RE 15-16 JORDAN EBERLE: HASN’T HIT ME YET

by Lowetide

I will tell you that loss never gets easy, but it does become familiar as time goes on. There is a strange emotion that recalls all the moments of loss that came before. The feeling usually arrives when new routine begins again. As weird as it sounds, there is some comfort there, a rush of memories great and small. Damndest thing. (Hasn’t Hit Me Yet)

JORDAN EBERLE 10-11

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.82 (4th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.94 (3rd among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 3rd toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 8th best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 8.7 (2nd best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 49.3% (8th most difficult among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 51.6% (6th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 158/11.4% (5th among F’s>100 shots)
  • Boxcars: 68gp, 18-25-43 (led the team in points as a rookie)

JORDAN EBERLE 11-12

  • 5×5 points per 60: 3.08 (1st among regular F’s, 2nd in NHL)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.77 (4th among regular F’s)
  • Qual Comp: 5th toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 3rd best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 5.7 (5th best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 60.7 % (2nd easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 54.5% (best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 180/18.9% (1st among F’s>100 shots)
  • Boxcars: 78, 34-42-76 (led the team in points for 2nd year in a row)

JORDAN EBERLE 12-13

  • 5×5 points per 60: 2.31 (2nd among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.46 (7th among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 3rd toughest among regular forwards (top line opp)
  • Qual Team: best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 21.9 (best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 51.1% (5th most difficult among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 50.0% (8th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 133/12.03% (3rd among F’s>70 shots)
  • Boxcars: 48, 16-21-37

JORDAN EBERLE 13-14

  • 5×5 points per 60: 2.03 (2nd among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.72 (3rd among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 5th toughest among regular forwards (2nd line opp)
  • Qual Team: 3rd best teammates among regular forwards (top linemates)
  • Corsi Rel: 7.3 (2nd best among regular forwards)
  • Corsi for % 5×5: 46.3
  • Corsi for % Rel 5×5: +2.9
  • Zone Start: 55.8% (4th easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 47.2% (5th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 200/14% (1st among F’s>100 shots)
  • Boxcars: 80, 28-37-65

JORDAN EBERLE 14-15

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.97 (4th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 5.85 (1st among regular forwards)
  • Corsi for % 5×5: 50.4
  • Qual Comp: toughest among regular forwards (1st line opp)
  • Qual Team: 2nd best teammates among regular forwards (top linemates)
  • Corsi Rel: 7.7
  • Zone Start: 63.7
  • Zone Finish: 56.2
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 183/13.1%
  • Boxcars: 81, 24-39-63

JORDAN EBERLE 15-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.85 (5th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.17 (4th among regular forwards)
  • Corsi for % 5×5: 50.9
  • Qual Comp: 3rd toughest among regular forwards (1st line opp)
  • Qual Team: 3rd best teammates among regular forwards (top linemates)
  • Corsi Rel: 7.4
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 173/14.5
  • Boxcars: 69, 25-22-47

