THE IDES OF MARCH

by Lowetide

As we discussed this morning, the Edmonton Oilers are probably going to blow up some of this talent-rich roster over the summer. Through the next while, I think we should talk about possible destinations for some of these young phenoms—and possible return. Let’s start with Peter Chiarelli’s shopping list:

  1. Top-pairing D to partner with Klefbom (Travis Hamonic)
  2. Second-pairing D to partner with Sekera (Sami Vatanen or Jason Demers)
  3. Third-line C if they trade Nuge (Nuge)
  4. Scoring winger if they trade Eberle (Laine)
  5. Offload unwanted contracts (Fayne, Korpikoski)
  6. Backup goalie (could also be a G who slots below Brossoit but has NHL experience)
  7. Re-stock the system (major needs in goal, scoring forwards)

So, as we begin looking at possible destinations, we should keep the list above in mind. We might also discuss the idea of trading for a LH defender if the value is there, and then finding a RH option via free agency (Demers being a strong possibility in a case of that kind).

https://twitter.com/SportsnetSpec/status/688132178912227329?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Probably a good idea to start with this deal. If the Oilers offered Nuge for Seth Jones, and we don’t know if there were pieces added on each side, then maybe there is a chance for Edmonton to make a similar deal with the Blue Jackets. Fair? I mean, the Blue Jackets badly need a center, and the Nuge is a valuable piece of any future. Question: Would CBJ trade out Jones that quickly? My guess is no. Ryan Murray? A lefty. Would the Oilers run Brandon Davidson and Andrej Sekera on RH side?

  • Klefbom—Sekera
  • Murray—Davidson
  • Nurse—Fayne

ST. LOUIS

If the Oilers trade the Nuge to St. Louis, I would think the deal could end up being mammoth. Edmonton might be interested in Alex Pietrangelo or Kevin Shattenkirk (I don’t think Shattenkirk would sign here long term). Would the Blues consider as part of a major shakeup? These two teams may both want to shuffle the deck this summer.

  • Klefbom—Pietrangelo
  • Sekera—Fayne
  • Nurse—Davidson

NEW JERSEY

The Devils have like four forwards signed for next season, and the Nuge would be a very nice addition to a young and emerging group. Darcy McLeod’s piece the other day had Adam Larsson as a very valuable item.

  • Klefbom—Larsson
  • Sekera—Fayne
  • Nurse—Davidson

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

I go back to my original point on this issue. No matter who we talk about in terms of leaving, we are likely approaching it backwards. The ask from the other side is the thing. If you look at Darcy’s list of attractive defenders, and then imagine the ask for each, it becomes fairly obvious that pretty much everyone is in play—with the critical point being the intersection of bona fide defenseman and acceptable pain—and the point at which Peter Chiarelli signs off on a deal. It could be one of these teams and it could be the Nuge. It seems as likely as Eberle, the draft pick or any number of combinations.

 

 

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Bruce McCurdy

David Savard is a righty.

Centre of attention

Your not helping with my anxiety, LT.

russ99

We need to aim a lot higher than Larsson and Murray. Not to
mention isn’t this bad revisionist history with our own picks?

Neither is top pairing and for that matter neither is Klefbom.

Sekera has earned that role until Klefbom stays healthy and plays a more complete game.

Chiarelli has a unique shot this summer to fix the gaping wound that is our defenseman corps and I hope he can do a lot better or next year could be another building year, what none of us want to see.

Bohologo

Trading one of the golden children would amount to a tremendous deal of acute pain.

Another losing season would amount to months of chronic pain.

I mean, we’re talking mental anguish here, that kind of pain. Plus any accompanying hang-overs.

But still.

Bad Seed

russ99,

He did aim higher – Pieterangelo. Not high enough for you? Name some names.

John2123

Just reading through the tea leaves a bit, it was rumored Minnesota had made a pitch for Johansen involving Brodin and Neiderreiter (https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/47gh6m/wild_beat_writer_reports_that_minnesota_offered/). If Minny is still hunting for a center, I wonder if they kicked tires on Nuge at all before the deadline? Aside from Brodin being a left shot, his familiarity with Klefbom would be a plus.

sliderule

Nurse Davidson will be vaulting over that whole list.

