HEY 19, NO WE CAN’T DANCE TOGETHER

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers lost another game last night, this time 4-1 to the Ottawa Senators. Coach Todd McLellan did not enjoy the performance, and let fire with some righteous verbal in the post-game avail. If we made a list of coaches who lost their employment and part of their reputation while drawing a cheque from Edmonton since 2012, you would run out of fingers and need to start in on the toes.

https://twitter.com/Sun_Tychkowski/status/702356045943799808

FANNY BE TENDER, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
  • Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
  • Oilers in December 2014: 2-8-4
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1
  • Oilers in January 2015: 5-7-1
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2
  • Oilers in February 2015: 5-6-1
  • Oilers in February 2016: 3-7-1
  • Oilers after 61 in 2014-15: 17-34-10, 44 points (-66 GD)
  • Oilers after 61 in 2015-16: 22-33-6, 50 points (-36 GD)

Todd McLellan was extremely frustrated (some quotes below, but the entire post-game is golden), but today I want to take a quick trip into the past—in order to inform the future. We are over 60 games into the NHL season and I think we can reach a major conclusion: Todd McLellan is going to play the style he prefers, and by next season we should see a team that represents his style. The Oilers, as they are currently compiled, are not an ideal McLellan team—and he hasn’t altered his ‘place and chase’ style—to suit this team’s skills—as much as we might have hoped in year one. I think this means an airlift of role players prepared to place and chase, forecheck, cover and battle—at the cost of skill.

https://twitter.com/Sun_Tychkowski/status/702355136161587200

What would that look like? Last summer, long before the season, I spoke to Derek from the fantastic blog Fear the Fin. He was very informative about style of play—and I think the quote is even more important now that we have seen McLellan as coach for 60 games:

  • On McLellan and his forwards/style: “He plays a bit of a conservative system in the neutral zone, there’s a lot of dump and chase hockey but it works unlike your average dump and chase team—because they play a very aggressive forecheck. It’s the two-on-two offensive forecheck the Kings and the Blues have had a lot of success with. The defenseman on the strong side will pinch to keep the puck in the zone and the extra forward (high forward) will cycle back to cover him on the point.”
  • Source

I think we (and McLellan) have reached the point where it is fairly obvious that some of his current players are unable to adapt. McLellan’s comments last night came out of frustration, but if he and Peter Chiarelli are on the same page, that frustration will find its way to the players soon, in the way of new addresses. I think we are going to see several players who fit the style described above added in the next several months. Along with the heavy comments from Chiarelli, the die is cast.

If I may pause a moment longer, a lot of McLellan’s frustration could have been predicted based on the quotes from last spring:

  • Peter Chiarelli on Justin Schultz: “He’s a player that I don’t have really strong knowledge of. Saw him in college. Saw him in the lockout in the American League. Saw him in bits and pieces with Edmonton, maybe a little more this past year, whether it’s video or otherwise. He’s got a lot of assets, like puck skills, passing, skating. He’s been labelled sometimes as a rover and that’s more negative than positive in my mind, but the fact that he’s up the ice with the forwards is a good thing. That’s something that we would preach here. It’s about defending, about being the proper position and if you’re not strong enough to defend, let’s talk about positional defending, stick defending. He has to get better at that.” Source

It’s been years we’ve been here. How many coaches will it take? How many GMs are going to sentence their head coach to this? If you are an NHL coach, and your GM is thinking about trading for Justin Schultz, what does that tell you about how your GM feels about you?

The line above that I have underlined should read like this: His skill set is normally associated with a lot of assets, like puck skills, passing, skating. Despite being a player who has skills similar to successful puck movers, his lack of attention to detail and incredible lack of urgency often mean inertia in the most important moments of a game.

The lingering memory of the Justin Schultz era—for me—is the list of successful coaches he brought to their knees. In a way, it is damned impressive. In another, it is galling to the highest power. They sent Jeff Petry away, you know, partly because of their belief in Justin Schultz. In life, there are hits, and there are misses. Several days travel after ‘misses’ comes the guy who decided to flush Petry and retain Schultz. The mind literally boggles.

