BONA FIDE

by Lowetide

Cam Talbot is 80 starts into his NHL career and has a .926 save percentage. His .916 save percentage this season ranks him in a tie for No. 20 overall (with Tuukka Rask) among starters (I chose 20 or more starts). We are not at the point where we can assume a quality start every night, but if you look at the ‘by month’ progress I think we are headed in a good direction:

  • October .897
  • November .864
  • December .934
  • January .932

and he was .973 last night against the Blue Jackets. His cap hit next season jumps to $4.167M per year, so important to see the value. The Oilers this century have bled so many wins because goaltending, Talbot working out would be a very good arrow for Peter Chiarelli and his team building. I do wonder about next year’s backup, if they can get Laurent Brossoit on a one-way for less than $1 million (he is RFA) that might be a way to free up some cap room. A $5 million goalie tandem has some real appeal (Oilers are spending half that in 2015-16).

Luke Gazdic may be one of the final true enforcers to play in the NHL, there’s a sadness and finality to the story that touches us all. I have a friend whose Dad was one of the final calligraphers employed at the Globe and Mail, he tells a fantastic story about his being let go by the paper when the skill was no longer needed. I believe McLellan, suspect Gazdic will be back, but the day is coming when this player type no longer roams the earth. My beloved stay-at-home defensemen will soon be housed in the Don Awrey wing of the Memory Motel. He seems a nice fellow, hope it all works out for him. His roster spot goes to Brandon Davidson as of 10am tomorrow.

purcell capture

PURCELL

  • Pierre Lebrun: The Edmonton Oilers haven’t decided yet what they’ll do with pending UFA winger Teddy Purcell. The 30-year-old found some decent chemistry playing on a line with Taylor Hall and Leon Draisaitl this season, putting up 11 goals and 18 assists in 51 games. But with a deep forward group moving forward when healthy, I think the Oilers have to decide where their money is better spent. Do they re-sign him this month or trade him? Source

I don’t know about price, and the club does have Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov and (potentially) Zack Kassian right side, but for me Purcell is a guy worth pursuing. It may depend on what the potential return is at the deadline, but he is a productive player for this team and an actual NHL player.

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N64

Obiwan Eberle:
G Money,

You seem very capable in the analytics aspect….but on the programming side?specifically R language?there are some data scientists (ahem) who may be able to assist if you are looking to build a more structured format from JSON or even produce a product….just sayin….

Old thread. So he may have missed your offer. Try the contents section in his blog Oilers nerd alert. He”s on the Python side of the divide.

Melman

godot10:
One trades Purcell at the deadline, and revisits him in Julyafter one had redone the blueline at the draft and early in the free agent season.

One has to leave as much cap space open for pursuing D in June and early July.When that is done, Purcell and other veteran UFA’s can be considered.

This is the prudent course of action and Teddy can be sent away to have a playoff run with a smile and a “maybe we’ll see you back” chat.

The other option that moving him opens up is to try and fill his spot by getting a veteran 3C and move either Leon or RNH to the wing.

Obiwan Eberle

G Money,

You seem very capable in the analytics aspect….but on the programming side? specifically R language? there are some data scientists (ahem) who may be able to assist if you are looking to build a more structured format from JSON or even produce a product….just sayin….

N64

GCW_69: Why does every “don’t trade Nuge” article assume Chiarellieither won’t get a centre back as part of the trade our that he won’t add an appropriately paid 3C with the ability to play 2C when required via some other means? Boston always had good centre depth during his time there.

Because TMac and Chia both have have a history of more depth. 3C as 3C and 3 centres in the top 6 is right up their alley. Guess what. Some have bad days. Some get injured. Some need time away from the Centre dot on one side or the other.

GCW_69

Romulus Apotheosis:
something short and stupid on how stupid it would be to trade RNH

https://romtable.wordpress.com/2016/02/04/lookingforyou/

Why does every “don’t trade Nuge” article assume Chiarelli either won’t get a centre back as part of the trade our that he won’t add an appropriately paid 3C with the ability to play 2C when required via some other means? Boston always had good centre depth during his time there.

PhrankLee

Yeah,

Well my garage fuckin reeks. Reeeeeeekssssss…

Fuck the Sens. Going to the game in Ottawa tonight.

Pretty psyched. Both sons with me 19 and 16.

Seriously, fuck the Senators.

And the hockey team in Ottawa as well.

Skoylers!!

GCW_69

Teddy’s peak production seems to align with contract years. If he is going to be resigned, one would hope it’s a one year deal.

N64

Lois Lowe: You could just let your garage gently weep.

