NHL DRAFT 2016: NEW TOP 30 AND MCKENZIE’S LIST

Bob McKenzie released his mid-season rankings today (here), that’s a good time to re-set Edmonton’s draft situation and my personal top 30. A reminder, my list rewards offense, a range of skills and does not give high value to players who have a lot of their value tied up in the defensive side of the game.

EDMONTON’S CURRENT DRAFT PICKS FOR 2016

The NHL’s draft lottery has changed, so let’s assume for the sake of conversation Edmonton remains at their current number. Here are their current picks:

  • No. 2 overall
  • No. 32 overall (Note: This pick, or the 2017 pick, goes to Boston for Peter Chiarelli)
  • No. 62 overall
  • No. 92 overall
  • No. 122 overall
  • No. 152 overall
  • No. 182 overall

LOWETIDE TOP 30

  1. (1) C Auston Matthews, Zurich Lions (Swiss-A): Running away with top spot, his NLA performance (31GP, 23-15-38) includes a strong recent run.
  2. (2) W Patrik Laine, Tappara (Sm-Liiga): He could be in the NHL next season, sniper is 35GP, 13-14-27 in the SM-Liiga. Great offensive prospect.
  3. (3) R Jesse Puljujarvi, Karpat (Sm-Liiga): Big, fast, incredibly skilledhe is 41GP, 8-12-20 in the SM-Liiga. He is an astounding combination of size and speed.
  4. (4)  Matthew Tkachuk, London Knights (OHL): He is 41GP, 20-57-77 and among the leading OHL scorers in his draft-eligible season. He might be better than the Finns, these are insane numbers (NHLE: 46, about where Hall was as a junior in his draft year).
  5. (5) D Jacob Chychrun, Sarnia Sting (OHL): Impressive overall skills, he is not stepping forward from a year ago in the offensive categories. So difficult to measure defensemen in terms of offense, but if he is going top five overall, must be a complete talent.
  6. (6)R Alexander Nylander, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL): Romping through the OHL at a 1.39 points-per-game clip, his brother is probably the best comparable.
  7. (7) D Mikhail Sergachev, Windsor Spitfires (OHL): He has a big shot and skates well, appears to have a complete set of skills. I think we will see some separation of these defensemen as the season rolls.
  8. (8) R Alex DeBrincat, Erie Otters (OHL): Small sniper, he is at 1.66 points-per-game and has 38 goals in 41 OHL games. I am probably underrating him here.
  9. (9) C Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cape Breton Screaming Eagles (QMJHL): Has size, skill, speed and defensive awareness.
  10. (13) D Dante Fabbro, Penticton Vees (BCJHL): Kirk Luedeke describes him as ‘smooth’ and possessing two-way ability.
  11. (11) D Olli Juolevi, London Knights (OHL): Smooth skater, great passer, he seemed a little shy physically at the WJs. That may hurt his final number at the draft, he looks fabulous from here.
  12. (18) C Clayton Keller, USNDTP (USHL): Undersized, very skilled, above average speed. Looks like there is great offensive potential, he is ripping up the USHL.
  13. (10) R Julien Gauthier, Val D’Or Foreurs (QMJHL): He is a monster 6.04, 224 and has great hands. Speed will be his issue if there is one, he has 36 goals in 38 games.
  14. (17) C Michael McLeod, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL): Playmaking center who will probably stretch to 6.03, 200 pounds as a mature player.
  15. (12) D Jake Bean, Calgary Hitmen (WHL): Intelligent defender with across the board skills, he is not famous like the blue ahead of him. With 46 points in 51 WHL games, he looks like one of the best offensive defenders in the draft.
  16. (14) L Tyson Jost, Penticton Vees (BCJHL). Elite Prospects: Crafty goal-scorer that carries out plays as quickly as he envisions them.
  17. (15) G Carter Hart, Everett Silvertips (WHL): A .925 save percentage gets him here.
  18. (21) C German Rubtsov, Team Russia (MHL). Steve Kournianos of the Draft Analyst suggests he’s arguably the 2016 draft’s best two-way forward.
  19. (16) L Max Jones, London Knights (OHL): Big man (6.03, 201) touted as a power forward, and speed is mentioned as a positive part of his game.
  20. (28) R Taylor Raddysh, Erie Otters (OHL). Another big winger (6.02, 202), he is over a point-per-game in the world’s best junior league.
  21. (19) C Luke Kunin, Wisconsin (NCAA): He is 6.0, 196 and has a range of skills.
  22. (20) L Dillon Dube, Kelowna Rockets (WHL): Undersized WHL scorer who has enjoyed a strong season so far, speedy and cashes a lot at evens.
  23. (22) D Cam Dineen, North Bay Battalion (OHL): Undersized at 6.0, 180 he is mobile, great passer.
  24. (23) C-L Kieffer Bellows, USNDTP (USHL). A nice offensive forward with good size (6.01, 194) and a scorer’s touch.
  25. (24) C Rasmus Asplund, Farjestads (SHL). His is 6.0, 180 and quality checker but the offense will have to come if he is going to stay in the first round.
  26. (25) C-R Nathan Bastian, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL): At 6.04, 207 he possesses both good (and improving) speed and some offensive touch.
  27. (NR) L Riley Tufte, Fargo Force (USHL). Big winger (6.04, 205) with raw skills across a wide range. Complete wild card who may take some time to deliver on promise.
  28. (29) C Sam Steel, Regina Pats (WHL).Fast, quick and skilled.
  29. (30) C Logan Brown, Windsor Spitfires (OHL): He is 6.06, 215 and has impressive offensive skills. A playmaker, the questions revolve around foot speed.
  30. (31) R Simon Stransky, Prince Alberta Raiders (WHL). Small, so he will fall into the second round, but he is a high skill player. 39, 14-28-42 WHL.

