RE 15-16 LAURI KORPIKOSKI: TILL I GAIN CONTROL AGAIN

There are two kinds of coaches. The first kind try to get a better glove in the lineup in the middle spots on the defensive spectrum—C, 2B, 3B, CF—that could get exposed. The second kind try to get a better bat in the lineup in the spots on the defensive spectrum that could get exposed. Both coaching types are doomed when confronted with a double secret-agent man like Lauri Korpikoski. Like the SNL skit about Pat, it is difficult for even the wisest to know exactly what we are seeing in Lauri Korpikoski as an NHL player. Damndest thing. (Till I Can Gain Control Again).

LAURI KORPIKOSKI 14-15

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.84 (10th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 7.36 (1st among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 9th toughest competition among regulars (third line)
  • Qual Team: 6th best teammates among regulars (second line)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 44.0%
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -13.3
  • Zone Start: 45.6%
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 82 shots/7.3%
  • Boxcars: 69GP, 6-15-21

LAURI KORPIKOSKI 15-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.02 (12th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 5.26 (2nd among forwards)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 43.0%
  • Qual Comp: 13th toughest competition among regulars (fourth line)
  • Qual Team: 10th best teammates among regulars (fourth line)
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -16.8
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 88 shots/11.4%
  • Boxcars: 71GP, 10-12-22

WAR ON ICE PLAYER CHARTS

war on ice sledgehammer

Korpikoski is in a spot—third-line opposition, no real pressure on him—where a productive veteran would have thrived. Korpikoski did not deliver enough at even strength (71, 7-8-15, one of those and ENG) to overcome his possession issues, or warrant another season. In my opinion.

RE 15-16: 67GP, 8-8-16 .239

ACTUAL 15-16: 71GP, 10-12-22 .310

  1. So, he wasn’t Fernando Pisani? He wasn’t even Ryan Jones.
  2. You had such high hopes. Nah. We knew who he was. Cat Silverman put this story to bed miles ago: “In terms of scoring chances for and Corsi for, Korpikoski’s numbers are literally identical to Nail Yakupov’s (this is not a joke. I literally plugged them both into war-on-ice and they’re like these unlucky mid-line twins). Defensively, Korpikoski’s got a slightly better game than Yak, but not by much – but once again, hard to tell if that’s usage-based or a true indicator that he’s better in theory than he is on the ice. The best stat Korpikoski provides is his ability to generate scoring chances for his teammates – he’s a big play generator, as far as second or third liners go.” Source
  3. What were they thinking? Sometimes in life you have a goal and the solution to that goal gets you in a tough spot. The goal was to replace Boyd Gordon with a faster veteran, because (my guess is) they wanted Mark Letestu in the Gordon slot.
  4. So they cast about looking for a Gordon landing spot? Yes, and to get the least horrible return. It appears Korpikoski was the answer.
  5. Chiarelli said he had time for him. Sure. He got rid of a very slow center in Gordon and Korpikoski still has NHL speed.
  6. But he can’t play a role? I think he can help on the PP and if he was in an extreme offense role we could see 15 goals, maybe more. Edmonton has better options, they needed Korpikoski to help in third-line scoring and do a good job checking.
  7. He can’t check? His possession numbers are very poor.
  8. Was he ever a good checker? Arc of a diver, last three seasons. Korpikoski received small Selke consideration at age 24 and 25 but he hasn’t been the same player for the last several years.
  9. How bad was possession with him? 43 percent is very bad. Iiro Pakarinen is a better player and he has been in the league five minutes. All of the players on the Oilers showed better without Korpikoski than with him. Incredible.
  10. McLellan kept playing him. Yes, although his TOI has been going down for years. His 13:56 last season with Edmonton is his lowest total since he was 23—that was seven years ago.
  11. What is going on? He is eroding as a player. It happens you know.
  12. He isn’t even 30! Ryan Jones last season came at age 29. Korpikoski is 29.
  13. He has another year left, though. Oilers will buy him out.
  14. Seriously? Oh yeah. Maybe McLellan argues for him and they bring him back, but Edmonton’s forwards are pretty damned good. Korpikoski wouldn’t keep his job even if they brought him back for another year.
  15. I thought you liked Finns? I love Finns! This hurts me. I really hate what has happened here, and will probably overcompensate when it comes to Pakarinen.
  16. Did they use him the same way all year? No. During a period in mid-season (Jan-Feb) he played less and less often. The results were fascinating, Sunil Agnihotri looked into it.
  17. What did he find? Sunil Agnihotri: it’s hard to ignore the drop in his ice time over that 25 game stretch and how much better the Oilers were when it came to possession and their share of shots and goals. Source
  18. Does Sunil also hate Finnish people? Sunil and I do not hate Finnish people.
  19. Why this song? It is about endings, painful ones that come after a long period of good times and closeness. The most painful endings are those.
  20. It isn’t about endings at all.  That’s what great about country music. Devastating lyrics, heartbreak right down to the author being the last one to know. It is a perfect song.
  21. It is a nice tune. It’s beautiful. Rodney Crowell. I wish I could have written just one song this good, that cat wrote a hundred. Bastard.

