SOUNDS FROM THE STREET

by Lowetide

The Oilers lost a game they should have gotten a point (or two) from, but it has long since stopped mattering. We can look forward to the final three games of the season, the draft lottery and then Edmonton becoming trade central leading up to and during the draft. If there is any coin left we can chat about free agency.

FUN FUN FUN, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
  • Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
  • Oilers in December 2014: 2-8-4
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1
  • Oilers in January 2015: 5-7-1
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2
  • Oilers in February 2015: 5-6-1
  • Oilers in February 2016: 4-8-2
  • Oilers in March 2015: 5-6-3
  • Oilers in March 2016: 7-8-0
  • Oilers after 79 in 2014-15: 23-43-13, 59 points (-82 GD)
  • Oilers after 79 in 2015-16: 30-42-7, 67 points (-40 GD)

It is difficult to get upset about the game (zebra’s aside), the Oilers rolled out a poor defensive group again and that cost them. If there is one lesson I hope Edmonton management learns from this season (and previous management never learned it) it is that balance is required and that defense is played more effectively with more than less veterans in the top 6D.

HIGH-DANGER SCORING CHANCES

  • Two: Connor McDavid, Taylor Hall, Nail Yakupov, Leon Draisaitl, Zack Kassian
  • One: Andrej Sekera, Mark Letestu, Adam Cracknell

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

oilers blue nov 30

  • Sekera—Fayne had a nice night, lots of calm moments and moving pucks up. Interesting that the duo (Sekera) faced the Getzlaf line only 4:13, while seeing Kesler 6:02. The Ducks are a hornet’s nest, but I think Boudreau may have gotten better matchups with some Bowman shuffling. One good thing: Fayne played more than two other defensemen last night, so that is progress. I am now convinced the Oilers could run this exact pairing next season and emerge as a playoff team. Lots of minutes, many good decisions, great coverage. Fayne does not have speed, and he is not going to lead the team in successful sorties, but he is a solid defender. Sekera doesn’t get as many pucks through as we want and he isn’t a big bruiser, but he is a fine passer and can make plays in every part of the ice. Both veterans. More, please.
  • Nurse—Clendening both hit 50 percent in possession (I have 49 above for Clendening, fat fingers) but both men had tough moments. Clendening pinched on goal one and on the second GA could not get control of the situation during an addled 15 seconds by the team in their own zone. I liked Nurse better, but he also made some poor decisions—the Ducks are a fantastic breakout team and Darnell didn’t adjust well. Liked his compete against Getzlaf though, going to enjoy having him track that center for the next few years.
  • Oesterle—Reinhart had their ‘fire in the hole’ moments but overall got out of trouble without a lot of damage. GR had three blocks and played 21 minutes, battled hard and either delayed or crushed sorties consistently. I think he is winning an NHL job, perhaps freeing Chiarelli to deal another lefty. Oesterle had some good moments with the puck and transported enough to qualify for beam up from Scotty—his wheels are terrific, really like that part of his game. Those trips up the ice didn’t result in anything, but to my eye a lot of that had to do with an extremely effective Ducks team. Oesterle got the pucks to good places several times.
  • Cam Talbot had a fine night by my eye. He gave up a perfect shot goal to Perry early and then had reason to sue for non-support on the second goal.

CENTERS, LAST NIGHT

oil c nov 30

WINGERS, LAST NIGHT

oilers f nov 30

  • Korpikoski—Letestu—Kassian had some good moments, Letestu had a nice chance and Kassian was more involved than he has been lately. I am seeing Letestu better as the season wears along, he does some nice subtle things (conquered a two-on-one by batting the puck out of the air. Impressive) and Korpikoski had a good night to my eye. Need more offense from this line.
  • Hall—Draisaitl—Yakupov had a solid night, getting the goal and six scoring chances—along with six shots on goal. Leon had two high-danger scoring chances but no shots according to the scoring—unusual—and seemed to have some of his sorcery passes back in his quiver. Hall might have been the best Oiler, he was bringing it every shift, great passes and drove to the net with authority. I thought Nail had a helluva game—scored a goal, battled for every inch and won the puck a few times. A fine evening by this line.
  • Hendricks-Lander-Cracknell did fine for a 4line, I always enjoy Lander’s winning faceoffs. I think the coach values that side of the game, but suspect Lander’s footspeed means that FO ability isn’t enough to keep him in the lineup. Plus the lack of offense. Hendricks was Hendricks, he hasn’t stopped working since he got here. I do like Cracknell as a 4line option, he brings veteran savvy along with the physical play. More veterans, please.
  • Maroon—McDavid—Eberle had two scoring chances and six shots on goal, didn’t cash and that is going to happen. This is a fantastic trio, though. McDavid generates a lot on his own, I like the big man on the portside and Eberle—despite having the yips these days (will not take a one-timer) is a nice match for McDavid. He could pop 40 next year.

