PURPLE HAZE

by Lowetide

I asked some pretty smart observers of the good ship Oil about the chances of Adam Clendening being claimed, and to a person they had the same response: No. As it turns out, we were all scouting the wrong guy!

  • Adam Clendening on Peter Chiarelli“When he called me this morning, that was something he said. He’s kept track. He liked what I had to offer at school, getting drafted, and it’s definitely nice to know you have a fan in your GM.” Source

I believe the waiver wire is an underused tool for NHL teams and am happy the Oilers pursued it today. I also believe there are probably 150 fringe NHL players just like Clendening looking for an opportunity like the one he got today. You can bet the farm he will work his tail off for Chiarelli and the Oilers over the rest of the season.

Will he make it? Tough to say. Edmonton doesn’t use the transaction often (or at least the previous GMs did not), but we have seen Matt Fraser, Luke Gazdic and Niko Hoivenen (bet you forgot!) in recent history. Earlier in the century, men like Ryan Jones and Steve MacIntyre arrived via the waiver wire.

NHLE’S

Using the NHL equivalencies that fit the time (Vollman mostly) I came up with the following:

  • Age 18 (NCAA) 39, 5-21-26 (NHLE per 82GP: 18)
  • Age 19 (NCAA) 38, 4-29-33 (NHLE per 82GP: 23)
  • Age 20 (AHL) 73, 9-37-46 (NHLE per 82GP: 23)
  • Age 21 (AHL) 74, 12-47-59 (NHLE per 82GP: 29)

That takes us to 2014-15, where got was dealt to Vancouver in January and then began his vagabond days, landing with the Oilers today. CAN he fill a role with the Oilers? Maybe. He is a second-round selection from 2011 (the Oilers also picked up Iiro Pakarinen from the same draft year) and the resume looks reasonably encouraging.

HIS NHL CAREER

VERY small sample size, he is 30 games and 468 minutes into his NHL career, that is pretty much no time at all. He has a 50.8 percent Corsi and a 51.0 Fenwick and has played with people I would think we can agree are third pairing and fourth-line types.

WHO WILL IT IMPACT?

The Oilers will need to make room for him, and the Brad Hunt demotion may have been in order to get Brandon Davidson back off IR and onto the roster. When Klefbom comes back, suggest we will see a trade—and that may happen sooner if the club has decided Griffin Reinhart is NHL-ready. I should also mention the possibility of Darnell Nurse being sent out, although that appears to be a distant bell.

OILERS DEFENSE OVER SEASON

Clendening may not help, but looking at these numbers I would suggest giving him 32 games to show what he can do is a reasonable idea.

WHO IS GETTING TRADED?

Three men may have enough value to both warrant a trade and be expendable. I will suggest Mark Fayne has the most value, that Justin Schultz fits the Clendening skill set most closely, and that Eric Gryba could also be in play. We wait.

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Unwashed Oilfan

Mr DeBakey: Since when is terrorist oil [whatever that is] considered better than Alberta oil?

Obama would rather welcome Iranian and Syrian oil through tankers rather than accept Alberta oil.

N64

kinger_OIL: I don’t think you can be definitive.

Then don’t. A Bell logo or plug on TV is passive compared to a viral campaign to get millions to type a hash tag with Bell’s name.

Personally I’d crawl over broken glass before I’d go anywhere near twitter with a valid but unpopular opinion. And if I did I’d express it a few days later. Not during the twitterthon.

G Money

JDï™,

Yep. Lot of repetitive rants, and a LOT of repeated posts and pictures of his youth (unsurprisingly). In his rants, a handful of names were repeated, mostly family. The recognizable public names were Kent Hehr (negative), Fred Horne (negative), Hrudey, and surprisingly, a very positive view of Dr. Raj Sherman.

raventalon40

Seriously, people. Watch the tape. It’s obvious Wideman was clocked so hard he had no idea what he was doing. If linesman don’t get suspended for intentionally spraining Yakupov’s ankle then why should a semi-concussed Wideman get punished for running into the ref?

Though, this being the NHL, they will be more worried about the optics than the reality. If John Scott was any indication.

kinger_OIL

theres oil in virginia,

By the way, I was just in Virginia two weeks ago: I should have looked you up!

– Whether corporations should wade into social or political issues is a fascinating topic. If Bell executives felt strongly about commemorating WW2 and recognizing Vets, and at the same time trying to sell more phones and strenghtening ties with their client base, or promote mental health, I don’t think you can be definitive.

– Corporations don’t live in a vacuum, and if they can both promote their products, and tout causes they believe in, why shouldn’t they use their influence?

