TOP 20 PROSPECTS UPDATE (2016 EDITION)

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers best prospects are graduating this spring. Those prospects are sensational young players, but make no mistake: They are leaving behind a very poor prospect list. Among the alarm bells going off in Peter Chiarelli’s brain, behind defensemen who can play, value contracts and the power play, re-stocking the prospect shelves has to be high on the priority list.

  • Edmonton Journal, 1969: ”We couldn’t believe the way the draft went, it was ridiculous,” said Del Wilson, Montreal’s Director of Player Personnel. ‘‘We got 10 of our top thirty-three. We were hoping to fluke out and maybe get four.” Wilson quotes (Sam) Pollock as saying after the draft: ”We’ve either got the best or the worst scouting staff in the world.” Source

Montreal, in 1969, received the first and second round picks due to a ridiculous rule I won’t bore you with, suffice to say it skewed the balance of power in the NHL to an insane extent and it is a rule the league should have been ashamed of—and they did abolish it after 1969. Problem? Montreal received Rejean Houle and Marc Tardif from the rule, effectively robbing expansion teams from getting a shot at a brilliant two-way forward and terrific scorer, respectively. Incredible.

Despite all the hoopla about getting 10 of their 33, Montreal didn’t fare all that well. Bobby Sheehan was a fleet center with some skill, but Montreal missed on their other selections. In fact, by the time Montreal chose Sheehan No. 32 overall, most of the best talent had been taken. Names included Bobby Clarke, Ivan Boldirev, Andre Dupont, Ron Stackhouse and Dick Redmond. Montreal missed on later gems like Butch Goring, Don Saleski, Brian Spencer and others. It is very important to maximize draft picks, understanding that after a certain point the chances of getting an actual player is basically a crap shoot. Edmonton needs a watershed draft in 2016. Will they get one? Here is an update on the Oilers top prospects from my winter list.

