GRIFFIN VERSUS THE VOLCANO

by Lowetide

The last time Edmonton made a trade involving a first-round selection, Mathew Barzal was heading to the Islanders. It looks like trading down (or out) may be the call again this summer, based on what we are hearing. I think we can guess a lot of what is going on in Peter Chiarelli’s office these days based on what he said yesterday.

  • Chiarelli on trading out at No. 4: “Yeah. I look at us like we’re in the top of the next group. I’ve had four or five teams call me already, and I’ve made it know that we’ll look to trade down if the right deal is there in the context of just a pure trade-down, or a trade down with kind of giving up the value on the draft numbers, the draft rankings, in getting a draft pick and an NHL player. We went through a lot of scenarios at the amateur meetings. That’s when you’re most creative. Now, executing these things is often hard, but there’s some real stuff that could come across our desk in the next few weeks. So looking at a lot of stuff. But again, 4 to 9 – pretty good players.” Source (Original interview with Bob Stauffer)

Let’s start by listing the Bob McKenzie No. 4 to No. 9:

  • No. 4: L Matthew Tkachuk, London Knights (OHL)
  • No. 5: L Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cape Breton Screaming Eagles (QMJHL)
  • No. 6: R Alex Nylander, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL)
  • No. 7: LD Olli Juolevi, London Knights (OHL)
  • No. 8: LD Mikhail Sergachev, Windsor Spitfires (OHL)
  • No. 9: LD Jacob Chychrun, Sarnia Sting (OHL)

I have suggested that the Oilers would not have a high degree of interest in Nylander (your mileage may vary), but the others listed here are basically in Edmonton’s wheelhouse. I believe both forwards will be wingers, and all three defenders are LDs so PC will need to fix the handedness by other means.

POSSIBLE TRADE OPTIONS BASED ON DRAFT NUMBER

  • No. 5 Vancouver Canucks. I doubt there is much point in dealing up for one player, and their GM has already named Tkachuk and Dubois as his options. I think we should consider the Canucks at this spot a lock.
  • No. 6 Calgary Flames. It isn’t as crazy as you think, but the Flames have a player who could offer Edmonton some shelter (Dougie Hamilton) but Calgary is (I assume) looking for a goalie and fairly satisfied with their young blue.
  • No. 7 Arizona Coyotes. Chiarelli mentioned dealing down for picks, Phoenix has this pick and No. 22 overall. Would you deal Dubois or Tkachuk for Juolevi and Nathan Bastian? The value probably works, we have no way to know what the boy King is thinking in the desert.
  • No. 8 overall Buffalo Sabres. Edmonton could grab this pick and No. 38, and maybe Tim Murray likes someone enough to make the move. Mark Pysyk is also interesting but one wonders if that would close the gap for Peter Chiarelli.
  • No. 9 overall Montreal Canadiens. The final spot for the Oilers, my guess is that (if Nylander is not on their top 9 list) it is giant center Logan Brown. Would Montreal give up No. 9 and No. 39?
  • No. 14 Boston Bruins. Boston has selections at No. 14, No. 20, No. 51 and they also have that silly Chiarelli pick. Perhaps the Oilers and Bruins can make a deal, although trading down to No. 14 means taking (possibly) RD Charlie McAvoy and (at No. 20) Alex DeBrincat.

I think the Oilers got rather unlucky with trade options when the lottery balls stopped moving. If Edmonton was slotted No. 3 and Columbus No. 5 (as an example), that would give the team some leverage. Now? Not an option, although I think David Savard might still be a target.

MCDAVID’S WINGMAN

  • Peter Chiarelli on Tkachuk: “I’ve seen Tkachuk play maybe 10 or 11 times. He’s just a cerebral player and a gritty heavy player. He’s so smart and he’s always around the net. He would be a really good fit.” Source
  • Peter Chiarelli on Dubois: “Pierre same thing, big and strong. He’s your prototypical power forward that can play centre and wing. He can really shoot the puck.” Source

In listening to Peter (and Bob) I think Chiarelli likes Tkachuk a lot—but does he like him enough to draft him at No. 4 overall? If he does, Tkachuk could be that impact winger who will play a decade or more with Connor McDavid. It has to be tempting on some level.

russell

IF YOU LOVE ME, YOU LOVE ME WITH MONEY

https://twitter.com/generalfanager/status/729102592559726592

https://twitter.com/generalfanager/status/729824354557558784

The numbers are not that far apart, to be honest. Caggiula got most of the Anton Slepyshev deal (AS has $600,000 in bonus opportunities to the $425,000 listed for Caggiula). Russell’s deal is the Dillon Simpson contract. If we wanted to put it simply, Caggiula got third-round money, Russell fourth-round dollars. Not bad, not bad, hope they do well.

GRIFFIN VERSUS THE VOLCANO

I read an item by Kris Hansen right at the end of the season, he took at look at GR after year one of the trade. Every once in awhile this trade will come up, I will express my views, and the comments proceed to beat me about the head because of it. No matter that I don’t aggressively post these views, don’t mock the player, don’t in any way attempt to sway other views. In this way, Griffin Reinhart has taken the lightning rod honors among current Oilers. One imagines his reign will be longer than Rob Schremp’s and shorter than Shawn Horcoff’s but the future is not known to us.

