A GIANT ORDER OF BALANCE, PLEASE AND THANKS

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers have no more games on their schedule, nor do the minor league teams. There are a few players still in action—Ethan Bear may get a contract when he is done playing this spring—but the franchise is close to dormant at this time.

For Peter Chiarelli and his management/scouting staff, there are playoffs, the WHCs and then miles and miles of meetings and bad coffee (or green tea, no idea what these cats drink). There are some things happening among the pro scouts, you can read about them from time to time.

The game in Utica featured Anthony DeAngelo and he is a righty blue with offensive ability. The second game involved the Condors and Ontario reign, Sutter would have seen giant Justin Auger posting a good game, among others.

I have been messing around with the AHLStats site that estimates all kinds of things (including points-per-60) and there is some terrific stuff. All numbers below 35 or more games, prospects only. All numbers are in all situations.

TOP SCORING AHL PROSPECTS VIA ESTIMATED POINTS-PER-60

  1. Frank Vatrano, Boston 4.026
  2. William Nylander, Toronto 3.651
  3. Conor Sheary, Pittsburgh 3.572
  4. Seth Griffith, Boston 3.504
  5. Derek Grant, Calgary 3.382
  6. Alexander Khokhlachev, Boston 3.18
  7. Nick Cousins, Philadelphia 3.112
  8. Mikko Rantanen, Colorado 3.105
  9. Josh Winquist, free agent 3.046
  10. Jakub Vrana, Washington 2.862

Sign. the. man.

TOP SCORERS OVER 6.02, 205

  1. Mikko Rantanen, Colorado 3.105
  2. Brett Ritchie, Dallas 2.845
  3. Curtis McKenzie, Dallas 2.805
  4. Barclay Goodrow, San Jose 2.646
  5. Tobias Lindberg, Toronto 2.564
  6. Anthony Mantha, Detroit 2.448
  7. Brendan Gaunce, Vancouver 2.401
  8. Michael Mersch, Los Angeles 2.331
  9. Kerby Rychel, Columbus 2.273
  10. Nick Ritchie, Anaheim 2.246

Interesting list, I think all but No. 1, 6 and 10 would be available. Peter Chiarelli is going to have a bigger group of forwards next season—in Edmonton and in Bakersfield—so I can see him adding one or more wingers with size.

TOP SCORING DEFENSIVE PROSPECTS

  1. Brandon Montour, Anaheim 2.329
  2. Trevor Murphy, Nashville 2.021
  3. Shea Theodore, Anaheim 1.871
  4. Anthony DeAngelo, Tampa Bay 1.868
  5. Mark Barberio, Montreal 1.831
  6. Robbie Russo, Detroit 1.8
  7. Julius Honka, Dallas 1.797
  8. Jordan Subban, Vancouver 1.755
  9. Jordan Oesterle, Edmonton 1.707
  10. Trevor Carrick, Carolina 1.67

I don’t necessarily think the Oilers should acquire one of these guys for the NHL team—although that isn’t a terrible idea—but perhaps there is an opportunity to trade a LH D from the Condors for a righty on this list. Fair?

ANTHONY DEANGELO KEEPS SHOWING UP IN THESE THINGS

  • Elliotte Friedman: First was talk about Justin Schultz and Tampa Bay. The defenceman needs a fresh start, and it was rumoured the Oilers were scouting Anthony DeAngelo, the 19th overall pick in 2014. DeAngelo had a few recent healthy scratches at AHL Syracuse. The contracts do not match, so, if this was a possibility, the Albertans would have had to take back someone or some salary. The other — and I do believe it to be true — was interest in Florida’s Brandon Pirri. Unfortunately, he suffered an ugly ankle injury last weekend and will be out a while. Pirri could be a very nice fit with Edmonton’s forwards. Source

DeAngelo would be an excellent trade target, although the Oilers need to do much more this summer. Trading out a lefthander—say, Griffin Reinhart—and acquiring a puck-moving defender who is a righty gets the team more balance. Here is a really quick comparison between DeAngelo and Bakersfield’s Brad Hunt.

  • Boxcars: DeAngelo (69, 6-37-43 .623); Hunt (57, 13-28-41 .719)
  • Even Strength: DeAngelo (69, 6-18-24 .348); Hunt 57, 5-14-19 .333)
  • Power Play: DeAngelo (69, 0-19-19 .275);  Hunt (57, 8-14-22 .386)
  • Penalty Kill: DeAngelo (69, 0-0-0); Hunt (57, 0-0-0)
  • Shots on Goal Per Game:  DeAngelo (151 in 69 2.18 per-game); Hunt (154 in 57 2.70 per-game)

Hunt is a veteran, DeAngelo is an AHL rookie. These are excellent numbers and suggest he will soon be an NHL player. The Oilers badly need to add this player-type—how many power-play options are in the organization currently?

BALANCE, SWEET SWEET BALANCE

We have talked about making major deals to address defense this summer, but a lot of the speculation is just that—speculation. We don’t really have anything concrete—the DeAngelo rumor is more solid in my opinion than this trade of Benoit Pouliot for Sami Vatanen that somehow gets passed around. It appears to me we are about to enter a ‘silly season’ where Oilers fans are going to have a difficult time finding out what is real and what is creative thinking (we have a lot of creative thinkers in the blogosphere).

