IT’S A HARD WAY TO FIND OUT THAT TROUBLE IS REAL

by Lowetide

I believe it is reasonable to bet on the Edmonton Oilers choosing a forward in the 2016 NHL draft. The top three in this year’s selection appears to be written in stone (Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi) and Matthew Tkachuk is going to be difficult to overlook at No. 4.

tkachuk capture1

  • Boxcars: 57gp, 30-77-107
  • Even-Strength: 57gp, 20-43-63
  • Power Play: 57gp, 9-33-42
  • Penalty Kill: 57gp, 1-1-2
  • Shots on Goal: 191

Those are exceptional numbers, as stand alone numbers they qualify as astounding. His NHLE (82, 14-35-49) totals are top drawer and the only real concern I have about him is the strength of his teammates. He is getting a lot of his points at evens, I regard that as a good sign:

  1. Mitch Marner 57, 21-43-64
  2. Matt Tkachuk 57, 20-43-63
  3. Christian Dvorak 59, 27-32-59

He is 6.01, 195 and the scouting reports on Tkachuk should give any NHL team a good feeling about his possible future. He is 4, 6-1-7 in the playoffs so far. This is an outstanding prospect. He isn’t Billy Guerin, but I think we can safely use the word rugged with this player.

  • Dan Marr, Central Scouting: “Matthew is unique in that he brings a skilled and physical package combination to game situations in which he consistently contributes and impacts.”  Source

https://twitter.com/307x/status/693666029722058752

Negatives? He is not a fast train. He is more playmaker than scorer and that may impact Edmonton’s decision. I believe he is a Peter Chiarelli-style player based on scouting reports I have read—like this one that talks about his eventual size/speed/skill combination:

  • Todd Warriner, Sportsnet: “Like his attitude and work ethic to go along with excellent one ice awareness and small space skills. Still growing, getting stronger. As good as anyone below hash marks offensively, where the NHL game is played.”  Source

mcdavid capture 1

ARE THEY BETTER AT CENTER?

When Peter Chiarelli took over the Oilers, the center depth chart (pro division) looked like this:

  1. C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  2. C Anton Lander
  3. C Boyd Gordon
  4. C Leon Draisaitl
  5. C Bogdan Yakimov
  6. C Jujhar Khaira
  7. C Travis Ewanyk
  8. C Kellen Lain (RFA)
  9. C Kyle Platzer (newly signed)

Derek Roy was UFA, they had to decide on guys like Marco Roy but this was the group Chiarelli saw on the whiteboard, day one. What did Chiarelli do? Of the eight men above where a decision was required (remember, Platzer had signed and was turning pro), Chiarelli flushed three men (Gordon, Ewanyk, Lain) and he took the other five (plus Platzer) to training camp. Between April and September, Chiarelli would add the following centers:

  1. Connor McDavid
  2. Mark Letestu

No extra credit for drafting McDavid, but he was added under Chiarelli’s watch. Letestu was supposed to be a 4C who could slide up but he ended up being a 3C who didn’t slide down.

OILERS CENTERS OVER SEASON1

When we look at these numbers, it is important to remember that these five men (will) represent more than the total number of center ‘at-bats’ for the year. If we estimate (without OT) a center playing every minute of every game, we get 82×60=4,920 minutes. By my count, they have played in 18 OT games, so I will estimate 5,000 center minutes. These five men have played 5,019 minutes (with three games to go) and delivered 55 goals and 100 assists. Here are my estimates and the actual numbers for each player:

  • Connor McDavid actual 42GP, 15-30-45 1.07 points-per-game
  • Connor McDavid RE 70GP, 23-39-62 0.886 points-per-game

The young man actually outperformed my estimate and has a shot at 50 points in 45 games—an outstanding total in a league that will probably have fewer than three 1/1 players this year. Not a lot to be critical about here, the organization got him for half a season courtesy a giant slice of crappy luck—bulletin, it is a theme we will repeat as we get into the RE.

  • Leon Draisaitl actual 69GP, 18-32-50 0.725 points-per-game
  • Leon Draisaitl RE 41GP, 8-12-20 0.487 points-per-game

I don’t think anyone anticipated this season from the big man, he was a revelation for much of the year. It is too bad that he faded as the season wore on, that run from callup through end December (29, 8-22-30) was outstanding.

  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins actual 52GP, 11-22-33 0.634 points-per-game
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins RE 82GP, 22-41-63 0.768 points-per-game

He is a fantastic power-play pivot, so the overall numbers are better because of it. The Nuge has had a tough time since that illness, he was 31, 8-15-23 through mid-December (.742). He scores on 11.1 percent of his shots (career), I think he should shoot more.

  • Mark Letestu Actual 79GP, 10-14-24 0.304
  • Mark Letestu RE 71GP, 10-12-22 0.310

I think the RE pegged him right, but the season has been disappointing. About 50 percent of his offense came on the power play—that is far more than his career average before this year (27.8 percent). I think 3.79/60 at 5×4 is easily the strongest number he posted this year.

