On a day like this one, Oilers fans everywhere have an extreme sense of dread. Saturday. National television. Calgary Flames. The past informs the future, so we can expect misery and pestilence and ruin. Maybe they will run a Robyn Regehr highlight package featuring, of course, Ales Hemsky. If ‘Saturday Night Oilers’ were a country song, there would be no survivors—not even Merle. When this thing turns, and it will (right?), I am going to do my Joe Thornton impersonation after every Saturday night Oilers win, in public or private. I may need bail money.
DONNER PARTY, YEAR OVER YEAR
- Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
- Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
- Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
- Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
- Oilers in December 2014: 2-8-4
- Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1
- Oilers in January 2015: 5-7-1
- Oilers in January 2016: 2-2-2
- Oilers after 45 in 2014-15: 10-26-9, 29 points (-51 GD)
- Oilers after 45 in 2015-16: 17-23-5, 39 points (-23 GD)
I think we are all just waiting for McDavid to return now—wouldn’t it be nice if he showed up tonight and scored three?—and one hopes the Oilers can get through January with around a point per game. A year ago in G46, they won in a shootout in Sunrise.
DEFENSE, 2015-16
- Brandon Davidson just keeps on laying pipe in a long, straight line. He is a fantastic rookie, it’s like he is 23 going on 30. I don’t know the scout who argued for him, but that man deserves a raise—so does the player.
- Oscar Klefbom could be part of a very nice run in the final 30 games of the season, or we may not see him until October. Man, I would love to see him on Rexall ice tonight, too.
- Andrej Sekera looks exactly like Jeff Petry used to, a man drowning without a life line. I hope the Oilers can find him some help, or at the very least play Mark Fayne with him every night.
- Eric Gryba probably doesn’t fit long term, unless he is the No. 7 D next season. One would think an NHL team would invest a pick after No. 100 overall on him at the deadline.
- Justin Schultz is playing as well as I have seen him in some time over the last five games or so. He is never going to be a good defender, but his passing is better and he is in a zone offensively. Is it enough to get a third-round pick for him?
- Darnell Nurse had a nice game against San Jose, he was high-event but showed the kind of ability that got him drafted so high back in 2013. Fast-track continues tonight.
- Mark Fayne looks good in all the areas I pay attention to (Corsi, Corsi Rel) and his SCA/60 5×5 number is improving, too. I can’t believe the Oilers wouldn’t be able to find a willing trade partner—but, as I have said many times, it also makes sense to keep him for next season. If Fayne is your No. 7D to start the season, you have a damned good defense. Right now he is top pairing and that seems right.
I have been monitoring the Corsi For 5×5/60 for three defenders since Nurse came off the Sekera pairing. Despite playing significant minutes, Nurse is in fact rising from his previous levels—indicating the Oilers pushed as far as they could, and then (correctly) identified when things got overwhelming:
- Nurse before/after the shuffle: 43.79/45.45 (Source)
- Davidson before/after the shuffle: 53.03/52.09 (Source)
- Sekera before/after the shuffle: 46.07/46.23 (Source)
CENTERS, 2015-16
- Leon Draisaitl has been a pure joy this season. I think his contributions to this team in 2015-16—remember he started in the minors—have to rank him as one of the best recalls from the AHL in team history. A 35, 10-24-34 center playing G46 after starting the year in Bakersfield.
- Connor McDavid is less than a month away from playing NHL hockey again!
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is not having the season he posted one year ago, but I still maintain he is a very important player for this team. If they trade him—and the Oilers appear to have been in conversation about him—an enormous amount of pressure falls on two young men with under 100 games in the NHL, combined. He is not on pace for 20 goals, but will hit 50 points if he continues as he did in the first half of the season.
- Anton Lander’s numbers outside the offense aren’t terrible, and he does a lot of good things for this team. I don’t think he will make it as an Oiler, and believe foot speed (and this year’s offense) is what will keep PC and Todd McLellan from keeping him for 2016-17.
- Mark Letestu has had a weird year, I can remember a bunch of scoring chances he didn’t cash but he is on track to score over 20 points from the roster hinterlands.
- A few notes about my Nuge item last night, including the fact we have discussed it. I think Peter Chiarelli is a very smart guy, and in most cases would give him the benefit of the doubt. Have to tell you, I go into this Nuge business highly skeptical about getting full return. The chances of this trade (should it happen) being one we remember in a bad way is extremely high. Jmo. Chiarelli still hasn’t had the ‘saw him good’ Nuge and that is a major concern. How patient will he be? Come on Nuge! A big game may go a long way, and I don’t think this is over.