McKenzie and his top 60 are here.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

82 Responses to "NHL DRAFT 2016: NEW TOP 30 AND MCKENZIE’S LIST"

  1. Rondo says:

    My guess

    Auston Matthews
    Patrik Laine

    Jesse Puljujarvi
    Matthew Tkachuk

    Jakob Chychrun
    Pierre-Luc Dubois
    Olli Juolevi
    Alexander Nylander
    Clayton Keller
    Michael McLeod

  2. Truth says:

    Didn’t they abolish the insanely stupid draft pick for employing fired (yet still being paid) coaches and executives rule? Instead of making teams honour that horrendous rule the league should give the teams the picks back that they already lost and should nullify all the future ones owed. IMO.

  3. Younger Oil says:

    NHL standings has the Oilers in 30th.

    https://www.nhl.com/standings

  4. Lowetide says:

    Truth:
    Didn’t they abolish the insanely stupid draft pick for employing fired (yet still being paid) coaches and executives rule? Instead of making teams honour that horrendous rule the league should give the teams the picks back that they already lost and should nullify all the future ones owed.IMO.

    Nope. Oilers owe a pick.

  5. Gret99zky says:

    One thing we can be sure of, if they draft a forward he will be on the big club the moment his name is called.

  6. OF17 says:

    Gret99zky:
    One thing we can be sure of, if they draft a forward he will be on the big club the moment his name is called.

    I don’t think that would be wise. Player readiness aside, those ELC years are too valuable too waste them on development. Unless they’re drafting Matthews, it makes way more sense to wait a year to bring them into camp.

  7. Gret99zky says:

    Truth:
    Didn’t they abolish the insanely stupid draft pick for employing fired (yet still being paid) coaches and executives rule? Instead of making teams honour that horrendous rule the league should give the teams the picks back that they already lost and should nullify all the future ones owed.IMO.

    The Bruins could call it off if they chose.

    Which they won’t.

    *spits*

  8. Gret99zky says:

    OF17: I don’t think that would be wise. Player readiness aside, those ELC years are too valuable too waste them on development. Unless they’re drafting Matthews, it makes way more sense to wait a year to bring them into camp.

    No, it wouldn’t be wise.

    I’m basing this on #becauseOilers.

  9. Gret99zky says:

    Lowetide: Nope. Oilers owe a pick.

    Hopefully Chia can get this team out of the basement next season and that pick will be in the 40 somethings.

    *spits*

  10. Rondo says:

    Gret99zky,

    Whatever this means but 2016 is not a strong draft outside the 1st rd. Who knows 2017

  11. OF17 says:

    Reading that article (thanks, Striker) makes me even more emboldened that if the Oilers have a chance to take Laine or Puljujarvi with their pick, they have to take it. Everything has its price of course, but there’s a reason #1-3 overall picks haven’t been knowingly traded in more than a decade. Laine and Puljujarvi look every bit the part of legit top-end prospects, and any deal involving the pick would have to reflect that.

