THE NEXT BRODZIAK?

As the Bakersfield Condors prepare to play tonight (I will update the scores in comments section) all (or most) eyes will be on Zack Kassian—for good reason. Among the Condors forwards, he is the easiest hockey projection. He is an NHL player, full stop. For the rest of the forwards in California, it is a less precise assessment.

One way I look at minor league forwards is via even-strength points. We all know the difficulty of scoring when the game state is equal, and without impact offensive players it means a combination of skill, grit and hard work is the likely recipe for success. That dovetails beautifully with the skills NHL teams look for in complementary players.

Recently, I wrote about the prospects here on the blog, and a few commenters suggested this generation of players couldn’t be compared to the Brodziak’s and the Chimera’s. Today, I would like to spend a few minutes comparing today’s Condors with the men who played in Edmonton’s system a decade ago—using even-strength points as our measuring stick.

05-06 (EVEN-STRENGTH POINTS/PER GAME)

  1. Brad Winchester (24) 40, 10-8-18 .450
  2. Kyle Brodziak (21) 55, 9-11-20 .363
  3. JF Jacques (20) 65, 11-11-22 .338
  4. MA Pouliot (20) 65, 9-12-21 .323
  5. Zack Stortini (20) 64, 2-8-10 .156

This is a look at the 2005-06 season, with Jacques, Poo and Stortini all 20 and AHL rookies, Brodziak in year two, and Brad Winchester about to graduate to the NHL at age 24. Let’s compare this group to the current forwards in Bakersfield (who have played more than 15 games).

  1. Andrew Miller (26) 21, 5-5-10 .476
  2. Jujhar Khaira (21) 16, 3-3-6 .375
  3. Kale Kessy (22) 26, 5-4-9 .336
  4. Greg Chase (20) 16, 1-4-5 .313
  5. Mitch Moroz (21) 22, 2-3-5 .227
  6. Kyle Platzer (20) 28, 2-4-6 .214
  7. Braden Christoffer (21) 21, 1-3-4 .167
  8. Anton Slepyshev (21) 20, 1-1-2 .100

In this way, even though TOI is unavailable, we can see that Kyle Brodziak at 21 was doing about what Jujhar Khaira is now. Different era of course, however Brodziak’s team was scoring 2.94 goals-per-game, while Khaira’s Condors are at 2.96 per-game. So, maybe not so different after all. It is important to note that Brodziak brought other elements to his game (he was a two-way center) but a player like Khaira has some elements of his own.

I think we forget about what actually happened back in the day, or we merge ideas into one and then recall them as gospel. A point-per-game at the AHL level (at age 20) is often mentioned as the sign of a future NHL player, but I recall it being the definition of a player who would eventually play on a skill line successfully. Either way, in the AHL this season (among those with 15 or more games) the only point-per-game man is Mikko Rantanen (who is 19). I suspect the AHL houses more than one future NHL role player, hope you agree.

Zack Kassian played a lot last night, wonder if his wheels turn tonight at high speed. My goodness he had a glorious chance to score late in the game, missed a wide open net.

Lineups (one forward short)

  • Hamilton – Ford – Kassian
  • Jones – Currie – Kessy
  • Moroz – Roy – Chase
  • LaLeggia – X – Christoffer

Miller, Platzer and Slepyshev are not playing. Disconcerting for the Russian to be out, he needs to get the party started. Laleggia was a D last night, although he is more rover than anything.

  • Reinhart – Oesterle
  • Simpson – Musil
  • Gernat – Nikitin

Fun item: ALL but Simpson and Gernat have played in the NHL for the Oilers, suspect we see one or two of these guys in the show before April. If you watch the game tonight, check out Oesterle and Laleggia, they have Jetsons rocket shoes.

Another thing to watch for? How many of these lefties can play RH side. Sekera and Davidson have done it this season in the NHL, and Musil does it tonight (and has in the past many times). I seem to recall Davidson playing RH side with Oesterle last season, but the college man is playing off wing tonight with Griffin Reinhart.

  • Laurent Brossoit

He is 2.55 .926 and one would guess not far from another NHL cup of coffee.

 

 

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149 Responses to "THE NEXT BRODZIAK?"

  1. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Does Sleppy have 2 points in 20 games?

    Because that’s probably a topic worth talking about if so.

  2. Edmonton_fan says:

    How can I watch the game – TV or online..

  3. Lowetide says:

    Kassian makes an ill-advised back pass in the neutral zone and a breakaway results. 0-1. Welcome, Zack!

  4. Lowetide says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Does Sleppy have 2 points in 20 games?

    Because that’s probably a topic worth talking about if so.

    Even-strength points. All of the points above are even strength.

  5. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    Kassian makes an ill-advised back pass in the neutral zone and a breakaway results. 0-1. Welcome, Zack!

    Yup.

    Man…there are about 8 fans at this game. Stockton sucks!

  6. Lowetide says:

    Laleggia is a wonderful player. No idea how his skills and size will be useful in the NHL, but I would pay to see him if I lived in an AHL city.

  7. leadfarmer says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    I’m guessing we will hear Slepyshev heading home this month

  8. Pouzar says:

    Kassian scores!

  9. Lowetide says:

    Kassian from the high slot, 1-1.

  10. Pouzar says:

    Kassian goes to net and scores off the rebound. Bet that feels good.

  11. v4ance says:

    Somewhat oddball idea LT, but would you trade Sekera for Hamonic if that was Snow’s last offer?

    If so, is it a straight trade or is there a sweetener for one side?

    I know you don’t want to trade newly signed UFAs because it sends a bad message to other UFAs but I suspect Edmonton will be a desirable team to play for quite soon. Something about a McDavid?

  12. Lowetide says:

    Gernat had a terrible shift. Good grief.

    V4ANCE: No, I like Sekera’s veteran leadership and he offers stability.

  13. Pouzar says:

    Very fragmented game to say the least.

  14. Centre of attention says:

    Kassian can skate above average for such a big guy. He has a plus shot and isn’t afraid to dish if he sees a better opportunity. He nearly fed Ford right in front for a tap in. Not bad offensively for someone considered a goon.

    One suspects he will be in the NHL before the deadline.

  15. Pouzar says:

    Centre of attention,

    Yeah that was a very nice play. If this kid can straighten out his life look out.

  16. Pouzar says:

    Did you guys catch 5’10” – 190 lb Braden Christoffer dancing with 6’4 – 215 lb Austin Carroll????
    The kid has got some stones.

  17. Centre of attention says:

    Pouzar,

    I would love to see him just going straight to the net and smashing in McRebounds from the wonderkid. Throw Pouliot on the other wing and WOW that would be an annoying line for defenders.

  18. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention:
    Kassian can skate above average for such a big guy. He has a plus shot and isn’t afraid to dish if he sees a better opportunity. He nearly fed Ford right in front for a tap in. Not bad offensively for someone considered a goon.

    One suspects he will be in the NHL before the deadline.

    Agree with all of that.

  19. Pouzar says:

    Centre of attention:
    Pouzar,

    I would love to see him just going straight to the net and smashing in McRebounds from the wonderkid. Throw Pouliot on the other wing and WOW that would be an annoying line for defenders.

    Would like to see that line as well.

  20. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide,

    Can you imagine Pouliot-McDavid-Kassian?

    Super annoying, plus grit, plus skill. Lordy.

