NHL DRAFT 2016: NEW TOP 30 AND MCKENZIE’S LIST

by Lowetide

Bob McKenzie released his mid-season rankings today (here), that’s a good time to re-set Edmonton’s draft situation and my personal top 30. A reminder, my list rewards offense, a range of skills and does not give high value to players who have a lot of their value tied up in the defensive side of the game.

EDMONTON’S CURRENT DRAFT PICKS FOR 2016

The NHL’s draft lottery has changed, so let’s assume for the sake of conversation Edmonton remains at their current number. Here are their current picks:

  • No. 2 overall
  • No. 32 overall (Note: This pick, or the 2017 pick, goes to Boston for Peter Chiarelli)
  • No. 62 overall
  • No. 92 overall
  • No. 122 overall
  • No. 152 overall
  • No. 182 overall

LOWETIDE TOP 30

  1. (1) C Auston Matthews, Zurich Lions (Swiss-A): Running away with top spot, his NLA performance (31GP, 23-15-38) includes a strong recent run.
  2. (2) W Patrik Laine, Tappara (Sm-Liiga): He could be in the NHL next season, sniper is 35GP, 13-14-27 in the SM-Liiga. Great offensive prospect.
  3. (3) R Jesse Puljujarvi, Karpat (Sm-Liiga): Big, fast, incredibly skilledhe is 41GP, 8-12-20 in the SM-Liiga. He is an astounding combination of size and speed.
  4. (4)  Matthew Tkachuk, London Knights (OHL): He is 41GP, 20-57-77 and among the leading OHL scorers in his draft-eligible season. He might be better than the Finns, these are insane numbers (NHLE: 46, about where Hall was as a junior in his draft year).
  5. (5) D Jacob Chychrun, Sarnia Sting (OHL): Impressive overall skills, he is not stepping forward from a year ago in the offensive categories. So difficult to measure defensemen in terms of offense, but if he is going top five overall, must be a complete talent.
  6. (6)R Alexander Nylander, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL): Romping through the OHL at a 1.39 points-per-game clip, his brother is probably the best comparable.
  7. (7) D Mikhail Sergachev, Windsor Spitfires (OHL): He has a big shot and skates well, appears to have a complete set of skills. I think we will see some separation of these defensemen as the season rolls.
  8. (8) R Alex DeBrincat, Erie Otters (OHL): Small sniper, he is at 1.66 points-per-game and has 38 goals in 41 OHL games. I am probably underrating him here.
  9. (9) C Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cape Breton Screaming Eagles (QMJHL): Has size, skill, speed and defensive awareness.
  10. (13) D Dante Fabbro, Penticton Vees (BCJHL): Kirk Luedeke describes him as ‘smooth’ and possessing two-way ability.
  11. (11) D Olli Juolevi, London Knights (OHL): Smooth skater, great passer, he seemed a little shy physically at the WJs. That may hurt his final number at the draft, he looks fabulous from here.
  12. (18) C Clayton Keller, USNDTP (USHL): Undersized, very skilled, above average speed. Looks like there is great offensive potential, he is ripping up the USHL.
  13. (10) R Julien Gauthier, Val D’Or Foreurs (QMJHL): He is a monster 6.04, 224 and has great hands. Speed will be his issue if there is one, he has 36 goals in 38 games.
  14. (17) C Michael McLeod, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL): Playmaking center who will probably stretch to 6.03, 200 pounds as a mature player.
  15. (12) D Jake Bean, Calgary Hitmen (WHL): Intelligent defender with across the board skills, he is not famous like the blue ahead of him. With 46 points in 51 WHL games, he looks like one of the best offensive defenders in the draft.
  16. (14) L Tyson Jost, Penticton Vees (BCJHL). Elite Prospects: Crafty goal-scorer that carries out plays as quickly as he envisions them.
  17. (15) G Carter Hart, Everett Silvertips (WHL): A .925 save percentage gets him here.
  18. (21) C German Rubtsov, Team Russia (MHL). Steve Kournianos of the Draft Analyst suggests he’s arguably the 2016 draft’s best two-way forward.
  19. (16) L Max Jones, London Knights (OHL): Big man (6.03, 201) touted as a power forward, and speed is mentioned as a positive part of his game.
  20. (28) R Taylor Raddysh, Erie Otters (OHL). Another big winger (6.02, 202), he is over a point-per-game in the world’s best junior league.
  21. (19) C Luke Kunin, Wisconsin (NCAA): He is 6.0, 196 and has a range of skills.
  22. (20) L Dillon Dube, Kelowna Rockets (WHL): Undersized WHL scorer who has enjoyed a strong season so far, speedy and cashes a lot at evens.
  23. (22) D Cam Dineen, North Bay Battalion (OHL): Undersized at 6.0, 180 he is mobile, great passer.
  24. (23) C-L Kieffer Bellows, USNDTP (USHL). A nice offensive forward with good size (6.01, 194) and a scorer’s touch.
  25. (24) C Rasmus Asplund, Farjestads (SHL). His is 6.0, 180 and quality checker but the offense will have to come if he is going to stay in the first round.
  26. (25) C-R Nathan Bastian, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL): At 6.04, 207 he possesses both good (and improving) speed and some offensive touch.
  27. (NR) L Riley Tufte, Fargo Force (USHL). Big winger (6.04, 205) with raw skills across a wide range. Complete wild card who may take some time to deliver on promise.
  28. (29) C Sam Steel, Regina Pats (WHL).Fast, quick and skilled.
  29. (30) C Logan Brown, Windsor Spitfires (OHL): He is 6.06, 215 and has impressive offensive skills. A playmaker, the questions revolve around foot speed.
  30. (31) R Simon Stransky, Prince Alberta Raiders (WHL). Small, so he will fall into the second round, but he is a high skill player. 39, 14-28-42 WHL.