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51 Responses to "RE 15-16 LAURI KORPIKOSKI: TILL I GAIN CONTROL AGAIN"

  1. wheatnoil says:

    If only I kept tally on forwards in my tracking. It seems like a disproportionate number of uncontrolled zone exits come off Korpikoski’s stick.

    Of course, maybe I just noticed his more because I kept saying “Dammit Korpse!” every time it happened.

  2. Alpine says:

    That Gordon trade seemed fishy at the time. I doubt Chia had any issue with the player type or having his cap hit for one more season. I had a heard a rumour that he requested a trade back to Arizona for family reasons so that seems reasonable.

    Wouldn’t mind Cracknell back as the 13th F next season. Seemed like a useful player who could play C too.

  3. Tarkus says:

    McDavid nominated for the Calder along with Panarin and Gostisbehere.

  4. AsiaOil says:

    If it’s any consolation – Gordon’s Corsi on was -12.41 and was 65GP 2-2-4 -7 for $3 million cap hit – so Korpse was probably “better”. Problem is that we are blessed with another year of Korpse

    I’d try trade him (unlikely) and then bury him in the minors if necessary. That $900,000 cap savings would at least cover most of Lander’s cap hit and get him fully off the books next summer – no dollar savings though.

    Edit

    Korpse to AHL = $1,600,000 cap hit in 16-17 ($900,000 extra cap)
    Korpse Buy Out = $500,000 cap hit in 16-17 ($2,000,000 extra cap)
    Korpse Buy Out = $1,000,000 cap hit in 17-18 ($1,000,000 less cap)

    Guess it depends on how important that $1 million in cap space will be in 17-18 versus 16-17

  5. Richard S.S. says:

    I understand the point Lowetide is making. I have five people I can talk about Lauri K., and I get five different opinions of what he is all different from mine.

  6. stush18 says:

    AsiaOil:
    If it’s any consolation – Gordon’s Corsi on was -12.41 and was 65GP 2-2-4-7 for $3 million cap hit – so Korpse was probably “better”. Problem is that we are blessed with another year of Korpse

    I’d try trade him (unlikely) and then bury him in the minors if necessary. That $900,000 cap savings would at least cover most of Lander’s cap hit and get him fully off the books next summer – no dollar savings though.

    Edit

    Korpse to AHL = $1,600,000 cap hit in 16-17 ($900,000 extra cap)
    Korpse Buy Out = $500,000 cap hit in 16-17 ($2,000,000 extra cap)
    Korpse Buy Out = $1,000,000 cap hit in 17-18 ($1,000,000 less cap)

    Guess it depends on how important that $1 million in cap space will be in 17-18 versus 16-17

    I think that’s the reasoning behind the trade obviously.

    You’re trading a more expensive, less useful player with a one year contract for a slightly more useful and cheaper player for two years. Pretty fair from both sides, and you hope korp is fast enough to be effective in mclellans system.

  7. Rondo says:

    Expected Draft Value

    https://bluebulletreport.com/2016/05/02/expected-draft-value-of-a-chl-forward-selected-top-90-overall/

    “The NHLP scores for some of the top forwards in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft are: Tkachuk 79, Nylander 71, Dubois 66, Brown 63, MacLeod 61, Gauthier 53, Jones 44”

  8. square_wheels says:

    Oh man that hit was a bit too late and on a vulnerable player. Letang has to ease up on that play.

