2016 FIRST ROUND IS GROWING IN QUALITY

As happens every year, some of the people who were down on the 2016 draft early are now warming to the overall pool of prospects. This is not 2003, nor is it 2015, but there is a strong group stretching out after the top three overall. If you are the Edmonton Oilers, with an early second-round selection, it might be worthwhile trading up into the middle of the first round. I think we may see a lot of movement at the draft table this summer.

The Oilers should be able to grab two (or more) of the names below based on where they are drafting. It is important to keep in mind a trade is possible, either down in the first round or out of the top 30.

OILERS PICKS FOR 2016

  1. No. 2 overall
  2. No. 32 overall
  3. No. 62 overall
  4. No. 76 overall (Pittsburgh pick)
  5. No. 83 overall (Florida pick)
  6. No. 122 overall
  7. No. 148 overall (St. Louis pick)
  8. No. 152 overall
  9. No. 182 overall

LOWETIDE 2016 DRAFT TOP 30, IDES OF MARCH

  1. (1) C Auston Matthews, Zurich Lions (Swiss-A): From the video, he looks like a sure plug and play for an NHL team. Matthews is 36gp, 24-22-46. He is is 6.02, 194 and could be better than Eichel. Could he be 2LW in Edmonton this fall? NHLE is 42 points, Taylor Hall was 46 points NHLE in his draft season. Matthews is a fantastic prospect.
  2. (2) W Patrik Laine, Tappara (Sm-Liiga): Laine  is 46gp, 17-16-33 in the SM-Liiga. A 6.04, 207 power winger and I do think a team drafting second this year should consider themselves extremely fortunate. NHLE: 17 points, time-on-ice may be an issue (it often is with Euro players, giving us an even stronger feel for Matthews).
  3. (3) R Jesse Puljujarvi, Karpat (Sm-Liiga): Injured now, he was 7gp, 5-3-8 leading up to the injury. He is is 50gp, 13-15-28 in the SM-Liiga. Size, speed and creativity, he is a complete forward with the ability to make a difference on offense and defense. NHLE: 13 points.
  4. (4)  L Matthew Tkachuk, London Knights (OHL): He is 54gp, 27-76-103 overall. He is ripping up the scoring charts in the Ontario league. I cannot decide who is zooming who on his team so have him at No. 4. NHLE is 50 points. CHL analyst for Sportsnet Todd Warriner: “Strong on the puck, good playmaker who gets to the net and finishes. Tenacious, good in traffic and sticks up for himself and teammates…just like his Dad. Playing with Marner and Dvorak means early season stats should continue.” Source
  5. (5) LD Jacob Chychrun, Sarnia Sting (OHL): Chychrun is 59gp, 10-36-46 in the OHL this season. NHLE is 20 points. Brendan Ross, McKeens and Dobber Hockey: “His ability to read the play and jump into action is elite and catches opposing defences off-guard. Chychrun’s strength and touch on the puck are approaching elite levels for a defenseman making him as dangerous as any forward in the league.” Source
  6. (6) LD Mikhail Sergachev, Windsor Spitfires (OHL): He is 64gp, 15-36-51. EP says he is a dominant two-way defenseman. Sergachev is also a fine skater and 6.02, 205—he might be the best defender in the draft. NHLE: 21 points. Todd Warriner: “Keeps getting better. Powerful skater, poised and solid with puck. Rink and gym rat, who’s a fierce competitor and wants to be an NHL player.” Source
  7. (7)R Alexander Nylander, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL): He is 56gp, 28-47-75 this season. A slick winger and a lot like his brother. At 6.0, 172, he is the first small forward on the list. NHLE: 35 points. Mark Seidel, NACS Hockey: “Might have the best pure skill in the OHL…Will bring fans out of their seats…Getting better defensively…High ceiling.” Source.
  8. (11) C Michael McLeod, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL): He is 54, 21-38-59 and 6.02, 187. Playmaking power center and a fantastic skater, I think he is shy of some of these kids offensively. Bob McKenzie has him No. 7 overall, but the offense suggests that is a little too high. NHLE is 29 points. Ryan Kennedy, The Hockey News: “The speed is incredible. Having seen him live, I could barely believe some of the stuff he pulls off when he has the puck and he’s pretty good on face-offs, as well. Scouts love how he stood out on Canada’s Ivan Hlinka team.”  Source
  9. (13) LD Olli Juolevi, London Knights (OHL): The Finn is 54gp, 9-30-39 this year. There is a lot to like: Smooth skater, great passer, and has a wide range of skills. NHLE is 19 points. Anthony Mauro, DraftBuzz Hockey: “Two way D with the mind of an NFL quarterback. He hasn’t been seen as flashy up to this point, but playing with Team Finland spiced things up a bit. Juolevi could be worth spending a higher pick on than consensus would suggest because of what he might look like unleashed as a pro. Has safety as a prospect with his frame and head for the game.” Source
  10. (14) LD Jake Bean, Calgary Hitmen (WHL): He is 66gp, 24-37-61 overall. Bean is an effective, creative player with the puck. Intelligent defender with across the board skills. He is 6.01, 172 and NHLE is 20 points. Speeding Zamboni: He seems to have the whole offensive package out there. He’s got a good shot, which he is able to keep low for deflections, and also able to get it through traffic. He’s a very agile skater who loves to spin off of checks. However, he is lacking a bit of explosiveness in terms of skating. He’s a good passer and a smart player, able to read the game as it develops. What has stuck out most to me in my early impression regarding Bean, is his shot. He is the trigger man on the most dangerous WHL blueline. Source
