RE 15-16 DARNELL NURSE: IT COULD HAPPEN TO YOU

There is a wide gap of opinion about Darnell Nurse and his future with the Edmonton Oilers. Some are encouraged by his rookie season, others believe it was an uneven freshman campaign, while others believe there should be real doubt about his ability to play a top 4D role in the NHL—ever. What is the answer? Can we even tell from here? (It Could Happen To You)

DARNELL NURSE 2014-15

  • 5×5 points per 60: nil
  • 5×4 points per 60: nil
  • Qual Comp: 11th toughest among D
  • Qual Team: 10th best available among D
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 56.4%
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: 9.3
  • Zone Start: 78.6%
  • Zone Finish: 55.6%
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 2 shots
  • Boxcars: 2GP, 0-0-0

DARNELL NURSE 2015-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.31 (No. 6 among regular defensemen)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.29 (one point in 14 minutes)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 45.5
  • Qual Comp: No. 5 among regular defensemen (third pairing)
  • Qual Team: No. 3 among regular defensemen (second pairing)
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -11.7
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 120/2.5
  • Boxcars: 69GP, 3-7-10 .145

WAR-ON-ICE PLAYER CHART

WAR ON ICE D SLEDGE

RE 15-16: 50GP, 2-8-10 .200

ACTUAL 15-16: 69GP, 3-7-10 .145

NURSE SPLITS

  1. What a terrible year. He was challenged for sure.
  2. Is there any good news? Not a lot. The graph above shows his first 11 games—he looked good for a rookie.
  3. Should have sent him out after that run. Yes, as it turned out the club went ultimate opposite George—elevated him to the top pairing. Not a good developmental move.
  4. Why did they do it? He was playing well, they had an enormous need (as always) and may have felt they could have him learn on the fly. If you like what you see, and believe the player has the capacity, then a fast track may be the thing to do.
  5. Trial by fire? Yes, I think so.
  6. Didn’t work. True. Nurse did not recover really, although the performances toward the end of the season corrected some. He was over 50 percent Corsi for 5×5 in his final four games, CorsiRel was 2.0 and that is a number I value. Still, that is a very small sample size.
  7. Was there a specific partner he had success with? Nurse was 48.5 Corsi for 5×5 percentage with Eric Gryba, that was in 95 minutes. Brandon Davidson? 50 percent in 45 minutes, he played well with Pardy too.
  8. Third pairing guys? Yes. Nurse struggled with Andrej Sekera (44.1) in 393 minutes; He was 47.2 in 245 minutes with Justin Schultz—both were first or second pairing partners.
  9. Could he play third pair with a veteran like Fayne? I think he could, although Brandon Davidson is a much better 3LHD option at this time.
  10. Do you see Nurse starting the year in Edmonton? Probably. I don’t believe that is the right call, but we have to factor in injuries and that coach McLellan likes what he brings.
  11. His offense was terrible. Nurse as a rookie was 0.31/60 5×5. Jeff Petry was 0.21/60 5×5 in 2010-11. The graph above shows Nurse flourishing early, and then his offense died after those first 11 games.
  12. So, now Nurse is better than Petry? No, but rookie seasons are a snapshot. Nurse’s NHLEs had him around 20 points in junior (final season projected to 82gp, 7-17-24) so 10 points this past season should not represent his outer marker.
  13. His possession number is awful! It was not good. Oilers have had worse (Ladislav Smid in his early seasons was very poor, Taylor Chorney had a 38.4 Corsi for 5×5 percentage in 2009-10, Justin Schultz 42.7 in 2011-12—these are different seasons mind—impossible to compare to each other beyond acknowledging none of them is close to good enough) but Nurse is a former top 10 overall selection and the hope is that he can be a big part of the future.
  14. Where do the Oilers go from here? At points in the year, Edmonton could have pulled him back—third pairing or Bakersfield—and chose not to do it. Ideally, PC sends Nurse to Bakersfield in the early part of the season and when he is recalled it is for third pairing and with a veteran partner. You know, you can go back in the Oilers past and find a lot of rookies grappling with entry into the league without a suitable partner.
  15. Should the Oilers trade him? I don’t think they will.
  16. Should the Oilers trade him? Not sure the question applies.
  17. Should the Oilers trade him? Edmonton has very few areas of strength. One of them is young LHD, a list that includes Oscar Klefbom, Brandon Davidson, Darnell Nurse, Griffin Reinhart and others. I think the first option—along with draft picks—should be players from that list. I am unsure trading Klefbom or Davidson helps the cause, but if a deal can be made using any of those four that improves the team, so be it.
  18. Will he have a career? God, yes. Nurse struggled, and people are worried the pick will be a waste, but at least some of what happened this year is on the organization. If he had been handled better, Nurse’s numbers would not look this way.
  19. What do you mean? On November 23, he was 12gp, 1-2-3 48.6 Corsi for 5×5/60. Had the Oilers sent him down around that time—he had a taste of the NHL—perhaps a later recall would have gone better. NHL teams do this all the time, by the way. Give a rookie some idea about what he is facing, send him down to re-set and get  his bearings. Bring him up later. It is a developmental tool.
  20. They kept him. How did it go? Between November 24 and December 31, he was 18gp, 1-0-1 43.1 Corsi for 5×5 percentage. A lot of that time, he was playing with Sekera.
  21. Again, why? I honestly think they felt Nurse might be able to handle it.
  22. He could not. Yes. But that isn’t on the player, and I do think it is foolish to assume he can’t eventually fulfill that role.
  23. A lot of evidence that a top 10 pick who can’t play at par as a rookie won’t make it as a quality NHL defender. Did these players get moved to the top pairing after 11 games? And is this a strict rule, as in once the die is cast all bets are off? Because that seems to be a grand case of issue framing from here, although I stand to be corrected.
  24. A lot of smart people are saying he is already in trouble as a prospect. For me, the five year rule applies, and there are times when even that isn’t long enough. Let’s see how things look after five years—summer 2018, to be exact. I think the Oilers actions confused the issue with this player—he should be pushing for playing time, and if we were talking about 25 games and the rest in Bakersfield, this would be a different conversation.
  25. He was a top 10 pick! He was welcomed into the Oilers defense and then (after 11 games) asked to play on the top pairing. Before that night, Darnell Nurse looked to be on track.
  26. He is Ladislav Smid and you know it. Or he is Eric Brewer or maybe better. We don’t know, and honestly I think a lot of the bets being made now have more to do with the Edmonton Oilers than Darnell Nurse. Damn shame to put that on the young man. Damn shame.
  27. Why this song? Its about touching things and not leaving them better. I have watched the Oilers do this dozens of times over many years, and each time—incredibly—it is somehow the young player at fault. ‘Same old useless, worn out thinking’ indeed. These kids come to town with piss, vinegar and promise, and are soon directed to the heavy lifting and the work reserved for veterans in winning towns. It could happen to you.

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91 Responses to "RE 15-16 DARNELL NURSE: IT COULD HAPPEN TO YOU"

  1. LadiesloveSmid says:

    On draft day we knew Darnell was raw raw. Should have spent the whole season in Bakersfield. Personnel up top did not cut it, hopefully it doesn’t stunt his development.