So, let’s re-set a few things, beginning with Peter Chiarelli’s summer:

  1. Top-pairing D to partner with Klefbom
  2. Trade pieces for extra D help
  3. Acquire RHC
  4. Offload unwanted contracts (Lauri Korpikoski)
  5. Backup goalie
  6. Re-stock the system partly through college and CHL signings
  7. Build up the system (especially forwards) via draft

There are things we don’t know, like the top-pairing defender target list (my guess? Jason Demers at or near the top, Dennis Wideman at the bottom of the active list). We can use the brain God gave us to find a strong list of defenders (some of the blogs, Oilers Rig being one, are doing a fine job of breaking down the available talent, and Darcy’s excellent work at Because Oilers is very insightful), but we simply don’t know all the curves and angles. Let’s break some of these things down.

  • Top-pairing D to partner with Klefbom

The reason Jason Demers appeals to me is that the investment is only money, not assets plus the money. Edmonton doesn’t have a massive group of talents bubbling under, and adding Demers would represent real progress. I think people are missing the point a little here, thinking that the Sekera addition didn’t move the needle. However, adding Sekera merely got Edmonton back to even, as they had traded out Jeff Petry at the deadline. One of the most galling things about this century of Oilers movements has been their incredible blindness to the lack of actual NHL players on the blue line. If they add Demers to Sekera, Mark Fayne and Oscar Klefbom, with Brandon Davidson also in photo, we are officially cooking with petrol. Not a playoff grouping yet, but a really nice foundation.

  • Trade pieces for extra D help

This is the spot where Dennis Wideman and Anthony DeAngelo come in, maybe more. Edmonton needs to add a second righty option, and maybe they add two depending on the price. If the Oilers add (say) Demers, Hamonic and DeAngelo, at the cost of money, Jordan Eberle and Griffin Reinhart, then the pro depth chart begins to look like something approaching normal:

  • Klefbom—Demers
  • Sekera—Hamonic
  • Davidson—Fayne
  • Nurse—DeAngelo
  • Oesterle—Musil
  • Simpson—Laleggia

I hope that is the template Peter Chiarelli is applying to the current problems. If Snow wants Hall (as an example) for Travis Hamonic—and we don’t know despite what anyone tells you—then Chiarelli would be wise to shop elsewhere. We may see a summer of hope (Hamonic and Vatanen for Eberle and Pouliot) end in a summer of less (Demers and Wideman and DeAngelo) and that could be the best thing for the Edmonton Oilers. Keep your powder dry, Peter Chiarelli. Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk came available on the final day of the offseason.

THE LOWETIDE PLAN

  • Find balance. Three RH D, including a player like Anthony DeAngelo, give this team better defensive balance and begins the cull of the leftorium.
  • Add two defensemen who are actual NHL players. Demers plus another, with Sami Vatanen and Travis Hamonic ideal, Dennis Wideman the last chance Texaco. 
  • Re-stock the system. The 2015 draft looks good early, Edmonton needs to do it again. Use the picks, sign Josh Winquist and grab that Drake kid from UND.
  • Keep the centers three. Why? It sets up everything, just everything.
  • Light a candle. The Oilers have very little depth, so staying healthy will be vital to any success we see next season.

hurdle gif

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun morning on the radio, TSN1260 beginning at 10.

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. Bob Cole called a tremendous game last night, Prince remembered, hockey playoff ratings.
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. NHL playoffs are the best playoffs. Or are they?
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. Paul likes Keith Yandle for the Oilers. Do you?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

75 comments
0

You may also like

0 0 vote
Article Rating
75 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Professor Q

Ducey,

You can’t really “just keep Yak”.

Ducey

Ca$h-McMoney!:
To jump back to the Hall for Strome and Hamonic discussion….

Strome will be a scratch tonight.

It’s Yak for Strome…maybe Strome +.That’s the play.

Yeah, I am not high on Strome. He is not physical, and is more of a passer than shooter (his shooting % is usually at or below 10%). He is looking like Teddy Purcell to me. That’s ok, but why not just sign Purcell?

He seems like one of those high skill/ low compete guys we have seem plenty of over the years.

I am not a Yak fan, but I think I’d just keep Yak. I think he has more upside.

Ca$h-McMoney!

To jump back to the Hall for Strome and Hamonic discussion….

Strome will be a scratch tonight.

It’s Yak for Strome… maybe Strome +. That’s the play.

Don’t mind me

Fog of Warts: to my lemon tree,

Mr Warts, I have been curious since the first time reading the reference to your significant other as a lemon tree.

Is it because a lemon tree looks good but the fruit is sour?

Ca$h-McMoney!

John Chambers,

I agree. I’d rather pay a higher AAV for 1 year but I’d be willing to go to 2 for a little lower $.

It’s a risk, but then again all free agents are. Campbell has been good to date and he’s also been good in the old-guy-still-bringing-it-while-sheltering-and-teaching-the-kids role.

mustang

Ducey:

I sure hope Chia doesn’t share the obsession for RH Dman that prevails here.Getting one (or three!?) doesn’t have to be done at all costs.

Has anyone even studied whether having LH Dman play the left side makes a big impact? I can see some difficulty going into your own corner (you are facing the boards) and perhaps holding the offensive blue line on the boards, but otherwise you are stronger in the middle on a 1 v 1 and set for a 1 timer on the point.I can see a heads up player like Davidson managing quite well in the 3rd pairing on the right.

There are LH Dmen who play the right side all the time. Virtually every player in Russia is LH. They manage alright.

It’s funny you brought up Russia being mostly LH. Back in the 70’s the Soviet Red Army team was all LHS. Interesting, they did ok I guess. Goes to show don’t sacrifice talent for virtually anything.

