G75 2015-16: AVALANCHE AT OILERS

We’re counting down (thanks Casey Kasem) to the end of the season, with Connor McDavid’s point total and Oilers total points the last remaining things that hold importance (work with me here, people).

TIME PASSAGES, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
  • Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
  • Oilers in December 2014: 2-8-4
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1
  • Oilers in January 2015: 5-7-1
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2
  • Oilers in February 2015: 5-6-1
  • Oilers in February 2016: 4-8-2
  • Oilers in March 2015: 5-6-3
  • Oilers in March 2016: 6-4-0
  • Oilers after 74 in 2014-15: 21-40-13, 55 points (-75 GD)
  • Oilers after 74 in 2015-16: 29-38-7, 65 points (-37 GD)

In G75 a year ago, the Oilers ripped through the Dallas Stars (!!!) 4-0, with Benoit Pouliot having a nice evening. The Oilers have a chance to post their second .500 month of the year, and they could also finish with 30 wins (first time since 2011-12 if they make it) and with 70 points (also first time since 2011-12, I think you could compare this team and that one—maybe we will).

DEFENSE, 2015-16

OILERS DEFENSE OVER SEASON

  • I wonder what metrics the Oilers use to evaluate their blue? If it is SCA/60, then Davidson, Klefbom, Gryba, Sekera, Nurse and Fayne would appear to be the best available. I don’t know, but it would be nice.
  • I suspect they value possession (‘shot volume’!) and hope they know what a friend they have in Mark Fayne. Please find six better before you deal him, Mr. Chiarelli.
  • Andrej Sekera is going to finish this season around 49 percent in possession. He won’t win team MVP, but he should get some votes.
  • Defensive rookie of the year? Brandon Davidson, without a throw. Those top 10 picks (Nurse, Reinhart) might be wise to spend some time with Davidson and pick his brain on the finer points of the game. It isn’t the worst idea you will read today.

CENTERS, 2015-16

oilers centers over season

  • Connor McDavid (37, 14-25-39) is still just coming into view. It takes awhile to comprehend the scale of greatness when it comes to giants. He is one. CM is the best rookie in the NHL this season, they won’t give him the Calder.
  • Leon Draisaitl (64, 18-30-48) has a chance to reach 50 points before Sam Gagner, or RNH (joke). A splendid season, a wonderful career on the way. Best German NHL player ever? We are about to find out.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (50, 10-22-32) is back and I don’t care really if the numbers don’t count up to what we expected. I have decided to enjoy these games in case this is the last of him as an Oiler.

OILERS LEFT WINGERS, 2015-16

OILERS LW OVER SEASON

  • Taylor Hall (74, 23-35-58) will lead the team in scoring again. He led the Oilers in points for the seasons ending 2013, 2014 and 2016.
  • Patrick Maroon (65, 6-13-19) has enjoyed a very nice run (9, 2-4-6) after arriving from Edmonton, and I think he might end up being the best of the mid-season additions in Chiarelli’s first year. Of course, I would have said that about Zack Kassian a month ago, so it is a moving target and will be for another season.
  • Benoit Pouliot (55, 14-22-36) has been missed. We would do well to remember that in the dog days of summer.
  • Jujhar Khaira may be a better player than Lauri Korpikoski, but he will need an injury next season to prove it.

RIGHT WINGERS, 2015-16

OILERS RW OVER SEASON

  • Jordan Eberle (61, 22-20-42) might have hit 30 with McDavid had he been healthy all year. Could he post 35 next season, if healthy? I would not bet against it.
  • Zack Kassian (28, 3-4-7) is probably on the team next year. Although the offense has been no screaming hell, and the penalties are a pain, Kassian’s agitating style and skill allows the Oilers to present a different look in California and other places.
  • Nail Yakupov (52-6-12-18)  is so close to 50 percent in possession, has a nice high-danger scoring chance number and I think he could push 2.00/60 with a good center. New Jersey should trade for him at the draft, as they did with Kyle Palmieri last year.
  • Iiro Pakarinen (57, 5-6-11) may catch Yak and Kassian at 5×5/60, and I think if that happens Todd McLellan will keep him for another season. Scratch that, I think it happens anyway.

ETHAN BEAR, DRAFT PLUS ONE

Ethan Bear had a good night last night, going 1-2-3 in a comeback win for Seattle over the Portland Winterhawks. A player in draft plus one season should take a big step forward, and Bear (plus Caleb Jones) have done exactly that this season. Here are some fairly recent D+1 performances by CHL defenders taken by the Oilers:

  1. Ethan Bear 68, 19-45-64 0.941
  2. Martin Marincin 67, 14-42-56 0.836
  3. Darnell Nurse 64, 13-37-50 0.781
  4. Caleb Jones 71, 10-44-54 0.761

And now, let’s compare Bear and Jones to recent top 20 overall selections in their D+1 seasons:

 

  1. Anthony DeAngelo 55, 25-64-89 1.62 (2014)
  2. Josh Morrissey 59, 28-45-75 1.27 (2013)
  3. Ivan Provorov 62, 21-52-73 1.18 (2015)
  4. Travis Sanheim 67, 15-50-65 0.970 (2014)
  5. Thomas Chabot 47, 11-34-45 0.957 (2015)
  6. Ryan Pulock 66, 23-40-63 0.955 (2013)
  7. Ethan Bear 68, 19-45-64 0.941 (2015)
  8. Nikita Zadorov 36, 11-19-30 0.833 (2013)
  9. Darnell Nurse 64, 13-37-50 0.781 (2013)
  10. Caleb Jones 71, 10-44-54 0.761 (2015)
  11. Samuel Morin 54, 7-24-31 0.574 (2013)
  12. Haydn Fleury 63, 6-22-28 0.444 (2014)
  13. Jakub Zboril 50, 6-14-20 0.400 (2015)

The best of the best (Seth Jones, Aaron Ekblad) made the NHL or scooted straight to pro (Julius Honka), but both men show well in draft +1 against prospects who held a much higher pedigree. The trick is to keep it going and stretch it out in draft +2—but at this point signing these two prospects looks like a no-brainer. Congratulations to the Oilers scouting staff, and to Philadelphia—Provorov and Sanheim will soon be joining Shayne Gostisbehere on a young and fabulous blue.

One final note: Darnell Nurse is not a feature player on this list. We are not judging the complete range of skills, only the offensive portion. Still, it does give us a different view of the player when placed next to his rookie NHL year (61, 2-6-8 .131). His current comparable among Oilers rookies in the last 10 seasons? Ladislav Smid (77, 3-7-10 .130). I know, I know, early days, but math doesn’t care if someone is a highly-touted prospect, math only cares about math. Math is telling us something about Darnell Nurse this year.

LOTTERY APRIL 30

The NHL draft lottery goes at the end of April, and the Oilers are in a good position currently to win one of the first four spots in the order. The top three seems established (Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi) but that middle area—No. 4 through No. 7—seems to be in flux. I posted my most recent 30 last Sunday and slotted Matthew Tkachuk, Jacob Chychrun, Mikhail Sergachev and Alex Nylander 4-7—then talked to a scout who told me the fourth best player in the draft is Olli Juolevi. That tells me that we are in the ‘we don’t know what we don’t know’ phase of the draft right now. Long stretch of highway before the final final.

OILERS CURRENT PICKS

  1. No. 3 overall (Puljujarvi likely)
  2. No. 33 overall (Carter Hart?)
  3. No. 63 overall
  4. No. 76 overall (Pittsburgh pick)
  5. No. 83 overall (Florida pick)
  6. No. 123 overall
  7. No. 148 overall (St. Louis pick)
  8. No. 153 overall
  9. No. 183 overall

I genuinely think the Oilers have to entertain offers for their first-round selection, and if the return addresses that defense, then Peter Chiarelli must pull the trigger. I don’t think many people believe it is the correct thing to do, but for me another phenom forward has less value to the Oilers than (possibly) any team in NHL history.

Peter Chiarelli added Cam Talbot, Andrej Sekera and Connor McDavid last summer. This summer, adding James Reimer, Jason Demers and Jesse Puljujarvi ignores the real issue. Now more than ever, he needs to add very smart bets on defense. Actual NHL players with some success against the other team’s best, who can play a two-way game—and that includes moving the puck consistently, and well.

That is his assignment. The pick has less value to Edmonton than any of the other 29 NHL teams. I believe this to be true.

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412 Responses to "G75 2015-16: AVALANCHE AT OILERS"

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  1. frjohnk says:

    “That is his assignment. The pick has less value to Edmonton than any of the other 29 NHL teams. I believe this to be true.”

    And that pick my have more value than a very good Dman like on a team like Nashville.

    In the case of an expansion draft, does Nashville protect 3D and 7F, or do they protect 8 skaters?

    If they protect 8 skaters, they are leaving a pretty good forward available.

    But if they trade one of their Dmen (Ellis/Eckholm) for a pick/forward they can protect more assets by protecting 3D and 7F.

  2. dustrock says:

    Are Draisaitl and Hall just not that great on the PP or are they not being used properly?

  3. Mr DeBakey says:

    Those top 10 picks (Nurse, Reinhart) might be wise to spend some time with Davidson and pick his brain on the finer points of the game. It isn’t the worst idea you will read today.

    You nailed it.
    The worst idea is coming along shortly.

  4. speeds says:

    frjohnk,

    Can make same argument re: EDM keeping the pick, retain a solid young asset they likely won’t have to protect in expansion draft freeing up a spot to protect another player.

  5. Mr DeBakey says:

    I genuinely think the Oilers have to entertain offers for their first-round selection, and if the return addresses that defense, then Peter Chiarelli must pull the trigger. I don’t think many people believe it is the correct thing to do,

    Until this week I absolutely believed it was the best thing to do.

    I haven’t yet worked out the ramifications of the pending Expansion Draft. This morning my beliefs are on hold. But I’ll have some rockin’ ones soon.

  6. böök¡je says:

    I have to make my annual suggestion of a Ramones RE – I don’t Wanna Go Down to the Basement(McLellan), Beat on the Brat (Nurse), Somebody Put Something in My Drink (Yak), Commando (Hall), Needles and Pins (McDavid), I Wanna Be Sedated (Ference) , I Believe in Miracles (Talbot), Cretin Hop (Kassian), Blitzkrieg Bop (?), Go Mental (?), Mama’s Boy(?), Animal Boy (?), Howling at the Moon (?), Now I Wanna Sniff Some Glue (?), Psycho Therapy (?), etc…

    Lots of options…

  7. Mr DeBakey says:

    What Speeds said.

  8. flyfish1168 says:

    Hi LT

    With the expansion draft coming soon, I believe this draft and the next one to have more importance especially if we are a lottery team. JMHO.

    What are your thoughts?

  9. Norman Greenbaum says:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvgUdrzGNys

    Call him Mr Raider, Call him Mr Wrong, Call him insane………Because he’s Mr Fayne.

    “I suspect they value possession (‘shot volume’!) and hope they know what a friend they have in Mark Fayne. Please find six better before you deal him, Mr. Chiarelli.”

    Can you clarify LT, you want to get six better dmen than Fayne before trading him? You’re that high on him? I would say Reinhart would take his place if we could move his contract. Sekera, Klefbom and Davidson are better. Now factor in the one, possibly two dmen added as well as the fact Nurse WILL get minutes, if not traded, then Fayne, like Ebs, may be the spare prick at the wedding.

  10. Norman Greenbaum says:

    Wow, there sure is a lot of Chicken Littling about the expansion draft.

    Absolutely we have to keep it in mind, but holy shit people, one, possibly two players per team. And we’re not a good team. There will be plenty of good players on other teams taken before Nurse etc.

    Important to remember, the new news will also be under cap constraint.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvMq2YZloZM

  11. Woodguy says:

    One final note: Darnell Nurse is not a feature player on this list. We are not judging the complete range of skills, only the offensive portion. Still, it does give us a different view of the player when placed next to his rookie NHL year (61, 2-6-8 .131). His current comparable among Oilers rookies in the last 10 seasons? Ladislav Smid (77, 3-7-10 .130). I know, I know, early days, but math doesn’t care if someone is a highly-touted prospect, math only cares about math. Math is telling us something about Darnell Nurse this year.

    Math only cares about math.

    So true.

    I got interested in “who else scored as low as Nurse in their rookie years via my Dman table” (must be 19-21 year old rookie)

    The results…. she’s not encouraging.

    Closest comp?

    Jack Johnson (3rd overall 2005 draft)

    Next two closest:

    Jared Cowen (9th overall 2009 draft)

    John Moore (21st overall 2009 draft)

    Math’s a real asshole.

  12. Lowetide says:

    flyfish1168:
    Hi LT

    With the expansion draft coming soon, I believe this draft and the next one to have more importance especially if we are a lottery team. JMHO.

    What are your thoughts?

    The Oilers are going to lose a good player in the expansion draft, just like most other teams. I believe the need to turn north, to get something out of McDavid’s entry-level deal, is more important.

  13. Woodguy says:

    I don’t think many people believe it is the correct thing to do, but for me another phenom forward has less value to the Oilers than (possibly) any team in NHL history.

    …..

    That is his assignment. The pick has less value to Edmonton than any of the other 29 NHL teams. I believe this to be true.

    I understand your sentiment, but your wording clouds it imo.

    I think you mean “using the pick on a player (other than the top 2) has less value to Edmonton than any of the other 29 NHL teams.

    The pick has a lot of value to Edmonton.

    Whether its:

    1) Using the pick on a player (Laine/Matthews) who would then replace a current roster player (Eberle/1 of the C’s) which then allows the roster player to be traded to fill a hole

    2) Using the pick to trade to fill a roster hole

    There is lots of value with that pick, but the value of drafting a Pulijarvi/Tchuck and waiting for him to arrive is certainly at an all time low.

  14. square_wheels says:

    Woodguy,

    We could argue his offence was never portrayed as “strong”, but the D zone habits are based on a speed and strength advantage that doesn’t translate.

    Giving up on young D though, such a risky bet, but leave it to this organization to get it wrong.

  15. hags9k says:

    “I don’t think many people believe it is the correct thing to do, but for me another phenom forward has less value to the Oilers than (possibly) any team in NHL history.”

    This 100%. It’s like hording away precious gems and then walking around with threadbare pants with holes in the pockets.

