A WARM DECEMBER

by Lowetide

Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle have a story to tell about their Oilers days—call it ‘To Hell and Back’, with more hell and very little back—and I think most of us would like to see a happy ending. Maybe they won’t win Stanley together at the new building, but a turn north in year six wouldn’t go amiss.

GOOD DAY SUNSHINE, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
  • Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
  • Oilers in December 2014: 2-8-4
  • Oilers in December 2015: 2-0-0 (WOOT!)
  • Oilers after 27 in 2014-15: 7-15-5, 19 points (-37 GD)
  • Oilers after 27 in 2015-16: 10-15-2, 22 points (-13 GD)

Last night was an unlikely victory, I think that is probably a fair description. The Oilers were never in the game, as you will see in a minute, but they won it because Anders Nilsson had some kind of weird B12 issue a couple years back and the hockey Gods decided we needed another gift between the pipes. Hopefully we will see Edmonton build a defense before the Swede goes mad.

standings

There is a window here where Edmonton could close the gap. The last two games (both wins) and last 10 games (4-4-2) suggests enough positives for Edmonton to hold their own, perhaps turn north. This week (Buffalo, San Jose, NY Rangers) could see them begin the climb. This morning, Edmonton is out of the basement and No. 27 overall.  And they may have a goalie.

OILERS BLUE, LAST NIGHT

oilers blue nov 30

Today, we get to talk about shuffling and just how stubborn this blog’s author can be. Here we go;

  • Darnell Nurse is making mistakes by the dozen, but you have to acknowledge the situation. He played 20 minutes and 7:12 was against Benn’s line with about 7 minutes against Spezza. 42 percent against that? He spent 15:14 with Sekera and 3:17 with Schultz. It is coming, people, like a thief in the night. The Lowetide blog also endorses the penalty. He is 20. 20.
  • Justin Schultz went 3-8 in 4:44 with Gryba but was better elsewhere. He is not a natural defender, it is foreign to him, like me with those damn bags they have at the grocery store for tomatoes. I can never get sides to separate, drives me mad, and then my wife comes over and does it in three seconds. I anticipate a change in pairings (more in a minute, hold back your water) and suspect JS will get Klefbom or Nurse. He is an unusual player, his shots are from Laredo sometimes, he seems to place them or they land on the moon. It is goofy, and I don’t like it.
  • Oscar Klefbom performed acceptably on a night when survival was success. He played against one of the best lines in the NHL, but played only 3:45 with Fayne and they were split after going 2-11 Corsi events together. He was fine with Gryba—I hate this pairing—going 8-9 in 10:53. We may see that again on Sunday.
  • Andrej Sekera had a strong evening despite the numbers, lordy I love those veteran blue. We won’t give him credit in five years, but he is an enormous help to Nurse in these early days. Had some nice headman passes and skated miles in each corner of his own zone. Really getting his game together now, this is a good NHL player.
  • Eric Gryba is like a song in your head that you cannot lose. Jeans On, by David Dundas, that kind of song. He played as listed above, and this was one of his better games, but for me the big man is getting far too much playing time. Did Todd McLellan have a Gryba in San Jose? Ah yes, Douglas Murray, I forgot.
  • Mark Fayne is a good NHL player but I don’t think he is a Todd McLellan-type and I know he isn’t a Peter Chiarelli type. I have mentioned those things before, but they had nothing to do with last night. Fayne was a day late and a dollar short in every sortie he saw against Dallas. Blew a shoe, hocked a loogie, it was bad as bad can be last night. He will find a chair Sunday.
  • That said, I will defend him as one of the four best options on this team right now. Brandon Davidson may change my mind, Eric Gryba won’t and I suspect we are about to find out about Justin Schultz, again. I think Fayne is gone, only a matter of time. He is NOT so bad as to be the No. 5D on this team, let alone No. 7.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

