TELL THE FOLKS BACK HOME THIS IS THE PROMISED LAND CALLING

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers said goodbye to Rexall in fine style last night, winning 6-2 on a strange night for everyone.

LIFE IN A NORTHERN TOWN, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
  • Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
  • Oilers in December 2014: 2-8-4
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1
  • Oilers in January 2015: 5-7-1
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2
  • Oilers in February 2015: 5-6-1
  • Oilers in February 2016: 4-8-2
  • Oilers in March 2015: 5-6-3
  • Oilers in March 2016: 7-8-0
  • Oilers in April 2015: 1-3-1
  • Oilers in April 2016: 1-1-0
  • Oilers after 81 in 2014-15: 24-44-13, 61 points (-82 GD)
  • Oilers after 81 in 2015-16: 31-43-7, 69 points (-41 GD)

Edmonton has a chance to hit 70 points for the first time since 2011-12 and Tom Renney. Their goal differential has been halved and they could finish nine points clear of last season.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

oilers blue nov 30

  • Griffin Reinhart had a very good night, had a couple of shot attempts a blocked shot and a takeaway. Looked very good with Sekera. If you don’t like Fayne, you are going to hate mature Reinhart.
  • Jordan Oesterle played a lot (27:57) and was plus three. One negative? He got walked by Horvat on his goal (lordy). I think we have him surrounded, as an AHL guy who can come up and give this team some badly needed depth next year.
  • Andrej Sekera seemed to be getting good looks, but his shot had no bite. I guess that means the shin pads jokes can take a break and we can talk muffins for the evening. I like Sekera a lot, he had one high-danger scoring chance and a very other opportunities. He has skated miles against the best of the west—wildly underrated by Oilers fans.
  • Adam Pardy had an assist, a shot on goal, some wonky passes but he also had three blocks and two takeaways. I like him, no idea where they would put him if signed for next year.
  • Mark Fayne had an assist, a high-danger scoring chances, was +2 and had five shots on goal. Lost the possession battle against the Sedins, that’s no news, but he hung in and delivered defensively—plus the offense. Another good game.
  • Darnell Nurse had a block but it caught him near the throat that ended his evening early.
  • Cam Talbot was solid, at times very good. The game ended with a win and that is a very good result for any goalie.

INDIVIDUAL HIGH-DANGER SCORING CHANCES

  • Three: Connor McDavid
  • Two: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  • One: Taylor Hall, Patrick Maroon, Jordan Eberle, Andrej Sekera, Iiro Pakarinen, Mark Fayne

CENTERS, LAST NIGHT

oil c nov 30

WINGERS, LAST NIGHT

oilers f nov 30

  • Maroon—McDavid—Eberle were very productive overall, winning the possession battle at even-strength and posting 3-4-7 boxcars. Not all from the line, or at even strength, but these three men were involved (15 SOG—seven from Eberle). McDavid is fire. Five HD-SC.
  • Korpikoski—RNH—Yakupov were also productive in possession, although only Nail posted a crooked number (goal). Nuge was solid in the FO circle and the line posted two HD-SC.
  • Hall—Draisaitl—Pakarinen did not win the possession battle, but all three had at least a point and the total boxcar was impressive (2-3-5). Leon is a shadow of his former self, Hall’s goal was music. Two HD-SC.
  • Hendricks—Letestu—Kassian were low-event offensively and should have been more effective based on opposition. The line played more than they should have based on McLellan’s established deployment, wonder if the coach wanted a veteran crash and bang trio to announce their presence with authority.

slepy williams

Photo by Mark Williams

Anton Slepyshev is turning it on late in the year, popped two goals in an OT loss to San Diego last night. He is 5-6-11 in his last 14 games—far better than his overall production. He did have an injury earlier in the winter, may have impacted his performance. These final games have been encouraging.

A good draft pick and a worthy signing. Jones’ scouting reports really didn’t give us much of a hint about what we were looking at, but the strong WHL season for Jones is a strong tell. ISS is the only scouting report I saw that implied this season:

  • ISS: Jones has shown promising development – he is coming into his own and has added more facets to his game over the last two seasons. Great work on the puck and advancing very well whether springing his forwards in the neutral zone or using the boards to find his man, doesn’t put his teammates in vulnerable positions. Much quicker and mobile then he was last season, quick on his feet and uses his edges well when carrying the puck. Although an offensive mindset he doesn’t get ahead of himself in the defensive zone. Strong development upward curve has him as a very intriguing prospect heading into the draft. Although doesn’t possess highend upside he has shown the ability to compete.