This is the thinking of a coach about to go on the road, where he knows his 23 will be wearing their collective ass for a hat.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

oilers blue nov 30

  • Nurse—Fayne did well in possession, I thought Nurse showed both his mobility (took off several times and headed north) while also proving he needs to pass the puck more on those sorties, and allowing the puck to do the work. Fantastic talent, needs some time, and I do not believe he should be used on the penalty kill. Fayne needed to clear the puck away on the second goal (on the PK, it has to be cleared there), but he was solid overall.
  • Sekera—Schultz were not effective. Schultz was -3, but the play that pissed off all the grey hairs, blue hairs and other hairs, was the third goal. It was a typical 19 play, the puck required a little more effort to get, and the two-on-one could have been avoided if he had recognized the situation sooner. Sekera, for my money the best defenseman on the team, was unable to handle the volume forecheck with 19 as partner.
  • McLellan on Schultz: “He had a pretty disappointing night as an individual, and it affected the team.”
  • Davidson—Oesterle looked quite good to my eye. Davidson was splendid on the goal, all kinds of smarts on the Eberle tally, and he managed the puck very well overall. I noticed the two rookies talking a lot together, good to see communication. Oesterle had a tough break on the third goal, sent a pass that was just past Schultz and it ended up in the back of the net. Damnable goal, that one.

NHL: NHL Draft

  • TODD MCLELLAN: “We’ll see what happens over the next six or seven days. Maybe there are some guys waiting for that. It’s got to get better or we need to make huge, huge changes.”

The fans are booing Schultz now, his confidence is low. We are in full death rattle in regard to Schultz’s time as an Oiler, best to send him away—today. I hate watching home players get traded, and from Coffey to Poti to now, it is always the skilled defensemen. We love our offense in this city, but Oilers fans in my section (thanks to WG for the tickets, best seats in the damned house) were more impressed by Jason Smith last night. That’s Oilers fans in a nutshell, right there.

mcdavid eberle

INDIVIDUAL HIGH-DANGER SCORING CHANCES

  1. Three: Connor McDavid, Benoit Pouliot
  2. Two: Jordan Eberle
  3. One: Teddy Purcell, Andrej Sekera, Iiro Pakarinen, Nail Yakupov, Leon Draisaitl

CENTERS, LAST NIGHT

oil c nov 30

  • Connor McDavid and his trio had a good run to my eye, watching this young man skate is a pure joy. The puck was bouncing (ice is terrible, just ghastly) but he hammered opponents during the game. Unlucky to have just the one point in my opinion.
  • Mark Letestu has this play custom made for him on the power play, and it is a beauty. High slot, defenseman sends him a strong pass, and he tips it. Dangerous damn play, but he appears unable to cash it.
  • Leon Draisaitl is probably going back to the wing when Nuge gets back, the big man is having a tough time as the season wears down. He has not been himself since the road trip, suspect there are some slight injuries that have him down. That burst is gone, hope it returns in fall.
  • Matt Hendricks needs to go back to the wing. Oilers are making a lot of unforced errors, this is one. Anton Lander needs to draw back in.

WINGERS, LAST NIGHT

oilers f nov 30

  • Pouliot—Eberle had strong evenings to my eye, especially Pouliot who would have scored but the damn puck bounced (bad, bad ice) just as he was about to make his move. As it was, he got a dangerous chance on the play. Eberle scored the goal, was exposed in coverage but was dandy with the puck on his stick. That is Eberle the player in a sentence.
  • Hall—Purcell were not as effective as they were the other night, the line needs a makeover. I think the right play is to replace Leon, but the step down from the German to Letestu is a lulu.
  • Yakupov—Kassian tried mightily, but could not impact the game. I would love to see a Derek Roy airlift for the final 20 games, these two could be something if they had more skill at pivot.
  • Korpikoski—Pakarinen are all lost in the supermarket, they can no longer shop happily. Bring on the empty horses.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

In the short term, the Oilers pulling the chute (they did it on the road trip, but it came home to roost) is an annual item, with only Todd McLellan’s being new making this an issue. I am glad he spoke up, because the Peter Chiarelli avail earlier in the day seemed too calm for the season that was just lost. Among the quotes last night was a kid who was 19 saying it might be better to go on the road, and that is the main issue as far as I am concerned.

One of the major problems with this organization has been constant change. I do not think Todd McLellan has performed perfectly this season, but do believe he is vitally important to the process we can safely call crawling from the wreckage. I doubt we will agree on all of the names heading out, nor those heading in (lots of chatter that two defensemen are needed this summer, but the Oilers haven’t had four men on the blue you can count on opening night since 2006).

Heading out will be names like Justin Schultz, Teddy Purcell, maybe Matt Hendricks. Coming in? We wait, but the general idea is Hamonics and Boyles and Lucicis. If not those exact names, then similar in style and intent.

blood4

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fluid show, beginning with Bruce McCurdy at the Cult of Hockey and Sean Bissell, Campus Director of Hockey Operations for Donnan Hockey. Hour two will have one guest to talk Oilers and one to talk Habs, waiting to confirm. Stay tuned! 10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter.