https://twitter.com/NicholsOnHockey/status/714534039298781185

Taylor Hall is the only player on this team not named Connor McDavid who is guaranteed to push the 5×5 river. You can put him with a reasonable center and expect production in any year—he is 1.77 with Leon and 2.52 with the Nuge—and the moment Chiarelli trades him Connor McDavid becomes the main target. Pushing the river is a rare, rare, skill. Trading Taylor Hall—in his prime—is worthy of instant dismissal. Fans paid in full for that pick with the blood, sweat and tears of their labor, and starting the damned car in -40 after a game that winter was no screaming hell, either.

https://twitter.com/NicholsOnHockey/status/714533077800726528

I think we might be looking at a Nuge-for-blue trade and then signing back David Backes or something along those lines. I have mentioned that the die is probably cast for some time now. One suspects they will try to get a defenseman and a center in the deal (in that January article I suggest Boone Jenner and Travis Hamonic, but Jenner doesn’t take a lot of faceoffs despite being over 50 percent) and more than the Nuge could be heading out.

NAILING THE RETURN

  • Allan Muir, SI: For a deal to happen then, the Oilers likely will have to settle for a combination of B-level picks and prospects. Remember that the Bruins sent two second rounders to Tampa for former No. 6 pick Brett Connolly in 2015. It seemed like a vast overpayment then and now (he was scratched for Boston’s 3-1 win over Toronto on Saturday), but it’s possible that a deal could be made using that swap as a guideline. Source

I would rather see the return being something a little more immediately useful (Mark Pysyk, Damon Severson) and if not then keep him and maybe that is the guy you lose at the expansion draft. If the return isn’t there, Chiarelli would be wise to keep his powder dry. The Oilers do not have a history of doing well with dealing players who have requested trades. In a negotiation, indifference to the outcome gives one leverage. You may argue that his value is reduced if you don’t deal him, but I would argue that a feature role next year probably increases his value markedly. He can score goals, got one last night. Keep him with a skill C for 82 games, see if he has 20 points then.

https://twitter.com/NicholsOnHockey/status/714805701093105664

Jimmy Vesey is a guy Kirk Luedeke was talking about to anyone who would listen back in the day.

  • Luedeke: Jim Vesey, LW Belmont Hill (High-MA)– He has nice size, hands and excellent hockey sense. His dad, Jim Sr., is from Charlestown, Mass. and was a legend at Merrimack College in the mid-80’s when he racked up goals and points in bunches. His son is a better skater than he was, and the senior Vesey tallied 126 goals in three seasons with the IHL’s Peoria Rivermen when he was a Blues farmhand in the late 80’s. Jimmy is proving that the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree and has some real potential for an NHL team that can look past the competition level and envision him as a long-term prospect worth investing a pick on.  Source

Sounds to me as though Luedeke believes Vesey might be headed to Toronto. I would be shocked to my shoes if Edmonton landed him, but then again McDavid changes everything.

POULIOT, YAK TO ANAHEIM?

  • Jason Gregor: My source mentioned at the time the Ducks were close (not guaranteed but close) on a deal with Yakupov and Benoit Pouliot prior to the trade deadline, but the injury to Pouliot put an end to those discussions. Source