  • Hansen: The price was a dear one to pay for a defenceman who is not fully developed. I know I am not alone in wanting an established defenceman for a first round draft pick. What’s done is done. Reinhart will be linked (unfairly I think) to Mathew Barzal. There’s still lots of time for Reinhart: he is only 22 but there are concerns especially when compared to his other draft class members such as Hampus Lindholm, Morgan Rielly, Jacob Trouba, Mathew Dumba and Olli Maata who have all been NHL regulars at some point now. Source

Kris puts things in perspective nicely, and it is difficult to argue that Reinhart—even if we exclude his bonus money for next season—is an obvious choice for the NHL roster for 2016-17. It’s also true that his trade value is such that using him as a key portion of any trade is impossible. What can Peter Chiarelli do with his very expensive bauble? I think the answer is this: The same as last year. Reinhart spent 30 games in the AHL, 29 in the NHL and burned off a bunch of his cap bonus money.

In that article, Kris quotes our own WheatnOil in regard to something positive about GR:

  • WheatnOil: Fayne and Reinhart have not been in Sekera territory in the small sample of games I’ve measured, but they do show their strength in preventing zone entries. When combined with the Zone Exit data, Reinhart looks like a fairly balanced defenceman… preventing zone entries at Fayne levels but with the ability to move the puck. Source

We are probably looking at a third-pairing lefty here, beginning in 2017-18. He will cost about $1.2 million and all of Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse and Brandon Davidson look like they can bat higher in the lineup—and that has to be a tough pill for PC to swallow.

WAR ON ICE D SLEDGE

That said, he is durable, can play defense, and the item from WeatnOil dovetails with what we saw out of him in junior. If he is a trade piece, suspect it will be at another time, as his value cannot be high after what was a developmental season. As an aside, I generally felt Nurse and Reinhart were about the same on the defensive spectrum this season—but the graph suggests Nurse faced tougher opposition and more severe zone starts in the sorties that began from a full stop.

Reinhart has value, but probably more value for Edmonton than he would in trade. For me, that means another lefty (among Sekera, Klefbom, Davidson and Nurse) could be in play—depending on injury situations for Klefbom and Davidson.

NHL COMBINE LIST

Once the NHL releases their list of combine invites, we have a general idea about where their member teams are fishing. As an example, here is the Oilers draft list since 2010 funneled through the combine for each year:

2008 Oilers draft

  • Jordan Eberle selected #22 overall, ranked #29 (attended combine)
  • Johan Motin selected #103 overall, unranked (attended combine)

2009 Oilers draft

  • Magnus Paajarvi selected #10 overall, ranked #10 (attended combine)
  • Anton Lander selected #40 overall, ranked HM (attended combine)
  • Toni Rajala selected #101 overall, ranked #50 (attended combine)
  • Olivier Roy selected #133 overall, ranked HM (attended combine)

2010 Oilers draft

  • Taylor Hall selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
  • Tyler Pitlick selected #31, ranked #25 (attended combine)
  • Martin Marincin selected #46, ranked #71 (attended combine)
  • Curtis Hamilton selected #48, ranked 57 (attended combine)
  • Ryan Martindale selected #61, ranked 58 (attended combine)
  • Tyler Bunz selected #121, not ranked (attended combine)
  • Brandon Davidson selected #162, not ranked (attended combine)

2011 Oilers draft

  • Ryan Nugent Hopkins selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
  • Oscar Klefbom selected #19, ranked #21 (attended combine)
  • David Musil selected #31, ranked #41 (attended combine)
  • Samu Perhonen selected #62, ranked #51 (attended combine)
  • Travis Ewanyk selected #74, ranked HM (attended combine)
  • Tobias Rieder selected #114, unranked (attended combine)

2012 Oilers draft

  • Nail Yakupov selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
  • Mitchell Moroz selected #32, ranked #56 (attended combine)
  • Jujhar Khaira selected #63, not ranked (attended combine)
  • Daniil Zharkov selected #91, ranked #47 (attended combine)

2013 Oilers draft

  • Darnell Nurse selected #7, ranked #9 (attended combine)
  • Marco Roy selected #56, ranked #59 (attended combine)
  • Bogdan Yakimov selected #83 not ranked (attended combine)
  • Jackson Houck, selected #94 not ranked (attended combine)

2014 Oilers draft

  • Leon Draisaitl selected #3, ranked #4 (attended combine)

2015 Oilers draft

  • Connor McDavid selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
  • Caleb Jones selected #117, ranked #130 ISS (attended combine)
  • Ethan Bear selected #124, ranked #78 ISS (attended combine)
  • John Marino selected #154, ranked #95 ISS (attended combine)

As you can see, with the exception of 2014 (what in HELL were they thinking?) we have a trend. It is also interesting to see a name like Caleb Jones, who would have been invited by one or more NHL clubs (the NHL invites the top 100 or so, and teams submit a list of extras they would like to see). I looked at some curios last June and found Jones stood out.

THIS SEASON’S CURIOS

  • R William Knierim, Dubuque Fightings Saints (USHL). A huge winger (6.03, 198) who scored a little (54, 14-13-27, NHLE is just 11) and is ranked No. 149 CS NA. Someone likes him, might be the Oilers.
  • LD Josh Mahura, Red Deer Rebels (WHL). Young man was not on the Central rankings, he missed 70 games during the regular season due to injury.
  • C Brett Murray, Carleton Place Canadians (CCHL). He is inside the top 100 for CS NA, but if I don’t mention him here it will not happen before the draft. A tall drink of water playing in a somewhat obscure league, on his way to Penn State next year.
  • R Eetu Tuulola, HPK (Sm-Liiga). I ranked him in my look at Finland, but he isn’t among the top 100 based on rank (No. 19 Euro). Someone likes him, he is 6.03, 225. Could be a target for the Oilers.
  • List is here.

