OILERS NO. 10 PROSPECT (winter 2015): IIRO PAKARINEN

The Edmonton Oilers have been bleeding useful role players to the other NHL teams for a long time. Jason Chimera, Kyle Brodziak, Tobias Rieder and others come to mind when this subject comes up from time to time. Iiro Pakarinen is one of the first boats against the current we have seen in recent years, and could be a very useful hockey player, procured for free.

PREVIOUSLY NO. 10 ON THE WINTER LIST

  • December 2004: D Roman Tesliuk (0) (GM: Kevin Lowe)
  • December 2005: L Dragan Umicevic (0) (GM: Kevin Lowe)
  • December 2006: D Taylor Chorney (82) (GM: Kevin Lowe)
  • December 2007: D Jeff Petry (339) (GM: Kevin Lowe)
  • December 2008: L Linus Omark (79) (GM: Kevin Lowe)
  • December 2009: C Anton Lander (156) (GM: Steve Tambellini)
  • December 2010: D Alex Plante (10) (GM: Kevin Lowe)
  • December 2011: D David Musil (4) (GM: Steve Tambellini)
  • December 2012: D Dillon Simpson (0) (GM: Steve Tambellini)
  • December 2013: C Greg Chase (0) (GM: Craig MacTavish)
  • December 2014: R Tyler Pitlick (27) (GM: Steve Tambellini)

The long shots are full bore by the time we get halfway through the list. Jeff Petry shines like a beacon here, Anton Lander is 156 games into a career that is still touch and go, and high picks like Alex Plante stand out as important, but in the bad way. Prendergast/Lowe got Petry, but the real drama is a player like Alex Plante. He was a high pick who was questionable from the moment he was chosen; by 2010, he was taking on concussions when he hit No. 10 on this list.

pakarinen250113__large-700x466

WHAT THEY SAID ON DRAFT DAY

  • Kirk Luedeke: Undrafted overager has nice size, should add some bulk and get stronger. Heavy feet with a choppy stride, but decent straight-line speed. Needs to pick up the initial burst to have a shot at the NHL. Keeps his stick on the ice and goes to the net well. Opportunistic scorer throughout; managed to be in right place at right time and made his opportunities count. OK defensively; doesn’t do anything to stand out in his own end. Overview: Pakarinen had a pretty good hand in Finland’s offense during the preliminary round, but seems to be a longshot as an NHL prospect. Might have done enough to get drafted late, but not a prospect to keep a close eye on as the 106th-ranked skater by Central and not likely to be on many teams’ lists if at all.
  • Hockey’s Future: Pakarinen plays like a demon in tight spots, and his stick handling ability and skating agility compares favorably to any of the top young players in Finland. Rather than focus on artistic playmaking, however, Pakarinen prefers the physical elements of the game. Offensively, he does have a hard, accurate shot which suggests he could be a dangerous sniper. While his physical style explains his pedestrian offensive numbers, that abrasiveness has gained him both attention and notoriety from scouts. As coaches and scouts will tell you, it’s easier to tone down a player who is too aggressive than it is to try and instill competitiveness.

Florida let him go at the same time Edmonton waved goodbye to Samu Perhonen. He was part of the 2011 draft, so in some peculiar way he took the place of Tobias Rieder among Oilers hopefuls.

PREVIOUS RANKINGS

  • Summer 2014: No. 26
  • Winter 2015: No. 5
  • Summer 2016: No. 6
  • Winter 2016: No. 10

Important to note that Pakarinen remains a pretty damn good prospect despite falling down the list. Connor McDavid and Ethan Bear from this years draft, along with aggressive procurement by Peter Chiarelli (Griffin Reinhart, Anders Nilsson) have Pakarinen here. Anyone who has watched the Oilers this year knows he is building a case to hang around as a regular roster player.