    I don’t know Tkachuk all that well, but he’s looking to be in that realm as well. If he can be Ryan Smyth for 10-15 years, you’ll have to get darn good value for that #4 pick to trade it.

    If the pick is #5 or below, that’s where I start to agree with LT regarding trading it.

  12. Rondo says:

    OF17,

    Top 3 I would pick, and possibly Chychrun depending how he ends the season. After that you would have consider trading the pick.

  13. OF17 says:

    Rondo:
    OF17,

    Top 3I would pick, and possibly Chychrun depending how he ends the season. After that you would have consider trading the pick.

    I wouldn’t exclude Tkachuk from the discussion either. Nearly 2PPG as a hard-nosed, gritty winger. Those don’t come around every day.

  14. Woogie63 says:

    Pick Austin… With the camera ready to catch O’Niell, Simmons and Hodges reaction!

  15. Melman says:

    Cross Big Buff off the D solution/wishful thinking list.

  16. AsiaOil says:

    We are definitively out of the playoff race as of yesterday. Chia needs to sell excess parts that cannot be directly swapped for useful pieces (top 4 dman, big top 6 RW, big 3rd line C) for 2nd, 3rd and 4th round draft picks. Trade the #1 pick for a veteran difference maker and convert players like Purcell, Shultz, Gryba, Fayne, Korpse into as many picks as possible to re-stock the prospect shelves.

  17. GCW_69 says:

    We are on pace for 71 points. The team has been hovering between 69 and 72 for a while now. Playoffs have never been a realistic possibility.

  18. AZOIL says:

    Can NYI afford to resign Trouba at the dollars he is wanting?

  19. böök¡je says:

    I hate that this matters so much.

  20. böök¡je says:

    If the Oilers win the draft lottery this year, instead of a draft lottery party, I suggest that collectively every Oiler fan sit on the couch during the draft with paper bags over our heads. It’s ok to smile at that new #1 overall pick, but its not ok unless you are wearing your head bag.

    Note, we will need to find one of them hippie grocery stores that still have paper bags.

  21. Cahoon says:

    I really like that Dante Fabbro kid, would be cool if we keep the pick and he slides to us.

  22. 31saves says:

    böök¡je,

    Yea those damned plastic bags make you all whoozy

  23. stush18 says:

    I really think if we draft top three, we keep the pick and move a combination of our forwards for indicate help on defense.

    Mathews and laine are likely ready to help in the NHL next year, and chychrun, tvhkcjkk, and pulllarvvvy are probably ready for sheltered roles, like hanifin, etc.

  24. The Hermit says:

    Two BCJHL players in the top 16.

    Both play for the same team.

    I find this highly unusual.

  25. Centre of attention says:

    Crosby’s having a whale of a game. A whale of a 20 game segment. 31 points during that stretch.

    The Sid doubters/haters are suddenly gone again.

  26. BAUCE says:

    böök¡je:
    I hate that this matters so much.

    This.

    I am so disgusted I can’t even get excited about the draft. It’s an embarrassment more than anything else now.

  27. MrEd says:

    Centre of attention,

    Just logged on to say the same thing. Sid is being Sid again. Nice to see.

  28. dustrock says:

    How much is Tkachuk driven by linemates? *cough*Gagner *cough cough*

  29. Mr DeBakey says:

    DON’T PLAY LIKE PUKE FOR PIERRE-LUC!

    * * * * *

    Yesterday at 1:40 at the Copper N Blue Gamethread [my own personal thread nearly] I said,
    There is going to be a lot of bitchin about the Oilers effort in this game.
    So and So did this, Such and Such is a floater.

    All 4 goals are on the G

    Reading this morning’s thread here, I see I nailed it!
    G Money spent a tonne of pixels arguing against the Fly-by crowd.
    His comment at 10:25 this morning is as good as any comment I’ve ever read here.
    “Fancystats don’t “lie” – they just are….”

    I want to point out that the Sportsnet guy went into immediate protect the goalie mode on yesterday’s telecast. He was pointing everywhere except at the culprit.

    When watching a hockey broadcast always remember that the guys with the microphones are NOT trying to inform you. Conduct yourself accordingly.

    * * * * *

    Nilsson should not play another game for the Oilers. There is no point really. There should be a Transaction sending him to Bakersfield and another recalling Broissoit.

  30. MrEd says:

    Congratulations to both the Jets and Buff for the contract today. I like it from both sides.

  31. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Eberle for Trouba.

    Trouba and Purcell for Hamonic and Ho Sang.

