LOTS OF INTEL, WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

by Lowetide

Math is one of the seven wonders of the world (along with women, demon liquor and chocolate) and today I am going to attempt to cipher what the Oilers are facing this evening. From my perspective, they have a bit of a roster issue.

You may recall the club sent Zack Kassian, Brad Hunt and Griffin Reinhart to the minors at the beginning of the break, and more recently claimed Adam Clendening on waivers. Let’s run the roster as it should appear on Peter Chiarelli’s white board this evening:

  • Goal (2): Cam Talbot, Anders Nilsson
  • Defense (6): Andrej Sekera, Mark Fayne, Darnell Nurse, Justin Schultz, Eric Gryba, Adam Clendening
  • Center (3): Leon Draisaitl, Mark Letestu, Anton Lander
  • Left Wing (5): Taylor Hall, Benoit Pouliot, Lauri Korpikoski, Luke Gazdic, Rob Klinkhammer
  • Right Wing (5): Jordan Eberle, Teddy Purcell, Nail Yakupov, Matt Hendricks, Iiro Pakarinen

That is 21, leaving room for two players to be added via recall. After the break, the Oilers are very likely to recall Kassian while also activating Connor McDavid and Brandon Davidson. Oscar Klefbom hopefully arrives ready soonafter. My math says the club needs to make a move, with Rob Klinkhammer being the obvious choice (he has already cleared waivers recently). If Edmonton wants to recall Reinhart, candidates would include Darnell Nurse and waiving Luke Gazdic—neither likely. This brings us to the Justin Schultz conversation from a couple of days ago.

https://twitter.com/NicholsOnHockey/status/693158003906781184

I think Reinhart’s recall may hinge on finding a landing spot for Schultz, and Mr. Friedman is a very connected fellow. Something imminent? I think that is probably being a little more aggressive than the current intel suggests, but we could see something soon.

This is a follow up to the Friedman conversation with Bob Stauffer earlier today, putting Jordan Eberle in Brooklyn and Travis Hamonic on the Canadian prairies. If that happens, I would be interested in knowing if it is connected to signing Teddy Purcell—the Oilers have to make a decision on him before the deadline. That would mean proceeding with Purcell and Nail Yakupov on the RW for next season—have to say I didn’t expect to see both of them in the fall and would not have been surprised to see both gone by July. Peter Chiarelli is apparently taking interesting phone calls.

OILERS CURRENT 50-MAN LIST (49)

  1. G Cam Talbot, NHL starter
  2. G Anders Nilsson, NHL backup.
  3. G Laurent Brossoit, AHL starter.
  4. G Eetu Laurikainen, AHL backup.
  5. D Andrej Sekera, veteran has been very valuable.
  6. D Oscar Klefbom, enjoying a solid year when healthy.
  7. D Mark Fayne, performing better in recent games. 
  8. D Brandon Davidson, a brilliant season so far.
  9. D Darnell Nurse, started in AHL, now in NHL.
  10. D Justin Schultz, may be playing his final games as an Oiler.
  11. D Eric Gryba, third pairing defender.
  12. D Adam Clendening, waiver pickup. Oilers used to make these count, maybe again?
  13. D Griffin Reinhart, spent time in the NHL, AHL and IR.
  14. D Brad Hunt, has seen some NHL time, currently in AHL.
  15. D Andrew Ference, injured, gone for the season.
  16. D Nikita Nikitin, got a (ghastly) cup of coffee, back in the minors.
  17. D David Musil, AHL D. May get a look in the second half.
  18. D Jordan Oesterle, AHL D. Improving, might get a look.
  19. D Joey Laleggia, AHL D.
  20. D Dillon Simpson, AHL D.
  21. D Martin Gernat, AHL D.
  22. D Ben Betker, ECHL D, had a cup of coffee in the AHL recently.
  23. C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, NHL center. Injured.
  24. C Leon Draisaitl, emerging NHL talent.
  25. C Connor McDavid, brilliant 13 games, back soon.
  26. C Anton Lander, checking NHL C.
  27. C Mark Letestu, checking NHL C.
  28. C Jujhar Khaira, AHL C spent some time in the NHL.
  29. C Andrew Miller, AHL C, used to play wing.
  30. C Bogdan Yakimov, on loan to the KHL, for either six months or 50 years.
  31. C Kyle Platzer, AHL C looking good.
  32. L Taylor Hall, Quality NHL forward. Hey, you’re an All-Star!
  33. L Benoit Pouliot, No. 2 L for the Oil.
  34. R Zack Kassian, playing well as an Oiler.
  35. L Lauri Korpikoski, checking NHL W.
  36. L Matt Hendricks, checking NHL W.
  37. L Luke Gazdic, NHL Enforcer.
  38. L Ryan Hamilton, AHL winger, mentor.
  39. L Kale Kessy, AHL winger/enforcer showing some signs.
  40. L Mitch Moroz, AHL winger/enforcer.
  41. L Braden Christoffer, rugged new pro W.
  42. R Jordan Eberle, scoring winger. Rumors have him heading to Brooklyn.
  43. R Nail Yakupov, emerging NHL scorer.
  44. R Teddy Purcell, veteran NHL W having a good year.
  45. R Iiro Pakarinen, back in the NHL, being useful.
  46. R Rob Klinkhammer, energy winger in the NHL.
  47. R Anton Slepyshev, talented winger started in NHL, currently injured in AHL.
  48. R Tyler Pitlick, AHL winger is back and scoring. Stay healthy, dammit!
  49. R Greg Chase, up and down between ECHL and AHL.
99 comments
0

