ELECTRIC WARRIOR

by Lowetide

Connor McDavid has played 19 NHL games, and has 24 points. Don’t be upset, he’ll get the hang of it. In a season where the Oilers have looked both hopelessly immature and heavenly in the same game, it is perhaps fitting that a child should lead them all.

RIDE A WHITE SWAN, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
  • Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
  • Oilers in December 2014: 2-8-4
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1
  • Oilers in January 2015: 5-7-1
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2
  • Oilers in February 2015: 5-6-1
  • Oilers in February 2016: 3-3-0
  • Oilers after 56 in 2014-15: 16-31-9, 41 points (-56 GD)
  • Oilers after 56 in 2015-16: 22-29-5, 49 points (-27 GD)

The current Oilers are 12 points away from last year’s total with 26 games to play—they should get there, but let’s see how close the old club can get. I do think the Goddams are impressive, that is some nice improvement.

OILERS DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

oilers blue nov 30

  • Nurse—Schultz were not visually good during the first period, but the overall sway of the game favored them in the final two periods. Nurse played a lot, third most on the team at evens among defensemen, went 11-4 in 5:19 with Hall when the two men were on the ice. He took too many penalties, but he was also 12-2 against the Komarov line. Weird.
  • Schultz is so damned casual with the puck and in coverage, if you watch both GA’s it is on display.
  • Davidson—Gryba were 8-2 with McDavid, what an insane line (more in a minute). I have to say that Davidson’s ability to make plays, including passing the puck well, is a welcome relief from the chaos. Splendid player, fantastic story. Gryba was 2-1 with Nurse, suspect that could be the third pairing when OK returns (Klefbom-Davidson 2nd pair).
  • Sekera—Fayne played fewer minutes at evens, and had the worst Corsi results. They played with all of the lines, didn’t get good results save for Sekera away from Fayne with the McDavid trio. Weird. I expected to see a big minus with Leon’s line (2-5 for Sekera) but for him it was an 0-6 with Yakupov that killed the evening.
  • With Adam Clendening upstairs and Griffin Reinhart in Bakersfield, I believe these are the six best options for Edmonton. I also believe the Oilers should have taken Christian Ehrhoff from waivers.

CENTERS, LAST NIGHT

oil c nov 30

  • Connor McDavid’s points were impressive, but the ease in which he did it is the thing that lingers for me. His second goal was gorgeous, he is freaky with the puck on his stick. No more in-game bathroom breaks folks, not for the next 20 years anyway. He is 4-8-12 in his last six games, and as we have discussed at length, he could be a strong candidate for the Calder Trophy even if he only plays 45 games. He is currently at 1.26 points-per-game (insanity) and that puts him on pace for 57 points. Le holy.
  • Leon Draisaitl and his line were not effective, and their coach broke them up (more in a minute). After being removed from the line, Leon went 1-2 with Kassian, 0-4 with Pakarinen and 1-0 with Yakupov Corsi events. I remain convinced he has some kind of flesh wound.
  • Mark Letestu and his line chased and chased, until McLellan placed him with Hall (7-3) and Kassian (8-8). He is not going to be the 3C in Edmonton when this team gets good.
  • Matt Hendricks didn’t play much at evens, probably due to all the penalties. Anyway, in all situtations, he was 0-27 Corsi events, incredible.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will be back sooner, another day has passed.

https://twitter.com/vaswani_/status/698015428929433600

He is right. Oilers do not deserve 97. The fans do, though. The best fans on the planet, with the collective faith of a child and devotion that cannot be bought for gold or jewels. The hockey Gods rewarded the peasants of the village, that’s a story you can tell to your children.

WINGERS, LAST NIGHT

oilers f nov 30

  • Jordan Eberle got his first hat-trick and reminded us why snipers get paid. Fantastic run on this new line, he is 7-3-10 in the last six games.
  • Benoit Pouliot showed all of who care watch the exact reasons he plays on this line and is productive. A four-point night no one will talk about, but that is his role. He is 2-8-10 in the last six games.
  • Taylor Hall did everything but score, set up Eberle for his hatty (earlier) but nothing rhymed. He was more effective away from Leon (8-7 w/Leon, 8-4 w/o Leon), and I wonder if we see Hall—Letestu—Kassian (7-3) on Saturday. PJ Stock was rambling on about sulking, I don’t get that from Hall. A dynamic player like 4, in his prime, certainly wants to contribute and he should have had a point last night based on all the chances he created. It did not happen. His line is struggling and he is a part of that, for sure. I don’t see a reason to question his maturity, but that has been the go-to for so long from the media. Taylor Hall is an emotional guy, but that is miles from being petty and jealous. I am very disappointed in the coverage of this player by many in the media.
  • Zack Kassian showed up a little more often last night than on the road trip, I wonder if he gets a chance on Hall’s line Saturday (he played with him last night). The key would appear to be Leon, we should watch for maintenance days, etc. I like Kassian as a player, but when he goes quiet offensively it appears to be very quiet. Suspect he needs a center who can push the river.
  • Teddy Purcell seemed to be twixt and tween last night, a bad time for the veteran to have a game where things didn’t work. Why? Oilers need his value to be high through the end of this month for trade purposes.
  • Nail Yakupov had the puck on his stick in promising situations several times, but was unable to create much. I expect he will play a feature role when Purcell is dealt, but am not 100 percent convinced of it.