    Classic Chiarelli line, really. Size/skill/grit on the wings with sublime talent at center.

  21. Centre of attention says:

    Gernat managed to ice that. I’m impressed.

  22. blainer says:

    Pouzar: Would like to see that line as well.

    How do I get the link

  23. Water Fire says:

    Centre of attention:
    Lowetide,

    Can you imagine Pouliot-McDavid-Kassian?

    Super annoying, plus grit, plus skill. Lordy.

    Classic Chiarelli line, really. Size/skill/grit on the wings with sublime talent at

    I’m imagining Lucic McD Drai. If Lucic re-ups in LA maybe Kassian can play LW too.

  24. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention:
    Lowetide,

    Can you imagine Pouliot-McDavid-Kassian?

    Super annoying, plus grit, plus skill. Lordy.

    Classic Chiarelli line, really. Size/skill/grit on the wings with sublime talent at center.

    Yeah, until I saw Kassian last night he was kind of a distant bell. Now? I am beginning to warm to the idea of Edmonton having a real agitator. Still have to forgive him though, we do what we can.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Laleggia is the human being lawnmower.

  26. kevin says:

    Just saw Book¡je on Global news. I don’t think the comb helped him too much. I realize that personal comments are always in poor taste, but I think a hat may be in order.
    Love his comments, even though he’s an asshole.

  27. Pouzar says:

    blainer: How do I getthe link

    http://onhockey.tv/

  28. Unwashed Oilfan says:

    kevin,

    OK, I missed the whole Bookjie revelation. Who is he and why is he on the news? Can I get a name so I can google?

  29. Lowetide says:

    Stunning save by Brossoit. He is fantastic.

  30. Centre of attention says:

    No idea if its worth mentioning repeatedly or not, but Brossoit is amazing.

  31. Pouzar says:

    Sorry but LB is so cool and calm.

  32. "Steve Smith" says:

    Unwashed Oilfan:
    kevin,

    OK, I missed the whole Bookjie revelation.Who is he and why is he on the news?Can I get a name so I can google?

    Turns out he’s a famous internet commenter.

  33. blainer says:

    Pouzar: http://onhockey.tv/

    no luck do I cick on the xplayer ?

  34. Centre of attention says:

    I’m seeing Chase good as well.

  35. Unwashed Oilfan says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    And? A name?

  36. Centre of attention says:

    blainer,

    yes

  37. Pouzar says:

    Nice PP there.

  38. Pouzar says:

    Bonkers.

    Bakersfield Condors ‏@Condors 52s52 seconds ago
    END of 2nd: Tied up 1-1. @LBrossoit with 20 saves in the period. #Condorstown

  39. Pouzar says:

    blainer: no luck doI cick on the xplayer ?

    Yes

  40. Unwashed Oilfan says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    Thank you!!

  41. Zelepukin says:

    Water Fire: I’m imagining Lucic McD Drai. If Lucic re-ups in LA maybe Kassian can play LW too.

    Man, I’m sick of hearing Drai on the wing suggestions. It’s an insult to his abilities as a center. For one, he is probably our best face-off man and he hasn’t even played a full season in his career. That’s basically unheard of.

  42. Pouzar says:

    Seein Oesterle good tonight.

    LB 29 of 30.
    The lone goal was a breakaway.

  43. Pouzar says:

    Zelepukin: Man, I’m sick of hearing Drai on the wing suggestions.

    Guess you missed the Hall-Nuge-Drai days.

  44. kinger_OIL says:

    – Off topic: but over the weekend a buddy came over, he installed some US web-site Zen-Mate, and now my Netflix is US, and I just went to Yahoo, with free live NFL NBC feed

    – So LT, you blog is really cool, and a great community, an internet-age sports medium: I always wonder what the future is for sports viewing and communication. LT created this, I just wonder how the internet changes all sport. Have you ever thought of these things LT?

    – For example, stuff like the wrap-up 30 minute highlight shows after games or next day on TV that many of us grew up with: that stuff has to be done? Rather read LT interactions in real-time online, than listen to talknig heads on TV. No need to look up stats in newspaper, etc…

    – Does anyone have other teams in any sport they follow that has a “LT” quality Blog?

  45. stush18 says:

    Does anyone else think the only way yak is gonna stick on this team is if he finds a way to play left wing?

    Eberle Purcell Kassim all on right wing. Drai likely moving there when McDavid gets back.

    I know I’m getting ahead of myself, but I still think yak is going to slot behind hall on left wing

  46. robertosanchezzz says:

    Lucic and Big Buff both hop on the Mcdavid train this summer @ 7m for 7yrs. Cam Ward 5m for 3yrs.

    Hall-Drai-Kassian
    Lucic-Nuge-Eberle
    Pouliot-McDavid-Yakupov
    Hendy-Lestestu-Korpi

    Extras/Subs-Lander/Khaira/Klink

    Nurse-BigBuff
    Klefbom-Sekera
    BDavy-Shultz

    Subs- Gryba/Musil/Reinhart

    Ward/LB

    Playoffs.

  47. Pouzar says:

    kinger_OIL: Does anyone have other teams in any sport they follow that has a “LT” quality Blog?

    sonsofsamhorn.net for Red Sox fans is the closest I’ve seen. Much larger community but extremely stats based as well.

  48. Pouzar says:

    2-1 Heat…..PP Goal

  49. böök¡je says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Unwashed Oilfan,

    Robert Summers

    That’s actually the least accurate of the stories – funny how things in the media are like a game of telephone or whatever that game that you play when you whisper in the ear of the person beside of you and then they do the same….

    I like the this one better

    The original globe story is here

    It’s been a fun few days, but things are getting back to normal again which is great. I did just get a tweet from Nenshi which was cool.

    The whole ‘Do you know Bob” thing was weird.

    Also – sorry for the hijack – just not a fan of the Toronto Star version.

    I’ll be back to my sarcastic self soon.

    Its been a weird few days 🙂

  50. böök¡je says:

    I’m actually Steve Smith

  51. leadfarmer says:

    robertosanchezzz,

    Can Ward? Have you been frozen since 2007 and were just recently unthawed

  52. RexLibris says:

    robertosanchezzz: Cam Ward 5m for 3yrs.

    Do you want to give Woodguy a coronary?

    And there is no way I’d extend either Byfuglien or Lucic for 7 years. Years one and two would be nice. Years three through seven would be a walk through a living hell.

    Offering one or the other big money for two years, as WG has mentioned previously, is the best way forward, no pun intended.

    Let them walk when you need to extend Eberle, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, McDavid, Draisaitl and company.

    But no to Cam Ward.

  53. Pouzar says:

    Trade Trade Trade

    Frank Seravalli ‏@frank_seravalli 23s23 seconds ago
    #Leafs have acquired Jeremy Morin from #Blackhawks in exchange for Richard Panik. Morin will report to the AHL’s Marlies.

  54. GCW_69 says:

    Willis is pondering Yakupov for Drouin. I think I would make that trade.

  55. GCW_69 says:

    RexLibris: Do you want to give Woodguy a coronary?

    And there is no way I’d extend either Byfuglien or Lucic for 7 years. Years one and two would be nice. Years three through seven would be a walk through a living hell.

    Offering one or the other big money for two years, as WG has mentioned previously, is the best way forward, no pun intended.

    Let them walk when you need to extend Eberle, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, McDavid, Draisaitl and company.

    But no to Cam Ward.

