MORNINGTOWN

by Lowetide

My three favorite games by the Oilers this season (In Calgary, at home to Montreal and the Rangers on Sather night) involved overcoming difficulties and pushing the river when the opportunity arose. The man games lost is a part of the story of this season, and because of it (imo), games like those three disappeared (mostly) after early December. If Edmonton was a winner in January, fans knew to look for Cam Talbot to have a big game. The last 32 games of this season need more balance, more control, more sustained possession and better special teams—and nights when this team can push the river. Connor McDavid should help some of that, one hopes the return of Brandon Davidson and Oscar Klefbom stills the waters in the defensive zone. All bound for Morningtown, many miles away.

oesterle williams

JANUARY CONDORS

I am always struck by the second half of an AHL season. For some reason, it seems the rubber hits the road and prospects begin to either find the range or fade away. Here are the numbers for January:

  1. Jordan Oesterle 10, 2-5-7 (20 shots)
  2. Josh Winquist 6, 4-2-6 (19 shots)
  3. Ryan Hamilton 10, 3-3-6 (32 shots)
  4. Andrew Miller 8, 2-4-6 (20 shots)
  5. Tyler Pitlick 6, 3-2-5 (19 shots)
  6. Joey Laleggia 6, 3-2-5 (8 shots)
  7. Matt Ford 8, 3-2-5 (24 shots)
  8. Rob Klinkhammer 3, 3-1-4 (10 shots)
  9. Jujhar Khaira 5, 1-3-4 (10 shots)
  10. Marco Roy 10, 2-2-4 (12 shots)
  11. C Josh Currie 10, 0-3-3 (17 shots)
  12. David Musil 10, 0-3-3 (7 shots)
  13. Brad Hunt 1, 0-2-2 (5 shots)
  14. Zack Kassian 5, 1-1-2 (11 shots)
  15. Griffin Reinhart 8, 1-1-2 (10 shots)
  16. Kellen Jones 9, 0-2-2 (10 shots)
  17. Dillon Simpson 10, 1-1-2 (5 shots)
  18. Greg Chase 4, 0-1-1 (10 shots)
  19. Kyle Platzer 4, 0-1-1 (7 shots)
  20. Phil McRae 6, 0-1-1 (19 shots)
  21. Martin Gernat 7, 0-1-1 (5 shots)
  22. Kale Kessy 7, 1-0-1 (4 shots)
  23. Nikita Nikitin 8, 0-1-1 (12 shots)
  24. Mitch Moroz 9, 0-1-1 (6 shots)
  25. Laurent Brossoit 7, 2.99 .916
  26. Eetu Laurikainen 3, 3.00 .916

OILERS BLUE ON BLUE

As a visual learner, this is extremely powerful. Andrej Sekera, Mark Fayne, Brandon Davidson, Oscar Klefbom, battle river and survive. The rest? Lordy. Darnell Nurse will eventually recover but this shows how curious it is to run Nurse-Schultz so heavily. I believe the young blue played well in his first games, but has faded over time. Here are the cumulative numbers after G19, with Nurse having played 10 games:

nurse through 10

This is a few games after McDavid has been injured, Nurse had played 10 games and Griffin Reinhart 11 games. I received a couple of emails yesterday stating it had been a mistake to recall Nurse and send Reinhart down, wanted to point out a few things. First, Connor McDavid went down during G13, meaning Reinhart would have played five games with McDavid, and Nurse would have played four games while 97 was healthy. Second, during the first 10 games Nurse played in Edmonton, he was in fact superior to Reinhart’s efforts (GR was injured during this time as well, so we need to factor it in).

Not a massive deal, but we should remember when we compare the Nurse and Reinhart numbers now, there are important differences in their handling and the quality of the team during their respective times in Edmonton. I have suggested, and remain convinced, Nurse is and was a superior player to Reinhart. Usage, injury and other factors have us here. Important to include all elements when we discuss these things. I do not believe the Oilers would have iced a superior team if they had kept Reinhart up and left Nurse on the farm. Do you?

Paigin is one of the few eligible draft choices in the Edmonton system who is worth signing and turning pro this summer. If we assume Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, John Marino will stay in their amateur leagues, and that Paigin doesn’t buy out his contract, here is the pool to choose from:

