G52 2015-16: OILERS AT SENATORS

The Edmonton Oilers started the post All-Star portion of the year with a very encouraging win over the Columbus Blue Jackets. They are on the road for the rest of the week and their opponents are not the 1985 Oilers. Can they go 3-1-0? One game at a time.

CUTS LIKE A KNIFE, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
  • Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
  • Oilers in December 2014: 2-8-4
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1
  • Oilers in January 2015: 5-7-1
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2
  • Oilers in February 2015: 5-6-1
  • Oilers in February 2016: 1-0-0
  • Oilers after 51 in 2014-15: 14-28-9, 37 points (-51 GD)
  • Oilers after 51 in 2015-16: 20-26-5, 45 points (-23 GD)

G52 last season was a 2-0 loss to Pittsburgh, Mark Arcobello assisted on the first goal and David Perron scored the other. There’s a reminder of addled behavior in every port, ladies. I think 2-2-0 for the week is reasonable, but secretly hope Ottawa and Montreal are as crappy as they look on television.

davidson ferguson

DEFENSE, 2015-16

OILERS DEFENSE OVER SEASON

  • Brandon Davidson comes off the IR today (we hope) and that should mean a better six this evening. How would you run the pairs?
  • Sekera—Fayne. This duo has been running well for some time now, Sekera’s possession numbers are looking better and Fayne in Vayne is in the black in the real Rel gone categories. Both can play special teams and they have veteran savvy. Part of me worries we will be leaving Fayne in Montreal.
  • Reinhart—Gryba. They went 17-17 against Columbus and I am willing to try them again as second pair. This pairing may not last the evening, but it would really help the club if the duo could stick together until Oscar Klefbom arrives from IR.
  • Nurse—Davidson. If you are going to get Nurse straightened away, this should do it. The Senators are a fast, skilled team, so the Oilers may dress 7D.
  • Justin Schultz and Adam Clendening would be the designated sitters if they go V6.
  • What did you think of Clendening? It takes awhile to get a feel for a player, but he did have calm feet in some situations to my eye. Made some effective, creative short passes and grabbed the easiest apple he will ever get, I suspect he will play tonight.
  • If Justin Schultz is dealt, I wonder if it comes last minute or right soon. A player like Schultz carries significant money for what he brings, Edmonton may have to retain on him for the remainder of the season. Could Ottawa use him? Montreal? Pittsburgh?

lander capture 33

CENTERS, 2015-16

oilers centers over season

  • Leon Draisaitl is across-the-board fabulous this season, all the cannons are pointed in the right direction. The goal he scored the other night was violent—Hall was offside, owned Johnson, and then passed it to Draisaitl who used that shovel to power drive the tally. Good things happen when he is on the ice, and it still hasn’t struck midnight.
  • Connor McDavid’s numbers are also impactful, and I wonder if he can keep that 5×5 number this high through the end of the season. If he can do it, he may lead the league in the category (Leon is currently No. 2). His 5×4/60 number would be enough for top 5 if he had the at-bats.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had surgery January 21 and he estimated time of return was six-to-eight weeks. That means early to mid-March for his return. Can he improve those numbers? Every time I look at the Nuge’s season I am reminded of Taylor Hall a year ago, right down to the trade chatter.
  • Anton Lander and Mark Letestu were supposed to audition for the 3C job (with the loser being 4C). Letestu has been far more productive and I would wager Lander was part of the conversation before they settled on waiving Luke Gazdic. That said, it is important to remember the man does have some skills, has an inviting contract, and season long slumps do exist.

WINGERS, 2015-16

oil forwards over season

  • Taylor Hall remains Chance and I think we are seeing him in his de facto prime. Brilliant, determined, capable and more responsible. He turned the puck over in the CBJ game at the blue line and got hammered by the broadcast crew, but I trust this guy all day with the puck on his stick, entering the zone. You don’t buy a Veyron to play it safe, that’s for all the other guys.
  • Jordan Eberle is going to push those scoring totals high in the Rockies if he can hang with McDavid. He seems a little slow to motor from a standing stop this year, suspect we will find he has been banged up a little somewhere along the line.
  • Teddy Purcell has a nice group of numbers in every category, you could bitch about the PP effectiveness but it was lost in the weeks without McDavid. I don’t see a reason to hang that on Purcell, the entire thing was slipping a gear. Probably playing his last games as an Oiler.
  • Zack Kassian gives Todd McLellan all kinds of options, he can play up and down both wings and be effective. Most encouraging? That 5×5 number means the coach can deploy him with real skill and not miss a bear.
  • Nail Yakupov is posting terrific possession numbers and the scoring totals are strong, especially on the 5×5. His salary means he may well be a solid value contract next year.
  • Benoit Pouliot doesn’t get a lot of respect, but if you look at his numbers and how he plays, the guy is a big part of the club. I like his ability to delay progress by the opposition after a failed sortie. He is the human rain delay, very effective at disrupting momentum.

Skyline-Edmonton-Alberta-Canada-06A

PROJECTING 2016-17

I know it is early, but these blasted road trips often mean the Oilers leave behind a defenseman on Long Island (more in a minute) or Boston. If I am reading the PC tea leaves correctly, we might see his white board for next season like this:

  • Hall—RNH—Draisaitl
  • Pouliot—McDavid—Eberle
  • Kassian—Hanzal—Yakupov
  • Hendricks—Letestu—Pakarinen
  • Sekera—Hamonic
  • Klefbom—Vatanen
  • Nurse—Reinhart
  • Talbot—Brossoit

Seem fair? That means all of Purcell, Fayne, Gryba, Schultz, Nilsson, Korpikoski might be avialable. I think the Oilers have three outside additions to target (3C, two RH D) and maybe they are already here (Fayne). Question: Do we see three scoring lines next season, or three lines scoring? By that I mean, are we about to see a 3line that brings physical play (Kassian), a checker (Hanzal) and a scorer (Yakupov) that can score and check? We wait. Note: I am not saying Hanzal, Hamonic and Vatanen are getting here for free, just blue-skying the future and ideal situations.

