GET BACK

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers have traded away a lot of their last two drafts and the prospect cupboard is decidedly bare.

TRADED PICKS

2014

  • No. 33 (Ivan Barbashev) to the St. Louis Blues in the David Perron trade.
  • No. 63 (Dominec Turgeon) to the Los Angeles Kings in the Ben Scrivens trade.
  • No. 93 (Nick Magyar) to the Toronto Maple Leafs in the Mike Brown trade.
  • No. 123 (Matthew Berkovitz) to the Anaheim Ducks in the Viktor Fasth trade.
  • No. 137 (Tyler Bird) to the Columbus Blue Jackets in the Nikita Nikitin trade.

2015

  • No. 16 (Mathew Barzal) to the NY Islanders in the Griffin Reinhart trade.
  • No. 33 (Mitchell Stephens) to the NY Islanders in the Griffin Reinhart trade.
  • No. 57 (Jonas Siegenthaler) to the NY Rangers in the Cam Talbot trade.
  • No. 64 (Dennis Yan) to the Anaheim Ducks in the Viktor Fasth trade.
  • No. 79 (Sergey Zborovskiy) to the NY Rangers in the Cam Talbot trade.
  • No. 86 (Mike Robinson) to the San Jose Sharks as compensation for Todd McLellan.
  • No. 94 (Adam Musil) to the St. Louis Blues in the Magnus Paajarvi trade.
  • No. 107 (Christian Wolanin) traded to the Ottawa Senators in the Eric Gryba trade.
  • No. 184 (Adam Huska) to the NY Rangers in the Cam Talbot trade.

This list becomes a bit misleading, as Edmonton did acquire some picks who can help in the future. From the listed trades above, Edmonton procured picks and players (the No. 15 pick that became Mathew Barzal was part of the David Perron and Griffin Reinhart deal). I would list Zack Kassian, Zack Nagelvoort, Griffin Reinhart, Cam Talbot, Caleb Jones, Ziyat Paigin and other picks as part of the return from the names above.

paigin svoboda

One of the avenues available to Peter Chiarelli this summer is dealing more draft picks for immediate help. I don’t think that is a good idea, unless good young players are available who are still in their entry-level deals (and under control). The top 20 prospects are updated on this blog at Christmas and on the day after draft weekend, but I have decided to make an exception to show just how shallow the talent pool really is for Edmonton.

  • Players over 50 games graduate (a long list, including Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Brandon Davidson, others).
  • Players who have been traded no longer appear (Anders Nilsson).
  • List is based on potential and gives zero weight to being close to NHL-ready.
  • Previous ranking in brackets (previous ranking is from Winter 2015)
  • This list likes offense.

The Oilers system right now has about five tiers (imo):

  1. Connor McDavid
  2. Wild card in Ziyat Paigin
  3. The contenders for NHL complementary roles (Khaira-Slepyshev-Reinhart-Brossoit)
  4. A promising group with some flaws (Bear-Jones, etc) who will try (or are trying) to become contenders for NHL complementary roles
  5. The rest

Folks, it is not nearly enough. Not close. We can’t expect the 2010 list (Hall, Eberle, Paajarvi, Dubnyk, Petry, Davidson etc) but the current group is going to need a lot of help this summer at the draft.