TALBOT

That is about right, I would add that (for me) Hall and Davidson also played well. Either way, Talbot has a .927 SP since December 1 and that includes a game on the weekend where he came in 0-3 and the team played like garbage in front of him. Peter Chiarelli did not fix everything year 1, but the goalie is helping.

https://twitter.com/NicholsOnHockey/status/697931447324135424

Purcell has been an effective player (56gp, 11-20-31) and is on pace for 45 points this year. I would guess that a second-round pick is possible, although if you look at Edmonton’s AHL team for 2016-17 it would be wise to consider the possibility of a promising young pro being the ask.

The natural course of things would be to have Nail Yakupov move up to the 2line with Leon and Hall, but something tells me that may not be the way it turns out. Todd McLellan has some other options, and one of them involves Zack Kassian and Mark Letestu with Hall, leaving Yakupov to play with Leon Draisaitl and (probably) Matt Hendricks or Lauri Korpikoski. It will be a muddle until Nuge returns.

https://twitter.com/NicholsOnHockey/status/697932044744011776

Lebrun’s choice of words here is inspired. Watching Schultz last night, there is so much about his game that needs to be fixed. He doubles down constantly on errors—the first GA was a ‘region’ pass to no one really, but he followed that up with no urgency to get back. You know, some defensemen put the brakes on and haul ass on mistakes like that one.

https://twitter.com/NicholsOnHockey/status/698163511663276032

That is an interesting name. The leftists will flip their lids, but I like him as a defender and this is a season in which he is struggling a little—might be the last time to get him before 30. I like the idea of acquiring Brodin, although he has not been a great possession player over these years.

indy

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun Friday, as we head toward the weekend. TSN1260, beginning at 10. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, Big Mouth Sports. Putting McDavid’s rookie season into historical perspective.
  • Antony Bent, FC Edmonton. New GM for the Eddies, how does that impact Colin Miller?
  • Kevin Radomski, Edmonton Oil Kings Director of Business Operations. Oil Kings play Family Day at 2, and there is a lot going on!
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. He’s back!
  • Dan Tencer. WHL scout, compelling broadcaster.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

 

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SoCaloil

HHahaha Some colourful commentary on my Ray Bourque comment

If Ray Bourque lost the puck, He skated like hell to get it back
I have not seen that kind of determination out of anyone except maybe doughty
Miss watching Bouque play

That first goal against was atrocious. You could feel it coming on for miles and miles
I wander if we purge Jultz and sign Yandle. Expansive , but word is he doesn’t want to resign with NYR bc not enough ice time. Think he could be a welcome addition although I’d like to see someone tougher

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

anyone that suggestsHamonic for Eberle is beyond goofy.

A 35 goal scorer had never been (and will never be worth) Klefbom lite

This kind of uninformed BS is boring.

Grab a brain and bring something to the table that isn’t bullsit for once.

The trolling is beyond annoying and trading a 35 goal scorer for fucking Hamonic is pathetic.

Ya he’s a nice Petry but he ain’t worth s guy that can score,Get over it

jm363561

Todd McLellan is missing Nuge and Klefbom.He had one line firing and Davidson looked like he knew what he was doing but the rest of the team looked like table hockey players spinning in circles with no rhyme nor reason to their game, awful forechecking, awful back checking, awful coverage, awful breakouts, awful zone entries, awful zone exits.That was game 56.You would think by game 56 McLellan would have the team playing some form of a system instead of spinning their wheels
======

A very good observation. The “nice” improvement in points and goal difference can be almost totally explained by much improved goal tending. Injuries have been an issue but they were last year. I have not yet lost faith in Chia and TMac but I now foresee a massive roster turnover.

Next year one of our two defensively inept snipers, Yak or Eberle, will be gone – if Yak were not cute, likeable and a No 1 pick, it would not even be a matter for debate.

Bruce McCurdy

Pouzar: HOW DARE YOU!!!! NEWF on NEWF Crime!!!

What crime is this of which you speak? I am very proud of my island heritage, I’ll have you know.

Bruce McCurdy

Klima’s_Bucket: Don’t forget Klima’s heroics in game 1 triple OT of the Finals…

5. EDM Klima (Kurri, MacTavish) 55:13

theres oil in virginia

RJ2016: I always find these kinds of questions amusing.

It assumes that the only logical answer is agrees with the questioner.

It’s easy to do in reverse: KLowe and MacT had a plan to build the team. It wasn’t working. You bring in outsiders like PC and TM who can evaluate the team with fresh eyes and make changes in systems and personnel. That will mean jettisoning some of the KLowe/TMac core. Why do some people want to cling to a failed plan that’s resulted in ten years out of the playoffs?

Yeah, I’m drinking too. I think you may be ahead of me, though and I’ve got 2 hours on you (assuming you’re in EDM). You cheated.

Pouzar

Klima’s_Bucket: Don’t forget Klima’s heroics in game 1 triple OT of the Finals…

No chance. 🙂

RJ2016

theres oil in virginia: OIL,

I always find these kinds of questions amusing.

It assumes that the only logical answer is agrees with the questioner.

It’s easy to do in reverse: KLowe and MacT had a plan to build the team. It wasn’t working. You bring in outsiders like PC and TM who can evaluate the team with fresh eyes and make changes in systems and personnel. That will mean jettisoning some of the KLowe/TMac core. Why do some people want to cling to a failed plan that’s resulted in ten years out of the playoffs?