TRADE DEADLINES, PAST SIX YEARS

  • Deadline 2010: Traded D Denis Grebeshkov to NY Islanders for draft pick (Curtis Hamilton); Traded Lubomir Visnovsky to Anaheim Ducks for Ryan Whitney and draft pick (Brandon Davidson); Traded D Steve Staios to Calgary Flames for Aaron Johnson and draft pick (Travis Ewanyk).
  • Deadline 2011: Traded L Dustin Penner to LA Kings for Colten Teubert and draft picks (Oscar Klefbom, Daniil Zharkov).
  • Deadline 2012: Traded D Tom Gilbert to Minnesota Wild for Nick Schultz.
  • Deadline 2013: Traded third-round pick (Niklas Hansson) to Dallas Stars for Mark Fistric; Traded a fourth-round pick (Nick Magyar) to the Toronto Maple Leafs for Mike Brown.
  • Deadline 2014: Traded G Ilya Bryzgalov to the Minnesota Wild for a draft pick (William Lagesson); Traded a third-round pick (Dennis Yan) and a fifth-round pick (Matthew Berkovitz) to the Anaheim Ducks for Viktor Fasth; Traded D Nick Schultz to the Columbus Blue Jackets for a draft pick (Tyler Bird); Traded Ales Hemsky to the Ottawa Senators for draft picks (Liam Coughlin, Sergey Zborovskiy).
  • Deadline 2015: Traded L David Perron to the Pittsburgh Penguins for Rob Klinkhammer and a draft pick (Mathew Barzal); Traded D Jeff Petry to the Montreal Canadiens for draft picks (Jonas Siegenthaler, Caleb Jones).

The rebuild has been delayed by many of these trades, the Penner trade fetching Klefbom via the draft but sending away Jeff Petry at the moment the Swede was ready to push. The GMs of this era (Tambellini, MacTavish) remind me of the Star Trek Voyageur episodes with Kurtwood Smith (Memory Alpha) in that the organization kept re-setting and going back to square one, over and over. Every trade deadline involved dealing away perfectly useful players. Although Teddy Purcell is not Jeff Petry, I do think the organization should pause and think about retaining some of the good players (reportedly) in play.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun show this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear, beginning at 10:

  • Scott Rintoul, TSN. Scott is at the Super Bowl this week, we will get some flavor and I might slip in an Andrew Harris question while I am at it.
  • James Duthie, TSN. Also at the Super Bowl, we will get a flavor for the week and I will ask about crazy experiences doing live outdoor television at major events.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. We will discuss the trade deadline, McDavid’s return and who is out of this race, anyway?
  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Darcy will appear at 12:20 today, I am filling in for Dave Jamieson, and McLeod is such a big star now he dictates the times. Oilers, deadline, defense, Talbot.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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531 Responses to "G52 2015-16: OILERS AT SENATORS"

« Older Comments
  1. LMHF#1 says:

    Someone has to get a Vine of Nurse’s dad up.

  2. stevezie says:

    I’m starting to feel good about my bold prediction we avoid the lottery this year, but I can’t look past this being just two games and against the Sens and BJs.

    Still, good times.

  3. hags9k says:

    Talbot, man. I called him a sieve after the CGY goal, but am now almost ready to vacate Woodguy’s lawn. Maybe bum one more smoke, then we’ll see.

  4. stephen sheps says:

    Dr. Taboggan,

    Davidson is killing penalties, so I’d say McLellan feels pretty comfortable with him in his first game back.

  5. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide: There are a few Chiarelli types, I suspect he would love DuClair, Hanzal, Michael Stone.

    Those would actually be fairly nice. I agree. Just have to work out the kinks of the trade…

  6. Pretendergast says:

    Hahahaha he’s so in their head they’ve gone stupid

  7. Lackadaisical says:

    Anyone else feel that sudden spike of irritation coursing through Edmonton?

  8. Ice Sage says:

    A Wideman can’t help a cheap shot

  9. Oil2Oilers says:

    Nurse had a small warning for the Senator on the way to the bench.

  10. LMHF#1 says:

    C’mon Eberle. The time is now!

  11. Professor Q says:

    Centre of attention: I think more Pavel Bure with a bit of Forsberg power

    So, McDavid is a hybrid of Bure-Forsberg, and Draisaitl is a hybrid of Sundin-Kopitar?

  12. hags9k says:

    The convert is good.

  13. Pretendergast says:

    3 for 3 on the PP!

  14. Ryan says:

    Goose seven.

  15. Ice Sage says:

    Davidson. Well-earned.

  16. LadiesloveSmid says:

    You could not wipe the smile off of Davidson

  17. stephen sheps says:

    Bohologo, if you’re still following along, remember what I was saying about Davidson this morning?

    Found money.

    Love it.

  18. MrEd says:

    7-2. I’m a fan first.

    Fuck ya.

  19. geowal says:

    I heard this rumour the Sens penalty kill isn’t very good…boosting confidence in our pp (good thing)

  20. frjohnk says:

    If Anaheim and Arizona lose tonight we are only 6 points out…….

  21. G Money says:

    The Oilers may not yet be ‘good’ – yeah, it’s terrible Blue Jackets and Senators teams they just beat down, not the Kings or Hawks – but I believe they are now definitively stating that they are better than the bottom feeders.

    And that is the first necessary step to becoming genuinely good.

  22. haters says:

    Can anyone link the nurse fight ?

  23. jp says:

    Lowetide: There are a few Chiarelli types, I suspect he would love DuClair, Hanzal, Michael Stone.