Hmm. I have always felt (and stated) Pouliot as an Oiler under McLellan didn’t seem to be a happy fit, maybe all of those offensive zone penalties have given the wrong impression. Based on the numbers, Pouliot is a very good winger and a player who can slide up and down the depth chart easily. It would be so Oilers to cash Pouliot because Maroon has been hot since arrival, but then again if these rumors are true they were talking about BP to ANA before Maroon. Who could be coming back? One of the blue? One of the goalies? Picks? No idea. The guy I bet Anaheim would be willing to move is Cam Fowler, don’t know that he is what the doctor ordered here (lefty, that Fowler, and has not had a splendid season). One hopes they were talking Vatanen and Gibson, but the value placed on Pouliot by Edmonton might suggest Bob Murray didn’t need to offer front line talent.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun show with smart guests today (and everyday!). Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey. Last night, Nail, Benoit, Nuge and Taylor: Who is out through the in door?
  • Guy Flaming, Pipeline Show. Oil Kings, CHL Playoffs, Frozen Four.
  • Scott Rintoul, TSN 1040 Vancouver. What the hell are the Canucks up to?
  • Corey Pronman, ESPN. The impressive 2015 draft by the Oilers, and some of the players behind Matthews and the Finns in the 4-6 overall range.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

 

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jonrmcleod

***SPAM ALERT***

Another loss…

Any reasons for optimism?

I’m glad you asked! I just wrote something about that: http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/03/reasons-optimistic-2016-17-oilers/

Also, you’re in for an extra treat if you like bad album covers.

Woodguy

We are going to go insane with all the time between now and the draft.

So much will happen (finally, for better or worse) but the uncertainty about it all may kill some due to stress.

4 days until the Oilers next game, then 3 days off, then 2 days off and the final game.

Nice of the NHL to run the Oilers ragged but give them a giant break near the All Star game then again at the end of the year.

Putrid schedule, that was only partially made up for with all the “scheduled wins” the Oilers had this year (I think they only cashed on or two, certainly lost the last two against SJS and ARI, both via shut out)

Also,

I really don’t want the Oilers to trade Pouliot as he’s a value contract, but if the deal is Yak + Pou for Vantanen + Maroon (with 500k held), that’s pretty close to value I think and is a straight swap on $$$ (assuming Vatanen signs long term for $5MM or so)

Fills a big need at 2RD and refills the LW depth for 2 years.

I’d be ok with it if Chiarelli finished the trade after the playoffs.

JD_Wry

jonrmcleod: Also, you’re in for an extra treat if you like bad album covers.

Truer words have not been transmitted through tubes.

Thanks for the writeup too!

Captain's Log

Last night provided the best example of why the challenge on offsides has to go – it only works in one direction.

You can’t get scoring chances back that were wrongly taken away. The league wants to increase scoring and entertainment and so they introduce a challenge that slows the game down and only takes away offence. All because of one incident where a player was blatantly offside. Get rid of this bloody challenge already.

Rondo

LT,

Can you ask Corey Pronman about early and late birthdays for the draft . Specifically Dubois and Sergachov .

Woodguy

Rondo:
LT,

Can youask Corey Pronman about early and late birthdays for the draft given that Dubois and Sergachov since they are younger than most in top 20.

Yes please.

Have him flesh out what he found about late and early birthdays.

Its critical, critical stuff.

Thanks.

hunter1909

They finally play Yakupov, who’s only a first overall pick for an entire year a pair of good players and voila he scores the game’s first goal.

Therefore, as an Oiler fan we’re supposed to all join hands with Katz/Lowe/MacT and gleefully argue how we can’t wait to see him traded.

I’m too pissed about this shitty team to care much anymore though, and expect more of the same thing next season.

frjohnk

“Leon had two high-danger scoring chances but no shots according to the scoring—unusual—and seemed to have some of his sorcery passes back in his quiver”

About high danger chances, around 73% of all HDSC in the league actually become a shot on net.

SoCaloil

I was very heartened with the level of compete out of our top 6 against both ANA & LAK.
This is the season we will look back on and say the kids learned to play for one another and for the coach. They haven’t done that in the past.

Whether its McLellan or McDavid’s compete level idk. But at the end of this pudrid season, I think McLellan got what he wanted out of this group. I’m starting to see near full 60 minutes. And despite the score, and the refs, it was a darn fun game to watch.

I good with Yak + Pou for Vatenen and Maroon. Not sure if Yak will succeed in ANA. I don’t see Getslaf or Kessler as the type of C for YAK. Hell would have to freeze over before ANA trades Gibson. They will keep Anderson too because they don’t have too much depth in G below those two and they haven’t in years. (Bryz & Khudobin plugs).

