SWEET AND DANDY
Connor McDavid posted two more points last night, drilling opponents like no other since the All-Star break. Last night, the team had a tough outing in Columbus, but the road is long and screw you, schedule maker. The club has been solid (last night aside) so it’s on to Portage and Main and let’s see action.
Connor McDavid's consistently produced since February 2, leads some big names in scoring during the span since then pic.twitter.com/EzFEc3x5Jj
— StatsCentre (@StatsCentre) March 5, 2016
WHEATFIELD SOUL, YEAR OVER YEAR
- Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
- Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
- Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
- Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
- Oilers in December 2014: 2-8-4
- Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1
- Oilers in January 2015: 5-7-1
- Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2
- Oilers in February 2015: 5-6-1
- Oilers in February 2016: 4-8-2
- Oilers in March 2015: 5-6-3
- Oilers in March 2016: 2-1-0
- Oilers after 67 in 2014-15: 18-38-11, 47 points (-75 GD)
- Oilers after 67 in 2015-16: 25-35-7, 57 points (-35 GD)
I can’t get too upset about the L last night, Edmonton had a dandy start to the week and climbed out of their doldrums smartly. Edmonton needs five points to reach last season’s total, and if they match the Nelson Oilers from here to the end of the line, Edmonton would finish 31-41-10, 72 points. That seems a reasonable goal (although wildly disappointing based on pre-season conversations).
INDIVIDUAL HIGH-DANGER SCORING CHANCES
- Four: Taylor Hall
- Three: Leon Draisaitl, Zack Kassian
- Two: Iiro Pakarinen
- One: Connor McDavid, Nail Yakupov, Jordan Eberle
DEFENSE LAST NIGHT
- Davidson—Pardy had monster possession numbers, but Pardy was not strong with the puck on his stick in the defensive zone and had some delay in decision-making. Davidson got a dash two for being on the ice at the same time, but I thought he played well overall in what was a chaotic game. His point shot is pretty damned good, and his decisions are consistently good even if they don’t always work out.
- Sekera—Fayne looked cool, calm and collected to my eye, Sekera picking up two assists and both men making the smart play most of the time. It seems there is very little chance Fayne returns—he is too expensive for third pairing and one suspects Todd McLellan wants more mobility in his top four—but this is a pretty nice pairing.
- Nurse—Nikitin were in the news early and often, rarely for good reasons. Coverage issues for both were rife and they didn’t have much chem (in fairness, they were thrown together). I can’t decide which one was more to blame so will point the finger at both. The Oilers do Nurse no favors by gifting him with Nikitin, who tries mightily but cannot get his train to run on time.
- Laurent Brossoit had a tough night, his career NHL SP went from .964 to .919 in one difficult evening. That was his third NHL game, he will get another chance soon.
Points Through 29 Career Games:
Wayne Gretzky 45
Mario Lemieux 41#Caps Ovechkin 34#Pens Malkin 33#Oilers McDavid 32#Pens Crosby 30— Devin Byers (@Devinbyers11) March 5, 2016
CENTERS, LAST NIGHT
- Leon Draisaitl had a good night—a goal, 67 percent on the dot, four shots, three takeaways. That is some quality. His line had seven high-danger scoring chances.
- Connor McDavid had two points, was 54 percent on the dot but he also had some troubles without the puck (lost on the first GA). He is 19 and fabulous. Also played extremely well with Taylor Hall, something we may see again.
- Mark Letestu had a good possession evening, went minus three and all I really remember about his game is that he never looks dangerous at evens. I don’t like his line.
- Anton Lander centers the other line that didn’t get much done offensively, but at least his line didn’t end up giving up a triple.
WINGERS, LAST NIGHT
- Hall—Maroon looks like a thing, I like their work. Hall had a goal and seven shots, Maroon two assists and is a capable complementary big winger.
- Korpikoski—Kassian are part of the Letestu line and Kassian had some chances during the game. Korpikoski did not have a strong night to my eye, but I may be approaching ‘Full Petrell’ in viewing him.
- Yakupov—Eberle is not having a good run with McDavid, one or both could get booted from the McDavid line soon.
- Hendricks—Pakarinen played well enough to stay on their current line, I actually like the group okay. Problem is, you likely have to pull Hendricks up to the Letestu line (with, say Kassian) in order to make a reasonable 3line.
Musil photo by Mark Williams
MAKING THE CALLS ON THE RFA’S
The Oilers have some decisions to make on upcoming RFA’s, and they enter the spring housecleaning process with little room on the 50-man list. Adding Patrick Maroon and Zack Kassian eases the pressure on developing NHL-calibre physical wingers, and that could mean exits for some forwards bubbling under. The culling of LD probably continues.
- R Zack Kassian: A lock to be signed at this point.
- R Iiro Pakarinen: McLellan seems to like him, that can be the difference for the fringe players.
- L Luke Gazdic: I think he will be in a new town come the fall.
- D Adam Clendening: Classic tweener, he won’t be back.
- D Jordan Oesterle: His audition went well, he should return.
- D David Musil: No recall may be telling.
- R Tyler Pitlick: Looks good when healthy, but can they count on him?
- G Niklas Lundstrom: Will not return.
- L Kale Kessy: Too close to call, he is not close to pushing for NHL employment.
Next year’s RFA’s may also receive a haircut, via trade (Travis Ewanyk, Martin Gernat, etc)
- C Leon Draisaitl: A big payday on the way, massive part of the future.
- R Nail Yakupov: His contract represents value. A keeper based on statistical evidence.
- C Anton Lander: I am stubborn on him, he needs a recovery season.
- D Griffin Reinhart: Suspect he spends another year in the minors. That bonus portion of his contract isn’t helping his recall options.
- C Jujhar Khaira: Could be that rare forward drafted by the Oilers, developed in the minors and able to play as a regular in the NHL. Has enjoyed a good year.
- D Dillon Simpson: All reports have him playing a solid two-way game in the minors, he is developing in a similar fashion to Brandon Davidson. I imagine we will know more a year from now, but so far looks worth a second contract.
- D Joey Laleggia: Leads Condors rookies in points, and that is significant (as he is a defender). His 23 points in 45 games (.511 points-per-game) compares to Jeff Petry (.585) as a rookie. His defensive acumen is not considered on par with Petry (based on what is available) but he is an interesting prospect.
- C Bogdan Yakimov: He is back in North America and hopefully here to stay. Massive center has reasonable speed, the question is about offense and we really didn’t get much of an answer due to injury and bolting. His NHLE from the KHL experience (82, 17-9-26) does not suggest we are looking at a top 6F option. That said, he is 6.05, 232 and Chiarelli will value that as the Bruinizing of the Oilers continues.
- L Mitch Moroz: Young Moroz has played 90 games in his first two pro seasons, suspect they will want to get him in a lot of games next year.
- G Eetu Laurikainen: I don’t get the feeling he is a substantial prospect, we will see.
Based on where they are as prospects, I would suggest Reinhart, Moroz and Laurikainen are players who could be dealt this summer, either legit trade or add-on ala Ewanyk and Gernat.