    Shop the pick for the best possible NHL RHD.

  16. Woodguy says:

    square_wheels:
    Woodguy,

    We could argue his offence was never portrayed as “strong”, but the D zone habits are based on a speed and strength advantage that doesn’t translate.

    Giving up on young D though, such a risky bet, but leave it to this organization to get it wrong.

    I’m not arguing giving up on him, but the early returns are not good.

  17. OilClog says:

    Sekera/Addition – not a suitable spot for a defender with foot speed issues and no offense.
    Klef/Addition – not a suitable spot for a defender with foot speed issues and no offense.
    Davidson/assortment – this spot will go to a bruiser under 2mil or a rookie.

    If we’re serious about playoffs, Mark Fayne is not here, if he is the cap is fucked, we lose talent to keep dead weight.

    Just looking at that chart, Fayne can’t be upgraded?

    Gord damn sky is falling

  18. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    I don’t think many people believe it is the correct thing to do, but for me another phenom forward has less value to the Oilers than (possibly) any team in NHL history.


    …..

    That is his assignment. The pick has less value to Edmonton than any of the other 29 NHL teams. I believe this to be true.

    I understand your sentiment, but your wording clouds it imo.

    I think you mean “using the pick on a player (other than the top 2) has less value to Edmonton than any of the other 29 NHL teams.

    The pick has a lot of value to Edmonton.

    Whether its:

    1) Using the pick on a player (Laine/Matthews) who would then replace a current roster player (Eberle/1 of the C’s) which then allows the roster player to be traded to fill a hole

    2) Using the pick to trade to fill a roster hole

    There is lots of value with that pick,but the value of drafting a Pulijarvi/Tchuck and waiting for him to arrive is certainly at an all time low.

    I mean that taking the pick and putting him in the linuep—along with (I assume) McDavid and Draisaitl means another season of kids in the lineup. If you take Laine, you are trading Eberle, which is fine, but you are once again developing players for other teams, with Eberle joining Petry, Marincin, and on and on.

    The Oilers have to turn north. The value of the pick to this team is less than Jordan Staal (for instance) to Pittsburgh in 2006.

  19. theres oil in virginia says:

    böök¡je:
    I have to make my annual suggestion of a Ramones RE – I don’t Wanna Go Down to the Basement(McLellan), Beat on the Brat (Nurse), Somebody Put Something in My Drink (Yak), Commando (Hall), Needles and Pins (McDavid), I Wanna Be Sedated (Ference) ,I Believe in Miracles (Talbot), Cretin Hop (Kassian),Blitzkrieg Bop (?), Go Mental (?), Mama’s Boy(?), Animal Boy (?), Howling at the Moon (?), Now I Wanna Sniff Some Glue (?), Psycho Therapy (?), etc…

    Lots of options…

    Gimme gimme shock treatment (Fans)

  20. hunter1909 says:

    Sad that some are dismissing Nurse, like he’s in the process of busting anything aside from all of the assorted heads he’s been cracking on behalf of the team. They stick him above his rookie level and then people whine when he comes up a bit flat? I’m pity your children, since you probably nag them in exactly the same way.

    It’s bad enough to see players like Chimera or Winchester flying at twice their usual pace in their zeal to beat the hated former team. Imagining Nurse will want to beat the Oilers, badly.

    Chiarelli’s no fool. He if anyone else around Northlands understands the value of a murderously tough defenceman. Oiler fans are a little too biatch slapped.

  21. square_wheels says:

    Woodguy,

    Sorry, was projecting what the Oilers could do with him, not specifically what you were implying. If another team drools over him and Chia can land an emerging RW then all this Demers/Hamonic concern no longer matters.

    We have the Ace of Spades in McD, but we must start winning some hands.

  22. Lowetide says:

    hunter1909:
    Sad the some are dismissing Nurse, like he’s in the process of busting anything aside from all of the assorted heads he’s been cracking on behalf of the team. They stick him above his rookie level and then people whine when he comes up a bit flat? I’m pity your children, since you probably nag them in exactly the same way.

    It’s bad enough to see players like Chimera or Winchester flying at twice their usual pace in their zeal to beat the hated former team. Imagining Nurse will want to beat the Oilers, badly.

    Chiarelli’s no fool. He if anyone else around Northlands understands the value of a murderously tough defenceman. Oiler fans are a little too biatch slapped.

    Absolutely true, he was asked to do too much and it could have an impact on his development. I go back to the lack of a buyout in the late summer.

  23. Gret99zky says:

    Mr DeBakey:

    You nailed it.
    The worst idea is coming along shortly.

    Justin Bieber RE series.

  24. speeds says:

    I don’t see the pick as having less value, not significantly anyways, I think it has pretty much the same value as it does to any team in EDM’s position in the standings. What I think we’re really seeing is how tired/exasperated/frustrated/whatever you want to call it many are with Edmonton missing the playoffs again.

  25. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: The Oilers have to turn north. The value of the pick to this team is less than Jordan Staal (for instance) to Pittsburgh in 2006.

    I don’t know. That cup in 09 seemed to be assisted by Jordan.

    They could have used him every season since they traded him too.

  26. meanashell11 says:

    To claim that Nurse is a bust is ridiculous. Same with Reinhart. I honestly do not care what the fancy stats said last game, these guys delivered where it counted, may have been a tire fire but they kept their heads above water. Same with Oesterle. Give anyone of these guys a decent partner and they can learn on the job. Remember how Oesterle looked with Davidson….. Those two looked like they had played years together and it worked (of course they have played years together!).

  27. Woodguy says:

    I’m not going to make a post on it at my blog until the table and its metrics are better and more refined but here’s what I’m playing around with:

    These are all the Dmen since 07/08 who played at least 60 games of their rookie season as a 19-21 year old:

    John Carlson
    Jared Cowen
    Michael Del Zotto
    Drew Doughty
    Alexander Edler
    Aaron Ekblad
    Justin Faulk
    Cam Fowler
    Jake Gardiner
    Erik Gudbranson
    Travis Hamonic
    Noah Hanifin
    Victor Hedman
    Erik Johnson
    Jack Johnson
    Seth Jones
    Erik Karlsson
    Oscar Klefbom
    Dmitry Kulikov
    Adam Larsson
    Kris Letang
    Hampus Lindholm
    Olli Maatta
    John Moore
    Ryan Murray
    Tyler Myers
    Matt Niskanen
    Darnell Nurse
    Dmitry Orlov
    Morgan Rielly
    Kris Russell
    Marco Scandella
    Luke Schenn
    Marc Staal
    P.K. Subban
    Jacob Trouba
    Nikita Zadorov

    So far I’ve rated:

    PIETRANGELO – VERY GOOD
    RUSSELL – ABOVE AVERAGE
    HAMONIC – ABOVE AVERAGE
    STAAL – AVERAGE
    RIELLY – AVERAGE
    NISKANEN – AVERAGE
    LARSSON – SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
    GUBRANSON – SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
    COWEN – BELOW AVERAGE
    MOORE – BELOW AVERAGE
    NURSE – NEAR BOTTOM
    JOHNSON – NEAR BOTTOM (MIGHT BE BOTTOM)

    I’ll rate the rest (or most of the rest) soon.

    I also looked at usage and most common partners and not common theme emerged.

    Most played down the roster and having a good vet as a main partner didn’t make a noticable difference, but who knows how good that vet was that year (i.e. Rob Blake at 37 with Jack Johnson) Was Johnson playing up the roster with Blake or was Blake playing down? Don’t know.

    Hamonic did very well in 2nd pair with the not so good Andrew MacDonald.

    Pietrangelo started 3rds with Colaiacovo then went to 1sts w/ Jackman.

    Its all over the place.

  28. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide,

    If you take Laine, you are trading Eberle, which is fine, but you are once again developing players for other teams, with Eberle joining Petry, Marincin, and on and on.

    No.

    Trading Petry and Marincin for picks was developing players for other teams.

    If you trade Eberle for Hamonic you are addressing a weakness.

    What comes back in a trade is pretty important to evaluating it.

  29. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy:
    I don’t think many people believe it is the correct thing to do, but for me another phenom forward has less value to the Oilers than (possibly) any team in NHL history.


    …..

    That is his assignment. The pick has less value to Edmonton than any of the other 29 NHL teams. I believe this to be true.

    I understand your sentiment, but your wording clouds it imo.

    I think you mean “using the pick on a player (other than the top 2) has less value to Edmonton than any of the other 29 NHL teams.

    The pick has a lot of value to Edmonton.

    Whether its:

    1) Using the pick on a player (Laine/Matthews) who would then replace a current roster player (Eberle/1 of the C’s) which then allows the roster player to be traded to fill a hole

    2) Using the pick to trade to fill a roster hole

    There is lots of value with that pick,but the value of drafting a Pulijarvi/Tchuck and waiting for him to arrive is certainly at an all time low.

    One way to think through the value of the pick is the value of the player as a trade chip down the line.

    For example, the Oilers can’t redo the Reinhart trade. But, we can think through what the value of

    Reinhart vs Barzal/Stephens

    would be on the open market this summer.

    I’m guessing Barzal/Stephens would provide a greater return.

    The basic idea being… maybe you can’t get a good offer for the pick at the time of the draft… so you take the pick and then flip the player down the line. (lots of risk in this obviously, like anything else).

  30. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy:
    I’m not going to make a post on it at my blog until the table and its metrics are better and more refined but here’s what I’m playing around with:

    These are all the Dmen since 07/08 who played at least 60 games of their rookie season as a 19-21 year old:

    John Carlson
    Jared Cowen
    Michael Del Zotto
    Drew Doughty
    Alexander Edler
    Aaron Ekblad
    Justin Faulk
    Cam Fowler
    Jake Gardiner
    Erik Gudbranson
    Travis Hamonic
    Noah Hanifin
    Victor Hedman
    Erik Johnson
    Jack Johnson
    Seth Jones
    Erik Karlsson
    Oscar Klefbom
    Dmitry Kulikov
    Adam Larsson
    Kris Letang
    Hampus Lindholm
    Olli Maatta
    John Moore
    Ryan Murray
    Tyler Myers
    Matt Niskanen
    Darnell Nurse
    Dmitry Orlov
    Morgan Rielly
    Kris Russell
    Marco Scandella
    Luke Schenn
    Marc Staal
    P.K. Subban
    Jacob Trouba
    Nikita Zadorov

    So far I’ve rated:

    PIETRANGELO – VERY GOOD
    RUSSELL – ABOVE AVERAGE
    HAMONIC – ABOVE AVERAGE
    STAAL – AVERAGE
    RIELLY – AVERAGE
    NISKANEN – AVERAGE
    LARSSON – SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
    GUBRANSON – SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
    COWEN – BELOW AVERAGE
    MOORE – BELOW AVERAGE
    NURSE – NEAR BOTTOM
    JOHNSON – NEAR BOTTOM (MIGHT BE BOTTOM)

    I’ll rate the rest (or most of the rest) soon.

    I also looked at usage and most common partners and not common theme emerged.

    Most played down the roster and having a good vet as a main partner didn’t make a noticable difference, but who knows how good that vet was that year (i.e. Rob Blake at 37 with Jack Johnson)Was Johnson playing up the roster with Blake or was Blake playing down? Don’t know.

    Hamonic did very well in 2nd pair with the not so good Andrew MacDonald.

    Pietrangelo started 3rds with Colaiacovo then went to 1sts w/ Jackman.

    Its all over the place.

    Aside from Nurse, how many of the others were playing on a team gunning for a decade out of the NHL playoffs?

    Not that this has any effect on anything.

  31. Woodguy says:

    hunter1909,

    Sad that some are dismissing Nurse, like he’s in the process of busting anything aside from all of the assorted heads he’s been cracking on behalf of the team. They stick him above his rookie level and then people whine when he comes up a bit flat? I’m pity your children, since you probably nag them in exactly the same way

    Pity my children?

    Stop being such an asshole.

    I’m giving results.

    Its not the results fault that they rate a player you like so low.

  32. Norman Greenbaum says:

    Gret99zky: Justin Bieber RE series.

    I’ll see your Bieber and raise you a One Direction and everything they stand for.

  33. Lowetide says:

    meanashell11:
    To claim that Nurse is a bust is ridiculous. Same with Reinhart. I honestly do not care what the fancy stats said last game, these guys delivered where it counted, may have been a tire fire but they kept their heads above water. Same with Oesterle. Give anyone of these guys a decent partner and they can learn on the job. Remember how Oesterle looked with Davidson….. Those two looked like they had played years together and it worked (of course they have played years together!).

    Who is suggesting Nurse is a bust? Really people. You have to be open to the conversation, or the exchange becomes worthless. There is nothing for me to respond to here, because you have framed it in a specific way. NO ONE is calling Nurse a bust, not that I have seen.

  34. Woodguy says:

    hunter1909: Aside from Nurse, how many of the others were playing on a team gunning for a decade out of the NHL playoffs?

    Not that this has any effect on anything.

    Here are their partners and who they played for and where that team finished that year:

    PIETRANGELO JACKMAN/COLAIACOVO STL 20TH
    RUSSELL TOLLEFSEN WESTCOTT CBJ 25TH
    HAMONIC MCDONALD NYI 27TH
    STAAL ROSIVAL NYR 9TH
    RIELLY GARDINER FANSON GLEASON RANGER TOR 23RD
    NISKANEN ZUBOV/NORDSTROM DAL 8TH
    LARSSON SALVADOR/GREENE NJD 9TH
    GUBRANSON JOVOCOP CAMPBELL FLA 14TH
    COWEN GONCHAR LEE OTT 16TH
    MOORE METHOT, CLITSOME, A.JOHNSON CBJ 30TH
    NURSE SEKERA SCHULTZ EDM 29TH
    JOHNSON BLAKE/MODRY LAK 29TH

    Shitty teams up and down the list so far.

    Sorry its so tough to read.

  35. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I vote for the kinks as you will never do a Floyd series.

    And, if you do go with solo artists after leaving bands, I’ll be eagerly awaiting who gets this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0qBaBb1Y-U

  36. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    Lowetide,

    If you take Laine, you are trading Eberle, which is fine, but you are once again developing players for other teams, with Eberle joining Petry, Marincin, and on and on.

    No.

    Trading Petry and Marincin for picks was developing players for other teams.

