HEROES SAIL

by Lowetide

One of the themes for this season’s Oilers is the number of games they have been in, even very late. Although their record isn’t great, Edmonton has been in games, has taken points from games that would have been sure losses one year ago, and generally showed progress. This weekend marks the end of ‘paying close attention to the standings’ but the roster challenges are now fewer and obvious—and that is progress.

SPACE ODDITY, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
  • Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
  • Oilers in December 2014: 2-8-4
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1
  • Oilers in January 2015: 5-7-1
  • Oilers in January 2016: 2-2-0
  • Oilers after 43 in 2014-15: 10-24-9, 29 points (-48 GD)
  • Oilers after 43 in 2015-16: 17-23-3, 37 points (-22 GD)

You can see what this team lacks, and when Oscar Klefbom returns they will still need a veteran at the top of the roster to still the waters—and help the power play. These things are coming into view. Peter Chiarelli must identify the solutions that will work, without overpaying or using too many assets. Offer sheet remains my weapon of choice.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

oilers blue nov 30

  • Davidson—Gryba were good together, Davidson made countless quick decisions with the puck. It was the kind of game Gryba stands out, bodies everywhere holy hell. As we have (I think) agreed all year, he can defend. Playing with Davidson, it seems to work. Small sample.
  • Sekera—Fayne were solid, Sekera skated miles, made good passes, thinks the game so well. He iced the puck late, when the Oilers were trying to tie it and after a long period in their own zone. He seemed upset, don’t know why. I think I think that the Oilers would be good with two Sekera’s and Klefbom.
  • Mark Fayne played well, even though he spent the evening up against giant forwards who know the cycle well and use their size as an effective tool. Veteran stay-at-home defensemen are people, too, I hope MF stays in the lineup for the road games.
  • Nurse—Schultz were an adventure, poor Darnell coughed up the puck early, Schultz had his wobbly bits too. This was the weakest pairing to my eye, although they played the second and third most minutes on the game.
  • Lots of soft lobs on the 5×4, not just Schultz but Sekera too. Ghastly. I think that was the game, right there. Edmonton’s power play is currently run by Mr. Magoo, and it is costing them games.

CENTER, LAST NIGHT

oil c nov 30

  • Mark Letestu and his line were outstanding, scored the one goal on the evening, crashed and banged, holy hell they mixed it up. Battled along the wall, would not give an inch. After several weeks of poor possession, they fed the young line back and front.
  • Anton Lander and his crew didn’t play a lot, and kept it simple by hammering it in and chasing. The puck was in a good way for most of their time.
  • Leon Draisaitl did not have many moments. Leon made a couple of sublime passes, but nothing rhymed. They have gone cold. We need to remind ourselves that he is 20 and dry spells should have been expected after that white hot first half of the season.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and his bunch had a good battle with a pretty nice 2line. Nuge was physical and engaged, looked effective in most areas including some good moments breaking up the cycle. I was not impressed with this line in the offensive zone.
  • I was disappointed in the 5×4 and that includes four of the men here. Good grief it’s MacT all over again.

WINGERS, LAST NIGHT

oilers f nov 30

  • Korpikoski-Hendricks had a fantastic night, probably the best game Hendricks played (for me) as an Oiler. Dangerous hit on Ekblad, though, that could have been a bad injury.
  • Hall—Purcell had their moments (the disallowed goal was a brilliant effort by Hall) but they couldn’t cash. Damn shame this line is cool, because a couple of goals this weekend would have been extremely valuable. The hit on Hall was right in front of me, he looked blank and then angry, glad he scooted back to the bench to gather himself.
  • Pouliot—Eberle were fine, but there were no wow moments from the line and they did have the lesser hill to climb. I felt they were coming along before last night, hopefully the chime on the road trip.
  • Klinkhammer—Pakarinen were part of an effective 4line, I don’t think we have seen that trio play more than they did last night. Pakarinen always looks like a player when I see him, he really gets in on the forecheck.

MCDAVID INJURY

At the game tonight, heard some negativity about the Oilers being too careful with McDavid. I have to say it surprised me, and offer this reminder without further comment.