THAT CRAZY TRADE
How is that crazy trade doing? Well, Valentin Zykov got traded at the deadline so there is that. Who is doing well this season? Via NHLE:
- Bogdan Yakimov 26 points (KHL)
- William Carrier 20 points (AHL)
- Bogdan Yakimov 14 points (AHL)
- Valentin Zykov 13 points (AHL)
- Kyle Platzer 12 points (AHL)
- Anton Slepyshev 12 points (AHL)
- Aidan Muir 8 points (NCAA)
- Jackson Houck (Oilers did not sign)
Too soon to know, but I would say it has been a poor year for this trade across the board. Now, playing time could be a factor, but as we approach the final year of the entry-level deal in 2016-17 for Yakimov, the time is now. Hopefully he and Slepyshev come alive a little in the playoffs.
So is NN up in the bigs so that Oesterle can help the Condors into the playoffs while 86 is kept out of the way?
I’m wondering whether “development” is done with playoff races or with NHL competition.
Tier 1 fans get to pay to watch their team get 86ed. What a privilege…
I’m in Hunter’s contest at 74 pts for the Oil this season. I’m still looking good from here.
I like seeing that goal differential compared to last year starting to creep back up. I recall Marc posting something about how Chicago, Pittsburgh, and other teams that turned the corner making huge strides in that specific area before making the leap into respectability.
Dare to dream, people!! (I am also now sucked into another offseason of delusion about the Oilers’ chances).
Agreed. Along with improving possession numbers and a spike in SP (we entered last summer looking for help at D and G), it is a good sign.
I was thinking along the same lines: a couple less injuries, some weak links upgraded earlier, and the record in 1 goal games swings positive in a hurry.
I’m curious to see where in the Condor line up E. Bear, C. Jones, and Ziyat Paigin might slot next year.
Does Paigin even come over?
Does the organization give Bear and Jones their at bats? Or do they sit at the bottom behind all four of Musil, Simpson, Laleggia, Reinhart, and Oesterle?
Maybe all three stay in their current leagues for one more year?
When RNH comes back, Id hope to see
Hall-McDavid ( face the toughs)
RNH-Ebs ( face the toughs)
Drai-Yak ( soft comp)
fill in Kassian, Maroon and 3rd winger ( too bad Poo is out) in the top 9.
On another note, those damn injuries helped sewer the season for us. ( Lack of balance is the number 1 reason) but man, those injuries.
From man games lost website
1.The New Jersey devils (272), Edmonton Oilers (266), Buffalo Sabres (262) have suffered the most man-games lost to injury
2.Edmonton (1st) and the Detroit Red Wings (2nd) face the greatest cumulative impact of injured forwards or defensemen by the IIT-skater metric
4.The greatest injury impact for a lost defenseman (by IIT-skater metric) is Oscar Klefbom
5.For forwards, Connor McDavid’s 37 games injured leads all IIT-skater metrics for forwards
Injuries are definitely a factor, but they don’t tell the whole story. Good teams have depth to replace their good players when they go down. Oilers do not have much depth, so when their best defenseman and a number of the best forwards go down, NHL/AHL tweeners are put into the lineup. And many players end up playing too many minutes for their talent level ( Letestu, Schultz, Nurse for example.
Last year I hoped this year we would get league average goaltending this year. We can check that box off.
Next year, I hope for league average injuries.
frjohnk,
I hope for league average scoring from our back end.
Paigin is signed for another year, and Bear/Jones et cetera also have a year to go in their junior careers.
Korpikoski did not have a strong night to my eye, but I may be approaching ‘Full Petrell’ in viewing him.
Hey, Hey, Hey, Hold on a minute there fella. 28 was chosen as one of the Three Stars in a game this very week.
* * * * *
Heard the guy that follows you on 1260, Dave?, yesterday. Heard part of the trade deadline show too.
A guy there, and again yesterday, said the Oilers don’t care about size, don’t understand its importance, blah blah blah blah…
Draft — Round — Player — Drafted From — GP
2014 Entry — 1 — Leon Draisaitl — Prince Albert Raiders [WHL] — 94
2014 Entry — 5 — Liam Coughlin — Vernon Vipers [BCHL] —
2013 Entry — 3 — Bogdan Yakimov — Nizhnekamsk Jrs. (Russia) — 1
2013 Entry — 3 — Anton Slepyshev — Ufa Salavat Yulayev [KHL] — 11
2013 Entry — 4 — Aidan Muir — Victory Honda Midget (MWEHL) —
2012 Entry — 2 — Mitch Moroz — Edmonton Oil Kings [WHL] —
2012 Entry — 3 — Jujhar Khaira — Prince George Spruce Kings [BCHL] — 15
2012 Entry — 6 — John McCarron — Cornell University [ECAC] —
2011 Entry — 3 — Travis Ewanyk — Edmonton Oil Kings [WHL] —
2010 Entry — 2 — Tyler Pitlick — Minnesota State U – Mankato [WCHA] — 27
2010 Entry — 2 — Curtis Hamilton — Saskatoon Blades [WHL] — 1
2010 Entry — 3 — Ryan Martindale — Ottawa 67’s [OHL] —
2010 Entry — 6 — Drew Czerwonka — Kootenay Ice [WHL] —
2009 Entry — 3 — Cameron Abney — Everett Silvertips [WHL] —
2004 Entry — 2 — Geoff Paukovich — US National Under 18 Team —
2003 Entry — 2 — Colin McDonald — New England Jr. Coyotes (EJHL) — 145
2003 Entry — 2 — Jean-Francois Jacques — Baie-Comeau Drakkar [QMJHL] — 166
2003 Entry — 3 — Zack Stortini — Sudbury Wolves [OHL] — 257
2003 Entry — 9 — Troy Bodie — Kelowna Rockets [WHL] — 159
2002 Entry — 3 — Brock Radunske — Michigan State University [CCHA] —
2002 Entry — 7 — Jean-Francois Dufort — Cape Breton Screaming Eagles [QMJHL] —
2002 Entry — 7 — Patrick Murphy — Newmarket Hurricanes [OPJHL] —
2001 Entry — 2 — Ed Caron — Phillips-Exeter Academy (N.H.) —
2001 Entry — 5 — Jake Brenk — Breck School (Minn.) —
2001 Entry — 9 — Shay Stephenson — Red Deer Rebels [WHL] — 2
2000 Entry — 1 — Alexei Mikhnov — Yaroslavl Torpedo [Russia] — 2
2000 Entry — 2 — Brad Winchester — U. of Wisconsin [WCHA] — 390
2000 Entry — 6 — Shaun Norrie — Calgary Hitmen [WHL] —
2000 Entry — 7 — Joe Cullen — Colorado College [WCHA] —
Anyone know why Yak2 came back? Seems odd. Curious on the story.
1. KHL season was over, his team knocked out of play-offs
2. Probably told he wasn’t in Russia’s WHC plans
Sam Bennett is the only rookie to score 4 goals in a game this season, so he should be considered a strong candidate for ROY. #accordingtoHrudey
I bet if someone told Connor this the very next game there would be blood and someone would win that $1M Safeway gives out.
Yakupov – McDavid – Eberle
Hall – RNH – DrIasaitl
Maroon – Khaira – Kassian
Hendricks – Yakiimov- Letestu
Klefbom – Davidson
Sekera – Fayne
Nurse – Pardy/Gryba
Talbot- LB
for a few games please
well, just before the 4 goal game, Bennett had 1 point ( an assist) in 18 games. Definitely a ROY candidate……for the Flames 🙂
All kidding aside, he is a good player, and should break the top 10 in rookie voting.
