2theoil

Ca$h-McMoney!,

Hows Stuart Skinner doing?

stevezie

I am planning on staying up to watch this one. The soft opponent combined with the recent verbal on this site has convinced me.

I need to see Leon.

Cassandra

I would love to know when the discussions for Hamonic began.

The Reinahrt pick+ Schultz for Hamonic would have been great.

If that’s not good enough, do the Islanders turn down the Reinhart pick, Schultz, and Yakupov? That also makes the Oilers better.

Really, any alternate history other than the one that happened would have been great.

Now, I think it is too late. The Oilers don’t have the expendable assets to make it happen. Anything the Islanders would accept would be too high a price to pay.

stush18

stevezie,

Girlfriend, you NEED to see Leon.

Ca$h-McMoney!

Loyal2theoil,

He actually had a pretty rough start, but has seemingly gotten back on track the last few games. I’m still really high on the kid. Jordy Bellerive has looked solid too, him and Skinner aren’t draft elligible until next year.

Coffeys_Messy_eh

Caramel Obvious,

Re: the Hamonic discussions, Rishaug tweeted that the discussions began in the summer, and in one of LeBrun’s recent blog posts he mentions a source saying that Chiarelli tried to get Hamonic before the trade request. Settled for Reinhart, perhaps?

https://twitter.com/tsnryanrishaug/status/667122272390488064

http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/40104/rumblings-wild-show-interest-in-travis-hamonic

Loyal2theoil

Ca$h-McMoney!,

Ahh i See

Skinner was drafted in the 2013 draft along with Benson, Claque etc so i grouped him with them. I heard Bellerive is good.

Im a Tigers fan so seeing the Canes do good this year is unusual, along with the Tigers slow start.

Is Jaeger White producing? I have some mutual friends with his family.

PhrankLee

Skoyyyylers!!

Fuck the Canes.

Seriously, fuck those clowns.

I love playing the East. I get to watch the entire game and it’s not so late. The home and left coast games go late in ON. At least for me. I can’t imagine watching from NL as some of our brothers do.

Feeling anxious as well about Justin Schultz returning. I would like it if he was activated and immediately traded.

Living in ON we get a lot of exposure to teams like the Canes. The recent discussions about the blue compel me to call out to my fellow Oiler fans that want to trade Eberle and take special note of when Faulk in on the ice.

This guy is wicked good.

When we discuss the mythical “1D” I think of this guy.

2008. Man what a draft. Year of the D and Stamkos.

Our first pick was the best pick in the draft in terms of value. Unbelievable pick. Unbelievable return on that pick.

It also provided lore to the team with Eberle’s international play.

Eberle is magic. But he does not get you close to Justin Faulk in a trade.

EDIT: I should point out that Justin Schultz, Colten Tubert and Jordan Eberle were all chosen ahead of Faulk in that draft.

jonrmcleod

The link that I posted above seems to be working now.

http://www.theoilersrig.com/2015/11/hey-connor-the-oilers-rig-have-a-contest/

speeds

PhrankLee,

Faulk was 2010 draft, selected 6 spots after Pitlick.

commonfan29

PhrankLee,

You’ve got the wrong Justin Faulk.

The good one was taken in 2010, 6 picks after Tyler Pitlick.

frjohnk

PhrankLee:
Skoyyyylers!!

Fuck the Canes.

Seriously, fuck those clowns.

I love playing the East. I get to watch the entire game and it’s not so late. The home and left coast games go late in ON. At least for me.I can’t imagine watching from NL as some of our brothers do.

Feeling anxious as well about Justin Schultz returning. I would like it if he was activated and immediately traded.

Living in ON we get a lot of exposure to teams like the Canes. The recent discussions about the blue compel me to call out to my fellow Oiler fans that want to trade Eberle and take special note of when Faulk in on the ice.

This guy is wicked good.

When we discuss the mythical “1D” I think of this guy.

2008. Man what a draft. Year of the D and Stamkos.

Our first pick was the best pick in the draft in terms of value. Unbelievable pick. Unbelievable return on that pick.

It also provided lore to the team with Eberle’s international play.

Eberle is magic. But he does not get you close to Justin Faulk in a trade.

EDIT: I should point out that Justin Schultz, Colten Tubert and Jordan Eberle were all chosen ahead of Faulk in that draft.

Faulk was picked in the 2010 draft.

Edit: Im slow to the draw

Loyal2theoil

PhrankLee,

Funny thing is he.was drafted 37th Overall in 2010.

Woodguy

Todd McLellan will need to figure out the bottom 6F and I think we might see something happen there sooner than later.

If the Oilers make a trade to break the log jam on D then what might come back is a bottom 6 forward.

Not a Korpikoski or Klinkhammer type, but more of a big, young F with a history of “decent” offence who might be in the AHL or playing 4th line duty due to being behind a strong NHL forward group.

CAR is funny team.

Well coached and the corgis show that (6th in NHL w/ 53.8%)

However they shoot 5% 5v5 (28th in NHL) and are 27th in the NHL with a .907 5v5 SV%.