WAR ON ICE PLAYER CHART

war on ice sledgehammer

RE 15-16 PREDICTION: 80GP, 28-38-66 .825

RE 15-16 ACTUAL: 69GP, 25-22-47 .681

  1. Sounds like the end of something. I think so, yes. Peter Chiarelli will need to give in order to get and a winger is easier to replace than a center.
  2. Why did it get this way? For some reason, the Oilers’ brass decided about 2010 to collect draft picks, sign over-the-hill free agents and stay in a holding pattern. When the time came to add real free agents, they had to overpay and those vets could not push the results. And if anyone was any damned good, they would trade them for picks. Penner to Petry, cradle to grave.
  3. And? Well, I think they had something with Renney, but Steve Tambellini decided to go fishing with Ralph and his big brain. After that, it was a mess and that’s for sure.
  4. What kind of season did Eberle have? The usual, fine goal-scorer—he is No. 12 all-time on the Oilers list after six seasons—and he settled in after a slow start.
  5. How slow? He was 12gp, 3-0-3 in November and then 57GP, 22-22-44 the rest of the way. He is a consistent scorer, those guys have value.
  6. Aside from the goals, what else does he bring? Shoots right.
  7. Good grief. Seriously, on this team that is an advantage. Oilers need more righties, not fewer.
  8. Anything else? Sublime passer, they all are and it is an underrated skill. Once they get the puck heading north, these cats can move the puck. Take a pass, make a pass, grow a brain. That should be the first lesson of hockey.
  9. Did he post any career highs, or did the injury derail everything? His 14.5 shooting percentage was his highest since 2011-12, but only slightly above career average. He can shoot the damned biscuit.
  10. Blocks? 23, lowest total in years.
  11. What about the injury? It was a nothing play, I was at the game. A push, happens all the time. What a stupid year.
  12. Anything else unusual about the stats? Well, he posted a good 5×4/60 but his power-play assists were way down. Eberle is a finisher, but like Hall, he can send those lovely passes too. I do not have an answer for why his assist total went from 15 to 4.
  13. He spent hours dusting off the damned puck! He did seem to have the yips late in the year, that’s for sure. I doubt it is going to be his signature move, things happen. Brain cramp or some such.
  14. How many good years does he have left? Oh hell, a ton. The man is 25.
  15. And yet you want to trade him. Sad, really. Eberle is the guy who was supposed to stay for the duration, I pegged him as the Johnny Bucyk of this Oilers teams miles ago. May not work that way, depending on how things roll this summer.
  16. Didn’t Bucyk start in Detroit, then Boston? Sure, but Bruce is the only guy who knows that, and he won’t tell on me.
  17. What’s the best thing you could tell a stranger about Eberle. He’s a consistent offensive player and can be productive on a line that doesn’t house his team’s best player (proved that in 2014-15).
  18. Why doesn’t he get more attention? Oilers lose a lot, that craters all values, it just does. Plus, he’s played a lot of his career with No. 1 overall picks, those guys get a lot of attention.
  19. Who did he play well with last season? Well, let me tell you. He was over 50 percent with pretty much everyone, and here are his 5×5/60s: McDavid 2.64; Nuge 2.23; Maroon 2.07; Pouliot 2.04. Silly good. Only played with Hall-Leon when he arrived back (iirc) and they were not good together, but would be if all the pistons are firing.
  20. Where could he thrive? Anywhere they have a center who can dish. Honestly, he would probably fit most of the eastern seaboard really well, Ottawa, Montreal, Florida. Jordan Eberle is a very good scorer.
  21. Who are his comparables. Six years in, the list of comps includes Ales Hemsky, Mike Richards, Bobby Ryan, Matt Duchene. They are all good hockey players.
  22. How many more years on this contract for Eberle? Three.
  23. He is the most obvious $6 million to trade, isn’t he? Yes, although it creates a big hole the moment he is dealt.
  24. So why do it? I expect Edmonton would like to win the lottery and use that pick, or maybe No. 2 overall. I don’t think the preference is to trade any of the $6 million men.
  25. Any other preferred trades? Maybe Pouliot, they could deal him and run Hall—Maroon—Korpikoski—Hendricks but that is awful.
  26. Why Eberle? Well, it is easier to replace Eberle and sign Eriksson or Okposo or Brouwer or Vanek. You can trade Hall if you know Lucic is coming (I would not do that, bet Chiarelli would love to bring Lucic here), and you could trade Nuge if you knew David Krejci was on the way. I think a lot of what we are doing is pissing in the wind, because PC will know who he has a good chance to land and we do not.
  27. So, then why talk about Eberle being traded? I am playing the odds, which is reasonable. These are reasonable expectations after all.
  28. So, in your estimation, Eberle is the most likely to go? Yes. Chiarelli would know that Hall pushes the river and that along with McDavid can give Edmonton superior forwards for over half the game. That is either two scoring lines or one stunning, hopped up line. Hall and Leon looked good much of last season, but Hall and Leon and Nuge looked fantastic. So, if that is the case, then it is a matter of finding wingers for McDavid. Maroon is one, with Pouliot as a solid LW option. Getting the RW, should they choose to deal Eberle, is the lesser of all other evils.
  29. Is there any way to keep all of the $6M men? Sure. Sign Jason Demers, keep Mark Fayne and put Brandon Davidson on the third pairing with Darnell Nurse. Klefbom—Demers, Sekera—Fayne, Nurse—Davidson. You still need a hammer from the point, though, and I stand alone on this blog in defense of Mark Fayne so we all know where that conversation will go in the comments section. I imagine that is why we heard the name Dennis Wideman last week. Chiarelli is exploring all avenues. This thing isn’t over yet.
  30. It is the one year anniversary of the McDavid lottery. It changed everything. Since the McDavid lottery win, Edmonton has a new GM, new coach and have added up the middle with Cam Talbot, Andrej Sekera, Eric Gryba, Griffin Reinhart, Mark Letestu and of course McDavid.
  31. Where were you? Right here, in this chair. It was Saturday late afternoon, I had a glass of wine in my hand. I had just written a mock draft but had to throw a post up and re-do the mock. The comments in both threads are a blast.
  32. Why this song? The great thing about Blue Rodeo is that most of their songs are about endings, so this could have been any number of selections. I chose this one because it has that feel of inevitability, the die is cast. And as much as I love Jim Cuddy’s voice, there is a resignation in Greg Keelor’s vocal that is a perfect fit here. There are some great lines, but the song itself has that melancholy feel that I believe will surround Eberle (should he be dealt this summer). It should have worked out, he is a helluva player. You say that you’re leaving, that comes as no surprise.
111 comments
0