WINGERS, 2015-16
- Taylor Hall’s Individual High-Danger Scoring Chance number is probably the most impressive number on all of these lists. He has not been himself lately, but if he was saving up the points for tonight I will forgive him. Expect 75 points or more.
- Jordan Eberle is coming on now, he should be hitting the 20-goal mark some time in March and he might hit 50 points again.
- Benoit Pouliot is on a 20-goal pace and Teddy Purcell will get close to 45 points, but the big question is will one (or both) be here after the deadline? Purcell might be the most valuable player PC has to trade this year.
- Nail Yakupov had such a good game I can’t wait to see him play again. Fun player.
- Zack Kassian gave a hilarious interview after the first period, hopefully he cashes tonight and helps bring good luck on a Saturday night.
CHIARELI AT THE DEADLINE
Lots of work to do, and remember he is aggressive at the trade deadline—his first one saw a major overhaul on defense. Let’s revisit that for a sec:
- February 10, 2007: Bruins trade D Brad Stuart and F Wayne Primeau to the Calgary Flames for D Andrew Ference and F Chuck Kobasew. Chiarelli: “It became evident that when I wasn’t having success signing Brad that I was going to have to trade Brad. Part of what we have to do is preserve the assets of players that are unrestricted. Chuck is 24 and Andrew is 27. They add some youth and energy, which we want to add to this team.”
- February 27, 2007: Bruins trade D Paul Mara to the NY Rangers for D Aaron Ward.
- February 27, 2007: Bruins trade R Brad Boyes to St. Louis for D Dennis Wideman.
- Chiarelli on the February trades: “Part of the rationale in the [Brad Stuart] deal and these two deals was to have players who can help us now, in the short term and the mid term. I feel we have the depth, both in unsigned draft choices and in Providence. For example, David Krejci came up, and game to game, he played better. So that’s just the glimpse of the depth we have.”
Chiarelli moved off Mara fairly quickly, wonder if we see any movement on his hires this early. I think we are far enough into the season to give some grades on his summer work:
- G Cam Talbot (I think they should be talking contract now. A good goalie in front of a poor D)
- G Anders Nilsson (Not certain he is the long term solution, but would bring him back)
- G Eetu Laurikainen (He has enjoyed a solid-to-excellent year)
- D Andrej Sekera (Oilers most reliable and complete veteran defenseman)
- D Eric Gryba (Has delivered in his role)
- D Griffin Reinhart (Injuries and minors so far this season)
- C Connor McDavid (Devastating injury major story on the year)
- C Mark Letestu (Useful player, does a variety of things well)
- L Lauri Korpikoski (Scoring well, his checking work is checkered)
I believe the Talbot, Sekera and Letestu moves were quality and did in fact address substantial need, your mileage may vary. After that, there are varying degrees of minor success and failure, with McDavid obviously a different chapter altogether. When you enter a summer with seven things to do, does getting three of them locked down represent success? We have all summer to discuss, maybe the Kassian addition and whatever is done at the deadline will skew the view. Right now? 70 percent. I like the deals mentioned, but the Reinhart and Gordon trades have major concerns attached and potentially long-term progress has been impeded. We can’t just ignore that aspect of his early Oilers record. If I added in the strange decisions around the Schultz buyout window the grade would be lower.
LINES AND PAIRINGS
- Hall—Nugent-Hopkins—Pakarinen
- Pouliot—Draisaitl—Eberle
- Purcell—Letestu—Kassian
- Korpikoski—Lander—Yakupov
- Sekera—Fayne
- Nurse—Schultz
- Davidson—Gryba
- Talbot
I don’t expect those lines to stay, but hope the Sekera-Fayne pairing lasts the evening. I saw the Flames on Thursday night, they are electric and Edmonton has two rookies, two slow guys on defense. It will be important to actually watch the game, the commentary will be pro-Flames no matter the score. I used to love Saturday night against Calgary and have reached the point where alternate plans are at the ready. A man can only take so much from his favorite team in one lifetime, and losing to the Flames on Saturday night brings out the worst in me. The dog has been warned, as have you. I begin the day in a mood most foul, for my own protection. Tabernac Saturday is before us. Go you Oilers, win this one for the fans and we won’t be pissed at you until at least Monday. Godspeed.
