THE WORLD IS TURNING AS IT SHOULD

by Lowetide

In the end, it was not to be—and that is a good thing. The job of a general manager is to deal from strength to address weakness, and in Edmonton’s case that may make Ryan Nugent-Hopkins available in the spring of 2019—you can’t hurry maturity and it is unfair to continue sending teenagers into the breach. Not trading the Nuge to Nashville was the right thing to do.

OILERS CENTERS, 2015-16

oilers centers over season

The Oilers get some impressive offense from this crew on the power play, the numbers for the centers are exceptional with the man advantage. Here are the PP totals and NHL rank among all centers:

  • Nugent-Hopkins 40, 2-6-8 (No. 28 tie)
  • Letestu 41, 1-5-6 (No. 43 tie)
  • Draisaitl 31, 2-3-5 (No. 52 tie)
  • McDavid 13, 2-1-3 (No. 80 tie)

Of course, the most common game state—and the most difficult one to deliver offense in—is at even strength. Here are the EV totals and NHL rank among all centers:

  • Draisaitl 31, 7-20-27 (No. 2 tie)
  • Nugent-Hopkins 40, 6-14-20 (No. 20 tie)
  • McDavid 13, 3-6-9 (No. 101 tie)
  • Letestu 41, 3-1-4 (No. 153 tie)
  • Lander 40, 0-2-2 (No. 175 tie)

Leon has been incredible, the combination of Hall-Draisaitl is a major story this season—would love to see them in the playoffs someday soon. Nugent-Hopkins’ numbers look good from here, and of course McDavid was outstanding before injury and I imagine he will push hard upon return. Loaded at center, folks—just need experience. Never fear, Nuge turns 23 in April.

A quick note: I would not have made the trade for Seth Jones, and the contract Edmonton has in their pocket for Nuge gives him extra value. I would not trade Nuge straight up for Ryan Johansen, although for me the new Nashville center is a more valuable player today. Contracts and control matter, folks.

BLUE TARGETS (WITH AN EXPLANATION)

During the stretch run, it will be interesting to see how a few UFA defenders perform. Here are some blue I will be watching between now and the end of the regular season.

  • Jason Demers, Dallas: Todd McLellan had him in San Jose and Demers has a nice range of skills. Can pass the puck, has a good shot and is on pace for around 30 points this season.
  • Brian Campbell, Florida: Turns 37 this spring, no way he makes $7 million next season and maybe he can help this young blue. It doesn’t help that Florida has turned the damned corner.
  • Keith Yandle, NY Rangers: A strong offensive defenseman with real talent and creativity. Great skater, big shot from the point, he is going to be very expensive.
  • Dustin Byfuglien, Winnipeg: He is going to cost the sun, the moon and the stars and I think he might he a winger.
  • Travis Hamonic, NY Islanders: He is not a UFA, but the name is out there. I very much doubt he will be traded until Boychuk is back (or even in summer), but he is an interesting option depending on price.

CHIARELLI’S TRADES, AFTER 41

chiarellis trades

I think that’s a fair assessment so far. I give Chiarelli enormous credit for addressing the goaltending situation and avoiding a 35-year-old, $6 million goalie via free agency (the Ryan Miller plan) and the Nilsson kicker is a flat-out steal. Less enthralled with his other summer deals, especially the Reinhart trade, but it is probably true that I overvalue draft picks.

I am heartened that we can see the vision here (exception: Korpikoski trade), as PC is knocking down problems in the order that logical and reasonable solutions present themselves. I would have hoped he would be more aggressive on the defense, and if he was trading what amounted to a top-10 pick, a more immediate solution was necessary. That said, projecting prospects isn’t an exact science and Brandon Davidson was not an obvious candidate to do what he did this season. I’ll call him innocent, with an explanation. Fair? Or do you believe he failed completely? A case could be made for that you know, his showcase deal is in the minors.

Jason’s interview was exceptional, Kassian came across as genuine and real. I am not here to advocate for anyone, but can say that in my life I have seen a lot of lives ruined by these kinds of issues. Although second and third chances should not come easy, once given the hope is for success and a return to public life. I wish this for Zack Kassian. Sincerely.