Woodguy

jonrmcleod,

That was hilarious.

Well done.

Also,

The woman nuzzling with her dummy is very disconcerting.

frjohnk

jonrmcleod:
***SPAM ALERT***

Another loss…

Any reasons for optimism?

I’m glad you asked! I just wrote something about that: http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/03/reasons-optimistic-2016-17-oilers/

Also, you’re in for an extra treat if you like bad album covers.

great post.

Those album covers are mint

vinotintazo

hunter1909,

to be fair he’s been playing there for a few games now.

OF17

What about Yak to the Rangers for one of their RFAs?

They have Hayes, Kreider, and Miller who should be looking for substantial contracts this offseason, and I can’t see them trading Brassard, Stepan, Nash, or Zuccarello. New York has cap issues coming up, and I can see a scenario where they’d be interested in cashing one of those RFA forwards for a guy making $2.5 million with RFA rights after this year who’s a good bet to go at least 15-15-30 with an actual role on the team.

Any of the three would be an upgrade on Yak IMO. They score more, they’re young, and if they don’t have size, they play C in addition to W. The question is which NYR would deal, and given they have Nash and Zuccarello as natural LWs and not much on RW, I bet it’s either Kreider or Miller. So you’d either run Hall-Pouliot-Kreider/Miller at LW and Maroon at RW or deal Pouliot to ANA for that defender.

Yak has a value contract. In a summer where money will be very tight for a lot of teams, that has to be a key factor in his return. If it isn’t, Chiarelli isn’t using his assets to their fullest. Thankfully I’m more confident in Chiarelli getting it right than in any general manager I’ve ever closely followed (2006 product speaking).

Woodguy

SoCaloil,

Not sure if Yak will succeed in ANA. I don’t see Getslaf or Kessler as the type of C for YAK.

Yak is a left shot, so its easier for RHC to set him up for 1 timers.

Getzlaf, Kesler and Rackell (top 3 C’s) are all RH.

Boudreau was also the Head Coach in WAS when they designed their devastating powerplay around setting up Ovi for his one timer (or if they covered Ovi, take advantage of the resulting 4 on 3, great powerplay)

I bet ANA does the same with Yak.

I can see them starting him with Rackell as ANA runs unicorns (and is one of the favourites for The Cup, these things are not a coincidence)

ASkoreyko

That story from last night about Maroon stealing the Ana puck is pure gold.

He knew they wanted, made sure he took it, and then dismissed them when they asked for it back. His buddy Perry even skated over and asked for it and Maroon told him to get lost.

I am not really sure why Anaheim gave up on Maroon so quickly but the guy certainly seems to be a player and brings a certain je ne sais quoi to the Oilers that we have been missing for a long time. I mean Kassian is a dink, but everyone knows he is a dink. Maroon seems to also be a dink but it is not the first quality that comes to mind, combine that with enough size to not be scared of anyone and I think a player of his ilk is worth 5 Gazdics in terms of making the players around him stand tall.

Combine the above with the fact that he is signed for the remainder of McDavid’s ELC at a dirt cheap level and we have something special.

jake70

Captain’s Log:
Last night provided the best example of why the challenge on offsides has to go – it only works in one direction.

You can’t get scoring chances back that were wrongly taken away. The league wants to increase scoring and entertainment and so they introduce a challenge that slows the game down and only takes away offence. All because of one incident where a player was blatantly offside. Get rid of this bloody challenge already.

I thought of something funny…imagine if the offside did work the other way. They would need to get a still shot of the arrangement of players on the ice at that moment, players would go to those spots and on the blow of the whistle, everyone resumes. Ridiculous but funny.

hunter1909

vinotintazo:
hunter1909,

to be fair he’s been playing there for a few games now.

Fair? Fair’s got nothing to do with it.

: p

Heartening to see Lowetide hacks salivating over Yakupov’s new team(the Ducks).

frjohnk

Woodguy:
SoCaloil,

Not sure if Yak will succeed in ANA. I don’t see Getslaf or Kessler as the type of C for YAK.

Yak is a left shot, so its easier for RHC to set him up for 1 timers.

Getzlaf, Kesler and Rackell (top 3 C’s) are all RH.