  • Sheldon Souray: “I wasn’t even ready to play when I came here, but it was like, ‘We signed you, you go out and play.’ I hadn’t been cleared to play yet, but I was being questioned by the organization:‘When are you going to be able to play?’ Source

TEN BEST PLAYERS IN THE 2016 DRAFT

  1. (1) C Auston Matthews, Zurich Lions (Swiss-A): Franchise center. Another Eichel?
  2. (3) R Jesse Puljujarvi, Karpat (Sm-Liiga): Big man with electric skill.
  3. (2) D Jacob Chychrun, Sarnia Sting (OHL): Potential No. 1 defender.
  4. (4) L Matthew Tkachuk, London Knights (OHL): Great possession player,  tremendous vision.
  5. (5) W Patrik Laine, Tappara (Sm-Liiga): Skilled forward, terrific release.
  6. (6) R Alexander Nylander, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL): High skill, terrific offensive prospect.
  7. (7) R Julien Gauthier, Val D’Or Foreurs (QMJHL): Monster scoring winger.
  8. (9) D Mikhail Sergachev, Windsor Spitfires (OHL): Complete package, only question is how much will he bring offensively?
  9. (8) R Alex DeBrincat, Erie Otters (OHL):Small sniper.
  10. (10) D Olli Juolevi, London Knights (OHL): Very fast defender with range of skills.

PHYSICAL RESPONSE

  • Todd McLellan: “I thought that’s as good a response to physicality I’ve seen from our team this year and probably in my seven years in San Jose when we played Edmonton.” Source

There are certain elements of the fan base who seem to think hammering people means wins. I haven’t read any proof that hits or intimidation result in wins, but am willing to read any links you provide. I am not one of those who puts no value on the physical side of the game, but I am bewildered by anyone who walked away from last night’s game thinking the Oilers didn’t man up. One more thing: Back in the olden days, when a hit like the Hall item happened, you didn’t see a charge toward the offending player. It was more ‘take a number’ and that player would be challenged at another time, when the game state was not in question. The ONE thing you did see back then was a reaction to goalies being hit—that was going to be met with extreme force.

I think some fans want to see RNH break his hand or Eberle slash his way through the brush, but this isn’t a reasonable thought. The Oilers have employed hooligans in the past, may well do it in the future. I was fine with last night’s response, the Hendricks hit aside. Todd McLellan was fine with the effort in that regard and we move on. RNH, Eberle, Hall, Leon, Schultz, Sekera, others, all must use the brains that God gave them to evaluate a situation. None of those men is going to do much good with pure physical violence, but each can do more in the skill department—especially on the power play. That is your lead this morning, men. If you are chasing the ‘physical reaction’ story from last night, you have missed the lead, gone past below the fold, and are now buried after the entertainment section. Unless you yourself are trying to set the agenda, talk of physical force this morning wildly misses the game story from last night. The story is:

  • Rookie makes mistake
  • Another one goes in
  • Team climbs part way back with hard work
  • Skilled men get several 5×4 opportunities and waste them all.
  • Because of the loss, no one is discussing an insane evening in possession.
  • 5×5 Individual Scoring Chances leave us disappointed with several stars. War-On-Ice numbers: Letestu (2); Hall, Eberle, Pakarinen, Lander, Klinkhammer (1). If your favorite player’s name isn’t there, you are allowed to be disappointed in them. Florida is a very good team, but the Oilers had several chances to at least gain a point. As mentioned above, points are not as important now that Edmonton is no longer in a position to push. That said, their record of staying in games until very late is a solid back story—it is something to watch for as the season rolls along.

REBEL REBEL

David Bowie spoke to the freaks and outcasts of the world, and I was one. For a young male looking for shock value, he was ideal (my Dad insisted that the album cover for Diamond Dogs not reside in our house in Maidstone, SK. Seriously) and unlike Alice Cooper and T. Rex and others, Bowie’s lyrics spoke to me. If you were an outcast in 1974—or I imagine 1984—you had to be drawn to Bowie. He reincarnated seemingly every year, going from Starman to Rebel Rebel to Young American to Heroes and beyond. A few years after our Diamond Dogs run in, my Dad and I watched a television show that featured Bowie singing ‘Little Drummer Boy’ with Bing Crosby, and we both could barely believe it. As with most things he touched, it was brilliant and original.

I don’t often get choked up about celebrity passings, suspect they have their issues same as us. Sometimes—John Candy, Princess Diana, Bowie—it hits hard and knocks the wind from you. Today is such a day. David Bowie meant a lot to me when I was 14, and he means a lot to me today. There aren’t many people in the world who have that kind of impact on anyone, without ever really knowing them.