  • Anton Lander Actual 60GP, 1-2-3 0.050
  • Anton Lander RE 75GP, 12-15-27 0.360

Anton is having the ‘third-string catcher’ season usually reserved for the Marc Sullivan’s (and he had help from Haywood). My goodness that is a large miss in terms of estimate.

  • Centers actual: 302GP, 55-100-156 0.517
  • Centers RE: 339GP, 75-119-194 0.572

Incredibly, most of the miss (I am out by 8 goals if you compare apples to apples in GP) is Anton Lander. He scored a hat trick in one of the pre-season games I attended, thought he would have a big year. Question: Did Peter Chiarelli set up the center position for success? I think he did. When we look at the other positions the answer won’t be as rosy, but for me the issues we have seen during the year at center have (mostly) to do with injury and men playing too high on the roster.

https://twitter.com/Sun_Tychkowski/status/714509294473912320

The more I think about Chiarelli’s summer, the more I think he will deal from strength to address weakness—and that means leaving Taylor Hall on the roster. As I see it, Edmonton does have three areas of strength:

  • Left-handed defensemen (Sekera, Klefbom, Davidson, Nurse, Reinhart, Musil)
  • Another lottery selection (and that carries another big bonus contract)
  • Young centers (McDavid, Nuge, Draisaitl)

All have potentially extreme value (if Chiarelli goes to market with Darnell Nurse, the No. 2 overall and Leon Draisaitl he is going to come home with an insane defenseman) but this remains a building team—trading off assets in their early 20s is unwise. What can PC do? Focus on Jason Demers, perhaps trade down from No. 1 to No. 2 overall (acquiring substantial assets), build up that farm system (because it is not very good right now). If a big deal is there, pull the trigger but I say no to a one-for-three and suspect that is what is going to be out there this summer.

Lots of speculation over this, we chatted briefly about it yesterday. I would beware of small sample sizes in regard to Patrick Maroon, and we would do well to remember that BP has been an effective plug-and-play and possession player up and down the batting order. Can the Oilers get Sami Vatanen for him? Giddyup. Failing that, I keep him. A small item we might consider: If Pouliot gets traded, I would be even more convinced Chiarelli would chase Milan Lucic.

https://twitter.com/NHLbyMatty/status/703685152627535873

Matty putting things together over at the EJ, interesting bit of information. Jake Marchment was also rumored to be in that deal, so there are two names to keep in mind. THW’s Dustin Nelson has a nice story here that contains some information about Prokhorkin and others.

Note on college signings: If you are disappointed in the lack of signings for Edmonton (so far only Colton Waltz on a tryout for Bakersfield), suspect the club has targeted names like Troy Stecher and Alex Lyon—those are quality names. Patience is a virtue.

millerscrossing

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A terrific show this morning, please tune in at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Cullen, TSN. We will discuss the crazy race for No. 30 overall—I don’t think Edmonton finishes there.
  • Guy Flaming, Pipeline Show. Oil Kings had a tough night, refs appeared to be a factor, but still lead the series.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Keith suspension, major injuries around the league and some possible playoff matchups.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. Talk soon!

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Gret99zky

Bar_Qu: We are all suffering here right now. The Oilers season has hurt, there is a nasty, nasty flu going around and while it is nice enough to golf, the courses aren’t open yet (Sundre opens April 1st!).

Humor has no place

(note the winky face! note it!)

All this and (barring an absolute miracle trade) the Oilers will be slightly better than this year’s team but nowhere near the playoffs again next season. 11 in a row. 11.

But we get to watch another first round pick make the top 6.

Dustylegnd

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

its all good, clearly I would fit in with other mistake prone Oiler’s employees like Mactavish and Howsen

PunjabiOil

Dubois is number 3 on my list

Late June birthday. Ability to put the puck in the net (42 in 62).

His 99 points are 20 higher than next teammate. Already pushing the river.

Based on the boxcars he is beasting it. Of course we need more information such as even strength toi, pp toi, etc. And pre-draft numbers often not predictive of NHL production.

See Couturier, Sean.

See Johannson, Ryan

Bar_Qu

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: I thought I was clearly joking. I apologize if the wink face didn’t make that clear. Have we fully gone to no friendly ribbing at all here now? If so I will fall in line.

We are all suffering here right now. The Oilers season has hurt, there is a nasty, nasty flu going around and while it is nice enough to golf, the courses aren’t open yet (Sundre opens April 1st!).

Humor has no place 😉

(note the winky face! note it!)

ashley

speeds: How sure should we be that Chiarelli views the cluster the same way as many might have a year ago?There’s been some talk that the only “untradeables” are CMD and LD, both of which suggest a different cluster than Hall/Eberle/RNH/Yakupov.

