GET BACK

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers have traded away a lot of their last two drafts and the prospect cupboard is decidedly bare.

TRADED PICKS

2014

  • No. 33 (Ivan Barbashev) to the St. Louis Blues in the David Perron trade.
  • No. 63 (Dominec Turgeon) to the Los Angeles Kings in the Ben Scrivens trade.
  • No. 93 (Nick Magyar) to the Toronto Maple Leafs in the Mike Brown trade.
  • No. 123 (Matthew Berkovitz) to the Anaheim Ducks in the Viktor Fasth trade.
  • No. 137 (Tyler Bird) to the Columbus Blue Jackets in the Nikita Nikitin trade.

2015

  • No. 16 (Mathew Barzal) to the NY Islanders in the Griffin Reinhart trade.
  • No. 33 (Mitchell Stephens) to the NY Islanders in the Griffin Reinhart trade.
  • No. 57 (Jonas Siegenthaler) to the NY Rangers in the Cam Talbot trade.
  • No. 64 (Dennis Yan) to the Anaheim Ducks in the Viktor Fasth trade.
  • No. 79 (Sergey Zborovskiy) to the NY Rangers in the Cam Talbot trade.
  • No. 86 (Mike Robinson) to the San Jose Sharks as compensation for Todd McLellan.
  • No. 94 (Adam Musil) to the St. Louis Blues in the Magnus Paajarvi trade.
  • No. 107 (Christian Wolanin) traded to the Ottawa Senators in the Eric Gryba trade.
  • No. 184 (Adam Huska) to the NY Rangers in the Cam Talbot trade.

This list becomes a bit misleading, as Edmonton did acquire some picks who can help in the future. From the listed trades above, Edmonton procured picks and players (the No. 15 pick that became Mathew Barzal was part of the David Perron and Griffin Reinhart deal). I would list Zack Kassian, Zack Nagelvoort, Griffin Reinhart, Cam Talbot, Caleb Jones, Ziyat Paigin and other picks as part of the return from the names above.

paigin svoboda

One of the avenues available to Peter Chiarelli this summer is dealing more draft picks for immediate help. I don’t think that is a good idea, unless good young players are available who are still in their entry-level deals (and under control). The top 20 prospects are updated on this blog at Christmas and on the day after draft weekend, but I have decided to make an exception to show just how shallow the talent pool really is for Edmonton.

  • Players over 50 games graduate (a long list, including Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Brandon Davidson, others).
  • Players who have been traded no longer appear (Anders Nilsson).
  • List is based on potential and gives zero weight to being close to NHL-ready.
  • Previous ranking in brackets (previous ranking is from Winter 2015)
  • This list likes offense.

The Oilers system right now has about five tiers (imo):

  1. Connor McDavid
  2. Wild card in Ziyat Paigin
  3. The contenders for NHL complementary roles (Khaira-Slepyshev-Reinhart-Brossoit)
  4. A promising group with some flaws (Bear-Jones, etc) who will try (or are trying) to become contenders for NHL complementary roles
  5. The rest

Folks, it is not nearly enough. Not close. We can’t expect the 2010 list (Hall, Eberle, Paajarvi, Dubnyk, Petry, Davidson etc) but the current group is going to need a lot of help this summer at the draft.

