DOWN TO THE WATERLINE

by Lowetide

I am currently embarking on some trade deadline stuff for ON, and it offers a glimpse into what might be out there for the Oilers at the deadline. I did a ‘players to watch for in the AHL’ by division and got a few right (Reinhart!) although the timing was a little off. One of the things we might be able to do from this (I will list all of last deadline’s links below) is identify some future Oilers. Let’s begin by listing the players we can agree may be in play at the trade deadline:

  • RW Teddy Purcell
  • D Justin Schultz
  • D Mark Fayne
  • D Eric Gryba
  • L Lauri Korpikoski
  • F Matt Hendricks

I think that is probably the list, final two may be reaching but I do recall interest in Hendricks one year ago. It is also true that one year of contract is less a problem than two, and as Paul Almeida pointed out on SSE yesterday, Korpikoski has a reputation for being an effective veteran (he is not, in fact). So, what areas do the Oilers need help in?

  • Effective RH defensemen
  • No. 3 center (Lander’s spot)
  • Scoring wingers (depending on what side Kassian plays, and how the summer goes)

Here are last season’s AHL target posts:

I thought, for this morning, it might be interesting to look at one specific team in the NHL, identify an area where they are deep, and see if there could be a gem or two (Clendening would certainly qualify under this rule). Since I will be doing all teams for ON, let’s drill down on one this morning and I choose the San Diego Gulls (coach: Dallas Eakins!) who are a fascinating team this year. Here is what I wrote last year:

  • D Josh Manson: 6.03, 217 and the pedigree for a horror movie. He’s a very physical player doesn’t bring a lot of offense but on name alone he’s a curio.
  • L William Karlsson: Swedish skill forward has been a terrific find for the Ducks. Great skater and passer, he’s 35GP, 7-14-21 in the AHL and has had some NHL time this year.
  • C Nicolas Kerdiles: Smart, physical player with a range of skills. This is my favorite type of player, he could succeed in the NHL in several different ways. 49GP, 9-17-26 as an AHL rookie.

After I wrote that, Josh Manson began to emerge as a legit NHL defenseman, and now, a year later, he is one of the reasons the Ducks are overstocked on defense (a highly unusual situation for this era of NHL hockey). Karlsson was correctly identified as trade bait, as he was sent to Columbus for James Wisniewski. Kerdiles has played only 31 games since that was written and appears to have stalled as an NHL prospect.

THE DUCKS AT THE DEADLINE

  • D Brandon Montour 39, 6-26-32. He is RH, he is an effective power-play defender (PP 4-19-23, he leads the league in PP assists). He has a very good shot, but does bring some chaos, I would be very pleased to see the Oilers trade for him at the deadline or in summer.
  • L Nick Ritchie 30, 15-11-26. An emerging power forward, he is exactly the kind of player the Ducks employ successfully. I can’t imagine the pricetag to get him out of their system, but am fairly confident Edmonton will not deliver the asking price. A valuable player.
  • R Stefan Noesen 39, 4-12-16. Regarded as a substantial offensive player, he suffered a torn ACL and MCL in 2013, and progress back has been slow. He might be a solid ‘buy low’ bet for Edmonton.

SHOULD WE EXPECT A SPECIFIC PLAYER TYPE?

I suspect we are reaching the end of the line with Anton Lander. He is a confounding player, as there are things about him that have value. I can think of a half dozen point-blank chances for the Swede this year, none have cashed. I do think the Oilers value some of the things he can do (Lander has some nice traits in the offensive zone, honest) but at some point—maybe at the deadline—we may see Edmonton choose to move on from him.

Lander is replaceable as a center based on his poor offense, and there was a time when the winger position might seem a reasonable option. Now? I think Kassian—Pakarinen and Korpikoski—Hendricks may eat his lunch on that option. Dire moments for Lander, if PC is looking for an upgrade there are productive AHL players who might be worth a try.

OILERS TEMPLATE FOR 2016-17

If they can find a defenseman using only draft picks and prospects, I think the Oilers are pretty much there for their team next fall. That is a good thing. Why? If Peter Chiarelli can arrive at summer with only two holes to fill, the chances of succeeding would seem to be greater (or at least, less can go wrong, in theory).

  • Hall—Draisaltl—Eberle
  • Pouliot—McDavid—Yakupov
  • Kassian—Nuge—Pakarinen
  • Korpikoski—Letestu—Hendricks
  • Klefbom—Sekera
  • Davidson—????
  • Nurse—????
  • Talbot plus Nilsson or Brossoit

Draft picks, Reinhart and the ten miles of lefties, roll ends and remnants. Can that get Edmonton two real RH’s on defense? I would rather go that route than trade established NHL players. Get good players, keep good players. That damned Bill Torrey-Al Arbour combo had it right, ladies.

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[…] are at least a half dozen players that could be dealt by the Oilers come deadline […]

[…] are at least a half dozen players that could be dealt by the Oilers come deadline […]

[…] are at least a half dozen players that could be dealt by the Oilers come deadline […]

[…] Lowetide: Oilers who could be available at the trade deadline: Teddy Purcell, Justin Schultz, Mark Fayne, Eric Gryba, Lauri Korpikoski and Matt Hendricks. […]

Bruce McCurdy

Oil2Oilers: I came for a lady in fancy glitter pants once…

Haha you read that sentence the exact same way I did.