You may also like

0 0 vote
Article Rating
111 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
AsiaOil

marty62: Really? Who is putting up close to 60 points a year and 25 to 30 goals a year and making only $4 million in the NHL today???

RW making less than Ebs who scored equal or more goals (25) this year:

Wheeler $5.6 million
Jagr $5.4 million
Doan $5.3 million
Neal $5.0 million
Zucharello $4.5 million
Erikkson 4.25 million
Oshie $4.2 million
Simmons $3.95 million
Atkinson $3.5 million
R. Smith 3.25 million
Palmieri $1.5 million
Kutcherov 0.895 million

Only 4 of the 16 RW who scored more than Ebs had higher cap hits: Kane, Tarasenko, Perry and Kessel.

Really……

Suntory Hanzo

dustrock:
PunkInDrublic,

Great user name.

If only LT would do a NOFX Re

Suntory Hanzo

Ice Sage: Yeh, well then LT would have the title ‘Underwhelmed” for 20 straight posts!!!!!!!!

He could have gotten some play out of “I am the Cancer”

Too bad Sammy Gags is gone. He would have been perfect for ‘Snowsuit Sound’

Love Sloan. Saw them originally at the Bronx for Twice Removed and my friend was photographed crowdsurfing and it was front page of entertainment section. His dad was a teacher on the North side and got ribbed about his son looking stoned.

Saw them again last year playing the album in its entirety. One of the band I have seen the most times in the most places. Oddest place on the Whistler Blackcomb mountain with some dreadlocked rapper.

Enjoy Blue Rodeo – and this has been a blast from the past, but wished the (I believe far superior) Skydiggers never got the accolades they deserved.

marty62

I am coming in to this a little late, but I keep reading above comparisons of Eberle to Hemsky and other of similiar types…check your stats. Eberle just finished his 6th year in the NHL and he has 6 less goals than Hemsky has had in 12 seasons…. eberle is a 25 to 30 goals per year player. Hemsky is a passer that has twice managed to hit 20. Also read somewhere above that we can replace Eberles offense with a $ 4 mill per year guy… Really? Who is putting up close to 60 points a year and 25 to 30 goals a year and making only $4 million in the NHL today??? I think this blog drastically underestimates the value of a guy who can put the puck in the net. yes Eberle will not be confused with a checking type player but dont underestimate how hard it is to replace those goals

square_wheels

rickithebear,

Which type of D compliments him on the right side ?

Harmonic type or Vatanen type ?