nurse and mcdavid by connor mah

photo by Connor Mah

  1. C Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers (28, 12-19-31). Since I wrote about him in November, he has returned and posted 15, 7-12-19 while pushing many nights. He graduates from the top 20 and is the most important asset for team building in the NHL today. Oilers must pinch themselves daily over their incredible fortune. Generational talent.
  2. C Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers (55, 16-28-44). Another graduate, he has posted 50, 13-24-37 since I wrote about him for the top 20. Draisaitl has been so impressive over the season it is possible to entertain the idea of building a three-scoring line offense as early as next season. Unicorns? Unicorns. Big C with speed and skill.
  3. D Darnell Nurse, Edmonton Oilers (55, 2-6-8). The third graduate from the winter list, he is 46, 1-3-4 since I wrote about him for the top 20 prospects (the offense has dried up completely). Defensemen take time to develop, and Nurse would probably have benefited from more time in Bakersfield. I like his long-term future, but playing time in Edmonton next season may be harder to find. Future shutdown defender.
  4. W Anton Slepyshev, Edmonton Oilers (11, 0-1-1) and Bakersfield Condors (31, 7-3-10). Had a tremendous training camp, but slowed during the regular year (he was in the minors when I wrote about him) and had injury issues in Bakersfield. This is an NHL talent, and I think he might be able to establish himself as a scorer. Important for Edmonton to develop players like Slepyshev, they can’t be pissing away talented players. That said, I could see Slepyshev bolting back to the KHL for next season. Skill winger with size, not a lock to become an NHL player.
  5. D Griffin Reinhart, Edmonton Oilers (15, 0-1-1) and Bakersfield Condors (25, 1-7-8). So much has been written about GR, it is almost impossible to talk about him without bias entering the conversation. He is 22, he is not a typical No. 4 overall, and playing in Bakersfield appears to be the best place for him at this time. The Oilers are enjoying the results of Brandon Davidson’s 150 AHL games, perhaps we should wait in writing off Reinhart. It was an overpay, that is not something Reinhart should answer for, now or later. Developing defenseman.
  6. G Laurent Brossoit, Edmonton Oilers (1, 0.93 .970) and Bakersfield Condors (28, 2.69 .919). Along with Brandon Davidson, the feel good development story of this season is Brossoit. He will be a prospect on next winter’s top 20, but he may do it as a full-time member of the Oilers. Craig MacTavish takes a lot of heat, and deservedly, but that was a good trade. Emerging goaltender.
  7. G Anders Nilsson, Edmonton Oilers (26, 3.14 .901). Had an fascinating Oilers career in about a six month time frame. From curio to impressive to wobbly to gone, that is one quick episode. Now in St. Louis, we wish him well. Gone.
  8. D Brandon Davidson, Edmonton Oilers (48, 4-6-10). He was 12, 2-2-4 when I wrote about him, 36, 2-4-6 since then. Davidson has emerged as a complete defender, a five-year overnight sensation. Thrilled for him, he appears to be taking on more of a role in special teams. May be a top 4D as soon as next season—in fact, he is playing there now. The new Fernando Pisani.
  9. D Ethan Bear, Seattle Thunderbirds (60, 17-41-58). Bear is enjoying a terrific season in the WHL and is trending well ahead of expectations. Very important not to overreact to this season, it is a long road. That said, you can only play the games in front of you and Bear has been splendid. Promising defensive prospect.
  10. R Iiro Pakarinen, Edmonton Oilers (51, 4-4-8). Since I wrote about him, he is 33, 1-4-5 and that lack of offense makes him vulnerable for next season. One thing we need to remember about the Oilers is this: They are going to get bigger (he is 6.01, 215) and more experienced (he is 24, with 68 NHL games). There may be a role for him, but it is not guaranteed. Pakarinen is the sixth player in the top 10 who will not be on the summer list (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse, Nilsson, Davidson, Pakarinen). Checking or depth winger.
  11. C Bogdan Yakimov, Bakersfield Condors (19, 3-4-7) and Nizhnekamsk Neftekhimik (11, 3-1-4). A frustrated Yakimov bolted back to the KHL, and his return date is unknown. A giant (6.05, 232) center, he would seem to be a useful player when he develops, but the offense didn’t spike in year two. It is anyone’s guess in regard to Yakimov as a solution next season, probably wise to bet against him returning. Giant flight risk. Update: The day after this post was published, Yakimov returned to NA and the Condors. Wildly encouraging news.
  12. F Jujhar Khaira, Edmonton Oilers (15, 0-2-2) and Bakersfield Condors (32, 8-14-22). A very encouraging season from the big forward (he is 6.03, 214), very impressive in both cities. Khaira has one more year of his entry-level deal, and I can see him playing in Edmonton part-time again next year. Rugged forward with some skill.
  13. D Caleb Jones, Portland Winterhawks (63, 10-39-49). I read a lot about these young prospects, before the draft and then I drill down on information after the draft, too. Everything I read about Jones suggested he was a little shy offensively. That appears to be false, and we could be looking at a more complete player. These are early days, but factoring in this offense, and the fact his Dad was an athlete and his brother is extremely successful in the same sport, this is a player to watch. Complete skill set appears to be his resume.
  14. C Kyle Platzer, Bakersfield Condors (39, 5-10-15). Platzer is somewhat similar to Kyle Brodziak in his early days—not exactly setting the world on fire. He isn’t playing as much as some of the prospects ahead of him on this list, one hopes he gets more playing time next season. Two-way center under the radar.
  15. D Ziyat Paigin, Kazan Ak Bars (8, 0-1-1) and Sochi HC (37, 9-18-27). Paigin’s progress this season has been incredible, to the point where he might rank as the No. 1 prospect on the list heading into the draft this summer (remember, most of the top ten graduates). Big (6.06, 210) and effective. A giant on the way.
  16. D William Lagesson, UMass-Amherst (25, 2-5-7). Mobile defender impressed Oilers fans at the world juniors, and will probably move up the list in summer. Looks like his defensive skills are the greatest part of his game, he is a promising young player. Promising defensive defenseman.
  17. D Joey Laleggia, Bakersfield Condors (45, 7-16-23). Laleggia has had an unusual season, including time on left wing where some believe he has played his best hockey. He is terrifically skilled and running a pro power play seems to be something he will be good at as he matures at that level. There are defensive issues, but the coverage aspect appears to be improving. Offensive defenseman with rover rising.
  18. D Dillon Simpson, Bakersfield Condors (39, 2-10-12). Simpson is a quiet prospect, you have to pay close attention to get much information. He is progressing as a defenseman, and recently had a slight uptick in the offense (1-5-6 in his last 10) and that may be due to callups for other Condors blue. Very difficult player to assess, as was Brandon Davidson. Slow, steady progress for steady defenseman.
  19. R Greg Chase, Bakersfield Condors (19, 1-6-7) and Norfolk Admirals (26, 15-9-24). Chase is performing well in both cities, but you can’t ignore the fact he is getting more playing time in the ECHL. I see that as an benefit for this player, as he can hit the ground running next season ala Mark Arcobello and Josh Winquist in previous seasons. Agitating winger with offense, has a long way to go.
  20. D John Marino, Tri-City Storm (43, 3-22-25). Among the impressive 2015 draftees (this top 20 houses five names called in that draft. A smooth skater with a range of skills, we are miles away from knowing him as a player. All of the indicators look good, plenty of good arrows. Puck-moving defenseman with wheels.