The freaks and the outcasts lost a friend and a voice this morning. Segeln Helden.

diamond dogs

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy day on the show, as we get back to the action after a couple of weeks of sporadic duty. TSN1260, starting at 10. Scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. Ovechkin 500 making good time, how high can he go? Plus the Panthers and Dallas hits a wall.
  • Scott Zerr, TSN1260 and Oilers Nation. With a suspension to Matt Hendricks possible, is now the time to recall Zack Kassian? We’ll find out how far away he is now.
  • Sunil Agnihotri, Copper & Blue/The SuperFan. Oilers last night, what we can expect from this week and does he think they will finish 28-30?
  • Corey Graham, Oil Kings PBP. WHL trade deadline passes and the Oil Kings didn’t make a splash. Were the prices too low?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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PunjabiOil

RE: McDavid – if this were the playoffs, I think he would be playing. Perhaps even 1 or 2 weeks ago.

The circumstances (which I outlined in the first post) has lead management to err on the side of caution. Again, I’m okay with that.

Season ticket holders who are witnessing a 10th consecutive playoff miss (must be close to the record) may feel otherwise and may construe this cautious approach, rightly or wrongly, as waving the white flag.

lynn

John Chambers: Awesome.

I played on a beer league team with former NHL’er Ian White last year prior to him getting on with an AHL team, who had spent part of the previous season in some desolate city in the KHL.

“What was it like, Ian?” I asked him in the dressing room after he scored five and set up three more in an 8-7 win over Transcona.

“So boring.” He recalled. “You can’t go for coffee anywhere, you can’t rent a video. The internet sucks. The girls are ugly and don’t speak English. We finished our last game and I was on a plane within two hours over Siberia to make a long trip home. I’d rather play beer league in Winnipeg for no money than go back.”

And Yakimov went back for that, over a nice gig in California. Each has his taste.

John Chambers

RPG:
Ryan Whitney wrote this about playing in Russia. Awesome!

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/ryan-whitney-russia-khl/

Awesome.

I played on a beer league team with former NHL’er Ian White last year prior to him getting on with an AHL team, who had spent part of the previous season in some desolate city in the KHL.

“What was it like, Ian?” I asked him in the dressing room after he scored five and set up three more in an 8-7 win over Transcona.

“So boring.” He recalled. “You can’t go for coffee anywhere, you can’t rent a video. The internet sucks. The girls are ugly and don’t speak English. We finished our last game and I was on a plane within two hours over Siberia to make a long trip home. I’d rather play beer league in Winnipeg for no money than go back.”

lynn

Glad I didn’t have to listen to Danny Gallivan talk about a player’s Corsi stats. Hockey then was about watching and enjoying. Hockey has become a science.

Maybe that is why I watch less; read about the game the next day.

G Money

Bruce McCurdy: And to be able to look at players on different teams and get the same data for both, for and against, seems a step forward even from Gmoney’s brilliantly outstanding work.

OK, now I can cancel all those sad face icons!

Note that the scrapers and data mungers and chart/table generators that I’ve written can pull and chart all the play by play, roster, and and shift data from any game, and summarize it for any team.

In fact, my programs generate data for d pairs, forward lines, and 5 man units that nobody else is doing. Anywhere!

Nothing Oiler-specific is actually embedded in the code other than the name table that I built to handle duplicate names on a team now has Oiler nicknames in it as well, which is why you see “Drai” in my data summaries instead of “L. Draisaitl”.

If you want to see any specific data, for any specific game (regardless of team), let me know, very easy for me to pull the full set of charts and tables.

Also, if there’s other types of data that you are interested to see, I can probably add it, I literally get every NHL data point for every game. The data pages I publish have evolved quite a bit, partly because I’m endlessly looking for newer cooler ways of showing data, and partly through suggestions and requests.

Speaking of which: LT, I assume your after-game next day posts which have data summaries are something you have to build manually from multiple sources? FYI, I can almost certainly generate these for you completely automatically with almost no effort if you want! (exception being WOI-proprietary data like SCA and HDSC … though I believe Dangerous Fenwick is actually at least as good as both of them). Just let me know, happy to do that for you.