Or Demers ?

AsiaOil

If true then we should not trade the pick as we will be able to select the very best young defenseman in the world in his age group. Shyte gets real here for the scouts – if we keep the pick or trade down only modestly to pick a dman – they MUST get this right.

LD Mikhail Sergachev, Windsor Spitfires (OHL)
LD Olli Juolevi, London Knights (OHL)
LD Jacob Chychrun, Sarnia Sting (OHL)
RD Charlie McAvoy, Boston University (NCAA)
RD Dante Fabbro, Penticton (BCJHL)

Hamonic seems like a deal we can make without gutting the team of a river pusher at forward – Vatanen may also be available – and Demers is interesting as a young UFA. We also have an extra young LHD (Nurse, GR, Davy) that will need to be dealt for a RHD as there simply is not enough room. Will be real interesting to see what Chia does over the next 10 weeks. Probably the most important period of time in terms of putting this team together in the last 10 years and maybe the next 10 years.

Richard S.S.:
The very best Defenders, the young star studs are beyond price.Players of this caliber, the “shock and awe” variety, are never traded because there are so very few in Hockey at any one time.Every Team wants one, but almost no one can afford the price.Edmonton must.

Trading Edmonton’s 2016 1st Round Pick (possibly 1-5 overall) has exceptional value, but it will never get the job done.There must be more offered, but I don’t know what.
Trading Taylor Hall, with his exceptional talent and abilities, has exceptional value, but it will never get the job done.There must be more offered, but I don’t know what.
Trading Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, with his exceptional talent and abilities, has exceptional value, but it will never get the job done.There must be more offered, but I don’t know what.

To meet this price, you must scream in pain.

N64

“Steve Smith”: Sometimes a flea stares back at me. It’s wearing a hat with a flower.

Never read Seuss under the influence.

"Steve Smith"

Магия 10: It just gets so complicated when you plumb the depths of your thoughts. Best not to stare into that abyss.

Sometimes a flea stares back at me. It’s wearing a hat with a flower.

N64

“Steve Smith”: Is that not how the knuckle-draggers think of statheads? That’s how I think of the knuckle-draggers thinking of the statheads.

(You don’t want to know how I think of the knuckle-draggers thinking of me thinking of the knuckle-draggers thinking of the statheads. I’ll give you a clue, though: I think of them doing so on a bump on a log in a hole in the bottom of the sea.)

It just gets so complicated when you plumb the depths of your thoughts. Best not to stare into that abyss.

"Steve Smith"

Магия 10: ~ I thought Ricki actually is a bear typing on a real big keyboard.

Is that not how the knuckle-draggers think of statheads? That’s how I think of the knuckle-draggers thinking of the statheads.

(You don’t want to know how I think of the knuckle-draggers thinking of me thinking of the knuckle-draggers thinking of the statheads. I’ll give you a clue, though: I think of them doing so on a bump on a log in a hole in the bottom of the sea.)

Richard S.S.

The very best Defenders, the young star studs are beyond price. Players of this caliber, the “shock and awe” variety, are never traded because there are so very few in Hockey at any one time. Every Team wants one, but almost no one can afford the price. Edmonton must.

Trading Edmonton’s 2016 1st Round Pick (possibly 1-5 overall) has exceptional value, but it will never get the job done. There must be more offered, but I don’t know what.
Trading Taylor Hall, with his exceptional talent and abilities, has exceptional value, but it will never get the job done. There must be more offered, but I don’t know what.
Trading Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, with his exceptional talent and abilities, has exceptional value, but it will never get the job done. There must be more offered, but I don’t know what.

To meet this price, you must scream in pain.

Doug McLachlan

Lowetide: Nothing wrong with that plan. At all.

Love the idea of keeping the band together and adding on but other than Demers, who comes in at say $5.5 x 6 yrs (more? less?), what are the other options that could really change the game barring a trade?

There are teams out there who are tight to the cap/budget that “might” be subject to an Offer Sheet (or more likely the threat of one) – say Barrie in Colorado or Jones in Columbus – but even Roy/Sakic know how important Barrie is and Columbus just traded for Jones so don’t think he springs free.