Water Fire

theres oil in virginia:
G Money,

I thoroughly enjoyed this post.Reminded me of why I read this blasted, Eberle-hating blog every day.

LT, why do your posters hate Eberle?

It’s the gap. Worse than sideburns.

Professor Q

Sigh. Carolina celebrating their Stanley Cup all week.

What to do to get my mind off of it…

Pouzar

Bruce McCurdy: The “baymen” from the outports spoke various permutations of the lingo with even stronger accents.

HOW DARE YOU!!!! NEWF on NEWF Crime!!!

GCW_69

Ducey:
How is the Marincin for Gryba “trade” looking?

I see the Martian is still “underappreciated” in TO. He played just 12:47 minutes last night.No other TO Dman played less than 18.

And Toronto’s shot attempts with him on the ice were 18 – 4 in Toronto’s favor. Anyone else from Toronto do that well?

Klima's_Bucket

Woodguy: if the Oilers don’t pick in the top 2 and he’s there when they pick, it’s a *must pick*

Don’t you think I know the difference between a pick and a scratch?
Are we not human, if we pick do we not bleed?

AsiaOil

Toss a trade idea out with the qualification that I’m a pretty big fan of Craig Smith’s game. He was one of the leagues’s strongest ES scorers last year, good size and speed. This would clear our jam at LHD and free us up to cash in Ebs for a very good dman like Hamonic either directly or in a 3 way.

Reinhart & Yak

for

Craig Smith & NAS first round pick.

Either before the deadline or pre-draft (maybe more likely). NAS doesn’t have a lot of depth on defense after they traded Jones (especially LHD) and Yak could replace Smith (downgrade obviously but one with potential). One could argue I’m over or under valuing people – not sure – but interested in opinions.

Hall RNH Drai
Pou CMD Smith

Klef Hamonic (example)
Davidson Sekera
Nurse Fayne Gryba

Still need to fix the 3rd line…………

Snowman

Woodguy,

I recall reading a couple scouting reports that had Ekblad as a comparable for Hanifan (maybe it was in terms of relative potential ceiling).

I just checked the vollman for Ekblad and you’re right. Gudbranson and Willie Mitchell definitely do the heavy lifting for Florida but it doesn’t change my opinion on Ekblad being a freak or picking Chychrun.

Picking a D in the draft likely does absolutely nothing to help you improve the team for next season in the most likely case.

You have to fix the D and the pick is the first asset I try to move out (unless its Austin Matthews and even then, even if it is Matthews, I’d shop it around to see what I could get.)

Woodguy

sliderule:
Snowman,

If you look at the list you can see that all the defencemen would be rated higher than Hamonic

I would doubt if any of the teams would make a straight trade for him.The younger ones might not be quiteas good at this point but the potential is so much higher.

Chychrun is a far better skater than Ekblad and scored at a higher rate in his draft minus one season.
If you watch him play you can see that he is also a freak of nature.

Derrian *spits* Hatcher is tanking his draft status.

if the Oilers don’t pick in the top 2 and he’s there when they pick, it’s a *must pick*

theres oil in virginia

G Money,

🙂

I thoroughly enjoyed this post. Reminded me of why I read this blasted, Eberle-hating blog every day.

LT, why do your posters hate Eberle?

Kitchener

What Draisaitl needs is a healthy RNH.

Remember the days when Nuge would saw off chances 50:50 against the league’s best? Bring back those days and the days of Draisaitl scoring over a point a game will follow shortly thereafter.

Being 20 years old is not a crime.

Professor Q

DocFan:
So…would anyone do this:

Eberle plus 2016 First for Stamkos and Hedman? (Not Lottery Protected)?

Sorta works for both sides I think? Could we afford the cap on Hedman / Stamkos with McDavid Re-upping?

If that could even be possible, then yes.

sliderule

frjohnk,

What teenager is the best player on the team?

If we had a couple more teenagers like him wooot.

Woodguy

DocFan:
So…would anyone do this:

Eberle plus 2016 First for Stamkos and Hedman? (Not Lottery Protected)?

Sorta works for both sides I think? Could we afford the cap on Hedman / Stamkos with McDavid Re-upping?

Yz wants to trade his Norris candidate Dman because…………..?

Woodguy

Snowman:
The thing about drafting someone and thinking they are going to be Ekblad is that they are most likely not going to be Ekblad. Ekblad had the third most productive 18 year old season (0.48ppg)by ANY Dman. He was behind Phil Housley (0.86ppg!!) and Bobby Orr (0.67ppg). Ekblad did this playing top pairing minutes. The guy is a freak. He’s an outlier.

If you’re drafting someone, you pray that you might get lucky and draft someone who is like Ekblad. Assuming you’re going to get someone similar will surely lead to disappointment.

Hanifan was supposed to be like Ekblad. He’s good. He’s playing in the NHL. He’s not Ekblad. He’s playing 3rd pairing minutes and 3rd pairing comp. He’s doing very well. If you get Hanifan in this years draft and you’re the Oilers he does not help you where you need help. He helps you in 2 or 3 years where you need help.

You can’t draft these kids and assume because Florida got Ekblad that you are going to also get Ekblad. It doesn’t work like that. You might get a very good D but it might take him 5 years to grow into one. It might take him 2 games. When you draft you have to be prepared to not see the fruits of that pick for a few years.

If you don’t fix the D, you draft in the lottery year after year after year after year. You have to fix the D. You have to. If you don’t, forget playoffs in the new building. Forget it. Won’t happen.

