LEARNING THE TRADES

by Lowetide

I think we will see an active Peter Chiarelli after the break, with culling the major item. There are several men returning from the IR and 5,000 left-handed defensemen in the system, those things will be on the docket. A list of ‘possible’ exits might look like this:

  • R Teddy Purcell 35gp, 8-15-23.
  • D Justin Schultz 21gp, 1-3-4.
  • D Mark Fayne 25gp, 0-1-1.
  • D Nikita Nikitin 5gp, 0-1-1.

Chiarelli won’t trade all of those defensemen, but I bet he would like to, possibly retaining salary while also finding a replacement for Bogdan Yakimov in Bakersfield.

https://twitter.com/NicholsOnHockey/status/679020589256851456

Schultz is probably the most interesting player on the list, he is an RFA and the Oilers may have some interest in retaining him beyond this season (I think it unlikely). Nikitin and Fayne are veterans, depending on the market a team might grab one of them for insurance. Purcell is the only one of the group I would like to see retained.

Last year, I did a series of targets for ON (Habs here) and there are plenty of cool prospects in the Montreal system again. If the Oilers scouts were watching this night, I think they would have been wise to pay special attention to Michael McCarron. He isn’t coming here, folks. However, maybe Bud Holloway and a late pick can be had for Nikitin and salary retained. I promised you trades, I didn’t promise you sexy.

SEVEN OF NINE

7

One of the reasons Peter Chiarelli will probably want to deal at least one defender: This team needs to see Griffin Reinhart more in the second half of the season. At this point, he has played a dozen NHL games, suffered an injury (in Edmonton, don’t know why he missed games in Bakersfield this weekend but something happened, so it may be two injuries) and we really don’t have a feel for him yet.

If trades are not made, I think we may see the following after the deadline:

  • Andrew Ference LTIR
  • Nikita Nikitin and Mark Fayne in Bakersfield for the remainder of the year barring injury

OILERS BLUE, 2015-16 IN A BOX

OILERS DEFENSE OVER SEASON

If and when the veterans head to the AHL, the top 7D may look like this:

  • Klefbom—Sekera
  • Nurse—Schultz
  • Reinhart—Davidson
  • Gryba

I think the Oilers have to see about Reinhart, that is the task at hand for the second half of the season. They also simply must back off the minutes for Darnell Nurse—I have no idea why people are not talking about this more—and find a top pairing. I would think it obvious that Klefbom is the right man for the top pairing with Sekera, make it so Todd McLellan!

TALBOT!!!

talbot capture 1

Who was the last goalie you really liked? For me, it was Devan Dubnyk, but most would probably answer Dwayne Roloson and that makes sense. Man, I wish the Oilers of the era when they made good decisions most of the time, hope we can get back there again.

Among goalies who have started 15 or more games this season, Anders Nilsson (.910) ranks No. 25 in save percentage, Cam Talbot (.904) ranks No. 29. Amazing recovery from Talbot, hopefully this continues and we should probably start talking about the contract PC and Talbot’s agent settle on before the trade deadline (if things continue). Is it enough time, between now and the deadline, to trust the (hopefully positive) results? 15 more starts?

By the way, here are the EV SP numbers for each goalie (15 or more starts):

  • Nilsson’s .917EV SP ranks him in a tie for No. 28.
  • Talbot’s .902EV SP ranks him No. 36.

The Talbot spike is very impressive, he was so far back Red Light Racicot was giggling not so long ago.

TAYLOR HALL

Mr. Hall ranks No. 4 among all scorers in the NHL this season (the professional writers are going to need to stand on their head to keep him off the post-season All-Star team this time) and it is interesting to look at the even-strength totals of those top five scorers:

  1. Patrick Kane 36, 10-23-33
  2. Tyler Seguin 35, 15-17-32
  3. Taylor Hall 35, 12-19-31
  4. Jamie Benn 35, 11-19-30
  5. Vladimir Tarasenko 35, 15-12-27

If the Oilers get that power play figured out, and magically make the playoffs, Taylor Hall will be a strong candidate for a post-season award. I hope he gets the recognition he deserves, it was wildly unfair when the writers passed over him because of a ridiculous flaw in the voting a couple of years ago. Many have forgotten, but I have not, suspect you haven’t either.

harry1

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A quick note: Please have a safe and fun Christmas, everyone. As you know, I enjoy tipping a glass or two at Christmas, truth to tell my celebrating is already underway. I do not drink and drive, and one thing I really respect about you younger folks is that the drinking and driving among your group is far less than my generation. Keep it up! I am proud of you. Safe and happy, let’s meet back here on the 26th and rip apart the Canucks (and Flames). I will have my Christmas post tomorrow and the top 20 continues unabated.

