SWEET AND DANDY

by Lowetide

Connor McDavid posted two more points last night, drilling opponents like no other since the All-Star break. Last night, the team had a tough outing in Columbus, but the road is long and screw you, schedule maker. The club has been solid (last night aside) so it’s on to Portage and Main and let’s see action.

WHEATFIELD SOUL, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
  • Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
  • Oilers in December 2014: 2-8-4
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1
  • Oilers in January 2015: 5-7-1
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2
  • Oilers in February 2015: 5-6-1
  • Oilers in February 2016: 4-8-2
  • Oilers in March 2015: 5-6-3
  • Oilers in March 2016: 2-1-0
  • Oilers after 67 in 2014-15: 18-38-11, 47 points (-75 GD)
  • Oilers after 67 in 2015-16: 25-35-7, 57 points (-35 GD)

I can’t get too upset about the L last night, Edmonton had a dandy start to the week and climbed out of their doldrums smartly. Edmonton needs five points to reach last season’s total, and if they match the Nelson Oilers from here to the end of the line, Edmonton would finish 31-41-10, 72 points. That seems a reasonable goal (although wildly disappointing based on pre-season conversations).

INDIVIDUAL HIGH-DANGER SCORING CHANCES

  • Four: Taylor Hall
  • Three: Leon Draisaitl, Zack Kassian
  • Two: Iiro Pakarinen
  • One: Connor McDavid, Nail Yakupov, Jordan Eberle

DEFENSE LAST NIGHT

oilers blue nov 30

  • Davidson—Pardy had monster possession numbers, but Pardy was not strong with the puck on his stick in the defensive zone and had some delay in decision-making. Davidson got a dash two for being on the ice at the same time, but I thought he played well overall in what was a chaotic game. His point shot is pretty damned good, and his decisions are consistently good even if they don’t always work out.
  • Sekera—Fayne looked cool, calm and collected to my eye, Sekera picking up two assists and both men making the smart play most of the time. It seems there is very little chance Fayne returns—he is too expensive for third pairing and one suspects Todd McLellan wants more mobility in his top four—but this is a pretty nice pairing.
  • Nurse—Nikitin were in the news early and often, rarely for good reasons. Coverage issues for both were rife and they didn’t have much chem (in fairness, they were thrown together). I can’t decide which one was more to blame so will point the finger at both. The Oilers do Nurse no favors by gifting him with Nikitin, who tries mightily but cannot get his train to run on time.
  • Laurent Brossoit had a tough night, his career NHL SP went from .964 to .919 in one difficult evening. That was his third NHL game, he will get another chance soon.

https://twitter.com/Devinbyers11/status/706130124463165442

CENTERS, LAST NIGHT

oil c nov 30

  • Leon Draisaitl had a good night—a goal, 67 percent on the dot, four shots, three takeaways. That is some quality. His line had seven high-danger scoring chances.
  • Connor McDavid had two points, was 54 percent on the dot but he also had some troubles without the puck (lost on the first GA). He is 19 and fabulous. Also played extremely well with Taylor Hall, something we may see again.
  • Mark Letestu had a good possession evening, went minus three and all I really remember about his game is that he never looks dangerous at evens. I don’t like his line.
  • Anton Lander centers the other line that didn’t get much done offensively, but at least his line didn’t end up giving up a triple.

WINGERS, LAST NIGHT

oilers f nov 30

  • Hall—Maroon looks like a thing, I like their work. Hall had a goal and seven shots, Maroon two assists and is a capable complementary big winger.
  • Korpikoski—Kassian are part of the Letestu line and Kassian had some chances during the game. Korpikoski did not have a strong night to my eye, but I may be approaching ‘Full Petrell’ in viewing him.
  • Yakupov—Eberle is not having a good run with McDavid, one or both could get booted from the McDavid line soon.
  • Hendricks—Pakarinen played well enough to stay on their current line, I actually like the group okay. Problem is, you likely have to pull Hendricks up to the Letestu line (with, say Kassian) in order to make a reasonable 3line.

musil williams

Musil photo by Mark Williams

MAKING THE CALLS ON THE RFA’S

The Oilers have some decisions to make on upcoming RFA’s, and they enter the spring housecleaning process with little room on the 50-man list. Adding Patrick Maroon and Zack Kassian eases the pressure on developing NHL-calibre physical wingers, and that could mean exits for some forwards bubbling under. The culling of LD probably continues.