I will do the 21-40 update sometime in the next few days. To give you an idea about how many players will graduate, and how little there is developing under the NHL level, here is what my top 10 would look like currently (using this 20 minus graduates):

  1. D Ziyat Paigin
  2. G Laurent Brossoit
  3. C Jujhar Khaira
  4. D Griffin Reinhart
  5. W Anton Slepyshev
  6. D Ethan Bear
  7. C Bogdan Yakimov
  8. D Caleb Jones
  9. D John Marino
  10. D William Lagesson
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The Trade Guy

threeputtdouble: 100% correct.The greatest defensive hockey performance in history was Team Canada in the last Olympics.It would have been a total fluke for any other team to win.They almost didn’t get scored on in the entire tournament.Anybody suggesting we should be picking more offensive d-men now was not paying attention.

I guess but its a show case of the game.

“Wow the best players in the world played a really tight checking game and my team won so that was good I guess. I can’t wait to watch the NHL and watch lesser players play like this.”

threeputtdouble

who: I think teams take dmen who can defend first. Lots of these guys put up points as well. Burns and Klingberg are not elite defenders. They play more like rovers. Yes they put up points and are fun to watch but they give up lots of chances as well. Team Canada won the last Olympics by basically shutting down any offense against and I am guessing they will use the same blueprint this time around. Personally I would rather watch the river hockey but that is not what wins.

100% correct. The greatest defensive hockey performance in history was Team Canada in the last Olympics. It would have been a total fluke for any other team to win. They almost didn’t get scored on in the entire tournament. Anybody suggesting we should be picking more offensive d-men now was not paying attention.

GCW_69

russ99: True, but another big problem is lack of skill forwards to play with.

All 4 lines on Bakersfield could be considered 3rd or 4th lines. Hopefully that changes with this draft, but they could also change the mix of the AHL veterans, away from the Fords and the Hamiltons, to players who can help other skill prospects develop, like a Maltais or Giroux.

From a development point of view, I kinda think you want your AHL forwards lines to look like this:

Line 1: Two offensive oriented prospects, one veteran
Line 2: Two offensive oriented prospects, or one offensive and one two way prospect, one veteran
Line 3: Two two way oriented prospects, one veteran
Line 4: Three AHL only veteran types

Oilers do it in reverse.

Cassandra

AsiaOil:
Karl Alzner – full junior career and 2 years mostly in AHL before full time in the NHL in his 3rd year as a pro. Always been the best Reinhart comp in terms of style, talent and high pick in a very weak draft.

Perhaps I am misreading his hockeyreference page but Alzner was drafted in 2007 then

07-08 in Junior Draft + 1
08-09 AHL–NHL Draft + 2
09-10 AHL–NHL Draft + 3
10-11 NHL for good Draft + 4

Isn’t Reinhart in his Draft +4 year right now? If so he’s behind the Alzner curve.

russ99

GCW_69: Not burying players with KHL experience or who have more than one year of AHL experience on the third and fourth line in Bakersfield is a good place to start.