oilers f nov 30

  • Lander-Gazdic played with Khaira until Todd McLellan decided to JFJ him. I forgot Brad Winchester played for McLellan in SJS until I got a DM mentioning it last night. Anyway, the 4line looked good with Khaira or Purcell—Pakarinen didn’t play with Lander last night according to War-on-Ice.
  • Khaira-Draisaitl-Hall had a 7-11 run together after the big man replaced Jordan Eberle, and this line was involved (along with Eberle) in one or both goals. I like Khaira but this isn’t going to last based on his offensive resume. Why do Oilers coaches do funny things? Hall is a sublime talent, impact player entering the prime of his career. Facing one of the strongest lines in the NHL, he popped a goal, hammered a defender, skated miles.
  • Pakarinen-Nuge-Eberle was pretty solid compared to the other lines, but there was little thunder. Purcell was also on this line a lot (Scotty Bowman used to have games like this one, dump the slow and push the fast. He would make up his mind in the first five minutes, that’s how Reggie Houle saved the end of John Ferguson’s career). Nuge made a few nice plays his wingers couldn’t cash, Eberle is coming out of his slump, Purcell would be a good winger if Poo can’t go.
  • Korpikoski-Letestu-Hendricks are starting to tighten and part of it is some nice forechecking by Korpikoski. The line has had a nice run, hope they continue to be productive. That was a very good line they faced last night.

Nilson now has a .921SP and .925SP at evens, good for No. 19 overall at evens. He is winning the job outright, but at some point Talbot will have to play. I suspect it will take a loss though, unless the young Swede is exhausted. The acquisition of Nilsson for Liam Coughlin will be a major story of the offseason should this continue.

Music! Lordy. Do you remember the last game against them? Splendid effort by Nilsson, now they have to figure out how to keep that structure for longer. Things that are a worry;

  • Forwards appear to have found a soft area up the middle. Several breakdowns right through the middle of the ice.
  • Mark Fayne is not good at that standup the forward thing McLellan prefers. It probably gets him traded, sooner than later.
  • The power play with Justin Schultz lacks a hammer.

A big win for the Condors last night and some of the young pros had solid nights. Bogdan Yakimov returned and had an assist, Griffin Reinhart played well based on reports and the offense was driven much of the time by actual prospects. Good result.

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Mr. D.

And that 4 other players can be responsible for your number good or bad. You make a good breakout pass and your forward turns it over. The other team enters your zone and gets shots. The player who did it right gets shots against towards corsi. How many pucks do we turn over in the neutral zone. Great stat for the person who doesn’t know any better.

Ca$h-McMoney!:
Woodguy,

The lack of understanding about the stat continues to blow me away.

Corsi is, and always has been, about large samples.Individual corsi for an individual game doesn’t say a whole heck of a lot, I think everyone who subscribes to the metric understands that.

You get out corsi’d for one game and you win anyway, fine.So be it.Happens all the time.

You get out corsi’d for an entire season and still win a bunch of games, history shows us quite clearly (Toronto, Colorado, Calgary last three years) that it’s a problem.

It’s about sustainability of performance, and it has proven it’s worth in that regard.Getting out-corsied is simply worrisome if it’s happening regularly and the point is to see the team get better over time.

AsiaOil

Honestly if you put your quantitative backward looking analysis together with my more qualitative real time emphasis – you probably get something that works best for goalies. So much of their game is mental and that can change for better or worse quickly depending on context. You’re doing good stuff though and cudos.

G Money:
AsiaOil,

And thanks!

BlueNoteNorth

Woodguy,

I had similar seats in the 1980s and early 1990s. Row 8, right on the blue line.

Gave them up when the price was raised to $23 a seat after Oilers 5th cup – because you know, it was highway robbery.

Now I see a handful of games behind the visitor’s net – for a heck of a lot more!

N64

oliveoilers: The two titans of hockey thinking only met once in there lives, with a bizarre incident in a Zurich hotel, when McCarthy accused Korzi of hiding under his bed wearing nothing but red underwear

Korzi was never the same after the Swede Jakob Borgmästare invented the neutral zone trap.