  • R Zack Kassian: A lock to be signed at this point.
  • R Iiro Pakarinen: McLellan seems to like him, that can be the difference for the fringe players.
  • L Luke Gazdic: I think he will be in a new town come the fall.
  • D Adam Clendening: Classic tweener, he won’t be back.
  • D Jordan Oesterle: His audition went well, he should return.
  • D David Musil: No recall may be telling.
  • R Tyler Pitlick: Looks good when healthy, but can they count on him?
  • G Niklas Lundstrom: Will not return.
  • L Kale Kessy: Too close to call, he is not close to pushing for NHL employment.

Next year’s RFA’s may also receive a haircut, via trade (Travis Ewanyk, Martin Gernat, etc)

  • C Leon Draisaitl: A big payday on the way, massive part of the future.
  • R Nail Yakupov: His contract represents value. A keeper based on statistical evidence.
  • C Anton Lander: I am stubborn on him, he needs a recovery season.
  • D Griffin Reinhart: Suspect he spends another year in the minors. That bonus portion of his contract isn’t helping his recall options.
  • C Jujhar Khaira: Could be that rare forward drafted by the Oilers, developed in the minors and able to play as a regular in the NHL. Has enjoyed a good year.
  • D Dillon Simpson: All reports have him playing a solid two-way game in the minors, he is developing in a similar fashion to Brandon Davidson. I imagine we will know more a year from now, but so far looks worth a second contract.
  • D Joey Laleggia: Leads Condors rookies in points, and that is significant (as he is a defender). His 23 points in 45 games (.511 points-per-game) compares to Jeff Petry (.585) as a rookie. His defensive acumen is not considered on par with Petry (based on what is available) but he is an interesting prospect.
  • C Bogdan Yakimov: He is back in North America and hopefully here to stay. Massive center has reasonable speed, the question is about offense and we really didn’t get much of an answer due to injury and bolting. His NHLE from the KHL experience (82, 17-9-26) does not suggest we are looking at a top 6F option. That said, he is 6.05, 232 and Chiarelli will value that as the Bruinizing of the Oilers continues.
  • L Mitch Moroz: Young Moroz has played 90 games in his first two pro seasons, suspect they will want to get him in a lot of games next year.
  • G Eetu Laurikainen: I don’t get the feeling he is a substantial prospect, we will see.

Based on where they are as prospects, I would suggest Reinhart, Moroz and Laurikainen are players who could be dealt this summer, either legit trade or add-on ala Ewanyk and Gernat.

THAT CRAZY TRADE

How is that crazy trade doing? Well, Valentin Zykov got traded at the deadline so there is that. Who is doing well this season? Via NHLE:

  1. Bogdan Yakimov 26 points (KHL)
  2. William Carrier 20 points (AHL)
  3. Bogdan Yakimov 14 points (AHL)
  4. Valentin Zykov 13 points (AHL)
  5. Kyle Platzer 12 points (AHL)
  6. Anton Slepyshev 12 points (AHL)
  7. Aidan Muir 8 points (NCAA)
  8. Jackson Houck (Oilers did not sign)

Too soon to know, but I would say it has been a poor year for this trade across the board. Now, playing time could be a factor, but as we approach the final year of the entry-level deal in 2016-17 for Yakimov, the time is now. Hopefully he and Slepyshev come alive a little in the playoffs.

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G,

No worries, I didn’t think it was my comment, but I thought it was possible that your big brain may have taken a speck of an idea and expanded on it.

G Money

Evilas,

Hi E,

I’m referring specifically to the idea of using corsi over the course of the game as a measure of fatigue or fitness. I can’t remember when it was posted (if I could, I’d be able to find it!), but it was sometime in the last three months or so.

If there’s something I should be giving credit for, or if that was you, great, but it sounds like it might have been something different?