I know that there may be some interest in Anaheim to move a young d but presumably that was for some established offense up front – not for a draft pick. Same thing with Hamonic on the Island, Snow is going to want a real player (and likely at d) as opposed to a pick.

I don’t like it but the fixes that need to happen will require more than minor adjustments to the roster.

AsiaOil

Well since you ask……..

Zucherello
Oshie
Simmonds
J Williams
Riley Smith
Kucherov
Brower
Gallagher
etc etc

….all make much less than Ebs and put up comparable or superior ES/PP points per 60. Gallagher (while not what I consider “well rounded”) is actually a very good comp with much better ES scoring and a bit less PP scoring – he was injured this year as well:

Eberle: 1.97 ESP/60 3.69 PPP/60 $6 million cap hit
Gallagher 2.40 ESP/60 3.38 PPP/60 $3.75 million cap hit

LoDog:
AsiaOil,

Care to provide any examples of 4 million dollar players that can bring Eberle’s offence and are “well rounded” players?

hags9k

Lowetide,

The injuries and eventual 29th finish have muddied the water. They were better, and if they would have addressed the D properly and stayed healthy who knows.

I cling to Nicholson’s words about loyalty. I romanticize about the team staying in tact until they all start clicking, with Yakupov being the future poster boy for the togetherness and patience paying off.

But the reality is that Yak has asked out and will be fired from under the old boys bus, straight into the sun. And the relentless Toronto media meme of “one of the core has to go for a D” will likely win the day.

Very, very dangerous summer.

Water Fire

So we know rush goals dominate but that is about breakdowns and tempo, and not the whole story. It is still important to be able to hold the offensive zone as it is the second largest way to score.

It is also a part of the chess game, as opposed to checkers. Even without scoring (which is most of the game) it is keeping the puck out of your end, and stressing and tiring the opponent.

Maroon is unique in that while flawed he has skill and is an ass kicker. He creates room which every NHL team will DESPERATELY ( ha ha ha) try to take from Connor as he scorches their earth.

Give him skill with speed on the other side, preferably with some board skill and he’s set until the game has to change to try to stop him.

Water Fire

To me increasing net size is a band aid . Goalie equipment size needs regulation that suit league objectives as does every other thing. People will always push the limits.

Smaller goalie eq. Call obstruction and dangerous play to encourage the talent which is what we all really tune in for. That alone will help. If shooters gain advantage regulate flex on sticks.

If that isn’t enough get rid of the Bettman but that is unlikely as it dupes the average fan into thinking their team is in things far longer than we, the long suffering Oiler fans, standings and draft experts know.

hags9k

Keep Eberle, keep Yakupov. Sign the best FA D you can. Trade the 1st for the best D you can get.

Coach the hell out of them.

GCW_69

leadfarmer: I always enjoy this picture to illustrate the same point
https://twitter.com/syckhockey/status/453253297923948545

I would be a big fan of raising the crossbar 4 inches and the net wider by 2 inches for next season.The NHLPA will fight a lot of the equipment changes under “safety banner”

In 2007 it was proposed to the GMs to increase the size:

“One of the items on the agenda at the NHL general managers meeting in February is whether, in an effort to increase scoring, the league should make the goal bigger. It’s now six feet wide by four feet high — the same as it’s always been. The new goal would add eight inches in width and four inches in height — 80″ x 52″ — so if you do the math, that’s a 20 percent increase. ” *

That sounds about right to me.

* http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/em_swift/01/16/bigger.goals/index.html The original seems to be gone, but it was re-posted here: http://www.gixxer.com/forums/21-hockey-talk/125417-why-nhl-should-increase-size-goal.html

Pajamah

Lowetide: Actually, DSF excused himself, which was a class thing to do.

A single fleck of gold dropped into a sea of excrement.

Good riddance.

Gayfish

LadiesloveSmid:
Some nice UFA wingers this summer.

What if you traded Eberle for Hamonic and were able to replace him with Hudler? Okposo?