Ghastly luck for Darnell Nurse, that can be a very dangerous injury. I have no idea what the Oilers did to earn this season of injury, but holy hell it has been horrible to watch. Hopefully they got it all out of the way this year. We are all worried about Darnell, Oilers will no doubt update today.

HOW TO IMPROVE THE OILERS, 2016 EDITION

Everyone in Canada has an opinion about the best way to improve the Oilers over the summer, and those ideas range from tweaks to blowing it all up. In March of 2015, I wrote five things Edmonton could do over the summer to improve the team. In fact, Peter Chiarelli did most of it (Cam Talbot, Connor McDavid, Andrej Sekera) although he opted for Todd McLellan over Todd Nelson. I think the coach even believes in analytics, although the devil that is Corsi has no place here.

NEW FIVE THINGS

  • Find balance. Since Chris Pronger was traded, the Oilers have been so far from balance the mind boggles. Balance can come in very specific ways (a righty center to tip in the high passes, or a hammer from the point—even a renowned penalty killer).
  • Add two defensemen who are actual NHL players. We have discussed this at length, I will only say that at this point I am fairly convinced that Hamonic and Demers are the best available (if Hamonic is) options.
  • Re-stock the system. The 2015 draft looks good early, Edmonton needs to do it again. As well, signing college and CHL and Euro free agents (recently Joey Benik, Colton Waltz, Jere Sallinen—one from each category) is vital. Some for the 50-man, more on AHL deals.
  • Keep the centers three. Why? It sets up everything, just everything. Look, Todd McLellan doesn’t use his 4line at 5×5 too much, but a third line (featuring Nuge, and say, Pouliot) will give the opposition fits on the road, and give cover to the McDavid and Leon lines at home.
  • Light a candle. I don’t believe in voodoo or witchcraft or the power of a seance, so will go with a simple lighting of a candle. The Oilers have very little depth, so staying healthy will be vital to any success we see next season.
  • My original five things for this season was longer than five and is here.

Oilers fans will hammer each other about this all spring, but I prefer to stay on the sidelines. Arguing specifics is kind of useless at this point, because we don’t know how many tumblers need to click (and the order in which they occur). Consider the following possibilities:

  • Oilers sign Jason Demers.
  • Oilers sign Milan Lucic.
  • Oilers trade Benoit Pouliot to Anaheim for Cam Fowler.
  • Oilers deal Fowler plus to NY Islanders with Travis Hamonic as the major returning piece.

Oilers LH side becomes Sekera, Klefbom, Davidson, right side is Demers, Hamonic and Mark Fayne. Everyone else in the minors to start the year. Up front, Lucic replaces Pouliot. I am not saying this is my plan, just that it is possible to make a ‘defenseman to NY Islanders deal’ and still have quality. Chiarelli may need to play chess instead of checkers.

https://twitter.com/NicholsOnHockey/status/718066607159808000

I have written about Troy Stecher a few times, he would be a perfect fit for the Oilers. Suspect the team will have a lot of competition.

weir hockey card

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A terrific lineup today, great show unless I blow it. TSN1260, starting at 10 this morning:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Game last night, plus Chiarelli and McLellan report cards.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. Oilers heading to market, who sails on?
  • Guy Flaming, Pipeline Show. Frozen Four this weekend, who wins and who should we be watching (Stecher aside)?
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Oilers targets, plus an unusual hockey story out of Russia that could impact the draft.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. In 90 minutes!

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B S

AsiaOil,

Thing is, the pro-vaxxers are just fighting for what’s safest for THEIR kids. a bunch of diseased rugrats running around spreading mutated measles strains (measles allowed to spread among people WILL mutate) is a serious problem for all the other parents too so the anti-vaxxers don’t even have a moral foot to stand on. Science is the search for the truth, and the truth doesn’t give a shit about public opinion or money. It doesn’t matter if we’re talking about vaccinations, climate change, or whether Taylor Hall helps win hockey games.

Note: I’m not arguing science as the end all be all of how to live, or whether economics or morality are necessary when considering aspects of life, from economic policies to hockey, just that the consideration of consequences should be based on real evidence not debunked hearsay.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

JimmyV1965,

That’s one way of looking at it.

Great blog. Some of the best mind in hockey fandom, no doubt.