The oilers don’t know how Klefbom will recover from injury and lost time so that is a problem pencilling him in as top pair.

Old coach tells me if Fayne is in top four forget about playoffs.

Draft Chychrun and within two years you will have a real top four D we keep begging for.

Walter Sobchak

How come the talk always revolves around one of the 6 million dollar and never around say Nurse?

Besides Cap issues, why is it palatable to trade a centre with Experience and not a rookie prospect?

frjohnk

Woodguy

Posting this here, in case you don’t look at LT’s last post.

If we had a top 4 D core of

Klefbom
Hamonic
Sekera
Davidson

how would they rank to other teams in your metrics?

Thanks

Woodguy

Posted this in the last thread for Padre John,

Thought it might have some value in this discussion:

You asked for where the LHD for the Oilers would land using my table of metrics (which is by no means complete or even proven useful at this point)

I had to expand the sample to 200 Dmen (from 188) so the TOI could include Davidson.

Remember that my tables only include RHD so I have no idea of their overall or total rank via the tables if it included LHD too.

Here’s what I got.

Total score:

Davidson 997 – near the top of 2-2.5 pairing Dmen, top of 3rd.

Klefbom 876 – around 10th for 1-1.5 pairing Dmen (around Larsson and Carlson)

Sekera 681 – around 17th for 1-1.5 pairing Dmen (right next to Petry and Hamonic)

Ference 274 – lower than any score of any RHD in the sample

Nurse 182 – Ummmm. yeah.

We need to forgive Nurse some of this because he should have never been anywhere near 1st pair, but some it still makes me uneasy.

Nurse scored low in all 7 categories, but was truly abysmal in 2:

HDSCA/CA – Ratio of shot attempts that become High Danger Scoring Chances – 4th Worst in entire league (scored a 4)

Pts/60 – 5v5 pts/60 – .23pts/60 was the worst in the entire league. (scored a 1)

CA/60Rel – how does the team’s shot attempts against when he’s on the ice stack up against his team mates – 19th worst in the NHL

GoalsForON – GoalsForOFF – Does the team score more with him on the ice or off? 21st worst in the NHL

CF/60Rel – how does the team’s shot attempts for when he’s on the ice stack up against team mates -43

RelSCF% – What is the ratio of Scoring Chances For/Against when he’s on the ice – 45
FA/CA – Fenwick/Corsi – how many shots attempts get blocked – 49

Woodguy

frjohnk:
Woodguy

Posting this here, in case you don’t look at LT’s last post.

If we had a top 4 D core of

Klefbom
Hamonic
Sekera
Davidson

how would they rank to other teams in your metrics?

Thanks

Ha!, just did it.

Imma gonna hafta rank every NHL Dman to include the lefties in order to get a good answer.

Will do it,not sure when.

leadfarmer

John2123,

Yes they are looking for a center but no way I do that trade unless Suter is coming with him. Cause not only do you lose that trade on day one but you also lose it going forward.

Jonas Brodin -85 in the HDSCa battle when compared to last year (-25 compared to +65) and 2.2 HDSCA/60 more than last year. We need guys that can help now not guys that need to be somewhat sheltered and they may grow into what we need in a few years. I don’t trade a lower tier #1C/Upper level 2C ( wherever on the spectrum your opinions of the Nuge are) for a second pairing defensemen no matter how badly I need a defenseman

Mr DeBakey

Question: Would CBJ trade out Jones that quickly? My guess is no. Ryan Murray? A lefty. Would the Oilers run Brandon Davidson and Andrej Sekera on RH side?

So the idea is
Trade Nuge for a 2nd-pairing leftie, so that two current lefties can move over to play on the Right Side. One of those two, Davidson, has been quite spotty on the Right Side.

Sign me up!!!!

Mr DeBakey

russ99: We need to aim a lot higher than Larsson and Murray. Not to mention isn’t this bad revisionist history with our own picks?
Neither is top pairing and for that matter neither is Klefbom.

He’s talking about Adam Larssen, 1st paring RHD for New Jersey.

Halfwise

I can’t see Nuge being traded before other options are exhausted. He’s 1C material for half the teams in the league, and he’s ripe, but he’s undervalued because his numbers are not elite.

