TOTAL HAMONIC DISTORTION

I think we (mostly) have the problems sussed out for the Oilers, the trick is to address all of those problems without ripping up the foundation—and there are some outstanding pieces in place. This is my list for Peter Chiarelli this spring and summer (previously published here):

CHIARELLI SUMMER LIST

  1. Top-pairing D to partner with Klefbom (think Travis Hamonic/Jason Demers)
  2. Second-pairing RHD to partner with Sekera (think Tyson Barrie/Sami Vatanen)
  3. Acquire RHC with some skill (Small group available. Tommy Wingels? Tyler Bozak?)
  4. Offload unwanted contract (Lauri Korpikoski)
  5. Backup goalie (Jhonas Enroth)
  6. Find value contracts (Davidson, Maroon but also possibly Khaira, Oesterle)
  7. Re-stock the system partly through college and CHL signings (big summer)
  8. Build up the system (especially forwards) via draft (big summer)

In the days that have followed, we have identified a possible trade and free agent list (with the goalies still to come). Scott Cullen of TSN goes through all 30 NHL teams and reviews their season, projects their future, and finds solutions to each team’s problems. I can only imagine the size of his war room (maybe he has dozens of those civil war models on a table, depicting famous battles), but appreciate his effort every year. Here are (as far as I can tell) Scott’s solutions to the Oilers problems (hat tip to Fifth Cartel):

  1. RNH for Hamonic and Kulemin (50% retained)
  2. Chris Kelly and Troy Brouwer signings
  3. Garret Wilson (signing/trade?)
  4. Korpikoski buyout

Let’s apply Scott’s solution to my original list:

  1. Top-pairing D to partner with Klefbom (Travis Hamonic)
  2. Second-pairing RHD to partner with Sekera (none)
  3. Acquire RHC with some skill (Troy Brouwer)
  4. Offload unwanted contract (Lauri Korpikoski)
  5. Backup goalie (none)
  6. Find value contracts (Garrett Wilson, Chris Kelly)
  7. Scott also added Nikolai Kulemin to make the Nuge trade work

Cullen does not find a RHC, but does give Todd McLellan another right (Brouwer) to help with the radio up front. I enjoy these looks because they are not a biased view. Scott does a lot of the things we have discussed here, but his solutions are original and interesting. Here is what I assume would be the 23-man roster:

CULLENS OIL

  • One of the main features here is that Cullen has added substantial veteran presence to the forward group—especially the right side. He deals Nuge (to get a top-pairing defender) and replaces him with a veteran in Kulemin. He also spends some of the free-agent money on another veteran (Troy Brouwer) who lands in a very good spot.
  • We are going to argue over the handedness, but I like his defensive group (I would add one more piece, but Cullen may be correct in adding just one—the market often dictates how much can be done in one summer).
  • I like Nurse on the third pair with a veteran. A solid choice.
  • You may not like the Nuge for Hamonic and Kulemin deal, but we know the value of RNH this summer is less than it would have been a year ago. As painful as it might be to acknowledge it, and as you know I am not in favor of dealing him, this could be the path chosen by Peter Chiarelli.

One thing Cullen’s look at the Oilers shows: My list of eight items might be a little aggressive. We all have our opinions of course, but his look at Edmonton is well worth the read and I hope you do in the future.

Cam and I chatted on twitter yesterday, he brought up the idea of Hamonic and Strome coming over from Brooklyn. What would it take? He also mentions Leon, WG (heretofore known as fellow) and I talked about the possibility of Draisaitl being the ask on a trade like this. I do not want to deal the German, but McDavid-Nuge works as a 1-2 and if the Oilers can solve the blue then you have to consider it. I don’t have him on my Chiarelli asset list, but I bet there are conversations about him.

CHIARELLI ASSET LIST

  1. No. 4 overall selection
  2. Jordan Eberle
  3. 2017 1st round selection
  4. Young LHD (Darnell Nurse, Brandon Davidson, Griffin Reinhart)
  5. Benoit Pouliot
  6. Nail Yakupov
  7. Cap space (Edmonton might be able to get a player like Bozak on the cheap because of it)

Elliotte Friedman has Caggiula deciding soon on his destination and these other cats are interesting as well. Peter Chiarelli needs to re-stock the system, so if they plan on trading more picks then let’s see action.

  • Chris Dilks about Caggiula: Caggiula is a smaller forward, but plays with tremendous effort and grit. He makes life miserable for the opposition on the forecheck and plays a strong two-way game. He’s having a sensational senior season as a linemate of first round NHL picks Brock Boeser and Nick Schmaltz. It’s unlikely he is the same type of scorer at the next level, but would make an outstanding bottom six energy player. Source
  • DJ Powers on Oksanen: Oksanen is versatile in that he can play both forward and defense almost equally well. His style has often been described as that of a rover. Oksanen possesses good size (6’3”, 209 lbs.) and utilizes his strong frame at both ends of the ice. This has been especially evident in his drives to the net and in his ability to protect the puck. He is a strong yet fluid skater with very good foot speed. One of Oksanen’s attributes that scouts have taken particular notice of is his shot; he possesses a hard, lethal shot and can get pucks to the net. Source
  • Travis St. Denis is a very small forward but delivered insane numbers in the NCAA with Quinnipiac. He improved every year, I bet he plays pro hockey for a long time (if he chooses). The question is how high can he fly? He was part of that terrific 2011-12 Penticton Vees team that included Mike Reilly and recent Condors signing Joey Benik.

That’s how I felt the first time I saw McDavid, and every time since. He is so fast it is shocking. I missed watching him—could not wait to tune in this morning. cannot wait until training camp.

WHERE WILL I RANK LOGAN BROWN?

I got an email on Tuesday asking me how far Logan Brown will move up in my Sunday night rankings. This is as a result of Craig Button’s mock draft on Saturday after the lottery, where Brown landed inside the top five overall. How much will Brown move up on my list? He won’t move up at all. Why? My list rewards offense heavily, adores two-way ability and (since the Hedman draft) shies away from pushing defensemen up the list. Being 6.06, in and of itself, holds no extra value. Let me show you why Brown is ranked No. 17 on my list. Here is the NHLE for CHL forwards in the top 20 overall:

  • (4) C Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cape Breton (QMJHL): NHLE: 34 points.
  • (5)  L Matthew Tkachuk, London Knights (OHL): NHLE: 49 points.
  • (11) R Alex DeBrincat, Erie Otters (OHL): NHLE: 44 points.
  • (15) R Alexander Nylander, Mississauga (OHL): NHLE: 35 points.
  • (16) R Vitalii Abramov, Gatineau Olympiques (QMJHL). NHLE: 31 points.
  • (17) C Logan Brown, Windsor Spitfires (OHL): NHLE: 33 points.
  • (19) C Michael McLeod, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL): NHLE: 28 points.

From what I have read, a lot of Brown’s value is offensive and that his size is a curio, but not a big part of his game.