  32. Магия 10 says:

    The Hermit:
    Two BCJHL players in the top 16.

    Both play for the same team.

    I find this highly unusual.

    Wow. Oil can trade down to get both 😉

  33. böök¡je says:

    31saves:
    böök¡je,

    Yea those damned plastic bags make you all whoozy

    If we are in the same position come next year at this time, I am going to recommend plastic bags – no holes.

  34. böök¡je says:

    MrEd:
    Congratulations to both the Jets and Buff for the contract today.I like it from both sides.

    Michael Scott is rolling over in his grave!

  35. sliderule says:

    If the oilers don’t win the draft they realy have to take Chychrun .

    He Is going to have about same number of goals as Eckblad in their last two seasons prior to draft.He won’t have as many points as his team was weak until they made a couple of trades.

    Button rates him as best skater in draft and at prospect game testing he was a close second overall.

    If you never draft the top rated defenceman you have to keep hoping you will luck out in later rounds.

    How has that strategy worked out for Oil.

  36. Lois Lowe says:

    The Oilers should draft the BPA, even if it’s a winger, reset the rebuild clock again, and then throw another 18 year old to the wolves. This time it has to work.

  37. Clay says:

    Part of the bummer of this year is that we already got McDavid. When you’ve already won the $60 Million Lottomax, it’s harder to get pumped up over the free doughnut under your Tim’s lid.

    I think this year, more than any since the Oilers started racking up top 4 picks, there’s a real chance they trade the 1st rounder for immediate help. It’s hard to correlate this team getting younger with winning a Cup before Connor turns 27. Especially if Matthews and the two Finns are off the table.

  38. G Money says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    That’s exactly right. I don’t want to continue to debate the issue from the last thread as a few people’s feelings appear to have been hurt, but anyone who watches their team go down 3-0 halfway through the first period after just 10 shots on net – with the legitimately dangerous chances coming entirely off rebounds on non-dangerous shots – is going to be frustrated and remember all the bad stuff and forget the good stuff.

    You will start watching the game through a lens of anger and frustration and cynicism (I know I did) and there is nothing, NOTHING, that will be reliable about your perception of that game at that point. Absolutely nothing.

    In fact, for most people that lens of anger got created with that first godawful goal on a 60 ft shot from outside the top of the circle. A shot that should go in less than one in a hundred times.

    This is EXACTLY the kind of game where the fancystats will give you an objective read on the actual ebb and flow of the game that no fan watching the game will ever will be able to.

    And if your answer is, “the fancystats are wrong, I know what I saw …” – you are pretty much certain to be dead wrong. It’s a consequence of being human.

    When someone looks at me and earnestly says, “I know what I saw,” I am fond of replying, “No you don’t.” You have a distorted and constructed memory of a distorted and constructed perception, both of which are subservient to whatever narrative your brain is operating under. — Steven Novella

  39. G Money says:

    The 1st pick – even, maybe especially if its 1OV, needs to be on the trading block. So does every winger not named Hall.

    We don’t need more kids who can’t shave yet, no matter how talented.

    We need grown men with hair on their asses*.

    *assuming ass hair is correlated with skill at hockey

  40. Gordies Elbow says:

    G Money,

    Not every winger not named Hall.

    Every player not named McDavid.

    If Hall returns what is needed to support McDavid during the run, it’s the right deal to make.

  41. Frank the dog says:

    Hi Lt. Not too good a day today in your neck of the woods. St Albert trail, 4:10 pm, eastbound minivan in the far right land drove straight through a red light into rush hour traffic at around 60kmh, causing a 4 car pile up. Totalled my car first, then hit a big SUV carrying a family with expecting Mom and kids, which was then hit by another southbound car that couldn’t stop in time.
    Everybody seems ok, me included.
    Now you know.

  42. Zelepukin says:

    Let’s keep Matthews (you know we’re going to win the lottery) and run McD – Drai – Nuge – Matthews. 4 lines of scoring. What’s better than unicorns? Centaurs? Can we run centaurs? It’s Drai’s turn for LTIR anyways, right?

  43. G Money says:

    Gordies Elbow,

    If you add the caveat ‘if you can get the right return’, there are no untradeable players. Not even McDavid. (ref: Lindros and the Nordiques)

    But I’m taking Hall and the 3xC off the table under the assumption that the only way you win that trade is if you get a legit young 1D with a decent contract back, and I just don’t see that happening.

