ONCE MORE TO THE WOOD SHED

No one ever accused Oilers fans of getting over things quickly, and the Griffin Reinhart trade at last year’s draft is hanging around like a pugnacious meatloaf. Today, Bob McKenzie was on TSN 1040 Vancouver talking about the Erik Gudbranson trade—and the subject of Griffin Reinhart’s trade to Edmonton came up.

  • Bob McKenzie: “Yeah, you never know. They paid a stiff price to get Griffin Reinhart. I thought at the time that they made the deal at the draft last year that the Griffin Reinhart deal was a good deal, with the one proviso that he had to be NHL-ready and able to step in and play, and it turns out that he wasn’t. So that deal for Edmonton –it’s not to say it can’t be an effective deal if Reinhart develops into that guy that you can count on as somebody that can play in your top 4 or 5. But the fact that he wasn’t able to do it this year – and that was kind of the motivation for giving up a first round pick is that we don’t want to wait for a young defenseman, so let’s go out and get ourselves one who should be ready now after playing pro (with) some NHL time (and) also some time in the minors. That’s a guy that I anticipated – I thought he’d go right into their lineup and be  pretty effective. The fact that he wasn’t, and they paid a pretty steep price. So yeah, it’ll be pretty interesting to see what happens on the defensemen market here.” Source

Not a word out of place, and we have talked on this blog about all of these elements. Here is what I said the day after the trade:

In terms of value, Peter Chiarelli gave up too much. Reinhart—if everything works out—projects as a second-pairing guy and the price paid was dear, too dear. Oilers fans will grind themselves into a fine white powder on this issue, I choose not to do it. Two things are absolutely true:

  • Griffin Reinhart is a substantial prospect who can fill a role inside Edmonton’s top 6D when he matures, perhaps as early as this season.
  • Edmonton gave up two picks in a deep draft for a prospect who—while more advanced than the draft picks—is unlikely to play a similar kind of feature role upon arrival.

The Oilers paid dearly but were glad to do it in order to secure a prospect they knew very well. There’s no real way to argue it was a good deal in terms of value but the new regime believes Reinhart is worth the risk. Lose the battle, win the war. The club didn’t like the No. 4 defenseman on their list as much as Reinhart, so they pulled the trigger. They liked the tools blue, but felt a mean streak was more valuable.

The Edmonton Oilers drafted for need. This should not be news. A final note: I find it baffling the club made this move the same month they fired Stu MacGregor. It was a confusing day for the Oilers and their fans, but you’ll hear no quarrel from me about Griffin Reinhart as long as we agree not to discuss the price. Source
reinhair off ir capture
Here is what I said a few days after the deal:
  • Reinhart MAY be NHL-ready. Projecting him as a solution this fall is jumping the gun. Source
This is basically the foundation for every conversation regarding Griffin Reinhart since draft day. The comments below will be one of three types:
  • People telling me I am crazy because I believe it was an overpay.
  • People telling me I am crazy for even thinking Griffin Reinhart can play hockey.
  • People genuinely trying to find out about the player.

I have given up on the first two groups, but would like to address the third group (we will have cookies and milk as soon as the rowdies leave). I like to hear from coaches in these situations. Here’s one now.

  • Oilers assistant coach Jim Johnson on Reinhart:  “For him, it’s his skating ability and making sure he feels comfortable enough that he’s not flat-footed. If he’s got good momentum coming back and gaps up well in the offensive zone on offensive rushes, if he does that, I think that will give him a little bit more confidence defending. He’ll get better, he’s a young defenceman.”
  • More Johnson: “We’ve got to realize a lot of young defencemen take a long time to develop at this level and we’re going to be patient with him and do it the right way. It’s going to be a lot like Davidson who played a lot of important minutes in the American League, caught up to the pro game and continued his development.”
  • Source

TODD MCLELLAN

  • “It’s healthy, youth coming through if they can be productive is a real positive thing. I consider Griff to be a very young defenseman in the league, very young. He’s probably played less than Davey (Brandon Davidson) now I think, so he needs that time to grow and gain some experience.”

All of these quotes and lines are telling us one way or another that Reinhart was not ready—and may not play a substantial role on an Oilers team. Back in November (and before) I suggested Reinhart was a luxury for a team that could not afford one (and here is why).

  • Lowetide: If I’m reading the internet correctly these days, Griffin Reinhart is a slow boat who can barely tie his shoes—while also being an NHL-ready defenseman with size and mobility. It can’t be both, the scouts on draft day liked him plenty. I think he’s a solid young defenseman with size, foot speed, the ability to pass and make a pass, protect the puck, win battles and play with an edge. I think he’s close to NHL-ready. I also think Darnell Nurse is a better prospect now and into the future. Source

Trading for Reinhart was an overpay, but one of the reasons for the deal (NHL-ready D) was not at all clear on the day the trade was made—this blog argued (correctly) that Darnell Nurse was farther along then, now and in the future. That was the mistake, a reflection not on the player, but rather the management. I suggest we put that aside and discuss the player.

reinhart tc capture

Griffin Reinhart may have a Thomas Hickey career, and he may never become the player everyone hoped he would be on draft day. That said, it is genuinely crazy to keep hammering the young man about a trade he had nothing to do with—and it brings any hope for a reasonable online conversation to a halt with great speed.

So, can we set aside that meatloaf and have an adult conversation about Griffin Reinhart and his future? My guess is no. However, let’s try one more time. Ahem.

QUESTION!

NURSE V REINHART

Small sample size, but the question is this: If the Oilers trade Darnell Nurse for a RHD, can Griffin Reinhart be regarded as a reasonable substitute—in the coming season and beyond?

WAR ON ICE D SLEDGE

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

98 Responses to "ONCE MORE TO THE WOOD SHED"

  1. Doug McLachlan says:

    LT, some of the discussion on the player noted the “surge” in play near the end of the season.

    Noting the dangers of taking a small sample size and further carving it down – what has his “best” looked like?

  2. Rondo says:

    I disagree with Reinhart talk. There were scouts that said he wasn’t even the best D on his AHL team. He had skating issues. To expect him to walk into the NHL was foolish and a serious mistake , and giving up the picks in the so called strongest draft in over a decade.

    He was slow for the AHL but for the NHL he will be fine.

  3. Ducey says:

    MMMMM. Meatloaf.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    LT, some of the discussion on the player noted the “surge” in play near the end of the season.

    Noting the dangers of taking a small sample size and further carving it down – what has his “best” looked like?

    I will quote our friend WheatNOil

    Fayne and Reinhart have not been in Sekera territory in the small sample of games I’ve measured, but they do show their strength in preventing zone entries. When combined with the Zone Exit data, Reinhart looks like a fairly balanced defenceman… preventing zone entries at Fayne levels but with the ability to move the puck.

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/03/tracking-defensive-zone-entries-andrej-grey/

  5. GCW_69 says:

    Until I see Reinhart rag doll Polak how could we possibly see him as an adequate replacement for Nurse? ; )

  6. Oilspill says:

    Nurse functions on pure athleticism. Needs to develop the finer skills. If he does look out. Reinhart needs to make faster decisions and get nastier.