  • Steve Kournianos, The Draft Analyst: Logan is a physical specimen indeed, using a massive wingspan and strength to win his puck battles and transition quickly to offense. He can be a joy to watch, using above-average speed but a powerful long stride and reach to protect the puck off the rush. He’s an excellent passer, blessed with a sixth sense to anticipate and dissect the defensive scheme presented to him. Brown owns a very heavy shot — one of the draft’s best among forwards — which he can fire with accuracy off the pass via a quick release.  And while Brown plays the finesse game at a high level, he has no problem crashing the net for a loose puck, or positioning himself in the trenches for a deflection. You’d love to see him play with fire on a consistent basis, and we get a sense that he should be far more dominant than his numbers indicate. Nevertheless, he has top-line center upside and isn’t too far from making his NHL debut. Source

hurdle gif

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

This morning, we hit the air a little early (right after the Canada-USA WHC game). Scheduled to appear, TSN 1260:

  • Steve Lansky, Big Mouth Sports. Fort MacMurray, Canada-USA, Draft lottery, lots.
  • Yukon Jack, 100.3 The Bear. Yukon is heading back to the library, and you might want to join him.
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. What to do with that No. 4 overall pick (a brilliant idea I had that Iwanyk is trying to claim credit for).

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84 Responses to "TOTAL HAMONIC DISTORTION"

  1. Jethro Tull says:

    Taylor Goal!

    Oh, and Cory Perry waxes lyrical about McDavid.

    Are you setting us up for bad news LT? You always put that very distracting GIF on when you are saying things that are true but we don’t want to hear.

  2. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Players who are substantially bigger than their opposition in Junior who don’t dominate make me nervous.

    The gap in size and strength between Brown and some of the 16/17/18 year old opposition he’s lining up against (not to mention being bigger than the older players) is massive.

    He will still be a big guy at higher levels, but the gap shrinks by quite a bit.

    If he only puts up those points when the gap is huge, I worry about where the offense goes when he can’t easily fall back on being bigger.

  3. Ryder says:

    With the deal Cullen offered, it seems he places more/equal value on Hamonic then RNH as he says we have to take back a 50% Kulemin to make it work. Do you guys think that this bias in undervaluing our young forwards (and the 4th overall) because of our surplus is limited to the media or it extends to the GMs as well?

  4. dustrock says:

    I’m still pissed about the no-goal for Pavelski last night. I stopped watching the godsdamned NFL because everything became a video review and the rules were impenetrable.

    Now the NHL is becoming the same thing. Pavelski makes an absolutely amazing play and the NHL robs him of it.

    Anyway, on Brown – people are comparing him to Thornton – just reminding people Thornton was a beanpole out of junior, but his stats were a lotttttttttttt more convincing than Brown’s.

    As were Draisaitl’s stats, TBH.

    Brown should be able to smack guys around and though he’s had some impressive games, just seems to risky.

    Don’t the stats tell us that points in junior is one of the best indicators of points in the NHL?

    Didn’t we go through this last year with Lawson Crouse?

  5. Cameron says:

    dustrock,

    I can’t see them reaching for Brown at 4. Not with Chychrun on the board.

  6. rickithebear says:

    LT:
    so guys who have not shown the slightest abilty to Defend 1st comp at even are to be Klefbom’s partner.
    They are both 1st comp anchor Dmen.

    BOAT ANCHORS!

  7. prairieschooner says:

    For the World Championships if you guys are looking for someone other than Canada
    Kazakhstan has Nigel Dawes playing for them.
    His dad is a good friend of mine and is en route (Copenhagen today)
    Nigel has played for Barys Astana in the KHL for the last 5 years.He has been scoring lots of goals for them.Kazakhstan is in the other pool so no conflicts

  8. Jaxon says:

    Oksanen looks very interesting. I wish we knew how much he played forward and how much he played defense so he could better suss out his comparisons. I’m sure MacLennan would love to have an offensive D who can play up much like he had in Brent Burns or like Dustin Byfuglien. Too bad he’s left-handed but, given his F/D flexibility, I don’t think it would matter as much. They need LW prospects to stock the fairly bare cupboards there as well.

  9. prairieschooner says:

    We have a lot of belief in Klef but i have a niggling concern about his injury track record
    Could he be one of those guys?
    Hope not

  10. Caramel Batman says:

    Cullen’s trade is pretty bad but this Cameron fellow’s idea is catastrophic. Strome is the Islanders version of Yakupov. You take him as the throw-in but you don’t trade substantial assets for him.

    Watching the playoffs it is striking how many good players these teams have. What is also striking is that they didn’t get that way by giving up something to get something. There is only one way to get better, get good players for free. That means:

    1) Draft well and develop those players.
    2) make good free agent signings.
    3) win trades.

    If you are justifying a trade by saying it is win-win for both teams because you have to give up something to get something, you just lost the trade and now your team is worse.

    Look at every good team. They are good because they won trades straight out and developed their players internally.

    Dallas: Seguin and Spezza.
    St. Louis: The Brouwer trade was terrible a straight up loss made up by the emergence of Fabri and Parayko.
    San Jose: Stole Brent Burns.
    Nashville: perhaps the exception with the Johansen trade but they were dominated by Anaheim and aren’t one of the top 8 teams.
    Washington: The Oshie trade was a steal.
    Pittsburg: Hagelin, Kessel, Daley all pickup on on the cheap.
    TB: Unbelievable development, noteworthy for the trades they didn’t make
    Islanders: Also not a top 8 team, but got Boychuk and Leddy for very cheap. Would be better without the disastrous Vanek deals.

    So there is a lesson here. If you aren’t the clear winner in a deal you shouldn’t make the deal. Hold on to your cards. Give to get trades are losing propositions. If you are dealing RNH, Hall, or Eberle you need to be getting someone better than them back. It’s that simple.

  11. Jaxon says:

    rickithebear,

    If they were able to get Jason Demers, Kevan Miller and maybe even Zach Redmond via free agency would that satisfy the right side?

    Klefbom – Demers
    Sekera – Miller
    Davidson – Fayne
    Nurse – Redmond

    I could see Davidson going out to get a yound RHD as well though.

  12. Jethro Tull says:

    Caramel Batman: If you are justifying a trade by saying it is win-win for both teams because you have to give up something to get something, you just lost the trade and now your team is worse.

    Nope. It’s about balance. You have too many skilled forwards, yet you need a skilled d-man. So you target someone with too many skilled d-men that they can’t pay and you trade.

    If I need a car and a guy is asking $5000 for a car that is worth $5000 and I pay him $5000, then it’s win-win. Basic bargaining is the same, no matter the commodity.

    What you are saying makes sense in theory, but the reality is different. Otherwise there would be absolutely no movement of players within the NHL.

  13. leadfarmer says:

    Normally I’m not a fan of trading down, have your board ready and don’t overthink it, go with the guy you think is the best. But if someone is crazy enough that they want to trade up to draft Brown in the top 5 then I would do it. It’s amazing how size makes GMs do crazy things at the draft, picking Plante with a mid 1st rounder included.

  14. leadfarmer says:

    I for one would be against starting the season with the C depth chart of McDavid Drai LaTestTube and BeLander Triangle. Injuries happen and you are one injury away from complete disaster. LaTestTube is barely good enough as a third liner, no way I would be ok with him spending any time in the top 6. Belander is a spare forward caliber player. Coach is ok putting Hendricks as a center but I like him better as a winger. I would much rather have depth at center even if it costs some wingers.

  15. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    I can’t take any proposal that includes trading Davidson seriously.

    His value outside of this organization won’t be huge. He is not a known commodity outside of Edmonton. Any GM making a play for him is doing it because he thinks he can steal him from Edmonton, bottom line.