    I would do Lucic for $6M for six or seven years. That’s his 28 to 34 or 35 seasons. He may not be worth it the last couple of seasons, but the point is to win now and I would guess he should be able to deliver from 28 to 33, right in the heart of the cluster.

    Buf, on the other hand, would be scarier given his reported fitness issues over the years.

    And I agree – no to Cam Ward.

  56. RexLibris says:

    böök¡je:
    I’m actually Steve Smith

    How’re the umlauts going?

    I’ve been meaning to tell you I’m working on an umlaut conversion kit for people who were overexpeosed during the Great Umlaut Crash of 2013.

    I’m hoping to get on Dragon’s Den with the conversion kit and get them into Canadian Tire stores by this summer.

    It allows you to repurpose them for use as colons or even break them down to be recycled as periods or to dot specific letters, provided they run on the same voltage.

    There’s a no-name adapter kit to make them semi-colons but it is in imperial units and the umlaut is optimal when run metric and most people don’t make the change properly and so end up using the DIY semi-colons improperly.

    Congratulations again, and here’s hoping we stop cursing you this new year!

  57. GCW_69 says:

    Did Stockton forget to sell tickets to the game?

  58. Mr DeBakey says:

    RexLibris: And there is no way I’d extend either Byfuglien or Lucic for 7 years. Years one and two would be nice. Years three through seven would be a walk through a living hell.

    Either of these two contracts will narrow the Oilers’ window in an extreme manner – to a few, very short, seasons.

    This is what makes Hamonic so appealing – He’s not even a blip at Cap Central.

    * * *

    i gotta say I’m jealous of Bookjie.
    That guy has a tonne of bad hair.
    I can’t even dream of getting that look.

  59. Professor Q says:

    Technically Kassian has never played in the NHL for the Oilers, either.

    EDIT: Fine, I see that that probably was only addressing the D.

  60. geowal says:

    Pouzar: http://onhockey.tv/

    I think this is better than the Oilers NHL preseason feed!

  61. Professor Q says:

    GCW_69: I would do Lucic for $6M for six or seven years.That’s his 28 to 34 or 35 seasons. He may not be worth it the last couple of seasons, but the point is to win now and I would guess he should be able to deliver from 28 to 33, right in the heart of the cluster.

    Buf, on the other hand, would be scarier given his reported fitness issues over the years.

    And I agree – no to Cam Ward.

    Although wouldn’t that be apt if he led Edmonton to a cup, eh?

  62. GCW_69 says:

    Professor Q: Although wouldn’t that be apt if he led Edmonton to a cup, eh?

    Yes. Cam Ward at back up money might be worth it just for that possibility.

  63. geowal says:

    Who is Josh Currie?
    I see he’s an old Bakersfield ECHL player, is he a prospect, or pseudo-veteran?

  64. square_wheels says:

    As much as I like Buff does anyone else recall 2 seasons ago when he showed up at 300 lbs ?

    Early 30’s onward most of in our 40’s need to be completely honest, the weight doesn’t stay off that easy.

    Buff year 3 on could be a nightmare, he’s not the #1 D I’d be breaking the bank for.

    Burns might be a safer bet, although a year older at UFA.

    As for Hamonic I was just explaining/ranting to Leadfarmer, I don’t think Snow trades him at all, why would we ? He owes the Isles 4 more years at an big discount from his established talent level, so why would Snow trade him’ if he plays well ? My employees ask me for lots of things, sometimes the answer is – “no, sorry, that’s not good for the company even though you may feel it’s good for you”.

    Snow isn’t a fool, 25 yr old players can be.

  65. leadfarmer says:

    square_wheels,

    Guys that ask for a trade get traded period. E. Kane is the only player that asked for a trade and remained with his team for more than the year and he still got traded. As much as fans think these guys sign the contract they need to fulfill it, in real life if the guys want a trade they will get it. These are not your regular employees. They have agents and press to help them get what they want, and locker rooms don’t do well with a guy that doesn’t want to be there.

  66. square_wheels says:

    leadfarmer,

    Evader Kane was a notorious douche and I think Winnipeg was happy to move him, he was never going to be successful there. That was a mutual.

    Hamonics request comes across as – ” I’d like to play closer to home, so if you can make that happen I’d be grateful”. That’s what him and his agent want us to think but at what point does he demand a trade ? Making it public in November after doing it privately in the summer means Snow isn’t trying very hard and the list of teams seem to grow the longer this goes on.

    For one, how is Colorado now included, that’s a 2.5 hr flight from “western Canada”.

    I think Snow waits him out.

  67. jake70 says:

    Just watched the last 9 minutes of the BorgHawks and Sens. Resistance was futile.

  68. frjohnk says:

    Lucic has said he and his family really like LA.

    Even if the cap does not go up much, LA could make the room to sign Kopitar and Lucic.

    I don’t think Lucic makes free agency.

    But if he does, Chia no doubt goes after him.

    And same with Buff.

    Would need to overpay in money and term to get both.

    Those two contracts could be boat anchors in 4 years.

    Right when the McDavid cluster is entering their prime and the Hall cluster is still in theirs.

    I really like Lucic and Buff for the next couple of years, not so much in 2020.

  69. robertosanchezzz says:

    Ok maybe Cam Ward was a little agressive…

    Just hold on to Talbot on the cheap and run with LB?

  70. böök¡je says:

    Damn – just when I was thinking my hair wasn’t quite that bad.

    Had I of known anyone other than my in-laws would have been watching me prior to Christmas, I would have gone in for that haircut my wife was reminding me about.

    Edit: When all of you achieve a day or so of national notoriety, I hope your mug shot makes you look like Nick Nolte!

  71. square_wheels says:

    leadfarmer,

    But that isn’t to say I wouldn’t pitch anyone not named Klef or Nurse in the off season. Harmonic has said he’d prefer to play the year in NY, so unless they implode before the deadline, we will need to prepare a killer offer this summer.

    I think our offer is only plausible if they can sign a replacement, not exactly anymore than 1 UFA RHD worth signing and it’s going to be double Hamonics salary.

    Snow needs a 3 way !

  72. PunjabiOil says:

    frjohnk:
    Lucic has said he and his family really like LA.

    Even if the cap does not go up much, LA could make the room to sign Kopitar and Lucic.

    I don’t think Lucic makes free agency.

    But if he does, Chia no doubt goes after him.

    And same with Buff.

    Would need to overpay in money and term to get both.

    Those two contracts could be boat anchors in 4 years.

    Right when the McDavid cluster is entering their prime and the Hall cluster is still in theirs.

    I really like Lucic and Buff for the next couple of years, not so much in 2020.

    The alternative is losing out on the bullets in the Hall’s beauty contract and McDavid’s ELC.

    It’s time to turn north quickly. Whether it’s the UFA market or trade market, and immediate success is more important than potential consequences in 2021 IMO.

    That is not to say Buff is the only option, but if push comes to shove, you have to be willing to overpay in term and dollars for players that move the dial forward.

  73. PunjabiOil says:

    robertosanchezzz:
    Ok maybe Cam Ward was a little agressive…

    Just hold on to Talbot on the cheap and run with LB?

    Might not have any other alternative, given the total lack of goaltenders in the UFA market.

  74. leadfarmer says:

    square_wheels,

    I’m pretty sure he said that he would be OK to play out the year in NY if a trade wasn’t possible in the season. I read that as trade me by next season. Given that the request was leaked out I’m guessing its to get Snow moving and put pressure on Chia to improve his team. We will see how it turns out but he is gone by next season.