  7. Rondo says:

    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer
    Assuming Matthews and 2 Finns are gone here is my top 5 at #4 for Oilers:
    1. Tkachuk
    2. Dubios
    3. Sergachev
    4. Brown
    5. Chycrun

  8. Ducey says:

    Frankly, I don’t care who won what. I think he will be a fine player. I get tired of the internet. Its seems it was invented for people to complain about others. The Oilers have defensive depth now. They didn’t have it last offseason when Davidson and Oesterle were unknowns and Nurse was a rookie.

    I think the interesting thing about the trade yesterday and the Reinhart/ Hamilton trades is that the cost to acquire young D is coming into focus.

    It is going to cost either a first or someone of interest drafted in the first, a second rounder, and likely the equivalent of a third. A three for one.

    Speculate on the cost of Barrie, Vatanen, etc with this in mind.

    The Oilers are going to have to trade down substantially from 4, and throw in a 2nd and 3rd to get someone young and still under contract.

    I would hope that Yak, + a 2nd and a 3rd would do it, but I don’t think Yak is worth much more than a 2nd. That would make the cost a tradedown of the #4, Yak and a third.

    None of those deals make me happy. I could handle a tradedown of a few spots, but I doubt that will do it. It likely would have to be a tradedown of some 20-25 spots or so.

    I think if I am Chia I look to grab a vet from a cash strapped team, sign Demers, Gryba and someone like Campbell/ Yandel, and see what Yak will get me (a younger RH Dman). Fire Nurse and Reinhart on the farm, along with the young RH D.

    That might not get the team quite to the playoffs, but it would be an improvement and keep all the young pieces in place.

    Sekera- Demers
    Yandle/ Campbell – Fayne
    Davidson – Klefbom
    Gryba
    AHL: Nurse, Reinhart, Oesterle, RHD, Musil, Simpson

    That looks plenty good to me.

  9. Lowetide says:

    I don’t mention it much because the entire subject is so acidic, but Reinhart as an Oil King was among the best junior players I have seen. Dominant.

  10. LadiesloveSmid says:

    with Klefbom and Nurse already, it was just such a weird trade. Inexperienced left shot D were the organization’s most populous area of the roster. The signing of Sekera and the emergence of Davidson just made it so much worse. Maybe you trade Nurse, but I don’t think you’ll get full value and maybe you regret that in a few years. Reinhart won’t bring back what he brought in for NYI. Only can sit on their hands

  11. Richard S.S. says:

    IMO, Griffin Reinhart doesn’t have skating issues so much that he has decision issues that effect his skating. Right now he’s making better decisions so his skating is fine. It’s possible he never had skating issues. But I could be wrong.

    It’s totally unfair to expect every Defensive prospect/draft pick to be a #1 Pairing D. If they belong there they’ll get there, if not just be thankful they can play D. Reinhart can play D.

    Players can have their breakout/breakthrough moments throughout the year, but recognizing that this has happened takes time lest it be premature/just lucky. Sometimes small sample size is all you have to work with and you ignore that at your own peril. Sometimes it’s real, but sometimes it’s just lucky.

  12. GCW_69 says:

    More seriously, I think Nurse and Reinhart should both be in Bakersfield next year, so in the short term it doesn’t matter.

  13. Chachi says:

    It seems that, unlike our kind host, people find it really difficult to cheer for Griffin Reinhart to succeed while thinking that the Oilers paid too much for him in the trade. I hope both that Reinhart has a long and fruitful career with the Oilers and that the team never again pays the price they did for an unproven player.

  14. John Chambers says:

    Reinhart will also be on a low dollar, low cap hit contract for several years. I imagine he’ll become a full-time NHL’er sooner or later this coming season, and when he does the economy from his contract can go toward affording a veteran D higher up in the batting order.

  15. GCW_69 says:

    Rondo:
    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer
    Assuming Matthews and 2 Finns are gone here is my top 5 at #4 for Oilers:
    1. Tkachuk
    2. Dubios
    3. Sergachev
    4. Brown
    5. Chycrun

    And once again I will be annoyed on draft day. Chiarelli took some of the fun out of McDavid day with a stupid trade last year. Passing on Dubois this year seems inevitable. Will we never have balance?

  16. stevezie says:

    Ideally we trade Reinhardt and keep Nurse, but if we have to trade Nurse to get that rhD (likely) than Reinhardt is a decent “best young D in the minors that you have hope for”.

    We didn’t win the trade, but we can’t afford to trade Nurse

  17. godot10 says:

    Rondo:
    I disagree with Reinharttalk. There were scouts that said he wasn’t even the best Don his AHL team. He had skating issues. To expect him to walk into the NHL was foolish and a serious mistake , and giving up the picks in the so called strongest draft in over a decade.

    He was slow for the AHL but for the NHL he will be fine.

    Reinhart isn’t slow. Musil is slow. Slow decision making can make a defensemen look slow, when they aren’t. Reinhart wasn’t being assertive. He was playing not to make a mistake. So he looked slow. He won’t be slow once he becomes assertive in his play.

    Nurse and Reinhart are polar opposite. Nurse is overly assertive. Reinhart lacks assertiveness. Nurse has to be tuned down. Reinhart has to be tuned up. Tuning down is best done in the NHL with a veteran partner on the third pair. Tuning up is best done in the minors with short stints in the NHL>

  18. godot10 says:

    Rondo:
    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer
    Assuming Matthews and 2 Finns are gone here is my top 5 at #4 for Oilers:
    1. Tkachuk
    2. Dubios
    3. Sergachev
    4. Brown
    5. Chycrun

    If we are talking about slow guys. Matt Tkachuk is slow. Jason Allison Dave Andreychuk slow.

  19. Rondo says:

    Nurse was handled horribly putting this guy up against top lines in the NHL , it crushed his confidence by the time they moved him down to 3rd pairing he not a good as player as he was when he started in the NHL.

  20. godot10 says:

    Ducey:

    I think the interesting thing about the trade yesterday and the Reinhart/ Hamilton trades is that the cost to acquire young D is coming into focus.

    It is going to cost either a first or someone of interest drafted in the first, a second rounder, and likely the equivalent of a third. A three for one.

    Speculate on the cost of Barrie, Vatanen, etc with this in mind.

    Offer sheets, if the trade price is too high for D. Try making trades so the team(s) know the offer sheet is coming July 1. The offer sheet compensation is fairly low.

    If the Jets haven’t traded me Trouba by the draft, he’s getting an offer sheet July 1, and I’ll let it be known, the offer sheets will keep coming until someone doesn’t match.

  21. Klima's_Bucket says:

    I haven’t seen this mentioned anywhere yet in regards to the Gudbranson trade.
    But in the event of an expansion draft, Gudbranson would have to be protected, McCann would not.

    So there’s another reason for a bigger win for the Panthers side as they can protect someone else instead.

  22. godot10 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    with Klefbom and Nurse already, it was just such a weird trade. Inexperienced left shot D were the organization’s most populous area of the roster. The signing of Sekera and the emergence of Davidson just made it so much worse. Maybe you trade Nurse, but I don’t think you’ll get full value and maybe you regret that in a few years. Reinhart won’t bring back what he brought in for NYI. Only can sit on their hands

    When Chiarelli traded for Reinhart, the only left D he knew he had was Klefbom.

    Nikitin and Ference were done. Davidson was an experienced AHL’er. And Nurse was graduating from the CHL.