Today at 10, the Lowdown on TSN1260. Two guests today, Darcy McLeod from Because Oilers and Steve Lansky from Big Mouth Sports. We will talk the hockey and some other things. Merry Christmas, it is going to be a wonderful year ahead.

153 comments
0

You may also like

0 0 vote
Article Rating
153 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Bank Shot

speeds: It’s one of the factors in evaluation, but not the only one –we’re not talking about whether EDM should claim him on waivers, there’s also the cost of whatever you’d have to give up to get him.

Well Weber is one of the very best defensemen in the game so you won’t get him for free. I suspect RNH isn’t enough to interest Poile but I’m baffled that Oilers fans wouldn’t be all over it.

As I see it the Oilers basically have a 5 year window to keep the core together before they become ridiculously top heavy at forward.

Eberle will want a raise in 3 years.
Hall will get a big raise in 4.
McDavid will probably be 10×8.
Draisaitl will want 7 if he keeps scoring.
RNH will be up in 5

What’s going to be left to flesh out the rest of the team st that point?

The Oilers will need to convert some of that salary to defense and goaltending. Might as well use the trade chips now when they have years left on their deals. Eberle or RNH with 1-2 years left on their deals get less valuable in trade. Less than they are worth now.

Might as well casH some assets if you can get the best player in the deal as well as fill a giant positional hole.

A team with McDavid and Weber is getting the Oilers into the playoffs and increases the odds that the Oilers can land those vet free agents that every year attempt to sign on with a winner rather than chase the most dollars.

The Oilers need to assemble the best collection of talent in the NHL to win a cup. The longer they wait, the more difficult that task will be. I think that’s well worth sacrificing some of the distant future.

And merry Christmas everyone. 🙂

jake70

Merry Christmas/happy season to all the posters and readers and to the blogmaster himself. Special shout out to those who normally celebrate this time with family/friends but find themselves solo for whatever reason – been there, done that a few times for work etc. have a drink and take care.

Bohologo

Магия 10: I always figure it’s his garage out back. Nice of the fellows who pitch in to keep it heated in winter. Before he heads in for dinner Merry Christmas and to all a good night.

Well, it may be a garage, but it’s a lounge to us.

We used to live in an old water tank on a rubbish tip. We got woken up every morning by having a load of rotting fish dumped all over us!

blainer

Pouzar: (

Yup.. lol.. Thank gord for good women to keep us in line..

Cheers Pouzar and Merry Xmas !!

blainer

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
All my family in England this Christmas. I’m in the desert in Arizona having some bubbles and steak on my own. So you’re all my family for today and tomorrow. Happy holidays to you all, once again.

P.S. if any of you are going to the Jan 12 game in Glendale I hope to see you there.

Actually that sounds quite nice to me. Love the season but its always sooo busy.

Wish I was there.. Went to palm springs for Xmas a couple of years ago and really enjoyed it.

Enjoy the holidays..

Oh well.. have to get back pouring more drinks..

Cheers !!

Pouzar

blainer: Dan Cleary was on his last chance Texaco in the summer of 05 I think. he ended up training with Chelios that summer in LA.

At the time he said he worked hard on his leg training to try and get faster.. He said that was his biggest weakness. IMO his biggest weakness was between his ears .. but behind every good man there is a strong woman. and his case is no different..

He worked his ass offthat summer and got a PTO from the wings . Acrazy good turn around and good story. He was 25 years old then and came back with increased speed and confidence.

To write Reinhart off this early is foolish. The problem at this point is we don’t have any info. Is he injured or was he scratched.Let’s just hope he is not pouting down there or that trade is in trouble.

If he takes the correct attitude and works his ass off he’ll be fine. He should get in touch with Drai’s trainer though.

Damn enigmatic Newfies!

Pouzar

Bruce McCurdy:
No, his price tag would only be about 80% lower than 19’s. Don’t exaggerate!

hee hee

Pouzar

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
Pouzar,

And he was on waivers, what, twice? Always saw him as a possible Pisani or Dvorak-lite.