    And Cherry blabbing about players ripping shots at goalies heads……just one more example of the league enabling bullshit to exist with no repercussions. For once I agree with him.

  9. John Chambers says:

    I’ve come around to the notion of PLD being the undisputed BPA at #4, accounting of course for the unpredictable nature of defensemen.

    PLD is a left shot. Presumably he won’t play in the NHL next season given his age.

    Might then there be a case to trade Taylor Hall in a package for Subban or Karlsson with the strategy being to metriculate Dubois into the LW role?

    Just remarking if anything that it makes a LH shot more disposable than had we been in a position to select #2 or #3.

  10. square_wheels says:

    John Chambers,

    Always draft BPA (in the position you hold).

    Trading down only works for me when your amateur scouts are rock solid.

    Our amateur scouts are not there yet – we should stay at 4.

  11. square_wheels says:

    I have nothing good to say about Korpse – load the trebuchet and launch him back to Europe.

    Has anyone else considered the historic moves of Chia and also the success model of uber-talents like Crosby, in the types of wingers best suited for them ?

    Chia added Recchi to a young-ish forward group. Crosby has/had Kunitz.

    Chia needs this player type for McD and Drai lines, as the more I research the Oilers GA – the ability of the winger to gain possession and exit the zone can’t be understated.

    We need a Pisani and a Kunitz…….where are we going to find them ?

  12. Doug McLachlan says:

    Ok, Korpse is a $2.5M underachieving winger.

    Calgary is trying to unload 33 yr-old RHS d-man and his $5.25M cap-hit.

    How much $ does Calgary have to retain to make a Korpse-Wideman deal make sense. Both on expiring contracts (I am assuming, as with Ference, we will not be forced to protect his NMC for the expansion draft).

  13. Ryan says:

    square_wheels:
    John Chambers,

    Always draft BPA (in the position you hold).

    Trading down only works for me when your amateur scouts are rock solid.

    Our amateur scouts are not there yet – we should stay at 4.

    I apparently crashed this blog one day when I asked what is the BPA? It sounds self-evident, but what does it really mean?

  14. G Money says:

    Ryan,

    You are asking the right question.

    I think those who criticize the ‘draft BPA’ strategy IMO do so because they don’t understand what BPA means.

    I have my own answer to what it is, but I’m certainly curious to hear others.

  15. dustrock says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Ok, Korpse is a $2.5M underachieving winger.

    Calgary is trying to unload 33 yr-old RHS d-man and his $5.25M cap-hit.

    How much $ does Calgary have to retain to make a Korpse-Wideman deal make sense. Both on expiring contracts (I am assuming, as with Ference, we will not be forced to protect his NMC for the expansion draft).

    Doug depends how tight we are against the cap. This is just trading for a different player who will screw our team on a nightly basis. Rather just buy Korpse out.

  16. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I wrote a thing about BPA a couple of years ago (though you wouldn’t know it… apparently when you get busy with life you lose your byline, which seems dodgy, but that’s neither here nor there, me or anyone else)

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2014/05/poll-winners-teams-always-take-the-bpa/

    TL;DR version: Teams always take the BPA, they just have a different standard than you do.

  17. G Money says:

    square_wheels: the success model of uber-talents like Crosby, in the types of wingers best suited for them ?

    The problem with trying to derive a success model from an uber-talent like Crosby is that the sample size is tiny, especially in the modern era. But even if you extend the era all the way back to the 80s, the sample size is too small to draw any real conclusions.

    This is also why I have an issue with those who claim that the only model to success for this team is to get a #1D “because every Cup Champ in the last x years has had one.”

    Again, those teams OTHER than PIT did not have a generational talent. And that’s too small a sample size to conclude anything about how you can or can’t build a team.

    Chia needs to create the rules around a generational player rather than try to follow historical rules that don’t exist. Barring a complete mental break in MTL or OTT, a #1D just won’t be available.

    So build with what you have: a generational C up front, two high grade C behind him, and a defense that has a complete skillset across 6 players, rather than one built around a 1D.

    The tl;dr version is this: when you have McDavid, you make your own rules, you don’t follow others.

  18. G Money says:

    LOL. I did not read Rom’s comment before I posted mine.

    Romulus Apotheosis: TL;DR version: Teams always take the BPA, they just have a different standard than you do.

    G Money: The tl;dr version is this: when you have McDavid, you make your own rules, you don’t follow others.