  • D William Lagesson—A solid freshman year at UMass-Amherst has him going in a good direction, as we saw at the WJs. He turns 20 in February, so could sign. Would the Oilers consider turning another lefty blue pro at this time? Seems unlikely.
  • F Tyler Vesel—One guy I think we can hold out some hope for (in terms of landing a pro deal) but it is probably two years away (he is a sophomore at Nebraska—Omaha). Good two-way player, Oilers may have a solid pro here (not necessarily an NHL pro).
  • L Evan Campbell—A member of the famed ‘BCJHL mob’ that has netted Edmonton Jujhar Khaira and little else in the last seven drafts (Kyle Bigos, Kellen Jones, Jujhar Khaira, Evan Campbell, Liam Coughlin—yes I am aware of Anders Nilsson, but the procurement department should not receive credit for that imo). He does not appear to be progressing.
  • G Zach Nagelvoort—Not only he is failing to make progress, he hasn’t played much lately. He did play against the US National Development team last week and won.
  • F Aidan Muir—Big forward is not making progress offensively in year two at Western Michigan. I wonder if Peter Chiarelli ever sits at his desk looking at these numbers and wonders why?
  • G Miroslav Svoboda—having a good season since the trade but no sound reason to bring him over yet.
  • G Keven Bouchard—QMJHL goalies don’t have good numbers, Bouchard is struggling in his new town and unless they calculate save percentage differently (the Q is the most innovative junior league, so I wouldn’t put it past them to be better shot counters) he is a NP.

I think we may see Edmonton sign Marco Roy, Josh Winquist, Josh Currie types to NHL deals, or add NCAA or CHL free agents this summer via NHL deals. Based on these last couple of seasons, bet heavily on Bakersfield signing a few of these players. Edmonton needs to add players, and the procurement department has no obvious signing options from past draft boards.

https://twitter.com/NicholsOnHockey/status/692079763641356289

As we edge closer to the deadline (and then summer) I remain hopeful Peter Chiarelli will use draft picks and cap room to help him bring in defensive help. The idea of trading for a top defender under control faded (for me) when the price for Seth Jones was revealed. If adding a talented but unproven defender comes at a cost of a bona fide No. 1 center, then perhaps PC can get by with two secondary additions to this defense.

That brings me to the next item of business. If we can agree that the Oilers will probably have their first-round pick in play, and that the pick (no matter how good) won’t get you both, what else can they trade? Where is Edmonton’s depth and quality so strong they can afford to take a piece and remain strong? Young left-handed defensemen. The list is absolutely endless! If you include Ziyat Paigin, the list stretches literally for miles.

OILERS LH BLUE PLAYING PRO HOCKEY

  1. Andrej Sekera
  2. Oscar Klefbom
  3. Brandon Davidson
  4. Darnell Nurse
  5. Griffin Reinhart
  6. Brad Hunt
  7. Andrew Ference
  8. Niki Nikitin
  9. David Musil
  10. Jordan Oesterle
  11. Joey Laleggia
  12. Dillon Simpson
  13. Martin Gernat
  14. Ben Betker
  15. Ziyat Paigin

I am not obsessed with lefty-righty (our forum has all the seats for those meetings filled and there is a massive list who want to join), but good grief that is a monster lack of balance. As we venture into the spring and summer, balance will once again take over as a main theme for this blog. Balance may look strange on the day it arrives, because it might mean moving Darnell Nurse or Oscar Klefbom, moving that dandy Brandon Davidson contract or Griffin Reinhart. Peter Chiarelli has very few areas where he can borrow from and remain strong, left-handed defense is a monster on this roster. Someone is moving.

taylor2

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy, fun show today, 10 this morning on TSN1260. It is Bell Let’s Talk day, so some of the content will surround the subject and the cause, tune in for that and the usual. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. All-Star Game and what to do about that defense in the final 32 games of the season.
  • Jeff Hauser, Radio Hauser. He called the Broncos win, I will be looking for his Super Bowl pick, or at least find out which way he is leaning.
  • Rob Vollman, ESPN. Where would the Oilers be with an average number of injuries?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. 90 minutes!

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GCW_69

Caramel Obvious:
delooper,

Corsi isn’t a possession stat.That’s an unfortunate misnomer.It’s a shot metric.And since shots correlate with winning (obviously) Corsi must also.

What you’ve imagined (playing keep away) is something that has very little to do with shots or Corsi.

That seems to gloss over the argument that in order to shoot the puck one must first possess it.

G Money

delooper: Does anyone have any unbiased statistics on this? I see a lot of anecdotes but not systematic data. If systematic data does not exist I suppose I could generate it.

Google’s your friend.

TONS of systematic studies. TONS. Literally hundreds. Ten years worth. All manner of formal statistical tests, many of which exceed my modest knowledge (which I can say without hubris is well beyond layman level).

There is no excuse for making declarations about the validity of shot metrics without doing this basic research.

Woodguy

delooper: Does anyone have any unbiased statistics on this?I see a lot of anecdotes but not systematic data.If systematic data does not exist I suppose I could generate it.

Does the proposal below sound fair?

Let’s count victories in best-of-7 Staney cup rounds vs. the season average corsi for the two teams (is one average higher than the other). Do it over the past 5-10 years or so and see to what extent there is correlation.