G Money

AsiaOil,

And thanks! 🙂

stevezie

VOR,

Great story. I believe he was also offered a contract by the Oilers but choe Detroit because of their superior job openings.

Went on to light up the league even when Neely was injured. Helluva player.

G Money

AsiaOil: and this is why you could not see that Nilsson had good potential. He was the best goalie in camp – full stop.

My good man, this is an example of a ‘straw man’.

At no point did I suggest that Nilsson was a bad goalie.

My point ALL ALONG was that a handful of pre-season games provides NO basis for drawing conclusions. And in fact, after his first five games (as opposed to his most recent six games), you would have been concluding that his pre-season was indeed completely misleading, given his poor results.

Similarly, Talbot’s six mostly-outstanding games to start the season should count no more than his poor six games of recent.

I continue to be amazed and amused that people claim my ’55 games’ standard is too small a sample size (when the whole point of the exercise was to find out if it was adequate sample size, which turns out it almost always is, which means those who claim otherwise are doing so without ANY evidence), while happily anointing a starter on the basis of six games.

Maybe LT needs to make a link to ‘recency bias’ a sticky link on his pages.

Jethro Tull

Armchair GM: IIRC McCarthy died without completing his lifelong dream of creating a useful metric for ‘grit factor.’

Yes, but his work on EyeGlare/60 and his remorseless persecution of anybody even suspected of writing down numbers in relation to game, other than the 50/50, won a place in our hearts.

Korzi, on the other hand, sealed his own fate when he famously quoted; “Good players are good, they are good team mates. We can see this and it can be measured. Why you heff to be mad?”

VOR

Water Fire,

Do you know the story of the Engineer?

He was too small and way too slow to play Major Junior hockey. The year he was 19 he had a hell of a Junior B season. Numerous accounts say 11 different NHL scouts watched him play at least once. They, and every rating service, were unanimous in concluding he was a terrible skater. He couldn’t get so much as a training camp invite. Well, actually the Engineer couldn’t even get a college program to take a look.

At nineteen, he dropped out of high school and was pumping gas in Markham, Ontario when he got the call that changed his life. The Rodney Dangerfield of college hockey was interested in auditioning him. At that point the university in question had been in NCAA sports for over 100 years and won exactly dick all. They couldn’t really be picky in who they got to play for them.

The Engineer had a pretty good year, something like 49 points in 32 games. In his sophomore year he had 83 points in 33 games, the most, at that time, in NCAA history. Then in his Junior year he had 91 points in 33 games and took his team to a National Championship. By this point every NHL team was scouting the Engineer. All but one backed off because it was clear the kid was too slow to ever play NHL hockey. Actually the consensus was he was too slow to even play AHL hockey.

The Detroit Redwings made the Engineer a contract offer. At the time they were the worst team in the NHL and headed to being the worst NHL team of all time. They didn’t figure they had much to lose. They signed the kid and stuck him straight in the NHL and we all know what happened, the poor guy tanked. In fact, the Engineer was on pace for the worst plus/minus in NHL history when he mercifully got sent to Adirondack in the AHL.

It would be nice to be able to say he tore the AHL up, but the truth is the Engineer sucked so badly he ended up on the fourth line. Which is where his ‘foot speed issues” stopped mattering. Because one the aspects of skating is hard to judge is how important it is to be able to move as a unit (that thing about flow). The Engineer and his knuckle dragging wingers moved like one, right from the first. The other thing is one of those goons was the real deal. He could slow the game down to his speed, mainly because even at 20 Bobby Probert was the most frightening player anybody in the AHL had ever seen.

The Engineer tore up the AHL with Probert on his wing. They both got long looks the next year at the Redwings’ training camp and this time they stuck (well there were some hiccups). The Engineer was now the checking center on the worst team in the NHL. His speed issues should have made that impossible. But he actually thrived in the Shawn Horcoff part of the Vollman Chart. His plus minus was very solidly in the plus. Reports from the time talk about how sad it was that he didn’t have the speed to do the job effectively, having to cheat for defence. Despite that by 27 he was playing the tough minutes and was third on the team in scoring. Given what happened next most hockey people now believe all the experts were just wrong – that the Engineer could flat out fly.