  19. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    When you think about Chia’s procurement last Summer there’s some evidence that they were working off old intel

    Bob Green not seeing Reinhart as a pro. Chia not really seeing him at all. Chia having a vague endorsement of Korp (“I’ve always had time for him” or somesuch), which always sounded like someone suddenly remembering a forgettable but not terrible sandwich they ate 5 years ago.

    Add to that the scouting dept in disarray with so many firings… you have to think part of the problem was there and hope that some of this has been ironed out by simply getting people in place and getting current intel.

  20. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    G Money:
    LOL.I did not read Rom’s comment before I posted mine.

    TL;DR version: 😉

  21. El Duderino says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    When you think about Chia’s procurement last Summer there’s some evidence that they were working off old intel

    Bob Green not seeing Reinhart as a pro. Chia not really seeing him at all. Chia having a vague endorsement of Korp (“I’ve always had time for him” or somesuch), which always sounded like someone suddenly remembering a forgettable but not terrible sandwich they ate 5 years ago.

    Add to that the scouting dept in disarray with so many firings… you have to think part of the problem was there and hope that some of this has been ironed out by simply getting people in place and getting current intel.

    After a dreadful lottery (I’ve been down since Saturday) this comment gives me some hope and comfort. But Pete has to keep Klowe and Katz away.

  22. Woodguy says:

    Steve Burtch with a real cool article on the new data that the OHL published this year and what we can learn from it (mostly shot location data)

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/using-analytics-show-ohl-snipers-best-shot-becoming-nhl-goal-scorers/

  23. Ryan says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    I wrote a thing about BPA a couple of years ago (though you wouldn’t know it… apparently when you get busy with life you lose your byline, which seems dodgy, but that’s neither here nor there, me or anyone else)

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2014/05/poll-winners-teams-always-take-the-bpa/

    TL;DR version: Teams always take the BPA, they just have a different standard than you do.

    Thanks.

    My personal irascibility with ‘draft bpa’ vs ‘draft for need’ false dichotomy that’s widely espoused here is that it completely ignores positional value…

    or more specifically that wingers have significantly less trade value.

    Taylor freaking Hall is one of the best young wingers in the game today.

    Realistically, if you were to trade him for a dman, who’s the best dman you could get in return without adding to the package?

  24. square_wheels says:

    G Money,

    I think it’s as simple as asking him. A brain like his is going to identify details about a winger that scouts and managers need to source for him.

    Details like how a player drifts to open area’s, do they keep their stick in passing lanes, can they skate with him (obvious), do they shoot immediately or look for a hole first ?

    The Maroon goal where Connor mentioned noticing that 3 team-mates were in his field of view, so he knew Maroon had to be lurking on that back post – then rifled a backhand at the far post where I could have chipped in.

    Find a clever player like Maroon, that’s quicker, a RW, is Pisani like in his own zone and is capable in the Ozone……good fucking luck containing him.

    My vote is Already a Chia player……….Ericsson.

  25. Woodguy says:

    He wasn’t even Ryan Jones.

    Ouch.

  26. rickithebear says:

    from last thread:

    Top 4 Defensemen with this years
    HSCA D rank
    and
    Comp of 207 D

    Oilers
    Fayne #26 comp, #181 hsca D
    Klefbolm #36 comp, #57 hsca D
    Sekera #62 Comp, #174 hsca D
    Davidson 113 comp, #35 HSCA D

    Dallas
    Gologoski, #43 comp, #206 hsca d
    Klingberg, #46 comp, #194 hsca d
    Oduya #67 comp, #159 hsca D
    Russell #90 comp, #178 hsca D
    Demers #112 comp, #136 hsca D

    Nashville
    Josi #37 comp #9 HSCA D
    Weber #45 Comp #2 HSCA D
    Ekholm #82 Comp #8 HSCA D
    Ellis #113 comp #13 HSCA D

    Islanders
    Hamonic #33 comp, #184 hsca d
    De Haan #44 comp, #66 hsca D
    Leddy #51 Comp, #172 hsca D
    Boychuk, #61 comp; #128 hsca D

    Penguins
    Dumoulin #9 Comp, #27 hsca D
    Lovejoy #12 comp, #45 hsca D
    Letang, #20 comp, #99 hsca D
    Maata, #30 comp, #74 hsca D
    Daley, #100 comp, #90 hsca D