I suspect this proposed test would eliminate one of the primary “corsi generation” phenomena I was talking about: bad teams being allowed to take lots of poor-quality shots.If they’re bad they won’t make it to the playoffs.But still the above test would probably have some use.

pick on.net has the data. use score adjusted corsi

report back

this isn”t a real correlation measurement though.

I’ll dig those up later (out with family)

Oilspill

He’s going to learn more playing against good players. This is a development building year. Screw the stats watch him play. He’s alright. Haven’t heard any ex Nhl color men mention he should go down. They watch him.

leadfarmer:
So yet another stat showing Nurse absolutely drowning out there.He really needs to be sent down, and like 20 games ago.

Oilers8833

Hey Lowetide long time reader first time poster. You’re work is outstanding and your articles and the replies section is the first place I go to for Oilers information.

I’m a firm believer that we need two defencemen to turn the ship and not just one. We need a steady top pairing defenceman that calms the waters (ie. Hamonic) and a power play quarterback (ie. Shattenkirk/Yandle/Byfuglien/Vatanen) etc.

I’m in the realm of trading RNH is a losing proposition at this point but potentially what needs to be done down the road when we have a better idea on Draisaitl and McDavid….ie thinking it’s a good idea to have a 19 and 20 year old as your top two centers in the western conference and not being batshit crazy.

My crazy idea however is that we should trade Nurse/2nd or just Nurse if that can get it done for Hamonic. Now while I’m a huge fan of Nurse, at this point Edmonton needs legitimate/proven top 2 NHL defencemen. Trading Nurse gets you that and you still have the assets (ie. Eberle,1st round pick/Yakupov) and cap space on the free agent market to get the power play quarterback you need. Nurse is basically what we would be happy to get in what Hamonic already is…minus the edge. People are going to say trade Eberle and not Nurse, but I don’t think the value of a 6 million dollar winger, no matter how much he has proven to be a 60-70 top RW is as valuable when you take into account a salary cap that isn’t moving for next season. With Davidson stepping up and being a pleasant surprize and also having Reinhart in the wings plus thousands of other LH Defencemen in our system, makes Nurse more expendable than he was 6 months ago not that I want to trade Nurse…love the guy.

My second move would be to attempt to trade for a player like Vatanen or Shattenkirk. Now this is where I would say that since Vatanen is somewhat unproven (ie. hasn’t established consistency) that you could trade for him at relatively cheap or cheaper cost then Shattenkirk. I think Eberle would be an overpay and with the Ducks being a budget team 6 million for Eberle might be too much to take on. This is where I would say the potential of Yakupov and maybe a 2nd or third rounder would potentially work. Yakupov is on a good deal, has the offensive potential and is young and controllable and a second if you didn’t use it as a sweetener for Hamonic (or give it to Boston as part of the Chiarelli signing), would be a reasonable trade.

This would leave you with two long term,controllable, right shot defenseman, while still keeping Ebere and RNH and the 1st round pick. The lines could look something like this:

Hall-Draisaitl-Purcell (resign/1st rnd pick Laine/Puljujarvi/Tkachuk)
Kassian-McDavid-Eberle
Pou-RNH-Slepyshev
Hendricks-Letestu-Pak
Korpse/Khaira

Klefbom-Hamonic
Sekera-Vatanen
Davidson-Reinhart/Fayne

Thoughts…ie is this stupid and I’ve been playing NHL 16 too much?

Sorry about the long winded armchair GM post…..but got to have something to look forward to, other than McDavid coming back and a 10th year in a row of no Whyte Ave celebrations.

stevezie

Oesterle and Joey Legs’ recent stats are great evidence that Hunt would be happier someplace else.

I think he’s a great AHLer who should have a fine non-NHL career, but he doesn’t make sense here.

Ducey: Barring a calamity, this likely ends Hunt’s Oiler experience.

As it should.

delooper

Woodguy: can you link to the data that shows that corsi doesn’t correlate with winning?

Does anyone have any unbiased statistics on this? I see a lot of anecdotes but not systematic data. If systematic data does not exist I suppose I could generate it.

Does the proposal below sound fair?

Let’s count victories in best-of-7 Staney cup rounds vs. the season average corsi for the two teams (is one average higher than the other). Do it over the past 5-10 years or so and see to what extent there is correlation.

I suspect this proposed test would eliminate one of the primary “corsi generation” phenomena I was talking about: bad teams being allowed to take lots of poor-quality shots. If they’re bad they won’t make it to the playoffs. But still the above test would probably have some use.

Water Fire

blainer:
It always continues to amaze me how far behind the management and coaching is in assessing the quality of their players compared to the people on this blog.

This is now including Chia and Tmc.

Decisions on playing players such as Fayne Shultz and Hunt are just plain perplexing. Now I get the injuries but even so the way he distributed their ice time was just plain wrong IMO.

