SUPPLY AND DEMAND

by Lowetide

When it comes to estimating approximate trade value for defensemen, there is an enormous deadline kicker. An NHL team looking to go deep into the playoffs must plan to overcome significant injuries at the position. Remember the Buffalo Sabres in 2006? They were running out AHL guys in the semi’s because that is all they had left by that point in the year.

Into that scenario we add a weird year in which the sellers are few and the buyers are double. It is a perfect storm for a team with extra blue—and Edmonton has three bags full (Schultz, Gryba, Fayne) by my estimate. We are reaching a point where the reporting media is finding the range on the available pieces and the richness at defense simply does not exist:

  • Mark Lazerus, Chicago Sun-Times: The smart move would be to get a winger. Seemingly half the league is in the market for a defenseman, and the price could be too high for the Hawks to compete for the likes of Vancouver’s Dan Hamhuis, Edmonton’s Justin Schultz, or Calgary’s Kris Russell. Source.

I am thinking the price is a third-round pick, and folks that is not high—many players fetch greater in a more typical year. Here are some unusual trade deadline deals that raised (my) eyebrows (it is a unibrow) from last season:

  • Anaheim traded D Ben Lovejoy to Pittsburgh for D Simon Despres. Exhibit A in terms of weird return for veteran defenders. The Penguins knew and liked Lovejoy, perhaps offering insight into Mark Fayne’s possible destination. The deal was a wash financially, with Lovejoy having one year left on his deal at $1.1 million and Simon Despres with another year at $900,000.
  • St. Louis trades D Ian Cole to Pittsburgh for D Robert Bortuzzo and 2016 seventh-round pick. I didn’t like this trade for Bortuzzo and his numbers this year (27, 1-0-1 12:43 TOI) reflect his status as an end-of-the-roster type. Cole (45, 0-4-4 17:54) has played a greater role and I like his future far more.
  • Edmonton trades D Jeff Petry to the Montreal Canadiens for a second-round pick (Jonas Siegenthaler) and a fourth-round pick (Caleb Jones). When you are trading a bona fide top 4D this isn’t enough, but it happened and I am listing it to show the wide range of values at the deadline. No disrespect to the picks, but Simon Despres would have been a far more useful return.

In each case, I was flummoxed. Despres, Cole and (especially) Petry should have fetched more (well, Petry should have been signed) for the teams dealing them. The deadline does some crazy things, and with three defenders in play (I believe that to be the case) we will see how this shakes down.

TRADE DEADLINE BLUE

trade deadline blue

This is sorted by CorsiRel (I am old fashioned, this is the best metric for me) and shows all three man as having some value to an NHL team. Gryba is a depth guy, but if Matt Greene can play in the postseason then the big man can, too. Fayne is a guy who doesn’t deliver a lot with the puck on his stick, but for me he is an extremely useful defenseman. I hope Edmonton keeps him, but cannot imagine an NHL scout failing to write something home about No. 5 and his effectiveness. The contract (two years remaining) is a hurdle, but the Oilers waived him early in the season and maybe they are willing to retain cap for those two years.

And that brings us to Justin Schultz. His 5×5/60 number this season is poor, would have been better to deal him last year (0.77) or in 2013-14 (0.89). No NHL team can compress trade value like the Oilers, and Schultz is the latest and a spectacular example.

One major item we cannot factor into this deadline: The impact of lack of supply. For Lazerus to be mentioning Schultz this late in the process may be a tell. Two weeks to go, pray the pack stays close to the playoffs and the Oilers head into February 29 with three trade chips from the blue.

  • Note: I would not trade Fayne. He is one of the four best defensemen on the team, and I suspect the same will be true in October 2016.
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Melman

Great post LT – I had a good chuckle at CorsiRel beng “old-fashioned”!

it’ll be interesting to see where the players go and potential returns. I wonder with Hossa’s injury if Chi has any eyes on Purcell. $ retained might bump the rerun up a round.

rickithebear

2nd pair d in EC.
3rd pair on Conf finalist in west.

HT Joe

If Fayne is still one of the top-4 blue liners on the Oilers in October 2016, then the Oilers’s playoff drought will likely extend into the new building.