LOWETIDE TOP 20 OILERS PROSPECTS, APRIL 2016

  1. (1) C Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers (45, 16-32-48). Fantastic talent gave Oilers fans a glimpse of what is to come, but the gales of November came early. Generational talent.
  2. (15) D Ziyat Paigin, Kazan Ak Bars and Sochi HC (45, 9-19-28). Paigin’s progress this season has been incredible, to the point where he is a lock to be near the top of the prospect list even after the draft. Big (6.06, 210) and effective. NHL equivalency is 41 points Big man, big talent?
  3. (12) C Jujhar Khaira, Edmonton Oilers (15, 0-2-2) and Bakersfield Condors (49, 10-17-27). A very encouraging season from the big forward (he is 6.03, 214), very impressive in both cities. Khaira has good speed, meaning he is somewhat unique on this list (among big forwards). Rugged C with some skill.
  4. (4) W Anton Slepyshev, Edmonton Oilers (11, 0-1-1) and Bakersfield Condors (49, 13-8-21). He had a nice run in training camp and early in the regular season, but struggled and then was injured in his AHL time. Recovered later in the minor league season (finished up 18, 6-5-11) should be able to establish himself as a scorer at this level next year. Skill winger with size, not a lock to become an NHL top 6F.
  5. (6) G Laurent Brossoit, Edmonton Oilers (5, 3.61 .873) and Bakersfield Condors (31, 2.66 .920). Had another strong AHL season and his first NHL game was outstanding. Faded afterward in his audition, may require another AHL season. They like him. Emerging goaltender.
  6. (5) D Griffin Reinhart, Edmonton Oilers (29, 0-1-1) and Bakersfield Condors (30, 2-8-10). He continued his development in both pro leagues, and may do the same thing next season. Big man who has defensive ability, needs to mature. Developing defenseman.
  7. (9) RD Ethan Bear, Seattle Thunderbirds (69, 19-46-65). Delivered a terrific season offensively, reports have him improving defensively. Long road to go, but he does seem to have some imagination with the puck (and a great shot). Promising defensive prospect.
  8. (11) C Bogdan Yakimov, Bakersfield Condors (36, 5-10-15) and Nizhnekamsk Neftekhimik (11, 3-1-4). A giant (6.05, 232) center, he would seem to be a useful player when he develops, but the offense didn’t spike in year two and speed is a concern (both items separating him from the other Russian prospect). Big  C should fit new Oilers template well. 
  9. (13) D Caleb Jones, Portland Winterhawks (72, 10-45-55). Speed and size are his calling card, and if this offense is real Jones could be an absolute steal. Better skater than Bear, less creativity with the puck and less defensive acumen. Still a long road for both but this was an encouraging season on many levels. Appears to have a complete skill set.
  10. (23) LD Jordan Oesterle, Edmonton Oilers (17, 0-5-5) and Bakersfield Condors (44, 4-21-25). He impressed the hell out of me with his speed in year one, and with his speed and progress in year two. I think he might make it. Wheels 
  11. (29) L Josh Winquist, Bakersfield Condors (35, 8-22-30). He isn’t really an Oilers prospect, but the truth is his numbers shine brighter than a lot of the drafted kids who play in Bakersfield. Sign the man.
  12. (18) D Dillon Simpson, Bakersfield Condors (57, 4-16-20) Ended the season with a decent offensive run—18, 2-6-8. Simpson is a quiet prospect, you have to pay close attention to get much information. He is progressing as a defenseman. Very difficult player to assess, as was Brandon Davidson. Slow progress for steady defenseman.
  13. (14) C Kyle Platzer, Bakersfield Condors (48, 6-11-17). I think it is difficult to peg him after this season. He has shown well in many ways, but the boxcars are shy and there isn’t any buzz at all about him. For a franchise desperate for forwards with motor skills, you would think he would be getting a push. Two-way center under the radar.
  14. (16) D William Lagesson, UMass-Amherst (27, 2-5-7). Mobile defender impressed Oilers fans at the world juniors, and looks like his defensive skills are the greatest part of his game. Promising defensive defenseman.
  15. (17) D Joey Laleggia, Bakersfield Condors (63, 8-19-27). Posted the best offensive numbers among Condors rookies this season. Laleggia can move the puck and has creativity, the defensive game is going to be his issue. He can scoot. Offensive defenseman with rover rising.
  16. (19) R Greg Chase, Bakersfield Condors (19, 1-6-7) and Norfolk Admirals (43, 18-19-37). He saw more ECHL than AHL, we will see if it was to his benefit in the next 12 months. He has a unique skill set, should get a full shot in 2016-17. Agitating winger with offense.
  17. (20) RD John Marino, Tri-City Storm (56, 5-25-30) A smooth skater with a range of skills, we are miles away from knowing him as a player. All of the indicators look good, plenty of good arrows. Puck-moving defenseman with wheels.
  18. (25) R Tyler Pitlick. I will be the last to give up on him, this young man has a terrible time staying healthy long enough to be counted on. Still, he has talent. Rugged checker.
  19. (40) C Marco Roy, Bakersfield Condors (42, 8-12-20). A strong half-season of two-way play may have revived his status as a prospect. I don’t think he did enough to get an NHL contract, could be surprised. Two-way C.
  20. (21) D David Musil, Bakersfield Condors (67, 3-11-14). Big man is an impressive shutdown defender at the AHL level. Stay-at-home defender.

All is not lost. Edmonton has some incredible talent at the NHL level and the group under 26 rivals any team in the game:

  • Age 18 (2015-16 age) Connor McDavid
  • Age 19 (2015-16 age) Leon Draisaitl
  • Age 20 (2015-16 age) Darnell Nurse
  • Age 21 (2015-16 age) Nail Yakupov, Griffin Reinhart, Jujhar Khaira, Anton Slepyshev
  • Age 22 (2015-16 age) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Oscar Klefbom, Laurent Brossoit, Adam Clendening
  • Age 23 (2015-16 age) Taylor Hall, Jordan Oesterle
  • Age 24 (2015-16 age) Brandon Davidson, Zack Kassian, Iiro Pakarinen, Anton Lander
  • Age 25 (2015-16 age) Jordan Eberle

This is all good. However, as you can see no one is with Eberle, only Oesterle is with Hall and no single year has more than the Nuge-Klefbom combination. Edmonton needs a lot of the kids in the 21-25 cluster to cash and the odds do not favor that result. The McDavid draft year looks good despite all the traded picks, and the year behind him needs to be grand. I don’t think it wise to deal a bunch of picks this year—especially for players making real money with only a few years left to free agency.

Whenever we discuss these prospects, the conversation inevitably heads towards scouting and drafting. Definitely a part of it, but I think development is a major issue and needs to be examined. The AHL Prospects site offers us some encouragement—these prospects played more this season and the veterans played less. Let me give you a couple of examples:

Encouraging signs, even if they are not the exact numbers the trend appears to be in a good direction. Peter Chiarelli needs to make sure these kids are playing—if they fail, that’s one thing, but not giving prospects playing time is as dumb as dirt.

2011 draft

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy, fun show today with a variety of guests. Fluid show for lots of reasons but tune in 10 on TSN 1260 and join the fun! Scheduled to appear:

  • Former NHL player Darcy Tucker. NHL playoffs and what is he doing now?
  • Jonathan Willis from the Cult of Hockey and Oilers Nation. Defense and how to get it.
  • Marcel Eden from The Summit Sports Collectibles Show. Always a big event, this year’s special guests will be of great interest to Oilers fans.
  • Guy Flaming, Pipeline Show. WHL and U18s update.
  • Brad Gagnon, Bleacher Report. NFL draft and what are my Eagles going to do?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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Jaxon

Professor Q,

I hope so. His NHLE for the whole season was 41 points but his NHLe since going to Sochi was 48 points! That is amazing. In last year’s draft only Eichel and McDavid scored higher and he’s on D! And he’s huge and was known as a shutdown Defender previously. Wow. Doing that as a 20 yr old in the 2nd best league in the world has to project him as an impact player in the future. There doesn’t really seem to be a deficiency in his game. Reports have him as aggressive with good skating too. 3rd highest scorer on his team as a 20 yr old D. If he gets anywhere close to that potential, he may even challenge Klefbom and Nurse for top pair left side. 1st pick of the draft, a generational talent in McDavid and 3rd last pick of the draft a potential Pronger in Paigin could conceivably wind up being the 2 best players in the 2015 draft. Kudos to the scouts/Chiarelli on this one.