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Generational Poster

frjohnk: Yeah those picks are gambles. We could have kept them and picked Plante and Moroz 2.0 and instead of smashing my head on the table once a day, I’d probably do it twice. But they could have Tarasenko and Saad 2.0 as well. I’m just pointing out the extremes as they are gambles.

But The thing is, at draft day, those picks have incredible value. 9th overall in 13 landed a stud goalie. Hamilton cost was basically those picks plus a high 2nd rounder. Heck one year of Johnny Boychuk cost two 2nd rounders.

Chia paid two first rounders ( I say this cuz it was a deep draft) for a guy one year later may not be a top 6 option on one of the worst blue lines in the league. The value Chia paid should have returned more than what we are getting right now.

Why this bugs me is that the hole that the return of those picks was supposed to fill is still there and that hole will be there next year. Now because our prospect pool is incredibly shallow and Reinhart alone can’t do it,the cost to fill that hole is probably going to be one of Hall, RNH or EBERLE. And probably one more of those guys to fill another hole on the backend.

Am I sounding like Vermite yet?

I think this is bang on…Nothing wrong with trading 16&33, but you better be right about the “sure thing” you are getting in return in exchange for the potential upside you are giving up. I swear on draft day for a fleeting second I thought it was 16&33 for Hamonic.

Big Dan

Caramel Batman: I don’t know much about Chris Joseph’s hockey career.But I have met him, and he is an extremely nice guy and he’s great with kids, so I think this comparison is a little unfair.

I am sure Schultz is a nice guy too. Like Joseph, the oilers waited years for him to turn into nothing.

I’m just talking quality of career. Schultz is at about Joseph’s level of quality. Yet he’s way overpaid and overplayed. And it’s because he is lazy.

Good riddance!

G Money

stevezie,
frjohnk,

I accept the “opportunity cost was too high” argument.

The “cost was too high” argument is bogus, as the price paid is unknown, and likely low based on actual probabilities of turning into actual NHL players.

I am, nonetheless, deeply hurt by Stevezie’s betrayal.

Zelepukin

unca miltie:
I have always wanted to say this about Justin Schultz. I feel sorry for the kid. Likely all his life he was the best skater and could play at the top level of his age group. Went to college and same thing. Got lots of money, yes, made some friends and now getting roasted because he has never learned how to play defence. I truly wish him well where ever he goes. He does have lots of ability and I truly hope some one can at least make him into a Keith Handle, type.

He’ll probably spend 4 great years in Europe, grow a beard or two and spend his thirties playing effective 3rd pairing minutes for Detroit.

frjohnk

G Money:
frjohnk,

I would not connect those two.

The only way two picks get you a proven NHL d man is if that d man has major warts (expiring contract, long term albatross contract, age, something).You’re not getting e.g. Hamonic, Shattenkirk, Vatanen, or anyone comparable for those two picks.

Reinhart not already being Top 4 means the bet didn’t work out, but the equivalency is the reverse.

If he had proven to be Top 4 this year, that would have been a huge win.Multiplied value in return.

(People on this board as a general rule WAY overvalue picks; those two picks have, what, a combined 40% chance of getting a single NHL player?)

Yeah those picks are gambles. We could have kept them and picked Plante and Moroz 2.0 and instead of smashing my head on the table once a day, I’d probably do it twice. But they could have Tarasenko and Saad 2.0 as well. I’m just pointing out the extremes as they are gambles.

But The thing is, at draft day, those picks have incredible value. 9th overall in 13 landed a stud goalie. Hamilton cost was basically those picks plus a high 2nd rounder. Heck one year of Johnny Boychuk cost two 2nd rounders.

Chia paid two first rounders ( I say this cuz it was a deep draft) for a guy one year later may not be a top 6 option on one of the worst blue lines in the league. The value Chia paid should have returned more than what we are getting right now.

Why this bugs me is that the hole that the return of those picks was supposed to fill is still there and that hole will be there next year. Now because our prospect pool is incredibly shallow and Reinhart alone can’t do it, the cost to fill that hole is probably going to be one of Hall, RNH or EBERLE. And probably one more of those guys to fill another hole on the backend.

Am I sounding like Vermite yet?

unca miltie

I have always wanted to say this about Justin Schultz. I feel sorry for the kid. Likely all his life he was the best skater and could play at the top level of his age group. Went to college and same thing. Got lots of money, yes, made some friends and now getting roasted because he has never learned how to play defence. I truly wish him well where ever he goes. He does have lots of ability and I truly hope some one can at least make him into a Keith Handle, type.