You may also like

0 0 vote
Article Rating
99 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
AsiaOil

Really?,

Sure that works – or a trade for a Berglund type – a bigger 3rd line C would be nice for match-ups at home.

wintoon

AsiaOil,

One other alternative is to keep the line of Hall, RNH, Draisaitl together and run with Pouliot, McDavid, Yakupov. The key,however, would be to acquire Nielsen from NYI as a free agent this summer.

We always talk about strength down the middle and assume we have it with McD, Drai and RNH. If you add Nielsen as a third line centre and use Letestu as a 4th line C then you truly do have depth. You also have great flexibility in terms of offense and defensive contributions.

raventalon40

OilClog:
Hall/Nuge/Drai
Lucic/Con/Yak
Zak/Mark/Pak
Xxx/Lander/Hendo

Klef/Buff
Sekera/Hamonic
Davidson/Reinhart
Gryba

Nurse pissed off in minors.

Purcell is dealt, Pou is dealt, Drai moves to the wing, Nuge hits 50pts.

Ebs/Fayne to NYI for Hamonic/Oko.. Chai lets the latter walk in the off season.

Schultz shipped to the Rangers when they deal Yandle, Chia will create a bidding war between the Bruins, Wings, and Rangers for Schultz. Odd as it sounds

Chia will successfully land his big, tough, fill in the blanks.

I think it’s time to trade Lander for another struggling fringe NHLer. After the season mind you. Maybe Lander for a project D. I’d rather fill that 4th line spot with a veteran UFA center (similar to Gordon, but cheaper). Hell maybe even an RFA tweener via trade. Then we can open up the 4th line winger spots for our own prospects to battle for roster spots at TC.

3-4 Line Upgrades over Lander:

UFA Off-season Potentials:
Tuomo Ruutu
Shawn Matthias
Darren Helm
Dominic Moore

RFA, Trade Potentials:
Brayden Schenn, can play anywhere from the 2nd to the 4th line
Casey Czikas, a punishing hitter, perfect fit for 3/4 line
Andrew Shaw, a role player with playoff experience

anonymous

I’d rather ship Ebs to Anaheim. If a package of Vatanan/Cogliano was the return, I’d throw in small pieces to make it work.

Trading Cogs is still one of my least favorite moves the modern Oilers have ever made.

Professor Q

Lowetide,

Paigin Dr. Feelgood?

Diesel

What is the reasonable timeline for a Paigin test drive?

LoDog

Since everyone is in bed and I own this thread Paigin is 6th in team scoring and #1 obv for dmen,

6’06” to boot.
PS Fuck you Bookje or whatever your name is.

LoDog

admiralmark:
Anybody following the Twitter convo between Friedman and Staples?

https://twitter.com/dstaples/status/693170471701884929

Interesting. I maintain that eberle spare parts for shat and a dman + for hamonic is the route.

admiralmark

Anybody following the Twitter convo between Friedman and Staples?

https://twitter.com/dstaples/status/693170471701884929

LoDog

SwedishPoster:
Paigin with two more helpers yesterday. He doesn’t look like he’s going to slow down.