He would have been nice to have to fill a hole in the top 9.

Hall-Drai-Purcell
MPS-Nuge-Eberle
Pouliot-McDavid-Yakupov

Looks like speed to burn on every line and at least one defensively responsible player in each spot.

Yup.

But we traded for Korpse

*shakes head*

square_wheels

oliveoilers,

I’d cross my fingers and pray to the Gords asking for both !

We were just having a conversation about how different liquor makes people behave.

Rum, you’re likely to be ok.

If it was Silk Tassel, lock yourself in the bathroom and hope she passes out.

jm363561

Christmas Day already here in the Philippines. No snow ….. Again!

Best wishes to all ot Lowetide and my thanks to LT for having created and managing such a great site.

My Christmas wishes, I hope Anton Lander becomes the player I know he can be; Griffen Reinhart becomes the player I think he can be; Brandon Davidson’s upward trajectory remains super nova; and one of the last two learns to shoot right.

Jethro Tull

square_wheels:
Bruce McCurdy,

Bailey’s AND Eggnog ? Wowzers, that’s some serious sweet drinkage.

Wife’s been pounding the Appleton’s 12yr reserve (brought in Jamaica) and egg-nog. I may or may not get lucky/shit beaten out of me.

Jethro Tull

Bruce McCurdy: Funny you should mention that, I just finished a nice tall glass of Bailey’s and egg nog, and now I’m going to have another!

LOL, the needle on Bruce’s Give-a-Fuck-o-meter just buried itself at zero!

Happy xmas, Bruce, have another one after that one for me!

Unwashed Oilfan

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

This is my second Christmas completely solo. Same as last year, trekking thru the Rockies on a snowboarding trip with no pre plans other than tonight and tomorrow night in Golden BC. Last year was tough, doing my best to stay away from family, this year I looked forward to it and am loving my trip so far!!

Cheers NYC!! And Happy Holidays!!!

square_wheels

Bruce McCurdy,

Bailey’s AND Eggnog ? Wowzers, that’s some serious sweet drinkage.

N64

Bruce McCurdy: Best wishes to all the regular and irregulars in Lowetide’s Lounge

I always figure it’s his garage out back. Nice of the fellows who pitch in to keep it heated in winter. Before he heads in for dinner Merry Christmas and to all a good night.

Bruce McCurdy

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
Bruce McCurdy,

The rest of the hockey world doesn’t think much of the Oilers’ players’ values.They are so far off base, I don’t know what to say other than to tell you it’s not worth stressing over.

Nuge doesn’t get you Jones and evidently Draisaitl may or may not get you Seversson.

So I say leave it be and enjoy some eggnog. A hat tip to you, sir. Merry Christmas!

Funny you should mention that, I just finished a nice tall glass of Bailey’s and egg nog, and now I’m going to have another!

square_wheels

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

Macdonald as well ( working from the iPad I was too lazy to go through the repeated logins when I’d have to look him up). Pronger’s last deal was some serious fuckery as well. I’m all for testing the limits of nearly everything, but how they continually slip out while Uncle Lou gets punished, tells me everything I need to know about Bettman and Co.

I’ve been very fascinated recently with PED’s in pro sports, curious if the NHL clamps down on them or is only concerned with the apparent cocaine issue ?

Bruce McCurdy

square_wheels:
Bruce McCurdy,

That deal was gross, I’m actually torn as to how to feel about it – bad for Nashville because as a small market team they got saddled with an egregious interpretation the cap contract, or good because Snider and Co still have a shitty D , and are having to bury some of the leagues worst contracts.

Whenever Ference’s contract tastes bad I think of Lecalvier’s. What a bunch of assholes.

Yes that deal was gross, Snider really put the screws to a business partner, with a deal that might cripple them if they matched or cripple them if they didn’t match. I wrote a post that day ripping Ed Snider and the horse he rode in on.

The hockey gords responded with Andrew MacDonald, signed by the Flyers to one of the worst contracts in NHL history that will be a boat anchor on Philly’s cap structure for the foreseeable future. This after they dodged a major bullet in screwing up the Pronger extension (they misinterpreted the over-35 clause in effect at the time), and used an amnesty buyout to rid themselves of the Bryzgalov gaffe. The MacDonald contract is going to be a pain in their ass until at least 2020 and longer if they buy him out. Breaks my heart, it really does(n’t).