  11. (8) C Clayton Keller, USNDTP (USHL): He is 20, 11-23-34 in the USHL, and at 5.10, 170 you know he has to bring a few special skills to the game. NHLE is 38 points, the system I am using (Christian Roatis) is very generous for the USHL. Steve Kournianos: Keller is a strong, shifty skater with a powerful shot, displaying brilliance and hockey sense strikingly similar to Mitch Marner. 
  12. (12) C Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cape Breton Screaming Eagles (QMJHL): He is 61, 40-55-95 and has spiked in recent weeks. He has decent size—6.03, 201. Described as a complete prospect, he can impact the game at both ends. This is my favorite player-type, his skating is good not great or I would have him higher. NHLE: 33 points.
  13. (9) R Alex DeBrincat, Erie Otters (OHL): He is 57, 49-46-95 and has spiked in a big way since we last talked. Small sniper, not sure how much to nick him in regard to the other quality players on his team. NHLE is 44 points.
  14. (10) RD Dante Fabbro, Penticton Vees (BCJHL): He is 45gp, 14-53-67 overall. Difficult to compare offenses but my guess is he is a little shy of the men ahead of him. NHLE is 16 points, he has been compared to Brian Rafalski. I talked to Kirk Luedeke about him this week, said he as a very mature young man. ISS Hockey: “Strong offensive instincts as a puck moving D. Excellent skating & effortless stride.” Source
  15. (17) R Taylor Raddysh, Erie Otters (OHL). He is 64, 22-49-71 this year. Another big winger (6.02, 202), he has been called a power forward by some services. NHLE: 29 points.
  16. (16) L Tyson Jost, Penticton Vees (BCJHL). He is 48, 42-62-104. Elite Prospects: Crafty goal-scorer that carries out plays as quickly as he envisions them. NHLE: 23 points. 
  17. (15) R Julien Gauthier, Val D’Or Foreurs (QMJHL): He is 52, 41-15-56 and a monster at 6.04, 224. Great hands, speed is an issue and the entire Q class has skating issues, it seems. NHLE: 23 points.
  18. (25) RD Charlie McAvoy, Boston University (NCAA). He is 36, 3-21-24 in college. 6.0, 205 he has some interesting offensive numbers for a draft-eligible college players. The McKenzie List has him at No. 14, he is rising offensively. NHLE: 20 points.
  19. (21) C Luke Kunin, Wisconsin (NCAA): He is 33, 18-13-31 in the NCAA, that is a pretty good number for a draft eligible (Kunin is a December 1997). He is 6.0, 196, Elite Prospects likes him plenty. NHLE: 27 points.
  20. (27) C-R Nathan Bastian, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL): He is 61, 19-40-59 and driving toward a strong finish. At 6.04, 207 he possesses both good (and improving) speed and some offensive touch, along with some savvy defensively. I don’t have a clear picture of him but am intrigued. NHLE: 25 points.
  21. (19) C-L Kieffer Bellows, USNDTP (USHL). He is 20, 15-15-30. A nice offensive forward with good size (6.01, 194) and a scorer’s touch. Described as a good power forward who is aggressive offensively. Speed an issue. NHLE: 33 points.
  22. (26) D Cam Dineen, North Bay Battalion (OHL): He is 62, 12-46-58. Undersized at 6.0, 180 he is mobile, great passer. Steve Kournianos: Dineen is a high-end puck mover who likes to join the rush and communicates well with his teammates on the ice. He’s a smooth skater with a long stride, and his decision making is sound, specifically in terms of when and when not to pinch, and when to release from slot coverage. Source NHLE: 25 points.
  23. (NR) R Vitali Abramov, Gatineau Olympiques (QMJHL). I held off in listing him because there is no chance he will go in the first round, but he belongs. Only 5.09, 170 he is 63, 38-55-93 in the Q this year. He is a May 1998, and he is pretty skilled. Russia owes the Oilers a Traktor Boy, this young man may be it. NHLE: 31 points.
  24. (18) G Carter Hart, Everett Silvertips (WHL): He is down to .918 in save percentage and The McKenzie List doesn’t rate him as a first-round pick (No. 35). From the time I identified him as a solid first rounder to now, he has been going the wrong way. Still an interesting prospect and should be a first round pick.
  25. (NR) C Tage Thompson, Connecticut Huskies (NCAA). Older player, he is a giant and yet another NCAA player inside the top 30 this year. 6.05, 185 and 36, 14-18-32 this year. He is a legit skill player who had some injury issues earlier in his junior career. NHLE: 27 points.
  26. (28) L Riley Tufte, Fargo Force (USHL). He is 17, 6-2-8 in the USHL and beating the daylights out of high school goalies. Big winger (6.04, 205) with raw skills across a wide range. Complete wild card who may take some time to deliver on promise. I have spoken to independent scouts and to Luedeke, and the buzz on this guy is pretty massive. NHLE: 21 points (using high school totals).
  27. (NR) C-R Pascal Laberge, Victoriaville Tigres (QMJHL). He is 6.01, 172 and 53, 22-42-64 in the Q this year. Has two-way skills and is very aggressive. NHLE: 26 points.
  28. (30) C Logan Brown, Windsor Spitfires (OHL): He is 56, 19-48-67. 6.06, 215 and has impressive offensive skills. A playmaker, the questions revolve around foot speed. NHLE: 31 points.
  29. (20) C German Rubtsov, Team Russia (MHL). He is 28, 12-14-26 in the MHL, that doesn’t seem like an impact offensive player. However, Steve Kournianos of the Draft Analyst suggests he’s arguably the 2016 draft’s best two-way forward—that has value, and in a year where the offensive talent is going to be second tier by the middle of round one, he might go here. NHLE: 14 points.
  30. (23) C Dillon Dube, Kelowna Rockets (WHL): He is 61, 24-37-61. Undersized WHL scorer, speedy and has some two-way acumen (via Kournianos). NHLE: 22 points.