A scoring winger and the high pick ought to get the conversation started for anyone named in LT list today.

I say this backed by the full force of my insider knowledge and connections, which are non non-zero. My wishful thinking, on the other hand, is non-zero.

Woodguy

leadfarmer:
John2123,

Yes they are looking for a center but no way I do that trade unless Suter is coming with him.Cause not only do you lose that trade on day one but you also lose it going forward.

Jonas Brodin -85 in the HDSCa battle when compared to last year (-25 compared to +65) and 2.2 HDSCA/60 more than last year.We need guys that can help now not guys that need to be somewhat sheltered and they may grow into what we need in a few years.I don’t trade a lower tier #1C/Upper level 2C ( wherever on the spectrum your opinions of the Nuge are) for a second pairing defensemen no matter how badly I need a defenseman

What if you could get Spurgeon and Coyle for RNH + 2nd rounder/prospect?

Woodguy

frjohnk:
Woodguy

Posting this here, in case you don’t look at LT’s last post.

If we had a top 4 D core of

Klefbom
Hamonic
Sekera
Davidson

how would they rank to other teams in your metrics?

Thanks

They’d probably be low-middle to low end for a top 4.

Mustard Tiger
Water Fire

Woodguy: What if you could get Spurgeon and Coyle for RNH + 2nd rounder/prospect?

Spurgeon is Yak territory. His size mitigates his value. They have Yak 2 and Khaira instead of Coyle.

If Nuge goes its for a true top level D, no warts, or don’t do it. I’m confident Nuge can outscore Eberle and Yak 1 given the same usage. And do a heck of a lot more.

godot10

Mustard Tiger: https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/709834008994062336?s=09

That would suggest that it is an badly sprained MCL? Would it not?

Water Fire

Catching some of the Islanders game and Hamonic is distressingly like Fayne in style. Not moving fluidly and reacting to play – i.e. ‘defending’.

I don’t think I’m on board anymore, they have a. Fayne.

I’m down to Demers and/or a smart trade.

square_wheels

godot10,

That might have made my day, seeing the young man with just a brace on. I was dreading the news it was an ACL tear.

I guess it still could be, but I figure the Gords will present me that news sometime after we trade Nuge for a D that isn’t Petrilangelo.

square_wheels

Water Fire,

I’d hold out concluding anything on Hamonic until after they play one round of playoff hockey with him in a full shut down role.

As a connoisseur of skating, I would not put Travis anywhere near Fayne in ability.

square_wheels

Woodguy,

I’m listening to that call all friggin day if I’m Chia. Sturgeon has had a rough go lately, but he’s quality.

godot10

The Oilers defensive depth chart for next year should be:

Klefbom Acquisition #1
Sekera Acquisitioin #2
Nurse Davidson Gryba

Reinhart Osterle top pairing in Bakersfield
(plus Fayne if he is not traded)

The targets for #1:
1) Brent Burns (the 1st round pick and Eberle)
2) Travis Hamonic (probably Eberle OR the 1st round pick, the key component)
3) Alex Pieterangelo (would almost certainly require Nugent-Hopkins, but St. Louis has centres to send back)
4) Adam Larsson (would almost certainly require Nugent-Hopkins, but NJ has centres to send back)

The targets for #2:
1) Demers UFA and lots of money.
2) Vatanen (offer sheet)
3) Shattenkirk (probably requires the 1st round pick). High risk because he is not a guarantee to be willing to extend, and the salary would be in the $7 million range. Boxcars are expensive.
4) Dumba (would require Nugent-Hopkins in a bigger deal).

Two from group #1 would be like winning last year’s lottery.

Minimum required is two from group #2

TsuDhoNimh

I think this needs to posted again. From the Sail on article.

“Kiltymcbagpipes:
Good list I would only swap Hall with Nurse. While he is still young, trading away a 6’4, 21 yr old dman who hits, stands up for his teammates and can skate faster backwards than most guys forward is the best way to set your franchise back years. All he needs is time to develop and mature. Guys with his size/speed combo don’t grow on trees. If you play GM for a day knowing what you know about Chia and how much they’ve overplayed Nurse i’d say almost definitively they wont even consider trading him.

As for Hall, I would say while it’s unlikely he is moved I could see Chia moving for the right price. He is so frustrating to discuss here on Lowetide because many fans here can’t take off their bias glasses and look at his game objectively. I compare his game to Phil Kessel ( who ironically Chia traded). Terrific skater, “pushes the river” as people say and gets a lot of points but something is missing there. Not unlike Kessel there are many other facets to his game that is lacking. Fans seem to overlook these because of “his possession numbers” and he “pushes the river” and other fancy stats. Hall carries the puck too long, takes a ton of shots from terrible angles, make SEVERAL bad decisions with the puck EVERY game and attempts so many cross ice low percentage passes he kills rushes. Period. Yes he is a good player based on his offensive stats but when you carry the puck that much and shooting from everywhere you are going to get points. But it’s a team game and you kill momentum with the perimeter game. The Oilers have been this way for too long. We need more bangers who can get the puck deep, cycle the puck and cause fits for the defense. Hall and his “skate miles while he does a drive by shooting” is the opposite of that. It’s not the kind of hockey Tmac or Chia want to play.

Argue about the comparison all you want but in his first 6 seasons Kessel had four 30+ goal seasons. Hall has none. But, but, but nothing. PPG is only a stat. Did he score 30 goals or not? No. He could drop off a cliff any of those seasons he got hurt just like this year. Hall like Kessel is too much of a one man show and that doesn’t equate to wins. Why can’t he succeed with McDavid? Why can’t he adjust? Toews and Kane can when needed, Malkin-Crosby can when the team needs them. Hall “pushes the river” and is a good possession player because he plays an individual game not a team one.

Bottom line, its a team game not a one man show. The Bruins traded Phil Kessel who was coming off a 36 goal season and won the Stanley Cup the next year. Chia could easily recognize that and pull the trigger for a top dman and replace Hall with Lucic and feel good about it. While still unlikely, I wouldn’t list Hall as untouchable anymore.”

I would trade Hall before Nuge. Mostly because I think it gets you a better player in return, and we’ve seen what happens when we don’t have enough NHL quality centers.

godot10

TsuDhoNimh:

I would trade Hall before Nuge. Mostly because I think it gets you a better player in return, and we’ve seen what happens when we don’t have enough NHL quality centers.

Centres have more value than wingers because of the scarcity factor. Nugent-Hopkins is younger, signed for longer, and is a 200 foot player. More teams are looking for centres, especially if they are giving up a D. So it is not clear whether Hall gets on more in trade than Nugent-Hopkins.

Genjutsu

TsuDhoNimh,

These are the same arguments made against PK in Montreal.

square_wheels

Continuing my salary cap roster oddity tour that began with the Blues, I visited the Hurricanes tonight.

What an imbalanced mess, that has no real chance of anything other than mediocrity.

Not a single natural RW on the roster.

Just 3 forwards signed beyond next year, plus RFA’s.

Faulk and Hanifin likely untouchable. Slavin an emerging LHD, Pesce and Murphy emerging RHD.

Fleury (LHD) and McKeown (RHD). Kevin’s boy Keegan appears to be a depth D in the AHL, everyone relax.

If there is any team that needs offence from the right side and can spare defence, this is the organization.

Rask and Lindholm round out some solid C depth with Staal. Could there be a deal worked around Eberle for a RHD and some cap relief ?

Edit – calling them an unbalanced mess may be heavy handed, but this is an internal cap team that’s got a stable full of young D talent and not nearly the Fwd depth.

highgloveside

Halfwise,

Halfwise:
I can’t see Nuge being traded before other options are exhausted. He’s 1C material for half the teams in the league, and he’s ripe, but he’s undervalued because his numbers are not elite.

A scoring winger and the high pick ought to get the conversation started for anyone named in LT list today.

I say this backed by the full force of my insider knowledge and connections, which are non non-zero. My wishful thinking, on the other hand, is non-zero.

You are over valuing Nuge. He is a 2C on over 50% of NHL teams and that is reality. He doesn’t put up the offense to be a legit 1C for most teams. He would be considered a low end 1C. That said, he has way more value than a scoring winger or pick.

highgloveside

Woodguy: What if you could get Spurgeon and Coyle for RNH + 2nd rounder/prospect?