€√¥£€^$

G Money,

Hey G,

Not sure if you are thinking about my ask if you were going to incorporate time-based stats with your analysis. It was probably around a year or so when you started posting all your brilliant ideas (before you finally started your website). It may not have been me, but I believe your response was that you liked the idea and you would look into it after you had fully fleshed out your initial analysis….

rickithebear

Gretz
1.37 @ 19
2.77 @ 23

rickithebear

ROY:
A 24 year old needs to be compared against 18 to 24 year season

19 year old needs to be compared to 18 to 19 year seasons.

Modern era
#13: Mcdavid 1.13 PPG
Gretz; lemieux, lindros, 2 Hawerchuk, 2 francis, 2 crosby, stamkos, trottier.

#616: Panarin

So yeah!

If you are so elite.
You should be able to outscore all those younger seasons.

Ryan

G Money:
Sometimes in these discussions I surprise myself with how big a fan I am of hockey and the Oilers – and how much sheer contempt I have for the NHL.

Have you spent much time looking at team shot metric data?

We don’t completely suck.

alice13

Course if it’s nighttime and the fucking thing ain’t painted…. You bang your damn head on it.

RJ2016

If you paint a ladder, you can cover up cracks or defects in the wood, which can lead to a fall from height. It also may affect traction and make it more likely someone will slip while using the ladder. If I was inspecting a site, and saw a painted ladder, it would make me question whether said company was serious about managing workplace risk.

G Money:
jfry,

Moving goalposts?Rather silly metaphor for this situation IMO.

Every league/group/jurisdiction with a history inevitably has on their books stupid and/or anachronistic rules.You cannot legally paint a wooden ladder in Alberta.It’s not legal to whistle in Petrolia.

Most people, if they know about those rules at all, care little because they’re almost never actually invoked or otherwise cause issues.

The stupidity and arrogance of the NHL definition of rookie has been understood for a long time.It just hasn’t really been an issue, because it’s been exceedingly rare for a top notch player to come over to the NHL in their prime with years of pro play elsewhere and have an impact. (Jiri Dopita anyone?)

Unsurprisingly, the last time it really happened is when the Iron Curtain fell.

Now it’s an issue again.Because now we’re comparing a 19 yo player fresh out of junior (plus several other players playing in a non-developmental pro league for the first time) with a 24 yo with over 250 games (prior to the start of this season) in a non-developmental professional league.

All it does is highlight (again – for the first time in ages, but NOT the first time), the stupidity of the NHL’s definition of rookie.

Fortunately,I suspect, or perhaps hope, furjonk has it right – many of the voters recognize and will account for the fact that we’re really comparing a rookie with an experienced pro for ‘rookie of the year’, and will vote accordingly.

Even if McDavid doesn’t get it, I hope the voters are looking at Eichel, Larkin, Domi, or Ghost Bear – all of whom are *actually* rookies, and for that reason IMO more deserving of R.O.Y. over Panarin.

sliderule

Just looking at Avs stats and the forwards do not have one player with a positive Corsi.

How can that be when they have 70 pts and are still faintly in running for wild card.

Iginla has a Corsi that is worse than gasp our whipping boy Korpikoski .

I wonder if oil could bring him home.

I guess they couldn’t fit his 5 million in cap.

Jordan

Caramel Batman: Well that paints a stark picture

This graphic is a perfect justification for:
1 – Why you move Nurse+ for Hamonic. Maybe you lose that deal in 5 years, but you win it today, and you are in position to make several cup runs with the improvement on Defense.
2 – Why you dump Korpikoski at a loss if necessary
3 – Why you cannot keep Mark Fayne on this roster next year

jfry

G Money,

ha!

HT Joe

When searching the internet, I keep finding the statement that the Calder Memorial Trophy is awarded “to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition.”

Dictionary.com defines proficient as “well-advanced or competent in any art, science, or subject; skilled” (Merriam-Webster has the definition as simply “good at doing something” and “well advanced in an art, occupation, or branch of knowledge”).

Is Connor McDavid one of the most advanced centers in the league, right now? Yes. Absolutely yes. Debatably top-5 at this moment. By some scoring metrics, he’s already the very best.
Is Artemi Panarin one of the most advanced wingers in the league, right now? I know he’s damn good, and I would love him on the Oilers, but I would pick many wingers ahead of him right now.