  2. Магия 10 says:

    “Edmonton has very few areas of strength. One of them is young LHD, a list that includes Oscar Klefbom, Brandon Davidson, Darnell Nurse, Griffin Reinhart and others. I think the first option—along with draft picks—should be players from that list. I am unsure trading Klefbom or Davidson’ helps the cause, but if a deal can be made using any of those four that improves the team, so be it.”

    The announcement (or non-announcement) of expansion prior to the draft intersects with this in interesting ways. A 2017 expansion draft would increase Nurse’s trade value. It impacts guys that you can’t protect if you bring in immediate good D. It increase the odds that D on that list go out as D come in.

    Darnell will overcome the lousy hand they gave him. He deserves the chance to start in Bakersfield next year. Similar to what Drai got after being overwhelmed.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Магия 10:
    “Edmonton has very few areas of strength. One of them is young LHD, a list that includes Oscar Klefbom, Brandon Davidson, Darnell Nurse, Griffin Reinhart and others. I think the first option—along with draft picks—should be players from that list. I am unsure trading Klefbom or Davidson’ helps the cause, but if a deal can be made using any of those four that improves the team, so be it.”

    The announcement (or non-announcement) of expansion prior to the draft intersects with this in interesting ways. It increase Nurse’s trade value. It impacts guys that you can’t protect if you bring in immediate good D. It increase the odds that D go out as D come in.

    Darnell will overcome the lousy hand they gave him. He deserves the chance to start in Bakersfield next year. Similar to what Drai got after being overwhelmed.

    Its funny. Expansion rolls out the same way every time, in small pieces, fits and starts, delays, and yet it has enormous impact. The NHL is a multi-billion dollar industry run by 30 corner groceries.

  4. Water Fire says:

    I don’t think development of a high level prospect can be stunted, perhaps delayed. If a guy can’t get his confidence back, and use the experience to realize how he is lacking at the level of his ultimate goal, he never had it.

    The five year rule applies to normal players, and perhaps Nurse isn’t elite, and that would be because of not thinking the game well enough and his athleticism not being enough anymore.

    I think he is driven enough to get to an above average level. He certainly doesn’t lack confidence given beating the daylights out of men.

  5. John Chambers says:

    @ Gmoney

    Nurse’s Corsi when playing with Sekara is unfairly docked given that their both LH with Sek forced to play the right side.

    How much it would impact is uncertain bit that particular data set is discouraging.

  6. striatic says:

    What I like most about Nurse is that he gives a damn. Unfortunately for him, that’s not enough to be a quality player. He seems to have the right mindset and physical tools but his production is insufficient to play regularly in the NHL by any statistical measure.

    The Oilers cannot do that Oiler thing and assume Nurse will take a step forward. They cannot assume Oscar Klefbom will be healthy enough to play a full season and shelter Nurse. Putting the need for an elite 1 D aside, there is a certain need for a middle pairing D that will ensure that Nurse will not be required to play top 4 minutes, hopefully not even Top 6.

    If he steps forward next year, please let it be a pleasant surprise and not something the team’s success is contingent on.

  7. striatic says:

    Also, Hall and McDavid seem to be clicking as line mates at the IIHFWC. Different Ice surface and level of competition to be sure, but if they can figure out a way to mesh their playing styles successfully the option of playing the two together next season could add a very dangerous weapon that wasn’t available in the last one.

  8. DBO says:

    As much as I fear moving Nurse, i wonder if he has the most trade value of all our LD. Team control, Nasty, can skate, has some offiense 9in Junior), big bodied. For these reasons I wouldn\t want to move him, but if you offered
    Nurse and the 4th
    for
    Barrie and Colorado’s 1st

    Does this make sense for both teams? Colorado will have a heck of a time signing all their guys and have a lot of new deals this summer with big deals alrady signed the last few years. Hurts us, but if you add barrie and Demers, and you have Davidson and Reinhart as your 3LD, there is no place for Nurse (he won’t or shouldn’t play above Klefbom and Sekera).

    Klefbom-Demers
    Sekera-Barrie
    Davidson-Fayne

    That is a balanced, no superstar, but balanced 6 dmen, with some youth in the wings (Reinhart, Osterlee, etc.) and a vet for #7 (Gryba, etc) that could make the playoffs.

  9. Centre of attention says:

    DBO:
    As much as I fear moving Nurse, i wonder if he has the most trade value of all our LD. Team control, Nasty, can skate, has some offiense 9in Junior), big bodied. For these reasons I wouldn\t want to move him, but if you offered
    Nurse and the 4th
    for
    Barrie and Colorado’s 1st

    Does this make sense for both teams? Colorado will have a heck of a time signing all their guys and have a lot of new deals this summer with big deals alrady signed the last few years. Hurts us, but if you add barrie and Demers, and you have Davidson and Reinhart as your 3LD, there is no place for Nurse (he won’t or shouldn’t play above Klefbom and Sekera).

    Klefbom-Demers
    Sekera-Barrie
    Davidson-Fayne

    That is a balanced, no superstar, but balanced 6 dmen, with some youth in the wings (Reinhart, Osterlee, etc.) and a vet for #7 (Gryba, etc) that could make the playoffs.

    I’ve thought about that exact situation and I would be OK with this type of transaction going down.

    I think that top 6 D could make the playoffs as well.

  10. blainer says:

    This is a wonderful player that was played to high too early.

    He is way too talented not to bounce back .. he needs cover next year with a vet on the bottom pairing if they don’t put him the A.

    The oil are very high on this player and would be very surprised if they trade him. I think it prudent to keep him at least one more to see what we have and I do believe he has top pairing potential.

    It takes lots of patience at this level. Even Hedman took a good few years to get where he is now. The oil will need to be patient with this player or get one helluva return in a trade.

    I mentioned a Trouba for Nurse trade straight up the other day but I didn’t really mean it… I think !!

  11. LadiesloveSmid says:

    blainer,

    I would full well 100% do Nurse for Trouba, and add

  12. Richard S.S. says:

    In the OHL Playoffs just prior to McDavid Draft Nurse was tasked defensively to shut down McDavid.
    McDavid’s PPG might have taken a small tiny hit. McDavid’s Erie Otters didn’t advance, the Nurse’s Oshawa Generals did.
    The important bits: Nurse is really, really good and can skate exceptionally well. Nurse has speed, skill and size and the potential to be a Game-Changer. It boggles the mind to think anyone want to trade him.

  13. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Richard S.S.,

    Nurse was on Sault Ste Marie that lost to Connor’s Otters

  14. hunter1909 says:

    Re Nurse:

    I can’t wait until they trade him.

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  15. hunter1909 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    On draft day we knew Darnell was raw raw. Should have spent the whole season in Bakersfield. Personnel up top did not cut it, hopefully it doesn’t stunt his development.

    Now much of the Oilers fanbase thinks Nurse has to go, since he’s not developing fast enough. They want to dump him asap before his value drops further.

    Магия 10: He deserves the chance to start in Bakersfield next year.

    Sure, but once he’s traded he’s not going there is he?

    Lowetide: The NHL is a multi-billion dollar industry run by 30 corner groceries.

    Nurse seriously needs to be traded.