True, but another big problem is lack of skill forwards to play with.

All 4 lines on Bakersfield could be considered 3rd or 4th lines. Hopefully that changes with this draft, but they could also change the mix of the AHL veterans, away from the Fords and the Hamiltons, to players who can help other skill prospects develop, like a Maltais or Giroux.

Kiltymcbagpipes

I’m not going to go on an anti-Hall rant but keep in mind in these tournaments it’s not always the leading scorers who get invited to play for their countries. If it was then guys like Subban, Burns, Giroux and Hall would be shoe-ins. Babcock and the Team Canada brass typically look for guys who play a complete game and are responsible defensively. That is why guys like Bergeron are on the team they bring an array of skills and versatility that someone like Hall for example does not. I still think he will ultimately end up on the team but would not be surprised if he didnt for the reasons I stated. Just my 2 cents.

PhrankLee

Very cool site and blog about special teams. In the “Aabout the project” segment he gives an indirect shout out to our little piece of heaven provided by the famous LT.

http://www.nhlspecialteams.com/

The newest article about how effective the drop pass zone entry is on PP.

Good site.

stevezie

Woodguy,

I probably overstated as I was just looking at the first round. I was using the likelihood of getting a good NHL player. The 2007 first round had the fewest busts of 04-09. My terms are somewhat subjective as games played isn’t perfect for different years and some players like Da Haan have come on late. Basically, is the player playing full-time and not for development purposes?

In the very least what was projected to being a poor draft turned out to be a fine draft.

Woodguy

stevezie,

I’m being very pedantic here, but while the ’07 draft was thought to be a weak one, it actually turned out to be unusually strong

Unusually strong?

In what way?

In terms of upper end talent, its not great.

In terms of total GP so far, its not great either.

stevezie

AsiaOil:
Karl Alzner – full junior career and 2 years mostly in AHL before full time in the NHL in his 3rd year as a pro. Always been the best Reinhart comp in terms of style, talent and high pick in a very weak draft.

I’m being very pedantic here, but while the ’07 draft was thought to be a weak one, it actually turned out to be unusually strong. Probably a lesson about the fallibility of scouts and the danger of a consensus in there.

I’m not calling the scouts dumb, the things they didn’t know couldn’t be known. 17 year-old are lottery tickets.

AsiaOil

Karl Alzner – full junior career and 2 years mostly in AHL before full time in the NHL in his 3rd year as a pro. Always been the best Reinhart comp in terms of style, talent and high pick in a very weak draft.

Caramel Batman: Everyone preaching patience with Reinhart, I have a question. How often do first round picks not develop into impact players until they are 23 or 24? Does it ever happen? I ask because Reinhart is 22.

Genjutsu

Lowetide: Absolutely on point, and a theme of my RE series at the end of the year. There were points in the year where Reinhart up, Nurse down was obvious. Oilers did not do it. I think that needs to be examined.

I think cap consequences are the largest part of the answer for this. The difference in dollars is significant.

I’m not sure how much fault to put on management for this as long term I don’t really see this effecting either players development greatly.

Not really sure how much of a difference it would have made in the standings either.

The concern of overage effecting next years cap was IMO the deciding factor.

G Money

Someone here a while back suggested the idea of using or at least investigating individual Corsi over the course of a game (I shall dub it … Coursi … of Cors I will) as a measure of fatigue and/or fitness.

I thought this was an outstanding idea, and I’m working on an analysis based on it. (Remains to be seen if it will yield anything much of interest, but I totally dig the concept)

Unfortunately, bad bad me, I have forgotten who suggested the idea.

I hope you are reading this, and if so, please pipe up when you get a chance – I would very much like to make sure you get the appropriate hat tip.

Steve4

wheatnoil: The rumour at the time was that Neely (President) was often at loggerheads with Chiarelli and wanted to solidify his power. Boston had a disappointing finish and the Boychuk trade looked poor, the cap management wasn’t great, so there was grounds for firing and Neely took the opportunity. This may explain why Chiarelli insisted on both President and GM role when he came… he needed to have complete roster control.