But as of now, it’s basically down to 3 guys. McDavid, Ghost and Panarin. If McDavid wins ROM for March, that will be 3 months he won it and I bet he takes home the Calder.
Ghost is having a remarkable year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win. Panarin will have some votes go against him because old and Russian and Kane’s line. Ghost will get some votes because of his scoring which is extremely impressive for a rookie D. Connor is clearly the best rookie of the group by any measure but he only played half the games. Good Canadian boy though… born a stones throw from the Big Smoke.
Tough to call how it goes down. It doesn’t change one damn thing though. Mcdavid is the best rookie and it’s not close.
Not. Close.
YUP.
I’ve been particularly lazy in posting the CMDRE contest updates since his injury pretty much derailed 90% of the entrants…. but here’s where everyone is at in case you were still anxious to get that Signed MA Bergeron Oil Drop jersey. ***odds of winning>0%
CRANKY 35G 50A 85PTS
BOOKIJE 24G 52A 76PTS
UNWASHED OILFAN 23G 48A 71PTS
REVOLVED 18G 45A 63PTS***
KAPTAIN VIKARIOUS 33G 44A 77PTS
OIL2OILERS 40G 57A 97PTS
WOODGUY 23G 55A 78PTS
PRAIRIE OIL 28G 50A 78PTS
MCSORLEY33 19G 49A 68PTS
REMLAP 24G 49A 73PTS
SAYITAIN’TSO, GRETZ 25G 47A 72PTS
KEVIN 40G 60A 100PTS
MIKKOANDMAL 22G 53A 75PTS
NYCOIL GMBP 28G 73A 101PTS
106 AND 106 25G 50A 75PTS
COMMONFAN14 41G 53A 94PTS
TEAMBLUE 21G 47A 68PTS
HOT EIRE 29G 49A 78PTS
G MONEY 20G 52A 72PTS
SNOWMAN 19G 64A 83PTS
RIBS 38G 48A 86PTS
CZAR 23G 46A 69PTS
THEGREATMCMUTATO MOST
LEWIS GRANT 17G 40A 57PTS***
KRIS11 0G 12356A 12356PTS
WELL OILED AND ENTHUSIASTIC 27G 55A 82PTS
SUGAR REIJO 43G 57A 100PTS
BRAZILIAN OIL 23G 52A 75PTS
V4ANCE 19G 67A 86PTS
VISHCOSITY 20G 40A 60PTS***
SPOILER 26G 54A 80PTS
JOHNNYROCKET 27G 55A 82PTS
PHRANKLEE 30G 58A 88PTS
LINKFROMHYRULE 27G 50A 77PTS
THEJONRMCLEOD 28G 46A 74PTS
GR8ONE 32G 67A 99PTS
MR_GINGE 22G 36A 58PTS***
YOUNGER OIL 27G 47A 74PTS
KMART99 21G 52A 73PTS
EVILA S 18G 43A 61PTS***
MRSMITTY 32G 52A 84PTS
KINGER_OIL 23G 30A 53PTS***
BAR_QU 25G 50A 75PTS
OHHELL 27G 44A 71PTS
KITCHENER 30G 53A 83PTS
MARC 30G 48A 78PTS
SUNTORY HANZO 32G 40A 72PTS
ZEABS93 25G 46A 71PTS
CHRIS 31A 46A 77PTS
MYDADLAUGHING 34G 52A 86PTS
GERTA RAUSS 22G 41A 63PTS***
HOOPERDAN 26G 42A 68PTS
VANOIL 50G 75A 125PTS
GENJUTSU 35G 45A 80PTS
GOGLIANO 28G 61A 89PTS
BEERME 40G 85A 125PTS
RAY 35G 65A 100PTS
REXLIBRIS 40G 57A 97PTS
ACUMEN 32G 47A 79PTS
BLAINER 29G 51A 80PTS
LEADFARMER 24G 34A 58PTS*****
JOHN CHAMBERS 23G 41A 64PTS
KINGER_OIL had the lowest guess at 53PTS, Connor is on track to get 51pts.
62 entrants… 62 guessed too high.
Although the p/g was pretty accurate. COMMONFAN14 guessed 1.14pts/gp so that could end up being bang on.
I saw something a couple of weeks ago (IHockey Day in Canada, maybe) about the Canadiens implementing a tai chi program, of all things. Their man lost games went down dramatically. Not sure if there is a correlation but I’d think if there is other teams would have tried this as well. Something about getting that extra fraction of flexibility. Happy Saturday everyone. B
GooTube just delivered a one minute video ad of a tubby middle-aged man wandering around on a naked stage all TED-like while emanating dry, industry buzzwords with no immediately apparent final destination.
A galactic swarm of shiny white and black Ford trucks doing an interleaved RCMP musical ride “professional Tie-fighter”-only desert skids on Tatooine would not overcome my disgust that our little Ford truck has no way to direct an air stream at the windshield without engaging the air conditioning, and that in fact all but two settings on the heater dial engage the air conditioning / dehumidifier / gas-mileage depletion unit / service shop revenue generator and the two special settings are not even marked.
Every time I see a truck ad on my screen, I want to punch the air conditioning design engineer right through my screen. Just maybe perhaps they’re fighting an uphill battle with that particular ad content.
But the man with his gastronomic love-patch / butter-blanket reserve militia hanging over his belt had me totally captivated. At least this once. Mark this day. First time in my life I’ve been served up a “relevant” ad. So totally inane and deadly uncool my lemon tree would assume I’m back to watching hour upon hour of CFP videos again (concurrent functional programming).
Just what were they pitching, you hardly dare to ask?
An upcoming O’Reilly Software Architecture Conference in New York city. And I would so totally go, except for 99 other competing priorities.
Too bad they didn’t have a sarcastic synthetic likeness of CFP striding on stage to tell me “I’m here to talk about Concurrent Functional Programming”. It’s only taken the Internet twenty years to serve up my first ever relevant ad. Maybe in another twenty years they’ll level up and also deliver the content through my chosen perceptual filter.
I can just see it. Some aging offspring of a geriatric ward-mate notices my holographic tablet serving up some really weird shit. They lean over, out of curiosity and then blurt out “Holy fuck old man! How did you train your advertar to be so fucking sarcastic!”
———
“Ah, yes, young grasshopper, the work of a lifetime. Now if you’d be so kind as to fetch the pillow that rolled behind my rickety cot a week ago, I’d be eternally grateful.”
“No problem. Hand me the magnetic light scraper.”
“Now you just stop right there—we’re not going to do the entire Marvin bare-handed on the bridge saga, so let’s just skip ahead to ‘You’re thinking along the wrong lines you know, you’re failing to take into account something very basic in the relationship between old people with insufficient savings and modern consumer society.'”
“Uh, so the answer is “none of the above” for everything worth having, and you want me to visit the floor with my own hands?”
“I so know what you mean. By your age I was already deep into ‘what else can I do while I’m down here?’ and then they went ahead and disinvented shoe laces, the rat bastards.”
“Why don’t you just have your pillows tethered like a sensible old goat?”
“Tethered pillows and old people just don’t go well together.”