My current data workplan is: shot distance arena bias fix (this week) -> cumulative data (next week) -> WOWYs for Dangerous Fenwicks (the week after that).

OF17

Problem with Shattenkirk is I don’t think we have the pieces to get him. The Blues are shopping him because of salary concerns, which means that Nuge and Eberle are out barring making the deal more complex, and the only low-salaried offensive piece we have that we’d want to give up is Yakupov, who I don’t think has as much value as Drouin. So I’m not sure we’d be able to get Shattenkirk, even though he would be an almost ideal addition.

CrazyCoach

sliderule: I would say that most hits are made after the puck has already been passed or dumped.
I have absolutely no evidence to confirm my assertion .

Then in that case a message is definitely being sent, and there’s nothing wrong with that.

I know when I played forward, my first shift, I would always hammer someone. Never did damage to anyone, but it sure kept my head up the rest of the game.

CrazyCoach

John Chambers: My question to the crowd is: is there concern about Nurse hitting his potential (Reinhart’s is undoubtedly in question), and would Chiarelli have been better off trading Nurse for a more proven, if older and more expensive, defensemen to hedge the risk of enduring the learning curve and having to develop blueliners through years of on-the-job training.
Or is staying patient the best way to improve our blue? I was convinced of this, but watching Nurse struggle as he has, has diminished my expectation of the player’s ceiling.

I would be on the side of hanging on to Nurse and letting him develop. I don’t think he should be in the NHL right now, and 22-25 minutes a night is not the best. He is the best prospect in the system right now and I cold see him being an Oilers mainstay for 10 seasons.

Of course I am basing my thoughts on his potential which right now boils down to a couple nice plays per game, but some wild head on a swivel moments as well.

I also know that the widely accepted notion in hockey circles is that defensemen take the longest to develop due to the need for physical maturation and a wide range of cognition skills. As anyone who has ever played the position knows, it is a delicate balance and involves timing that can only be developed through practice.

Those are my thoughts.

theres oil in virginia

David Bowie meant a lot to me when I was 14, and he means a lot to me today. There aren’t many people in the world who have that kind of impact on anyone, without ever really knowing them.

I know what you mean. I’ve got a list too, Bowie isn’t on it, but I’m a bit younger. It’s a funny thing how you know them, but they don’t know you. Cheers.

Thor762

Mr Lowetide, what in your opinion is Shattenkirk worth to the Oilers? If the Blues might be considering trading him for scoring help as according to the TSN link. RH shot, powerplay specialist, excellent puck moving, 26 year old defenceman to me screams OILERS NEED in about 22 different languages. Even at an overpay price.

http://www.tsn.ca/mondaymustread-will-the-blues-move-shattenkirk-for-scoring-help-1.421109

lynn

Lowetide: Probably being sent down in anticipation of an Oilers roster move (activating Yakupov). Either way, I think the stigma of playing in the ECHL is way overblown. He is getting at-bats, that is a big item. It also tells me Marco Roy outplayed him. Beyond that, I am always interesting to know why people consider players in the first year of entry-level deals as no longer prospects. Hope you have more patience with your kids!

I respect your opinion. Chase has also been outplayed by Josh Currie, an ECHLer; and Braden Christoffer, on an AHL contract; besides being outplayed by Marco Roy, also on an AHL contract.

I didn’t have kids, by choice, but I had two cats, and they taught me many lessons in life.

I hope Greg Chase makes the Oilers in the future–Norfolk to Edmonton is a long climb.

thelongdark

RPG:
Ryan Whitney wrote this about playing in Russia. Awesome!

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/ryan-whitney-russia-khl/

Excellent!

godot10

speeds:
What would you be willing to give up for Drouin, if you were in Chia’s shoes?

All the Oilers tradeable assets should be used on improving the D.

The Oilers already have too many young forwards learning how to play without the puck. They don’t need another.

LadiesloveSmid

lynn,

he had 7P in 19 games, that’s fine to me. Play top line and PP1 in Norfolk.

scoring at a better clip than our boy Klimchuk in Stockton

Oddspell

northof51: Admittedly, I am not 100% sure of where the offensive zone begins and ends. I was always taught that to put myself “onside”, I had get both of my skates into white ice that makes up the neutral zone…

Based on the call last night, however, the offensive zone appears to begin on what was Florida’s white ice. If it was moved to be the start of the blue (as Edmonton attacked), Hall’s goal stands, no?