From what I’ve seen this year, Sekera, Klefbom and Davidson are all better than Fayne right now (YMMV but I think this is pretty fair). If Fayne is still number 4 in the batting order, then Chia will have failed at bringing in one more competent top-4 D. That will not only lead to another difficult season, but that will be a big damn down arrow for Chia.

zatch

I see Gryba netting far more than one would expect. Guys like him always seem overvalued and I’m sure someone will want him for their bottom pair. 3rd straight up? 4th and a 7th?

fifthcartel

Listening to Rishaug this morning saying he thinks they’ll try and re-sign Gryba worries me.

Ideally you want Davidson-Nurse on the third-pairing next year (or Nurse-Davidson) but adding Gryba back to next year’s defense leaves a lot of defense ‘set’ to return, which makes me think they’ll retain on Fayne or trade him for a forward with a bad contract.

slopitch

The Oilers need D who make better decisions with the puck. You CANNOT mix forwards who aren’t very good at puck retrieval with dmen who aren’t very good at making a pass.

I think one of Gryba or Fayne need to go for next year. Id dump Fayne and keep Gryba personally. And Id chose not to resign Schultz so if you can get value for him, do it. They have all but grenaded any value he had this year.

For next year Id go

1) find this guy
2) Klefbom
3) Sekera
4) Nurse
5) Davidson
6/7) Reinhart/Gryba

And I would have Nuge, Eberle, Yak and the lottery pick in play to make it happen. Obviously you prefer to keep the Nuge but I’m not willing to piss away another year of McDavid’s ELC.

kinger_OIL

– Great post LT, but I’m confused: “When it comes to estimating approximate trade value for defensemen, there is an enormous deadline kicker”

– Then LT says: “In each case, I was flummoxed. Despres, Cole and (especially) Petry should have fetched more (well, Petry should have been signed) for the teams dealing them”

– So is the deadline a good time in terms of trading if you are the team that is rebuilding, or is it a good time for teams that can get assets for relatively low value?

– Based on nuthin’, I assumed that teams on rebuilds get relative good value in terms of draft picks for trading players to teams who want to win, because there are more teams trying to win than lose at trade deadline, so there is a premium based on the competition for a small-set of players

kinger_OIL

slopitch,

– This team isn’t a playoff team next year if you have Nurse (or Davidson) pencilled in, and counted on as your #4, unless your #1 is a true #1D stud @ 28mins/gm, and we aren’t going to get one..

– On a playoff team, 2 of Nurse/Griff/Davidson need to be 5/6/7, ideally partnered with a vet > Fayne, combined with some specific time in the minors, as all three are still on their ELC

Mr DeBakey

slopitch: 1) find this guy
2) Klefbom
3) Sekera
4) Nurse
5) Davidson
6/7) Reinhart/Gryba

Do you have Nurse ahead of Davidson and Gryba?
He’s not you know.
He’s an AHLer.
Reinhart too.
The Oilers need better than that if they don’t want to piss away another year of McDavid’s ELC.

kinger_OIL

Lowetide,

– I get it: don’t pursue at deadline if you want value, and don’t be dumb. Teams desperate to get better at deadline can’t help themselves but “persue”. So Oil: find teams who want to persue you!

Woogie63

small, tiny point …. Shultz, Fayne and Gryba are much better than anyone we have to replace them with.

a 3rd, 4th or 5th rounder will would be very cold comfort next Family Day, if the team is not better.

Bruce McCurdy

fifthcartel:
Listening to Rishaug this morning saying he thinks they’ll try and re-sign Gryba worries me.

Ideally you want Davidson-Nurse on the third-pairing next year (or Nurse-Davidson) but adding Gryba back to next year’s defense leaves a lot of defense ‘set’ to return, which makes me think they’ll retain on Fayne or trade him for a forward with a bad contract.

i fully expect the Oilers to sign Gryba or a Gryba-type. Chiarelli identified heavy / heavy-on-their-stick type players as a priority right off the hop, & one of his first moves was the exchange of Marincin for Gryba which seemed to be exactly on point. Some would say the Oilers gave up a better d-man that they got, but Chia obviously thought otherwise. Judging from usage McLellan is happy with him & is leaning on him more & more as the season wears on.

We have no idea of the state of negotiations & whether Gryba is looking for McQuaid money or term for that matter. I would think the time for such negotiations is now, & that an extension will either happen before the deadline or he will be dealt. I recall rumours that Oilers were interested in signing McQuaid just before the draft, Boston panicked & locked him up so Chia dealt for Gryba the next day. One things for sure I’d rather have Eric Gryba at $1.25 MM than Adam McQuaid at $2.75 (times 4).