We are often two years ahead of management on how bad a player is before they act on it.

This just continues to baffle me.

EDIT :
When I talk about Fayne I mean it in a way that he should be playing ahead of Shultz. More time at evens and the Pk.

I just read the coaches pole on TSN and the consensus had Kane as the best player and the Caps as a clear Cup favorite. Both of these are clearly wrong.

Kane is the best scorer this year but isn’t the best player on his own team. Washington is riding luck and isn’t nearly as strong as LA or the Hawks as Woodguys numbers showed. They also had Trotz as best coach.

So these fellows react to the obvious as much as the average fan, looking at the surface of things. Trotz is a good coach, but it isn’t his genius driving the Caps success. Just like Babcocks genius is not going to turn Toronto into a contender. He’ll not be in the way of it like Carlyle or Torts who are coaching out of a 2 decade old playbook, but he’s going to need some players.

Ducey

stevezie: Clendening’s AHL numbers are sub-hunt. This bothers me, but it doesn’t get much lower risk than a waiver pickup.

His numbers are lower the last two years than Hunts, true.

But he has bounced around all over the place in the last 2 years. He has only played 15 games this year. Last year he played for 4 different teams. Kind of hard to learn the systems and have the confidence to jump into the play.

He still in only 23 (a yr younger than Davidson). Hunt is 27.

Barring a calamity, this likely ends Hunt’s Oiler experience.

rickithebear

15-16:
Klefbom (10.12)-Fayne (11.36)
Davidson (9.62) -Sekera (11.44)
Reinhart(10.56) – Clandening (6.61)

Since 05-06 HSCA/60
Pronger 05-06 8.33
MAB 05-06 8.63
Staios 05-06 8.96
Cross 05-06 9.08
Greene 05-06 9.11
Spacek 05-06 9.22
Tarnstrom 05-06 9.30
Smith 05-06 9.35
N. Schultz 11-12 9.57
Davidson 15-16 9.62
Staios 08-09 9.63
KLefbom 15-16 10.12
Smid 06-07 10.13
MAB 06-07 10.42
Reinhart 15-16 10.56
MAB 06-07 10.42
Petry 10-11 10.81
Tarnstrom 07-08 10.82
Grebs 07-08 10.93
Hejda 06-07 11.09
Staios 06-07 11.18
Souray 07-08 11.19
Souray 09-10 11.30
Souray 08-09 11.35
Fayne 15-16 11.36
Sekera 15-16 11.44

Take away the 05-06 and 06-07 D!
N. Schultz 11-12 9.57 Upper 3rd comp
Davidson 15-16 9.62 Mid 2nd comp
Staios 08-09 9.63 Upper 3rd comp
KLefbom 15-16 10.12 top 20 comp
Reinhart 15-16 10.56 Bot 1st comp
Petry 10-11 10.81 Upper 3rd comp
Tarnstrom 07-08 10.82 Bottom 3rd comp
Grebs 07-08 10.93 upper 3rd comp
Souray 07-08 11.19 lowerr 1st comp
Souray 09-10 11.30 Upper 2nd comp
Souray 08-09 11.35 upper 2nd comp
Fayne 15-16 11.36 top 10 comp
Sekera 15-16 11.44 Mid 1st comp

Take away the d that did not face 1st to mid 2nd scoring comp:

Davidson 15-16 9.62 Mid 2nd comp
KLefbom 15-16 10.12 top 20 comp
Reinhart 15-16 10.56 Bot 1st comp
Souray 07-08 11.19 lowerr 1st comp
Souray 09-10 11.30 Upper 2nd comp
Souray 08-09 11.35 upper 2nd comp
Fayne 15-16 11.36 top 10 comp
Sekera 15-16 11.44 Mid 1st comp

Has our Defence D sucked in the Past?
Damn straight!

We are looking at our best collection of Defensive D depth since 05-06!
Would be nice to have them Play a large portion of the season together!

We had 3 games were all 5 played!
CHi @ EDM 4-3 OTL
@ CHI 4-2L
@ CAR 4-1 L

Another 3 were we had 4 players and Klef; Davcidson and Reinhart played
NJD @ EDM 5-1 W
Pit @ EDM 2-1L
PHI @ EDM 4-2 W

15 more games with Klefbom; Fayne Sekera
STL @ EDM 4-2 L
EDM @ DAL 4-2 L
EDM @ CGY 5-2 W
EDM @ VCR 2-1 OTW
LAK @ EDM 3-2 L Non goal?
EDM @ ANA 4-3 OTW
EDM @ ARZ 4-1 L
EDM @ LAK 4-3 L
EDM @ MIN 4-3 L
MTL @ EDM 4-3 W
EDM @ WSH 1-0 L
EDM @ DET 4-3 OTL
EDM @ PIT 3-2 SOW
EDM @ TOR 3-0 L

stevezie

RexLibris,

With our excellent centres we can probably afford to trade Eberle for Laine (or whoever). And if we have to, I’m fine with that.