    I’m shocked no one has mentioned OEL, even if only as a joke.

    Seems impossible, but you never know…

  24. Lackadaisical says:

    The powerplay is firing, and some bounces are going our way. Something, something, Mcdavid!

  25. Ice Sage says:

    Can’t remember a game this year when the thoroughbreds weren’t played in the last 3 minutes. It’s a good thing.

  26. Dr. Taboggan says:

    stephen sheps,

    Davidson team leader in TOI. Love it.

  27. stephen sheps says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    stephen sheps,

    Davidson team leader in TOI. Love it.

    Me too. Fantastic news.

  28. Kitchener says:

    A thorough ass-whipping by the boys in blue.

  29. The Trade Guy says:

    Mcdavid cannot be compared to any player. He is simply McDavid. They will call great prospects of the future poorman’s Mcdavids.

  30. hunter1909 says:

    jp:
    Zack Attack!!!

    Damn, if he can keep himself on the straight and narrow, that will be a brilliant trade!

    Montreal fans are very excited to see him as an Oiler.

    They’re probably dressing Jeff Petry for the next game in his honor.

  31. jzed says:

    Seems to me that someone on one of Lowetide, Oiler’s Nation or Cult of Hockey, correctly predicted a 7-2 thrashing. I wonder where the DeLorean is parked?

  32. MrEd says:

    Nurse, Shultz and Yak didn’t post tonight. The only ones.
    Shultz must’ve tried not to score with almost 22min.
    Yak?
    Nurse covered his ass in a different way.

  33. frjohnk says:

    Gryba is a beauty.

    I hope he signs

  34. hunter1909 says:

    G Money:
    The Oilers may not yet be ‘good’ – yeah, it’s terrible Blue Jackets and Senators teams they just beat down, not the Kings or Hawks – but I believe they are now definitively stating that they are better than the bottom feeders.

    And that is the first necessary step to becoming genuinely good.

    Back to Calgary Puck with you.

    : )

  35. frjohnk says:

    hunter1909: Montreal fans are very excited to see him as an Oiler.

    They’re probably dressing Jeff Petry for the next game in his honor.

    Wonder if Scrivens starts.

  36. Centre of attention says:

    Brandon Davidson with a team-leading 23+ minutes.

    I hope this kid is an Oiler for a long time. He won’t score like Karlsson but damn he’s effective.

  37. Ice Sage says:

    jzed:
    Seems to me that someone on one of Lowetide, Oiler’s Nation or Cult of Hockey, correctly predicted a 7-2 thrashing. I wonder where the DeLorean is parked?

    LOL – great line! – is it a coincidence that the DeLorean must get to ’88’? Like the Oilers did in getting Davidson back? And we’re all partying like it’s 1985 and Marty McFly has a cure for neurodegenerative disease? OK too fog of warts, there but I predicted 6-3 Oil but Sens did score a few for us.

  38. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Centre of attention:
    Brandon Davidson with a team-leading 23+ minutes.

    I hope this kid is an Oiler for a long time. He won’t score like Karlsson but damn he’s effective.

    he scored like Karlsson today!

  39. Ice Sage says:

    frjohnk,

    Oh, god, no, spare him – he’s a good man

  40. hunter1909 says:

    SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!: Jordan Eberle can score. His release is quick and deceptive, Anderson completely misread him on both goals. Its almost like a guitarist coming in on a syncopated rhythm

    Brilliant point. Many musical instruments can come in, as you say, on a syncopated rhythm. Extra Hunter point for knowing how to spell “rhythm”(because I never can).

  41. Gordies Elbow says:

    Love Brandon Davidson’s game. Really impressive.

    Love the nastiness of Nurse’s game. Really impressive.

    McDavid is magic. Draisaitl is sublime. Hall’s pushing rivers every direction, and smiling at the coach. The role players are playing a role. Pakarinen’s trying to put players through the boards, and fighting for pucks.

    Really encouraging night.

  42. Woodguy says:

    So that happened.

  43. alice13 says:

    Centre of attention:
    Brandon Davidson with a team-leading 23+ minutes.

    I hope this kid is an Oiler for a long time. He won’t score like Karlsson but damn he’s effective.

    This.

    It’s not anything that stands out, but when he’s on the ice, seriously! , I find myself un-clenching. And Then I see his jersey. If his coach feels that un-clenching, then he’s gonna love him to death.
    23min sounds like love.

  44. hunter1909 says:

    The: “Trade Eberle” movement should calm down for at least a week.

    Cue: “Trade Yakupov” proposals.

  45. OF17 says:

    I really underestimated how much impact McDavid would have. We talk about Taylor Hall being the offensive catalyst for this team, but McDavid may have surpassed him in that role already. Everyone’s crisper, everyone’s more involved. I’m sure part of that is McLellan’s coaching starting to take hold too, but McDavid just makes it all come together.

  46. Professor Q says:

    hunter1909:
    The: “Trade Eberle” movement should calm down for at least a week.

    Cue: “Trade Yakupov”proposals.

    Trade everyone!

  47. MrEd says:

    frjohnk,

    So good for Gryba. The man has value.
    To the Oilers? How much for how long?
    1.5 for 2 years?

  48. Water Fire says:

    The Trade Guy:
    Mcdavid cannot be compared to any player. He is simply McDavid. They will call great prospects of the future poorman’s Mcdavids.

    This

    I commented the other day he is clearly and has earned generational already, and they all have their unique style.

    The player that reminds me the most of him so far is Glen Anderson. Connor isn’t dirty like that, but he has Anderson’s pure attack and aggression. Driving straight through. Anderson could be invisible through a playoff game and be unreal in OT. Of course Connor won’t be invisible, more that Anderson on task was deadly because he was so aggressive to score. Connor so far is that 24/7. There are no words.