THE STORY, REACTION

It is always interesting to see how issues are framed. Above, I told you my take on the Seth Jones deal (the Jackets got fleeced, folks) in regard to last evening’s trade. I mentioned that it is folly to trade Nuge and leave barely 20 Leon and teenage McDavid in charge of the wheel. Others have differing views:

  • Jim Matheson: If the Preds were looking at Nugent-Hopkins, who may find himself on the wing with Draisaitl when McDavid returns sometime this month to centre another line, the Oilers had the depth at centre to go for Jones. Source

Matty wanted this trade, that is my take. I would vehemently disagree with the idea Edmonton had the depth, and would add a line in there about Jones being unproven. Folks, this wasn’t a trade to make. If Peter Chiarelli announced yesterday he had dealt Nuge for Jones—with no veteran C coming back—I would have hammered him senseless on this very page.

You cannot go fast enough to get there early. I think that criticism applies to the Griffin Reinhart deal, and sure as hell would have applied to Nuge-for-Jones. Jim Matheson missed the mark. There is nothing to see in this (non) trade, beyond a capable GM doing his job properly. That’s your lead, above and below the fold. The story this morning is that Jarmo Kekalainen is one step closer to being a scout again.

candy colored clown

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

This morning at 10, brimming with topics! TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Talbot as a long term option, what to do with RFAs, and Seth Jones.
  • Jesse Spector, The Sporting News. No Rock for the Hall, but two gems go in.
  • Brad Gagnon, Bleacher Report. A big NFL weekend.
  • Frank Seravelli, TSN. After ages without real trades, a watershed Wednesday in the NHL.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. Talk soon!

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Jaxon

I was just looking for articles about the 2005 draft and ran across this interesting article about Benoit Pouliot. I had no idea he fought through that kind of adversity as a youngster. Heartbreaking.

http://espn.go.com/espn/magazine/archives/news/story?page=magazine-20050606-article37

Have a hanky handy.

Jaxon

RJ2016,

Good point. The percentages were over 20 years of drafts, which is a pretty decent sample size. At the time of the draft nobody really knows. Similar to a player’s development, you can’t really say how strong a draft was until 5 years down the road. There have been numerous drafts where a lot of knowledgable scouts and media said it was the strongest pool in years, but in reality, 5 years later it isn’t nearly as strong as suggested. Plus, the other way around, I don’t think anyone knew how strong the 2003 draft was going to be or how strong the D group of 2008 was going to be. 1st overall always seems to elevate the impression of the the entire group. Everyone thought Crosby’s year was going to be quite strong but it actually ended up being one of the weakest of the past decade. So to say that 2015 is a better draft is still unknown at this point and more importantly Chiarelli did not know how strong it was at the time even though there were a lot of opinions. Especially when you get to picks 15 and 33 where it statistically becomes a crap shoot.

RJ2016

I’m curious; at what point does the strength of the draft become a factor in those statistics?

Jaxon:
LMHF#1,

You only quoted part of my comment. I went on to say that:
“Via Cullen, over 20 years of drafts only 19% of #15 picks have turned into top 6 forwards or top 4 D and only 38% were likely to play more than 100 NHL games. At #33, only 12% turn into top 6 forwards or top 4 D and only 32% were likely to make it to 100 games played.”

Those are the picks. We don’t know what he could have done with those picks. We don’t know how many teams he talked to about other young D. It is speculation. Who was the ‘right’ guy? And, was the right guy available?

What bad info did he rely on? That is all speculation that keeps getting repeated with no evidence to back it up. I would have preferred a right hander but beyond that, why is Reinhart the wrong guy?

Jaxon

Spoils,

I think you’re overpaying, but I like the idea. I think you can only ‘win’ trades by getting the best player in future years, which means you have to gamble a bit on developing players. I would be building for RD to have impact years by 2017-2018. The two RD I’d have on my radar at the moment are Madison Bowey in Washington and Michael Paliotta in Columbus. Maybe Pysyk in Buffalo and Petrovic in Florida as well.

PS I agree with you on Sekera’s contract. I like the player but I think he’s overpaid and his NMC could really hamstring the Oilers someday.

Jaxon

LMHF#1,

You only quoted part of my comment. I went on to say that:
“Via Cullen, over 20 years of drafts only 19% of #15 picks have turned into top 6 forwards or top 4 D and only 38% were likely to play more than 100 NHL games. At #33, only 12% turn into top 6 forwards or top 4 D and only 32% were likely to make it to 100 games played.”

Those are the picks. We don’t know what he could have done with those picks. We don’t know how many teams he talked to about other young D. It is speculation. Who was the ‘right’ guy? And, was the right guy available?

