DID YOU SEE THAT?

After the game last night, Todd McLellan said “I think that’s an indication that we still have a long way to go as a team” and that is true but only half of it. As much as this team fell victim to self inflicted wounds last night, the bigger matter is this: The defense isn’t good enough.

BELL BOTTOM BLUES, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
  • Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
  • Oilers in December 2014: 2-8-4
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1
  • Oilers in January 2015: 5-7-1
  • Oilers in January 2016: 2-1-0
  • Oilers after 42 in 2014-15: 10-23-9, 29 points (-46 GD)
  • Oilers after 42 in 2015-16: 17-22-3, 37 points (-21 GD)

The great baseball manager Casey Stengel used to say there are 50 games a season you are going to win no matter what, and 50 you will lose no matter what. Stuff happens, and you have to accept that they do. It is what you do in the other 50 that makes you a winner. Opportunity missed.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

oilers blue nov 30

  • Nurse—Schultz had a good night by the possession totals, and I thought Schultz showed some really good things in the first two periods. When the Lightning turned it on in the third period, it wasn’t close. Nurse and Schultz should be playing far less than the 19 minutes shown above, but that is the state of affairs with Oscar Klefbom injured. Nurse continues to impress with his physical strength, while also showing that he is young and learning on the job.
  • This is three games in a row that Schultz has shown some things, this time a goal. I wrote about showcasing him for trade here, and do believe we are seeing it now.
  • Hunt—Gryba played the lesser and kept things as controlled as possible, McLellan giving them butter-soft parade. When a team sends a pairing like this over the boards, I imagine they are hoping for nothing bad to happen. The problem? Good teams use those 12 minutes to push and push hard. We didn’t see any of that tonight.
  • Sekera—Davidson hung in there pretty damned well for a time, despite the dash two each picked up last night. A funky little wrinkle not mentioned in the graph above? This pairing not only faced Stamkos, but the very effective Hedman—Stralman pairing. Did pretty well too (11-8 against Hedman) but if you have this pairing and one including (say) Klefbom—veteran D? Likely a better result. I did think Sekera’s pinch on the second goal, and his soft coverage on the first goal (no one got out there, but could have) did impact the final result.
  • I can’t really blame Cam Talbot. He looked calm in net and I do not think any of the GA were on him. Friendly fire isn’t something you train for, not at all. I also have a hard time pinning it on a defense that was, for 40 minutes, playing as well as they could by my eye. They played two terrific periods against a superior team, before things caved in the final 20. You can blame them for going into a shell, but that can also be filed under lessons learned and the other guy deciding to hell with this noise, we are going to do something. Shiza happens, as the kids say.

CENTER, LAST NIGHT

oil c nov 30

  • Leon Draisaitl and his line pushed the river effectively, but the timing was off and the damned puck wouldn’t settle. The Hedman stop was diabolical.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins picked up an assist on the power play, and played well against the Johnson (7-7) and Filppula (7-4) lines.
  • Mark Letestu and his crew had a tough time with that blasted Callahan trio, and Jon Cooper changed things up a little too (Letestu was 3-6 against Stamkos, who was in and on an a few sorties with different lines).
  • Anton Lander had a nice start to the game, but sent a horrible pass into the middle on a sortie. He didn’t see the ice after about the 45-minute mark of the game. I think McLellan should rely on his 4line more and if he doesn’t trust these guys, maybe find three forwards he does trust and play them.

WINGERS, LAST NIGHT

oilers f nov 30

  • Pakarinein—Klinkhammer didn’t play much in the third either —in fact, when Klinkhammer came off the ice at 15:29 of the second period, that was all she wrote.
  • Hall—Purcell owned possession and along with Leon drove the bus like Otto blotto, but couldn’t cash and of course No. 4 had the difficult own goal. I will credit him for hauling ass and will tell you that betting on a guy who scores an own goal like that —will all the hard work—is betting on the right guy. Teddy Purcell is playing like a man who wants a contract, I would give it to him. I am seeing him so good it is getting a little crazy. He had a breakaway but was getting caught, so he positioned himself so that, despite getting caught, he could hold off the check long enough to get off a good shot attempt. And he did! I don’t think there is a man on this team who knows his own game better, or gets more from it. If you watch that play again, no doubt in my mind Purcell was planning and then executing a deft play while on a breakaway.
  • Pouliot—Eberle seem to be getting it all together, at least to my eye. Eberle was flying in the first, Pouliot scored, not bad. I don’t think they showed terribly in the third either, to be honest. Pouliot seems to be returning to the range of things he did in the past, small little plays and intelligent passing. That helps this line enormously.
  • Korpikoski—Hendricks were part of the Letestu line, and they had a tough time—to be expected based on their role as the checking unit. Difficult to get things going, I don’t for a minute think they were responsible for the loss. They did their jobs, as veterans do.

I thought this was pretty funny, but the truth is I am not that upset about last night. Edmonton is 2-1-0 in January and should be able to go 6-6-1 (or so) for the month. They don’t play after January 23, so get your fill in the next two weeks.

OSCAR AND DARNELL

Oscar Klefbom is about the same age now as Kevin Lowe and Charlie Huddy were in 1981-82, when they were just starting out. For a guy like Lowe, consistency arrived in the seasons between 1979 and 1981. In his rookie season, Lowe was very close to being sent to the minors, but Glen Sather saw enough in him to have him stay:

  • Sather: “If a guy is making the same mistakes over and over again, you’ve got to be concerned. But if he’s learning then you’ve got to be patient.”

Darnell Nurse is in that spot right now, Oscar Klefbom spent most of his 20-year-old season in the AHL. Nurse does things every night to impress, but is also clearly learning on the job and trying to figure out best spots to ramble. I think Edmonton has him in a better spot now, playing less difficult opponents, although the TOI seems way too much—although his confidence does not appear to be fading, credit the young man there.

Back when Nurse played alongside Sekera, I mentioned many times that getting Nurse easier minutes would be vital and we have seen it. I also mentioned that his replacement would probably see a downward trend and we are seeing both.

  • Nurse before/after the shuffle: 43.79/44.76 (Source)
  • Davidson before/after the shuffle: 53.03/51.47 (Source)
  • Sekera before/after the shuffle: 46.07/45.49 (Source)

I give Davidson (and Sekera) credit, the erosion continues but they are working like buggers to keep this thing aloft until Klefbom returns. I have read here and there about solutions, but the bottom line here is that Klefbom needs to get back, and they still don’t have enough defense to weather storms in the NHL.

I also see many blaming Peter Chiarelli, but I would suggest Todd McLellan is also being a little stubborn here. Mark Fayne remains available, I would play him with Sekera.

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190 Responses to "DID YOU SEE THAT?"

  1. theres oil in virginia says:

    Are we sure Fayne still has both of his legs? I’m having trouble seeing why else he wouldn’t be in the lineup. Mysterious.

  2. sliderule says:

    The ice tilted in the third period and oilers couldn’t respond.

    When you play most of the game in your own end breakdowns will occur.

    I thought generally the defence including the forwards covered pretty well considering the pressure from Bolts.

    The oil couldn’t get out of D zone by coming out wall as our wingers kept losing all the battles.

    T Mac has to find different breakouts as the wall has become a turnover area.

  3. hunter1909 says:

    Nurse shouldn’t be playing in the NHL this year.

    It can’t be doing his development any favors, playing on a trainwreck defence.

    Larry Robinson played 1.5 seasons in the AHL and it didn’t seem to do him any harm.

    Luke Schenn played for the Leafs and had a good rookie season, followed by becoming a bust after the management told him to show up for camp weighing 20 more pounds or some such story.

  4. Really? says:

    As countless posters have already stated, the Oilers need to improve their D corps. The return of Klefbom will certainly help but it won’t be nearly enough. This does not mean I support going whale hunting. I don’t. I am comfortable with defense by committee.

    The issue is that until we get a solid D corps, none of our incredibly talented forwards can even come close to achieving their full potential. They need to be receiving the puck in advantageous positions and on a regular basis. I watched the Flames the other night and, because of their high quality D man passing, their forwards were able to transition quickly and easily to the attack time after time. This simply does not happen with the Oilers.

    If the Oilers could put together an NHL quality D corps, our forwards, as a group, could go super nova. Looking forward to the rest of this season.

  5. hunter1909 says:

    sliderule: T Mac has to find different breakouts as the wall has become a turnover area.

    Like more “Hail Mary” passes up the middle of the ice?

    Oilers defence can’t control the puck to save their lives, and everyone else in the NHL knows it, often just for laughs routinely sending in extra forechecking.

  6. hunter1909 says:

    Oilers are routinely pressured behind their own goal when possessing the puck. That’s the Oilers getting bullied, and it’s so freaking sad.

    Nearly 200 feet away from the other goal, that’s a lot of space.

    No wonder they lose.

  7. 4th_Line_Plug says:

    hunter1909,

    It’s not all on the D. Guys like Eberle lose wall battles and have the puck stay in zone. If the opposing D man is going to beat you to the boards blow the zone and get one off the glass, they’ll stop pinching down on you once you have burned them for a few 2-on-1’s.

    Nurse skates the puck out of trouble like no Oiler has been able to for 10 years, it’s beautiful. Davidson must have glycol in his veins because he never freezes up or panics with the puck. Sekera is starting to make some good plays, but he looks frustrated with the forwards positioning. Gryba handles the puck like that squirrel off Ice Age handles his acorn.

    This trade for a right handed vet needs to happen!

    Klefbom-Sekera
    Davidson-Hamonic
    Nurse-Fayne

    That hockey game last night is won easily with those pairs getting pucks moving north.

  8. Woogie63 says:

    We could be the most improved team in the league on Februaty 2, with out even making a trade…

    McDavid into the line up Lander out
    Yakupov into the line up Pakarinen out
    Klefbom into the line up Hunt out
    Reinhart into the line up Gryba out

  9. sliderule says:

    hunter1909,

    Well the center of ice is an easier breakout if you have the skill.

    If you move it up the wall to small forwards like Eberle it’s a turnover might as well pass it to Bolts

    Hail Mary passes give you a chance to get the puck back in face off in own zone rather than fishing it out of own net.

  10. 4th_Line_Plug says:

    “You have to have the ability, the willingness, and the courage to breakout through the middle.” – Mike Johnston at the 2013 hockey coaches conference

  11. hags9k says:

    How much more time will Klefbom miss? The season is getting away from us here pretty quickly.

  12. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    LT and I have agreed to disagree when it comes to Nurse.

    Since Penticton, when Nurse was dominant and the best player in the tournament, we agreed he was one of the 6 best D on the team.

    LT thus suggested he should be on the big club, especially when the team was struggling early. I didn’t think the Oilers would call him up and leave him up for this long. I was wrong.

    I have maintained the best thing for Nurse is not the best thing for the Oilers this season. The best thing for Nurse, in my opinion, is to be playing 27 minutes a night in Bakersfield.

    In LT’s view, it’s playing sheltered minutes on the 3rd pairing with a good, veteran partner. And I am okay with that view, too, although I prefer mine. Neither of us is happy with his usage at the moment where he is way too high in the order. Typical Oiler program to throw a young player in the deep end and watch him nearly drown (just see Leon D last year). Enough is enough. Send him down or bump him way down the order. Confidence may not outwardly be an issue but this method isn’t working.