N64

BONVIE: Poster’s name removed

Preserved for posteriors.
June 27, 2014 at 7:42 pm

Jethro Tull

Happy holidays, whatever the deuce you believe in!

square_wheels:
Bruce McCurdy,

That deal was gross, I’m actually torn as to how to feel about it – bad for Nashville because as a small market team they got saddled with an egregious interpretation the cap contract, or good because Snider and Co still have a shitty D , and are having to bury some of the leagues worst contracts.

Whenever Ference’s contract tastes bad I think of Lecalvier’s. What a bunch of assholes.

Andrew Macdonald? Philly’s salty tears over McDavid taste good. That Neuvirth, though. Damn.

Bruce McCurdy,

The rest of the hockey world doesn’t think much of the Oilers’ players’ values. They are so far off base, I don’t know what to say other than to tell you it’s not worth stressing over.

Nuge doesn’t get you Jones and evidently Draisaitl may or may not get you Seversson.

So I say leave it be and enjoy some eggnog. A hat tip to you, sir. Merry Christmas!

Bruce McCurdy

Best wishes to all the regular and irregulars in Lowetide’s Lounge.

As for gifts from the Oilers, I have the first two days of Christmas all figured out. A win over the Flames and a win over the Canucks would be sweet.

square_wheels

Bruce McCurdy,

That deal was gross, I’m actually torn as to how to feel about it – bad for Nashville because as a small market team they got saddled with an egregious interpretation of the cap contract, or good because Snider and Co still have a shitty D , and are having to bury some of the leagues worst contracts.

Whenever Ference’s contract tastes bad I think of Lecalvier’s. What a bunch of assholes.

Rube Foster,

Cheers. A balmy 20C here. But weird being on my own for this holiday but it fits the narrative from the past 15 months so all good. Thank you and a very merry to you, sir.

Bruce McCurdy

If I’m Poile the price in assets for Weber is (even) higher just because of the structure of his contract. Either that or they’ll want salary retained by their trading partner on the major contract coming back.

At the end of this season Nashville will have paid over half the $110 MM value in just 4 years, $56 MM down, just $54 MM to go for 10 more years. So that is a significant factor in real cash invested by the team which is a different equation than the cap hit that we usually apply. They are almost $25 MM ahead of the curve.

Moreover, Nashville would retain all of that cap recapture risk. I’m guessing they’ve reached the point where they’d rather just hang on to the guy and enjoy the “value years” of that pact.

A real poison pill from Ed Snider there.

BONVIE

sliderule:
It’s too funny listening to all the Reinhart can’t skate talk

Remember last year when the same talk was there on Leon.

When he won the oiler speed at their skills competition it died down and now they are saying it’s caused he worked hard all summer.Those that watched him pull away from people while carrying the puck in the playoffs know it was alway there.

I saw Reinhart get beat on a pinch ,turn and catch Malkin so you can’t tell me that he can’t skate.

If it wasn’t for the oiler log jam with bad defence contracts he would be playing here.

Totally agree I see it the same way as you, I think some people aren’t seeing this demotion as a development thing and a temporary numbers game, but rather a chance to jump all over a huge part of our future Defense in Rheinhart. It reminds me of a post I seen that made me laugh doing the same thing to Draisatel “the real deal” just after he was drafted because he was infatuated with Bennett kind of the way some have stars in their eyes for Barzal.

Poster’s name removed

As I get older I say things that I wouldn’t as a kid. Why go for a Euro, when taking a Canadian is so much safer, especially at the #3 slot…. Drashitty has for sure highest bust potential in top 5. Why gamble: Reisin, Rita, Mikhnov, Niinimaki, MPS: why do the Oilers think that because we once drafted Kurri in the 4rth round, we have to outsmart everyone else. From a risk management perspective, wouldn’t you rather take the next in a long line of Canadian born played elite hockey all their life in the most developed hockey nation in the world, or gamble that Drashitty somehow breaks all the rules, and becomes the first German-born Centre in the history of the NHL to play for 10+ years, having had only 2 years of elite hockey. I know which odds I’d take. The potential upside doesn’t warrant the downside. Maybe Drashitty is better then Bennett, maybe he is worse. Bennett though is probably 95% to play 500 games, save injuries. I’d say Leon is 15% chance to blow up good…I’d rather take the 10,000th Canadian to play in the NHL @ #3, then hope that Leon becomes the what 25th German (and the best one ever). Bennett is the responsible pick @ 3, Drashitty the cavalier #3 pick…And I like Leon: think he could be a fine player. I just know that Bennett is a lock… I just came up with that nickname, because if my 15% is right: I own that nick! God bless the Oil: smarter then everyone else…The Raptors this year, when the took the Brazilian @ 20, that’s different. No impact players have been drafted @ 20 in the NBA: so go for it. At 3 though: you want to minimize the downside.