New Improved Darkness

Staples has a piece today on the Nine Needfully Numbered, where he points out it’s not exactly a slam dunk on the revered/reviled year-over-year coaching upgrade.

Gift the new man CMD, half a season of Drai-nova, and a goalie who eventually settles into the number one job almost like he belongs there, still pretty much the same old results.

Sure there have been injuries, but apples to apples.

———

Naive observer, training camp 2014, takes a quick orientation glance at the depth chart.

“That’s a total bummer! Two veteran centers coming out of training camp on LTIR. What, did they collide or something?”

Eakins [chewing a long stem of grass]: “Nope.”

“Then what? Separate incidents?”

“Nope.”

“Ohhh! Nuge isn’t your first line center! That makes total sense.”

“Nope.”

“You mean all you lost in training camp was just a second line center?”

“Nope.”

“Whaaaat? The guy who went down comes after Arcobello?”

“Nope.”

“Okay … you’re just shitting me, aren’t you? You actually lost three centers in training camp, two useful guys and some guy you were going to send back down anyway. Ha ha ha! You really had me going there.”

“Nope.”

“Oh come on! This depth chart would maybe look good on the morning of Gettysburg, day three.”

Long pause.

“All right, I’ll give you that.”

“So days one and two must have been real humdingers?”

“Nope.”

stevezie

Gerta Rauss: *edit* I finally watched The Life Aquatic the other day.I hung in there because of Bill Murray. I didn’t dislike it, it was just…odd.

It’s not for everyone, and not just because of Anderson’s aesthetics. Whether this movie will speak to you depends on two things, how much you connect to the line, “We’ll give them the reality this time. A washed-up old man with no friends, no distribution deal, wife on the rocks, people laughin’ at him, feelin’ sorry for himself,” and how funny you think Willem Dafoe is.

It may grow on you. It’s weird like that. If not, I get it.

Zelepukin

Larsen just got more return than Jultz would. #becauseoilers

stevezie

G Money,
frjohnk,

Since you’re dying to know, I’m going to have to side with the Friar on this one.

Those picks couldn’t get you an established top 4, but they could get you a lot closer than Reinhart could. We’ve devalued a trading chip. Forget “established top 4”, maybe those picks could have got us a right-handed version of what Reinhart was supposed to be. A ready-to-play and good-bet-to-be-top-4-someday player would be really nice right now, be instead we have Reinhart.

Even if he is Alzner in two years, the opportunity cost to acquire him has been enormous.

Professor Q

Gordon Sumner:
Any support on here for lobbying for a European football-style relegation structure in the NHL?

The benefits to this plan are fourfold:
1) By this point we would have had a more enjoyable time (over at least the last seven years) taking in our beloved Oil, a middling yet peppy AHL/ECHL team playing in the league the team honestly should be in;
2) Reduced tension (and improved mental health on our part) due to the stakes being lesser;
3) There would be a clear and heavy punishment for teams like ours that repeatedly tank and monopolize draft picks;
4) Players and management would be dissuaded from committing the sort of shameful coasting to which we have been witness for the past five games, including last night’s reaction to the organized physical play of the mighty Sens.

Don’t the AHL and ECHL sort of do that? Like how the Admirals went down to the ECHL and were replaced by Bakersfield (from the ECHL), among a few other instances like that.

GCW_69

Zelepukin: By play, you mean line-up at either side of a face-off.

Exactly!

Who knows, maybe Boudreau can be the yak whisperer.

Zelepukin

GCW_69: They have Corey Perry as their top right wing. Left wing is a bigger problem, unless they view Perron as the long term solution. Fortunately yak can play both sides.

By play, you mean line-up at either side of a face-off.

GCW_69

AsiaOil: they’ve got Santorelli playing top line RW

They have Corey Perry as their top right wing. Left wing is a bigger problem, unless they view Perron as the long term solution. Fortunately yak can play both sides.

Bruce McCurdy

LadiesloveSmid:
wheatnoil,

I’d imagine the flames look great by the lefty-lefty. Gio-Brodie

I’m interested to see the Blackhawks.

GCW_69

SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!: You want to trade Taylor Hall to the Ducks for Lindholm? I think this is the definition of cutting off your nose to spite your face

Lindholm is a first pairing defender at 22. I fair deal to me would be Hall for Lindholm and Ritchie. Lindholm is now your top pairing defender for the next 10-13 years. Check out his HERO chart. Top pairing across the board. Just because he isn’t as well known doesn’t mean he isn’t the real deal.