N64

http://www.cbc.ca/m/sports/hockey/nhl/john-scott-scores-twice-nhl-all-star-game-1.3428025

“During a Twitter vote late in the game for MVP, Scott was not listed as an option. But fans took it upon themselves to select him once again, casting their vote for the 6-foot-8 forward with five goals in 285 career NHL games.

Fans at Bridgestone Arena booed the options — Roberto Luongo, Johnny Gaudreau, Taylor Hall —and yelled for Scott. Teammates lifted him on their shoulders while fans chanted “MVP!” and then Scott was announced as the MVP and presented with a Honda Pilot Touring SUV”

Not sure what the final votes for Captain were but JG was 2nd when I looked and given the play by play plugging today Scott’s greatest accomplishment may have been preventing 1 goal Johnny from being Captain MVP.

(Hall and *spit* Gaudreau looked great together.)

LoDog

Oh and I wasn’t sure what I thought of the the John Scott situation until the game today and I can admit a bit of dust may have hit my eye when he won the mvp.

spoiler

I don’t know if they’ll use the exact same format again… may have to cut the periods or add a couple of players, but to my eye the final was low scoring because the players were gassed. Maybe lactic acid buildup or something… not sure anyone would get on a bike during the break.

G Money

böök¡je,

True enough, though the two goals were a wonderfully unexpected addition to the script.

N64

böök¡je: Well, I actually don’t think it would have been nearly as big of a story if they would have left him in Pheonix and embraced his place in the game.He really became the people’s hero when Bettman tried to banish him.

Next up. Montreal trades him back for future considerations.

böök¡je

G Money:
The NHL did their best but they couldn’t fuck up the best NHL All Star Game storyline in years!

Well, I actually don’t think it would have been nearly as big of a story if they would have left him in Pheonix and embraced his place in the game. He really became the people’s hero when Bettman tried to banish him.

Don’t mind me

I actually saw body contact and sticks on the body. I guess 1 MM will do that for you.

Ca$h-McMoney!

So two thoughts:

1. Best all star game I’ve ever seen.

2. Arizona could have made a lot of money off John Scott. Good thing they’re so flush with cash.

Don’t mind me

John Scott All Star game MVP, ha ha that’s frickin awesome!

G Money

The NHL did their best but they couldn’t fuck up the best NHL All Star Game storyline in years!

Seismic Source

I have to admit…..Best ASG ever

jp

Congrats to John Scott and co.!!

A very very cool story in the end!! This will make quite the story for his kids!

Oil2Oilers

I am glad Johnny Gaudrea won the game for the Pacific

Seismic Source

lol…they do have Johnny Gaudreau.

Younger Oil

Man, I’m surprised this announcer can talk this clearly with Gaudreau’s dick in his mouth this whole time.

square_wheels

böök¡je,

Chris Stapleton was on SNL a few weeks back…..jeebus, he is really friggin good.

böök¡je

Thank God for Johnny Gaudreau or this thing would have been like 27-0 for the Atlantic.

Also, why is there a coaches challenge in the All Star Game.

Ca$h-McMoney!

Seismic Source:
I just pulled my groin

I mean it was a nice save, but that’s taking it a little far for me personally.

LoDog

I’d like to keep all our forwards too LT but doesnt at least one 6 million guy have to go for cap reasons to fit 2 top 4 rhd in the mix?

And to further beat my dead horse, PC paid a good price for Reinhart and believes in him, dont see him being traded anytime soon. Nurse on the other hand…

G Money

Hall needs to score another goal or two so that Mini J can get his well deserved MVP.

böök¡je

square_wheels:
böök¡je,

For a devout punk guy, I secretly loved my one night in Nashville with a gaggle of colleagues.

Live music in a dingy bar is always fine by me, but it’s rarely pop country in those venues, more Waylon/Johnny/Merle.

I very much enjoy what some people call ‘classic country’.

Oil2Oilers

böök¡je: Its Nashville, they just come for the ladies in fancy glitter gold pants.

I came for a lady in fancy glitter pants once…

Oil2Oilers

marty62:
Is it me or are the stands half empty?

Fans are dressed like seat cushions. No really.

square_wheels

böök¡je,

For a devout punk guy, I secretly loved my one night in Nashville with a gaggle of colleagues.

Live music in a dingy bar is always fine by me, but it’s rarely pop country in those venues, more Waylon/Johnny/Merle.

Ryan

Woodguy: All that is true and none of it refutes my point.

DrySaddle’s offence is all coming with Hall.

Yes, he TOI away is very tiny, but we can’t control that.

You proclaimed DrySaddle to be better than RNH today and you just don’t have enough evidence to declare that.

What little evidence we do have using this year’s numbers is that DrySaddle produces very little away from Hall so its probably best to keep the crowns in the cupboard for now.

I didn’t proclaim Dry to be better, it was an open not a rhetorical question.

square_wheels

böök¡je,

I would love it if they hired Gwar by accident . Just spraying blood everywhere in their “hockey” equipment while Bettman’s PA frantically tries to cut the power with an axe.