If we’re not considering solely the position, then maybe we mean just generally “proficient at hockey regardless of position”, as in helping the overall team win games.

So how about this… if the Oilers offered to trade McDavid for Panarin at the deadline, with the understanding that the players would be traded back again in the offseason, is anyone going to argue that the Blackhawks wouldn’t take the trade to have McDavid as a rental down the stretch and into the playoffs?

EDIT Please also assume that the Oilers retain and eat salary so it doesn’t become a salary cap issue… the Calder cup shouldn’t consider salary cap but only the play of the player.

G Money

Sometimes in these discussions I surprise myself with how big a fan I am of hockey and the Oilers – and how much sheer contempt I have for the NHL.

G Money

jfry,

Not sure if you know this, but as part of its definition of rookie and Calder eligibility, the NHL itself ALREADY defines which leagues are pro leagues and which are developmental leagues.

The problem is that ALL leagues are developmental according to the NHL.

That’s the incredibly arrogant part. There are NO pro leagues in the world that the NHL doesn’t consider a development league.

The KHL is not a developmental league. It’s a full pro league, with multi-million dollar contracts and players fully capable of playing and even starring in the NHL, who choose not to go (or left, like Kovalchuk).

Once you play 80 (or some other reasonable threshold) in the KHL, you are no longer a rookie. [and that’s how you handle your situation with Yak2]

The AHL IS a development league. Even then, if the NHL set some sort of threshold (160? 240?) for games played, I doubt if anyone would or should bat an eye.

You can also argue about whether or not some of the first tier European leagues are developmental or not, and if so, what the right threshold should be. But at least you can have that argument.

Unless it’s with the NHL. In that case, there is no argument – because all leagues are development leagues. And no thresholds therefore apply.

What’s even more bizarre is that the NHL *even has a rookie threshold standard for itself*.

Bizarre. Stupid. Arrogant.

And that stupidity and arrogance – and please, don’t for a moment tell me that this is the ONLY instance in which the league is stupid and arrogant, they are experts in that area – is what’s causing this rather stupid and pointless situation with the Calder.

Derek

Caramel Batman:
G Money,

I don’t know how reliable war-on-ice’s scoring chance data is, but by that metric Hall is having an excellent season considering how poor his team is.

Hall is +60, 53% scoring chance ratio.

It also shows how top heavy the Oilers are.The Hall line (Draisatl and Purcell), McDavid, Eberle, and Davidson are the only ones in the positive.

You know who is last.

Bookjie? I thought everyone wanted to fuck that guy.

jfry

G Money,

so let’s go back to my earlier point then … how is the AHL games played different than KHL games played. last year mark stone was a 23 ROY candidate with two full seasons of AHL experience. how about kuznetsov — he was a drafted russian that washington let cool and he came over as a 22 yo. klefbom played 6 “pro” seasons before he was in the NHL as a rookie as a 21yo.

i guess i just don’t understand how/what we’re defining as a pro league, because it appears that we’re defining the AHL as “development” league even though they’re pros.

if yakimov makes the team next year he’ll be considered a rookie, yet he’s played in 3 different professional leagues in the last 3 years.

the NCAA doesn’t consider the CHL an amateur league.

so i feel like this discussion is less about “if you’ve played pro” than “how old are you?”.

and if that’s the case, we’re saying that development is a straight line and we should only be looking at one or two people a year who are under 20?

if that’s the case…let’s just make a different award, that’s similar to the nba’s sixth man of the year. but call it “best up and comer”.

jfry:
NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

you don’t think the small movement underfoot is a canadian broadcaster trying to get interest in canada? creating content for his user? as much as we all love friedman for his insider info, his job is to generate clicks in canada. all things connor for all sports networks in canada seems to be the direction given by those up top since middle of last summer…and for good reason.

if you do some google searches for different countries about nhl rookie of the year, you’ll find some interesting perspectives that aren’t connor and canada-centric. from some very great broadcasters and minds…

anyhow, i’ll let this go.