“You’re making that up.”
“Dare you to ask. Anyway, I’ve got another plan. Just throw everything soft you can find down there, and we’ll use the waterfall method.”
“The ‘waterfall’ method?”
“Oh, yes, it sucks for software, too, but in this case it just involves me doing a 360° roll off the side of the bed and landing on something soft enough that I don’t break my hip.”
“Then you’ll have to toss everything down there back up again.”
“I’ve got time.”
“And you’ll have to get yourself back up on the bed.”
“No worries. Any bed vacant for 16+ hours generates a facility-wide APB.”
“What if all the stuff you throw back up on the bed fools the biometric sensors into thinking your ‘rickety’ cot is occupied.”
“That would be a tragic end, I suppose, but one has to take measured risks to get important things done in this world.”
“You’re just pulling my leg for some kind of sick sympathy, aren’t you, you old geezer?”
“You want a second opinion? Why don’t you consult my advertar?”
“Right. That advertar is all you have left in this world that you truly care about, isn’t it?”
“Sad, really, and almost totally unforeseen. I truly thought I would draw my dying breath before technology reached this pinnacle and yet here it is.”
“I don’t get it-—what do the advertisers actually get from a man who can’t even afford an MLS? Your weekly curfew-compliance bonus coin?”
“Oh, no. I’m just a guinea pig for toxic content they don’t yet dare to serve to anyone viable.”
“Viable?”
“Net-positive eyeball, in the industry lingo.”
“Oh. Why you?”
“Mmmm. Well, uh, that’s a long story and your old-person halitosis exposure badge has already turned the second shade of yellow.”
“Yikes! Gotta run! But here’s what we’ll do. Next visit, about a month from now—maybe two—I’ll bring my own magnetic light scraper and we’ll fetch your pillow then. Deal?”
“Deal! And don’t forget! Or I’ll borrow your father’s holographic tablet the next time he asks me ‘how many sleeping pills again?’ and reprogram his advertar into the fantasy sequence from Pan’s Labyrinth.”
“You bastard! You would too … only it takes years to reprogram someone’s advertar. Everyone knows that.”
Here flits across my craggy, geriatric features a granite gaze of hardened advertar oneupmanship.
“Eeep.”
“And don’t you forget it.”
———
Anyway, I was just on my way to quote the “true love” scene in reference to CMD’s main chance, where Billy Crystal stands in for any number of voters four times as bitter.
It’s so sad that we were robbed of a good chunk of McDavid’s rookie year.
Connor needs 26pts in his final 15games just to reach 60pts. Damn you clavicle!
The very next day
We thought he was a goner
But the Yak came back, he just couldn’t stay away
Kmart99,
– “KINGER_OIL had the lowest guess at 53PTS, Connor is on track to get 51pts.” Can I donate the jersey to charity?! My reasoning was he’d play approx 60 games, lots of PP time, and 3×3 and .9ppg: which is elite for rookie. He will play a few less games than that but is better than I thought
– LT says: “if they match the Nelson Oilers from here to the end of the line, Edmonton would finish 31-41-10, 72 points”. Also my prediction level, (or maybe I was 71). Figured 10 point improvement, based on the D we had, and work in progress G you get that bump.
– I get flack for being a downer often, but I’m a long-term fan and realist, removed from the hype.
– 1-800_KINGEROIL will be up next year and for $1.50 a call you can get my tips on the Hunter and KMart prediction games.
– That made my day, now off for some southern ontario skiing on bunny hillls with my son!
Meow?
frjohnk,
Injuries are certainly a factor.
I think players slotted in over their heads is another.
Schulz too many minutes. Nurse should be in the AHL. Drai is burning out fast.
Still no goddamn balance.
Fog of Warts,
“Then you’ll have to toss everything down there back up again.”
“I’ve got time.”
Love it.
Doug Adams may raise an eyebrow if he had an eyebrow to raise.
kinger_OIL,
– 1-800_KINGEROIL will be up next year and for $1.50 a call you can get my tips on the Hunter and KMart prediction games.
Will you have Nurse on the opening night roster?
Leaders in the CMDRE contest:
CHIARELLI————–20G 20A 40PTS
KINGER_OIL————-23G 30A 53PTS
LEWIS GRANT———-17G 40A 57PTS
MR_GINGE—————22G 36A 58PTS
LEADFARMER———-24G 34A 58PTS
VISHCOSITY————-20G 40A 60PTS
EVILA S——————–18G 43A 61PTS
REVOLVED—————18G 45A 63PTS
GERTA RAUSS———-22G 41A 63PTS
JOHN CHAMBERS—–23G 41A 64PTS
22pts in his last 17gms post all-star break. That paces connor for 53pts. 34pts in 30games total. That paces him at 51pts. Kinger… you’ve pretty much got it locked down.
Two things.. I’m not entirely convinced that’s a real phone number and I don’t know how much back patting you should be doing when you guessed 0.25p/gm light on Mcdavid’s scoring…
Have fun with your son!
kinger_OIL,
You can do whatever you want with the Jersey (if you win) it’s yours.
BTW, are they going to send Nurse down soon?
Or is there some kind of value/learning in getting killed nearly every game?
And if there is, let NN be the pupil.
There could well be an anti-Panarin movement in Calder voting late. Problem is those votes likely get split between McDavid and Gostisbehere. And the Chicago media will likely have McDavid outside their top 5.
Panarin
Gostisbehere
McDavid
Likely order. It’s okay, Oiler fans. We will take a sixth Cup over a first Calder.
I thought Chiarelli had 20-20-40 in the McDavid contest?
Under promise, over deliver!
Bruce McCurdy,
Good point. Fixed the leaderboard.
It’s a conspiracy! Chiarelli had Philly maul McDavid so that he could win the pool.
He had also heard from his new counterparts about the virtues of drafting high and wanted to experience it first-hand.
One stone, two birds, one clavicle.
So,Oilers certainly dominated possession numbers last night, eh? yay team!
Of course there was that small matter of gifting the opponent 2 goals in the first 3 minutes and further giving up a freebie in the seconds following each Oiler goal. Each time after an ugly turnover in mid-ice followed by piss poor defensive coverage.
Speaking of the latter I found an appropriate video that encapsulates what happened to Oilers each time they scored.
I hope they call Oesterle back up.
Fog of Warts,
Nice work! I can visualize that conversation.
You’ve reminded me of a true story. A friend’s father was in a geriatric hospital ward, 4 beds. There was another patient in the ward with the same name.
Every so often an intern would come up to him and declare “Mr Jones, it’s time for your enema.”
Response: “No, I just had one. It’s the other Mr. Jones.”
Poor bastard across the way must have wondered why people kept abusing him like that.
I think you want Bear and Jones on the Davidson path. You sign them next summer to avoid another Reider situation but you send them back to junior. Take the long term view where they can play big minutes rather than being buried in Norfolk or in the press box in Bakersfield.
No, they make more of a grunting noise: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZ_zm5oOuLc
Willis has a good take about running Davidson as a RD next year on the second pair – http://oilersnation.com/2016/3/5/what-if-brandon-davidson-can-play-the-right-side
I think this is likely what the Oiler’s will do.
Klef-*Hamonic*
Davidson-Sekera
Both Bear & Jones are June birthday’s, I believe, and have to either make the NHL or go back to Junior.