  16. Centre of attention says:

    Schultz in for Maatta. Gord help the Pens, as the lightning get Stralman back tonight.

  17. godot10 says:

    DBO:
    As much as I fear moving Nurse, i wonder if he has the most trade value of all our LD. Team control, Nasty, can skate, has some offiense 9in Junior), big bodied. For these reasons I wouldn\t want to move him, but if you offered
    Nurse and the 4th
    for
    Barrie and Colorado’s 1st

    Does this make sense for both teams?

    No way in effing hell am I swapping picks in that deal, particularly since #10 is too far down.

    And no way that I make that trade, Nurse for Barrie. If I want Barrie, I will use an offer sheet, which solves the contract negotiation problem.

    Once the agent has agreed to terms, I ask the agent for 24 hours to try to negotiate a trade before filing the offer sheet.

    Same strategy for Trouba. And I would prioritize Trouba over Barrie based on range of skills.

    Colorado or Winnipeg would then be facing compensation in future draft picks rather than anything in the present which forces the price to acquire in a trade down.

  18. godot10 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Richard S.S.,

    Nurse was on Sault Ste Marie that lost to Connor’s Otters

    Because Sault Ste. Marie (not Nurse) took stupid penalties. A lot of the rest of the team, not Nurse, was undisciplined.

  19. hunter1909 says:

    Water Fire: If a guy can’t get his confidence back, and use the experience to realize how he is lacking at the level of his ultimate goal, he never had it.

    Sounds like Nurse. Trade him fast!

    John Chambers: that particular data set is discouraging.

    Stats back up the need to trade Darnell Nurse.

    striatic: Unfortunately for him, that’s not enough to be a quality player.

    Excellent position. Trading Nurse solves everything.

    striatic: Hall and McDavid seem to be clicking as line mates at the IIHFWC.

    Trading Nurse guarantees another slot for a Karlsson.

    DBO: Nurse and the 4th
    for
    Barrie and Colorado’s 1st

    Although I have no fucking idea what the value is here, however the fact you’ve managed to trade Nurse and the 4th overall pick makes you the current thread leader.

  20. Centre of attention says:

    hunter1909,

    Let it be know, I only advocate a Nurse trade if it actually makes the team better. Its less about losing patience and more about evaluating all options at the Oilers disposal. I would not consider Nurse an ‘untouchable’ so no harm in exploring hypothetical trade scenarios.

    I think the Oilers like Nurse, for what its worth. If I was a betting man, I think he stays.

  21. hunter1909 says:

    Centre of attention: I would be OK with this type of transaction going down.

    Another member of the community has spoken.

    blainer: This is a wonderful player that was played to high too early.

    Don’t worry. He’s already as good as out of town.

    LadiesloveSmid:
    blainer,

    I would full well 100% do Nurse for Trouba, and add

    Eberle/RNH would help move the team forward cap wise, while simultaneously showing the Hall clique that they’re no longer in charge.

    Richard S.S.: McDavid’s PPG might have taken a small tiny hit. McDavid’s Erie Otters didn’t advance, the Nurse’s Oshawa Generals did.

    What does this have to do with anything? McDavid’s nearly traded around here.

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Richard S.S.,

    Nurse was on Sault Ste Marie that lost to Connor’s Otters

    Oilers prefer memorial Cup winners and 1st overall picks. Nurse simply doesn’t make the cut here. He’s got to go.

  22. Kraz says:

    So how does Demers compare to Stralman? Could the Oilers get similar results from Demers that Tampa has gotten from Stralman? If so signing Demers is a no-brainer

  23. MrEd says:

    Man LT. It’s almost like you consider the player as a citizen of developmental hockey rather than a “piece” as they like to say these days as a member of the professional ranks. Eureka.

  24. dustrock says:

    I think it’s fair to say we were disappointed in Nurse this year, even if there are explanations.

    LT – thoughts on Pivani Smith (Guelph) and RHD Adam Fox (USNDTP)?

  25. leadfarmer says:

    I remember getting into multiple discussions on here about despite looking like he is ready in training camp and the first few games he should be sent down, because this would happen. If he was left in the AHL all year everyone would be excited for his future, and couldn’t wait to slot him into the lineup next year. He is exactly where he should be. Its a big jump for dman from junior to the NHL.

  26. JimmyV1965 says:

    Development is a funny thing. I think you can argue that guys like Trouba and Myers had their best seasons as rookies. Since then they have probably regressed. I don’t think Nurse is really a cerebral player and for that reason it might take him longer to figure it out. The tools are there though and I think that bodes well. If we trade an LD I would rather move Klef. His value is high and I really worry about injuries, aside from the freaky infection.

  27. LadiesloveSmid says:

    hunter1909: Now much of the Oilers fanbase thinks Nurse has to go, since he’s not developing fast enough. They want to dump him asap before his value drops further.

    It’s a position of strength, if he could bring in a Trouba I’d be all for it. No slight to Darnell

  28. John Chambers says:

    Kraz:
    So how does Demers compare to Stralman? Could the Oilers get similar results from Demers that Tampa has gotten from Stralman? If so signing Demers is a no-brainer

    There is a marked difference in quality where Strahlman puts up positive possession numbers against the other team’s top line playing 23-24 minutes a night, while Demers fairs well against second line comp and can be counted on 20-22 minutes.

    Demers would be a great add, don’t get me wrong, but Strahlman is the ~40-50th best defenseman in the world while Demers is ~80-100 … still very good but not as good as Sekara or Petry.

  29. stush18 says:

    Lookout, hunters figured out how to reply to multiple comments at once! There will be no stopping his sarcasm now! Lol

    I said day one I wanted ristolainen. Even if you considered the players even (I would say most thought so), it was a RH dman versus a left. Still I think he could turn into a shut down dman.

    I would say the hate (if any) is people were expecting pronger when really we were getting Marc staal

  30. LadiesloveSmid says:

    stush18,

    I wanted Nichushkin and then Ristolainen. Nurse grew on me and I don’t resent the pick. In hindsight I’m glad they didn’t take my first choice.

    At the time they had *elite* Schultz and Petry on the right side, Klefbom coming up on the left side. Made sense. He’s got time, could be Gator

  31. Water Fire says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    blainer,

    I would full well 100% do Nurse for Trouba, and add

    The fact we know Trouba had any kind of ‘demands’ and has shown nothing special to warrant them is a clear warning sign regarding his attitude.

    ‘If’ he was special his circumstances couldn’t have held him back relative to his lower role.

    This applies to all Oiler players as well. I’m thinking Yak. You play third pairing and don’t rip them a new one, you can hog the puck at will like you did in junior because of and despite playing with plugs, and you still can’t score, well?

    At some point the player has to get it done despite the odds.

  32. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    I remember getting into multiple discussions on here about despite looking like he is ready in training camp and the first few games he should be sent down, because this would happen.If he was left in the AHL all year everyone would be excited for his future, and couldn’t wait to slot him into the lineup next year.He is exactly where he should be.Its a big jump for dman from junior to the NHL.

    I knew he would either make the team or spend little time in the AHL. the roster was so, so bad.

  33. JimmyV1965 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    stush18,

    I wanted Nichushkin and then Ristolainen. Nurse grew on me and I don’t resent the pick. In hindsight I’m glad they didn’t take my first choice.