One mistake, I saw that too. However I saw the 20 good solid plays he made. Not sure you see the good.
Amen. My in-laws hunted/guided in the West Country for decades. So true.
NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,
I should take photography folks on my hunting trips – Livingston, Porcupine Hills, Waldron Grazing Lease, Red Deer river badlands, Devils Head (sheep hunting is brutal), Peace River. If you spend as much time in the backcountry as I do you, you get a sense for men like Hugh Glass, and even more respect for first people’s who thrived in the incredibly harsh landscape that is the Rockies. I often think of the contrast of our lives in Alberta now, from early settlers. Most of us spend a few days on the side of a mountain with our gore-tex, propane stoves and down sleeping bags and think we’ve conquered something. The trajectory from that early world to today, each and every time I am out there I’m reminded, is incredibly fragile. Anytime a filmmaker or an actor can capture that, I’ll gladly donate my $20…..even if it’s Load-of-DiCrapio.
The one true story that needs to be captured on film is David Thompson’s. Imagine mapping nearly all of Western North America from Winnipeg to as far north as Yellowknife down the Columbia to Portland. On foot and canoe. Jeebus.
Woodguy,
3 yr deal for Talbot is perfect, makes Sunday after a Tabernac Saturday HNiC win feel that much better.
Now, about this defence……
I have not seen it but i am glad it’s predictable, it is a true story. As someone who has read about Hugh Glass this makes me more excited to see it and that they did not change the story.
PhrankLee,
Petry is an elite skater, just wished he used it to jump into the play a bit more. Where Hamonic shines is in the dzone, he rarely has those mind cramps Petry has and once in possession he makes consistently smart decisions about puck placement.
Wouldn’t it be nice if we could have both players ?
Don’t spoil my Sunday by bringing up Petry ?
I hope MacT stubs his toe today.
As others said below, there are not many starter jobs open in the NHL.
He’s also not in a position to look a gift horse in the mouth, he’s never had a big paycheque in the NHL.
If you offer him $10MM over 3 years I can’t see him turning it down.
Many starters sign for that much on their first starter contracts.
Darren Dreger;
The Oilers are believed to be close on a multi year extension for goaltender, Cam Talbot.
I’m not sure about Hamonic coming in and displacing every D we have so it all rhymes.
When I last looked at them side by side (2 weeks ago on woi, damn) Petry and Hamonic were eerily similar.
I’ve watched both play and am convinced Petry is a better skater.
So would Petry injected into the lineup also knock everyone down a peg to where they should be?
I don’t know the answer but we can find out together today on Oceans Alive…
I had a late night at work. It was a wonderful evening at the rink I’m happy to report.
My takeaways from tonight as experienced through here and The Nation are thrice:
1) Our team played well enough to win.
2) The Nuge should remain for another day.
3)The bet is on for TALBOT.
Then I stopped at NHL.com for a look at the boxscore. Quick and easy + Old fashioned news for a tired mind. This is what i saw:
Almost all of our guys were in on the game. Look at the distribution of shots ( so many of our guys had 2+) and, ice-time (everyone over 10min). Man TMac was honest.
Maybe Hartley was out coached tonight?
Glorious Tabernac Saturday to you all.
P.S: Hall plays for the cup.
NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,
Being an actor/director/ teacher. I do agree with you in a way.
Anyone who hasn’t acted doesn’t understand the insane difficulty of emoting with a camera in your face and other distractions. I know Leo has been nominated before ( and I don’t think worthy… Except for his first (Gilbert grape) and then every pick was better than tommy lee (and I like TMJ.. just not in this part)
Tom Hardy was off th charts, and I cat even imagine as a theatre actor/director what Leo did in that performance. It was brilliant
I think he would probably re-sign here if he gets up to ~50 games played and can keep a ~.916 save percentage. Him and his agent are probably thankful the Oilers gave him a change to be a starter and the only places with open spaces (for starters) are really just Carolina, Calgary, and Toronto.
St. Louis probably just runs with Allen. Maybe Arizona or Vancouver if they manage to dump one of their pricey goaltenders but I can’t see either Smith or Miller being moved.
I think I’d be okay with 3 x 3 for Talbot and with his dip in play near the beginning of the season they’re probably not going to shoot for the stars on this contract.
Also, I loved The Revenant. Beautiful movie.
But dat eyeglow.