Maybe he thinks retaining a top 5 pick this year is more important than retaining an extra player from the prior group?

A good point. If Chia centers a new cluster at CMD, then keep the pick and trade the oldest of the previous cluster, Hall. Either way we will get back an NHL player of value that can help us now and grow with the appropriate cluster.

The difficulty with this new-CMD-cluster approach is we are likely then still in building mode for another year, but perhaps could reap more prolonged dividends than centering on the Hall cluster which involves trading the 2016 first round pick, and trying to make the playoffs next year.

sliderule:
NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

There is no need for that he made some very good points.

I thought I was clearly joking. I apologize if the wink face didn’t make that clear. Have we fully gone to no friendly ribbing at all here now? If so I will fall in line.

Ducey

Dustylegnd: Ahh yes Pronger,traded10 years ago, involving the perfect storm of duress and managerial incompetence, the league has duly noted the outcome of that trade.
The Ducks also let Pronger move along and immediately deteriorated into a bottom tier team as well, however the Ducks quickly restocked via savvy drafting of D men in the 1st round ….what a novel idea.
Chia traded away Johnny Bpychuck how has that worked out for the Bruins??
Stan Bowman Traded away Leddy….worked great for the Islanders not so much for the Hawks.
Right handed shooting Suds on D are the preverbal Unicorn of the NHL, there is no price too high

Not sure if you know what your point is.

Boychuk went for 2 seconds and a conditional 3rd (it didn’t vest).
Leddy and a backup goaler cost Vile Pokka, TJ Brennan and Anders Nilsson

I would think based on those underwhelming returns that Snow felt a lot of prices were “too high” and waited until he could take advantage of some Cap troubles.

And didn’t the Hawks win the Cup after trading Leddy?

As much as fans think the Oilers should overpay for a RH Dman, Chia so far as Oilers GM has shown he will not overpay – ask Sather when everyone in the world knew the Oilers needed Talbot.

In fact, I wouldn’t put it past Chia to drop the Vatanan rumour just to ratchet down the price on Hamonic.

sliderule

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

There is no need for that he made some very good points.

JD_Wry

Dustylegnd: Stan Bowman Traded away Leddy….worked great for the Islanders not so much for the Hawks.

They traded Leddy away just before the 2014/15 regular season started, then went on to win the Cup.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/player-bio/nick-leddy/bio

sliderule

The idea that picking a forward over a defenceman is going to guarantee you a player does not seem to apply to players picked in top five.
Since 2008 there have been 13 defenceman picked in the top five and every one is playing in the NHL this year.The weakest is Reinhart but give him credit he is able to play.
Of the forwards picked Yakupov and Drouin would have to be considered as picked to high.Then we have Marner Strome and Dal Colle who haven’t played a game.
In the draft there are two high rated D that have scored about the same as Doughty and Pietrangelo and a Finn who scored at just under that level and starred at wjc.
On this site I get the feeling that there is desperation to trade almost anyone but Connor for a defenceman like Hamonic (who I like) but probably would have to carry skates for at least half of the 13.
Green built the oil kings from the back end so I am somewhat confident that he will do the right thing and draft one of the three D.

Dustylegnd:
Right handed shooting Suds on D are the preverbal Unicorn of the NHL, there is no price too high

Didn’t know soap had a handedness 😉
Also, didn’t you hear they found a real unicorn fossil in Siberia this week?

Going to check myself out for a while for being a dink. Blame it on the jetlag.

Dustylegnd

Professor Q: Pronger?

Ahh yes Pronger,traded10 years ago, involving the perfect storm of duress and managerial incompetence, the league has duly noted the outcome of that trade.
The Ducks also let Pronger move along and immediately deteriorated into a bottom tier team as well, however the Ducks quickly restocked via savvy drafting of D men in the 1st round ….what a novel idea.
Chia traded away Johnny Bpychuck how has that worked out for the Bruins??
Stan Bowman Traded away Leddy….worked great for the Islanders not so much for the Hawks.
Right handed shooting Studs on D are the preverbal Unicorn of the NHL, there is no price too high

Woodguy

Hamonic isn’t “a stud #1” by any measure.

Competent 1st pairing D is a better desription.

Comes out very close to Petry and Sekera in my Dman table thing.

Sekera had a bit of 2nd pairing time in LA and Petry had this entire year of 2nd pairing in MTL which usually has the effect of boosting the ranking due to lesser comp (although the lin between 1st and 2nd comp is pretty thin at times, much thinner than the difference between 2nd and 3rd)

He’s not Steven’s, and he’s not in the same universe as Pronger.

He did ask for a trade and that’s going to lessen his value.

I am back in North America. Although LAX might as well be Baghdad. Actually that might be an insult to Baghdad. Worst airport ever in my books, and I’ve been to them in 44 countries.