LOWETIDE TOP 20 OILERS PROSPECTS, APRIL 2016

  1. (1) C Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers (45, 16-32-48). Fantastic talent gave Oilers fans a glimpse of what is to come, but the gales of November came early. Generational talent.
  2. (15) D Ziyat Paigin, Kazan Ak Bars and Sochi HC (45, 9-19-28). Paigin’s progress this season has been incredible, to the point where he is a lock to be near the top of the prospect list even after the draft. Big (6.06, 210) and effective. NHL equivalency is 41 points Big man, big talent?
  3. (12) C Jujhar Khaira, Edmonton Oilers (15, 0-2-2) and Bakersfield Condors (49, 10-17-27). A very encouraging season from the big forward (he is 6.03, 214), very impressive in both cities. Khaira has good speed, meaning he is somewhat unique on this list (among big forwards). Rugged C with some skill.
  4. (4) W Anton Slepyshev, Edmonton Oilers (11, 0-1-1) and Bakersfield Condors (49, 13-8-21). He had a nice run in training camp and early in the regular season, but struggled and then was injured in his AHL time. Recovered later in the minor league season (finished up 18, 6-5-11) should be able to establish himself as a scorer at this level next year. Skill winger with size, not a lock to become an NHL top 6F.
  5. (6) G Laurent Brossoit, Edmonton Oilers (5, 3.61 .873) and Bakersfield Condors (31, 2.66 .920). Had another strong AHL season and his first NHL game was outstanding. Faded afterward in his audition, may require another AHL season. They like him. Emerging goaltender.
  6. (5) D Griffin Reinhart, Edmonton Oilers (29, 0-1-1) and Bakersfield Condors (30, 2-8-10). He continued his development in both pro leagues, and may do the same thing next season. Big man who has defensive ability, needs to mature. Developing defenseman.
  7. (9) RD Ethan Bear, Seattle Thunderbirds (69, 19-46-65). Delivered a terrific season offensively, reports have him improving defensively. Long road to go, but he does seem to have some imagination with the puck (and a great shot). Promising defensive prospect.
  8. (11) C Bogdan Yakimov, Bakersfield Condors (36, 5-10-15) and Nizhnekamsk Neftekhimik (11, 3-1-4). A giant (6.05, 232) center, he would seem to be a useful player when he develops, but the offense didn’t spike in year two and speed is a concern (both items separating him from the other Russian prospect). Big  C should fit new Oilers template well. 
  9. (13) D Caleb Jones, Portland Winterhawks (72, 10-45-55). Speed and size are his calling card, and if this offense is real Jones could be an absolute steal. Better skater than Bear, less creativity with the puck and less defensive acumen. Still a long road for both but this was an encouraging season on many levels. Appears to have a complete skill set.
  10. (23) LD Jordan Oesterle, Edmonton Oilers (17, 0-5-5) and Bakersfield Condors (44, 4-21-25). He impressed the hell out of me with his speed in year one, and with his speed and progress in year two. I think he might make it. Wheels 
  11. (29) L Josh Winquist, Bakersfield Condors (35, 8-22-30). He isn’t really an Oilers prospect, but the truth is his numbers shine brighter than a lot of the drafted kids who play in Bakersfield. Sign the man.
  12. (18) D Dillon Simpson, Bakersfield Condors (57, 4-16-20) Ended the season with a decent offensive run—18, 2-6-8. Simpson is a quiet prospect, you have to pay close attention to get much information. He is progressing as a defenseman. Very difficult player to assess, as was Brandon Davidson. Slow progress for steady defenseman.
  13. (14) C Kyle Platzer, Bakersfield Condors (48, 6-11-17). I think it is difficult to peg him after this season. He has shown well in many ways, but the boxcars are shy and there isn’t any buzz at all about him. For a franchise desperate for forwards with motor skills, you would think he would be getting a push. Two-way center under the radar.
  14. (16) D William Lagesson, UMass-Amherst (27, 2-5-7). Mobile defender impressed Oilers fans at the world juniors, and looks like his defensive skills are the greatest part of his game. Promising defensive defenseman.
  15. (17) D Joey Laleggia, Bakersfield Condors (63, 8-19-27). Posted the best offensive numbers among Condors rookies this season. Laleggia can move the puck and has creativity, the defensive game is going to be his issue. He can scoot. Offensive defenseman with rover rising.
  16. (19) R Greg Chase, Bakersfield Condors (19, 1-6-7) and Norfolk Admirals (43, 18-19-37). He saw more ECHL than AHL, we will see if it was to his benefit in the next 12 months. He has a unique skill set, should get a full shot in 2016-17. Agitating winger with offense.
  17. (20) RD John Marino, Tri-City Storm (56, 5-25-30) A smooth skater with a range of skills, we are miles away from knowing him as a player. All of the indicators look good, plenty of good arrows. Puck-moving defenseman with wheels.
  18. (25) R Tyler Pitlick. I will be the last to give up on him, this young man has a terrible time staying healthy long enough to be counted on. Still, he has talent. Rugged checker.
  19. (40) C Marco Roy, Bakersfield Condors (42, 8-12-20). A strong half-season of two-way play may have revived his status as a prospect. I don’t think he did enough to get an NHL contract, could be surprised. Two-way C.
  20. (21) D David Musil, Bakersfield Condors (67, 3-11-14). Big man is an impressive shutdown defender at the AHL level. Stay-at-home defender.

All is not lost. Edmonton has some incredible talent at the NHL level and the group under 26 rivals any team in the game:

  • Age 18 (2015-16 age) Connor McDavid
  • Age 19 (2015-16 age) Leon Draisaitl
  • Age 20 (2015-16 age) Darnell Nurse
  • Age 21 (2015-16 age) Nail Yakupov, Griffin Reinhart, Jujhar Khaira, Anton Slepyshev
  • Age 22 (2015-16 age) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Oscar Klefbom, Laurent Brossoit, Adam Clendening
  • Age 23 (2015-16 age) Taylor Hall, Jordan Oesterle
  • Age 24 (2015-16 age) Brandon Davidson, Zack Kassian, Iiro Pakarinen, Anton Lander
  • Age 25 (2015-16 age) Jordan Eberle

This is all good. However, as you can see no one is with Eberle, only Oesterle is with Hall and no single year has more than the Nuge-Klefbom combination. Edmonton needs a lot of the kids in the 21-25 cluster to cash and the odds do not favor that result. The McDavid draft year looks good despite all the traded picks, and the year behind him needs to be grand. I don’t think it wise to deal a bunch of picks this year—especially for players making real money with only a few years left to free agency.