  • Pakarinen on his first NHL goal: “I don’t even remember. I was a little bit shocked. It was so fast of a situation. I jumped on the ice and the rebound was there and I tried to shoot as hard as I can.” Source

parkatti pakarinen

2015-16

  • Lowetide Nov 2015: He’s in the NHL now, I was disappointed McLellan didn’t get to see him in TC. It’s an uphill climb now, Leon and Slepy cloud the view, but there’s a chance for him and that’s all any Pakarinen can ask for in a season. His 2.13/60 estimate is No. 2 among all Condors, behind Winquist. Source
  • Iiro Pakarinen: “I’m an all-around player, I think I can play on all four lines. If they need me on the first or second line, I think I can be there. If they want me to play on the fourth line, then I can play simple and harder and grind it a little bit more. That’s what I think is good about my game.” Source
  • Todd McLellan: “I liked his practice Saturday, it was the first time I’ve really experience Iiro in practice. I thought he looked strong, he competed hard in practice, showing us he wants to play. There’s a good chance he’ll be in the lineup (Sunday) night.” Source
  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult Of Hockey #26 Iiro Pakarinen, 8. Scored a pair of goals, both on excellent shots and both after outstanding second efforts. On the 2-1 goal he lost his stick during a puck battle in the corner, recovered it, and drifted into the slot to lash home Lander’s fine pass. The other was all Pakarinen’s own doing, when he harassed two Detroit defenders on the forecheck, bumping one off the puck, then stealing the disc from the other before wiring home another quick release wrister that surprised Howard on the short side. Some long overdue production from the bottom six.

THE FUTURE

When Fernando Pisani left, the Oilers decided to force a little more offense into the lineup on their third line. Ryan Jones brought a physical style, worked like a bugger and had legit scoring ability, so he won the day. I was not a fan, not because Jones lacked talent, but because the team needed someone who could bring more of a two-way element to the game.

Two years later, the Oilers made me rue the day I questioned Jones by gifting fans with Lennart Petrell. At that point, Edmonton had a real issue with a lack of responsible wingers that has continued through this day. Iiro Pakarinen is not the Godsend checker I have been praying for, but he is aggressive on the forecheck, has some actual ability and there is structure to his game (If someone asked me to describe Petrell as an Oiler, it would be something like ‘only the boards could keep him in’).

There is a job for someone here and maybe Iiro Pakarinen gets it. He is not Pisani as a two-way player, but he could be a Ryan Jones-type scorer with at least the semblance of a defensive conscience. I believe he is a better prospect than either Jones or Petrell, and is a high-water mark in terms of free hockey forwards brought in to help. They are applying for the job Marc Pouliot never wanted, Andrew Cogliano scoffed at, Tobias Rieder should be filling. Ah, the stories we could tell if they were interesting.

THE 2011 DRAFT

  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, No. 1 overall. Splendid player despite what you hear, 200-foot game. Graduated.
  • Oscar Klefbom, No. 19 overall. Top 4D with close to complete skill set. Graduated.
  • David Musil, No. 31 overall. Smart D, foot speed is a problem and now Reinhart blocks him. A candidate the Winter Top 20.
  • Samu Perhonen, No. 63 overall. Big goalie back in Finland. No longer in organization.
  • Travis Ewanyk, No. 74 overall. Tough as nails checking C now in Ottawa organization.
  • Dillon Simpson, No. 92 overall. Defensive D just getting his season going. A Candidate for Winter Top 20.
  • Tobias Rieder, No. 114 overall. Scouting home run, he’s in the NHL. No longer in organization.
  • Martin Gernat, No. 122 overall. Appears to be in the final year with the organization. Not a Candidate at this time for Winter Top 20.
  • Laurent Brossoit, No. 164 overall. Flames draft pick acquired in Ladislav Smid salary dump.Has progressed very well as an Oilers prospect. No. 6 prospect, Winter Top 20.
  • Frans Tuohimaa, No. 182 overall. Playing well in the Swedish second tier league. No longer in organization.
  • Iiro Pakarinen, No. 184 overall. The Panthers drafted but did not sign him, and Pakarinen was plucked by Edmonton for only money. He is 34 games into his NHL career and we cannot see how it turns out, but the range of skills has me impressed. He has no strong connection to Peter Chiarelli so could be playing his final games in this league, but I like his potential a lot. No. 10 prospect, Winter Top 20.