    Sharks
    Vlasic #23 comp #1 HSCA D
    Braun #28 comp #3 HSCA D
    Martin #32 comp, #113 hsca D
    Burns, #39 comp, #109 hsca D

    Blues
    Pietrbngelo #57 comp, #148 hsca D
    Bouwmeester, #59 comp, #180 hsca d
    Gunnarson #87 comp, #33 hsca D
    Shattenkirk, #118 comp, #91 hsca D
    Parayko #139 comp, #18 hsca D

    Capitals
    Alzner #38 comp,#51 hsca D
    Niskanen #41 comp, #30 hsca D
    Carlson #129 comp, #113 hsca D
    Orpik #140 comp, #44 hsca D

  27. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ryan: My personal irascibility with ‘draft bpa’ vs ‘draft for need’ false dichotomy that’s widely espoused here is that it completely ignores positional value…

    I think you need to distinguish between “completely ignoring” and “not valuing to your desired threshold”

    I’d wager that every list that had Hall above Seguin (to take your example) was fully aware of the positions they played, the value of those positions to NHL teams, and the chance they’d play those positions in the NHL.

    The argument isn’t actually about who’s the BPA. It’s about what jumble of criteria people use to rank players.

  28. square_wheels says:

    rickithebear,

    Ricki – ELIM5 ? What are you saying about shit players like Orpik @ 44 vs Petrelangelo at 148 ?

    This needs to be weighted and compared to zone play/possession of most common forwards and D partners.

    It’s highlighting some interesting items but without more context it’s like reading Hebrew.

  29. knighttown says:

    Malkin with less than 4 minutes in the 3rd tonight. Tarasenko feuding with Hitch about ice time. Coaches are pushing the high skilled forwards to the margins of relevance again this playoffs just like they did to Stamkos last year.

    But the thing is, it’s working.

    From a coaches perspective Barry Brust and Matt Cullen win you more games than Geno Malkin or Steven Stamkos.

    Such a shame for the sport though. Can you imagine having LeBron play 2 minutes of the 4th quarter? But in hockey its role players playing a role! Gritensity!

    One the opposite end of the spectrum the era of the stud defenseman is well underway. Letang at 28 minutes again tonight. Pietrangelo over 30. Leddy. Josi. Keith. Hedman. Keith. Doughty.

    Skilled forwards don’t matter anymore and top defensmen have never been more important.

    If there’s any hope in hell Hall + gets you Subban you do it.

    if Eberle or the number 4 as a trade down gets you Hamonic do that too.

    Put McDavid, Nuge and Draisatl down the middle with Subban, Hamonic, Sekera, Klefbom, Davidson and Fayne/Nurse in the top 7 D spots. Run flotsam and jetsam on the wings.

  30. AsiaOil says:

    square_wheels: Find a clever player like Maroon, that’s quicker, a RW, is Pisani like in his own zone and is capable in the Ozone……good fucking luck containing him.

    I know I’m boring people to death – but the name of this player is Craig Smith – and after a down year he’s probably obtainable. Eriksson would be fine as well and only costs dollars.

  31. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    You should use RelHDSCA

    Teams that play a high event game like DAL have players near the bottom, but if you flipped it to HDSAF they’d all be near the top.

    You have great stuff but you need to use Relative metrics to eliminate the coaching / systems bias.

    Petry is a good example.

    MTL 15/16 9.81
    EDM 14/15 11.74
    EDM 13/14 12.33

    Now Rel

    MTL 15/16 -0.79
    EDM 14/15 -0.76
    EDM 13/14 -0.17

    I swear to Gord Mr. TheBear we’ve got you to quit using SV% to evaluate Dmen, now if you start to use Rel rates you’ll turn lead into gold.

  32. Ryan says:

    Ryan: Thanks.

    My personal irascibility with ‘draft bpa’ vs ‘draft for need’ false dichotomy that’s widely espoused here is that it completely ignores positional value…

    or more specifically that wingers have significantly less trade value.

    Taylor freaking Hall is one of the best young wingers in the game today.

    Realistically, if you were to trade him for a dman, who’s the best dman you could get in return without adding to the package?