    Lemieux, Gretzky, Savard, Yzerman, Crosby didn’t have that in the same way. Of course they had dominance in their own way. And of course Gretzky dominated more than anyone, Badger Bob called him the most competitive person he’d ever seen in hockey. Go Connor!

    Leon is more like Forsberg than McDavid.

    I freakin love that the Oilers have ‘at least’ 4 players that choose to insert their will over others.

    I called it months ago that this type of onslaught would start *pats own back* and that D scoring is more dependent on team play than the players *again*.

    No 7M D that only plays one way well please. There is too much beauty on this team to destroy it with an under-contributing heavy contract.

  49. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: Wonder if Scrivens starts.

    I hope so.

  50. LoDog says:

    All I have wanted all year was to see McDavid and Eberle together and it is glorious.

    Gonna have to find another way to get that top dman because eberle ain’t getting less than 40 on McDavid s wing.

    Gryba can be my 6/7 anyday for the right pr7ce.

  51. Gordies Elbow says:

    OF17,

    McDavid gives the opposition something to focus on. They try and line match, put players out to counter him.

    He naturally disrupts the rhythm of the other team.

    Anyone else think that he had a low event night tonight? Only two points. Rare that a guy gets two (or three) and you’re looking at the other players like Davidson after the game.

    He’s really that good.

  52. G Money says:

    Shot data!

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2016/02/04/g52-2016-02-04-oilers-at-unelected-politicians-shot-and-distance-data/

    Things to check out:

    Note once again the interesting divide between the raw stats and the Danger weighted stats. By Corsi, the Sens won. By score adjusted Corsi, it was advantage Oilers. By DangerFen, it was a clear Oiler win. If I had score adjusted Danger weighted stats, it would be a beatdown. And it was!

    That’s a McDavid effect.

    Connor McDavid is so good, he breaks Corsi.

    And Davidson, wowsers.

  53. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    The scale of this win is a surprise but that it was a win should not be. Injuries were a reason not an excuse. People that matter are coming off the IR and now the lines can flow.

    Davidson is a very good defenseman, I cannot stress enough just how calm he is on the ice. I found myself yelling “pass pass” but he held and made a more accurate play a second later. He’s not flashy (aka Karlsson) but goodness is he calm. Wonderful game all around.

    Talbot made about 5 key saves in the middle of the first and it kept the lead intact. Timely saves are key and holy smokes have we been missing that.

    Draisaitl and Hall will be linemates for a long time if the GM allows it. They were the last two off the ice in warmup and were talking the entire game. They get each other, that’s fun to see.

    Eberle get McDavid. Get open, put your stick on the ice and expect the pass. Magic will happen.

    Fantastic game tonight and so glad I got to watch it live

  54. geowal says:

    hags9k,

    Love the fired up Dad

  55. Lowetide says:

    Tonight reminded me of the 80s in one way: I never could get to the bathroom during the actual game action. I was young then, this team is going to kill me as an old man.

  56. haters says:

    I know I’ve irritated some people with trade proposals here. I apologize. As long as they keep winning everyone can stay. Even Shultz damnit.

    Really upset I had to miss half the game.

    How much impact does anyone think Nelson had on Kelfbom and Davidsons devolopment as full time Nhl Dmen? Is it overstated? Is it 70% player 30% good guidance ? I miss Lander from the back half of last year.

  57. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    Tonight reminded me of the 80s in one way: I never could get to the bathroom during the actual game action. I was young then, this team is going to kill me as an old man.

    Here to help.

    http://www.bardmedical.com/patients/home-care/intermittent-catheters-trays/touchless%C2%AE-intermittent-kits/

  58. fifthcartel says:

    Cam Talbot up to .918 on the season.

  59. RexLibris says:

    G Money:
    Shot data!

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2016/02/04/g52-2016-02-04-oilers-at-unelected-politicians-shot-and-distance-data/

    Things to check out:

    Note once again the interesting divide between the raw stats and the Danger weighted stats. By Corsi, the Sens won.By score adjusted Corsi, it was advantage Oilers.By DangerFen, it was a clear Oiler win.If I had score adjusted Danger weighted stats, it would be a beatdown.And it was!

    That’s a McDavid effect.

    Connor McDavid is so good, he breaks Corsi.

    And Davidson, wowsers.

    I noticed something similar at the CLB game.

    For the first, the Oilers were dominant and had many chances, but the Blue Jackets were creating as many dangerous scoring chances that may not even register as shots because they were moving the puck in the crease in traffic, looking for bounces and second and third tries.

    Then when the Blue Jackets began to dominate on the shot clock it was the Oilers who were creating more dangerous chances with fewer opportunities.

    Now, I don’t think this is a standard correlative thing happening here, but we should accept that DanFen and Corsi events may diverge just as we accept that score effects impact Corsi events and weight certain aspects of the game differently.

  60. fifthcartel says:

    Also Brandon Davidson 56% CF in 23 minutes tonight. Nice.

  61. square_wheels says:

    Lowetide,

    The truckers use old pop bottles and by the looks of the intersections near some of our leases, covered in frozen gold, I’d say you could give that a try ?

  62. geowal says:

    I think Eberle may hit LTs 2.0/60 mark sooner than later

  63. LMHF#1 says:

    Water Fire:

    Leon is more like Forsberg

    Leon cries like a 2-year-old when he doesn’t get his way?

    Haven’t seen any of that.

  64. frjohnk says:

    I said before if Anaheim and Arizona lose tonight we are only 6 points out.

    If only we could get a top 4 D man and a number 1 center in the next month without giving anything up….just maybe……something playoffs.

  65. Professor Q says:

    LMHF#1: Leon cries like a 2-year-old when he doesn’t get his way?

    Haven’t seen any of that.

    Are you thinking of Lindros?

  66. G Money says:

    RexLibris,

    I think this is correct.