Normally we’d say “get better goaltending, the SH% should improve and they’ll win games” but they only shot 6.15% last year and Eddie Lack has not been good (have read that the goalie coach wants him coming out a lot and that is not Lack’s game)

I think CAR has a real “finish” problem. They have some good hockey players, but no real finishers.

Skinner has never been the same since his series of concussion.

Lindholm is coming along very slowly for being a 4th overall who brings offence.

Jordan Staal’s only been signficantly above 0.50 pts/gm twice (last 2 years in PIT) as a player.

Eric Staal’s always been good, but one good player can’t carry a team.

As for the D, I like Faulk a lot and think Hanafin will be a full on top pairing Dman in his early 20’s.

Fluery is coming too so they have some really nice Dmen in the pipe, but up front its not good.

The talk on the radio is that this is an easy game, but I’m not sure about that.

They are a good defensive team, but have real problems scoring.

If they get a couple it might be tough.

If the Oilers play like they have played the last 4 games they should win though, they’ve been playing very good NHL hockey.

Go Oilers!!

*clap,clap*

godot10

//Maybe McDavid plays New Year’s eve…//

I don’t think Connor plays till after the all-star break…i.e. February 1. This is not Kane rushing to get back for a Stanley Cup run.

PhrankLee

PhrankLee,

Yeah, got 6 or 7 drafts flying around my desk.

Thanks And whoops.

Centre of attention

I would like to start by apologizing for my explosion after the Washington game. Wont happen again, and I realize just how well they played. The Oilers were a bounce away from at least a single point that night.

Now to stay on topic:

How about this for a top 6? Still possible to have unicorns while stacking the top 6 with centers. McDavid on the wing makes a bit more sense and I see him and Nuge rotating in and out of pivot with this line up.

Hall-Drai-Purcell
McDavid-Nuge-Eberle
Pouliot-Letestu-Yakupov
Hendricks-Lander-Korpi
Pakarinen

The D looks pretty much how it should given what we have, and I too worry about the return of Justin Schultz. The best we can hope for is Gryba/Jultz rotating in with Davey on the 3rd pair. Reinhart should be catching a flight to Bakersfield sometime this week IMO and its for the best. Its not a knock on Reinhart either. I think he comes back up from the minors [wont be long] and looks like the top 4 shut down D we saw on draft day.

PhrankLee

jonrmcleod: The link that I posted above seems to be working now.
http://www.theoilersrig.com/2015/11/hey-connor-the-oilers-rig-have-a-contest/

Very cool. You’re going to get some filthy ones, I bet.

russ99

Other than old biases rearing up their ugly heads, I can’t see why everyone is nervous about Schultz.

Maybe everyone remembers the one play vs. Washington and forgot the steady 7 games before it.

Schultz has been better overall in the D-zone this year than anyone on the roster but Nurse and Davidson, and as good as Klefbom moving the puck through the neutral zone.

Maybe we should forget the lost years under Eakins and MacT’s ludicrous statement and caving on salary, and see how he does under McLellan, just like everyone else on the roster.

Lloyd B.

Hola Amigos Just spent the past four weeks in Mexico. Only checked in the entire electronic world a couple of times. Left phone at home. Great break. But WTF?? We’re dead last again.,. still? McDavid out? Schultz still out? All the rookie D are up and appear to be playing ok. From the posts I’ve read it sounds like it is the best ELPH we have been subjected to for years. Heres hoping the turn north is iminent. However, I come to the group for a much bigger issue today.

On my return my Kuerig **ducks and hides under the table** has given up the ghost. Time for a new machine. If you coffee aficionados could refresh my memory as to the two best machines and the pros can cons of each I would appreciate it. Will I also now need a coffee grinder and beans? If so some advice on some choices there as well would be great. And where do I find the machines etc. in the Edmonton area. It’s the dawning of a new day. Thanks in advance for your help.

Now if only I hadn’t bought two huge boxes of K-Kups before I left.

Factotum

Responding to our ursine friend’s main post from yesterday:

rickithebear,

You’re getting closer, but you’re still ignoring team effects. And if the object is to outscore, what you create is as important as what you give up, lest the ideal become Jacques Lemaire “hockey”. I’d prefer not to use boxcars since goals are a rarer event than scoring chances.

Have a look at HSCF%Rel and cCF60, which measure (a) high danger chances both for and against (on-ice minus off-ice), and (b) attempted shot volume of competition being defended.

For 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 combined (minimum 1400 minutes), here are the Dmen who were Top 30 for both (in no particular order):

Mark Giordano
Andrew Greene
Zbynek Michalek
Chris Tanev
T.J. Brodie
Alex Edler
Jeff Petry

Top 60 for both:
Marc-Edouard Vlasic
Jared Spurgeon
Zdeno Chara
Alex Goligoski
Danny Dekeyser
Duncan Keith
Dustin Byfuglien
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Jack Johnson
Andrei Markov
John Carlson
Braydon Coburn

You wouldn’t like the raw HSCA60 for quite a few of those guys, but they were playing the toughest competition and were still creating far more chances than they were giving up relative to the rest of their team. Still not a complete picture, but it’s an interesting list.