    If you trade Eberle for Hamonic you are addressing a weakness.

    What comes back in a trade is pretty important to evaluating it.

    And you are left with another rookie (Laine) to replace an established player. The Oilers have collected gems since 2010, time to turn those gems into something useful.

  37. kinger_OIL says:

    Woodguy,

    What part of LT’s comment: ” but for me another phenom forward has less value to the Oilers than (possibly) any team in NHL history” is cloudy?

    – Pretty clear LT is advocating using the pick for something more useful to the Oil than another young offensive phenom.

  38. Gret99zky says:

    If the Oilers keep the pick, or trade down a few spots they need to send the player down to develop.

    This madness of plugging an 18 year old rookie forward into the top 6F and a 20 year old rookie into the top 4D needs to stop.

    Stop developing players in the NHL with assignments they can’t handle!

  39. Norman Greenbaum says:

    I’m sure there’s a joke about bust(y) Nurse(s) here somewhere. LOL, Sorry to any ladies reading, more for the pun than the mild sexism.

    At home with three kids doing some housework. Had them for a week on my own as wife is in Tucson AZ on some well deserved R+R. My 11yo daughter and my two sons 4 and 2yo. Daughter’s been an amazing help and listening to BBC Radio 2 Sounds of the ’70s is keeping me sane. Because the Oilerssure as hell aren’t.

  40. Unwashed Oilfan says:

    Lowetide: And you are left with another rookie (Laine) to replace an established player. The Oilers have collected gems since 2010, time to turn those gems into something useful.

    OMG! This is why I love this site!! A person can engage in healthy debate with the author or anyone and not fear being banned like some pompous windshield fixing schoolyard bully does all the time. For the record, LT and young Jon are the only articles I read from the other side of the city.

  41. fifthcartel says:

    Re: Nurse

    I think its fair to ask questions about a struggling player, and look at other players who compare to him with what he’s done this season and then see what we might be able to reasonably expect out of him in the future.

    If the majority of comparables are concerning that would definitely be something to follow for future seasons. Is he on track with a line of mostly good players, or ones that make you go “ehhhh”?

    I don’t think he’s a bust by any means but there may be some readjusted expectations of what he is and what he isn’t.

  42. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: And you are left with another rookie (Laine) to replace an established player. The Oilers have collected gems since 2010, time to turn those gems into something useful.

    Ok, it’s more clear.

    I just think in the specific case of Laine/Eberle/Dman that it makes sense to keep the kid becuase:

    1) more likely to get a better Dman for a roster player than rook
    2) Since it’s a roster player (Dman) coming back you do not lower your roster player count
    3) Lowers your overall cap
    4) Smart people are talking about Laine as a larger version of Kurri and there’s a reasonable chance he outscores Eberle in the same spot very soon.

    Anything outside the top 2 and I’m with you.

  43. RexLibris says:

    Hey LT,

    CM is the best rookie in the NHL this season, they won’t give him the Calder.

    I believe this to be true as well. Unless McDavid does something beyond belief (relative to him) in front of every set of eyes in the Eastern media, it’ll be a toss-up between Panarin and Gostisbehere.

    It will be followed by a lot of hemming and hawing from some of the television media with phrases like “if he’d been healthy” and “we can’t just base it on a few games” and I’m certain somebody somewhere will have the temerity to utter the words “maybe the Oilers rushed him and that is why he was injured because he just wasn’t ready for the NHL”.

    But as you have said many times before, just remember who says what because McDavid is going to tear a hole in the old NHL the way some other young phenoms have in the past, and we’ll be the ones to take note of who is scrambling to try and be on the right side of history when that happens.

  44. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy: Pity my children?
    Stop being such an asshole.

    That’s impossible, and besides, being called an asshole by Woodguy is a badge of honour. I’m stating an opinion. I wasn’t targeting anyone in particular.

    Woodguy: I’m giving results.
    Its not the results fault that they rate a player you like so low.

    Your data strikes me as too insular, as in it’s still a little too hard to understand. Eventually you or one of your followers will solve this and then millions will join your worthy cause. Personally, I like to see how an individual player measures up throughout the season. Single game analysis is something I don’t have time for, but being able to see, say, Nail Yakupov’s game-to-game progress/regression through a season would be really truly interesting. Use different colors to denote using Red for good and Blue for bad, lol.

    As for Nurse, I like seeing him beat the crap out of the opposition. I add this to any value Nurse gets as a player. Similarly I take into account Kevin Lowe+MacT are still lurking around in the corridors of power, which doesn’t help anything except reach the ten years of total futility that Kevin+Craig have managed to “achieve” – at the Tier 1 fan’s expense.

  45. Woodguy says:

    fifthcartel:
    Re: Nurse

    I think its fair to ask questions about a struggling player, and look at other players who compare to him with what he’s done this season and then see what we might be able to reasonably expect out of him in the future.

    If the majority of comparables are concerning that would definitely be something to follow for future seasons. Is he on track with a line of mostly good players, or ones that make you go “ehhhh”?

    I don’t think he’s a bust by any means but there may be some readjusted expectations of what he is and what he isn’t.

    Thank you.

    Larsson had a pretty tough rookie season and now he’s doing well in 1sts w/ Greene for NJD.

    My biggest concern for Nurse is that he’s scores very, very low.

  46. Woodguy says:

    hunter1909: That’s impossible, and besides, being called an asshole by Woodguy is a badge of honour.I’m stating an opinion. I wasn’t targeting anyone in particular.

    Your data strikes me as too insular, as in it’s still a little too hard to understand. Eventually you or one of your followers will solve this and then millions will join your worthy cause. Personally, I like to see how an individual player measures up throughout the season. Single game analysis is something I don’t have time for, but being able to see, say, Nail Yakupov’s game-to-game progress/regression through a season would be really truly interesting. Use different colors to denote using Red for good and Blue for bad, lol.

    As for Nurse, I like seeing him beat the crap out of the opposition. I add this to any value Nurse gets as a player. Similarly I take into account Kevin Lowe+MacT are still lurking around in the corridors of power, which doesn’t help anything except reach the ten years of total futility that Kevin+Craig have managed to “achieve” – at the Tier 1 fan’s expense.

    The stuff is season data, not single game data.

  47. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: Ok, it’s more clear.

    I just think in the specific case of Laine/Eberle/Dman that it makes sense to keep the kid becuase:

    1) more likely to get a better Dman for a roster player than rook
    2) Since it’s a roster player (Dman) coming back you do not lower your roster player count
    3) Lowers your overall cap
    4) Smart people are talking about Laine as a larger version of Kurri and there’s a reasonable chance he outscores Eberle in the same spot very soon.

    Anything outside the top 2 and I’m with you.

    I’m torn on this because Eberle for Hamonic is a reasonable move, but I am very wary of the argument “just replace him with Laine” because that is the sort of thing that got this team into trouble in the first place.

    However, if the idea is to move Eberle for Hamonic then take his money to sign Lucic, letting Laine play within a mix of Hall, Pouliot, Draisaitl, Lucic, and Maroon, I’d be more comfortable.

    I still think Nurse for Hamonic might be the best route, and I really like a lot of what Nurse brings.

  48. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris:
    Hey LT,

    I believe this to be true as well. Unless McDavid does something beyond belief (relative to him) in front of every set of eyes in the Eastern media, it’ll be a toss-up between Panarin and Gostisbehere.

    It will be followed by a lot of hemming and hawing from some of the television media with phrases like “if he’d been healthy” and “we can’t just base it on a few games” and I’m certain somebody somewhere will have the temerity to utter the words “maybe the Oilers rushed him and that is why he was injured because he just wasn’t ready for the NHL”.

    But as you have said many times before, just remember who says what because McDavid is going to tear a hole in the old NHL the way some other young phenoms have in the past, and we’ll be the ones to take note of who is scrambling to try and be on the right side of history when that happens.

    McDavid’s farme and favorable rating with Eastern media will win out.

    I’d have McDavid as the favorite for the Calder.

  49. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: Ok, it’s more clear.

    In fairness to me, it was always clear to the group. 🙂

  50. jasontheschoolteacher says:

    Would be shocked to see Dallas let Demers go and if we can’t get a deal for Hamonic, who is left without giving the farm up? Savard? Shattenkirk will cost a fortune and bad contract with one year left only…I really like him but if Nurse has to be dealt to get what we need, we have no choice really. We are going to what skills Chia really has the next few months!

  51. Norman Greenbaum says:

    hunter1909: That’s impossible, and besides, being called an asshole by Woodguy is a badge of honour. I’m stating an opinion. I wasn’t targeting anyone in particular.

    To be extremely pedantic, pity is an emotion, not an opinion. I don’t wake up and say “in my opinion, I’m happy.” 😉

    You can pity my kids if you want. You’ll take it back after five minutes alone with them. There’s a reason I call them Charlie and Delta after the velociraptors from Jurassic World.

  52. sumaclab says:

    There are so many extraneous factors that are out of our control in all these future scenarios that it makes my head hurts. Trades.Draft picks. Free Agency. RFAs. The will and wants of other GMs. The KHL? All the things.

    Chiarelli has a laundry list. Some of the current laundry items will be done by the draft. Others after the time the Cap has been set.
    I would theorize that Chiarelli will wait and bide his time till after free agency and see where the dominoes fall. Especially Stamkos.
    The early exiters in this year playoffs wlll also set a part of the tone this summer. Especially if a team like St Louis burns out early. Other non play off teams like the Nucks will need to reassess their future.
    In all I will wait with bated breath and see where the chips fall this summer.

  53. Chachi says:

    Woodguy: Thank you.

    Larsson had a pretty tough rookie season and now he’s doing well in 1sts w/ Greene for NJD.

    My biggest concern for Nurse is that he’s scores very, very low.

    Nurse should have played in the AHL this year, but even there he would have scored very very low if he played the very very low minutes on the PP that he’s played in the NHL.

  54. jm363561 says:

    The pick has less value to Edmonton than any of the other 29 NHL teams. I believe this to be true.
    =======

    Totally agree. The last thing we need is another bright young thing.

  55. Primetime says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: One way to think through the value of the pick is the value of the player as a trade chip down the line.

    For example, the Oilers can’t redo the Reinhart trade. But, we can think through what the value of

    Reinhart vs Barzal/Stephens

    would be on the open market this summer.

    I’m guessing Barzal/Stephens would provide a greater return.

    The basic idea being… maybe you can’t get a good offer for the pick at the time of the draft… so you take the pick and then flip the player down the line. (lots of risk in this obviously, like anything else).

    I remember some people with a similar view point at the 2012 draft. We didn’t need another skill winger but allegedly no one wanted to give us an asset to trade down (including Columbus, probably due to recent Zherdev debacle). So the theory would be draft Yak and when he lights it up, you can trade him later for a Kings ransom to fill all our other holes…as we now know, there are lots of bends in the road that we can’t predict.

    The NHL is not yet a “draft for need” league like the NFL, but with the increasing use of rookie ELC contracts under the cap, it won’t be far. Trading the picks for someone they felt would be able to step in right away is not a bad theory…who they traded for and the extra pick/price can be debated though.

  56. Klima's_Bucket says:

    “Philadelphia—Provorov and Sanheim will soon be joining Shayne Gostisbehere on a young and fabulous blue.”

    The Flyers future on D is far from fabulous LT.
    All three of these guys shoot left.

  57. jasontheschoolteacher says:

    Nurse for Hamonic, then use Eberle or draft pick to get another d-man(Vatanen)…stars align…Get Lucic to replace Eberle. Maybe I need to attend church this morning…lol!!

  58. hunter1909 says:

    Norman Greenbaum: To be extremely pedantic, pity is an emotion, not an opinion. I don’t wake up and say “in my opinion, I’m happy.”

    At risk of furthering the pedantry, I don’t see the word “pity” in your quote.

  59. pocession charge says:

    Woodguy: McDavid’s farme and favorable rating with Eastern media will win out.

    I’d have McDavid as the favorite for the Calder.

    Wow he farms, too? What can’t this kid do?

  60. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris: I’m torn on this because Eberle for Hamonic is a reasonable move, but I am very wary of the argument “just replace him with Laine” because that is the sort of thing that got this team into trouble in the first place.

    However, if the idea is to move Eberle for Hamonic then take his money to sign Lucic, letting Laine play within a mix of Hall, Pouliot, Draisaitl, Lucic, and Maroon, I’d be more comfortable.

    I still think Nurse for Hamonic might be the best route, and I really like a lot of what Nurse brings.

    True, but playing 2nd toughs with McDavid is a pretty sweet spot and Eberle isn’t a vet who “calms the waters” , he’s pretty weak without the puck.

  61. Woodguy says:

    Chachi: Nurse should have played in the AHL this year, but even there he would have scored very very low if he played the very very low minutes on the PP that he’s played in the NHL.

    Scoring is only 1 of 7 metrics that I look at.

  62. fifthcartel says:

    Woodguy: Thank you.

    Larsson had a pretty tough rookie season and now he’s doing well in 1sts w/ Greene for NJD.

    My biggest concern for Nurse is that he’s scores very, very low.

    That’s what I’ve been curious about as well. Is there a lot of player who score similarly to Nurse that end up well or are we only looking at a few who bucked the trend?

    It’s something I wanted to look into myself but didn’t really have the time with school.

    As much as I love Nurse’s skating and toughness, there are other significant parts of his game I have some concerns about at this stage.

  63. Norman Greenbaum says:

    hunter1909: Woodguy: Pity my children?
    Stop being such an asshole.
    That’s impossible, and besides, being called an asshole by Woodguy is a badge of honour. I’m stating an opinion. I wasn’t targeting anyone in particular.

    hunter1909: Sad that some are dismissing Nurse, like he’s in the process of busting anything aside from all of the assorted heads he’s been cracking on behalf of the team. They stick him above his rookie level and then people whine when he comes up a bit flat? I’m pity your children, since you probably nag them in exactly the same way.

    hunter1909: At risk of furthering the pedantry, I don’t see the word “pity” in your quote.

    Sorry, didn’t know I’d have to reference the whole conversation. I just assumed you’d remember what you’d written. I should never assume. It makes an ‘ass’ out of ‘u’ and ‘me’.