    At the time they had *elite* Schultz and Petry on the right side, Klefbom coming up on the left side. Made sense. He’s got time, could be Gator

    We could probably still get Nichushkin. Straight across for Yak.

  34. stush18 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    stush18,

    I wanted Nichushkin and then Ristolainen. Nurse grew on me and I don’t resent the pick. In hindsight I’m glad they didn’t take my first choice.

    At the time they had *elite* Schultz and Petry on the right side, Klefbom coming up on the left side. Made sense. He’s got time, could be Gator

    That’s true. I never wanted nichuskin(sp). We had nothing in defensive prospects really.

  35. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Water Fire,

    Trouba’s results haven’t been bad. Good numbers for a guy his age, just saddled with Mark Stuart

  36. G Money says:

    John Chambers:
    @ Gmoney

    Nurse’s Corsi when playing with Sekara is unfairly docked given that their both LH with Sek forced to play the right side.

    How much it would impact is uncertain bit that particular data set is discouraging.

    I agree. One of the ways in which you can put an asterisk by Nurse’s performance this year is not only to point out (as LT does) that he got stuck with first pairing duty which isn’t exactly fair, but also that he got stuck doing that where either he or his partner were on their offside, which its reasonable to expect is going to make their numbers look substantially worse.

    That said, at draft+3, Nurse is far enough along that he ought to be able to play spot duty on the top pairing and not get killed.

    It’s not a fait accompli, but as I’ve said a few other places, most top pairing D are able to hold their own in spot duty on the top pairing by draft+3. (for example, Hamonic)

    That Nurse looks quite badly out of place suggests that he may not be top pairing material.

    May.

    His book is not yet written, but no sense in ignoring where it is the modest bit of evidence we do have points either.

  37. stush18 says:

    G Money,

    Everyone G$ is trying to trade nurse! You heard it here first! He’s giving him the ole lowetide smid ride!

  38. hunter1909 says:

    dustrock: I think it’s fair to say we were disappointed in Nurse this year, even if there are explanations.

    It’s best to trade him asap.

  39. hunter1909 says:

    The best thing about losing Nurse is this: It took another Year from out of the thin/thick skinned Oilers fans. What better way to show them contempt than to trade away potential killer defensemen?

    Tossing Nurse away feels good. It’s almost as good as sending Souray to Hershey.

  40. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s GM school:

    lesson 1:

    When Yakupov asks for a trade, agree then don’t trade him until 30 games into next season. That way there’s almost certainly no going back for all parties concerned, lol.

    Suppose Yaks turns up pissed and focussed? he can conceivably force his way up the batting order.

    But no, the Kevin Lowe Oilers shall continue to be played like Dummies: Yaks gets shipped away for pennies to the pound.

    I hope he ends up in Calgary.

  41. Магия 10 says:

    hunter1909: It’s best to trade him asap.

    For Hunter we’ll arrange a 4 way trade where we trade Nurse away twice just to be sure he’s gone.

  42. Lowetide says:

    It is absolutely possible to trade Nurse for full value and have it be a good move for now and the future.

  43. hunter1909 says:

    Магия 10: For Hunter we’ll arrange a 4 way trade where we trade Nurse away twice just to be sure he’s gone.

    lol

    Lowetide:
    It is absolutely possible to trade Nurse for full value and have it be a good move for now and the future.

    Between my alcohol fueled rage and the computer, Nurse is an untouchable, like Yak(this summer).

    I understand the panic to achieve something next season but really guys, Nurse can provide entertainment in ways that don’t get Gary Bettmeasured.

  44. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT! So realistically, Nurse doesn’t “deserve” based on his play, to be starting next year.

    – Better than Nurse: Klef, Sekera, Davidson, Fayne. Same as Nurse: Griff. Klef and Davidson aren’t lock and load, plug and play, set it and forget it or whatever cliche you want. And Fayne meh

    – We need a boat-load of bona-fide D’s…if Nurse starts next year in the NHL, that means you are pairing him with Davidson, or Davidson is playing higher up: neither scenario is good.

    – The cheapest way to block Nurse without trading him is accepting Sek-Fayne as a pair, finding someone great for Klef and praying, and finding someone solid for Davidson for 3rd pairing.

    – That’s a lot different approach than “get two RHD’s @ 5x6mm or die”

    – If the OIL can get the 2 D I describe this off-season, they can get the 3rd D at deadline. Suspect it will be easier to get that 3rd D (Brent Burns, UFA, for instance) at the deadline.

  45. godot10 says:

    2016 Calder Cup Playoffs Lake Erie Monsters 9 4 6 10 6 20 2 0 0 0 0.000

    Zack Werenski’s boxcars in the playoffs…over a PPG. Just scored in overtime to knock Nelson’s GR team out of the Western semifinals in game 6.

    Columbus’ top 4 of the near future.

    Murray, Jones
    Werenski, Savard.

  46. russ99 says:

    We trade away Nurse at our peril.

    You guys are looking too close at the fancies in those rose-colored all puck-mover glasses to see what we have here, and that’s a kid who has physical gifts that few players at his age do and a will to win to go with it.

    Plus his offensive instincts are rare – he can make space and create in the O-zone and all our other D are about entry and stop at the point.

    The Oilers stupidly gave him sorties well above his level and when he predictably sank, they kept throwing him in there. Thought Eakins was gone, lol.

    But for a 21 year old kid 2 pro years into his 4-5 year defenseman development curve, he shows a lot of solid skills, but just can’t keep up on D at the NHL level.

    I still have minimal doubt he’ll reach the top pairing defenseman he’s been forecast to be, and it’s pretty obvious that Oilers fans are now infamous for lack of patience with defensemen.

    We move him, and that will be our Thrashers/Kovalchuk trade, mark my words.

  47. Stelio Kontos says:

    Nurse lacks vision/hockey sense at this level. He has all the physical tools, but his mind isn’t moving fast enough. I would prefer he gets a bunch of AHL time next year to work on his offensive play in particular. He is very aggressive offensively without really being a threat. He needs to learn to be more patient, and take the blinders off. He will be a very good defensemen very soon imo.

  48. frjohnk says:

    Listening to Stauffer talk about how oilers management view Nurse, I find it hard to believe Nurse would even be in a discussion for a trade.

    I see Nurse making major strides this summer and with hopeful addition of a top 4 Dman, (2), a healthy Klefbom and Davidson, Nurse will be a significant contributer to a better Dcore.

  49. Johnny skid says:

    hunter1909:
    I hope he ends up in Calgary.

    i had that very thought the other day. yak playing for the flames!

  50. G Money says:

    stush18:
    G Money,

    Everyone G$ is trying to trade nurse! You heard it here first! He’s giving him the ole lowetide smid ride!

    Heh heh. And McDavid.

    Overhyped bums the both of them.

    Plus that Hall guy. Overrated! Poison!

  51. Edmonton_fan says:

    Darnell is our deterrent – McDavid & other skilled players have protection that scares the opposition!

    Nurse is fast & fairly good defensively – not bad for a 21 year old.

    He is untouchable in my books.