    He’s a 24 year old Dman who plays the game in such a way to increase our winning percentage without racking up the numbers that lead to salary increases. He was developed internally, has ties to the City, has captained our AHL team….. and we have him for 2 more years for less than $1.5 million.

    For the love of all that is holy don’t trade him. There is 0 chance of winning that deal. 0.

  16. speeds says:

    Difficult to handicap Caggiula sweepstakes, but sense is it's down to VAN or EDM. Believe PHI, CHI, PIT, NYR and OTT are all out. We'll see.— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) May 6, 2016

  17. dustrock says:

    Caramel Batman,

    San Jose stole Burns? In hindsight, yes.

    But they traded Setoguchi, Charlie Coyle, and a 1st for 1 year of Burns.

    Wilson rolled the bones and it turned out real good.

    Meanwhile we’re nickel-and-diming 1 year of Barrie or Shattenkirk.

  18. Магия 10 says:

    Not in favour of total hamonic distortion. Perfectly fine with some simple hamonic motion this spring.

  19. Ducey says:

    dustrock:
    I’m still pissed about the no-goal for Pavelski last night.I stopped watching the godsdamned NFL because everything became a video review and the rules were impenetrable.

    Now the NHL is becoming the same thing.Pavelski makes an absolutely amazing play and the NHL robs him of it.

    I agree the rules are murky but Pavelski steamrolled the goalie and then made an amazing play.

    Right call.

  20. Магия 10 says:

    Bohologo: I’m not a baseball person, but this is a great read about stats guys who get to run a club:
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-what-happened-when-we-tried-to-play-moneyball-without-any-money/

    And cheating—was this cheating?—has never been all that far removed from sabermetrics. Read any profile of Branch Rickey, perhaps the first sabermetrician (though the word didn’t yet exist) in professional baseball, the Dodgers GM who signed Jackie Robinson and hired a stathead assistant and built up the first farm systems and more or less dominated Major League Baseball for decades, and there’s an undercurrent through it all: This dude cheats! Rickey devised the “desk contract,” whereby he would sign a young player to a contract but file that contract not with the league but to a desk drawer. The kid would be sent off to play for a farm team, essentially (and unknowingly) still auditioning for a job, and if he didn’t pan out Rickey would simply release him—and disappear the contract. Rickey’s sins, baseball’s commissioner once said, were “as big as the universe.”

  21. dustrock says:

    Ducey: I agree the rules are murky but Pavelski steamrolled the goalie and then made an amazing play.

    Right call.

    Won’t get into a debate here because it’s moot, but Pavelski jumped up to grab the puck and was hit by Gaustad, which to me is the difference.

    I’m a Sharks fan so obviously I’m going to see it that way, but my bigger complaint is just the impenetrable rules and video review, which is what made the NFL so frustrating. There really seems to be a lack of consistency and even the refs seem to understand the rules differently.

    There is nothing like watching sports happen in real time, and having goals decide games and series on broken plays is part of the game.

  22. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    LT,

    How does Caggiula compare to Arcobello or Andrew Miller?

  23. Lynas1 says:

    Personally, I think taking a D at 4 (if they use the pick) is a bad idea. It’ll be multiple seasons before they might be an impact. My money is on Dubois. He’s a Chiarelli type with size, speed, strength, puck protection, and great intangiàbles.

    I’d also rather go with 97 and 29 as our top two Cs over 97-93. My reasons being that the Oilers are in the west. 97-93 just feels too much like an east team to me. I like 29’s ability to win faceoffs and protect the puck. I don’t see as much of that from 93. Just my feeling.

  24. Ducey says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    LT,

    How does Caggiula compare to Arcobello or Andrew Miller?

    If he signs with EDM he will be better than those guys. If he signs with VAN he has poor hockey sense and will be a bust.

    Seriously, he had 51 pts in 39 games as a senior. Miller had 41 in 37. Arco had 36 in 34.

    Caggiula also had 60 PIMs. That’s consistent with the reports he is hard on the puck.

  25. Lynas1 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Completely agree.

  26. UKOil says:

    Long time reader but first time poster here thanks for your tireless efforts LT, really love your work!

    Flyers and Oilers supporter here, can’t wait to see what PC does this summer!

  27. rickithebear says:

    Desjardins einvesteda lot of time parsing out data for translated NHL performance by age.
    Draft (17) 50% – 75% -> 50% difference -> 2.08% per month
    Draft +1 (18) 40% – 50% -> 20% diffrence -> .83% per month
    Draft +2 (19) 35% – 40% ->14% variance -> .417% per month
    Draft +3 (20) 32% – 35%
    you can see why they want to move the draft year to (18).

    tkachuk; dec 11 birth
    Vollman’s total NHLE 14G 49P
    Volman’s Even NHLE 9 EG 24 EP
    Desjardins Total NHLE 13G 46P
    Desjardins EVEN NHLE 6.5EG 22.5 EP
    Age NHLE is expected to translate .560 of CHL production @ 21 /22yr
    Total Age NHLE 24G 86P
    Even age NHLE 17 EG 44 EP
    His Assist count is to be questioned cause he played with superior offensive players.

    Dubois June 24
    Vollman’s total NHLE 14G 35 A 34P
    Volman’s Even NHLE 10 EG 12.5 EVA 22.5 EVA
    Desjardins Total NHLE 16.5G 22.5 EVA 39 P
    Desjardins EVEN NHLE 6.5EG 16EA 22.5EP
    Age NHLE is expected to translate .694 of CHL production @ 21 /22yr
    Total Age NHLE 40G 91P
    Even age NHLE 29EG 66 EP

    Usingstraight league performance when one player is around 1/2 a year older in their 2 junior season is in effective.
    The variance of age co-ordinates to a 28% variance on the expected 21/22 yr performance curve.
    .694/.54

    This is why I Use age NHLE.
    It is more reflective of an Elite players future performance that straight league NHLE.

    Plus if a player gets PP time in the league you will see the best PP producering forward at 40% point production from PP. So if you take a junior players AGE NHLE EV production and add 405 that is the best player you can expect to get. though 20-30 % of Even age NHLE seems to be a fairer measure for players who get PP.

  28. Woodguy says:

    WG (heretofore known as fellow)

    DON’T YOU START!

  29. prairieschooner says:

    Not sure how much Nigels Dad (Lloyd) will post or how much interest there is but I will plug away for now.
    Lloyd has arrived at Sheremetov Airport about 28 miles North West of Moscow and is boarding a train to take him down town cost $10.
    Lloyd is one of those guys who will usually run into someone he knows no matter where he goes, it is not so much uncanny but more a fact of life

  30. Tire Fire says:

    Woodguy:
    WG (heretofore known as fellow)

    DON’T YOU START!

    I’m not your fellow, guy!

  31. Rondo says:

    LT,

    I think Vancouver and Oilers probably want the same players.

    If Vancouver does not get PLD they will draft a D-man. Tkachuk is a similar like player to Brock Boehner.

    Now if Oilers like one of the top 3 D more than the others and it is Juolevi . I believe Vancouver will take Juolevi if PLD is gone. They need a C and D. So if Edmonton trades down Juolevi will be gone.

  32. rickithebear says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: His value outside of this organization won’t be huge. He is not a known commodity outside of Edmonton. Any GM making a play for him is doing it because he thinks he can steal him from Edmonton, bottom line

    Bob Mackenzie talked to other teams scouts and they said Davidson would be top 4 D on most playoff teams.