STATS

wowy

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.11
  • 5×4 points per 60: NIL
  • TOI: 10:11
  • Corsi For 5×5 %: 50.2
  • Corsi Rel: -0.7
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 19/15.8%
  • Boxcars: 18GP, 3-0-3

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49 Responses to "OILERS NO. 10 PROSPECT (winter 2015): IIRO PAKARINEN"

  1. Genjutsu says:

    Cheering like hell for him. He’s a player the team needs to pan out. The Oilers have some nice young players bubbling under, if a few of them could take a step we could be a playoff team next year.

  2. stush18 says:

    LT I’m sorry but I’m still 100 percent confused as to why you listed slepyshev ahead of Reinhart.

    Slepy has proven even less than Reinhart at an easier position.

    Slepy should have been before or after nillson, imo

  3. Lowetide says:

    stush18:
    LT I’m sorry but I’m still 100 percent confused as to why you listed slepyshev ahead of Reinhart.

    Slepy has proven even less than Reinhart at an easier position.

    Slepy should have been before or after nillson, imo

    I’m sorry we don’t agree. The great thing? We get to watch this play out! 🙂

  4. jimmers2 says:

    Seeing that 2011 draft list again really brought something taken for granted into clear light. Brossoit and Simpson are legit prospects who are still just beginning to establish themselves as pro players and neither are late. And yet there at the top of the list is RNH who, at pretty much the same exact age as the others, is into his fifth season in the NHL, and almost of it as de facto 1C. TMac made the point of how young he is now (22!!). It is shocking to realize once again how young he was when he started. The distance between his achievements and the others on this list (almost the whole league’s 2011 draft list) is jarring. The guy is a hero.

  5. Lowetide says:

    jimmers2:
    Seeing that 2011 draft list again really brought something taken for granted into clearlight.Brossoit and Simpson are legit prospects who are still just beginning to establish themselves as pro players and neither are late.And yet there at the top of the list is RNH who, atpretty much the same exact age as the others, is into his fifth season in the NHL, and almost of it as de facto 1C.TMac made the point of how young he is now (22!!).It isshocking to realize once again how young he was when he started.The distance between his achievements and the others on this list (almost the whole league’s 2011 draft list) is jarring.The guy is a hero.

    Yes. RNH is often compared to Datsyuk, in that ’he isn’t progressing like Datysyk’ except the Red Wings C didn’t come over until he was 23.

  6. G Money says:

    Lowetide: Yes. RNH is often compared to Datsyuk, in that ’he isn’t progressing like Datysyk’ except the Red Wings C didn’t come over until he was 23.

    And also like RNH, Datsyuk never scored 50 pts in a season before the age of 22.

  7. G Money says:

    I know it’s bad form to quote your own Twitter feed, but I thought my riff on a quote by Steven Novella was vaguely clever (and relevant due to the particularly acute level MSM garbage recently).

    The work of a science blogger is largely comprised of correcting and criticizing bad science news reporting. – Steven Novella (1/2)— Oilers Nerd Alert (@OilersNerdAlert) December 4, 2015

    The work of a hockey stats blogger is largely comprised of correcting and criticizing bad sports reporting. (2/2)— Oilers Nerd Alert (@OilersNerdAlert) December 4, 2015

  8. jimmers2 says:

    Lowetide,

    RNH and McDavid have a nice spread of ages, where RNH in his young prime can shelter CMD. Just need to get a similar kind of support for RNH, whether from another mature 2 way centre or defenders that can defend and move the puck in both ends of the ice.

  9. geowal says:

    Ah, the stories we could tell if they were interesting

    Love it.

  10. Lowetide says:

    G Money: And also like RNH, Datsyuk never scored 50 pts in a season before the age of 22.

    Don’t make me get the rake.

  11. Bank Shot says:

    I’d like to see Pakarinen succeed. If I had to guess though, I think he’s a guy that’s not in the NHL when the Oilers start to get good.

    He seems very Tyler Pitlickish to me. Skates around trying hard, but doesn’t get very much accomplished. Doesn’t really stand out in any way.

    He’s 24. I think he likely is what he is at this point, and what he is, is a borderline 4th liner.