Whatever, the Engineer had certainly proven he could think fast enough to make up for his slow feet (if he really was slow) when he was traded. There was this team that had a young gun who would shoot from anywhere and everywhere and a remarkable amount of the time the puck would go in. What he couldn’t do was play defence. The shooter also struggled to play with centers with speed (though that would change), always playing catch up. What was needed was a glacially slow center with decent offence and good defensive sense.

Over the next 14 years the Engineer:

-became one half of one of the game’s greatest scoring tandems
-became the highest scoring undrafted player of all time
-became the highest scoring NHL player to ever play in the NCAA
-scored more points after 28 than any player in NHL history
-became the only player in NHL history to center three different 50 goal scorers
-retired 5th in NHL history is assists and 12th in points
-his alma mater, RPI, actually created a Sports Wall of Honor and made him their first inductee, calling him the ultimate “Engineer.”

Most amazingly perhaps is that Adam Oates went from being considered far too slow for the NHL to lighting up NHL defences with Peter Bondra. In those years defences would back off as soon as Washington gained control of the puck lest Bondra and Oates get behind them. Oates says himself his skating didn’t improve he just learned to do more with what ability he did have.

Connor McDavid is generationally fast. What makes that important isn’t the speed itself, but what he can do at that speed. Mike Modano remains the comparable. He had blinding speed coupled with the ability to make great plays at that speed and that is McDavid right now. Maybe one day McDavid will learn to do things at that speed that no-one has ever been able to do.

But it will remain probable that in a straight out race McDavid will never be quite as fast as the last generational skater to play for the Oilers, Andrew Cogliano. I’d argue McDavid’s amazing talent just makes him look much, much faster than the Cogliano’s and Marchant’s of the world. In any case, if he does as much with his generational speed as Oates did with his terrible skating we should all be delighted.

AsiaOil

G Money,

By the way – thanks again for the game stats you are compiling – great stuff that provides a ton of context for post-game musing.

AsiaOil

Oh my friend G – Scrivens is likely done as an NHL goalie and Talbot has lost his job to a KHL guy. We both agreed that Ramo was junk but disagree on Enroth. You think he’s a starter while I thought his ceiling is high-end backup (a role he is excelling in this year I might add). Jury is still out on Talbot and Enroth – but the story is already over for Scrivens and Ramo.

Please consider that your approach is entirely based on trailing indicators – and this is why you could not see that Nilsson had good potential. He was the best goalie in camp – full stop. What you’ve done is a good start – but unless these trailing indicators are supported by some real time assessment of current play – it will have severe limitation in telling us what will happen next. My calls at the end of TC were as follows:

Scriven – demote / not an NHL goalie
Talbot – wildcard, good potential, but high risk with no demonstrated performance as workhorse starter
Nilsson – big, athletic, playing very well so a good risk as backup that might pay off

I’d call that batting 1.00 🙂

But I very much caution pushing our luck on Nilsson – he’s not ready to be a 60 game a year guy and might never be. It’s a bit like anointing Drai a top line RW after his first 2 weeks this year. We need to nurture Nilsson’s development and get the guy some support ASAP.

G Money:
AsiaOil,

It’s now in solid starter’s destruction territory.Will be interesting to see if he actually recovers by next year, and what that will take, per our bet.

You might actually win one or two of the four points.

Armchair GM

oliveoilers: Indeed, Vladymyr Korzi’s work was answered by a big hearted, life long hockey coach from a small Saskatchewan town called Randy McCarthy,

Tonka Construction Toys Big Book Of Hockey(TM) 1987

IIRC McCarthy died without completing his lifelong dream of creating a useful metric for ‘grit factor.’