    They Know?
    top 30 HSC D
    top 20 PK D
    Playoff teams in the top 10 GA valuing D that protect the net?

    Defence come on!
    We need offensive d to improve our 2 top 5 Even production forward lines.

    Forgive me for suggesting K. miller who has a career HSCA in the top 20 of current D.
    His .91 EVP/60 was 42nd best in the league.
    #10 Subban 1.24
    #14 Giordano, Parayko 1.13
    #17 Letang 1.11
    #18 Klefbom, Goliogoski, Josi, Klien 1.08
    #29 Hamilton, Hickey, C. Miller 1.01
    #32 Boychuk, OEL, Krug, Petrovic, Pietrangelo .99
    #42 K. Miller, Chara, Demers .91
    #47 Keith, Stralman .89
    #49 Barrie, S. Weber .88
    #66 Faulk, Macdonald .78
    #68 Vatanen, Nemeth, Jones, Connauton, Beauchemin.
    What do scouts know about hockey?

  33. G Money says:

    Woodguy:
    WG (heretofore known as fellow)

    DON’T YOU START!

    ‘Woodfellow’ does have a nice ring to it. Kind of like a refined Woodguy.

  34. G Money says:

    “That time Woodguy met Kevin Lowe: The Woodfellowship of the Six Rings”

  35. Bad Seed says:

    Tire Fire,

    Ha! Good to see a Terrence and Philip fan here.

  36. digger50 says:

    Framed as per this blog orCullens trades, I would take Nuge over Debois. I know it’s tempting to take the pick but if it cost Nuge then it just puts us a step backward.

    Thus I have the #4 pick plus Fayne for Hamonic. Don’t like Fayne, try Pouliott but don’t underestimate Snows need to move Hamonic to limited destinations.

    Then Yak package for Shaw. Does’ work try Vatanen.

    Finally use dollars to sign the missing piece from UFA list, once you I’d what you need. Ie/ Demers

    This fills shopping list items 1,2 and 3. Plus something not on the list that can be forgotten. And that is a finisher for McDavid, that why I’d like to hang on to Eberle for another season.

  37. monsterbater says:

    Tire Fire,

    I’m not your guy, buddy

  38. rickithebear says:

    digger50:
    Framed as per this blog orCullens trades, I would take Nuge over Debois. I know it’s tempting to take the pick but if it cost Nuge then it just puts us a step backward.

    Thus I have the #4 pick plus Fayne for Hamonic. Don’t like Fayne, try Pouliott but don’t underestimate Snows need to move Hamonic to limited destinations.

    Then Yak package for Shaw. Does’ work try Vatanen.

    Finally use dollars to sign the missing piece from UFA list, once you I’d what you need. Ie/ Demers

    This fills shopping list items 1,2 and 3. Plus something not on the list that can be forgotten. And that is a finisher for McDavid, that why I’d like to hang on to Eberle for another season.

    Hamonic is one dimensional D that makes our goalie need prison lube for the number of times he lets the net area get penetrated.

  39. Tire Fire says:

    Bohologo: I’m not a baseball person, but this is a great read about stats guys who get to run a club:
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-what-happened-when-we-tried-to-play-moneyball-without-any-money/

    I just read that and some other quotes from the book.

    It’s really top notch stuff. I think many here will want a copy of this very cheap book. Nice find.

  40. rickithebear says:

    Drake Cagiula:
    Even age NHLE
    13-14 (18) 11Eg 12 EVA 23 EVP
    14-15 (19) 11 EG 9 EA 20 EP
    14-15 (20) 11 EG 10 EA 21 EP
    then brock boeser shoes up with his 25 EG 56 EP age NHLE
    and
    Cagguila racks an age NHLE
    15-16 (21) 19 EG 19 EA 38 EP

    Very interesting!

  41. digger50 says:

    rickithebear,

    Very interesting. And your thoughts on defensive needs? If
    DavidSon is a solid top four does it change needs?

  42. PunjabiOil says:

    NEWS 1130 Sports ‏@NEWS1130Sports 23m23 minutes ago

    For what it’s worth, a teammate of Drake Caggiula’s says he has heard he is signing with the Oilers and not the #Canucks.

  43. John Chambers says:

    dustrock:
    Caramel Batman,

    San Jose stole Burns?In hindsight, yes.

    But they traded Setoguchi, Charlie Coyle, and a 1st for 1 year of Burns.

    Wilson rolled the bones and it turned out real good.

    Meanwhile we’re nickel-and-diming 1 year of Barrie or Shattenkirk.

    The best time to trade for a player is when they have 1 year left on their contract (eg Talbot).

    If re-signing the player is a priority then once they’re on your roster they only cost money and typically players (and their agents) are highly open to signing contract extensions as early as possible to hedge against injury- or performance risk.

  44. dustrock says:

    For Caligula, are we talking someone like Gallagher? Maybe it’s too easy a comparison, just trying to think of a short, gritty and pretty skilled player.

  45. Tire Fire says:

    dustrock:
    For Caligula, are we talking someone like Gallagher?

    Excellent nickname. Hopefully he annexes some kingdoms for us.

  46. Ducey says:

    dustrock:
    For Caligula, are we talking someone like Gallagher?Maybe it’s too easy a comparison, just trying to think of a short, gritty and pretty skilled player.

    This MSM guy says Marchand or Andrew Shaw.

    http://vancouversun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/kuzma-canucks-covet-college-free-agent-caggiula

  47. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    rickithebear: Bob Mackenzie talked to other teams scouts and they said Davidson would be top 4 D on most playoff teams.

    They Know?
    top 30 HSC D
    top 20 PK D
    Playoff teams in the top 10 GA valuing D that protect the net?

    Defence come on!
    We need offensive d to improve our 2 top 5 Even production forward lines.

    Forgive me for suggesting K. miller who has a career HSCA in the top 20 of current D.
    His .91 EVP/60 was 42nd best in the league.
    #10 Subban 1.24
    #14 Giordano, Parayko1.13
    #17 Letang 1.11
    #18 Klefbom, Goliogoski, Josi, Klien 1.08
    #29 Hamilton, Hickey, C. Miller1.01
    #32 Boychuk, OEL, Krug, Petrovic, Pietrangelo .99
    #42 K. Miller, Chara, Demers .91
    #47 Keith, Stralman .89
    #49 Barrie, S. Weber .88
    #66 Faulk, Macdonald .78
    #68 Vatanen, Nemeth, Jones, Connauton, Beauchemin.
    What do scouts know about hockey?

    Thanks Ricki. I’m not entirely sure what you are saying here as it pertains to my commentary on Davidson.

    For the record, if you are trying to suggest he’s a good player, then say no more because I agree.

    I believe there is a chance that other teams/scouts will see what many of us see. That said, I also don’t think that’s how the market works in this case.

    If other teams identify Davidson (for the reasons I think you’ve pointed out) then they will do so as a value target. Not as a target that you pay full price for. They will not trade, as was suggested earlier, a quality young right handed D for him. No chance.

    Any GM that makes an offer on Davidson will do so because they are a shark that smells blood in the water. They will probably do so in such a manner as to suggest that he isn’t their primary acquisition of interest.

    I say again, we don’t win a Davidson trade.