AsiaOil

The job fixing the defense is so big that Chia must make a hockey trade this week. That gives him the draft and FA/TC to finish the job. I’m not confident of completing the job prior to next season if they don’t even start until late June.

LoDog

Gordon Sumner:
Any support on here for lobbying for a European football-style relegation structure in the NHL?

The benefits to this plan are fourfold:
1) By this point we would have had a more enjoyable time (over at least the last seven years) taking in our beloved Oil, a middling yet peppy AHL/ECHL team playing in the league the team honestly should be in;
2) Reduced tension (and improved mental health on our part) due to the stakes being lesser;
3) There would be a clear and heavy punishment for teams like ours that repeatedly tank and monopolize draft picks;
4) Players and management would be dissuaded from committing the sort of shameful coasting to which we have been witness for the past five games, including last night’s reaction to the organized physical play of the mighty Sens.

I’d love it but it will never happen.

LadiesloveSmid

wheatnoil,

I’d imagine the flames look great by the lefty-lefty. Gio-Brodie

Gordon Sumner

Any support on here for lobbying for a European football-style relegation structure in the NHL?

The benefits to this plan are fourfold:
1) By this point we would have had a more enjoyable time (over at least the last seven years) taking in our beloved Oil, a middling yet peppy AHL/ECHL team playing in the league the team honestly should be in;
2) Reduced tension (and improved mental health on our part) due to the stakes being lesser;
3) There would be a clear and heavy punishment for teams like ours that repeatedly tank and monopolize draft picks;
4) Players and management would be dissuaded from committing the sort of shameful coasting to which we have been witness for the past five games, including last night’s reaction to the organized physical play of the mighty Sens.

LadiesloveSmid

I’d love to see Yak go in a deal for Nichushkin or Drouin. All need fresh starts and honestly like their odds better

kinger_OIL

Helpful guide to playoff runs a la Nordique/Avs for next 10 years, from my position as know nothing LT admirer, but was in Quebec City at start of Nords/Avs ascent:

1) Ebs+ AHL prospect D for Harmonic (or equivalent) solves one problem on D

2) Nurse + picks acquired from this trade-deadline solves another problem on D/Heavy top-6

3) Cash from Nikitin Shultz Ferrence solves another problem on D/Heavy top-6

4) Trade of not 1st overall draft pick + Pou/Yak solves another problem on D/Heavy top-6

5) 2018 trade of one of RNH/Drai balances team with with elite D/Heavy top-6 (this will be the magic bullet that puts the team over the top. Can’t have 3 bonafide #1C’s for 10 year playoff run)

6) Find another G > Talbot (maybe Brossoit?)

spoiler

frjohnk: Now think of a Oilers world which is mostly the same, but add in it that Schultz was signed to a 5 year $5M deal two years ago.
And David Clarkson is patrolling the wing.

Please make the tears stop.

Woodguy

commonfan14: I’d kind of honestly like to see them send down Nurse but not send any of his lefty sticks with him.

Tell him it’s time for his right-handed butt to play with the proper stick and end this ridiculous charade.

I know this is nuts, but I’ll go to my grave believing that all you righties who shoot left are doing it wrong. I personally find it uncomfortable to even turn my head to the right.

More correct analysis.

Woodguy

wheatnoil:
New York Islanders D-Pairs

Corsi:
Lefty – Righty = 50.7% (2386 min)
Lefty – Lefty = 47% (411 min)
Righty – Righty = 48.2% (77 min)

DFF:
Lefty – Righty = 48.8%
Lefty – Lefty = 44.9%
Righty – Righty = 41.4%

If you include only pairings with minimum 50 minutes together:
Lefty – Righty = 51% (2222 min)
Lefty – Lefty = 45.4% (268 min)
Righty – Righty = None

Woodguy wins again when it comes to the Islanders. I’ll try a couple more later tonight.

Again, I am correct in my analysis.

😀

Thanks for grinding the numbers WNO!

commonfan29

Woodguy: Attn: Bruce and LT:
WheatNOil ‏ 8m8 minutes ago
Oilers D-men:
Lefty – Lefty Pairings = 45.4 CF% (737 min)
Lefty – Righty Pairings = 50.1 CF% (2175 min)
@Woodguy55
(@OilersNerdAlert data)
Now if I could just figure out who shoots which way we’d be cooking with gas!

I’d kind of honestly like to see them send down Nurse but not send any of his lefty sticks with him.

Tell him it’s time for his right-handed butt to play with the proper stick and end this ridiculous charade.

I know this is nuts, but I’ll go to my grave believing that all you righties who shoot left are doing it wrong. I personally find it uncomfortable to even turn my head to the right.