    Reinhart was a de-risking move. If one can’t find an actual proven D, one adds another young D who is close.

  23. godot10 says:

    stevezie:
    Ideally we trade Reinhardt and keep Nurse, but if we have to trade Nurse to get that rhD(likely) than Reinhardt is a decent “best young D in the minors that you have hope for”.

    We didn’t win the trade, but we can’t afford to trade Nurse

    Ideally, one doesn’t trade Reinhart or Nurse. The Oilers need to add two D, preferably without subtracting. 8D is NOT too many.

  24. Richard S.S. says:

    So after reading all this, I believe Griffin Reinhart is a suitable option if Darnell Nurse is traded. I still don’t know who’ll be better. Secondly, Reinhart should do all right with the right partner when he makes the Roster. Thirdly, this is a weird offseason, with prices being so unreasonable. Without the Draft Picks, does Chiarelli have enough tradable asset strength to take advantage of cap-tight teams?

    I think that if you have to know what the cap is before you make decisions, perhaps you shouldn’t be the one making the decisions. Chiarelli should know who he’s got by the short hairs by now and who will deal. Being cap-tight year after year can cause untold difficulties and unwise decisions. This is fascinating.

  25. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    If Chia trades away Eberle and/or RNH and/or Yak, said player will stand a chance to finally play in front of a capable blue line, and will likely improve offensively. Damn it Chia!!

    If he doesn’t trade away Eberle and/or RNH and/or Yak and the blue line remains a tire fire, he’ll have just burnt year 2 of McDavid’s ELC. Damn it Chia!!

    Even the upcoming draft… whether he picks Tkachuk, Dubois, a D-man or trades the pick… Damn it Chia!!

    And Chia doesn’t deserve this. It should be “Damn it Katz”. Again and again. The last 7 years of extra terrible hockey are all on Katz. (“Burn it down Tambo… we’re going to build a dynasty *JAZZ HANDS*”)

    It’s true that Oiler fans don’t get over things quickly. But I think a lot of us would get over a lot of the things much faster if this team would stop being so embarassingly bad.

  26. ZL1986 says:

    Cotton Tuebert 2.0, book it!

  27. Gordies Elbow says:

    I think that draft picks are overvalued, relative to the players taken, due to a combination of availability bias and the endowment effect. For the availability bias, it’s easier to remember the one good players in the draft, than it is to remember middling players or busts taken at the same position in the draft.

    For example, the 15 picks at #16 from 1996-2010 (chosen to represent developed players) were:
    Vladimir Tarasenko, Nick Leddy, Joe Colborne, Colton Gillies, Ty Wishart, Alex Bourret, Petteri Nokelainen, Steve Bernier, Jakub Klepis, RJ Umberger, Marcel Hossa, David Tanabe, Eric Chouinard, Ty Jones, and Mario Larocque. It’s easy to look down the list of the names, and think that it could be a Tarasenko level player. It certainly could, although it’s more likely that it’s not. No one would argue that it could be a Ty Wishart (playing in the DEL-2) or an Alex Bourret (last playing in the LNAH) or an Eric Chouinard (who got 90 games in the show, and is playing for Grenoble in France.)

    That availability bias, combined with the endowment effect, whereby people ascribe more value to things merely because they own them, and you can see how it’s natural that fans (and likely teams) overvalue their own prospects and picks. The psychology is the same as a lottery (which, for all intents and purposes, I guess this is.)

    As we’re in a thread dedicated to Griffin Reinhart, I thought I’d take a moment and attempt to dispel some of the bias by showing an example. I compared Barzal versus another WHL centre from the last five years, both right shooters, both on good teams, within an inch of height, 5 pounds of weight.

    Draft year -1 goals per game (minimum 59 games).
    Barzal: 0.237, Player Y: 0.273

    Draft year goals per game (minimum 44 games)
    Barzal: 0.273, Player Y: 0.397

    Draft year +1 goals per game (minimum 58 games)
    Barzal: 0.466, Player Y: 0.625

    OK, player Y is a little better goal scorer, but it’s pretty close. Now onto points per game.

    Draft year -1 points per game (minimum 59 games).
    Barzal: 0.915, Player Y: 0.697

    Draft year points per game (minimum 44 games)
    Barzal: 1.295, Player Y: 1.103

    Draft year +1 points per game (minimum 58 games)
    Barzal: 1.517, Player Y: 1.458

    Ok, Barzal’s ahead on points per game, but as you can see, it’s still quite close. Both players progressed on their teams at similar rates, and both have gone on to sign contracts with their respective teams.

    So, who’s player Y?

    Griffin’s former teammate, Michael St. Croix, who spent the season playing for the Greenville Swamp Rabbits (going 66gp -11g – 29a – 40pts.) As an Oil King fan, I thought that he was a sure-fire NHL’er, and wanted Edmonton to take him in his draft year.

    Does this mean that Barzal isn’t going to develop further, and have a productive NHL career? No, but it does indicate the great leap that’s required to make the NHL, and the odds of making it are quite slim the further you move down the draft.

    There was a great deal of teeth gnashing last year for moving the picks. It’ll be interesting to see how the picks play out over time.

  28. DRFNsuperstar says:

    godot10: Ideally, one doesn’t trade Reinhart or Nurse.The Oilers need to add two D, preferably without subtracting.8D is NOT too many.

    Agreed. One thing the Gudbranson trade should show us is big, mean, athletic defencemen with pedigree hold value for years. Hold onto Nurse, get Demers, trade for Barrie, let Reinhart develop. After next season decide what you have in all 8 of your D and then trade the one that is not valued internally but will still hold value with the Bennings of the world and trade them. Nurse is worth to much to be a throw in Ville Pokka style

    Trade Eberle and Yak prior to the expansion draft and hire a bunch of right handed Pisani’s. Load the D, load the centres, pick the best, trade the rest…become contenders.

  29. leadfarmer says:

    Reinhart didn’t look very good early in the season because he was paired with Gryba which is a very redundant pairing if you ask me. He played much better when paired with guys that can move the puck later in the season. I get a kick when people project in May where a player should be playing next season. Player and especially defensemen development is very uneven. We have absolutely no idea who takes a big Kyle Brodziak step forward and who doesn’t.
    I didn’t like the trade on draft day, but its on the GM and not on the player. I think he will have a long career. Just thought it was funny people ripping on Vancouver for doing a trade that we did last year, and the player they got is much further in his development and was a 20 min a night defender on a good Florida team.

  30. LadiesloveSmid says:

    godot10: When Chiarelli traded for Reinhart, the only left D he knew he had was Klefbom.

    Nikitin and Ference were done.Davidson was an experienced AHL’er.And Nurse was graduating from the CHL.

    Reinhart was a de-risking move.If one can’t find an actual proven D, one adds another young D who is close.

    Klefbom wasn’t asserted as a top 3 defenceman. 77 games in to his career at the time. Nurse was just getting started in BAK. Their strength was young LHD, they shouldn’t have thought they could employ Klef-Rein-Nurse up the left side without finishing 2nd last.

    If the choices were find and actual proven D or overpay for a redundant young D, then you sign a replacement level player for a year for money.

  31. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Pretty crazy how there was no suitable partner for Reinhart though. Oesterle may have been the best option and he’s a replacement level player, and left handed as well.