John Chambers

Ducey: I agree with the sentiment but Campbell at $8 M per for his age 37 and 38 seasons?That’s a big risk, I think.The list of Dmen who were very good at age 38 isn’t very long.

It’s a big number for a 37-38 year old but…

Campbell played in all 82 games in each of the last 3 seasons
He’s averaged ~31 pts per season
He was +31 this year!
And he’s been a great on-ice teacher to Ekblad

His speed may decline but his defensive ‘craft’ will stay well honed as will his elite passing.

John Chambers

Woogie63:
John Chambers,

That is very high praise for a rookie defensemen with 60 NHL games under his belt.I am hoping for the next 140 games to be as promising as the first 60.

I said Davidson was one of the team’s top defenders this year. He was. After Klef got injured Davidson was probably only behind Sekara in terms of actual performance and it wasn’t a tremendous gap either.

But Davidson should be our #5 next season. To me that’s the proxy for whether we’re a playoff team or not.

Ca$h-McMoney!

Ducey,

2 years is a tad risky, obviously 1 year is preferred. If we have the cap space it’s 0 risk then.

Woogie63

John Chambers,

That is very high praise for a rookie defensemen with 60 NHL games under his belt. I am hoping for the next 140 games to be as promising as the first 60.

Ducey

John Chambers:
Ca$h-McMoney!,

I actually prefer Campbell to Demers, realizing that he’s a left and this would mean shifting Sekara to the right. If they signed Campbell to $8M x 2 I would be swooning as we get a 23-minute a night blueliner who can wheel and pass, and it wouldn’t fuck with the McDavid contract.

From there Nurse, Davidson, and Reinhart fight to get into the top 4.

I agree with the sentiment but Campbell at $8 M per for his age 37 and 38 seasons? That’s a big risk, I think. The list of Dmen who were very good at age 38 isn’t very long.

John Chambers

Ca$h-McMoney!,

I actually prefer Campbell to Demers, realizing that he’s a left and this would mean shifting Sekara to the right. If they signed Campbell to $8M x 2 I would be swooning as we get a 23-minute a night blueliner who can wheel and pass, and it wouldn’t fuck with the McDavid contract.

From there Nurse, Davidson, and Reinhart fight to get into the top 4.

Ca$h-McMoney!

John Chambers,

That’s what I was thinking of with Brian Campbell (Demers is better, but assuming we don’t get him).

Basically offer him all of your 2016 cap space, whatever that is, after the other moves are made. 1 year $7 million, something like that.

It would be too much from an AAV standpoint but it’s one year of mentorship and nice consistent play.

New Improved Darkness

Nice coincidence.

I’ve been mulling a possible future blog title for nearly as long as Lowetide has been harbouring fugitives (I was thinking in particular about the “balance” picture—but as with most poetic turns of phrase, YMMV).

In any case, I think I’ve scored a winner.

It had to be a bit goofy, and misleadingly suggestive (but not all that misleading on second or third take), it had to have a few private meanings to remind me why I get out bed in the morning—one can never have too many water stations on the daily marathon—and it had to be open enough to encompass any subject matter or treatment I might conceivably take up (yikes!—before the NX-01 made first contact with a replicator, they had a chef on board who was fond of serving up “catch of the day”.)

———

Why Stephen King Spends ‘Months and Even Years’ Writing Opening Sentences

They threw me off the hay truck about noon.

This sentence tells you more than you think it tells you. Nobody’s riding on the hay truck because they bought a ticket. He’s a basically a drifter, someone on the outskirts, someone who’s going to steal and filch to get by. So you know a lot about him from the beginning, more than maybe registers in your conscious mind, and you start to get curious.

———

The reader is also secretly relieved that the narrator wasn’t thrown off the hay truck at high noon—speaking for myself, at least, I’ve never been all that keen on novels narrated from the afterlife (Vonnegut does this in Galápagos, and even with his sardonic touch, it makes me tense the whole time).

———

Late addition.

True story.

I sat on the floor beside the couch one long evening, holding hands and reading out loud a big chunk of this book (Galápagos) to my lemon tree, who was riding out the worst menstrual cramps she has ever experienced. I think most women would have elected to ride that one out in the inner-sanctum waiting room of the local ER, suffering and seething about how little is being done, when you know that just a few doors down the hall, there’s this locked medicine cabinet with a glass panel you can punch your hand right through to get the pills you need NOW.

“Nobody panic! Just a flesh wound! It’s my lemon tree you should all be worrying about. Just a little blood spurting out—it can wait until later—I’m a big lug with entire pints to spare—and picking out all this glass gives me something constructive to do while we pass eternity.”

John Chambers

Visually better: Yes Ma’am, or Sir…. I completely agree. I like a few fans want to celebrate in the streets when I watch Mr. Davidson on the ice, he has the poise of a 10 year vet and the physical tools to play against the men of the west. I would definitely agree he is our second best option on defense after Klefbom.

I agree with both of you about Davidson already being one of the team’s top defenders, but like LT don’t think the Oilers should (or will) rely on that as a plan for ’16-’17.

For that reason, and because I personally don’t want to see more than one core player get traded, I think the Oilers should both trade for a top D (like Hamonic) AND sign a UFA to a short term contract for before we have to re-up McDavid.

Demers $13M / 2. It’s a staggering AAV but assuming we trade a $6M man for Hamonic’s super-value contract there’s room in the short-term for this kind of manoever.

If in two years Davidson, Nurse, and Reinhart have proven to have become reliable top-4’s you spread the Demers money appropriately amongst them.

russ99

Balancing the D without balancing the forwards just papers over the cracks.