2 things suck.

a) The invariable objectification of women that accompanies far too many of Lowetide’s often excellent articles;

b) The thankfully infrequent political turns. Clearly not climate science, nor economics, is anything you know much about.

Stick on the ice.

AsiaOil

JimmyV1965:
sliderule,

These anti vaccine people remind me of the globalwarming fanatics. They are so far removed from the pain and suffering and hardships society faced even 50 years ago that they no longer appreciate the benefits of scientific advances.One group doesn’t understand how devastatingdiseases were. The other group doesn’t understand how much prosperity fossil fuels have created.

Agree with that – but like I said before – there are demonstrable risks involved. I am a scientist and my kids are vaccinated – and in my opinion the small risks are out-weighed by individual and social benefits. But you should never, ever, discount the genuine concern of a parent who thinks that harm may be done to their child, and it matters not if this concern is science based or emotional. Much of the vitriol in this debate stems from one group of people telling another group that they are ignorant and do not have the right to decide what is best for their kids. You will never win that kind of debate with a parent. Consensus is likely impossible but a bit of sensitivity and understanding of this dynamic would go miles toward at least having a civilized debate on the issue.

JimmyV1965

sliderule,

These anti vaccine people remind me of the global warming fanatics. They are so far removed from the pain and suffering and hardships society faced even 50 years ago that they no longer appreciate the benefits of scientific advances. One group doesn’t understand how devastating diseases were. The other group doesn’t understand how much prosperity fossil fuels have created.

highgloveside

The Oilers droppedtheir goal differentail by 41 goals thus far, if they improve by 41 next yer they will be at break even. Every team at break even or above in the playoffs. Only Detroit (-12) is in a playoff position with a negative. Not saying the Oilers will make the playoffs but if they make the same progress on goal differential again, they will be in the hunt

Professor Q

hunter1909: Something tells me McDavid is going to prefer having Nurse on the team whether he’s on an ELC or not.

The mania for trading Nurse just like he’s some screwed up prospect that needs to be flushed asap seems to take things outside a little to fast…namely that he’s already perfectly capable of scaring the living crap out of 90% of the NHL.

Fortunately for this hungover fan, Chiarelli has probably got no intention of losing Nurse. I mean, seriously, please name 5 players in the NHL who possess his potential skill set?

This reminds me of right after Edmonton drafted Nurse, and the MSM was lambasting him for not making Team Canada etc. etc. poor work ethic, raw skill, not good skating, maturity concerns.

That Team Canada sucked, and specifically more so in the defensive aspects.

Then Nurse lights up the Soo (Sault?) as captain and almost goes the distance, showing that yes, he should have been picked for Team Canada, and shutting up the ‘haters’, as they say.

Hopefully he pulls a similar improvement next year.

Rondo

AsiaOil,

Didn’t know you had credibility.

AsiaOil

Rondo:
AsiaOil,

Your wrong, Reinhart is not theplayer Chia expected.

Again based on what – other than your opinion of course? That will get you pretty much zero around here without a whole lot of history that builds credibility. But I’ve asked three times already and don’t expect an answer.

Rondo

AsiaOil,

Your wrong, Reinhart is not the player Chia expected.

B S

VanIsleOil,

The problem isn’t just a matter of penalty differential. The Oilers were shorthanded 6th most often at home, 26th most on the road, 13 most often overall, 26th in power play opportunities for overall, but they are/were a small skilled team. they shouldn’t be taking very many penalties overall, yet every year they’re in the top half for penalty minutes and bottom half for pp opportunities.

What I think Rex was looking to do is determine whether it’s a matter of teams taking more liberties (remember low pp opportunites; I prefer opportunities over pp time, as the shitty pp makes it look like there was more time than for other teams), than they Oilers players were allowed. It’s the non-calls that could be influencing the game. holds and hooks and interferences that impede an oilers player but don’t get called, vs Oilers not using those tactics as much because they always get called for it. That isn’t something that is going to show up in the special teams stats.

N64

VanIsleOil: When we start winning,I suspect the moaning regarding the refs will subside dramatically,imagine that.

They don’t pick on the Oilers. They only favour winning veteran media stars over losing young underrated players. Now how would that play out when the refs slum through Edmonton?

VanIsleOil

Ca$h-McMoney!:
tapper,

I get that.I understand the stat is very simplistic and isn’t representative.But that doesn’t mean it doesn’t provide some insight.