    Makes me think Klefbom is even better than we thought. The numbers he has with the help he has.

  32. godot10 says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Klefbom wasn’t asserted as a top 3 defenceman. 77 games in to his career at the time. Nurse was just getting started in BAK. Their strength was young LHD, they shouldn’t have thought they could employ Klef-Rein-Nurse up the left side without finishing 2nd last.

    If the choices were find and actual proven D or overpay for a redundant young D, then you sign a replacement level player for a year for money.

    Chiarelli had NO assets to trade last year. Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle had all been devalued by the MacT-Dementor era, and they had no clue what Draisaitl was.

    He ended up getting the best UFA D. He tried hard for Hamilton. But there was not much out there last summer.

    Barzal has yet to play a single second in the NHL. Reinhart is still winning the race by a country mile.

  33. LadiesloveSmid says:

    godot10: Chiarelli had NO assets to trade last year.Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle had all been devalued by the MacT-Dementor era, and they had no clue what Draisaitl was.

    He ended up getting the best UFA D.He tried hard for Hamilton.But there was not much out there last summer.

    Barzal has yet to play a single second in the NHL.Reinhart is still winning the race by a country mile.

    Reinhart has had no impact yet, I can’t say his contributions are ahead by a country mile. He had a luke warm season and was passed over by Davidson, Nurse, and Oesterle.

    Having to fill the D somehow is how some would defend the Nikitin signing, sign guys like Schlemko/Zidlicky/Franson who make it to September in UFA. They sunk big assets into a player type they didn’t need. I’m cheering for Reinhart to make it, but I have a hard time seeing where he fits.

    They’ve got Klef-Sekera-Davidson on the left side. Fayne on the right side, and we’re all clamouring for 2 RHD to be added this summer. Is Fayne dumped/bought out next year and GR slides up to 3RD? Then is Nurse in Bakersfield for 2 more seasons? After that? Do they then run L-R, L-L, L-L?

  34. Water Fire says:

    Lowetide:
    I don’t mention it much because the entire subject is so acidic, but Reinhart as an Oil King was among the best junior players I have seen. Dominant.

    As I see things watching at the end of the season he was playing really well, efficiently getting things going the right way which i see as the hallmark of great defensemen as opposed to big rushes with fancy dangles.

    Not that rushes aren’t good just that the other part is the majority of play.

  35. Jaxon says:

    I saw Alex Petrovic as a target earlier, but with Gudbranson gone, it looks like Petrovic just become their #2 RD so he won’t be going anywhere. Goes to show you how good they think Petrovic is and the type of player the Oilers should be looking for: 3rd pair RD players stuck behind top 4 players. Looking at NJD, I don’t see Severson as an option. I don’t think they’ll be willing to give him up. I know there has been a lot of ink spilled about healthy scratches, but Severson is a young player (21) and that is to be expected at that age. That doesn’t mean the team is ready to jettison you out the door if a trade comes along. I see Brett Pesce as a more likely target. He’s not as valuable, but he is young and Carolina can afford to let him go with some decent depth on the right side. Pysyk in Buffalo too. He’s stuck behind Roustalainen, Bogosian and Franson. That’s a tough lineup to crack. And Buffalo could use a left D to balance things out just like we could use a RD. Oesterle for Pysyk?

  36. Kepler62 says:

    Lowetiede, you said previously when the trade was made – “I also think Darnell Nurse is a better prospect now and into the future.”

    I don’t think that matters… at all. Fact is – the Oilers wouldn’t have given up Darnell Nurse for a 16th and 33rd pick… so he obviously has more value as a prospect but that has nothing to do with Reinhart.

    You also just said “this blog argued (correctly) that Darnell Nurse was farther along then, now and in the future.”

    I like that you generally don’t make claims you can’t support… but you absolutely cannot support that you are correct on this one. In a lot of the fancy stats the two were a wash – but some of the more advanced stuff that’s been done recently (such as preventing zone entries and zone exits) Reinhart came out on top by a fair margin.

    Full disclosure – I am absolutely a fan of Reinhart. I thought he was quite a bit ahead of Nurse last season especially at the end where he was consistently playing 20 minutes a night with a speedy partner in Oesterle. Previously he’d played with Gryba — doesn’t take a genius to see those two don’t really complement each others skill sets. Reinhart with Sekera would have been interesting to see as he would really complement Reinhart’s skills.

  37. jfry says:

    OMG, i’m so tired of this ducey guy!!! He always has an opinion on the WHOLE internet — seriously, write al gore!

    and LT always defending this plug dman. if his last name was pisani, Allan would have him up for awards!

    😉

    Ducey:
    Frankly, I don’t care who won what. I think he will be a fine player. I get tired of the internet. Its seems it was invented for people to complain about others.The Oilers have defensive depth now. They didn’t have it last offseason when Davidson and Oesterle were unknowns and Nurse was a rookie.

    I think the interesting thing about the trade yesterday and the Reinhart/ Hamilton trades is that the cost to acquire young D is coming into focus.

    It is going to cost either a first or someone of interest drafted in the first, a second rounder, and likely the equivalent of a third. A three for one.

    Speculate on the cost of Barrie, Vatanen, etc with this in mind.

    The Oilers are going to have to trade down substantially from 4, and throw in a 2nd and 3rd to get someone young and still under contract.

    I would hope that Yak, + a 2nd and a 3rd would do it, but I don’t think Yak is worth much more than a 2nd.That would make the cost a tradedown of the #4, Yak and a third.

    None of those deals make me happy. I could handle a tradedown of a few spots, but I doubt that will do it. It likely would have to be a tradedown of some 20-25 spots or so.

    I think if I am Chia I look to grab a vet from a cash strapped team, sign Demers, Gryba and someone like Campbell/ Yandel, and see what Yak will get me (a younger RH Dman). Fire Nurse and Reinhart on the farm, along with the young RH D.

    That might not get the team quite to the playoffs, but it would be an improvementand keep all the young pieces in place.

    Sekera- Demers
    Yandle/ Campbell – Fayne
    Davidson – Klefbom
    Gryba
    AHL: Nurse, Reinhart, Oesterle, RHD, Musil, Simpson

    That looks plenty good to me.

  38. G Money says:

    Reinhart paired with Oesterle had an up and down finish to the season – but a handful of dominant performances, where he was the best D on the ice (and that was even when facing some pretty tough customers – like holding the Sedins to zero Corsis in the second last game).

    Oesterle was a nice match for Reinhart, and also had some terrific games. Overall they were just OK, with some pretty terrible games, but considering they were a L/L pair (ha), they did really well IMO.

    They both showed they can play, and play well, in the NHL, and that’s a big deal. So the Reinhart haters especially might want to reign it in a bit.

    The good news is that despite what is unequivocally a really poor season overall, Nurse also had some very strong games down the stretch, even though paired mostly with (of all people) Adam Pardy.

    He’s also going to play in the NHL for a long time.

    At 21 (Nurse) and 22 (Reinhart), both of them have lots of learning curve blacktop, some of it steep, to go before hitting peak, which for D I believe occurs around 25. (No, I’m not making shit up. Yes, I have built an aging curve for defensemen.)

    Is either likely to be top pair? I doubt it.

    Most (perhaps all?) top pairing D are showing the ability to handle top competition at 21 or 22. Nurse has not shown that ability yet. So the “Nurse will dominate” people might want to reign it in a bit.