Watch some playoff hockey and think how some of these teams would look with our forward D-zone support.

I’m all on board for adding a decent 2-way RH center, but IMO, we need to add some more defense-oriented wingers too.

Visually better

ashley:
I know you are a big fan of Mark Fayne (last year had him on the top pairing leading into the season, if I recall).However, I don’t see him making the team in the fall.I don’t think it will be close, especially with a UFA addition, Nurse, Oesterle, and Reinhart in the mix.

Also, the placement of Davidson on the third pairing is curious.He played top 4 minutes when healthy, and often the most minutes of an Dman on the ice.He’s likely better than everyone on the roster save Klefbom, and may pass him next winter.

Otherwise, I’m in full agreement….except for all the righty-lefty stuff :).

Yes Ma’am, or Sir…. I completely agree. I like a few fans want to celebrate in the streets when I watch Mr. Davidson on the ice, he has the poise of a 10 year vet and the physical tools to play against the men of the west. I would definitely agree he is our second best option on defense after Klefbom.

leadfarmer

rickithebear:
Top 8 GA teams Reg Season
top 80 HSCA D 10.50
#1 ANA 188 4 (Manson; Lindholm; Stoner; Vatanen.)Despres 10.53
#2 WSH 191 5 (Niskanen, Orpik, Alzner, Weber, Schmidt)Orlov 10.55Carlson 10.92
#3 LAK 192 7 (Schenn, Martinez, Mcnabb, Doughty, Scuderi, Muzzin, Mcbain) Ehrhoff 10.67
#4 STL 197 4 (bortuzzo, Parayko, Gunnarsson, Edmundson)Shattenkirk 10.70
#5 TMP 198 2(stralman, Garrison,)Carle 10.71, Hedman 10.97
#6 PIT 199 5 (Dumoulin; Lovejoy; pouliot; Daley; Maata) Cole 10.73; Letang 10.78
#7 FLD 200 7 (kampfer, Kulikov, Ekblad, Petrovic, Campbell, Gudbranson, Mitchell)
#8 NJD 202 7 (gelinas, Schlemko, Larsson, Greene, Merrill, Severson, Moore)
#9 MIN 204 4 (suter, Spurgeon, Prosser, Brodin) Scandella 10.62
#10 SJS 207 4 (vlasic, Braun, Polak, Demelo)burns 10.92, Martin 10.97,
#10 CHI 207 2 (Hjarlmasson, TVR,)

49 of the top 60

if you have any top 60 HSCA D they are largely untouchable.
Suggesting trading a top 60 HSCA D shows a complete lack of understanding how to make the playoffs in a efficiency based cap world.

THE TOP 30 EVP/650 FWD IN THE GAME CANNOT OUTSCORE BAD DEFENCE.
So the lower level scorers get crushed in a Goal dif game.

Were most fans are fooled is the emphasis on D offence ignoring the affects of a high bottom end HSCA D count and Poor Med and High Chance shot save% goalies.

6 worst
#6, 7 8 D HSCA results 11.10 or worse
#1 CGY 257 6 (Wideman, Hamilton, Russell, Brodie, Giordano, Engelland)
#2 CBJ 248 3 (Jones, Faulk, Murray) (2 HSCA D Tyutin, Prout)
#3 ARZ 244 4 (Connauton, Elliot, Stone, Grossman,) (2 HSCA D
#4 EDM 242 6 (Sekera, Fayne, Schultz, Gryba, Reinhart, Nurse) (2 HSCA D Klefbom, Davidson)
#5 OTT 241 5 (Karlsson, Cowen, Phanuef, Wiercoch, Ceci)
#6 COL 240 5 (Beauchemin, Johnson, Bigras/Redmond, Barrie, Holden
#6 TOR 240 2 (Reilly, Hunwick) Gardiner 11.13 (2 HSCA D Corrado 10.16, Marincin 10.34)
#8 VCR 239 5 (Bartkowski, Biega, Hutton, Sbisa, Edler) (1 HSCA D Tanev 10.19)
#9 WPG 236 2 (Byufuglien, stuart) Enstrom 11.03, Chariot 11.00
#10 MTL 233 2 (Subban, Beaulieu)

1st half of season
Goalies with bottom 15 Med and High chance shot save%
Ramo
Talbot
Rinne
Bobrovsky
Nilsson
Condon

2nd half of season
Goalies with bottom 15 Med and High chance Save%
Mrazek
holtby
Condon
Hiller
Hutchinson and Pavelec only saved around 3 out of every 4 shots in box.

2nd half
Top 15Med and high Chance Save%
Elliott
Korpisalo
Varlamov
Ward
Talbot
Crawford
Greiss

PS:
suggesting any of:
Gryba;
Reinhart
Nurse
Oesterle
bottom 15 in the game HSCA d should be on our team next year.
Is Bat shit crazy!

I’m sorry I dont speak bear

Frank the dog

I think the most accurate appraisal of Chia I have seen on this blog, is that he will only trade if it improves the team. I’m sure he has a price on the head of everyone on the team except CMD, because no one in the league has any chance of offering a player or player combo that would pry CMD loos from Chia.
The price is the return that would address an area of need from an area of depth (duh) If he cannot get the price he is looking for he is better off with the players he has, and the players he will draft and develop. I doubt he has much interest in undersized players of any description, regardless of skill. Anyone coming in has to be large and nasty with at least a certain level of skill, another Maroon.
I think his lowest value relative to skill set will obviously be lack of size, and then lack of .
It’s a very fluid, but specific map, and the first domino to fall will be the draft lottery. I’d be very surprised to see a trade for the sake of a trade. Not happening.
So please yourselves suggesting trades, the situation will be this way for some time.
Oh, and if I want to see whether one American team beats another American team, I’ll tune into the NFL. For the first time since I started watching hockey, I could care less about this year’s Stanley Cup run.