    Guys backing out of contracts is actually not that uncommon in the real world even. Happens in medicine all the time. Starts with a process that is not that different from the draft and even though you are supposed to be committed to the program you matched to for the duration of training plenty of people leave after a year. Happens with professional contracts after training as well.

  75. Soup Fascist says:

    Zelepukin: Man, I’m sick of hearing Drai on the wing suggestions. It’s an insult to his abilities as a center. For one, he is probably our best face-off man and he hasn’t even played a full season in his career. That’s basically unheard of.

    Why? It’s not a punishment for Drai. It is player utilization.

    Hall-RNH-Drai were dominant when they briefly played together. RNH gives the line a real defensive conscience that allows Drai and Hall to be even more creative and aggressive in the O zone. It gets him away from the Kopitar, Getzlaf, Henrik, Thornton matchups in division. He is a witch on the backhand and has nice shooting angles coming off the right wall.

    Personally, I LOVE Drai on RW and think that he and the team both benefit. Hell, let him take draws when Nuge struggles and if / when you have injuries or matchup issues – Bob’s your uncle – Drai can move to the middle.

    Skilled forwards in interchangeable positions. Page 1 of the TMac coaching school.

  76. square_wheels says:

    leadfarmer,

    It sure does, won’t disagree at all.

    But why say Edm, Van and Cgy because “family”, then start adding teams like Colorado ?

    This summer opens up lots of possibilities, and Snow must be well compensated. Not sure we have the depth, but our first could be enticing.

  77. Water Fire says:

    Zelepukin: Man, I’m sick of hearing Drai on the wing suggestions. It’s an insult to his abilities as a center. For one, he is probably our best face-off man and he hasn’t even played a full season in his career. That’s basically unheard of.

    It’s normal for guys to start at wing . Leon can still take face offs, but one rookie centre is enough making defensive mistakes and Connor should be the one. Leon is having issues which is normal, there is a lot to learn and to me he helps the team more on wing right now. I’d also rather keep Nuge than a winger. They have said they like big centres so he probably ends up there with more experience and stamina

  78. JDï™ says:

    böök¡je: When all of you achieve a day or so of national notoriety

    It will be at best, a mug shot or the cuff-walk. No planning necessary.

  79. Soup Fascist says:

    square_wheels:
    As much as I like Buff does anyone else recall 2 seasons ago when he showed up at 300 lbs ?

    Early 30’s onward most of in our 40’s need to be completely honest, the weight doesn’t stay off that easy.

    Buff year 3 on could be a nightmare, he’s not the #1 D I’d be breaking the bank for.

    Burns might be a safer bet, although a year older at UFA.

    Buff to a team $7M x 7 years will NOT end well.

    The guy is going to go “Full Balboni” – no question. The only way I would have wanted Byfuglien here is if Eakins was still coaching. Buff flipping over the salad bar station in the players lounge would have been epic and worth Katz’s $49 million.

  80. square_wheels says:

    Soup Fascist,

    You got it. I’d wait to see what teams closer to the cap want to do. Who knows, maybe San Jose offers Stamkos 10x10M in an effort to expedite the rebuild, and counter LA’s dynasty plans…..and Burns pops out for a high draft pick on conditions he resigns.

    Summer 2016, going to be mountain camping with a satellite phone !

  81. RexLibris says:

    I’d much rather target Burns in free agency.

    He loves McLellan and gets the schemes, he’s big but can move from F to D as needed.

    He’s generally been shown to be a good teammate and would bring many of the things we would hope for from Byfuglien but also be more likely to bring value through to a contract extended beyond three years.

    While LA locks up Lucic, I let the hounds chase Byfuglien while I make a very quick call to Burns.

  82. stevezie says:

    square_wheels,

    It’s times like these (and the sake of my poor mother) I am glad all of my moments of national notoriety have been anonymous.

  83. Soup Fascist says:

    square_wheels:
    Soup Fascist,

    You got it. I’d wait to see what teams closer to the cap want to do. Who knows, maybe San Jose offers Stamkos 10x10M in an effort to expedite the rebuild, and counter LA’s dynasty plans…..and Burns pops out for a high draft pick on conditions he resigns.

    Summer 2016, going to be mountain camping with a satellite phone !

    7 year max contract (8 if a re-up) but the point is still valid. Burns is a far better bet than Byfuglien IMO.

  84. wheatnoil says:

    It’s a tough situation re: Byfuglien. He definitely fits the need to a ‘T’… big right shooting D-man. The problem is that to sign him, you have to break a cardinal rule of free agency… never sign a D-man past the age of 35. Unless it’s Zdeno Chara, you’re asking for an anchor contract. In this case, the anchor lands squarely in the middle of McDavid’s 2nd contract and holding on until after Hall, Ebs, and RNH are up for renewal.

    The Oilers already have Sekera signed right until age 35. That could be an awful lot of money tied up in aging D-men in about 4 years, right when Hall’s contract is up.

    Of course, I can’t offer much of an alternative. The top right shooting D-men that are UFA next summer: Byfuglien, Boyle (39 years old)… then we drop off to Luke Schenn, Jason Demers, Tom Gilbert (who will be 33), and Roman Polak.

    If Chiarelli can’t work some magic via trade, it may have to be Byfuglien and pray that the Oilers can get him for no more than 5 years term, with hopefully the last year or two having a lower cap hit than salary and a limited NTC at best.

  85. Yegfoundation says:

    PunjabiOil: The alternative is losing out on the bullets in the Hall’s beauty contract and McDavid’s ELC.

    It’s time to turn north quickly.Whether it’s the UFA market or trade market, and immediate success is more important than potential consequences in 2021 IMO.

    That is not to say Buff is the only option, but if push comes to shove, you have to be willing to overpay in term and dollars for players that move the dial forward.

    Agreed, and that is my concern with the Reinhart trade. This group of talented forwards needs established help that can contribute immediately and not another prospect who needs additional AHL time. Pissed away this playoffs this year and Taylor Hall deserves better.

    I feel the same about Drouin, great potential but not a fit at this time for this team. IMO Eberle at 24 and established is more help to Connor, Taylor, Dria than Drouin who is still trying to establish himself and may need additional developmental time.

    This is no knock on Reinhart, I trust the opinion of others that he’s likely to become a fine second or third pairing defenseman in the coming years.

  86. wheatnoil says:

    RexLibris:
    I’d much rather target Burns in free agency.

    He loves McLellan and gets the schemes, he’s big but can move from F to D as needed.

    He’s generally been shown to be a good teammate and would bring many of the things we would hope for from Byfuglien but also be more likely to bring value through to a contract extended beyond three years.

    While LA locks up Lucic, I let the hounds chase Byfuglien while I make a very quick call to Burns.

    Burns isn’t due up for another 2 years, no?

  87. leadfarmer says:

    Soup Fascist,

    Yes but Buff costs you money. Burns costs you a lot, and then money, and that’s if SJ wants to trade him which I doubt they would especially in the same division

  88. kevin says:

    böök¡je: I would have gone in for that haircut my wife was reminding me about.

    By now you should know that she always has your best interests at heart.

  89. square_wheels says:

    Soup Fascist,

    Dallas or Colorado can have him.