Whenever we discuss these prospects, the conversation inevitably heads towards scouting and drafting. Definitely a part of it, but I think development is a major issue and needs to be examined. The AHL Prospects site offers us some encouragement—these prospects played more this season and the veterans played less. Let me give you a couple of examples:

Encouraging signs, even if they are not the exact numbers the trend appears to be in a good direction. Peter Chiarelli needs to make sure these kids are playing—if they fail, that’s one thing, but not giving prospects playing time is as dumb as dirt.

2011 draft

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy, fun show today with a variety of guests. Fluid show for lots of reasons but tune in 10 on TSN 1260 and join the fun! Scheduled to appear:

  • Former NHL player Darcy Tucker. NHL playoffs and what is he doing now?
  • Jonathan Willis from the Cult of Hockey and Oilers Nation. Defense and how to get it.
  • Marcel Eden from The Summit Sports Collectibles Show. Always a big event, this year’s special guests will be of great interest to Oilers fans.
  • Guy Flaming, Pipeline Show. WHL and U18s update.
  • Brad Gagnon, Bleacher Report. NFL draft and what are my Eagles going to do?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

78 comments
0

You may also like

0 0 vote
Article Rating
78 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Jethro Tull

We have a good complement of prospects. Or rather we have NHL players that should still be developing in the lower leagues. It’s not their fault the previous regime dealt vets for magic beans, thus rushing most of the prospects into the NHL before their time. Not only before their time, but also playing above their current ability.

I hear people saying that guys like Nurse and Drai should be sent down to ‘dominate’ and when they are and don’t, these people are disappointed.

I don’t care if a player like Nurse is sent down and doesn’t ‘dominate’, whatever they mean by that. What I care about is that they are sent down, they are put in a position to succeed, they don’t struggle, and they concentrate on the development plan given to them by the coaching staff.

Chia seems to be on the right track. With Reinhart, he was kept in the AHL and told to concentrate on his decision making. With Nurse, unfortunately, there wasn’t anybody better to keep him out of the squad. Caught between icing your best team and doing what’s right for the prospect in the long term.

BTW, Davidson, even if he stays at his current level of development, is found money.

Quinlan

Paigin has been a revelation this year. Simply incredible what he’s done and in one of the toughest leagues re: scoring.

I have to admit – Slepyshev’s performance in the AHL has toned down my expectations for Paigin. I’d argue that both players might look better at the NHL level than the AHL, which is another animal entirely.

Great post, LT!

jonrmcleod

***SPAM ALERT***

My latest post on The Oilers Rig is a bit different.

“The McDavid Tapestry: Would You Change the Past?”

http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/04/mcdavid-tapestry-change-decisions-past/

Ducey

I don’t know LT.

I love watching prospects, but unless a guy is an impact player, you can pick up a UFA in the bargain bin who will likely be a better player than most of the guys on that list (or most teams’ lists).*

*Maybe not the Dmen or the goalies (who take some time to matriculate) but certainly with the forwards.

I’d also quibble with your #2 slot for the big Russian. We know next to nothing about him other than he has some decent boxcars and a big body. I’d guess he is miles away from being ready for the NHL. I’d have him down around #8.

kinger_OIL

– Awesome post LT: don’t lie: this is your favorite part of being an Oil fan and blogger: examining, exploring, evaluating the up and comers: your a dreamer at heart! This was great synopsis.

– I don’t have any reference from other teams farms, so I take you at your word that we aren’t looking good. It’s a relative thing though.

– On one hand we have a bunch of young prospects in the NHL (because we suck, and get high picks, and we play them in the NHL because we suck and don’t have better players that block)

– On the other hand: its not like we have any prospects marinating in the minors that are potential difference makers in the NHL.

– Griff as the only prospect that has a possible chance of being a top-4 D in the next 3 years. Untill Ziyat comes over and plays in AHL he’s just hope.

– No potential top-9 forwards either

– The rest of the prospects, lots of years of progression required, or replacement level and cheap (of course teams need some of those).

– Need some of Simpson, Musil, Sleppy, Jar Jar, Yaki to fit into bottom of roster. That’s success

wheatnoil

Given the lack of forward prospects bubbling under, there may be some real benefit to giving Joey Leggs games on the wing like he got this year.

Also, yes, sign Winquist!

Aitch

AS important as the draft is, is it losing some of it’s importance with the emergence of the US college scene as a legitimate source of players? 10 years ago, there weren’t multiple players coming out of college each season that a) hadn’t been drafted but now look like legit prospects or b) decided to skip on the team that drafted them and hit free agency. Now, that said, the draft is still the best place to get high-end talent, but I do wonder if the rest of the draft is as important? Once you get outside of that first round, it really is a gamble.