My Plan A, however, is to keep Eberle and trade the pick. The last few years have left me with a craving for sure things.

Snowman

delooper: If Corsi correlates with winning, why does it not correlate with winning?Something seems broken.There needs to be some extra qualifiers because the data does not appear to support the assertion.

As Woodguy discussed earlier corsi predicts who wins championships. Not games. Short term variations can be mostly explained with PDO. Go back to earlier in the tread. Woodguy has a great post on it.

In 2013 Chicago won the cup against Boston. Chicago was 3rd in corsi close, Boston was 4th.
In 2014 LA won the cup against the Rangers. LA was 1st in corsi close. Rangers were 6th.
in 2015 Chi won against TB. Chicago was 4th. TB was 3rd.

There seems to be a correlation between corsi over a full season and winning the stanley cup to me.

Worst team in the finals in the last 3 years was 6th.

stevezie

dustrock,

I’d say Jones is at least as valuable as Klefbom, possibly more. He’s got a real nice offensive ceiling.

Point well made though. Young defenceman are worth a lot in trade. Because they develop so slowly and awkwardly you can often sign them cheap and long (Klefbom, Brodin, Hamonic) so teams love acquiring/keeping them. Their contracts are part of their value.

Guys like Shattenkirk or Bufflygien do not have this. Their value is closer than it seems.

LadiesloveSmid

rickithebear,

are you referring to Fayne? I’m not getting the NJ notes

Woodguy

delooper: If Corsi correlates with winning, why does it not correlate with winning?Something seems broken.There needs to be some extra qualifiers because the data does not appear to support the assertion.

can you link to the data that shows that corsi doesn’t correlate with winning?

stevezie

sliderule:
Clendeningfrom most accounts is a much poorer and way cheaper replica of Justin Schultz

Clendening’s AHL numbers are sub-hunt. This bothers me, but it doesn’t get much lower risk than a waiver pickup.

dustrock

stevezie: “The idea of trading for a top defender under control faded (for me) when the price for Seth Jones was revealed. If adding a talented but unproven defender comes at a cost of a bona fide No. 1 center…”I maintain we under rate Jones’ value here. I think you could trade Jones for Hamonic, for example. I think if anyone had to add something it would be NYI. I only bring this up to say trading for a defender is about as likely as we thought it. And that 1st is going to be worth a lot on draft day.

Yeah, would you rate Jones about the same as Klefbom?

Would you trade Klefbom for anything other than a #1C? Value wise, at least.

delooper

Caramel Obvious:

Corsi isn’t a possession stat.That’s an unfortunate misnomer.It’s a shot metric.And since shots correlate with winning (obviously) Corsi must also.

If Corsi correlates with winning, why does it not correlate with winning? Something seems broken. There needs to be some extra qualifiers because the data does not appear to support the assertion.

blainer

It always continues to amaze me how far behind the management and coaching is in assessing the quality of their players compared to the people on this blog.

This is now including Chia and Tmc.

Decisions on playing players such as Fayne Shultz and Hunt are just plain perplexing. Now I get the injuries but even so the way he distributed their ice time was just plain wrong IMO.

We are often two years ahead of management on how bad a player is before they act on it.

This just continues to baffle me.

EDIT :
When I talk about Fayne I mean it in a way that he should be playing ahead of Shultz. More time at evens and the Pk.

RexLibris

stevezie: I only bring this up to say trading for a defender is about as likely as we thought it.

And that 1st is going to be worth a lot on draft day.

Agreed.

I’m not holding a lot of emotional attachment to the 1st round pick this year because I don’t think Chiarelli sits on this hands even if he has to move it at a bit of a loss so long as whomever he acquires improves the roster significantly (which given where they’ve been since 2007-2008, leaves a wide margin).

I think he has several options available to pursue.

Among them, the theorized three-way deal of Eberle, Shattenkirk, Hamonic.

The discussed Eberle – Vatanen idea.

A pick for Hamonic or another possible top-pairing defender from a club with either a roster surplus or cap constraint.

Cassandra

delooper,

Corsi isn’t a possession stat. That’s an unfortunate misnomer. It’s a shot metric. And since shots correlate with winning (obviously) Corsi must also.

What you’ve imagined (playing keep away) is something that has very little to do with shots or Corsi.

stevezie

“The idea of trading for a top defender under control faded (for me) when the price for Seth Jones was revealed. If adding a talented but unproven defender comes at a cost of a bona fide No. 1 center…”

I maintain we under rate Jones’ value here. I think you could trade Jones for Hamonic, for example. I think if anyone had to add something it would be NYI.