G Money

oliveoilers,

Heh heh, you guys should collaborate on this History of Hockey.

For greatest appeal, stick figure cartoon format recommended!!

Armchair GM

G Money,

Thanks, G Money. You’re one of the reasons I love this blog so much so providing you with a smile is about the most I can repay the ‘math’ people for sharing their insights to the game for me. (I can follow the math, I just can’t do it myself.)

Jethro Tull

Armchair GM: What is not well-known is that the Soviets invented corsi first.It was developed by Vladymyr Korzi for the Red Army team and is the main reason the Soviets instituted 5 man units at the core of their hockey philosophy.From Korzi’s Little Red Book, “hockey players do not have an individual statistic from my ‘Korzi’ calculations.The statistical analysis belongs to groups of players.As such, a coach may be able to determine the optimal deployment of players as groups of 5.I would caution against using this statistic to provided insight at any particular game or small groups of games although a good sense of the effectiveness of a group of players should arise over time.P.S. This type of analysis is unlikely to ever gain acceptance in Canada as the capitalists move players from line to line in random according to a coach’s hunch or a player’s ‘hot streak’.As such it is inevitable that the Soviet method of hockey shall reign supreme!”

Vladymyr Korzi(Sept 1, 1972)

Indeed, Vladymyr Korzi’s work was answered by a big hearted, life long hockey coach from a small Saskatchewan town called Randy McCarthy, who publicly and controversially eschewed all empirical evidence, reasoning that “I’ve been a peewee coach 30yrs. I know what I see. I think I know a little about winning, if ever there’s a concern.”

The two titans of hockey thinking only met once in there lives, with a bizarre incident in a Zurich hotel, when McCarthy accused Korzi of hiding under his bed wearing nothing but red underwear.

The two schools of philosophy have never been married, with experts predicting a grand unified theory of relativity being unveiled before this.

Tonka Construction Toys Big Book Of Hockey(TM) 1987

Adam Wu

delooper: We could manufacture an empirical evidence-based metric for eyeglow/60 as well.That would not make it meaningful, or at least, its importance would be dubious.

While your hypothesis is a likely one, you wouldn’t KNOW that it is not meaningful until you actually did the work to validate it.

And that’s the thing about corsi. It HAS been validated. Repeatedly.

G Money

Water Fire: It’s hard to get enough eyeball time on an individual to make a fair call.
Good math helps dispell myths and explain outliers. But as he says t he math verifies what the eyes see. People love to complicate things. Both are good and useful.

Precisely.

Not only impossible to get enough eyeball time (I miss games, periods, or shifts … the stats don’t), but at EV, there are 5 of “our” players on the ice at any given time.

An individual has zero chance of beig able to iso on any one of them and notice what they’re doing well or not doing well unless they replay the game five times.

Otherwise, you’re only going to notice them when they do something of note, whether for good or for bad.

So I am astounded at the arrogance of those who think so highly of their own grossly limited observation capacity that they are able to say “no, the stats are wrong because I saw them wrong” without any self-awareness of those limitations at all.

Especially given their comments more often than not simply confirm that their understanding of the game itself is weak. Astonishing. Truly.

G Money

Armchair GM,

LOL. Awesome.

Armchair GM

Woodguy: corsi

What is not well-known is that the Soviets invented corsi first. It was developed by Vladymyr Korzi for the Red Army team and is the main reason the Soviets instituted 5 man units at the core of their hockey philosophy. From Korzi’s Little Red Book, “hockey players do not have an individual statistic from my ‘Korzi’ calculations. The statistical analysis belongs to groups of players. As such, a coach may be able to determine the optimal deployment of players as groups of 5. I would caution against using this statistic to provided insight at any particular game or small groups of games although a good sense of the effectiveness of a group of players should arise over time. P.S. This type of analysis is unlikely to ever gain acceptance in Canada as the capitalists move players from line to line in random according to a coach’s hunch or a player’s ‘hot streak’. As such it is inevitable that the Soviet method of hockey shall reign supreme!”