Instead you’ll be playing in toilet bowl games in February. Again.

Same as it ever was.

Ekblad had 3rd pairing comp in his rookie year, not first.

He also had Brian Campbell as a partner.

Good spot for him and he killed it.

Also,

I don’t think anyone expected Hanifin to be Ekblad

He’s had a Heinz 57 selection of most common partners in his 756 5v5 minutes as well.

Slavin 249min – who? seriously, never heard of him
Murphy 188min – Many people call him a “bust”
Pesce 113 min – Who?

A much, much different situation than Ekblad found himself in.

DocFan

So…would anyone do this:

Eberle plus 2016 First for Stamkos and Hedman? (Not Lottery Protected)?

Sorta works for both sides I think? Could we afford the cap on Hedman / Stamkos with McDavid Re-upping?

Snowman

sliderule,

I have no doubt Chychrun is good. My point is that the Oilers need to fix the D now.

Chychrun likely is a 3rd pairing guy next season (like Hanifan who is very good). We have approximately 925 of those already. He will likely be better in the long run but that doesn’t help you now. Sure he might grow into a top pairing guy. He also might not. You absolutely cannot bank on drafting a D this year and having him slide into your top 4 reliably next year.

Fix the D now. Or draft in the top 8 again next season. Those are essentially the options as I see them.

I know which one I would choose if I was GM.

Ca$h-McMoney!

sliderule:
Snowman,

This team if you add Hamonic may be a playoff contender but unless you get an elite defender like first pick defenders usually are and which Chychrun projects at you won’t be competing for the cup.

Looking at the list:

2008 Doughty
2009 Hedman
2010 Gudbranson
2011 Larsson
2012 Murray
2013 Jones
2014 Ekblad
2015 Hanifin.

I’d say there are 3 first pick defenders who are elite (the two oldest of the bunch and Ekblad) since 2008. Larsson is very good but probably doesn’t fit that definition yet, might soon, and he’s from 2011. Gudbranson and Murray certainly aren’t. We don’t know what we have in Jones or Hanifin yet.

Pajamah

Woodguy:
Fog of Warts,

Shakespeare invented words.

Maybe not at your rate, but still.

I’d imagine that’s part of the 50%

Its like the Simpsons episode where they go to Australia

Their consulate shows a clip of a “Yahoo Serious Festival”

“I know those words, but that sign makes no sense”

As far as I am concerned, you cant just toothpaste alligator clod bookmark.

sliderule

Snowman,

If you look at the list you can see that all the defencemen would be rated higher than Hamonic

I would doubt if any of the teams would make a straight trade for him.The younger ones might not be quite as good at this point but the potential is so much higher.

Chychrun is a far better skater than Ekblad and scored at a higher rate in his draft minus one season.
If you watch him play you can see that he is also a freak of nature.

Woodguy

Fog of Warts,

Shakespeare invented words.

Maybe not at your rate, but still.

I’d imagine that’s part of the 50%

frjohnk

I say no to having rookie teenagers on the roster next year.

And the year after

And the year after

And the year after

2016’s 1st rounder should be on the table after the draft lottery. That way we and other teams know the value. It should be the first trade chip gone.

Snowman

The thing about drafting someone and thinking they are going to be Ekblad is that they are most likely not going to be Ekblad. Ekblad had the third most productive 18 year old season (0.48ppg) by ANY Dman. He was behind Phil Housley (0.86ppg!!) and Bobby Orr (0.67ppg). Ekblad did this playing top pairing minutes. The guy is a freak. He’s an outlier.

If you’re drafting someone, you pray that you might get lucky and draft someone who is like Ekblad. Assuming you’re going to get someone similar will surely lead to disappointment.

Hanifan was supposed to be like Ekblad. He’s good. He’s playing in the NHL. He’s not Ekblad. He’s playing 3rd pairing minutes and 3rd pairing comp. He’s doing very well. If you get Hanifan in this years draft and you’re the Oilers he does not help you where you need help. He helps you in 2 or 3 years where you need help.

You can’t draft these kids and assume because Florida got Ekblad that you are going to also get Ekblad. It doesn’t work like that. You might get a very good D but it might take him 5 years to grow into one. It might take him 2 games. When you draft you have to be prepared to not see the fruits of that pick for a few years.

If you don’t fix the D, you draft in the lottery year after year after year after year. You have to fix the D. You have to. If you don’t, forget playoffs in the new building. Forget it. Won’t happen.

Instead you’ll be playing in toilet bowl games in February. Again.

Same as it ever was.

Rondo

If I was guessing this would be Oilers Top 5 in the draft.

1.Auston Matthews
2.Patrik Laine
3.Jesse Puljujarvi/Jakob Chychrun
4.Jakob Chychrun/.Jesse Puljujarvi
5.Pierre-Luc Dubois

Water Fire

sliderule:
Snowman,

Chychrun has a body like Doughty and Ekblad in that it is NHL ready.

If you look at the list and even review some of the second selections like OEL and you will see that within two or three years or sooner they were playing at a top level.

This team if you add Hamonic may be a playoff contender but unless you get an elite defender like first pick defenders usually are and which Chychrun projects at you won’t be competing for the cup.

I think Chychrun is the best for the Oilers as well, if he’s healthy long term. That gives Chiarelli a lot of options if he turns out like he might including moving Sekera’s 5.5M in a few years. Wingers can be signed.