    Barring trades the Oilers already have 11 forwards under contract for next season, and four of those guys (Hendricks, Korpikoski, Letestu, and Lander) are either 4th line or pressbox on a good team.

    I’d like to see the Oilers bring in a couple of reclamation vets for the last two spots who have a chance at playing higher up in the line up than the 4th line. Like a David Jones, or a Grabner, or a Stalberg.

    If they do that, it doesn’t leave any room for Iiro, and I’m ok with that.

  12. stush18 says:

    Lowetide: I’m sorry we don’t agree. The great thing? We get to watch this play out!

    Well hopefully it plays out well for both.

    Don’t get me wrong, I love slepy, and think he’s a perfect fit for mcdavid in the future. I just think Reinhart should be ahead

  13. Quinlan says:

    I need a Iiro!

  14. Bag of Pucks says:

    Pakarenin sounds like Macarena to me so I like to sing a song when’s he’s on the ice.

    “Here he comes on the forecheck, Pakarinen
    Stick between your legs and the puck he’s a stealing
    He’s heavy on the puck like a Finnish hockey demon
    Aaay Pakarinen!”

    In loosely related news, I can’t stop calling Purcell, Ruxpin, but now that he’s playing better, it’s taken all the fun out of it.

  15. dangilitis says:

    Lowetide: And yet teams continue to play these guys. Why? Because if a proven scorer isnt scoring after an injury, history suggests playing him. And when he breaks out, people will be talking about his extreme value. Why? Scoring goals has extreme value.

    Just wanted to include this from the older post.
    Yost published on why RNH shouldn’t be traded.

    Here are my simple thoughts as to why trading Eberle is a mistake:

    Eberle’s track record is 0.78 ppg over 369 GP playing on the worst team in the league, and he’s only 25. Add that to his junior legendary performances and shootout prowess (which clearly has value in the shootout era), and he is unmistakably valuable to any team. There aren’t many players in this league who provide that kind of track record at this age.

    You don’t trade these players when they slump because they bust out of these slumps (especially when McDavid-Yak-Pouliot reunited and match-ups become more favourable). Trading now is foolish because you sell low. If he rebounds, trading at that point is usually foolish because he’s returned to his usual form, at which point he provides significant value that you don’t want to lose unless a similar value is received in return and additionally addresses team weakness.

    To put it another way, if this is indeed the end of Jordan Eberle’s NHL career as an upper eschelon forward at the ripe old age of 25, then nothing ventured, nothing lost if you hold on to him as opposed to trading him for babkas for the sake of making a trade…

  16. Aron_S says:

    This comes up every now and again on the blog, and I certainly understand the sentiment: to paraphrase, “The reason why the Oilers are failing aren’t the terrible picks made in 2010+ but the 2006-2009 clusters.” Particularly looking at Alex Plante, and knowing that footspeed was considered an issue on draft day, who else would you have chosen? I don’t feel like there were any huge wins for players taken in the ~5 picks right after Plante (maybe Ian Cole), but I’m curious what selection you would have liked to have seen?

    2007 was a funny draft year because I remember sitting in my car on Jasper Ave, listening to 1260, being excited about Gagner, perplexed by Plante and disappointed that they didn’t grab Esposito or Cherepanov.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2007e.html

    Also at the time I remember thinking giving up selections 30 and 36 to move up and grab Nash was a mistake. Considering what the board looks like now, looks like they were actually right to move up and grab a player, Too bad they couldn’t sign him.

    What a disappointing summer that was, after the Smyth trade ripped the heart out of the club. It’s been a long damn time since then.

  17. RexLibris says:

    Two years later, the Oilers made me rue the day I questioned Jones by gifting fans with Lennart Petrell.

    So LT was…

    …holding out for an Iiro.

    *puts on sunglasses and walks out of frame*

  18. LMHF#1 says:

    Aron_S:
    This comes up every now and again on the blog, and I certainly understand the sentiment: to paraphrase, “The reason why the Oilers are failing aren’t the terrible picks made in 2010+ but the 2006-2009 clusters.” Particularly looking at Alex Plante, and knowing that footspeed was considered an issue on draft day, who else would you have chosen? I don’t feel like there were any huge wins for players taken in the ~5 picks right after Plante (maybe Ian Cole), but I’m curious what selection you would have liked to have seen?