That pick has chia all ovet it imo. What say you?

Walter Sobchak

I can’t see RNH going anywhere this summer.

Snow HAS to trade Hamonic, preferably for another defensmen, I can’t see Chirelli trading his best winger for a player who will never return to NY.

Doesn’t make a lot of sense, why trade equal when the ice is already tilted?
What Chirelli should be offering is players like Davidson & Yakupov as opposed to Eberle.

I believe this to be the better offer that ether Vancouver or Win could do.

I’m also not convinced the Oilers deal Purcell. (just a hunch)

SwedishPoster

Paigin with two more helpers yesterday. He doesn’t look like he’s going to slow down.

GCW_69

JDï™: You should enter ON’s trade proposal contest.

Just saying that if snow really needs a winger to play with Tavares, there is a deal to be made there that works for both parties. Hamonic is going to go and the islanders are so deep at centre they could let Strome go, or Nelson. Not sure Gryba is enough to even out the trade, but maybe, and he plays the side that is weakened by Hamonic’s departure. Or maybe they need to add a draft pick or Schultz with salary retained on both Gryba and Schultz, but there is a deal to be had there.

AsiaOil

You know if they don’t have room for Pitlick on the 50 man roster (and they should) then I hope they offer him an AHL deal and a real shot at an NHL roster slot. As many have said – he always “looks like” an NHL player and he’s had the worst luck of any guy I can remember. Maybe it’s not luck – maybe it’s just the way he is – but I still feel like there is a bottom 6 role in his future. We all have favorites and Pitlick is my own beat up little engine that never seems to make it over the hill.

dangilitis:
Pitlick has more lives than a cat, and I mean that in the nicest possible way.

If a RW is traded at the deadline, I would love nothing more than to see him come up and play out the season (and possibly NA career) up on the bigs, with a string of consecutive games without being plagued by injury.

AsiaOil

Sorry to disagree my friend – but you are absolutely incorrect on this point. Perhaps you forget the zaibatsu which evolved into keiretsu business conglomerates that provided banking and financial services in the 1980s Japan’s Bubble Economy. Japan Inc (as this form of crony capitalism was known in the west) took on massive debt and enormous ill-advised risks in the go-go days of the 1980s where Japan seemed to go from strength to strength. But….

“Overconfidence and the Bank of Japan’s loose monetary policy in the mid-to-late 1980s led to aggressive speculation in domestic stocks and real estate, pushing the prices of these assets to previously unimaginable levels. From 1985 to 1989, Japan’s Nikkei stock index tripled to 39,000 and accounted for more than one third of the world’s stock market capitalization (Economist, 2011). The keiretsu conglomerates’ practice of cross-holding each other’s shares played a significant role in boosting stock prices and caused Japanese corporate wealth to balloon along with stock prices. In addition, many Japanese corporations practiced a corporate invention known as “zaitech” or “financial engineering,” in which speculative profits and capital gains were reported as income on corporate financial statements. Zaitech-practicing firms obtained low-interest loans and used them to purchase stocks and real estate, which surged and helped the firms to report blowout earnings as long as asset prices continued to rise. At one point, it was estimated that an incredible 40-50% of Japanese corporate earnings were derived from zaitech. Real estate prices experienced similar manic action, with prices in Tokyo’s prime neighborhoods rising to levels that made them 350 times more expensive than comparable land in Manhattan.” (Jesse Columbo, Japan’s Bubble Economy of the 1980s).

Sound familiar?

The Bank of Japan finally tried to tightened interest rates to stem the bubble but all that did is cause it to burst. Unprofitable and debt-ridden firms (zombie companies) were kept afloat by government bailouts. Japan is still dealing with the fall-out of the debt produced by the bursting of the 1980s bubble and the deflationary forces that followed it’s demise. The debt was not public originally – it was private – but was gradually pulled onto the pubic books through bailouts and monetization. They destroyed the public balance sheet by trying to save the zombie banks and companies who were drowning in debt instead of letting them go broke.

So there is lots and lots that the Japanese experience can teach us – and we are following the EXACT same play book. Leveraged speculation in stocks and real estate, financial engineering, zombie banks, moving private debt onto the public books to save debt ridden “too big to fail companies, monetization of the debt, forcing interest rates down to prevent default etc etc etc. Take some time and study bubble economics and it’s Austrian fundamentals. You don’t have to accept all of it – but Keynesian economics has all the credibility of a junkie looking for his next fix – and the Japanese economy is a fantastic example of Keynesian policies producing nothing but failure and even bigger problems down the road.