bendelson

Best of the season to you all.

square_wheels

Ryan,

Merry Xmas to you, go drop $1500 on a Boxing Day sale – Miele or Bosch.

Or get the silicone out and spend the $1500 on bikes and tattoos like I would ?

Ryan

Great Scott!

My dishwasher is leaking on Christmas Eve.

Just awesome.

square_wheels

Bruce McCurdy,

And here I was researching Goligoski, trying to determine if there was some sort of mirage behind his minutes and point totals (being on the ice in Dallas seems to give competent D regular pts).

Larsen has tremendous wheels, far superior to Schultz, maybe he’s acquired the “calm” Dmen get from the 200 pro games ?

Good bet, far better than the 25M we’d have to pay Goligoski or the 50M Buff will get !

square_wheels

Bank Shot,

Now that I see how Clarke’s bat shit crazy contract actually plays out, I’m an even bigger fan of acquiring him. The issue is I don’t think they trade him, at least not this year when they’ve got a healthy Rinne and seem to be competing for a playoff spot.

Still think we wait to see how this 2016 cap plays out, teams who run into RFA issues might be malleable and I’d rather work from a position of strength with cap space.

Bruce McCurdy

admiralmark:
RexLibris,

Yup. Another great line is that Weber is at a very manageable Cap hit of $7.857 Mill. for the next 4 years! No mention of the same Cap hit for the 6 years on top of that.

I mean really? RNH + Drasaitl for 30 year old Weber. Yah k.
http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/40429/ramblings-should-the-predators-trade-shea-weber

Big difference between the next 4 seasons and the next 10 seasons. That’s a bit of a gaffe, Mr. Burnside.

I cannot envision a single scenario where the Oilers would give up TWO of their THREE top young pivots to fill another need in the line-up. That’s just batshit crazy. Or maybe just batshit lazy — let’s just toss a few names out there without giving it even a moment’s critical thought.

Ice Sage

Deck the Hall with bows from LT…

all I got, still shopping 😉

Best of the Season to all,
Brighter Days are ahead

Bruce McCurdy

Rube Foster:

Bruce, if I may, permit me tome you a question. Jon Willis’s article on Phil Larson has me hopeful. I’ve always felt that our defence unit could benefit from a Norm Maciver type of player.Larsen already has 125 NHL games within his development curve and given that he appears to have taken a few more steps in his development in the KHL, do you think he could become Norm Maciver?

That would be awesome. I really, Really liked Norm Maciver, he was the perfect partner for Dave Manson which was no mean feat. Larsen has more chaos in his game — OK, “way more” chaos in his game — but he has some similar attributes as Maciver in that he is mobile, has a good first pass, and a nice vision of the ice, at least offensively. Larsen has the better shot of the two.

Larsen really has taken a step forward this year if boxcars are our guide, he has the exact smae 6-19-25 in 37 GP that it took him 56 games to reach last year. Then there’s that +/- which has surged from -11 to +22. Granted that’s with a new team which is +17 overall compared to his former club that was -42 last year. Still, +22 on a +17 team is pretty impressive; even acknowledging the limitations of the metric that is not easily done.

Centre of attention

Derek Roy is playing in the Spengler cup for team Canada, good for him.

Centre of attention

Bank Shot: One thing to take into consideration when comparing RNH to other players is opportunity provided them.

I frequently am seeing guys like Datsyuk, Pavelski, and Sedin thrown out as examples of guys that didn’t break out until later in their careers.

The big difference between them and RNH is that they were all held back by superior depth and didn’t get a chance to show what they were capable of offensively right off the bat. They started playing less EV and PP minutes than RNH.

RNH has been given loads of EV and PP minutes right from the start in a role playing with two high scoring wingers in Hall and Eberle.