    2007 was a funny draft year because I remember sitting in my car on Jasper Ave, listening to 1260, being excited about Gagner, perplexed by Plante and disappointed that they didn’tgrab Esposito or Cherepanov.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2007e.html

    Also at the time I remember thinking giving up selections 30 and 36 to move up and grab Nash was a mistake. Considering what the board looks like now, looks like they were actually right to move up and grab a player, Too bad they couldn’t sign him.

    What a disappointing summer that was, after the Smyth trade ripped the heart out of the club. It’s been a long damn time since then.

    The pick there was Cherepanov. Really simple after you’d already grabbed a safer choice AND had a pick coming very soon after.

  19. elphy101 says:

    Its interesting looking back at the drafts from 07-09. Revisionist history but you also learn how we could have fixed our dman problem;

    2007
    Gagner picked 6th overall: Mcdonagh picked 12th and Shattenkirk picked 14th.
    30th & 36th pick traded for 22nd: PK Subban picked 43rd.

    2008:
    Oilers used offer sheet to give up 12th, 43rd and 72nd picks in 2008 for Penner.
    12th Overall Pick: Tyler Myers drafted with pick acquired from Anaheim.
    22nd Overall Pick: Happy with Eberle although Roman Josi went 38th overall
    43rd Overall Pick: Burke picked Justin Schultz (signed with Edm as UFA), Hamonick picked 53rd overall

    2009
    10th Overall Pick: Magnus Paajarvi is picked. Ryan Ellis goes 11th, Calvin DeHaan goes 12th, Dmitri Kulikov goes 14th and Nick Leddy goes 16th overall.

    Plenty of top 4 stud defensement went shortly after the Oilers picked in all three years. This along with finding a goaltender is why we are still in last place.

  20. Aron_S says:

    elphy101,

    I think 2007 is too much of a reach to look at the D drafted after Gagner, and the offer sheet happened in ’08, but that 2009 draft really stings now (although I was definitely excited by MPS at the time).

  21. geowal says:

    Aron_S,

    Wow Montreal sure cleaned up there.

  22. Dr. Taboggan says:

    elphy101,

    I think you can go back even further. Many dominant teams are still riding the 2003 draft. The Oilers shit the bed drafting/developing from 2003-2009. Most other rebuilding teams at least had a foundation. The Oilers started with less than nothing.

  23. Lowetide says:

    Ah, the 2007 draft. I remember the morning with such fondness.
    https://lowetide.ca/2007/06/22/what-a-day/

  24. Alpine says:

    Riley Nash would honestly be of decent use to us in our bottom six. Was dumb to trade up for him but at pick 36 he would have been better value. Also with no first round tag on him maybe the Oilers wouldn’t have to tried to yank him out of Cornell.

  25. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Lowetide,

    Great article. Good call with Voracek and McDonagh. How would things look now if those were the Oilers selections?

  26. Alpine says:

    Lowetide:
    Ah, the 2007 draft. I remember the morning with such fondness.
    https://lowetide.ca/2007/06/22/what-a-day/

    Wow, some of the names in that thread! Vic Ferrari! Oilers twitter all stars RIversQ and Lord Bob!

  27. SwedishPoster says:

    Just a small correction. Touhimaa plays in the Swedish 2nd tier with Leksand.

  28. El Duderino says:

    That 2007 draft was a real downer. I remember the whole damn thing. Now the 03, 04, 05, 06, 08, 09, and 10, those were peachy keen. Maggie the Monkey would have been our heroine.

  29. Aron_S says:

    Lowetide,

    Nice pull. Perron at 15? McDonagh wasn’t there, but if Perron would’ve been considered a reach, it was a damn good call. And of course the idea of trading Greene and 30 for a veteran D would have been amazing.

    If we learn nothing from this, maybe at the 2016 draft we can see them trade Reinhart and ~31 for a veteran D?

  30. Lowetide says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Just a small correction. Touhimaa plays in the Swedish 2nd tier with Leksand.