McKenzie and his top 60 are here.

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Rondo

My guess

Auston Matthews
Patrik Laine

Jesse Puljujarvi
Matthew Tkachuk

Jakob Chychrun
Pierre-Luc Dubois
Olli Juolevi
Alexander Nylander
Clayton Keller
Michael McLeod

Truth

Didn’t they abolish the insanely stupid draft pick for employing fired (yet still being paid) coaches and executives rule? Instead of making teams honour that horrendous rule the league should give the teams the picks back that they already lost and should nullify all the future ones owed. IMO.

Younger Oil

NHL standings has the Oilers in 30th.

https://www.nhl.com/standings

Gret99zky

One thing we can be sure of, if they draft a forward he will be on the big club the moment his name is called.

OF17

Gret99zky:
One thing we can be sure of, if they draft a forward he will be on the big club the moment his name is called.

I don’t think that would be wise. Player readiness aside, those ELC years are too valuable too waste them on development. Unless they’re drafting Matthews, it makes way more sense to wait a year to bring them into camp.

Gret99zky

Truth:
Didn’t they abolish the insanely stupid draft pick for employing fired (yet still being paid) coaches and executives rule? Instead of making teams honour that horrendous rule the league should give the teams the picks back that they already lost and should nullify all the future ones owed.IMO.

The Bruins could call it off if they chose.

Which they won’t.

*spits*

Gret99zky

OF17: I don’t think that would be wise. Player readiness aside, those ELC years are too valuable too waste them on development. Unless they’re drafting Matthews, it makes way more sense to wait a year to bring them into camp.

No, it wouldn’t be wise.

I’m basing this on #becauseOilers.

Gret99zky

Lowetide: Nope. Oilers owe a pick.

Hopefully Chia can get this team out of the basement next season and that pick will be in the 40 somethings.

*spits*

Rondo

Gret99zky,

Whatever this means but 2016 is not a strong draft outside the 1st rd. Who knows 2017

OF17

Reading that article (thanks, Striker) makes me even more emboldened that if the Oilers have a chance to take Laine or Puljujarvi with their pick, they have to take it. Everything has its price of course, but there’s a reason #1-3 overall picks haven’t been knowingly traded in more than a decade. Laine and Puljujarvi look every bit the part of legit top-end prospects, and any deal involving the pick would have to reflect that.

I don’t know Tkachuk all that well, but he’s looking to be in that realm as well. If he can be Ryan Smyth for 10-15 years, you’ll have to get darn good value for that #4 pick to trade it.

If the pick is #5 or below, that’s where I start to agree with LT regarding trading it.

Rondo

OF17,

Top 3 I would pick, and possibly Chychrun depending how he ends the season. After that you would have consider trading the pick.