I think Eriksson if he goes UFA might be a nice pick up if the contract is moveable at the end, isn’t too high and they lose a winger. He’d be a very good fit with CMD and Lucic 🙂

Pajamah

sliderule:
Snowman,

Chychrun has a body like Doughty and Ekblad in that it is NHL ready.

If you look at the list and even review some of the second selections like OEL and you will see that within two or three years or sooner they were playing at a top level.

This team if you add Hamonic may be a playoff contender but unless you get an elite defender like first pick defenders usually are and which Chychrun projects at you won’t be competing for the cup.

All I hear about Doughty is that his body type is Kyle Wellwood/Phil Kesselesque. The inexplicable part is the guy could play 60 minutes without taking one deep breath.

He is a freak of nature.

blainer

Bruce McCurdy: I am a Newfoundlander myself, a “townie” from St. John’s. The “baymen” from the outports spoke various permutations of the lingo with even stronger accents.

One time at an astronomical convention I effectively acted as an English-to-English interpreter in an exchange between a “bayman” and a Louisianan. (Maybe better described as creole-to-creole) They literally could not understand one another, although I was able to follow both, at least to a degree. So I would paraphrase what each had said and the other would be able to understand ME (at least to a degree!).

Very funny situation, I have never forgotten it.

ADD: The only reason I understood the Louisianan was from a few years of listening to interviews with former Eskimo great Ron “Swamp Dog” Estay.

LOL.. Have had a similar situation happen as a townie also.. I had to be the translator between two baymen from different parts of the island. I could understand both but they could not understand each other.. quite funny actually for all of us.

Pajamah

Fog of Warts:
Well ain’t that a geographical oddity: here (and only here) you can wake up with severely mixed feelings about a five point night from the newest Benjamin Button–protagonist of Salvation Story XIII, without so much as sniffing at the glass half empty.

———

This morning a colleague put me onto Eliezer Yudkowsky’s “Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality” (originally under the pen name “Less Wrong”), this being 2000-odd pages of dearly beloved fanfic, appealing in the main (on first scratch) to the scattered sympathizers of the Singularians in Training new world order.

I’m not normally a joiner, but I would myself definitely show up to check out my local chapter of the LessWrong meetup group, should the room of requirements someday barf one up.

Forget about all of that, we’ve got more interesting fish to fry.

First we have SingularityWritingAdvice, there being never a document written wherein I find myself in a more violent state of 50% agreement.

One of his maxims (twice fried): “Better strangely terse than sucky.”

That’s surely an odd bedfellow for my meditations of the week.I was thinking precisely of my recent scribblings that some have actually passed right through the tersosity horizon, and become a bad thing, mainly out of guilt.

It used to be that when real life cut some whimsical outpouring short, concision would suffer; that second quick pass being mainly used to excise some fat—leaving some extra junk in the truck if your liposuction wand pumpkins mid-slurp.

Does anyone else recall the joyous childhood moment when you first discover that the vacuum cleaner hose can also be affixed the other direction?(No twittering in back; we’re talking curious childhood, people, though this does blend into the next stage.)

These days, I more often find myself in pre-shipment passover—in fresh airy exodus from slavery of the ruse—hose-fitting my liposuction pump in reverse.If the damn thing pumpkins mid-stroke (Drums of Moria on line one—I really think you should take this call now), what results is Twiggy Stardust.When it comes to stardust, a little flesh on the bones is a good thing.What distinguishes stardust from space rust is a sufficient coating of butter (the rest of the chemistry being largely the same).

Tip #2: Stay out of your writing

Squeeze me?Like hell.

Tip #5: Be kind

Sometimes I’m an ass.Sometimes I’m—me again—not nice, either.But around these parts—in one of the all-time geographical oddities of the intertubes—the kindred spirit is alive and well.We don’t actually know what it eats.We gather around the gaunt snapping turtle asking ourselves: It does eat, eventually, doesn’t it?Surely it must be getting peckish?

“Food” is regarded as a somewhat mythical substance.Old-timers share stories about the Reagan-era groaning board.Young pups go “Puhleeese, the Reagan era?Are you on drugs?”Yes, children.Back in the Reagan era, there was this Old Woman Who Lived in a Shoe.She didn’t actually have the large family that propaganda now records, but Santa was so abundant—if you hung enough sleigh-bell sequinned socks—people got the wrong idea, and it grew from there.

Tip #9: Don’t invent new words

God help this man revive his funny bone.

Tip #12. Don’t harangue your audience

Does this include or not include coat-hanger origami?

———

But wait, there’s one more filet.

Author’s Note Ch. 98

Oh, you lucky fucking bastard.A mere 24.5?You call THAT a disorder?

Try 24 hours and 90 minutes.Put that in your orrery and rotate.

Interestingly, he makes a list of many things he’s previously tried, which I won’t indent.Just close your eyes and imagine.

Taking low-dose melatonin 1-2 hours before bedtime

Check.

Using timed-release melatonin

Check.

Installing red lights (blue light tells your brain not to start making melatonin)

In my case, this was a yellow bug light, which was slow to warm up.Loved that thing.You could make it for a sleepy piss and back without it blowing out your “night” vision.

Using blue-blocking sunglasses after sunset

Thought about it, but I what I did instead was install the software utility Redshift to change my monitor colour palettes to match ambient conditions (this helps mostly to maintain my cure, and is not the cause of it).