JimmyV1965

Ducey: This is the philosophy of teams like the Browns, Cubs etc.

They can’t wait any longer so they mortgage their future just to try and make the playoffs.Two years later they are back to square one with a bare prospect cupboard.

They don’t stick to the plan and just keep changing phases.It never gets them anywhere.

Its a lack of patience.

The Cubs are finally good because they have a good GM who has built his team thru the draft.

IMO the Oilers are not far away.Even one decent RH defenseman, a backup goaler, a Laine or Matthews, and some health to key players and I thinking they should be pretty much even in the GD’s.If they can build their prospect system along the way (the Islanders have done this well), they should be set for a long run of success.

Baseball is an absolutely horrible analogy for hockey. They each have three minor league teams. The draft is much larger and free agency is much different. Just sayin.

who

Evilas:
If I were GM what would I do

Post #5

Here is the roster (In this scenario Laine is drafted at #2):

Rightwing: S. Stamkos ($9,500,000) – P. Laine ($925,000) – L. Stempniak ($1,700,000) – Z. Kassian ($1,275,000) – I. Pakarinen ($875,000)
Centre: C. McDavid ($925,000) – L. Draisaitl ($925,000) – C. Lazar ($894,167) – M. Letestu ($1,800,000)
Leftwing: M. Hoffman ($4,500,000) – P. Maroon ($1,500,000) – C. Stewart ($1,850,000) – J. Sallinen ($792,500)

DEFENSE (8)
Right: E. Karlsson ($6,500,000) – T. Hamonic ($3,857,143) – D. Severson ($605,833) – K. Holzer ($850,000)
Left: O. Klefbom ($4,167,000) – A. Sekera ($5,500,000) – B. Davidson ($1,425,000) – B. Strait ($850,000)

GOALTENDER (2)
C. Talbot ($4,166,667) – C. Anderson ($4,200,000)

BUYOUTS
A. Ference ($1,083,333)

DETAILS
Roster Size: 23
NHL Salary Cap: $71,400,000
Cap Hit: $60,666,643
Cap Space: $10,733,357

Good god, I know we need to make a few moves but I don’t think we need to change out the whole roster

Water Fire

Fog of Warts:
There’s one other thing I want to add about the Detroit model.

Without actually checking this, my suspicious is that Detroit hasn’t had big armloads of top 16 picks for a long time now.

At this tranche, one doesn’t obtain many picks who can birdie a par 5 using a sand wedge.

The problem of having to bring along a prospect whose physical tools are so elite he can dominate the AHL swinging the wrong club disappears in the natural course of sustained winnerhood.

Pulling Datsyuk and Zetterberg out of a rabbit hat deep in the draft provides plenty of guidance on how to become Detroit, and not so much on how to behave like Detroit.

Does the Detroit model have anything useful to say about top ten draft picks?Colour me skeptical.

The model for the NHL is like any other business. Everything is in a continual state of flux, making the right decision given the situation is what matters.

Right now the greatest Oiler need is veteran cover. If that happens, in my best Walken voice, watch out!

€√¥£€^$

kinger_OIL,

Thanks Kinger!

This blog has helped me to frame things and I have tweaked my thinking over the last few months, but what really stands out (and has forever) is that this team desperately needs a PP QB AND RHD. Maybe, just maybe Ottawa presents the opportunity….

The other critical pieces are RHD and G depth and retaining good young pieces like Nurse and Reinhart, because we really don’t know who they will be for another 3 years or so. This roster needs players to push up from the prospect pool so that there is ideally good supporting players coming up on a continual basis. We can’t rely on signing vets and we can’t just rely on young talent, there needs to be a succession plan, and ideally for each position a plan A, B and C.

So hopefully thoughtful moves are made that addresses all needs including development and adding to the prospect pool. I am trusting that Chiarelli has learned from his past mistakes and will position this team for sustained success without creating a Cap Hell.

I am excited to see how this plays out!

commonfan29

godot10: Tapestry was sort of a plagiarism of the original Star Trek’s “The City on the Edge of Forever”.
…a young Joan Collins.

After reading this take, I am forced to consider whether Dallas Eakins might actually be a great coach.

jonrmcleod

Doug McLachlan,

Thanks! I didn’t write the articles on Demers and Hamonic, but I’ll pass along the info.

Doug McLachlan

jonrmcleod: ***SPAM ALERT***My latest post on The Oilers Rig is a bit different.“The McDavid Tapestry: Would You Change the Past?”http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/04/mcdavid-tapestry-change-decisions-past/

Combining Hockey and Star Trek will always get my approval. Great read. Also enjoyed the Hamonic and Demers articles.

On Demers, you have his AAV wrong. SJ is picking up some of the tab but his actual salary is $3.65M this year and an AAV of $3.4M as per General Fanager.

http://www.generalfanager.com/players/679

Hockey Buddha

Ducey,

We’ve been in the same phase of the rebuild for years now. It’s daft to have as much young talent as we have and not surround them with the right people. This team has Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl, Eberle, Nurse, Klefbom, and McDavid. What exactly are we waiting for? Surround those players with what they need to be successful.

I don’t think that we are saying anything all that different anyhow. I think we have another summer with everything on the table (including our draft picks, we disagree here) to make the NHL team better. Once our NHL team is competitive (hopefully after the summer), we can begin to re-stock the farm system and retain our picks and properly develop players. I don’t think fans or our young players can stomach–nor should they have to–another year of losing. McDavid said that it was a very difficult year, losing so much. That–in itself–is enough for me. This ship needs to turn around. Everything has to be on the table to make that happen.