When you consider that there is basically the equivalent of three NHL teams drafted in the first two rounds each year, is the old adage of “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush” more true than ever. If you can get those young players who have already shown something for a lower draft pick, it just might be the best way to go.

Once you get past the best players, often times it is development that makes the difference. So, you could probably fill your team with college grads, cast-offs from other teams, European vets who want a shot at the NA game and still produce those replacement level players that you need to get you through an NHL season.

That said, there’s something still very satisfying about your team turning a late round pick into NHL gold. Doesn’t happen often, but when it does… BOOM!

sumaclab

Its all about the lottery. Where we pick . Then we can decide who and if were using the picks/s.There are so many ways this off season can go. Between the FAs and RFAs and the draft and trades. The draft is imo where Chia will able to chart the direction of this franchise for the future.

kinger_OIL

jonrmcleod,

– That was such a fun read Jon!

JimmyV1965

I would prefer we trade our first round pick, if it’s outside the top three, rather than sign a FA like Demers. Free agents are always over valued and tesms are usually disappointed with the signing, and not just the Oilers At best, we can hope Demers ends up like Sekera, a dman who delivers mediocre value for his contract.

To improve our defence in a meaningful way requires trades and for teams in cap hell, our best assets are draft picks. Like all problems with this team, our weak farm system Is the result of mismanagement. We can trade some of our picks and still build a good farm system. It just requires good management and scouting.

Jethro Tull

jonrmcleod:
***SPAM ALERT***

My latest post on The Oilers Rig is a bit different.

“The McDavid Tapestry: Would You Change the Past?”

http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/04/mcdavid-tapestry-change-decisions-past/

Great read Jon.

One question: Were the terrorists that shot Picard a Tribble rights movement?

jonrmcleod

Jethro Tull,

Confession: I’m not a Star Trek fan. I got the idea to use the “Tapestry” episode from Rexlibris. I did like the episode though.

digger50

I appreciate this attention to prospects and all aspects of the Oiler organization as opposed to only focusing on the NHL roster. Always interesting.

I can see the future gap in regards to onboarding and developing talent. But are we really in bad shape? Add one more top 18 y old in there from this years draft and do we not have enough young talent to survive for several years? If so, which is better: using the draft picks to restock the system or using the draft picks to help bring older, more stable NHL players in to assist the young players presently on the NHL roster?

Professor Q

Aitch,

I will not think so. Too many other sources with other talent than the U.S. college system. It’s too small in the grande scheme of things.

I only hope the Canadian University system could be as good, though… :'(

dustrock

And McDavid only gets shoehorned in through injury. That is one weak prospects list.

This is why you have to take skill players in Rounds 3 and on (well, Round 1 and on). No long shot coke machines who might turn into Milan Lucic.

On McDavid – can someone remind me of the CBA clause that prevented us from signing Tkachev after training camp 2 years ago? I thought it was because he had played in a professional league (KHL).

So it applies to a draft-eligible player, but not Panarin for the Calder? Okay then. Maybe a video review of the KHL will clear things up for the NHL.

Professor Q

dustrock:
And McDavid only gets shoehorned in through injury.That is one weak prospects list.

This is why you have to take skill players in Rounds 3 and on (well, Round 1 and on).No long shot coke machines who might turn into Milan Lucic.

On McDavid – can someone remind me of the CBA clause that prevented us from signing Tkachev after training camp 2 years ago?I thought it was because he had played in a professional league (KHL).

So it applies to a draft-eligible player, but not Panarin for the Calder?Okay then.Maybe a video review of the KHL will clear things up for the NHL.

I think it had something to do with his age and how he was still Draft Eligible, so it was sort of like how Florida tried to draft Ovechkin in 2003.

dustrock

LT – do we revisit Seabrook as a hard target for Chiarelli if Chicago flames out early and has cap trouble next year?

Not saying I’d target him, but I do wonder if Chia would.

RexLibris

kinger_OIL: – Awesome post LT: don’t lie: this is your favorite part of being an Oil fan and blogger: examining, exploring, evaluating the up and comers: your a dreamer at heart! This was great synopsis.

Not to quibble, but I think LT’s favourite part of being an Oiler fan is moments like Eberle’s toe-drag around Sarich, or Nurse beating Hunter Smith into a pulp or hearing the collective groan of anguish from Flames’ fans when they watch Connor McDavid streak down the ice and pot two goals against their team.

Or at least that’s just my guess.

rickithebear

Ben Betker 6’6″ 220b draft +1 .405 age NHLE
68gm 6 EVG 14 EVA
Age NHLE 3 EVG 7 EVA
Top Def D for his Conference.

Plus minus progression.
draft (18) -21
Draft +1 (19) -3
Draft +2 (20) +19
Draft +3 (21) ECHL 49 gm -2; AHL 14gm -2
Draft +4 (22) ????????