Smashed baggage, ridiculous terminal transfer, construction everywhere, unreliable wifi, no lounge and $20 for two pieces of bad fried chicken. Yeesh. I am missing Japan already.

I would avoid Tkachuk at 4. Sure he might pan out, but wary of the Marner and Dvorak effect. We had Gagner before in a similar situation.

Puljujarvi has a projectable frame and skillset that shows tons of promise beyond just his boxcars and slightly shy 5v5 scoring. I think he can be a force to handle, not just about pure scoring ability for me.

I’d be happy with either Finn.

Ricki, I see your 7-3-1 but what if one of the 3 has to be Ference?

JD_Wry

dustrock: What’s the closest equivalent, a young Scott Stevens being traded?

If you mean poor return on a dominant player traded away, there is one other trade that comes to mind…

dustrock

Professor Q: Pronger?

Everyone throws the Pronger trade in there, but I haven’t seen it replicated.

What’s the closest equivalent, a young Scott Stevens being traded?

Drew

Professor Q: Pronger?

winner

Professor Q

Dustylegnd:
oilerman1000,

I know the Islanders don’t want Reinhart back after fleecing Chia this past June
I know teams DO NOT trade true #1 D for multiple blemished players in return
I know free agent stud D have 0 motivation to sign at a “reasonable price” with Edmonton
I believe if Chia wants a difference maker on D the team trading said Defensive difference maker will decide which Oiler comes the other way.Chia will only be able to make Hall and McDavid untouchable, otherwise no deal for a stud Dgets done.

Pronger?

Dustylegnd

oilerman1000,

I know the Islanders don’t want Reinhart back after fleecing Chia this past June
I know teams DO NOT trade true #1 D for multiple blemished players in return
I know free agent stud D have 0 motivation to sign at a “reasonable price” with Edmonton
I believe if Chia wants a difference maker on D the team trading said Defensive difference maker will decide which Oiler comes the other way.
Chia will only be able to make Hall and McDavid untouchable, otherwise no deal for a stud D gets done.

Snowman

speeds: How sure should we be that Chiarelli views the cluster the same way as many might have a year ago?There’s been some talk that the only “untradeables” are CMD and LD, both of which suggest a different cluster than Hall/Eberle/RNH/Yakupov.

Maybe he thinks retaining a top 5 pick this year is more important than retaining an extra player from the prior group?

I think that it is almost certain that he views the cluster differently. However, I imagine he has a similar opinion on the value of McDavid being on his ELC.

He might be looking at the puzzle from a different point of view (probably not a bad thing) but he most certainly sees the ultimate goal the same. Win now or have burned a marvelous opportunity with one of the best players on Earth playing on the cheap.

Either way I think it results in similar action. Keep the “vets” you think can help (whether that’s any combination of or none of RNH, Hall and Eberle remains to be seen). Spend the assets you think are expendable and can get you what you need. Do it all in a hurry before McDavid gets paid.

If he prioritizes assets based on control and potential, which it appears to me he does to some degree at least, that will help extend the window of winning. Which I think points to keeping Nuge and ideally using Eberle but also Hall, if needed, as the trade bait if needed.

I think this perspective of length of team control and potential ceiling makes it more likely that the pick is kept.

Ducey

Loyal2theoil:
Link provided for me from Zach Laing (Loweded),

http://www.sctimes.com/story/sports/college/hockey/husky-hockey/2016/03/31/scsus-benik-signs-deal-play-bakersfield-ahl/82455992/

Decent pickup

Yeah. A former BCHL player. Can’t really find much on him.

Here is an old article that was pretty high on him.http://www.uscho.com/2013/10/04/commentary-heres-who-im-watching-as-the-college-hockey-season-begins/

Looks to be another Andrew Miller.

speeds

ashley:
With the clock running on the cluster, this would be an astute move by Chia.We can’t wait another year or two for these newly drafted players to develop and learn the game.We need help today, and 18yo rookies rarely help that much for the first couple of years unless they are CMD.

How sure should we be that Chiarelli views the cluster the same way as many might have a year ago? There’s been some talk that the only “untradeables” are CMD and LD, both of which suggest a different cluster than Hall/Eberle/RNH/Yakupov.

Maybe he thinks retaining a top 5 pick this year is more important than retaining an extra player from the prior group?

dustrock

Bruce McCurdy,

Nice one!

Loyal2theoil
AZOIL

oilerman1000:
Gentleman,

If I were a GM for a day here’s what I would do.

First of all both Yak and Ebs have to go.Only room for people that want to play a 200’ game and be as passionate along the boards getting pucks out as they are in the offensive zone.Eberle while playing absolutely lights out in the last 5 games just hasn’t shown it.He has to go- the message has to be they’ll stop at nothing to get players that will play the right way and unfortunately moving Eberle (who I believe is a valuable player) will finally send that message.I would absolutely move him along with Yak.