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/science-technology/grammar-pedants-fewer-interesting-200809031225

  64. jasontheschoolteacher says:

    For me I do Nurse for Hamonic 100 out of 100 times. Hamonic plus unreal contract > Nurse and I like Nurse, but hat is the bottom line!!!

  65. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Primetime: I remember some people with a similar view point at the 2012 draft.We didn’t need another skill winger but allegedly no one wanted to give us an asset to trade down (including Columbus, probably due to recent Zherdev debacle).So the theory would be draft Yak and when he lights it up, you can trade him later for a Kings ransom to fill all our other holes…as we now know, there are lots of bends in the road that we can’t predict.

    The NHL is not yet a “draft for need” league like the NFL, but with the increasing use of rookie ELC contracts under the cap, it won’t be far.Trading the picks for someone they felt would be able to step in right away is not a bad theory…who they traded for and the extra pick/price can be debated though.

    The idea isn’t without risk (as noted. also, nothing is) and one specific version of risk played out poorly, i.e., several years later this particular player is highly devalued, does nothing to change the structure or value of the concept.

  66. Norman Greenbaum says:

    fifthcartel: That’s what I’ve been curious about as well. Is there a lot of player who score similarly to Nurse that end up well or are we only looking at a few who bucked the trend?

    It’s something I wanted to look into myself but didn’t really have the time with school.

    As much as I love Nurse’s skating and toughness, there are other significant parts of his game I have some concerns about at this stage.

    I don’t really have concerns about Nurse’s game beyond that he’s so young and playing above where he should be at this time in his career. However, letting him develop AND playing meaningful games in next march don’t seem to be jiving. I think he would have great interest league wide as the Olde Tymee Hockey types love this kind of player, stats be damned. He would undoubtedly benefit from a year in the AHL as the first/second call up, not to ‘dominate’ as some people say, but to polish his NHL game.

    I see him as a luxury we can’t afford if we want to be better next year. At the moment, we’re farmers. Asset rich, cash poor. It needs to change.

  67. Henry says:

    RexLibris: I’m torn on this because Eberle for Hamonic is a reasonable move, but I am very wary of the argument “just replace him with Laine” because that is the sort of thing that got this team into trouble in the first place.

    However, if the idea is to move Eberle for Hamonic then take his money to sign Lucic, letting Laine play within a mix of Hall, Pouliot, Draisaitl, Lucic, and Maroon, I’d be more comfortable.

    I still think Nurse for Hamonic might be the best route, and I really like a lot of what Nurse brings.

    I’m enjoying the argument this morning. The smart guys on the blog seem to have had a decent night sleep. I wonder how that correlates with the Oilers not playing on HNIC the night before.

    Eberle for Hamonic is a reasonable move as it saves money and fills a season-eating sinkhole. It also leaves a monster gap at RW. The Oilers started the season 0-5 without Eberle. This hole could be easier to fill than a top RHD.

    Swapping 1sts and getting Hamonic or better is probably better unless it is a top two pick. Then it’s up to the scouts.

    The idea of signing Lucic makes me very nervous. The Oilers have to budget with the assumption that Draisatl could get a big offer sheet next year and McDavid will get a max offer sheet from Lou the year after. Plus the ‘fact’ (in my mind) that the Lucic player type gets slower with age at an alarming rate.

    Carefully budgeted free agent money has to be spent on the blue.

  68. Chachi says:

    Woodguy: Scoring is only 1 of 7 metrics that I look at.

    Gotcha. I will say that he sure looks better than Smid ever did as a rookie and Ladi had a full season in the AHL, I believe, before he played for the Oilers. So you might say it is a bit misleading to point out that Smid is his closest comp. That is just my feeling on this, I get the math is popping up red flags like crazy.

  69. kinger_OIL says:

    Norman Greenbaum,

    – The problem is you have all of Nurse/Griff/Osterle/Davidson/(Gryba maybe?), that on a good team, one is playing @5/6, with a vet, or you have just a really good top 4 and the bottome two can play 12-14 mins, zone protected, and grow.

    – This is a better problem than previous OIL: i.e. not enough NHL D, but it’s still an issue

  70. Primetime says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Yep, and don’t disagree with the concept, in theory it is a reasonable gamble. On a different organization with more depth and time to allow newly drafted prospect (eg. Barzal) to develop properly in the system or on the big club with veteran help, their trade value may in fact be retained and useful. Unfortunately, the BOTB/Katz have gifted us with this mess….

  71. gnikkles says:

    Lowetide: If you take Laine, you are trading Eberle, which is fine, but you are once again developing players for other teams, with Eberle joining Petry, Marincin, and on and on.

    But is there value in adding players to McDavid’s age range and starting to move the cluster towards his direction? The cupboard is pretty bare.

    I dont see this team being fixed in one summer, this is probably a three year job. That is why I am in favor of keeping the pick and trading Eberle instead (not Nuge though).

    Its also why i wish they would have drafted Barzal and kept the 2nd rounder in the Reinhart trade. I’d rather they add to the talent pool around McDavids age range.

  72. Cahoon says:

    fifthcartel:
    Re: Nurse

    I think its fair to ask questions about a struggling player, and look at other players who compare to him with what he’s done this season and then see what we might be able to reasonably expect out of him in the future.

    If the majority of comparables are concerning that would definitely be something to follow for future seasons. Is he on track with a line of mostly good players, or ones that make you go “ehhhh”?

    I don’t think he’s a bust by any means but there may be some readjusted expectations of what he is and what he isn’t.

    I totally agree with this. I also think that’s why if the Nurse for Hamonic trade is a possibility, even if you have to wait it out a bit with Snow, you do it.

    I also think that some people’s propositions for trades for Hamonic forget Snow is in a position of weakness, and maybe overvalue Hamonic a touch. Trading a guy who has been you points leader for 50% of his NHL career (Eberle) for a good not great top pairing defender (let’s not forget Fayne was playing top pairing in NJ) seems bad especially when the GM is a bit over a barrel.

    I also think those offering up a Klef for Hamonic trade are trading the better defenseman now and in the future in the deal to the team that is a bit over a barrel for the trade. That is mind boggling. Not how good GM’ing is done.

  73. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Primetime:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Yep, and don’t disagree with the concept, in theory it is a reasonable gamble.On a different organization with more depth and time to allow newly drafted prospect (eg. Barzal) to develop properly in the system or on the big club with veteran help, their trade value may in fact be retained and useful.Unfortunately, the BOTB/Katz have gifted us with this mess….

    Why are you waiting so long?

    You can trade the asset as soon as you draft him.

  74. flyfish1168 says:

    Lowetide: I mean that taking the pick and putting him in the linuep—along with (I assume) McDavid and Draisaitl means another season of kids in the lineup. If you take Laine, you are trading Eberle, which is fine, but you are once again developing players for other teams, with Eberle joining Petry, Marincin, and on and on.

    The Oilers have to turn north. The value of the pick to this team is less than Jordan Staal (for instance) to Pittsburgh in 2006.

    Hi LT

    I get the idea we need to turn up. But we need to be conscientious on asset management. I still feel trading one of the 6 million dollar players is a must. UFA signings due to CAP strap teams will help. Building the Mcdavid core since they are not affected by the expansion draft and retooling our needs with parts of the Hall group, we can still be competitive. This isn’t going to be an SC team in my view for another 3 years.

    I don’t want us to be a one or two year wonder. We can make this a competive and SC team for years if we mange our assests correctly. JMHO

  75. square_wheels says:

    Henry,

    The offer sheet route doesn’t scare me with McD because he’s worth every penny. Drai is another matter, he’s going to ask for the Hall/Ebs/Nuge 6M, which is why Chia could be considering trading Nuge and Eberle.

    The mind boggles with the intro of the expansion draft, of fucking course, the LA’s and Rags will come out of that scenario as winners.

  76. square_wheels says:

    Cahoon,

    Hamonic doesn’t have Snow bent over, it’s the other way around. I’ve said from the beginning, until he holds out or plays like total shit, Snow shrugs his shoulders and says tough luck and see you in Brooklyn this fall.

  77. murphy says:

    Hamonic is an upgrade but not enough alone for us to be competitive next year.

    Signing lucic has to be out of the equation, like others before have said, a waste of cap dollars when our D is so porous. Pick up cheap size like maroon and kassian, add one more to that group closer skill wise to maroon and we are “tuff, gritty,etc.” enough.

    If this years pick is top two and you have a chance at pietranglo, seth jones, or someone high end in a package deal that keeps hall and our 3 centers, go for it. If it’s not a top tier D or someone who looks close, then keep the pick, cash ebs for hamonic and try to get shattenkirk and convince him to stay or go really low end and keep fayne, add a hamonic or demers, and try to add cody franson who can help the PP for cheap from the 3rd pair.

  78. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: McDavid’s farme and favorable rating with Eastern media will win out.

    I’d have McDavid as the favorite for the Calder.

    I guess I’m just a cynical old sonofagun. 🙂

  79. russ99 says:

    The dismissal of Nurse and what he’s turning into, and the desire for three scoring lines and 6 puck moving defensemen are one in the same.

    How many playoff teams fit this profile? Not many, Plus things tighten up in the playoffs and being able to play a solid 2-way game and not getting dominated physically is necessary to get anywhere once we do get there.

    I want the Oiilers to win, not play pretty offensive hockey like its 1983 all over again, and dumping potentially difference making players that are early on their development curve to continue this MacTavish-driven “Oiiers hockey” ideal is harmful to reaching that goal.

    Glad the Oiiers coach and GM seem to see things the other way.

  80. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy,

    I may have missed it, but based on your QC metric, where does Nurse fall? Playing 1, 2 or 3?

  81. hunter1909 says:

    Nurse has the potential to become a version of Chris Pronger. Certain unnamed fans think this is good asset management. The trouble is, Lombardi in LA probably agrees with you and stole two of his Cup winning role players off the Oilers for dross.

  82. Cahoon says:

    square_wheels:
    Cahoon,

    Hamonic doesn’t have Snow bent over, it’s the other way around. I’ve said from the beginning, until he holds out or plays like total shit, Snow shrugs his shoulders and says tough luck and see you in Brooklyn this fall.

    You are right in the sense that Hamonic hasn’t played hardball yet. I think (and I don’t have a source, just my impression of the situation I’ll admit) that he has given an offseason trade as the timeline before he plays hardball with Snow.

  83. RexLibris says:

    If the Oilers were to try to trade Eberle to the Ducks for Vatanen there would have to be a number of other factors in play to A) make it affordable for the Ducks’ internal payroll and B) balance things out asset-wise.

    I’d wondered about Silfverberg and Vatanen in return for Eberle and a mix of prospects/picks.

    The Oilers could plug Silfverberg on the right side to run with Draisaitl and perhaps their draft pick from this season, and Vatanen is a terrific young 2nd pairing RHD who would thrive with a steady defender.

    The Ducks win the deal based on talent, but would need something else to give up both Vatanen and Silfverberg and they’d need to be affordable as well, hence picks/prospects.

  84. RexLibris says:

    Cahoon: You are right in the sense that Hamonic hasn’t played hardball yet. I think (and I don’t have a source, just my impression of the situation I’ll admit) that he has given an offseason trade as the timeline before he plays hardball with Snow.

    My reading of the situation was that this was implied, he’d play out the season but notice was given and there would be an expectation of accommodation at some point.

  85. Norman Greenbaum says:

    hunter1909:
    Nurse has the potential to become a version of Chris Pronger. Certain unnamed fans think this is good asset management. The trouble is, Lombardi in LA probably agrees with you and stole two of his Cup winning role players off the Oilers for dross.

    Pronger was never a role player, unless you count ‘Super Stud #1 D Man’ as a role.

    The operative word is ‘potential’. 10 years of developing potential in prospects. To address team needs, Nurse needs to show the skill of Pronger now, as well as the nasty.

    Lombardi dealt with previous regime. He’s also in a world of cap hurt. Seeing as Nurse wouldn’t get us Doughty, they may part with another, like Muzzin. But don’t hold your breath.

    Good asset management doesn’t just mean keep and develop. It’s also about providing LT’s glorious ‘Balance!’. It’s mainly about turning that potential into some sort of tangible success.

  86. fifthcartel says:

    RexLibris,

    I’ve thought about this exact scenario too. Silfverberg isn’t really overpaid but he’s only going to put up low 30’s point totals this year and if they want an Eberle (sounds like they do), than do they want they might want the Oilers to take salary back so they can sign Lindholm and and Rakell.

    Silfverberg would be a great fit. RH shot to replace Eberel’s on a team with very few, big and can skate really well where you’d want to try him with McDavid for sure..

  87. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy: Pity my children?
    Stop being such an asshole.
    I’m giving results.
    Its not the results fault that they rate a player you like so low.

    I was being 100% rhetorical..with the entire Lowetide universe randomly being “targeted”.

    I can fully understand Nurse having bad stats. He’s being mismanaged, with a chance he’s never going to develop properly. That being said, I’d never want to trade him simply on that meagre level of NHL experience. Not unless it’s 2005’s Chris Pronger returning, which means fuck the Islanders, and everyone else offering their disgruntled players.

  88. hunter1909 says:

    Norman Greenbaum: Good asset management doesn’t

    …occur with the Oilers since Sather left Dodge.

  89. Norman Greenbaum says:

    Peeps, stop falling in love with prospects.

    They’ll only break your heart, whether through trade or failing to meet unrealistic expectations.

  90. hunter1909 says:

    Oh I get it. There’s not enough regret left over from losing Petry for next to nothing.

    Losing Nurse will provide angst for many years to come.

  91. Norman Greenbaum says:

    hunter1909: …occur with the Oilers since Sather left Dodge.

    HAH!

    *Best Edna Krabappel*

    EDIT: Amazing what difference playing behind the 1980’s Oilers as opposed to the 2000’s Oilers makes.

  92. Ryan says:

    Primetime: I remember some people with a similar view point at the 2012 draft.We didn’t need another skill winger but allegedly no one wanted to give us an asset to trade down (including Columbus, probably due to recent Zherdev debacle).So the theory would be draft Yak and when he lights it up, you can trade him later for a Kings ransom to fill all our other holes…as we now know, there are lots of bends in the road that we can’t predict.

    The NHL is not yet a “draft for need” league like the NFL, but with the increasing use of rookie ELC contracts under the cap, it won’t be far.Trading the picks for someone they felt would be able to step in right away is not a bad theory…who they traded for and the extra pick/price can be debated though.