    Part of the problem is that just as we thought, the vets on the blue on this team haven’t been good enough. We knew that this summer. That’s why 90+ points seemed way too optimistic to me. Nikitin, Ference, Gryba no surprise. Fayne? Disappointing. He has lost a step this year though. Not sure what’s going on there to be honest. And McLellan doesn’t trust him, so that’s a problem. I was hoping for a lot more from Schultz this year and I have been very wrong on that.

    Enough with this insanity, though. Shelter Nurse as best you can or send him down and let him play all situations for 27 minutes a night. Groom him for a full season next year. And add help up top: eg, Hamonic, Shattenkirk, Burns, Byfuglien, whomever.

  13. russ99 says:

    The defensive corps is lacking, but please. All three goals were due to a forward not getting back quick enough or not picking up their man. Do we really expect perfection from our defensemen in the D-zone? Hockey just isn’t like that.

    Our D played a pretty good game but what happened in the third is the Bolts committed more men on the rush and got mismatches, and our forwards suck in the d-zone unless they’re on the wall. And even there there’s some players lacking.

    As much as we need another defensemen, we need forwards that can play a two way game. If you insist on unicorns on three lines, then that fourth line has to be stout defensively against the Stamkoses of the league, or these things will happen.

  14. Mr DeBakey says:

    Before the Eberle train really gets rolling down the mainline:

    Jakub Voracek — 143
    Phil Kessel — 141
    Corey Perry — 137
    Patrick Kane — 133
    Blake Wheeler — 130
    Jordan Eberle — 128
    Martin St. Louis — 121
    Marian Hossa — 121
    Kyle Okposo — 120
    Jarome Iginla — 120

    Points, Right wingers, Two Seasons [Not this one]

  15. ashley says:

    Those Hail Mary passes are not the D’s fault. They have 2 options as they move up the ice into pressure. Try to skate it up themselves which hasn’t worked since Bobby Orr, or pass it to someone. Hall and Eberle are at the red line the minute they get the sense there might be a turnover. Then if the D skate to the blueline, they are at the O blueline. Too far. Drai did it a couple of times last night too. Korpse and Letestu same thing.

    The key to breaking out is short passes. Surprisingly short. 6-12 footers from someone along the boards to someone skating beside and then the center skating in the middle. Those wingers have to stay and support the puck for a coordinated breakout. Even the blueline is too far up when possession is not yet certain. Deeper. At the circles or lower then they can be there to help move the puck out without turning it over.

    Good teams do this well. In fact, TB did a very nice job of breaking out last night.

  16. Woodguy says:

    t I would suggest Todd McLellan is also being a little stubborn here. Mark Fayne remains available, I would play him with Sekera.

    Agreed.

    Like you mentioned Gryba and Hunt got very few minutes and those were carefully controlled as well. Means the rest of your D is probably a bit overworked.

    Davidson is trying hard but he’s not good on his offside and was at his best last night when he skated the puck a bit so he could make a comfortable forehand pass instead of the backhand his position is forcing on him.

    Sekera-Fayne
    Davidson-Jultz
    Nurse-Gryba

    You still need to shelter that 3rd pair a bit, but not nearly like Gryba-Hunt

    Sekera’s 3 most common D pair mates:

    Nurse 357min
    Fayne 188 min
    Davidson 57 min

    None of these sample are big enough to be used for prediction, but its what has happened.

    Sekera’s Corsi and Goal #’s with each:

    CF/60
    Nurse 49.85
    Fayne 55.85
    Davidson 51.70

    CA/60
    Nurse 60.79
    Fayne 59.68
    Davidson 62.25

    CF%
    Nurse 43.1%
    Fayne 48.3%
    Davidson 45.4%

    GF/60
    Nurse 1.68
    Fayne 2.55
    Davidson 1.06

    GA/60
    Nurse 3.02
    Fayne 2.87
    Davidson 3.17

    GF%
    Nurse 35.7%
    Fayne 47.1%
    Davidson 25%

    The number suggest that McLellan is being more than stubborn and that its harming the team.

    I’d really like to hear his reasoning why (not that he’d give you all the good in a public forum like an avail)

  17. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy,

    I agree with you, Woodguy. However, given Fayne’s low SCA, I wonder if that’s the metric that McLellan looks at. That might explain the difference. I’m not sure how to get WOWY scoring chances. Perhaps G Money can do it with the danger fenwick as a proxy?

  18. frjohnk says:

    Teams and points in the Pacific ( Games Played in brackets)

    LOS ANGELOS….54(40)
    ARIZONA…………44(40)
    ANAHEIM…………41(40)
    VANCOUVER……41(41)
    CALGARY………..40(40)
    SAN JOSE……….38(38)
    EDMONTON…….37(42)

    This is how the teams in the Pacific are projecting in points over 82 games

    LOS ANGELES….111
    ARIZONA……………90
    ANAHEIM…………..84
    VANCOUVER…….82
    CALGARY………….82
    SAN JOSE…………82
    EDMONTON………72

    I dont think Arizona keeps up that pace, but Anaheim has flicked on the switch. Anaheim probably takes 2nd in the conference with just over 90 points. 3rd place is up for grabs and if a team hits 85, they might take it. Oilers would have to average 1.17 points per game for the rest of the year. Something like 22-14-4 in the last 40 games. That does not sound to crazy but to put that in perspective, 10 teams so far have averaged that or better. In the first half the Oilers average 0.88 points per game.

  19. Woodguy says:

    PACIFIC STANDINGS VIA GAMES (3RD PLACE ALWAYS=0, TIES BROKEN USING ROW)

    LAK +13
    ARI +3
    ANA 0
    ———————–
    CGY-1
    SJS -1
    VAN -1
    EDM -6

    Very close to being able to stick a fork in the season unless a big winning streak happens and they’ve pretty much pissed away this long home stand.

    One 6 game and one 5 game home stands left.

  20. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk:
    Teams and points in the Pacific ( Games Played in brackets)

    LOS ANGELOS….54(40)ARIZONA…………44(40)ANAHEIM…………41(40)VANCOUVER……41(41)CALGARY………..40(40)SAN JOSE……….38(38)EDMONTON…….37(42)

    This is how the teams in the Pacific are projectingin points over 82 games

    LOS ANGELES….111 ARIZONA……………90 ANAHEIM…………..84 VANCOUVER…….82 CALGARY………….82 SAN JOSE…………82 EDMONTON………72

    I dont think Arizona keeps up that pace, but Anaheim has flicked on the switch.Anaheim probably takes 2nd in the conference with just over 90 points.3rd place is up for grabs and if a team hits 85, they might take it.Oilers would have to average 1.17 points per game for the rest of the year. Something like 22-14-4 in the last 40 games. That does not sound to crazy but to put that in perspective, 10 teams so far have averaged that or better. In the first half the Oilers average 0.88 points per game.

    GET OFF MY LAWN!!!

  21. wheatnoil says:

    russ99:
    The defensive corps is lacking, but please. All three goals were due to a forward not getting back quick enough or not picking up their man. Do we really expect perfection from our defensemen in the D-zone? Hockey just isn’t like that.

    In fairness, on Hall’s goal, he busted ass, had his man covering for a Sekera pinch, got his stick on the puck to deflect the pass and got unlucky. I wouldn’t blame that goal on the forwards.

  22. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: GET OFF MY LAWN!!!

    Too late.

    I’m now in your liquor cabinet.

  23. Quinlan says:

    I thought Talbot had a reasonable take on the game last night.

    Every goal against wasn’t just deflected in by an Oiler.

    It was deflected in by an Oiler who was in the right position, making the right defensive decision, doing his job.

    Frustrating night for them. Hopefully they don’t let it linger.

  24. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy:

    Very close to being able to stick a fork in the season unless a big winning streak happens and they’ve pretty much pissed away this long home stand.

    0-3-2 in regulation with a couple of Bettman points in gimmick time. This club isn’t capable of actually Beating anybody. One regulation win since Klefbom went down 12 games ago, just 4 in 29 since McDavid went out.

  25. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy,

    Woodguy,

    Think 84 is too low. #3 will be 89-90. Not going to happen for the Oilers. They’re already done. They may even get to 85. But in the Bettman era 4 points is a massive gap to make up.

    #1 LA in a walk
    #2 Anaheim at 91-93 is my guess
    #3 Arizona or Calgary at 89
    Hope Arizona does it.

  26. RexLibris says:

    sliderule: The ice tilted in the third period and oilers couldn’t respond.

    This isn’t actually true.

    Check the data at War on Ice. http://war-on-ice.com/game2.html?seasongcode=2015201620612

    Oilers kept with the Lightning throughout the game and even developing a possession lead up until the 1st TB goal, then they stayed with them neck and neck.

    TB put on pressure, as all teams will, but the Oilers recovered and mounted their own pressure against.

    The difference was that their defenseman blocked a shot on the goal line while two of ours deflected them in.

  27. Bruce McCurdy says:

    In other news I am really learning to hate the Blues. They always beat the Oilers for fun but they have become very adept at pissing away points to other Pacific teams. Last night in the most recent example they coughed a 3-1 lead vs the Ducks & lost in the shootout. Thanks for nothing.

  28. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: Too late.

    I’m now in your liquor cabinet.

    Pour me one while you’re in there please.

  29. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: 0-3-2 in regulation with a couple of Bettman points in gimmick time. This club isn’t capable of actually Beating anybody. One regulation win since Klefbom went down 12 games ago, just 4 in 29 since McDavid went out.

    Truth hurts.

  30. GB&Q says:

    Bob McKenzie tweets:

    DET puts Jakub Kindl on waivers.

  31. frjohnk says:

     

    Woodguy:
    PACIFIC STANDINGS VIA GAMES (3RD PLACE ALWAYS=0, TIES BROKEN USING ROW)

    LAK+13
    ARI +3
    ANA 0
    ———————–
    CGY-1
    SJS -1
    VAN -1
    EDM -6

    Very close to being able to stick a fork in the season unless a big winning streak happens and they’ve pretty much pissed away this long home stand.

    One 6 game and one 5 game home stands left.

    Another way to look at that. This is point per game average at 42 games.

    ARIZONA 46
    ANAHEIM 43
    VANCOUVER 42
    CALGARY 42
    SAN JOSE 42
    EDMONTON 37

    That Pacific stand really hurt us.
    Actually, at 1-3-1 it was more of a faceplant.

  32. Quinlan says:

    Anyone else think a Vatanen for Drouin deal might be in the works? Just spitballing, but it fits IMO

    Edit: I see Eric Stephens thinks its a possibility too.

  33. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    If they trade us Shattenkirk for something reasonable do you change your tune? I would just like to see Hall outscore Tarasenko this year to put a stop to the:
    Seguin>Tarasenko>Johansen>Fowler>Hall talk I keep hearing everywhere with respect to the 2010 draft.

  34. Woodguy says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Woodguy,

    Woodguy,

    Think 84 is too low. #3 will be 89-90. Not going to happen for the Oilers. They’re already done. They may even get to 85. But in the Bettman era 4 points is a massive gap to make up.

    #1 LA in a walk
    #2 Anaheim at 91-93 is my guess
    #3 Arizona or Calgary at 89
    Hope Arizona does it.

    I think you meant to reply to Padre as I didn’t post any point numbers.

    6 games is huge.