    Shades of grey.

    The Oilers roster is 50 spots.

    50 Shades of Grey.

    Well, us Oilers fans are clearly a masochistic lot, and we’re also quite obviously available to be abused by billionaires . . .

  39. square_wheels says:

    G Money,

    Gmoney with the thread mic drop.

  40. Rondo says:

    An interesting article. March 22/16

    “THE 4 DEFENSEMEN THE CANUCKS SHOULD CONSIDER AT THE TOP OF THE 2016 DRAFT”

    http://canucksarmy.com/2016/3/22/the-4-defencemen-the-canucks-should-consider-at-the-top-of-the-2016-draft

  41. Lowetide says:

    Kepler62:
    Lowetiede, you said previously when the trade was made – “I also think Darnell Nurse is a better prospect now and into the future.”

    I don’t think that matters… at all. Fact is – the Oilers wouldn’t have given up Darnell Nurse for a 16th and 33rd pick… so he obviously has more value as a prospect but that has nothing to do with Reinhart.

    You also just said “this blog argued (correctly) that Darnell Nurse was farther along then, now and in the future.”

    I like that you generally don’t make claims you can’t support… but you absolutely cannot support that you are correct on this one.In a lot of the fancy stats the two were a wash – but some of the more advanced stuff that’s been done recently (such as preventing zone entries and zone exits) Reinhart came out on top by a fair margin.

    Full disclosure – I am absolutely a fan of Reinhart. I thought he was quite a bit ahead of Nurse last season especially at the end where he was consistently playing 20 minutes a night with a speedy partner in Oesterle.Previously he’d played with Gryba — doesn’t take a genius to see those two don’t really complement each others skill sets.Reinhart with Sekera would have been interesting to see as he would really complement Reinhart’s skills.

    I claimed Nurse would win out over Reinhart last fall, and it happened just that way. I don’t have to claim anything, as the world turned exactly as suggested.

  42. square_wheels says:

    As much as we talk about Reinhart not being the greatest skater, let’s be clear – he is an average skater for a D. How the “heavy feet” gets thrown around is quite concerning, lots of players have what’s classically described as poor skating until you see them take a few strides at the right time and beat their man to the puck.

    When teaching people to skate, think of a speed skater…..the key is to keep the feet ON the ice, not dancing up in the air. I’ve seen countless skaters who look good and I can take 2 strides for their 4 and pass them smiling.

    Sure, there are many world class skaters in the NHL but there are as many poor skaters if compared to the very best. They still pass through all kinds of professional leagues and arrive in the NHL as competent players. Skating is very important but it takes quite a body of knowledge to describe someone’s skating as poor vs unorthodox. For a defencemen it’s crucial they can pivot and gain leverage.

    Now I’m going to go hunt YouTube for the Nik Lidstrom CLINIC on how to cover the Dzone without crossing his legs once. Nobody called him a fast skater but for a D, nobody had better technique for coverage and leverage.

  43. BONVIE says:

    Yes, great post Gmoney!!! I am looking forward to a breakout year for Reinhart, I am hoping the Oilers pick up a veteran who can play top pair minutes so we can break these two fine young guys into the NHL with veteran partner and NOT as the top pairing.

    Oilers need to look at their D depth as top 8 and top 10, and be prepared to have 2 of there top 6 d injured and still have the depth to have an adequate D. Every year they start with the bare minimum top 6 and have two of there key Defenseman injured at any given time in the season. A healthy defense corps seems unlikely on most teams but with the Oilers it can be pencilled in, key D injuries are like clock work plan for it.

  44. elphy101 says:

    Gmoney

    Sorry for all the excitement I seem to have caused with the handedness discussion.

    In reading/re-reading your posts and the handedness article, I was wrong and I was not putting enough weight on handedness. I was thinking of a 6% drop in performance on a math test/sales target type measurement. In high performance sports, it looks more like 6% can be the difference between being in the league and not being in the league.

    It leaves me wondering if Nurse’s poor advanced stats performance last year wasn’t heavily driven by the fact he spent most of the season in a lefty/lefty pairing.

    I will however re-frame my original question;

    If choosing a defenseman for next year, are we better off with Hamhuis or grabbing a much lower quality/unproven RH defensemen (i.e Anthony DeAngelo, Mark Pysyk, Eric Gryba)?

  45. elphy101 says:

    I keep looking at the four potential RH defensemen that are heavily discussed and I really struggle seeing a path to acquiring one nevermind two before next season.

    1) Demers: He will be the most coveted RH shot defensemen on the market. He will have 10+ bidding on his services if he even makes it to UFA as Dallas will re-sign a few of their dmen before that. We have Mcdavid & the new arena but does that override playing on a cup contender? Does that override the pressure of having the expectations of being a #1 dman on the decade’s worst hockey team in a hockey mad market that has actual winter?

    2) Barrie: Colorado needs dmen. If they trade Barrie it will be for defense. Unless we can find a three-way trade, I don’t see a Colorado-Edmonton trade happening. Talk is they already have Duchene on the market to acquire another defensemen.

    3) Faulk: Carolina needs a centerman and Nuge has ties to Carolina’s management so this might work. But who in their right mind would trade a 24 year old Justin Faulk that is signed at a reasonable rate long-term?

    4) Vaatanen: He is available but is not the caliber of the first three and he would be coming into Edmonton with expectation of being a top pairing defensemen and would be paid like one, contract demand is rumoured to be over 5MM. I am truly scared that this would be Justin Schultz playing above his skill level all over again. Vaatanen as a 4-5 is very appealing but not as a 2-3.

  46. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Slater Koekkoek looks good for Tampa during this run.
    He was drafted 10th overall in 2012.
    Reinhart was 4th.
    Don’t lose Hope.

  47. TheOtherJohn says:

    If I was asked to peg Reinhart’s ceiling I expect it will be as a 3rd pairing D. Nothing wrong with that. Hopefully he gets there in 2-3 years or by peak age 25. Not what team projected for him last year. Not value for what you’re paying him Significantly below any reasonable expectations

  48. Yak Efron says:

    Justin Schultz is going to play in the Stanley Cup Finals.

    Is this real life?

  49. Woodguy says:

    5’11” Bryan Rust only scored 0.6pts/gm in the AHL at 22 so Ducey Tambellini would have shuffled him along and gone younger.

  50. Ice Sage says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Slater Koekkoek looks good for Tampa during this run.
    He was drafted 10th overall in 2012.
    Reinhart was 4th.
    Don’t lose Hope.

    He’s been serviceable but not great – didn’t really push the play and was the goat on the first goal tonight. Better than Reinhart, yeah, by a bit, and he’s had some major injuries, too.

  51. BONVIE says:

    Woodguy:
    5’11” Bryan Rust only scored 0.6pts/gm in the AHL at 22 so Ducey Tambellini would have shuffled him along and gone younger.

    Hard work, and skate your butt off every shift!!!

  52. russ99 says:

    Yak Efron:
    Justin Schultz is going to play in the Stanley Cup Finals.

    Is this real life?

    If he gets his name on the Cup, I’d be overjoyed.

    Nothing is harder than being a fan of a player who’s so roundly slammed at every turn.

    Maybe that would teach Oilers fans a lesson, to not let the hyperbole get out of control.