I only bring this up to say trading for a defender is about as likely as we thought it.

And that 1st is going to be worth a lot on draft day.

RexLibris

Woodguy: For 78% of Hall’s career the Oilers did not have a top 4 NHL Dman on the ice.

Think about that.

And for many the answer they come to is “he just needs to find a way to get more out of this team because that is what leaders do”.

You know, the way Hannibal got more out of his forces by romping around Italy for a decade but never taking Rome.

blainer

Don’t think Clendenning is the answer but will say this..

If it helps to move Jultz out of here then that works for me.

Addition by subtraction.

frjohnk

Quinlan: Quoted for truth.

At his best, he’s a rover who uses his skating to cover mistakes and try things out. This player type needs to be allowed some room for a high risk style.

If that was coached out of Keith Yandle, Dan Boyle, even Brent Burns they’d be shadows of what they are. Throw PK Subban and Erik Karlsson in there too.

I’m not saying that’s what Schultz is anymore or even what he was, only that I agree that it is what he could have become had he been allowed to play like an offensively skilled player. Get a Marc Methot to cover for his deficiencies and let him loose.

Not anymore of course. Like you said, seems like he’s lost his edge.

I think he needed to be reigned in somewhat and be smarter in his pinches. There were just too many odd man rushes against when he pinched. This is partly on him and partly on the high forward not covering.

Under Eakins, Schultz was among the top 5 D men in creating high scoring chances 5 on 5. But under Nelson and McLellan his numbers dropped. Under McLellan he is still good, top 20. He had a fantastic goal a couple of weeks ago sneaking in from the point, but those are few and far between.

visiondude

G Money,

Completely agree with this observation. But what gets me riled up is when he looks to be slowing down the play by taking some time, then unleashes a rink long outlet pass that goes for icing….

Side note: I think Nurse’s struggles have been when he also tries to take some more time i.e. slow down the play…which in a lot of cases is the correct play…but then he fumbles the puck when he gets pressured.

Woodguy

Woodguy: Which very good Dmen played here since Hall-Eberle joined the team in 2010?

I have:

Petry (35 games as a rookie in 10/11, 260gp after)
35 games of Whitney before the rut finished off his ankle/foot
Gilbert 126gp
Klefbom 90gp (+17 as a rookie)
Sekera 49gp

So 560 games of good Dmen since Hall entered the league.

Since each game has 6 Dmen games played there has been 6 x 426gp = 2556 Dman games.

560/2556 = 22%

That’s pretty awful.

For 78% of Hall’s career the Oilers did not have a top 4 NHL Dman on the ice.

Think about that.

Quinlan

Caramel Obvious:
I mostly ok with the padre on Schultz.

I would add that in the early days he defended very aggressively up the ice in the neutral zone.I happen to think it was effective.His coaches seem to have disagreed and he no longer does this.

It also looks like he doesn’t join the play as the fourth guy down low nearly as often.Another trait that seems to have been coached out of him.

So from my vantage point the conservative nature of NHL coaching has robbed Schultz of his biggest strengths without replacing them with anything.

Another casualty of the three point game.

Quoted for truth.

At his best, he’s a rover who uses his skating to cover mistakes and try things out. This player type needs to be allowed some room for a high risk style.

If that was coached out of Keith Yandle, Dan Boyle, even Brent Burns they’d be shadows of what they are. Throw PK Subban and Erik Karlsson in there too.

I’m not saying that’s what Schultz is anymore or even what he was, only that I agree that it is what he could have become had he been allowed to play like an offensively skilled player. Get a Marc Methot to cover for his deficiencies and let him loose.

Not anymore of course. Like you said, seems like he’s lost his edge.

Woodguy

LadiesloveSmid: like Calgary last season, high SH% when SV% was low, high SV% when SH% was low. extremely lucky but didn’t show in PDO too well

Exactly.

delooper

sliderule:
Would someone explain to me why the top ten teams in standings only have three teams with a top ten Corsi.
Why the number one team is 15 th in Corsi and the ninth team is dead last in Corsi.
I wait.

Corsi does not correlate with winning. I’ve often thought that Corsi is a sign of two primary things. For *good* teams, high Corsi correlates with a strategy to minimize injuries and exertion — trying to continue winning but with less effort. Don’t let the other team have the puck.

For bad teams, high(ish) Corsi corresponds to what people call “score effects” that losing teams are often allowed to take lots of low-quality shots. Good teams are okay letting bad teams have the puck and take lots of garbage shots. They’ll bide their time and grab the quality opportunities they know they’ll eventually get.

Woodguy

Woodguy: I’ll go deeper when I’m at a PC (on phone), but COL is mostly SV%, Varly started cold and has been smoking hot for a couple months.

since he started cold the overall SV% doesn’t push the PDO up as much as its actually effected their record.