What bad info did he rely on? That is all speculation that keeps getting repeated with no evidence to back it up. I would have preferred a right hander but beyond that, why is Reinhart the wrong guy?

"Steve Smith"

böök¡je: Is it me you’re looking for?

Do I look like a human interest reporter for the Canadian media?

böök¡je

Bruce McCurdy: Hello?

Is it me you’re looking for?

böök¡je

Lowetide:
Note: Some people are now in moderation. If you don’t see your post, I am moderating you. This isn’t a free society, and you have yourself to blame. I have children, don’t need more. Thanks for your consideration.

But I got a haircut!!!!

Edit: Phew, I’m not moderated…

Bruce McCurdy

theres oil in virginia: Is that why I haven’t seen any of Bruce’s posts?

Hello?

PhrankLee

Lowetide: Note: Some people are now in moderation. If you don’t see your post, I am moderating you. This isn’t a free society, and you have yourself to blame. I have children, don’t need more. Thanks for your consideration.

Testing, testing 1, 2, 3.

Edit: Yissss (fist pump)

AsiaOil

I know but picking “winners and losers” with prospects after half a season doesn’t do much except highlight our biases. Plus Barzal was the NYI pick and there is no basis for using him as the comparison (Oilers could have picked anyone). If you accept Schuckers 2011 work on draft pick value then GR should be expected to play about 600 NHL games to cover the bet – if he doesn’t – then we overpaid. That’s a pretty high bar to clear (which supports the argument that Chia paid in full) but there is little evidence to show how this is going to turn out one way or another at this point.

Lowetide: Whatever happened to reading comprehension. It CLEARLY states SO FAR!

stevezie

Lowetide: Some people are now in moderation.

And Stevezie made it through!!! Hahahaaha! Take that, angry people. Look at me now dad!!!

Woodguy

stevezie,

Question: At what age does someone’s draft position/junior career cease to matter in their scouting report?

Depends on what Stu and Yz thinks of him.

AsiaOil

Agree strongly – what happened to wait 5 years LT? GR won a job fair and square over Davidson and Nurse in TC – then he got hurt. Davidson made the most of his chance and good for him. Nurse is a higher ceiling prospect and you would never get him for those 2 draft picks. We have a backlog of crappy 6/7 dmen and nowhere to hide another kid – especially one a bit shy on offense like GR – so demoting him and developing him properly is sensible. I’d have Nurse down there with him if we had any depth at all.

As for Marincin – he’s a lefty and another 3rd pair guy we have in abundance – where exactly would you play him this year? Sekera/Nurse/Klef/Davidson/GR are all better – so he would have been in the minors or lost on waivers for nothing. We got something for him and I doubt TOR was the only one contacted – this was the market for Marincin. Gryba fills holes (RHD – grit) that Marincin does not and at an affordable price. You are really undervaluing the chaos and carousel of partners (mostly awful) Gryba has had to endure – and he’s performed adequately.

As for Seth Jones – we don’t need him – Nurse will likely be close and brings leadership in spades. Jones would have been another guy who needs shelter on a team that has none to offer. He is good though and Columbus did fine. People who say he’s a 3rd pair dman are being ingenuous – of course he’s 3rd pair on a defense like Nashville’s and his usage was perfectly sensible. Like they would play him on the top pair ahead of Weber and Josi.

Now that NAS is out of the market – the target is firmly fixed on Hamonic or Shattenkirk – and Ebs or Yak/Shultz is the bait. Still think a 3 way deal between NYI/NJD/EDM is the match – not sure if we are a match with STL.

Lois Lowe: Barzal

theres oil in virginia

Lowetide: Note: Some people are now in moderation. If you don’t see your post, I am moderating you. This isn’t a free society, and you have yourself to blame. I have children, don’t need more. Thanks for your consideration.

Is that why I haven’t seen any of Bruce’s posts?

RJ2016

Adam Wu,

For 41 games. In the off-season, they could add a veteran centre, with size to play a 2/3 role. It’s a lot easier to add that centre than a 2/4 RHD on the right side of 30.

Professor Q

Spoils:
I’d like to see the Oilers put a package deal out there for a prospect D with a chance at becoming a legit #1 guy. Ideally a team that has a chance at the playoffs and could stand to add some scoring NOW.

I’d trade Sekera (the contract is an albatross), Purcell, top pick in 2016 and top pick in 2017 for ???

Josh Morrissey
Jacob Trouba
Olli Maatta

who else? is that way too much?

