RE 15-16 MATT HENDRICKS: DON’T LET THE DARKNESS

On a team with an endless future and miles of memories on the horizon, there are very few stories nearing their end. Matt Hendricks is a throwback in a sea of new beginnings—and he wears it well. (Don’t Let The Darkness).

MATT HENDRICKS 13-14

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.62 (13th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: nil
  • Qual Comp: 10th toughest competition among regulars (third-fourth line)
  • Qual Team: 12th best competition among regulars (fourth line)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 40.8
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -2.7
  • Zone Start: 16.2% (toughest on the team among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 49/6.1% (10th among F’s >45 or more shots)
  • Boxcars: 33, 3-0-3

MATT HENDRICKS 14-15

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.11 (8th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.44 (7th among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 7th toughest competition among regulars (third line)
  • Qual Team: 6th best competition among regulars (second line)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 45.1
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -10.7
  • Zone Start: 24.3% (2nd toughest on the team among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 103/7.8%
  • Boxcars: 71GP, 8-8-16

MATT HENDRICKS 15-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.76 (13th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 0.00
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 45.6
  • Qual Comp: 11th toughest competition among regulars (fourth line)
  • Qual Team: 15th best competition among regulars (fourth line)
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -9.2
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 62/8.1%
  • Boxcars: 68GP, 5-7-12 (.176)

WAR ON ICE PLAYER CHARTS

war on ice sledgehammer

Matt Hendricks shows up in the ‘easier opposition’ portion of the graph, and of course the zone starts (among those that started from a face-off) skewed to the defensive end.

RE 15-16: 60GP, 3-3-6 .100

ACTUAL 15-16: 68GP, 5-7-12 .176

  1. Did Todd McLellan use him differently? A little, but not often. Hendricks played on a skill line for a brief period (52 minutes with Nuge, 47 minutes with Hall) but that was about seven percent of his total 5×5 icetime.
  2. No difference at all under McLellan? More faceoffs (450 this year as opposed to 198 a year ago) but that probably had a lot to do with injury/ineffective player.
  3. That Lander, he is no good. Actually, Lander was solid in the FO circle.
  4. Did Hendricks set any career highs? Just the faceoffs.
  5. Did McLellan use his fourth-line a lot? In 2014-15, Dallas Eakins, Craig MacTavish and Todd Nelson used 10 men for 15 minutes or more a game (on average) at forward. Those gents used the fourth line (Hendricks, Boyd Gordon, others) about 13 minutes a night. In 2015-16, McLellan used nine men for 15 or more minutes per game (on average) at forward. McLellan used his fourth line (Hendricks, Korpikoski) over 13 minutes a night—but he rotated those men higher on the roster. Hendricks played about the same amount season over season, especially at 5×5.
  6. How good was his season? I think it was solid to good. Hendricks has been a very good Oiler and I think one of the few reliable bottom 6Fs during his time here.
  7. You didn’t like the trade. I felt they had to deal Dubnyk—he had cratered and the new coach had to move away from him—and you knew he wasn’t going to deliver a handsome return. I was okay with the deal, with those things understood.
  8. You hated the trade. One of the good things about these conversations is the evidence is readily available. I said Hendricks is a player we’ve discussed before, he brings clarity to the roster (Lander is probably gone, either back to Europe or to another team) and adds a physical element many felt the team needed, but he does not add that element on the skill lines. Source
  9. Dripping with hatred. I like both players in the deal, as is often the case in these things.
  10. How much time left on his contract? One more year, $1.85 million.
  11. Is he eroding as a player? Hendricks turns 35 in June and was never a skill player—he has never scored 10 goals in a season. He is in the range where his final season in the NHL will be his next poor one.
  12. Oh come on. That is how it works.
  13. Boy, the Oilers have ended a lot of careers. True, but Hendricks has done well in this environment. I don’t think anyone should feel sorry for him—to the contrary, I think it is fair to praise his ability to sustain this level at his age.
  14. Why do you like him? I think he is a capable veteran, and Edmonton needs these guys badly. If you look at Hendricks with or without Lauri Korpikoski at 5×5, you get a 47 percent Corsi player. Considering the defensive issues on this team, for me Hendricks is a player who is worth keeping around.
  15. Do you think they will they trade him? If they do it will be at the deadline.
  16. So, at the draft then? Book it.
  17. Were is offensive zone starts as severe this season? No. Hockey-reference has him at 39.7 Ozone as opposed to 24 percent a year ago.
  18. So maybe by running in place offensively and in Corsi, he is actually going backwards because he didn’t spike offensively? Hmmm. It could mean that, but his centers were Anton Lander and Mark Letestu. He played 124 5×5 minutes with Lander, no points. He did get six points with Letestu, in about six hours work.
  19. So this season is less about his erosion and more about his line? I think so, yes. He played with Letestu and Korpikoski on a line for 214 minutes and they posted a 45.60 Corsi for percentage at 5×5.
  20. Why this song? Such a wonderful song. I think it is about endings, and about giving everything and not having regrets—or at least trying to reach that point. I think it is a perfect song for Matt Henrdicks, now.