  53. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Who wins the Cup Final?

    Let’s hear your predictions.

  54. LadiesloveSmid says:

    @Gmoney

    Klefbom only played 17 NHL games in his 20YO season. Was he handling any top competition? I know he looked pretty good towards the end, I thought mostly playing with Schultz in soft minutes though. Hopefully Nurse hits that learning curve

    on the note of Reinhart’s foot speed, I think he has pretty solid top speed just poor agility. Nurse and Reinhart should watch each other for a game

  55. LadiesloveSmid says:

    russ99,

    I agree.

    I bought a Schultz jersey after the lockout season. Regret it in hindsight but I really loved to watch him play, especially live. It’s sad what his confidence has gotten to, maybe playing deep into the cup finals will reinvigorate his career.

    Wonder where he signs in july

  56. BONVIE says:

    russ99: If he gets his name on the Cup, I’d be overjoyed.

    Nothing is harder than being a fan of a player who’s so roundly slammed at every turn.

    Maybe that would teach Oilers fans a lesson, to not let the hyperbole get out of control.

    A classic case of not having the advantage of playing with a veteran and NOT on the top pair, he is doing well in his slot in Pittsburgh and i am happy for him good to see him dust himself off.

  57. Lowetide says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Who wins the Cup Final?

    Let’s hear your predictions.

    I choose San Jose.

  58. godot10 says:

    Ice Sage: He’s been serviceable but not great – didn’t really push the play and was the goat on the first goal tonight.Better than Reinhart, yeah, by a bit, and he’s had some major injuries, too.

    Both Reinhart and Nurse would be more than serviceable 3rd pairing D playing with either Coburn or Garrison too.

  59. stevezie says:

    godot10: Ideally, one doesn’t trade Reinhart or Nurse.The Oilers need to add two D, preferably without subtracting.8D is NOT too many.

    I’m working off the assumption that we can’t make assets magically appear. I’m not sure cap space and the fourth sre going to be enough, and I’d rather lose Reinhardt than Pouliot or Nurse than Eberle.

    But yeah, most ideally cap space and some draft swaps get it done*.

    *i actually think this might be doable as there are going to be cap crunches all over the place and teams who’ll need to give away good players just to shed salary. Fire sales galore.

    But i don’t read anyone agreeing with me so I’m starting to doubt.

  60. Woodguy says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Who wins the Cup Final?

    Let’s hear your predictions.

    SJS is going to stomp on PIT’s depleted Dcorps in a way that TBY just isn’t built to do.

  61. Woodguy says:

    godot10: Both Reinhart and Nurse would be more than serviceable 3rd pairing D playing with either Coburn or Garrison too.

    He was playing 2nds with Garrison.

    Coburn-Sustr were 3rds.

    At least for the last few games.

  62. Woodguy says:

    Many, many people here thought Jultz would be passable as 3RD, 1PP.

    On PIT he plays 3RD, 1PP.

    It’s like playing NHL players at their established level of ability works or something.

  63. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Hi all,

    I like to think I am in camp 3.

    At the time of the trade I said:

    1) The price was steep.
    2) There were some question marks surrounding Reinhart as a pro and that the Islanders media said Pulock had passed him as a prospect (and it didn’t have to do with handedness).
    3) Lefty D already had a log jam in the pipeline: Klef, Nurse, Marincin, Davidson, Simpson, Musil, Oesterle. Reinhart though leapfrogged into 4th place just behind Marincin. Then we saw Marincin traded and later Sekera signed. Then Davey emerged and Sekera came on board and the Oilers’ D became the National Geographic crab with a large left claw and a puny right one.
    4) But that isn’t Reinhart’s fault.
    5) Barzal is a heck of a prospect but he is a set-up winger a la Hemsky, etc. Oilers have a lot of playmakers, not a lot of snipers.
    6) It is possible the Oilers lose the value trade but win the war of attrition.
    7) There is such a thing as a win-win trade.
    8) Snow did well getting great value from a position of excess.
    9) Believe it or not, Chia also traded from a position of excess: playmaking young winger.
    10) The odd part was trading to fill a position of reasonable depth that soon became a position of great excess.
    11) I very much think Reinhart should be kept, brought along slowly and will be a good top 4D down the line.

    I would add to that my further opinion since then that:
    12) Chia and Green were wrong on his NHL readiness.
    13) The emergence of Davidson is a good thing because Reinhart can be brought along slowly without throwing him in the deep end, if only Oiler fans would back off.
    14) Klefbom is an injury risk. Nurse is still figuring things out. That means Sekera and Davidson and then a lot of question marks. Reinhart will play 40 games in the NHL this year at least is my guess.
    15) This can still be a win-win trade. A top 4D, regardless of handedness is more vital to the Oilers with McDavid than a playmaking winger.
    16) The price paid was dear. This is on Chia and Green.
    17) None of this is Griff’s fault. Leave him be to develop. He is going to be a solid option.
    18) Why deal either of Nurse or Griff unless the guy coming back is a better right-handed guy like Risto? Don’t sell for pennies on the dollar when you don’t have to.

  64. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy: SJS is going to stomp on PIT’s depleted Dcorps in a way that TBY just isn’t built to do.

    Sharks in 7. I would be very happy for that whole team. That franchise has come a long way since the Cow Palace days.

  65. Johnny skid says:

    Yak Efron:
    Justin Schultz is going to play in the Stanley Cup Finals.

    Is this real life?

    just think next season it could just as easily be yak playing on a playoff team.

  66. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Yak Efron:
    Justin Schultz is going to play in the Stanley Cup Finals.

    Is this real life?

    A #6D with PP time– exactly what he should have been all along if the Oilers believed in sheltering him instead of saying the whole league tells our GM he is going to win multiple Norris Trophies one day.

  67. godot10 says:

    Woodguy: He was playing 2nds with Garrison.

    Coburn-Sustr were 3rds.

    At least for the last few games.

    Not by TOI he wasn’t.

  68. Rondo says:

    Klima’s_Bucket,

    Pittsburgh. Crosby is playing like the best player in the NHL.
    STL played it’s best hockey against Chicago. STL did not play well after that . I’m not sold on SJ or the West.

  69. The Trade Guy says:

    I’m cheering for SJ as I like first time cup winners. (would have cheered for the Blues too)

  70. stevezie says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: 18) Why deal either of Nurse or Griff unless the guy coming back is a better right-handed guy like Risto? Don’t sell for pennies on the dollar when you don’t have to.

    Totally. I don’t think anyone is suggesting trading them for the sake of trading them.

  71. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Stauff said after the draft that the oilers would have picked Eriksson Ek at 16, not Barzal. I was amped to see that he dropped that far, but I won’t measure GR up to him.

    TB and PIT’s defence are both so underwhelming, and yet they made it this far. 1 elite D on each team, TB has Stralman at #2 who is very good but aside from that the two D cores are pretty underwhelming. Should the oilers just go all in on an elite D that carries the pack? run 3 2nd pairings that share top comp?

  72. BONVIE says:

    Johnny skid: just think next season it could just as easily be yak playing on a playoff team.

    If he is on a playoff team my bet would be on his local KHL team.