Seems like a small change that might add a few more goals here and there.

I believe there needs to be white ice between the puck and the blue line to be onside.

sliderule

northof51,

The blue line is considered to be part of whatever zone puck is in.

Thus Leon had to advance the puck to the white zone before any oiler entered.

speeds

What would you be willing to give up for Drouin, if you were in Chia’s shoes?

lynn

Greg Chase has been returned to the Norfolk Admirals by the Bakersfield Condors. The Condors are a team with injury problems. What does that say about Chase? Is he still a prospect? Maybe I’m being too harsh: players could be returning the Condors’ roster.

Anyway, Chase hasn’t bumped anyone from the Condors’ roster.

Source: https://twitter.com/Condors/status/686653840922288128

719

RPG:
Ryan Whitney wrote this about playing in Russia. Awesome!

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/ryan-whitney-russia-khl/

Great Read

northof51

Bruce McCurdy: I think they got it pretty right, myself. I would hate to see another gimmick strip away a fundamental tenet of the game, such as “no more offsides”. I don’t want rugby on ice, but i don’t want lacrosse either.

Admittedly, I am not 100% sure of where the offensive zone begins and ends. I was always taught that to put myself “onside”, I had get both of my skates into white ice that makes up the neutral zone…

Based on the call last night, however, the offensive zone appears to begin on what was Florida’s white ice. If it was moved to be the start of the blue (as Edmonton attacked), Hall’s goal stands, no?

Seems like a small change that might add a few more goals here and there.

stevezie

RPG:
Ryan Whitney wrote this about playing in Russia. Awesome!

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/ryan-whitney-russia-khl/

Read this

RPG

I never would have guessed Klef had a staph infection, but it most certainly explains a lot.

godot10

If Nurse is playing 15-20 minutes in the NHL, there is no reason to send him down.

He is going to be a rookie sometime. Get the rookie mistakes out of the way this year. He is more ready to play assertively than Reinhart (who was tentative in his decision making at the NHL level).

Because of that Nurse is more ready at the moment for the NHL than Reinhart.

Rookie D are going to make mistakes.

Nurse seems to take his mistakes in stride. As long as he is getting playing time, the NHL is the better place for him.

Reinhart and Osterle should both get a pretty good look after the trade deadline.

RPG

Ryan Whitney wrote this about playing in Russia. Awesome!

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/ryan-whitney-russia-khl/

John Chambers

Thanks for the balanced responses, all.

I can see why teams are hesitant to draft defensemen with high picks. Not only do they take a long time to learn their craft, but they experience a lower success rate than forwards do. I’m not sure Florida drafts Gudbrandson ahead of Johanson in a re-draft.

It seems though that drafted defensemen have a really high value as they exit Junior and after they’ve starred at the WJC or Memorial Cup. From there they have 2-3 years of professional development until they matriculate into top-4 NHL D – and this might be when their trade value is highest, hence our ability to trade Nurse in a package for Hamilton, or the high cost of obtaining Reinhart.

Interesting sinusodal value that D have from draft through to their eventual growth into NHL D, and very puzzling that a guy like Brandon Gormley wouldn’t be attractive to any NHL teams given the miles of development already invested in him.

Bruce McCurdy

commonfan14: Did some research on the history of it, and the rule was apparently brought in in 1930 specifically to REDUCE scoring after a huge boom that resulted from the advent of the forward pass.

Before 1929 there was no forward passing & they were basically applying rugby rules on ice. As systems got better, scoring dried up, to the point that in 1928-29 George Hainsworth had 22 shutouts in 44 games and an 0.98 GAA and scoring league-wide was at what remains a historic low.

It was brought in midway through the 1929-30 season after an initial rule change to allow forward passing over-corrected the initial problem. This from a web page on major NHL rule changes:

“1929-30 – Forward passing permitted inside all three zones but not permitted across either blue line. ”

“December 21,1929 – Forward passing rules instituted at the beginning of the 1929-30 season more than doubled number of goals scored. Partway through the season, these rules were further amended to read, “No attacking player allowed to precede the play when entering the opposing defensive zone.” This is similar to modern offside rule.”

… and this from the next season:

“A further refinement of the offside rule stated that the puck must first be propelled into the attacking zone before any player of the attacking side can enter that zone; for infringement of this rule a faceoff to take place at the spot where the infraction took place.”