OF17

Rondo:
OF17,

Top 3I would pick, and possibly Chychrun depending how he ends the season. After that you would have consider trading the pick.

I wouldn’t exclude Tkachuk from the discussion either. Nearly 2PPG as a hard-nosed, gritty winger. Those don’t come around every day.

Woogie63

Pick Austin… With the camera ready to catch O’Niell, Simmons and Hodges reaction!

Melman

Cross Big Buff off the D solution/wishful thinking list.

AsiaOil

We are definitively out of the playoff race as of yesterday. Chia needs to sell excess parts that cannot be directly swapped for useful pieces (top 4 dman, big top 6 RW, big 3rd line C) for 2nd, 3rd and 4th round draft picks. Trade the #1 pick for a veteran difference maker and convert players like Purcell, Shultz, Gryba, Fayne, Korpse into as many picks as possible to re-stock the prospect shelves.

GCW_69

We are on pace for 71 points. The team has been hovering between 69 and 72 for a while now. Playoffs have never been a realistic possibility.

AZOIL

Can NYI afford to resign Trouba at the dollars he is wanting?

böök¡je

I hate that this matters so much.

böök¡je

If the Oilers win the draft lottery this year, instead of a draft lottery party, I suggest that collectively every Oiler fan sit on the couch during the draft with paper bags over our heads. It’s ok to smile at that new #1 overall pick, but its not ok unless you are wearing your head bag.

Note, we will need to find one of them hippie grocery stores that still have paper bags.

Cahoon

I really like that Dante Fabbro kid, would be cool if we keep the pick and he slides to us.

31saves

böök¡je,

Yea those damned plastic bags make you all whoozy

stush18

I really think if we draft top three, we keep the pick and move a combination of our forwards for indicate help on defense.

Mathews and laine are likely ready to help in the NHL next year, and chychrun, tvhkcjkk, and pulllarvvvy are probably ready for sheltered roles, like hanifin, etc.

Don’t mind me

Two BCJHL players in the top 16.

Both play for the same team.

I find this highly unusual.

Centre of attention

Crosby’s having a whale of a game. A whale of a 20 game segment. 31 points during that stretch.

The Sid doubters/haters are suddenly gone again.

Réal Goudenyéu

böök¡je:
I hate that this matters so much.

This.

I am so disgusted I can’t even get excited about the draft. It’s an embarrassment more than anything else now.

MrEd

Centre of attention,

Just logged on to say the same thing. Sid is being Sid again. Nice to see.

dustrock

How much is Tkachuk driven by linemates? *cough*Gagner *cough cough*

Mr DeBakey

DON’T PLAY LIKE PUKE FOR PIERRE-LUC!

* * * * *

Yesterday at 1:40 at the Copper N Blue Gamethread [my own personal thread nearly] I said,
There is going to be a lot of bitchin about the Oilers effort in this game.
So and So did this, Such and Such is a floater.

All 4 goals are on the G

Reading this morning’s thread here, I see I nailed it!
G Money spent a tonne of pixels arguing against the Fly-by crowd.
His comment at 10:25 this morning is as good as any comment I’ve ever read here.
“Fancystats don’t “lie” – they just are….”

I want to point out that the Sportsnet guy went into immediate protect the goalie mode on yesterday’s telecast. He was pointing everywhere except at the culprit.

When watching a hockey broadcast always remember that the guys with the microphones are NOT trying to inform you. Conduct yourself accordingly.

* * * * *

Nilsson should not play another game for the Oilers. There is no point really. There should be a Transaction sending him to Bakersfield and another recalling Broissoit.

MrEd

Congratulations to both the Jets and Buff for the contract today. I like it from both sides.

Ca$h-McMoney!

Eberle for Trouba.

Trouba and Purcell for Hamonic and Ho Sang.

N64

The Hermit:
Two BCJHL players in the top 16.

Both play for the same team.

I find this highly unusual.

Wow. Oil can trade down to get both 😉

böök¡je

31saves:
böök¡je,

Yea those damned plastic bags make you all whoozy

If we are in the same position come next year at this time, I am going to recommend plastic bags – no holes.

böök¡je

MrEd:
Congratulations to both the Jets and Buff for the contract today.I like it from both sides.

Michael Scott is rolling over in his grave!

sliderule

If the oilers don’t win the draft they realy have to take Chychrun .