Missing the cut this time:

  • (22 last time) L Max Jones, London Knights (OHL): He is 60, 25-24-49 and described as a power forward with skills. Big man (6.03, 201) with speed, as always with these fellows the offense is the concern. He has a lot of fans in the scouting community. NHLE: 21 points.
  • (24 last time) C Rasmus Asplund, Farjestads (SHL). He is 46, 4-8-12 in a pro league. Asplund is 6.0, 180 and quality checker, very difficult to gauge offense from the SHL—Eriksson-Ek was 34, 4-2-6 last season and went No. 20 overall. NHLE: 13 points.
  • (29 last time) C Sam Steel, Regina Pats (WHL). He is 69, 22-45-67 and closing well. Fast, quick and skilled, he is 5.11, 176. NHLE: 21 points.

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66 Responses to "2016 FIRST ROUND IS GROWING IN QUALITY"

  1. square_wheels says:

    Is there a credible scenario where a team like St Louis, who knows it will have issues resigning Shattenkirk, calls Chia with the contract extension Shattenkirks agent has proposed and we flip 1st rounders with them and he comes to us extended. Chia may need to add something for the extension but this kind of move is where my head is at.

    Or fleece them for the trending downwards Petrilangelo and run from the draft floor screaming – “start the car Kevin, START THE CAR”.

  2. JDï™ says:

    Fifth in WHL scoring with 69 41-59-100 is Nolan Patrick. Scary to think he’s 2017 draft eligible, and already 6’3″ 195 lbs.

  3. Lowetide says:

    square_wheels:
    Is there a credible scenario where a team like St Louis, who knows it will have issues resigning Shattenkirk, calls Chia with the contract extension Shattenkirks agent has proposed and we flip 1st rounders with them and he comes to us extended. Chia may need to add something for the extension but this kind of move is where my head is at.

    Or fleece them for the trending downwards Petrilangelo and run from the draft floor screaming – “start the car Kevin, START THE CAR”.

    I think Chiarelli may be planning for it.

  4. Bad Seed says:

    square_wheels,

    So Mr Lowe is now the Oiler getaway driver?

  5. square_wheels says:

    Lowetide,

    When can teams extend players under their current contracts, Shattenkirk being the example ?

    The Blues are a fascinating study:
    – just 7 players signed on current roster in 2017/18, no goalies, 5 fwds and 2 D
    – Tarasenko averaging nearly 4 shots/game !!!!
    – need to resign the quietly awesome Schwartz this summer
    -Parayako very similar offence to Pet
    -Stastny’s contract is an anchor
    -no elite offence beyond Tarasenko and recovering Schwartz

    If there is a trade partner for a quality D its this organization, but I would be convincing them to rebuild on the fly and that Alex P will get them their pick of the Finn’s.