Ducey

Hockey Buddha:
Ducey,

Not saying that I agree with it, I just I think that it’s where we’re at as an organization, on the timeline of this rebuild.Six or seven years ago, I would have been onside with you, but frankly, I’m tired of waiting and looking to the future.Yes, I’ve lost patience in the rebuild.You haven’t?

We need to improve the on-ice product at the NHL level now, not 3-4 years from now.There is no more time left in this “rebuild.”There hasn’t been for a few years now.Only once we ice a competitive NHL team, can we have the luxury of properly retaining and developing our draft picks.

Until we make our team competitive, we’ll need to to mortgage some of our future.It’s a reality.On the bright side, we currently have the youngest team in the NHL; it’s not like we have a lot of aging veterans we need to replace.

I’m not saying that I’m happy with it; it’s just an observation of the present state of affairs.This team needs to start winning now.Any assets that we have available to us need to be on the table to acquire what we need to make this NHL squad competitive.We have a window of opportunity.The clock is ticking on Connor McDavid.

This is the philosophy of teams like the Browns, Cubs etc.

They can’t wait any longer so they mortgage their future just to try and make the playoffs. Two years later they are back to square one with a bare prospect cupboard.

They don’t stick to the plan and just keep changing phases. It never gets them anywhere.

Its a lack of patience.

The Cubs are finally good because they have a good GM who has built his team thru the draft.

IMO the Oilers are not far away. Even one decent RH defenseman, a backup goaler, a Laine or Matthews, and some health to key players and I thinking they should be pretty much even in the GD’s. If they can build their prospect system along the way (the Islanders have done this well), they should be set for a long run of success.

New Improved Darkness

There’s one other thing I want to add about the Detroit model.

Without actually checking this, my suspicious is that Detroit hasn’t had big armloads of top 16 picks for a long time now.

At this tranche, one doesn’t obtain many picks who can birdie a par 5 using a sand wedge.

The problem of having to bring along a prospect whose physical tools are so elite he can dominate the AHL swinging the wrong club disappears in the natural course of sustained winnerhood.

Pulling Datsyuk and Zetterberg out of a rabbit hat deep in the draft provides plenty of guidance on how to become Detroit, and not so much on how to behave like Detroit.

Does the Detroit model have anything useful to say about top ten draft picks? Colour me skeptical.

Quinlan

*** SPAM ALERT ***

With Canadian fans tuning out the playoffs and beginning early preparations for the draft, I take a look at Finnish Phenom, Patrik Laine and offer an early scouting report on the player.

Finn (Part One)

Thanks to all who take the time to read, and thanks to Lowetide for the opportunity to post here.

*** END SPAM ***

Hockey Buddha

Ducey,

Not saying that I’m happy with it, I just I think that it’s where we’re at as an organization, on the timeline of this rebuild. Six or seven years ago, I would have been onside with you, but frankly, I’m tired of waiting and looking to the future. Yes, I’ve lost patience in the rebuild. You haven’t?

We need to improve the on-ice product at the NHL level now, not 3-4 years from now. There is no more time left in this “rebuild.” There hasn’t been for a few years now. Only once we ice a competitive NHL team, can we have the luxury of properly retaining and developing our draft picks.

Until we make our team competitive, we’ll need to to mortgage some of our future. It’s a reality. On the bright side, we currently have the youngest team in the NHL; it’s not like we have a lot of aging veterans we need to replace.

I’m not saying that I’m happy with it; it’s just an observation of the present state of affairs. This team needs to start winning now. Any assets that we have available to us need to be on the table to acquire what we need to make this NHL squad competitive. We have a window of opportunity. The clock is ticking on Connor McDavid.

godot10

Chiarelli can’t wait till July 1st to first the defense. Demers is the LAST option if he can’t get anything done sooner.

Chiarelli acquired Reinhart before he knew whether he had Sekera, and months before he knew Davidson was an NHL defensemen. When Reinhart was acquired, all he had was Klefbom and Nurse on the left side.

So money for Demers is the desperate last option…it is not anything one can rely on. It would be foolhardy to wait for July 1. The moves for D have to come sooner.

Since Anaheim and Winnipeg know offer sheets will be coming, they will want to make hockey deals for Vatanen and Trouba before the draft, where pick this year will be part of the compensation.

And Snow will want to make the Hamonic deal before the draft, so he knows what work he has to do.
Ditto for Armstrong and Shattenkirk.

Ducey

According to sources, Caggiula has whittled down his list to include (in no particular order) Philadelphia, Edmonton, Ottawa, Vancouver, Chicago and Buffalo.

Caggiula is expected to visit the Oilers sometime next week, where a tour of Edmonton’s new arena will likely be part of the game plan, followed by stops in Vancouver and Ottawa. It is believed he will make a visit to all of the teams on his list before making a decision.

http://www.tsn.ca/talent/free-agent-caggiula-begins-making-nhl-rounds-1.474440

godot10

dustrock:
LT – do we revisit Seabrook as a hard target for Chiarelli if Chicago flames out early and has cap trouble next year?

Not saying I’d target him, but I do wonder if Chia would.

It is lunacy to pursue Seabrook with the contract he has, especially with an expansion draft upcoming. And ridiculous amounts of his 8 year contract are signing bonus money, which means any buyout is more like 80% of the remaining total than 67%.

godot10

jonrmcleod:
Jethro Tull,

Confession: I’m not a Star Trek fan. I got the idea to use the “Tapestry” episode from Rexlibris. I did like the episode though.

Tapestry was sort of a plagiarism of the original Star Trek’s “The City on the Edge of Forever”.

…a young Joan Collins.