Varly first 14 games .887

Next 19 games .935

Similar to this but reversed is MTL.

PDO since Dec 1st is 953, last in the league.

When the samples are this small, hot and cold streaks PDO wise (or just having elite/shit goalies) dominate results.

N64

Caramel Obvious: Another casualty of the three point game

That’s the problem with the 3 point bonus. It’s selected for players, coaches, GMs, and execs who do not want to change.

leadfarmer

dustrock,

Those numbers are ridiculously low. Both for and against. Its like he spent his entire 10-16 minutes in the 9 games he has played this year pinning the puck against the boards.

G Money

ashley: Is this lack of discipline? Or maybe they are being coached to leave the zone quickly? I’m inclined to believe the former as it is a classic trademark of a frustrated team. Individual players begin to believe that they have to do it all themselves. Especially the talented ones. Carry the team on their back. And that begins with a head start on the rush after a turnover.

I believe there is a lot of truth to this.

I also think that TMc was having success instilling those habits by about 20 games into the season. One of the comments I started making during games was ‘hey, the Oilers have started to show real structure lately!’ Several others made similar comments, so I figured I wasn’t hallucinating.

The most common place where that is displayed is in the defensive formation and the subsequent breakout (if your defensive formation was able to successfully retrieve the puck from the other team).

That all went to hell after Nugey got sick in LA. The team had structure in that game too, and despite also being down two top C like they are now, they scared the hell out of LA. And I remember Sutter’s comments afterwards, which were something to the effect of “Man, those guys are going to be a SCARY team when they get all three C in a game.”

But the structure disappeared slowly after Nuge got sick (he’s been a shadow of himself since then, something you can see clearly on the dashboard I posted earlier), and what was left mostly disappeared after Klefbom went down.

That idea certain key individuals feel pressure to do it all themselves is consistent with what I’ve seen from the team since then.

The good news is also that I’m starting to see some structure reappear at times, despite the depleted team being prone to tire fires.

I think when McD and Nuge come back (Nuge looked to be recovering before he broke his hand … Because Oilers), and Klefbom and Davidson return, this team will surprise people with how much better it looks.

And I do not believe that I’m particularly prone to optimism.

rickithebear

Revolved:
Some Clendening stats from this year:

HDSCF/60 – 8.13
HDSCA/60 – 6.61 (!!!)
HDSCF%Rel –-0.18
SCF/60 – 21.34
SCA/60 – 20.83
SCF%Rel –-5.95
CF%Rel –-0.94
FF%Rel –-1.94

Last years numbers are worse in an absolute sense, but better relative the teams he was on.

Great!
6.61 #1 in League.
Facing 3rd/4th comp.
3rd pair D?

Averaged
+10
6 EVG
3 PPG
24 EVA yes!
13 PPA
a season in AHL
23yr old 6’0″ 190lb 2.64lb/in.

LT:
The bottom axis makes it clear which D man protects the boxed area.
No wonder he was # 1 in league for 4yrs in NJ.
Now if he coulld play with forwards with lower giveaway ratios and better d zone coverage.
That would reduce scoring Chances against.
Likely see NJ numbers again.

Cassandra

I mostly ok with the padre on Schultz.

I would add that in the early days he defended very aggressively up the ice in the neutral zone. I happen to think it was effective. His coaches seem to have disagreed and he no longer does this.

It also looks like he doesn’t join the play as the fourth guy down low nearly as often. Another trait that seems to have been coached out of him.

So from my vantage point the conservative nature of NHL coaching has robbed Schultz of his biggest strengths without replacing them with anything.

Another casualty of the three point game.

LMHF#1

G Money: I would also add that one of the most infuriating aspects of Schultz is that he will regularly give up a chance to make a play on the puck in order to avoid getting hit.Many of the ‘panic’ situations occur for the same reason – not so much because of pressure but because of fear.

You can’t play defense in the NHL when you’re scared.

Really makes me wonder what happened that appears to have resulted in some sort of mental block.

He didn’t do this in his first NHL season.

dustrock

Revolved: Some Clendening stats from this year:HDSCF/60 – 8.13HDSCA/60 – 6.61 (!!!)HDSCF%Rel – -0.18SCF/60 – 21.34SCA/60 – 20.83SCF%Rel – -5.95CF%Rel – -0.94FF%Rel – -1.94Last years numbers are worse in an absolute sense, but better relative the teams he was on.

Sorry just looking at this table without any other reference not sure how this looks.

What is a “good” HDSCA/60 number. Is 6.61 really good or really bad?

blainer

G Money: I would also add that one of the most infuriating aspects of Schultz is that he will regularly give up a chance to make a play on the puck in order to avoid getting hit.Many of the ‘panic’ situations occur for the same reason – not so much because of pressure but because of fear.