    Oilers have to be wins better than ANA right now to have a shot in the final 40 games.

    Really long odds on that.

    Agreed that the number for 3rd place is *probably* 88 or so.

  35. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    frjohnk,

    Yup. They needed to go 3-2 there at home and completely shat the bed.

  36. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy,

    Yes. I hit reply on padre’s reply to you and it somehow replied to you. My mistake.

  37. Lowetide says:

    GB&Q:
    Bob McKenzie tweets:

    DET puts Jakub Kindl on waivers.

    Huh. Defensemen are dropping like flies.

  38. Ryan says:

    Why play Hunt, at all? He’s not an NHL defenseman nor tradeable asset. The Oilers are not going to make the playoffs, so any added value he provides on the PP does not matter. Why not use his at bats and sheltered minutes for Reinhart?

  39. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: I think you meant to reply to Padre as I didn’t post any point numbers.

    6 games is huge.

    Oilers have to be wins better than ANA right now to have a shot in the final 40 games.

    Really long odds on that.

    Agreed that the number for 3rd place is *probably* 88 or so.

    88 points is 1.24 points per game average.

      WASHINGTON
      DALLAS
      CHICAGO
      LOS ANGELES
      FLORIDA

    are the teams that have done that so far this year.

    Get the fork out then.

  40. Woodguy says:

    Quinlan:
    Anyone else think a Vatanen for Drouin deal might be in the works? Just spitballing, but it fits IMO

    That would fit as its reported that Yz wants a RHD.

    TBY has a lot of D under contract for a long time.

    I’m not sure that Vatanen will settle for a value contract.

  41. Really? says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    And therein lies the true tale. This indicates just how big the task is that Chiarelli has to address. By eye we look better but by this metric we are clearly a bottom level team.

    At this point we must resist the urge to kid ourselves into believing that we are better than we actually are.

  42. Bruce McCurdy says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    If they trade us Shattenkirk for something reasonable do you change your tune? I would just like to see Hall outscore Tarasenko this year to put a stop to the:
    Seguin>Tarasenko>Johansen>Fowler>Hall talk I keep hearing everywhere with respect to the 2010 draft.

    It wouldnt put a stop to anything. Hall could score 150 points & win the scoring title &’still get zero respect from the fans, media & referees.

    TSN showed a graphic the other night after the Johansen trade showing top scorers from the 2010 draft, showing Seguin with 28 more points than Hall in 56 more games & were falling all over themselves raving about how Seguin was the One True Star of that draft or some similar bullshit.

  43. Quinlan says:

    GB&Q:
    Bob McKenzie tweets:

    DET puts Jakub Kindl on waivers.

    If you’ve got Brad Hunt on your NHL roster, I think you need to have time for Kindl.

    He got a significant zone start push. Skilled player. 28 yrs old though, so you wonder if he’s hit his ceiling.

    Solid history of + CF% and CF% Rel.

  44. AZOIL says:

    I’ve been gone on a cruise for a week with no internet. What did I miss? jones trade, no Mcdavid back yet for my AZ game on the 12th?

  45. square_wheels says:

    I sure hope we don’t spend anytime trying to convince ourselves that Kindl is worth picking up.

    He’s been a low pt producing and inconsistent depth D forever, we’ve got enough 5-8 D.

    We must aim higher.

  46. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    NYC prediction update:
    First 25 games guess: 9-16 (18 points)
    Actual first 25 games: 8-15-2 (18 points)

    Second 25 games guess: 12-13 (24 points)
    Actual second 25 games so far: 9-7-1 (19 points in 17 games).
    Record needed in next 8 games to win side bet with the Other John : 3-5.

    Final 32 games guess: 43 points. That equates to 20-9-3. Yikes. Hope they get to at least 14-11 in this 2nd 25 game set to make the finish a little more realistic.

    There are holes. There are problems. The playoffs are out of reach in the Bettman era. But team is still on an okay pace in the 2nd 25 game set and I still see a good run when McDavid gets back.

  47. Quinlan says:

    Ryan:
    Why play Hunt, at all?He’s not an NHL defenseman nor tradeable asset.The Oilers are not going to make the playoffs, so any added value he provides on the PP does not matter.Why not use his at bats and sheltered minutes for Reinhart?

    I know what you’re saying but that’s not how coaches operate nor how managers do when their team is (fading but) still in it.

    McLellan has been pushing the “Don’t fold your hand” mentality – he has to keep pushing for wins if there’s to be any mental growth from the players. There will always be a reason to think you’re not going to get the job done. Things get hard, but you need to push through.

    If you don’t, you consign yourself to forever being a loser.

  48. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    AZOIL:
    I’ve been gone on a cruise for a week with no internet. What did I miss? jones trade, no Mcdavid back yet for my AZ game on the 12th?

    I’m going, too. Sadly no McDavid. Tickets are going for $11!

  49. AZOIL says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Son of a gun! My boys are going to be bummed! Ah well, we need a win in AZ though!

  50. Quinlan says:

    Not really sure how Kindl would work RE: the cap. Anyone know? 2.4 million is a lot.

    Gotta make someone swallow, picking that up.

  51. GB&Q says:

    square_wheels,

    we even have a couple of 9-12 D. :/

  52. Quinlan says:

    square_wheels:
    I sure hope we don’t spend anytime trying to convince ourselves that Kindl is worth picking up.

    He’s been a low pt producing and inconsistent depth D forever, we’ve got enough 5-8 D.

    We must aim higher.

    There is that.

  53. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    See here is where I get a little confused.

    By eye (and by numbers Thanks Rex) there is absolutely no reason to pin that game on the D-corps or more specifically on Nurse last night,

    I thought the Oilers were in complete control of that game until the Hall own goal (which sucked the entire life out of the building). Did TBY have possession ya maybe but go back and watch the sorties and I thought the zone defense by the Oilers was excellent last night. Sticks in the right spots, shoulder checking constantly and forcing everything to the outside. TB had possession but chances were limited and the top two lines played like the top two lines (and the fancy stats agree).

    I would take a very hard look at each and every shift Sekera played in that 3rd period last night. I found my goat on the brutal pinch that led to the second goal but the veteran defender had a 20 minutes to forget. A couple of blown tires on a PP, broken stick in the final 30 seconds, a few MacT of the glass and out breakout passes that led to icings etc etc.

    I agree Nurse was playing high up in the order a few games back but he and Schultz looked good last night. Schultz still has a tendency to wait to long and either wrap it around or fire it back to his partner but that is strictly a confidence thing (and you could tell during his 1st Int interview that has been a big problem this year).

  54. square_wheels says:

    Quinlan,

    Watching the impact Hedman has on the ice…..my sights are way higher right now.

    Hedman is a UFA after next year…..making 4M this season…….

    If there is anyway we can fleece Hamonic out of Snow and then sign Hedman or Burns…..

  55. Quinlan says:

    square_wheels:
    Quinlan,

    Watching the impact Hedman has on the ice…..my sights are way higher right now.

    Hedmanis a UFA after next year…..making 4M this season…….

    If there is anyway we can fleece Hamonic out of Snow and then sign Hedman or Burns…..

    Guy is insane. He’s having a “bad year” too.

    Jumps up in the play, makes things happen.

    I actually thought the Oilers played him well, put him on his heels a couple of times.

    He’s probably more valuable to the Bolts than Stamkos is and I think they know it. If you pay Stamkos $10M, what are you paying Hedman? Might be part of their hesitance to sign a deal.

  56. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    In other news I am really learning to hate the Blues. They always beat the Oilers for fun but they have become very adept at pissing away points to other Pacific teams. Last night in the most recent example they coughed a 3-1 lead vs the Ducks & lost in the shootout. Thanks for nothing.

    Well, in last night’s game, they lost Stastny, Bouwmeester and their starting goaler, so at least they are adding degrees of difficulty!

  57. Quinlan says:

    square_wheels,

    Kudos to Tampa though, for getting him on that contract. $4M!!!

  58. Pouzar says:

    Confirmed. I am behind the Oilers bench when they visit Winterpeg. Looks like I’ll be hauling the Hemsky Jersey outta the closet one more time.

  59. Pouzar says:

    Ivan Provorov Age: 18 years 11 months… 31gp 9g 23a 32p Drafted #7 overall 2015

    Ethan Bear Age: 18 years 7 months… 38g 12g 26a 38p Drafted #124 overall 2015

    Caleb Jones Age: 18 years 7 months… 39gp 7g 25a 32p Drafted #117 overall 2015

    Just sayin….

  60. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Well, in last night’s game, they lost Stastny, Bouwmeester and their starting goaler, so at least they are adding degrees of difficulty!

    Jen LC tweeted last night that the Hockey Gods were exacting a pound of flesh from the Blues with their injuries last night.

    My response was that I’m an Oilers fan and the Blues can damned well get in line.

  61. rickithebear says:

    Bruce McCurdy: 0-3-2 in regulation with a couple of Bettman points in gimmick time. This club isn’t capable of actually Beating anybody. One regulation win since Klefbom went down 12 games ago, just 4 in 29 since McDavid went out.

    Klefbom one of 8 d to face 1st line comp get 1st pair results at even an pk.
    No shit!
    when you lose one of the 5 best def d in the game by facts not opinion!
    It affects results!

    Edit
    No sit was meant as bang on bruce

  62. fifthcartel says:

    Pouzar,

    It’s been really fun to follow how those two are progressing, both look like they’re having strong season and if I recall both are strong skaters too so seeing them put up offense in junior is really encouraging.

    Jones is leading Portland in points by defensemen and slightly ahead of Jack Dougherty (Nashville 2nd round pick in 2014) in points per game, but Dougherty is a year ahead of Jones.

    Bear is leading Seattle in points by defensemen and no one is even close except a 20 year 15 or so points back. Bear’s third on the team in points and outproducing Ryan Gropp (Rangers 2nd round pick last year, also a forward).

    Seeing them match Provorov on offense is pretty exciting. I’d be curious to see what the even strength/power play splits look like.

  63. Water Fire says:

    For me it’s a concern that the team may still ‘want’ to use players for reasons other than their ability to play hockey.

    The Oilers lose because there are too many puck optional players and too many one dimensional players. I agree the forwards are not doing a good enough job and are the real issue behind defensive and breakout issues. Certainly there are issues with the D, but it’s not the whole story.

    Edit: Maybe Crazy Coach and some of the other coaches can put their 2 cents in about those issues.

    The Oilers also still tend to force O zone plays that better teams don’t, they make plays to manage the puck and reduce risk. Purcell seems to regularly make an O zone play that turns over and is coming back hard and fast. Trying to be too cute.

    I agree Ted is a crafty player, but when the virtue of that is to cover the weaknesses and still allows for the puck management issues which should be long out of his game, again not worth it. A lot if not all players would thrive with Hall and Leon. The worst player on a line has to be there to help the others with the dirty work, not be the beneficiary of the skill. I really hope Chiarelli gets this sorted.

    I hope Snow will take a winger + for Hamonic. I hope they look for defense that are like Petry and thus undervalued and get rid of Gryba, Fayne and probably Schultz. 6 mobile guys that can pass, don’t make major mistakes regularly, and don’t avoid contact.

    I also have had my fill of players that don’t try to help in puck battles. I don’t expect all players to hit, but I do expect all players to learn how to win with what they have to use. Eberle was really weak again, it really bugs me about him.