Snowman

frjohnk,

Definitely do Eberle for Hamonic if you can pick in the top 3. That way you’ve got a shot at someone like Okposo and you can pick one of the Finns.

I would absolutely not trade Trouba for RNH. I would think about Nurse for Trouba but I don’t think I would do it.

The thing with Nurse is you are gambling on his potential. His potential is huge but there is no certainty he reaches it. There’s probably even less of a chance he reaches it playing with no veterans to mentor him here in Edmonton.

Woodguy is right. Hamonic is exactly what you hope Nurse becomes. He plays top minutes, is physical and scores a little but not a tonne. That’s what Nurse will hopefully be. If you can trade the “potential to be that” for “that right now” at a reasonable contract you gotta do it.

Even if Nurse turns out to be better down the road, its worth the gamble I think. For too long the Oilers have been gathering potential. Time to turn some of that in for some can make a difference now type players.

We love prospects but I bet we love playoffs more.

Edit: I’m not even sure how the Jets could ask for Nuge in exchange for Trouba unless they already had him re-signed. Without that I don’t even think Chia stops laughing on the phone.

frjohnk

AsiaOil:
I wonder if Yak starts a conversation with ANA over Vatanen? He’s 3rd pair in ANA with Despres and they’ve got Santorelli playing top line RW. No wonder ANA is near the bottom of the league in GF. I could see Vatanen looking very nice with Davidson on our 3rd pair with lots of PP time. Not sure if Yak starts the conversation or not.

Nurse for Trouba I would do as it speeds up the overhaul of the defense by 2 years – not sure if WIN would go there – but I’d think long and hard about it if they were interested. Then pair him on the 2nd pair with Sekera. Trouba is where Nurse will be in 2 years and WIN could use a LHD.

Finally – Hamonic for Eberle

That’s ton of wheeling – and we absolutely need to get at least one piece this week – but it would give us:

Klef Hamonic
Sekera Trouba
Davidson GR Vatanen

We lose Eberle – but seriously – whoever plays with CMD is going to get some points. I want the other stuff – defense, size, speed – as CMD will make any line he’s on work.

If Chia can come out of this week with Trouba and Vatanen for Nurse, Yak and spare parts he’s gold – but that probably too much to expect. Whatever – looking forward to the overhaul which is long overdue – and we can see what this looks like after the dust settles.

I don’t think those trades are made this week.

Id do EBERLE for Hamonic. But this would happen this summer. I think that is realistic value going both ways. Snow wanted a Dman back this past fall as he had a RWer in Okposo, so he did not want EBERLE. But if Okposo hits FA, Taveres is going to need a scoring RWer. EBERLE looks good with McDavid, Snow might see EBERLE as a nice fit with Tavares.

I don’t think Yak has much value. The + would have to have greater value than Yak. Pouliot, Yak and a 2nd? ( our 2nd is basically a late 1st). That might be too much from us, but it might have to be something like that.

I think the Jets would aim for a more established player than Nurse. The Jets have Morrissey already on LD. Stauffer said the ask for Trouba would probably be RNH. ( And I don’t want to trade Nurse :))

Snowman

Khaira back up per the Oilers twitter.

G Money

frjohnk,

I would not connect those two.

The only way two picks get you a proven NHL d man is if that d man has major warts (expiring contract, long term albatross contract, age, something). You’re not getting e.g. Hamonic, Shattenkirk, Vatanen, or anyone comparable for those two picks.

Reinhart not already being Top 4 means the bet didn’t work out, but the equivalency is the reverse.

If he had proven to be Top 4 this year, that would have been a huge win. Multiplied value in return.

(People on this board as a general rule WAY overvalue picks; those two picks have, what, a combined 40% chance of getting a single NHL player?)

Gerta Rauss

stevezie: Related note, is there any reason why the Oilers can’t LTIR Ference next year? Using rookie paper transactions it will be easy to start the season with Ference on the roster. Am I missing something? This sounds like an obvious and perfect play.

He has to be injured

The start of the season may not be an issue, but the biggest fear now with the timeline (and the apparent delayed surgery) is that he is “fit and ready for duty” sometime in Nov/Dec/Jan

And, again with the delayed surgery, he may not be healthy enough for a buyout in the June 15-30 window

Tricky situation, although with a little creativity they should be able to come up with some options

*edit* I finally watched The Life Aquatic the other day.I hung in there because of Bill Murray. I didn’t dislike it, it was just…odd.

frjohnk

I wouldn’t be surprised if in the summer that 2 of RNH, Hall, or EBERLE are gone for Dmen to provide balance to this team.