I also understand you can point to instances where bad calls have been made, or calls weren’t made that should have been.Happens all the time.

If the Oilers are being targeted, then the refs are doing an impressive job of doing it in a subtle enough way that it doesn’t push the Oilers +/- in PIMS to the fringes, they are still comfortably near the center.It’s also impressive that they’ve managed to penalize the kings so heavily dispite being (apparently) biased in their favour, given that their penalty diferential is more than 100 worse than the Oil.If they are making sure to do that during inconsequential times, they are doing a heck of a job, because that’s got to be a tough thing to accomplish, especially given that they’d need to coordinate between different groups of officials working different games, and they’d have to manage to keep every one of them from spilling the beans.

I agree parsing the data as you’ve suggested would be more effective.It would also be really time consuming.If someone wants to do it and show me I’ll give it a fair shake.

In the meantime I only know 3 things.

1. The oilers PIM +/- is in the range of middle of the pack
2. The team often referenced as benefiting the most from calls actually benefits the second least from calls based on the numbers in front of me.
3.Most importantly, the people that are complaining about the officiating as it relates to the Oilers are all cheering for the Oilers.

That last point strikes me as weird because I’m also a fan of the Lethbridge Hurricanes, and a lot of Hurricanes fans can make pretty strong cases that the refs are biased against that team too.It’s crazy that the two teams I cheer for are both subject to the same bias.Or they aren’t.

Agree totally , don’t understand why so many fans feel our Oilers are getting screwed by the refs. Guess a decade of misery with the team makes fans look for villains or reasons to help lessen the blow of the tidal wave of losses. Must be a conspiracy among the entire brotherhood of referees for the past few years.
When we start winning,I suspect the moaning regarding the refs will subside dramatically,imagine that.

stush18: I think they are both good fits with anyone offensively because of their hockey iq. I just think they are better fits for mcdavid

Also I don’t think backed will be willing to come here

Maybe we can ask Doug Weight to talk to him about Edmonton and convince him. 😉

Woodguy

vinotintazo: they could have brossoit as the AHL starter and Ellis as the back up, down in Bakersfield.

Condors cannot buy a save this season, they keep losing in OT.

Eetu Laurikainen is under contract as well.

I have seen suggestions from such people as Guy Flaming that Ellis starts in the ECHL.

That would be good.

Sign someone like Enroth for NHL back up, Brossoit & Laurikainen in Bakersfield and Ellis in the ECHL.

sliderule

hunter1909,
Most of us were scared shitless.

I had two kids in my grade two class die of polio.

In grade six a girl I was fond of spent two years on leg braces.

Schools would close over the fear.

Every one has it so good today and don’t really appreciate it

fifthcartel

This probably means neither Bouchard or Nagelvoort will be signed.

Jaxon

Ca$h-McMoney!,

I’d like to see them sign Jason Demers if they can get him at a somewhat reaosnable price (under $5M?), hold onto Fayne for the time being, sign Gryba to a cheap 1 year deal again, then…
Trade Caleb Jones & Korpikoski to CBJ for Paliotta & Rychel
Trade Davidson & Moroz (or other fwd prospect) to BUF for Pysyk & Bailey (or Baptiste)
If Yakupov has to go then maybe trade Yakupov with Musil (or Oesterle or Simpson) to WSH for Madison Bowey & Riley Barber. I know this would drive some fans crazy as not enough return, but both Bowey and Barber have promise and especially Bowey could prove to be the exact player EDM needs.

That would even out the LD RD imbalance and have some great prospects that might save the Oilers when they are up against the cap.

stush18

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: I actually don’t think McDavid and Eberle are a good fit. Call it blasphemy. So I agree with you somewhat. I think each has offensive skill on his own but the whole hasn’t been greater than the sum of its parts. McDavid can elevate lesser players (see Yakupov) and I still think they abandoned the Hall-McDavid combo too soon.

Hall-McDavid-Yakupov
Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle
Maroon-Backes-Draisaitl

Can’t be any worse than what they’ve been running this year.

I think they are both good fits with anyone offensively because of their hockey iq. I just think they are better fits for mcdavid

Also I don’t think backed will be willing to come here

Ducey

Woodguy:
Andy Strickland
‏@andystrickland
#Providence Goalie Nick Ellis has agreed to a 2 yr entry level deal with theEdmonton #Oilers starting next season #NHL

Brossoit looks like he’s the back up next year.