Ducey

JimmyV1965: I wholeheartedly disagree with this. Lol. You can’t build a proper farm system until you take care of the NHL roster. Oilers need veteran leadership and players in the NHL. Only then will we stop bringing in nine new players every year. And until we keep the same roster every year, other than one or two tweaks, we can’t even begin to address the farm team.Only until we make this roster competitive can we start sending first round picks to the minors. We are at a different stage of development than the Leafs, for instance.We have a competitive team, with a few glaring holes, and need to address that immediately, even if it means trading a first round pick, which I don’t recall we have ever done.

The Oilers could sign Demers, trade Ebs for Hamonic, sign a UFA backup goalie and a winger, and not touch any of their draft picks.

NHL roster addressed. Farm system improved.

Ca$h-McMoney!

AsiaOil,

The good thing is we have more insight on the player than anyone outside of Dallas given his history with TMac. If we offer him big money it’s likely because TMac thinks he can use him consistently in a top 4 role. If someone outbids us it’s because TMac doesn’t see the value.

It’s not perfect but it beats going in blind.

AsiaOil

I’ve really soured on Demers unless he signs for something around what he makes now $3.65 million. I doubt that happens given the tightness in the RHD market. But there is no way I give $5 million a year for 5 years to a guy who has never scored more than 7 goals – even in his 19-20 year old junior season he only scored 9. He’s a #4 dman and I think Davidson will be a solid comparable as soon as the end of next season. Would you pay Davidson $5 million next season?

As for the draft. Either of the Finn wingers are beauties who would fit a CMD line like a glove, Snap them up. If we luck out and get #1 – trade down – and get a dman plus mid-first round pick and select a guy like Fabbro. If we are at #4 then things get interesting. We would probably get to pick the best 18 year old dman in the world and let him develop. The more I look at it – the more I agree with LTs list – Sergachev is interesting. He’s big, mobile as hell, great passer and super shot (both wrist and slap). The guy is the complete package – came on strong at the end of the year – and was the leading goal scorer by dmen in the entire OHL as a foreign rookie (finished 3rd overall in points). I think he may be the real deal and that goal scoring total is really impressive for a foreign rookie. He’s way more dynamic than Chychrun. Only issue I’d have with picking him is the stupid things the Oilers do with Russians – but if we are at #4 – I’d be pretty excited to have the opportunity to draft him as his draft year numbers line up a lot like Seth Jones (but more goal scoring).

Gayfish

Funny that we drafted overagers because we were afraid of signing all our prospects. Now we are trying to find college type guys to sign because we have no elfin prospects.

kinger_OIL

Evilas,

– Now that’s thinking out of box…

– The exercise you just did illustrates the potential change to this roster that is available: suspect changes look a lot more like yours than: “we just need two more D, and we are good to go”

GCW_69

That top twenty looks really ugly after McDavid, and if it wasn’t for injury he wouldn’t be there either.

Thanks for reminding us that trading too many picks has a consequence.

×× UPDATE **

Thinking about it a little more, if the Oilers had bought out Ference, not resigned Schultz and used that money on free agent defenders, and hit the value bin for a veteran forward or two, like PA Parenteau or Stempniak, the top of your list might include:

2) Leon Draisaitl
3) Darnell Nurse
4) Griffin Reinhart

and we might feel a little better about it.

Gayfish

I’m just glad Chia is around. Under the old regime, we would have drafted a projectable number 7 defensemen in the fourth round instead of picking up greba. Ditto Talbot. I’ll whine about Reinhart, but at least we seem to be drafting actual prospects again.

Alpine

This list says to me that despite some really great defensive prospects being available, there’s potential F for D trades on the horizon, a dearth of F prospects that would warrant picking a forward at the draft.

The decision is made pretty easily at picks 1-3, but at pick 4 it’s wide open. I still like Dubois the most at 4OV.

QMJHL F Comparables post-Crosby. I kept the list to higher picks who turned out or recent draftees (no Esposito or Paradis)

Brassard (late birthdate)
Draft-1 – 69 GP, 1.10 PPG
Draft yr – 58 GP, 2.00 PPG !!

Giroux
Draft -1 Junior A?
Draft yr – 69GP, 1.49 PPG

Voracek
Draft yr – 59 GP 1.46 PPG

Huberdeau
Draft -1: 61 GP, 0.57 PPG
Draft yr: 67 GP, 1.57 PPG

Couturier (late birthdate)
Draft -2: 58 GP, 0.53 PPG
Draft -1: 68 GP, 1.41 PPG
Draft yr: 58 GP, 1.66 PPG

Grigorenko
Draft yr: 59 GP, 1.44 PPG

MacKinnon:
Draft -1: 58 GP, 1.34 PPG
Draft yr: 44 GP, 1.70 PPG

Drouin:
Draft -1: 33 GP, 0.88 PPG
Draft yr: 49, GP, 2.14 PPG !!!

Mantha:
draft -1: 63GP, 0.81 PPG
Draft yr: 67 GP, 1.33 PPG (50 goals)

Dubois:
Draft -1: 54 GP, 0.83 PPG
Draft yr: 62 GP, 1.60 PPG

Best comparables for Dubois look like Huberdeau and Couturier, while he wasn’t far off MacKinnon’s draft year either. PLD had a better draft year than Giroux or Voracek but those guys were Q rookies.

I’d do Tkachuk but there’s too many OHL guys to compile, and there’s that London factor and riding shotgun with Marner that makes me curious of him. Dubois had Svechnikov to play with but he’s not Marner.

Professor Q

Jaxon,

Intriguing prospect for Bakersfield next year?