Vladymyr Korzi (Sept 1, 1972)

Water Fire

Love G’s work. I don’t find it hard to assess players. It’s hard to get enough eyeball time on an individual to make a fair call.

Good math helps dispell myths and explain outliers. But as he says t he math verifies what the eyes see. People love to complicate things. Both are good and useful.

Fayne is a serviceable player, which is a useful player. The Oilers need to get from over taxing those types to putting them in a place to succeed and developing proper support.

The issue with breakouts has a lot to do with forwards methinks. Tmac is on it. In this we trust

G Money

This is the game flow chart edited to show only Fayne’s DFF, with his shifts highlighted.

Check out the four second shift that resulted in a goal against late in the second. When I first put up this chart, I thought it was a bug because the shift wasn’t highlighted, but the goal was (which means the program was assigning that event as having him on the ice).

I had to check the NHL TOI to discover it was a four second shift, and then expand the x axis to be able to actually see a few of his shifts.

http://i.imgur.com/UN4Sobw.png

G Money

AsiaOil,

It’s now in solid starter’s destruction territory. Will be interesting to see if he actually recovers by next year, and what that will take, per our bet.

You might actually win one or two of the four points.

AsiaOil

Starter’s dip 🙂

LadiesloveSmid: Scrivens allows 4 in the first

Mr DeBakey

commonfan14: Sometimes I’m tempted to say that it must just be as simple as the fact that the name is unforgivably terrible, but it’s probably more complicated than that.

That’s a big part of it
If it was called Redzone Percentage, you’d be seeing headlines on Steve Simmons’ columns like “Leafs Blue in Redzone Disaster”

Another reason is it destroyed narrative, the facts regularly wouldn’t support stories of how “Beloved Player Sparkled” or “Evil Euro Floated”
The story-tellers fought back with references to greasy areas and such
Now the spreadsheet boys are heading there
Stay tuned Monday for another episode of The Edge of Skates

Gerta Rauss

TMac Saturday audio

http://oilers.nhl.com/club/podcastplayer.htm?pid=98&iid=53037

-Eberle and Klefbom had maitenance days…8 games in 14 nights…both expected to be ready tomorrow

-Ference has an ailment…see if we can get him repaired as well

-Davidson should be ready to go tomorrow

-Fayne had a tough night…others did as well….”we’ll get him back to where he needs to be”

-Pouliot will not play tomorrow, potentially an IR situation

-At some point we’ll need to get Cam in the net….Nilsson will play tomorrow

delooper

Adam Wu: Being called “evangelists” when they are using an empirical, evidence-based metric might be part of it.

We could manufacture an empirical evidence-based metric for eyeglow/60 as well. That would not make it meaningful, or at least, its importance would be dubious.

leadfarmer

7 players have played 26 or 27 of the 27 games played. 3 of them are Lander Purcell and Letestu. Nuge is one of the players and I would hardly consider him healthy this year. To say this team has been decimated by injuries would be an understatement

russ99

Ference on IR? What did he have a hangnail?

Hope this is a precursor to a season-long conditioning assignment to Bakersfield.

Pouliot also on IR and Hamilton called up.

Trade imminent? That’s a lot of cap room on the IR…

striker

Woogie63: Scrivens pull after 20 minutes of work.

4 goals allowed on 11 shots.

His confidence must be shot. It’s been a lifetime since Spring 2014 for him.

Gayfish

Lowetide: Everyone gets detention after school and I don’t even care if you miss you bus!!!!

“You don’t dismiss me, the bell dismisses me!”

kinger_OIL

GCW_69,

– Yeah GCW: one off that list of FA, and one RFA from a team needing cap room: problem solved. Chia has experience with this, and should be all over relieving cap issues for effective D.

– Need 2 D age 24-29 in mid-career form, with upside or fully developed but still km’s left in tank. So better than Gryba for upside, and no more Captains with wheels already clearly falling off.