Not sure if I agree with that.

Why do you say that?

Couldn’t it be Broissoit #1 and Ellis #2 in BAK?

Ellis had a .936 save %, but I don’t see a goalie in Div I that had one below .920 http://www.uscho.com/stats/overall/division-i-men/2015-2016/

They could easily start him in the ECHL as well.

vinotintazo

Woodguy:
Andy Strickland
‏@andystrickland
#Providence Goalie Nick Ellis has agreed to a 2 yr entry level deal with theEdmonton #Oilers starting next season #NHL

Brossoit looks like he’s the back up next year.

Not sure if I agree with that.

they could have brossoit as the AHL starter and Ellis as the back up, down in Bakersfield.

Condors cannot buy a save this season, they keep losing in OT.

Jaxon

Ca$h-McMoney!:
Jaxon,

Agree 100%.CLB is the most likely suitor for Korps, and selling them Jones might net a nice return for us.

Jones is a good prospect, but realistically he’s the third best D we drafted last year in the later rounds, and #4 (Marino) seems like a decent pick too.

Not to mention he’s currently about 12th or 13th on the Left-hand D depth chart (and I’m not exaggerating and I’m not counting Nikitin, Ference or Pardy!)

leadfarmer

Woodguy:
Andy Strickland
‏@andystrickland
#Providence Goalie Nick Ellis has agreed to a 2 yr entry level deal with theEdmonton #Oilers starting next season #NHL

Brossoit looks like he’s the back up next year.

Not sure if I agree with that.

Well we better hope Talbot is healthy then. I have very little confidence in Brossoit to play more than 15 games

Woodguy,

Remember that “disagreement” we had about assuming him as backup? Haha. I kid.

I agree they should have at least another option.

B S

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: I agree with you. See my next post above on that subject (robbing Peter to pay Paul).

I see Hamonic as a top 4 guy, not a #1.
Sekera-×××××
Klefbom-Hamonic

That second pair there should be the Vlasic-Braun shutdown pair.

Now all we need is a “Burns” type to go with Sekera. Shattenkirk, Vatanen, Barrie etc.

Does that make sense?

I think we’re on the same page as to what Hamonic is, I posted more to generally question the prices others have posted for him. If he’s going to be a 2nd pairing Dman, then if he costs an experienced top 10 in the league RW I don’t see how the team is further ahead. I think that is the Oilers problem though. stud #1 dmen cost McDavid, and no-one will trade them for less than that (see Hall OEL discussions from forever and always).

A lesser defenceman just doesn’t replace the production of a top line forward. GA goes down, but so does GF. A bottom 6 forward line that can score, without giving up much would go a long way to fixing this team. a competent defence would help to, but a good defence with no scoring forwards is still going to lose and McDavid can only be on for ~20 min./game.

Centre of attention

Andy Strickland ‏@andystrickland · 3m3 minutes ago

#Providence Goalie Nick Ellis has agreed to a 2 yr entry level deal with the Edmonton #Oilers starting next season #NHL

Woodguy

Andy Strickland
‏@andystrickland
#Providence Goalie Nick Ellis has agreed to a 2 yr entry level deal with the Edmonton #Oilers starting next season #NHL

Brossoit looks like he’s the back up next year.

Not sure if I agree with that.

tsg

A few threads ago I looked at Eberle’s number and his points per 60 which accounts for TOI in the previous 2 seasons had him 36th – second line production.

score 40 riding shotgun for McDavid, but he probably shoots left so scrap that.

Was that just for RW? There are 90 first line players in the NHL. Those numbers would put him close to the top third and within the top half of first line players in the NHL.

Ducey

fifthcartel:
Mark Divver ‏@MarkDivver3m3 minutes ago
Hearing that undrafted @FriarsHockey junior goalie Nick Ellis is close to agreement on 2-year contract with @EdmontonOilers

.936 in 36 games with Providence this season.

Hopefully its this guy
http://wpri.com/2016/01/10/junior-ellis-shines-in-starring-role-with-pc-hockey/

Not this guy
http://nickellis.se/gigs-events/

Looks like this was his first chance to play any meaningful minutes in college and that he was a junior this last year. Hockey db says he is 6’1″ which might be a bit small, but with goalies, who the heck knows?

More the better. And another reason the Oilers should not waste picks on goalies.