Boudreau was also the Head Coach in WAS when they designed their devastating powerplay around setting up Ovi for his one timer (or if they covered Ovi, take advantage of the resulting 4 on 3, great powerplay)

I bet ANA does the same with Yak.

I can see them starting him with Rackell as ANA runs unicorns (and is one of the favourites for The Cup, these things are not a coincidence)

truth

OF17

ASkoreyko,

Agreed. Maroon has been just what the doctor ordered, and seeing Chiarelli hunt for Maroon/Kassian types at bargain discounts brings me confidence for the future.

How the hell did we get a player of Maroon’s calibre with salary retained for a 4th rounder? If a 4th turns into Maroon @ $1.5 million, that’s a screaming success, even if Maroon falls back to earth as time goes on. And that isn’t even factoring in how well Maroon’s play fits with this teams strengths and weaknesses.

It’s nice to be on the other side of the magic bean for player who’s 90+% certain to be better than the magic bean trade for once.

Geeezeus

Rondo,

I also wonder who represents (agent) Sergachev?

Gret99zky

jonrmcleod,

It may be a tad unrealistic to predict a playoff berth next season from a DFL team given the evidence of the last 10 straight seasons.

But carry on.

Woodguy

hunter1909: Fair? Fair’s got nothing to do with it.

: p

Heartening to see Lowetide hacks salivating over Yakupov’s new team(the Ducks).

You’re such an asshole.

jonrmcleod

Gret99zky,

I didn’t actually predict playoffs.

bendelson

I don’t get all the consternation about the officials last night. After the gong-show in LA, how fair would it be to AHM if the league insisted they call last night’s game straight-up? These teams are fighting for the division title, don’t you know?

jonrmcleod

Woodguy: The woman nuzzling with her dummy is very disconcerting.

You can’t call them dummies anymore.

Hall Awaits

The die was cast on Pouliot the day Chia came in. I think it has more to do with bringing in a Lucic/Okposo type then a Maroon coming in like gangbusters late in the year.

My hope is LA signs Looch and then has to cut salary. I’ve always had an affinity for Dwight King….

Bruce McCurdy

Captain’s Log:
Last night provided the best example of why the challenge on offsides has to go – it only works in one direction.

You can’t get scoring chances back that were wrongly taken away. The league wants to increase scoring and entertainment and so they introduce a challenge that slows the game down and only takes away offence. All because of one incident where a player was blatantly offside. Get rid of this bloody challenge already.

This is 100.0% on the money.

If you added up all the inches in the five disallowed goals in Oilers games this year (3 for, 2 against) the combined amount they were offside would be much less than last night’s mistake, which was the full width of the blueline plus another full width of the blueline. But as you say there are no do-overs on whistles blown in error, only on whistles NOT blown in error.

In other words, the attacking team still gets screwed by bad calls at the line, but they can no longer benefit from bad calls at the line. Offence loses either way. Typical NHL that they pay lip service to “increasing offence” while instituting measures to subtract offence. What a bunch of maroons.

frjohnk

hunter1909: Heartening to see Lowetide hacks salivating over Yakupov’s new team(the Ducks).

Somebody suggested Yak will not succeed in Anaheim, some of us feel otherwise as they have 3 talented centers and Yak would most likely benefit ( especially since they are right handed, great for using Yak properly on the PP). I have posted numerous times, that show Yak produces well with most offensive centers. Just stickin up for the kid.

You need to take a step away from the ledge.

Seriously.

Bruce McCurdy

frjohnk:
“Leon had two high-danger scoring chances but no shots according to the scoring—unusual—and seemed to have some of his sorcery passes back in his quiver”

About high danger chances, around 73% of all HDSC in the league actually become a shot on net.

Meanwhile, Eberle hit the side of the net on what I viewed as a Grade A+ chance, and gets credited with 0 HDSC. It’s baffling.

Clay

Woodguy:

I really don’t want the Oilers to trade Pouliot as he’s a value contract, but if the deal is Yak + Pou for Vantanen + Maroon (with 500k held), that’s pretty close to value I think and is a straight swap on $$$ (assuming Vatanen signs long term for $5MM or so)

I’m missing something here. I’m pretty sure the Oilers already have Maroon.

So then it’s Yak+Pou for Vatanen… Or Yak+Pou+Gernat+4th for Vatanen and Maroon.