    Speaking of teams that can disrupt an off season….How bad does Sather wish he traded one or both of Girardi and Staal, one is signed way past his prime and the other isn’t that good. Worse, his best defenceman is paid less and is a UFA at 30. I never discount him being involved when a player like Stamkos becomes a UFA, somebody will take Staal or Girardi.

  90. square_wheels says:

    wheatnoil,

    Yup, he’s UFA summer 2017.

  91. square_wheels says:

    stevezie,

    My mom will make national news way before I will, she’s a stick of dynamite.

  92. Mr. D. says:

    Gryba is a UFA..good as gone.

    robertosanchezzz:
    Lucic and Big Buff both hop on the Mcdavid train this summer @ 7m for 7yrs. Cam Ward 5m for 3yrs.

    Hall-Drai-Kassian
    Lucic-Nuge-Eberle
    Pouliot-McDavid-Yakupov
    Hendy-Lestestu-Korpi

    Extras/Subs-Lander/Khaira/Klink

    Nurse-BigBuff
    Klefbom-Sekera
    BDavy-Shultz

    Subs- Gryba/Musil/Reinhart

    Ward/LB

    Playoffs.

  93. Soup Fascist says:

    square_wheels:
    Soup Fascist,

    Dallas or Colorado can have him.

    Speaking of teams that can disrupt an off season….How bad does Sather wish he traded one or both of Girardi and Staal, one is signed way past his prime and the other isn’tthat good. Worse, his best defenceman is paid less and is a UFA at 30.I never discount him being involved when a player like Stamkos becomes a UFA, somebody will take Staal or Girardi.

    I was on the Marc Staal bandwagon a couple if years ago. Luckily, my GM application went to the bottom of the pile. One of KLowe’s few savvy moves.

  94. leadfarmer says:

    square_wheels,

    Keeping those two while letting Stralman go was a huge mistake.

  95. square_wheels says:

    Soup Fascist,

    I see him bad every damn time I watch the Rags. He’s dirty in a bad way, gets beat one on one, plays like its 1990 still mauling guys along the boards……between him and King Henrick being signed until he’s 45, good luck resigning MacDonaugh.

  96. Soup Fascist says:

    square_wheels:
    Soup Fascist,

    I see him bad every damn time I watch the Rags. He’s dirty in a bad way, gets beat one on one, plays like its 1990 still mauling guys along the boards……between him and King Henrick being signed until he’s 45, good luck resigning MacDonaugh.

    Hasn’t been the same since brother Eric rang his bell a couple of years ago. Tough conversation around the dinner table in Thunder Bay.

  97. RexLibris says:

    wheatnoil: Burns isn’t due up for another 2 years, no?

    Meh, details.

    😉

  98. godot10 says:

    wheatnoil: Burns isn’t due up for another 2 years, no?

    Burns has one year left after this year. San Jose has to decide this summer whether to extend him or not. They do not have a 1st round draft choice, so if the plan is to not extend him, they will want to execute a trade before the draft.

    The OIlers can pursue both Hamonic and Burns, because Hamonic has that exceptionally value for money contract.

    Burns will cost the 2016 1st plus something.

  99. RexLibris says:

    So I went to check the Vollman charts this evening and was surprised to see a few things:

    1. Big cluster in the QualComp range. McLellan doesn’t play some of the usual matchup games we see from other coaches.

    2. Pretty decent collection of blue bubbles in CorsiRel and the names are gathered together pretty close. The only outlier is Gazdic and his gp sample size likely isn’t big enough to draw many conclusions.

    3. Fayne and Klefbom are almost overlapping, reinforcing the argument that CorsiRel is a poor measure of defensive ability.

    Worth a look if you haven’t recently.

    http://www.hockeyabstract.com/playerusagecharts

  100. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris:

    3. Fayne and Klefbom are almost overlapping, reinforcing the argument that CorsiRel is a poor measure of defensive ability.

    http://www.hockeyabstract.com/playerusagecharts

    Respectfully disagree. I still don’t understand why McLellan isn’t running Fayne with Sekera. If he did that, he could use Davidson in the Klefbom role until he returns. I do like the SCA numbers that I run each gameday thread, but frankly after Davidson and Klef everyone is 28-30 chances against per 60. THAT is a cluster!

  101. Surly says:

    RexLibris:
    So I went to check the Vollman charts this evening and was surprised to see a few things:

    1. Big cluster in the QualComp range. McLellan doesn’t play some of the usual matchup games we see from other coaches.

    2. Pretty decent collection of blue bubbles in CorsiRel and the names are gathered together pretty close. The only outlier is Gazdic and his gp sample size likely isn’t big enough to draw many conclusions.

    3. Fayne and Klefbom are almost overlapping, reinforcing the argument that CorsiRel is a poor measure of defensive ability.

    Worth a look if you haven’t recently.

    http://www.hockeyabstract.com/playerusagecharts

    Thanks for the link. I decided to look up MTL/Petry and now I’m angry

  102. "Steve Smith" says:

    RexLibris: 3. Fayne and Klefbom are almost overlapping, reinforcing the argument that CorsiRel is a poor measure of defensive ability.

    But CorsiRel has nothing to do with the location or size of the bubbles…

  103. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Respectfully disagree. I still don’t understand why McLellan isn’t running Fayne with Sekera. If he did that, he could use Davidson in the Klefbom role until he returns. I do like the SCA numbers that I run each gameday thread, but frankly after Davidson and Klef everyone is 28-30 chances against per 60. THAT is a cluster!

    Oh come on, at least disagree with some disrespect and name-calling!

    🙂

    I like Fayne, I lobbied for him as a UFA and defended the signing to legions of smug Flames fans last year so I have some skin there, but I think he does have limitations and strengths that are perhaps best served in a different scheme.

    Maybe Fayne needs some time to adjust to McLellan’s deployment because I don’t think he’s forgotten how to play defense, and he is big, RH and sturdy.

    On paper, Fayne-Sekera makes sense, but what frustrates me is that they have one length of rope for Fayne and another for Schultz.

    On another note, I found a gif that perfectly sums up what happens when you let us armchair GMs build a roster: http://imgur.com/gallery/lVcup6K

  104. RexLibris says:

    “Steve Smith”: But CorsiRel has nothing to do with the location or size of the bubbles…

    No, but setting it to CorsiRel is a better indicator than straight Corsi.

    The location was interesting when I compared it to other teams by way of ZS and matchups.

    And the TOI bubbles were, in many cases, closer in size than we’ve seen previously.

    I hadn’t checked the Vollman charts yet this season so it was intriguing to see McLellan’s deployment strategy laid out on the graph.

  105. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Going to weigh in (pun intended) on a couple of items.

    1) Let’s say you sign Byfuglien to a 6 year deal. The last two years will almost undoubtedly be trouble given his size and conditioning history. So you structure a deal to have a lower actual pay towards the end, a la Horcoff, in the hopes you can move him to a cap floor team later.
    For example:
    7-7-7-6-5-4 works out to 6 years at $6m per season.