Chachi

Slava Malamud (https://twitter.com/SlavaMalamud) does seem to be a good source of info on the Russian U18 drug scandal. Seems like those kids were regularly dosed with meldonium by their coaching staff. Pretty horrible if true. I make sure to put my tinfoil hat on first though before reading anything on the internet, especially anything connected to mainstream media. Of course this requires me to take off my other tinfoil hat which blocks out wifi signals and microwave messages from spy satellites, but we must sacrifice to stay informed.

Adam Wu

russ99: I’d really love to see someone write an objective post on Klefbom’s strengths and weaknesses without leaning on the obviously skewed fancystat numbers that portray him as something he’s not.

If by watching him play in the defensive zone without the puck you can equate him to anything more than league average, I’d say you’re blind.

Nothing that relies of watching with human eyes and judging with human minds can ever be objective.

The whole reason we as a species have used and benefitted from the use of stats is because they ARE blind. Blind to the cognitive biases that plague our imperfect, evolved brains.

AsiaOil

It was a bad deal in your opinion but you have no basis this assessment other than your opinion. Studies of draft pick outcomes says otherwise. They paid in full. If you haven’t noticed – Griffin Reinhart is playing in the NHL since ASB. He’s doing just fine while the magic beans we traded remain magic beans.

Rondo:
AsiaOil,

They picked Reinhart because they thought he could play in the NHL right away .The point is they were wrong and if they could have it back theywould.

The point is there is a tipping point for this you can’t say because x and Y don’t play in the NHL thatit was a good trade.
Dylan Strome Mitch Marner many others have not played but there is a point where cannot use your logic. For me #16 + #33 was a bad tradeoff

leadfarmer

AsiaOil:
Unless this is a sarcastic misfire – don’t your realize that this simply makes you look foolish and gullible?I teach critical thinking for a living and this type of mindless response would get an F from me. You look at all the information in any situation and maintain a skeptical perspective on all evidence.

PS – my kids are vaccinated – there are clear and demonstrable risks involved but in my opinion these are out-weighed by individual and social benefits.

So you teach critical thinking by telling people how to think.

Centre of attention

fifthcartel:
Mark Divver ‏@MarkDivver3m3 minutes ago
Hearing that undrafted @FriarsHockey junior goalie Nick Ellis is close to agreement on 2-year contract with @EdmontonOilers

.936 in 36 games with Providence this season.

Good news. Good numbers.

hunter1909

Despite never being given a competent goalie/defence/veteran presence:

Hall/Eberle/RNH/Yakupov/Nurse/Reinhart have all been expected as developing rookies to overcome everything; and now that they’ve predictably succeeded in becoming the scapegoats, just because some bloated asshole from Toronto named Bob Mackenzie writes an article.

B S

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
Fun fact: lockout year Taylor Hall had 16-34-50 in 45 games.
Clavicle year McDavid has 16-32-48 in 44 games. 2 assists next game?

Do we underrate Taylor Hall around here?

I’m hoping 3 assists and 5 goals, so that all those jackasses who didn’t vote for him for the calder look as stupid as they are.

B S

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: I actually don’t think McDavid and Eberle are a good fit. Call it blasphemy. So I agree with you somewhat. I think each has offensive skill on his own but the whole hasn’t been greater than the sum of its parts. McDavid can elevate lesser players (see Yakupov) and I still think they abandoned the Hall-McDavid combo too soon.

Hall-McDavid-Yakupov
Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle
Maroon-Backes-Draisaitl

Can’t be any worse than what they’ve been running this year.

I would love to see the stats on Hall Yakupov, because by eye Hall is one of the few who can keep track of where Yakupov is going. They seem to work well together and we know Yak likes playing with McDavid so it could be a good combination. I think the trick to Hall McD is just experience recognizing when the defense is keying on McDavid and getting it to an open Hall.

Also one of the things Yak did when playing with McDavid that I think was underrated is he could hit him in stride with a forehand or back hand pass. McDavid is so fast that taking a pass without breaking stride usually puts him past the Dmen and gives a prime scoring chance.

I will disagree with you on Nurse for Hamonic itself, just from my personal preference for Nurse’s skill set (intimidating, fast, with good puck skills), but that’s approximately the sort of Trade Edmonton should be looking at. and yes, I see him as a good, reliable 2nd pairing who can play up when injuries hit. Also, if Demers or someone of similar skill is the other Dman then I think a 3rd pairing of Davidson Fayne rounds out a competitive, but not championship defense. Playoff possible depending on just how consistent Davidson and Klefbom are.