Using a sleep mask

Sometimes two, for more flashing.

Watching the sunrise

At that time, we had an optimal room for that—it was called “the sun room”.

Watching the sunset

At fucking 16:00 in December.Oh, I remember it well.

Blocking out all light from the windows in my bedroom using aluminum foil

We found a tarp at Canadian tire that perfectly matched the outdoor paint.This was a better choice as our bedroom window faced a lovey street.There were additional layers, and a couple of bust-enlargement caliber free-weights to suppress flutter.

then lining the door-edges with foam to prevent light from slipping in the cracks

So he wouldn’t have to use a sleep mask?Seriously?There was an old lady who swallowed a fly …Then she got her ass out of bed and super-glued her lips together.

Spending a total of ~$2200 on three different mattresses

This might sound unrelated, but it isn’t.Any other excuse for not sleeping soundly is a first-class confound.It was my second attempt at a $1000 latex mattress that finally turned the trick.

Taking modafinil and R-modafinil

Oh, yeah, baby.It’s a fun drug until you acquire tolerance to the happy effects.It’s still useful to me when I have to patch over a skid into the ditch.

Buying a gradual-light-intensity-increasing, sun alarm clock for ~$150

Mine is a Phillips GloLite Blue, about the same price, but not in any way gentle—it’s a blue light from hell at the optimal circadian frequency.

Wearing earplugs

We lucked into a nice neighborhood.

Putting 2 humidifiers in my room, a warm humidifier and a cold humidifier

I guess he was worried about that infamous crusty nose-cootie nightmare fuel.We settled for a nice view of the Pacific ocean.

Buying an auto-adjusting CPAP machine for $650 off Craigslist in case I had sleep apnea

Me, I had a lemon tree with sharp elbows.Rarely I had any breathing issues, and we had a pact.Well doh! don’t just lie there steaming with me snorking!Puncture my darn balloon.The literature I’ve seen says nothing good about time spent sleeping, half-gasped.

———

Wily old navigator (WON) with most of his limbs: “This here is the southern boundary of the Bermuda Triangle.”

Draws a quick, practiced line from Miami to Puerto Rico.

WON: “This here is the northern boundary of the Bermuda Triangle.”

Draws a quick, practiced line from Miami to Bermuda.

Weird silence.

Enthusiastic apprentice navigator (never seen an alligator): “Uh, I get it, I think, but doesn’t a triangle have three sides?”

WON: “How about we save that for the next lesson?A wise man once told me, always leave them wanting more.Teachers also should pay attention.”

EAN: “Oh, okay.”

EAN departs the room, closing the door behind him.

Stunned silence.

Finally, WON breaks the stunned silence with a sharp intake of breath purely for the sake of private drama, then exhales noisily.“Somehow, I’ve got a bad feeling about this voyage.”

What?

Klima's_Bucket

Ca$h-McMoney!: One step further, even if you draft Ekblad, he might not develop quite as quickly because we don’t have a Brian Campbell to mentor him.

*Cough* Andrew Ference *Cough*

New Improved Darkness

Well ain’t that a geographical oddity: here (and only here) you can wake up with severely mixed feelings about a five-point night from the newest Benjamin Button–protagonist of Salvation Story XIII, without so much as sniffing at the glass half empty.

———

This morning a colleague put me onto Eliezer Yudkowsky’s “Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality” (originally under the pen name “Less Wrong”), this being 2000-odd pages of dearly beloved fanfic, appealing in the main (on first scratch) to the scattered sympathizers of the Singularians in Training new world order.

I’m not normally a joiner, but I would myself definitely show up to check out my local chapter of the LessWrong meetup group, should the room of requirements someday barf one up.

But forget about all of that, we’ve got more interesting fish to fry.

———

First we have SingularityWritingAdvice, there being never a document written wherein I find myself in a more violent state of 50% agreement.

One of his maxims (twice fried): “Better strangely terse than sucky.”

That’s surely an odd bedfellow for my meditations of the week. I was thinking precisely of my recent scribblings that some have actually passed right through the tersosity horizon, and become a bad thing, mainly out of guilt.

It used to be that when real life cut some whimsical outpouring short, concision would suffer; that second quick pass being mainly used to excise some fat—leaving some extra junk in the truck if your liposuction wand pumpkins mid-slurp.

Does anyone else recall the joyous childhood moment when you first discovered that the vacuum cleaner hose can also be affixed the other direction? (No twittering in back; we’re talking curious childhood, people, though this does blend into the next stage.)

These days, I more often find myself in pre-shipment passover—in fresh airy exodus from slavery of the ruse—hose-fitting my liposuction pump in reverse. If the damn thing pumpkins mid-stroke (Drums of Moria on line one—I really think you should take this call now), what results is Twiggy Stardust. When it comes to stardust, a little flesh on the bones is a good thing. What distinguishes stardust from space rust is a sufficient coating of butter (the rest of the chemistry being largely the same).

Tip #2: Stay out of your writing

Squeeze me? Like hell.

Tip #5: Be kind

Sometimes I’m an ass. Sometimes I’m—me again—not nice, either. But around these parts—in one of the all-time geographical oddities of the intertubes—the kindred spirit is alive and well. We don’t actually know what it eats. We gather around the gaunt snapping turtle asking ourselves: It does eat, eventually, doesn’t it? Surely it must be getting peckish?