Now, whether the behind-the-scenes politics is true or not, I don’t know for sure, but I remember that being the discussion around the time of the hiring.

That was the discussion throughout the season prior to his firing.

wheatnoil

Quinlan:
Lowetide,

He overpaid for two depth players, as have Lombardi and Bowman. How does that equate to a firing offense?

The Bruins are still largely his team, and as of today, they’re in a playoff spot.

You’d think he’d have been given time to make some moves and get out from under those contracts. This is the manager who built the team into a Cup contender – he’d proven he could build. I’m surprised they wouldn’t have let him figure out the contract issues.

Chara’s was decent value for the majority of the contract, Seidenberg’s was not great, but fairly typical 2nd pairing money, and Kelly’s was an overpay of at least 500K, which is up at the end of the year.

Still a head scratcher to me. Glad the Oil have him.

The rumour at the time was that Neely (President) was often at loggerheads with Chiarelli and wanted to solidify his power. Boston had a disappointing finish and the Boychuk trade looked poor, the cap management wasn’t great, so there was grounds for firing and Neely took the opportunity. This may explain why Chiarelli insisted on both President and GM role when he came… he needed to have complete roster control.

Now, whether the behind-the-scenes politics is true or not, I don’t know for sure, but I remember that being the discussion around the time of the hiring.

Cassandra

I won’t be surprised if Hall doesn’t make Team Canada. He’s the most underappreciated player of the past ten years and I’m not sure it is going to change.

They are going to add four forwards, probably from this group.

Giroux
Hall
Perry
Duchene
Marchand
O’Reilly

Perry is a lock, that means two the other five won’t make the team. Marchand is gritty and has a Stanley Cup. I bet he makes it. Duchene made it last time. And that’s without considering the typical Team Canada whacky selection.

Steve4

Chiarelli was moved out to make room for Neely and Sweeny. It was an internal power struggle, and that is what makes our debt of a 2nd rounder so preposterous!

I don’t think our prospect pool is an issue. We’ve graduated so many players this year, that the vacuum is to be expected. I’m sure Pete has a couple guys in mind. They’ll be fine. If they end up making that top pick, they’ll be golden. (though, I’d rather trade it for Vatanen or the like).

Professor Q

Water Fire,

Surely Hall and Eberle’s play internationally would finally gain them trust and acknowledgement, non?

Quinlan

Dominoiler,

Especially when they have Plekanec in that spot.

That said, Galchenyuk doesn’t seem to be struggling all that badly this year, in fact, he’s doing really well. Probably a 2nd line forward, who can fill in @ 1st line should injury come. Don’t think he’s a center in the long-term though.

Funny how Montreal is also turning against their best players. Canadian markets, eh? 😉

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Caramel Batman,

Sounds hot!

Quinlan

Lowetide,

He overpaid for two depth players, as have Lombardi and Bowman. How does that equate to a firing offense?

The Bruins are still largely his team, and as of today, they’re in a playoff spot.

You’d think he’d have been given time to make some moves and get out from under those contracts. This is the manager who built the team into a Cup contender – he’d proven he could build. I’m surprised they wouldn’t have let him figure out the contract issues.

Chara’s was decent value for the majority of the contract, Seidenberg’s was not great, but fairly typical 2nd pairing money, and Kelly’s was an overpay of at least 500K, which is up at the end of the year.

Still a head scratcher to me. Glad the Oil have him.

Cassandra

Lowetide,

Not touted by you, touted by those who hang around here.

Go back to the thread on the day of the trade. There was some complaining at first, and then the mob came out and chased away the people that didn’t like the trade, or in my case, hated the trade with the fire of a thousand suns.

Cassandra

Ian Cole didn’t play consistently until he was 25. So that’s hopeful.
Mark Fistric didn’t play until he was 23. There is that.

So what I’m saying is that I don’t think Reinhart is Colton Teubert or anything like that. And if you look at past first round picks there are a lot worse players than Reinhart. But it’s pretty hard to find a precedent for a player that was drafted where he was drafted (and hence already developed) but then struggled as much as he has struggled, who nonetheless turned into good NHL players.