    (And with McD, you need lots more back in order to not lose that trade)

  44. G Money says:

    Frank the dog,

    Yikes! Glad to hear you are OK.

  45. Lowetide says:

    Frank the dog:
    Hi Lt. Not too good a day today in your neck of the woods. St Albert trail, 4:10 pm, eastbound minivan in the far right land drove straight through a red light into rush hour traffic at around 60kmh,causing a 4 car pile up. Totalled my car first, then hit a big SUV carrying a family with expecting Mom and kids, which was then hit by another southbound car that couldn’t stop in time.
    Everybody seems ok, me included.
    Now you know.

    Oh man, that is awful. Glad you are okay.

  46. Gordies Elbow says:

    G Money,

    I can’t see Edmonton trading McD (what’s the current line on Carson, Gelinas, 3 1sts, and $15m?)

    I think that one of the chosen one’s is on McLellan’s transaction list.

    I guess we will find out by the end of the month.

  47. Gordies Elbow says:

    Frank the dog,

    Thoughts are with you. Hope everyone’s OK.

  48. Cahoon says:

    Zelepukin,

    Centaurs whose heads have a unicorn horn coming out of their foreheads.

  49. Rondo says:

    I would take one of these.

    Auston Matthews
    Patrik Laine
    Jesse Puljujarvi
    Jakob Chychrun
    Pierre-Luc Dubois

  50. G Money says:

    Zelepukin:
    Let’s keep Matthews (you know we’re going to win the lottery) and run McD – Drai – Nuge – Matthews. 4 lines of scoring. What’s better than unicorns? Centaurs? Can we run centaurs? It’s Drai’s turn for LTIR anyways, right?

    Laser unicorns!

  51. Kitchener says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Eberle for Trouba.

    Trouba and Purcell for Hamonic and Ho Sang.

    I watched Ho Sang play last weekend. I’m not convinced he can transition to the NHL.

  52. Hope is a good thing says:

    Statistical analysis versus subjective viewing: just ask the police how reliable witnesses are when describing people/events!

  53. G Money says:

    Hope is a good thing,

    Yup.

    Here’s what I would consider a short must-read article (again, from neuroscientist Steven Novella) of just how unreliable our memories are: http://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/implanting-false-memory/#more-3307

    Some selected excerpts if you don’t want to click:


    One of the primary intellectual themes of modern skepticism is that we need to understand the brain as a tool for gathering, processing, and storing information. The brain is a powerful, but extremely flawed, instrument subject to numerous cognitive biases, selective and distorted perception, and malleable memory.

    The illusion that we perceive and store information in an objective an accurate way is compelling – but that too is just another construct of the brain.

    Every time someone says, “I know what I saw” or “I have a clear memory” they are being profoundly naive. Modern neuroscience has taught us that there is practically no limit to the extent to which we can be fooled, especially by ourselves.

    We tend to equate vividness and details with high confidence in the accuracy of a memory. Yet, high confidence is not a predictor of accuracy.

    This is also why, in more everyday examples, it is important to be skeptical of your own memories, no matter how vivid they are or confident you are in their accuracy.

  54. striker says:

    G Money: We need grown men with hair on their asses*.
    *assuming ass hair is correlated with skill at hockey

    r = 0.72

  55. G Money says:

    striker,

    Excellent.

    Now I hate to ask this, but … what was your data source?

    Been looking for an ass hair dataset.

  56. striker says:

    G Money,

    What is this an interrogation! I don’t have to stand for this, I’m leaving.

    Good day sir!!

    Edit: sorry overreacted there, original field research…don’t ask…it’s better if you don’t…

  57. G Money says:

    striker,

    Damn, that’s what I was afraid of. Guess I’m going to have to dust off the ass hair survey and self-test kit I was planning to send to every NHLer.

    Also – anyone familiar with North American harassment laws? Asking for a friend.

    (get it? hair-ass-meant?)

  58. GCW_69 says:

    Question spawned by a comment over st c’n’b – if there was a redraft of the 2012 draft based on what we know today, what does the top five look like?

  59. Dr. Taboggan says:

    GCW_69

    1. Hampus Lindholm
    2. Filip Forsberg
    3. Olli Maatta
    4. Jacob Trouba
    5. Alex Glachenyuk

    Honorable Mentions: Dumba, Murray, Yak, Rielly, Pearson, Gostisbehere

    I might be forgetting someone.