He’s in his 5th NHL season now. He’s basically shown what he is offensively IMO.

Is there still potential for RNH to break out and find a new level? Sure I guess, but I wouldn’t say there is a high probability. The number of guys that break out after 5 years in the NHL is pretty low compared to the number that progress over 3-4 years to their relative offensive peak.

On the other hand you’ve got Weber who has the same career high in points as RNH. It’s a no brainer that you’d make that swap isn’t it?

This season is not even finished, RNH could break out this year once he is re-united with Hall + Drai.

I’m with LT, there may be a time in the future when a RNH trade makes sense, but this year it does not make sense at all. Especially in-season.

My 2 cents.

Bruce McCurdy

SwedishPoster:
God Jul fellow Lowetidians.

Shouldn’t that be “Gord Jul”?

Gord Jul to you, too, SwedishPoster. You are one of my faves around here, which is quite a compliment when I stop to think about it.

D'oh-ilers

I’d like to see a defenseman or two get moved so we can see Musil get an audition with the big club in the new year. I’m curious to see how he’s progressed from his last stint, and whether he has a potential future with the big club as an inexpensive #5-7 defender. Always liked his smart, simple play, just wish he had an extra gear and a right handed stick.

speeds

Bank Shot:

That’s not to say there is zero risk in acquiring the contract. There always is in any contract, but it appears to me that the fear of Weber’s contract is very out of line with what the actual downside risk is.

It’s one of the factors in evaluation, but not the only one – we’re not talking about whether EDM should claim him on waivers, there’s also the cost of whatever you’d have to give up to get him.

Bank Shot

admiralmark:
AsiaOil,

I do agree with what you are saying. The question ultimately to me however is how much of a negative draw is the last 5 years of Webers deal? 7.9 Mill for his 35yr-40yr age period is pretty horrendous. However his 30yr-35 yr time period(and contract) is exactly what the Dr ordered for this Oiler team.

The tail end of Weber’s contract would not be a hugely limiting factor for the Oilers IMO.

Weber’s cap recapture penalties would be absorbed mostly by Nashville because they have received the majority of the benefit from his frontloaded contract. If the Oilers traded Weber at 35 or 36 they would only owe $2.5 and $0.6 millions respectively. If they keep him beyond that, then there would be no recapture penalty for them.

Weber’s actual salary drops to $3 million at 37 years of age, so if he starts backsliding hard around 35-36 the Oilers would be able to trade him fairly easily within a couple of seasons to a team that wants to meet the cap minimum with less salary payout. He does not have a no trade clause so there isn’t a worry there.

That’s not to say there is zero risk in acquiring the contract. There always is in any contract, but it appears to me that the fear of Weber’s contract is very out of line with what the actual downside risk is.

StevieG_8

GriffCity:
Im afraid Reinhart just is not any good at the NHL level. I winced when the draft day trade happened and im wincing now. He is a big body but his foot speed is way too slowand his physical play does not make up for it and for a big man he plays a timid game. I honestly prefer Gryba over Reinhart. Now i know Gryba makes half a dozen goofs during a game but he also makes at least the same amount of good positive plays to help off-set the mistakes. His physical game is very good and that is so desperately needed on the blueline right now. That said, Nurse likes the physical stuff too but he is still very giraffe-esque out there and will need some more size and strength before he really starts to punish guys.

Reinhart was off loaded by the Isles and they stole two very good picks/players. I dont want to be negative before Christmas but i really dont think he has the chops to be an effective NHL’er in the way that the Oilers brass is hoping. I blame Bob Green and probbaly MacT too for getting in Chiarelli’s ear and making that trade happen because im sure they told him what a great player Reinhart was with the Oil Kings blah blah blah.

In other news, sign Teddy P to a short term deal asap. We need him and I feel like he could play up and down the line-up. No more than 3.5 mil max. Somewhere around 2.8 per would be sweet.

Merry Christmas Everyone !

Man, I’m the total opposite. I love Griff’s game. We seem to want to see players contributing right away but he needs time. I can see that he plays a quiet/simple game and I do believe that when Drai, McD and Nurse get’s the big money, he can give the defensive stability with a discount (due to maybe less offense/ flashiness to his game). I think I heard from the minors is that their aim is to have him hard to play against so I’m hopeful they accomplish that.