To me Jason Demers is close toVatanen offensively and is much better defensively.He’s 27, plays 22-28 minutes a game, right shot and plays on both special teams.What if we could sign in him free agency?We’d then have Ebs, Yak and Pou to use as trade chips.Don’t worry I’m going there next.Let’s assume we sign him to a reasonable contract.5 years @ 4-5M/year.

NYI are without a proper 1st line RW to play with Tavares next year with Okposko almost sure to go.I just looked at their roster and they have Frans Nielson as a UFA too, that’s two of their top 3 scores.Since NYI are losing so much of their top 6, could they be interested in something other than Eberle?I think so- especially since Hamonic wants out.Let’s assume we can get it done and we do it with say Pouliot, Yak & Reinheart (or one of our young LHD) for Hamonic

Now we still have Eberle and what if he was part of a bigger trade?What if it was Eberle, 2017 1st , Davidson & Yakimov for a true 1A or at least a 1B Dman?If that doesn’t get it done change Davidson for Nurse.Would that get you one of sayWeber or Pieterangelo?Both NASH & St.Louisneed scoring and could be excited about getting Davidson/Nurse as a good fill in for whose leaving.

Then let’s assume we sign Backes & Perron for the 3rd line.

Draft Laine or Dubois (depending on where we pick)

The roster would look like this:

Hall – RNH – Drai
Maroon – McD – Laine
Kassian – Backes – Perron
Hendricks – Letestu – Pakarinen

Klefbom – Weber/Pieterangelo
Sekera – Hamonic
Nurse – Demers
Talbot

That my friends is a Stanley Cup winning roster.What do you think?

Why does everyone keep saying it is going to take Eberle plus plus or even Eberle for that matter to get
Hamonic?

In the last ten years when a stud type player requests a trade from his team, the team trading him gets peanuts every time no? We, of all people should know? Pronger?

Show me any team that got equal value or a wash in talent like everyone is suggesting we offer up? Honestly I can’t think of any? What was the Heatley trade?

Thor762

G Money,

You are such a nerd.

Glad you’re on our side. Keep it up.

Bruce McCurdy

dustrock: We have been dead ******** last by a long shot in points from D for the last several years.

Funny you should mention that, I spent all morning working on it.

Sekera’s 30 points rank 26th among top-scoring defenders on NHL teams. The #’s 2, 3, and 4 scorers rank 30th, 30th, & 29th respectively. Which isn’t too surprising when you realize none of them has more than a dozen points.

As a team Oilers’ 99 defence points are tied with New Jersey for DFL. Like every other NHL teams, the Devils have played fewer games.

Primetime

Since nobody ever trades out of the 1 hole though I wouldn’t count on it this year. Not saying I would be opposed to it just that it never happens.

I think both Tampa (1999) and Florida (2002) traded out of the #1 spot, …rare but it does happen…could be more, just don’t recall…

G Money

Rondo:
Re:Tkachuk vs. Pierre-luc Dubois

I’m intrigued with Corey Pronman’s views of late birthdays.Dubois is around 200 days younger than Tkachuk meaning he has played 1less season. Dubois is bigger and heavier than Tkachuk. Dubois plays all forward positions and is a goal scorer.

If Oilers end up with the # 3 pick it will be interestingwho they pick could be a Dman.

After the Oilers won the lottery last year, I did a couple of number crunching projects on the draft and published them at NerdAlert.

The first is that I built an NHLE exclusively for elite forwards drafted out of the CHL. Unsurprisingly, it projected McDavid much higher than the standard NHLE – something like 0.92 ppg as I recall.

The second, mostly for fun, is I used a machine learning algorithm called a Support Vector Machine (SVM) to do the same sort of projection.

The SVM is a little different in that it doesn’t produce a forecast (though it can). Rather, it classifies new data based on its similarity to the training data.

I built two SVMs, one that used only goals and assists in draft-1, and one that used goals, assists, and age.

Using only G/A, the SVM pulled as its closest match to McDavid: Patrick Kane

Using G/A/age, the SVM pulled as its closest match to McDavid: Sidney Crosby

It was quite an interesting article, you guys should read it! 🙂

LoDog

There were reports that it was the Oilers that balked on the trade due to not being able to get Prokhorkin to confirm he would come over next year. That Matty tweet is the only one saying that it was the Kings that shut it down that I have seen.

rickithebear

Stelio Kontos:
dustrock,

We have 6 fwds who are top 90 in ppg and are near bottom of the league in goals. That isn’t mainly on the D.