€√¥£€^$

If I were GM what would I do

Post #5

Here is the roster (In this scenario Laine is drafted at #2):

Rightwing: S. Stamkos ($9,500,000) – P. Laine ($925,000) – L. Stempniak ($1,700,000) – Z. Kassian ($1,275,000) – I. Pakarinen ($875,000)
Centre: C. McDavid ($925,000) – L. Draisaitl ($925,000) – C. Lazar ($894,167) – M. Letestu ($1,800,000)
Leftwing: M. Hoffman ($4,500,000) – P. Maroon ($1,500,000) – C. Stewart ($1,850,000) – J. Sallinen ($792,500)

DEFENSE (8)
Right: E. Karlsson ($6,500,000) – T. Hamonic ($3,857,143) – D. Severson ($605,833) – K. Holzer ($850,000)
Left: O. Klefbom ($4,167,000) – A. Sekera ($5,500,000) – B. Davidson ($1,425,000) – B. Strait ($850,000)

GOALTENDER (2)
C. Talbot ($4,166,667) – C. Anderson ($4,200,000)

BUYOUTS
A. Ference ($1,083,333)

DETAILS
Roster Size: 23
NHL Salary Cap: $71,400,000
Cap Hit: $60,666,643
Cap Space: $10,733,357

€√¥£€^$

If I were GM what would I do

Post #4

UFA’s

•Steven Stamkos was signed as a UFA for 3 years at $9,500,000 (or Okposo)
•Mike Hoffman was signed as an RFA for 5 years at $4,500,000.
•Lee Stempniak was signed as a UFA for 2 years at $1,700,000.
•Zack Kassian was signed as an RFA for 2 years at $1,275,000.
•Korbinian Holzer was signed as a UFA for 2 years at $850,000.
•Brian Strait was signed as a UFA for 1 year at $850,000.
•Iiro Pakarinen was signed as an RFA for 2 years at $875,000.
•Chris Stewart was signed as a UFA for 2 years at $1,850,000.

€√¥£€^$

If I was GM what would I do

Post #3

Remaining deals to clear roster for UFA’s, cap space and bring in more RHD and G prospects and more bullets for Bob Green.

DET 1. Russo, R (RHD) + 2016 6th round pick

For 1.Lander, A

ANA 1. Montour, B (RHD) 2.Boyle, K (G) + Additional Details: 2016 4th round pick

For 1.Pouliot, B.

MIN 2017 6th round pick For 1.Hendricks, M

CAR 2016 6th round pick For 1.Korpikoski, L

ChiliChunk

RexLibris: Not to quibble, but I think LT’s favourite part of being an Oiler fan is moments like Eberle’s toe-drag around Sarich

Wasn’t it Ian White (who then called the goal a fluke)?

JimmyV1965

Ducey: Couldn’t disagree more.

If you have been paying attention to LT’s recent posts you would see that a large part of the problem is not developing players from within.

That’s on development, and poor drafting, but its hard to develop a player you didn’t pick because you gave up the draft pick.

The 2014 and 2015 drafts cost them some picks that would be starting to come on line.

You believe they must mortgage the future to get into the playoffs.What then?

Well, you will need cheap in-house options to keep the ball rolling.

And sorting thru the chaff of undrafted players isn’t going to do it.

I wholeheartedly disagree with this. Lol. You can’t build a proper farm system until you take care of the NHL roster. Oilers need veteran leadership and players in the NHL. Only then will we stop bringing in nine new players every year. And until we keep the same roster every year, other than one or two tweaks, we can’t even begin to address the farm team. Only until we make this roster competitive can we start sending first round picks to the minors. We are at a different stage of development than the Leafs, for instance. We have a competitive team, with a few glaring holes, and need to address that immediately, even if it means trading a first round pick, which I don’t recall we have ever done.

wheatnoil

G Money:
wheatnoil,

Not so much scoring expectations by line, but rather actual contributions by line by team.“The top line for the Oilers contributed 87 goals” and on for the other lines, and for the other teams.

So you could compare and say the fourth line for Team A contributed 50 goals while for the Oilers they contributed 10 goals (or whatever).

I’m positive I’ve seen that somewhere … but it would be quite hard to do, due to the fluidity of lines (which is why if I do it myself I’ll just bucket it to Top 6 and Bottom 6 with generous interpretations of each).

Maybe I was hallucinating!

Wait… I did see that! Somewhere half way through the season… so you weren’t hallucinating… or there is some folie a deux going on.

Edit: Was it this?
http://www.pensburgh.com/2015/2/17/8044475/depth-scoring-from-forwards-across-the-nhl

€√¥£€^$

If I was GM what would I do

Post #2

Move out Yak and Eberle for capable RHD and bolster G prospect Depth:

NYI 1. Hamonic, T + 2. 2016 6th round pick

For: 1.Eberle, J.

NJ 1.Blackwood, M 2.Severson, D Additional Details: 2016 4th round pick

For: 1.Yakupov, N. Additional Details: Rights to David Musil

Why would NJ do this? They have Cory Schneider and 2 other very good G prospects. Musil is a Bobby Holik’s nephew and plays a style suitable for success in NJ. Severson seems to be in the coaches doghouse and likely needs a change of scenery.

€√¥£€^$

If I was GM what would I do

Post # 1

So, if Chiarelli was to blow-up this team, what would it look like? I would hope he addresses the RHD PP need and stocks the prospect cupboards as much as possible. As well bring in players that will support McDavid for several years to come.

I think that perhaps he might dip into familiar territory for the big splash, so how about Ottawa, what do they have that we might want. well, how about Karlsson, how does that grab you?

OTT 1.Karlsson, E 2.Lazar, C 3.Anderson, C Additional Details: Rights to Mike Hoffman

For: 1.Nugent-Hopkins, R. 2.Hall, T. 3.Fayne, M. 4.Brossoit, L. 5.Simpson, D.