G Money

What’s with the defensive classic? Have the coaches already managed to choke the offense out of the ASG 3v3? Or is it that one team has an hour more rest than the other a factor?

böök¡je

marty62:
Is it me or are the stands half empty?

Its Nashville, they just come for the ladies in fancy glitter gold pants.

böök¡je

John Scott almost scored an own goal there – would have kind of wrecked the story.

G Money

Gasp, someone just pumped Hall’s tires!??

Must have been Elliotte.

marty62

Is it me or are the stands half empty?

N64

böök¡je: Guys – John Scott!

Hall already plugged giving him a new contract.

who

Water Fire,

You are bang on. So many people here seem to think we need to trade the pick for immediate help because the Oilers window to compete will close in 4 or 5 years. Nothing could be further from the truth unless management decides to trade the pick. If the assets are managed correctly this team should be able to compete for a cup for the next 10 years. The best scenario for this year is for the Oil to continue to lose a bunch of 1 goal games and cement that top 3 pick. There is no point in finishing 20th.

G Money

böök¡je,

Hilarious, I had *exactly* that thought.

N64

böök¡je:
I think we can conclude that there is really a bias against the Oilers in the media.

It’s like refs shining up to veterans. Every one wants to associate with the cool kids. Was surprised to see Hall on the arena wrap.

böök¡je

Woodguy: All that is true and none of it refutes my point.

DrySaddle’s offence is all coming with Hall.

Yes, he TOI away is very tiny, but we can’t control that.

You proclaimed DrySaddle to be better than RNH today and you just don’t have enough evidence to declare that.

What little evidence we do have using this year’s numbers is that DrySaddle produces very little away from Hall so its probably best to keep the crowns in the cupboard for now.

Guys – John Scott!

böök¡je

This lady sings funny.

Country pop music is the worst stuff ever, anywhere, always. It’s like the Donald Trump of music.

Woodguy

Ryan: It’s sort of funny that I knew exactly where you were headed with this before you even replied.I know you way too well for someone whom I’ve never met.

First, I think there are a few issues with looking at Dry apart this year–Most notably sample size since Dry played 86% of his ES toi with Hall this year.

Secondly, you get kind of a funny result with using the GF60 stat instead of the Points/60 stat.GF60 gives the goals stored per sixty while the player is on the ice while points/60 gives the actual point production for players while they’re on the ice.

For RNH, up to this season, he’s pretty much been attached to the hip of Taylor Hall in terms of 5v5 deployment.Despite this, he’s never really produced at top line levels at even strength.

RNH P/60

15-16: 1.52
14-15: 2.01
13-14: 1.56
12-13: 1.29
11-12: 1.98

It’s sort of interesting that his GF60 that you use looks good with and without hall, but his actual 5v5 p/60 isn’t great pretty much ever even when he mostly has played with Hall for the bulk of his career.

This season, Dry has a 5v5/60 of 2.73.

If you go back to your wowy data, Hall has had a higher GF60 apart from the Nuge every year except this one.

Hall and Nuge / Hall apart / Nuge apart GF60
15-16:3.00 / 2.86 / 2.17
14-15: 2.48 / 2.9 / 2.86
13-14: 2.55 / 3.28 / 2.33
12-13: 2.46 / 3.44 / 1.21
11-12: 2.67 / 2.92 / 3.27

From that data, It’s clear who’s zooming who in terms of Hall and Nuge.

Also in terms of the data this season, if you use Corsi instead of GF60.

Hall and Nuge together / Hall Apart / Nuge apart
51.7 / 53.4 / 45.5

Leon and Hall together / Hall apart / Leon apart

53.9 / 50.7 / 50.5

I know that the shine has started to come off Corsi analysis, but Nuge gets his teeth kicked in without Hall.Also, when was the last time we had a top line forward duo posting a positive ES corsi?

Either way, Leon’s played 529/617 minutes or basically 86% of his even strength toi with Hall this season,, so I would think his WOWY data for GF60 without Hall would suffer from far too small a sample to compare with RNH.

All we know is that even this season, he’s played better with Hall than RNH this year and especially RNH’s past seasons with Hall.

All that is true and none of it refutes my point.

DrySaddle’s offence is all coming with Hall.

Yes, he TOI away is very tiny, but we can’t control that.

You proclaimed DrySaddle to be better than RNH today and you just don’t have enough evidence to declare that.

What little evidence we do have using this year’s numbers is that DrySaddle produces very little away from Hall so its probably best to keep the crowns in the cupboard for now.

böök¡je

I think we can conclude that there is really a bias against the Oilers in the media.

N64

Lowetide: That Gaudreau, amazing.

Man if Seguin only had Gaudreau to feed him.

N64

Centre of attention:
Hall again. 2 goals 1 assist.

Who?

N64

G Money:
I especially like that Hall’s goal came after Seguin was stuffed.

So did the announcers. Seguin. Gibson. Gaudreau. Someone.

Seismic Source

I just pulled my groin

Centre of attention

That was a ridiculous save by Gibson.