hennesseyj

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Today on the show, 10 this morning on TSN1260:

  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey and Oilers Nation. We will discuss recent moves by the Oilers, including the two new college hires and Peter Chiarelli’s verbal surrounding No. 4 overall.
  • Tyler Karwandy, Rider Prophet. It is CFL draft day, Tyler runs the best team blog in the league and his mock has the Roughriders going for an Olineman. We will chat about it.
  • Brian King, NonStopSportsPicks. The Eskimos are pretty well covered in roster Canadians, so I wonder what they will do at the draft? Brian has the answers.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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Philosophil

Too late to the discussion from this morning, however LT’s Curious include Mahura, another local (St.Albert) player. His stock could rise if he plays in the Memorial Cup. Can’t ever predict the next Parayko (or Iginla), but an invite to 2016 Oiler rookie camp could be in order.

Woodguy

Fog of Warts,

2 lbs of 30%-fat Halal ground beef for BBQ hamburgers (Egyptian butcher)

My somewhat local Lebanese butcher makes a killer kafta meat mix.

Love it.

Woodguy

AsiaOil:
Think NJD would take Yak and Fayne for Severson? Not like they have any cap issues and they know Fayne who is a RHD like Severson.

If you retained on Fayne a bit (hold back $1MM?) I bet they would.

They might do Yak-Severson straight up too.

AsiaOil

Think NJD would take Yak and Fayne for Severson? Not like they have any cap issues and they know Fayne who is a RHD like Severson.

Woodguy: Severson.

His contribution to possession and PP ability puts him first.

New Improved Darkness

Afternoon errands accomplished.

My extra amusement over the phubbing clip is that he might actually be staring at the blue-dress’s plunging apex, if the camera crew live-streamed the video feed to his phone to help Doofus Prime optimally position his leering hat-face (but not until after the actor recovers from bimbo akimbo syndrome—wait, wait, just a few more takes I’ll have these bent sight lines totally nailed; this also accounting for the authenticity of the lead actress’s quick, disapproving smack, and why the blue dress eye-rolls the camera with a private smirk before dropping her gaze to track the yellow hash marks banding her dignified lane past the camera stand).

Beautiful afternoon.

Got my favourite Montreal-style bagels, my favourite coffee beans (and my favourite macchiato), 2 lbs of 30%-fat Halal ground beef for BBQ hamburgers (Egyptian butcher), and managed to squeeze in a chapter of Too Big to Know under my favourite sidewalk cafe, people-watching shade tree, for which I was in exactly the right mood.

Full title: Too Big to Know: Rethinking Knowledge Now That the Facts Aren’t the Facts, Experts Are Everywhere, and the Smartest Person in the Room Is the Room.

As titles go, I guess it’s not a Pablo Diego José Francisco de Paula Juan Nepomuceno María de los Remedios Cipriano de la Santísima Trinidad Ruiz y Picasso.

Picasso came before 80-column punch cards (or he might not now be remembered at all), whereas Weinberger’s 147-character title is (I strongly suspect) an intentional gift of blue balls to the blue bird. His little joke—if it is a joke—won’t survive translation to Spartan sparrows of an Asian feather.

On Zuosa, in just 114 Chinese characters, the Dell account was able to tweet the following:

Dell’s National Day Sale will run from Sept 11 to Oct 8. To celebrate the 60th anniversary w. the motherland, Dell Home Computers is offering 6 cool gifts & deals on 10 computer models. These exciting offers will run non-stop for 4 weeks. Also, get a free upgrade to color casing & a 512MB independent graphics card, as well as other service upgrades. All offers are on a first-come-first-serve basis. What R U waiting 4? Act now! [Link]

Source: Lauren Dugan.

Woodguy

bendelson:
Question for the group.

You have an opportunity to land a young 3RD in a trade.Assuming identical and acceptable acquisition costs, which player somewhere in the ‘valley-of-doubt’ do you choose?

Severson
Pysyk
Miller (hi ricki)
Other?

(Note:I would place Trouba/Vatanen/Barrie/Faulk in the 2RD category)

Severson.

His contribution to possession and PP ability puts him first.

Alpine

You’re really just trading upside with Nurse for upside and more development/offense with Trouba. I think it’s about as fair a trade for both teams as you’ll find out there. Kinda like the Pysyk-Reinhart trade idea. I get that Nurse is a pretty unique prospect for how mean he is in correspondence with his talent level, but there’s still concern that he ends up more mean than talented at the NHL level.

Ca$h-McMoney!

BONVIE: Oilers just got rid of Shultz they don’t need another offense first who does not cares about defense.

That’s not fair.

If Schultz had actually produced offense a lot of people would have been OK with him.

But he didn’t.

In his final year here he posted offense at a rate below that of Roman Polak on the leafs/sharks.

Roman Polak.

All this with lots of minutes with great linemates. He was basically in charge of passing the puck to Taylor Hall and still didn’t manage to generate even tertiary offense. He was not an offensive Dman in his last year here. He was a defensive Dman who couldn’t defend.

AsiaOil

The things you have to like about Trouba are size, a bit of snarl, skating, and triple the points production of Nurse at one year younger in age. Yes his offense slipped back – but dmen do not develop in straight lines – and it’s still double Nurse’s offensive production. If we can pretty much swap him for Nurse straight across you do it – and then try sign Demers as UFA. Big thing is will Trouba agree to the Klefbom contract for at least the first 4 years.