Other way around and I do it. Sign okposo then trade eberle. Could do the same thing with stamkos.

Pajamah

Fog of Warts: Loved this.The lamppost probably likes this too.I’ve heard many lampposts—the kind who aren’t fixated on space—can read upside down.Useful skill for a lamppost.Especially when you’re trying not to look down some fat drunk’s ass crack—no matter how hard you flicker, they just don’t seem to receive the message “move along buddy, your car keys are simply not here!”—and you definitely don’t want to think about all the “missing” kittens, over some of whose gory remains you personally administered last rites.

Now I want to run outside and paste an upside-down poster on the nearest naughty lamp post reading, in part, “conditions of street arrest; A) you are required to reside at a fixed station known to and approved by the court; B) you are required to avert your gaze when presented with loose-fitting halter tops; C) wolf-buzzing/humming/zapping is absolutely prohibited, even at women with plenitudinous eye paint; D) … Z) this notice composed of new material only, do not remove under penalty of law.”

I’ll probably choose some lamp close to the seashore.

“Nooooooooo, not the seagulls!”

“Too bad, sucker, you should have thought about that before you committed your crime.”

As my dear old deceased Grandad would say to me when I was a petulant young child, spouting off who knows what…

“What are you on about?”

Gayfish

Lowetide: Actually, DSF excused himself, which was a class thing to do.

I still think it was a jekyll and hyde thing. He is the one asking the RE questions too isn’t he?

LadiesloveSmid

Some nice UFA wingers this summer.

What if you traded Eberle for Hamonic and were able to replace him with Hudler? Okposo?

LoDog

Ca$h-McMoney!:
LoDog,

Sam Gagner.

We’re gonna put the C on him.

If you are going to put the C on him, put it on top of his head. Maybe he won’t be such a hobbit then.

jimmers2

AsiaOil,

This seems like an interesting idea but wouldn’t simply making the crossbar higher penalize a smaller, agile goaltender who uses the butterfly (as they all do)? I have no idea of the results or of goaltending, I just like the idea of rewarding the Hasek style of goaltending over the Brick Wall. And skill over systems in general.

Ca$h-McMoney!

LoDog,

Sam Gagner.

We’re gonna put the C on him.

LoDog

AsiaOil,

Care to provide any examples of 4 million dollar players that can bring Eberle’s offence and are “well rounded” players?

leadfarmer

AsiaOil:
Want a visual of the problem? Nik Backstrom versus Terry Sawchuk

Backstrom
http://stmedia.startribune.com/images/ows_142215195945920.jpg

Sawchuk
http://i1.wp.com/thehockeywriters.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/sawchukT12.jpg

I always enjoy this picture to illustrate the same point
https://twitter.com/syckhockey/status/453253297923948545

I would be a big fan of raising the crossbar 4 inches and the net wider by 2 inches for next season. The NHLPA will fight a lot of the equipment changes under “safety banner”

New Improved Darkness

Woodguy: Thanks for letting my tape my posters on your lamppost LT.

Loved this. The lamppost probably likes this too. I’ve heard many lampposts—the kind who aren’t fixated on space—can read upside down. Useful skill for a lamppost. Especially when you’re trying not to look down some fat drunk’s ass crack—no matter how hard you flicker, they just don’t seem to receive the message “move along buddy, your car keys are simply not here!”—and you definitely don’t want to think about all the “missing” kittens, over some of whose gory remains you personally administered last rites.

Now I want to run outside and paste an upside-down poster on the nearest naughty lamp post reading, in part, “conditions of street arrest; A) you are required to reside at a fixed station known to and approved by the court; B) you are required to avert your gaze when presented with loose-fitting halter tops; C) wolf-buzzing/humming/zapping is absolutely prohibited, even at women with plenitudinous eye paint; D) … Z) this notice composed of new material only, do not remove under penalty of law.”

I’ll probably choose some lamp close to the seashore.

“Nooooooooo, not the seagulls!”