Shooting %!
procession wasted.

linear targeters of net
with Good Box slot drive
High Shooting %

remember that group of Forwards that get 23G 60p each year.
that is 14G 35p in 48 gm season.
the 4 seasons from 11-12 to 14-15
79 players have achieved that at least 1

4/4 seasons
Eberle
Kane
Kessel
Ovechkin
Pacioretty
Tavares

3/4 seasons
Benn
Giroux
Malkin
Pavelski
Seguin
Couture
Crosby concussion in 11-12
kunitz
Neal
Parise
Perry
pomminville
Stamkos
Toews
Wheeler

2/4 seasons
Getzlaf
Hartnell
Hossa
Iginla
johanssen
kopitar
Marleau
Sharp
Spezza
Steen
Vanek
Vrbata
Datsyuk
Duschene
Elias
Filppula
Gaborik
Hall 3/4 last 4 seasons12-13 to 15-16
Jagr
R. Nash
Voracek

noted 1/4 seasons
Bergeron
Carter
Ericksson
Gaudreau will be 2/2 in his career
Forsberg
Krecji
Kucherov will be 2/2 in his career
Landeskog
little
Lucic
Mckinnon 1/3 in career
Monahan 2/2last 2 seasons
Okposo
Simmonds
Statsny
Stone will be 2/2 in his career
Tarasenko will be 2/3 in his career
JVR

Teams need consistent Goal scoring Depth.
Eberle 25g/66gm .379 GPG 2.39 SH/gm
Mcdavid 15G/42gm .357 GPG 2.33 SH/gm
Hall 25g/79gm .316 GPG 3.51Sh/gm
Draisatl .261 GPG 1.82 SH/gm
Pouliot .254 GPG 2.00 SH/gm
RNH 11G/52gm .212 GPG 1.98 SH/gm
Maroon 5g/13gm .385 GPG 2.23 SH/gm

Need to see pouliot and Drai in the 2.3 SH/gm range
Hall SH volume with poorer targeting is less pocession efficient.

Yakupov 7G/57gm .123 GPG 2.18 Sh/gm
He is getting Volume. but Really poor shooting % is the Issue.

You need 4D that play Box protection.
if you are less than

2 years ago I was pushing point Production Forwards depth.
I allways look at Conf finalist team make-up.
I posted lists of depth by points.

After the season my approach changed.
With G scoring being a more efficient way of measuring critical forward depth.
I have pushed LAttack the net and Shooting %.

You still need 3+ D in the 10.5 HSCA/60 range to be Competive
if the are in front of a strong MED; HIGH Shot save % goalie.

the critical difference is in the third line Goal Differential.

Hall-Drai-XXX
Maroon – Mcdaivid-Eberle

If our 3rd line starts with:
Pouliot – RNH – XXX

Klefbom (1st) 10.12 – XXX
Davidson (2nd/3rd) 9.86 – XXX

Sekera (2nd) 7.80 – Fayne (2nd) 9.26
Playing a softer comp

Talbot.

PC talks about seeing his team for 20gm.

He has not yet!

Revolved

A lottery pick is nothing to cheer for after 10 years. However, I would call this year a turn North. I’m sure this has been stated here Before, but I’ll repeat for anyone still following this Death march.

It’s convenient that WOI goes back exactly to the year we last made the playoffs. Here’s some 5×5 Oiler’s team stats from the last 10 years ranked from worst to best (funny 05-06 is Always the best…)

Season : Corsi%
13-14 : 44.3
12-13 : 44.6
09-10 : 44.9
07-08 : 46.4
10-11 : 46.4
11-12 : 47.3
08-09 : 47.6
06-07 : 47.8
14-15 : 48.1
15-16 : 49.0
05-06 : 51.5

Season : Shots%
13-14 : 44.6
12-13 : 45.1
10-11 : 45.9
09-10 : 46.2
07-08 : 46.7
08-09 : 46.8
11-12 : 47.2
14-15 : 47.9
06-07 : 48.0
15-16 : 48.4
05-06 : 52.7

Season : HDSCF%
09-10 : 43.4
12-13 : 43.8
14-15 : 44.5
10-11 : 45.6
13-14 : 46.4
06-07 : 46.5
11-12 : 46.9
15-16 : 47.3
08-09 : 47.7
07-08 : 47.9
05-06 : 57.1

I Think the HDSCF% best illustrates where we are and how far we have to go, but also shows that we have at least returned to pre-tank levels of play. Now, fix the D!

Snowman

ashley,

I agree completely. I stated that a long time ago. I’d be totally open to moving the pick no matter where it is. Young talented forward? We’ve got em.

Put it on the table and go whale hunting on D.

That’s what I would do.

Cassandra

Dubois is really underrated. His numbers are excellent + he is young for his draft class. That’s the perfect combination.

He has similar numbers and style to Anthony Mantha (big, scores goals, perhaps skating questions; fewer goals but more points) except that Mantha was old for his draft class while Dubois is young.

Hard to compare him to the Europeans but he’s way ahead of Tkachuk (older, fewer goals, assists buoyed by better team).

ashley

Snowman:
I thinkI would trade down from 1st down to 3rd. Don’t think I’d trade down out of that top 3 though. (Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi).