  48. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    We should guarantee this Caligula an NHL spot and cherry ice time. The GM should start having press conferences devoted to talking about his Hart Trophy potential.

    I mean, he was really good in college.

    What could possibly go wrong?

  49. HiddenDarts says:

    If we could state some real facts for a second:

    Hamonic has REQUESTED a trade, rather publicly.

    Chiarelli is a smart, tested GM with no track record of overpaying in trades (er, Reinhart excepted)

    I’ve been watching this team death spiral for 10 years and the one common note that never went away is “Wow is our center depth ever complete garbage”.

    With those ideas in mind, why are we giving up a former #1 overall pick Center in any trade, much less one for a number 2/3 D-man that, again, has REQUESTED A TRADE? This center is also a guy who 2 years ago was our best player, and just happened to have a tough last year.

    It just doesn’t make sense. If Chia is Chia (which I think he is), he either offers Eberle with a million retained or the pick, with the latter requiring another player, likely Strome. There will be no crappy contracts coming to Edmonton.

    Frankly, even Eberle might be an overpay. Let’s not forget that Snow is up a certain kind of creek, and there aren’t a lot of paddles kicking around.

  50. LadiesloveSmid says:

    speeds,

    Man, I’d love for Caggiula AND Stecher to sign in Vancouver. WHY!

  51. John Chambers says:

    HiddenDarts,

    Yep. No reason we should lose a trade for Hamonic.

  52. JimmyV1965 says:

    digger50:
    Framed as per this blog orCullens trades, I would take Nuge over Debois. I know it’s tempting to take the pick but if it cost Nuge then it just puts us a step backward.

    Thus I have the #4 pick plus Fayne for Hamonic. Don’t like Fayne, try Pouliott but don’t underestimate Snows need to move Hamonic to limited destinations.

    Then Yak package for Shaw. Does’ work try Vatanen.

    Finally use dollars to sign the missing piece from UFA list, once you I’d what you need. Ie/ Demers

    This fills shopping list items 1,2 and 3. Plus something not on the list that can be forgotten. And that is a finisher for McDavid, that why I’d like to hang on to Eberle for another season.

    I just don’t see Snow being interested in a draft pick. He’s in win-now mode.

  53. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Agreed. He trended up all season, and doesn’t have the counting numbers or draft pedigree to fetch something big. I’d love to see where he tops out, was my favourite player to watch before Buff snapped his leg.

  54. Truth says:

    HiddenDarts,

    Exactly. Snow is tasked with trading him to one of Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary, or Vancouver. Winnipeg has already tied up too much money on D that getting Trouba done is a major concern. Calgary is very well set up with young D and have to pay little johnny and others soon. Vancouver is a tire fire, and probably the most likely to fall for Snow’s crazy asking price for Hamonic. But if it is known that the trade partners are practically just the two teams, why offer market value? Snow has to do something this summer or else he gets a bad rep with players and agents.

  55. Ducey says:

    Truth:
    HiddenDarts,

    Exactly.Snow is tasked with trading him to one of Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary, or Vancouver.Winnipeg has already tied up too much money on D that getting Trouba done is a major concern.Calgary is very well set up with young D and have to pay little johnny and others soon. Vancouver is a tire fire, and probably the most likely to fall for Snow’s crazy asking price for Hamonic.But if it is known that the trade partners are practically just the two teams, why offer market value?Snow has to do something this summer or else he gets a bad rep with players and agents.

    To be fair I think he is open to going to COL and MIN, too.

  56. JimmyV1965 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: Thanks Ricki.I’m not entirely sure what you are saying here as it pertains to my commentary on Davidson.

    For the record, if you are trying to suggest he’s a good player, then say no more because I agree.

    I believe there is a chance that other teams/scouts will see what many of us see.That said, I also don’t think that’s how the market works in this case.

    If other teams identify Davidson (for the reasons I think you’ve pointed out) then they will do so as a value target.Not as a target that you pay full price for.They will not trade, as was suggested earlier, a quality young right handed D for him.No chance.

    Any GM that makes an offer on Davidson will do so because they are a shark that smells blood in the water.They will probably do so in such a manner as to suggest that he isn’t their primary acquisition of interest.

    I say again, we don’t win a Davidson trade.

    Agreed. He almost has to be untouchable, in the sense that his value in the market is far lower than his actual value.

  57. hags9k says:

    HiddenDarts,

    Truth,

    I agree, this should be a deal where we are all surprised at the LOW cost of acquisition. Market value? No way Garth!

  58. G Money says:

    rickithebear,

    Yesterday, you called others idiots for paying attention to the offensive side of the equation on defensemen, and for not understanding that goal differential is what matters.

    You then went on a tirade where you completely ignored goal differential and focused entirely on the defensive side of the equation for defensemen.

    And that’s not even accounting for the fact that the way that you use your chosen defensive statistic (WOI HSCA) indicates that you don’t actually understand what it is or how it is calculated.

    You’d think that at least grasping what the singular object in your toolkit is and does (and its significant shortcomings) would be a minimum requirement before you could so confidently and stridently declare yourself to be a mad genius and all others idiots.

    Never has your almost obsessive insistence on focusing on a single statistic as the end all and be all of evaluating defensemen seemed sillier or more misguided.

    I believe we may have reached Peak Bear.

    True story: according to Mr. Bear’s chosen end-all be-all statistic, the two best defensemen so far in the playoffs have been Mike Weber and Taylor Chorney. And Raphael Diaz was the Rangers’ best defenseman, while Ryan McDonagh was the worst.

    There’s an obvious lesson there Ricki. Are you going to recognize it and accept it, or double down?

  59. LoDog says:

    rickithebear: Hamonic is one dimensional D that makes our goalie need prison lube for the number of times he lets the net area get penetrated.

    I love you Ricki.

    As for Hamonic, my gawd.

    Eberle+?
    4th overall+?

    Not even close to worth the 4th overall. Little Nuge would probably be the 5th player taken in this draft.

  60. G Money says:

    As others have pointed out, it’s important to understand that Travis Hamonic should be available at a discount, not only because he’s asked for a trade, but a trade to a small subset of teams.

    And he’s done it for admirable and understandable reasons (which means denying the request would be both likely harmful to the player’s focus on the game and standard of play, and also make the GM look like an utter shithead).

    It’s also important to understand that a player of Hamonic’s calibre, at his age, and with that stellar contract, would almost never be available without a trade request.

    For that reason, Chia, who desperately needs quality RHD more than any other GM in the league arguably, needs to be all over this trade opportunity, without letting up. (And by the sounds of it, he has been exactly that)

  61. Pajamah says:

    G Money:
    rickithebear,

    Yesterday, you called others idiots for paying attention to the offensive side of the equation on defensemen, and for not understanding that goal differential is what matters.

    You then went on a tirade where you completely ignored goal differential and focused entirely on the defensive side of the equation for defensemen.

    And that’s not even accounting for the fact that the way that you use your chosen defensive statistic (WOI HSCA) indicates that you don’t actually understand what it is or how it is calculated.

    You’d think that at least grasping what the singular object in your toolkit is and does (and its significant shortcomings) would be a minimum requirement before you could so confidently and stridently declare yourself to be a mad genius and all others idiots.

    Never has your almost obsessive insistence on focusing on a single statistic as the end all and be all of evaluating defensemen seemed sillier or more misguided.