First round talent peaks early. It’s foolhardy to project or otherwise assume continuous development.

On that note, McDavid isn’t going to keep getting better. He’s likely as fast now as he is ever going to be. Scoring peaks especially early. Sidney Crosby’s highest scoring season was his second in the league. Now scoring has gone down since then, but still. This is very, very, common, especially with first round picks (both Hall and Eberle had their best scoring years when they were 21).

Players get smarter as they get older, but they don’t get faster.

Dominoiler

Quinlan:
That Nilan segment was something else.

Yeah, what a segment.. drink every time knuckles holds back an F bomb.. 🙂

Seriously tho, Montreal fans need to learn how bad of an idea it is to play galchenyuk 1st line centre.. these young pups are going to struggle having to play 1st line minutes.. (Nuge for years, Leon now)

Cassandra

Everyone preaching patience with Reinhart, I have a question. How often do first round picks not develop into impact players until they are 23 or 24? Does it ever happen? I ask because Reinhart is 22.

We heard the de Haan comparison (established at 22), and in the past we heard the Coburn comparison (established at 22). Are there any others?

There is such a thing as first round talent exploding on the scene. And there is such a thing as late bloomers like Davidson. But is there such a thing as late blooming first round talents? Patience here costs nothing, but is there any real, tangible, ground for hope? Any example of a comparable player in terms of pedigree who has followed the same career path and turned into a good player on the other side?

And remember, when the Reinhart trade was made, the majority of people here were proclaiming he had top pairing potential and was a virtual guarantee to play top four. This was always unlikely, and hardly credible now. He has to improve a lot just to become as valuable as Eric Gryba.

AsiaOil

Thanks G – yes I remember that game and it was a doozy of an effort. GR is going to be inconsistent until he matures and there is no where to hide on the Oilers present roster and no one to help him hide. Same with Nurse who everyone agrees needs to go down. I think mgmt has almost no options until Klef comes back and has kept Nurse up for no other reason than he has more support amongst the fans. GR has a flock of critics ready to flail him after every mistake and destroy the kid. So they are protecting GR from the fans as much as the opposition players. I don’t like Nurse getting crushed every night though as he needs to play like the baddest mofo on the ice to be really effective. They will both be fine in the long run – but we do have a lot of LHD.

G Money:
We saw Griffin up for three games a few weeks ago.The last two (CBJ, NYI) he did not look very good at all.

Forgotten is that in the game before that, he and Gryba absolutely tore the cover off the ball.They were an incredibly good pairing, and visually at least, Reinhart was the prime motivator on that pairing.

The two of them in over 14 minutes of ice time pitched a ludicrous (season low for all D pairs) DFA/60 of 0.8.Not a typo.ZERO POINT EIGHT.The Mendoza line is about 40.

Lest you think that is an error, or that the DFA metric must just have gone awry, then have a gander at the ‘shots against’ rink map that game (again, this is in more than 14 minutes of EVTOI):

http://i.imgur.com/dtxicaz.png

As I recall, he also jumped up and created a terrific and extremely surprising scoring chance a couple of times.

IF or when GR can bring that game every game instead of every three or four games, man, we are gonna have something.

Much too soon to write him off.

Material Elvis

Cahoon:
Yeah, listening to it, this is definitely what was supposed to be linked to. Chris Nilan is losing it!

Nilan has the perfect nickname.

Quinlan

That Nilan segment was something else.

If he’s telling the truth about what happened in Boston, that paints Chiarelli’s biggest mistake in a far different light. Certainly makes me feel more assured of his decision making processes.

I’m left scratching my head though – if Chiarelli wasn’t fired for trading Seguin, what other failure was the cause? His drafting wasn’t bad, nor his pro acquisitions. He got them a Cup and he’d set them up for a decade of success after, provided he could work around some contract difficulties.

Woodguy

Fog of Warts: Superforecasting

Been meaning to pick that up.

I disagree more with Garder than I agree with him, but I like his books and that topic is interesting.