  52. rickithebear says:

    Few areas of strength?
    Centers:
    Mcdavid 2.75 evp/60 #1 fwd
    Draisatl 2.19 evp/60 #21 fwd
    RNH 14-15 one of 2 top 3 pvp centers in evg and evp. The other toews.
    LW:
    Hall top 5 wc pvp forwards evp 3 of 4 years
    Pouliot top 45 evp/60 fwd
    Maroon 3.07 evp/60 w/ mcdavid.

    The one area of need is mature d who have proven they can cover a level of comp, even offence, even defence, pk defence.
    I want d who matured and have spent their 24 to 26/27 yr proving their nhl worth.

    Davidson is in his 1st full season at 24.

    Klefbom is arare young d.
    Who is showing a full coverage of even and pk skill set not seen since norris lidstrom.

    The last thing i want is highly flawed d.
    GA matters more in a cap world than GF.

    Trading for young d with no physical ability to defend is horiffic.

    Nurse is a young horse that needs to learn to hang around the barn door before struting out into the feild.

  53. kinger_OIL says:

    frjohnk,

    – So if we add 2 top-4 D, get rid of Fayne, your 3rd pairing is going to be Davidson/Nurse:

    – That’s just hoping:
    1) 2 LH’s on bottom pair
    2) Davidson was good for about 30 games
    3) Total they have less than 140 games experience
    4) they are 21 and 24 years old
    5) you are a Klef not recovering/Klef struggling away from promoting Davy or Nurse to top-4 duties.

    – yuck, no thanks.

    * and holy sh%t: Ricki and I are on same page, as per his post just above!

  54. rickithebear says:

    Lowetide:
    It is absolutely possible to trade Nurse for full value and have it be a good move for now and the future.

    We are losing nurse in the 2018 expansion draft

  55. thehop says:

    I guess the “wait five years” rule does not apply to Nurse……

    Anyone contemplating trading this guy at this point graduated from the University of Stupid. Dean Kevin Lowe, Professor Mactavish and the old boys club say hi.

    Unreal

  56. Woodguy says:

    John Chambers: There is a marked difference in quality where Strahlman puts up positive possession numbers against the other team’s top line playing 23-24 minutes a night, while Demers fairs well against second line comp and can be counted on 20-22 minutes.

    Demers would be a great add, don’t get me wrong, but Strahlman is the ~40-50th best defenseman in the world while Demers is ~80-100 … still very good but not as good as Sekara or Petry.

    When Stralman was identified as being an above average player, he was playing 2nd pair with Staal in NYR. McDonough and Girardi were 1st pair.

    Tyler still had his blog and had created a data base that separated all NHL players into 4 buckets, which ostensibly were 4 levels of competition.

    He showed that Stralman had as good, if not better, results as McDonaugh vs top comp.

    That’s when the Stralman talk started.

    Now he plays with probably the best Dman in the NHL in Hedman and that pair is a killer.

    Also,

    2nd pair and 1st pair Dmen see different comp, but its not *that* much different. The bigger drop is from 2nd pair to 3rd pair.

    When I had a look at Demers here: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/04/oiler-right-shot-dman-search-1-jason.html , I tried to suss out how he did vs various comp by using different forwards as proxy for the type of comp they would see.

    I think it works ok, but its not Tyler’s data base. Gmoney is working on something for us in that regard.

    Anyhow, Demers has very good results in what I would consider top comp and he did it playing with Oduya, who looks almost to be done (Nill went out and got Russell to play with Demers for the playoffs and Oduya went to the third pair)

    Its not as robust as Tyler’s stuff, but I think Demers would be a good bet to handle 1st pairing comp.

    He’s been a Dman in the Western Conference for his whole career, so its not like he’d see anything new here and having Klef as a partner (whom I rate very highly) would help as well.

  57. leadfarmer says:

    This team has been trying to get Dion Phaneuf for so many years. Now that they have a cheaper and more tolerable version of him I really doubt they trade him. I know that most will hate that comparison but hes aggressive physically, is a good physical specimen, and a little short on the hockey sense. Just don’t pay him like a top pairing defensemen and we will be happy with him for years to come

  58. G Money says:

    Wow, so many people declaring with such certainty that Nurse will for sure be a top rank defenseman.

    Why? Because “physical tools”. “Intimidation”. “Skating”.

    That’s it?

    Newsflash: most high drafted defensemen who went on to become top pair D were already capable NHL defensemen at the age of 21.

    And most of them DIDN’T have the same level of advantage of physical tools that Nurse has.

    For Pete’s sake, that Nurse struggled as much as he did even with the benefit of those massive physical advantages is a bad thing, not a good thing.

    Mostly because those physical tools don’t matter that much without the gray matter functioning in synch.

    The only way Nurse becomes a top pair defenseman at this point is if he starts processing the game mentally like a top pair defenseman.

    Now of course, if that happens, combine that with those physical capabilities and we’ll have a monster defenseman on our hands! Woot!

    Except there is NO guarantee, NONE, that he will develop the ability to process the game anything close to that.

    And contrary to all those posting in here declaring without a doubt that he’ll succeed as a top pair, there is NO WAY for anyone, not his coach, not his parents, not him, to tell at this point whether he will develop that level of processing or not.

    But the evidence from all those other players suggests that IF he’s going to do so, he’s already behind the curve.

    This past year was NOT a reason for optimism for either Nurse or Griffin Reinhart. It wasn’t. The odds are getting longer, not shorter.

    That isn’t to say either Nurse (or Reinhart) won’t have long NHL careers. I think they both will. They’ve both shown enough to suggest they’ll eventually make it and stay.

    Neither is on track to be a top pair D though. Both will have to beat the odds to make it there.

    Those are the harsh facts. Wishing it was not so does not make it not so.

  59. LadiesloveSmid says:

    leadfarmer,

    Dion scored 20 in his rookie season. I don’t know that I like that comparison.

  60. slopitch says:

    The same organization that rushed the young dman would be the same team that traded him at age 21.

    Too many raw tools. Let the game slow down for him in a year or two. And let him learn in a development league.

    I don’t trade him unless it’s for the top pairing RHD.

  61. kinger_OIL says:

    G Money,

    “that Nurse struggled as much as he did even with the benefit of those massive physical advantages is a bad thing, not a good thing.”

    Props

  62. G Money says:

    There’s a lot of people this evening being retweeted in my Twitter timeline that for some reason really want to have sex with Jim Corsi.

  63. dessert1111 says:

    I have no idea how many NHL level trades Chia will make this year, but I think bringing in at least 1 NHL defenseman via trade is a good bet.

    I am happy with the NHL forwards, more or less, with some adjusting around the edges.

    The need, by far, is a right handed D.

    I don’t see a forward position that has the depth to trade the player it’s gonna take to get that D. So if you trade a forward, you need to sign another one or make another trade. It has to be a good one.

    For assets that wouldn’t need to be immediately replaced, there is the #4OV and left handed D. I wouldn’t trade Davidson, Klefbom or Sekera barring an overpay. That leaves Nurse and maybe Reinhart with value to form the core of a trade.

    Perhaps Yakupov could be part of a package. But I think at least one, quite possibly two, of those assets need to be cashed for a top 4 right handed D this summer.

    It’s just a matter of what deals are available for how it plays out exactly, but I think that’s the gist of how this will play out.