“Food” is regarded as a somewhat mythical substance. Old-timers share stories about the Reagan-era groaning board. Young pups go “Puhleeese, the Reagan era? Are you on drugs?” Yes, children. Back in the Reagan era, there was this Old Woman Who Lived in a Shoe. She didn’t actually have the large family that propaganda now records, but Santa was so abundant—if you hung enough sleigh-bell sequinned socks—people got the wrong idea, and it grew from there.

Tip #9: Don’t invent new words

God help this man revive his funny bone.

Tip #12. Don’t harangue your audience

Does this include or not include coat-hanger origami?

———

But wait, there’s one more filet.

Author’s Note Ch. 98

You know Harry’s non-24 sleep disorder? I have that. Normally my days are around 24 hours and 30 minutes long.

Oh, you lucky fucking bastard. A mere 24.5? You call THAT a disorder?

Try 24 hours and 90 minutes. Put that in your orrery and rotate.

Interestingly, he makes a list of many things he’s previously tried, which I won’t indent. Just close your eyes and imagine.

Taking low-dose melatonin 1-2 hours before bedtime

Check.

Using timed-release melatonin

Check.

Installing red lights (blue light tells your brain not to start making melatonin)

In my case, this was a yellow bug light, which was slow to warm up. Loved that thing. You could make it for a sleepy piss and back without it blowing out your “night” vision.

Using blue-blocking sunglasses after sunset

Thought about it, but I what I did instead was install the software utility Redshift to change my monitor colour palettes to match ambient conditions (this helps mostly to maintain my cure, and is not the cause of it).

Using a sleep mask

Sometimes two, for more flashing.

Watching the sunrise

At that time, we had an optimal room for that—it was called “the sun room”.

Watching the sunset

At fucking 16:00 in December. Oh, I remember it well.

Blocking out all light from the windows in my bedroom using aluminum foil

We found a tarp at Canadian Tired that perfectly matched the outdoor paint. This was a better choice as our bedroom window faced a lovey street. There were additional layers, and a couple of bust-enlargement caliber free-weights to suppress flutter.

then lining the door-edges with foam to prevent light from slipping in the cracks

So he wouldn’t have to use a sleep mask? Seriously? There was an old lady who swallowed a fly … Then she got her ass out of bed and super-glued her lips together.

Spending a total of ~$2200 on three different mattresses

This might sound unrelated, but it isn’t. Any other excuse for not sleeping soundly is a first-class confound. It was my second attempt at a $1000 latex mattress that finally turned the trick.

Taking modafinil and R-modafinil

Oh, yeah, baby. It’s a fun drug until you acquire tolerance to the happy effects. It’s still useful to me when I have to patch over a skid into the ditch.

Buying a gradual-light-intensity-increasing, sun alarm clock for ~$150

Mine is a Phillips GloLite Blue, about the same price, but not in any way gentle—it’s a blue light from hell at the optimal circadian frequency.

Wearing earplugs

We lucked into a nice neighborhood.

Putting 2 humidifiers in my room, a warm humidifier and a cold humidifier

I guess he was worried about that infamous crusty nose-cootie nightmare fuel. We settled for a nice view of the Pacific ocean.

Buying an auto-adjusting CPAP machine for $650 off Craigslist in case I had sleep apnea

Me, I had a lemon tree with sharp elbows. Rarely I had any breathing issues, and we had a pact. Well doh! don’t just lie there steaming with me snorking! Puncture my darn balloon. The literature I’ve seen says nothing good about time spent sleeping, half-gasped.

———

Wily old navigator (WON) with most of his limbs: “This here is the southern boundary of the Bermuda Triangle.”

Draws a quick, practiced line from Miami to Puerto Rico.

WON: “This here is the northern boundary of the Bermuda Triangle.”

Draws a quick, practiced line from Miami to Bermuda.

Weird silence.

Enthusiastic apprentice navigator (never seen an alligator): “Uh, I get it, I think, but doesn’t a triangle have three sides?”

WON: “How about we save that for the next lesson? A wise man once told me, always leave them wanting more. Teachers also should pay attention.”

EAN: “Oh, okay.”

EAN departs the room, closing the door behind him.

Stunned silence.

Finally, WON breaks the stunned silence with a sharp intake of breath purely for the sake of private drama, then exhales noisily.

“Somehow, I’m getting a bad feeling about this voyage.”

sliderule

Snowman,

Chychrun has a body like Doughty and Ekblad in that it is NHL ready.

If you look at the list and even review some of the second selections like OEL and you will see that within two or three years or sooner they were playing at a top level.

This team if you add Hamonic may be a playoff contender but unless you get an elite defender like first pick defenders usually are and which Chychrun projects at you won’t be competing for the cup.

Klima's_Bucket

Pouzar: I will never ever forget his play in the ’90 Cup run. Simply amazing.

Don’t forget Klima’s heroics in game 1 triple OT of the Finals…

Snowman

Professor Q,

The rush is the end of Mcdavid’s ELC. Once that is over big decisions have to be made. In my opinion the best year to win the cup is Mcdavid’s 3rd season. Everyone is matured and still cheap. Need to find a top pairing guy for that window.

I agree its nice to draft and develop guys. This year you can’t. After this year, assuming you get a top 4d this summer, you can and should draft and develop patiently from that point forward.

After Mcdavid’s ELC is up, the music stops and the winning gets a lot trickier. Once he’s making big bucks you’ve got to break up the band.