Cheers – Asia

G Money: See, this is what I think is interesting about Japan (and where I don’t agree with you).

I believe this relationship is reverse from what you’ve stated.That’s why I rambled on for so long about Japan’s demographics.

The deflation is not (IMO) being produced by the debt.

JD_Wry

Hey you don’t know me

But you don’t like me

dangilitis

Pitlick has more lives than a cat, and I mean that in the nicest possible way.

If a RW is traded at the deadline, I would love nothing more than to see him come up and play out the season (and possibly NA career) up on the bigs, with a string of consecutive games without being plagued by injury.

719

Looks like Winquist is having another strong night.

719

As far as retaining salary, please remember we have already retained salary on Scrivens. As per CBA rules we are only allowed to retain salary on two more players we send out.

JD_Wry

Did he say ‘holy shot’?

jm363561

kinger_OIL:
– How ’bout Okposo, Hamonic for Ebs, Jultz (we pay most of his salary) Nurse (try Davidson and a 2nd?, then Nurse?)

You must be joking.

OilClog

Hall/Nuge/Drai
Lucic/Con/Yak
Zak/Mark/Pak
Xxx/Lander/Hendo

Klef/Buff
Sekera/Hamonic
Davidson/Reinhart
Gryba

Nurse pissed off in minors.

Purcell is dealt, Pou is dealt, Drai moves to the wing, Nuge hits 50pts.

Ebs/Fayne to NYI for Hamonic/Oko.. Chai lets the latter walk in the off season.

Schultz shipped to the Rangers when they deal Yandle, Chia will create a bidding war between the Bruins, Wings, and Rangers for Schultz. Odd as it sounds

Chia will successfully land his big, tough, fill in the blanks.

jm363561

slopitch:
Ya I would think something like okposo, hamonic for Ebs, Schultz (oilers retain all of schultz’ salary this year) would make sense for both teams given the situations.
=====

This seems to work at both a playing and financial level. If we can resign Okposo (who I know little about) for his rumoured ask of 6m it is pretty much a financial wash. However, this seems more of a post season deal, not something for February. We shall see.

JD_Wry

Former Oiler… man!

Pouzar

JDï™:
Pouzar,

Trust you to deliver a sobering thought.

Debbie Downer I is.

JD_Wry

Oh my – Khaira!

flyfish1168

719:
As much as I want him to come here, Stamkos will go to the highest bidder.He has referenced the deals and Toews and Kane signed with Chicago several times, most recently today, specifically mentioning 10 million.I am sure the Anze Kopitar deal only cemented him further in his position.As Callahan’s agent said, sometime it is an ego thing and the guy wants as much or more than another guy got.I think that is the case with Stamkos, can’t say I wouldn’t do the same in his shoes.Its a short career and you should make as much as possible while you can.

But the difference is he doesn’t have a ring. If that is the way he feels I would not want him on my team. Shows me that he is a selfish player. JMHO

719

As much as I want him to come here, Stamkos will go to the highest bidder. He has referenced the deals and Toews and Kane signed with Chicago several times, most recently today, specifically mentioning 10 million. I am sure the Anze Kopitar deal only cemented him further in his position. As Callahan’s agent said, sometime it is an ego thing and the guy wants as much or more than another guy got. I think that is the case with Stamkos, can’t say I wouldn’t do the same in his shoes. Its a short career and you should make as much as possible while you can.

JD_Wry

Pouzar,

Trust you to deliver a sobering thought.

Pouzar

JDï™:
What do I do if this lasts for more than four hours?

Watch some Jultzin?

flyfish1168

kooler:
Purcell to Hawks?

For Mark McNeil ? Neither player have excellent acceleration

JD_Wry

Lowetide:
Kassian just beat hell out of some guy, hope he didnt hurt himself.

Lowetide:
Zack Kassian is a very good player. Made a fantastic pass on his back hand just now

What do I do if this lasts for more than four hours?

Pouzar

Ryan Holt ‏@CondorsHolty 1m1 minute ago
Kassian is terrorizing the Moose. Hunt’s clapper will solve the PP issue. Pitlick and Winquist keep it going. Good start.