“Too bad, sucker, you should have thought about that before you committed your crime.”

who

godot10: It’s close, and I’m probably on the minority side, and opposite the thinking of Chiarelli and McLellan, but Ithink McDavid is better and more dangerous with Pouliot than with Maroon.I think Pouliot is a better player on the rush than Maroon, and McDavid is better rush player than a cycle player, and I like playing players to their strengths, so I play him with Pouliot.

I want to push the pace against the big division rivals.They are big.Tire the suckers out.Maroon can’t keep up as well on the rush as Pouliot but is better in the cycle game.

Assuming McDavid is paired with a RW (Eberle or wishful thinking Laine), then I would use Pouliot or Maroon based on the matchup.If the game degenerates into a cycle game, use Maroon.If one can push the pace, use Pouliot.

I agree. I think Maroon will struggle to keep up with MacDavid for a full season. I would like to see him with Drai. I think those two could create havoc for other teams off the cycle. I also don’t think we should just assume Maroon will be a huge producer next year. Its probably 50/50 that he turns into a 25 goal scorer. He could just as easily end up playing 4th line wing like he did in Anaheim.

N64

"Steve Smith": Ricki actually is what the knuckle-draggers imagine statheads to be.

~ I thought Ricki actually is a bear typing on a real big keyboard just like that stathead G-Money imagines. Last time I believe anything G-Money proves. ~

godot10

Ca$h-McMoney!:
Almost every projected lineup I see has maroon separated from McD.

I get that it was a small sample size, but he was on a 41 goal pace.

You’ve got to figure they at least try to have him pick up where he left off.

It’s close, and I’m probably on the minority side, and opposite the thinking of Chiarelli and McLellan, but I think McDavid is better and more dangerous with Pouliot than with Maroon. I think Pouliot is a better player on the rush than Maroon, and McDavid is better rush player than a cycle player, and I like playing players to their strengths, so I play him with Pouliot.

I want to push the pace against the big division rivals. They are big. Tire the suckers out. Maroon can’t keep up as well on the rush as Pouliot but is better in the cycle game.

Assuming McDavid is paired with a RW (Eberle or wishful thinking Laine), then I would use Pouliot or Maroon based on the matchup. If the game degenerates into a cycle game, use Maroon. If one can push the pace, use Pouliot.

bendelson

AsiaOil,

Well, they would certainly have to stay on top of goalie mask sizes, otherwise it wouldn’t be long until we saw ‘Dark Helmet’ sized facial protection for the goalers.

dustrock

AsiaOil:
Current cross-bar height is only 4 feet and raising it 6 inches really only gets us back to the 60s where average NHL height was quite a bit less than 6 feet tall. Hell even in the 1980s Messier was considered “big” at 6 ft and 200 lbs – now he would be Taylor Hall average.

Maybe the composite sticks make up the gap if you do 6 inches.

Truth

Gerta Rauss: If Toronto wins any 1 of the 3 lottery positions, and any other non playoff team not named the Oilers wins the other 2 lottery positions, Edmonton would pick 4th.

If the 3 lottery winners are not named Toronto or Edmonton, the Oilers select 5th

Thanks!

In the meantime (waiting while hoping someone knew the answer) I did find a site that had the odds and some information I was looking for, albeit not for the exact question I had.

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

Turns out the Oilers odds are:
Top 3 pick: 39.1%
4th overall: 35.2%
5th overall: 25.8%

Edit: They have a 100.1% stake in the lottery I guess.

AsiaOil

Current cross-bar height is only 4 feet and raising it 6 inches really only gets us back to the 60s where average NHL height was quite a bit less than 6 feet tall. Hell even in the 1980s Messier was considered “big” at 6 ft and 200 lbs – now he would be Taylor Hall average.

bendelson:
AsiaOil,

6-12″??
Wow.
That’s an enormous difference.
I’d hate to be in front of the net when Weber tries to go bar down from the point.