    It isnt called Swe-1 anymore? Thanks for the update!

  31. Lowetide says:

    Aron_S:
    Lowetide,

    Nice pull. Perron at 15? McDonagh wasn’t there, but if Perron would’ve been considered a reach, it was a damn good call.And of course the idea of trading Greene and 30 for a veteran D would have been amazing.

    If we learn nothing from this, maybe at the 2016 draft we can see them trade Reinhart and ~31 for a veteran D?

    Reinhart will hold his value, I believe.

  32. G Money says:

    *** NERD ALERT ***

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/12/04/oilers-and-bears-and-fancystats-oh-my/

    Where I analyze last night’s game, and use the results to throw a little bit of shade at both ‘sides’ of the fancystats debate.

  33. SwedishPoster says:

    Lowetide,

    It’s called Allsvenskan but that’s pretty non-sensical if you don’t speak swedish. Leksand played in the SHL, first tier, last season but was relegated. And now they play crappy enough to be demoted again. Frans has saved them from a proper disaster of a season.

  34. Kmart99 says:

    LT, you would’ve grabbed Voracek and McDonagh eh? Well how in the world is this team going to get CMD in 2015 with drafting like that!?

  35. Yeti says:

    G Money:
    *** NERD ALERT ***

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/12/04/oilers-and-bears-and-fancystats-oh-my/

    Where I analyze last night’s game, and use the results to throw a little bit of shade at both ‘sides’ of the fancystats debate.

    This was absolutely fucking brilliant and should be mandatory reading for everyone.

  36. threeputtdouble says:

    dangilitis: Just wanted to include this from the older post.
    Yost published on why RNH shouldn’t be traded.

    Here are my simple thoughts as to why trading Eberle is a mistake:

    Eberle’s track record is 0.78 ppg over 369 GP playing on the worst team in the league, and he’s only 25. Add that to his junior legendary performances and shootout prowess (which clearly has value in the shootout era), and he is unmistakably valuable to any team. There aren’t many players in this league who provide that kind of track record at this age.

    You don’t trade these players when they slump because they bust out of these slumps (especially when McDavid-Yak-Pouliot reunited and match-ups become more favourable). Trading now is foolish because you sell low. If he rebounds, trading at that point is usually foolish because he’s returned to his usual form, at which point he provides significant value that you don’t want to lose unless a similar value is received in return and additionally addresses team weakness.

    So you can’t trade him when he’s struggling because he’s undervalued, and you can’t trade him when he’s producing because he’s too valuable.

    Are you Steve Tambellini?

  37. GCW_69 says:

    elphy101:
    Its interesting looking back at the drafts from 07-09. Revisionist history but you also learn how we could have fixed our dman problem;

    2007
    Gagner picked 6th overall:Mcdonagh picked 12th and Shattenkirk picked 14th.
    30th & 36th pick traded for 22nd: PK Subban picked 43rd.

    2008:
    Oilers used offer sheet to give up 12th, 43rd and 72nd picks in 2008 for Penner.
    12th Overall Pick:Tyler Myers drafted with pick acquired from Anaheim.
    22nd Overall Pick:Happy with Eberle although Roman Josi went 38th overall
    43rd Overall Pick:Burke picked Justin Schultz (signed with Edm as UFA), Hamonick picked 53rd overall

    2009
    10th Overall Pick: Magnus Paajarvi is picked. Ryan Ellis goes 11th, Calvin DeHaan goes 12th, Dmitri Kulikov goes 14th and Nick Leddy goes 16th overall.

    Plenty of top 4 stud defensement went shortly after the Oilers picked in all three years.This along with finding a goaltender is why we are still in last place.

    In 2007 I wanted Voracek after Alzner came of the board and in 2009 I was yelling at the tv for the Oilers to pick Kulikov. What could have been….

  38. Quinlan says:

    G Money:
    *** NERD ALERT ***

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/12/04/oilers-and-bears-and-fancystats-oh-my/

    Where I analyze last night’s game, and use the results to throw a little bit of shade at both ‘sides’ of the fancystats debate.