    The standard line in the fancystats world is that you don’t need ‘shot quality’ based statistics because over the long run, they converge with the raw shot metrics.

    That may be true across all teams and all games, but I very much believe it isn’t true at the game or the player level.

    There ARE big divergences at times between the two, and the divergences in my experience so far represent the true flow of the game (and often the result) better than the raw metrics.

    That’s one of the reasons I haven’t yet gone through the effort of running the standard statistical tests on DangerFen. Notwithstanding that I needed cumulative stats which I only got working a few weeks ago, I also feel these stats have a lot of value descriptively, even if the predictive value gets washed out.

    I think that’s also why High Danger Chances have become so popular – because they often reflect an important part of the game that disappears from the raw metrics.

  67. dangilitis says:

    I love hockey again. 3 goals from the D, 3 PP goals, I can’t remember seeing that combo.

    P.S. Fucking Darren Dreger for drumming on the trade wagon. Qualifying him as a significant asset “from an Oilers perspective” and “expensive contract” are both fucking ludicrous. He did the same shit with Yakupov, this guy is worse than Eklund

  68. spoiler says:

    What a great two games after the All Star break! 12 goals for and the GD down to -18.

    But what I want to see is sustain.

    Too many times we have watched this team come up with a couple of brilliant efforts and then enter the next game resting on their laurels, foot completely off the gas.

    Time to see some sustain.

  69. dangilitis says:

    Hall—RNH—Draisaitl
    Pouliot—McDavid—Eberle
    Kassian—Hanzal—Yakupov
    Hendricks—Letestu—Pakarinen
    Sekera—Hamonic
    Klefbom—Vatanen
    Nurse—Reinhart
    Talbot—Brossoit

    LT, what the hell did you do with Davidson?! He’s not on your trade bait list either

  70. Магия 10 says:

    jzed:
    Seems to me that someone on one of Lowetide, Oiler’s Nation or Cult of Hockey, correctly predicted a 7-2 thrashing. I wonder where the DeLorean is parked?

    Here at the 1018 am mark:

    https://lowetide.ca/2016/02/04/g52-2015-16-oilers-at-senators/comment-page-1/#comment-501175

    😉

  71. spoiler says:

    frjohnk:
    I said before if Anaheim and Arizona lose tonight we are only 6 points out.

    If only we could get a top 4 D man and a number 1 center in the next month without giving anything up….just maybe……something playoffs.

    Those Anaheim games in hand are killer though. Could be anywhere from 6 to 14 points out.

  72. BONE207 says:

    jzed,

    It was LT’s blog…I read that too. Didn’t see the car though…might have been hovering. Fine job in your prediction…so sensitive

  73. LMHF#1 says:

    Professor Q: Are you thinking of Lindros?

    I once watched Forsberg stand there on the ice whining to the ref while the zamboni began to circle around the both of them in an intermission. During a playoff game.

    Just one of the many times he appeared to favor temper tantrums to getting on with playing. The guy was a complete whiner.

  74. G Money says:

    Anyone see the McDavid post-game interview? He’s got some interesting armor pieces either stuck or sewed onto his shirt to protect those tender clavicles.

  75. frjohnk says:

    spoiler: Those Anaheim games in hand are killer though.Could be anywhere from 6 to 14 points out.

    I agree.

    Makes the games we play against Pacific teams MFW

    Must Fucking Win

  76. Магия 10 says:

    BONE207:
    jzed,

    It was ON…I read that too. Didn’t see the car though…might have been hovering.

    Without the edit button? Amazing.

  77. spoiler says:

    frjohnk: I agree.

    Makes the games we play against Pacific teams MFW

    Must Fucking Win

    And of course they’re beating the Kings 3-0 so far tonight…

    #whycantwehavenicethings

  78. JamesL says:

    If the Oilers signed Brandon Davidson to a 7x$4m deal tomorrow, would anyone here be upset?

  79. spoiler says:

    And LA scores a bizarre one as I type that…

  80. stush18 says:

    LMHF#1: I once watched Forsberg stand there on the ice whining to the ref while the zamboni began to circle around the both of them in an intermission. During a playoff game.

    Just one of the many times he appeared to favor temper tantrums to getting on with playing. The guy was a complete whiner.

    I think you mean generational player and winner*

  81. dangilitis says:

    I am a big Perron fan, always liked him. Not tonight though, 1 G/1A.
    Clearly he needs to get traded every 20 games or so because he seems to run hot after every trade!

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/player-bio/david-perron

    Also, check out his playoff stats and tell me if there is something amiss, there seems to be 1 more point than any other Oiler over the last decade…

  82. Lowetide says:

    Магия 10: 7-2 Oilers tonight.

    P.S. 88 at the end

    THAT is impressive.

  83. G Money says:

    In case anyone’s counting, Nurse according to the DangerFens, has had two terrific defensive games in a row.

  84. LoDog says:

    spoiler:
    What a great two games after the All Star break!12 goals for and the GD down to -18.

    But what I want to see is sustain.

    Too many times we have watched this team come up with a couple of brilliant efforts and then enter the next game resting on their laurels, foot completely off the gas.

    Time to see some sustain.

    Yup. Saturday will say a lot about this team. Afternoon game after a couple big wins? The Oilers play like shit exactly 100% the time in this scenario.

    While McDavid is obviously huge the break likely helped a lot of players. And maybe finally some real buy in.

  85. RexLibris says:

    G Money:
    RexLibris,

    I think this is correct.

    The standard line in the fancystats world is that you don’t need ‘shot quality’ based statistics because over the long run, they converge with the raw shot metrics.

    That may be true across all teams and all games, but I very much believe it isn’t true at the game or the player level.

    There ARE big divergences at times between the two, and the divergences in my experience so far represent the true flow of the game (and often the result) better than the raw metrics.