I for one am not going to lose a lot of sleep over it either way. I do like the player more than most on this board seem to, but he’s not exactly irreplaceable. I do think he would be harder to replace than some might suppose, however, & for certain that Chia would *want* a replacement of similar type. I suspect his idea of “heavy” is “man-strength, hair-on-his-ass heavy”, not a role that Nurse is quite ready to fill just yet.

Mr DeBakey

kinger_OIL: Nurse/Griff/Davidson need to be 5/6/7, ideally partnered with a vet > Fayne, combined with some specific time in the minors, as all three are still on their ELC

Not arguing with your point, but Davidson would have to pass through waivers.

TNT

If MacTavish was the GM of another team, does anyone think he would try to acquire Justin Shultz?

Klima's_Bucket

Bruce McCurdy: We have no idea of the state of negotiations & whether Gryba is looking for McQuaid money or term for that matter.

I talked with Gryba over Christmas.
At that point the Oilers and him had not had any type of negotiation whatsoever.

Ryan

Where are we at with Goligoski?

There’s not many available UFA options to improve the blue.

kinger_OIL

Mr DeBakey,

I thought he was still waiver exempt: 2 out of 3 ain’t bad!

square_wheels

Ryan,

He’s 30, posted solid offensive numbers on a high power O team and has been healthy the past few years……smells like an huge overpay coming for what is essentially a PP specialist.

And he’s small, he’s a poor man’s Lubo.

Might be better off with one year of Campbell IMHO.

Bruce McCurdy

Klima’s_Bucket: I talked with Gryba over Christmas.
At that point the Oilers and him have not had any type of negotiation whatsoever.

That figures, the first chunk of the season was “show me” time. The window for negotiation is essentially February. I’d be surprised if they haven’t talked by now.

DRFNsuperstar

Ryan:
Where are we at with Goligoski?

There’s not many available UFA options to improve the blue.

The list of 3-4 guys is actually pretty good:

Demers
Gologoski
Yandle
Coburn
Hamhuis
Gunnarsson
Russell

An impact guy who will still be useful in the good years is either Demers or a trade. I’d be trading for one and if you can get Demers too then you’re double set until “The Signing” I really do think this cap crunch is going to provide us with one of the RFA righty shot D (Vatanen, Trouba) I would bet they would take a Hamilton type offer or Reinhart+

square_wheels

DRFNsuperstar,

The only 3/4 guys on that list are Goligoski, Demers and Hamhuis for a couple years. The rest have big holes in important parts of their games.

Ryan

square_wheels:
Ryan,

He’s 30, posted solid offensive numbers on a high power O team and has been healthy the past few years……smells like an huge overpay coming for what is essentially a PP specialist.

And he’s small, he’s a poor man’s Lubo.

Might be better off with one year of Campbell IMHO.

I think you’re significantly underestimating Goligoski.

If you’re going to start the argument against him with the fact that he’s 30, you’re not going to be shopping in the free agent bin at the supermarket. 🙂

He’s 10th in the NHL in even strength toi/60 amoung all defensemen this season.

He’s scoring 0.95 points per hour at 5v5 which is around 44th in the NHL.

He’s got a right hand shot.

Klingberg is probably zooming him a bit…

Really though, there’s not much out there.

Klima's_Bucket

Ryan: He’s got a right hand shot.

Woodguy and I went over this recently.

Goligoski is a left shot.

Don’t believe everything you see at hockeydb.com

New Improved Darkness

My first guess would be that Chia’s entire year-end strategy on defensive supplementation would run through our woeful PP.

A fixed point in the rhetoric as we dumped Eakins and moved forward was that a barrel full of drunk monkeys could improve our PP over what we had then. So far as I can see, this has not transpired, not even for those games where our PP was blessed with CMD.

What Eakins and TMac yet share in their joint world-of-PP-hurt is the woeful blueline.

leadfarmer

square_wheels:
Ryan,

He’s 30, posted solid offensive numbers on a high power O team and has been healthy the past few years……smells like an huge overpay coming for what is essentially a PP specialist.

And he’s small, he’s a poor man’s Lubo.

Might be better off with one year of Campbell IMHO.

You do know that poor mans Lubo has a big blue bubble in the top left corner of the sledgehammer for years and is the only top pairing d man that you can just get for only money. The only reason you don’t go after him is if he’s got 29 other trucks full of cash waiting for him at his house. His only downside is he picked up a cricket bat before playing water polo or something of the sorts

DRFNsuperstar

Ryan: I think you’re significantly underestimating Goligoski.