    1 part B) Why do you even sign Byfuglien in the first place? Because he is the best potential money-only option out there. The Oilers for far too long have signed or traded for bottom end defensemen. Byfuglien instantly goes to the top of the Oiler depth chart and pushes everyone down into more appropriate roles.
    He is right-handed. He skates for miles. He is physical. He has a mean streak. He doesn’t take crap from anyone. He has a big shot. He can make a pass. He can run a power play.
    Yes, his size, conditioning, and occasional turnovers are a problem. If he did not have warts like these there is no way Winnipeg would not have signed him before now. There is no way the Oilers can acquire a truly elite top pair D without giving up something very dear. Byfuglien can be had for just money, most likely.
    But again, for me the most important aspect is to stop feeding the likes of Klefbom, Nurse, Davidson, and Reinhart to the wolves and shelter them. Acquiring Byfuglien does that.
    The first 3 or 4 years of that contract should be fine. I completely agree the last 2 years will likely be a boat anchor, but there are no perfect solutions, only better solutions. This is one of the better solutions out there–maybe the best.

    2) Burns? Do you know how much it would cost to trade for Burns? A boat load. San Jose paid a hefty price for him and his performance since arriving in Silicon Valley has been exemplary. The Sharks, if they don’t re-sign him, will demand the moon for him. Are you all willing to pay a price along the lines of Nuge and a 1st and something else? I am not. That’s along the lines of what the Sharks will likely ask to gift a 50-60 point, tough, big D-man to a division rival.

    Byfuglien has risks. And he has warts. If he didn’t he wouldn’t even be available as an option.

  106. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris: Oh come on, at least disagree with some disrespect and name-calling!

    :)

    I like Fayne, I lobbied for him as a UFA and defended the signing to legions of smug Flames fans last year so I have some skin there, but I think he does have limitations and strengths that are perhaps best served in a different scheme.

    Maybe Fayne needs some time to adjust to McLellan’s deployment because I don’t think he’s forgotten how to play defense, and he is big, RH and sturdy.

    On paper, Fayne-Sekera makes sense, but what frustrates me is that they have one length of rope for Fayne and another for Schultz.

    On another note, I found a gif that perfectly sums up what happens when you let us armchair GMs build a roster: http://imgur.com/gallery/lVcup6K

    Haha! As someone who has spent a lifetime wiring speakers wrong the first time, etcetera, I love that gif. I agree Fayne is not ideal for McLellan, and speed may cost him his career, but would argue he is one of the six best men on the roster who can play defense.

    The other thing is that the Player Usage Charts are 10 games behind this year

  107. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    leadfarmer:
    square_wheels,

    Keeping those two while letting Stralman go was a huge mistake.

    Yup! And many of us here said exactly that at the time those deals were signed, especially Girardi’s. Oops, there goes the money that should have been given to Stralman, we said.

  108. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    godot10: Burns has one year left after this year.San Jose has to decide this summer whether to extend him or not.They do not have a 1st round draft choice, so if the plan is to not extend him, they will want to execute a trade before the draft.

    The OIlers can pursue both Hamonic and Burns, because Hamonic has that exceptionally value for money contract.

    Burns will cost the 2016 1st plus something.

    Plus a sh!t ton.

  109. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    3) Hamonic likely isn’t going anywhere until the draft, due to the Boychuk injury.

  110. spoiler says:

    böök¡je: When all of you achieve a day or so of national notoriety, I hope your mug shot makes you look like Nick Nolte!

    Dude… low blow!

    I don’t know why everyone is giving you grief about your hair… I think you look GREAT for 45!

    🙂

  111. godot10 says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker":
    Going to weigh in (pun intended) on a couple of items.

    1) Let’s say you sign Byfuglien to a 6 year deal. The last two years will almost undoubtedly be trouble given his size and conditioning history. So you structure a deal to have a lower actual pay towards the end, a la Horcoff, in the hopes you can move him to a cap floor team later.
    For example:
    7-7-7-6-5-4 works out to 6 years at $6m per season.

    With the new CBA rules, one risks salary cap recapture penalties in front-loading contracts. It is a dumb thing to do, especially for a defensemen not committed to fitness.

    Like with drafting, one better be sure your aging D are superior skaters.

    Burns is a far better risk on a long contract.

    He may be on the market this summer. If he is, he is preferable to Byfuglien.

  112. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Setoguchi, Coyle and a 1st went for a 45-point D-man and a 2nd.

    Now Burns is a top 3 offensive D-man on a regular basis who puts up 60 points.

    The price to a division rival is going to be astronomical.

  113. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: Dude… low blow!

    I don’t know why everyone is giving you grief about your hair… I think you look GREAT for 45!

    :-)

    Hair at 45 means you have won.

  114. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    godot10: With the new CBA rules, one risks salary cap recapture penalties in front-loading contracts.It is a dumb thing to do, especially for a defensemen not committed to fitness.

    Like with drafting, one better be sure your aging D are superior skaters.

    Burns is a far better risk on a long contract.

    He may be on the market this summer.If he is, he is preferable to Byfuglien.

    He may be, but at what cost to a division rival? What if the ask is the 2016 1st and Nugent-Hopkins?

    The Oilers would decline and San Jose could move him east.

    P.S. the risk on recapture penalties is low here. You’re paying him from 30-36. If he were older I would agree.

  115. maxwell_mischief says:

    Do we know more about the Yakimov situation? Has he just been loaned or has his contract been terminated?

  116. Lowetide says:

    maxwell_mischief:
    Do we know more about the Yakimov situation? Has he just been loaned or has his contract been terminated?

    AHL website had them reassigning him, implying control. Chances are he is gone and will not be back, but light a candle.

  117. maxwell_mischief says:

    Lowetide,

    Too bad, I liked the idea of what he could provide at 24-25.
    Thanks!
    side bar – I have loved reading your work/following the boards, and was relieved this holiday when I was back home, and happened upon your radio show, that you have a very cool voice. I was always nervous about hearing your voice, like I would have to hate you because you have an annoying voice – like a blind date, who looks cute, but whose voice sucks and that is enough to not ever want to see them again.
    Cheers

  118. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    I said I would keep it to hockey talk, but just a warning markets are still set for a very rough ride. That remains the case.

    China is down almost 7 percent and even Japan down 3 percent. The yen is sharply stronger as well.

    US futures are down 1 percent and I think it only a matter of time before 2000 on the S&P cracks again. 4 bearish engulfing candle patterns on that index in the past few months and MACD signals all very negative near-term. I’m not calling doomsday here but I don’t think 2016 will be a particularly happy year for markets, at least to start the year.

    I continue to recommend a conservative investment profile for this time. Cash, fixed income weights above what most brokers will be telling you to have. And stay safer in the US dollar for now as well.

    Oil futures are up. Why? Because everyone is short, not because things are better. Ironically, when the markets are dumping, one of the few places traders can shift their money to is oil, to cover some shorts.

    I’d still be looking for most asset classes to come lower before buying anything other than some puts (only if you know how to trade options, otherwise don’t touch them). I think a retest of some of the August flash crash lows may be coming soon.

    Any questions please DM me.

    Back to hockey.

  119. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Haha! As someone who has spent a lifetime wiring speakers wrong the first time, etcetera, I love that gif.

    Knew a guy who taught kids how to work the technical side of theatre.

    He used to have first year students re-cap the plugs on 220V extension cords.

    Until the day he plugged one in and it blew him across the room.

    Now he asks the students if they’re colour blind.

    I’ve done enough wiring and enough plumbing to know that I don’t know enough about either.

  120. RexLibris says:

    I think Yakimov put himself into the trade-asset bin here.

    Don’t think that erases his value, though, considering examples of players like Tarasenko, Kuznetsov and Burmistrov.

    Old Oilers would’ve flushed him by now.