    I believe we may have reached Peak Bear.

    True story: according to Mr. Bear’s chosen end-all be-all statistic, the two best defensemen so far in the playoffs have been Mike Weber and Taylor Chorney.And Raphael Diaz was the Rangers’ best defenseman, while Ryan McDonagh was the worst.

    There’s an obvious lesson there Ricki.Are you going to recognize it and accept it, or double down?

    Retweet.

  62. rickithebear says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: Thanks Ricki.I’m not entirely sure what you are saying here as it pertains to my commentary on Davidson.

    Offence is generated 2 ways by D.
    at even
    and
    in an advantage situation PP.

    Large PP points from a D do not guarantee PP success.
    we know the median value for PP GF is 6.13
    we know that the median PPP/60 is 3.62
    we know that the median for EVP/60 is .71
    we know D generate 5 times more points on the PP.
    yet when you look at a teams GF success it may not even be above league average.

    Sekera was atop 430 PPP/60 d at 4.44 playing 2.33 in his 81gm
    that is 3.15 60 minute segments. allowing him to generat 14 PPP
    Sekera had a top 25 PPGF rate at 7.51/60 1.38GF/60 better than the median.
    Sekera generated 4.3G better than league median from his 14 PP pts.
    minimal affect for a season.

    I am not paying big cap dollars for a large collection of points on PP.

    last year Subban played 3.52 per game on PP. he generated 24 PP Points which was covered by his hansomly priced Salary of 9M.

    The number of goals above the median he generated that year. 1G
    1goal!

    Sekera is our PP QB.THE media people in LAk sasid the would have loved him to BE a 2nd comp Even anchor on the LAK D. As well as be the 2nd Unit pp D.
    the top 3 PPTOI D averaged 4.71
    the next 4 best averaged 3.76
    our Top 30PPP and PPGF D got 2.28

    *******WE DO NOT NEED TO CHASE PP QB. give his 5.5M 4.50 PPTOI

    ********we need 2 strong even Off D in the top 4.
    Klefbom is a top 30
    with the 5th best EVP/60 1.08
    since
    Whitney10-11 1.52
    Grebeshkov 08-09 1.31
    Souray 08-09 1.21
    Gilbert 08-09 1.19

    K. miller playing with
    1st/2nd line
    15-16 1.09
    14-15 1.09
    13-14 .81
    3rd/4th line
    15-16 .62
    14-15 .51
    13.14 .43

    I was trying to show that Klefbom and K. miller gives you strong top 4 EVP/60 rates.
    compared to all the so called Elite offensive D
    that are being listed here.

    ********that we can have the elite Offensive D while not having to chase utter shite Def D that wil cost us big $

    Klefbom1st comp (1.08 EVP/60) (10.12 HSCA) (4.167M)
    Fayne 1st comp (3.625M)
    Davidson 2nd comp (9.68 HSCA) (1.425M) –
    K. Miller 2nd comp (1.09 1st/2nd team) (top 20 career HSCA 9.09) (800K 15-16 ????)
    Sekera (4.44 PPP) (top 5 7.80 HSCA 2nd comp) (5.5M)

    *******if we can get a real 1st comp D with Strong HSCA.
    then you move Fayne.!

  63. Loyal2theoil says:

    For what it's worth, a teammate of Drake Caggiula's says he has heard he is signing with the Oilers and not the #Canucks.— NEWS 1130 Sports (@NEWS1130Sports) May 6, 2016

  64. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    rickithebear,

    Cool.

    It’s just that you come across as angry at me for saying that Davidson is good and that we shouldn’t trade him…. and I’m still not seeing how your point has anything to do with that. That’s probably why I’m confused.

    I agree that Klefbom is also under valued.

  65. Магия 10 says:

    rickithebear: I am not paying big cap dollars for a large collection of points on PP.

    On the ice it a goal made is equal to a goal denied. But Moneyball is all about not overpaying for equal things. As long as other teams over pay for D PP points (proving that is a separate discussion) then yeah the tilt on evens is where to buy. And if teams overpay D for goals made (another separate discussion) then buying goals avoided profits teams and the Bear.

  66. commonfan14 says:

    PunjabiOil: For what it’s worth, a teammate of Drake Caggiula’s says he has heard he is signing with the Oilers and not the #Canucks.

    I love the Drake.

    How could you not like the Drake?

    I just hope Commander Shelby doesn’t ruin things at the last minute.

  67. G Money says:

    rickithebear: last year Subban played 3.52 per game on PP. he generated 24 PP Points which was covered by his hansomly priced Salary of 9M.
    The number of goals above the median he generated that year. 1G
    1goal!

    This is perhaps an outstanding example of why using bad statistics (or is it using statistics badly) is potentially worse than using no statistics at all.

    This completely ignores the context of the impact of the team on the player, and the player on the team.

    Here’s what I would use to demonstrate the value of PK Subban to the Montreal power play:

    Up to the Subban neck injury on March 10th:
    MTL generated 20.7 high danger chances, 51.1 shots, and 6.1 goals per 60 minutes on the power play

    After the Subban injury:
    MTL generated 12.3 high danger chances, 35.9 shots, and 3.4 goals per 60 minutes on the power play

    In other words, once PK Subban was no longer quarterbacking the Montreal power play, its effectiveness fell by almost half.

    “One goal above median” be damned. That teams power play depends on PK Subban so much, and he is so fucking good, that it is a near-top-10 PP when he’ s in the lineup, and literally it is the worst power play in the league when he is out of the lineup.

    What’s that worth to ya?

  68. blainer says:

    G Money: This is perhaps an outstanding example of why using bad statistics (or is it using statistics badly) is potentially worse than using no statistics at all.

    This completely ignores the context of the impact of the team on the player, and the player on the team.

    Here’s what I would use to demonstrate the value of PK Subban to the Montreal power play:

    Up to the Subban neck injury on March 10th:
    MTL generated 20.7 high danger chances, 51.1 shots, and 6.1 goals per 60 minutes on the power play

    After the Subban injury:
    MTL generated 12.3 high danger chances, 35.9 shots, and 3.4 goals per 60 minutes on the power play

    In other words, once PK Subban was no longer quarterbacking the Montreal power play, its effectivness fell by almost half.

    “One goal above median” be damned.That teams power play depends on PK Subban so much, and he is so fucking good, that it is a near-top-10 PP when he’ s in the lineup, and literally it is the worst power play in the league when he is out of the lineup.

    What’s that worth to ya?

    Hey G.. While ricki values Defensive D and his Box area I like to have both defensive D and offense which makes a team more rounded. Maybe with one of each an every pairing. Hoping Davey can do both.

    Klef Hamonic

    Sekera Vatenan

    Davidson Fayne

    Nurse and Reinhart starting in the A.

    I am curious especially with all the research you’ve done on hamonic.

    Knowing the position that Snow is in what is the most you would offer for hamonic ?

  69. rickithebear says:

    G Money:
    rickithebear,

    Yesterday, you called others idiots for paying attention to the offensive side of the equation on defensemen, and for not understanding that goal differential is what matters.

    There are awhole collection of points there that address a differing level of views.

    My attack….
    was a LMAO sarcastic attempt showing how This groups 2 year attack on my single Stat that identifies HSCA as an element of the game.
    Yet you do the same for Ofensive D.
    Hypocritical to the Max.
    there are singular values that currently identify a Dmans 5 traits.
    will we creat better measures sure.