– Too bad this will get lost as next post goes up!

frjohnk

Unless Klefbom is in a package that fetches a major up grade. ie elite number 1, trading him does not make sense.

When healthy, he is a top 4 D man and is arguably our best D man. And at 22, he will only get better.

I like Hamonic and would say that Hamonic is better, but the gap is not by much and I would say that Klefboms offensive ceiling is higher. Hamonic is in his prime, while Klefbom is not there yet. The contracts are comparable. Hamonic 3.8M till 2020. Klefbom 4.1M till 2021

One of the biggest reasons why we would want to get Hamonic is that we only have 2 top 4 D man. A Klefbom for Hamonic swap still leaves us with 2 top 4 D man.

Atc-Nate

Wideman gets nothing. Watched this on sports centre from 3 different angles this morning and if you watch the angle from the front you watch Wideman do this weird wiggle thing with his feet just before he throws his hands up. He (somehow) got surprised by the lineman.

Throw in the “no penalty” on the play, an apology, no history (afaik) and you have him getting off Scott free.

Just my $.02

theres oil in virginia

kinger_OIL: – I was very critical of those commercials, and told my Grandfather: “I can’t believe Bell is taking advantage of such a historical moment for Canadians, just to sell more phones”
– He shut me up in a hurry: “There are millions of people who were involved in that war, and if you don’t like the commercial, just keep your opinion to yourself”

You were right to say that, and your grandfather’s response is proof that Bell was taking advantage of people’s emotions.

RexLibris

Bruce McCurdy:
I predict Wideman will get the same suspension that the linesman who assassinated Yakupov got.

Where the fuck was the official’s union that time?

“A spokesman from the NHL Official’s Union was unavailable for comment at this time but did ensure us that they will have the sandbags ready for deployment should the need arise.”

Ca$h-McMoney!

stevezie,

Agreed that handedness matters.

I just think that we have a bunch of options for fixing the problem, and I’d only pursue the Klefbom out for good RHD in option if about 15 other paths were off the table first.

Obviously the most ideal path is to acquire that quality RD for nothing, or to convince a UFA to accept a value contract… super unlikely stuff.

If it’s a trade, to me, it’s some combination of high end forward, lower end D, draft picks, prospects, that get shipped out.

We need to add to Klefbom and Sekera. Davidson appears to be in that group also, heck I’ve been one of his biggest supporters for a year or two now, but I’m still not thinking we should bet the farm on him. A wise man has been noted for talking about how D tends not to develop in a straight line, so it’s possible we see him take a step back here.

Our D next year needs to include Klefbom, Sekera, Davidson, Nurse, and ideally someone better than all of them, or at least at the Klef/Sekera level.

I like Hamonic best for that role not because I think his play is superior to the other options, but because he’s the right age, is right handed, and has a great contract. Those three things make him the ideal acquisition in my book.

stevezie

Ca$h-McMoney!: That’s why Hamonic for Klefbom doesn’t make sense, above and beyond all the discussion of who is actually better. At the end of the day it doesn’t really matter, we need both (and realistically more).

I completely agree we need both, but we also NEED a good RH Dman. If we swapped Klef for Hamonic we would have a lot more flexibility in pursuing UFA/trade targets to get the other top 3 defenceman we need.

Not saying it is a slam dunk or Plan A, but I think the handedness argument is a lot more than nothin’.

stevezie

russ99,

Not to mentioned the handedness issue, which ain’t nothin’.

kinger_OIL,

I get that, which is why I haven’t really been beating the drum loudly, just popping up a little to defend someone who I think is getting railroaded by mob-mentality.

For whatever it’s worth, I’ve had someone in my life touched by mental illness and remain cynical about the tweets. I think Bell recognized the national discourse on mental illness was turning and there was an opportunity to brand it more than they “started” the conversation.

Don’t mind me, I just had too much Neil Young in my formative years.

Pouzar

Ca$h-McMoney!:
russ99,

I’m with Ricki…kinda.

Maybe Hamonic is better than Klefbom.I don’t believe our current means of analysis give us the tools to make that statement conclusively, but for the purpose of the argument I’ll let you have that.

So how much better?Because to me, at most, it’s a marginal difference.The difference isn’t enough to make this team better by any appreciable amount.

Bringing in new players involves a certain amount of risk, because it’s hard to say how they will fit into a system.We know Klefbom fits into the system.We suspect Hamonic will too, but we don’t know.Sometimes it just doesn’t work out (this year’s best example is Phil Kessel in Pittsburgh, who was waiting for years for an elite center before he started potting 70 goals/year).