    That level of dedication to the team needs to be bought with over 1 PPG for me. Otherwise it’s not worth it, and I think my position on this is backed up by 10 years of bad. If you can’t be bothered to fight for possession I can’t be bothered.

    Hall’s game is immature as well, but he is of course a much different player, I think he needs to grow up on the ice but he’s trying to, and he brings it every game. Nuge has been there for years, Leon doesn’t seem like the type comfortable with anything other than being the best he can so hopefully he’ll try to learn fast.

  64. Pouzar says:

    F^ck this.

    If those TB goals don’t go off our own legs and sticks we are saying “just wait till McDavid and Klef get back.”

    See you f^ckin whiners tonight.

    GO CONDORS!

  65. sliderule says:

    RexLibris

    Well Rex by my metric “the eyes” the ice tilted.

    I saw numerous times when we couldn’t move the puck out of our own end and while I don’t have a time in zone I would bet we spent more in our own zone.

    By the way that might be a good statistic for all the stats nerds to track.

  66. BONE207 says:

    Hi gang…I saw the Oilers turn the corner last night. (Not north mind you, more like east or west). Defensively in the right position for all the GA but more importantly, they outscored the other team. So it’s an uptick since instead of finding ways to lose, they now find ways to (help the other team) win.

  67. fifthcartel says:

    Ryan Rishaug ‏@TSNRyanRishaug 1m1 minute ago
    McLellan says McDavid will be back after All Star game.

    So he’ll only play ~40 games. Man, this season sucks.

  68. wheatnoil says:

    Pouzar:
    Ivan Provorov Age: 18 years 11 months… 31gp 9g 23a 32p Drafted #7 overall 2015

    Ethan Bear Age: 18 years 7 months… 38g 12g 26a 38p Drafted #124 overall 2015

    Caleb Jones Age: 18 years 7 months… 39gp 7g 25a 32p Drafted #117 overall 2015

    Just sayin….

    Bear shoots right too. Too bad Caleb didn’t play baseball first like his brother.

  69. Johnny Larue says:

    I was at the game last night and I thought Gryba played am excellent game broke up some major chances for Tampa. I don’t know why they are playing Hunt he was supposed to be the power play specialist but has not been effective. I think the team needs to hire a witch doctor to remove the curse that is on this team.

  70. wheatnoil says:

    fifthcartel:
    Ryan Rishaug ‏@TSNRyanRishaug1m1 minute ago
    McLellan says McDavid will be back after All Star game.

    So he’ll only play ~40 games. Man, this season sucks.

    What was that thing with Draisaitl? If he plays less than 41 games in a year it doesn’t count as an “accrued year” towards UFA status?

    Edit: Wait… I think that only counts if they were to send McDavid back to Junior, not if he’s on the IR.

  71. Professor Q says:

    fifthcartel:
    Pouzar,

    It’s been really fun to follow how those two are progressing, both look like they’re having strong season and if I recall both are strong skaters too so seeing them put up offense in junior is really encouraging.

    Jones is leading Portland in points by defensemen and slightly ahead of Jack Dougherty (Nashville 2nd round pick in 2014) in points per game, but Dougherty is a year ahead of Jones.

    Bear is leading Seattle in points by defensemen and no one is even close except a 20 year 15 or so points back. Bear’s third on the team in points and outproducing Ryan Gropp (Rangers 2nd round pick last year, also a forward).

    Seeing them match Provorov on offense is pretty exciting. I’d be curious to see what the even strength/power play splits look like.

    Are we Bullish on Bear?

  72. geowal says:

    fifthcartel:
    Ryan Rishaug ‏@TSNRyanRishaug1m1 minute ago
    McLellan says McDavid will be back after All Star game.

    So he’ll only play ~40 games. Man, this season sucks.

    Rishaug should ask for a scrap of info on Klefbom.

  73. stevezie says:

    Pouzar,

    Not that’s a good stat.

  74. GCW_69 says:

    hags9k:
    How much more time will Klefbom miss? The season is getting away from us here pretty quickly.

    This season was gone before it started. Even the ever optimistic LT described this season as burning a year of McDavid’s ELC before the season started and he was right. This is a 70-75 point team.

  75. geowal says:

    Well for those who worried about wasting a year of McDavids entry level deal, it appears to have wasted itself.

  76. Professor Q says:

    Which hey, is still fine.

    Get another high draft pick, get everyone healthy, have the prospects develop a bit more, and come out fighting next season…

  77. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    McLellan says Klefbom has been missed just as much as McDavid. Still no timetable for his return, probably at least until after AS break.

    From Jack Michaels.

    With the 1-3-1 Pacific homestand, last night’s gift game and these two injury updates on Klef and McDavid I think this is officially a stuck pig.
    Check out @EdmontonJack’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/EdmontonJack/status/685897963156054016?s=09

  78. Professor Q says:

    geowal:
    Well for those who worried about wasting a year of McDavids entry level deal, it appears to have wasted itself.

    So, not even if they send him back to Erie?

    (Meaning he can still come back next year and win the Calder…I’m also joking…)

  79. BAUCE says:

    Professor Q:
    Which hey, is still fine.

    Get another high draft pick, get everyone healthy, have the prospects develop a bit more, and come out fighting next season…

    Had this not been the refrain for the last five years I might be a little more excited.

  80. sliderule says:

    Professor Q,

    Rinse wash repeat,rinse wash repeat,rinse wash repeat.

    There are a few of us getting tired and older.

  81. geowal says:

    Professor Q,

    Well that would fit with how Drasaitl’s entry level first year was wasted…

  82. Professor Q says:

    BAUCE: Had this not been the refrain for the last five years I might be a little more excited.

    The ellipses probably wasn’t as indicative of my slightly veiled sarcasm as I should have made clear; although at this point there’s not much else to do without causing the same thing to be almost necessary.

    You trade offence for defence, and you open other holes and still have to deal with the injury losses and development time losses and most likely wind up out of the playoffs still.

    You trade that pick, and then that’s still waiting for next year, even if it somehow gets help on defence. Just without a new prospect.

    You can’t get a trade done, well, you have your pick to look forward to?

    As some say here and I agree, injuries are an explanation and reason, not an excuse.

    Although clearly there are other reasons as to why the Oilers are where they are.

  83. Professor Q says:

    geowal:
    Professor Q,

    Well that would fit with how Drasaitl’s entry level first year was wasted…

    Draisaitl wasn’t injured for an extensive amount of time, though.

  84. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    LT said last year to go out and take some pictures. I took him at his word. Wonder what he will tell us to do this year?

    1pm drinking memo?

  85. hags9k says:

    I think PC will have to seriously consider moving this year’s 1st for help on D. Maybe part of a package. If we draft a skilled W, that’s great we are lacking skilled prospects past the NHL. However if the D isn’t addressed we will end up having to move Eberle or similar for a D anyway, in a trade we likely don’t get good value on. And then we will be forcing another recently drafted kid into a position to drown.

    Cough up the 1st, preferrably with Schultz, and get a bonafide RH NHL D.

    Then get the chequebook ready in free agency and grab another bonafide NHL D.

    We have to climb out of the 2nd division, this is unbearable.

  86. speeds says:

    hags9k:
    Cough up the 1st, preferrably with Schultz, and get a bonafide RH NHL D.

    Then get the chequebook ready in free agency and grab another bonafide NHL D.

    We have to climb out of the 2nd division, this is unbearable.

    Problem is the pick is setting up to be too valuable to move for most/nearly all? of the D that will be available via trade.

    I get that everyone’s frustrated but making a bad trade won’t ease that.

  87. JDï™ says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker": 1pm drinking memo?

    And watch Mr. Warmth on Netflix.

  88. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    So safe to say Purcell and Schultz will be dumped before the deadline for sure along with guys like Gryba and Fayne hopefully maybe even Eberle. There’s a silver lining in all of this we may actually get to see some big trades made by Chia as we retool for next year. Top 5 prospects I would like us to realistically acquire on or before deadline:

    1. D Ryan Pulock (NYI)
    2. RW Brett Ritchie (Dal)
    3. G Eric Comrie (WPG)
    4. C Adam Tambellini (NYR)
    5. RW Michael McCarron (MTL)

    Four of the 5 are property of playoff teams who may want to make a push, Comrie is behind Hellebuyck on the pecking order so could be had.

  89. hags9k says:

    speeds,

    I understand that, but this is what we have been saying for years. At some point we have to decide to build the defense, no?

  90. theres oil in virginia says:

    Water Fire: I also have had my fill of players that don’t try to help in puck battles. I don’t expect all players to hit, but I do expect all players to learn how to win with what they have to use. Eberle was really weak again, it really bugs me about him.

    The problem that I have with this position is that you’re expecting all players to be good at all aspects of the game.

    Hendricks wins lots of puck battles, but almost never helps you on the score sheet. Eberle picked off a pass last night along the boards (in the off zone) and it led directly to a goal. That’s essentially winning a board battle.

    I agree with you that Eberle (and others) needs to be better along the board in the def zone, but remember that every player has strengths and weaknesses and they don’t overcome these weaknesses easily. Perhaps trying the same old breakout is the problem. He’s not suited to it and it needs adjustment, although he needs to continue to improve that too.

    I also liked the discussion above about breakouts and the role of the defense. This aspect of the game might be the Oilers biggest weakness.

  91. theres oil in virginia says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: So safe to say Purcell and Schultz will be dumped before the deadline for sure along with guys like Gryba and Fayne hopefully maybe even Eberle.

    “Dumped”? Come on.

  92. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    I get Arizona Coyotes ads here now.
    “We weren’t born into this. We chose this.”
    $11 seats say otherwise.

    Nonetheless, we all chose to support a team 10 years running with no playoffs.

    So there’s that.

  93. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    Anaheim is up to something on the goalie front.
    Gibson hurt
    Andersen
    Khudobin
    Tokarski

  94. fifthcartel says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Didn’t Gibson play last night?

  95. Professor Q says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    Anaheim is up to something on the goalie front.
    Gibson hurt
    Andersen
    Khudobin
    Tokarski

    Marinating and *tenderising?

  96. RexLibris says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: hopefully maybe even Eberle.

    Why would moving Eberle at the deadline be a good thing?

    You won’t be getting back a top pairing defender from a team heading into the playoffs and he is signed for quite a few more (likely productive) years.

    The expiring UFAs I get, and Schultz even, but Eberle makes no sense on that list.

  97. theres oil in virginia says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: “We weren’t born into this. Our city council chose this.”

    Fixed that for them.

  98. Adam Wu says:

    GCW_69: This season was gone before it started.Even the ever optimistic LT described this season as burning a year of McDavid’s ELC before the season started and he was right.This is a 70-75 point team.

    A 70-75 point season is a 8-13 point improvement over the prior season. That hardly counts as “gone before it started”. It’s simply a testament to how far back the team was trying to come from.

  99. geowal says:

    Professor Q: Draisaitl wasn’t injured for an extensive amount of time, though.

    No of course not, but he was sent down after 40 games after being on the roster (but healthy).
    Note: I recognize you are not being serious, nor am I. It would be an interesting parallel though.

  100. geowal says:

    So presumably, barring an absolutely stunning return, this means no Calder. It is just not meant to be.
    I guess this will take the edge off of some of the bonus cushion.
    This summer: rich 2 year contracts for everybody!