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56 Responses to "RE 15-16 MATT HENDRICKS: DON’T LET THE DARKNESS"

  1. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Captain of the US national team 2 years in a row now.

    I don’t need a roster full of these players, but I’m happy to have one.

    He’s the team Dad, which to me is a requirement if you are going to put a lot of pressure on kids to carry the day. Boyd Gordon was the same, but at this stage of their careers I’d rather have Hendricks.

    Frankly I’d put the C on him next year. Connor transitions into the role in his third year.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Chris Nichols
    ‏@NicholsOnHockey

    McKenzie, on #Oilers having to shore up blueline, and change the mix up front: “It’s going to happen. It’s just a matter of when and where.”

  3. pts2pndr says:

    Hendricks should have been made team captain instead of Ference! Another huge done by Dallas!
    Lander plays better with good players and is not a driver, he is however a class act and a true competitor. I wish him well wherever he ends up! Time will show that very little was handled correctly under Mr Eakins. His hire and subsequent stubborn support will unfortunately be MacTs legacy!

  4. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide:
    Chris Nichols
    ‏@NicholsOnHockey

    McKenzie, on #Oilers having to shore up blueline, and change the mix up front: “It’s going to happen. It’s just a matter of when and where.”

    Nuge for Clarkson (e4)

    But seriously though. “Changing the mix up front” is so delightfully vague. It could mean anything. Or nothing at all.

    I think we have the trade candidate from the Hall cluster surrounded. Its most likely Eberle. The Islanders dropping out of possible trade scenarios makes things interesting though. Perhaps it doesn’t happen this summer, as even the great Bob McKenzie can’t nail down a time & place for a 6 million dollar player trade.

  5. square_wheels says:

    Biggest improvement in the Pens could be the fact they’re healthy. If the Oilers can emerge as a young Pitt I’d be a happy camper.

    Poor Alzner, have always thought highly of him.

  6. Lowetide says:

    square_wheels:
    Biggest improvement in the Pens could be the fact they’re healthy. If the Oilers can emerge as a young Pitt I’d be a happy camper.

    Poor Alzner, have always thought highly of him.

    Yeah, that was a piece of bad luck but the Caps were dead before it.

  7. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide:
    Chris Nichols
    ‏@NicholsOnHockey

    McKenzie, on #Oilers having to shore up blueline, and change the mix up front: “It’s going to happen. It’s just a matter of when and where.”

    So with Hamonic no longer likely to be in the cards, I was thinking…

    Follow Woodguy’s thinking: Yakupov for Severson

    If Nashville loses tomorrow: 4th overall, 32nd overall, and free option on Fayne(Nashville can have him if they want…or not–depending on their cap and need for a fill-in) for Mattias Ekholm and Nashville 1st (23rd overall)

    or…

    4th overall for Ellis and 23rd overall?

    Nashville gets Dubois to fill their 2C role behind Johansen and increase their scoring up front. Would you do it if you were Chia? Would Poile do it? His scouts and the team’s development style produce so many good D-men, that he may feel he can replace a D more easily than get a high end forward to go with Forsberg, Johansen, Neal.

    Sign Demers if Fayne goes for Ekholm.