Loyal2theoil

JimmyV1965,

I think the poster “Ashley” captured the best insight on Davy I’ve seen in awhile.

A few weeks back s/he mentioned that Davidson has that sixth sense to stop danger before it happens, which is what I have seen as well..

JimmyV1965

leadfarmer: How does potentially removing a team from a pool of 5-7 teams that a player wants to get traded to drive his price up?

Hamonic does not have very many suitors in the area that he wants to go.Jets don’t do many big trades and Chevaldayoff will not do a trade just to do one, aka he will not just swap defensemen with the Isles like they would like.

Calgary may want another defensemen but they already have 3 better ones, but they are pretty poor behind those defensemen.Pretty much they would have to find a taker for Wideman before they could even consider Hamonic.

Vancouver doesnt seem to get him much closer to home and is two time zones away instead of just one.They could use him but dont think it makes much sense from Hamonics point of view

Wild are trying to get rid of a defenseman for a center.They are the least interested team on this list..Only way they would go for him is to immediately flip him or a second dman for a center

If you think about it, the only team that really fits for Hamonic is Edmonton. The top priorities for the Jets, Flames and Wild are forwards. The Canucks have nothing to offer but one of their very few offensive prospects. I really doubt Snow wants draft picks as the centrepiece of the deal. I would think Snow’s bargaining position is very weak. If he wants too much wait him out. There’s other fish in the sea. Off the top of my head, I can see us going after Orlov or Gudas and I’m sure there’s many others.

ashley

I know you are a big fan of Mark Fayne (last year had him on the top pairing leading into the season, if I recall). However, I don’t see him making the team in the fall. I don’t think it will be close, especially with a UFA addition, Nurse, Oesterle, and Reinhart in the mix.

Also, the placement of Davidson on the third pairing is curious. He played top 4 minutes when healthy, and often the most minutes of an Dman on the ice. He’s likely better than everyone on the roster save Klefbom, and may pass him next winter.

Otherwise, I’m in full agreement….except for all the righty-lefty stuff :).

rickithebear

Top 8 GA teams Reg Season
top 80 HSCA D 10.50
#1 ANA 188 4 (Manson; Lindholm; Stoner; Vatanen.) Despres 10.53
#2 WSH 191 5 (Niskanen, Orpik, Alzner, Weber, Schmidt) Orlov 10.55 Carlson 10.92
#3 LAK 192 7 (Schenn, Martinez, Mcnabb, Doughty, Scuderi, Muzzin, Mcbain) Ehrhoff 10.67
#4 STL 197 4 (bortuzzo, Parayko, Gunnarsson, Edmundson) Shattenkirk 10.70
#5 TMP 198 2 (stralman, Garrison,) Carle 10.71, Hedman 10.97
#6 PIT 199 5 (Dumoulin; Lovejoy; pouliot; Daley; Maata) Cole 10.73; Letang 10.78
#7 FLD 200 7 (kampfer, Kulikov, Ekblad, Petrovic, Campbell, Gudbranson, Mitchell)
#8 NJD 202 7 (gelinas, Schlemko, Larsson, Greene, Merrill, Severson, Moore)
#9 MIN 204 4 (suter, Spurgeon, Prosser, Brodin) Scandella 10.62
#10 SJS 207 4 (vlasic, Braun, Polak, Demelo) burns 10.92, Martin 10.97,
#10 CHI 207 2 (Hjarlmasson, TVR,)

49 of the top 60

if you have any top 60 HSCA D they are largely untouchable.
Suggesting trading a top 60 HSCA D shows a complete lack of understanding how to make the playoffs in a efficiency based cap world.

THE TOP 30 EVP/650 FWD IN THE GAME CANNOT OUTSCORE BAD DEFENCE.
So the lower level scorers get crushed in a Goal dif game.

Were most fans are fooled is the emphasis on D offence ignoring the affects of a high bottom end HSCA D count and Poor Med and High Chance shot save% goalies.

6 worst
#6, 7 8 D HSCA results 11.10 or worse
#1 CGY 257 6 (Wideman, Hamilton, Russell, Brodie, Giordano, Engelland)
#2 CBJ 248 3 (Jones, Faulk, Murray) (2 HSCA D Tyutin, Prout)
#3 ARZ 244 4 (Connauton, Elliot, Stone, Grossman,) (2 HSCA D
#4 EDM 242 6 (Sekera, Fayne, Schultz, Gryba, Reinhart, Nurse) (2 HSCA D Klefbom, Davidson)
#5 OTT 241 5 (Karlsson, Cowen, Phanuef, Wiercoch, Ceci)
#6 COL 240 5 (Beauchemin, Johnson, Bigras/Redmond, Barrie, Holden
#6 TOR 240 2 (Reilly, Hunwick) Gardiner 11.13 (2 HSCA D Corrado 10.16, Marincin 10.34)
#8 VCR 239 5 (Bartkowski, Biega, Hutton, Sbisa, Edler) (1 HSCA D Tanev 10.19)
#9 WPG 236 2 (Byufuglien, stuart) Enstrom 11.03, Chariot 11.00
#10 MTL 233 2 (Subban, Beaulieu)

1st half of season
Goalies with bottom 15 Med and High chance shot save%
Ramo
Talbot
Rinne
Bobrovsky
Nilsson
Condon

2nd half of season
Goalies with bottom 15 Med and High chance Save%
Mrazek
holtby
Condon
Hiller
Hutchinson and Pavelec only saved around 3 out of every 4 shots in box.