AsiaOil

Well I’ve said my piece on Eberle in the 2013 draft thread a couple of days ago:

https://lowetide.ca/2016/04/16/reviewing-the-2013-draft-crazy-trade-included/

Ebs is a good little player but he’s obviously got his flaws and hasn’t really improved since his “career year” 5 years ago – in fact his ES scoring rate has dropped every year since then. His boxcars (which are admittedly nice) are driven by tons of primo ES and PP ice time as evidenced by his much less impressive points per 60 numbers (both ES and PP).

We can replace Ebs offense for $4 million, and if we do it right, will get a much more well rounded player in the bargain. We have elite centers and don’t need to saddle them with covering for defensive liabilities that limit their own offense. I want solid two way wingers that support our elite centers – because reality is – a fire hydrant placed at the edge of the crease will score 30 with CMD.

Won’t bore y’all with any more…..

Gayfish

To think this time last year, LT was in good enough spirits to let DSF post again. Didn’t last long before he had to relegate him back to the recesses of his mind.

dustrock

PunkInDrublic,

Great user name.

PunkInDrublic

AsiaOil:
Want a visual of the problem? Nik Backstrom versus Terry Sawchuk

Backstrom
http://stmedia.startribune.com/images/ows_142215195945920.jpg

Sawchuk
http://i1.wp.com/thehockeywriters.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/sawchukT12.jpg

To add to your point Asia….

http://ingoalmag.com/news/corey-hirsch-outlines-possible-equipment-changes/

Pretty staggering the difference between current and proposed.

bendelson

AsiaOil,

6-12″??
Wow.
That’s an enormous difference.
I’d hate to be in front of the net when Weber tries to go bar down from the point.

dustrock

AsiaOil:
Defensive systems, improvements in goalie technique, equipment size and goalie size have all contributed to the decrease in scoring. Hard to make systems “worse” in the NHL so you are left with the size issues. Got caught up watching highlights of all games in all series yesterday – and what struck me was the percentage of goals scored “top corner on glove or blocker side unless a one-timer was let go before the goalie was set. The increase in goalie height and equipment size plus butterfly has effectively sealed off 90% of the net – top corner is all that’s open.

The solution is pretty easy in my mind – raised the crossbar a good 6-12 inches to compensate for the 6-5 giants now in NHL nets. This would also make the butterfly far less effective as there would be a good 12-18 inches of open net under the cross-bar. Also decrease goalie equipment size which has nothing to do with safety and is all about legal cheating. I don’t support making the net wider as goalies have not gotten any “fatter” aside from the fixable equipment issues.

Raise the cross-bar.

Great idea, I’m all for this.

Re Chia and trading for D – I hear about Chiarelli and Snow already discussing Hamonic coming in to last year’s draft, and I hear Chiarelli and Murray talking about the Pat Maroon trade, and I get the sense he has a bunch of contingent deals worked out well in advance.

Seems like a straight-up kinda thing “we’re interested in upgrading D, we’re looking at Player X on your team.”

Murray specifically said Maroon was the type of player Chia had previously told him he was interested in, so they were able to make the deal quickly.

Gonna be an interesting draft this year.

AsiaOil
AsiaOil

Defensive systems, improvements in goalie technique, equipment size and goalie size have all contributed to the decrease in scoring. Hard to make systems “worse” in the NHL so you are left with the size issues. Got caught up watching highlights of all games in all series yesterday – and what struck me was the percentage of goals scored “top corner on glove or blocker side unless a one-timer was let go before the goalie was set. The increase in goalie height and equipment size plus butterfly has effectively sealed off 90% of the net – top corner is all that’s open.

The solution is pretty easy in my mind – raised the crossbar a good 6-12 inches to compensate for the 6-5 giants now in NHL nets. This would also make the butterfly far less effective as there would be a good 12-18 inches of open net under the cross-bar. Also decrease goalie equipment size which has nothing to do with safety and is all about legal cheating. I don’t support making the net wider as goalies have not gotten any “fatter” aside from the fixable equipment issues.

Raise the cross-bar.

leadfarmer:
Caramel Batman,

I’m in favor of anything that will make the goalies react to a shot instead of automatically going into the butterfly.Time to make the nets taller and a little wider.Reward the more athletic goalies instead of giants stuffed in net