Water Fire

G Money:
Water Fire,

Man, that’s tough.

I caught a mild cold or flu or something about hmmm, eight years ago, and it triggered vertigo so bad that after a few days, I ended up going to emergency.They checked me for a stroke just in case.But overall, I was healthy as a horse.

It went away after about another week, which was a horrible week.

The worst part is that it was recurring, coming back and hitting me out of the blue every six months to a year, and lasting for a few days.Initial diagnosis was BPV, but it did not fit the profile, and the common treatment for BPV didn’t help at all.

Eventual diagnosis was vestibular neuritis, which can be recurring.Thankfully, each succeeding bout was milder and shorter.

However, to this day I’m still not 100% recovered in the sense that I’m far more sensitive to head movement than I used to be.So I avoid roller coasters (which sucks cause my kids are old enough to go on them and I want to go with them!), and I even avoid doing movements like spinning elbows and spinning back kicks in Muay Thai, as doing more than a few reps tends to make me queasy.

Can’t imagine being a professional athlete and having to manage through that.

I was taking out a dead apple tree, being careful too, and was pushing the 6 foot tree forward. A 2″ cut off branch was pointing toward me. It slipped through gloved hands and I took it dead low centre forehead.

Wife calls out the kitchen window ‘you okay’. I was seeing stars a bit but carried on.

Today I was caulking crown moulding and tipped my head back a bit and almost went off the ladder. The apple tree attack was 5 years ago.

Brought home to a finer point the consequences of concussion. The league loses a lot of respect in my eyes for not taking simple steps to protect the players and the tens of thousands of youth who play hockey, given the hockey world follows their lead.

Aron_S

Woogie63,

Holy smokes. Is anyone watching? I am not, but his ineptitude is record low at the moment. I really respect his off-ice demeanour, and wonder if he’s seeing a therapist or goalie coach to try and pull himself out of this. If he plays every other game for the Condors he could sewer their season.

DevilsLettuce

I fully believe another team will take on Fayne, absolutely, doesn’t mean he’s a top 4 D for the Edmonton Oilers, He’s not.

Andrew Ference was decent 4 years ago too!

Woooo.

Fayne does not match up against the big bad centres in the west, send him to NYI for one of their unused guys upfront.

If Chia was any good Fayne and Scrivens for Harmonic lol

G Money

This is Fayne BTW:
http://i.imgur.com/noIamQN.png

You can’t explicitly see it, but it’s pretty obvious he got benched after the Oilers gave up the goal late in the second!

Woogie63

Scrivens pull after 20 minutes of work.

G Money

By the way, I’m working on a cool new visualization. Well, I think it’s cool, anyway.

I’m trying to show a ‘game flow’ chart, but for each individual defenseman and defensive pairing. Might do it for forward lines too. Just like the game flow, it shows the plus and minus of the shot attempts, with the shifts for each of the players shaded onto the chart.

I have the basic chart (for example, here is the chart for Gryba):
http://i.imgur.com/0I2iP0u.png

You can see why Gryba’s numbers looked OK – after a horrific end of 1st/start of 2nd, he was actually on ice for some pretty decent pushback to end the game. And NO goals against.

Just need to add the shadings so you can see when he was actually on the ice, not just guessing.

Ideally, I should be able to figure out how to put all the charts on one display, so you can see the gameflow for every D on a single image.

Cool? Interesting? Possibly valuable? Yes? No?

LadiesloveSmid

Lowetide: I stand with you, that was the reasoning behind qualifying things with ‘if it works out’ in the original post.

I’m one to give it a good sample size before I make big claims, LT.

he’s had a good stretch, I wouldn’t call him a “vezina finalist” quite yet

LadiesloveSmid

blainer:
1-0 condors.. currie SH..

Man that stadium is empty.

Scrivens allows 4 in the first

Bag of Pucks

G Money:
Bag of Pucks,

Fayne definitely grades worse with DFA than he does with Corsi, so for sure part of the story is the calibre of chances.