Something familiar about that….

Every mistake, we must surely be learning
Still my garage gently weeps

Same blokes that recorded Good D Sundial

Ca$h-McMoney!

Lowetide:
Cash: I didn’t say anything about overpaying Purcell.

I understand. I was merely pointing out the catchiness of one of your preferred sayings. I think it gets applied a little too liberally (by others) to cases like Mr. Purcell’s.

PhrankLee

Romulus Apotheosis:
Thanks for the kind words folks.

Maybe like a protective father, I’m just more deeply in anticipation for the coming Leon Slump.

The beauty of that slump is that with Connor in the line up and RNH returning he can go through it like a normal NHL player. Not a 19 yr old who has the dreams of an entire fanbase breathing down his neck.

The McDavid Umbrella.

Or the McDavid cone of forgiveness. if I may.

PhrankLee

Romulus Apotheosis:
something short and stupid on how stupid it would be to trade RNH

https://romtable.wordpress.com/2016/02/04/lookingforyou/

Nice job, Rom. I agree entirely.

Just when we get depth everyone wants to trade the experienced, baptized via fire 22 yr old C that has 4 years NHL experience. 4! At 22 yrs old… About whom can this also be said? Few if any.

It’s just crazy how stupid that is.

Professor Q

Romulus Apotheosis: It’s certainly possible that Chia thinks RNH is expendable… however I think that is very unlikely.

Here, I’d like to distinguish between the idea of a player being “expendable” and the idea that a player is “untouchable” (or close to it).

I don’t take to the idea that any player is “untouchable”… a GM’s job is to listen to offers and to consider all the puzzle pieces.

On that wise, I don’t think the idea of an RNH trade is necessarily misplaced. Sure, some combination of moves could potentially swap out RNH and swap in another really good C and the D we have been looking for.

That … acknowledging that maybe out there a trade works that involves RNH … is one thing.

It’s a thing that acknowledge that

1. “untouchable” is largely a silly concept

2. The Oilers’ Center depth cannot afford to lose RNH without an active plan to replace him with a really damn good C

3. 19 and 20 year old Cs, regardless of talent are going to struggle and there will be injuries

4. the rush to offload players at the first sign of skill duplication is silly.

5. and, of course, the concept of “expendable”, i.e., something that can be lost without suffering any need for replacement, is not one that reasonably be applied to RNH.

Quoted for very good points.

Professor Q

kooler: Although i would like to keep RNH and Eberle….I would put Eberle out there before RNH.RNH takes face offs, blocks shots, 200′ game….3on3 wizard. Eberle has great skill but not well rounded like RNH. If there’s a trade to get a top D, Eberle has to be the one.

Although with the Subban rumours rumbling…what might work for that to happen with Edmonton?

Professor Q

G Money:
Spoke too soon. Goddamn NHL discontinued their schedule page, which means my goddamn player dashboard loading programs don’t work.

At least I’ve got a line on how to replace it, but holy shit I hate wading through JSON.

https://statsapi.web.nhl.com/api/v1/schedule?startDate=2015-10-03&endDate=2016-02-08&expand=schedule.teams,schedule.linescore,schedule.broadcasts,schedule.ticket,schedule.game.content.media.epg&leaderCategories=&site=en_nhlCA&teamId=22

Mr. G! Language!

G Money

Spoke too soon. Goddamn NHL discontinued their schedule page, which means my goddamn player dashboard loading programs don’t work.

At least I’ve got a line on how to replace it, but holy shit I hate wading through JSON.

https://statsapi.web.nhl.com/api/v1/schedule?startDate=2015-10-03&endDate=2016-02-08&expand=schedule.teams,schedule.linescore,schedule.broadcasts,schedule.ticket,schedule.game.content.media.epg&leaderCategories=&site=en_nhlCA&teamId=22

jp

Gerta Rauss: They have top men working on it right now

Petry. Sigh.

Those forensic reports are still flowing in.

kooler

haters: I wonder, if there were 2 types of trades out there which would you prefer
(Rnh+Davidson/Shultz..ect—Larrson+Henrique)
Or
(Rnh—-Shattenkirk)

Myself I would prefer the first trade. A lesser Defensive prospect but like you say, the addition of a center that could handle tough minutes and Pk more effectively at a more reasonable cost.

But I would do either trade in a heartbeat because I really tire of seeing wasted potential due to ineffective blue.

Not saying Rnh is expendable at all btw. Love the nuge.
That’s why you get more than full value in any deal. Or damn close.