    The short answer is that you probably wouldn’t want to trade Hall for any of the dmen you could get in return by trading him (Hamonic, Shattenkirk, Barrie, Vatanen)…

  33. square_wheels says:

    AsiaOil,

    He’s another I’ve always liked. I will maintain my stance that our wingers have to be competent in the Dzone or even improving the D (I like G’s version where we just have 6 NHL D clustered between 4-2’s) will not help us end the tire fires that are the Oilers Achilles.

    I can’t count the zone exits completely fucked by incompetent/lazy/stupid wingers that poor Nuge and the D from Delia had to attempt to sort.

    Fix the fucking D and add 2 NHL RW’s from the Pisani mold. Please/thanks.

  34. AsiaOil says:

    square_wheels:
    AsiaOil,

    He’s another I’ve always liked. I will maintain my stance that our wingers have to be competent in the Dzone or even improving the D (I like G’s version where we just have 6 NHL D clustered between 4-2’s) will not help us end the tire fires that are the Oilers Achilles.

    I can’t count the zone exits completely fucked by incompetent/lazy/stupid wingers that poor Nuge and the D from Delia had to attempt to sort.

    Fix the fucking D and add 2 NHL RW’s from the Pisani mold. Please/thanks.

    You’ve got me completely sold and it will take a lot to convince me that our talented centers (who also tend to be defensively responsible) have not compromised their offense to cover up for wingers who can’t or won’t carry their fair share of the defensive load. RNH particularly comes to mind. The hell I want McDavid-Nuge-Drai compromising their offensive output for RW who are chasing bees or only able to skate fast in one direction. With those 3 centers – plus Hall-Pou-Maroon on the left side – we simply need responsible two way RW who can free up our centers offense and cash the opportunities they create at a decent rate.

  35. knighttown says:

    One thing I might nitpick you on is that based on actual results Korpikoskis season was merely bad not dreadful. He was 8th on the team in goals and blew away your reasonable expectations.

    The thing is, all signs point to this level of “success” being a mirage. He’s lucky to have been only “bad” this year as his underlying stats say hell regress from here.

    It’s sort of like a pitcher that goes 9-11 on a terrible team with an ERA OF 3.75 but an xFIP of 5.25. Not a bad season but get out before the roof caves in.

  36. Oilspill says:

    square_wheels,

    The D usually gain possession. Sometimes the center. Seldom 5he winger. Winger maintain possession.

  37. Oilspill says:

    knighttown:
    Malkin with less than 4 minutes in the 3rd tonight. Tarasenko feuding with Hitch about ice time. Coaches are pushing the high skilled forwards to the margins of relevance again this playoffs just like they did to Stamkos last year.

    But the thing is, it’s working.

    From a coaches perspective Barry Brust and Matt Cullen win you more games than Geno Malkin or Steven Stamkos.

    Such a shame for the sport though. Can you imagine having LeBron play 2 minutes of the 4th quarter?But in hockey its role players playing a role! Gritensity!

    One the opposite end of the spectrum the era of the stud defenseman is well underway. Letang at 28 minutes again tonight. Pietrangelo over 30. Leddy. Josi. Keith. Hedman. Keith. Doughty.

    Skilled forwards don’t matter anymore and top defensmen have never been more important.

    If there’s any hope in hell Hall + gets you Subban you do it.

    if Eberle or the number 4 as a trade down gets you Hamonic do that too.

    Put McDavid, Nuge and Draisatl down the middle with Subban, Hamonic, Sekera, Klefbom, Davidson and Fayne/Nurse in the top 7 D spots. Run flotsam and jetsam on the wings.

    Getting Subban and Hamonic is nothing short of delusional. Good idea not even possible. Pk would want to go to a high profile low tax market. Not Edmmonton.

  38. Oil Fan 99 says:

    I’d like Mikkel Boedker in Korpikoski’s spot. He is fast enough to keep up with the young guns and has a good 2-way game. Perfect fit for the third line and could move up if need be. He’s a free agent and won’t cost a ton. Third line of Maroon and Boedker would be great. Their in there prime, can play with skill and useful on special teams. All that’s missing is the third line centre.

  39. Colieo87 says:

    Guys and ladies. Edmonton doesn’t need trade for a pk or harmonic. All they need is a 2d that can handle the point even its left shot. Its all about body positioning

  40. slopitch says:

    knighttown:
    Malkin with less than 4 minutes in the 3rd tonight. Tarasenko feuding with Hitch about ice time. Coaches are pushing the high skilled forwards to the margins of relevance again this playoffs just like they did to Stamkos last year.