Hamonic almost definitely makes this team better if Klefbom is still on the team.

Hamonic might make the team a little better if Klefbom isn’t on the team.

That’s why Hamonic for Klefbom doesn’t make sense, above and beyond all the discussion of who is actually better.At the end of the day it doesn’t really matter, we need both (and realistically more).

Nailed it.

Seems cut and dry to me.

N64

I understand Wideman is opting for the Purple Haze defence. Truthers wanna know why LT suggested that before the hit

Ca$h-McMoney!

russ99,

I’m with Ricki… kinda.

Maybe Hamonic is better than Klefbom. I don’t believe our current means of analysis give us the tools to make that statement conclusively, but for the purpose of the argument I’ll let you have that.

So how much better? Because to me, at most, it’s a marginal difference. The difference isn’t enough to make this team better by any appreciable amount.

Bringing in new players involves a certain amount of risk, because it’s hard to say how they will fit into a system. We know Klefbom fits into the system. We suspect Hamonic will too, but we don’t know. Sometimes it just doesn’t work out (this year’s best example is Phil Kessel in Pittsburgh, who was waiting for years for an elite center before he started potting 70 goals/year).

Hamonic almost definitely makes this team better if Klefbom is still on the team.

Hamonic might make the team a little better if Klefbom isn’t on the team.

That’s why Hamonic for Klefbom doesn’t make sense, above and beyond all the discussion of who is actually better. At the end of the day it doesn’t really matter, we need both (and realistically more).

kinger_OIL

– Re: Dellow. True story. In the 90’s, when my Grandfather was still alive (and he was a WW2 vet), we were watching the Grey Cup, and Bell had on at that time commercials commemorating D-Day, where kids would be at Normandie, then they would call home “just to say thanks”.

– I was very critical of those commercials, and told my Grandfather: “I can’t believe Bell is taking advantage of such a historical moment for Canadians, just to sell more phones”

– He shut me up in a hurry: “There are millions of people who were involved in that war, and if you don’t like the commercial, just keep your opinion to yourself”

– Too bad Dellow didn’t have someone effected by mental illness to tell him to shut his trap

– I know what he meant, but his view is too nuanced and it’s only his opinion. Twitter is dumb, and for immediate happenings: its not a platform for in-depth social discourse: Lowetide is!

russ99

rickithebear:
Klefbom was one of the ten best tough comp def d in the game when injured.
Who is signed for 4.167m for the next 7 years.Hamonic is not one of the 23 1st 2 nd and 3 rd comp d to get first pair def results.
Klefbom and Davidson.

The fix for our team is healthy klefbom and Davidson.

Hamonic for klefbom.

Bat shit crazy is being nice.

Anytime you think of this trade.
Just play red from the 70 show line in your head.

Not crazy for four reasons:

1. With the contract kicking in next year and large escalators every year, Klefbom is no longer a prospect,

2. Despite what the fancy stats say, he has deficiencies in his game; creating offense in the O-zone (Nurse is vastly better at this) and defensive zone play away from the wall, one on ones and clearing the crease. Also there’s a very good chance his good breakout and zone entry play are skewing his fancy stats higher than they should be, i.e. he’s better in the neutral zone than in the o or d zones.

3. He’s missed significant time every single year he’s been an Oiler.

4. With the new building opening and Katz needing playoff dates to clean up, the tenptation to flip Klefbom for a player who’s not only better now and further along in development but also is good at all the things Klefbom had issues with, is signed to a reasonable deal and wants to play in western Canada has got to be tempting.

A risky move, but one I’d make, since it’s going to be tough to get two top pairing guys here in one offseason.

Pouzar

Was at the Jets/Coyotes game on Tuesday and 3 things the numbers agreed with:

1. Brad Richardson is a very nice bottom 6 player. Nice signing there (3 yrs X 2 million) by the Coyotes.

2. Boyd Gordon doesn’t look good.

3. Duclair was the most dangerous offensive player for the Coyotes by far.

Oh…..and OEL is a stud. We should get that guy.

Pouzar

BONVIE: I kind of like this Clendening pick up, he is basically Vatanen for free.

If this turns out to be true you get free drinks for life!

stevezie

BONVIE:
I’d day the Lucic one is totally unintentionally he was punching the Colorado player and caught the linesman with follow through. The Wideman check from behind was nasty, a 3-5 game if it was on a player but I say 20 on this poor linesman.

Agree completely. One is obviously an accident and the other is obviously on purpose.

stevezie

Gret99zky:
#BellLetsTalk sets a record with
125,915,295 tweets, shares, calls and texts. $6,295,764.75 raised for Canadian mental health initiatives.