Suspended from two leagues at once:
Mark Divver
@MarkDivver
Zac Rinaldo suspended indefinitely pending league review of his match penalty for check to head on Friday night, per Bruce Cassidy. #AHL
Just looked it up – Sweeney traded a 3rd round pick for Rinaldo.
Hard to whine about Gotisbehere or Panarrin (sp?) In ROY conversation. Got is a shot machine and Pan with Kane has been a deadly combo all year.
I’m not sure (honestly) if the most surprising player this year for me hasn’t been Draisaitl (not Davidson). Leon’s year has been in such stark contrast to last year. Davidson has only ever beat every odd at every level. (Tongue in cheek if the sarcasm font is broken).
Apologies for the double negative.
I think if we want to measure progress it has to be against the Nelson Oilers not the combined Nelson-MacT-Eakins Oilers. TMac was hired not to outperform Eakins but outperform Nelson.
Excluding his co-coach run with MacT, I beleive Nelson was 17-22-7 for 41 points over the last 56 games, and he did a big chunk of it without Hall and Petry among other injuries and some pretty poor goaltending.
That’s the bar, and it isn’t that high. In Jan and Feb TMac and the Oilers are trailing Nelson’s Oilers. Be interesting to see the finish.
Mark Fayne was not good last night.
I’m not sure if management’s assessment of him is fair this year (i.e. scratching him and putting him on waivers), but I’m also not sure if the Oilogosphere’s defence of him is justified either.
Kmart99,
Damn you Chiarreli!!! You’re like the guy that pick $1 on the price is right :). Whoever wins between you and Kinger oil if you’re not too attached to the jersey it would be kind of entertaining to have it as a running contest every year with the jersey holder deciding what statistic we are trying to guess. That way the jersey will make its way to a new home every year in true Marc Andre Bergeron fashion.
Not everyone defends Fayne.
Off the glass and down the boards
Entire ice is open, smack hit the linesman instead with your attempted clear out.
Every single game he has a gaff that usually results in a ugly goal against that’s tolerable…
It’s not Gord dang tolerable with his price tag and expected performance.
I expected a player maybe close to Staios level of defensive performance, received a Ference/Nikitin mash combo of let down.
He’s warm beer.
Difference is, Panarin is on Kane’s line.
For every player that has played with him, they have been on McDavid’s line.
McDavid = Michael Schumacher
Panarin = Hitchhiker picked up by a limo.
Jultz scratched again today for the Pens.
Guess that sweetheart guaranteed minutes deal didn’t transfer.
He’s having visa trouble and isn’t legal to reside an work in the US yet.
Woodguy,
I believe you.
Strange how the other players moved haven’t had any issues.
A likely story
He’s crap and the Penguins traded for him just to sit him to underscore how crappy he is.
Woodguy,
“The Penguins host the Calgary Flames Saturday afternoon and head coach Mike Sullivan has said the team has not determined whether Schultz will get to make his Penguins debut. The staff has spoken to Schultz about what they expect from him.”
His visa issues have been resolved.
He missed their last game because the coach wanted him to get in a full practice before suiting up.
Doesn’t look like he’ll dress again today even after a full practice.
Nikitin, Nurse, Korpikoski were all terrible yesterday and bear most of the fault for a game in which the big guns played very well.
Remember that the next time someone tells you that the third and fourth lines and bottom pairing D don’t matter that much, while criticizing Hall and Eberle out of the other side of their mouth.
It drives me crazy that depth hockey players get graded on a curve. That’s how you trade RNH for pennies on the dollar, because you convince yourself that he’s the problem.
Florida is having a lot of trouble.
They traded for Purcell and Hudler Saturday.
They both missed the Cats sunday game in Minnesota, suited up for the Jets game in Canada, then were unable to get visa issues resolved in time for Thursday’s game back in the US in Denver.
The Cats hope both are hopefully able to go for tonights contest in Arizona.
I was digging around and found out that the guys processing Jultz’s Visa are huge Penguins fans.
May not get done till June 30th.
Woodguy,
Klima’s_Bucket,
Update: They’re Jultzing at the US Department of Labor.
Didn’t know the visa issue was cleared up.
I want to watch him play for someone else.
Condor’s line up today:
FORWARDS:
Klinkhammer – Khaira – Miller
Hamilton – Winquist – Pitlick
Ford – Yakimov – Slepyshev
Moroz – Currie – Kessy
DEFENSE:
Oesterle – Reinhart
LaLeggia – Musil
Simpson – Hunt
IN NET: The pride of ?? @eetu41
As per Condor’s twitter @Condors
Unicorns on the farm!
FTFY
If Klinkhammer doesn’t get a call-up, he’s at least going to get himself a nice look at some camp in the fall. That’s quite the bit of scoring from him.
They are trying to fix him.
GCW_69,
x2 We are comparing the McDavid + Chiarelli + TMac era to a season that’s half Eakins. At the very least you need to weight (more) modern history in the latter part of last season more heavily.
Good interview LT with DVD about Yak. I didnt catch it all, as am doing taxes right now but it
sounds like Yak has had difficulty trying to grasp the system under McLellan and its the main reason he has not played in the top 6 ( especially with McDavid).
I think many of us have wanted to see Yak with a better center than Letestu, but according to the coaching staff, Yak did not earn it until lately.
As fans we only get to read part of the story. I have never thought that McLellan “hated” Yak and did not want him to succeed, but found some of his deployment of Yak a bit puzzling. DVD’s explanation brings some sense to the situation.
Sleppy still buried behind two guy with no realistic future with the team though. And if they aren’t going to sign Winquist putting him ahead of Yak 2 going forward is questionable.
Should be:
Klinkhammer – Khaira – Slepyshev
Hamilton – Yakimov – Miller
Ford – Winquist – Chase
Moroz – Pitlick – Kessy
Might even flip Chase and Miller if development is the priority.
A part of me was hoping it would’ve be in a Canuck uniform. 🙁
Although it would of being really interesting in an LA King uniform.
Woodguy,
Sadist….
I will enjoy that scene as well.
How Come nhl players get fast tracked typically for visa stuff and us common Joe’s we wait.
I think you just answered your own question
I agree with your post but I think the point total is over 46 games.
*** REQUEST FOR CREDIT ***
A while back, somebody – and I’m embarrassed that I’ve forgotten the name, hence this request – suggested looking at a players shot differentials over the course of a game as a measure of fatigue and/or fitness.
I thought this was a brilliant idea, and have been working on it in the background – the likely topic for my first analytics post over at BeerLeagueHeroes.
If whoever posted that idea (or someone who remembers who did) could please speak up – I would like to make sure you get the appropriate credit for your innovative idea.
Thanks!
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/david-perron-finds-grind-game-with-anaheim-ducks-045957923.html
Perron got his groove back it seems. Happy for him.
I get that we all love Connor, but the hyperbole in the comments here surrounding panarin is insane.
Sure he’s a little older and a dreaded Russian, but he’s an amazing player who would look good away from Kane as well. He has a history of elite production in the second best league and is helping Kane have a season no one ever imagined Kane should have. I know we all think patty is amazing but he’s twenty points above any of his totals from the last three years and already tied his career high in points. Kane is having a year that is so far out of his expected range of performance, that you have to start to ask, why?