I think that’s overpay, but we all know that’s going to be the case if the Oilers want to fix their defense properly.

Little Poteet

frjohnk,

Maybe the ledge should step away from Hunter, lots of ledges hanging around that guy

Woodguy

jonrmcleod: You can’t call them dummies anymore.

“Fabricated Canadians”?

Gordies Elbow

Good game by Griffin Reinhart, playing both sides of the ice. Really liked him with him on the right and Nurse on the left – glimpse of the future?

Little Poteet

Woodguy,

“A puppet which self-identifies as a real boy”

Ducey

Wow, only three players with a CF% below 50% vs ANA. Potatoes in LT’s living room!

I liked Yak’s game in the second and third. The Journal is reporting he got some boos in the first. That’s usually the kiss of death in these parts. Though Paul Coffey survived it.

Woodguy

Clay: I’m missing something here.I’m pretty sure the Oilers already have Maroon.

So then it’s Yak+Pou for Vatanen… Or Yak+Pou+Gernat+4th for Vatanen and Maroon.

I think that’s overpay, but we all know that’s going to be the case if the Oilers want to fix their defense properly.

We’ve seen NHL GM’s do trades in two parts before, especially around the deadline when the cap is tougher to work with than the summer.

I also think Chia might have done Murray a solid by driving out competitors for Pirri then withdrawing his offer late so Murray could pick him on the cheap.

frjohnk

Bruce McCurdy: Meanwhile, Eberle hit the side of the net on what I viewed as a Grade A+ chance, and gets credited with 0 HDSC. It’s baffling.

the shot was actually taken outside the area that is HDSC.

EBERLE was credited with a “scoring chance” which is the area known as the “arrow”. Trade marked on this site by you. 🙂

Woodguy: We’ve seen NHL GM’s do trades in two parts before, especially around the deadline when the cap is tougher to work with than the summer.

I also think Chia might have done Murray a solid by driving out competitors for Pirri then withdrawing his offer late so Murray could pick him on the cheap.

What? Have a link to support that claim?

dustrock

“I would rather see the return being something a little more immediately useful (Mark Pysyk, Damon Severson) and if not then keep him and maybe that is the guy you lose at the expansion draft. If the return isn’t there, Chiarelli would be wise to keep his powder dry. The Oilers do not have a history of doing well with dealing players who have requested trades. In a negotiation, indifference to the outcome gives one leverage.”

Well LT, it sounds like, at least for the deadline this year, that Chiarelli was indifferent to the outcome, because Yakupov and Larionov sure made it seem like a deadline deal was 100% going to happen.

Yak even says in the Russian article “something happened” and there wasn’t a deal.

The logical supposition is that Chia didn’t find a good enough deal. So that’s a good sign. I guess.

I have a feeling we’re in for one eventful offseason, and it’s going to be Lowetide: Civil War in here until the season starts and we see what Chia has done with our core.

And if it is Lowetide: Civil War, I’m with Team Cap (LT).

Ducey

Woodguy: “Fabricated Canadians”?

How about “Wood guys”? 🙂

russ99

Maroon is a solid big forward who’s the perfect kind of player for McLellan’s systems. We could use two more like him for the third line next year.

Pouliot being included in the Yak deal says to me that the brass thinks that Pouliot may not the kind of big player suited for McLellan’s systems.

I hope Fayne is a pump-and-dump. We really shouldn’t run Sekera-Fayne next year if we want the playoffs, since that means only one quality D addition. We definitely need two.

New Improved Darkness

The real story here is what to do after you tie up the bulk of your budget for a veteran 1D in Ference+Nikitin? How do you best live with the gaping foot wound until you work it off the books again?

Do you shift everything else around, tightening the belt everywhere in equal measure? Maybe not. As soon as the conversation returns to our forward crew, the operative line will be “see what you have before you dismantle it”. Think carefully, because spreading your F a little thinner hasn’t got an instant undo button once the belt-tightening ends.

There’s no such thing in the GM’s chair as transient liquidity. You can’t borrow balance. Balance isn’t a guiding star or a magic wand. Balance is the end product of one good decision after another, sustained for many seasons. The closest the GM gets to balance as an actionable good is at the draft table, also known as “drafting for need”.