I hope that McDavid does not have to suffer what those 3 have had to.

As Oilers, those 3 have never had a top pairing Dman and a lot of the time have not played with even 1 top 4 Dman. Yeah, they have their warts, but to put the points they did with not much help from the back end and facing the toughs almost every night, has been remarkable.

If one or two of them are sacrificed to bring balance, I’m all for it.

If that happens, it just reinforces to me that the Reinhart trade was a failed move. I liked the idea of trading picks that MIGHT become players in a few years for a Dman who is NHL ready.

But, if, lets say RNH and EBERLE are traded for two top 4 Dman, Reinhart is pushed to 3rd pairing at best, but probably is in the AHL for next year. It would mean that Chia took a big swing with what were basically 2 first rounders ( because it was a deep draft) and maybe got a bloop single. And I say this even though I like Reinhart.

Now I might be sounding like the poster Vermicity or Vermite, or whatever he is going by now, but if Chia ( and Im sure he had help, but he is ultimately responsible) would have connected on the return of those 2 first rounders, the Oilers are probably not having to give up two significant assets to fix the hole on D.

G Money

wheatnoil,

This is fantastic.

JD_Wry

Please take me along as you slide on down…

Adam Wu

speeds:
Adam Wu,

the extra year is more like a pre-flop raise in this analogy, IMO.

Only a minimum raise, though.

He didn’t go all-in like MacT did with Nikitin….

Zelepukin

frjohnk: So are there teams NOT trying to win games?

If yes,

We got this Nikita Niktankitin and Justank Schutlz pair who are exactly what tanking teams need.

Actually you do have a point. If your strategy is to be worse than the Oilers, than acquiring our worst players is a great move. One, you’ve made your team horrible, two you’ve made us better. I’m not sure if Toronto is wiling to go that far.

stevezie

G Money: But if anyone thinks sending out Eberle for a coke machine is somehow going to improve the team, then they didn’t learn one damn thing during the Tambellini era.
And that era was a masterclass in “how not to GM”.

Tambellini was not good GM but he did manage one feat which has eluded wiser men- I don’t think he signed one bad contract.

Oh he signed some bad players, but even Eager came in at reasonable dollars and reasonable term.

Oh wait he signed Khabi, didn’t he? Well fine he signed one, but even that one didn’t kill the cap. A healthy cap is going to define the Oilers’ summer.

Thank God MacT didn’t get Clarkson.

Related note, is there any reason why the Oilers can’t LTIR Ference next year? Using rookie paper transactions it will be easy to start the season with Ference on the roster. Am I missing something? This sounds like an obvious and perfect play.

Oil2Oilers

Things to enjoy for the rest of the season;

McDavid
Nuge & Klef coming back
Rogers SportsNet losing millions with no Canadian teams in the playoffs

& LT’s excellent blogs of course, even if some of us go off the deep end in the comments section after 10 long years of losing.

AsiaOil

I wonder if Yak starts a conversation with ANA over Vatanen? He’s 3rd pair in ANA with Despres and they’ve got Santorelli playing top line RW. No wonder ANA is near the bottom of the league in GF. I could see Vatanen looking very nice with Davidson on our 3rd pair with lots of PP time. Not sure if Yak starts the conversation or not.

Nurse for Trouba I would do as it speeds up the overhaul of the defense by 2 years – not sure if WIN would go there – but I’d think long and hard about it if they were interested. Then pair him on the 2nd pair with Sekera. Trouba is where Nurse will be in 2 years and WIN could use a LHD.

Finally – Hamonic for Eberle

That’s ton of wheeling – and we absolutely need to get at least one piece this week – but it would give us:

Klef Hamonic
Sekera Trouba
Davidson GR Vatanen

We lose Eberle – but seriously – whoever plays with CMD is going to get some points. I want the other stuff – defense, size, speed – as CMD will make any line he’s on work.

If Chia can come out of this week with Trouba and Vatanen for Nurse, Yak and spare parts he’s gold – but that probably too much to expect. Whatever – looking forward to the overhaul which is long overdue – and we can see what this looks like after the dust settles.

frjohnk

Zelepukin: As anyone with any knowledge of hockey has said, you do not play these players if you’re trying to win games

So are there teams NOT trying to win games?

If yes,

We got this Nikita Niktankitin and Justank Schutlz pair who are exactly what tanking teams need.