Ethan Bear:
Draft Age NHLE .70
69gm 6 EVg 9 EVA +1
Age NHLE 5EVG 7 EVA

Draft +1 Age NHLE .48
68 gm 7 EVG 21 EVA +14
age NHLE 4 EVG 12 EVA

Caleb Jones
Draft +1 age NHLE .475
72gm 6 EVG 28 EVA +4
age NHLE 3 EVG 15 EVA

Hockey Buddha

Until the roster holes on the big club are adequately addressed (fixed reasonably adequately hopefully this summer), drafting and developing players is a secondary concern. We are in a situation that is far from ideal, but, unfortunately, it’s where we are at. The only bright spot is that the number of roster holes we have is diminishing to a fixable amount, and we now, finally, have the surplus assets available that we can shed in order to properly fill those holes.

Once the NHL roster is adequately addressed (read: a competitive NHL team), then the thoughts towards the team’s future and properly maintaining our farm system can begin. Drafting and developing players and looking toward the future is key for the long-term viability of an NHL team, but we need to arrive at a place where that is even conceivable. I don’t think that we’re there yet (at a point where we can realistically look to the long-term future), but we are much closer. Organizationally, right now, we are in a position of living moment-to-moment. Long-term thinking only comes only once we’ve stopped up the leaky boat; only then is it safe–or appropriate–to look for land.

If Edmonton brings in the right 2-3 players this summer to properly address its defense, and can get a little better in some other places, it can fix our leaky boat. This is not insurmountable given the assets that Edmonton possesses.

Chiarelli may again this summer use a combination of draft picks along with a few players to move the team forward. We have a few prospects within our system and some solid defenseman from the 2015 draft who should be AHL ready soon. Mining the college ranks and finding late-blooming, undrafted players has to be a priority, until the big club is properly sorted out and we can begin to look to the future.

Hockey Buddha

wheatnoil:
Given the lack of forward prospects bubbling under, there may be some real benefit to giving Joey Leggs games on the wing like he got this year.

Also, yes, sign Winquist!

I like that experiment; he might be more suited to the wing. It couldn’t hurt.

G Money

At some point over the last few seasons, I know I’ve seen posts (Twitter probably) that show goal contribution by line (e.g. “Line 1 scored 87 goals, Line 2 scored 66 goals” etc ) for various teams. But I can’t recall where the heck it was.

Does anyone know if that was that a one time thing, or if it is actually available on a site somewhere?

Want to look at goal differential by Top 6 / Bottom 6 for the Oilers vs the rest of the league, and would rather not do the data wrangling from scratch if I don’t have to.

Tapdog

JimmyV1965,

I think the issue is more that the Oilers continue to place players in positions where they will not be successful.

They are very poor at managing the assets they have and always seem to think they are smarter than everyone else and play players out of position because they know better. (ie: Cole etc)

I get that players need to have the ability to play up and down the line up at times but the Oilers expect players to continually do so?? Then they do not play well, the fan base roasts them for it and here we sit?

Unfortunately UFA status means overpay!! I think if Demers can be had at a modest overpay, he needs to be played in the lineup where he will have success.

Looking at LT’s post here…………. with all the Draft picks we have sent out the door, we need the odd freebie !

kinger_OIL

Tapdog,

Tap says: “I think the issue is more that the Oilers continue to place players in positions where they will not be successful”

– While that’s true, playing above ones ability is a nice way of saying a team sucks. If you don’t have top-line D, the guys you put in there are in over their head. That’s why the team sucks.

– Sometimes we forget that NHL is just a sport: with guys at a higher level than our backgrounds

dustrock

I like Demers and Hamonic but would prefer one of them, with a more offensive D “PP QB” added as well.

Snowman

dustrock:
LT – do we revisit Seabrook as a hard target for Chiarelli if Chicago flames out early and has cap trouble next year?

Not saying I’d target him, but I do wonder if Chia would.

I don’t think Chia will be acquiring any 30 year old D men signed for 8 more years at $6.875M. I don’t think Chia would acquire a Dman for 8 years at 50% of that cap hit over age 30. Lotta, lotta hockey miles on that old body.

That contract is not great now. In 4 years I bet its an absolute killer.

dustrock

Snowman: I don’t think Chia will be acquiring any 30 year old D men signed for 8 more years at $6.875M. I don’t think Chia would acquire a Dman for 8 years at 50% of that cap hit over age 30. Lotta, lotta hockey miles on that old body.

That contract is not great now. In 4 years I bet its an absolute killer.

I agree completely and wanted to stay away from Seabrook originally because it was going to be an anchor.

But sometimes teams make decisions about players based on “pedigree” and “winning attitudes” and this is the kind of thing that worries me.

Ca$h-McMoney!

LT,

The list you provided showing the picks we gave away is a nice reminder that we need to keep our cool with respect to the value of picks.