Since nobody ever trades out of the 1 hole though I wouldn’t count on it this year. Not saying I would be opposed to it just that it never happens.

The 4-10 spots seem pretty contested to me. Higher risk of whiffing on a pick in that range. Lots of guys with lots of good things and a question mark or two.

This is the perfect draft to trade out of the top 3 for immediate help. If you and I and all the bloggers (in their basements in their underwear) know that the talent drops after the 3 spot, then we can be certain that all the NHL GM’s are aware. This enhances the value of a top 3 pick considerably, and could be used to help balance this roster for the start of the ’16-’17 season.

With the clock running on the cluster, this would be an astute move by Chia. We can’t wait another year or two for these newly drafted players to develop and learn the game. We need help today, and 18yo rookies rarely help that much for the first couple of years unless they are CMD.

There is no need to be clever on the draft floor. We should just acknowledge the value of the pick and trade it for something good. An at-the-draft trade is best when everyone is salivating over the next Gretzky. It takes a stone heart and ice in the veins to make that call with the next phenom at your fingertips and the fan base vibrating with excitement at the circus, but that is the time to make it happen.

Of course, we will have to call on Lady Luck once more to grant us a top 3 pick. Outside of the top 3, there may not be much interest in a trade of substance for our pick.

dustrock

Stelio Kontos:
dustrock,

We have 6 fwds who are top 90 in ppg and are near bottom of the league in goals. That isn’t mainly on the D.

Never claimed it was mainly on the D. My supposition, and I’m no stats guy, is simply that 2 top 2 D men will make the bottom 6 forwards look better just by trickle down effect.

I think teams like the Hawks and Kings make their grunts look better than they are because of the overall quality of the roster and that comes from the D.

We have been dead ******** last by a long shot in points from D for the last several years.

Woodguy
SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Klam,

I’m 100% with you here. The Flames peaked last year and it was a mirage. They have a lot of holes that can be exploited. Fuck the Canucks, seriously fuck those guys, more than any team in any division I hope there is a serious ass-kicking in store for those two games.

Go Oilers Go!

Ducey

oilerman1000:

That my friends is a Stanley Cup winning roster.What do you think?

Your team likely wouldn’t fit under the Cap.

The Oilers are at $62.8 M next year not counting Ference. You have traded about 14. 8 M away but brought in 26 M (assuming Backes and Perron sign for what they are making now and Weber is the guy). That would put the Oilers at $74 M without Ference and without what must be some bigger bonuses for Leon, McD and Nurse. I don’t know how to figure those out but it must be $3 M anyway.

And the Oilers should never trade their first unless they are favourites to win the Cup. The 2017 1st rounder is almost guaranteed to be in the top 15 and quite possibly another lottery pick. Can you imagine going thru this shit show of injuries, bad officiating, bad luck and incompetence for another year and then having no picks in the first two rounds (they have to give their 2nd to BOS) next year? Ugh.

I don’t think Pou will get it done for Hamonic anyway. It likely will require Ebs, and I don’t think I would do that.

Klam

Woodguy,

I said it at the beginning of the year. I’ll say it again now. The Oilers need to beat the Canucks and fLames and show some progress turning north.

So I really want them to go 3-0-0 in the last 3.

Prove that they are better than the Nucks and fLames, and than deal with the hand that is dealt them at the draft.

These are the games that Coach should be saying remember that reset? Theses are our must win games. Give it your all, prove you are the better team. Show your teammates your will and enforce that will on these two teams. Prove that next year we will dominate them and make the playoffs. That starts right now!

Also wonder if Scrivens is bad mouthing the Habs for putting him on waivers.

rickithebear

trending shows that even or disadavtgae play is translateable.

Marner:
Draft +1
Age NHLE 46.4% of CHL production
57GM 39G 77A 116P
22 EVG 43 EVA 65 EVP
13 PPG 33 PPA 46 PPP
4 SHG 1 SHA 5 SHP

26G 44A 70P
70/57 = 1.228 X .464 = .570 X 82 = 47 EV & SHP
AGE NHLE 18G 29A 47 P

DOMI:
Draft +1
Age NHLE .446
61gm 34g 59A 93p
20 EVG 26 EVA 46 EVP
11 PPG 30 PPA 41 PPP
3 SHG 3 SHA 6 SHP

23G 29A 52P
52/61 = .852 X .446 = .380 X 82 = 31 EVP & SHP
Age NHLE 14G 17A
He was 15G & 17A this year.

Horvat:
Draft +1
Age HLE 45.5%
54gm 30G 44A 74P
20 EVG 24 EVA 44 EVP
9 PPG 19 PPA 28 PPP
1 SHG 1 SHA 2 SHP

21G 25A 46P
46/54 = .852 X .455 = .3875 X 82 = 32P
Age NHLE 15G 17A
this year 76gm 9 EVG 13 EVA

Gayfish

dustrock,

We have 6 fwds who are top 90 in ppg and are near bottom of the league in goals. That isn’t mainly on the D.

oilerman1000

Gentleman,

If I were a GM for a day here’s what I would do.