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=96554
And panarin is the answer. The breadman just gets no respect.his last three seasons have been elite in two different leagues. He’s helping Kane zoom as much as the reverse is happening.
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=117198
When I hear people say he’s a hitch hiker, it just blows my mind.
Panarin plays all the games and has helped make one of the best players in the world better. And as a rookie is in the top fifteen in scoring. Sure ghost is good and mcdavid will be great, but the notion that there should be a debate about who is the best rookie through this whole season is insane. This kid is elite and his rookie season is probably the best one since Kane.
Sometimes I feel like being Russian means this board gets to act a touch like it’s still the cold war.
While we’re at it lets give the vezina to price because no matter what he’s the best in the world regardless that he’s missed the whole season. Actually let’s give him MVP because it’s obvious that he was more valuable to his team than any other player!!!! Who cares if you contribute for a whole season, because 82 games doesn’t mean anything in hockey.
While we’re at it lets tar and feather yak!
Sneak peek:
This is the Oilers over the course of a game, without Draisaitl on the ice: http://i.imgur.com/seUOAWo.png
It’s not pretty.
This is the Oilers with Draisaitl on the ice: http://i.imgur.com/uRsiSdL.png
Wow!
Of course, Drai is a darn good player. He also spends most of his time with Taylor Hall. When that line is on the ice, the Oilers are better than most teams they face. But … you know … these observable facts should not in any way sway anyone’s opinion that Taylor Hall sucks and we should trade him.
And lastly, here’s how Draisaitl’s CorsiRel changes over the course of the game: http://i.imgur.com/2kuKKKe.png
Interesting to note that the 2 to 5 minute mark or so of both the first and second periods is when Drai seems to lose the handle a little bit. No idea why that could be, or if it’s just a random happenstance (could very well be), but something to note.
You get the tar. I’ll bring the feathers!!
jfry,
I don’t think Panarin is a passenger.
I think it is the 250+ Pro games he played before his “rookie debut” that taints the perception.
Wasn’t Gretzky considered ineligible because he had played professionally before being an NHL rookie?
jfry,
I agree with you on your first point, which is that it isn’t really fair to Panarin to just assume it’s all Kane. There’s a helluva player there, no question about it.
As to the complaints about Panarin for the Calder, I won’t speak for others, but personally what bothers me is not his being Russian (after all the defending I do of Yak, surely no one could accuse me of that, could they?!?), but his age and his history.
You are 100% correct – Panarin has a track record of scoring.
In fact, he has a multi-year track record of scoring.
In a pro league.
Because he’s 24 years old, and has been playing in the KHL for *nine* years. He’s been a pro for nine years in the second best league in the world!
Now how on Earth can you have a track record like that and still be considered a rookie?
Because the NHL, in all its arrogance, only counts ‘comparable’ leagues for rookie eligibility. The KHL is not a ‘comparable’ league, so you can be a 30 year old with 12 years of pro KHL experience and still be a Calder candidate by NHL standards.
I don’t know about you, but comparing someone like that vs a 18 or 19 y.o. actual rookie whose last league was the CHL is somewhat outrageous.
Is Panarin darn good? Yes. Is he a “rookie”? Nope.
jfry,
If you think it’s Panarin that drives Kane’s production, you are crazy. He compliments, sure. But so would a lot of other good players there. You have pointed out his good points very well. However, to call him a rookie, and to include him in the rookie race is asinine. As you say, he was very good in the world’s second best league.
He’s 24. Connor’s 19.
He turned pro in 2008. Connor, this year.
He’s played 64 NHL games. Connor has played 30.
He’s scoring at 0.92PPG. Connor’s 1.13.
He’s playing on one of the premier lines on one of the premier teams in the league. Connor plays for the Oilers.
He’s a great complimentary player to one of leagues best players. Whereas every player to play with McDavid will be complimentary to him,.
This is not hyperbole, but truth. By every metric available, Panarin is very good, could even become great. But he’s clearly is no McDavid.
And I don’t think ‘Elite Production’ means what you think it means. By his record, he’s a little streaky.
G Money,
I don’t know how reliable war-on-ice’s scoring chance data is, but by that metric Hall is having an excellent season considering how poor his team is.
Hall is +60, 53% scoring chance ratio.
It also shows how top heavy the Oilers are. The Hall line (Draisatl and Purcell), McDavid, Eberle, and Davidson are the only ones in the positive.
You know who is last.
Anyone know who this is, is there a blog associated with it?
https://plot.ly/~ReadtheBox/14/where-does-the-money-go-nhl-spending-breakdown-team-position/
It’s on a nice site for hosting interactive graphics that I’ve been playing with recently.
Caramel Batman,
No question. I like the WOI scoring chance data – like all the metrics, it has its own particular strengths and weaknesses.
Not sure if you’ve seen my player dashboards, but you can see all the Oilers (as of a couple of games ago) over the course of the entire season on a single page here: http://i.imgur.com/Iz4Ct2Z.png
Nobody has said “Panarin should not get the Calder cause he is Russian”
What people have said is this
Because
-Panarin is older than most rookies ( 24 years old)
-Has played professional for 5 full seasons before this one in the worlds 2nd best league
-He is playing on one of the top teams, getting loads of ice time with the best players.
Pananrin will be docked votes for the Calder because of these factors.
He is not getting knocked because he is Russian. Thats crazy.
Something I found funny. When Panarin first laced them up in the KHL, McDavid was just leaving atom hockey
delooper,
Slick.
Connor is in the running for best player in the world, and only the oilers curse is keeping him out of the calder race. I will say right now that at the world cup, he will be dubbed the best player, much like crosby in 2010. I also think Nuge will get his due sometime soon. Say olympics. It took awhile for dasysuk and bergeron to get their due.
Hamonic is 51.5% and +32, which is good considering his competition and team
Vatanen is only 50% (on a team that is dominant) so not that good.
Demers is 55%, but on a better team than the Islanders
Shattenkirk is also 50% but on a worse team, the Blues aren’t dominant by this metric.
None of these guys stand out as truly dominant D. The leaderboard is filled with guys who play together on good teams. Hedman is best at 59%, Doughty is 57%
It’s fun to find the outlier. That would be Sean Couturier and Nino Neidereiter.
It’s fun to play around with it. It passes the smell test for me.
Jultz hasn’t played because when the Pens asked his best position he told them he was the Oilers #1 Lollygager
Pens are still looking over their roster positions ?
Well that paints a stark picture
Question: How do you think McDavid would of looked at this point with Kane on his wing and Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson… feeding him pucks?
Also rule that had Gretzky omitted from Calder consideration was any player with 25 or more games in the WHA. Panarin has over 250 KHL games. That’s not a rookie.
Top 10 D by relScoringchance%
Hedman
Suter
Campbell
Brendan Smith
Lindholm
OEL
Stralman
Manson
Spurgeon
Ellis
Then you have guys like Byfuglien, Keith, Vlasic, Doughty and surprises like MIke Weber (let’s get him, why not?)
Petry, Marincin, and Davidson are all on the next page (21-40) along with Hamonic, Karlsson, Klingberg, Trouba, Brodie etc.
I don’t think anyone is ever going to convince me that Marincin can’t play.