Me, too. I don’t think Friedman is a shrill for some cause. He tells it like it is. Think he is past generating clicks at this point.

G Money

jfry,

Moving goalposts? Rather silly metaphor for this situation IMO.

Every league/group/jurisdiction with a history inevitably has on their books stupid and/or anachronistic rules. You cannot legally paint a wooden ladder in Alberta. It’s not legal to whistle in Petrolia.

Most people, if they know about those rules at all, care little because they’re almost never actually invoked or otherwise cause issues.

The stupidity and arrogance of the NHL definition of rookie has been understood for a long time. It just hasn’t really been an issue, because it’s been exceedingly rare for a top notch player to come over to the NHL in their prime with years of pro play elsewhere and have an impact. (Jiri Dopita anyone?)

Unsurprisingly, the last time it really happened is when the Iron Curtain fell.

Now it’s an issue again. Because now we’re comparing a 19 yo player fresh out of junior (plus several other players playing in a non-developmental pro league for the first time) with a 24 yo with over 250 games (prior to the start of this season) in a non-developmental professional league.

All it does is highlight (again – for the first time in ages, but NOT the first time), the stupidity of the NHL’s definition of rookie.

Fortunately, I suspect, or perhaps hope, furjonk 🙂 has it right – many of the voters recognize and will account for the fact that we’re really comparing a rookie with an experienced pro for ‘rookie of the year’, and will vote accordingly.

Even if McDavid doesn’t get it, I hope the voters are looking at Eichel, Larkin, Domi, or Ghost Bear – all of whom are *actually* rookies, and for that reason IMO more deserving of R.O.Y. over Panarin.

jfry

Ribs:
I’ll get worked up about the Calder every now and then, and then I remember that the NHL player awards are all kinds of silly and it’s pretty pointless to care about them.

truth!

it’s all about who drafts first!!!! 😉

jfry

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

you don’t think the small movement underfoot is a canadian broadcaster trying to get interest in canada? creating content for his user? as much as we all love friedman for his insider info, his job is to generate clicks in canada. all things connor for all sports networks in canada seems to be the direction given by those up top since middle of last summer…and for good reason.

if you do some google searches for different countries about nhl rookie of the year, you’ll find some interesting perspectives that aren’t connor and canada-centric. from some very great broadcasters and minds…

anyhow, i’ll let this go.

Ribs

I’ll get worked up about the Calder every now and then, and then I remember that the NHL player awards are all kinds of silly and it’s pretty pointless to care about them.

jfry

Norman Greenbaum,

great contribution to the discussion. thanks.

if you’ve been here long enough you’d know that using a hashtag is a bit of an inside joke.

Hold on a second.
Not saying people SHOULD dock Panarin because by the NHL rule book he qualifies. What I am saying is Friedman and others in the media have already said there are some voters who are looking at his pro experience.

In baseball you may recall Ichiro came over and won ROY and MVP. That caused some backlash to the extent that some voters left Hideki Matsui off their ballot ENTIRELY because they decided to apply their own rules to what a rookie is. Matsui lost the ROY as a result of those zero votes. Had he had second place votes instead he would have won.

Anyway, Panarin deserves the Calder if you ask me. But we could very well see a late push boosting Ghost and McDavid.

We aren’t the ones moving the goal posts. Hash tag away all you want, but it doesn’t change the small movement under foot. Does it cost Panarin in the end? We will see. I don’t think it will unless voters make up their own rules a la Matsui and leave him off their ballots entirely. I doubt that happens and think he will win.

Jethro Tull

jfry: how about we let the NHL define it and just stick with that.
#dfs #goalPostsMoving

#strawman #arguinglostcauses #connorsbetter #gratuitoushashtagsusedoutsideoftwitterarefuckingannoying

sliderule

You notice the bottom six forwards who do most of the PK have the oilers at 16 th in the NHL.

The top six forwards which some say never trade even for a defenceman have the oiler pp at a tie for 25 th.