(By the way, Klefbom is #16 so far this year in HSCF%Rel, so he’s killing it by that measure as well. Long may it last.)

PS. My personal opinion is that Vlasic may be the best Dman in the game and should have won the Norris by now.

Ca$h-McMoney!

Woodguy,

Agreed on your Carolina comments, except that I’m not sure Fleury counts as a prospect of note anymore. He’s doing fairly well on a very good team this year, but his draft + 1 was a trainwreck (28 points in 63 games).

wintoon

Lloyd B.,

Certainly must be a huge problem if you have to waste everybody’s time with it. If you can’t figure it out for yourself, maybe you should start drinking tea ….. granny.

zatch

Factotum,

This is pretty good stuff. Ricki refuses to take offense into account, so it’s good to see what this looks like when someones does (shockingly, it looks a lot more like what you’d expect and somehow doesn’t have Keith Aulie on it)

Pouzar

Really?:
Lloyd B.,

Certainly must be a huge problem if you have to waste everybody’s time with it. If you can’t figure it out for yourself, maybe you should start drinking tea ….. granny.

You never could compete with Lloyd B!

Woodguy

Lowetide:
Centre: No worries. Everyone, including the host, has had their moments. Except Steve Smith, incredibly

Who’s Steve Smith?

Ca$h-McMoney!

Factotum,

I want Burns to win the Norris, because I want his picture in the Hockey Hall of Fame someday.

I want people to look at that picture 200 years from now and wonder what the hell was going on in the early part of this century.

He’s the face of my fantasy hockey franchise, Burns Notice.

dustrock

Woodguy: Who’s Steve Smith?

Scoundrel. You’d like him.

dustrock

Funny thing about Lack and Talbot both struggling, both guys who like to play deep.

Woodguy

Ca$h-McMoney!:
Woodguy,

Agreed on your Carolina comments, except that I’m not sure Fleury counts as a prospect of note anymore.He’s doing fairly well on a very good team this year, but his draft + 1 was a trainwreck (28 points in 63 games).

I’m not sure going from .65pts/gm to .44pts/gm is a “train wreck”, but it wasn’t good to see.

He is still a high profile prospect who is tracking well.

Dmen take time.and he doesn’t turn 20 until next summer.

Cyanide

Lloyd B.,

If your Keurig machine, when pressing the brew button, is just not spitting out coffee it is not broken just plugged. easy fix. Just get a paper clip and a turkey baster, straighten paperclip and stick it in the part that pokes the k cup. Fill you water container with vinegar, and use turkey baster to force vinegar through the intake hole in the bottom. and cycle your brewing it will come free.You may have to unplug it and plug it back in to re-brew. Mine does it all the time, if i don’t use it often. If that’s not your problem sorry.
And there is absolutely nothing wrong with using a Keurig machine, your problem, Sir, is you are using K-cups. Buy a reusable cup, buy coffee beans and a grinder.
I use my Kuerig when in a hurry, otherwise I prefer a moka pot.

TheOtherJohn

Woodguy,

As to Haydn Fluery trainwreck of a draft +1 season: Griffin Reinhart was 8 21 29 in 59 g in D+1

Woodguy

dustrock: Scoundrel. You’d like him.

Is he a card player and a gambler as well?

Ca$h-McMoney!

TheOtherJohn,

Woodguy,

Fair enough. I guess I’ve never really been that impressed watching him live, and I always thought of him as more of an offensive type Dman so the scoring regression was a bit more of an issue than it was for Griffen (who was considered perhaps the best defensive Dman in the WHL in his draft + tenure).

But that said I’ll concede the point, evaluating young Dmen is pretty darn hard.

Lloyd B.

Cyanide,

Thanks Cyanide I’ll give it a go.

As for Really?. There was a very good discussion on this here blog a number of months ago on coffee machines and coffee. Just trying to tap into that previous discussion without having to search through the individual blogs. Sorry if I upset your sensitivities. NOW…get off my lawn !!

Cyanide

Lloyd B.,

It can take up to 1/2 hour or so sometimes to pop free, but it works every time for me. I also keep cycling the vinegar through until the water container is empty of vinegar just to give it a good cleaning. I also recommend running water through it a couple times after the vinegar to get the taste of vinegar out of the machine.

jimmers2

Re: Coffee paraphernalia

Someone (sorry, I forget who) made a strong recommendation of this device:

http://espro.ca/espro-press/

That took less space than a tweet!

MOAR WINZ PLEEZ

Lloyd B.,

The “machine” you need is called a chemex. Get yourself some paper filters, a decent burr grinder and a scale and find some good craft-roasted coffee, I prefer Ethiopian (Yrgacheffe) & Kenyan beans as they have incredible flavour.

You could also try an aeropress…

Your life will never be the same…

Edit, apparently I like using 3 dots…