    The widely espoused view at the time of the Yakupov draft In the Oiligosphere was, “draft the best player available, period.” The concept gained legs with several examples of roster changes causing miscalculations in what players you actually do need. It was also propped up with the straw man argument that the only alternative was to draft for need. You either take the bpa or you draft for need. Drafting for need is foolish… End of argument…

    The Oilers for the most part seemed to follow that bpa mantra which is why we started our rebuild drafting wingers, three out of the first four years of the rebuild (depending on when you consider it starts) and also now have a never ending supply of left shot defensemen…

    The other prevailing sentiment in the Oiligosphere at the time was to never draft defensemen early because there’s too much risk.

    What we’ve learned is that it’s hard to start a rebuild without centres and defensemen, borderline on being completely foolish. We’ve also seen that wingers don’t have the market value of equivalent defensemen or centres, so the naive idea that you can fill roster holes with simply trading wingers is problematic unless you’re drafting Patrick Kane or Taylor Hall as your wingers.

  93. Cahoon says:

    Norman Greenbaum:
    Peeps, stop falling in love with prospects.

    They’ll only break your heart, whether through trade or failing to meet unrealistic expectations.

    I totally agree with this, and I have been guilty of this too. I think the Nurse fanboys are delusional if they think he will be Chris Pronger, he never will be.

  94. TsuDhoNimh says:

    Lowetide: I mean that taking the pick and putting him in the linuep—along with (I assume) McDavid and Draisaitl means another season of kids in the lineup. If you take Laine, you are trading Eberle, which is fine, but you are once again developing players for other teams, with Eberle joining Petry, Marincin, and on and on.

    The Oilers have to turn north. The value of the pick to this team is less than Jordan Staal (for instance) to Pittsburgh in 2006.

    I would agree with you except for the expansion draft. This may end up being one of the more important picks in recent history. If you could trade one of Eberle/Hall for a young promising D, like say Parayko, you would have someone to fill the void of Eberle/Hall plus have a potential #1 or #2 D and neither would have to be protected in the expansion draft. Wouldn’t that be good asset management? I know it’s more young kids and all, just spitballing.

    *edit* Obviously there would be more involved in a trade than a straight up 1 for 1 deal

  95. square_wheels says:

    Cahoon,

    I think there is only a few GM’s I would not play hardball with…..Snow is one of them (Sather and Lombardi the others).

  96. Johnny Larue says:

    There is no way that I would trade Nurse no matter what the stats. He is going to be a beast once he gets his man strength. He already intimidates now and he is just a young man. He comes from a family of athletes and knows what it takes to succeed. He will just keep getting better because he will work his ass of to get better and do whatever the team ask of him. The problem with fancy stats is that they can’t measure character ,desire, work ethic , etc. He is a player who has improved every year and I think he will be an anchor on our blue and will become the Oilers Chara.

  97. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Nurse was never going to be a scoring Dman in the NHL based on NHLE and year over year development throughout junior. If he becomes a #3 shutdown D man on a playoff team everyone should be happy. That being said he shouldn’t have to play that role as a rookie without a new partner every week, none of them being veterans.

    Quick question, when you guys state a point/60 number is it the players actual minutes or a per game type number? Nurses warrior chart has him as second pairing in goals/60, how is that possible when he plays 20 min a night and only has 2 goals.

  98. G Money says:

    *** SIR SPAMALOT ***

    A lot lighter than my usual fare: a little factoid about goalposts and the teams who hit them

    http://www.beerleagueheroes.com/the-scourge-of-the-goalposts/

  99. Alpine says:

    Nurse might be Pronger at a less than 5% chance, but i’m starting to think he’s probably Bogosian. A guy who looked he might be elite but topped out at solid. Nothing wrong with that. Just hope the ‘solid’ comes for Nurse before his ELC is up.

  100. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: In fairness to me, it was always clear to the group.

    In fairness to me, I read for content more than most.

    🙂

  101. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil:
    Woodguy,

    I may have missed it, but based on your QC metric, where does Nurse fall? Playing 1, 2 or 3?

    I have him at 2.5, but he doesn’t shine in any category.

  102. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: In fairness to me, I read for content more than most.

    :)

    Well, let’s agree that big brains need a large parking lot to turn around in, and sometimes miss the obvious. 🙂

  103. Lowetide says:

    Per Ryan Rishaug

    Hall Draisaitl Pakarinen
    Maroon McDavid Eberle
    Korpikoski RNH Yakupov
    Hendricks Letestu Kassian

    Sekera Fayne
    Oesterle Reinhart
    Nurse Clendening

    Brossoit

  104. Johnny skid says:

    hags9k: It’s like hording away precious gems and then walking around with threadbare pants with holes in the pockets.

    this reminds me of the old chinese proverb…. man with hole in pocket feel cocky all day.

  105. sliderule says:

    Don’t you think the oilers have to use the pick and use it for a defenceman.

    Over the past drafts the feeling was take BPA and then adjust your roster by trading.

    We are finding that trading for just a top four D like Hamonic is not easy as teams put extreme value on them.

    If we are worried about a bust Blue Bullet has a study on his site were he shows D are usually closely slotted to were they should be drafted.

    There are three highly rated D in Chychrun Sergachev and Juolevi .

    Probably all three will be there when the oilers pick and all have offence.

    Pick the best one.

  106. stevezie says:

    Nurse has little in common with Pronger. The WJs gave us a window into his best case scenario as an elite, athletic shut-down defender. The best comparison i can think of is Travis Hamonic.

    His personality is what sets him apart, not his game. Fans love it and the team needs it, but i could not turn down Nurse for Hamonic. That also frees us up to potentially draft a Finn AND keep Eberle.

    It’s a lot.

  107. frjohnk says:

    I think Nurses offensive ceiling is underrated

    Out of all D men who have played more than 250 minutes 5 on 5.

    -Nurse is tied for 13th in creating 14 individual high scoring chances.

    Name iHSC
    Dustin.Byfuglien 29
    Erik.Karlsson 22
    Roman.Josi 19
    Jacob.Trouba 19
    Torey.Krug 18
    John.Klingberg 18
    Brent.Burns 17
    Victor.Hedman 17
    Mattias.Ekholm 16
    Alex.Pietrangelo 15
    Tyler.Myers 15
    Darnell.Nurse 14
    Erik.Johnson 14
    Colton.Parayko 14
    Noah.Hanifin 14
    Morgan.Rielly 13
    Kevin.Shattenkirk 13
    Trevor.Daley 13
    Dougie.Hamilton 13
    Hampus.Lindholm 13

    -Nurse is 13th in creating 67 scoring chances
    Name iSC
    Brent.Burns 104
    Torey.Krug 102
    Erik.Karlsson 96
    Morgan.Rielly 90
    Roman.Josi 88
    Victor.Hedman 87
    Mark.Giordano 79
    Alex.Pietrangelo 78
    Dustin.Byfuglien 77
    Jake.Muzzin 76
    Tyler.Myers 72
    Kevin.Shattenkirk 68
    Darnell.Nurse 67
    Jake.Gardiner 65
    Erik.Johnson 64
    Rasmus.Ristolainen 64
    John.Klingberg 63
    Anton.Stralman 62
    Kris.Letang 62
    Trevor.Daley 61

    And he is not scared to shoot the puck. He is 27th in individual shots on net.

    Name iSF
    Brent.Burns 205
    Erik.Karlsson 147
    Dustin.Byfuglien 135
    Jake.Muzzin 134
    Torey.Krug 127
    Travis.Hamonic 119
    Mark.Giordano 119
    Alex.Pietrangelo 118
    Kris.Letang 116
    Victor.Hedman 115
    Colton.Parayko 114
    Rasmus.Ristolainen 112
    Roman.Josi 110
    Ryan.Suter 110
    Radko.Gudas 108
    Erik.Johnson 107
    Johnny.Boychuk 107
    Dougie.Hamilton 106
    Michael.Stone 105
    Oliver.Ekman-Larsson 104
    Seth.Jones 104
    Drew.Doughty 104
    Matt.Niskanen 104
    John.Klingberg 103
    Morgan.Rielly 103
    Aaron.Ekblad 102
    Darnell.Nurse 101
    Kevin.Shattenkirk 101

    -He needs to work on his shot
    -Better gap control when the other team is rushing the puck towards the Oilers net
    -Less running around in the D zone

    The game will slow down for him and when it does Darnell Nurse is the guy you do not bet against.

    I believe he will make a jump offensively next year like he did in his 2nd year in jr from his 1st year.

    I wouldn’t trade Darnell Nurse.

  108. Caramel Batman says:

    Johnny Larue:
    There is no way that I would trade Nurse no matter what the stats. He is going to be a beast once he gets his man strength. He already intimidates now and he is just a young man. He comes from a family of athletes and knows what it takes to succeed. He will just keep getting better because he will work his ass of to get better and do whatever the team ask of him. The problem with fancy stats is that they can’t measure character ,desire, work ethic , etc. He is a player who has improved every year and I think he will be an anchor on our blue and will become the Oilers Chara.

    Everything about this post reflects wishful and shoddy thinking.

    The conversation around Nurse begins with basic information.

    1) For all his toughness, his speed, and his fighting Nurse is one of the worst defensemen who played regular minutes this year. Deny this as you like but it is true. This isn’t fancy stat dogma, it is merely the counting of what happens on the ice. By shots, by scoring chances, by points, by everything the Oilers get destroyed when he is on the ice. In the present tense, Nurse is a below replacement hockey player.

    2) There is nothing in his pedigree, his junior record, his draft position, nothing, that would indicate he is a future star. If you are projecting improvement you need to do so within some reasonable expectation. His track record is good, not great.

    3) He is a great skater and very, very tough. And yet these things don’t matter very much, given #1 and #2. I would say he’s pretty close to definite to be a reasonable NHL player, a good chance to being a good player, but has a vanishingly small chance of being a great player. The record is what the record is. Stop talking about his potential. It isn’t the sky.

    4) Given all this, Hamonic is his absolute upside. There is no other reasonable conclusion. Pending expansion rules, which may or may not happen, trading him for Hamonic is a slam dunk.

  109. Gordies Elbow says:

    stevezie,

    The problem with trading Nurse for Hamonic is that Hamonic will need to be protected in the expansion draft, while Nurse likely will not, as his contract slid last season and he’s on the first year of his ELC.

    Hamonic, Sekera, and Klefbom protected means losing both Nurse (trade) and Davidson (picked by LV.) Not a good use of assets.

  110. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    Per Ryan Rishaug

    Hall Draisaitl Pakarinen
    Maroon McDavid Eberle
    Korpikoski RNH Yakupov
    Hendricks Letestu Kassian

    Sekera Fayne
    Oesterle Reinhart
    Nurse Clendening

    Brossoit

    This three NHL centers thing is going to take some getting used to…

    …I hope.

    I scan the lineup and think “man, Yakupov on the third line AGAIN…oh, wait, so is Nugent-Hopkins. Damn, that’s not bad!”.

  111. Lowetide says:

    Great stuff from McLellan on Brossoit, Pakarinen (‘I like having a worker!’)

    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=-6&id=945596&cmpid=rss-whatsnew

  112. RexLibris says:

    sliderule: Don’t you think the oilers have to use the pick and use it for a defenceman.

    I think that is the outcome of the “trade-down” option.

    Move from 2nd, let’s say, to 4th or 5th and take one of Juolevi or Chychrun if it allows you to pick up David Savard for example.

    It is only one of myriad possible options should Chiarelli find some trade partners.

  113. stevezie says:

    Gordies Elbow,

    The expansion draft is definitely a tricky element- and i expect the team knows more about its likelihood than we do- but if this happens you expose Sekera.

    1. We’re currently deep at LhD
    2. You will already have gotten the two best years of his contract
    3. If, as expected, there is only one expansion team they will have a killer defence and may be more tempted by a young forward than an expensive Sekera.

  114. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ryan: The widely espoused view at the time of the Yakupov draft In the Oiligosphere was, “draft the best player available, period.”The concept gained legs with several examples of roster changes causing miscalculations in what players you actually do need.It was also propped up with the straw man argument that the only alternative was to draft for need. You either take the bpa or you draft for need.Drafting for need is foolish…End of argument…

    The Oilers for the most part seemed to follow that bpa mantra which is why we started our rebuild drafting wingers, three out of the first four years of the rebuild (depending on when you consider it starts) and also now have a never ending supply of left shot defensemen…

    The other prevailing sentiment in the Oiligosphere at the time was to never draft defensemen early because there’s too much risk.

    What we’ve learned is that it’s hard to start a rebuild without centres and defensemen, borderline on being completely foolish.We’ve also seen that wingers don’t have the market value of equivalent defensemen or centres, so the naive idea that you can fill roster holes with simply trading wingers is problematic unless you’re drafting Patrick Kane or Taylor Hall as your wingers.

    Whenever we put past first round picks through this kind of counterfactual game, we should at least game out the alternative all the way.

    From 2010 (or, start wherever you prefer) through 2015, what’s the actual, at the time, move you can honestly advise an Oilers’ GM to make for each first round pick?

  115. godot10 says:

    Woodguy: T

    My biggest concern for Nurse is that he’s scores very, very low.

    1) When Nurse played with the top six, he was playing with Sekera against the toughs.
    2) Most of his playing time is with the offensive black hole bottom six, pairing with another AHL level young D.

    Exactly where was the opportunity for offense?

    Nurse is also different from most other young D in that he is hyper-assertive. He learns by pushing the boundaries, and dialing back, rather than incrementally dialing up. And in the context of his usage that “explains” why your statistics look bad for him relatively. Nurse is going to do stuff. Most young D are hesitant to do stuff.

    So most of your statistical comparison is apples and oranges. The only young D who was as remotely as hyper-assertive as Nurse is Doughty, but Doughty was good out of the box. Nurse is a much more raw prospect who has extreme levels of assertiveness. His statistical profile is going to look different than most any other young D.

  116. Johnny Gonzo says:

    böök¡je,

    Blitzkreig Bop—Dr.Drai of course

  117. Johnny Larue says:

    Caramel Batman,

    You may think that it is wishful and shoddy thinking but I have a feeling that the PC and the rest of the management agree more with my thinking than yours. But we shall see.

  118. speeds says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    not to mention that any counterfactual arguably includes signing Petry long term (Stralman as well if possible), trading Schultz a couple years ago when his value was higher, keeping MM, not trading for Reinhart – none of which are hindsight based and all of which go an awful long way towards addressing the D.

  119. Lowetide says:

    From Bruce Garrioch:

    The Jets have a decision to make on defenceman Jacob Trouba. The 22-year-old is coming out of an entry-level deal and the talk amongst league executives is the two sides are nowhere close in contract talks. You have to think Trouba falls somewhere in the $4-to-$5 million range but the belief is his camp’s demands are higher than that. At some point or another, the Islanders will have to deal with defenceman Travis Hamonic’s trade request to be closer to home. Some believe there’s a fit with the Jets.

    http://www.ottawasun.com/2016/03/20/nhl-discussing-rules-for-expansion-draft?token=a0df859e559d4370414121e3ed74d2c5

  120. Caramel Batman says:

    Johnny Larue:
    Caramel Batman,

    You may think that it is wishful and shoddy thinking but I have a feeling that the PC and the rest of the management agree more with my thinking than yours. But we shall see.

    I am afraid you are right. But that’s not evidence in your favour.

    Management by hope is how the Oilers got into this mess in the first place.

  121. kinger_OIL says:

    hunter1909,

    – Hunt says: “Nurse has the potential to become a version of Chris Pronger”

    – Depending on what derivative of Pronger I agree. Pronger was an elite point getter in Junoir, and he was way tougher than Nurse in Junoir. Pronger came into the NHL and was almost from the get go an elite point getter, elite vision, passer, great shot and a much tougher player than Nurse is now.

    – I see similarities in their skating, and their size. To the extent past performance is predictive of future, Nurse hasn’t put up the points. He dosn’t show Prongers elite vision, isn’t nearly the passer, he takes a long time to wind up his shot, and isn’t as smartly physical as Proger.

    – Trade him to a team that sees him as the next Proger, and values him as such, and you do great on that trade in terms of what comes back. Or keep him and play him properly, so that in 3 years he is “a version of Pronger”: but he’s no “Chris Pronger” in training.

  122. nelson88 says:

    Winnable game tonight if LB isn’t fighting the puck but that certainly hasn’t been the case the past two outings.

    Like LB’s long term potential and the fact that the club is giving him a big league look but in hindsight i wonder if Chia would like a do over on that transaction. LB has not been good with the Oil and he would have gone a long way to securing Bakersfield’s playoff spot but with no more recalls I don’t see how they can get someone else up to carry Talbot’s luggage?

  123. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Whenever we put past first round picks through this kind of counterfactual game, we should at least game out the alternative all the way.

    From 2010 (or, start wherever you prefer) through 2015, what’s the actual, at the time, move you can honestly advise an Oilers’ GM to make for each first round pick?

    1. Draft Hall
    2. Draft Nuge
    3. Draft Nail
    4. Draft Nichushkin
    5. Draft Sam Bennett
    6. Draft McDavid

  124. godot10 says:

    Chachi: Nurse should have played in the AHL this year, but even there he would have scored very very low if he played the very very low minutes on the PP that he’s played in the NHL.

    Nurse isn’t going to learn anything in the AHL. He is different than most young D in that he is hyper-assertive. He will only find his boundaries properly in the NHL on a 3rd pairing paired with a well-rounded competent veteran.

    To learn, a player has to be put in an environment that is suited to the player’s way of learning. Nurse won’t learn better decision-making in the AHL, because he can “out-run” his mistakes at that level.

  125. sliderule says:

    RexLibris,

    I agree with doing that .

    So long as they stay in a range that they still get a good one

  126. Gordies Elbow says:

    stevezie,

    If Sekera’s available to be dropped.

    From Freidman’s 30 thoughts on March 16th:

    We’re still waiting for clarity on no-move clauses. The official message was: we haven’t decided yet. But the managers think they know what’s coming.

    “What do you think about the expansion draft?” I asked one last week.

    “I think,” he said, “We’re going to find out how much the NHL hates no-move clauses. They are going to $#%& us.”

    Until I’m told otherwise, I’d expect that Sekera will need to be protected.

  127. stush18 says:

    Lowetide: 1. Draft Hall
    2. Draft Nuge
    3. Draft Nail
    4. Draft Nichushkin
    5. Draft Sam Bennett
    6. Draft McDavid

    Draft hall
    Draft nuge
    Trade pick (not just hindsight, this was the year to trade for a dman after collecting forwards.)
    Draft ristolainen
    Draft drai
    Draft mcdavid

  128. nelson88 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Whenever we put past first round picks through this kind of counterfactual game, we should at least game out the alternative all the way.
    From 2010 (or, start wherever you prefer) through 2015, what’s the actual, at the time, move you can honestly advise an Oilers’ GM to make for each first round pick?

    2010: Hall or Seguin, i literally would have used a coin flip on the draft floor. Liked Hall slightly better but prefer C
    2011: Nuge
    2012: Murray
    2013: Nurse
    2014: Drai
    2015: McDavid

  129. Norman Greenbaum says:

    King of Spin!

    This just in, Talbot benched after shut-out win over the Canucks, fueling rumours of unhappiness at Edmonton, sources say.

    Or,

    After a great performance in the shut-out win over Vancouver, Talbot earns a rest late in the season, allowing Brossoit to shine and the Oiler’s management to get another look at him with an NHL start.

    Or probably the TMac

    Talbot out. Brossoit in. ‘Cos I said so.

  130. godot10 says:

    Primetime:

    The NHL is not yet a “draft for need” league like the NFL, but with the increasing use of rookie ELC contracts under the cap, it won’t be far.Trading the picks for someone they felt would be able to step in right away is not a bad theory…who they traded for and the extra pick/price can be debated though.

    The good teams in the NFL don’t “draft for need”.

  131. McSorley33 says:

    Caramel Batman,

    Wishful thinking ……is thinking Dallas Eakins is a good coach.

    1) Yes, Darnell drowned as a 20 year old thrown into the NHL deep end?
    ( yes or no, good development idea ?)

    2) Team Canada coaches and OHL coaches disagree with you

    3) Great skater, large man, very tough sounds like he maybe a future shut down Dman.
    ( Sedins were impressed)

    I though defencemen took longer to develop than forwards……

    Again, nobody was predicting, at any level, high offence from Nurse. Future shut down defenceman.
    Just like the task he was given at world juniors.

  132. flyfish1168 says:

    stush18: Draft hall
    Draft nuge
    Trade pick (not just hindsight, this was the year to trade for a dman after collecting forwards.)
    Draft ristolainen
    Draft drai
    Draft mcdavid

    We might not have been a lottery team last year if we had traded the Nail 1st overall pick for D help

  133. Norman Greenbaum says:

    godot10: Nurse isn’t going to learn anything in the AHL.

    It may be he doesn’t learn any new tricks there, but he can sure perfect the ones he knows that won’t result in the best players in the world putting it in the back of his net if he effs it up. That and the occasional cup of coffee or two for next year and I’ll be happy. It’ll also mean Chia went and got someone that pushed him down the depth chart, which is good for him and the team.

  134. Bruce McCurdy says:

    RexLibris:
    Hey LT,

    I believe this to be true as well. Unless McDavid does something beyond belief (relative to him) in front of every set of eyes in the Eastern media, it’ll be a toss-up between Panarin and Gostisbehere.

    Eastern media or Southern media?

  135. meanashell11 says:

    Lowetide: Math is telling us something about Darnell Nurse this year.

    Well your own comments and WG’s while not saying “bust”, sure point that you are thinking that way.

    Hunter makes the same comment as mine but mine is not worth discussing because I frame it. OK.

  136. stush18 says:

    In the argument for trading eberle, and replacing him with laine, we are forgetting a pretty high end forward UFA crop this year.

    Stamkos, Ladd, lucic, erikson, okposo, helm all off the top of my head.

    I would sign okposo and helm.

    They easily replace eberles production, who is then dealt for hamonic

    Laine or pullijarvi left in Europe.

    Hall-nuge-drai
    Poo-mcdavid-okposo
    Maroon-helm-kass
    Hendricks-letestu-pak

    Klef-hamonic
    Sekera-vatanen
    Reinhart-Davidson

  137. Bruce McCurdy says:

    gnikkles:

    Its also why i wish they would have drafted Barzal and kept the 2nd rounder in the Reinhart trade. I’d rather they add to the talent pool around McDavids age range.

    A 21-year-old d-man is right in the sweet spot for a cluster built around an 18-year-old forward. The complaint around here used to be that the d-men were younger than the forwards.

  138. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: A 21-year-old d-man is right in the sweet spot for a cluster built around an 18-year-old forward. The complaint around here used to be that the d-men were younger than the forwards.

    Agreed, no quarrel with that trade from a strategic pov. Imo, it showed that PC recognized the importance of stockpiling Ds who were older than Connor McDavid for the long road ahead.

  139. kinger_OIL says:

    Lowetide,

    – Trouba is from Michigan, Harmonic from Manitoba: a deal with NYI fits well for both parties.

    – Harmonic is cheaper and more experienced for the ‘Peg: done deal, book it!

  140. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    From Bruce Garrioch:

    The Jets have a decision to make on defenceman Jacob Trouba. The 22-year-old is coming out of an entry-level deal and the talk amongst league executives is the two sides are nowhere close in contract talks. You have to think Trouba falls somewhere in the $4-to-$5 million range but the belief is his camp’s demands are higher than that. At some point or another, the Islanders will have to deal with defenceman Travis Hamonic’s trade request to be closer to home. Some believe there’s a fit with the Jets.

    http://www.ottawasun.com/2016/03/20/nhl-discussing-rules-for-expansion-draft?token=a0df859e559d4370414121e3ed74d2c5

    Once we factor in that the leaked ask of a player (c. Dougie Hamilton, or even Bozak) is certainly not where the signed cost will end up…

    does anyone have a sense that the Isles will prefer Trouba at that signed cost over whatever else they might be offered?

    Or, if the Jets aren’t willing to pay, what leads anyone to think the Isles will be willing to pay, especially considering how Snow deals with these kinds of things?

  141. geowal says:

    I had thought, until reading up here, that trading the first rounder for D-help, if such a trade exists, was among oiler fans a universally approved approach for Chiarelli this summer. Surprised to see otherwise.

  142. fifthcartel says:

    Bruce McCurdy: A 21-year-old d-man is right in the sweet spot for a cluster built around an 18-year-old forward. The complaint around here used to be that the d-men were younger than the forwards.

    It was a good idea in theory that almost everybody could get behind: trade Pittsburgh’s 1st for a emerging young defensemant that can fit in with the Hall group as well as the McDavid cluster.

    Unfortunately I was hoping for a Ryan Ellis, Dougie Hamilton, Jared Spurgeon/Matt Dumba-type defensemen. Griffin Reinhart doesn’t really fit that same idea of ’emerging young defensemen’ that we had hoped for.

    Reinhart seems to be more submerging than emerging.

  143. Lowetide says:

    meanashell11: Well your own comments and WG’s while not saying “bust”, sure point that you are thinking that way.

    Hunter makes the same comment as mine but mine is not worth discussing because I frame it. OK.

    I can’t speak for Woodguy, but for me Nurse has a very good chance to be a productive NHL player. I have said many times that the expectation for his offense should not be 40 points, but that he could be an effective defender. In fact, I predicted he would score 10 points this season so the offense I expected wasn’t that high.

    https://lowetide.ca/2015/08/17/re-15-16-darnell-nurse-please-please-please/

    Part of the issue (imo) is that the Oilers coaching and management loved Nurse after the callup, so much so they pushed him too high up the depth chart. That isn’t on him, that is on management. I thought it would happen just this way, and the only surprise (for me) is that Nurse has not progressed in the second half of the year (after being backed off).

    That is a concern, although one they probably fix by giving him a quality partner next season.

    As for me dismissing your original post while also commenting to Hunter, you are right. That was inconsistent on my part and I apologize.

  144. speeds says:

    Bruce McCurdy: A 21-year-old d-man is right in the sweet spot for a cluster built around an 18-year-old forward. The complaint around here used to be that the d-men were younger than the forwards.

    Doesn’t mean that any 21 year old D, at any price, was the answer.

  145. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: Agreed, no quarrel with that trade from a strategic pov. Imo, it showed that PC recognized the importance of stockpiling Ds who were older than Connor McDavid for the long road ahead.

    The bigger issues being his handedness & the bonus boondoggle. But the theory of trading for a ripening defenceman was fine in my books.

  146. nelson88 says:

    stush18,

    How much do you anticpate Okposo and Helm getting as free agent signings and Vatannen when you sign him as an RFA? Might be difficult to fit that roster under the cap in two years when you need to resign Drai and McDavid.

  147. Bruce McCurdy says:

    speeds: Doesn’t mean that any 21 year old D, at any price, was the answer.

    i don’t think that is what I said.

  148. frjohnk says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: does anyone have a sense that the Isles will prefer Trouba at that signed cost over whatever else they might be offered?

    If Trouba is available in a trade for Hamonic, that’s the deal Snow takes.

  149. Woodguy says:

    Chachi: Gotcha. I will say that he sure looks better than Smid ever did as a rookie and Ladi had a full season in the AHL, I believe, before he played for the Oilers. So you might say it is a bit misleading to point out that Smid is his closest comp. That is just my feeling on this, I get the math is popping up red flags like crazy.

    Ladi started in the NHL at 20 too.

    I wanted to do him as a comp but the data on CFrel and CArel stops one year before Ladi’s rookie year.

  150. Gordies Elbow says:

    fifthcartel

    Reinhart seems to be more submerging than emerging.

    Only 3rd star in his last game. What a bust 😉

  151. Woodguy says:

    godot10: 1) When Nurse played with the top six, he was playing with Sekera against the toughs.
    2) Most of his playing time is with the offensive black hole bottom six, pairing with another AHL level young D.

    Exactly where was the opportunity for offense?

    Nurse is also different from most other young D in that he is hyper-assertive.He learns by pushing the boundaries, and dialing back, rather than incrementally dialing up.And in the context of his usage that “explains” why your statistics look bad for him relatively.Nurse is going to do stuff.Most young D are hesitant to do stuff.

    So most of your statistical comparison is apples and oranges.The only young D who was as remotely as hyper-assertive as Nurse is Doughty, but Doughty was good out of the box.Nurse is a much more raw prospect who has extreme levels of assertiveness.His statistical profile is going to look different than most any other young D.

    I need to be more clear.

    When I said “he scores really low” it wasn’t points, it was his score on my table of metrics.

    Sorry about that.

    So most of your statistical comparison is apples and oranges.

    No, its apples to apples.

    I’ll respond more when I have time.

    Right now I have about 3 minutes every 90 to look at the thread.

  152. Caramel Batman says:

    McSorley33,

    The whole point of these conversations is that you can’t take for granted that hockey people know what they are doing or a good judge of ability

    The conversation begins there. An argument from authority is not an argument at all.

  153. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: The bigger issues being his handedness & the bonus boondoggle. But the theory of trading for a ripening defenceman was fine in my books.

    Yes. We can see it already, the Oilers could end up dealing Nurse instead of GR, or if Klefbom remains injury prone maybe both play. And even though Davidson was not anticipated, for me having too many is a nice luxury. Sucks for Musil though. Did you see Zerr’s item over at ON. Gerry Fleming loves him. Suspect Musil gets dealt over the summer if there is a market (may not be one).

  154. Ryan says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Whenever we put past first round picks through this kind of counterfactual game, we should at least game out the alternative all the way.

    From 2010 (or, start wherever you prefer) through 2015, what’s the actual, at the time, move you can honestly advise an Oilers’ GM to make for each first round pick?

    It’s hard to go back to revisit the drafts from 2010 through the lense of 20 20 hindsight and remain unbiased.

    The 2009 draft was terrible in that Hesketh, Abney, and Bigos were contemporaneously regarded as blown picks the moment that they were selected by most of us.

    PRV was known to be a soft, speedy winger with questionable offense. He was ranked high and was falling on draft day. Obviously, if we wanted to build from the blue line out then Ellis, De Haan, Leddy, and Kulikov would all have been available options taken during that part of the draft.

    You could also fairly imo question the Lander selection. He was picked for his leadership qualities and defensive acumen–40 would be too high to pick a potential 3c/4c Imo.

    For the 2010 draft, many were discussing a tie going to the center… Seguin. This blog was pro seguin.

    For the 2011 draft, you’d still go Nuge and Klefbomb. Musil was selected too high for his ceiling… again, this is not revisionist history.

    For the 2012 draft, it would be real easy for me to just say, you just take Hampus Linholm or something… :). Maybe at the time, your scouts are convinced that Yakupov is the goods and you still take him… maybe you trade down or trade the pick, it’s too hard to be fair for this draft in hindsight.

    From 2013 onward, we seem to see a shift to d and c.

    Overall, you have to weigh a lot of factors obviously, but top four d and top two centres are gold Jerry gold.

  155. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Interesting splits for Nurse at the superficial (boxcar) level:

    First 21 games: 2-5-7, +1
    ——
    (Klefbom injured)
    —–
    Next 40 games: 0-1-1, -14

    Not sure how Woodguy’s fancies might line up but I find that a rather striking dividing line. By memory & by logic Nurse’s QC surged at that point that Oscar went down.

  156. nelson88 says:

    frjohnk: If Trouba is available in a trade for Hamonic, that’s the deal Snow takes.

    I’m not so sure. Snow stated that he wanted a compareable D in return but it’s reasonable to speculate that might have just been a point in time. If the Isles go out early in the playoffs primarily as a result of not being able to score and/or Pulock or another young D continue to impress maybe the equation changes.

    Snow has to re-sign the face of the franchise in a couple of years and rightly or wrongly GM’s have long memories about “clutch” chemistry.

  157. speeds says:

    Bruce McCurdy: i don’t think that is what I said.

    What were you saying? I get the thought process behind that sort of moving of the timeline, my point is that is way too narrow a way to look at the trade.

  158. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Interesting splits for Nurse at the superficial (boxcar) level:

    First 21 games: 2-5-7, +1
    ——
    (Klefbom injured)
    —–
    Next 40 games: 0-1-1, -14

    Not sure how Woodguy’s fancies might line up but I find that a rather striking dividing line. By memory & by logic Nurse’s QC surged at that point that Oscar went down.

    Yes. They moved him up with Sekera.

    He is 43.6 with Sekera, 46.9 without. 47 percent Corsi isn’t fabulous, but when factoring in other partners and rookie status it does frame it a different way.

  159. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: Yes. We can see it already, the Oilers could end up dealing Nurse instead of GR, or if Klefbom remains injury prone maybe both play. And even though Davidson was not anticipated, for me having too many is a nice luxury. Sucks for Musil though. Did you see Zerr’s item over at ON. Gerry Fleming loves him. Suspect Musil gets dealt over the summer if there is a market (may not be one).

    Why deal Musil? Who is ideal injury depth. And the ideal veteran AHL mentor to break in AHL rookie D.

    Re-sign him. There is not much risk of losing him on waivers. There might be a place for him after the expansion draft.

    One has a fully and properly ripened AHL D ready for his NHL opportunity. It would be stupid to get rid of him now.

  160. Lowetide says:

    godot10: Why deal Musil?Who is ideal injury depth.And the ideal veteran AHL mentor to break in AHL rookie D.

    Re-sign him.There is not much risk of losing him on waivers.There might be a place for him after the expansion draft.

    One has a fully and properly ripened AHL D ready for his NHL opportunity.It would be stupid to get rid of him now.

    Agree if there is no waiver worry, that is the play. I would consider dealing him for a RH D though. Although I am not as married to the L-R ideal as others, Edmonton has way too many of one type imo.

  161. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide:
    5. Draft Sam Bennett

    Why do you hate Draisaitl LT?

  162. Klima's_Bucket says:

    In 2013 I thought the difference between Nurse and Ristolainen was extremely small.
    The fact that Ristolainen is right shot pushed him ahead of Nurse.
    There is a premium on right shot D.
    Therefore I would have selected Ristolainen and still would prefer him over Nurse.
    I love Nurse.
    But preferred, and still would prefer Ristolainen.

  163. Alpine says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Interesting splits for Nurse at the superficial (boxcar) level:

    First 21 games: 2-5-7, +1
    ——
    (Klefbom injured)
    —–
    Next 40 games: 0-1-1, -14

    Not sure how Woodguy’s fancies might line up but I find that a rather striking dividing line. By memory & by logic Nurse’s QC surged at that point that Oscar went down.

    I remember bring it up previous threads, his usage is very uncommon for a rookie D to have. Recent D in Calder contention, like the Ekblads and Klingbergs and Gostisbeheres, are generally sheltered well. Doughty was very sheltered his first two seasons.

    So it’s tough to judge what Nurse truly is at the NHL. I only know he can’t handle toughs yet and I doubt many standout young D can, because they don’t have to.

    I do think the reason for hysteria over Nurse is handedness as he has 3 LHD that look like they’re clearly ahead of him now and in the future, with nothing on the right side. I think don’t think he should be untouchable if a very good RH defenseman is available, but it’s tough to move a guy like Nurse without truly knowing what he is.

    It would be nice if the Oilers had a proper D in place that they could relax and let Nurse develop on the third pairing. Which they still can do, but they have to fix that right side first and hopefully without breaking up one of the better 3 deep left sides in the league in 77, 2, and 88.

  164. TemujinBC says:

    If McDavid finishes the year with anywhere near 50 points, he *must* win the Calder.

    Anything else would be a horrific insult to the whole idea of the trophy and the integrity of the selection proce-

    Oh. Wait. It’s the NHL.

    *Weeps uncontrollably*

    Life’s not fair at all, is it?

  165. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention: Why do you hate Draisaitl LT?

    Love Draisaitl. I think Bennett was the best player in that draft. said so at the time.

  166. Water Fire says:

    Woodguy: True, but playing 2nd toughs with McDavid is a pretty sweet spot and Eberle isn’t a vet who “calms the waters” , he’s pretty weak without the puck.

    I was just going to say you can’t replace Nuge with a rookie but Eberle is a wash. IMO you might even improve based on the rookie.

  167. Chachi says:

    Woodguy: Ladi started in the NHL at 20 too.

    I wanted to do him as a comp but the data on CFrel and CArel stops one year before Ladi’s rookie year.

    That is too bad. By eye they are very different players who were both rushed to the NHL.

  168. Bruce McCurdy says:

    speeds: What were you saying?I get the thought process behind that sort of moving of the timeline, my point is that is way too narrow a way to look at the trade.

    I’m saying I get the logic behind the trade. The jury is out as to whether they got the right guy.

    I know it’s not the same people making both points, but in this thread I have read both how Oilers should turn this year’s draft pick into an older player, & how Oilers should have hung on to last year’s pick rather than turn it into an older player.

  169. Alpine says:

    Water Fire,

    I think Laine could improve on Eberle by his second season. Seen some scouts say he’s nearly on Matthews level and I believe it. Matthews is considered better than Eichel and look how good a season Eichel has had.

  170. JDï™ says:

    TemujinBC: Oh. Wait. It’s the Professional Hockey Writers Association.

    Weep on, friend. Kypreos, Hrudey, Shannon, MacLean (Doug)…

  171. Chachi says:

    godot10: Nurse isn’t going to learn anything in the AHL.He is different than most young D in that he is hyper-assertive.He will only find his boundaries properly in the NHL on a 3rd pairing paired with a well-rounded competent veteran.

    To learn, a player has to be put in an environment that is suited to the player’s way of learning.Nurse won’t learn better decision-making in the AHL, because he can “out-run” his mistakes at that level.

    Nurse should have spent the year in the AHL playing 27 minutes a night, quarterbacking the power play learning to manage his energy while playing huge minutes in key situations. He is not going to learn that treading water in the NHL.

  172. Norman Greenbaum says:

    godot10: Why deal Musil?Who is ideal injury depth.And the ideal veteran AHL mentor to break in AHL rookie D.

    Re-sign him.There is not much risk of losing him on waivers.There might be a place for him after the expansion draft.

    One has a fully and properly ripened AHL D ready for his NHL opportunity.It would be stupid to get rid of him now.

    So who can we trade, exactly?

    We can’t even trade a guy so far down the depth chart?

    The point is, he may never GET his NHL opportunity here.

  173. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: Love Draisaitl. I think Bennett was the best player in that draft. said so at the time.

    Now that you’ve seen Draisaitl emerge, do you still think Sam Bennett is better?

  174. hunter1909 says:

    kinger_OIL:
    hunter1909,

    – Hunt says: “Nurse has the potential to become a version of Chris Pronger”

    – Depending on what derivative of Pronger I agree.Pronger was an elite point getter in Junoir, and he was way tougher than Nurse in Junoir.Pronger came into the NHL and was almost from the get go an elite point getter, elite vision, passer, great shot and a much tougher player than Nurse is now.

    – I see similarities in their skating, and their size.To the extent past performance is predictive of future, Nurse hasn’t put up the points.He dosn’t show Prongers elite vision, isn’t nearly the passer, he takes a long time to wind up his shot, and isn’t as smartly physical as Proger.

    – Trade him to a team that sees him as the next Proger, and values him as such, and you do great on that trade in terms of what comes back.Or keep him and play him properly, so that in 3 years he is “a version of Pronger”: but he’s no “Chris Pronger” in training.

    *runs*

  175. SoCaloil says:

    LT)
    I agree that this draft has less value…although restocking the minors is important.
    I went to the Gulls – Condors game on Friday. Thank you for doing what you do. I knew something about most of the Condors players…and not the hometown gulls…hahah.

    What a game! Here are my overall impressions. I hope to get out more often although with a 7 month old its proving to be tough…maybe more next year.. Hope you enjoy

    I believe Laurikainen started the first…he’s rebound control was abysmal. The D bailed him out
    Ty Rimmer was shaky to start the 2nd, but after 2 shots he settled in. He made some key saves to keep the boys ahead the entire game. Still needs to be quicker to reset positionally after rebounds. Got beat by a hell of a shot, but i was pleased with overall performance.

    The D:
    Overall, need to be stronger around the crease and establish a better physical presence in front of their net. The reason the Gulls came back was partly due to just that.

    Individual performance:
    1) Hunt – Adventure, He showed that he can poorly close a gap and needs work on defensive part of the game. I don’t see him as an NHLer and I won’t be sad to see him go.
    2) Davidson – Was very pleased overall. Closed the gap very well and blocked a few shots well too. Neutralized a 3 on 2 by himself. Tripped up skating backwards and took a penalty to avoid a quality shot. Had issues holding the puck on the blue during a PP. But overall, one of the better defenders. Extra points for playing with Hunt because he didn’t seem to be of much help.
    3) Lallegia. – Exceptional and creative D to D passes that got the play going the other way. Showed speed when needed to. On one dump in he got back in a hurry to get an icing. Very fast. There’s plenty of work to be done ahead of him, but keep playing young man
    4) Pageau – Big man, he skated when he needed to. Need to see more to judge
    5) Musil – got an apple, fired the puck….don’t have much more to say
    6) Betker – Not too shabby – no negatives or positives to report.

    FWDS)
    1) Khaira was good. He was effective at both ends of the ice, skated the puck out, passed, it, moved it protected the puck. Beginning of the 2nd some small Gull tried to get the puck off him and Khaira stood up. May have delivered a shoulder of a stick ..IDK happened fast. The Gull was down for a while, and it was evident that an altercation was gonna happen. Khaira did not hesitate to drop the gloves and got kicked out of the game. Not really sure for what.. i thought the time did not fit the crime. I liked what i saw from him tho
    2) Sleppy skated miles and was moving the puck in the right direction. Every shift he was working hard and he got rewarded
    3) Pitlick – same as sleepy, although I think sleppy was better. They are the same player type so if Pitlick goes, so be it
    4) Klinkhammer – was interested in scoring goals and nothing else. Was not impressed with his 2 -way acumen or drive. Was skating fwd when the play was going the other way. Towards the end he was icing the puck like it’s a cake. The icing led to goals against. NOT Impressed…so long goodbye guy
    5) Winquist was winning some puck battles against the boards. Didn’t show much skill
    6) Yakimov – was surprised to see him back. Big man got an easy rebound. Long reach won a puck in the n-zone but did not stand out much.
    7) McRae showed skilled when he needed to …got a really nice breakaway goal. Wasn’t paying attention to him at first but will in the future
    8) Boychuck got really nice redirection at the top of the crease…it was magic. Who is this guy? He was playing a good physical game and I want to see more
    9) Roy, etc did not stand out at all

    as for gulls
    1) Khudobin was abysmal…full stop bad…for a guy who had NHL time, it’s shocking
    2) Hackett was much much better. Very aggressive to a big shot from the top of a circle. Despite the score, he did much better
    3) Shea Theodore did not live up to the hype. At one point he passed from behind the net right up the center to a condor. IT was shocking. He is a puck mover but needs refine PP decision making.
    4) Montour got a weird bounce goal. He was not afraid to stand up to anyone. From my buddies home town so I’ll look for him more.. worth price of admission
    5) Bailey and O’brien where out there a lot…and their overall performance was good when they where crashing the net.. a lot to handle

    Eakins was complaining to the refs b/f start of the 2nd. Who knows about what but I wonder if that had something to do with Khaira getting booted

    Anyways …fun game…hope you enjoy the recap…

  176. OilClog says:

    Nurse needs a Campbell on the third pair.