There’s no playoffs this year with this current D. but there’s no Stanley ever (even with McDavid) if we don’t get a #1 guy.

Maybe Nurse or Klefbom grow into that roll… adding another prospect to the mix helps our odds.

I would definitely say that would be way too much to give up.

RJ2016

We will see how this trade shapes up in 2-4 years. If Jones becomes a top-2 D, like many think he will, then this was a good trade for CBJ.

The one part I haven’t read here is the fact that CBJ is 11 points out of the playoffs. If Jones struggles in the short-term, they increase their odds of drafting Matthews. Granted, it’s not the same odds as previous years, but they’d still have the best odds.

Also not mentioned was the fact that Johansen had been scratched a number of times this season, was playing as a #3C before the trade and that re-signing him was going to be a major pain in the ass.

I think this was a solid move by Kekalainen, but we aren’t going to know for the next few years.

stevezie

Question: At what age does someone’s draft position/junior career cease to matter in their scouting report? I think Jones’ superior jr career matter when ranking him against, say, Nurse or Klefbom, and helps us to project him into the future. Clearly this is not the universal position.

What about Yak’s former glory? Is it still cause for hope?

Obviously the time when someone could try to argue Van Riemsdyk is a better shot than Couture is gone, but when does it become irrelevant? 22? 24? 20? Speaking especially to those who think Nurse and Jones are roughly the same. (I love Nurse, but I’m not there yet.)

Protagonist

Hope is a good thing:
LT: Can’t help but enjoy the passion of Oiler fans that you manage to bring out on a regular basis. I would like to caution on equating the highest scoring player(s) with being the best or most valuable – particularly when it comes to winning championships (Ovechkin, Thornton, the Sedins, Nash, Heatley, Kovalchuk,and Tavares are examples that come quickly to mind).Incredible talents, amazing success at the NHL level, lots of points, but no Stanley Cups. Toews and Kopitar are the easiest, most recent examples of two-way players that drive championship teams, score and defend equally well, and make the players around them better.Obviously, they need the right parts around them – it really is a team game, and then there’s the whole goalie piece.

To be fair, only a single team can win the cup every year, and even if it uniformly rotated between teams with no repeats you’d still have what, 18 chances over your average career? There are lots of good players who have never won a Stanley cup and lots of mooks who did. The fact that some really great players did not in fact win the cup doesn’t mean they aren’t tremendously important or valuable players, or everyone would be rushing to acquire Trevor Lewis from the kings.

In a vaccum, without some form of refined statistic like WAR or other player value stats, individual production (weighted against things like WOWY, relative team strength and era factors) are some of the only metrics we can actually use to evaluate players. Without them, we’re left talking about who we like, and that gets us nowhere as belief is terribly subjective.

Quinlan

ASkoreyko: Given the nature of this blog, I wouldn’t expect anything less. If you want to argue about things that can not be constructively measured then this is probably not the best place on the interwebs to do it.

Qualitative statements backed by opinion make it very difficult to move a conversation forward.

qft

Adam Wu

Crosby was sheltered by a veteran with a pedigree of no less than Mario Lemieux for almost half a season.

McDavid hasn’t even played half a season’s worth of games yet.

It should not be overlooked that so far Drai has not successfully accomplished anything without being zoomed by Hall, nor would it be fair to expect him to this early in his career.

With respect specifically to RNH, the Oilers have no other center with his defensive ability. Substracting him from the team means making the hole in Team D even bigger. As a direct result, any returning D from RNH in a trade would need to be a better D than a returning D in a trade featuring someone like Eberle or Yak.

Spoils

I’d like to see the Oilers put a package deal out there for a prospect D with a chance at becoming a legit #1 guy. Ideally a team that has a chance at the playoffs and could stand to add some scoring NOW.

I’d trade Sekera (the contract is an albatross), Purcell, top pick in 2016 and top pick in 2017 for ???

Josh Morrissey
Jacob Trouba
Olli Maatta

who else? is that way too much?

There’s no playoffs this year with this current D. but there’s no Stanley ever (even with McDavid) if we don’t get a #1 guy.

Maybe Nurse or Klefbom grow into that roll… adding another prospect to the mix helps our odds.