    But knowing what we know now I think it is safe to say Yak would not be in the top-5 possibly not in the top-10. No slight to Yak, but there are a lot of dmen trending in a good direction from that draft.

  60. Younger Oil says:

    I know we need defence badly, but for some reason I keep picturing getting the 1st OV pick, and trading down and making another trade to turn Matthews and a couple other picks/prospects into #2 and #3 OV, and drafting Laine and Puljujarvi, and going into 2016-17 with a top 9 of:

    Hall-Draisaitl-Eberle
    Pouliot-McDavid-Yakupov
    Laine-Nuge-Puljujarvi

    Then have every single one of them get at least 55 points, then start making trades for defenders.

    It’s never, ever going to happen, but it would be hilarious to see.

  61. BONE207 says:

    böök¡je,

    How about the flowery reusable bags? We may as well look good while we steal another top pick. Besides, maybe this site will be able to laugh a bit after all the angst here the last 24 hours.

  62. Aron_S says:

    G Money:
    The 1st pick – even, maybe especially if its 1OV, needs to be on the trading block. So does every winger not named Hall.

    We don’t need more kids who can’t shave yet, nomatter how talented.

    We need grown men with hair on their asses*.

    *assuming ass hair is correlated with skill at hockey

    I know it’s late, but if ass hair correlated to skill at hockey, I’d be Connor McDavid.

    Seriously, no one else took this grenade?

  63. BONE207 says:

    Zelepukin:
    Let’s keep Matthews (you know we’re going to win the lottery) and run McD – Drai – Nuge – Matthews. 4 lines of scoring. What’s better than unicorns? Centaurs? Can we run centaurs? It’s Drai’s turn for LTIR anyways, right?

    Ya …centaurs…with hairy asses* (assuming ass hair makes a better player) Fire breathing dragons would have been my choice but what the hell. I’m just a fan who has whiskey, no team worth watching and a pile of assorted bags to put on my head. Not sure how this will end…

  64. SwedishPoster says:

    G Money,

    Though there is a difference between actively watching something with a more or less trained eye, while also rewatching key moments and just a memory.

    The big risk with the eye test in hockey isn’t the unreliable nature of memories but personal bias, confirmation bias, which is strong as hell with watching hockey. Bias ofc plays a big role in what kind of false memories you create in your everyday life as well . Personal opinions on players, but also what a good hockey player should look like, how hockey should be played. Which tends to benefit style over substance, and blow up certain moments while forget others depending on your bias.

    There are obvious flaws to thw eye. But the stats we have in hockey have their limitations as well, that’s the reason we keep looking at ways to improve them. Adam Wu made a comment in the previous thread that the eye is more incomplete than the stats and that’s true for the things we actually can quantify since it removes our biases. It doesn’t hold true for things we still can’t quantify. In those cases the eye wins on walk over.
    And we’ve seen how your DanFen can paint a vastly different picture to the corsi in a game, imagine a way to optimize the formula to include time and space, if the goalie had to make a lateral move just before the shot, it might as big a difference or more in some games.

    Both the eye and the numbers need to be questioned all the time. In the word of Dara O’Briain “science knows it doesn’t know everything, otherwise it would stop”.

  65. BONVIE says:

    Younger Oil:
    I know we need defence badly, but for some reason I keep picturing getting the 1st OV pick, and trading down and making another trade to turn Matthews and a couple other picks/prospects into #2 and #3 OV, and drafting Laine and Puljujarvi, and going into 2016-17 with a top 9 of:

    Hall-Draisaitl-Eberle
    Pouliot-McDavid-Yakupov
    Laine-Nuge-Puljujarvi

    Then have every single one of them get at least 55 points, then start making trades for defenders.

    It’s never, ever going to happen, but it would be hilarious to see.

    Wow i just listened to Lowtide’s last show and Reinhart really took the brunt. He was one of the few plus players on the entire Oilers team before yesterdays game. He has a -4 game against the Islanders where i cant really point to him making errors on any of the goals he was on for, and suddenly he is not an NHL player. Going from a great game straight to being banished from the league forever you know hes pretty much the same age as Nurse.

    His numbers both points and plus minus in the minors look pretty good compared with Nurses. I think Reinhart is a good Defenseman who needs to play in the NHL now. Most of the guys that dislike him are just in love with the perpetual prospect, just insert two more 18 year old players and everything will change.

    Oilersnation over there isnt worring about the little fish like Reinhart they are full bore on blaming Hall. Those guys have been hiding in the weeds just waiting for Hall to have a couple of bad games, then its out with the Hall turns over the puck narrative.