Klef Demers
Sekera Trouba
Reinhart Davidson Fayne

Depth at RHD is still worrying but Rome was not built in a day and we still have Yak, an Austin and #4 as trade chips.

Woodguy

Ducey,

I know the analytics people love it because secretly they all think they could do the same thing.

Oh, I think most analytics people overtly think they could do the same thing.

Given the track record of many on here and some previous posters (like Tyler, Dennis etc) on calling signings/trades the day they happen they are probably right too.

But being a GM is a tough job. This guy has never been involved in running a draft, making a trade, dealing with the finances, fans, media, crazy owners, etc.
I don’t know anyone that is as good at their job (besides being an athlete) at 26 as they are at 46.
Experience matters.
No problem if this guy was an assistant GM for 5 years and was ready to step in. This guy did it for like 8 months.
But I would be very upset if he was just appointed Oilers GM.

I agree with this 100%.

There are many facets of the job that will take time to understand and do well.

How he will do will depend on how wise he is.

A wise man knows what he does not know.

The ability to recognize what you do not know and get help in those areas can be the difference between success and failure in any management position or anything really.

Woodguy

godot10,

Gotta say you’re killing it in the thread today with many posts and like AO I love your “Valley of doubt” post regardless of how much I like / don’t like Trouba.

Great stuff.

AsiaOil

I hope so – we are a good match as they have a hole at LHD where we are strong

I honestly think that Nurse will be a 2020 version of Jason Smith. Even defensive dmen need elite skating ability now to compete – and I just don’t see his offense appearing out of nowhere. He could be top pair – but would need to play with a skilled RHD or it will kill your offense. Eye-glow only gets you to the 3rd pair. That’s my take on Nurse – Jason Smith with wheels.

BONVIE: Oilers just got rid of Shultz they don’t need another offense first who does not cares about defense. So i am hoping people ease off on suggesting Barrie or worse yet Keith Yandle. The Oilers need a solid veteran Dman who can control the game like Myers, the Oilers seem to be persistent on running 4 forwards on their PP so what they need out of their D is a heavy shot from the point and Myers provides a heavy shot from the right side, in Winnipeg he is the second best heavy shot Dman as Byfulgian plays on his team and has an even heavier more accurate shot than Myers so when i have seen him on the PP with Buff he is actually feeding his one timer instead of shooting. Myers really duplicates Buff in alot of areas and Winnipeg just dumped alot of money on Buff, Truoba is also a right hander, so they have 3 rights in there top 4, I think he can be pried out for the right offensive player.

BONVIE

JimmyV1965: Myers has never posted good offensive numbers. He doesn’t play with an edge like Nurse. He may develop into a top pairing dman but we need a proven player.

Oilers just got rid of Shultz they don’t need another offense first who does not cares about defense. So i am hoping people ease off on suggesting Barrie or worse yet Keith Yandle. The Oilers need a solid veteran Dman who can control the game like Myers, the Oilers seem to be persistent on running 4 forwards on their PP so what they need out of their D is a heavy shot from the point and Myers provides a heavy shot from the right side, in Winnipeg he is the second best heavy shot Dman as Byfulgian plays on his team and has an even heavier more accurate shot than Myers so when i have seen him on the PP with Buff he is actually feeding his one timer instead of shooting. Myers really duplicates Buff in alot of areas and Winnipeg just dumped alot of money on Buff, Truoba is also a right hander, so they have 3 rights in there top 4, I think he can be pried out for the right offensive player.

AsiaOil

Spot on…..

If we want Trouba then this summer is the only opportunity. One of Nurse or GR needs to be moved to get it done. It really depends on what mgmt thinks after a full year of viewing Nurse. It’s a mixed bag really. Sure the toughness and skating is wonderful – but beyond that – there are serious questions. He’s pretty much clueless in the offensive zone. Even GR was able to create several 5 alarms back door chances that he just missed on last season. Nurse’s classic skate the puck into the offensive zone at top speed and then go for a pointless trip around the net or take a useless sharp angle shot did not speak to elite offensive creativity. Defensively he also had major issues which may or may not resolve. Point is – he is certainly no sure thing – and if WPG would do Trouba for Nurse straight up you seriously consider it as it resolves part of the LHD/RHD issue. You want Trouba signed to the Klef contract though. Nurse is nowhere close to Trouba in terms of offense as you can see below.

Trouba
2013-14 (age 19) 65GP 10-19-29 +4 43PIM
2014-15 (age 20) 65GP 7-15-22 +2 46PIM
2014-15 (age 21) 81GP 6-15-21 +10 62PIM

Nurse
2014-15 (age 20) 69GP 3-7-10 -13 60PIM

godot10: The only time one can get these D is when they are passing through the valley of doubt, after the draft potential shine has worn off, and before they have the experience to begin realizing that potential.

Adam Larsson might have been available when he was in the valley-of-doubt, but having passed through, he is now basically unavailable and would require a massive overpay.

Reinhart and Nurse are currently in the valley-of-doubt, like Trouba, like Fowler was the season before this one.

Is there risk?Yes.

In the UFA market one has to overpay for D.

It is why one has to develop D in-house.

If the OIlers like Trouba, the only time they are going to be able to get him is when there is a cloud hanging over him.

There are no risk free moves for D.Vatanen is most likely to be available in a trade that doesn’t scare the hell out of us.Demers is going to be overpaid as a UFA.

JimmyV1965

JOHNNY OPERATOR76: How has he failed?I realize you have been a regular poster here for a long time but really? Either of those two guys would be on our 1st pairing …Easy . picking in the top of the draft every year, thats dissapointing.