    Ideal scenario:
    Klefbom-Ekholm
    Sekera-Demers
    Davidson-Severson
    Reinhart/Nurse

    Backup scenario
    Klefbom-Ellis
    Sekera-Fayne
    Davidson-Severson
    Reinhart/Nurse

    I know I’m probably dreaming but just trying to think of something new/different from the usual.

  8. Alpine says:

    3 protected D spots for the expansion draft really sucks. I guess when it comes to that, the Oilers will protect Klefbom, Sekera, and whoever the 1RD (Ellis, Vatanen, Demers) is.

  9. Lowetide says:

    I like the idea of Yakupov for Severson, but am not fond of dealing Fayne until Edmonton is sure to have three better RH options. I think a summer that brings Demers and Severson is good not great, but would be happier with Fayne as 3D as opposed to Gryba, et cetera.

  10. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide:
    I like the idea of Yakupov for Severson, but am not fond of dealing Fayne until Edmonton is sure to have three better RH options. I think a summer that brings Demers and Severson is good not great, but would be happier with Fayne as 3D as opposed to Gryba, et cetera.

    I agree with you on Fayne. That’s why I laid out two scenarios. Fayne only becomes a luxury if you can get an Ekholm, a Demers, and a Severson. That’s 2 D that are definitely better than him, and one that’s debatable, but is cheaper and has more upside.

    Otherwise, in my other scenario, Fayne stays and plays as the 2nd pair RHD with Sekera.

  11. Lowetide says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: I agree with you on Fayne. That’s why I laid out two scenarios. Fayne only becomes a luxury if you can get an Ekholm, a Demers, and a Severson. That’s 2 D that are definitely better than him, and one that’s debatable, but is cheaper and has more upside.

    Otherwise, in my other scenario, Fayne stays and plays as the 2nd pair RHD with Sekera.

    Yep. Okay, were good to go!! 🙂

  12. AsiaOil says:

    Lowetide,

    LT if ever was a team in need of a 3-1 trade it’s NJD next year – they have almost no one signed.

  13. square_wheels says:

    LT – your intermission/companion PbP show is worth a couple $$. Just listening to intelligent discussion about the previous 20mims is worth some scratch.

    HNIC is pointless, poor Elliot……how is anyone at Rogers happy with this production ?

    However – I’ve never be as excited for anything in the hockey production space as I am with this “maybe” show.

  14. John Chambers says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I like this line of thinking. Nas could lose a D in the exp draft and they need scoring depth.

    Another team that fits the criteria is Minny. A similar deal involving Spurgeon and a swap of draft picks to me sounds equitable.

  15. square_wheels says:

    So if Calgary trades something for Fleury should we be concerned ?

    This Murray kid is legit.

  16. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I’m thinking the trading of Jones cemented Ellis in NSH until his gorgeous contract runs out.

    Think Vatanen is their guy, maybe they give a guy like Pysyk a look for the bottom of the roster.

    If they give Demers a NMC, then him and Sekera are cemented in for the expansion draft and EDM has to lose one of Klef/Davidson/Whoever else they acquire this summer. Steer clear if that’s the case IMO

  17. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    I’m thinking the trading of Jones cemented Ellis in NSH until his gorgeous contract runs out.

    Think Vatanen is their guy, maybe they give a guy like Pysyk a look for the bottom of the roster.

    If they give Demers a NMC, then him and Sekera are cemented in for the expansion draft and EDM has to lose one of Klef/Davidson/Whoever else they acquire this summer. Steer clear if that’s the case IMO

    I guess we will know when we know the expansion draft rules but does Sekera have a full NMC? Otherwise he may be exposed if it is a partial clause.

    Also you’re right they can’t give Demers a NMC. Will have to pay him more to make that moot?

  18. John Chambers says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    I’m thinking the trading of Jones cemented Ellis in NSH until his gorgeous contract runs out.

    Think Vatanen is their guy, maybe they give a guy like Pysyk a look for the bottom of the roster.

    If they give Demers a NMC, then him and Sekera are cemented in for the expansion draft and EDM has to lose one of Klef/Davidson/Whoever else they acquire this summer. Steer clear if that’s the case IMO

    This is why I like overpaying Campbell on a 2-year contract.