It’s been a while since i read about that era but my recollection is that there was a lot of goal-sucking, that if the team got the puck across the blueline they could then feed the guy who had been hanging out in the zone. So they brought in the rule about attacking players not allowed to precede the puck. But it was in reaction to another major rule change.

I think they got it pretty right, myself. I would hate to see another gimmick strip away a fundamental tenet of the game, such as “no more offsides”. I don’t want rugby on ice, but i don’t want lacrosse either.

Quinlan

At this point, I think it’s fair to say that the Oilers are in a position where it makes sense to offer huge money to Byfuglien, and/or substantially sweeten the pot in the Hamonic sweepstakes.

If we have cap concerns with signing Byfuglien, there are plenty of players to move out.

Two jobs for Peter Chiarelli before next season:

1) Open up cap space for the future. Fayne, Pouliot, Purcell, Schultz, Nikitin, Ference, Korpikoski, Hendricks, Letestu represent around 30M(!) in cap space. Of all those players, I think Purcell (today) contributes most to winning. Another player can be found to do his job though.

2) Use that cap space to acquire some game changers. I’m thinking primarily of Dustin Byfuglien here, but the 3rd line could stand to be revamped, and the 4th line should be more affordable than it currently is (Hendricks, Korpikoski, Letestu). If Shattenkirk can be had, then go for it. Make your choice, and sign him long-term.

I’d be willing to give Byfuglien 7M X 7 years. I wouldn’t like it. But that’s the position the Oilers find themselves in.

LadiesloveSmid

Nurse’s problem is that he’s 20 and is making the mistakes he should be making in the minors, on the big team. Call up Reinhart and send down Nurse for a dozen games.

Pechetr

Weighting for more,

I would argue that they aren’t asking for violence per se but “pushback” The Oilers have played soft for far too long, been bullied, pushed around and subsequently injured a great deal because every team in the league takes liberties with them with no fear of reprisal. You don’t have to play dirty to have a spine and a pack mentality. Far too often we have seen an Oilers player crumpled on the ice in a heap with not another Oiler in sight. I point to McDavid’s injury as an example. We can argue whether or not the play was clean or dirty, but not a single Oiler player responded with so much as a face wash. Taylor Hall has been crushed several times and injured as a result with no defense from his team mates. I guarantee other teams will continue to target our skill if there is no back up waiting to level the playing field. What happens next time McDavid goes down to a questionable hit? Will anyone respond? It is Ales Hemsky all over again.

frjohnk

Bruce McCurdy: PS: Isn’t BtN shot distance data for a player’s own shots?

yes.

Bruce McCurdy

PS: Isn’t BtN shot distance data for a player’s own shots? Unless I’m misreading the Finnish data, it is for all on-ice shots. If it isn’t, then somebody needs to explain to me how one accrues the “against” figures.

sliderule

Bruce McCurdy,

That is not good.

It seems to me that he had a bad skate cut that got infected when he was in SEL

Bruce McCurdy

frjohnk: I have not seen “average shot distance against” but there is “average shot distance for” at behind the net.
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_shot_statistics.php?c=0+1+3+5+7+9+10+11+12+13&ds=13&f5=

Yeah, it is the juxtaposition of the two that I find interesting. I don’t agree quite with MacT’s statement “it’s not what you make but what you leave” but I would make the case “it’s about what you make AND what you leave”.

This data combined with Corsi (or my preference, shots, so we are measuring the same events) gives a multi-dimensional view at both ends of the rink. A statement that “Player A’s team gets 55% of the shots while he’s on the ice, AND they are 10% closer to the net on average” is a very different statement from ” “Player A’s team gets 55% of the shots while he’s on the ice, BUT they are 10% further from the net on average”. In one case you have two factors that amplify each other, in the other they cancel each other out to some degree.

Either way you can plot a data point for [SF%, SFAD/SAAD] on a graph rather than a number line.

In the case of Puljujarvi and Laine, both showed really well by both metrics — though of course there remains plenty of context we don’t have. But at face value that shot data is pretty positive for them, and in two dimensions. And to be able to look at players on different teams and get the same data for both, for and against, seems a step forward even from Gmoney’s brilliantly outstanding work. 🙂

judgedrude

Offer sheet remains my weapon of choice.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQ7z57qrZU8

sliderule

CrazyCoach,

I would say that most hits are made after the puck has already been passed or dumped.