Fun fact: lockout year Taylor Hall had 16-34-50 in 45 games.
Clavicle year McDavid has 16-32-48 in 44 games. 2 assists next game?

Do we underrate Taylor Hall around here?

rickithebear

russ99: I’d really love to see someone write an objective post on Klefbom’s strengths and weaknesses without leaning on the obviously skewed fancystat numbers that portray him as something he’s not.

If by watching him play in the defensive zone without the puck you can equate him to anything more than league average, I’d say you’re blind.

Remember that study that looked at witnesses memory for the court system.
might want See it !

When watching D I like to see there foot pivot. and quickness of that foot leg turn when engaging an attacking opposition player.
j. patrick was a Beauty

I like to see the leverage abilty of a lengthened D in front of the net.

it is often like watching a End/Tackle Or Guard/MLB engagenment in Football.

I like o see if the D has the stick length and abilty to disrupt Lanes.

A lot of the best young HSCA d in the game are 6’3″+ 210 LB +.

I expect the D to Maintain a none perimeter position. To shelter tand defend the Critical scoring Space.

fifthcartel

Mark Divver ‏@MarkDivver 3m3 minutes ago
Hearing that undrafted @FriarsHockey junior goalie Nick Ellis is close to agreement on 2-year contract with @EdmontonOilers

.936 in 36 games with Providence this season.

hunter1909,

Oh no worries. And I hear you. Seems like changes are coming though, and so I thought it worthwhile to discuss what would hurt the least.

GCW_69

Water Fire: Hamonic doesn’t wow me either, I was also thinking Fayne but physical and maybe faster. I’m not breaking the bank for that.

A few threads ago I looked at Eberle’s number and his points per 60 which accounts for TOI in the previous 2 seasons had him 36th – second line production.

It will not hurt the team to move him, far less than Nuge. I actually think Nuge would outscore Eberle at RW. Woodguy could score 40 riding shotgun for McDavid, but he probably shoots left so scrap that.

Eberle is the 8th highest scoring RW since he entered the league, and the only one in the top 15 that includes a rookie season. From 2011/12 until now he has the 7th highest points per game of any right wing playing over 250 games during that period. His points per 60 of all right wingers also ranks 7th of those playing at least 250 games. If you go just the last three years, he is 15th in points per sixty of players playing more than 200 games. Since there are 30 first line right wingers, it seems to me Eberle is squarely in the first line category of proven right wing talent.

hunter1909

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
hunter1909,

Who said he was a failed prospect to be flushed? Not I.

I laid out a painful, reluctant trade scenario where I believe the one piece to go the other way in a Hamonic trade that would hurt the least next year is Nurse.

No more no less. If it seemed like I was ragging on Nurse, I am not. I will refer you to my write up on him for Bruce at CoH from Penticton to show you how much of a fan of his I am if you like.

Get some lemon juice and soda!

Please forgive my using a response to you in order to rail against all and sundry.

Still, who’s this great Travis Hamonic? He’s freaking injury prone to start with.

29th place teams simply never trade away their talent, and succeed. Never.

Never. Never. Never.

stush18:
NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

I just wish ebs knew how to take a one timer. He scores 25 goals a year, but if he could onetime the puck he would reach 40. Him and mcdavid are essentially the key prices for the powerplay, and I place some of the lack of success on him.

I actually don’t think McDavid and Eberle are a good fit. Call it blasphemy. So I agree with you somewhat. I think each has offensive skill on his own but the whole hasn’t been greater than the sum of its parts. McDavid can elevate lesser players (see Yakupov) and I still think they abandoned the Hall-McDavid combo too soon.

Hall-McDavid-Yakupov
Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle
Maroon-Backes-Draisaitl

Can’t be any worse than what they’ve been running this year.

LMHF#1

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
Pouzar is going to kill me for this, but the Oilers should have gone with Ristolainen over Nurse. He was higher ranked, too.

I love Nurse and he was flat out dominant in Penticton last fall, but as he should have been.

But so far in the pros, the right-handed, puck-moving potential of Risto to go with his skating and size looks like a better bet than Nurse’s awesome skating, good shot, and mean streak on the left side.

I remember going to the season ticket holders lunch before the Nurse pick. A bunch of barfle from the old boys about how this was turning around, a horrid presentation they were showing to try and attract new players, and MacTavish gushing about Nurse.