If you’re going to start the argument against him with the fact that he’s 30, you’re not going to be shopping in the free agent bin at the supermarket.

He’s 10th in the NHL in even strength toi/60 amoung all defensemen this season.

He’s scoring 0.95 points per hour at 5v5 which is around 44th in the NHL.

He’s got a right hand shot.

Really though, there’s not much out there.

Everything is true, except he is a left shot. He would be a decent pick up if it’s less than Sekera in term and AAV

MrEd

From Scott Zerr at The Nation:

“The only other two players who deserve to have a look or two are David Musil and Kale Kessy.

Musil lacks footspeed, that’s no secret. But he is rugged and a gamer, much more so than Reinhart. He’s got some offence in his game with a heavy shot and a willingness to join the rush when able to do so. Musil has had a cup coffee before and there’s no reason he shouldn’t get a thermos of it by April.

Kessy’s shot would be a gesture if nothing else, a signal to the rest of the prospects that if you show up every night and go above and beyond when called upon, then you will get a chance.”

I’m in.

Give Nurce a break and see if Korp will clear.

square_wheels

Ryan,

No I’m fine with him being 30, but you have to look at who he’s passing the puck to on most nights to weight that EV PPG.

Solid player, just don’t think he moves the dial enough for what he will command in FA. If were unsure as to whether we have a PP QB ready internally (hint – we don’t), then sign Campbell for one year.

I’d sign Demers before him but don’t think Tmac was a huge fan considering they traded him for a gritensicle player.

I took a close look at Goligoski at WOI, he’s a pure O dman that has minimal ability to battle and retrieve lost possession but he skates/passes well. He’d be what we wanted from Schultz but I wouldn’t pay above 5.5M/yr.

Zelepukin

Mr DeBakey: Do you have Nurse ahead of Davidson and Gryba?
He’s not you know.
He’s an AHLer.
Reinhart too.
The Oilers need better than that if they don’t want to piss away another year of McDavid’s ELC.

Exactly. How many games do people need to watch before they understand that Davidson is our best D-man next to Klef and Sekera? Seriously.

Ryan

DRFNsuperstar,

Yeah, Jason Demers would also be a nice add.

Ryan

Klima's_Bucket: Woodguy and I went over this recently.

Goligoski is a left shot.

Don’t believe everything you see at hockeydb.com

My bad, thanks.

square_wheels

leadfarmer,

I like him, don’t misread that. But he struggles to retrieve the puck if the team loses it. He’s not big, Lubo was about 20lbs heavier and could battle, hence the poor mans Lubo comment.

Goligoski needs to be studied closely, his partner and his top 6 forwards could make his offence and big blue bubble a touch misleading. Pay him in the 5M range and you’ve got 10 other teams he could choose from including the one he’s posting elite #’s with.

If I’m overpaying for a high offence Dman, if prefer Brent Burns.

Patience in the flat cap next 2 years means we have to aiming higher.

DRFNsuperstar

square_wheels:
DRFNsuperstar,

The only 3/4 guys on that list are Goligoski, Demers and Hamhuis for a couple years. The rest have big holes in important parts of their games.

Goligoski and Demers are balanced 3’s, Coburn is a legitimate shut down D and Yandle is a legit offensive power play specialist they would probably be a pretty solid second pairing together. You’re right Hamhuis is a balanced #4 for two more years. Gunnarsson and *spits* Russell were throw in 4/5’s

square_wheels

Zelepukin,

Couldn’t agree more, he’s got the one thing you can’t teach a Dman.

Calm head, solid tools and that extra Mississippi of patience you just can’t teach.

He’s beyond found money, magnificent bastard will never pay for beers in any bar I see him in.

Pouzar

Zelepukin: Exactly. How many games do people need to watch before they understand that Davidson is our best D-man next to Klef and Sekera? Seriously.

Took me 1 exhibition game live view to see he had the goods! 😛

Ryan

leadfarmer: You do know that poor mans Lubo has a big blue bubble in the top left corner of the sledgehammer for years and is the only top pairing d man that you can just get for only money.The only reason you don’t go after him is if he’s got 29 other trucks full of cash waiting for him at his house.His only downside is he picked up a cricket bat before playing water polo or something of the sorts

Yes, this.

Goligoski plays big minutes and the toughest available competition and has done so for years.