I have absolutely no evidence to confirm my assertion .?

Bruce McCurdy

Gregor says Klefbom has a staph infection.

[…] Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to discuss the Oilers. Audio […]

böök¡je

G Money: Geez, Bruce, I must give you not one, but MULTIPLE sad faces:

I publish those for every defender and every defensive pairing on the Oilers after every game.I also use those numbers as part of the process for calculating Dangerous Fenwick, which is in the end, Fenwick WITH shot distance and shot type context built right into the statistic!

Once Bruce got all famous with his Edmonton Journal blog, he started to ignore us little people holding the fort here at LT’s. I’m pretty sure he just sends his intern over here every so often to make a few comments just to keep everyone happy.

Well, Bruce, it isn’t working (intern reading this please let Bruce know) – Gmoney sad!

Rondo

Bag of Pucks,

George Jonas and David Bowie died yesterday.

Bruce McCurdy

Psyche:
Bruce McCurdy,

I’m sorry, but that statement creates more questions for me.

The bone is likely healed. Are they concerned with upper body strength not being optimal for play? I imagine McDavid lost shoulder, chest and back muscle while recovering. If that’s the case – why not share that information? I don’t see it being harmful.

I’m pretty satisfied with “we have determined he will be physically unable to play” as explanation enough. If Klefbom deserves “privacy” w.r.t. his injury, isn’t McDavid entitled to a little? Or do we want “the fourth screw from the outside got bent a little and was difficult to extract”?

Bruce McCurdy

frjohnk: Funny that in that article, there is a mention of Laine being in a comparison to Ovechkin. Laine is big, skilled and has a great shot not unlike Ovie.At one time in the final, he obliterated a Russian not unlike Ovie. I thought that during the WJC’s a few times.

I might be reaching as there is ALOT OF TRACK TO GO but in time, Laine could become the greatest goal scorer….ever

I loved Laine’s play in that tourney. Really liked his heavy right-handed shot off the left wing. (Private to Woodguy: are you OK with that? Or should wingers play on their strong side?)

Not sure if he plays LW all the time or simply that was a result of having two right-shooting wingers on the top line. But he sure looked comfortable over there.

Bruce McCurdy

godot10: Gmoney is extremely disappointed in you.

Fair. I was talking about seeing it presented in that matter with other stats from some other league. But you are of course correct that Gmoney has done some excellent work in this area. I should have chosen my words more carefully.

So let’s do that now: “Nice to see Gmoney-type statistical analysis creeping in to the wider media.”

Sorry, G!

raventalon40

Just an idea for a 3-way trade:

Eberle+Lander to St Louis (re-unite Lander with Paajarvi)
Shatterkirk+Schultz toNYI (replace Hamonic a warm body with potential for injured Boychuk)
Hamonic+Lee+pick to Oilers (Oilers get their defensive D and right age for the core)

What say you? Is this a team that can challenge for the last spot?

Hall-Draisaitl-Purcell
Pouliot-McDavid-Yakupov
Lee-RNH-Kassian
Hendricks-Letestu-Korpikoski

Sekera-Fayne
Klefbom-Hamonic
Davidson-Gryba
Nurse

Pouzar

John Chambers:
Open question about Darnell Nurse:
This is obviously a player we need to develop into his potential as a 22-25 min / night defender who consistently makes smart, athletic plays, in order for the team to become a contender.

But can he?

This past summer Nurse was unanimously deemed untradeable. And rightfully so – he is the best defensive prospect in the system since … forever. Combined with Reinhart, the future of the Oilers’ D seemed bright with big, strong, intelligent, puck-moving blueliners just entering their 20’s.

But in hindsight, if we could’ve traded Nurse in a package for Dougie Hamilton, and if we could’ve similarly acquired Hamonic instead of Reinhart, would that have been a better plan for both current AND future?

My question to the crowd is: is there concern about Nurse hitting his potential (Reinhart’s is undoubtedly in question), and would Chiarelli have been better off trading Nurse for a more proven, if older and more expensive, defensemen to hedge the risk of enduring the learning curve and having to develop blueliners through years of on-the-job training.