Myers has never posted good offensive numbers. He doesn’t play with an edge like Nurse. He may develop into a top pairing dman but we need a proven player.

russ99

blainer:

Nurse for Trouba straight up. Winnipeg could use a lefty with sooo much talent on the right side.

I can’t see in a million years why the Oilers would do that.

Just for handedness? Play Nurse on the right side, he’s young enough to adapt, problem solved.

Trouba is kind of the player Nurse will be in 2 years if he somehow doesn’t develop as much as everyone expects.

To which I have no doubts that he will develop further.

JimmyV1965

BONVIE: someone

Don’t expect offence from Myers. He’s never put up decent numbers in junior or the NHL. The exception would be his rookie year in Buffalo. Tyson Barrie put up way better numbers than Myers for the two years they played together in Keliwna and Barrie was a year younger.

who

godot10: Myers is not a first pairing D.He has “failed” there in Buffalo and Winnipeg.He is a 2nd pairing D.

i.e. he a much like Dion Phaneuf, a very good 2nd pairing defensemen.If you expect him to be first pairing, you will be disappointed.

Don’t really see him as failing anywhere. He was too young in Buffalo (great rookie year probably set the bar too high) and has been good in Winnipeg. I doubt the Jets would be willing to move him but I would take him if they did. The only concern with Myers is the hip surgery he is having this summer.. I am guessing Trouba would cost considerably less in salary and acquisition cost.

frjohnk

With Hamonic now off the market, and if Demers is indeed headed to free agency, I wonder if Chia would trade a conditional pick for Demers rights before the draft to at least get a swing in before the draft.

If Demers does not want to come here, then Chia needs to get something done by the draft to add to the Dcore.

I like Demers, but with Sekera already having one, I wouldn’t give Demers a NMC. With a possibly expansion draft coming up, I bet many UFA’s will be looking at getting a NMC.

HT Joe

Магия 10: The value of Tippet’s experience is better as a feedback loop than as brakes or tangents.

Yes… I agree entirely.

N64

HeatTreaterJoe: However, he will likely benefit by surrounding himself with good personnel for helping with management and trade/re-signing negotiations (but again, this could be true for a GM of any age as well).

I’d imagine he did not get to do the surrounding yet. The question is does Tippet add or subtract. It will work if he’s good at selecting the targets and is the primary driver. The value of Tippet’s experience is better as a feedback loop than as brakes or tangents.

bendelson

Question for the group.

You have an opportunity to land a young 3RD in a trade. Assuming identical and acceptable acquisition costs, which player somewhere in the ‘valley-of-doubt’ do you choose?

Severson
Pysyk
Miller (hi ricki)
Other?

(Note: I would place Trouba/Vatanen/Barrie/Faulk in the 2RD category)

dustrock

If you like Tkachuk, you’ll find evidence why he should be the favorite pick at #4.

If you dislike Tkachuk, you’ll find evidence why he shouldn’t be the favorite pick at #4.

Replace “Tkachuk”, with “Dubois”, “Brown”, “Chychrun”, “Sergachev”, “Nylander”, and “Juolevi” at will.

N64

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!: As a Yankees fan let’s call 2004 (and the coming back from an 0-3) what it was. A damn fluke! Yes Epstien won but it was at least partially led by a bit of 2006 Oilers luck. (In another words I had to eat serious crow from a Red Sox buddy of mine for years after that Yankees collapse and I’m still bitter about it hahaha)

Only problem with that is they did sweep the Cards and they were built for another.
Bad enough to lose 3 straight. Good enough to win 4 straight.
No matter the order of the W and L the sample size for the AL series was 7 games.

And to cut back to who got fleeced the Nomar trade put that team over the top.

JOHNNY OPERATOR76

godot10: Myers is not a first pairing D.He has “failed” there in Buffalo and Winnipeg.He is a 2nd pairing D.

i.e. he a much like Dion Phaneuf, a very good 2nd pairing defensemen.If you expect him to be first pairing, you will be disappointed.

How has he failed? I realize you have been a regular poster here for a long time but really? Either of those two guys would be on our 1st pairing …Easy . picking in the top of the draft every year, thats dissapointing.

N64

godot10: Bob McKenzie’s list is NOT his list or reflect his personal opinions at all.It is an aggregated list of 10 actual NHL scouts.

9 of the 10 surveyed had Tkachuk at #4 or #5. They had Dubois in 7-8 as much as 5-6. Bob gives them equal upside with Dubois being full 200′ and Tkachuk very effective at getting to the net to score.

Dubois is rising. Tkachuk could be our guy on the porch or you trade if you get a real difference maker. Nice problem to have.

UPDATE: And we still do not have Bob’s final June survey. If we are going by consensus it will be interesting to see if the separation is still shrinking.

HT Joe

Ducey: No anger. Just skepticism at the age more than him being a math geek.

But being a GM is a tough job.This guy has never been involved in running a draft, making a trade, dealing with the finances, fans, media, crazy owners, etc.

I don’t know anyone that is as good at their job (besides being an athlete) at 26 as they are at 46.

Experience matters.

I would agree that experience matters with negotiating and personnel management. However, I think it was in the book “Fermat’s Enigma” where the author went to great lengths to explain that math is the field where you are expected to make your greatest contribution to the field during your 20’s.

If this young gentleman is making decisions based on math, and he’s good at math, age shouldn’t make an appreciable difference. He will not get better at math with age.