Although i would like to keep RNH and Eberle….I would put Eberle out there before RNH. RNH takes face offs, blocks shots, 200′ game….3on3 wizard. Eberle has great skill but not well rounded like RNH. If there’s a trade to get a top D, Eberle has to be the one.

Gerta Rauss

jp: We can be sure reports have been submitted. What happens from there we can only guess.

They have top men working on it right now

jp

DRFNsuperstar:
jp,

Do analysts get invited to board meetings? He probably submits a report too…god I hate typing this…Howson

While writing that I was actually picturing a few pieces of paper, representing Dellow, on he table in front of Chiarelli.

We can be sure reports have been submitted. What happens from there we can only guess.

Extend Russell

Romulus Apotheosis: It’s certainly possible that Chia thinks RNH is expendable… however I think that is very unlikely.

Here, I’d like to distinguish between the idea of a player being “expendable” and the idea that a player is “untouchable” (or close to it).

I don’t take to the idea that any player is “untouchable”… a GM’s job is to listen to offers and to consider all the puzzle pieces.

On that wise, I don’t think the idea of an RNH trade is necessarily misplaced. Sure, some combination of moves could potentially swap out RNH and swap in another really good C and the D we have been looking for.

That … acknowledging that maybe out there a trade works that involves RNH … is one thing.

It’s a thing that acknowledge that

1. “untouchable” is largely a silly concept

2. The Oilers’ Center depth cannot afford to lose RNH without an active plan to replace him with a really damn good C

3. 19 and 20 year old Cs, regardless of talent are going to struggle and there will be injuries

4. the rush to offload players at the first sign of skill duplication is silly.

5. and, of course, the concept of “expendable”, i.e., something that can be lost without suffering any need for replacement, is not one that reasonably be applied to RNH.

I wonder, if there were 2 types of trades out there which would you prefer
(Rnh+Davidson/Shultz..ect—Larrson+Henrique)
Or
(Rnh—-Shattenkirk)

Myself I would prefer the first trade. A lesser Defensive prospect but like you say, the addition of a center that could handle tough minutes and Pk more effectively at a more reasonable cost.

But I would do either trade in a heartbeat because I really tire of seeing wasted potential due to ineffective blue.

Not saying Rnh is expendable at all btw. Love the nuge.
That’s why you get more than full value in any deal. Or damn close.

geowal

Romulus Apotheosis:
something short and stupid on how stupid it would be to trade RNH

https://romtable.wordpress.com/2016/02/04/lookingforyou/

Maybe they’ll miss his minutes (24:32 a game). But not for long. The Oilers have young defensive talents coming up and just traded penalty-prone press-box regular Sean Brown to Boston for another one in Bobby Allen.

Read the whole thing. I’m still waiting to find out who the supposed up and coming defenseman were! Any hints?

DRFNsuperstar

kinger_OIL:
DRFNsuperstar,

– Coyotes don’t count: they are run by the league….And neither player really anything much.Maybe I should ask how many good players get traded and then come back?

They both garnered more in trade at last year’s deadline than Purcell will this year…

godot10

One trades Purcell at the deadline, and revisits him in July after one had redone the blueline at the draft and early in the free agent season.

One has to leave as much cap space open for pursuing D in June and early July. When that is done, Purcell and other veteran UFA’s can be considered.

kinger_OIL

DRFNsuperstar,

– Coyotes don’t count: they are run by the league…. And neither player really anything much. Maybe I should ask how many good players get traded and then come back?

Woogie63

Lowetide,

Not sure who you would trust to play RHD shut down role. I think he has been playing effective minutes, that will be hard to replace with the current crew.

Lois Lowe

Lowetide: Honestly. I don’t know whether to weep or kill my garage.

You could just let your garage gently weep.

DRFNsuperstar

Rondo,

Exactly, it has all been a pilgrimage. We have The One, and he’s better than the Jet Li version

Gerta Rauss

A buyout or burying the Finn in the AHL is an option if push comes to shove wrt the cap.
A far from perfect solution but either option isn’t terribly onerous.

I think we have to pencil him in for next year though. Chia brought him in, i think he’s on the roster.
==
I’ve liked Purcell’s game since he arrived in Edm, but trading him at the deadline is the play imo

I think a pick in the 50s (late 2nd round) is fair value(with salary retained or a contract coming back)

After the draft/July 1 and you’ve got your D sorted out you can give Purcell a call-I don’t believe he’ll be among the guys that sign in the first few days of free agency.

DRFNsuperstar

jp,

Do analysts get invited to board meetings? He probably submits a report too…god I hate typing this…Howson

Rondo

fifthcartel:
Today, Stauffer said he believes the Oilers could have got Petry under 5M if they were more proactive, “roughly the same price point as Klefbom”, but they liked Justin Schultz more.