For asset management, I want a pick for Teddy. Once healthy, I want to give others more playing time. My projected lines would be:

Hall-RNH-Leon
Pou-McD-Ebs
Yak-Lander-Pak
Hendo-Letestu-Korpi
Gazdic

I love how TMac keeps Gazdic around. while the NHL tries to limit fighting, the goons will continue their cheap shots. Gazdic, I think, helps keep the game settled. I remember at a senators game highlights when 3 top players in their team were intentionally hit imo by a fourth liner. I’m glad TMac values this player despite limitations (I do think he made hime more useful by screening, protecting the puck in the o-zone). Though the contributions are still minimal I can see TMac appreciating that side of the game.

Rube Foster

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

NYCOIL,

Merry Christmas friend. Arizona is a wonderful place to be at this time of year. Steak & bubbly and a desert sunset sounds like a fabulous Christmas Eve!

sliderule

It’s too funny listening to all the Reinhart can’t skate talk

Remember last year when the same talk was there on Leon.

When he won the oiler speed at their skills competition it died down and now they are saying it’s caused he worked hard all summer.Those that watched him pull away from people while carrying the puck in the playoffs know it was alway there.

I saw Reinhart get beat on a pinch ,turn and catch Malkin so you can’t tell me that he can’t skate.

If it wasn’t for the oiler log jam with bad defence contracts he would be playing here.

admiralmark

AsiaOil,

I do agree with what you are saying. The question ultimately to me however is how much of a negative draw is the last 5 years of Webers deal? 7.9 Mill for his 35yr-40yr age period is pretty horrendous. However his 30yr-35 yr time period(and contract) is exactly what the Dr ordered for this Oiler team.

Depending on what GM you talk to i’m sure the degree of importance(negativity) given to the tail end of his contract will vary. And most assuredly there are plenty GM’s that will not blink an eye to make a deal for him(especially in a win now team build). Are we in that win now window? I’d say McDavid adds an undeniable urgency. And even though Nurse/McDavid/Draisaitl are all <21 I think we can all say this team should be thinking win now. Mostly because Nurse/Drai/McDavid are already major contributors despite age. And damn how good would it be to have Weber helping Nurse along here?!

If Webers deal was for 5 more years and the Deal was RNH+GH. I'd take it. The extra 5 has me firmly sitting on the fence. But maybe i'm too concerned with the tail of that contract? RNH+Eberle or RNH+DRAi is asinine however.

Bank Shot

fifthcartel:
I’m looking at how other centers did through there draft +1-5 seasons because of this whole “RNH is struggling!” thing going on, and there are a lot of players who put up better numbers earlier, but a lot of really good players had lesser numbers than RNH.

One thing to take into consideration when comparing RNH to other players is opportunity provided them.

I frequently am seeing guys like Datsyuk, Pavelski, and Sedin thrown out as examples of guys that didn’t break out until later in their careers.

The big difference between them and RNH is that they were all held back by superior depth and didn’t get a chance to show what they were capable of offensively right off the bat. They started playing less EV and PP minutes than RNH.

RNH has been given loads of EV and PP minutes right from the start in a role playing with two high scoring wingers in Hall and Eberle.

He’s in his 5th NHL season now. He’s basically shown what he is offensively IMO.

Is there still potential for RNH to break out and find a new level? Sure I guess, but I wouldn’t say there is a high probability. The number of guys that break out after 5 years in the NHL is pretty low compared to the number that progress over 3-4 years to their relative offensive peak.

On the other hand you’ve got Weber who has the same career high in points as RNH. It’s a no brainer that you’d make that swap isn’t it?

AsiaOil

As for the goalies and defense. I think you start talking bridge contract with Talbot’s agent and try get something done by the end of January. Two years somewhere around $5 million total would be fair. Honestly if he wants more then trade him and let him fire his agent if he lets him go UFA when the cap issues next summer could cost him a million or two. Same length for Nilsson but he’s RFA so about $3 million. That would bring the goalies back for about $4 million a year total cap – very affordable and let the two fight it out for top dog status over the next two years.