RPG

Some video highlights from McDavid at practice today. Somebody is gonna be ready very soon. I can’t wait!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osKbGfPoq-Y&feature=youtu.be&sc_ref=twitter

Hope is a good thing

LT: Can’t help but enjoy the passion of Oiler fans that you manage to bring out on a regular basis. I would like to caution on equating the highest scoring player(s) with being the best or most valuable – particularly when it comes to winning championships (Ovechkin, Thornton, the Sedins, Nash, Heatley, Kovalchuk,and Tavares are examples that come quickly to mind). Incredible talents, amazing success at the NHL level, lots of points, but no Stanley Cups. Toews and Kopitar are the easiest, most recent examples of two-way players that drive championship teams, score and defend equally well, and make the players around them better. Obviously, they need the right parts around them – it really is a team game, and then there’s the whole goalie piece.

If you are thinking just wait a bit before judging Ovechkin and Tavares, I say: “exactly”. Players and trades take time to evaluate. And we also need to give Chiarelii and TMac time to see everyone playing together when they are healthy, time to train and teach them, and then trade as needed. We really should not be in too big of a hurry to trade the Nuge.

Bag of Pucks

OF17: You’re right about that, but Crosby and Malkin had Staal to fall back on, and while he was a young C as well, he provided a lot of the defensive cover that made it easier for the 2 big guns to flourish. That’s the Nuge role, and trading him without having a plan to get back another Nuge role guy would be a mistake.

Agreed, but the backup plan should not be a problem. Getting a two way 3C in free agency or via trade is significantly easier than procuring a franchise defenceman.

This is the the thing that most aggravates me about this Nuge for Jones would’ve been a bad trade for the Oil talk. You can possibly make a tenable argument for that if RNH is your only franchise C but Drai and McDavid have since fallen into the team’s lap. This is the whole idea behind BPA, you draft the best available, and then trade the surplus depth to balance the roster!

If folks agree that’s the BPA model, then the only tenable argument for not trading RNH for a Top 2 D is you project Nuge as a better player than both McDavid and Drai.

The reality is, people aren’t sure about projected value, they don’t want to make a mistake, so they dither. Meanwhile Columbus lands Jones.

Protagonist

Woodguy
I didn’t try to frame the issue at all.

Sometimes I do, but not this time.

You say you don’t, but again cherry pick stats that benefit one player over another and continue to use the ones that benefit your narrative. There is no shame in doing this, and 90% of most informed discussions involve trotting out stats this way or that way but I just wanted to bring to your attention there are ways of looking at the stats that aren’t quite as kind as a strict summation.

My point was that neither player projects to be a true/dominant/elite/MSM approved #1 center, and while both are still very good at 0.75+ PPG on the regular, one player has improved year over year while the other has mostly stayed the same, so there is a better case to be made that RJ can morph into that player than RNH. While their point totals (outliers removed) are very similar, one set of stats shows growth, while the other remains constant at a high level of hockey.

Taken from an aerial view and with a few grains of salt, we have a player who from his draft year has been consistently a very good (but not great year). He has been a consistent performer and a “low 30s” NHL centre for his entire career. The other player started out as a (good) fringe NHLer with some good stats, and has improved year over year into a very good (but not great) center and a “mid 20s” NHL centre for the last few years, perhaps peaking as high as maaaabye 15th best in the league?

Would you rather have the consistent performer who’s got it in 5th gear for his whole career, or would you rather have the performer who started in the low gears and has quickly gotten it into 5th gear? Some other questions: given that what you’re after (almost always) is someone to shift into 6th, who is more likely, the career 5th or the one who’s shown growth? It’s also fair to ask, who is more likely to shift back into 4th?

I don’t think it’s unfair to suggest that the year over year growth marks Johansen as the player with the higher possible ceiling, while RNH is marked as the more consistent player. But given that 6th gear players are more highly valued than 5th geared players, I think it’s entirely reasonable to suggest that some NHL teams would value the chance at a 6th gear higher than a consistent 5th.

Man that gear analogy got clunky by the end of that.

ASkoreyko

haters:
Woodguy,

The fact is your using point production to compare players.
Try watching Johanson and Rnh through non oiler colored glasses and tell me again how similar in skill and impact they are.

Given the nature of this blog, I wouldn’t expect anything less. If you want to argue about things that can not be constructively measured then this is probably not the best place on the interwebs to do it.

Qualitative statements backed by opinion make it very difficult to move a conversation forward.

OF17

Bag of Pucks:
It is severely framing the issue imo to refer to a generational player and a 3ov pick, who have both played extremely well in a limited sample size, as the ’18 year old and 20 year old. McDavid and Drai are the future and the future is now despite attempts to frame it otherwise. Who was the vet C that sheltered Crosby and Malkin? Does anyone remember and if they do, do you remember how briefly the shelter lasted? Same for Kane and Toews. The cream rises to the top – fast.