    No exp draft risk and contract expires with McD’s ELC.

  19. Centre of attention says:

    Phil Kessel sitting on the bench watching a 3 goal lead evaporate for the second time in recent memory. Must be tough. The money helps I bet haha.

  20. BONVIE says:

    That old man Cullen sure is a valuable role player for the Pens.

  21. LadiesloveSmid says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: I guess we will know when we know the expansion draft rules but does Sekera have a full NMC? Otherwise he may be exposed if it is a partial clause.

    Also you’re right they can’t give Demers a NMC. Will have to pay him more to make that moot?

    Sekera has full NMC in first 4 years, 15 team clause in last two.

    Overpaying Demers is tough with McD’s 2nd contract around the corner. This expansion draft is pretty frustrating, shore up your defence Edmonton then we’ll un-bolster it by taking away your 4th best/non NMC’d D. I fear Davidson could be gone and he is perhaps my favourite oiler.

    I don’t mind John’s idea of overpaying a vet who isn’t looking for a longterm deal like I imagine Demers would. I don’t really know what good options there are outside of Campbell. Liles?

  22. Centre of attention says:

    This must be peak Sportsnet. “Ovechkin reminds me of Ryan Smyth” and a bunch of nodding heads.

  23. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    I see. Thanks. Well, we won’t be the only team with this issue

  24. mit167 says:

    Warning – Completely random topic – Hey Guys, just checking in. For anyone that knows me, I’m an Alberta Boy that grew up in Cold Lake, moved to Edmonton with the Military and then retired after 20 years only to find myself working up in Fort McMurray, until the last week. Luckily we got out unscathed… More or less. My family got pushed north while I was at work, and I stayed at site to make sure all of my guys on shift got evacuated before me. This was about 4 hours after my wife and kids were forced to leave town. As it happened they were close to where I was when I got the last of my guys out. I called them and told them to wait in the parking lot and I would find them. We pitched a tent and waited till 2:30 in the morning before deciding to risk making a run south right through the town for Cold Lake. Long story short, we made it. When we finally got to our cabin in Cold Lake my wife passed me the bag she packed for me. It was a toothbrush, and 2 pairs of clothes. She then pulled out her own bag. Besides her computer and iPad she pulled out 2 pairs of clothes and then her prize possession. Her signed #23 Jersey. She is a huge Hendricks fan, and when pushed came to shove and she was picking thing most valuable, I got a toothbrush and she picked an Oilers Jersey.

  25. square_wheels says:

    mit167,

    Thanks for sharing your Ft Mc story, which site do you work at ?

  26. Oilspill says:

    Agree with the C for 2 years.. heart and soul not prima donna who are chicken in the corners.

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Captain of the US national team 2 years in a row now.

    I don’t need a roster full of these players, but I’m happy to have one.

    He’s the team Dad, which to me is a requirement if you are going to put a lot of pressure on kids to carry the day.Boyd Gordon was the same, but at this stage of their careers I’d rather have Hendricks.

    Frankly I’d put the C on him next year.Connor transitions into the role in his third year.

  27. frjohnk says:

    mit167:
    Warning – Completely random topic – Hey Guys, just checking in.For anyone that knows me, I’m an Alberta Boy that grew up in Cold Lake, moved to Edmonton with the Military and then retired after 20 years only to find myself working up in Fort McMurray, until the last week.Luckily we got out unscathed… More or less.My family got pushed north while I was at work, and I stayed at site to make sure all of my guys on shift got evacuated before me.This was about 4 hours after my wife and kids were forced to leave town.As it happened they were close to where I was when I got the last of my guys out.I called them and told them to wait in the parking lot and I would find them.We pitched a tent and waited till 2:30 in the morning before deciding to risk making a run south right through the town for Cold Lake.Long story short, we made it.When we finally got to our cabin in Cold Lake my wife passed me the bag she packed for me.It was a toothbrush, and 2 pairs of clothes.She then pulled out her own bag.Besides her computer and iPad she pulled out 2 pairs of clothes and then her prize possession.Her signed #23 Jersey.She is a huge Hendricks fan, and when pushed came to shove and she was picking thing most valuable, I got a toothbrush and she picked an Oilers Jersey.