Mustard Tiger

This is really cool.
Map of virtually every pro/jr hockey team in North America.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=zIMarFx5T1Ko.kVITPktO4iYY

G Money

We saw Griffin up for three games a few weeks ago. The last two (CBJ, NYI) he did not look very good at all.

Forgotten is that in the game before that, he and Gryba absolutely tore the cover off the ball. They were an incredibly good pairing, and visually at least, Reinhart was the prime motivator on that pairing.

The two of them in over 14 minutes of ice time pitched a ludicrous (season low for all D pairs) DFA/60 of 0.8. Not a typo. ZERO POINT EIGHT. The Mendoza line is about 40.

Lest you think that is an error, or that the DFA metric must just have gone awry, then have a gander at the ‘shots against’ rink map that game (again, this is in more than 14 minutes of EVTOI):

http://i.imgur.com/dtxicaz.png

As I recall, he also jumped up and created a terrific and extremely surprising scoring chance a couple of times.

IF or when GR can bring that game every game instead of every three or four games, man, we are gonna have something.

Much too soon to write him off.

Woogie63

Woodguy: This is a good take and on point imo.

Generally agree with this …AND Nurse skates at the NHL level and for the first swing through the league that really helped. Second and third time through the league are harder for a rookie.

New Improved Darkness

Woodguy: This is a good take and on point imo.

I’m presently reading Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock.

An entire chapter on combining leadership with data humility is built around the Prussian Wehrmacht circa 1870. Define the required outcome, but leave the methods up to the boots on the ground, recursively all the way down the chain of command.

All decisions decisive, with 100% follow through by everyone involved.

Exception: there comes a time when “overwhelming” evidence exists that the current decision is the wrong decision. Properly calibrating this recognition of overwhelming contrary evidence was regarded as one of the great challenges of leadership by the Prussian academy.

The book is worth reading for this chapter alone, but if you don’t have the book handy, much of the background is found at Moltke’s theory of war.

Water Fire

Woodguy,

“I think Reinhart suffers from the same thing Fayne does to a lesser extent.
Slow feet mean when you get beat in close, or when your check changes direction and loses you it looks really bad.
Really bad.“

The room for slow is getting as big as the room for staged fighter. No reason GR shouldn`t know how to skate (rich NHL dad), it could be decision making. Bottom line is get better and fast.

knighttown:
As Frustrating as the Hall omission is there are some real puzzlers. For instance, 5 of the top 8 defensemen scorers in the NHL were not named.

Brent Burns- 54 points to lead all Canadian defensemen and he’d be 4th on the entire team in scoring. I see him as a Hart and Norris candidate.

John Klingberg- his 53 points is 4th among all Swedes

When you omit guys like this you’re essentially saying how you play during the season doesn’t matter.

Teams take the guys that played before. Period.

So all the best hockey managers in the world come to the same conclusion.

Goals are important, but not everything. Few players are able to outscore irresponsible play at the highest level, unsurprisingly.

My evidence being one way high offense players are regularly moved and strong offense two way players aren`t.

It`s like the old addage saving a penny is easier than earning an extra penny.

who

knighttown:
As Frustrating as the Hall omission is there are some real puzzlers. For instance, 5 of the top 8 defensemen scorers in the NHL were not named.

Brent Burns- 54 points to lead all Canadian defensemen and he’d be 4th on the entire team in scoring. I see him as a Hart and Norris candidate.

John Klingberg- his 53 points is 4th among all Swedes

When you omit guys like this you’re essentially saying how you play during the season doesn’t matter.

Teams take the guys that played before. Period.

I think teams take dmen who can defend first. Lots of these guys put up points as well. Burns and Klingberg are not elite defenders. They play more like rovers. Yes they put up points and are fun to watch but they give up lots of chances as well. Team Canada won the last Olympics by basically shutting down any offense against and I am guessing they will use the same blueprint this time around. Personally I would rather watch the river hockey but that is not what wins.

wintoon

Lowetide,

For some reason it seems that fans only consider a D man to be any good if he is scoring 40+ points per year. Well newsflash everyone. There are many top notch D men in the NHL who don’t score at anywhere near that rate. It is not a sin to be a good defenseman and not be a prolific scorer.