I like the guy as a player, but he wasn’t the pick there. He was also chosen based on personality rather than play. Wrong.

B S: As far as I could tell Fayne had two deficiencies that kept him from being effective in the west. One was his foot speed (Fayne has good maneuverability by eye, but can’t catch a turtle from behind) and the other was his physicality. After he came back from the minors Fayne has been more physical and this has allowed him more room to pass the puck up ice once he’s taken it. the top forwards in the West are large, tough, and typically drive to the net. Hamonic needs to not only be able to keep pace, but also box out top opposing forwards and win board battles to be a 1st pairing Dman.

I do think he is a good player, but I’m concerned with penciling him into the top pairing in a weak western conference team, i.e. no support if he can’t keep up. I see a lot of the trade proposals assume that the oilers have forward depth. They don’t. 4 NHL centers (including Letestu) and just enough wingers to score in the NHL isn’t depth. Unless the Oil are getting that top pairing guy, who will anchor the defence for 25 minutes a night, I see the Eberle for Hamonic trade scenarios as robbing Peter to pay Paul.

I agree with you. See my next post above on that subject (robbing Peter to pay Paul).

I see Hamonic as a top 4 guy, not a #1.
Sekera-×××××
Klefbom-Hamonic

That second pair there should be the Vlasic-Braun shutdown pair.

Now all we need is a “Burns” type to go with Sekera. Shattenkirk, Vatanen, Barrie etc.

Does that make sense?

hunter1909,

Who said he was a failed prospect to be flushed? Not I.

I laid out a painful, reluctant trade scenario where I believe the one piece to go the other way in a Hamonic trade that would hurt the least next year is Nurse.

No more no less. If it seemed like I was ragging on Nurse, I am not. I will refer you to my write up on him for Bruce at CoH from Penticton to show you how much of a fan of his I am if you like.

Get some lemon juice and soda!

hunter1909

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: I don’t want to trade Nurse but I do think this team needs to move up the schedule on competing by a bit. This team has to be making progress before McDavid’s ELC runs out.

Something tells me McDavid is going to prefer having Nurse on the team whether he’s on an ELC or not.

The mania for trading Nurse just like he’s some screwed up prospect that needs to be flushed asap seems to take things outside a little to fast…namely that he’s already perfectly capable of scaring the living crap out of 90% of the NHL.

Fortunately for this hungover fan, Chiarelli has probably got no intention of losing Nurse. I mean, seriously, please name 5 players in the NHL who possess his potential skill set?

B S

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
B S,

Hamonic is a much better skater than Fayne. A lot quicker.

He is more likely to be able to translate his game to the Pacific Division than Fayne because of his skating.

As far as I could tell Fayne had two deficiencies that kept him from being effective in the west. One was his foot speed (Fayne has good maneuverability by eye, but can’t catch a turtle from behind) and the other was his physicality. After he came back from the minors Fayne has been more physical and this has allowed him more room to pass the puck up ice once he’s taken it. the top forwards in the West are large, tough, and typically drive to the net. Hamonic needs to not only be able to keep pace, but also box out top opposing forwards and win board battles to be a 1st pairing Dman.

I do think he is a good player, but I’m concerned with penciling him into the top pairing in a weak western conference team, i.e. no support if he can’t keep up. I see a lot of the trade proposals assume that the oilers have forward depth. They don’t. 4 NHL centers (including Letestu) and just enough wingers to score in the NHL isn’t depth. Unless the Oil are getting that top pairing guy, who will anchor the defence for 25 minutes a night, I see the Eberle for Hamonic trade scenarios as robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Rondo

AsiaOil,

They picked Reinhart because they thought he could play in the NHL right away . The point is they were wrong and if they could have it back they would.

The point is there is a tipping point for this you can’t say because x and Y don’t play in the NHL that it was a good trade.
Dylan Strome Mitch Marner many others have not played but there is a point where cannot use your logic. For me #16 + #33 was a bad tradeoff

kinger_OIL

hunter1909,

– Your just brought me to my days in elementary school in 70’s where we all lined up, like the whole school, and entered the nursing room one by one. Some of kids would scream or cry or sob as they got their shots with these big-as$ needles, while the rest of us waited in line…

– That was a suppressed memory you just unlocked: thanks Hunter

– Maybe I will feel better when I win that Oil Jersey after another win and a 71 point season and/or winning the Conner points prognostication