Of the names bantered about Hamonic is the only one who really rates. Tyson Barrie is also there on the third page (41-60)
One of the best things about teaching this course about doing mathematics in Python is I get to refresh my skills and find out about all the latest libraries. plot.ly is really nice. Soon vispy will be great, too. It’s still a little primitive now but it’s a great little OOPed OpenGL interface. It’s interesting to see there’s decent CUDA interfaces for Linux now, as well.
I might try to make some of your graphics more interactive in the near future, GMoney. There’s a few really convenient libraries for making 2d plots with hover-text, like bokeh. mpld3 might be a good way to go, as well.
I hope to get my students to use G Money’s code later this semester but I’m still building their confidence up on basic things, for now.
The word is that they’ll play him on the 3rd pair.
I always thought he should be there and he may flourish as Jultzing costs the team less in that spot.
delooper,
Yeah, I’m dabbling in the interactive libraries, that’s definitely the way of the future … but no concrete plans for the moment, got a bunch more todos on my basic analysis work first.
I still get these ‘blown away’ moments with Python and the libraries and just how many and how powerful they are.
The ‘Coursi’ charts I posted earlier – I wrote a draft version of them a while back where I essentially collect and resample the data (to one minute buckets and to periods). Now that I’m using the charts for a little more formal reason, I went back to the libraries and … naturally, resampling is already part of the pandas library I already use.
Just had to figure out how to use the timeindex capabilities, and presto, fifty lines of code became … one.
Probably similar to playing with the oilers forwards. Don’t pretend like hall and eberle, yakupov, pouliot are chopped liver.
I’m on the same page.
Most of the ice time should go to the prospects including PP and PK to some extent.
Ford-Miller were getting all the cherry minutes earlier in the year.
Baby steps.
Bakersfield Condors @Condors
CONDORS GOAL!!!! @GriffinReinhart from @Bobbyklink & @Dmusil6. It’s 1-0 with 11 min. left. 9-game point streak for #TheColonel.
You and me both apparently. For a while I thought we were put of I in the worst possible way.
There are probably many ways to determine Calder winner
Didn’t RNH lose to Landescog despite putting up almost equal points in significantly less games
Wasn’t Gretzy shafted because of his WHA experience and an older Russian “amateur” won it
1) I love this chart – not necessarily the results that the chart displays but the ability to instantly visualize what is going on with the team and the individual players. I like seeing the daily charts but the cumulative ones are even better.
2) Brandon Davidson is an NHL player, full stop. I’ve been cheering like hell for him (especially post cancer – young survivor solidarity and all that) but the chart shows he’s been the most consistent (and consistently good) D-man the entire season and it doesn’t matter who he’s paired with.
3) Caramel Batman, – yup, you’re right the team is extremely top heavy, but man alive are those top players performing well by these metrics.
4) Yak still has nice numbers and colours on the chart despite his deployment with dregs. Good for Yak.
And now back to the grading pile…
2-0 now Hamilton from Hunt and Winquist.
so we’re all just upset with how “rookie” is defined? the definition of rookie hasn’t really changed since makarov, i believe?
it’s like it’s dfs saturday around here…. goal posts moving all over the place!!!
there’s a clear definition of what the NHL considers a rookie. and panarin is a run away leader now, given that definition.
if we’re voting for best 19yo…sure connor wins in a walk…if we’re talking fantasy player swapping (which some are), then yeah, oilers win the cup!!! plan the parade!
the NHL defines rookie in a very clear fashion. panarin fits. i get all the other stuff (age and leagues), but it doesn’t really matter because it’s fantasy. we’re always arguing about working the cap to it’s best advantage (let euros fully bake over there) then bringing them over when they are ready and cheap. the khl has even suggested that this approach be taken (with the president suggesting that soshnikov should have waited two years to come over instead of playing in the AHL).
i don’t know…chicago used europe the absolute best way possible, just like they’ve been using NCAA players the best way possible…
i get the desire to change the definition of rookie, but it is what it is.
a lot of europeans start playing pro hockey at 16 in the KHL/SHL/ETC…should they all be disqualified? klefbomb had a lot of pro games under his belt before the NHL, for instance. and why do we consider the khl different than the ahl? the ahl is a pro league. what if you played 300 ahl games and then won rookie of the year as a 24 yo? would that person not be a rookie in our eyes?
how about we let the NHL define it and just stick with that.
#dfs #goalPostsMoving
Well, guys who do the voting like Friedman have mentioned the exact same things being pointed out here
-that Panarin may get docked in Calder voting because he is older, has played in the KHL, and is playing with Kane
Voters will take that into account.
If we look at the list of winners since the lockout year, the oldest guy to win it was Steve Mason at the old age of 21 in 09.
If Panarin wins, Id have no problem because I think he is a very good player and would be very deserving.
But if Ghost and McDavid keep up their pace, they both have good arguments in winning ROY as well.
Ford from Slepyshev and Yakimov, 3-1 Condors.
You notice the bottom six forwards who do most of the PK have the oilers at 16 th in the NHL.
The top six forwards which some say never trade even for a defenceman have the oiler pp at a tie for 25 th.
The bottom six is not the problem and neither is the top six but in order to correct the defence something has to give.
#strawman #arguinglostcauses #connorsbetter #gratuitoushashtagsusedoutsideoftwitterarefuckingannoying
Hold on a second.
Not saying people SHOULD dock Panarin because by the NHL rule book he qualifies. What I am saying is Friedman and others in the media have already said there are some voters who are looking at his pro experience.
In baseball you may recall Ichiro came over and won ROY and MVP. That caused some backlash to the extent that some voters left Hideki Matsui off their ballot ENTIRELY because they decided to apply their own rules to what a rookie is. Matsui lost the ROY as a result of those zero votes. Had he had second place votes instead he would have won.
Anyway, Panarin deserves the Calder if you ask me. But we could very well see a late push boosting Ghost and McDavid.
We aren’t the ones moving the goal posts. Hash tag away all you want, but it doesn’t change the small movement under foot. Does it cost Panarin in the end? We will see. I don’t think it will unless voters make up their own rules a la Matsui and leave him off their ballots entirely. I doubt that happens and think he will win.
Norman Greenbaum,
great contribution to the discussion. thanks.
if you’ve been here long enough you’d know that using a hashtag is a bit of an inside joke.
I’ll get worked up about the Calder every now and then, and then I remember that the NHL player awards are all kinds of silly and it’s pretty pointless to care about them.
NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,
you don’t think the small movement underfoot is a canadian broadcaster trying to get interest in canada? creating content for his user? as much as we all love friedman for his insider info, his job is to generate clicks in canada. all things connor for all sports networks in canada seems to be the direction given by those up top since middle of last summer…and for good reason.
if you do some google searches for different countries about nhl rookie of the year, you’ll find some interesting perspectives that aren’t connor and canada-centric. from some very great broadcasters and minds…
anyhow, i’ll let this go.
truth!
it’s all about who drafts first!!!! 😉
jfry,
Moving goalposts? Rather silly metaphor for this situation IMO.
Every league/group/jurisdiction with a history inevitably has on their books stupid and/or anachronistic rules. You cannot legally paint a wooden ladder in Alberta. It’s not legal to whistle in Petrolia.