Fayne was at 170 DFA/60 yesterday, the worst individual score ever recorded for an Oiler player with more than 2:00 of TOI in a game! (since I started tracking this season, anyway)

To put that in perspective, DFA essentially normalizes shots against as if they are a ~28 ft wrist shot. So that number means that in an hours worth of 5v5, Fayne is giving up 170 x 28 ft wrist shots, or almost one every twenty seconds!

It’s not the whole story, though, because even after accounting for the danger of chances given up, he still looks better by on-ice results than he does by eye.*I* would say.LT for example I think sees Fayne better than I do, which is actually more in line with the objective numbers.

Assessing defensemen is hard.(Just ask MacT)

Also on the topic of +-, I agree. It’s quite funny since most would consider me a fairly hardcore and rigorous numbers guy, but I do end up defending +- every once in a while.It is not a ‘worthless’ stat, not at all.It is an extremely noisy stat, which means you need a LOT of signal (i.e. ice time) before you can rely on the stat.But it does have value.

Good stuff. Helps to explain why TMac showed him the press box door and the popcorn machine.

AsiaOil

We should be both buyers and sellers up to the trade deadline. Would be way better to only need one more dman over the summer. Getting Hamonic and Okposo this year would solve two issues at once (as long as we can resign Okposo to a reasonable deal). But selling Fayne, Shultz and Gryba at the deadline for whatever is fine with me to clear out the deadwood – then lose Niki and Ference in the summer since I doubt anyone wants them.

But no one is talking about what to do with Talbot if he does not recover PDQ. Given what he cost to obtain – you recoup some of that if possible in January if he does not have a big turn around in December. Nice that Nilsson is playing well – but Talbot need to get his junk together soon or it’s a problem given his UFA status.

frjohnk:
UFA is not the play next summer for D men. With the salary cap only increasing by $1M if teams are lucky and the Oilers being one of the few teams that will have lots of cap space to play with this summer, a better move might be like what Snow did to get Boychuk and Leddy.IIRC, there will be 13 teams close to cap next summer that may have to dump contracts, and there are 6 that have internal caps.Having cap space available is a tremendous asset.

Another play is to go after some of the RFA Dmen.

Hamonic might still be on the table.

But I wouldn’t go after any UFA Dmen.Only guy Id be in interested in is Buff.But We will have to overpay in money AND term to get Byfuglien which I’m not interested in doing.Somebody will get crazy and I can see Buff getting 7M for 7 years.

I hope that is not us.

"Steve Smith"

Lowetide: I stand with you, that was the reasoning behind qualifying things with ‘if it works out’ in the original post.

Look, LT, I’m not disagreeing that early returns on Nilsson have been positive, but your anointing him the 2018 Conn Smythe winner seems a little hasty.

blainer

LadiesloveSmid: the lineup today is just horrific, hard to support when you’re doubled in shots and Hamilton comes up to replace a top 6 body

McDavid, Pouliot, Yakupov, and now potentially Eberle out. Korpikoski, Gazdic, Khaira, Hamilton, Pakarinen in.

Hell, I miss Klinkhammer.

Enough with the quality man games lost, let’s get a little bit of luck in the injury department

And we haven’t even had Hall’s annual injury yet !

"Steve Smith"

Магия 10,

Right! I’d heard somewhere about his belief that you shouldn’t handle beans (if you know what I mean), but I’d somehow forgotten about it. Sorry, Buddha.

blainer

1-0 condors.. currie SH..

Man that stadium is empty.

jm363561

I just can’t believe Chiarelli didn’t sign Nilsson to a 2 or 3 year contract – what an idiot.
=======

Yes, I had been expecting V 2.0 to have been demanding PChia be fired for doing nothing about this!

The Oilers are 2-0-0 in December and a mere 5 points out of a playoff spot and the best LT can do is “WOOT”.

G Money

commonfan14,

Very well said. This must be why they named an entire House after you!