I mean, we all knew this, but it’s still sad to hear.

Yes but if he signed Petry maybe no McDavid

DRFNsuperstar

kinger_OIL:
– How many players get traded during season, then re-sign with the team that traded them in the summer?1 out of 50? I ‘m thinking Reasoner did with the Oil.So once in ten years?

Vermette and Michalek this summer…

kinger_OIL

– How many players get traded during season, then re-sign with the team that traded them in the summer? 1 out of 50? I ‘m thinking Reasoner did with the Oil. So once in ten years?

Pouzar

jp: Do they ask Dellow? My impression is he has a pretty small voice. Likely not actually “in the room” when they make decisions.

*shrug*

I would say “No” based on that example.

who

Trading Purcell is a no brainer in my mind, same with Shultz and Gryba. Everyone says he has great chemistry on that line but I would bet you get more production out of Eberle, Yak or even Kassian in his place. If you really want these players back you can re sign in the summer but for Purcell it would have to be less than 2 mil for no more than 2 years. I still would rather move Pakarinen into the top 9 and take that extra money and spend it on a dman. If I thought Korp was tradeable I would trade him also but who’s gonna take his contract. Fayne is playing himself into a possible tradeable piece but if he keeps playing this way I can almost live with him. Don’t have a strong opinion either way

Snowman

Lowetide: Honestly. I don’t know whether to weep or kill my garage.

You don’t have any trees left?

G Money

CGY wins but Brodie out with a lower body injury.

jp

Pouzar: I am honestly not trying to rail on the guy again(Korpse) but where was Dellow when they acquired #28? He’s always been a possession black hole even in his good boxcar years. The WOWYs are just as funny in those good years as well.

Do they ask Dellow? My impression is he has a pretty small voice. Likely not actually “in the room” when they make decisions.

Pouzar

Romulus Apotheosis: Chia “I’ve always had time for Korpi” or somesuch likely made that call on his own.

That felt like one of those, I’ve got to scratch that itch kind of acquisitions that all GMs have in their history.

Yeah that has to be it. So frustrating. Another year at 2.75 mil

jp

Woogie63:
I thinkFayne has played is way back into the safe zone, so he can avoid three weeks of trade rumours?

I think it might be the opposite. He may have played his way back to being a tradeable asset.

I think Gryba stays as 3RD (or possibly a different cheap bone crusher) and Chia looks to upgrade the other slots. McLellan clearly isn’t enamored with Fayne, and the team would probably be happy to offload next years salary if they could.

I’d have no issue keeping him around, but I think the Oilers move on if they find a taker.

Romulus Apotheosis

Pouzar: I am honestly not trying to rail on the guy again(Korpse) but where was Dellow when they acquired #28? He’s always been a possession black hole even in his good boxcar years. The WOWYs are just as funny in those good years as well.

Chia “I’ve always had time for Korpi” or somesuch likely made that call on his own.

That felt like one of those, I’ve got to scratch that itch kind of acquisitions that all GMs have in their history.

Romulus Apotheosis

Lowetide: Honestly. I don’t know whether to weep or kill my garage.

kill your garage and then weep.

Pouzar

Lowetide: Honestly. I don’t know whether to weep or kill my garage.

I am honestly not trying to rail on the guy again(Korpse) but where was Dellow when they acquired #28? He’s always been a possession black hole even in his good boxcar years. The WOWYs are just as funny in those good years as well.

Romulus Apotheosis

Lowetide: I don’t think we can know. Perron got a first and Klinkhammer, but he had an extra year did he not?

Yes.

But, I’m guessing an extra year on Purcell’s contract might actually be a hindrance at that price point.

Ignoring contracts, last year Chris Stewart and Sven Baertschi each got a 2nd.

None of these players are that much alike, but they are all skilled (more or less) wingers.

Romulus Apotheosis

fifthcartel:
Today, Stauffer said he believes the Oilers could have got Petry under 5M if they were more proactive, “roughly the same price point as Klefbom”, but they liked Justin Schultz more.

I mean, we all knew this, but it’s still sad to hear.

how’s that forensic audit coming along?

Woogie63

Steve Smith does not seem to be part of the problem in his new gig!

LMHF#1

DoubleJ:
I’m guessing it all depends on his trade value too. If all you’re getting is a fifth round pick. Then maybe have a contract ready for him to sign at the deadline. At 1.5 mil tops.

He’s got to get a 2nd, doesn’t he?