2nd half
Top 15 Med and high Chance Save%
Elliott
Korpisalo
Varlamov
Ward
Talbot
Crawford
Greiss

PS:
suggesting any of:
Gryba;
Reinhart
Nurse
Oesterle
bottom 15 in the game HSCA d should be on our team next year.
Is Bat shit crazy!

Snowman

natejax97,

I’m not at all sold on Chychrun being the best D available this year… Lots of good D available but I don’t really like the idea of trading down to get one of them. Too much uncertainty who will be the better one and none of them are likely to be big contributors in the next two seasons.

The idea of drafting and developing a stud D is already happening. You’ve got three kicks at the can with Klefbom, Nurse and Reinhart. Klef is close to being a top pair. I don’t expect Reinhart to develop into that guy and I have some doubts about Nurse being that guy as well (both will be very useful NHLers in my opinion). Klef is the most likely and has the most tools. He’s also the furthest along.

The Oilers have to be a contender at the end of the 2017/18 season. Chia should make moves based on that being the date at which the Oilers are most likely to win.

JimmyV1965

Woogie63:
We are rich with LHD prospects, it will be interesting to see who ends up with the highest ceiling?To my eye Davidson’s development plan is +100 games ahead of his peer group.

Name – Height – weight –Games – NHL – Minors – Junior

Davidson – 6’2 -210 – 423 – 63- 160 -200
Reinhart 6’4 – 212305 – 37 – 59 – 209
Nurse 6’4 – 213294 – 69 – 4 (?) – 221
Klefbom 6’3 – 215231 – 107 – 57 – 67

I frickin love Davidson. I know I’m speaking from the heart, not my head, but I think he’s going to be our Duncan Keith, except he’s bigger!! He went from 0-60 in record time. Please please please PC don’t trade him.

natejax97

Ducey,

Agree 100%

Love Gryba – hope we resign him. Good for the room, and a good protector for the kids. Not to mention a real solid partner for Davidson.

Love The Gryb’s

natejax97

Hey LT, just our of curiosity….what would Gothisbere be worth?

Would the first, second or third overall pluck him out of Philly? Would we get Philly’s draft pick as well if it was Matthews?

natejax97

I would hope that the oil draft Chychrun this year, trading down to get him if need be.

Forward depth can be replaced easier through free agency.

As fun as it is to spitball and armchair GM, realistically a stud D-man will not fall into our laps. This player will need to be drafted and developed, and the sooner the better. Everyone is salivating over the finns and Matthews, great, let them, we should be able to win a trade finally if we are so lucky to win a lottery pick.

Keep the powder dry Chia, make your trades (Hamonic at 4.3 is perfect), move some salaries out if possible (Korp and “shudder” a 6 miller) but do not sell the farm by signing big free agent contracts and trading for expensive d-men, we have huge contracts coming in 2 short years.

Franchise D – draft and develop, increase your odds and fill your cupboard. Hopefully Nurse and Chychrun both turn out, best case scenario.

The problem with this team is not forwards, it is defense. At some point we want to contend for a cup, and to do this we need a stud, and we need depth, and we need these guys under good contracts for long term. It can be done, but we HAVE to start this year.

2 Years:

Klefbom – Hamonic
Nurse – Vatanen
Chychrun – Sekera
Davidson
Reinhardt
Osterle

Whatever order – I believe this is what it will take to get a playoff team with depth for injuries.

But again I am just big dreaming arm chairing GM’ing.

leadfarmer

Jethro Tull: There are 28 other teams for Snow to trade with.

Using ‘we got Demers, na-na-na’ as a bargaining tool is not something I would pin my negotiation on.

In fact, if we sign Demers as the big FA d man available this year, it only drives Hamonic’s price UP.

How does potentially removing a team from a pool of 5-7 teams that a player wants to get traded to drive his price up?

Hamonic does not have very many suitors in the area that he wants to go. Jets don’t do many big trades and Chevaldayoff will not do a trade just to do one, aka he will not just swap defensemen with the Isles like they would like.

Calgary may want another defensemen but they already have 3 better ones, but they are pretty poor behind those defensemen. Pretty much they would have to find a taker for Wideman before they could even consider Hamonic.

Vancouver doesnt seem to get him much closer to home and is two time zones away instead of just one. They could use him but dont think it makes much sense from Hamonics point of view

Wild are trying to get rid of a defenseman for a center. They are the least interested team on this list.. Only way they would go for him is to immediately flip him or a second dman for a center

Ducey

Jethro Tull: There are 28 other teams for Snow to trade with.

Using ‘we got Demers, na-na-na’ as a bargaining tool is not something I would pin my negotiation on.

In fact, if we sign Demers as the big FA d man available this year, it only drives Hamonic’s price UP.

The price won’t go up. Snow will have already set his ask well before then. It will be high.

The question is how much he will come down.

If Chia has Demers, he won’t have to take it. Let someone else overpay. If they don’t Chia can negotiate from a position of strength and outwait Snow. It would seem that he has to trade Hamonic but not right at the beginning of the summer.

If Chia doesn’t get Demers, he is in no different position than he is now. There are lots of fish in the sea.

Going into the summer with the notion that “We must get Hamonic” (as seems to be the mentality of some posters) is bound to work out poorly.

Jordan

Hi LT,

I’ve been reading and drafting posts for the last week, and haven’t posted any of them. -_-

So, here’s a synopsis mostly directed to you, but also to the others here.