I remember when STL ended up getting Barbashev with that 33rd pick in addition to MPS. Some members of the community were losing their minds, as it seemed like he would be a guy to contribute to an NHL squad early and often. A couple of years later he’s finished one sub 0.5ppg AHL season. Not to say he won’t be a good player, but rather that even a player that looks that good as a 17/18 year old junior player isn’t a sure thing to contribute right away or ever. We simply don’t know.

Safe to say that the last few years of Perron > MPS + Barbeshev, even though Perron has his issues.

Richard S.S.

A Prospect who plays 41 or more NHL games and logs 750 or more minutes, must be re-evaluated. If he’s staying up, he’s no longer a Prospect but an NHL Player. Prospect can be sent down (usually often) for many reason. NHL players are sent down for injury related issues and Cap related issues due to GM incompetency issues. Connor McDavid is an NHL Center, not a prospect.

wheatnoil

G Money:
At some point over the last few seasons, I know I’ve seen posts (Twitter probably) that show goal contribution by line (e.g. “Line 1 scored 87 goals, Line 2 scored 66 goals” etc ) for various teams.But I can’t recall where the heck it was.

Does anyone know if that was that a one time thing, or if it is actually available on a site somewhere?

Want to look at goal differential by Top 6 / Bottom 6 for the Oilers vs the rest of the league, and would rather not do the data wrangling from scratch if I don’t have to.

Are you referring to this?
http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/analysis/2015/5/31/8693313/first-line-nhl-production-analysis

There’s also this study that goes through the forward positions individually over the last few years.
https://www.pattisonave.com/reasonable-scoring-expectations-right-wings/

New Improved Darkness

I’m just never going to get on board with this “slow and steady” story massage.

When the “slow and steady” process produces a dud, we simply shovel the blame over to the scouting side of the ledger.

No wonder everyone (but me) loves slow and steady: it can’t ever be wrong.

We have another name for things can’t ever be falsified: metaphysics. Also known as “real thinking is hard, man”.

For the guys who can’t cheat their development path at the AHL level (guys lacking the “get out of jail free” physically of Drai, Nurse, or even Oesterle) the slow and steady method is risk free.

Guys like Drai and Nurse definitely can cheat their proper development at the AHL level, and then end up without the right tools to survive long term in the NHL when their physical gifts alone prove insufficient to dominate opponents (all of whom are gifted and rugged) night after night over a long, grinding season.

Even Connor had to admit that the consistency and physicality of his opponents at the NHL level was a big adjustment. He had to do a little spring cleaning on his overstuffed bag of tricks, before he properly settled in.

After “spring cleaning” does Nurse get to keep “rambunctious over-commit followed by hustling back into the play” or not?

I guarantee that AHL spring cleaning won’t decide the matter, unless Nurse chooses to hear the muse speak inside his own mind.

NHL spring cleaning might actually force him to discard a false friend.

Insufficient iodine causes goitre. Long droughts cause blameaholism. We’ve become so immune to the cost of blame, we no longer even notice how the “slow and steady” mantra contains a hard kernel of blame-shifting onto the scouting department.

Last year, once Drai was sent down, he was by then completely disabused of the notion he could simply bull his way to success at the NHL level. Apparently, following his “belated” demotion, he went through some late-night spring cleaning of the soul, and worked like a man possessed at bulking out his burly calling card with some career-enabling secondary finesse.

We were either astute (those who are not new here can look that word up) or fortunate—or barely skirted the apocalypse—that Leon responded to his forty game sojourn in the NHL desert in the right spirit.

As with many problems in life, the solution is more Swedish twins. One Klefbom is shunted onto “slow and steady” while the other Klefbom rides the hot rail, bouncing up and down between levels as he stumbles unpredictably toward finding NHL consistency in the use of NHL caliber tools. Metaphysics move over, we’ve got data now (because injury, maybe we should request Klefbom octuplets—come on, Sweden, you’re holding out on us, we know you can deliver).

Best of all, this could potentially scratch an item off my bucket list, i.e. to see 7 of 9 printed on the back of an NHL jersey (duh, Swedish octuplets are a baker’s octuplet, everyone knows that).

Professor Q

Any thoughts on the Caligula player from North Dakota?

LMHF#1

I missed the Darcy Tucker mention in the post.

Would have told you to cross check him in the neck for me but I doubt you haul a hockey stick to work.

HATED that guy. Just a cheap shot chicken on the ice. No excuse for it either as he had the talent to score.

G Money

wheatnoil,

Not so much scoring expectations by line, but rather actual contributions by line by team. “The top line for the Oilers contributed 87 goals” and on for the other lines, and for the other teams.

So you could compare and say the fourth line for Team A contributed 50 goals while for the Oilers they contributed 10 goals (or whatever).

I’m positive I’ve seen that somewhere … but it would be quite hard to do, due to the fluidity of lines (which is why if I do it myself I’ll just bucket it to Top 6 and Bottom 6 with generous interpretations of each).

Maybe I was hallucinating!