    Let’s see what Chiarelli does.

  121. Lowetide says:

    maxwell_mischief:
    Lowetide,

    Too bad, I liked the idea of what he could provide at 24-25.
    Thanks!
    side bar – I have loved reading your work/following the boards, and was relieved this holiday when I was back home, and happened upon your radio show, that you have a very cool voice. I was always nervous about hearing your voice, like I would have to hate you because you have an annoying voice – like a blind date, who looks cute, but whose voice sucks and that is enough to not ever want to see them again.
    Cheers

    Well, I can assure you that I am very irritating in person, so you have something to look forward to! 🙂

  122. böök¡je says:

    kevin: By now you should know that she always has your best interests at heart.

    THAT’s the truth – despite all of my self destructive tendencies, she keeps trying to keep me in line. Love that woman! Honestly, I don’t know how she puts up with me.

  123. böök¡je says:

    spoiler: Dude… low blow!

    I don’t know why everyone is giving you grief about your hair… I think you look GREAT for 45!

    Thanks Spoiler!

    I guess I shouldn’t have shaved all my hair off earlier tonight… live interview on Tuesday could be rough. I never realized how bumpy my head is. I thought I would look like some cool bald guy, but I actually look like that guy from the Goonies!

  124. böök¡je says:

    Lowetide: Well, I can assure you that I am very irritating in person, so you have something to look forward to!

    Oh oh – see my earlier quote about shaving it all off. Damn you people and your slow advice.

    My wife told me not to shave it off…

  125. Water Fire says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker":
    I said I would keep it to hockey talk, but just a warning markets are still set for a very rough ride. That remains the case.

    China is down almost 7 percent and even Japan down 3 percent. The yen is sharply stronger as well.

    US futures are down 1 percent and I think it only a matter of time before 2000 on the S&P cracks again. 4 bearish engulfing candle patterns on that index in the past few months and MACD signals all very negative near-term. I’m not calling doomsday here but I don’t think 2016 will be a particularly happy year for markets, at least to start the year.

    I continue to recommend a conservative investment profile for this time. Cash, fixed income weights above what most brokers will be telling you to have. And stay safer in the US dollar for now as well.

    Oil futures are up. Why? Because everyone is short, not because things are better. Ironically, when the markets are dumping, one of the few places traders can shift their money to is oil, to cover some shorts.

    I’d still be looking for most asset classes to come lower before buying anything other than some puts (only if you know how to trade options, otherwise don’t touch them).I think a retest of some of the August flash crash lows may be coming soon.

    Any questions please DM me.

    Back to hockey.

    Please don’t keep it to hockey.

  126. Water Fire says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker":
    Going to weigh in (pun intended) on a couple of items.

    1) Let’s say you sign Byfuglien to a 6 year deal. The last two years will almost undoubtedly be trouble given his size and conditioning history. So you structure a deal to have a lower actual pay towards the end, a la Horcoff, in the hopes you can move him to a cap floor team later.
    For example:
    7-7-7-6-5-4 works out to 6 years at $6m per season.

    1 part B) Why do you even sign Byfuglien in the first place? Because he is the best potential money-only option out there. The Oilers for far too long have signed or traded for bottom end defensemen. Byfuglien instantly goes to the top of the Oiler depth chart and pushes everyone down into more appropriate roles.
    He is right-handed. He skates for miles. He is physical. He has a mean streak. He doesn’t take crap from anyone. He has a big shot. He can make a pass. He can run a power play.
    Yes, his size, conditioning, and occasional turnovers are a problem. If he did not have warts like these there is no way Winnipeg would not have signed him before now. There is no way the Oilers can acquire a truly elite top pair D without giving up something very dear. Byfuglien can be had for just money, most likely.
    But again, for me the most important aspect is to stop feeding the likes of Klefbom, Nurse, Davidson, and Reinhart to the wolves and shelter them. Acquiring Byfuglien does that.
    The first 3 or 4 years of that contract should be fine. I completely agree the last 2 years will likely be a boat anchor, but there are no perfect solutions, only better solutions. This is one of the better solutions out there–maybe the best.

    2) Burns? Do you know how much it would cost to trade for Burns? A boat load. San Jose paid a hefty price for him and his performance since arriving in Silicon Valley has been exemplary. The Sharks, if they don’t re-sign him, will demand the moon for him. Are you all willing to pay a price along the lines of Nuge and a 1st and something else? I am not. That’s along the lines of what the Sharks will likely ask to gift a 50-60 point, tough, big D-man to a division rival.

    Byfuglien has risks. And he has warts. If he didn’t he wouldn’t even be available as an option.

    There is a lot of flexibility with the cap going forward but decisions on who’s the core have to be made.

    Hall Nuge Yak 6 6 2.5
    Lucic McD Drai 6.5 .925 .925
    Pouliot Lander Kassian 4 .9875 1.5
    Hendricks Letestu Korp 1.85 1.8 2.5
    Khaira Pakarainen .875 1

    Klef Hamonic 4.167 3.3857
    Sekera 5.5 Lovejoy 1.4
    Nurse Davie .863 1.5
    Reinhart .925

    Talbot Broissoint 1.5 1

    Cap 59.158 Space 12.241. They’ll need 16- 20 mil for raises, the cap will go up and there are still non core forwards that could be moved. You could still add an expensive D and figure it out like the Hawks have had to do. The question is what do see as missing.

  127. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Water Fire,

    Have to also add bonuses in for McD, Drai, Nurse so the cap room is less than above as well.

  128. AsiaOil says:

    Hey NYCOIL – I will admit my hard asset inclinations right up front and belief that our fiat money system is coming unwound. The system “broke” in 2008 and we had a choice. Face up to a bunch of hurt to flush the system of the rot, corruption and mis-allocations of resources – or ban mark to market of assets, print free money like mad, and hope the problem just somehow goes away. We (well really the US Fed and congress) chose the latter. The fact that the fed is still taking emergency measures in terms of interest rates and other forms of support and accommodations 8 years on only emphasizes the seriousness of what we are up against. The inconceivable has become ordinary (important people talk about negative interest rates with a straight face these days) but that doesn’t make it sustainable.

    I thought the whole thing would unwind quicker than it has into hyper-inflation, but I have come to accept the premise of debt-induced deflation first – then really mad printing by central banks to try escape the fall into a deflationary black hole – then finally the hyper-inflation that wipes out confidence in the fiat inspired ponzi. Keep an eye on the supply chains like Asia-based exports and global shipping which have fallen into a sharp decline over the past year. I live on an island in the middle of the Pacific – this makes our situation more tenuous – and the stocking of all kinds of basic items has become drawn out and inconsistent. Of course the powers that be may have known that supply chain disruptions resulting from the demise of the “too big to fail” banks would be so chaotic that letting them actually go bankrupt is impossible. I’m willing to accept that idea – but if that’s the case – all they did was buy time. I would even be grateful for those measures if the extra time had been spent on something other than making an already obscenely wealthy elite even richer. We unfortunately live in interesting times.

    Oh well…..your fiscal doom porn fix for this evening….. 🙂

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker":
    I said I would keep it to hockey talk, but just a warning markets are still set for a very rough ride. That remains the case.

  129. theres oil in virginia says:

    AsiaOil: our fiat money system is coming unwound

    I strongly agree. Nice post. Thanks Asia and NY for posting on these issues. Looking forward to Spoiler perhaps chiming in soon.