  101. geowal says:

    RexLibris: Why would moving Eberle at the deadline be a good thing?

    The object of hockey is not to outscore the other team, it is to “battle” along the boards.

  102. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    geowal:
    So presumably, barring an absolutely stunning return, this means no Calder. It is just not meant to be.
    I guess this will take the edge off of some of the bonus cushion.
    This summer: rich 2 year contracts for everybody!

    No Calder. It isn’t meant to be.
    I’d take the Calder curse over the Canucks’ Cup curse.

  103. Atc-Nate says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    Not sure I would pick up Comrie, I scored 4 on him playing against the 3 Comrie boys, didn’t seem that special to me. 😉

    (Yes, that’s my claim to fame … )

    Anyhow, I didn’t catch much of the game last night, just the last 2 GA and the first period. Hall busted his butt to get back on the tying goal, and he was behind. Excellent.

    The result wasn’t what we wanted but if we take off our tainted Oilers glasses, this is in fact a better team then that result. While there are some staggering facts out there (Bruce’s 4 regulation wins in 29 being one) I believe this IS an infinitely better, more disciplined team then last (9) year. They are winning games without their bestish d man, McDavid and Eberle started the season on the IR too.. Only really starting to roll in the last month.

    Chin up folks, better things are coming. Yes, we’ve burned a year of McD’s ELC… But that’s spilled milk at this point.

    In regards to playoffs, IF you put LA / Ana 1 & 2, we need to eek out what, 5 more wins then Arizona and Calgary? I think we can. But I have been labeled as an eternal optimist (maybe when I mentioned 8″ harhar)….

    Go get em.

  104. Woogie63 says:

    Bakersfield plays three games while the NHL is on All-Star break….

    Can an 18 year old go down for condition?

    Would Nurse and or Driasaitl benefit from 3 more games in the AHL?

  105. Water Fire says:

    theres oil in virginia: The problem that I have with this position is that you’re expecting all players to be good at all aspects of the game.

    Hendricks wins lots of puck battles, but almost never helps you on the score sheet.Eberle picked off a pass last night along the boards (in the off zone) and it led directly to a goal.That’s essentially winning a board battle.

    I agree with you that Eberle (and others) needs to be better along the board in the def zone, but remember that every player has strengths and weaknesses and they don’t overcome these weaknesses easily.Perhaps trying the same old breakout is the problem.He’s not suited to it and it needs adjustment, although he needs to continue to improve that too.

    I also liked the discussion above about breakouts and the role of the defense.This aspect of the game might be the Oilers biggest weakness.

    I agree not every player will be ‘as’ good in every game aspect. But making one nice high risk play and setting up a goal (the risk being picking off a pass is not as repeatedly successful as pinning the guy in his zone to begin with, and if the pass gets through has that player just given up an odd man rush?), and also losing the majority of your battles and contributing to the possession battle loss, may very likely be a net loss. I’m not going to try and suss that out with stats, but it’s my position until something proves it wrong.

    Eberle knows how to use his stick and is very agile. Nuge isn’t much stronger or bigger if at all. There is no comparison in their forechecking IMO.

    It’s an effort thing. All of the small guys need to use agility, quickness, a good stick and smarts to battle the bigger, and likely slower and less skilled opponent. Almost every, if not every player needs to be 50%+, like the good teams.

    I have no model for what a player looks like, other than good skating and getting the job done somehow in a way that lifts the team up a notch.

    I was reading about Nik Lidstrom today. 6’1″ 190 lbs, so not a big guy but the height gives reach. Apparently impossile to chip a puck past. Very few games missed which I heard him attribute to not hitting much. He had ONE season with a minus, of -2, and Detroit wasn’t great when he started.

    He was a .73 PPG player, .69 PPG playoffs. Over half his points were PP, and over half his assists were second assists. Highest goal total was 20. He didn’t have a big shot. He wasn’t rushing the puck up the ice and dangling blowing by guys with speed like Orr or Coffey and firing bombs on the PP like those two physically stronger players did. And he didn’t score more even points than PP like Bourque who was one of the few D that could drive EV offense.

    What I take from this is that he moved the puck the right way, was positionally smart, and managed the puck well. By doing simple smart things he got the puck back, made a good pass, supported the play and kept plays alive by knowing what to do with the puck.

    My point here is they don’t need a whale on D. The gords gave them talented young D and whales up front. The ‘stud D’ is like the mythical power forward – there are so few it’s a fool’s gambit to chase one. 6 good guys that can play the game at D, an average goalie, mature puck and game management will revolutionize the Oilers. And be affordable.

  106. Professor Q says:

    Woogie63:
    Bakersfield plays three games while the NHL is on All-Star break….

    Can an 18 year old go down for condition?

    Would Nurse and or Driasaitl benefit from 3 more games in the AHL?

    They just might, actually.

    Then Klefbom returns and Nurse can stay there.

  107. speeds says:

    hags9k:
    speeds,

    I understand that, but this is what we have been saying for years.At some point we have to decide to build the defense, no?

    The D needs improvement, no question, and it’s not like many haven’t been saying that for awhile, but that doesn’t mean moving the pick to improve it is the best way to go. I get what you’re saying, but is EDM markedly ahead if they’d dealt the picks that became Nurse, Draisaitl, or McDavid for a decent but subpar D return? Particularly in a context where they could have just made better trade/signing decisions on D to alleviate the issue over the past few seasons?

  108. Water Fire says:

    geowal: The object of hockey is not to outscore the other team, it is to “battle” along the boards.

    Eberle is -37 career. The object for each player is to outscore the opponent, especially the skill players. The team can’t outscore unless this happens.

    Winning the possession battle is key to that. To expect all players to contribute to possession isn’t the same as wanting to trade Eberle for Moen or something. I’d trade Eberle for Neal in a second.

    Edit: Hall is -14, Nuge -24.

  109. Professor Q says:

    Water Fire: Eberle is -37 career. The object for each player is to outscore the opponent, especially the skill players. The team can’t outscore unless this happens.

    Winning the possession battle is key to that. To expect all players to contribute to possession isn’t the same as wanting to trade Eberle for Moen or something. I’d trade Eberle for Neal in a second.

    Unfortunately, Neal is doing quite well with Wilson and Johanson so far…

  110. jzed says:

    Watched St.Lou v Ducks, couldn’t bear to watch the 3rd period collapse we might have seen a few times before. Totally different game, every check, really, every check, finished, even 3 steamboats later type hits. Until the Oil commit to finishing every check, other teams will continue to ‘push hard’ and rightly expect the Oul to wither.

  111. bendelson says:

    Woogie63:
    Bakersfield plays three games while the NHL is on All-Star break….

    Can an 18 year old go down for condition?

    Would Nurse and or Driasaitl benefit from 3 more games in the AHL?

    I think they will benefit from time off during the all-star break.
    Re-charge for a strong finish to the season.

  112. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Water Fire,

    Don’t take this the wrong way. You were “reading” about Lidstrom? Did you not watch him play in his prime?

    To say D-men don’t need to be studs “because Lidstrom” is a bit like saying centres don’t need to be fast and have a heavy shot “because 99.” And no, I am not saying Lidstrom is in the same class as Wayne. But you trotted out one of the 5 best D of all time as your example.

    Also, +/- is not a good measure of outscoring for many reasons, but especially on a team as bad as the Oilers.

    Edit- also Bourque was famous for his accurate shot. Coffey didn’t have an all-world slapper for power either

  113. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    jzed,

    Finishing every check isn’t what leads to wins. Scoring one or more than the opposition is.

  114. Water Fire says:

    RexLibris: Why would moving Eberle at the deadline be a good thing?

    You won’t be getting back a top pairing defender from a team heading into the playoffs and he is signed for quite a few more (likely productive) years.

    The expiring UFAs I get, and Schultz even, but Eberle makes no sense on that list.

    Agreed, but I wonder if it would make sense to try and deal Eberle for Stamkos, if due diligence suggested he would sign at a palatable amount and it gave the inside track. If they knew they could sign Stamkos UFA it wouldn’t make sense, only if it lead to retaining him. I think he wants to play with McDavid.

  115. OF17 says:

    speeds: Problem is the pick is setting up to be too valuable to move for most/nearly all? of the D that will be available via trade.

    I get that everyone’s frustrated but making a bad trade won’t ease that.

    I also can’t see Chiarelli passing on the type of player that will be available with that pick. I guess “can’t see” is too far, but when essentially every player in the top 10 is 6’1″ or bigger – some in the 6’3″+ range – can you really see Chiarelli saying no? If Laine or Gauthier or Puljujarvi or Tkachuk is sitting there, I think we can add him to the “Draisaitl/Pouliot/Kassian” list of our potential top-9 forwards.

  116. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Water Fire,

    You think Tampa would deal Stamkos for Eberle !?!?!?

  117. geowal says:

    Water Fire: Eberle is -37 career. The object for each player is to outscore the opponent, especially the skill players. The team can’t outscore unless this happens.

    Winning the possession battle is key to that. To expect all players to contribute to possession isn’t the same as wanting to trade Eberle for Moen or something. I’d trade Eberle for Neal in a second.

    Edit: Hall is -14, Nuge -24.

    84 career powerplay points for Eberle counteracts that -37 nicely, which doesn’t exclude those powerplays where he is there but not awarded a point. As a curiousity of the numbers, Eberle happens to be #37 in powerplay points amongst all players over that time frame since he came into the league.

    This -37 incidentally happening on a team which over that time has pretty much always had bottom 5 to 10 goaltending and defense, I don’t think -37 is anything to begrudge much in that context.
    Could he be better defensively? Sure. He actually is pretty deft at winning forecheck battles I think, it just isn’t translating to the defensive side.

    Regardless, my original post, which was little more than a pot-shot, was not to say never trade him ever (though I’d be sad to see him go), it was against the idea he should be “dumped” at the deadline, which to me implies for picks or spare parts. That in my opinion, is simply ludicrous. If he is to be traded, it needs be for something currently needed, and “nhl ready”.

  118. jzed says:

    Scoring when the opposition knows you cannot/ will not keep them honest physically, is decidedly more difficult than the alternative. Having watched 10 yrs of other teams push us around and freewheel without care, cannot see getting out of this without commitment to play harder. Not killer hits and head shots, but putting your body on the opposition every time. I don’t even care if they bounce!

  119. frjohnk says:

    I don’t like +-. It is a flawed stat
    There are a host of reasons why this is a bad metric from player usage, shooting and save %, etc.

    Nail Yakupov is -73 in his career and since 2010, he is 1011th out 1017 players 5 on 5 plus minus

    Steve Downie, is +28 and ranks 82nd out of 1017 player 5 on 5 plus minus

    We know that Yak is not very good defensively, but Downie is not a very good defensive player either.
    Is Downie better than Yak by 101 goals?
    Or has he played on teams that had more actual NHL players and better goaltending?

    Id rather have Yak on my team

  120. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    The discourse today is going backwards a bit.

    +/- is very flawed.
    Lidstrom was a top 5 defenseman. Ever. A stud. I don’t know where that discussion is going.
    Finishing checks isn’t what wins hockey games. Agreed that playing hard is important. Yes, it has been 10 years out of the playoffs and I feel the pain, too, but the full tank began the Hall year. The team certainly had a different style in 2007 and you can’t lump that in with now.