    That’s one of the reasons I haven’t yet gone through the effort of running the standard statistical tests on DangerFen. Notwithstanding that I needed cumulative stats which I only got working a few weeks ago, I also feel these stats have a lot of value descriptively, even if the predictive value gets washed out.

    I think that’s also why High Danger Chances have become so popular – because they often reflect an important part of the game that disappears from the raw metrics.

    I think it begins with a definition of shot quality.

    Columbus wasn’t registering your typical shots from the high slot, more like shots of the plinko variety. They were very effective as it took a great deal of effort and focus on the part of Talbot to keep them out.

    The typical breakdown of shot quality does seem to even out in the end, but I wonder if this breakdown includes or takes into account the shots that are meant strictly to cause chaos in the blue paint.

  86. stush18 says:

    G Money:
    In case anyone’s counting, Nurse according to the DangerFens, has had two terrific defensive games in a row.

    I’ve actually liked his game a lot better these last two games. He’s moving the puck more effectively, and picking his spots better. I’m fine with him staying in the show if he continues like this again

  87. G Money says:

    RexLibris: if this breakdown includes or takes into account the shots that are meant strictly to cause chaos in the blue paint.

    Interestingly, NONE of the calculated shot quality metrics account for screens.

    The only one that does is Staples’ much maligned Neilsen and Scoring Chances work.

    One of the reasons I’ve always defended their value as a statistic (even as David sometimes makes that really difficult by displaying an often-profound lack of understanding of basic statistical concepts).

  88. Brad says:

    JamesL,

    Yes.

    Love Davidson, but he is not worth 4MM/yr. 7MM total for 4 years, however, I could live with. But frankly guys like Davidson aren’t the type you sign to big money long term deals.

  89. LoDog says:

    JamesL,

    Yes. Yes I would.

  90. Pouzar says:

    What a game to miss.

    FARK!!!!!!!!

  91. rickithebear says:

    G Money:
    RexLibris,

    I think this is correct.

    The standard line in the fancystats world is that you don’t need ‘shot quality’ based statistics because over the long run, they converge with the raw shot metrics.

    That may be true across all teams and all games, but I very much believe it isn’t true at the game or the player level.

    There ARE big divergences at times between the two, and the divergences in my experience so far represent the true flow of the game (and often the result) better than the raw metrics.

    That’s one of the reasons I haven’t yet gone through the effort of running the standard statistical tests on DangerFen. Notwithstanding that I needed cumulative stats which I only got working a few weeks ago, I also feel these stats have a lot of value descriptively, even if the predictive value gets washed out.

    I think that’s also why High Danger Chances have become so popular – because they often reflect an important part of the game that disappears from the raw metrics.

    Welcome to my world 3 years ago!
    bitches!

    Glad you are slowly getting there.

    I am in a new math!

    Ballistic and load math.
    Building compressed hunting loads.

    My boys are showing an interest in guns.
    Getting back lnto shooting for the first time in 25 years.

    Trying to figure how to assemble a bull barelled target gun 600+m with laminate stock and scope in a varmit caliber for under $1000.
    Scopes with 6-1 zoom ratios.

    A target barreled gun for c2, C3, C3D game with 1300m kill potential.

    Get a nice C4 guide gun.

    Get my boys trap and bench shooting.

  92. Centre of attention says:

    Pouzar:
    What a game to miss.

    FARK!!!!!!!!

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/gotta-see-it-nurse-gets-the-big-ko-on-mccormick-his-dad-loves-it/

    Nurses fight pretty much sums it up. A good ol’ fasion sh*t kicking.

  93. G Money says:

    rickithebear,

    Slowly, eh? Hint: I didn’t just start working on this stuff today!

    In any case, we will expect to see some detailed rickistats of your hunting adventures.

    A bear using guns to hunt, well I never!

  94. bendelson says:

    Магия 10: Here at the 1018 am mark:

    https://lowetide.ca/2016/02/04/g52-2015-16-oilers-at-senators/comment-page-1/#comment-501175

    Interesting… and well done.

    If you go back to 9:50 this morning, you will note my ‘prediction’ for tonight’s game.

  95. BONE207 says:

    RexLibris: Here to help.

    http://www.bardmedical.com/patients/home-care/intermittent-catheters-trays/touchless%C2%AE-intermittent-kits/

    Good find Rex. LT may never take it off. Of course then he’d be at Woodguy’s lawn in case the fire gets out of control.

  96. Really? says:

    Water Fire: This

    I commented the other day he is clearly and has earned generational already, and they all have their unique style.

    The player that reminds me the most of him so far is Glen Anderson. Connor isn’t dirty like that, but he has Anderson’s pure attack and aggression. Driving straight through. Anderson could be invisible through a playoff game and be unreal in OT. Of course Connor won’t be invisible, more that Anderson on task was deadly because he was so aggressive to score. Connor so far is that 24/7. There are no words.

    Lemieux, Gretzky, Savard, Yzerman, Crosby didn’t have that in the same way. Of course they had dominance in their own way. And of course Gretzky dominated more than anyone, Badger Bob called him the most competitive person he’d ever seen in hockey. Go Connor!

    Leon is more like Forsberg than McDavid.

    I freakin love that the Oilers have ‘at least’ 4 players that choose to insert their will over others.

    I called it months ago that this type of onslaught would start *pats own back* and that D scoring is more dependent on team play than the players *again*.

    No 7M D that only plays one way well please. There is too much beauty on this teamto destroy it with an under-contributing heavy contract.

    In fact, McDavid seems to be more like Rocket Richard. He is speedy, intense, totally focused in the O zone and simply loves to score. Furthermore, he plays hard all the time.

  97. Pouzar says:

    G Money:
    In case anyone’s counting, Nurse according to the DangerFens, has had two terrific defensive games in a row.