Or is staying patient the best way to improve our blue? I was convinced of this, but watching Nurse struggle as he has, has diminished my expectation of the player’s ceiling.

Interested in the blogosphere’s thoughts …

Not a single worry here at all. Not one. It’s the flashes you have to look at. The one sequence a few games ago where he rushed back to his own zone, rubbed the guy out behind his own net, took the puck and rushed up the ice and started a beautiful 3 way passing play culminating in a Pouliot goal. The whole entire sequence was such a high end display of skill I would guess there are only a small percentage of d-men in the league could pull it off. He is nowhere near a finished product. I expect a dominate #1 D minutes eater. I remember Klef at this age in the AHL and the guy oozed potential but he was lost at times positionally. I’d say without a doubt Nurse looks better at the same age from my viewings of Klef in OKC. In a limited sample size (17 games) Oscar put up very similar possession numbers to Nurse in the NHL. Lots of improvement to be had here and I predict a similar trajectory to Oscar.

Factotum

godot10: …the average recovery time (i.e. return to activity) for a broken collarbone is 10 weeks…which is right before the all-star break.

Actually, 10 weeks post-surgery will be the day after tomorrow (as Kmart pointed out), but I agree with what you’re saying in principle. By waiting 11 more days, you can buy Connor three more weeks of rehab/strengthening time. Obviously the Oilers have decided that’s a reasonable trade-off, and I too am perfectly ok with it.

commonfan29

The Drai review from last night got me thinking about how nutty it is that the NHL is cracking down on offsides so hard with the coach’s challenge. Also got me thinking about the rule itself.

Did some research on the history of it, and the rule was apparently brought in in 1930 specifically to REDUCE scoring after a huge boom that resulted from the advent of the forward pass.

In a league that’s looking all over for ways to increase scoring, why not have a look at junking a rule that was brought in to solve a “too many goals” problem form 85 years ago?

Instead of whistling offensive rushes dead for no real reason, why not do away with the blue lines entirely and encourage more offense?

What would be the horrible result of this? Rampant cherry-picking? I doubt coaches would allow guys to throw away their defensive responsibilities entirely to just go hang out in the offensive zone all game.

And even if you did get some cherry-picking , why would that be a bad thing? You’d get essentially a powerplay situation at one end and a potential home-run break on the other end. Both of those things sound exciting to me as a fan.

I mean, I’m not really even joking about this. Is there a really good reason for keeping the offside rule other than, “that’s how we’ve always done it” (it isn’t) or “you’d get guys cherry-picking” (who cares)?

Would junking the blue lines increase or decrease scoring, and would it make the games more exciting or less exciting?

These seem like good questions to be asked.

speeds

John Chambers:
Open question about Darnell Nurse:
This is obviously a player we need to develop into his potential as a 22-25 min / night defender who consistently makes smart, athletic plays, in order for the team to become a contender.

But can he?

This past summer Nurse was unanimously deemed untradeable. And rightfully so – he is the best defensive prospect in the system since … forever. Combined with Reinhart, the future of the Oilers’ D seemed bright with big, strong, intelligent, puck-moving blueliners just entering their 20’s.

But in hindsight, if we could’ve traded Nurse in a package for Dougie Hamilton, and if we could’ve similarly acquired Hamonic instead of Reinhart, would that have been a better plan for both current AND future?

My question to the crowd is: is there concern about Nurse hitting his potential (Reinhart’s is undoubtedly in question), and would Chiarelli have been better off trading Nurse for a more proven, if older and more expensive, defensemen to hedge the risk of enduring the learning curve and having to develop blueliners through years of on-the-job training.

Or is staying patient the best way to improve our blue? I was convinced of this, but watching Nurse struggle as he has, has diminished my expectation of the player’s ceiling.

Interested in the blogosphere’s thoughts …

He was not unanimously deemed untradeable – I would have moved him in a deal for Hamilton (right or wrong) depending on the contract Hamilton would have signed, and I don’t think I was the only one around here.

As for trading Nurse, I would still look at it but I also wouldn’t be horribly concerned that he’s struggled recently (if he has, I’ve only seen a few games in the last month), he’s a young D, many of them do.

frjohnk

russ99: As big of a problem I have with the ideal that hitting wins games, I have just as big of a problem with the ideal that possession wins games.

Take a look at this.

http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2015/01/shot-attempt-data-doesnt-predict-who.html