Additional Details: 2017 1st round pick, 2018 1st round pick, Caleb Jones

I think this would be enough for Ottawa to pull the trigger, what do you think?

JimmyV1965

Hockey Buddha:
Until the roster holes on the big club are adequately addressed (fixed reasonably adequately hopefully this summer), drafting and developing players is a secondary concern.We are in a situation that is far from ideal, but, unfortunately, it’s where we are at.The only bright spot is that the number of roster holes we have is diminishing to a fixable amount, and we now, finally, have the surplus assets available that we can shed in order to properly fill those holes.

Once the NHL roster is adequately addressed (read: a competitive NHL team),then the thoughts towards the team’s future and properly maintaining our farm system can begin.Drafting and developing players and looking toward the future is key for the long-term viability of an NHL team, but we need to arrive at a place where that is even conceivable.I don’t think that we’re there yet (at a point where we can realistically look to the long-term future), but we are much closer.Organizationally, right now, we are in a position of living moment-to-moment.Long-term thinking only comes only once we’ve stopped up the leaky boat; only then is it safe–or appropriate–to look for land.

If Edmonton brings in the right 2-3 players this summer to properly address its defense, and can get a little better in some other places, it can fix our leaky boat.This is not insurmountable given the assets that Edmonton possesses.

Chiarelli may again this summer use a combination of draft picks along with a few players to move the team forward.We have a few prospects within our system and some solid defenseman from the 2015 draft who should be AHL ready soon.Mining the college ranks and finding late-blooming, undrafted players has to be a priority, until the big club is properly sorted out and we can begin to look to the future.

Very well put. Definitely could not have said it better myself.

RexLibris

Ca$h-McMoney!:
RexLibris,

Given the ties to the coach I figured Philly was probably a lock.But then again he was at the game the other night and got to watch Philly fans at their best….so that make it interesting.

What a bloody disgrace that was.

It might only have been 10% of the fans, but that would still give you well over 1000 idiots, more than enough to sewer it for the rest of the group.

And the players weren’t helping with some of their idiocy.

Apparently Bellemare has a hearing today. Suspect that will be an easy one because he isn’t likely critical to the Flyers’ playoff hopes nor have a “history of winning”.

Totally different incidents, but the temptation to weigh what he gets vs Keith’s late-season suspension will be there for many.

RexLibris

LT – thinking of this issue of lack of Oilers’ prospect depth in visual terms, I’m wondering how we might break it down.

As I see it we have Identifying Talent (finding players in junior), Drafting (an extension of the previous but with an eye to taking a prospect at the right spot), Development (devoting time and “at-bats” to prospects under a supportive coaching system) and Role of Management (identifying and valuing internal talent).

Now we could apply relative importance of each of those to a prospect in a pie-chart sort of way. It might only be forensic in nature because we can’t evaluate some things until they happen (ie: putting a value on the Role of Management) but maybe over time we’d be able to hash out some trends and failures.

I think we know that the Oilers’ farm system seems to over-invest in TOI for AHL veterans, but this may also be a chicken and egg problem for the team when they draft players like Musil and Moroz ahead of others who could have likely made the NHL roster by now.

Ca$h-McMoney!

RexLibris,

Given the ties to the coach I figured Philly was probably a lock. But then again he was at the game the other night and got to watch Philly fans at their best…. so that make it interesting.

Jaxon

https://twitter.com/ChunkletsHockey/status/708394996492206080

“Patrick C ‏@ChunkletsHockey Mar 11
#KHL: HK Sochi coach V. Butsayev says to keep Ziyat Paigin at the team this off-season “will be difficult.” (1/2)”

RexLibris

Professor Q:
Any thoughts on the Caligula player from North Dakota?

I’ve taken to calling him Little Boots, a play on the origin of the name Caligula.

From what little I’ve read he’s still deciding. No word on whether he does or does not bear a resemblance, passing or otherwise, to Malcolm McDowell though. Because if he did that would be so awesome. More than a little creepy, but talk about putting some fear in your opponent.

Ducey

Hockey Buddha:
Until the roster holes on the big club are adequately addressed (fixed reasonably adequately hopefully this summer), drafting and developing players is a secondary concern.We are in a situation that is far from ideal, but, unfortunately, it’s where we are at.The only bright spot is that the number of roster holes we have is diminishing to a fixable amount, and we now, finally, have the surplus assets available that we can shed in order to properly fill those holes.

Once the NHL roster is adequately addressed (read: a competitive NHL team),then the thoughts towards the team’s future and properly maintaining our farm system can begin.Drafting and developing players and looking toward the future is key for the long-term viability of an NHL team, but we need to arrive at a place where that is even conceivable.I don’t think that we’re there yet (at a point where we can realistically look to the long-term future), but we are much closer.Organizationally, right now, we are in a position of living moment-to-moment.Long-term thinking only comes only once we’ve stopped up the leaky boat; only then is it safe–or appropriate–to look for land.

If Edmonton brings in the right 2-3 players this summer to properly address its defense, and can get a little better in some other places, it can fix our leaky boat.This is not insurmountable given the assets that Edmonton possesses.

Chiarelli may again this summer use a combination of draft picks along with a few players to move the team forward.We have a few prospects within our system and some solid defenseman from the 2015 draft who should be AHL ready soon.Mining the college ranks and finding late-blooming, undrafted players has to be a priority, until the big club is properly sorted out and we can begin to look to the future.

Couldn’t disagree more.

If you have been paying attention to LT’s recent posts you would see that a large part of the problem is not developing players from within.

That’s on development, and poor drafting, but its hard to develop a player you didn’t pick because you gave up the draft pick.

The 2014 and 2015 drafts cost them some picks that would be starting to come on line.

You believe they must mortgage the future to get into the playoffs. What then?