    There’s plenty to be unhappy with, but let’s try to keep the discussion going in a constructive direction?

  121. DBO says:

    Any interest in Jakub Kindl ? Waived by Wings to make cap space. Yes left handed, but a real dman.

  122. Water Fire says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Water Fire,

    Don’t take this the wrong way. You were “reading” about Lidstrom? Did you not watch him play in his prime?

    To say D-men don’t need to be studs “because Lidstrom” is a bit like saying centres don’t need to be fast and have a heavy shot “because 99.” And no, I am not saying Lidstrom is in the same class as Wayne. But you trotted out one of the 5 best D of all time as your example.

    Also, +/- is not a good measure of outscoring for many reasons, but especially on a team as bad as the Oilers.

    Sorry I wasn’t clear. Firstly +/- is a good stat in a large sample, so for a career it is useful. In short samples it can be misleading because context. Somebody smart established that years ago, can’t remember who, and it’s intuitive.

    The point I was trying to make about defense is I don’t think that there are very many of the type of player people seem to want Chiarelli to get, and why would a team trade him anyway? If the Oilers can get guys who can play and do the little things right it is very effective.

    I mentioned Lidstrom because he was a very effective player by doing the little things very well and consistently, as opposed to being a force of nature type like the other offensive D men mentioned.

    The stud D or true first pairing thing reminds me of the big forward whale hunting of yor. With the D a lot of what we evaluate are team driven effects IMO. As in the Oiler D look bad often but get very little forward support compared to good teams.

    There are more Hamonics Seabrooks Petrys and Sekeras, less Subbans Karlssons and Yandles, and few Keiths Suters and Doughty’s.

    Success isn’t predicated only in getting one of the five or whatever rare and best players in a position.

  123. Water Fire says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Water Fire,

    You think Tampa would deal Stamkos for Eberle !?!?!?

    I have no idea. They are going to lose Stamkos more than likely. There will be offers, but contenders aren’t going to offer a current good player, it’s usually futures. So the question is, would Yzerman take the opportunity to replace the offense with a current high scoring player under contract control at a lesser cap hit playing the same position, as in moving St Louis for Callahan, and is it worth it to Edmonton? I suppose if he’d sign after a trade he’d do it UFA and the Oilers could keep or use the asset elsewhere.

  124. Oil2Oilers says:

    With the playoffs, always a distant bell, a sure miss again it is time to dream of next year;

    Hall-Draisaitl-FINNISH GIANT
    Kassian-McDavid-Yakupov
    Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle
    Penalty Killer A-Penalty Killer B-Faint Hope A

    Klefbom-Harmonic
    Nurse-Sekera
    davidson-reinhart

    Is this enough to make the playoffs? Harmonic acquired for Schultz and the futures assembled by the others I left off the roster.

  125. geowal says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: The discourse today is going backwards a bit.

    +/- is very flawed.

    Agreed. But it’s a slow day. Am I enabling +/- by warping it to include the powerplay in my attempt to downplay it at the same time? Perhaps…

  126. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Before the Eberle train really gets rolling down the mainline:

    Jakub Voracek—143
    Phil Kessel—141
    Corey Perry—137
    Patrick Kane—133
    Blake Wheeler—130
    Jordan Eberle—128
    Martin St. Louis—121
    Marian Hossa—121
    Kyle Okposo—120
    Jarome Iginla—120

    Points, Right wingers, Two Seasons [Not this one]

    In the last 12 games Oilers prodigious offence has connected for 21 goals & Eberle has 11 points.

    He”s clearly easily replaceable. TRADE HIM111

  127. theres oil in virginia says:

    Steve Yzerman was -42 for the first 4 years of his career. Mario Lemieux was -41 over his first 2 years. Wayne Gretzky was never minus until 1991, then suddenly was -63 for the rest of his LA years (5 years). I could spend the rest of the night digging up other examples and still only scratch the surface. Using +/- without any context is not demonstrative of a players value.

  128. frjohnk says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: The discourse today is going backwards a bit.

    Yes, to move this conversation forward, we should look at projected points and standings for the end of the year

    1   WASHINGTON 129
    2   DALLAS 118
    3   CHICAGO 107
    4   LOS ANGELES 111
    5   FLORIDA 108
    6   ST. LOUIS 99
    7   MINNESOTA 103
    8   DETROIT 98
    9   NY ISLANDERS 98
    10   MONTREAL 96
    11   NY RANGERS 98
    12   BOSTON 97
    13   NASHVILLE 90
    14   COLORADO 88
    15   NEW JERSEY 88
    16   ARIZONA 90
    17   TAMPA BAY 88
    18   OTTAWA 88
    19   PITTSBURGH 88
    20   PHILADELPHIA 86
    21   ANAHEIM 84
    22   WINNIPEG 82
    23   VANCOUVER 82
    24   CAROLINA 80
    25   CALGARY 82
    26   TORONTO 82
    27   SAN JOSE 82
    28   EDMONTON 72
    29   BUFFALO 68
    30   COLUMBUS 64

    and then look at projected draft rankings
    The draft always soothes an Oilers fan.
    🙂

  129. Tire Fire says:

    Going to the Kinston Frontenacs vs Owen Sound Attack tonight. Very curious to see this contentious Lawson Crouse character live. Dal Colle is playing too, should make for some nice action.

  130. hags9k says:

    speeds,

    That is a great question. Of course in hindsight nobody would have liked to have seen the McDavid or Draisatl picks sent away for, as an example, a Hamonic just to crawl out of the second division. Nurse is very debateable due to the longer development timeline for D.

    But now that we have so many top assets up front, (and 97) the timeline has to be moved up. Since there has been no significant trade made yet, I assume the ask for a Hamonic is too high. (Eberle)
    We have an amazing collection of young talent already, in years past the cupboards were so bare the best course was to stand pat and restock. The clock is ticking on 97s ELC. When do we pay the piper?

    I just don’t think this year’s 1st rounder be it a F or a D, is going to be any help at all next year or maybe even two years on.

    Of course I don’t want to see a horrible trade. For clarity’s sake I am assuming that at draft time the 1st and Schultz is going to get Hamonic or similar.

    It boils down to I would rather Hamonic playing top minutes next year than a more valuable prospect (Pulijaarvi or similar) developing in the system. And I’d rather keep Eberle than force that 1st rounder into the vacancy his aquiring the D man would create.

  131. geowal says:

    frjohnk: and then look at projected draft rankings
    The draft always soothes an Oilers fan.
    🙂

    That’s it, I’m outta here, time to shovel the walk (not really picture taking weather).
    Played meaningful games in January, got another month over last year.

  132. Professor Q says:

    Eberle off the trading of Jordan, people! :p

    Holes for holes…

    *grumbles*

  133. Professor Q says:

    Tire Fire:
    Going to the Kinston Frontenacs vs Owen Sound Attack tonight.Very curious to see this contentious Lawson Crouse character live.Dal Colle is playing too, should make for some nice action.

    I haven’t been to a Knights game in a few years; I might need to try to get to see one this year to see how Jones, Juolevi, and Tkatchuk are doing!

  134. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    Pulock already was pretty untouchable in NYI. With Hamonic’s foot half way out the door, he’s absolutely not going anywhere.

  135. frjohnk says:

    Bruce McCurdy: In the last 12 games Oilers prodigious offence has connected for 21 goals & Eberle has 11 points.

    He”s clearly easily replaceable. TRADE HIM111

    Cmon Bruce you are clearly cherry picking stats.
    How many points did he have in the first 13 games?
    Exactly. Trade the bum.

  136. Lowetide says:

    Some real Smokestack crazy ideas in here today. We know the things that win games, right? Right?

  137. Water Fire says:

    geowal: 84 career powerplay points for Eberle counteracts that -37 nicely, which doesn’t exclude those powerplays where he is there but not awarded a point.As a curiousity of the numbers, Eberle happens to be #37 in powerplay points amongst all players over that time frame since he came into the league.

    This -37 incidentally happening on a team which over that time has pretty much always had bottom 5 to 10 goaltending and defense, I don’t think -37 is anything to begrudge much in that context.
    Could he be better defensively? Sure.He actually is pretty deft at winning forecheck battles I think, it just isn’t translating to the defensive side.

    Regardless, my original post, which was little more than a pot-shot, was not to say never trade him ever (though I’d be sad to see him go), it was against the idea he should be “dumped” at the deadline, which to me implies for picks or spare parts.That in my opinion, is simply ludicrous.If he is to be traded, it needs be for something currently needed, and “nhl ready”.

    Eberle shouldn’t be a deadline deal, you move him in a hockey trade for sure if at all.

    It’s been long established that even strength play is where teams win and lose over time. Much of the work has disappeared now that many guys work in house, Google didn’t come up with a link to pass on, sorry.

    The fact Eberle’s +/- is worse than Hall and Nuge is and indicator, he’s behind them in this. The reason the Oilers lose, which is the heart of the matter, is the top players don’t play a solid enough style to win and outscore at even strength.

    They have tried to play like the Benn line in Dallas but can’t score enough. It’s not a successful style anyway, teams that can’t defend usually don’t win the big prize.

    They force plays offensively, and it leads to odd man rushes etc. McLellan has addressed the need to grow the puck and game management. Hall, Eberle, Yak still play like this a lot.

    They are starting to move in the right direction, but every we time we see somebody try to pick a top corner from a sharp angle with little showing, instead of hard off the pads for a rebound, and ring it out for a 3 on 2, you know Mclellan’s neck is turning red.

  138. Tire Fire says:

    Professor Q,

    I saw only one Knights game last year. Pretty lopsided though, Nurse came to town and was the driver all game long.

  139. "Steve Smith" says:

    Lowetide:
    Some real Smokestack crazy ideas in here today. We know the things that win games, right? Right?

    We’re Oilers fans: what possible opportunity could we have had to learn what wins games?

  140. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide:
    Some real Smokestack crazy ideas in here today. We know the things that win games, right? Right?

    Yeah, As Erik Karlsson put it, “score more goals than the other team.”

    PLUS-MINUS, BABY!!!

  141. Tire Fire says:

    Lowetide:
    Some real Smokestack crazy ideas in here today. We know the things that win games, right? Right?

    Eye glow?

  142. Professor Q says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Yeah, As Erik Karlsson put it, “score more goals than the other team.”

    PLUS-MINUS, BABY!!!

    I believe it would have been more effective to use Yakupov”s version of that saying. 😉

  143. RexLibris says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    The deft addition of “111” at the end of your trade Eberle reply made me laugh heartily.

    Thank you. I needed that.

  144. Water Fire says:

    Lowetide:
    Some real Smokestack crazy ideas in here today. We know the things that win games, right? Right?

    Despite injuries, it’s certainly not what the Oilers do. McLellan has the team play going the right way, we’ll see what Chiarelli sees as the issues.

  145. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    Some real Smokestack crazy ideas in here today. We know the things that win games, right? Right?

    I blame the three own-goals last night.

    “Talbot plays a great game against the opposition but can’t stop a beachball from his own team!”

    “Flush him for a 5th and call it a day!”

    Serenitynowserenitynowserenitynow…

  146. RexLibris says:

    You know what brings a smile to my face today?

    Writing my half-season review of the Canucks.

    That Dorsett contract looks like a beauty right now.