  73. Richard S.S. says:

    Defenseman who can play in the NHL are as common as house flies and cost as much as you want to pay them. The very best in the NHL is as rare as hen’s teeth and extraordinarily and extremely painful to acquire, almost ruinous in it’s endeavor. You don’t win these trades. For those in between the price will vary greatly and will always cost more than you want to pay. Still, to get what you want, be prepared to suffer some pain.

    Goalies are gold, but one is never enough – three or four might not be enough. Defenseman who can play well at the NHL level are special and should never be traded without an upgrade returning. Centers are the currency of the NHL with just being good costing the world. Those who can be a #1 Centre (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins) are beyond price needing a king’s ransom just to start the bidding. Wingers on the other hand are only as good as the rest make them. Keep the natural born shooters and trade the rest. The millions paid for just a few more goals/assists are generally wasted.

    This offseason, Chiarelli must decide on what he can afford to trade. At least three picks get traded in this Draft possibly more in others. It’s possible Hall goes before Yakupov does and that won’t be a surprise.

  74. square_wheels says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Go all in ? As in draft and develop one because nobody trades them.

  75. Johnny skid says:

    BONVIE: If he is on a playoff team my bet would be on his local KHL team.

    give it ten years and you could be right..

  76. JimmyV1965 says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    I think that draft picks are overvalued, relative to the players taken, due to a combination of availability bias and the endowment effect. For the availability bias, it’s easier to remember the one good players in the draft, than it is to remember middling players or busts taken at the same position in the draft.

    For example, the 15 picks at #16 from 1996-2010 (chosen to represent developed players) were:
    Vladimir Tarasenko, Nick Leddy, Joe Colborne, Colton Gillies, Ty Wishart, Alex Bourret, Petteri Nokelainen, Steve Bernier, Jakub Klepis, RJ Umberger, Marcel Hossa, David Tanabe, Eric Chouinard, Ty Jones, and Mario Larocque. It’s easy to look down the list of the names, and think that it could be a Tarasenko level player. It certainly could, although it’s more likely that it’s not. No one would argue that it could be a Ty Wishart (playing in the DEL-2) or an Alex Bourret (last playing in the LNAH) or an Eric Chouinard (who got 90 games in the show, and is playing for Grenoble in France.)

    That availability bias, combined with the endowment effect, whereby people ascribe more value to things merely because they own them, and you can see how it’s natural that fans (and likely teams) overvalue their own prospects and picks. The psychology is the same as a lottery (which, for all intents and purposes, I guess this is.)

    As we’re in a thread dedicated to Griffin Reinhart, I thought I’d take a moment and attempt to dispel some of the bias by showing an example. I compared Barzal versus another WHL centre from the last five years, both right shooters, both on good teams, within an inch of height, 5 pounds of weight.

    Draft year -1 goals per game (minimum 59 games).
    Barzal: 0.237, Player Y: 0.273

    Draft year goals per game (minimum 44 games)
    Barzal: 0.273, Player Y: 0.397

    Draft year +1 goals per game (minimum 58 games)
    Barzal: 0.466, Player Y: 0.625

    OK, player Y is a little better goal scorer, but it’s pretty close. Now onto points per game.

    Draft year -1 points per game (minimum 59 games).
    Barzal: 0.915, Player Y: 0.697

    Draft year points per game (minimum 44 games)
    Barzal: 1.295, Player Y: 1.103

    Draft year +1 points per game (minimum 58 games)
    Barzal: 1.517, Player Y: 1.458

    Ok, Barzal’s ahead on points per game, but as you can see, it’s still quite close. Both players progressed on their teams at similar rates, and both have gone on to sign contracts with their respective teams.

    So, who’s player Y?

    Griffin’s former teammate, Michael St. Croix, who spent the season playing for the Greenville Swamp Rabbits (going 66gp -11g – 29a – 40pts.) As an Oil King fan, I thought that he was a sure-fire NHL’er, and wanted Edmonton to take him in his draft year.

    Does this mean that Barzal isn’t going to develop further, and have a productive NHL career? No, but it does indicate the great leap that’s required to make the NHL, and the odds of making it are quite slim the further you move down the draft.

    There was a great deal of teeth gnashing last year for moving the picks. It’ll be interesting to see how the picks play out over time.

    Very well said. Food for thought for everyone.

  77. BONVIE says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Stauff said after the draft that the oilers would have picked Eriksson Ek at 16, not Barzal. I was amped to see that he dropped that far, but I won’t measure GR up to him.

    TB and PIT’s defence are both so underwhelming, and yet they made it this far. 1 elite D on each team, TB has Stralman at #2 who is very good but aside from that the two D cores are pretty underwhelming. Should the oilers just go all in on an elite D that carries the pack? run 3 2nd pairings that share top comp?

    Tampa has Hedman, and Pittsburgh has Letang. True veteran premium number one Dmen. They also both have 4 lines of forwards that use speed in the neutral zone on the backcheck to angle of the puck carrier and take away his passing lanes and time and space, making playing defense much easier.

  78. Lowetide says:

    Schultz was a tough player to love, but we all saw the talent

    You were mad as hell at him at the end of the season. Schultz made so many bad reads last year, I seriously wonder about his ability to play the position well enough to avoid being a liability—even after 300 games. I understand part of that comes with playing SO MUCH defense—Oilers blue had multiple defensive sorties most shifts—but he got himself into a lot of trouble with his decision making.
    Do you think he will improve if backed off in TOI? It could help. If Schultz can gain some confidence and improve his ability to do what should come naturally (finding open men and getting them the puck, closing gaps) then he might be a very useful player.
    He’s kind of an unusual player. Yes. He doesn’t have a great shot and he doesn’t pass as well as he should. His calm feet (and he has them) make him appear lazy, disinterested.
    You’re not wild-eyed and crazy when talking about Schultz. I miss that. Well, I’m not at all certain McLellan can unlock him but this is a dynamite chance for the young man and the NHL is full of imperfect defensemen. Maybe there’s a way.
    Okay, what does he do well? Skating is a strength and in the offensive zone, with time, he’s deadly. His ability to stealth his way down the zone on the back door play is exceptional, I love watching him do it.

    https://lowetide.ca/2015/08/10/re-15-16-justin-schultz-another-nail-in-the-heart/

  79. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide,

    Yup.
    Am going to allow myself to lament what could have been…
    As a Rangers season ticket holder I was pounding the table on getting Stralman. Dude had been a journeyman his whole career. Amazing story with the eye and all. He just wanted a multi-year deal to take care of his family. Sather goofed and gave his money to Girardi even as we who knew hockey knew it was Stralman tbat was the goods.

    That was independent of mc79’s assessment of him.

    Instead we got Nikitin.

    Could have had Stralman. Should have kept Petry.

    Stralman-Petry-Schultz right side. Left side probably wouldn’t have had money for Sekera but that’s offset and then some by Stralman.

    Schultz could have played 14 or so sheltered, even-strength minutes a night and 4 on PP. Stralman and Petry split the rest of the evens.

    What could have been. Sigh. alas no McDavid though if we had that D.

  80. LadiesloveSmid says:

    BONVIE,

    Yes, 1 elite D on both teams. Hedman and Letang.

    EDM does have a problem of lacking 2-way forwards… Dubois, anybody?

  81. dustrock says:

    San Jose is my team but man Pittsburgh is playing well.

    I was impressed with how the Sharks handled the Blues’ pretty decent D corps.