Would you re-sign here if you are Talbot? I mean if his save percentage keeps going up. If I’m him, I wait until the offseaosn to sell my services to a St.Louis or another good club with known goaltending issues.
Talbot’s save percentage goes up to .914 and all of the sudden I’m flooded with all these feelings.
Also, I am once again a fan of Brandon Davidson and Teddy Purcell.
This is a very strong point made by Mike.
Here is my take on fighting & winning from a couple of years ago.
http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/cult-of-hockey-player-grades-cam-talbot-guides-the-oilers-to-win-over-calgary-on-national-tv
#55 Mark Letestu, 6. Letestu carried a heavy load on the penalty kill and in the faceoff circle and carried it well. He won a whopping 20 of 26 faceoffs and played 4:27 with the Oilers down a man. Shots were 9-2 in Edmonton’s favour at evens when he was on the ice.
I think Letestu especially with his occasional offensive pinches is doing pretty good as Boyd Gordon replacement.
Tom Hardy is awesome, though
Jon’s grades and comments here are spot on:
Third Pairing
#25 Darnell Nurse, 2. Nurse was an absolute disaster early in the game and only got two shifts in the back half of the first period and less than 16 minutes overall in the game. He lost battles, he lost track of his man while watching the puck, and he froze and turned the puck over when he needed to make an outlet pass. He did steady out somewhat later in the game but then took a penalty in overtime.
#19 Justin Schultz, 3. Edmonton managed 29 shots to only 16 against when Schultz wasn’t on the ice; the numbers were four for and 12 against when he was out there. He improved tremendously when he was separated from Nurse in the back half of the game.
Source: http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/cult-of-hockey-player-grades-cam-talbot-guides-the-oilers-to-win-over-calgary-on-national-tv
don’t know if it was talked about but Marincin passed the puck right to Marchand in his own end for the GWG, played 12 minutes total
They force many plays which Tmac addressed in his comment. Hall leads the list. They need to take the chess game to the next level , and to sustain more O zone time. I hope Connor picks up on this and learns to pick his spots more, of course he has barely started.
I thought they played pretty well, the problems being with needing better guys in spots. Talbot was great
I find American A list ‘cult of personality’ actors sometimes surprise me with not being completely flat .
I was liking Gryba tonight until his slow read and react gave the other team a two on one from their own blue line.
And it was off a ozone faceoff.
Can’t remember seeing that before.
Man.
Someone needs to tell them that The Gords kill a puppy every time they do that.
Fantastic.
This is what most people don’t get.
Having your players play above their established proficiency level = Oilers since 2009
Having your players play at or below their established proficiency level = Playoffs.
The Oilers have about 8 forwards at their proficiency level, one Dmen (Klef when he is playing 2nd pair) and probably one goalie.
Adding Hamonic gives you probably 5 D at their proficiency level.
One top pair Dman does that.
Its like magic.
Its about the quality he will play against on Hall’s line you didn’t notice Yakapov losing his man in the slot for Calgary’s only goal. I thought besides the blunder that cost the goal tgat Yakapov and lander looked good together, but darn they have to start scoring the odd goal against the easiest competition.
I agree and another story is Nuge getting moved away from Hall, and thus also being moved away from Brodie and Giordiano and Nuge made good on that opportunity free wheeling in the second half of the game.
Hall looked lost in the supermarket tonight imo (and he still assisted on the only goal)
Fortunately we rarely have to say that.
Toddler post game audio
http://oilers.nhl.com/club/podcastplayer.htm?pid=98&iid=53651
On the lack of scoring
We have to understand that, the cuter we get, probably the odds of us scoring are going to diminish rather than increase…
We need to simplify, shoot the puck, and go get our noses dirty for a little bit
Or when he has decent linemates, particularly C help. The fact that he’s driving the bus on that line is great, except its our defacto 3/4? I don’t even know what to call that line.
Next game, I would run:
Hall-RNH-Eberle
Pouliot-Draisaitl-Yakupov
Kassian-Letestu-Purcell
Korp-Lander-Iiro
I mean, seriously, I know we are showcasing Purcell but is a 4th–>3rd round pick upgrade worth more than letting Yak rot on the bottom 6?
I attended the game. I’d like to preface what I’m about to post by saying that I’m a big fan of Hall, and that I think he’s been the MVP with a bullet so far this season. However, and my goodness, that was one stinker of a game he played against Cowtown. Might have been 8 giveaways? More? He created some, but not enough to make up for that.