———————————————————————————————————————————

Re: Pouliot
If BP can do just about anything passably to quite well on the wings… WHY THE HELL AREN’T WE TALKING ABOUT HIM AS THE MODERN PISANI? HAVEN’T we been looking for him for a decade? Why did no one tell me we already have him? (Or did I miss the memo..?)

———————————————————————————————————————————

Re: Nuge
I think that based on the value of his production, time injured, and the need for a 28 YO RH Center, I think he’s the most likely 6M man to be sent out. I think he’s more likely to get you a better D-man than Eberle.

I think he might be saved from this if Katz has decided that they are not trading any 1OVs This would have much deeper consequences though.

———————————————————————————————————————————

Re: Balance
I agree with you in principal about keeping as much of the team in tact as possible while getting 2 top 4 RHD. I question whether that will be feasible. I hope it will. But if there’s a bidding war for Demers…. that’s 1 issue. If there is no information about expansion… that’s another. Lots of balls in the air – hope like hell they’ve got their scenario planning down.

———————————————————————————————————————————

Re: Trading Players

I get the feeling that we’ve really lost a lot of the rules we used to have about trades. I don’t know if this is because the Oilers lost so many of them for 5 years or what, but… it’s significant, and it’s impacting how we discuss them.

Rule 1:
Get good players. Keep Good Players

Rule 2:
If you are getting the best player in the trade, you’ve won the trade

Corollary to Rule 2:
If you use draft picks you got in trade well to improve your team, it doesn’t change the value of the trade. It means the drafting/developing/scouting/Management did a good job of taking lemons and making lemonade.

Rule 3:
The value of the player’s contract impacts the value of the players being traded for. CMD is untouchable not just because of ability, but because of contract value too.

Rule 4:
You do not have to give to get.

Corollary to Rule 4:
You have to be able to be patient enough for another team to get desperate in order to get without giving.

Rule 5:
If you think you don’t have a choice in making a trade, you’ve already lost the trade.

Rule 6:
If you haven’t read Sun Tzu’s The Art of War and applied his teachings to trades, you’re in trouble.

Rule 7:
The better job you can do exploiting the rules of hockey to benefit your team (including getting draft picks for former staff) the better off your team is.

Corollary 1 to Rule 7:
If you aren’t making the rules, you’re capacity to exploit the rules suffers

Corollary 2 to Rule 7:
Whoever has the money makes the rules.

———————————————————————————————————————————

I’d love to see a complete post about “The Rules” from your perspective LT, especially taking into account all the Sather years I didn’t get to see. Would you be able to pull something like that together before we get to the draft?

Jethro Tull

Ducey: If Chia gets Demers under contract, Snow is going to have to be a lot more reasonable.

There are 28 other teams for Snow to trade with.

Using ‘we got Demers, na-na-na’ as a bargaining tool is not something I would pin my negotiation on.

In fact, if we sign Demers as the big FA d man available this year, it only drives Hamonic’s price UP.

Mariusz Czerkawski

monsterbater: Precisely. Well put.

Which is not to say if an appropriate deal came along to further reinforce the left side i would balk at it because of Klefbom needing to be the top LHD. I just think we need to give him the opportunity next year because if he succeeds as the numbers suggest he could, that’s a sweetheart deal that helps you build cup contenders.

Mariusz Czerkawski

Before you can win the cup, you have to make the playoffs. Before you have a great defense you have to have a good defense.

Precisely. Well put.

Woogie63

We are rich with LHD prospects, it will be interesting to see who ends up with the highest ceiling? To my eye Davidson’s development plan is +100 games ahead of his peer group.

Name – Height – weight – Games – NHL – Minors – Junior

Davidson – 6’2 -210 – 423 – 63- 160 -200
Reinhart 6’4 – 212 305 – 37 – 59 – 209
Nurse 6’4 – 213 294 – 69 – 4 (?) – 221
Klefbom 6’3 – 215 231 – 107 – 57 – 67

Ducey

godot10:
It is awfully risky to wait until July 1 as the prime option (Demers) to fix the defense.Signing a UFA is NOT a sure thing.

Chiarelli really has to fix the defense and make his moves before July 1.Demers is a last default option if all else fails.

You keep posting this. It doesn’t make sense.

Chia can fix the defense at the draft, during free agency or even on the eve of the season. Snow picked up Leddy and Boychuk late a few seasons ago from teams in a cap crunch.

If they want to trade for RFA’s the real impetus to do so will not come until teams start negotiating with those RFA’s. Often that doesn’t advance much until mid July.

Unless they are dealing picks (which have the most value at the draft), the trades can happen any time.

If fact, it would be a poor move to trade Eberle for Hamonic not knowing if you can get/ how much it would cost to get Demers. If Chia gets Demers under contract, Snow is going to have to be a lot more reasonable.

Snowman

monsterbater: While i understand the sentiment about not relying on Klefbom to be a top 2 D, i think LT is more referring to finding a partner to play with Klefbom because he likes the Sekera/Fayne pairing. The idea behind getting someone to partner with Klefbom would be to have 2 top 4 D pairings that you could run as a 1A and 1B based on matchups, whose hot etc. You would also likely load that pairing with PP time and the Sekera pairing with PK time

I agree with this and would add the idea is to become a playoff team next year, not a contender, there’s a big difference between the two and I believe you can be the former with klefbom in the top two next year and the latter with a more mature klefbom the following year.

Before you can win the cup, you have to make the playoffs. Before you have a great defense you have to have a good defense.