AsiaOil

Super good G – thought of you but didn’t want to impose. Would be nice to provide a bit more depth to the analysis. Not really an E vs W but good vs bad or structured vs unstructured opposition. Road vs home would be really interesting to see though.

G Money:
frjohnk,
AsiaOil,

I’ll see if I can cobble together a script that contrasts key performance (CF, DFF, pts) of how all the Oilers players do East vs West.

I’ve done that a couple of times now (most recently for Hamonic – who for the record, does just as well, Corsi-wise anyway, against West teams as he does against East teams).

Bruce McCurdy

Professor Q: Although creole is a mixture of old French-Acadian, Spanish, African languages, and Indigenous languages, while Newfoundland/Maritime is more of a mixture of French-Acadian, Scottish, Irish, and Gaelic, etc.

I meant it more in the sense of “a creole” rather than Créole. Just a throwaway line once I realized that “English to English” was a misstatement of what these gentlemen were speaking.

Ca$h-McMoney!

Snowman,

One step further, even if you draft Ekblad, he might not develop quite as quickly because we don’t have a Brian Campbell to mentor him.

Professor Q

Snowman:
sliderule,

A D you draft this year unless it is Ekblad (who is a freak) doesn’t help you really for a couple seasons. I don’t think I hang on to that pick. They need someone to play top 4 now. You hope Nurse continues to develop.

I think Klef is very near a top pairing guy right now (when healthy obviously). You need one more legit top 4 D right now. At least one. They have a good start at a top 4. I don’t believe you’re ever going to get a legit number 1. Klef-Sekera-Davey-Fayne-Hamonic (ideally)- Nurse/Gryba/Reinhart/Whoever else is a playoff D I think.

Chychrun doesn’t help you soon enough.

Why doesn’t he help you soon enoigh?

What’s with the rush? We don’t need to build Team Canada or an All-Star team.

I think that might be over expectations, perhaps?

Connor will get paid on a new deal no matter what.

Bringing in a top defenseman before that by giving up a key piece or drafting and developing (and having current prospects and beyond develop) will not change that.

Or, perhaps do the former to a smaller scale and still do the latter, which covers both aspects for longer-term.

G Money

frjohnk,
AsiaOil,

I’ll see if I can cobble together a script that contrasts key performance (CF, DFF, pts) of how all the Oilers players do East vs West.

I’ve done that a couple of times now (most recently for Hamonic – who for the record, does just as well, Corsi-wise anyway, against West teams as he does against East teams).

Snowman

sliderule,

A D you draft this year unless it is Ekblad (who is a freak) doesn’t help you really for a couple seasons. I don’t think I hang on to that pick. They need someone to play top 4 now. You hope Nurse continues to develop.

I think Klef is very near a top pairing guy right now (when healthy obviously). You need one more legit top 4 D right now. At least one. They have a good start at a top 4. I don’t believe you’re ever going to get a legit number 1. Klef-Sekera-Davey-Fayne-Hamonic (ideally)- Nurse/Gryba/Reinhart/Whoever else is a playoff D I think.

Chychrun doesn’t help you soon enough.

dustrock

sliderule: Lots of talk about trading one of our forwards for a top one defender.Here are the first pick defenders taken since 20082008 Doughty2009 Hedman2010 Gudbranson2011 Larsson2012 Murray2013 Jones2014 Ekblad2015 Hanifin.I think most of the readers of this blog know the team is as built ass backwards drafting forwards when to start a rebuild it should be defenders but it’s too late for that.If you look at that list the only forward that would even get interest in a trade would be Hall and that would only be for Murray or LarssonThe top two defenders in this draft are Chychrun and Juolevi..Chychrun has been compared to Ekblad I know he didn’t make the wj team but he had surgery in the summer and it set back his training.In the prospect game on ice testing he finished second overall.Connor finished first overall last year and a defenceman who can perform at that level is impressive.The past eight drafts have produced a first pick defender who we either wouldn’t be able to get or in the case of a couple would require giving up Hall.Chia should keep his powder dry with Ebs and Hall and draft Chychrun a defender who could end up better than Ekblad.

The problem is that the clock is ticking on the McDavid ELC and we have a fanbase who cannot wait for a top defenceman to develop properly.

Professor Q

Pajamah: It’s funny how you call it creole, because that was the closest accent I could put it to as well, but I think even Baymen are even less intelligible. I can follow drawl, but when “where’s ya to?” turns into “wayatah” I just shake my head.

Although creole is a mixture of old French-Acadian, Spanish, African languages, and Indigenous languages, while Newfoundland/Maritime is more of a mixture of French-Acadian, Scottish, Irish, and Gaelic, etc.

Professor Q

What does a wrestler-turned actor have to do with the Oilers?

I don’t get it…

Pajamah

Bruce McCurdy: I am a Newfoundlander myself, a “townie” from St. John’s. The “baymen” from the outports spoke various permutations of the lingo with even stronger accents.

One time at an astronomical convention I effectively acted as an English-to-English interpreter in an exchange between a “bayman” and a Louisianan. (Maybe better described as creole-to-creole) They literally could not understand one another, although I was able to follow both, at least to a degree. So I would paraphrase what each had said and the other would be able to understand ME (at least to a a degree!).

Very funny situation, I have never forgotten it.

It’s funny how you call it creole, because that was the closest accent I could put it to as well, but I think even Baymen are even less intelligible. I can follow drawl, but when “where’s ya to?” turns into “wayatah” I just shake my head.