  64. who says:

    You can put me in the pro Nurse column. Hopefully he starts next year in the minors or on the third pairing. Trading away a 21 year old dman with his physical tools would be incredibly short sighted. Seems like everyone is in a panic to win next year. How about letting the Oilers put togehter a team that has a chance at winning for the next 8 or 10 years instead of going all in for a couple. Don’t you think the Oil should become a regular playoff team and maybe Cup contenders before they start trading propects for veterans.
    This same logic would apply to trading the 4ov pick. I think everyone should just sit back, relax, and enjoy the building process. As long as we are seeing improvement in the roster and the teams play every year I will be happy. Remember it’s a lot more fun on the way up then it is on the way down.

  65. wheatnoil says:

    G Money,

    Also worth pointing out that advocating Nurse as a trade chip is not the same thing as suggesting he be traded for magic beans. Trading Nurse discussions seem to go off track when we can’t realize the issue has more nuance than that.

  66. Lowetide says:

    G Money:
    Newsflash: most high drafted defensemen who went on to become top pair D were already capable NHL defensemen at the age of 21.

    And most of them DIDN’T have the same level of advantage of physical tools that Nurse has.

    It’s weird isn’t it? A guy like Zach Bogosian was in the NHL at age 18 but I don’t think people regard him as a top pairing D now (maybe they do).

    One of the areas I have always felt people missed on Nurse is his offense. I think 25 points is very reasonable as an annual goal, so basically Jason Smith with a little more offense. I am not certain that is what people refer to as a top pairing D or not, but that is probably going to be his offense.

    The big issue for me is his possession number.

  67. bendelson says:

    thehop: Anyone contemplating trading this guy at this point graduated from the University of Stupid. Dean Kevin Lowe, Professor Mactavish and the old boys club say hi.

    Hey there Hoppy,

    Easy on my alma matter.
    Sure, it may have taken 5 years, but I undergraduated pseudo cum laude, I did.
    (and that was the THREE year program my friend, not that silly 2 year degree).

    Favourite course? BIZ 317: The Art of the Decision Maker taught by professor Tambellini. In the end, no grades were ever awarded but Jerred Smithson would sell pot in the men’s washroom after class, so that was cool.

    I used the experience as a springboard to go on to get a Queen’s online MBA…

  68. wheatnoil says:

    Lowetide: One of the areas I have always felt people missed on Nurse is his offense. I think 25 points is very reasonable as an annual goal, so basically Jason Smith with a little more offense. I am not certain that is what people refer to as a top pairing D or not, but that is probably going to be his offense.

    The big issue for me is his possession number.

    Nurse has a high rate of zone exits carrying the puck out vs passing it out. For all the flack Reinhart sometimes gets for puck-moving, if you look at tape to tape zone exit passes, he actually beats out Nurse. Now, Nurse can absolutely develop and get better at that, but this last year he struggled moving the puck. He relies on his mobility instead.

    I’ll have to take a closer look at it, but I believe that was true even in games he was playing lesser competition.

    Right now, he’s like a mobile NON-puck moving defenceman.

  69. Lowetide says:

    wheatnoil: Nurse has a high rate of zone exits carrying the puck out vs passing it out. For all the flack Reinhart sometimes gets for puck-moving, if you look at tape to tape zone exit passes, he actually beats out Nurse. Now, Nurse can absolutely develop and get better at that, but this last year he struggled moving the puck. He relies on his mobility instead.

    I’ll have to take a closer look at it, but I believe that was true even in games he was playing lesser competition.

    Right now, he’s like a mobile NON-puck moving defenceman.

    I wonder if that is something that sticks over time? Nurse can make good passes, but clearly likes go time more. Is that something that can be coached into his game? I mean, I was mad as hell at Pat Quinn when he was coaching it out of Lubo, but that was different.

  70. wheatnoil says:

    Lowetide: I wonder if that is something that sticks over time? Nurse can make good passes, but clearly likes go time more. Is that something that can be coached into his game? I mean, I was mad as hell at Pat Quinn when he was coaching it out of Lubo, but that was different.

    I agree, Nurse can make a pass. It’s not like Gryba who often flat out just misses the target.

    Is it that Nurse prefers to run with it or is it a decision-making thing?

    One thing to consider, and I acknowledge I’m using small sample sizes here and can’t make sweeping generalizations, but if we continue the Reinhart comparison… Griffin got much better at the exit pass when he came back up from the AHL compared to the start of the year (in games I tracked). Whether it was confidence or development, his numbers increased a LOT… beyond what I’d expect from randomness.

    Maybe that’s some evidence Nurse would benefit from the same development.

  71. G Money says:

    Geez, guys, what’s with all the nuance and evidence and rationality?!

    No room for that kind of nonsense here! Only snide backhanded insults (like this one)!

    Recap:

    – Absolutely, considering Nurse as a trading chip is not the same as wanting to get rid of him, disliking him, or wanting him gone for magic beans.

    – Offense is a missing part of Nurse’s game. Will it arrive? Like the ability to process the game at the elite level and at elite speeds, it may or may not ever arrive. At age 21, the much maligned defensive defenseman Hamonic put up 26 points in 62 games. Contrasted with Nurse’s 10 points in 69 games.

    — Neither of those numbers are definitive, but if they don’t at least give you pause, you are a hopeful fanboy, and certainly not making a rational assessment of Nurse’s potential.

    – “Go Time [skating version]” is one of my favourite parts of Nurse’s game, along with “Go Time [beatdown version]”. I don’t blame him for favouring that, given those wheels of his. No question in my mind, though, in order to be an effective defenseman, he’s going to have to learn to Kenny Rogers the puck.

    All that said, I fully expect Nurse (and Reinhart) to have NHL careers.

    It’s just that “top pairing stud” is looking a lot more hopeful than realistic (and moreso for Reinhart than Nurse).

    (Since I used point form on this post, for some reason I nearly felt compelted to start with “Great post, LT!”)

  72. AsiaOil says:

    wheatnoil: Right now, he’s like a mobile NON-puck moving defenceman.

    Spot on WO. I’ve called him a 2010s version of Jason Smith – or to put it in other words – he’s a modern defensive defenseman. EVERYONE must have wheels in today’s game, it’s not terribly unusual to be a great skater, and it’s not the huge advantage it used to be. Nurse has some real positives, skating, toughness, leadership – but people fooling themselves if they think offense is suddenly going to materialize out of no where. We’ve watch the guy intensely for years – it isn’t there – and his frantic dashes into the offensive zone that turn into nothing are not suddenly going to turn to gold. Teams figured him out pretty quickly and the points evaporated.

    Being a modern Jason Smith is not without value – quite the contrary – but If WPG or NYI takes Nurse for Trouba or Hamonic you do that without question or hesitation. We are 5 deep at LHD and 2 have to be converted to RHD to achieve balance. Only exception is if we deal one of the other 4 and send Nurse to the AHL where he belongs. But it’s two LHD traded or one traded and Nurse to AHL – those are the only options given the impending expansion draft.