Pouzar

kooler:
Purcell to Hawks?

Eklund says so…so he’s safe for now.

LadiesloveSmid

who plays 3C next year? I imagine Lander is gone or 13th F. Helm, Matthias?

Stamkos? 😉

kooler

Purcell to Hawks?

böök¡je

kinger_OIL:
böök¡je,

There was a good interview with Bill Daly on this, and a few of his comments:

“But certainly we made our bed with respect to the fan engagement part of this where fans were free to make a choice as to who they would like to see participate. Once you have a voting mechanism in place, as long as there is nothing illegitimate about the voting process, you have to respect the vote.

“We’re looking forward to have John there, I know he is looking forward to it, I know his family is looking forward to it.”

“It’s an all-star game. It’s not life and death.”

– Scott is a very grounded intelligent hockey guy, that Tribune post fabulous, and Daly’s comments reasonable.

– Let’s get on with it: we’d all do what Scott is doing.

Sure, after they shipped him to Newfoundland.

G Money

MrEd: if I’m Snow I’m not making this trade straight up.

The only reason this trade occurs at all is because Hamonic has requested it (and for seemingly honourable reasons). Snow either honours that request or deals with an increasingly unhappy player.

It’s a no-win situation for him, as it was for Lowe post-Pronger. The fact that the Oilers are ON the preferred list rather than on the no-fly list (for a change) is a super bonus.

This is why he’s available.

The fact that he wants to come west severely limits the number of possible bidders, which is what creates a potentially significant discount to his real trade value.

If he doesn’t make the request, you aren’t prying him off the Island for anything short of Hall or McDavid.

G Money

AsiaOil: o try fend off deflation produced by the overwhelming debt.

See, this is what I think is interesting about Japan (and where I don’t agree with you).

I believe this relationship is reverse from what you’ve stated. That’s why I rambled on for so long about Japan’s demographics.

The deflation is not (IMO) being produced by the debt.

The deflation precedes the debt. Deflation has been a recurring theme in the Japanese economy since 1980s. Throughout the 80s and even half the 90s, Japan’s debt was under 20% of GDP. I believe it is demographics driving the economy which drives the deflation.

The debt has been incurred trying to fight off deflation. They started earnestly in the late 90s (when debt was still comparably modest – 30% of GDP or so) and have run it up to 200%+ since then.

None of which makes sense – no economy should be able to do that without triggering hyperinflation – except, as you and Boho have pointed out, Japan is also unusual in that so much of its debt is held internally (by an aging nation of savers). So getting a bead on ‘net debt’ and comparing that number to other countries seems impossible.

It seems to me then that the opposite of what you’re saying is also going to happen in that defaulting on enormous amounts debt (which seems inevitable) will be (inherently) deflationary. It takes enormous chunks out of the money supply AND slows the velocity of money.

So all that deflation that they’ve been staving off for so many years will come home to roost in one fell swoop.

What happens then? No idea. Can you have a Great Deflationary Depression with 100% employment?

All of which gets back to my original point – I don’t think anything of what is or is going to happen in Japan offers that much of a lesson to the rest of the developed world from a policy perspective, because almost all of their situation is so fundamentally different from most developed nations. OTHER than the necessity of immigration offsetting the Great Boomer Wave of Retirement … otherwise the West follows that same curve.

AsiaOil

I want RNH between Hall and Drai next year. It gives Drai another year to mature and CMD another year of experience. If Drai is on right wing with Yak and Kassian I think we are big, skilled and tough. If we feel like we need another center – then a guy like Berglund in STL – he’s big, decent offensively, probably “getable”. Shultz and Purcell for Berglund with us retaining money on Purcell to make if work if necessary – gets them some offense with Purcell and a poor man’s Shattenkirk if they trade him in a separate deal. I’m not sold on Purcell next year – sell high and wish him well after a job well done.

Hall RNH Drai
Pou CMD Yak
Hendricks Berglund Kassian

That gives us some combination of Eberle, Purcell, Shultz, Gryba, Fayne, and the #1 pick to get us a #1 RHD and a #3 center. What ever is not required to get the dman I use to try pick up a bigger vet center like Berglund and/or sell for picks to restock the prospect cupboard. I’d expect Chia will be both buying and selling aggressively this year.

Lowetide: Hall-Draisaitl-Purcell
Pouliot-McDavid-Kassian
Lander-Nuge-???