Yeah, I’m thinking Dellow wants a do-over with that tweet.

I don’t. Another way to read that is Bell spent 6 mil on an incredibly successful advertising campaign.

I’m glad the money went to charity instead of an ad agency. I’m not saying crafting a successful advertising campaign makes Bell evil. But I have no problem with anyone being cynical about it.

stevezie

Professor Q: Wait, I thought Lucic Todd Bertuzzied a player and didn’t get in trouble for it (in fact the HNIC Panel lauded him for it)? I didn’t see a ref. Unless he did something similar soon after.
  (Quote)  (Reply)

To Bertuzzi a guy is to punch him in the back of the head and tackle him, landing on his head. Lucic punched a guy in the front. There was no tackle.

There was no “Bertuzzi”.

Gret99zky

#BellLetsTalk sets a record with
125,915,295 tweets, shares, calls and texts. $6,295,764.75 raised for Canadian mental health initiatives.

Yeah, I’m thinking Dellow wants a do-over with that tweet.

JD_Wry

Professor Q,

Avoidance would be the instinct, which he had already executed.

The crosscheck avec follow through?

Professor Q

JDï™:
https://streamable.com/qpck

There is no way – no way, that Wideman doesn’t see the official. Maybe for a while, but he cuts an edge to miss him just before laying the crosscheck.

And if your shoulder/neck is so sore after getting hit in the corner, why lift your stick to deliver the crosscheck?

There is no way that Wideman doesn’t forfeit over $1M because of that hit.

It could have been the shock of looking up and seeing something right there, and then reacting on instinct.

It’s like walking while looking at your feet, and then looking up and realising there’s a pole right in front of you, or another person walking, and reacting on instinct and adrenaline.

Although re-watching it, that oddly doesn’t seem to be the case. Something weird must have happened after the initial hit because I have no idea why Wideman would do that…

JD_Wry

G Money: One thing that did come up a few times is the anger that McQueen had for that ‘liar’ and ‘thief’ Hrudey.

On the FB posts?

G Money

There’s a headline in the Sun about Hrudey ‘remembering his friend David McQueen’. McQueen is the guy in the wheelchair who was shooting at a bus, and was eventually shot dead by police.

A friend of mine posted that McQueen had been on Facebook and suggested that his posts confirmed the news stories suggesting mental illness.

It was a bit skeezy, but I couldn’t resist the urge to look at some of the posts … and it’s true. It’s clear that McQueen was somebody who went through a great deal of pain and it affected him. Whether the illness drove his circumstances or the circumstances drove his illness, it’s clear that his life was filled with sadness and rage. The death of his only friend and companion, his dog Bear, seems to be what caused him to go over the edge.

It was quite tragic to read actually, and I didn’t / couldn’t spend long.

One thing that did come up a few times is the anger that McQueen had for that ‘liar’ and ‘thief’ Hrudey.

It’s an odd disconnect with the Hrudey story, where he talks about his ‘friend’ and how much he did for them.

JD_Wry

https://streamable.com/qpck

There is no way – no way, that Wideman doesn’t see the official. Maybe for a while, but he cuts an edge to miss him just before laying the crosscheck.

And if your shoulder/neck is so sore after getting hit in the corner, why lift your stick to deliver the crosscheck?

There is no way that Wideman doesn’t forfeit over $1M because of that hit.

Younger Oil

To me, some of the most damning evidence of the Wideman hit is that after leveling the linesman he doesn’t even look back. If he didn’t see the linesman and it was truly unintentional, he’d look back at what he unintentionally hit.

What’s the first thing you do when you trip on something you don’t expect? You look back and give that uneven ground the stink eye.

G Money

Bruce McCurdy,

Ah. In that case, my apologies for the misread. I consider you part of the hockey and fancystats ‘gurudom’, so I don’t attribute casual observer status to your posts.

Bruce McCurdy

G Money: For what purpose?

Just that a (more) casual observer would say the first period is Oilers’ best, not their worst. Interesting what happens when one digs deeper, it’s not always intuitive.

JD_Wry
G Money

JDï™,

Tru dat. Guess the ‘playoff push’ starts a little later.

BONVIE

I kind of like this Clendening pick up, he is basically Vatanen for free. Now the Oilers can try using a small guy in the lineup for the last 30 games. He is like Osterle in the fact he plays a responsible defensive game, kind of blocks Osterle though.

JD_Wry

G Money,

Whether he gets suspended or not, the important thing is that the Flames spits lost.

G Money

Bruce McCurdy,

At least the official has video evidence suggesting it was actually an accident . . .