    She is a keeper.

  28. mit167 says:

    I’m with Suncor

  29. Oilspill says:

    Kessel plays chicken shit hockey. Skate like hell but not in the greasy areas. Like many of our guys.

    Centre of attention:
    Phil Kessel sitting on the bench watching a 3 goal lead evaporate for the second time in recent memory. Must be tough. The money helps I bet haha.

  30. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Oilspill:
    Kessel plays chicken shit hockey. Skate like hell but not in the greasy areas. Like many of our guys.

    And he scored 2 goals and assisted on the game winner in a crucial playoff game.

  31. Centre of attention says:

    Oilspill:
    Kessel plays chicken shit hockey. Skate like hell but not in the greasy areas. Like many of our guys.

    To be honest, he’s been a great offensive player his entire career. That’s what he does. He also set up the game winning goal to eliminate the Capitals.

    I think he’s a fine player and you don’t put up the numbers he does without putting in effort.

    *edit* I swear new york your in my head haha

  32. frjohnk says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: And he scored 2 goals and assisted on the game winner in a crucial playoff game.

    If he wasnt chicken, he would have scored the game winner, instead of hiding behind the net 🙂

  33. monsterbater says:

    Serious question: as a whole is the Penguins defense better than what the oilers ran this year?

    Please ignore the fact that they don’t actual play Schultz in your evaluation!

  34. Centre of attention says:

    frjohnk: If he wasnt chicken, he would have scored the game winner, instead of hiding behind the net

    Just like Gretzky, hiding behind the cage like a scared child. Setting up playoff game winners like a big ol’ softy am I right?

    lol.

  35. Centre of attention says:

    monsterbater:
    Serious question: as a whole is the Penguins defense better than what the oilers ran this year?

    Please ignore the fact that they don’t actual play Schultz in your evaluation!

    They have Letang and Maatta. Their D is better. I would say their overall “team defense” is better as well, Crosby is a fantastic two way player. Rust, Khunackle all made a difference too.

  36. G Money says:

    I’m no Kessel fan, but … the idea that Kessel is ‘chicken shit’ and doesn’t play greasy hockey must be reconciled with the rather mystifying fact that he has 18 goals and 15 assists in 33 playoff games.

    That’s 1.0 ppg for the arithmetically challenged, an elite level for regular scoring, let alone the playoffs.

    Damn, imagine how good he’d be if he wasn’t chicken shit and didn’t play greasy hockey?

    Orrrrrrrrr … maybe people who spew that mindless narrative don’t have the slightest idea what they’re talking about.

    Just maybe.

  37. Lowetide says:

    mit167:
    Warning – Completely random topic – Hey Guys, just checking in.For anyone that knows me, I’m an Alberta Boy that grew up in Cold Lake, moved to Edmonton with the Military and then retired after 20 years only to find myself working up in Fort McMurray, until the last week.Luckily we got out unscathed… More or less.My family got pushed north while I was at work, and I stayed at site to make sure all of my guys on shift got evacuated before me.This was about 4 hours after my wife and kids were forced to leave town.As it happened they were close to where I was when I got the last of my guys out.I called them and told them to wait in the parking lot and I would find them.We pitched a tent and waited till 2:30 in the morning before deciding to risk making a run south right through the town for Cold Lake.Long story short, we made it.When we finally got to our cabin in Cold Lake my wife passed me the bag she packed for me.It was a toothbrush, and 2 pairs of clothes.She then pulled out her own bag.Besides her computer and iPad she pulled out 2 pairs of clothes and then her prize possession.Her signed #23 Jersey.She is a huge Hendricks fan, and when pushed came to shove and she was picking thing most valuable, I got a toothbrush and she picked an Oilers Jersey.

    Awesome, awesome story.

  38. frjohnk says:

    G Money: Damn, imagine how good he’d be if he wasn’t chicken shit and didn’t play greasy hockey?

    Pretty sure I saw Kessel eating a hot dog and French fries during those 3 delay of game penalties. Id consider that greasy hockey.

  39. G Money says:

    frjohnk,

    Exactly.