    The defense is a mess with 5 LHD (3 who are third pair) and nothing but 3rd pair guys at RHD – but it’s better than last year at this time where we only had Klef (who was still a total question mark) and no one else better than #6 or #7. I think Chia would not do the Reinhart deal now but there was no way to predict the emergence of Klef and Davy or know that Sekera would sign. We were beyond desperate and people forget how badly MacT screwed up the defense. At least now we have fewer holes and assets to trade.

  73. Genjutsu says:

    G Money:
    Geez, guys, what’s with all the nuance and evidence and rationality?!

    No room for that kind of nonsense here!Only snide backhanded insults (like this one)!

    Recap:

    – Absolutely, considering Nurse as a trading chip is not the same as wanting to get rid of him, disliking him, or wanting him gone for magic beans.

    – Offense is a missing part of Nurse’s game.Will it arrive?Like the ability to process the game at the elite level and at elite speeds, it may or may not ever arrive.At age 21, the much maligned defensive defenseman Hamonic put up 26 points in 62 games.Contrasted with Nurse’s 10 points in 69 games.

    — Neither of those numbers are definitive, but if they don’t at least give you pause, you are a hopeful fanboy, and certainly not making a rational assessment of Nurse’s potential.

    – “Go Time [skating version]” is one of my favourite parts of Nurse’s game, along with “Go Time [beatdown version]”.I don’t blame him for favouring that, given those wheels of his.No question in my mind, though, in order to be an effective defenseman, he’s going to have to learn to Kenny Rogers the puck.

    All that said, I fully expect Nurse (and Reinhart) to have NHL careers.

    It’s just that “top pairing stud” is looking a lot more hopeful than realistic (and moreso for Reinhart than Nurse).

    (Since I used point form on this post, for some reason I nearly felt compelted to start with “Great post, LT!”)

    I’m going to go ahead and agree with this as a whole.

    However still would be a classic case of trading a player before we really know what we have in him.

    This would be a huge mistake and could one of this moments you point to in ten years and say this where it went wrong. Like Ottawa choosing Redden over Chara.

    PS I’m also of the opinion that team lives him enough that there would have to be an overpay of ludicrous proportions for it to even be considered by management.

    Nurse isn’t going anywhere no matter how much sense it might make to move him.

  74. Yeti says:

    G Money,

    – Great post, G$!

    – Would you consider that Nurse’s trade value has likely fallen over this year? If so, trading now may result in getting paid in rupees not dollars compared to letting him build an impressive resume in the AHL this coming year.

    – Did you have any splits on Davidson playing LD vs. RD? I know he was shunted over there for a period, but hadn’t seen any statistical breakdown of the impact. Perhaps it was too small a sample size. If it could work, does that change our view of the D?

  75. Lowetide says:

    wheatnoil: I agree, Nurse can make a pass. It’s not like Gryba who often flat out just misses the target.

    Is it that Nurse prefers to run with it or is it a decision-making thing?

    One thing to consider, and I acknowledge I’m using small sample sizes here and can’t make sweeping generalizations, but if we continue the Reinhart comparison… Griffin got much better at the exit pass when he came back up from the AHL compared to the start of the year (in games I tracked). Whether it was confidence or development, his numbers increased a LOT… beyond what I’d expect from randomness.

    Maybe that’s some evidence Nurse would benefit from the same development.

    Absolutely. Nurse did in fact have nice runs (11 and 6 iirc) of games at the beginning and end of the season, but there is little doubt that the trip up the depth chart at age 20 was too much for him. I am not one to read too much into a rookie season (Jonas Brodin’s best season was his first one) and am very interested to see how they handle him as a sophomore.

  76. Ryan says:

    Yeti:
    G Money,

    – Great post, G$!

    – Would you consider that Nurse’s trade value has likely fallen over this year? If so, trading now may result in getting paid in rupees not dollars compared to letting him build an impressive resume in the AHL this coming year.

    I think you’re missing the point.

    If we assume that other teams have management that have done at least as much research on defensemen development comparables as Jonathan Willis…

    Then they know that a defenseman drafted top 15 out of Canadian major junior playing the bulk of his draft plus four season in the AHL is a major red flag for a relative draft bust. Then you’d realize that there’s no chance that you can pump Nurse’s trade value by playing a significant number of games in the AHL next season.

    Basically, the Oilers have to estimate how likely Nurse is to take a major step forward next season then weigh that against his value right now. I think Nurse still has significant trade value right now. If he doesn’t improve much next year, his value will take a big hit.

    For the record, I doubt the Oilers trade him. He’s a fan favorite because of how he plays. I like Nurse an try to take the emotion out of evaluating him. The problem with projecting Nurse is that he has NHL speed and strength already, but doesn’t process the game well enough. While there are players that take a big step forward when they find half a step in terms of foot speed like Draisatl, or others that get their man strength…

    Let’s hope that the game slows down for him.

  77. thehop says:

    bendelson,

    Well done!

    (Slow claps while laughing hysterically as my wife gives me the eye roll from hell)

  78. Yeti says:

    Ryan: Let’s hope that the game slows down for him.

    Yes, but isn’t the point of half a season in the AHL precisely to help the game slow down for him? If he demonstrated strong point production in the AHL before coming back up, would that not be for the best of player and team, trade or no trade.

  79. Lowetide says:

    thehop:
    bendelson,

    Well done!

    (Slow claps while laughing hysterically as my wife gives me the eye roll from hell)

    I meant to give that props, too. Well done B!

  80. Ryan says:

    wheatnoil: I agree, Nurse can make a pass. It’s not like Gryba who often flat out just misses the target.

    Is it that Nurse prefers to run with it or is it a decision-making thing?

    One thing to consider, and I acknowledge I’m using small sample sizes here and can’t make sweeping generalizations, but if we continue the Reinhart comparison… Griffin got much better at the exit pass when he came back up from the AHL compared to the start of the year (in games I tracked). Whether it was confidence or development, his numbers increased a LOT… beyond what I’d expect from randomness.

    Maybe that’s some evidence Nurse would benefit from the same development.

    Great stuff. I think that’s one area that defensemen can improve incrementally, but if you’re not Drew Doughty or Victor Hedman, well you’re never going to be.

    The consensus is that he’s not Grybaesque at making outlet passes, but he’s not very good either.

    That combined with not having a NHL quality clapper will really limit his offensive upside.

  81. godot10 says:

    Didn’t Ekblad’s possession numbers without Campbell look bad in his rookie season?

    Nurse’s ability to carry the puck out is an asset, not a liability. His passing will improve if he is played on the 3rd pairing with a competent D partner.

    Last year, he was played too high in the roster, or with a non-competent veteran, or with an AHL level partner. So of course his possession numbers are going to look bad. Playing hie first pairing with Sekera or 2nd pairing with Schultz or 3rd pairing with Pardy or Clendenning was throwing him in the deep end without help.

    He is not going to improve his passing in the AHL. He is just too physically dominant at that level. The way to improve his passing is to play him on the 3rd pairing in the NHL with a competent veteran. i.e. Nurse/Davidson.

    But the Oilers have to add two competent top 4D to be able to able to develop Nurse properly, so Davidson can be 3rd pairing. And Nurse and Reinhart battle for the spot with Davidson.

  82. rickithebear says:

    godot10: Nurse’s ability to carry the puck out is an asset, not a liability.