First of all both Yak and Ebs have to go. Only room for people that want to play a 200’ game and be as passionate along the boards getting pucks out as they are in the offensive zone. Eberle while playing absolutely lights out in the last 5 games just hasn’t shown it. He has to go- the message has to be they’ll stop at nothing to get players that will play the right way and unfortunately moving Eberle (who I believe is a valuable player) will finally send that message. I would absolutely move him along with Yak.

To me Jason Demers is close to Vatanen offensively and is much better defensively. He’s 27, plays 22-28 minutes a game, right shot and plays on both special teams. What if we could sign in him free agency? We’d then have Ebs, Yak and Pou to use as trade chips. Don’t worry I’m going there next. Let’s assume we sign him to a reasonable contract. 5 years @ 4-5M/year.

NYI are without a proper 1st line RW to play with Tavares next year with Okposko almost sure to go. I just looked at their roster and they have Frans Nielson as a UFA too, that’s two of their top 3 scores. Since NYI are losing so much of their top 6, could they be interested in something other than Eberle? I think so- especially since Hamonic wants out. Let’s assume we can get it done and we do it with say Pouliot, Yak & Reinheart (or one of our young LHD) for Hamonic

Now we still have Eberle and what if he was part of a bigger trade? What if it was Eberle, 2017 1st , Davidson & Yakimov for a true 1A or at least a 1B Dman? If that doesn’t get it done change Davidson for Nurse. Would that get you one of say Weber or Pieterangelo? Both NASH & St.Louis need scoring and could be excited about getting Davidson/Nurse as a good fill in for whose leaving.

Then let’s assume we sign Backes & Perron for the 3rd line.

Draft Laine or Dubois (depending on where we pick)

The roster would look like this:

Hall – RNH – Drai
Maroon – McD – Laine
Kassian – Backes – Perron
Hendricks – Letestu – Pakarinen

Klefbom – Weber/Pieterangelo
Sekera – Hamonic
Nurse – Demers
Talbot

That my friends is a Stanley Cup winning roster. What do you think?

dustrock

Stelio Kontos:

Big things I see with the forwards is second line RW, and the glut of 4th liners who are incapable of anything.

I do wonder with the 4th liners if the quality of D has any bearing on 4th line performance – a guy like say Lander is going to look a lot better getting even a couple of minutes per game with Duncan Keith than with Lord Clendenning.

dustrock

I know people don’t like taking d-men in the first round, but man I look at Chychrun and think this guy could be Pietrangelo. Also don’t see why he’s “falling”, just think he’s being picked apart like Seth Jones was.

There is the risk of picking d-men early, but conversely they are becoming more and more important. I’m torn on this one if it came down to Dubois vs. Chychrun.

Gayfish

Hall CMD Eberle
Great- amazing

Pouliot RNH Radulov/Hayes/Boedker
Need to upgrade RW. Radulov is probably best available but baggage.

Maroon Drai Yakupov/Laine
Should be good enough to compete. Yak won’t bring back much. Might as well bring him back.

Martin Lewis Hendricks
Theres too many tweeners and bedshitters here currently. Don’t know how you make them disappear.

Kassian
Not sure he has done enough to be full time, but he has shown he is worth hanging on to.

Big things I see with the forwards is second line RW, and the glut of 4th liners who are incapable of anything.

Pajamah

Eastern Oil:
Pajamah,

It’s just Moroz, like sheep.

“Moroz is matriculating down in the AHL”

and

“Man, the Oilers picked a whole bunch of Moroz in the second round of the draft these past years”

Can I be used as an adjective?

As in;

The Oiler management prior to 2014 sure were a bunch of Moroz.

Eastern Oil

From a purely “watch the game” and “saw him good” point of view, I live just outside of London and know a lot of guys with seasons tickets. I asked a few of them about other players zooming Tkachuk but they all said he stood on his own quite well.

A few mentioned how he plays like his dad too.

Again, purely unscientific but it’s something.

I like Dubois or one of the Dmen myself but I guess it partly comes down to any trades prior to the pick.

Eastern Oil

Pajamah,

It’s just Moroz, like sheep.

“Moroz is matriculating down in the AHL”

and

“Man, the Oilers picked a whole bunch of Moroz in the second round of the draft these past years”

rickithebear

Max Domi:
20 yr season
upper 3rd comp
75gm 15 EVG 3 PPG 17 EVA 12 PPA 1 SHA

RNH:
20 YR season
1st comp PVP center
80gm 13 EVG 6 PPG 23 EVA 14 PPA

S Gagner:
20 yr Season
mid 4th comp
68gm 9 EVG 6 PPG 15 EVA