    Its not all about improving our defense but our defensive game, our forwards are not that good overall on the defensive side of the game. Hall is one of the better ones but wasnt good this weekend.

  66. Professor Q says:

    dustrock:
    How much is Tkachuk driven by linemates?*cough*Gagner *cough cough*

    Not the same situation. Although you did forget about Rob Schremp and Corey Perry.

  67. knighttown says:

    The psychology of coaching…

    If GMoneys theory is correct that the Oilers were almost entirely sunk by goaltending on the island then it’ll be important that he rally his troops. The one thing you can say the Oilers have improved on this year is the reduction in “clear losses”. The amount of times they’ve been blown out heading into this weekend (+2 goals not including EN) is probably between 5-10.

    The Oilers need to believe that they have turned north but simply played a bad and over confident game in Montreal and were let down by goaltending in Brooklyn. I’d even waive Anders if I thought the point was worth making strongly.

    This team cannot afford to fall apart. Tonight’s game is massive.

  68. theres oil in virginia says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Yet another good post on this topic by you. Thanks.

  69. theres oil in virginia says:

    G Money: And if your answer is, “the fancystats are wrong, I know what I saw …” – you are pretty much certain to be dead wrong. It’s a consequence of being human.

    I think it’s fair to say that the stats are incomplete, rather than wrong. It’s a consequence of not being able to take a very fluid and complicated sequence of events comprising a hockey game and boil it down into a single set of numbers that completely characterizes it. Your numbers appear to me to be a much better approximation than some others.

    Incidentally, I agree with your assessment of the Isles game based on those numbers.

  70. Adam Wu says:

    The human brain is an information gathering and processing devices optimized not for accuracy, but for survival. Where the appropriate biases improve survival, it will happily go as far from reliable as it can get away with.

    Where there are no quantifiable measurements, the eye is not, in fact, guaranteed to be better than the stats. The eye is superior ONLY when it’s accuracy is superior to a coin flip. Stats by their nature can never get worse than the 50% coin flip, but thanks to the circumstances described in the first paragraph above, the eye often can be.

    The most recent example I know of is the last US presidential election. All of the so-called experts on the right wing were wrong in their prognostications, to a degree worse than what a random number generator would have produced using the raw polling data. (The left wing experts were also wrong, but to a lesser degree, and they performed better than a coin flip, but not as good as the better statistical models)

    Another example is wine tasting.

    There are MANY fields of human activity where the so-called experts are not really experts at all. You can only trust the experts when the results they produce have been empirically validated.

    And in hockey, no one has ever validated the supposed “expert” eye.

  71. russ99 says:

    I’d love to see a different strategy at the draft table this year.

    Draft on upside, not position or perceived need. Leave the first rounder in Juniors, then let them develop in the AHL before having them fight for a spot in the NHL. More Detroit model than Edmonton model.

    Our Bakersfield boxcards are quite telling, with career AHLers like Ford and Hamilton even close to scoring at a PPG clip, and Tambellini’s Lucic hunt really taking a toll on overall offensive skill.

    Only Slepyshev seems to have the upside to push his way onto a better Oilers roster this fall.

  72. Water Fire says:

    sliderule:
    If the oilers don’t win the draft they realy have to take Chychrun .

    He Is going to have about same number of goals as Eckblad in their last two seasons prior to draft.He won’t have as many points as his team was weak until they made a couple of trades.

    Button rates him as best skater in draft and at prospect game testing he was a close second overall.

    If you never draft the top rated defenceman you have to keep hoping you will luck out in later rounds.

    How has that strategy worked out for Oil.

    Paul Coffey, first round draft pick.

  73. monsterbater says:

    I still want to see the oilers find a way to turn our first rounder (assume top 3), into multiple D upgrades somehow.

    Trade it (2OV), a collection of picks obtained from our pending UFAs, and any other non-critical assets and/or prospects to make it work.

    Can 2OV, a 2nd, and a guy like slepyshev get you a shattenkirk and the St. Louis 1st rounder?

    Can the St. Louis 1st rounder + get you hamonic?

    I don’t know, but i would prefer that path

  74. flea says:

    Trouba AND Hamonic on the block? Can the Oilers get both?? I think they need to push hard for both of those players. Pretty much exactly what they need.

    Eberle for Trouba

    Klefbom or Nurse for Hamonic.