I’d take that all day.

John2123

leadfarmer,

I guess I should have clarified I don’t think it would be a good trade at all, either. I was moreso interjecting what I thought might have been out there at the deadline. I agree that Nuge is being undervalued in that scenario, but now that we’re on the topic, how much you want to bet most of the league might see that as a fair trade? When guys like Kelly Hrudey are dubbing Nuge a 3rd line center you’ve gotta wonder…

TsuDhoNimh

Lowetide,

Well I’m all ears if you want to tell me why he is wrong. I’m not a Hall hater, just seems that he gets a pass on his defensive miscues that no one else seems to is all.

Romulus Apotheosis

John2123: When guys like Kelly Hrudey are dubbing Nuge a 3rd line center you’ve gotta wonder…

When you can’t tell if trolling…

John2123

Romulus Apotheosis,

Umm.. Maybe I’m misunderstanding, but can you clarify exactly what about my comment makes you think I’m trolling?

Romulus Apotheosis

John2123:
Romulus Apotheosis,

Umm.. Maybe I’m misunderstanding, but can you clarify exactly what about my comment makes you think I’m trolling?

Say something about 2-way contracts or tell Bendelson to fuck off.

Send me a sign.

John2123

Romulus Apotheosis: Say something about 2-way contracts or tell Bendelson to fuck off.

Send me a sign.

Aaaaaand, you’ve lost me. I think I’ve had enough internet for tonight.

who

TsuDhoNimh:
Lowetide,

Well I’m all ears if you want to tell me why he is wrong. I’m not a Hall hater, just seems that he gets a pass on his defensive miscues that no one else seems to is all.

I agree. I am not a Hall hater either but I am curious why LT thinks RNH is available but Hall isn’t. Don’t you think after this year that Hall has more value than RNH (in the eyes of other teams) and would bring a better piece back in a trade. I don’t think we can eliminate him from the list of tradeable assets. For me MacDavid and maybe Drai are the only untouchable forwards.

Cassandra

Woodguy: What if you could get Spurgeon and Coyle for RNH + 2nd rounder/prospect?

That would be a slamdunk great trade. You could then use Eberle to get Hamonic, and Coyle to replace Eberle.

Now you have two scoring lines and a solid top five D (assuming Klefbom isn’t kidnapped by aliens).

But that’s the best possible scenario. I can’t imagine Minnesota going for that. It’s a terrible trade for them. They are going to try and pawn Brodin off on someone. I sure hope it isn’t us.

Honestly, you’d have to consider RNH for Spurgeon + a pick. There is no way you get Coyle and Spurgeon for one player.

Quinlan

How anyone, anyone, can look at this team and decide Taylor freaking Hall is the problem is incomprehensible.

Stealing from Woodguy’s excellent tweets a couple days ago:

“Oilers goal share with Taylor on the ice = 51.76%
Without Taylor on the ice = 38.62%

That’s leading by example”

The Kiltymcbagpipes argument reposted above admits Hall’s offensive numbers are very good and then proceeds to say he’s really not that good offensively. Yes he scores a bunch, and when he’s on the ice more good things happen than bad. Yes, he’s done this with crap all when it comes to a blueline behind him. Yes.

But he’s the problem.

As LT said, you can post this as often as you like – it will be wrong every time.

Centre of attention

Michael Pityk
‏@MPityk_PHI
NHL Scout “Edmonton is considering totally blowing up team over the offseason, only untouchables are top 2 centers (McDavid/Draisaitl)”

So whats that 2017 draft look like LT?

Ribzyrich

What if you were to go Nuge and a 2nd for Pieterangelo and Sobotka?

Does anyone know what Sobotkas status is for next year?

Chia would be familiar with him

square_wheels

Centre of attention,

Edmonton is wide open for business, let’s be honest with ourselves, we’ve been one of sports laughing stocks for a decade. In all honesty, I can’t wait for this summer.

Woodguy

Water Fire,

Spurgeon is Yak territory. His size mitigates his value.

Alrighty there Spec.

Hear you loud and clear.

Actual ability and track record need not apply.