    Yeah!
    Lets skate the puck-up!
    Allow the opposition Wall to set-up.
    Enter the zone abandoning my def responsibility.
    Not get penetration into the HSCA area.
    Lose pocession.
    Give up an exposed rush.
    Skate back to apply back pressure
    But still give up a HSCA shot.

    I have loved the effectiveness of that rush.

    STAY AT THE BARN DOOR YOU STUD!

  83. G Money says:

    Yeti:
    G Money,

    – Great post, G$!

    – Would you consider that Nurse’s trade value has likely fallen over this year? If so, trading now may result in getting paid in rupees not dollars compared to letting him build an impressive resume in the AHL this coming year.

    – Did you have any splits on Davidson playing LD vs. RD? I know he was shunted over there for a period, but hadn’t seen any statistical breakdown of the impact. Perhaps it was too small a sample size. If it could work, does that change our view of the D?

    Heh heh…

    – I think for smart GMs, Nurse’s value has been impacted. If they look at development timelines, they know there is now some risk in terms of what his ceiling will be.

    However, let’s face it: many GMs are not smart. The number of foolish moves made for foolish reasons is legion. For many, they will see Nurse’s snarl and his skating (not to mention Edmonton’s traditional rep as far as developing and evaluating defensemen), and fall into the same trap that many fans have fallen into, and will trade based on ‘future top pairing stud’.

    If Chia can be the smart one in the equation, trading an overvaluation for someone’s undervaluation … well, that will be a nice reversal of the last many years of Oiler trades.

    – As far as Davidson goes, I sent a pile of WOWY+handedness data over to Wheat, and he definitely found the same effect that HockeyGraphs found: L-L pairs consistently underperformed L-R pairs.

    He looked at a handful of other teams and found mostly the same effect, with a few (as always) exceptions.

    One interesting thing [I took pains to note] is he found that rightie-rich Calgary had the same effect in reverse: they often played R-R pairs of their best defensemen, and those pairs tended to underperform L-R pairs even when paired with lesser players.

    QoC effects would play a part in that, no doubt, but when multiple pairs show the same effect, the QoC effect you’d expect would wash out (since in theory, when a high end pair who faces the toughs gets split up, of the two new pairings, one should benefit from the QoC effect, and one should not.)

    However, I only have the handedness and the pair data – without looking at the game footage, I don’t actually have information in each case on whether it was Davidson playing his off side or his partner.

  84. Bruce McCurdy says:

    G Money,

    Actually Hamonic’s 26-point season came at age 20, 6 months younger than Nurse. He was called up in late November of his first pro campaign. Despite playing only 62 games he set career highs in goals (5) & penalty minutes (103) while only once in the five seasons since has he exceeded 26 points. Which perhaps suggests Hamonic learned to let the game come to him a little.

    Like Milan Lucic before him, Hamonic was selected with a 2nd round pick that once belonged to the Oilers. Sigh.

  85. Bruce McCurdy says:

    rickithebear: Yeah!
    Lets skate the puck-up!
    Allow the opposition Wall to set-up.
    Enter the zone abandoning my def responsibility.
    Not get penetration into the HSCA area.
    Lose pocession.
    Give up an exposed rush.
    Skate back to apply back pressure
    But still give up a HSCA shot.

    I have loved the effectiveness of that rush.

    STAY AT THE BARN DOOR YOU STUD!

    I have to hand it to you Ricki, it’s easy to visualize that entire sequence just as you describe, because it happened seemingly dozens of times. A key phase is “Not get penetration into the HSC(F) area”. It seemed like Nurse’s signature move at the offensive blue line was a shift to the outside and along the boards, from which a low percentage shot or an attempted wrap around would ensue. Or, as you put it, a loss of pocession & a jail break the other way.

    I can remember a few plays where Nurse rushed the puck & McDavid stayed back to cover for him & I’m going “exactly what is the point? Hello??”

  86. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: When Stralman was identified as being an above average player, he was playing 2nd pair with Staal in NYR.McDonough and Girardi were 1st pair.

    Tyler still had his blog and had created a data base that separated all NHL players into 4 buckets, which ostensibly were 4 levels of competition.

    He showed that Stralman had as good, if not better, results as McDonaugh vs top comp.

    That’s when the Stralman talk started.

    Now he plays with probably the best Dman in the NHL in Hedman and that pair is a killer.

    Also,

    2nd pair and 1st pair Dmen see different comp, but its not *that* much different.The bigger drop is from 2nd pair to 3rd pair.

    When I had a look at Demers here: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/04/oiler-right-shot-dman-search-1-jason.html , I tried to suss out how he did vs various comp by using different forwards as proxy for the type of comp they would see.

    I think it works ok, but its not Tyler’s data base.Gmoney is working on something for us in that regard.

    Anyhow, Demers has very good results in what I would consider top comp and he did it playing with Oduya, who looks almost to be done (Nill went out and got Russell to play with Demers for the playoffs and Oduya went to the third pair)

    Its not as robust as Tyler’s stuff, but I think Demers would be a good bet to handle 1st pairing comp.

    He’s been a Dman in the Western Conference for his whole career, so its not like he’d see anything new here and having Klef as a partner (whom I rate very highly) would help as well.

    But I remember a Sertain Someone in Toronto media saying that a team was going to sign Stralman to a big contract during the summer and immediately come to regret it because he wasn’t good enough or physical enough.

    I wonder what could have happened to suddenly make Stralman a first-pairing defender on a Stanley Cup contender?

    (insert levels of sarcastic derision to one’s own preference)

  87. RexLibris says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Like Milan Lucic before him, Hamonic was selected with a 2nd round pick that once belonged to the Oilers. Sigh.

    We may not have playoff hockey.
    We may not have bona fide national media coverage.
    We may not be able to woo the prettiest free-agents.

    But we will always have our nostalgic self-flagellation on which to fall back.

  88. AsiaOil says:

    Perfect summary of the player……

    rickithebear: Yeah!
    Lets skate the puck-up!
    Allow the opposition Wall to set-up.
    Enter the zone abandoning my def responsibility.
    Not get penetration into the HSCA area.
    Lose pocession.
    Give up an exposed rush.
    Skate back to apply back pressure
    But still give up a HSCA shot.

    I have loved the effectiveness of that rush.

    STAY AT THE BARN DOOR YOU STUD!

  89. G Money says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Which perhaps suggests Hamonic learned to let the game come to him a little.
    Like Milan Lucic before him, Hamonic was selected with a 2nd round pick that once belonged to the Oilers. Sigh.

    Yup.

    And goddamnit to ouch.

  90. tarvbc says:

    I understand that Nurse struggled and would have been better suited playing 50+ games in Bakersfield but I still think people should chill out on him, he’s gunna be a solid pro and a strong dman. I’m beginning to think they didn’t send him down earlier cause to be honest we didn’t have a winning roster from day one and to be fair I think this year is somewhat of a freebie for the management cause they inherited such a terribly contract managed team. PC and TMac might have thrown him into the deep end to really see what kind of player would appear. Doing this may have given coach and management an advantage at gauging on what needs to be done in the future on the back end. Do they keep him for now or for longer or trade him ? They might have solved any questions with him regarding this years usage on the blueline.

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