  130. theres oil in virginia says:

    RexLibris: 1. Big cluster in the QualComp range. McLellan doesn’t play some of the usual matchup games we see from other coaches.

    Which, of course, invalidates the argument that Nuge-Eberle-Pouliot are seeing soft competition.

  131. frjohnk says:

    theres oil in virginia: Which, of course, invalidates the argument that Nuge-Eberle-Pouliot are seeing soft competition.

    Not seeing soft competition

    They are being soft competition 🙂

  132. PhrankLee says:

    If he can keep his speed and stays on current track with his positioning and physicality I think Khaira is the shoe in for Brodziaking.

  133. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    So is Kyle Platzer ever going to live up to his draft billing and earn him self an entry level deal? He could be our next Brodziak.

    😉 in case that wasn’t obvious.

  134. hunter1909 says:

    böök¡je: Thanks Spoiler!

    I guess I shouldn’t have shaved all my hair off earlier tonight… live interview on Tuesday could be rough. I never realized how bumpy my head is.I thought I would look like some cool bald guy, but I actually look like that guy from the Goonies!

    Are you serious? You shaved off your head hair before getting interviewed? Wtf?

    And if true about ignoring your wife’s opinion, well, good luck with that one also, lol.

  135. hunter1909 says:

    Must win game tonight.

    Therefore…

    4-3 Canes.

  136. theres oil in virginia says:

    frjohnk: Not seeing soft competition

    They are being soft competition

    BOOO!!!

    Heheh.

    🙂

  137. hunter1909 says:

    For 2016 just want to chime in re Chiarelli+McLellan: kudo’s to both for showing patience.

    The poor fans on the other hand have suffered for a decade.

    PS: Speak up: Anyone think Oilers have any chance aside from mathematical to make the playoffs?

  138. böök¡je says:

    hunter1909: Are you serious? You shaved off your head hair before getting interviewed? Wtf?

    And if true about ignoring your wife’s opinion, well, good luck with that one also, lol.

    No, I’m almost never serious here 🙂

    Thanks for the concern though. You are right, I should listen to my wife!

  139. hunter1909 says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker": China is down almost 7 percent and even Japan down 3 percent.

    Don’t worry. President Trump will help cause a war between Japan+China.

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker": I’m not calling doomsday here but I don’t think 2016 will be a particularly happy year for markets, at least to start the year.

    Once Donald Trump wins the election, things should improve.

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker": I continue to recommend a conservative investment profile for this time. Cash, fixed income weights above what most brokers will be telling you to have.

    Agreed. It’s always wise to be in decent if not excellent physical condition, since unhealthy people are always going to suffer. In any area populated by rich people, most won’t be able to call for help once civil order starts to break down, meanwhile possessing all manner of excellent things for the mob.

  140. hunter1909 says:

    böök¡je: No, I’m almost never serious here

    Thanks for the concern though.You are right, I should listen to my wife!

    What national news publication were you interviewed in? Is it still possible to see it?

  141. hunter1909 says:

    böök¡je: No, I’m almost never serious here

    I get it. Agreed. This place is good for blowing off steam.

  142. Washingtron says:

    Why doesn’t anyone suggest Nuge playing on the wing, not Drai? At least for face-offs.

  143. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Washingtron:
    Why doesn’t anyone suggest Nuge playing on the wing, not Drai?At least for face-offs.

    Hello. It has been suggested a few times. For that reason as well. Think LT himself has commented to that effect as well.

  144. rickithebear says:

    looking at Tough comp lines: From 363 fwds playing 20gm
    Lines by Average of comp rank per position LW-C-RW
    Player (pos rank)

    #1 Ladd (#1LW) – Little (4C) – Wheeler (1RW) (line avg 2)
    #2 Winnick (3LW) – Spaling (1C) – Lupul (5RW) (line avg 3)
    #3 XXX- toews (2C) – Hossa (4RW) (PR Avg 3)
    #4 Lazar (4LW) – Pageau (3C0 – XXX (PR avg 3.5)
    #5 Hall (2LW) – Draisatl (6C) – Purcell (6RW) (avg 4.67)
    #6 Hagelin (8LW) – Kesler (7C) – Silverberg (2RW) (line avg 5.67)
    #7 Pouliot (7LW) – RNH (11C) – Eberle (3RW) (avg 7)
    #8 Kunitz (11LW) – Crosby (9C) – Hornquist (7RW) (avg 9)
    #9 Tlusty (14LW) – Zajac (13C) – Palemeri (8 RW) (avg 11.67)
    #10 XXX-J. Stall (14C) – Nordstrom (12rw) (PR avg 13)
    #10 Marchand (#14LW) – (Begeron 12C) – XXX (PR avg 13)
    #12 Coulburne (6LW) – Stajan (16c) – Jones (18RW) (avg 13.33)

    These are the lines and pairs that avg playing against better than top 15 comp.

    Our schedule has been against very offensively deep teams.
    As the schedule softens the comps will go down for our lines.
    Mcdavids return should help us spread the comp.

    What Reason do we Pair nuge-Drai together?
    unless his shite FO% means plays wing with lander and Eberle.

  145. BONVIE says:

    hunter1909:
    For 2016 just want to chime in re Chiarelli+McLellan: kudo’s to both for showing patience.

    The poor fans on the other hand have suffered for a decade.

    PS: Speak up: Anyone think Oilers have any chance aside from mathematical to make the playoffs?

    Man I can’t see how with all those games in hand and still all alone in the basement. They have really tanked it up in must win games. Losses to Calgary, Anaheim, and Vancouver, right after they looked like they were close to being in the hunt.

    I still want to be positive about their chances but they seem to be able to find ways to lose every time they play these really important games.

  146. rickithebear says:

    Manager update:
    Tambo (T)
    MacT (M)
    PC (P)
    Lines and Pairs By toughest comp faced.
    Coach usage.

    Hall (T) – Draisatl (M) – Purcell (M)
    Pouliot (M) – RNH (T) – Eberle (T)
    Khaira (T) – Mcdavid (M) – Yakupov (T)
    Hendricks (M) – Lander (T) – Pakarinen (M)
    Gazdic (M) – Letestu (P) – Korpikoski (P)
    Klink (M)

    Klefbom (T) – Fayne (M)
    Sekera (P) – Hunt (M)
    Davidson (T) – Nurse (M)
    Gryba (P) – Schultz (T/M)
    Ference (M)
    ———————
    Reinhart (P)
    Nikitin (M)

    Talbot (M/P)
    NIlsson (P)
    ——————–
    Broissoit (M)

  147. böök¡je says:

    hunter1909: What national news publication were you interviewed in? Is it still possible to see it?

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/what-bob-from-calgary-really-meant-when-he-posted-his-nyt-comment/article27980194/

  148. GCW_69 says:

    frjohnk:
    Lucic has said he and his family really like LA.

    Even if the cap does not go up much, LA could make the room to sign Kopitar and Lucic.

    I don’t think Lucic makes free agency.

    But if he does, Chia no doubt goes after him.

    And same with Buff.

    Would need to overpay in money and term to get both.

    Those two contracts could be boat anchors in 4 years.

    Right when the McDavid cluster is entering their prime and the Hall cluster is still in theirs.

    I really like Lucic and Buff for the next couple of years, not so much in 2020.

    They can make one or the other work budget-wise, but not both unless they flush Eberle/Nuge and Yak

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