The bottom six is not the problem and neither is the top six but in order to correct the defence something has to give.

frjohnk

jfry:
so we’re all just upset with how “rookie” is defined? the definition of rookie hasn’t really changed since makarov, i believe?

it’s like it’s dfs saturday around here…. goal posts moving all over the place!!!

there’s a clear definition of what the NHL considers a rookie. and panarin is a run away leader now, given that definition.

if we’re voting for best 19yo…sure connor wins in a walk…if we’re talking fantasy player swapping (which some are), then yeah, oilers win the cup!!! plan the parade!

the NHL defines rookie in a very clear fashion. panarin fits. i get all the other stuff (age and leagues), but it doesn’t really matter because it’s fantasy. we’re always arguing about working the cap to it’s best advantage (let euros fully bake over there) then bringing them over when they are ready and cheap. the khl has even suggested that this approach be taken (with the president suggesting that soshnikov should have waited two years to come over instead of playing in the AHL).

i don’t know…chicago used europe the absolute best way possible, just like they’ve been using NCAA players the best way possible…

i get the desire to change the definition of rookie, but it is what it is.

#dfs #goalPostsMoving

Well, guys who do the voting like Friedman have mentioned the exact same things being pointed out here
-that Panarin may get docked in Calder voting because he is older, has played in the KHL, and is playing with Kane

Voters will take that into account.

If we look at the list of winners since the lockout year, the oldest guy to win it was Steve Mason at the old age of 21 in 09.

If Panarin wins, Id have no problem because I think he is a very good player and would be very deserving.

But if Ghost and McDavid keep up their pace, they both have good arguments in winning ROY as well.

jfry

so we’re all just upset with how “rookie” is defined? the definition of rookie hasn’t really changed since makarov, i believe?

it’s like it’s dfs saturday around here…. goal posts moving all over the place!!!

there’s a clear definition of what the NHL considers a rookie. and panarin is a run away leader now, given that definition.

if we’re voting for best 19yo…sure connor wins in a walk…if we’re talking fantasy player swapping (which some are), then yeah, oilers win the cup!!! plan the parade!

the NHL defines rookie in a very clear fashion. panarin fits. i get all the other stuff (age and leagues), but it doesn’t really matter because it’s fantasy. we’re always arguing about working the cap to it’s best advantage (let euros fully bake over there) then bringing them over when they are ready and cheap. the khl has even suggested that this approach be taken (with the president suggesting that soshnikov should have waited two years to come over instead of playing in the AHL).

i don’t know…chicago used europe the absolute best way possible, just like they’ve been using NCAA players the best way possible…

i get the desire to change the definition of rookie, but it is what it is.

a lot of europeans start playing pro hockey at 16 in the KHL/SHL/ETC…should they all be disqualified? klefbomb had a lot of pro games under his belt before the NHL, for instance. and why do we consider the khl different than the ahl? the ahl is a pro league. what if you played 300 ahl games and then won rookie of the year as a 24 yo? would that person not be a rookie in our eyes?

how about we let the NHL define it and just stick with that.

#dfs #goalPostsMoving

stephen sheps

G Money:
Caramel Batman,

Not sure if you’ve seen my player dashboards, but you can see all the Oilers (as of a couple of games ago) over the course of the entire season on a single page here: http://i.imgur.com/Iz4Ct2Z.png

1) I love this chart – not necessarily the results that the chart displays but the ability to instantly visualize what is going on with the team and the individual players. I like seeing the daily charts but the cumulative ones are even better.
2) Brandon Davidson is an NHL player, full stop. I’ve been cheering like hell for him (especially post cancer – young survivor solidarity and all that) but the chart shows he’s been the most consistent (and consistently good) D-man the entire season and it doesn’t matter who he’s paired with.
3) Caramel Batman, – yup, you’re right the team is extremely top heavy, but man alive are those top players performing well by these metrics.
4) Yak still has nice numbers and colours on the chart despite his deployment with dregs. Good for Yak.

And now back to the grading pile…

prairieschooner

There are probably many ways to determine Calder winner
Didn’t RNH lose to Landescog despite putting up almost equal points in significantly less games
Wasn’t Gretzy shafted because of his WHA experience and an older Russian “amateur” won it

Frank the dog

Kmart99:
I’m in Hunter’s contest at 74 pts for the Oil this season.I’m still looking good from here.