  6. square_wheels says:

    Bad Seed,

    Start the car Alan ! START THE CAR AND RUN OVER THE OLD BOYS CLUB THAT FUCKED THIS FRANCHISE FOR A DECADE !

    Except that one awesome spring where Fernando was king.

    Boy could we use the bottom 6 from that team, let alone the D.

  7. Mr DeBakey says:

    Its gotta suck when the first RHD listed plays in the BCHL.
    I was hoping to get a “Don’t play like puke for Jean-Luc” thing going. But, too late.
    I read the Michael Mcleod item and think Mmmmmichael MmmmmmcLeod.

  8. Clay says:

    JDï™:
    Fifth in WHL scoring with 69 41-59-100 is Nolan Patrick. Scary to think he’s 2017 draft eligible, and already 6’3″ 195 lbs.

    Only on an Oiler blog does the draft watch for next year start in a post about this year’s prospects.

    Punch. Me. In. The. Face.

    (I keed).

  9. Lowetide says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Its gotta suck when the first RHD listed plays in the BCHL.
    I was hoping to get a “Don’t play like puke for Jean-Luc” thing going.But, too late.
    I read the Michael Mcleod item and think MmmmmichaelMmmmmmcLeod.

    McLeod looks pretty fantastic.

  10. Professor Q says:

    JDï™:
    Fifth in WHL scoring with 69 41-59-100 is Nolan Patrick. Scary to think he’s 2017 draft eligible, and already 6’3″ 195 lbs.

    Take a Finn or D this year, and then go for Patrick next year? ?

  11. jonrmcleod says:

    Lowetide,

    I got excited for a moment but then I thought you were probably talking about Darcy.

  12. Big Dan says:

    square_wheels:
    Bad Seed,

    Start the car Alan ! START THE CAR AND RUN OVER THE OLD BOYS CLUB THAT FUCKED THIS FRANCHISE FOR A DECADE !

    Its been a tough week. First Anaheim and Lowe passing up Corey perry for Mike Comrie because Comrie wouldn’t pay him.

    Then let’s play Minnesota. That parise is a beaut. We picked poo and Jacques instead.

    Next is Phoenix. Got to love Steve Kelly over Shane

    It’s darkest before the dawn, I tell myself!

  13. Lowetide says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Lowetide,

    I got excited for a moment but then I thought you were probably talking about Darcy.

    Haha. While I am sure Darcy looks stunning (as always), it was Michael I was speaking of.

  14. kinger_OIL says:

    – LT: awesome post. Look forward to the day I don’t give a rat’s as# about the order of the top5

    – FRJohn: awesome comments re:Ebs. Basically: Yak + Demers for approx $6MM > Ebs, and with good D, Yak “might” be able to put points at Ebs current pace.

    – WG: awesome post re: D. I like the offense that shattenkirk brings. So Harmonic = Petry by your charts. We used to have a Petry….Too bad his replacement is going to cost so much

    Lots of awesome to go around the LT universe.

  15. flyfish1168 says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – LT: awesome post.Look forward to the day I don’t give a rat’s as# about the order of the top5

    – FRJohn: awesome comments re:Ebs.Basically: Yak + Demers for approx $6MM > Ebs, and with good D, Yak “might” be able to put points at Ebs current pace.

    – WG: awesome post re: D.I like the offense that shattenkirk brings. So Harmonic = Petry by your charts.We used to have a Petry….Too bad his replacement is going to cost so much

    Lots of awesome to go around the LT universe.

    For sure. WG has an awesome article about RHD from earlier blog. Worth a read

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/03/in-search-of-right-handed-defensemen.html

  16. square_wheels says:

    Woodguys article over at BecauseOilers.blogspot is bloody awesome. Suggest everyone take a read through the RHD deep dive he’s just published.

    Minor spoiler – make a considerable offer to Demers, somehow land Hamonic.

    And buy Klefbom a cat to lick his wounds. Healing tongue they say…..

  17. square_wheels says:

    flyfish1168,

    Look at us all gushing at WG, I wonder if we made the old curmudgeon blush ?

  18. Rondo says:

    LT,

    Why has Jacob Chychrun dropped on some lists?

    Below top 5

  19. Rondo says:

    I have Pierre-Luc Dubois at #4. He can play all 3 forward positions prefers rightwing and is goal scorer. Late Birthday. Oilers don’t need more playmakers, they need a natural goal scorer.

    After the top 3 he looks like a player the Oilers could use.

  20. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    LT,

    Why has Jacob Chychrun dropped onsome lists?

    Below top 5

    His offense is not so good that he represents high value at that number. Chychrun is 59gp, 10-36-46 in the OHL this season. GR was 58, 12-24-36, Nurse was 68, 12-29-41. Is the edge shown by Chychrun enough for us to believe he has big boy offense? I don’t know, and suspect the scouts don’t either.

  21. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    I have Pierre-Luc Dubois at #4.He canplay all 3 forward positions prefers rightwing and is goal scorer.

    After the top 3he looks like a player the Oilers could use.

    Foot speed. I have read that is his issue.

  22. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    If foot speed is an issue then no thanks.

    According to Corey Pronman “he’s not Marleau but he skates fine”

    Looks good to me

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04m4NwFDHX0

  23. John Chambers says:

    I’d be happy with Sergachev. It’d take 3-4 years for him to get up to speed, but this team can use a Letang-type.

  24. sliderule says:

    Lowetide: His offense is not so good that he represents high value at that number. Chychrun is 59gp, 10-36-46 in the OHL this season. GR was 58, 12-24-36, Nurse was 68, 12-29-41. Is the edge shown by Chychrun enough for us to believe he has big boy offense? I don’t know, and suspect the scouts don’t either.

    ‘His testing was off the chart at combine.

    Second overall in puck drills and skating agility.

    Connor and Marner were one two in this last year.

    He also scored highest in off ice testing

    Scored 14 goals in very few games a a 16 year old.

    Off season surgery on a torn back muscle hampered his off season training.

    If the oil are going to use the pick they should take a D .

    If they win lotto trade down a few spots and take Chychrun or one of the other top rated D

  25. teddyturnbuckle says:

    For the love of God take a defenceman at the top the draft this year if we don’t win the draft. If we land the 2nd pick then trade down and get two D men in the first round. Its been 10 years of crappy D men.

  26. frjohnk says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – LT: awesome post.Look forward to the day I don’t give a rat’s as# about the order of the top5

    – FRJohn: awesome comments re:Ebs.Basically: Yak + Demers for approx $6MM > Ebs, and with good D, Yak “might” be able to put points at Ebs current pace.

    – WG: awesome post re: D.I like the offense that shattenkirk brings. So Harmonic = Petry by your charts.We used to have a Petry….Too bad his replacement is going to cost so much

    Lots of awesome to go around the LT universe.

    Thanks.

    Yeah, if the Oilers do what Woodguy tells them to do and they get Demers for the cost of money and Hanonic for let’s say the 1st rounder then Yak would be surrounded and supported by a more balanced roster.

    If the roster is healthy, Yak would have an offensive center AND the majority of the time would be playing with 2 top 4 Dmen.

    In that arrangement I feel quite confident that Yak would produce.

  27. square_wheels says:

    https://twitter.com/commie22/status/709199209031802881

    Apparently Mike Commodore is not a fan of Mike Babcock.

  28. sliderule says:

    Correction as a 16 year old Chychrun had 16 goals in only 42 games.

  29. frjohnk says:

    Last year Godot, Woodguy, myself and there were others, spent a lot of time making the case for Hanifin

    Just say Noah!

    Of course we won the lottery and all the spreadsheets I made about Hanifin with projections and comparables ended up useless.

    Still won’t stop me from doing the same with Chychryn.

    Maybe this years spreadsheets will be useless as well 🙂

  30. sliderule says:

    Toronto beats Detrout 1-0 .

    Nbc announcers raving about .Marincin.

    They say oilers gave up on him because not physical.

    Leaf coaches say all big men are not necessarily physical..

    They must like him because he played huge minutes.

  31. Woodguy says:

    *SPAM*

    New post at Because Oilers:

    “In Search Of……Right Handed Dmen for the Oilers”

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/03/in-search-of-right-handed-defensemen.html

    Bonus: “See Leonard Nimoy’s Awesome Mustache!”

    *END SPAM*

  32. Ryan says:

    Woodguy:
    *SPAM*

    New post at Because Oilers:

    “In Search Of……Right Handed Dmen for the Oilers”

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/03/in-search-of-right-handed-defensemen.html

    Bonus: “See Leonard Nimoy’s Awesome Mustache!”

    *END SPAM*

    Raving about Manson AND no shout out to ME?

    C’mon man, you’re better than that. 🙂

  33. Caramel Batman says:

    sliderule:
    Toronto beats Detrout 1-0 .

    Nbc announcers raving about .Marincin.

    They say oilers gave up on him because not physical.

    Leaf coaches say all big men are not necessarily physical..

    They must like him because he played huge minutes.

    Does anyone remember when I hated the Reinhart trade because there was no evidence that Reinhart was better than Marincin, let alone worth a first round pick and a second round pick.

    This is one I told you so I am never going to let go.

    Remember this the next time you have blind faith in Chiarelli.

  34. kinger_OIL says:

    Not sure how much of this is tire-pumping, but this guy seems promising:

    Every statistical measure we can examine tells us he is an extremely effective defensive defender. He is the Leafs’ most effective shot attempt suppressor when it comes to possession. He is on the ice for the fewest goals against per 60 minutes at 5v5 of any Leafs defender. He is on the ice for the fewest scoring chances per 60 minutes at 5v5 of any Leafs defender. He’s on for fewer of those “highlight reel” plays against than his teammates, too.

    He is only on the ice for 12.12 Highlight Reel Events Against his team for every 60 minutes he is on the ice. Similar defenders by this measure would be Brian Campbell (11.73 HLA60), Hampus Lindholm (11.86 HLA60), Colton Parayko (11.89 HLA60), Sami Vatanen (12.14 HLA60), Seth Jones (12.15 HLA60), and Mark Giordano (12.20 HLA60).

    An xGA60 rating under 2.00 puts him in the top 13 defenders in the entire NHL. His peers in this regard would include the likes of Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Anton Stralman, Justin Braun, Mattias Ekholm, Seth Jones and Hampus Lindholm.

    Granted he’s only been on the top-line for a bit, so the stats don’t align with his usage: but maybe he’s more than a 6/7:

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/martin-marincin-top-pair-defenceman-leafs/

  35. Centre of attention says:

    square_wheels:

    Or fleece them for the trending downwards Petrilangelo and run from the draft floor screaming – “start the car Kevin, START THE CAR”.

    Lowetide: I think Chiarelli may be planning for it.

    I’m of the mind that St Louis could trade Pietrangelo and theoretically get Shattenkirk done with the extra funds. As others have said he’s had a bit of a “down” year but I would take Pietrangelo on my team any day.

    What would that deal look like? Nurse + the First rounder? I’m terrible at these.

    Klefbom-Pietrangelo
    Sekera-Fayne
    Davidson-Gryba
    Pardy

    the L/R is balanced this way.

    Pardy will be cheap and can play either side as a substitute #7, he will keep guys like Oesterle and Rienhart blocked in the minors for another year. If he continues to show well maybe hes gone at next deadline for a pick.

    Fayne is fine as a #4 in my mind, especially if playing second pairing with another veteran like Sekera. Perhaps his name should be in pencil though, as the Oilers could look to add a Demers or someone similar.

  36. Ancient Oilers Fan says:

    So hey, you the guy walking around with the wood.

    Using your offensive and defensive totals as points on a sledgehammer would do an interesting graphic with quadrants for:

    Offensive D
    Defensive D
    Two way D, And
    Mendoza wannabes

  37. Mr DeBakey says:

    kinger_OIL: Every statistical measure we can examine tells us he is an extremely effective defensive defender. He is the Leafs’ most effective shot attempt suppressor when it comes to possession. He is on the ice for the fewest goals against per 60 minutes at 5v5 of any Leafs defender. He is on the ice for the fewest scoring chances per 60 minutes at 5v5 of any Leafs defender. He’s on for fewer of those “highlight reel” plays against than his teammates, too.

    He, He, He, He
    His name is so difficult
    It doesn’t roll of your tongue like Nurse, Simpson, Klefbom or Davidson.
    He played 29:45 tonight

  38. Lowetide says:

    Caramel Batman: Does anyone remember when I hated the Reinhart trade because there was no evidence that Reinhart was better than Marincin, let alone worth a first round pick and a second round pick.

    This is one I told you so I am never going to let go.

    Remember this the next time you have blind faith in Chiarelli.

    Lots of people said the Reinhart trade was an overpay and lots of people said trading Marincin was a bad idea.

  39. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: Lots of people said the Reinhart trade was an overpay and lots of people said trading Marincin was a bad idea.

    Oh, those Oilers™

  40. Woogie63 says:

    Mr DeBakey: He, He, He, He
    His name is so difficult
    It doesn’t roll of your tongue like Nurse, Simpson, Klefbom or Davidson.
    He played 29:45 tonight

    Easy on this, tonight

    Valiev only played 6 minutes, injury?

  41. flyfish1168 says:

    sliderule:
    Toronto beats Detrout 1-0 .

    Nbc announcers raving about .Marincin.

    They say oilers gave up on him because not physical.

    Leaf coaches say all big men are not necessarily physical..

    They must like him because he played huge minutes.

    He is useless because he was an Oiler. Now he is a brief he is the greatest thing since slice bread. Just like Petry

  42. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy:
    *SPAM*

    New post at Because Oilers:

    “In Search Of……Right Handed Dmen for the Oilers”

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/03/in-search-of-right-handed-defensemen.html

    Bonus: “See Leonard Nimoy’s Awesome Mustache!”