    HSCA/60
    it is the measure of Corsi
    that are not blocked;
    that do not miss
    that are in an arbitrarily defined X,y grouping of Scoring chances.
    there is no universal accepted standard hor this HSCA zone.

    Though any one worth the slightest bit of salt. knows that it should be a grouping of shot zones by shooting success in one goal incruments on either side of the HSCA zone peak result point.

    You have to pick a side. I choose GA cause strong GA are cheaper than strong GF D.
    A good GA requires cheaper forwards to break even/outscore.
    Making the outscoring point of a GA D group hugely cheaper than the cap hit required for the break even/outscoring point of offensive D and top end offensive forwards.
    simple as that!

  70. Магия 10 says:

    no shortage of fake accounts out there:

    Brian Lawton ‏@bryanlawton9 7m7 minutes ago
    Hearing that the #Canucks are about to sign Drake #Caggiula #CaggiulaWatch

  71. Ducey says:

    G Money: This is perhaps an outstanding example of why using bad statistics (or is it using statistics badly) is potentially worse than using no statistics at all.

    This completely ignores the context of the impact of the team on the player, and the player on the team.

    Here’s what I would use to demonstrate the value of PK Subban to the Montreal power play:

    Up to the Subban neck injury on March 10th:
    MTL generated 20.7 high danger chances, 51.1 shots, and 6.1 goals per 60 minutes on the power play

    After the Subban injury:
    MTL generated 12.3 high danger chances, 35.9 shots, and 3.4 goals per 60 minutes on the power play

    In other words, once PK Subban was no longer quarterbacking the Montreal power play, its effectivness fell by almost half.

    “One goal above median” be damned.That teams power play depends on PK Subban so much, and he is so fucking good, that it is a near-top-10 PP when he’ s in the lineup, and literally it is the worst power play in the league when he is out of the lineup.

    What’s that worth to ya?

    I am not going to get between you and Ricki on stats. I think they are all flawed to some degree.

    But you may want to take your own advice and take into account other players on the team.

    Your “After” for PK includes only 14 games (in garbage time) and doesn’t account for the fact that not only PK was hurt but Petry and Gilbert were also out of the lineup to finish the season. Gallagher also missed a month in there.

  72. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    “That time Woodguy met Kevin Lowe: The Woodfellowship of the Six Rings”

    Ima gonna steal that

  73. blainer says:

    rickithebear: There are awhole collection of points there that address a differing level of views.

    My attack….
    was a LMAO sarcasticattempt showing how This groups 2 year attack on my single Stat that identifies HSCA as an element of the game.
    Yet you do the same for Ofensive D.
    Hypocritical to the Max.
    there are singular values that currently identify a Dmans 5 traits.
    will we creat better measures sure.

    HSCA/60
    it is the measure of Corsi
    that are not blocked;
    that do not miss
    that are in an arbitrarily defined X,y grouping of Scoring chances.
    there is no universal accepted standard hor this HSCA zone.

    Though any one worth the slightest bit of salt. knows that it should be a grouping of shot zones by shooting success in one goal incruments on either side of the HSCA zone peak result point.

    You have to pick a side. I choose GA cause strong GA are cheaper than strong GF D.
    A good GA requires cheaper forwards to break even/outscore.
    Making the outscoring point of a GA D group hugely cheaper than the cap hit required for the break even/outscoring point of offensive D and top end offensive forwards.
    simple as that!

    Ricki … are you secretly working for the New jersey Devils ? How would you feel if we swaped out our D for their’s..

  74. G Money says:

    blainer,

    Tough question Blainer!

    I’m happy to dig into the details of players and teams to try and come up with good assessments of what I think they’re at. But I tend to shy away from trade proposals and the like.

    Not because I can’t (in my time, I’ve been the prime negotiator in multiple multi-million dollar corporate acquisitions) but because – like every negotiation – the outcomes are more dependent on the needs of the parties, the ability of the parties to assess their own and the other sides negotiating positions (what they call “BATNA”, or Best Alternative To Negotiated Agreement i.e. like Kenny Rogers said, you gotta know when to hold ’em and know when to fold ’em) and the skill of the negotiatiors.

    Those influence the result much moreso than the actual value of the parts involved.

    In that sense, NYI and EDM are perfect negotiating partners, because the Oilers need RHD (and so should be willing to overpay relative to market), while the NYI need a Western team to send Hamonic to (so are backed into what would likely otherwise be an undersell relative to the market). So in theory we ought to be able to come to a ‘fair’ deal?

    What’s a fair deal?

    In my books, I would be OK with sending the 4OV pick to them. I’d also be willing to send Eberle instead (remembering that it’s Eberle /$6M cap vs Hamonic/$4M cap, so $2M of cap comes back our way).

    We need an RHD, they likely need a scoring winger for Tavares.

    Win-win?

    If they push for more than that, I’d say that’s where you draw the line – knowing full well that the usual BATNA available to NYI (keeping the player) isn’t really available, so it’s a matter of what other teams in the mix (CGY, WPG, VAN, COL, MIN likely) are willing to trade.

  75. commonfan14 says:

    Магия 10: no shortage of fake accounts out there:
    Brian Lawton ‏@bryanlawton9 7m7 minutes ago
    Hearing that the #Canucks are about to sign Drake #Caggiula #CaggiulaWatch

    Hate the Drake!

  76. rickithebear says:

    blainer: Hey G.. While ricki values Defensive D and his Box area I like to have both defensive D and offense which makes a team more rounded. Maybe with one of each an every pairing. Hoping Davey can do both.

    This is my belief.
    and
    all Def D to start cause they are cap cheap.
    and
    real cap Cheap forwards can outscore against the best at even.
    while expensive OFF D with very bad D cannot outscore .

    you can improve the other traits of the D on offensive side moving forward.

  77. G Money says:

    Ducey,

    That’s a very fair point, and good work keeping me honest.

    I do not believe the Petry and Gilbert injuries had an impact on the Montreal PP (I say that statistically, not as a matter of opinion).

    The Gallagher injury was significant, and should be noted, for sure.

    The more correct statement would be to say that the loss of Subban and Gallagher was enough to take a powerplay from near-top-10 to worst in the league. (Perhaps the Petry injury impacted that by way of hurting depth. I don’t think Gilbert was a positively impactful player for the Habs this year)

    It will take a more in-depth analysis to try and suss out which was more impactful and to what extent (an exercise best left to fans of the Habs, unless Subban to EDM rumours get some legs).

  78. blainer says:

    G Money:
    blainer,

    Tough question Blainer!

    I’m happy to dig into the details of players and teams to try and come up with good assessments of what I think they’re at. But I tend to shy away from trade proposals and the like.

    Not because I can’t (in my time, I’ve been the prime negotiator in multiple multi-million dollar corporate acquisitions) but because – like every negotiation – the outcomes are more dependent on the needs of the parties, the ability of the parties to assess their own and the other sides negotiating positions (what they call “BATNA”, or Best Alternative To Negotiated Agreement i.e. like Kenny Rogers said, you gotta know when to hold ’em and know when to fold ’em) and the skill of the negotiatiors.

    Those influence the result much moreso than the actual value of the parts involved.