It’s about contract but it’s also about asset value and upside. RNH will be the 3C on this club, or a winger, sooner rather than later. Seth Jones projects as a franchise 1D. The Oil win the trade hands down on asset value and filling organizational need.

Many on this board underrate the impact of a true franchise D. No player other than the goalie impacts the game more.

You’re right about that, but Crosby and Malkin had Staal to fall back on, and while he was a young C as well, he provided a lot of the defensive cover that made it easier for the 2 big guns to flourish. That’s the Nuge role, and trading him without having a plan to get back another Nuge role guy would be a mistake.

Eberle for Hamonic, Shattenkirk, or Vatanen should be the focus right now or something similar. Don’t trade Nuge. Add a top-9 forward with two-way ability (depending on price, Ladd, Eriksson, Brouwer, Boedker, Nielsen, Backes, Lucic, even a Jamie McGinn), maybe try a Fayne + for Wisniewski type deal, and you’re set.

LW: Hall, Boedker, Pouliot, Korpikoski
C: Draisaitl, McDavid, Nuge, Letestu
RW: Purcell, Yakupov, Kassian, Hendricks
LD: Klefbom, Sekera, Nurse
RD: Hamonic, Wisniewski, Reinhart/Davidson
G: Talbot, Nilsson

Woodguy

Protagonist,

You’re also picking a frame of reference that flatters RNH versus Ryan Johansen. Year over year, another story emerges:

Actually I didn’t.

1) I actually didn’t include 12/13 as it decimates RJ’s points/game and that didn’t seem fair .

If you use all NHL games then its:

RNH – .725 (better than the time period I picked, not worse)
RJ- .625 (much worse, not better)

I know RJ is a much better player than his draft +1,+2, +3 years show so I didn’t think it was pertinent to the discussion.

So its the opposite of flattering RNH by using the time periods that I used.

2) You are comparing same calendar year to same calendar year. RNH was in the draft year after so the comparison should be:

RNH – RJ
Draft + 1
0.838 – Not in NHL
Draft + 2
0.600 – 0.313
Draft +3
0.70 – 0.30
Draft + 4
0.736 – 0.768
Draft + 5
0.70 (current) – 0.865
Draft +6
Future – 0.684 (current)

So RNH is much better in 1-3, RJ is slightly better in 4, and a bit better in 5 (so far) and we’ll see about 6 in 18 months.

I didn’t try to frame the issue at all.

Sometimes I do, but not this time.

Nate780

GCW_69,

How do you realistically compare Yakupov to Eberle in defensive categories on paper when Eberle has never left the top 2 lines and Yakupov was playing 3rd, 4th line though?

Woodguy

haters:
Woodguy,

The fact is your using point production to compare players.
Try watching Johanson and Rnh through non oiler colored glasses and tell me again how similar in skill and impact they are.

I didn’t know that there are style points.

Both have played the toughest comp from 13/14 until now (actually RJ had easier comp this year)

I really don’t care how they do it, just what they do.

edit: – Its funny, I have moved to using more goal based metrics when the samples are big enough because that is what matters (and corsi was originally adopted as a goal proxy when you didn’t have enough goal data to make a good prediction)

Now I get told that points don’t matter as much as “how” they get the points.

How they look doing it?

Really?

GCW_69

Nate780:
GCW_69,

Yakupov > Eberle in the defensive zone, IMO.

Prior to this season, the numbers don’t back that up, I don’t think. This year, hard to judge because they haven’t played at the same time.

Woodguy

cc,

Yeah, I was looking at points.

CF% is very team dependent and RelCor can be very usage dependent.

He’s about where Schenn and Bogo were and a bit behind Hedman.

Extend Russell

Tbh I don’t do nuge for jones on a strictly player control basis. Not sure what Seth commands this summer .

Nate780

haters,

The fact is you were using his point production to compare the 2, and now that it’s a lot closer than you thought it was you’re back peddling and deflecting.

If you want to change your comparison to 2 way play, then RNH all day everyday.

Chamucks

haters,

Only allowed to use the metrics you want? Sounds fun.

Lackadaisical

Bag of Pucks,

I’m with you on most of that, except for Nuge being on the wing or 3c. I believe they’ll run Hall-Nuge-Drai until they inevitably trade one of Nuge or Drai, assuming unicorn lines aren’t flying.