Well, you will need cheap in-house options to keep the ball rolling.

And sorting thru the chaff of undrafted players isn’t going to do it.

G Money

wheatnoil,

Not so much scoring expectations by line, but rather actual contributions by line by team. “The top line for the Oilers contributed 87 goals” and on for the other lines, and for the other teams.

So you could compare and say the fourth line for Team A contributed 50 goals while for the Oilers they contributed 10 goals (or whatever).

I’m positive I’ve seen that somewhere … but it would be quite hard to do, due to the fluidity of lines (which is why if I do it myself I’ll just bucket it to Top 6 and Bottom 6 with generous interpretations of each).

Maybe I was hallucinating!

LMHF#1

I missed the Darcy Tucker mention in the post.

Would have told you to cross check him in the neck for me but I doubt you haul a hockey stick to work.

HATED that guy. Just a cheap shot chicken on the ice. No excuse for it either as he had the talent to score.

Professor Q

Any thoughts on the Caligula player from North Dakota?

New Improved Darkness

I’m just never going to get on board with this “slow and steady” story massage.

When the “slow and steady” process produces a dud, we simply shovel the blame over to the scouting side of the ledger.

No wonder everyone (but me) loves slow and steady: it can’t ever be wrong.

We have another name for things can’t ever be falsified: metaphysics. Also known as “real thinking is hard, man”.

For the guys who can’t cheat their development path at the AHL level (guys lacking the “get out of jail free” physically of Drai, Nurse, or even Oesterle) the slow and steady method is risk free.

Guys like Drai and Nurse definitely can cheat their proper development at the AHL level, and then end up without the right tools to survive long term in the NHL when their physical gifts alone prove insufficient to dominate opponents (all of whom are gifted and rugged) night after night over a long, grinding season.

Even Connor had to admit that the consistency and physicality of his opponents at the NHL level was a big adjustment. He had to do a little spring cleaning on his overstuffed bag of tricks, before he properly settled in.

After “spring cleaning” does Nurse get to keep “rambunctious over-commit followed by hustling back into the play” or not?

I guarantee that AHL spring cleaning won’t decide the matter, unless Nurse chooses to hear the muse speak inside his own mind.

NHL spring cleaning might actually force him to discard a false friend.

Insufficient iodine causes goitre. Long droughts cause blameaholism. We’ve become so immune to the cost of blame, we no longer even notice how the “slow and steady” mantra contains a hard kernel of blame-shifting onto the scouting department.

Last year, once Drai was sent down, he was by then completely disabused of the notion he could simply bull his way to success at the NHL level. Apparently, following his “belated” demotion, he went through some late-night spring cleaning of the soul, and worked like a man possessed at bulking out his burly calling card with some career-enabling secondary finesse.

We were either astute (those who are not new here can look that word up) or fortunate—or barely skirted the apocalypse—that Leon responded to his forty game sojourn in the NHL desert in the right spirit.

As with many problems in life, the solution is more Swedish twins. One Klefbom is shunted onto “slow and steady” while the other Klefbom rides the hot rail, bouncing up and down between levels as he stumbles unpredictably toward finding NHL consistency in the use of NHL caliber tools. Metaphysics move over, we’ve got data now (because injury, maybe we should request Klefbom octuplets—come on, Sweden, you’re holding out on us, we know you can deliver).

Best of all, this could potentially scratch an item off my bucket list, i.e. to see 7 of 9 printed on the back of an NHL jersey (duh, Swedish octuplets are a baker’s octuplet, everyone knows that).

wheatnoil

G Money:
At some point over the last few seasons, I know I’ve seen posts (Twitter probably) that show goal contribution by line (e.g. “Line 1 scored 87 goals, Line 2 scored 66 goals” etc ) for various teams.But I can’t recall where the heck it was.

Does anyone know if that was that a one time thing, or if it is actually available on a site somewhere?

Want to look at goal differential by Top 6 / Bottom 6 for the Oilers vs the rest of the league, and would rather not do the data wrangling from scratch if I don’t have to.

Are you referring to this?
http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/analysis/2015/5/31/8693313/first-line-nhl-production-analysis

There’s also this study that goes through the forward positions individually over the last few years.
https://www.pattisonave.com/reasonable-scoring-expectations-right-wings/

Richard S.S.

A Prospect who plays 41 or more NHL games and logs 750 or more minutes, must be re-evaluated. If he’s staying up, he’s no longer a Prospect but an NHL Player. Prospect can be sent down (usually often) for many reason. NHL players are sent down for injury related issues and Cap related issues due to GM incompetency issues. Connor McDavid is an NHL Center, not a prospect.

Ca$h-McMoney!

LT,

The list you provided showing the picks we gave away is a nice reminder that we need to keep our cool with respect to the value of picks.

I remember when STL ended up getting Barbashev with that 33rd pick in addition to MPS. Some members of the community were losing their minds, as it seemed like he would be a guy to contribute to an NHL squad early and often. A couple of years later he’s finished one sub 0.5ppg AHL season. Not to say he won’t be a good player, but rather that even a player that looks that good as a 17/18 year old junior player isn’t a sure thing to contribute right away or ever. We simply don’t know.

Safe to say that the last few years of Perron > MPS + Barbeshev, even though Perron has his issues.

dustrock

Snowman: I don’t think Chia will be acquiring any 30 year old D men signed for 8 more years at $6.875M. I don’t think Chia would acquire a Dman for 8 years at 50% of that cap hit over age 30. Lotta, lotta hockey miles on that old body.

That contract is not great now. In 4 years I bet its an absolute killer.

I agree completely and wanted to stay away from Seabrook originally because it was going to be an anchor.

But sometimes teams make decisions about players based on “pedigree” and “winning attitudes” and this is the kind of thing that worries me.