Ducey

Hockey Buddha:
Until the roster holes on the big club are adequately addressed (fixed reasonably adequately hopefully this summer), drafting and developing players is a secondary concern.We are in a situation that is far from ideal, but, unfortunately, it’s where we are at.The only bright spot is that the number of roster holes we have is diminishing to a fixable amount, and we now, finally, have the surplus assets available that we can shed in order to properly fill those holes.

Once the NHL roster is adequately addressed (read: a competitive NHL team),then the thoughts towards the team’s future and properly maintaining our farm system can begin.Drafting and developing players and looking toward the future is key for the long-term viability of an NHL team, but we need to arrive at a place where that is even conceivable.I don’t think that we’re there yet (at a point where we can realistically look to the long-term future), but we are much closer.Organizationally, right now, we are in a position of living moment-to-moment.Long-term thinking only comes only once we’ve stopped up the leaky boat; only then is it safe–or appropriate–to look for land.

If Edmonton brings in the right 2-3 players this summer to properly address its defense, and can get a little better in some other places, it can fix our leaky boat.This is not insurmountable given the assets that Edmonton possesses.

Chiarelli may again this summer use a combination of draft picks along with a few players to move the team forward.We have a few prospects within our system and some solid defenseman from the 2015 draft who should be AHL ready soon.Mining the college ranks and finding late-blooming, undrafted players has to be a priority, until the big club is properly sorted out and we can begin to look to the future.

Couldn’t disagree more.

If you have been paying attention to LT’s recent posts you would see that a large part of the problem is not developing players from within.

That’s on development, and poor drafting, but its hard to develop a player you didn’t pick because you gave up the draft pick.

The 2014 and 2015 drafts cost them some picks that would be starting to come on line.

You believe they must mortgage the future to get into the playoffs. What then?

Well, you will need cheap in-house options to keep the ball rolling.

And sorting thru the chaff of undrafted players isn’t going to do it.

RexLibris

Professor Q:
Any thoughts on the Caligula player from North Dakota?

I’ve taken to calling him Little Boots, a play on the origin of the name Caligula.

From what little I’ve read he’s still deciding. No word on whether he does or does not bear a resemblance, passing or otherwise, to Malcolm McDowell though. Because if he did that would be so awesome. More than a little creepy, but talk about putting some fear in your opponent.

Jaxon

https://twitter.com/ChunkletsHockey/status/708394996492206080

“Patrick C ‏@ChunkletsHockey Mar 11
#KHL: HK Sochi coach V. Butsayev says to keep Ziyat Paigin at the team this off-season “will be difficult.” (1/2)”

Ca$h-McMoney!

RexLibris,

Given the ties to the coach I figured Philly was probably a lock. But then again he was at the game the other night and got to watch Philly fans at their best…. so that make it interesting.

RexLibris

LT – thinking of this issue of lack of Oilers’ prospect depth in visual terms, I’m wondering how we might break it down.

As I see it we have Identifying Talent (finding players in junior), Drafting (an extension of the previous but with an eye to taking a prospect at the right spot), Development (devoting time and “at-bats” to prospects under a supportive coaching system) and Role of Management (identifying and valuing internal talent).

Now we could apply relative importance of each of those to a prospect in a pie-chart sort of way. It might only be forensic in nature because we can’t evaluate some things until they happen (ie: putting a value on the Role of Management) but maybe over time we’d be able to hash out some trends and failures.

I think we know that the Oilers’ farm system seems to over-invest in TOI for AHL veterans, but this may also be a chicken and egg problem for the team when they draft players like Musil and Moroz ahead of others who could have likely made the NHL roster by now.

RexLibris

Ca$h-McMoney!:
RexLibris,

Given the ties to the coach I figured Philly was probably a lock.But then again he was at the game the other night and got to watch Philly fans at their best….so that make it interesting.

What a bloody disgrace that was.

It might only have been 10% of the fans, but that would still give you well over 1000 idiots, more than enough to sewer it for the rest of the group.

And the players weren’t helping with some of their idiocy.

Apparently Bellemare has a hearing today. Suspect that will be an easy one because he isn’t likely critical to the Flyers’ playoff hopes nor have a “history of winning”.

Totally different incidents, but the temptation to weigh what he gets vs Keith’s late-season suspension will be there for many.

JimmyV1965

Hockey Buddha:
Until the roster holes on the big club are adequately addressed (fixed reasonably adequately hopefully this summer), drafting and developing players is a secondary concern.We are in a situation that is far from ideal, but, unfortunately, it’s where we are at.The only bright spot is that the number of roster holes we have is diminishing to a fixable amount, and we now, finally, have the surplus assets available that we can shed in order to properly fill those holes.