Acumen

DeAngelo would be a huge add, and the suggestion of a swap for Reinhart that you put forth makes sense for both teams, though I imagine they would push for Yakupov in any conversation. This could be interesting.

His numbers to this point are amazing, he passed my eye test the couple times I’ve seen him, and he shoots right. Beyond that, he’s already got 3 years of seasoning on him.

Mariusz Czerkawski

kinger_OIL:
– Great post LT!LT says: “Top-pairing D to partner with Klefbom”

– 2 issues with this:
1) Klefbom could become a top D on a very deep D team, but pencilling him in, and relying on him to be a playoff-calibre #1 D next season is just not setting the D up to over-deliver.
2) So Klef needs a real awesome D if he is the #1 D: but Demers is not a stud

While i understand the sentiment about not relying on Klefbom to be a top 2 D, i think LT is more referring to finding a partner to play with Klefbom because he likes the Sekera/Fayne pairing. The idea behind getting someone to partner with Klefbom would be to have 2 top 4 D pairings that you could run as a 1A and 1B based on matchups, whose hot etc. You would also likely load that pairing with PP time and the Sekera pairing with PK time

vinotintazo

godot10: Chiarelli really has to fix the defense and make his moves before July 1. Demers is a last default option if all else fails.

also if you cant get Demers, we still got Fayne for two more years…

godot10

It is awfully risky to wait until July 1 as the prime option (Demers) to fix the defense. Signing a UFA is NOT a sure thing.

Chiarelli really has to fix the defense and make his moves before July 1. Demers is a last default option if all else fails.

fifthcartel

Ca$h-McMoney!,

They might be one of the most interesting teams this off season with Barrie/Duchene/ (potentially) Radulov.

I think if the choice is between Barrie and Vatanen, I’d go Barrie quite easily.

kinger_OIL

– Great post LT! LT says: “Top-pairing D to partner with Klefbom”

– 2 issues with this:
1) Klefbom could become a top D on a very deep D team, but pencilling him in, and relying on him to be a playoff-calibre #1 D next season is just not setting the D up to over-deliver.
2) So Klef needs a real awesome D if he is the #1 D: but Demers is not a stud

– I do like though that that your suggestion has only Davidson in the top-6. Breaking in Klef as your #1 is a huge ask, suspect you are right

– Dont also develop Nurse in the NHL at the same time. And Davidson is not likely to progress in a straight line either so lots of shuffling in the bottom.

– Not good enough on the top no matter what we do, plus development pain on the bottom D.

Ducey

Woodguy:
Send Nurse down and teach him to play the right side

You suggest switching him to being a right hander?

This is good reading on the subject: https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/03/04/quantifying-the-importance-of-handedness/

Thanks for that. If I am reading that properly, it says we would expect that having two lefties would effect that pairing by -2.9 corsi events per/60. That’s one a game for a pairing if they play 20 minutes, correct? That hardly seems like a big deal, does it?

It seems to verify my point that the drop off between Gryba (or really any of the Oilers D) to Wideman is much more than having 2 lefties.

ACalgaryOilFan

monsterbater,

Fair enough. My only thought on including Klef in the deal for Hamonic was a. you have to give to get but maybe thats giving too much b. Hamonic will be cheaper than Demers, I suspect signing him will be in the 5.5 million range.

Ideally if you could do Eberle and Davidson for Hamonic and Strome that would be great than you have Sek and Klef on the left side and Subban and Ham on the right which is probably as good a top 6 you could get for around 24 mil give or take.

Other option is you give up Nurse but I like him too much so I won’t ha!

The other thought with the idea of trading both Hall and Eberle for defensemen is can the team afford to give up that much offense up front, i suspect they could if they draft the right player and can add depth offensively but that would be the risk. Plus when you hear people talking about Okoposo and Ladd making 7+ M on their future deals you really can’t beat the value you get with Hall and Eberle.

Ca$h-McMoney!

fifthcartel,

Oh god I love the Avs.

Duchene celebrated a goal in a game they were losing. He’s too much of a selfish Diva. Get rid of him.

Bring in Radulov. He will be a leader on the team.

What could possibly go wrong….

Richard S.S.

Could everyone stop talking about the Oilers acquiring Calgary’s garbage. Let’s leave the bad news with them.

Richard S.S.

Lowetide
It’s possible to convert your website into an App, but you’d have to talk with someone more knowledgeable on the subject. A one time charge to download the App of between $2.99 and $5.99 should cover costs. Considering at least several hundred people would download it, how costly can it be.

Your Saturday Sports Extra podcasts don’t continue past early October 2014, so what you talk about must not be significant.

fifthcartel

I feel like Demers (excellent) and Wideman would be really disappointing despite how much I like signing Jason Demers.

Slava Malamud ‏@SlavaMalamud 2h2 hours ago
Varlamov speaks to Russian media, says the #Avs are “waiting for Radulov. He’ll be one of the leaders there.”

Radulov in. Barrie out with Duchene going for a defensemen?

Woodguy

monsterbater:
Ducey,

WG mentioned it on LTs show yesterday i believe it was the folks at hockey graphs that did the analysis. There are often LHD playing the right side because there is more left handed shooting players overall so it often happens that way. There analysis showed i believe an up to 6% possession drop from playing like handed players together vs. a RH with a LH. That could drop a good player (51% Corsi) to a replacement level player (45% corsi).

So to answer your question, while wideman might not be the answer, it’s probably better than trying to run nurse on the right side next year.

Ha!

Didn’t see this response before posting my own.

Cheers.