    But the thing is, it’s working.

    From a coaches perspective Barry Brust and Matt Cullen win you more games than Geno Malkin or Steven Stamkos.

    Such a shame for the sport though. Can you imagine having LeBron play 2 minutes of the 4th quarter?But in hockey its role players playing a role! Gritensity!

    One the opposite end of the spectrum the era of the stud defenseman is well underway. Letang at 28 minutes again tonight. Pietrangelo over 30. Leddy. Josi. Keith. Hedman. Keith. Doughty.

    Skilled forwards don’t matter anymore and top defensmen have never been more important.

    If there’s any hope in hell Hall + gets you Subban you do it.

    if Eberle or the number 4 as a trade down gets you Hamonic do that too.

    Put McDavid, Nuge and Draisatl down the middle with Subban, Hamonic, Sekera, Klefbom, Davidson and Fayne/Nurse in the top 7 D spots. Run flotsam and jetsam on the wings.

    I mostly agree with this. It’s a defence wins league. We’ve saw it with Pronger. We’ve seen Chara, Doughty, Keith lead there teams in a similar fashion. Small sample size be damned, the importance of a 28 min a night dman in the playoffs has never been higher IMO.

    McDavid does change things though. Get 2 RD who can defend and move the puck and replace guys like Lauri “dump the puck to the neutral zone and resume defending” Korpse with Eriksson/Silferberg types and it’s go time.

  41. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Oil Fan 99,

    Boedker will probably cost $4million per year.

  42. square_wheels says:

    Oilspill,

    Correct.

  43. OF17 says:

    There might be a chance to trade down with Arizona. They’re sitting at #7 and have more of a need for forwards than D. Unfortunately for them, that looks like just outside the likely #1-6 forward slots. They also hold pick #20. Could be a chance to trade #4 for #7 + #20, maybe with a 3rd thrown in from our side.

    As nice as Dubois is, making that trade likely means grabbing Chychrun and Fabbro plus whoever we get with our 2nd. That would be a massive improvement to the prospect pool, and it would give you more than enough coverage to trade Nurse for an immediate improvement.

  44. GCW_69 says:

    square_wheels:
    John Chambers,

    Always draft BPA (in the position you hold).

    Trading down only works for me when your amateur scouts are rock solid.

    Our amateur scouts are not there yet – we should stay at 4.

    What defines best? We have seen two instances recently where two draft choices were very close:
    1) Taylor vs Tyler
    2) Nurse vs Ristolainen

    By the numbers, one could argue that Hall and Nurse were narrowly ahead of their competition. But in both cases, the alternative played a role that is harder to fill (right shot centre/first line centre and right shot defender). Does the definition of best consider positional impact or rarity? Should it?

    People make statements like take BPA always, but until there is a proven definition of “best”, that’s just noise.

    I do fully agree that trading down requires trusting your scouts, and there is little from Edmonton’s history (or Boston’s) to suggest that is a good idea.

  45. frjohnk says:

    OF17:
    There might be a chance to trade down with Arizona. They’re sitting at #7 and have more of a need for forwards than D. Unfortunately for them, that looks like just outside the likely #1-6 forward slots. They also hold pick #20. Could be a chance to trade #4 for #7 + #20, maybe with a 3rd thrown in from our side.

    As nice as Dubois is, making that trade likely means grabbing Chychrun and Fabbro plus whoever we get with our 2nd. That would be a massive improvement to the prospect pool, and it would give you more than enough coverage to trade Nurse for an immediate improvement.

    Here is a recent article on trading up/down
    http://theleafsnation.com/2016/5/1/is-it-worth-it-to-trade-up-in-the-nhl-draft

    In your scenario of using the 4th overall and a 3rd rounder for the 7th and 20th, Id look at taking the 20th and the 31st and moving up. Would that be enough to get into the top 10? top 12?

    Leave the draft with Chychrun and Brown?

    In this scenarios, Chia needs willing dance partners. I’m not sure there will be.