On defense – yeah can’t wait to flush the extras and hangers on. Ference is a clear buyout (no one is taking that contract) and hopefully we can trade Fayne back east or package him in a bigger deal. Fire Shultz into the sun for whatever you can get for him along with Niki. RNH and Drai for Weber never happens – but RNH and Reinhart could. Quick question – how many Olympic team, RH dmen with big shots exist? You won’t need many fingers. The list is Weber, Doughty, Pietrangelo, Subban. How many are available for that package? May be one – might be zero – and only Pietrangelo has a slightly lower cap hit than Weber. We would be incredibly fortunate to get Weber and we actually have what NASH might need to make a deal – a top line center and a young dman. Drai or Nurse is not part of that package – but RNH and GR sure could be IMHO.

rickithebear

Clay: I don’t have the time or energy to get into this with you Ricki, but I would question how the quality of competition is measured in your analysis.Sure, Ruff may be able to run Benn against the dregs at home, but how is it possible he is facing third line / bottom pairing comp overall this year?Are you suggesting coaches around the league haven’t heard how good he is?

I’m not calling you out – just saying that Benn facing the oppositions’ third best options doesn’t pass the sniff test.

Merry Christmas!

edit – I do see now you said “forward comp”, but still…

Start with:
1. score ability of competition.
2. quality of schedule to this point.
these are the 2 large factors.

Individuals on here have not thought of or looked into the huge comp affect of start of season schedule affect. it ballances as the season extends.

Small sample size affect for a season look.
But completely acurate to the quality they have played to this point.

You will see a large collection of oiler with high comp rank!

we have played 35 games
if you look at top 11 teams by games relative to even.
DAL +19 25 ROW 2/3gm 1W; 1L
WSH +19 23 ROW 2/2gm 2L
STL +10 20 ROW 2/3gm 2L
LAK +9 18 ROW 2/5gm 2L
MIN +9 18 ROW 1/3gm 1L
BOS +9 17 ROW 2/2gm 2W
NYR +8 19 ROW 2/2gm 1W 1L
CHI +8 19 ROW 3/3gm 2l 1 OTL
NYI +8 16 ROW 0/2gm
MTL +7 19 ROW 1/2gm 1W
DET +7 16 ROW 2/2gm 1W 1OTL
we have played 19/29 games 6W- 11L – 2 OTL (4-2-1 in last 7)
66% of the top of schedule.
19/35 54% our curretn season

Next best 7:
FLD +7 14 ROW 0/2gm
NSH +6 15 ROW 1/3gm 1L
OTT +5 14 ROW 0/2gm
NJD +4 15 ROW 1/2gm 1W
PHI +3 14 ROW 1/2gm 1W
SJS +2 16 ROW 1/5gm 1W
PIT +2 15 ROW 2/2gm 1W 1L
6/16 37.5% 4W-2L

25/35 71.5% against top 3/5th of the league.

Our schedule has allowed us to see all 3 of our centers in upper comp play.

I wonder what will happen to benn and Seguins comp and PPG results as they hammer thru the central schedule?

fifthcartel

I’m looking at how other centers did through there draft +1-5 seasons because of this whole “RNH is struggling!” thing going on, and there are a lot of players who put up better numbers earlier, but a lot of really good players had lesser numbers than RNH.

There are some really interesting things that I need to double check, but I’m pretty sure RNH has the 3rd best points per game of centers in their draft + 1 season in the NHL, behind Stastny and Crosby.

There are other comparable players like O’Reilly, Stepan, Little, and I don’t think any were the center that played against the oppositions best player/center as early as RNH.

O’Reilly had Duchene, Stastny and played LW. Little had Todd White and Peverley on the team with hi and Stepan had Richards, Dubisnky, Anisimov and even Brassard now.

The centers on the Oilers while RNH has been here:

Sam Gagner
Shawn Horcoff
Anton Lander
Leon Draisaitl
Marc Arcobello
Boyd Gordon
Eric Belanger
Jerred Smithson
Will Acton
Derek Roy (old)
Mark Letestu
Connor McDavid

I don’t think any center has been brought in with a worse supporting cast. RNH had Horcoff for 1.5 seasons (injured for a good chunk of the shortened season), someone who really shouldn’t be playing center (Gagner) and a bunch of rookies/depth players.

It’s a crime there hasn’t been a veteran center to help RNH take some of the toughs, instead it’s just been a constant rotation of rookies and Gagner/Arcobello.

All my family in England this Christmas. I’m in the desert in Arizona having some bubbles and steak on my own. So you’re all my family for today and tomorrow. Happy holidays to you all, once again.

P.S. if any of you are going to the Jan 12 game in Glendale I hope to see you there.