Good post.

Bag of Pucks

It is severely framing the issue imo to refer to a generational player and a 3ov pick, who have both played extremely well in a limited sample size, as the ’18 year old and 20 year old. McDavid and Drai are the future and the future is now despite attempts to frame it otherwise. Who was the vet C that sheltered Crosby and Malkin? Does anyone remember and if they do, do you remember how briefly the shelter lasted? Same for Kane and Toews. The cream rises to the top – fast.

It’s about contract but it’s also about asset value and upside. RNH will be the 3C on this club, or a winger, sooner rather than later. Seth Jones projects as a franchise 1D. The Oil win the trade hands down on asset value and filling organizational need.

Many on this board underrate the impact of a true franchise D. No player other than the goalie impacts the game more.

Protagonist

haters:
Woodguy,

The fact is your using point production to compare players.
Try watching Johanson and Rnh through non oiler colored glasses and tell me again how similar in skill and impact they are.

Don’t we sort of pay them the dollars to get the points by putting the puck in the net? And flashy and noticeable isn’t exactly a good indicator of future success. Omark and Schremp had all the skill and flash in the world but at the end of the day, neither are even regular NHLers. You’re much better making relative, stats based comparisons if you want to get anywhere here.

Extend Russell

Woodguy,

The fact is your using point production to compare players.
Try watching Johanson and Rnh through non oiler colored glasses and tell me again how similar in skill and impact they are.

Protagonist

I don’t care about opinions.

I care about facts.

You’re also picking a frame of reference that flatters RNH versus Ryan Johansen. Year over year, another story emerges:

RYJO 2011: 21 PTS / 67 GPs / 0.313 PPG
RYJO 2012: 12 PTS / 40 GPs / 0.3 PPG
RYJO 2013: 63 PTS / 82 GPs / 0.768 PPG
RYJO 2014: 71 PTS / 82 GPs / 0.865 PPG
RYJO 2015: 26 PTS / 38 GPs / 0.684 PPG

RNH 2011: 52 PTS / 62 GP / 0.838 PPG
RNH 2012: 24 PTS / 40 GP / 0.6 PPG
RNH 2013: 56 PTS / 80 GP / 0.7 PPG
RNH 2014: 56 PTS / 76 GP / 0.736 PPG
RNH 2015: 28 PTS / 40 GP / 0.7 PPG

To me, those number seem to indicate improvement year over year with Ryan Johansen, and stagnation with RNH. Both had down years in the lockout, so I don’t think we can count those effectively. LT loves to talk about growth year over year when it comes to players, and to me, it’s just as important moving forwards in their NHL careers. And by that metric, Ryan Johansen has at least improved, while RNH can either be argued to be running in place or a bit behind his ridiculous rookie season.

Now there are external factors at play here, with the PP offense drying up to a significant degree for the Oilers in the past few years, as well as the relative positioning of CLB and EDM (one having made the playoffs during these two timespans) so I’m not entirely certain that these metrics are fair to either player. But I’m pretty confidant that we know what we have in RNH: a player that will get you above 0.66 PPG reliably, and can push 0.8 PPG or higher when the team is exceptionally good on the powerplay. History seems to indicate this to some degree, so I’m pretty confident saying it.

With Ryjo, the year over year improvement at least gives a glimmer of hope that you’ll get one of those 0.8 PPG or higher players on the regular, and hope at something even better. There is history of improvement so we might see more.

One thing I will agree on, is that at this exact moment in time, both players look VERY similar to me. And an RNH that is signed (for much cheaper than Ryjo will be) and already believing in the coach, the process, and his fellow players is extremely important to me, and I value that a lot more than I do Ryjo.

I probably woudn’t trade for the other straight up, given all the other factors in play. If both were identical in terms of contract, temperament, loyalty, and familiarity with couches/players on the Oilers … I’d probably swap RNH for Ryjo for the potential for something more.

OilersFuture

Woodguy: About the same.

Same as Bogosian and Schenn too.

I think that Jones is well ahead of Schenn & Bogosian at this point in time as an NHL defenseman. This is a gamble by the Jackets but I think it’s a fair deal by both sides.