    Steep price to be paid but it’s time to stop wandering in the desert.

    Sekera – Hamonic

    Nurse/Klefbom – Trouba

    That is a legit top four. If the Oilers can pry Trouba out first maybe they really get NYI in a tough spot and can get Hamonic for a winger and depth defender in the offseason.

  75. SwedishPoster says:

    Adam Wu,

    We’re not talking expert opinion over statistical measurement. What you’re describing is the ability to gather info and draw conclusions, in hockey on the overall efficiency of a player or a team.

    We’re talking specific situations, that can be rewatched with a human eye that is not nearly as bad as you make it out to be. And if it is as bad as you claim we’re screwed anyway since the stats are built on shots and distances registered and measured by that very same human eye.

    The eye is far better than a coin toss to describe an image or a sequence of events. With replays it’s way way better.
    What you’re describing is something completely different, an experts ability to correctly analyze a situation based on what information he/she thinks is out there is another story.

  76. OwenCooper says:

    FWIW: You can buy those paper bags at Planet Organic…

    We need NHL players-not more draft picks. If we keep trading for picks then Hall will be grandfather and the Oilers will be in a new building in another part of the continent. However if Tkackuk is available then I vote we draft him. A skilled power forward. We could use some of those. And a top pairing D or two. Send Nilsson to Bakersfield for a couple of weeks please Peter!

  77. elgruntus says:

    That 2nd round pick could be Tyler Bensen. Injuries have really hurt his draft standing, but he is a major talent. Edmonton boy, as well

  78. theres oil in virginia says:

    Adam Wu: Where there are no quantifiable measurements, the eye is not, in fact, guaranteed to be better than the stats. The eye is superior ONLY when it’s accuracy is superior to a coin flip. Stats by their nature can never get worse than the 50% coin flip, but thanks to the circumstances described in the first paragraph above, the eye often can be.

    There are some pretty serious logical flaws in that paragraph:

    Where there are no “quantifiable measurements”, there are no “stats”, so the eye can’t be better or worse than the stats, because they don’t exist.

    If the eye is superior (to the stat, presumably) only when it is better than 50-50, then this implies that the stat (any stat) is locked at 50-50 reliability, or is only as good as a coin flip.

    Stats can certainly be worse than 50-50, especially when the stat being used is not appropriate for the task, but also when the best stat available still contains significant “noise”.

  79. Water Fire says:

    Adam Wu:
    The human brain is an information gathering and processing devices optimized not for accuracy, but for survival. Where the appropriate biases improve survival, it will happily go as far from reliable as it can get away with.

    Where there are no quantifiable measurements, the eye is not, in fact, guaranteed to be better than the stats. The eye is superior ONLY when it’s accuracy is superior to a coin flip. Stats by their nature can never get worse than the 50% coin flip, but thanks to the circumstances described in the first paragraph above, the eye often can be.

    The most recent example I know of is the last US presidential election. All of the so-called experts on the right wing were wrong in their prognostications, to a degree worse than what a random number generator would have produced using the raw polling data. (The left wing experts were also wrong, but to a lesser degree, and they performed better than a coin flip, but not as good as the better statistical models)

    Another example is wine tasting.

    There are MANY fields of human activity where the so-called experts are not really experts at all. You can only trust the experts when the results they produce have been empirically validated.

    And in hockey, no one has ever validated the supposed “expert” eye.

    I see this as coming down to singular events. In my comments yesterday I referred to this. If you don’t have a photographic memory you can’t recall in exact detail specific events. That is different than somebody watching a game and knowing over the course of many events who is playing better and doing the right things to win, including certain players if they are following them.

    How else could people develop any predictive abilities without mounting a scientific experiment? This doesn’t make logical sense and overstates the learning about this topic.

    This is partly what leads to the distaste with some for stats, overstatement of the facts. Hockey has a total of zero stats that are fully developed, other than we know who wins or loses based on goals scored.

    There isn’t enough collected data to develop them further, yet. They are only indicators of things that have to be taken in context and with other info, according to the guys that developed them.

    Good research and knowledge is great, but psychology in particular doesn’t have many absolutes.

  80. Cameron says:

    I don’t want to rain on the parade too much but if Eberle for Trouba were possible, it would already have happened.

    Wpg isnt dealing Trouba for a winger. A D-man of similar age/ability? (i.e. Hamonic), sure. A C like the Nuge? Ok. But there is no chance Eberle is the guy they want.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca