G76 2015-16: OILERS AT COYOTES

by Lowetide

We are about one year into the Peter Chiarelli era, and the range of views about his work in those 12 months is wide. Some feel there is little or no progress—and any that has taken place is due to improvement of the youths—while others feel the long road north has now been joined and it is only a matter of time. All agree that the trade and procurement record is uneven and not easily explained.

BEGGAR’S BREAKFAST, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
  • Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
  • Oilers in December 2014: 2-8-4
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1
  • Oilers in January 2015: 5-7-1
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2
  • Oilers in February 2015: 5-6-1
  • Oilers in February 2016: 4-8-2
  • Oilers in March 2015: 5-6-3
  • Oilers in March 2016: 6-5-0
  • Oilers after 75 in 2014-15: 22-40-13, 57 points (-71 GD)
  • Oilers after 75 in 2015-16: 29-39-7, 65 points (-38 GD)

Nelson’s Oilers G76 marched into Denver and won 4-1, and at that point were running down some teams ahead of them. From tonight through the end of the year, Edmonton went 2-4-1 to finish 24-44-14, 62 points. If the Oilers can match it, and that is a tall order based on this week’s road trip, McLellan’s crew will finish 31-43-8, 70 points. The GDs remain markedly improved year over year.

DEFENSE, 2015-16

OILERS DEFENSE OVER SEASON

  • As we get deeper into this discussion, I think there is some room for a conversation that brings back Andrej Sekera, Oscar Klefbom and Brandon Davidson on LH side, and then a (mostly) new set of blue on RH side. Fair? Assuming Klefbom and Davidson are healthy?
  • Mark Fayne is signed for two more years, and trading him may involve sending an extra asset or retaining. Why do that? Seems to me he could play a role here, and allow the Oilers to push down the prospects to the AHL for recall (remember, 14 D have played in Edmonton this season).
  • Jason Demers is a player who looks like a reasonable bet and he costs only money. If the Oilers add (via trade) a legit defender, and run Demers and Fayne, does that work?

demers capture

  • Klefbom—Jason Demers
  • Sekera—Sami Vatanen
  • Davidson—Fayne
  • (No. 7 could be any number of players)

If you can make a deal for Vatanen, sign Demers, and keep Fayne, the starting six have plenty of experienced men, a reasonable option for the PP (Vatanen is 4-14-18 on the PP and has 133 shots on goal this year). What would it take? Don’t know.

CENTERS, 2015-16

OILERS CENTERS OVER SEASON1

LEFT WINGERS, 2015-16

OILERS LW OVER SEASON

RIGHT WINGERS, 2015-16

OILERS RW OVER SEASON

  • Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Taylor Hall, Benoit Pouliot and Jordan Eberle all scored 2.00/60 at 5×5 or damn close this season. That is a tremendous foundation for a bona fide offense—and the Oilers badly need one. The last Oilers team to outscore its goaltending? The Pronger Oilers.
  • Ryan Nugent—Hopkins, Patrick Maroon, Mark Letestu, Zack Kassian and a right-handed shooter for the power play might get this crazy bird turned around.
  • If you could address the defense without upsetting the forwards, would you?

LAINE22

  • Pouliot—McDavid—Eberle
  • Hall—Draisaitl—Laine
  • Maroon—RNH—Kassian

Can the Oilers afford to add Demers, Vatanen and Laine, while saying goodbye to only Nikita Nikitin, Andrew Ference (LTIR)—while also factoring in the additions of Talbot and Klefbom’s new deals? The NHL Cap could go as to $74.4 million according to recent estimates.

  • Goal: Cam Talbot $4.167 million; Laurent Brossoit $750,000 (TOTAL: $4.917 million)
  • Defense: Andrej Sekera $5.5 million; Jason Demers $5.0 million(est); Oscar Klefbom $4.167 million; Mark Fayne $3.625 million; Sami Vatanen $5.0 million(est); Brandon Davidson $1.425 million; Eric Gryba $1.0 million (estimate). (TOTAL: $ 25.717 million)
  • Center: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins $6 million; Connor McDavid $3.775 million; Leon Draisaitl $3.4 million; Mark Letestu $1.8 million; Anton Lander $988,000. (TOTAL: $15.963 million).
  • Left Wing: Taylor Hall $6 million; Benoit Pouliot $4 million; Patrick Maroon $1.5 million; Jujhar Khaira $894,000. Lauri Korpikoski $2.7 million. (TOTAL: $12.394 million).
  • Right Wing: Jordan Eberle $6 million; Patrik Laine $3.775 million (estimate); Zack Kassian $2.4 million (estimate); Matt Hendricks $1.85 million; Iiro Pakarinen $1.0 million (estimate). (TOTAL: $15.025 million).
  • OVERALL: $74,016,000.
  • Is there a way to shoe-horn Kyle Okposo onto this roster? No.
  • I have moved Nail Yakupov and Lauri Korpikoski from the roster for the purposes of this conversation. Yakupov should be a fairly easy move, far less certain about the Finn.
  • Patrik Laine was added via No. 2 overall selection.
  • Sami Vatanen was added via Darnell Nurse and sundry items. I don’t think there is a snowball’s chance in hell this happens, but wanted to see if we could cobble together an improved defensive roster without impacting the forwards.
  • I do think Nurse has substantial trade value. Having seen him live, his dynamic combination of size and speed is impressive. The fact he could be ineligible for the coming expansion draft adds to his value in a deal like the one I am suggesting with Anaheim.
  • Yesterday, I made a list of assets in play, based on reaction it is probably a good time to publicly proclaim that I don’t hate any of the people mentioned in the piece, you the reader, or really anyone. Discussing trade options does not equal hatred, anger, stupidity, ‘boner’ or any such thing. Thanks.
  • In this model, we address top pairing defense (Demers), second pairing plus power-play qb (Vatanen) and RH sniper (Laine). We also retain the strength at center and leave the wingers in place, sans Yakupov. I didn’t replace Lander, but Chiarelli will this summer.

DRAFT DAY TRADE IDEAS

As we have discussed at length, any trade that moves out RNH must also bring back a center. If the Oilers make the trade suggested by Mr. Solbak, a Frans Nielsen would also have to be added. Not ideal, especially considering there is no guarantee Nielsen signs in Edmonton.

Pronman is a smart guy and he definitely has access, so this is an interesting confirmation of what I have been reading/hearing. Juolevi’s NHLE is in the range with the other three defensemen I have in my top 10 (Chychrun, Sergachev, Jake Bean), so this (somewhat) late break should come as no surprise. It also means there is every chance we will see a ‘Cam Fowler slide’ this year—a consensus top 10 selection falling outside the top 10 overall.

Dustin Nelson has a piece out about the expansion draft and teams who could be giving up something very good. I will write a lot about the coming expansion draft, but history teaches us that the first draft of the expansion rules has no real relationship to the final one. The chances of the final draft of that document being released before the activities of this summer are not high based on history. We wait, but Nelson did a fine job of taking a photo of the current situation.

we hoped for the best

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey. Oilers in Arizona, Oilers over summer, Oilers when the walls fell.
  • Guy Flaming, Pipeline Show. Oil Kings in Medicine Hat tonight for a one-game entry into the playoffs. The Tigers ran over the OK in the regular season. Can Edmonton turn it around?
  • Kerry Miller, Bleacher Report. March Madness continues, we will talk about the upsets and the new favorites to win it all.
  • Steve Kournianos, The Draft Analyst. I want to drill down on this movement among defensemen at the top of the draft.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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who

Evilas:
who,

What, where, why, when, how?

You’ve made a very sweeping statement.

Yeah too lazy to type anything else last night.
Okay the first trade you are asking for the devils best dman and best center for Nuge and throw ins or salary dumps. I would break it down as Sev for Griff, Nuge for Henrique and picks. I can almost follow you there but that leaves Fayne and Yak for Larsson. Can’t see that happening
Second trade is Eberle for Smith and draft picks. But then you are asking for Ellis and Sissons for Letestu (4th line center,salary dump) Musil (waiver loss next fall) and Yakimov (don’t think anyone know what he is yet) If you were Nashville would you make that trade.
Third trade is a salary dump. Don’t see any GM taking Korp’s contract.
Got no problem with trades 4 and 5 and I don’t even know who Russo is. Neither one is a blockbuster.

stevezie

Lowetide:
Reinhart hits the crossbar. He has had his best game as an Oiler tonight by my eye.

This is the best possible news for Nurse lovers. If Reinhart can get his value up, maybe we can trade him for a rhD instead of Darnell.

It will be weird if they’re both here next September- unless things go bad with Klef or Davidson, which they might.

nelson88

Only caught the highlights so nice to hear Reinhart had a good game with the exception of the 3rd goal. Cheering for the kid.

Seem to recall Gregor or someone mentioning that the Oil Kings had challenged him to work on his conditioning and he made great strides back in junior. I hope he uses this summer to demonstrate is commitment to improving his leg strength and explosiveness. If he can gain a step he has the opportunity to be a very effective NHL defender.

SwedishPoster

G Money:
I’ll leave this out there in case anyone wants to see one of these at some point:

Would be a nice little playoff treat for us hockey fans(and nerdalert fans) and as we all know the Oilers don’t do playoffs so…

On Oesterle he did get smashed a few times but I don’t remember it leading to any big chances against or massive giveaways. He needs to get stronger to be able to contain the bigger forwards and also for him to stay healthy but getting hit is one thing, it will happen, the most important thing is where the puck goes. And so far this stretch it seems to be going in the right direction when he’s got it.

AsiaOil

Johnny skid: adam clendening might have hada hand in that stat also.

Seems clear they are going to keep Clendening on the NHL roster until the end of the year to retain his RFA rights. Had some hope he might be worth developing – but it doesn’t look like he will amount to anything more than an AHL callup.

Oesterle has wonderful wheels and passing but got squished like an irritating bug multiple times tonight. Also assisted GR in totally screwing up on the 3rd goal. Kid could have a career if he puts 20 lbs on that frame, really strengthens his legs, and watches a lot of film on how Spurgeon plays.

Nurse – the tools are all there but need a lot of honing in the AHL – full season next year please

Reinhart – he snuck in from the point again to ring one off the crossbar tonight and will get some points at the NHL level. Much more assertive as compared to earlier in the season and was aggressive and abrasive tonight. Here is my take on GR – his skating is not bad – but it’s not a plus either. He’d be a great match for a RHD who is a great skater and puck mover – a guy like Barrie or Vatanen – basically a rich-man’s Oesterle. Terrible match with slugs like Fayne and Gryba. Longterm Nurse GR is interesting even if they are both LHD.

Bruce McCurdy

G Money:
I’ll leave this out there in case anyone wants to see one of these at some point:

Thanks, G.

Bruce McCurdy

Lowetide:
That last hit saw Oesterle hammer the boards and that is a concern. Slight chance we see boaty mcboat in California.

My wife thought it was boarding. Mind you, she was agreeing with me at the time. But we just got rocketed into the wall there, that was ugly.

Bruce McCurdy

Johnny skid: adam clendening might have hada hand in that stat also.

Indubitably. Clendening had a rough night. But Oilers were outshot 12-2 in the 12 minutes Nurse was on with Clendening & 6-1 in the 4 minutes he was on with a different partner. So … yeah.

G Money

I’ll leave this out there in case anyone wants to see one of these at some point:

Anyone want to see a "NerdAlert" post game on a non-Oiler game? Other than my paragraph of commentary, the whole damn thing is automatic.— Oilers Nerd Alert (@OilersNerdAlert) 23 March 2016

G Money

Evilas,

Ha ha, I wasn’t responding specifically to your post, just adding some info.

I think what you saw is reflected in the ‘iHitA’ column (individual hits against). Oesterle was hit three times, as was Reinhart. But Reinhart dished out two of his own, Oesterle zero.

And I suspect also that Oesterle came out of the hits a lot worse than did Reinhart.

Now that doesn’t change that they both had very effective games overall, but it does jive with that aspect of your impression.

But it is a good demonstration of why its so valuable to check your observations with the numbers – our brains are wired to remember those big events (whether positive or negative), but not really notice the small effective plays through the course of the game.

€√¥£€^$

G Money,

I concede, lol, I just came back here from your game summary.

But I did see at least 4 instances where Oesterle was basically a mosquito that was easily swatted away in the D-Zone, this can leave as big an impression with some of these “seen em good” hockey guys as end to end rushes. But Chia is a smart man, I am pretty sure he “gets it”.

I retract my prediction.

G Money

These are my stats lines for ReinOes:

http://i.imgur.com/wZiuBo3.png

Apart from that one goal, they were both very very good.

€√¥£€^$

Caramel Batman,

Osterle is great with the puck on his stick and a little bit of room, but he got rocked a lot and he was like a boy amongst men on many of his shifts. He couldn’t cope with the size and strength of many of the Arizona forwards. Despite some success, I predict he will be given the Andrew Miller treatment.

Mustard Tiger

Capitalizing on your scoring chances is a skill, and as a team, the Oilers are very bad at this skill. It has been that way pretty much all season.

€√¥£€^$

who,

What, where, why, when, how?

You’ve made a very sweeping statement.

AsiaOil

Ahhhhh – right – you slam GR for the 3rd goal (rightfully) but ignore Oesterle doing the equivalent of eating popcorn and picking his nose while Rieder skates right by him unmolested while he pots the goal on his side of the net. Talk about cherry picking facts. Even I said I was happy that Eberle scored again tonight and he played a pretty good game.

Caramel Batman:
That’s as good as I’ve seen Reinhart play.And yet, he let Reider go right past him on the winning goal.

Nurse and Reinhart have really struggled but they are still better than Clendening.

Oesterle, on the other hand, is the real deal.

G Money

Is it my scripts, or the weird statskeepers at Gila River Arena? The Oilers were tagged with 0 (zero, nada, none, zilch) giveaways.— Oilers Nerd Alert (@OilersNerdAlert) 23 March 2016

Johnny skid

Bruce McCurdy:
Nirse played 16:13 at evens during which time Oilers were outshot 18-3.

adam clendening might have had a hand in that stat also.

Bruce McCurdy

Nirse played 16:13 at evens during which time Oilers were outshot 18-3.

G Money

stush18: Do you guys think that goal was Reinharts fault?
Seemed to me that Reinhart had his man (Richardson), and left him to chase rieder when he realized that he had a free lane to the net.

It was a comedy of errors from start to finish. If any player (and linesman I should add) in that sequence had made the right play, it probably would have been stuffed. Reinhart was just the last one in line to get splashed with urine.

Gerta Rauss
who

Thought the Oilers were awful in the first two periods. Careless and lazy. Didn’t look interested at all. Maybe Arizona should have pissed them off earlier cause they had a better third. That rush by Yak in the third was fun to watch. He teases you like that once a game and then he disappears.

Bruce McCurdy

Sharks with the rare 6 on 3

godot10

MacT was already advising Lowe when the Rieder decision was made.

Forcing Rieder to accept a 4th round salary when he played like a 2nd rounder is a Lowe/MacT type of thing, not a Tambellini one. Remember Lowe and MacT did the same thing a decade earlier, playing hardball with Matthew Lombardi, a fifth or sixth round pick who outperformed.

Bruce McCurdy

McSorley33:
Only caught last 15 min of game……lots of chances.

Then with less than 60 seconds left to play……Mark Letestu comes out.

Wow.

Letestu is the guy who made it 3-2.

LMHF#1

McSorley33:
Only caught last 15 min of game……lots of chances.

Then with less than 60 seconds left to play……Mark Letestu comes out.

Wow.

I can’t understand the way coaches have ‘their guys”. It’s such a pain. It’s one thing when you’re Sather and your guy is named Gretzky. We get Reddox, Petersen, Ryan Jones, Letestu….so much wasted ice time.

One day all the coaches and management won’t just be former players. One day.

stush18

Do you guys think that goal was Reinharts fault?

Seemed to me that Reinhart had his man (Richardson), and left him to chase rieder when he realized that he had a free lane to the net.

I thought it was a case of inexperience by mcdavid and oesterle not knowing to switch their men off the draw.

Oesterle should have either followed his man (reider) to the corner, or communicated with mcdavid to chase him and then cover whoever was taking the faceoff.

who

Evilas:
I love the Nuge, but his contract, along with Eberle’s will handcuff the team when it is time for Drai & McD to sign their next contracts… so I look to move both of them for the best value possible, Hall is too much of a driver that I would not move him.I pray for Stamkos, but the alternatives would be Okposo, Staal or Backes.

This roster moves the dial forward, gives the team a power play punch, stocks the RD cupboards and populates the roster with plenty of R shooters and players who can play in the top 9 as necessary and gives the team a reliable back up for 1 year to enable LB to incubate and pushes Darnell off the roster for at least 1 year, as well as adds more bullets.I think this is a play-off roster and I haven’t even accounted for the 2016 1st rounder, Slepyshev’s development and other bottom-roster challengers….
This won’t be the play by Chia, but I expect, or rather demand similar type moves.
———————————————————————————————————————————–
Trades:

1. NJD – Henrique, Larsson, Severson + 2016 & 2017 2nd + 2016 3rd for RNH, Yak, Fayne & Reinhart
2. Nashville – Ellis, Smith, Sissons + 2016 2nd, 2017 3rd for Eberle, Letestu, Yakimov & Musil
3. CBJ – Ramage (RHD Org Depth) + 2016 6th round pick for Korpikoski
4. Min – 2017 5th for Hendricks
5. Detroit – Russo (RHD Org Depth) for Lander

Buyout:Andrew Ference: $1,083,333

Pouliot-McDavid-Stamkos (5 x $10.5)
Hall-Draisaitl-Smith
Maroon-Henrique-Stewart (3 x $2)
Khaira-Brodziak (1 x $0.9) -Kassian (1 x $1.9)
—————————-
Klefbom – Larsson
Sekera – Ellis
Davidson – Severson
Pardy (1 x $0.875)
—————————
Talbot – Reimer (1 x $2.75)
—————————Cap Hit:$66,452,000

These are great trades. FOR THE OILERS. If you are the GM of the other teams these trades get you fired.

HT Joe

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Tambelliniiiiiiiiiiiiii!

Oh man, seriously? Thanks for correcting that… I can’t even keep up with who to blame these days.

*EDIT*
Rieder / Kessy trade Mar 29, 2013
MacT named GM Apr 15, 2013
(Whew… I was close at least)

Frank the dog

G Money:
Man that hit to the head on Nuge.

Open season, man, open season.

This. All year long.

McSorley33

Only caught last 15 min of game……lots of chances.

Then with less than 60 seconds left to play……Mark Letestu comes out.

Wow.

HeatTreaterJoe: Reider schmeider… wait until the ‘Yotes get a load of Kessy… someday?
(**doing best William Shatner Star Trek II impersonation… “MacTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT”)

Tambelliniiiiiiiiiiiiii!

HT Joe

Caramel Batman:
That’s as good as I’ve seen Reinhart play.And yet, he let Reider go right past him on the winning goal.

Reider schmeider… wait until the ‘Yotes get a load of Kessy… someday?
(**doing best William Shatner Star Trek II impersonation… “MacTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT”)

Johnny skid

JDï™: Why don’t you go troll verdud over at ON?

did i hurt your feelings?

JD_Wry

Johnny skid: yes i was,what did i miss?

Why don’t you go troll verdud over at ON?

Cassandra

That’s as good as I’ve seen Reinhart play. And yet, he let Reider go right past him on the winning goal.

Nurse and Reinhart have really struggled but they are still better than Clendening.

Oesterle, on the other hand, is the real deal.

G Money

AsiaOil,

Yeah, that one. But lots of others too. Lots of chances but no EV goals.

G Money

Bruce McCurdy:
Doan gets the veteran call on the icing.

Wait, was it the ‘veteran’ call, or was it the ‘good Canadian character guy’ call?

I can never tell.

HT Joe

Bruce McCurdy:
Doan gets the veteran call on the icing.

Would it be worth backing up the Brinks Truck on Jagr’s doorstep for a huge 1yr payday, just so the Oilers could start to get some of these “veteran calls”?

I’m not even joking… would that help?

Arizona 19-0-4 against the Oilers the past 23 games. 42 points out of a possible 46.

That’s just…

AsiaOil

Yeah they buried them in the 3rd – but Hall has to pot that 2 on 1 instead of missing the net after being perfectly fed by Drai. Liked Kassian a lot in that period. Out little guys got fed as usual but at least there was some push-back from our new beef.

G Money:
No finish on critical chances – classic Oilers against the Coyotes.

Gerta Rauss

an A for effort

that’s too bad

JD_Wry

G Money,

Couldn’t buy a chance either. Still, impressive push to tie it in the third.

Bruce McCurdy

Doan gets the veteran call on the icing.

Johnny skid

JDï™: I can only guess you’re not watching these last minutes.

yes i was,what did i miss?

G Money

No finish on critical chances – classic Oilers against the Coyotes.