Most people, if they know about those rules at all, care little because they’re almost never actually invoked or otherwise cause issues.
The stupidity and arrogance of the NHL definition of rookie has been understood for a long time. It just hasn’t really been an issue, because it’s been exceedingly rare for a top notch player to come over to the NHL in their prime with years of pro play elsewhere and have an impact. (Jiri Dopita anyone?)
Unsurprisingly, the last time it really happened is when the Iron Curtain fell.
Now it’s an issue again. Because now we’re comparing a 19 yo player fresh out of junior (plus several other players playing in a non-developmental pro league for the first time) with a 24 yo with over 250 games (prior to the start of this season) in a non-developmental professional league.
All it does is highlight (again – for the first time in ages, but NOT the first time), the stupidity of the NHL’s definition of rookie.
Fortunately, I suspect, or perhaps hope, furjonk 🙂 has it right – many of the voters recognize and will account for the fact that we’re really comparing a rookie with an experienced pro for ‘rookie of the year’, and will vote accordingly.
Even if McDavid doesn’t get it, I hope the voters are looking at Eichel, Larkin, Domi, or Ghost Bear – all of whom are *actually* rookies, and for that reason IMO more deserving of R.O.Y. over Panarin.
Me, too. I don’t think Friedman is a shrill for some cause. He tells it like it is. Think he is past generating clicks at this point.
G Money,
so let’s go back to my earlier point then … how is the AHL games played different than KHL games played. last year mark stone was a 23 ROY candidate with two full seasons of AHL experience. how about kuznetsov — he was a drafted russian that washington let cool and he came over as a 22 yo. klefbom played 6 “pro” seasons before he was in the NHL as a rookie as a 21yo.
i guess i just don’t understand how/what we’re defining as a pro league, because it appears that we’re defining the AHL as “development” league even though they’re pros.
if yakimov makes the team next year he’ll be considered a rookie, yet he’s played in 3 different professional leagues in the last 3 years.
the NCAA doesn’t consider the CHL an amateur league.
so i feel like this discussion is less about “if you’ve played pro” than “how old are you?”.
and if that’s the case, we’re saying that development is a straight line and we should only be looking at one or two people a year who are under 20?
if that’s the case…let’s just make a different award, that’s similar to the nba’s sixth man of the year. but call it “best up and comer”.
Bookjie? I thought everyone wanted to fuck that guy.
jfry,
Not sure if you know this, but as part of its definition of rookie and Calder eligibility, the NHL itself ALREADY defines which leagues are pro leagues and which are developmental leagues.
The problem is that ALL leagues are developmental according to the NHL.
That’s the incredibly arrogant part. There are NO pro leagues in the world that the NHL doesn’t consider a development league.
The KHL is not a developmental league. It’s a full pro league, with multi-million dollar contracts and players fully capable of playing and even starring in the NHL, who choose not to go (or left, like Kovalchuk).
Once you play 80 (or some other reasonable threshold) in the KHL, you are no longer a rookie. [and that’s how you handle your situation with Yak2]
The AHL IS a development league. Even then, if the NHL set some sort of threshold (160? 240?) for games played, I doubt if anyone would or should bat an eye.
You can also argue about whether or not some of the first tier European leagues are developmental or not, and if so, what the right threshold should be. But at least you can have that argument.
Unless it’s with the NHL. In that case, there is no argument – because all leagues are development leagues. And no thresholds therefore apply.
What’s even more bizarre is that the NHL *even has a rookie threshold standard for itself*.
Bizarre. Stupid. Arrogant.
And that stupidity and arrogance – and please, don’t for a moment tell me that this is the ONLY instance in which the league is stupid and arrogant, they are experts in that area – is what’s causing this rather stupid and pointless situation with the Calder.
Sometimes in these discussions I surprise myself with how big a fan I am of hockey and the Oilers – and how much sheer contempt I have for the NHL.
When searching the internet, I keep finding the statement that the Calder Memorial Trophy is awarded “to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition.”
Dictionary.com defines proficient as “well-advanced or competent in any art, science, or subject; skilled” (Merriam-Webster has the definition as simply “good at doing something” and “well advanced in an art, occupation, or branch of knowledge”).
Is Connor McDavid one of the most advanced centers in the league, right now? Yes. Absolutely yes. Debatably top-5 at this moment. By some scoring metrics, he’s already the very best.
Is Artemi Panarin one of the most advanced wingers in the league, right now? I know he’s damn good, and I would love him on the Oilers, but I would pick many wingers ahead of him right now.
If we’re not considering solely the position, then maybe we mean just generally “proficient at hockey regardless of position”, as in helping the overall team win games.
So how about this… if the Oilers offered to trade McDavid for Panarin at the deadline, with the understanding that the players would be traded back again in the offseason, is anyone going to argue that the Blackhawks wouldn’t take the trade to have McDavid as a rental down the stretch and into the playoffs?
EDIT Please also assume that the Oilers retain and eat salary so it doesn’t become a salary cap issue… the Calder cup shouldn’t consider salary cap but only the play of the player.
Amen
G Money,
ha!
This graphic is a perfect justification for:
1 – Why you move Nurse+ for Hamonic. Maybe you lose that deal in 5 years, but you win it today, and you are in position to make several cup runs with the improvement on Defense.
2 – Why you dump Korpikoski at a loss if necessary
3 – Why you cannot keep Mark Fayne on this roster next year
Just looking at Avs stats and the forwards do not have one player with a positive Corsi.
How can that be when they have 70 pts and are still faintly in running for wild card.
Iginla has a Corsi that is worse than gasp our whipping boy Korpikoski .
I wonder if oil could bring him home.
I guess they couldn’t fit his 5 million in cap.
If you paint a ladder, you can cover up cracks or defects in the wood, which can lead to a fall from height. It also may affect traction and make it more likely someone will slip while using the ladder. If I was inspecting a site, and saw a painted ladder, it would make me question whether said company was serious about managing workplace risk.
Course if it’s nighttime and the fucking thing ain’t painted…. You bang your damn head on it.
Have you spent much time looking at team shot metric data?
We don’t completely suck.
ROY:
A 24 year old needs to be compared against 18 to 24 year season
19 year old needs to be compared to 18 to 19 year seasons.
Modern era
#13: Mcdavid 1.13 PPG
Gretz; lemieux, lindros, 2 Hawerchuk, 2 francis, 2 crosby, stamkos, trottier.
#616: Panarin
So yeah!
If you are so elite.
You should be able to outscore all those younger seasons.
Gretz
1.37 @ 19
2.77 @ 23
G Money,
Hey G,
Not sure if you are thinking about my ask if you were going to incorporate time-based stats with your analysis. It was probably around a year or so when you started posting all your brilliant ideas (before you finally started your website). It may not have been me, but I believe your response was that you liked the idea and you would look into it after you had fully fleshed out your initial analysis….
Evilas,
Hi E,
I’m referring specifically to the idea of using corsi over the course of the game as a measure of fatigue or fitness. I can’t remember when it was posted (if I could, I’d be able to find it!), but it was sometime in the last three months or so.
If there’s something I should be giving credit for, or if that was you, great, but it sounds like it might have been something different?
G，
No worries, I didn’t think it was my comment, but I thought it was possible that your big brain may have taken a speck of an idea and expanded on it.