Talbot. Man. What a first period. We’re down maybe 3-0 heading into the 2nd without him.
I agree. Di Caprio is a 100% hype job – over rated.
Oh I agree he’s not getting traded. However, it was only recently that it was leaked Chia would trade him (through Dreger). Given how relatively tight-lipped the organization’s been this season, my guess is that they’ve tried trading him and now they’re making a last push through the media to see if there are any takers. Since that leak was only a few days ago, that’s why I doubt they’re scratching him now.
Given what he has to be qualified for, I doubt the Oilers are going to find a taker, even if a team were interested in a reclamation project.
Yup, that will definitely be part of the work (the code for that is already built)!
Shot and distance and game flows and all that other fun stuff:
https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2016/01/17/g46-2016-01-16-oilers-vs-spits-flames-shot-and-distance-data/
The Oilers have played in 8 straight 1 goal games.
Their record: 3-3-2.
I guess if you just flipped a coin you’d say that would be about right.
But, their 3 wins were earned (ARI, CGY +/- CAR)
To get 0 out of 4 against the Floridian teams is downright unfair, though.
Add in Arizona game #2, not because they deserved to win, but because they should have won.
So, they should be sitting here with 5-2-1 if the hockey gods didn’t steal both wins out of the Florida teams, and the team didn’t fold like a cheap tent in the 3rd against Arizona. Instead of 5 games below Bettman .500, its 2, and we’re legitimately in playoff conversation territory again.
As always, its part youth, part awful fucking injury luck, part work ethic, and part unfair life as an Oiler hockey fan…
Note they also went 2-1-2 against 2(x2),3,4,6th place within division during this span.
I see that as a backhanded compliment to the Oilers. Didn’t see the game but talbot looked excellent in the highlights – he’s moving so fluidly now.
I am a big Yak fan. But that GA was on him as much as anyone, from the Calgary blue line onwards.
He’s better when he calms down and doesn’t try to do everything at 100 mph.
I would hazard to guess they have tried trading Shultz on 5000 different occasions with Hamonic being the latest. Nobody is trading for Shultz IMO.. I would assume the pro scouts are watching the same player we are. He also has back issues and they usually don’t just disappear.
He might get claimed on waivers or a trade may happen after he is waived ala Kassian/Scrivens.
Hmmm… Now that you can do cumulative DFAs, can you do DFA WOWYs for the season?
2nd straight game Yak is near 80% ES CF
Suck it Johnny!
That is all (and the best I can do at this point)
Hunt’s still on the roster to move in to his spot next game.
I doubt they scratch Schultz, though. Not until after the trade deadline if they’re holding out any hope of dealing him.
LT, why do you hate Smid so much?
Am I doing that right?
One interesting narrative I’m following/imagining: in Behind the B, we see Chiarelli watch some Bruins games, see a particular player good (Campbell?) for a few solid games in a row and talk openly about needing to get the ink dry on that extension. He must be thinking the same for Talbot right now, no? Also I thought it was interesting when Cassie Campbell mentioned that Talbot talked to Benoit Allaire around the time he seemed to get his game back in order. Goalies are confidence voodoo.
Gryba 24 minutes, 71% ES corsi. For fun: all situations (6.5 mins of PK, 0 PP), 55% CF.
Davidson 22.5 minutes, pretty close to the same.
Nurse played 17 minutes like he should, just at the expense of 3 other guys playing way above their heads.
Talbot continues his reemergence with a whale of a game (Hiller played great, too).
Let’s see some more damn scoring.
I will have the shot and danger data up in a few minutes.
But the Nurse/Schultz pairing this game was one of the worst I’ve ever seen (123 DFA/60 in 5 minutes).
Once they were separated, the Nurse/Gryba pairing was one of the best I’ve ever seen (1.7 DFA/60 in 7 minutes).
Loved the ice time for the D. Would have been better if Gryba and Fayne’s ice time were reversed but otherwise he finally got it right. Now stick with it coach.
That has to be right up there with some of the worst Jultzing I have ever seen during that first period.. In no way was he teaching Nurse anything of merit. I guess this coach wanted to see it live rather than watch the video last summer.
Play Sekera 24 mins a night plus. Play Fayne 20 mins a night.They looked great tonight to my eye.
I see a healthy scratch for Jultz in the very near future.
NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,
Where can i check his ice in the 2nd period?
I barely noticed him at the start of that period?