You and me both apparently. For a while I thought we were put of I in the worst possible way.

jonrmcleod

Bakersfield Condors @Condors
CONDORS GOAL!!!! @GriffinReinhart from @Bobbyklink & @Dmusil6. It’s 1-0 with 11 min. left. 9-game point streak for #TheColonel.

Woodguy

GCW_69: Sleppy still buried behind two guy with no realistic future with the team though.And if they aren’t going to sign Winquist putting him ahead of Yak 2 going forward is questionable.

Should be:

Klinkhammer – Khaira – Slepyshev
Hamilton – Yakimov – Miller
Ford – Winquist – Chase
Moroz – Pitlick – Kessy

Might even flip Chase and Miller if development is the priority.

I’m on the same page.

Most of the ice time should go to the prospects including PP and PK to some extent.

Ford-Miller were getting all the cherry minutes earlier in the year.

Baby steps.

Gayfish

admiralmark: Question: How do you think McDavid would of looked at this point with Kane on his wing and Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson… feeding him pucks?

Also rule that had Gretzky omitted from Calder consideration was any player with 25 or more games in the WHA. Panarin has over 250 KHL games. That’s not a rookie.

Probably similar to playing with the oilers forwards. Don’t pretend like hall and eberle, yakupov, pouliot are chopped liver.

G Money

delooper,

Yeah, I’m dabbling in the interactive libraries, that’s definitely the way of the future … but no concrete plans for the moment, got a bunch more todos on my basic analysis work first.

I still get these ‘blown away’ moments with Python and the libraries and just how many and how powerful they are.

The ‘Coursi’ charts I posted earlier – I wrote a draft version of them a while back where I essentially collect and resample the data (to one minute buckets and to periods). Now that I’m using the charts for a little more formal reason, I went back to the libraries and … naturally, resampling is already part of the pandas library I already use.

Just had to figure out how to use the timeindex capabilities, and presto, fifty lines of code became … one.

Woodguy

McSorley33:
Woodguy,

Sadist….

I will enjoy that scene as well.

The word is that they’ll play him on the 3rd pair.

I always thought he should be there and he may flourish as Jultzing costs the team less in that spot.

delooper

One of the best things about teaching this course about doing mathematics in Python is I get to refresh my skills and find out about all the latest libraries. plot.ly is really nice. Soon vispy will be great, too. It’s still a little primitive now but it’s a great little OOPed OpenGL interface. It’s interesting to see there’s decent CUDA interfaces for Linux now, as well.

I might try to make some of your graphics more interactive in the near future, GMoney. There’s a few really convenient libraries for making 2d plots with hover-text, like bokeh. mpld3 might be a good way to go, as well.

I hope to get my students to use G Money’s code later this semester but I’m still building their confidence up on basic things, for now.

Cassandra

Top 10 D by relScoringchance%

Hedman
Suter
Campbell
Brendan Smith
Lindholm
OEL
Stralman
Manson
Spurgeon
Ellis

Then you have guys like Byfuglien, Keith, Vlasic, Doughty and surprises like MIke Weber (let’s get him, why not?)

Petry, Marincin, and Davidson are all on the next page (21-40) along with Hamonic, Karlsson, Klingberg, Trouba, Brodie etc.

I don’t think anyone is ever going to convince me that Marincin can’t play.

Of the names bantered about Hamonic is the only one who really rates. Tyson Barrie is also there on the third page (41-60)

admiralmark

jfry:

Panarin plays all the games and has helped make one of the best players in the world better. And as a rookie is in the top fifteen in scoring. Sure ghost is good and mcdavid will be great, but the notion that there should be a debate about who is the best rookie through this whole season is insane. This kid is elite and his rookie season is probably the best one since Kane.

Question: How do you think McDavid would of looked at this point with Kane on his wing and Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson… feeding him pucks?

Also rule that had Gretzky omitted from Calder consideration was any player with 25 or more games in the WHA. Panarin has over 250 KHL games. That’s not a rookie.

Cassandra

G Money:
Caramel Batman,

No question.I like the WOI scoring chance data – like all the metrics, it has its own particular strengths and weaknesses.