You can’t play defense in the NHL when you’re scared.

This.

He is NOT an NHL player. I really question how he could do in the AHL too.. he is defiantly scared.. It sickens me to even watch this palyer as he doesn’t even hustle back to help fix his mistakes. This player is still thinking like he is playing Pee Wee !!

N64

blainer: Finally.. it looks like Shultz will be gone

It sets up to trade Schultz. It sets up to reduce Shultz”s score effect ice time. It sets up to not bringing Hunr up again. It sets up to drop Adam after a few weeks like the Ducks did. Will be an interesting experiment to see what it sets up .

G Money

dustrock,

Two things bought Cam Barker so much leeway:

– his pedigree (3OV)

– the fact that he scored 40 pts in 68 games, which is a phenomenal scoring rate for a defender. Pro-rated to a full season, it’s 48 pts – just one shy of Nuge’s career peak!

Teams got suckered into giving him chance after chance hoping to recreate whatever it is that let him bottle lightning that one season.

G Money

frjohnk: in the D zone,
-can not clear the front of the net
-can not break up the cycle
-loses more than his share of puck battles than he wins
-he is prone to chasing
-will panic and make a poor decision under pressure

I would also add that one of the most infuriating aspects of Schultz is that he will regularly give up a chance to make a play on the puck in order to avoid getting hit. Many of the ‘panic’ situations occur for the same reason – not so much because of pressure but because of fear.

You can’t play defense in the NHL when you’re scared.

blainer

Finally.. it looks like Shultz will be gone.

This should have been done last summer but I guess they were talked into keeping him based on how hard he worked in the off season.

Tmac and Chia really made some bad decisions in playing Shultz over Fayne.

Like Gagner The Oilers will be a better team with the subtraction of Jultz. I will be totally amazed if they can get anything in a trade for this player. If they do the oilers better not hire the pro scouts working for the team that trades for him.

G Money

RJ2016,

I haven’t separated DF into 20 game chunks, but I have built a dashboard where you can compare every player over the course of the season:

http://i.imgur.com/k4aoiwi.png

Defenders are shaded with a yellow background.

The major blue/brown curve is raw Corsi (I may do a score adjusted version of this), while the purple line is the DangerFen.

N64

G Money: DAMN THIS FORMER COSMIC LADDER!WHY DOES THE FORMER COSMIC LADDER TORMENT ME SO!!!

Trying hard to resist the obvious Ladder Day Saints pun. Sigh.

Centre of attention

Clendening says he would love to wear #5 on his sweater.

*clear throat* Fayne, office!

Revolved

Some Clendening stats from this year:

HDSCF/60 – 8.13
HDSCA/60 – 6.61 (!!!)
HDSCF%Rel – -0.18
SCF/60 – 21.34
SCA/60 – 20.83
SCF%Rel – -5.95
CF%Rel – -0.94
FF%Rel – -1.94

Last years numbers are worse in an absolute sense, but better relative the teams he was on.

G Money

Магия 10:
Hey G. You are in lofty company today.

DAMN THIS FORMER COSMIC LADDER! WHY DOES THE FORMER COSMIC LADDER TORMENT ME SO!!!

frjohnk

What Schultz does well

-In the Ozone 5 on 5, when the Oilers have the puck and are cycling, Schultz is one of the best in the league at swooping down for a chance down low. He can read the play well here

What Schultz does OK
-can make a good pass when not under pressure ( yes, he can do this)
-has the ability to skate the puck out of trouble
-can move the puck well up the ice on the PP

What Schultz does not do well

in the D zone,
-can not clear the front of the net
-can not break up the cycle
-loses more than his share of puck battles than he wins
-he is prone to chasing
-will panic and make a poor decision under pressure

in the Ozone
-does not have a booming shot
-the shot that he does have, is easily blocked and/or easily saved ( How many PP goals does he have?)
-even though he is good a getting chances down low( one of the defense leaders over the last few years) he rarely cashes
-does not have the sense of urgency to get back on defense after a rush up the ice
-seems to have trouble holding the line during the PP

I think Schultz is the type of player who growing up, usually played with the puck and never had to worry about defense. And when he played in those inferior leagues and did not have the puck, there were a lot of mistakes from opposing teams. Schultz with his skating and offensive instincts, in the inferior leagues could read and react to those plays and capitalize on those mistakes. But the NHL is a league were few mistakes are made and this neutralizes one of Schultz’s strengths. Case in point, in the AHL where there are more mistakes, in the games I watched, Schultz looked really good. He was great at transitioning the puck on a turnover. But the NHL is a different beast

I think the Schultz experiment is over. If this summer he worked on getting stronger and having some sort of shot, he could be a good 3rd pairing PP specialist with a low salary for a team, but it wont be for the Oilers.