However, he will likely benefit by surrounding himself with good personnel for helping with management and trade/re-signing negotiations (but again, this could be true for a GM of any age as well).

godot10

BONVIE:
A Winnipeg option for us would be Tyler Myers. Has mostly played top pair throughout his career. Myers with a Klefbom would be a great top pair. Myers is Just entering his prime years, has a good contract, heavy shot, right hand, physical, good skater who can really control the game

Myers is not a first pairing D. He has “failed” there in Buffalo and Winnipeg. He is a 2nd pairing D.

i.e. he a much like Dion Phaneuf, a very good 2nd pairing defensemen. If you expect him to be first pairing, you will be disappointed.

square_wheels

RPG:
Arthur Staple ‏@StapeNewsday 2m

Breaking #Isles news: Travis Hamonic has rescinded his trade request, Newsday has learned. More to follow.

To quote the always wise Ricky (TPB Ricky not our Ricki!) – I toad a so, I fucking TOAD A SO !

Hamonic and his agent finally clued in that the team owns your ass for 4 additional years and really gives zero fucks about how close you want to be to your family.

Of course this moves the target for a pair of top 4 RHD, but we’ve got oodles of NHL forwards, surely we can send 2 or 3 of them away for projecting top 4 NHL D. (dripping sarcasm folks)

#pleasedonttradeNUGEorHALL

BONVIE

blainer:
Hey Pouzar…

Happy to see ya back. Your comments are always entertaining..

Gotta question for ya..

I know you are a huge fan of Nurse..

With your living in the peg what would you think of a Nurse for Trouba straight up. Winnipeg could use a lefty with sooo much talent on the right side.

With Hamonic off the table the options just got a lot smaller.

Trouba is a young Defenseman with good potential, we have a ton of Defenseman with good potential our problem is not having talented young Defenseman with tremendous upside, our problem lies with lacking the experienced Defenseman to break these talents into the NHL.

Show me a good young Dman who excelled breaking into the NHL and then look at his partner, and you will see a competent veteran.

I would like to see all of Davidson, Rheinhart, and Nurse be in our top 7 all fairly inexperienced but promising options. Sekera would look great on the second pair with anyone of these young D.

A Winnipeg option for us would be Tyler Myers. Has mostly played top pair throughout his career. Myers with a Klefbom would be a great top pair. Myers is Just entering his prime years, has a good contract, heavy shot, right hand, physical, good skater who can really control the game

Fayne and Gryba would be decent playing as veteran partner with the third pair.

Klefbom Myers
Sekera Davidson
Reinhart Vataanen
Gryba Nurse
Osterle Musil

An upgrade on Fayne to a Vataanen would allow a few more options.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Pouzar: The KC Royals, Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates, TB Rays, NY Mets…..
Money helps but you can win by building from within. The Red Sox did it, the Cubs are a juggernaut now, the Rays have been competitive for years, Pirates, etc. Money is nice but not the be all end all. The Yankees were at their best when they developed their dynasty through the minors (Jeter, Posada, Pettite, Rivera, Bernie Williams). You don’t need huge $$ to build a solid organization that can compete.

As a Yankees fan let’s call 2004 (and the coming back from an 0-3) what it was. A damn fluke! Yes Epstien won but it was at least partially led by a bit of 2006 Oilers luck. (In another words I had to eat serious crow from a Red Sox buddy of mine for years after that Yankees collapse and I’m still bitter about it hahaha)

JOHNNY OPERATOR76

Proves my point even more THX

godot10

JOHNNY OPERATOR76:
Theres a reason Bob Mackenzie has Tkachuk @#4 , My guess is because he has watched these prospects play a bunch and because he is much smarter than all of us when it comes to amateur scouting. C’mon boys , Dubois? History repeats itself . Youre going to pass on Keiths son? Not a chance if youre keepin the pick. Keith was a great player , his boy will be too.

Bob McKenzie’s list is NOT his list or reflect his personal opinions at all. It is an aggregated list of 10 actual NHL scouts.

godot10

Ducey: No anger. Just skepticism at the age more than him being a math geek.

I know the analytics people love it because secretly they all think they could do the same thing.

But being a GM is a tough job.This guy has never been involved in running a draft, making a trade, dealing with the finances, fans, media, crazy owners, etc.

I don’t know anyone that is as good at their job (besides being an athlete) at 26 as they are at 46.

Experience matters.

No problem if this guy was an assistant GM for 5 years and was ready to step in.This guy did it for like 8 months.

But I would be very upset if he was just appointed Oilers GM.

Tippett is the real GM. When your coach is the GM, it is really hard to find a properly-trained GM to take the job.

Arizona is the Maple Leafs, when Fletcher moved on, and Quinn was the coach, and Ferguson was brought in to be “the GM”…Quinn was the real GM.

Just like when Lowe or Sinden or Pulford were best buds of the owner, it was next to impossible to high a properly-trained GM.

Arizona has moved to a coach-centric model. Tippett won the turf war with Maloney.

Some coach-centric GM models work in the NFL. More fail than succeed, but some succeed.

It tends to be really difficult for a coach to separate the GM hat from the coach hat. The coach’s opinion of a player tends to contaminate the GM’s opinion of the player.

Daryl Sutter is a good example of this, and really good coach.

Sutter the GM failed Sutter the coach when he held both roles.