For the past 8 seasons, you can basically set your watch based upon Goligoski putting up 1 point per hour at evens.

leadfarmer

square_wheels,

He’s only had one season ever in the negative high danger scoring chance battle at that was a negative one four years ago. He’s been legit before Seguin got there. Dallas’ issue was before this season they had him and scrubs on D for years on top of poor goaltending. They got him help this year finally.

square_wheels

DRFNsuperstar,

But none of them add much of what we need except Goligoski (will get too much), Yandle ( who is useless other than PP, seriously he’s Schultz with a good shot).

Demer’s I need to look closer at, he is solid but unspectacular offensively but there must be warts for a team like SJ to flip him for a Gryba type. The Sharks don’t make too many deals like this.

The rest are all meh, better than Gryba, Schultz but not replacing Davidson, Sekera or Klef in the top 4.

UFA’s are in for a rude awakening this year with the cap holding at this years #.

leadfarmer

Lol at people saying Gogo is a number 3/4. He is a top pairing dman in this league and maybe at the bottom of the #1 d pile. You can say not another lefty, or he will cost a lot, but the guy is legit.

Zelepukin

square_wheels:
Zelepukin,

Couldn’t agree more, he’s got the one thing you can’t teach a Dman.

Calm head, solid tools and that extra Mississippi of patience you just can’t teach.

He’s beyond found money, magnificent bastard will never pay for beers in any bar I see him in.

Almost every time the play is around him or when he has the puck, there is a split second where years of incompetence on the backend has you expecting him to do something stupid like overcommit, rifle the puck away without looking but then you realise it’s Davidson and he keeps a level head and more often than not, makes the right, patient decision.

square_wheels

Ryan,

leadfarmer:
square_wheels,

He’s only had one season ever in the negative high danger scoring chance battle at that was a negative one four years ago.He’s been legit before Seguin got there.Dallas’ issue was before this season they had him and scrubs on D for years on top of poor goaltending.They got him help this year finally.

Yes, agree his EV are solid and he’s always been able to keep up with high end offensive players ( such as Crosby and Malkin).

I’ve advocated for him as a legitimate top 4 LD, the trouble is he’d have to play ahead of Sekera and Klef which I just don’t see happening from a Cap perspective.

leadfarmer

DRFNsuperstar,

You don’t just stay away from Yandle. You run away. Whoever signs that guy is going to absolutely regret it.

square_wheels

leadfarmer,

Yes, he’s very legit. Just need to weigh his offence carefully when you pay him expecting he can deliver it as a top pair and without top 6 forwards that don’t feature Seguin/Benn and Crosby/Malkin.

Before I’d pay him 7M I’d do some homework. A month ago I compared him to Buff and Burns as they have similar offensive fancies, but His takeaway’s are an issue…..he struggles to remove players from the puck.

Someone will pay him, I just don’t think he’s the guy we should target.

square_wheels

Zelepukin,

I refer to it as the 1 extra Mississippi, elite D all have it. Same as elite NFL QB’s, it’s just in the DNA.

The key is just how much does his agent squeeze Chia for ? This is the player some other team is quietly hoping he gets into a tough negotiation with Chia or worse, makes him an offer sheet and fucks our cap.

If he was on 29 other teams I’d be offer-sheeting him.

DRFNsuperstar

I still think Dallas will be able to sign both Demers and Goligoski (should have before the season) because Klinberg and Seguin are on such beautiful deals…but it will be close, almost 11 mil in goalies, Eakin new deal kicks in next year (almost 4), and Benn will sign his new one to be the highest paid player in the game (I would say 14 mil over 8 years).

Ryan

leadfarmer:
DRFNsuperstar,

You don’t just stay away from Yandle.You run away.Whoever signs that guy is going to absolutely regret it.

Stop it. I’m agreeing with you too much.

Yandle is a better version of Jultz and we don’t need another 3rd pairing dman who needs shelter let alone a very expensive one.

square_wheels

DRFNsuperstar,

I could see Goligoski getting Buff $$ from someone based on his offence, but it damn well better not be the Oilers.

DRFNsuperstar

square_wheels:
DRFNsuperstar,

I could see Goligoski getting Buff $$ from someone based on his offence, but it damn well better not be the Oilers.

I’d bet on Buffalo doing it. They’d then have:

Goligoski-Risto
Gorges-Bogosian
McCabe-Franson
Pysyk