    Kessel doesn’t need to go to the greasy areas of the ice.

    Because he causes the greasy areas on the ice.

  40. Lowetide says:

    Kessel is a great hockey player. Full stop.

  41. frjohnk says:

    G Money:
    frjohnk,

    Exactly.

    Kessel doesn’t need to go to the greasy areas of the ice.

    Because he causes the greasy areas on the ice.

    Ha ha. Yup.

    On another note, I know at the end of his time here I was not fond of him, but if Justin Schultz gets his name on the cup, I’ll be happy for him.

  42. hags9k says:

    Is Hagelin a piss-cutter? If not he’ll have to do until they get here.

  43. JimmyV1965 says:

    monsterbater:
    Serious question: as a whole is the Penguins defense better than what the oilers ran this year?

    Please ignore the fact that they don’t actual play Schultz in your evaluation!

    I’ve asked myself that same question a thousand times. How he hell do they win with that awful defence? Ian Cole out there for 5 on 3 penalty kill with playoffs on the line. Wow!! Can you really win in this league with one superstar dman and a bunch of space fillers?

  44. spoiler says:

    Really really late to this party, but my work level jumped with the Fort Mac tragedy (nothing exciting or proximate though).

    G Money:
    Mr DeBakey,

    Ha ha, you my friend, are partially correct.Overall, looking across all players, if the regression is valid, about half should overperform, and half should underperform.

    However, the regression provides a line rather than a simple average, and so at any given point (or rather, reasonably small segment) on that line, there can be some systematic variation that means that there will be a bias that pushes that little group towards over or underperformance.

    [The NHLe provided as a number is just a simplified version of the line that drops the intercept. I hope the recent version from Roatis, which I haven’t looked at yet, uses the line rather than just the number … but I’m not holding my breath]

    For example!The reason I did my own NHLe for elite players last year is that I believe that the typical high-NHLe players at the extreme right end of the line tend to outperform the line overall.

    Or to put it another way, I think the actual relationship between pre and post NHL performance is not a straight line, its actually curved a bit at both ends, what they call an inverse s curve, or inverse sigmoid function.(In other words, just as I expect the stars to outperform the line, I expect the coke machines at the far left to systematically underperform the line).

    And sure enough, when I ran my own regression using only top drafted players, I got a significantly higher NHLe than did the full sample regressions.(Of course, mine had wider error bars due to the smaller sample size.No free lunch)

    Isn’t it possible to gather a distribution of actual outcomes, given the predicted outcomes, to see how tight or loose NHLe is? That would be handy knowledge, no? I would love to know the standard deviation on an NHLe.

    You mentioned back-testing, which is kind of what I’m saying above… another of my complaints was that NHLe (back in the day, haven’t checked out the newfangled one) wasn’t updated every year.

    I’m thinking too that washouts don’t enter the data so how do you account for that or should you or should it just be a disclaimer… NHLe assuming NHL is achieved?

    edit: or say a 30 percent chance of making the bigs with an NHLe of 42… and a first sigma of 8 points.

  45. GCW_69 says:

    If the Oilers ended up with a right side of Demers – Severson – Pysyk – Fayne with the pecking order based on how reach was playing, that would be a passable defence with moderate acquisition cost.

  46. frjohnk says:

    “There is still plenty of hockey to be played and the Penguins will have their hands full with the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Eastern Conference Final, but if Kessel keeps up his strong output and the Pens advance or ultimately win the Stanley Cup, the thought of Phil the Thrill accepting the Conn Smythe Trophy isn’t that crazy.”

    http://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/nhl/four-things-we-learned-in-the-nhl-kessel-for-conn-smythe/ar-BBsTXb3?ocid=spartanntp

  47. GCW_69 says:

    Had some fun bouncing around roster moves with Alan Hull yesterday.

    Building off some of his moves, here is my roster.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/103654

    Spent zero time on the fourth line, so that could be improved. If you could sign Helm as well as acquire Shaw, maybe you put Strome where I have Stempniak.

    Not sure Carolina moves Faulk for Nuge, but I would do the trade if they were willing. I would move Leon for Faulk if need be.