    *END SPAM*

    Did you do the calculations for just right handed D or all?

    it would be interesting to see where Oilers left handed D would rank in regards to others in the league.

  43. Acumen says:

    It sucks, and I hate it, but I was saying the same things regarding Reinhart and Marincin on draft day, and so were many others. Great as Chia has been since that day, I think he lost out on his guy and made the kneejerk move for Griffin, and the Marincin move was simply bad Intel from any combination of Green, MacT and Lowe you can piece together. He has to wear that.

    Reinhart terrified me when there were rumors he would supplant Yak as the 1OV in 2012, he underwhelmed me by eyes and by numbers all through junior, and he infuriated me on draft day last year through no fault of his own. I’ve tried to get behind him since but he hasn’t shown me a single damn thing, again, by eye or by number all year. I have no malice towards him, but he is not good and I simply don’t see anything beyond a Greg DeVries at the absolute high end there. And Greg DeVries aint worth a first and a second at any point in his career.

    It was a bad day for Chiarelli in terms of Defense. But he also locked down the goaltending for the first time since Roloson, and has been aces since. He doesn’t get a pass, but he doesn’t wear the horns. Whoever advised him on Marincin, and I have my suspicions, will get my eternal disgust.

    I’m fully confident that the future will bear that out as another Petry moment.

    But CB, be assured, we all heard you, and we were all with you. For one rare shining moment, that was the case.

  44. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: Lots of people said the Reinhart trade was an overpay and lots of people said trading Marincin was a bad idea.

    Indeed… strange set of moves on which to claim unique foresight.

    ————
    Any idea on why the Finn’s ELC is just the one year? Usually these are 2 year deals, no? LIke Iiro’s?

  45. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: McLeod looks pretty fantastic.

    Thanks

  46. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: Did you do the calculations for just right handed D or all?

    it would be interesting to see where Oilers left handed D would rank in regards to others in the league.

    Rankings are via all 188 Dmen who played at least 1000 5v5 min in the last two years.

  47. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Indeed… strange set of moves on which to claim unique foresight.

    ————
    Any idea on why the Finn’s ELC is just the one year? Usually these are 2 year deals, no? LIke Iiro’s?

    It must be due to his age. I have been looking at his numbers and it is a curious signing at this time of year.

  48. Woodguy says:

    Ryan: Raving about Manson AND no shout out to ME?

    C’mon man, you’re better than that.

    Did we discuss Manson? If so, I don’t remember it, please link to that conversation.

    I’ve been working on this for a couple weeks and Mason rose to the top quickly.

    I even mentioned him on LT’s show this past week.

  49. Little Poteet says:

    Bad Seed,

    His car has six speeds and he knows a thing or two about driving, if there is ever a concern

  50. Caramel Batman says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Indeed… strange set of moves on which to claim unique foresight.

    Really? Because I was here and criticized the Reinhart and Marincin deals and was absolutely crucified for it by the groupthink disintelligentsia. It continued for the rest of the summer, so much so that I almost didn’t come back.

  51. Caramel Batman says:

    That’s an excellent article on Marincin. This quote is money:

    “Human memory is amazingly amorphous and flexible – often to negative outcomes when we think about player evaluation. We fixate on relatively rare events and blow them up to much greater significance than is warranted, usually in an effort to confirm our preconceptions about the player we are watching.”

    This should be repeated at the beginning of every thread. If it was we wouldn’t have to have endless conversations about guys like Korpikoski. I know, I know, he does the little things.

    But guess what, you can’t judge players based upon your eyes. Because your eyes lie and your memory fails. That’s the whole point of counting things and writing them down. To put your eyes to the test, not the other way around.

    The test of the numbers can never be your eyes. The test of the numbers is your reason.

  52. Lowetide says:

    Caramel Batman: Really?Because I was here and criticized the Reinhart and Marincin deals and was absolutely crucified for it by the groupthink disintelligentsia.It continued for the rest of the summer, so much so that I almost didn’t come back.

    Right after the draft ended, I wrote about both things, and the comments mostly agreed that the Reinhart trade was an overpay and the Marincin trade was very worrisome. I have no doubt someone disagreed with you, but I do not recall it and there was no universal outrage.

  53. Chachi says:

    “I was right all along and none of you stupid fucks would listen to me even after I pointed out how stupid you stupid fucks were! Fuck all you moronic lemmings! Why won’t anyone listen to me!?”

  54. Caramel Batman says:

    Lowetide: Right after the draft ended, I wrote about both things, and the comments mostly agreed that the Reinhart trade was an overpay and the Marincin trade was very worrisome. I have no doubt someone disagreed with you, but I do not recall it and there was no universal outrage.

    I just went back and read the last page of the thread. And it turns out it wasn’t as bad as I remembered.

    So just like I always say. Never trust your memory. Even your own.