Mike Wazowski

Chris: now everyone thinks that Marincin is still not a good player.I would point out that he has positive shot metrics (again) and is an even player on a bad team.
The only evidence that Marincin isn’t a good player is that NHL types don’t seem to like him too much.But that reasoning is tautological.Otherwise there would be no point in doing any independent analysis and yet the whole premise of independent analysis is that the people making decisions aren’t always right.
There is no evidence, so far, that Reinhart is a better player than Marincin.He did cost a lot more, so he has that in his favour.

True but stones, glass houses and all that.

It’s always more fun for the eastern media to make fun of the Oilers than to face the fact that their team just entered a full-on rebuild and will be at it for the next 4-5 years before they’re competitive. At least the Oil have pieces now that can be leveraged for more than just draft picks.

wheatnoil

New York Islanders D-Pairs

Corsi:
Lefty – Righty = 50.7% (2386 min)
Lefty – Lefty = 47% (411 min)
Righty – Righty = 48.2% (77 min)

DFF:
Lefty – Righty = 48.8%
Lefty – Lefty = 44.9%
Righty – Righty = 41.4%

If you include only pairings with minimum 50 minutes together:
Lefty – Righty = 51% (2222 min)
Lefty – Lefty = 45.4% (268 min)
Righty – Righty = None

Woodguy wins again when it comes to the Islanders. I’ll try a couple more later tonight.

kinger_OIL

stevezie: Two of these are break evens and I think he was in a real tough spot with Schultz.

The other item should only be revisited on slow days when there is nothing to talk about.

– MacT would have given 2 years + to Shultz. Imagine that gong show

LoDog

kinger_OIL,

Schultz, Purcell and one more that isn’t Lestestu, maybe Fayne. I would think the Oilers are quite happy with Letestu.

kinger_OIL

stevezie: Here’s the list the OIL would like to use to reconfigure roster I guess:

Yes – I changed the question to : “Here’s the list the OIL would like to use to reconfigure roster I guess:”

– 2 is likely, 3 would be great, 4 amazing, Leaf type success

– I agree Hockey trade not likely now

stevezie

speeds: Adam Wu: Korpikoski is all on Chia, and is really the only move that I think is valid at this point to criticize Chia for.
Marincin trade?
Reinhart trade?
Schultz QO?
Letestu signing?

Two of these are break evens and I think he was in a real tough spot with Schultz.

The other item should only be revisited on slow days when there is nothing to talk about.

Sugar Reijo

frjohnk: Now think of a Oilers world which is mostly the same, but add in it that Schultz was signed to a 5 year $5M deal two years ago.
And David Clarkson is patrolling the wing.

Anybody else’s brain just do that explosion thing from Scanners?

Zelepukin

frjohnk: But I would say that the number of guys sent out is 2. Purcell and one of Schultz, Fayne or Korpikoski.

Only Purcell will be moved. If we’re lucky, Fayne. Chia deserves a bronze statue if he convinces anyone to pick up Korps or Jultz at the deadline. As anyone with any knowledge of hockey has said, you do not play these players if you’re trying to win games, let alone playoff games.

frjohnk

kinger_OIL:
What’s the over/under on the # of players that the OIL ship off:

Here’s the list the OIL would like to be rid of I suspect:
– Le-Tit’s-up
– Korp
– Purcell
– Shultz
– Yak
– Gryba
– Nikitin
– One Steve Austin
– Pou
– Lander
– Ferrence (don’t see how they get rid of him)
– Gadzic (see above)

12 players.

– What’s a good over/under for next week deadline?

– If we can ship out 3, I’d be pleased

Purcell is gone. He might only garner a 3rd, even though his comparables will bring in at least a 2nd. Purcell suffers from Oileritis. His value is less cause he is an Oiler.

Schultz probably fetches a 5th. After we send out a 3rd with him.

Maybe Korpikoski, or maybe Fayne if we can not find a dance partner for Schultz. But again, they suffer from Oileritis, so they wont fetch us much. We would have to retain to send them out.

And we can only retain money on two more contracts as we are already retaining part of Scrivens contract.

Chia would probably like to send out those 4 and others.

But I would say that the number of guys sent out is 2. Purcell and one of Schultz, Fayne or Korpikoski.

I don’t see Chia making a hockey deal. That will be in the summer.

stevezie

kinger_OIL,

Anyone making less than a 900k can be fully buried, so Gazdic doesn’t really matter and neither does Lander. At this point, neither does Gryba or Nitkinin. I just realised that I took you to mean, “would be happy to be rid of”, when you probably meant, “would like to turn into something more useful.”

This casts the list in a light I have a much harder time arguing with (i was warming up on a few names).

I will say that I really don’t think Chia “wants” to trade any of the Austins, he just suspects he may have to. None are sinking the team, and with the right additions all could happily contribute to a Chia team.