    He is on pace for 14 pts on the season, so by my math that means the Canucks are paying him $189,285.71 per point.

    I haven’t checked to see what his +/- is though.

  147. Tire Fire says:

    RexLibris:
    You know what brings a smile to my face today?

    Writing my half-season review of the Canucks.

    That Dorsett contract looks like a beauty right now.

    He is on pace for 14 pts on the season, so by my math that means the Canucks are paying him $189,285.71 per point.

    I haven’t checked to see what his +/- is though.

    I just checked, he’s in the plus by about 2.65 unwarranted millions.

  148. frjohnk says:

    RexLibris:
    You know what brings a smile to my face today?

    Writing my half-season review of the Canucks.

    That Dorsett contract looks like a beauty right now.

    He is on pace for 14 pts on the season, so by my math that means the Canucks are paying him $189,285.71 per point.

    I haven’t checked to see what his +/- is though.

    Canucks are paying him $189,285.71 per minus.

  149. Water Fire says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Yeah, As Erik Karlsson put it, “score more goals than the other team.”

    PLUS-MINUS, BABY!!!

    Dinks 🙂

  150. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    The Steve Downie example was the best one here so far to demonstrate the uselessness of +/-, even across a career basis.

    If you play on a crap team, expect a crap +/-.

    The Oilers are about 280 goals in the red since Hall was drafted. Petry had a terrible +/-. He is all of a sudden touted as a great #3 by the media and people ask how the Oilers let him get away.

    Eberle isn’t perfect but he scores goals. That’s tough to do. It has value. Until there is an upgrade, like an improbable Stamkos for Eberle trade, no one on this team does it better than he does. Even in this down year so far for him.

    I am not averse to trading Eberle but it has to make sense.

    As for finishing checks leading to wins, well, I really feel that horse has been flogged to death around here. I am going to go make some pictures.

  151. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Water Fire,

    Okay…still not sure why you brought Lidstrom into the discussion. Sure you find more Stralmans and Petrys than Subbans and Karlssons.

    But you certainly don’t find Lidstroms available. Did you watch the man play? He was amazing.

    Edit- I don’t mean to pick on you. Agreed that Chia should be looking for effective defenders and those come in a variety of shapes and sizes. I was just taken aback you used Lidstrom as a model. He was a once-in-a-decade or so stud.

  152. Atc-Nate says:

    RexLibris:
    You know what brings a smile to my face today?

    Writing my half-season review of the Canucks.

    That Dorsett contract looks like a beauty right now.

    He is on pace for 14 pts on the season, so by my math that means the Canucks are paying him $189,285.71 per point.

    I haven’t checked to see what his +/- is though.

    You know what put a smile on my face? Your post. Bahaha. However please don’t calculate what NN is getting paid per point (NHL).

  153. speeds says:

    hags9k:
    speeds,

    That is a great question. Of course in hindsight nobody would have liked to have seen the McDavid or Draisatl picks sent away for, as an example, a Hamonic just to crawl out of the second division.Nurse is very debateable due to the longer development timeline for D.

    But now that we have so many top assets up front, (and 97) the timeline has to be moved up.Since there has been no significant trade made yet, I assume the ask for a Hamonic is too high. (Eberle)
    We have an amazing collection of young talent already, in years past the cupboards were so bare the best course was to stand pat and restock.The clock is ticking on 97s ELC.When do we pay the piper?

    I just don’t think this year’s 1st rounder be it a F or a D, is going to be any help at all next year or maybe even two years on.

    Of course I don’t want to see a horrible trade.For clarity’s sake I am assuming that at draft time the 1st and Schultz is going to get Hamonic or similar.

    It boils down to I would rather Hamonic playing top minutes next year than a more valuable prospect (Pulijaarvi or similar) developing in the system.And I’d rather keep Eberle than force that 1st rounder into the vacancy his aquiring the D man would create.

    “The timeline has to be moved up” has an impatient ring to it, IMO. There is an argument to reallocate F talent to the D (although I am probably more hesitant to that sort of move than most, all else equal). I don’t agree as much about moving futures for the now (although as always, depends on the specifics. For example, I wouldn’t move EDM’s pick for Shattenkirk at this point, maybe some would?)

    I also think there is a tendency to somewhat underplay how quickly draft picks can pan out when people are already looking to improve, now, today. That isn’t to say that first round picks always pan out, or pan out quickly, of course they don’t.

    As for Eberle/Hamonic/2016 pick, Hamonic is a bit of an outlier in the “trade for a D” discussion because he’s under contract/team control longer than many of the D talked about, and also at a lower cap hit than many of the other potential options. He’s actually under contract for a year longer than Eberle.

    Let’s say EDM’s pick ends up 4th or 5th. Let’s say EDM could trade Eberle for Hamonic as the principals, or trade the pick straight up for Hamonic.

    Which option do people prefer:

    (1) Hamonic and Eberle at a cost of ~10M in cap room

    (2) Eberle and 4/5OV, with extra cap room relative to option 1

    (3) Hamonic and 4/5OV, with even more cap room vs. option 1

  154. The Trade Guy says:

    McDavid after the allstar game is a gut punch. He looked close to ready> I guess nobody is going to fault them for being careful with the franchise and collar bones can be dicey.

    But man… I’m having a hard time reading about the Oilers much less watching them.

  155. Caramel Obvious says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Water Fire,

    You think Tampa would deal Stamkos for Eberle !?!?!?

    If Tampa trades Stamkos at the deadline the return will be less than Eberle.

    Trading Eberle for Stamkos is a crazy trade for the Oilers. Unforgivably bad.

    Even if you end up signing him you just took a massive risk. Absolutely massive. I would fire Chiarelli for that kind of deal.

  156. Caramel Obvious says:

    Claiming Kindl is a no brainer.

    Are there any circumstances in which he isn’t an upgrade?

    If MacT were still in charge he would have been crucified for the last six months.

    [Edit] Ok, so there is the extra year, so there is some risk. Still the man has to be better than Brad Hunt and Brad Hunt is playing right now on merit.

  157. Marc says:

    So I started this day by watching last night’s Oilers game, in which they played a pretty solid game but managed to lose on three consecutive own goals.

    I then went up to Watford to watch Newcastle United get knocked out of the FA Cup, the fourth consecutive match in which they’ve dominated possession and chances but managed to lose 1-0.

    Yay sports!

  158. Atc-Nate says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    I suppose that depends on what race Chiarelli wants to win. :/

  159. Caramel Obvious says:

    speeds,

    speeds,

    I like option 3.

  160. Professor Q says:

    The Trade Guy:
    McDavid after the allstar game is a gut punch. He looked close to ready> I guess nobody is going to fault them for being careful with the franchise and collar bones can be dicey.

    But man… I’m having a hard time reading about the Oilers much less watching them.

    If it means that he has more time to heal and make sure that the upper body holds up and has a longer career without complications, I’d say it’s a gut lunch I’d willingly take.

  161. Water Fire says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker":
    Water Fire,

    Okay…still not sure why you brought Lidstrom into the discussion.Sure you find more Stralmans and Petrys than Subbans and Karlssons.

    But you certainly don’t find Lidstroms available. Did you watch the man play? He was amazing.

    Edit- I don’t mean to pick on you. Agreed that Chia should be looking for effective defenders and those come in a variety of shapes and sizes. I was just taken aback you used Lidstrom as a model. He was a once-in-a-decade or so stud.

    I’m not doing a good job of presenting what I’m thinking. Put how good Lidstrom was aside, it’s how he did it. The Oilers can get a lesser version, the non sexy effective D, like Stralman or Sekera, whoever. It will make them a lot better, good enough to win.

    The sexy kind I’m saying is the pipe dream. Not happening, there aren’t enough of them, and that’s fine if they do actually get effective players instead of guys like Gryba that at best can have a good game at times. They need skaters and passers to feed the forwards, not hard hitting puck squarers and guys afraid to gap because slow.

  162. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Water Fire,

    Haha. I thought the Oilers already tried “Big Sexy” on the blue line. That went well.

    I’m not sure about the effectiveness of “sexy vs. non-sexy” D, but I feel a new meme coming on and very few D in history were sexier than Lidstrom was, if being effective as a player is what counts towards being “sexy.” I guess I’m not sure why Karlsson is sexy in your books but not Lidstrom. Haha.

  163. RexLibris says:

    Atc-Nate: You know what put a smile on my face? Your post. Bahaha. However please don’t calculate what NN is getting paid per point (NHL).

    Easy.

    $4.5 million per point.

    Nikitin has one point in the NHL this year.

    I like math where I don’t have to take off my shoes and socks to count.

  164. Centre of attention says:

    Step back from the ledge people, this season was never about making the playoffs. They wanted to see what they have, and what they have is a mess.

    One can’t help but wonder why it took 42 games to figure this out. Just increasing the value of the first round pick I guess? *spits*

    The “meaningful” games were a pleasant surprise but were sadly a pipe dream.

    Unless Brossoit gets called up in March and they go on a ’15 Ottawa Senators type run I don’t see them even being in the picture.

    First round pick will be guaranteed inside the top 8, and traded at the draft for [hopefully] some much needed reinforcements on the blue line. Chiarelli has to hit a home run on that trade, the next decade depends on it.

    As for forwards Purcell and/or Pouliot will probably go too, Kassian types or equivalent players taking their spot(s).

    I have a feeling Chiarelli wants a few Nathan Horton or Lucic types in the top 9 and he’ll die on that hill.

    We wait.

  165. Water Fire says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    The Steve Downie example was the best one here so far to demonstrate the uselessness of +/-, even across a career basis.

    If you play on a crap team, expect a crap +/-.

    The Oilers are about 280 goals in the red since Hall was drafted. Petry had a terrible +/-. He is all of a sudden touted as a great #3 by the media and people ask how the Oilers let him get away.

    Eberle isn’t perfect but he scores goals. That’s tough to do. It has value. Until there is an upgrade, like an improbable Stamkos for Eberle trade, no one on this team does it better than he does. Even in this down year so far for him.

    I am not averse to trading Eberle but it has to make sense.

    As for finishing checks leading to wins, well, I really feel that horse has been flogged to death around here. I am going to go make some pictures.

    +/- is goals, Bruce has said he likes goals in bigger samples. It is the same as Corsi essentially. The key is sample size, a career is a good one for +/-, Corsi for smaller samples.

    LT likes Corsi Rel to compare the player to his mates to see who is the best on the team. Who knows if it’s a good way to measure D, but it is a reasonable thought. And does show something between them.

    As for Stamkos, nobody is addressing the thought, just being critical. Certainly you thought outside of the box in your finance career to come up with different conclusions than the pack, no?

    The thought is do you trade Eberle if you can secure Stamkos by getting in early, with guarantees and certainty, which are possible? Yes you might sign him UFA with no asset loss, but you can’t know that now, and you can know more if you are negotiating with Tampa. And somebody else might do it first. Is he worth it?

  166. RexLibris says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Water Fire,

    Haha. I thought the Oilers already tried “Big Sexy” on the blue line. That went well.

    I’m not sure about the effectiveness of “sexy vs. non-sexy” D, but I feel a new meme coming on and very few D in history were sexier than Lidstrom was, if being effective as a player is what counts towards being “sexy.” I guess I’m not sure why Karlsson is sexy in your books but not Lidstrom. Haha.