Yakupov was a disaster for the balance story (we should have traded down) because he’s pretty much always been the pump and dump golden child (ask not what Yak does for your team, ask rather what his linemates do for Yakupov).

A “defense first” approach to thə rebuild is almost certainly the better balance story. But then that conflicts with the “we haven’t made the playoffs in X years” public lament, rending of garments, and billboard erection wrath. Unlike the river-pusher rebuild, a defense first rebuild sets an accurate clock (not speedy) by which fans can choose to wander off and halfway sit out several boring years at the outset.

Guess what? Fans with short attention spans get the rebuilds they deserve. No sane pocket ever financed a new arena during a rebuild so slow-and-steady (Detroit-model bullet time) that 1/3 of the fan base drifts off into a holding pattern (keeping their wallet-flexing fan power dry for some future reigny day).

Speedy rebuilds are not reliable. Too much luck involved. Too much need to achieve a critical mass of credibility on the FA market. Like cranking your engine on a cold morning. You really don’t know if the engine will catch on the first crank, or crank away until the battery goes soft.

Speedy rebuilds devolve into A) some magical combination of good luck and good management; B) recriminations and gnashing of teeth (which only adds the cumulative burden of getting back out of the ditch again).

The proper comparison for our last ten years are all the NHL franchises whose shallow-pocketed ownership base managed the pantry bare during the desperate end-game of an aging arena they could never afford to replace without finding some sugar daddy in shining armor.

What does your pipeline need to function at maximal effectiveness? Viable shelter at the NHL level.

And where does shelter come from at an affordable price tag for a team with no hope of a meaningful November? You’re sure not going to get that from outside the organization, so I guess you better hope your pipeline delivers.

This unsolvable circularity even has a nice, convenient name: around these parts it’s called “because Oilers”.

What finally breaks this gridlock? Double dipping. Clipping one cluster to salvage another.

Gret99zky

jonrmcleod:
Gret99zky,

I didn’t actually predict playoffs.

Fair.

I misinterpreted where Gloryland is.

G Money

Bruce McCurdy,

Bear in mind that the definition of SC and HDSC per war on ice is purely location based. Ebs shot as I recall was from the middle-ish of the circle, which WOI considers medium danger. That would be why it wouldn’t have registered.

WOI (as with all automated systems, including mine) cannot account for things like open nets, which is really what made Eberle’s chance a high danger chance.

As I’m sure you’re “mildly aware” LOL, the only system that will account for it is the CoH manual scoring chance assessment, which is why, as maligned as it often is (mostly because of Staples’ unfortunately poor grasp of basic statistics), I ascribe lots of value to it, and always look at that data in conjunction with the automated data.

Little Poteet

Ducey: How about “Wood guys”?

/end thread

Lloyd B.

That photo with the crooked blue line …. I can’t stop laughing. Too funny!

jonrmcleod

Gret99zky,

Glory land could be interpreted as the playoffs. But I said maybe… if Chiarelli adds two top-four D.

rickithebear

Woodguy: Boudreau was also the Head Coach in WAS when they designed their devastating powerplay around setting up Ovi for his one timer (or if they covered Ovi, take advantage of the resulting 4 on 3, great powerplay)

1. OVI hits the net.
2. He targets open holes on goalies.

Yak does not have the controlled targeting to be a high % even shooter
or
an effective PP shooter

rickithebear

G Money: WOI (as with all automated systems, including mine) cannot account for things like open nets, which is really what made Eberle’s chance a high danger chance

Open (net/Hole) shots?

You don’t say!

Successful zone entry/Pocession
corsi/ Suc Zone Entry
Fenwick/corsi
Shots/Fenwick
Open hole shots/shots.
Broken into the 3 locational groups.

You be getting closer!

But you start to track open hole shots versus shots.

All other data is squewed by the large affect of 1. quality of Shooter
and
2. True quality of D.
open hole shots = ((Corsi – Blocks) – Misses) – Closed hole shots.

Expressed in there ability to
1. block the shot rates higher than the shooter Avg
2. force miss rates higher than the shooters avg.
3. Force closed shot rates higher than the shooters avg.
4. Force high danger chance to a higher distance from the net.

Woodguy

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: What?Have a link to support that claim?

I’m not at my PC, but will dig up later.

Edit:

Which claim, the Pirri part or 2 part trade part?