He Is going to have about same number of goals as Eckblad in their last two seasons prior to draft.He won’t have as many points as his team was weak until they made a couple of trades.

Button rates him as best skater in draft and at prospect game testing he was a close second overall.

If you never draft the top rated defenceman you have to keep hoping you will luck out in later rounds.

How has that strategy worked out for Oil.

Lois Lowe

The Oilers should draft the BPA, even if it’s a winger, reset the rebuild clock again, and then throw another 18 year old to the wolves. This time it has to work.

Clay

Part of the bummer of this year is that we already got McDavid. When you’ve already won the $60 Million Lottomax, it’s harder to get pumped up over the free doughnut under your Tim’s lid.

I think this year, more than any since the Oilers started racking up top 4 picks, there’s a real chance they trade the 1st rounder for immediate help. It’s hard to correlate this team getting younger with winning a Cup before Connor turns 27. Especially if Matthews and the two Finns are off the table.

G Money

Mr DeBakey,

That’s exactly right. I don’t want to continue to debate the issue from the last thread as a few people’s feelings appear to have been hurt, but anyone who watches their team go down 3-0 halfway through the first period after just 10 shots on net – with the legitimately dangerous chances coming entirely off rebounds on non-dangerous shots – is going to be frustrated and remember all the bad stuff and forget the good stuff.

You will start watching the game through a lens of anger and frustration and cynicism (I know I did) and there is nothing, NOTHING, that will be reliable about your perception of that game at that point. Absolutely nothing.

In fact, for most people that lens of anger got created with that first godawful goal on a 60 ft shot from outside the top of the circle. A shot that should go in less than one in a hundred times.

This is EXACTLY the kind of game where the fancystats will give you an objective read on the actual ebb and flow of the game that no fan watching the game will ever will be able to.

And if your answer is, “the fancystats are wrong, I know what I saw …” – you are pretty much certain to be dead wrong. It’s a consequence of being human.

When someone looks at me and earnestly says, “I know what I saw,” I am fond of replying, “No you don’t.” You have a distorted and constructed memory of a distorted and constructed perception, both of which are subservient to whatever narrative your brain is operating under. — Steven Novella

G Money

The 1st pick – even, maybe especially if its 1OV, needs to be on the trading block. So does every winger not named Hall.

We don’t need more kids who can’t shave yet, no matter how talented.

We need grown men with hair on their asses*.

*assuming ass hair is correlated with skill at hockey

Gordies Elbow

G Money,

Not every winger not named Hall.

Every player not named McDavid.

If Hall returns what is needed to support McDavid during the run, it’s the right deal to make.

Frank the dog

Hi Lt. Not too good a day today in your neck of the woods. St Albert trail, 4:10 pm, eastbound minivan in the far right land drove straight through a red light into rush hour traffic at around 60kmh, causing a 4 car pile up. Totalled my car first, then hit a big SUV carrying a family with expecting Mom and kids, which was then hit by another southbound car that couldn’t stop in time.
Everybody seems ok, me included.
Now you know.

Zelepukin

Let’s keep Matthews (you know we’re going to win the lottery) and run McD – Drai – Nuge – Matthews. 4 lines of scoring. What’s better than unicorns? Centaurs? Can we run centaurs? It’s Drai’s turn for LTIR anyways, right?

G Money

Gordies Elbow,

If you add the caveat ‘if you can get the right return’, there are no untradeable players. Not even McDavid. (ref: Lindros and the Nordiques)

But I’m taking Hall and the 3xC off the table under the assumption that the only way you win that trade is if you get a legit young 1D with a decent contract back, and I just don’t see that happening.

(And with McD, you need lots more back in order to not lose that trade)

G Money

Frank the dog,

Yikes! Glad to hear you are OK.

Gordies Elbow

G Money,

I can’t see Edmonton trading McD (what’s the current line on Carson, Gelinas, 3 1sts, and $15m?)

I think that one of the chosen one’s is on McLellan’s transaction list.

I guess we will find out by the end of the month.

Gordies Elbow

Frank the dog,

Thoughts are with you. Hope everyone’s OK.

Cahoon

Zelepukin,

Centaurs whose heads have a unicorn horn coming out of their foreheads.

Rondo

I would take one of these.

Auston Matthews
Patrik Laine
Jesse Puljujarvi
Jakob Chychrun
Pierre-Luc Dubois