    That’s a huge deal to me. Maybe rest was what he needed.

  98. Pouzar says:

    Centre of attention: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/gotta-see-it-nurse-gets-the-big-ko-on-mccormick-his-dad-loves-it/

    Nurses fight pretty much sums it up. A good ol’ fasion sh*t kicking.

    Oh my…I smell an animated Dad .gif

  99. zatch says:

    Some observations from my seat in section 323: Gryba was Gryba. Solid without the puck in a simple way, bad bad bad with the puck. I want Schultz gone yesterday. Davidson was solid. Nurse has a the tools but he still needs to put them together and add some polish. I still think the A is the right call. Hall and Draisatl are sublime together. They were last to leave the ice after warmups. Ebs…is needed. If we trade him, then we will immediately start looking for a player whonis basically Jordan Eberle. Talbot is #good. I don’t worry when he’s in net and that’s just perfect.

    McDavid is breathtaking in person. The other team sees him coming and you can see the fear. They can’t handle him, and any sortie he makes without a scoring chance is a good one for the opponent. They back off him.

    Super fun game for an Oilers fans and a fitting flipping of the score from last year.

  100. BONE207 says:

    Магия 10,

    No edit button but I do have one of those Staples “EASY” buttons.

  101. Pouzar says:

    Pouzar,

    https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/Caa06LeUkAEnhu4.mp4

    Love the look on the Uncle’s face (I have no idea if that’s his uncle).

  102. BONE207 says:

    Pouzar:
    Pouzar,

    https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/Caa06LeUkAEnhu4.mp4

    Love the look on the Uncle’s face (I have no idea if that’s his uncle).

    Maybe on his Mom’s side?

  103. Магия 10 says:

    bendelson: Interesting… and well done.

    If you go back to 9:50 this morning, you will note my ‘prediction’ for tonight’s game.

    And here’s your source, pal:

    6:26 pm yesterday. Bonafide

    https://lowetide.ca/2016/02/03/bona-fide-4/#comment-501035

  104. frjohnk says:

    Pouzar: That’s a huge deal to me. Maybe rest was what he needed.

    Yup. I agree.

  105. JDï™ says:

    Pouzar:
    What a game to miss.

    FARK!!!!!!!!

    Me too. Watching highlights now, and the word ‘glorious’ keeps coming to mind.

    Here’s a site that hosts replays of games that are about two days old:

    http://rutube.ru/video/person/979571/

  106. Pouzar says:

    Wow…just finished watching the Oiler goals. Just wow.
    Loved the Drai and Kassian goals especially.

  107. bendelson says:

    Магия 10,

    Yeah, I don’t think we are on the same page tonight… it happens.
    Great game though!
    7-2

  108. LadiesloveSmid says:

    G Money,

    Talbot with a Dubnyk-ian game. Let in a couple softies and come out with a quality SV% still. Up to .918 on the season, I wonder how high he can go after that disastrous first 2 months.

  109. Магия 10 says:

    bendelson: Yeah, I don’t think we are on the same page tonight

    Yes. Some predictions are on a Bone-a-fidey page. 😉

  110. bendelson says:

    Магия 10: Yes. Some predictions are on a Bone-a-fidey page.

    Agreed.

  111. Stelio Kontos says:

    My guess is 20-10 gets us into the playoffs. More doable than it looks. The schedule is filled with bad teams and Pacific rivals (who aside from LA are the former). It’s gonna come down to talbot and the two line punch. First time in a long time that I at least see a team that wants to fight for it (have all year, but didn’t have the horses).

  112. GrandOptimist says:

    Just a little info…take it with grains of salt as there is injuries/suspensions etc that can change a lineup and therefore altering a teams dynamic…

    Oilers remaining schedule…numbers based before todays games…

    Canadiens – SA : 8th PK : 8th.
    Islanders – SA : 20th PK: 2nd.
    Devils – SA : 7th PK: 13th.
    Leafs – SA : 26th PK: 15th. *
    Jets – SA : 15th PK: 27th. *
    Ducks – SA : 3rd PK: 1st.
    Wild – SA : 11th PK: 24th. *
    Avs – SA : 27th PK: 19th. *
    Sens – SA : 30th PK: 30th. *
    Kings – SA : 5th PK: 10th.
    Ducks- SA : 2nd PK: 1st.
    Islanders- SA : 20th PK: 2nd.
    Sabers- SA : 21st PK: 18th. *
    Flyers- SA : 29th PK: 26th. *
    Jacksts- SA : 23rd PK: 17th. *
    Jets- SA : 15th PK: 27th. *
    Sharks- SA : 4th PK: 21st.
    Wild- SA : 11th PK: 24th. *
    Coyotes- SA : 18th PK: 29th. *
    Preds- SA : 5th PK: 23rd
    Blues- SA : 12th PK: 3rd
    Canucks- SA: 25th PK: 16th. *
    Avs- SA: 27th PK: 19th. *
    Coyotes- SA: 18th PK: 29th. *
    Sharks- SA: 4th PK: 21st.
    Kings- SA: 5th PK: 10th
    Ducks- SA: 3rd PK: 1st
    Flames- SA: 9th PK: 28th. *
    Canucks- SA: 25th PK: 16th. *
    Canucks- SA: 25th PK:16th. *

    SA= shots against ranking in league
    PK= penalty kill ranking
    *=combined score of >30 ..so winnable games in my opinion as our team is built on capitalising on chances, yes! i know there is a difference between shots and chances but over the course of a season they usually corelate.

    That equals 17 winnable games using these two stats…as i said other variables i understand…however if you look at said teams, in theory they should be winnable anyways.