    In that sense, NYI and EDM are perfect negotiating partners, because the Oilers need RHD (and so should be willing to overpay relative to market), while the NYI need a Western team to send Hamonic to (so are backed into what would likely otherwise be an undersell relative to the market).So in theory we ought to be able to come to a ‘fair’ deal?

    What’s a fair deal?

    In my books, I would be OK with sending the 4OV pick to them.I’d also be willing to send Eberle instead (remembering that it’s Eberle /$6M cap vs Hamonic/$4M cap, so $2M of cap comes back our way).

    We need an RHD, they likely need a scoring winger for Tavares.

    Win-win?

    If they push for more than that, I’d say that’s where you draw the line – knowing full well that the usual BATNA available to NYI (keeping the player) isn’t really available, so it’s a matter of what other teams in the mix (CGY, WPG, VAN, COL, MIN likely) are willing to trade.

    Like you G I have also done my fair share of negotiating for my business albeit on a smaller scale. I do agree with your take on the value of Hamonic.

    I do hope that if we are trading Ebs that we have a replacement ready to plug in his spot as that is a lot of goals we lose.

    I think if chia is trading a $6 million contract he will have a UFA ready to sign or be signed. That is my hope anyway.

  79. G Money says:

    rickithebear: This is my belief.
    and
    all Def D to start cause they are cap cheap.

    It might be what you believe, but it’s not what you argue.

    Blainer has it exactly right – if you built what you argue, you would build NJD. (whose middling results, it should be understood, are only middling because they playing in the East and get consistent Vezina level goaltending)

  80. rickithebear says:

    As for Understanding:
    I have been on here since 05-06.

    The discussion over Shawn horcoff pushed me to look at Gaol diff as a whole to value players.
    this board is very conservative by nature.

    Present an idea it is wrong. I have allways h pushed river versus the group view.
    Every time they have come to see the view. usually in a 2-3 year cycle.

    So I Have allways looked at goal differential.

    Dating back years when I was establishing the GF and GA standards for every Forward and D.

    GF for a LW, C, RW, D
    facing upper, mid, lower 1st; 2nd; 3rd; 4th comp
    with
    upper, mid, lower, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th teammates
    in a
    % grade of ZS.

    You could come up with a generic GF and GA rate for forwards in any situation.
    people were arguing the merits of Comp; Team; ZS. wondering if they had any value.
    How dare I take situational values as groups. Vollman comes along with his little bubble on a graph and suddenly those who did not understand had there little picture to sort of get it. though the bubble was of corsi.
    using it to measure the defencemans value.
    just utterly wrong.
    Which I argued.

    corsi – (d affect>blocks+misses + closed hole shots) = open hole shots.
    some on here still do not grasp that one.

    so I stopped cause this was way over everyones head.
    Baby steps.

    Discussion of shot rates of pocessed entry into zone carry versus dump.
    That lead to others doing the work on it only after they argued against it.
    Until the light clicked. Right MR. Dellow!

    Or

    the discussion of PDO, 2 arbitray numbers we should look at individually.
    Shooting % and save %.
    Cause I knew that those numbers were dependent on Shot penetrsation and shot success by distance.

    or

    The repetitive arguments over shot quality.
    Many arguing there being no such thing as a quality of shot.
    this whole board was passionate on that position.
    Mean while, me looking at Langes pre existing paper on shot quality that matched my x,y data.
    and
    the pain I felt for lange ‘s position. trying to make it a team measure.
    the failure on his part not to recognize the elevation of curve near the net.

    or

    The arguing of defensive affect. My position tthat it existed knowing that relative to pucks directed at the net. They could be influenced by Block, forced misses, Distance from the net. and Net elevation targeting (open closed hole shots). Once again a fight. others presented a study that said the affect was +/- 1.23 % which is nothing relative to 1.000 save %.
    there was a big problem. the measure of save 5 is to the 1000th. but it is not a whole range.
    the range of starting goalies is largely .900 to .936 +/- 1.80 on either side of the mean save%.
    1.23/1.80 a 68.3% affect by D.
    An improper conclusion that people wanted versus the truth.

    or

    the concept of D affect relative to Low; Med; High chance shots based on x,y co-ordinates
    Me bringing up guys like Fistric who yielded low GA counts. and high Distance from net counts.All the while People looking at offence as the critical value in cap world. many not understanding that 3rdpair goalsagainst was just as important as 1st comp.
    Christ some still cannot grasp that one. Some finally starting to turn to that one. with Some kind of ninja’s shot chart and breaking downshot success by range.
    Ut was at this point some understood that Ga was not the Measure but a more complex look .

    or

    The discussion of Goalies save % varying by shots distance and wanting to present the discussed low; med ; high chance shots broken down into open and closed hole.
    Cause the puck is directed to the net and the only ones that are a true measure of a goalie are open hole shots.

    Most of you have not taken this one yet.
    but the years of arguing were suddenly reduced by War on ice graphing and tabularization of Low; med; High chane shots. and HSAC.

    we got into a discussuion of what the HSCA area was.and the accepted ranges. then when I stated I used another individuals definition of Distance and langes chart.
    War on ice’s HSCA numbers had a shift towards that groups definition.
    I no longer controlled the definition of area.
    What is finally becoming clear to everyone is the idea of D affect.

    Entry into the zone is as much about system and forward back check as the D.
    we know 85% of goals come from the half of shots that are Med/high chance shots.

    The math of
    Corsi – (Blocks – Misses) = shots -> does not come up with a d affect reflective of 68.3%

    but introduce shots with zero chance of going in;

    Corsi – (blocks + misses + low close shots + med closed shots + high closed shots) = open hole shots.

    you get D affect that is reflective of around 70%

    D affect + (blocks + misses + (Targeting shot affect))
    targeting shot affect = (low close shots + med close shots + high close shots)

    and

    most critical Goalie affect:

    (Low open goals/low open shots)
    (med open goals/Med open shots)
    (high open goals/ High open shots)

    though Goalie coaches teach sound table hockey goalie positioning to block as mucjh of the net as possible.
    it is at this point the distance required to open hole save has not yet been defined.

    The further data is from the value you are studying the less chance of being correct.

    procession – ( failed entries – loss of pocesion in zone) = corsi
    corsi – (blocks + misses + (Targeting shot affect) = open hole shots faced.

    Open hole shots faced:
    Goals = ((low open hole shots * goalie low shot save %) + (med open hole shots * goalie low shot save %) + (low open hole shots * goalie low shot save %))

    We can meaure a d affect from Corsi to Open hole shots by location.

    then the goalies ability against each type of shot dictates Goals against.

    the loss of Pocession and entry to Corsi dictates the volume of corsi faced. which greatkly dictates goal cont as well.
    but that is a latter discussion.

  81. rickithebear says:

    G Money: It might be what you believe, but it’s not what you argue.

    Blainer has it exactly right – if you built what you argue, you would build NJD.(whose middling results, it should be understood, are only middling because they playing in the East and get consistent Vezina level goaltending)

    They are the 8th best GA team in the game 208 GA
    and
    have the third best qualified HSCA save % goalie in the game.
    4th if you take unqualified minutes (griess)
    They are also deep in HSCA D.

    They are also last in GF 184 G

  82. bendelson says:

    “The sun is shining down, and (ricki) the bear is rolling in the shade”

  83. Richard S.S. says:

    Where did all the grumpy people come from, the season hasn’t started yet. This should be a fun time with speculation running wild.

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