JOHNNY OPERATOR76

Theres a reason Bob Mackenzie has Tkachuk @#4 , My guess is because he has watched these prospects play a bunch and because he is much smarter than all of us when it comes to amateur scouting. C’mon boys , Dubois? History repeats itself . Youre going to pass on Keiths son? Not a chance if youre keepin the pick. Keith was a great player , his boy will be too.

frjohnk

rickithebear:
last year:
reinhart: #4 2012
1. #121 comp
2. #223 .14 EVP/60
3. #213 .00 A1/60
4. #204 13.61 HSCA/60
5. #1 D PKGA 1.37 1.63 PKTOI

S. Jones #4 2013 draft
1. #121 Comp
2. #94 D .74 EVP/60
3. #46 D A1/60
4. #207/208 D 13.81 HSCA/60
5. #94 D 6.71 PKGA/60

they are both awful even options for defencemen.

Which Jones are you talking about?
The Seth Jones who played in Nashville before he was traded and had a HSCA/60 of 8.3
or the Seth Jones who played in Columbus after the trade and had a HSCA/60 of 13.8.

HSCA/60 for a player is an on ice metric just like all on ice metrics, that is heavily influenced by the other 9 skaters on the ice and only marginally influenced by said player.

There is a significant list of Dmen in the past few years who have switched teams and their on ice metrics are not consistent from team to team.

Some Dmen have gone from having good/incredible on ice metrics on one team, to getting destroyed on another team. (Bogosian/Fayne/Hamilton). Other Dmen have gone from getting destroyed when looking at on ice metrics to having good/decent on ice metrics on another team. ( Kris Russell, Tyler Myers)

blainer

Pouzar: Thx B….life is extremely busy at the moment (“studying” as we speak) so I won’t be around much till July-ish. Stupid work, school, soccer, jiu-jitsu, golf, life, etc etc.

Not a big Trouba guy. I would echo what Cash said above. He hasn’t progressed from his rookie year like one would have hoped. The fan base here have really soured on him based on the comments of people at work and my season ticket holder buds. And I really liked Trouba pre-draft too. But d-men, they develop in all sorts of non-linear ways and stuff. I can’t speak for his fancies but I would think his performance would have something to do with a an uptick in competition.

Ya really did not see him much. The Oil really think of Nurse as their potential number 1 D and I really think it will take a massive offer for them to consider moving him.

Should be a crazy week come the end of June.

godot10

Pouzar: Thx B….life is extremely busy at the moment (“studying” as we speak) so I won’t be around much till July-ish. Stupid work, school, soccer, jiu-jitsu, golf, life, etc etc.

Not a big Trouba guy. I would echo what Cash said above. He hasn’t progressed from his rookie year like one would have hoped. The fan base here have really soured on him based on the comments of people at work and my season ticket holder buds. And I really liked Trouba pre-draft too. But d-men, they develop in all sorts of non-linear ways and stuff. I can’t speak for his fancies but I would think his performance would have something to do with a an uptick in competition.

The only time one can get these D is when they are passing through the valley of doubt, after the draft potential shine has worn off, and before they have the experience to begin realizing that potential.

Adam Larsson might have been available when he was in the valley-of-doubt, but having passed through, he is now basically unavailable and would require a massive overpay.

Reinhart and Nurse are currently in the valley-of-doubt, like Trouba, like Fowler was the season before this one.

Is there risk? Yes.

In the UFA market one has to overpay for D.

It is why one has to develop D in-house.

If the OIlers like Trouba, the only time they are going to be able to get him is when there is a cloud hanging over him.

There are no risk free moves for D. Vatanen is most likely to be available in a trade that doesn’t scare the hell out of us. Demers is going to be overpaid as a UFA.

Ducey

Woodguy:
Ducey,

Boy genius in ARZ will have a team imposed budget….

I doubt the new wonderboy in ARZ wants to trade two firsts for #4.

Boy genius.

Wonderboy.

You have a lot of anger towards ARI’s new GM.

Did a group of mathletes beat you senseless with slide-rules and stuff spreadsheets in your mouth when you were in high school?

Seriously, I look at a 26 get named GM and think “Good for you man!! I was happy to be named Sales Manager at that age and I thought I was kicking out the jams”

Lots of anger there Ducey, its not healthy.

No anger. Just skepticism at the age more than him being a math geek.

I know the analytics people love it because secretly they all think they could do the same thing.

But being a GM is a tough job. This guy has never been involved in running a draft, making a trade, dealing with the finances, fans, media, crazy owners, etc.

I don’t know anyone that is as good at their job (besides being an athlete) at 26 as they are at 46.

Experience matters.

No problem if this guy was an assistant GM for 5 years and was ready to step in. This guy did it for like 8 months.

But I would be very upset if he was just appointed Oilers GM.

N64

Ca$h-McMoney!: at one sentence at the bottom makes your post understandable to someone like me

Ricky, but does awful even mean extremely even or they are even in being awful?

~ Thank goodness you include a few numbers to help us interpret your torrent of words. ~

Pouzar

blainer:
Hey Pouzar…

Happy to see ya back. Your comments are always entertaining..

Gotta question for ya..

I know you are a huge fan of Nurse..

With your living in the peg what would you think of a Nurse for Trouba straight up. Winnipeg could use a lefty with sooo much talent on the right side.

With Hamonic off the table the options just got a lot smaller.

Thx B….life is extremely busy at the moment (“studying” as we speak) so I won’t be around much till July-ish. Stupid work, school, soccer, jiu-jitsu, golf, life, etc etc.

Not a big Trouba guy. I would echo what Cash said above. He hasn’t progressed from his rookie year like one would have hoped. The fan base here have really soured on him based on the comments of people at work and my season ticket holder buds. And I really liked Trouba pre-draft too. But d-men, they develop in all sorts of non-linear ways and stuff. I can’t speak for his fancies but I would think his performance would have something to do with a an uptick in competition.