  46. OF17 says:

    GCW_69: What defines best?We have seen two instances recently where two draft choices were very close:
    1) Taylor vs Tyler
    2) Nurse vs Ristolainen

    By the numbers, one could argue that Hall and Nurse were narrowly ahead of their competition.But in both cases, the alternative played a role that is harder to fill (right shot centre/first line centre and right shot defender).Does the definition of best consider positional impact or rarity?Should it?

    People make statements like take BPA always, but until there is a proven definition of “best”, that’s just noise.

    I do fully agree that trading down requires trusting your scouts, and there is little from Edmonton’s history (or Boston’s) to suggest that is a good idea.

    I think that it should take position into account at least somewhat. If I’m given the choice between two NHL defenders where everything is equal except handedness, I’m taking the RHD every time. Same for RHC. So if you think they really are equal, you should take the righty, because they’re going to be more valuable every step of the way.

    It’s not the only thing to take into account though. I don’t think Seguin would’ve survived in this market. Hell, Hall is as close to a model citizen as you could expect someone to be, and yet there have still been incessant rumors about all sorts of things with him. Seguin definitely seems to have found a balance between enjoying life and playing hockey, and honestly, I don’t want him to change anything about his personality, but I think the Oilers would’ve lost him about the same time Boston did if we had drafted him. We needed a savior at that time, and Seguin wasn’t ready for it. He’s certainly been Dallas’s savior, but he wouldn’t’ve been ours.

  47. Blue Bullet says:

    Rondo:
    Expected Draft Value

    https://bluebulletreport.com/2016/05/02/expected-draft-value-of-a-chl-forward-selected-top-90-overall/

    “The NHLP scores for some of the top forwards in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft are: Tkachuk 79, Nylander 71, Dubois 66, Brown 63, MacLeod 61, Gauthier 53, Jones 44”

    Thanks for promoting the work.

    Tkachuk/Nylander fall into the group whose expected draft value is:

    89% chance of playing 100 games, average career PPG of those players that reach 100 games is 0.63

    Past draft picks that fall in this group are:

    Marner, Brendl, Bennett, Dal Colle, R. Strome, Torres, Gagner, Brassard, Voracek, P.M. Bouchard, Couturier, Ehlers, Meier, Couture, Tanguay, Little

    Dubois – 100% chance of playing 100 games, PPG 0.52

    E. Kane, Weiss, T. Connolly, Schenn, Hartnell, Monahan, Brule, B. Connolly, Upshall, Lupul, Skinner, Kadri

  48. slopitch says:

    Blue Bullet,

    Interesting that the 100% likely group has a lower ppg. I can’t really think of a good reason why..,

  49. Jethro Tull says:

    http://www.tsn.ca/flames-fire-head-coach-hartley-1.482719

    HAHAHAHA! Your tears sustain me, Calgary.

  50. rickithebear says:

    knighttown:
    Malkin with less than 4 minutes in the 3rd tonight. Tarasenko feuding with Hitch about ice time. Coaches are pushing the high skilled forwards to the margins of relevance again this playoffs just like they did to Stamkos last year.

    But the thing is, it’s working.

    From a coaches perspective Barry Brust and Matt Cullen win you more games than Geno Malkin or Steven Stamkos.

    Such a shame for the sport though. Can you imagine having LeBron play 2 minutes of the 4th quarter?But in hockey its role players playing a role! Gritensity!

    One the opposite end of the spectrum the era of the stud defenseman is well underway. Letang at 28 minutes again tonight. Pietrangelo over 30. Leddy. Josi. Keith. Hedman. Keith. Doughty.

    Skilled forwards don’t matter anymore and top defensmen have never been more important.

    If there’s any hope in hell Hall + gets you Subban you do it.

    if Eberle or the number 4 as a trade down gets you Hamonic do that too.

    Put McDavid, Nuge and Draisatl down the middle with Subban, Hamonic, Sekera, Klefbom, Davidson and Fayne/Nurse in the top 7 D spots. Run flotsam and jetsam on the wings.

    Any net driven sport see those that penetrate towards the net rewarded.

    I used to love the NBA!

    Specifically the great Detroit teams.
    Thomas; Rodman; Lambier; Johnson;……
    a great physical team.
    but stars were getting hurt.

    So they created the 3 pt shot which rewards players for being chicken shits.
    it should be:
    1 pt from perimeter
    2 pt in the key
    and
    3 points for the no off foul circle.

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