VvV

Fail, forgot all about Jordan Oesterle!

Cahoon

Yeah, listening to it, this is definitely what was supposed to be linked to. Chris Nilan is losing it!

JD_Wry

Woodguy,

Cahoon has got it, just above.

knighttown

As Frustrating as the Hall omission is there are some real puzzlers. For instance, 5 of the top 8 defensemen scorers in the NHL were not named.

Brent Burns- 54 points to lead all Canadian defensemen and he’d be 4th on the entire team in scoring. I see him as a Hart and Norris candidate.

John Klingberg- his 53 points is 4th among all Swedes

When you omit guys like this you’re essentially saying how you play during the season doesn’t matter.

Teams take the guys that played before. Period.

Cahoon

Woodguy,

I went to the link and same thing.

This is the closest thing to the topic that I could find:

http://www.tsn.ca/radio/montreal-690/habs-lunch-are-the-media-and-fans-too-hard-on-marc-bergevin-1.446180

Woodguy

godot10:
Nurse is in the NHL over Reinhart because he is assertive and not hesitant in making decisions, even if they are bad ones.With his skillset, it is better for him to learn better decision making at the NHL level, because he can get away with poor decisions at the AHL level.

Reinhart was somewhat hesitant in his decision-making early in the season.Which is why he is in the AHL.One has to make decisive decisions and be able to shake off the consequences of bad ones to learn at the NHL level.So Reinhart is better off at the AHL level for now.

This is a good take and on point imo.

Woodguy

wheatnoil:
Nurse has done better as the year has gone on and the quality of competition has dropped, but even then his numbers remain generally poor. It’s tough to compare he and Reinhart on account of the gap in minutes played, injury and competition at times, but it’s worth pointing out that Reinhart has generally been equal or better than Nurse in most stats. By that measure, you could make the argument for Reinhart being the NHL regular and Nurse being the occasional call-up from the minors. If that were the case, I think the vitriol at the Reinhart trade might be at least somewhat softer.

I think Reinhart suffers from the same thing Fayne does to a lesser extent.

Slow feet mean when you get beat in close, or when your check changes direction and loses you it looks really bad.

Really bad.

Reinhart’s last game in the NHL was not good at all in this respect. Good gaps on his checks, but then they’d shake him in 2 strides and it looked terrible.

Nurse on the other hand stays with his checks better and gets to where he needs to be (when he goes to the right spot, which is a big part of what he needs to work on), but once he gets to the right spot he often gets puck watching, or chases and leaves men open who shouldn’t be.

Neither move the puck fast enough when they get it, but Nurse is faster than Griff at this.

Griff never played higher than 3rds, mostly with Gryba (44.5%) and a bit with Davidson (57.5%)

Nurse on the other hand, played 1st w/ Sekera (43.8%), 2nds with Jultz (47.2%), 2nd w/ Davidson (51.9%) and then 3rds with Gryba (48.5%), Fayne (46.2%) and Clendenning (36.2%…ugh)

The coach (too high up the line up) and GM (where’s his warm blanket?) own a lot of this.

At least the did the right thing with Griff

Hope they do the right thing with Nurse.

flyfish1168

Lowetide: I think, and this is a guess, they didn’t see the value in taking another forward (probably center) and did not like any of the defensemen available at that number. I am not defending the move, but PC needs to get defenders who are older than McDavid (forwards too) out in front of him. I understand the plan, the price was too high.

I totally agree. I was wondering why didn’t they look for a RHD at that point as a possible trade instead of GR

Woodguy

Genjutsu:
Completely off topic, a habs fan buddy sent me this link of Chris Nilan losing it on TSN radio.

Adds some context to the worst move in Chia’s history and why Boston got rid of a franchise player:

http://www.tsn.ca/radio/montreal-690/habs-lunch-are-the-media-and-fans-too-hard-on-marc-bergevin-1.44618

Sorry to be kind of gossipy but I think this is a credible source and does make sense a trade that made zero sense.

Link takes me to a British Open post and I can’t find it on their site.

Help?

MrEd

Otherwise? So much for continuity. 🙂

MrEd

Hoping Hall finds it again for the stretch.