JimmyV1965

bobinyvr:
While the trade may have been an overpay (16 & 33), we cannot//should not discount the circumstances which lead to it:

Oilers were bereft of solid defense or high end defense prospects (Nurse aside).

Oilers needed defense upgrade ASAP.

Nicholson conducted forensic audit.

Most of scouting staff fired before draft. Green, MacTavish, Howson retained.

Chia hardly knew his organization or it’s prospects.

Most likely, with limited knowledge and upon the advice of Green, MacTavish, Howson he choose to “speed” up the process with a older prospect (4th overall) well known to the organization’s insiders.

Having fired the scouts who had abysmal record of drafting, should he have trusted their “list?”

The price seemed steep then and seems steep now but consider this:

Would you have traded Paajarvi (10) … assuming we still had him with either Pitlick (31) or Musil (31) or Moroz (32) for Reinhart? I think most fans would have been on board with this last summer and even today.

And if this was/is an overreach/overpay then I say it reflects more on Green, MacTavish, Howson than on Chia or Reinhart.

And if Chia now feels he was misinformed, I suspect MacTavish or Howson will be gone before Reinhart. Can’t happen soon enough IMHO.

Totally agree with this. But even beyond that. Every GM has the potential of striking out with every deal they make. The good ones hit more homers than whiffs. The bad ones do nothing. They tinker around the edges, the overlpay for free agents. They essentially do nothing and hope the issues resolve themselves. As I see it, PC has hit more homers then whiffs. The only way I lose confidence in him this summer is if he steals a page from MacT and Tambs and tries to fix the defence by simply overpaying for free-agent dmen like Deners and not trading for someone who can actually make a difference.

LadiesloveSmid

Woodguy,

I agree. If you’re willing to hire the guy as GM even though he’s only 26, he’s gotta be pretty damn smart. I know Dubas in TOR sure is

Woodguy

Ducey,

Boy genius in ARZ will have a team imposed budget….

I doubt the new wonderboy in ARZ wants to trade two firsts for #4.

Boy genius.

Wonderboy.

You have a lot of anger towards ARI’s new GM.

Did a group of mathletes beat you senseless with slide-rules and stuff spreadsheets in your mouth when you were in high school?

Seriously, I look at a 26 get named GM and think “Good for you man!! I was happy to be named Sales Manager at that age and I thought I was kicking out the jams”

Lots of anger there Ducey, its not healthy.

who

godot10:
Offer sheet Trouba…if one cannot make a trade with the Jets for him.

Reinhart and the #4OV for Trouba and Hutchinson

Don’t know if I want to give up the pick. Given that Winnipeg is a budget team do you think they would be willing to take Davidson even up for Trouba. If not what would the Oilers have to add?

Ca$h-McMoney!

rickithebear:
last year:
reinhart: #4 2012
1. #121 comp
2. #223 .14 EVP/60
3. #213 .00 A1/60
4. #204 13.61 HSCA/60
5. #1 D PKGA 1.37 1.63 PKTOI

S. Jones #4 2013 draft
1. #121 Comp
2. #94 D .74 EVP/60
3. #46 D A1/60
4. #207/208 D 13.81 HSCA/60
5. #94 D 6.71 PKGA/60

they are both awful even options for defencemen.

Ricki,

Thank you. That one sentence at the bottom makes your post understandable to someone like me who has a hard time parsing the wall of numbers and abbreviation without a clear sense of the point trying to be communicated.

Please continue with the format good sir.

blainer

Hey Pouzar…

Happy to see ya back. Your comments are always entertaining..

Gotta question for ya..

I know you are a huge fan of Nurse..

With your living in the peg what would you think of a Nurse for Trouba straight up. Winnipeg could use a lefty with sooo much talent on the right side.

With Hamonic off the table the options just got a lot smaller.

Pouzar

Ducey: He had the second highest payroll in baseball all his years in Boston. Its not tough to win when you can outspend most of your opponents by a significant margin.

In 2004 his opening day payroll was $125 Million. Tampa Bays was $25 Million. Toronto’s was $50 M. Baltimore’s was $51 M.

Boy genius in ARZ will have a team imposed budget that will be closer to the floor than the cap. His situation is closer to the Tampa Bay Rays than the Red Sox.

Maybe he can fluke out a Miami Marlins year every once and a while but he won’t be able to tear it down and live off TV revenue to do it.

The KC Royals, Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates, TB Rays, NY Mets…..
Money helps but you can win by building from within. The Red Sox did it, the Cubs are a juggernaut now, the Rays have been competitive for years, Pirates, etc. Money is nice but not the be all end all. The Yankees were at their best when they developed their dynasty through the minors (Jeter, Posada, Pettite, Rivera, Bernie Williams). You don’t need huge $$ to build a solid organization that can compete.

N64

LadiesloveSmid:
Магия 10,

Staffer said EDM would have taken Joel Eriksson Ek at 16, not Barzal or Connor

That was one of the 2 names that were floated the most just before and just after the draft. If we are assessing the value of the picks in the hands of Oiler amateur scouting vs. Reihnart that would be closer to the mark. But far better to go longitudinal and average out over a few years at that spot and/or with nearby picks.

bendelson

Centre of attention:
No Hamonic it sounds like. Vatanen and Demers it is I guess.

I guess this means Fayne stays? No way Peter can get 3 better D to replace Fayne now.

Severson for Yakupov?
Pysyk for Reinhart?

Yes, it’s doubtful we have three new and improved RD ready to go in September, but there are options beyond Vatanen and Demers out there…