    I think those moves allow you to retain nurse and this year’s fourth overall pick.

  48. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Is the Penguins defense better than ours?

    Justin Schultz is their #8 Dman.

    Was he our #8 Dman?

  49. russ99 says:

    The pens don’t have a great defense, but the have 2 top-pairing guys who can do a lot of the heavy lifting.

    Also all the forwards play as a team in all three zones.

    The same could be said for the Hawks cup teams.

    We’re a bit short on both counts.

  50. russ99 says:

    GCW_69:
    Had some fun bouncing around roster moves with Alan Hull yesterday.

    Building off some of his moves, here is my roster.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/103654

    Spent zero time on the fourth line, so that could be improved. If you could sign Helm as well as acquire Shaw, maybe you put Strome where I have Stempniak.

    Not sure Carolina moves Faulk for Nuge, but I would do the trade if they were willing.I would move Leon for Faulk if need be.

    I think those moves allow you to retain nurse and this year’s fourth overall pick.

    That’s a good take, I’d be happy with that kind of offseason.

    The only change I see is that we should be able to move Pouliot for something decent and move Maroon to the first line, since he’s a much better top-6 option in McLellan’s systems than Pouliot.

    Also Lander is gone, not a fit with this system or coaches.

    I’d like to see a better possession/cycle group on the 4th line with real defensive acumen, like we had with Gordon to take some of the harder sorties off the third line.

    But agreed, lots more to focus on than the 4th line right now.

  51. Water Fire says:

    GCW_69: GC

    A couple of thoughts on your roster:
    -why is Strome worth a first? If he is why isn’t 1OV Yak?

    -the top 3 centres are rookies

    -I looked at the Hurricanes’ roster and I’m not sure they need a young centre of dubious repute as Nuge would be to the league in general. Stall is their #1 now.

    -Stempniak gets mentioned a lot, I question why nobody keeps him? Really, he’s productive and gets bounced constantly. Sideburns? Secondly, he’s small, and Connor deserves wingers that will do the grunt work as well as keep up with him. I see red when Connor is battling on the boards and guys like Eberle are in front of the net waiving their sticks in the air Gagner style. Connor first, everyone else second.

  52. who says:

    GCW_69:
    Had some fun bouncing around roster moves with Alan Hull yesterday.

    Building off some of his moves, here is my roster.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/103654

    Spent zero time on the fourth line, so that could be improved. If you could sign Helm as well as acquire Shaw, maybe you put Strome where I have Stempniak.

    Not sure Carolina moves Faulk for Nuge, but I would do the trade if they were willing.I would move Leon for Faulk if need be.

    I think those moves allow you to retain nurse and this year’s fourth overall pick.

    Well you will have a busy summer. 4 UFA signings and 4 trades. I doubt chia is that busy. I would be happy with trading Davidson plus for trouba and maybe yak for severson. Don’t like the idea of trading nuge or any first rounder at this point but I am open to the idea of trading our 4 and 32 to Arizona for their 7 and 20. If we still have holes in the top 9 and in net I would fill through free agency but would be very careful on term

  53. G Money says:

    spoiler: Isn’t it possible to gather a distribution of actual outcomes, given the predicted outcomes, to see how tight or loose NHLe is? That would be handy knowledge, no? I would love to know the standard deviation on an NHLe.

    That data distribution is inherent to the process.

    I would hope that every person building an NHLe as part of their assessment has graphed the relationship between the dependent and independent variables first, and then also graphed the residuals once the regression is calculated. Both fundamental to understanding whether the regression is valid.

    The data will form a ‘cloud’ that is vaguely linear, and the regression will be the line (by definition) that minimizes the error with all the points in the cloud. The standard error is the standard deviation you’re looking for, as it summarizes the size of the error from any given data point to its corresponding predicted value on the regression line.

    Algebra refresher: the equation of a line looks like this y = mx + b. The NHLe version is this: predictedNHLpoints = preNHLpoints x NHLeConversionFactor + 0. The ‘b’, the intercept, isn’t likely to ever actually be zero! Treating it as zero means it has been dropped, one assumes because the size of the prediction error swamps the contribution of the intercept.

    For most people, just using this NHLeConversionFactor is good enough.