Younger Oil

G Money:
Just FYI, if they claim he was so concussed that he didn’t realize it was a linesman, the play by play file shows Wideman had multiple shots on net and at least one shot block after he was hit.

Severely concussed indeed.

He also said in his post game interview that his head is fine, and it was just his neck and shoulder that hurt.

Also, if Hrudey did say that, he is even more delusional than I thought. Wideman’s head was up pretty much the whole way. If he didn’t see him, and it was an accident, there would have been some immediate remorse, especially when you realize it was an official you hit, the official stays down, and you know the league doesn’t look kindly on the abuse of officials.

I don’t think it was an excessive hit, but he definitely followed through. It’s as if he said “Fuck it, I’m taking the shortest way to the bench no matter who is in my way”.

BONVIE

I’d day the Lucic one is totally unintentionally he was punching the Colorado player and caught the linesman with follow through. The Wideman check from behind was nasty, a 3-5 game if it was on a player but I say 20 on this poor linesman.

Bruce McCurdy

I predict Wideman will get the same suspension that the linesman who assassinated Yakupov got.

Where the fuck was the official’s union that time?

G Money

Bruce McCurdy: I’m not arguing with you, i’m merely pointing out the disconnect.Sheesh.

For what purpose?

G Money

Bruce McCurdy: You realize that Oilers have outscored their opposition in first periods. 40 GF, 39 GA. Whereas in the second they are +31/-53 & in the third, +41/-52.

FYI, 5v5 goal scoring in the first period is 29 to 31. 48.3%.

Bruce McCurdy

G Money:
Bruce McCurdy,

Half a season, Bruce.

Goal scoring can disconnect from shot metrics to a much greater extent and for longer than that.

You know this.

Goals in the first period represent 79 data points.In 50 games, that’s barely more than one per first period per game.

You want to defend reading a trend from that?

Just FYI, the shot counts total 1408.

And that’s 5v5 – I assume the goal counts are as well?

I’m not arguing with you, i’m merely pointing out the disconnect. Sheesh.

TeeVee

G Money,

I stole “tongue bath” from Bruce. It’s a favourite of mine now.

G Money

Just FYI, if they claim he was so concussed that he didn’t realize it was a linesman, the play by play file shows Wideman had multiple shots on net and at least one shot block after he was hit.

Severely concussed indeed.

G Money

TeeVee: The most disgusting thing about this event is having to listen to Hrudey say that “He doesn’t even see the linesman”.

Are you fucking kidding me Hrudey, you fucking tongue bath giver. Jebus.

HA HAHAHA, I just read your post.

G Money

Younger Oil,

Or you can be like Hrudey and claim that Wideman just didn’t see the official.

(That’s hearsay, I don’t know if he actually said that, it was a Twitter claim … but it does sound like something he’d say)

Professor Q

RexLibris: I saw it on my TL.

He pushes at the ref’s face, kind of a bop in the nose.

I don’t doubt it hurt, and it certainly is deserving of some time on the naughty stool, but it is closer to Kassian’s than anything and nowhere even bloody close to Wideman’s.

*Edit – watched it again, he goes to punch and Av player, his fist rolls off the face and hits the ref standing behind and beside the Av. Hard enough to hurt, but not enough to injure. Stupid and reckless, but he’s not aiming at the referee.

Wait, I thought Lucic Todd Bertuzzied a player and didn’t get in trouble for it (in fact the HNIC Panel lauded him for it)? I didn’t see a ref. Unless he did something similar soon after.

TeeVee

stevezie: I think he’s done for the season.

This is unprecedented in the modern era, no? I don’t even know what to compare this to! It will take an amazing defence for him to get anything less than 30.

The most disgusting thing about this event is having to listen to Hrudey say that “He doesn’t even see the linesman”.

Are you fucking kidding me Hrudey, you fucking tongue bath giver. Jebus.

MrEd

RexLibris,

I get it. Rules are rules unless unspeakable history has something to say about it.

G Money

Bruce McCurdy,

Half a season, Bruce.

Goal scoring can disconnect from shot metrics to a much greater extent and for longer than that.

You know this.

Goals in the first period represent 79 data points. In 50 games, that’s barely more than one and a half data points per first period per game.

You want to defend reading a trend from that?

Just FYI, the first period shot counts total 1408.

And that’s 5v5 – I assume the goal counts are as well? If not, there’s an even greater data volume disconnect between the two.

This is why we use shot metrics instead of goals in the first place. Wait another, oh, I dunno, 200 or 300 games? … and then you’ll have similar validity to the goal-based sample size.