Once the NHL roster is adequately addressed (read: a competitive NHL team),then the thoughts towards the team’s future and properly maintaining our farm system can begin.Drafting and developing players and looking toward the future is key for the long-term viability of an NHL team, but we need to arrive at a place where that is even conceivable.I don’t think that we’re there yet (at a point where we can realistically look to the long-term future), but we are much closer.Organizationally, right now, we are in a position of living moment-to-moment.Long-term thinking only comes only once we’ve stopped up the leaky boat; only then is it safe–or appropriate–to look for land.

If Edmonton brings in the right 2-3 players this summer to properly address its defense, and can get a little better in some other places, it can fix our leaky boat.This is not insurmountable given the assets that Edmonton possesses.

Chiarelli may again this summer use a combination of draft picks along with a few players to move the team forward.We have a few prospects within our system and some solid defenseman from the 2015 draft who should be AHL ready soon.Mining the college ranks and finding late-blooming, undrafted players has to be a priority, until the big club is properly sorted out and we can begin to look to the future.

Very well put. Definitely could not have said it better myself.

€√¥£€^$

If I was GM what would I do

Post # 1

So, if Chiarelli was to blow-up this team, what would it look like? I would hope he addresses the RHD PP need and stocks the prospect cupboards as much as possible. As well bring in players that will support McDavid for several years to come.

I think that perhaps he might dip into familiar territory for the big splash, so how about Ottawa, what do they have that we might want. well, how about Karlsson, how does that grab you?

OTT 1.Karlsson, E 2.Lazar, C 3.Anderson, C Additional Details: Rights to Mike Hoffman

For: 1.Nugent-Hopkins, R. 2.Hall, T. 3.Fayne, M. 4.Brossoit, L. 5.Simpson, D.

Additional Details: 2017 1st round pick, 2018 1st round pick, Caleb Jones

I think this would be enough for Ottawa to pull the trigger, what do you think?

€√¥£€^$

If I was GM what would I do

Post #2

Move out Yak and Eberle for capable RHD and bolster G prospect Depth:

NYI 1. Hamonic, T + 2. 2016 6th round pick

For: 1.Eberle, J.

NJ 1.Blackwood, M 2.Severson, D Additional Details: 2016 4th round pick

For: 1.Yakupov, N. Additional Details: Rights to David Musil

Why would NJ do this? They have Cory Schneider and 2 other very good G prospects. Musil is a Bobby Holik’s nephew and plays a style suitable for success in NJ. Severson seems to be in the coaches doghouse and likely needs a change of scenery.

wheatnoil

G Money:
wheatnoil,

Not so much scoring expectations by line, but rather actual contributions by line by team.“The top line for the Oilers contributed 87 goals” and on for the other lines, and for the other teams.

So you could compare and say the fourth line for Team A contributed 50 goals while for the Oilers they contributed 10 goals (or whatever).

I’m positive I’ve seen that somewhere … but it would be quite hard to do, due to the fluidity of lines (which is why if I do it myself I’ll just bucket it to Top 6 and Bottom 6 with generous interpretations of each).

Maybe I was hallucinating!

Wait… I did see that! Somewhere half way through the season… so you weren’t hallucinating… or there is some folie a deux going on.

Edit: Was it this?
http://www.pensburgh.com/2015/2/17/8044475/depth-scoring-from-forwards-across-the-nhl

JimmyV1965

Ducey: Couldn’t disagree more.

If you have been paying attention to LT’s recent posts you would see that a large part of the problem is not developing players from within.

That’s on development, and poor drafting, but its hard to develop a player you didn’t pick because you gave up the draft pick.

The 2014 and 2015 drafts cost them some picks that would be starting to come on line.

You believe they must mortgage the future to get into the playoffs.What then?

Well, you will need cheap in-house options to keep the ball rolling.

And sorting thru the chaff of undrafted players isn’t going to do it.

I wholeheartedly disagree with this. Lol. You can’t build a proper farm system until you take care of the NHL roster. Oilers need veteran leadership and players in the NHL. Only then will we stop bringing in nine new players every year. And until we keep the same roster every year, other than one or two tweaks, we can’t even begin to address the farm team. Only until we make this roster competitive can we start sending first round picks to the minors. We are at a different stage of development than the Leafs, for instance. We have a competitive team, with a few glaring holes, and need to address that immediately, even if it means trading a first round pick, which I don’t recall we have ever done.

ChiliChunk

RexLibris: Not to quibble, but I think LT’s favourite part of being an Oiler fan is moments like Eberle’s toe-drag around Sarich

Wasn’t it Ian White (who then called the goal a fluke)?

€√¥£€^$

If I was GM what would I do

Post #3

Remaining deals to clear roster for UFA’s, cap space and bring in more RHD and G prospects and more bullets for Bob Green.

DET 1. Russo, R (RHD) + 2016 6th round pick

For 1.Lander, A

ANA 1. Montour, B (RHD) 2.Boyle, K (G) + Additional Details: 2016 4th round pick

For 1.Pouliot, B.

MIN 2017 6th round pick For 1.Hendricks, M

CAR 2016 6th round pick For 1.Korpikoski, L