    For people like me and Spoils and a bunch of you out there, WE WANT THE REAL GOODS! We we want the conversion factor i.e. the slope of course, but we also want the intercept, plus the standard error and the p value so we can have an idea of what the logical goodness of prediction is going to be.

    Looping back around to the original topic, this is one of the reasons why you take NHLe with a grain of salt, and treat any adjustments of it after the fact with caution.

  54. Bruce McCurdy says:

    who: Well you will have a busy summer. 4 UFA signings and 4 trades. I doubt chia is that busy. I would be happy with trading Davidson plus for trouba and maybe yak for severson. Don’t like the idea of trading nuge or any first rounder at this point but I am open to the idea of trading our 4 and 32 to Arizona for their 7 and 20. If we still have holes in the top 9 and in net I would fill through free agency but would be very careful on term

    Davidson had as good a year as Trouba and will cost $3 to $4 MM less, but let’s get rid of his value contact ++ because … ?

    The Oilers face the same salary cap as other teams, some of these phantom trades should at least try to account for that.

  55. who says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Davidson had as good a year as Trouba and will cost $3 to $4 MM less, but let’s get rid of his value contact ++ because … ?

    The Oilers face the same salary cap as other teams, some of these phantom trades should at least try to account for that.

    Haven’t researched this but I believe Trouba will be under team control for more years than Davidson. Davidson will be cheap for the next two years but if he continues to play well he will cost as much or more thatn Trouba in two years. Both players future salaries will be based on their play going forward. I believe Trouba has the higher ceiling. if Winnipeg would take Reinhart instead I would be all for it but I doubt they would.

  56. GCW_69 says:

    who: I doubt chia is that busy.

    If he is not close to that busy I will be real disappointed and we shouldn’t expect playoffs next year.

    russ99: That’s a good take, I’d be happy with that kind of offseason.

    The only change I see is that we should be able to move Pouliot for something decent and move Maroon to the first line, since he’s a much better top-6 option in McLellan’s systems than Pouliot.

    Also Lander is gone, not a fit with this system or coaches.

    I’d like to see a better possession/cycle group on the 4th line with real defensive acumen, like we had with Gordon to take some of the harder sorties off the third line.

    But agreed, lots more to focus on than the 4th line right now.

    Thanks for the feedback. I agree the fourth line could be better. I just haven’t looked into it. If the Oilers draft PLD or Tkachuk, I would like to see them keep Pouliot one more year before trading him. I like keeping him for injury insurance. With that line up, if you move maroon up, you could put Pouliot on a third line with Shaw at centre and any one of Strome, Parenteau or Stempniak on the right wing. That roster offers lots of flexibility.

    Water Fire: A couple of thoughts on your roster:
    -why is Strome worth a first? If he is why isn’t 1OV Yak?

    -the top 3 centres are rookies

    -I looked at the Hurricanes’ roster and I’m not sure they need a young centre of dubious repute as Nuge would be to the league in general. Stall is their #1 now.

    -Stempniak gets mentioned a lot, I question why nobody keeps him? Really, he’s productive and gets bounced constantly. Sideburns? Secondly, he’s small, and Connor deserves wingers that will do the grunt work as well as keep up with him. I see red when Connor is battling on the boards and guys like Eberle are in front of the net waiving their sticks in the air Gagner style. Connor first, everyone else second.

    All good questions.

    I don’t know what the Oilers have to offer that would compel Snow to move Strome other than the 2017 first, but I could be wrong. I had a second coming back the other way because there is enough risk on Strome that a first round pick straight up didn’t makes sense to me.

    The top three centres are young, but not rookies. Leon and Strome are both third year NHL pros. And you have Shaw as insurance on Strome. In an ideal world they would sign Helm and put Strome with McDavid instead of Stempniak.

    Stempniak deserves a mention because he is coming off a 51 point season and is probably the only right shot winger at that point production that isn’t going to cost significant dollars and term. You could easily keep Eberle with McDavid and put Stempniak with the slower Draisaitl and be fine. Also, if you sign Parenteau you have insurance. Parenteau is a fairly consistent 40 point winger with strong possession numbers.

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