    Wait there’s Davidson, who plays a veteran game.

    A Davidson/Nurse pairing for your third pair is beautiful.

    Nurse isn’t here to score, he’s not here to put 30pts on the board.

    He’s here to shut it down.

    Shut down the corners, the net, the lanes.

    Shut down the intimidation.

    Be the intimidation.

    There’s no math for it, yet no one on this roster that has his capabilities.

    This organization dresses Osterle/Reinhart as a pair and Nikitin in the same game.

    This isn’t on the Kid, he’s full value.

  177. JDï™ says:

    SoCaloil: 2) Davidson – Was very pleased overall.

    Davidson?

  178. Lowetide says:

    SoCaloil:
    LT)
    I agree that this draft has less value…although restocking the minors is important.
    I went to the Gulls – Condors game on Friday.Thank you for doing what you do.I knew something about most of the Condors players…and not the hometown gulls…hahah.

    What a game!Here are my overall impressions.I hope to get out more often although with a 7 month old its proving to be tough…maybe more next year.. Hope you enjoy

    I believe Laurikainen started the first…he’s rebound control was abysmal.The D bailed him out
    Ty Rimmer was shaky to start the 2nd, but after 2 shots he settled in.He made some key saves to keep the boys ahead the entire game.Still needs to be quicker to reset positionally after rebounds.Got beat by a hell of a shot, but i was pleased with overall performance.

    The D:
    Overall, need to be stronger around the crease and establish a better physical presence in front of their net.The reason the Gulls came back was partly due to just that.

    Individual performance:
    1) Hunt – Adventure, He showed that he can poorly close a gap and needs work on defensive part of the game.I don’t see him as an NHLer and I won’t be sad to see him go.
    2) Davidson – Was very pleased overall.Closed the gap very well and blocked a few shots well too.Neutralized a 3 on 2 by himself.Tripped up skating backwards and took a penalty to avoid a quality shot.Had issues holding the puck on the blue during a PP.But overall, one of the better defenders.Extra points for playing with Hunt because he didn’t seem to be of much help.
    3) Lallegia.– Exceptional and creative D to D passes that got the play going the other way.Showed speed when needed to.On one dump in he got back in a hurry to get an icing.Very fast.There’s plenty of work to be done ahead of him, but keep playing young man
    4) Pageau – Big man, he skated when he needed to.Need to see more to judge
    5) Musil – got an apple, fired the puck….don’t have much more to say
    6) Betker – Not too shabby – no negatives or positives to report.

    FWDS)
    1) Khaira was good.He was effective at both ends of the ice, skated the puck out, passed, it, moved it protected the puck.Beginning of the 2nd some small Gull tried to get the puck off him and Khaira stood up.May have delivered a shoulder of a stick ..IDK happened fast.The Gull was down for a while, and it was evident that an altercation was gonna happen.Khaira did not hesitate to drop the gloves and gotkicked out of the game.Not really sure for what..i thought the time did not fit the crime.I liked what i saw from him tho
    2) Sleppy skated miles and was moving the puck in the right direction.Every shift he was working hard and he got rewarded
    3) Pitlick – same as sleepy, although I think sleppy was better.They are the same player type so if Pitlick goes, so be it
    4) Klinkhammer – was interested in scoring goals and nothing else.Was not impressed with his 2 -way acumen or drive.Was skating fwd when the play was going the other way.Towards the end he was icing the puck like it’s a cake.The icing led to goals against.NOT Impressed…so long goodbye guy
    5) Winquist was winning some puck battles against the boards.Didn’t show much skill
    6)Yakimov – was surprised to see him back.Big man got an easy rebound.Long reach won a puck in the n-zonebut did not stand out much.
    7)McRae showed skilled when he needed to …got a really nice breakaway goal.Wasn’t paying attention to him at first but will in the future
    8) Boychuck got really nice redirection at the top of the crease…it was magic. Who is this guy?He was playing a good physical game and I want to see more
    9) Roy, etc did not stand out at all

    as for gulls
    1) Khudobin was abysmal…full stop bad…for a guy who had NHL time, it’s shocking
    2) Hackett was much much better.Very aggressive to a big shot from the top of a circle.Despite the score, he did much better
    3) Shea Theodore did not live up to the hype.At one point he passed from behind the net right up the center to a condor.IT was shocking.He is a puck mover but needs refine PP decision making.
    4) Montour got a weird bounce goal.He was not afraid to stand up to anyone.From my buddies home town so I’ll look for him more.. worth price of admission
    5) Bailey and O’brien where out there a lot…and their overall performance was good when they where crashing the net.. a lot to handle

    Eakins was complaining to the refs b/f start of the 2nd.Who knows about what but I wonder if that had something to do with Khaira getting booted

    Anyways …fun game…hope you enjoy the recap…

    SOCALOIL: Awesome, thanks so much. Davidson? Do you mean Simpson?

  179. Bruce McCurdy says:

    JDï™: Davidson?

    Simpson??

  180. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention: Now that you’ve seen Draisaitl emerge, do you still think Sam Bennett is better?

    I like Leon a ton too, and always try to wait five years. So, I am a big fan of Leon, but the jury is out.

    https://lowetide.ca/2014/06/23/2014-final-top-30-and-mactmatty/

  181. stush18 says:

    nelson88:
    stush18,

    How much do you anticpate Okposo and Helm getting as free agent signings and Vatannen when you sign him as an RFA? Might be difficult to fit that roster under the cap in two years when you need to resign Drai and McDavid.

    Well this is my ideal summer, which I can’t see happening lol

    Trade korpikoski
    Trade fayne
    Trade yak
    Trade letestu

    Resign kassian @~2 mill
    Sign okposo @~ 6 mill
    Sign helm @~3mil

    Trade ebs for hamonic
    Trade for vatanen. Sign him long term @ ~5mill

    That should give us
    Hall (6)-nuge(6)-drai(3.4)
    Pou(4)-mcdavid(3.4)-okposo(6)
    Maroon(1.5)-helm(3)-kass(2)
    Hendricks(1.85)-lander(1)-pak(~1)

    Klef(4.2)-hamonic(3.8)
    Sekera(5.5)-vatanen(5)
    Davidson(1.5)-reinhart(3.4)

    Talbot(4.3)
    Brossoit(1)

    So that adds up to approx. 68 mil. But that’s a playoff team to my eye

    I really think we need to stop worrying about “future” cap problems. We will resign mcdavid, and really thats all that matters.

    You will walk away from poo, sekera, and possibly hall or nuge in a couple years. Stop worrying abou the cap for the future.

  182. JDï™ says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Simpson??

    One of your mouth-breathers from Sector 7G, sir.

  183. who says:

    flyfish1168: Hi LT

    I get the idea we need to turn up. But we need to be conscientious on asset management. I still feel trading one of the 6 million dollar players is a must. UFA signings due to CAP strap teams will help. Building the Mcdavid core since they are not affected by the expansion draftand retooling ourneeds with parts of the Hall group, we can still be competitive. This isn’t going to be an SC team in my view for another 3 years.

    I don’t want us to be a one or two year wonder. We can make this a competive and SC team for years if we mange our assests correctly. JMHO

    This. Especially the last paragraph. Let’s leave the window open as long as we can. That is what gives you the best chance to win a cup or multiple cups. I know it’s been ten long years but why limit the time frame by getting impatient now.
    Trade a winger for a dman this summer and let the rest of the group continue to improve. I think one quality dman let’s us contend for a playoff spot next year.

  184. meanashell11 says:

    Lowetide,

    No problem.

    As for Nurse for Harmonic, I live in CT and go to a lot of Islander and Rangers games, while Harmonic is solid, what you see is what you get. I prefer to suffer the growing pains with Nurse and Reinhart.

  185. jonrmcleod says:

    Regardless of what the math says this season, I think Nurse will be fine. With his combination of speed, athleticism, and size, I don’t see him failing like Cowen. Can anyone think of a defenseman with the physical tools of Nurse with similar junior production and pedigree who didn’t become a good NHL defenseman?

    Edit: I’ll probably get all kinds of examples, but I still think Nurse will be OK.

  186. G Money says:

    When mulling Davidson’s partner next year, assuming there isn’t someone new on the way, the WOWYs are interesting:

    http://i.imgur.com/BNiRXxz.png

  187. hunter1909 says:

    meanashell11:
    Lowetide,

    No problem.

    As for Nurse for Harmonic, I live in CT and go to a lot of Islander and Rangers games, while Harmonic is solid, what you see is what you get. I prefer to suffer the growing pains with Nurse and Reinhart.

    Thanks for posting this.

    Nurse has potential to put real fear in the hearts of the opposition. I remember just after his discussion with Getzlaf when one of the “tougher” Ducks came rushing over to challenge him. What I liked was seeing the Duck’s expression turn from aggressive to shit scared in the blink of an eye.

    Last night the Canucks felt bullied by Nurse and other tough players brought in by Chiarelli to replace various Barbara Ann Scotts foolishly brought in by the Lowe+MacT conundrum.

    R.I.P. Pat Quinn.

  188. böök¡je says:

    Woodguy:
    hunter1909,

    Sad that some are dismissing Nurse, like he’s in the process of busting anything aside from all of the assorted heads he’s been cracking on behalf of the team. They stick him above his rookie level and then people whine when he comes up a bit flat? I’m pity your children, since you probably nag them in exactly the same way

    Pity my children?

    Stop being such an asshole.

    I’m giving results.

    Its not the results fault that they rate a player you like so low.

    To be fair to Hunter, I suspects he pities all children because they were born into this shithole of a world that is full of nothing but misery, despair, and hopeless idiots.

    Note, I am speaking from Hunter’s perspective, I like the world, am not miserable, and only think about half the people in the world are idiots.

  189. hunter1909 says:

    böök¡je: To be fair to Hunter

    That’ll be the day.

    böök¡je: I suspects he pities all…

    I don’t pity anyone very much, aside from Oiler fans.

  190. BONVIE says:

    The time to close in on the Winnipeg Jets and obtain Tyler Myers is now. They have spent their cash on Buff already and they have Enstrom, Trouba, and Stuart. These Jets are hurting for some offense, we have some chips and we have that lottery pick that these fellow bottom feeders should be interested in as well. Close this deal and get the guy that will fill all of the holes on D with one transaction.

  191. striatic says:

    The Oilers’ upcoming schedule does not look favourable.

    5 games in 8 days, concluding with dates against the Sharks, Kings and Ducks?

    Brace for impact.

  192. Norman Greenbaum says:

    striatic:
    The Oilers’ upcoming schedule does not look favourable.

    5 games in 8 days, concluding with dates against the Sharks, Kings and Ducks?

    Brace for impact.

    In the last ten years, when has the schedule ever looked favourable?

    To go in the right direction, we have to start beating those teams sometime.

  193. Woodguy says:

    godot10: Nurse isn’t going to learn anything in the AHL.He is different than most young D in that he is hyper-assertive.He will only find his boundaries properly in the NHL on a 3rd pairing paired with a well-rounded competent veteran.

    To learn, a player has to be put in an environment that is suited to the player’s way of learning.Nurse won’t learn better decision-making in the AHL, because he can “out-run” his mistakes at that level.

    While I agree somewhat with your premise, he needs to work on “where the puck will be next”

    He’s always chasing.

  194. Woodguy says:

    Water Fire: I was just going to say you can’t replace Nuge with a rookie but Eberle is a wash. IMO you might even improve based on the rookie.

    I agree with that wholeheartedly.

    Nuge is the only 2way C on the roster.

    I think McLellan and Chia know that so I’m not too concerned.

  195. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy: He’s always chasing.

    As Nurse plays for the Oilers, I can’t for the life of me imagine where he learned that.

  196. Aron_S says:

    I just wanted to say, I’m going to the game tonight and taking my dad and uncle for what will be our last game in Rexall and then I made the mistake of reading LT’s Oilersnation GDT and predictions. Jeepers, that was a buzzkill.

    Here’s hoping for a big win and LB’s first career win after a few soft starts this season!

  197. striatic says:

    Norman Greenbaum: In the last ten years, when has the schedule ever looked favourable?

    To go in the right direction, we have to start beating those teams sometime.

    The Oilers need to start winning against these teams for sure, but that 5 games in 8 days ending the Sharks. Kings, Ducks would be daunting for any team in the NHL right now.

  198. hunter1909 says:

    Since Pronger left, following this team has been like being on the Titanic after breaking down the door to the lifejackets, only to discover the room is full of gold bars.

  199. rickithebear says:

    Lt:
    I dare you to stand in front of Sather and Mact.
    And say,
    PC arranged the Talbot trade
    PC won the lottery!

    That is all I ask you to do as a man of convivtion and honor, who continues to hold this position.
    Can you video tape it and post it here. It is not like I am expecting are you nuts look.

    I want to believe you!

  200. Lowetide says:

    rickithebear:
    Lt:
    I dare you to stand in front of Sather and Mact.
    And say,
    PC arranged the Talbot trade
    PC won the lottery!

    That is all I ask you to do as a man of convivtion and honor, who continues to hold this position.
    Can you video tape it and post it here. It is not like I am expecting are you nuts look.

    I want to believe you!

    And I want to understand you! It is a difficult life!

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