    I’d disagree slightly that Lidstrom was widely considered to be “sexy”.

    As I recall he didn’t get a lot of love (to continue with our term de jour) from the media until the latter stages of his career.

    As I recall the media made a big fuss in 2008 about his was the first team to win a championship while captained by a European-born player. I remember thinking “what the hell does that even matter?”

    I don’t think it was until he was retiring or in Detroit’s post-’08 phase where players started talking more and more about him and the media members began to take notice, independent free-thinkers that they are (sorry, too harsh?)

    In the modern era, say the decade post dead-puck, I’d say that Lidstrom and Pronger would probably be my 1st pairing in a fantasy team. So to that end understand that I was then and am still a very strong fan of Lidstrom’s style of play.

  167. Pouzar says:

    Michael Grosso ‏@RumorBreak 30m30 minutes ago
    Shattenkirk is available per sources. Has been linked to TB and TOR.

    LT, I only post this b/c he’s been right on a couple things recently.

  168. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Water Fire,

    Never said I was against getting Stamkos. But a deadline deal going into UFA makes little sense to me unless you know he will sign for a reasonable number. Discussed that in a prior thread or two.

    I’m all for creative solutions. For example I wouldn’t be against trying 5o acquire Drouin for cheap. Sure he doesn’t address the D but improvement is inprovement. Buying low is buying low.

    We will just have to agree to disagree on +/- since I don’t think we will see eye to eye on it.

  169. G Money says:

    Hello! I’m baaaaaaaaaaack!

    Tired a fu*k, though, ’cause it’s 4:15 am. Forcing myself to stay awake until at least 8 to try and get back on track as quickly as I can.

    Therefore, expect little to no coherency in my posts.

    Business as usual in other words.

    Goddamn, Canada is so frickin’ _big_ and _empty_!

  170. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    RexLibris,

    Hmm. I didn’t say Lidstrom was widely considered to be “sexy” did i?

  171. Caramel Obvious says:

    Water Fire: I’m not doing a good job of presenting what I’m thinking. Put how good Lidstrom was aside, it’s how he did it. The Oilers can get a lesser version, the non sexy effective D, like Stralman or Sekera, whoever. It will make them a lot better, good enough to win.

    The sexy kind I’m saying is the pipe dream. Not happening, there aren’t enough of them, and that’s fine if they do actually get effective players instead of guys like Gryba that at best can have a good game at times. They need skaters and passers to feed the forwards, not hard hitting puck squarers and guys afraid to gap because slow.

    I completely agree. There is more than one way to win. You don’t need Chris Pronger. This team isn’t going to have Chris Pronger. They have to win without Chris Pronger.

    Chasing that whale and making bad trades because you think you need to is a good way to never get better.

  172. Centre of attention says:

    Pouzar:
    Michael Grosso ‏@RumorBreak30m30 minutes ago
    Shattenkirk is available per sources. Has been linked to TB and TOR.

    LT, I only post this b/c he’s been right on a couple things recently.

    Pick up the phone, Peter.

  173. Water Fire says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Water Fire,

    Haha. I thought the Oilers already tried “Big Sexy” on the blue line. That went well.

    I’m not sure about the effectiveness of “sexy vs. non-sexy” D, but I feel a new meme coming on and very few D in history were sexier than Lidstrom was, if being effective as a player is what counts towards being “sexy.” I guess I’m not sure why Karlsson is sexy in your books but not Lidstrom. Haha.

    Lidstrom was an understated player. It’s the difference between visually exciting players and those where it’s harder to see what they are accomplishing. It’s like Suter compared to Subban. Everything is large with PK, you have to break down video to see how good Suter is like Justin Bourne did a while back at the Score, to see what he’s actually doing that works so well.

    I don’t think this point is that hard to get. Forget Lidstrom, he’s irrelevant to this, I’m not hung up on him. It’s the basic point and who the Oilers can actually get, what type of player they need to have to win, and that they need to get playerse better than Gryba, Schultz and Fayne.

    I agree with LT that Fayne is currently a top 4 option, I want an upgrade.

  174. godot10 says:

    McDavid needs defensemen, NOT Steven effin’ Stamkos.

    Stamkos is not value for money on his next contract. If he wants to come on a severe discount in the summer as a UFA…okay…I have no problem with that.

    If Eberle is going to be traded, the time to do that is June to maximize his value (he has duratioin, most teams can’t bid for him in-season). And one shouldn’t do it until one has seen McDavid-Eberle.

    Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl
    Pouliot, McDavid, Eberle.

    One doesn’t trade Eberle or Nugent-Hopkins till one gets a good look at those two lines in action.

  175. Water Fire says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Water Fire,

    Never said I was against getting Stamkos. But a deadline deal going into UFA makes little sense to me unless you know he will sign for a reasonable number. Discussed that in a prior thread or two.

    I’m all for creative solutions. For example I wouldn’t be against trying 5o acquire Drouin for cheap. Sure he doesn’t address the D but improvement is inprovement. Buying low is buying low.

    We will just have to agree to disagree on +/- since I don’t think we will see eye to eye on it.

    Yes the premise is a guaranteed deal.

    As for +/- agreed. And it’s never mentioned in these parts because careers aren’t usually what we are discussing, so it’s not usually useful, it doesn’t matter.

  176. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Water Fire,

    Already said I agreed with you about effective players coming in various different forms. Also agreed we need 2 upgrades on D within the top 4. Mentioned that from near the beginning.

    My only disagreements are about the use of +/- to measure a player’s effectiveness without the context of the team, and your decision to put Lidstrom in the “non-sexy” D category. He was always so very smart to me that he was elite.

    They were meant to be separate discussions. I apologize for lumping them together or making them seem lumped together.

  177. RexLibris says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    RexLibris,

    Hmm. I didn’t say Lidstrom was widely considered to be “sexy” did i?

    Maybe I mis-read.

  178. kinger_OIL says:

    – I am surprised by the posters talking about playoffs. When they lost 3-0 to the Laughs, I posted the numbers, said playoffs weren’t going to happen

    – Even right after, they went on that 6 games point streak, they were barely in playoffs

    – When you’ve only won 8 games in regulation all year, you can’t expect to turn it around

    – Homework: ” The Oil are a playoff team: T/F? provide your rationale, and thought process”

  179. RexLibris says:

    G Money:
    Hello!I’m baaaaaaaaaaack!

    Tired a fu*k, though, ’cause it’s 4:15 am.Forcing myself to stay awake until at least 8 to try and get back on track as quickly as I can.

    Therefore, expect little to no coherency in my posts.

    Business as usual in other words.

    Goddamn, Canada is so frickin’ _big_ and _empty_!

    Welcome back.

    I remember coming back to Edmonton from LA years ago and the first thought that went through my head was “has there been a city-wide bomb scare?”

    Funny how you don’t notice the space until it is taken away from you.

  180. Water Fire says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Water Fire,

    Already said I agreed with you about effective players coming in various different forms. Also agreed we need 2 upgrades on D within the top 4. Mentioned that from near the beginning.

    My only disagreements are about the use of +/- to measure a player’s effectiveness without the context of the team, and your decision to put Lidstrom in the “non-sexy” D category. He was always so very smart to me that he was elite.

    Lidstrom was always elite, I think Rex summed it up nicely.

  181. sliderule says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Tho first thing any coach says to his players is finish your checks..This all the way from triple A midget to the NHL.

    That doesn’t mean thunderous hits.

    As an old coach told me years ago you have to bump them.

    If you swooped you would sit.

  182. Caramel Obvious says:

    Water Fire: Yes the premise is a guaranteed deal.

    As for +/- agreed. And it’s never mentioned in these parts because careers aren’t usually what we are discussing, so it’s not usually useful, it doesn’t matter.

    But that is a flawed premise. You can’t trade for Stamkos on a guaranteed deal. There is no such thing.

    Anyway the guy to trade for is Shattenkirk and it isn’t even close.

  183. "Steve Smith" says:

    RexLibris: I like math where I don’t have to take off my shoes and socks to count.

    You have 4.5 million fingers?

  184. GCW_69 says:

    Centre of attention: Pouzar:
    Michael Grosso ‏@RumorBreak30m30 minutes ago
    Shattenkirk is available per sources. Has been linked to TB and TOR.
    LT, I only post this b/c he’s been right on a couple things recently.
    Pick up the phone, Peter

    From a proven player point of view, Shattenkirk is the best option the Oilers are going to see hit the market, but from an asset management his contract situation is the absolute worst. He isn’t close enough you can negotiate an extension as part of the trade and you might only be able to keep him for a season and a half. Given he is from New York, there is a real risk he won’t re-sign. Maybe even a high risk. You would need to talk to the agent about a framework for an extension before pulling that trigger, I think.

    From an asset management point of view, Hamonic is a better fit.

  185. hags9k says:

    speeds,

    Good points, but Nurse is showing us how much time a high 1st round D can take to make an impact. I think we are at the point we can sacrifice some future for the now in the name of balance and turning North.

    As far as sounding impatient? Damn rights I am! It’s been a decade. Our team is largely future, as it has been every year. Time to cash some for the now. I have been plenty patient, preached patience for years. But the cupboards used to be completely bare. Now we have lots of nice things and are so close to winning some games.

    Option 1 for me.

  186. BONE207 says:

    G Money:
    Hello!I’m baaaaaaaaaaack!

    Tired a fu*k, though, ’cause it’s 4:15 am.Forcing myself to stay awake until at least 8 to try and get back on track as quickly as I can.

    Therefore, expect little to no coherency in my posts.

    Business as usual in other words.

    Goddamn, Canada is so frickin’ _big_ and _empty_!

    Well I’m glad you’re back. Canada should stay big and empty. Need room to hunt moose.

  187. CrazyCoach says:

    Water Fire: The Oilers lose because there are too many puck optional players and too many one dimensional players. I agree the forwards are not doing a good enough job and are the real issue behind defensive and breakout issues. Certainly there are issues with the D, but it’s not the whole story.
    Edit: Maybe Crazy Coach and some of the other coaches can put their 2 cents in about those issues.

    Sorry for the late reply. Busy all day and night.

    I’m kind of hamstrung when I make statements about Oilers team play as I only see them live maybe once a year. Hard for me to watch patterns when I only see half the ice. That being said, I’ll give you the quick and dirty. When I speak of team tactics, I’m talking about thecombination of the actions of two or more players utilizing individual tactics.

    One team tactic, I see the Oilers lacking is support, both defensively and offensively. Support defensively is doing things like creating an outnumbered situation by back checking hard or flooding a zone, retrieving loose pucks after a pin, etc. Offensively, you pretty much try to do the same, but obviously different tactics. Create an outnumbered by starting your cycle behind the net (watch the Sedins, who are the masters) or even an aggressive dump and chase. I know some people don’t like dump and chase but if done properly you will gain the other teams blueline and then you can set up there. No outnumber, O-zone turnovers galore.

    Probably rambling here, but those are my quick thoughts.

    What would I do? Go back to the basics and keep it simple. Eakins Swarm failed horribly because it was based on the belief that you basically would create an outnumber anywhere including the point, which leaves the slot vulnerable.

    T Mac needs to track the number of times a cycle happens, blueline turnovers, dump ins, and then improve the numbers. Yeah, it’s very simple and based on the crazy ramblings of a minor hockey coach, but I thought I’d give my two cents.

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