Not sure if you’ve seen my player dashboards, but you can see all the Oilers (as of a couple of games ago) over the course of the entire season on a single page here: http://i.imgur.com/Iz4Ct2Z.png

Well that paints a stark picture

prairieschooner

Jultz hasn’t played because when the Pens asked his best position he told them he was the Oilers #1 Lollygager
Pens are still looking over their roster positions ?

Cassandra

Hamonic is 51.5% and +32, which is good considering his competition and team
Vatanen is only 50% (on a team that is dominant) so not that good.
Demers is 55%, but on a better team than the Islanders
Shattenkirk is also 50% but on a worse team, the Blues aren’t dominant by this metric.

None of these guys stand out as truly dominant D. The leaderboard is filled with guys who play together on good teams. Hedman is best at 59%, Doughty is 57%

It’s fun to find the outlier. That would be Sean Couturier and Nino Neidereiter.

It’s fun to play around with it. It passes the smell test for me.

Gayfish

Connor is in the running for best player in the world, and only the oilers curse is keeping him out of the calder race. I will say right now that at the world cup, he will be dubbed the best player, much like crosby in 2010. I also think Nuge will get his due sometime soon. Say olympics. It took awhile for dasysuk and bergeron to get their due.

G Money

delooper,

Slick.

frjohnk

jfry:
I get that we all love Connor, but the hyperbole in the comments here surrounding panarin is insane.

Sure he’s a little older and a dreaded Russian, but he’s an amazing player who would look good away from Kane as well. He has a history of elite production in the second best league and is helping Kane have a season no one ever imagined Kane should have. I know we all think patty is amazing but he’s twenty points above any of his totals from the last three years and already tied his career high in points. Kane is having a year that is so far out of his expected range of performance, that you have to start to ask, why?
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=96554

And panarin is the answer. The breadman just gets no respect.his last three seasons have been elite in two different leagues. He’s helping Kane zoom as much as the reverse is happening.
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=117198

When I hear people say he’s a hitch hiker, it just blows my mind.

Panarin plays all the games and has helped make one of the best players in the world better. And as a rookie is in the top fifteen in scoring. Sure ghost is good and mcdavid will be great, but the notion that there should be a debate about who is the best rookie through this whole season is insane. This kid is elite and his rookie season is probably the best one since Kane.

Sometimes I feel like being Russian means this board gets to act a touch like it’s still the cold war.

While we’re at it lets give the vezina to price because no matter what he’s the best in the world regardless that he’s missed the whole season. Actually let’s give him MVP because it’s obvious that he was more valuable to his team than any other player!!!! Who cares if you contribute for a whole season, because 82 games doesn’t mean anything in hockey.

While we’re at it lets tar and feather yak!

Nobody has said “Panarin should not get the Calder cause he is Russian”

What people have said is this

Because
-Panarin is older than most rookies ( 24 years old)

-Has played professional for 5 full seasons before this one in the worlds 2nd best league

-He is playing on one of the top teams, getting loads of ice time with the best players.

Pananrin will be docked votes for the Calder because of these factors.

He is not getting knocked because he is Russian. Thats crazy.

Something I found funny. When Panarin first laced them up in the KHL, McDavid was just leaving atom hockey

G Money

Caramel Batman,

No question. I like the WOI scoring chance data – like all the metrics, it has its own particular strengths and weaknesses.

Not sure if you’ve seen my player dashboards, but you can see all the Oilers (as of a couple of games ago) over the course of the entire season on a single page here: http://i.imgur.com/Iz4Ct2Z.png

delooper

Anyone know who this is, is there a blog associated with it?

https://plot.ly/~ReadtheBox/14/where-does-the-money-go-nhl-spending-breakdown-team-position/

It’s on a nice site for hosting interactive graphics that I’ve been playing with recently.

Cassandra

G Money,

I don’t know how reliable war-on-ice’s scoring chance data is, but by that metric Hall is having an excellent season considering how poor his team is.

Hall is +60, 53% scoring chance ratio.

It also shows how top heavy the Oilers are. The Hall line (Draisatl and Purcell), McDavid, Eberle, and Davidson are the only ones in the positive.

You know who is last.