From 2007 – 2011 draft I looked at NHL defenseman that were drafted in the top 7 and played in their first year or second year after the draft. Here is their progression.
CF% Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Drew Doughty 50 52.5 54.3
Seth Jones 49.1 54.1 57.7
Adam Larsson 51 51.7 54.9
Oliver Ekman-Larsson 53.6 52.1 50.3
Tyler Myers 49 53.7 46.6
Victor Hedman 48.6 53.8 47.8
Luke Schenn 48 51.2 48.1
Zach Bogosian 48.3 48.2 47.2

CorsiRel Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Drew Doughty 0.1 4.8 6.7
Seth Jones 1.1 2.3 3.6
Victor Hedman 2.5 2.7 0.5
Oliver Ekman-Larsson 1.3 2.3 -1.6
Tyler Myers -3 5.2 -6.6
Zach Bogosian -0.1 -1.8 -6.7
Adam Larsson -0.8 -6.9 1
Luke Schenn -4.7 -4 -1.6

Doughty is on another level but, (Norris or no Norris) he’s the best defenseman in the NHL and I’m honestly not sure why he doesn’t get more love for the best player in the NHL.

PTS/G Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Drew Doughty 0.33 0.72 0.52
Tyler Myers 0.59 0.46 0.42
Oliver Ekman-Larsson 0.23 0.39 0.5
Victor Hedman 0.27 0.33 0.38
Zach Bogosian 0.4 0.28 0.24
Seth Jones 0.32 0.33 0.28
Luke Schenn 0.2 0.22 0.27
Adam Larsson 0.28 0.16 0.12

From a points perspective he is in the range of OEL, Hedman, Bogosian but I think he has enough clearance from Schenn.

TOI Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Drew Doughty 23:50 24:49 25:39
Tyler Myers 23:44 22:27 22:26
Luke Schenn 21:32 16:53 22:22
Oliver Ekman-Larsson 15:02 22:07 25:06
Victor Hedman 20:51 21:01 23:06
Zach Bogosian 18:06 21:25 22:24
Seth Jones 19:37 19:53 19:39
Adam Larsson 20:37 18:06 17:47

His offense has leveled off BUT his ice-time is the same as well. Outside of Larsson every defenseman played 15 – 30 % MORE than Jones. I’d anticipate his PTS/G should be in the .35 – .40 range if he wasn’t stuck behind Weber, Josi and Ellis.

I know CorsiRel isn’t the best measure of a defenseman but it’s just a quick pass. I think that at this stage Jones is more in the range with Hedman, Myers, OEL or with a low end of Larsson or perhaps Bogosian then Schenn.

Quinlan

Nilsson has to feel like he’s dropped a huge opportunity. I don’t know if that’s why he slammed his stick (maybe his foot was itchy and he didn’t feel like taking his skates off to get at it) but you have to think he’s a little disappointed right now.

Talbot, outside of a 3 minute segment, has been very good recently and the Oilers gave up more to get him. If this keeps going, a contract extension is likely on the way, and Nilsson’s chances decrease even more.

Brossoit is right beneath him, excelling in the minors.

There are so many things outside of Nilsson’s control right now which seem to be closing the window of opportunity he had to become a #1 in Edmonton.

I really like him though and hope that, if not with the Oilers, he catches on as a starter elsewhere.

Lackadaisical

Off topic: What a blatant troll. I’ve always found the “subtly” toxic and inflammatory method some use to frame their arguments beyond distasteful.

Keep it classy gents!

On topic: I’m happy Nuge is here, but for his psychology rather than stats. Sure, he’s a good guy who works hard, he’s young while being experienced, he’s got a high skill cap. These are the reasons we love him. He’s also got McDavid and Draisaitl in the same position on the same team.

How hard would you be pushing yourself to somehow further improve if you’re in that young man’s shoes?

I don’t know about you guys, but I’ve always ran faster when someone is actually chasing.

bendelson

LMHF#1: How reasonable. Don’t break character now!

Every once in a while, I let my guard down and something ‘reasonable’ slips out.
I’ll post more about Korpikoski – that should keep me firmly in my comfort zone.

Woodguy

Ca$h-McMoney!:
Woodguy,

RyJo reminds me of Ryan O’Reilly from a contract management perspective.It was clear from the get go with O’Reilly that he felt he should be paid in full – there was never any chance he’d be accepting a penny less than full market value for his services, and in a market like this that means waiting for someone to overpay.

RyJo is going to command $8 million/year in 2 years.Someone will pay it.If Nashville refuses he will take a 1 year deal then go UFA.

RNH at $6million > than RyJo at 8.

There’s that too.

RNH is cost certain for the next 5 years at $6MM.

He is probably close to value today and when (if? haha) the cap goes up that value only increases.