  55. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Marincin’s HDSCA numbers were poor in Edmonton. Last season they were around Schultz, and far from Nikitin/Fayne/Petry. 2 seasons ago he was 2nd worst next to Schultz.

    This year they are a lot better, playing with a box protecting D (Polak) in butter soft minutes.

    This is one narrative I won’t find myself behind. He hasn’t done anything

  56. Chachi says:

    Lowetide: It must be due to his age. I have been looking at his numbers and it is a curious signing at this time of year.

    Are they throwing a bone to a scout? Is Frank Musil still out in the European wilds? Maybe he is a little sour that his boy was passed over on the call ups again?

  57. Younger Oil says:

    The reason why I hate/hated the Reinhart trade was that he didn’t fill an immediate need, and wasn’t measurably better than what we already had.

    We already had Klef, Nurse, and Marincin as big, early 20’s LHD. Already had a glut of LHD in the system, including prospects like Davidson. Reinhart isn’t/wasn’t an obvious upgrade on any of them, and the 16th and 33rd in a deep draft to acquire Reinhart when you already have multiple players filling similar roles really isn’t justifiable IMO.

    I wasn’t against trading those picks, and I don’t hate the player, but was just furious that management thought that the gap between Reinhart and Marincin, or Reinhart and Davidson was worth the 16th and 33rd.

    Man, was I mad that day. Turned off the TV as soon as that trade was announced, and was fuming the rest of the day, on the day that Connor freaking McDavid became an Oiler.

    Definitely an overreaction, and I definitely had a bias towards Marincin, and I’ll still cheer like hell for Reinhart, but man, I just thought they could have done so much better.

    I’ll stop beating the dead horse now though.

  58. Rondo says:

    Blame it all on Boston if they would followed the script they would have taken Barzal in one of their 3 picks. So the story goes on the NYI side. #16 +#33 in a strong draft perhaps NYI would have taken the deal w/o Barzal.

    I hated the deal right from the start , but I do remember reading here Reinhart was not even a #1 D on the AHL he played for.

    Someone in management had a crush on Reinhart and needed to have him even though it was apparent his skating was an issue.

    There are mistakes and then there are bad mistakes this was a bad one. Covered up because of McDavid

  59. BONVIE says:

    Caramel Batman: Does anyone remember when I hated the Reinhart trade because there was no evidence that Reinhart was better than Marincin, let alone worth a first round pick and a second round pick.

    This is one I told you so I am never going to let go.

    Remember this the next time you have blind faith in Chiarelli.

    You are still just as wrong now as you were then. You constantly bashing Reinhart does not make him less likely to be a very good defenseman for the Oilers for years to come. He had a great game against Phoenix and will contine to make strides.

  60. Yeti says:

    Caramel Batman: So just like I always say. Never trust your memory. Even your own.

    This is possibly even more relevant when posting in an overly caustic and cocksure style that continually polarises debate, elicits equally toxic replies, and probably lives long in the memory (despite the fact that many of your posts are very insightful in content, and the flareups don’t represent the tone of the discussion in general). In short, posting with a little more humility and grace might improve both the experience and your memory of it! Just a thought…

  61. GCW_69 says:

    BONVIE: You are still just as wrong now as you were then. You constantly bashing Reinhart does not make him less likely to be a very good defenseman for the Oilers for years to come. He had a great game against Phoenix and will contine to make strides.

    David staples latest look at the new comers is up and it doesn’t look great for Reinhart. Staples has him back in the AHL next season, at least to start. That should be worrisome, even if you don’t fully agree with how he tracks his stats.

    “His latest stint on the Oilers hasn’t gone great. In fact, it’s been just passable. …he’s not consistently demonstrating he is ready to contribute to a winning team.”

    Someone who knows were to look know how sheltered Reinhart has been?

  62. Pajamah says:

    Horcoff was hated because of a contract, not his level of play.

    Now people want to shit on Reinhart because of his cost, not his level of play (he is still a rookie defenseman)

    To all those who claim “I told you so”, its impossible to win a race when you haven’t even put the car into drive.

    How about we let him develop, see what he turns into, and you know, actually discuss his merit as a player once he gets there.

  63. hags9k says:

    It’s sad in a way that players now are always judged in terms of asset management and salary cap.

    Guys like Reinhart and Yak are perfectly lovable Oilers, but suffer because people cannot separate them from the circumstances of their procurement.

    I vow to never mention salary caps and UFA status etc to my 3 year old son. I want him to enjoy all the players for who they are on the ice, and that’s it.

  64. Finn (Part One) | 2nd Tier Thinkers says:

    […] (source: Lowetide): […]

  65. Finn (Part Two) | 2nd Tier Thinkers says:

    […] (source: Lowetide): 13 […]

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