    Fantastic article. Should be getting more attention than it appears to be. Great work, G! As one amongst the masses of those who cannot math, I appreciate and approve of this message.

    It’s work like this that takes me from simply enjoying the game to enriching that enjoyment with understanding.

    Thanks!

  39. BONE207 says:

    G Money for Prime Minister. Math beats drama any day. Plus we’ll have more money for Canadians as opposed to throwing at the UN. Go G$$

  40. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Quinlan,

    Yup, GMoney nailed it.

    Articles that merge what we see with what is calculated should help advance the cause.

    Basically the Oilers somewhat outplayed the Bruins for more than half the game. Because the Oilers are the worse team and expectations aren’t high, somewhat ouplaying the Bruins stands out (this is my point of view, not from the article per say).

    The Bruins absolutely trounced the oilers for about 25% of the game.

    Because trounce for 25% of the game > somewhat outplay for 55%, the math shows the Bruins outplaying the Oilers. Because the Oilers outplayed (but to a lesser extent) for a longer period, largely in a single chunk (on top of the fact that even marginally ouplaying the Bruins defies expectations), the by eye crowd might applaud the Oilers effort.

    NEAT.

    Oh, and GMoney, please let me know if I totally missed the point.

  41. kinger_OIL says:

    – G’s stats help the narrative: Here’s what happened: “Oil come out fired up, Boston starts trying: they say: “wow this team really sucks”, so after hammering them, they ease off. This is what good teams do in sport, especially in the middle of long seasons. Then at the end of the game, the Bruins put the heat on again, after coasting for a long time”

    – It’s a great way of quantifying the reality of sport by the actors: who don’t know corsi, but know when they are better, and when to step it up.

    – Awesome stuff G

  42. Pajamah says:

    G Money:
    I know it’s bad form to quote your own Twitter feed, but I thought my riff on a quote by Steven Novella was vaguely clever (and relevant due to the particularly acute level MSM garbage recently).

    The chart on your most recent post gave me a giant math boner.

    We always look at a muddled mess of stats post game, and if your percentage is high = good, low = bad, but it doesn’t tell you score effects, or swings throughout.

    I’d love to see this done each game, but I’ve already navigated away from your site. Did you compile this, or where can we see these game to game?

  43. Adam Wu says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – G’s stats help the narrative:Here’s what happened: “Oil come out fired up, Boston starts trying: they say: “wow this team really sucks”, so after hammering them, they ease off.This is what good teams do in sport, especially in the middle of long seasons.Then at the end of the game, the Bruins put the heat on again, after coasting for…

    At the time they supposedly “eased off”, the score was tied. Good teams do not ease off when the result is still in doubt.

  44. G Money says:

    Yeti,
    Quinlan,
    BONE207,

    Thanks for the kind words!

  45. G Money says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Spot on. That’s a good summary.

    The key ancillary point is this: this insight as to what happened in the game occurred because the two ‘sides’ didn’t agree and we made the effort to dig in and ask why.

    Rather than polarizing and declaring that one side was right and one side was wrong.

    It’s not about taking sides, it’s about using all the information we’ve got to better understand the game we love (and the team with which we have distinct love/hate relationship!).

  46. G Money says:

    Pajamah,

    Hi P,

    The specific chart I clipped is from naturalstattrick. This is definitely my favourite style of in-game Corsi event chart. All the other sites (e.g. hockeystats, war on ice) provide event charts that show the two teams as two different lines, which is useful but to my eyes the flow of the game isn’t nearly as clear.

    My goal is to show that same style of chart for Dangerous Fenwicks.

  47. G Money says:

    Adam Wu,

    I agree. I think the chart does clearly imply that the ceiling for the Bruins is higher than that for the Oilers. Then again, as was mentioned earlier, the Oilers roster was one of the weakest we’ve seen in recent times.

    So to be on par or better than the Bruins for more than half the game was a heck of an accomplishment.

    And the pattern does imply to some extent that it wasn’t just a matter of a better team pushing and then sitting back. If they were truly that much better, they would have kept that level of pressure the whole game and won in a cakewalk.

    That they didn’t is to my eyes a likely indicator of an unsustainable level of effort.

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