    For the oilers to make the playoffs…they would need to go basically

    21-6-3 = 92points for the season…in our division that should be about the cutoff line. (plus or minus 2 points)

    That means…17 winnable games offensive wise. Meaning 4 wins minimum in the 13 other more challenging games (assuming we lose none of the winnable games…which is highly unlikely…however ottawa did it last year, no reason we cant)

    Its tough. But not impossible. Heck we got mcdavid. ?

  113. Oilspill says:

    Not even close. McQuaid Stoner Schenn Emilin Matt Greene.

    MrEd:
    frjohnk,

    So good for Gryba. The man has value.
    To the Oilers? How much for how long?
    1.5 for 2 years?

  114. hunter1909 says:

    rickithebear,

    I was taught how to shoot a .22 rifle aged 8 years old at summer camp. Army style.

    My memories are:
    – how serious the camp councillors(normally gregarious 15-18 year olds) were.
    – handling the rifle every day, going through the drill for a week before getting a bullet.
    – learning how to be comfortable handling a weapon without ammunition.
    – seeing a bird shot out of a tree by the instructor which taught me what a rifle can do.
    – squeezing the trigger with a small coin(a Canadian dime) balanced on the sight.
    – multiple other kids sharing the same target – so it was impossible to learn anything since half of them were screaming they’d got the bulls eye; my refusing to stand nearer than ten feet back from the melee.
    – the rifle pit everyone had to lie prone on, with your feet kind of splayed over to one side.

    All good.

    Meanwhile, a similarly aged 8 Connor McDavid blasted a hole in his Dad’s garage wall using nothing more than a hockey stick+ammo.

    If Connor McDavid was a cop he’d make Dirty Harry look soft on crime.

  115. v4ance says:

    hunter1909,

    LOL… in Turtleford, Saskatchewan, they put all the Grade 5 students thru a week of firearms safety courses then they bused us to the gravel pit behind the baseball fields, gave us 22’s and let us all shoot 10 rounds. Afterwards, they pulled out the shotgun and let a few volunteers shoot at 5 clay pigeons.

    Nothing says “Saskatchewan” like having all the rural 11 year olds trained with guns!

  116. v4ance says:

    Watching the highlights of Nurse’s fight, I was lipreading Richard Nurse:

    He said, ” Yes, Beat his ass! Beat his ASS! Yeah! Yeah! YEAH!”

    Yes. I concur heartily!

  117. jp says:

    Stelio Kontos:
    My guess is 20-10 gets us into the playoffs. More doable than it looks. The schedule is filled with bad teams and Pacific rivals (who aside from LA are the former).

    Don’t look now, 2nd place SJ is 7-1-2 in its past 10, and 3rd place Ana is 8-2-0.

    I’m holding out hope, but it’s not going to be an easy road.

  118. Frank the dog says:

    I did say a while back that if my theory of this team being built for the purpose of an arena legacy at the expense of everything else is correct, we will see this team explode out of the gate in the 2nd half of the season.
    I has my doubts just before the ASB but now it’s looking like wow. Just wow.

  119. böök¡je says:

    Frank the dog:
    I did say a while back that if my theory of this team being built for the purpose of an arena legacyat the expense of everything else is correct, we will see this team explode out of the gate in the 2nd half of the season.
    I has my doubts just before the ASB but now it’s looking like wow. Just wow.

    We’ve had too much of the inside story where both Tambellini and MacT were pushed to succeed and failed (and thus removed). The more likely story is the obvious one where Katz truly believed that his hockey buddies from the days of Oiler glory could build him a winning team and they could all hang out together and he could be cool.

    With that said, I suspect the ‘plan’ was to see a team win the cup in the first year of the new arena and that a steady stream of improvement starting 3-4 years ago was the plan. Randomly chancing into McDavid isn’t a great strategy.

  120. Water Fire says:

    Really?: Water

    That might be true, can’t remember Rocket too well 🙂

  121. "Steve Smith" says:

    böök¡je: Randomly chancing into McDavid isn’t a great strategy.

    It’s about on par with making sure that McDavid is hurt for most of the first half of the year, when the plan is to suck (why? Never you mind why), only to have him return in the second half, when you want to stop sucking.

    Seriously, Frank, this is your best theory since the time you cracked my secret identity (as I recall, I was Rom).

  122. jp says:

    “Steve Smith”: It’s about on par with making sure that McDavid is hurt for most of the first half of the year, when the plan is to suck (why? Never you mind why), only to have him return in the second half, when you want to stop sucking.

    Seriously, Frank, this is your best theory since the time you cracked my secret identity (as I recall, I was Rom).

    I don’t care so much about the theory if it actually corresponds with the Oilers becoming good.

  123. stephen sheps says:

    Bohologo: I disagree.

    Davidson is not found money, he is the money your brother had to pay you after betting with odds on his side and the rest of the family watching.

    Yes, quite right. An excellent metaphor.

    I love it when I actually win those kinds of bets, especially against my brother

  124. kinger_OIL says:

    – That was a fun game to watch for sure! Let’s not forget that when we score a lot of goals (rarely), suddenly, the D numbers look great. Our D isn’t great, and we can’t expect to score a lot of goals all the time. Please Chia don’t fall into trap of thinking that we are good to go on D now.

    – If next year Nurse/Gryba/Davidson are 5-7, that’s awesome, lets not pencil them in as 2nd pairings

  125. Oilspill says:

    Coaches statment” We’re glad we had him” doesn’t sound promising.

    frjohnk:
    Gryba is a beauty.

    I hope he signs

  126. stevezie says:

    Frank the dog,

    If this theory keeps getting mentioned, i get to keep saying how little sense it makes. It makes none. 1) You can’t choose when to get good, and 2) there is no benefit.

    Katz would have been millions ahead had they made the playoff the last few years.

    The fake moon landing makes more sense. Lots more. And it’s nonsense too. This is flat-earth level stuff.

    (Not trying to pick on Frank. I hear this all the time even in real life.)

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