  82. LadiesloveSmid says:

    square_wheels:
    LadiesloveSmid,

    Go all in ? As in draft and develop one because nobody trades them.

    I don’t know when D typically will hit elite, but I hope you’re meaning one of Klefbom/Nurse because otherwise they are years and years of developing (and hopefully succeeding) out from winning anything.

    Do you go all in, as in trade RNH+Nurse+4th overall for Subban+whatever? Do you trade Draisaitl for Parayko and hope he trends as he has?

  83. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    stevezie: Totally. I don’t think anyone is suggesting trading them for the sake of trading them.

    Well actually some people advocate trading one just for handedness, not necessarily an upgrade.

  84. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    LadiesloveSmid: I don’t know when D typically will hit elite, but I hope you’re meaning one of Klefbom/Nurse because otherwise they are years and years of developing (and hopefully succeeding) out from winning anything.

    Do you go all in, as in trade RNH+Nurse+4th overall for Subban+whatever? Do you trade Draisaitl for Parayko and hope he trends as he has?

    I honestly don’t think St. Louis touches that, as good as Drai is. Players with Parayko’s tools just don’t come along. And he is cost-controlled so they can trade Shattenkirk to address needs at C.

    That said, I am not sure that’s a trade the Oilers want to make, either.

    The Montreal deal I wouldn’t do, even though I love Subban, unless Montreal retains at least 3m. Love PK but 9M is too much for one player, especially when McDavid re-ups. 20M in two players is too much.

  85. Магия 10 says:

    G Money: So the Reinhart haters especially might want to reign it in a bit.

    Word substitutions are sometimes quite ironic. Reigning is what they’ve be doing. Reining is what they should be doing.

  86. limit says:

    Sid will get his 2nd cup to equal Mario.

    You guys picking SJS, have you looked at their Fenwick 5v5 close during playoffs compared to Pitts, or are you just going on “see them good”?

  87. JimmyV1965 says:

    elphy101:
    I keep looking at the four potential RH defensemen that are heavily discussed and I really struggle seeing a path to acquiring one nevermind two before next season.

    1) Demers:He will be the most coveted RH shot defensemen on the market. He will have 10+ bidding on his services if he even makes it to UFA as Dallas will re-sign a few of their dmen before that.We have Mcdavid & the new arena but does that override playing on a cup contender? Does that override the pressure of having the expectations of being a #1 dman on the decade’s worst hockey team in a hockey mad market that has actual winter?

    2) Barrie:Colorado needs dmen. If they trade Barrie it will be for defense. Unless we can find a three-way trade, I don’t see a Colorado-Edmonton trade happening.Talk is they already have Duchene on the market to acquire another defensemen.

    3) Faulk:Carolina needs a centerman and Nuge has ties to Carolina’s management so this might work. But who in their right mind would trade a 24 year old Justin Faulk that is signed at a reasonable rate long-term?

    4) Vaatanen: He is available but is not the caliber of the first three and he would be coming into Edmonton with expectation of being a top pairing defensemen and would be paid like one, contract demand is rumoured to be over 5MM. I am truly scared that this would be Justin Schultz playing above his skill level all over again. Vaatanen as a 4-5 is very appealing but not as a 2-3.

    I think we have to get Faulk and be prepared to overpay. Any of the other options are just not good enough. At least with Faulk, he may actually be moving into a better situation. RNH and the 4th is an overpayment, but I don’t care if were lose the trade. We need major improvement.

  88. Kepler62 says:

    Lowetide: I claimed Nurse would win out over Reinhart last fall, and it happened just that way. I don’t have to claim anything, as the world turned exactly as suggested.

    I think you know as well as I do that the jury is still out on who is better or farther along as a prospect…

  89. kinger_OIL says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    – Nice post: re: who we can rely on for D: Disagree strongly. We have only 1 bonafide D: Sek is the D that we can pencil in and know who he is. You can’t trust Davey yet. Agree on everyone else. Just a garbage D right now: bottom of league: hoping for Klef, Nurse et al. Terrible state.

    – Are you saying get a top-4D regardless of hand? Outrageous

  90. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Funny how “be prepared to overpay” turns into “hell to pay” after the fact.

  91. Lowetide says:

    Kepler62: I think you know as well as I do that the jury is still out on who is better or farther along as a prospect…

    That is basically the question I asked at the top of the page. I don’t think all of Klefbom, Nurse and Reinhart will play long term as Oilers. Who do you keep? Do you keep them because they are the most talented, or the two who are quite talented but do not have the highest trade value?

  92. wheatnoil says:

    G Money:
    The good news is that despite what is unequivocally a really poor season overall, Nurse also had some very strong games down the stretch, even though paired mostly with (of all people) Adam Pardy.

    I know we have too many left-handed D and have plenty of depth D and need to aim higher…

    … but Pardy might actually be a player. He played about 10 games for the Oilers at the end of the year and had a 50% corsi. That’s not easy to achieve!

    The word out of Winnipeg is that he didn’t do poorly there, but never really caught on with Maurice. He was probably a better option than at least a couple of their D-men.

    I keep downplaying his zone transition skills on account of small sample size (and I should) but he continues to look good in the games I track.

    If the Oilers brought him back as a 7D to push Nurse / Reinhart to the minors, I wouldn’t complain. I’d prefer him over Gryba as the 7D.

  93. b10011 says:

    russ99,

    Exactly! Plus Justin appears quite a bit more confident and skilled playing third pairing/spot minutes, maybe there’s a lesson here for the Oilers management/coach too?

  94. wheatnoil says:

    Also, I take San Jose in 6.

  95. JimmyV1965 says:

    The interesting thing is if we refuse to overpay for a legit difference maker at RD this year, and nibble around at the edges like we always do by signing marginal free agents, the value of players like RNH, Hall and Ebs will continue to erode. Even worse, when does someone like Halll throw in the towel and demand a trade? If I was Hall, and I was forced to play with the worst dmen in the league yet again, I would really think about moving on. I don’t want to trade RNH or the 4th, but the time for tinkering and hoping ended a long time ago.

  96. anjinsan says:

    The issue was the trade, THE PRICE THAT WAS PAID. If you pay that kind of price, you have to get serious D, not excuses or “he needs more time” or ridicule directed at the Oilers D in general.

    The Reinhart trade was incompetent and Seguin-trade stupid.
    The Oilers paid out Barzal/Kyle Connor at 16 and Brandon Carlo at 33 for Reinhart.
    If we had Barzal/Connor and Carlo, we’d be celebrating!
    Reinhart had already gone through his developmental trajectory. The problem was Bob Green didn’t know or believe the facts, and persuaded Chiarelli Reinhart was going to break into greatness NOW — on what basis, exactly?…uh, because of his Oil Kings days.
    Reinhart is slow and he’s not a warrior like Gudbranson. When Snow put the phone down he had to have played it sooooo cool before calming down and snatching up Barzal (and the thing is, he wasn’t even through).

    The sad thing for an Oiler fan is that Chiarelli may piss away the first two picks again. Chiarelli is motivated to get the Oilers to the playoffs and bolt Edmonton; he is not pursuing a vision of a great team over lots of years — his only vision is the hard, heavy game.

    Why didn’t Chiarelli bid on Gudbranson?…incompetence again…he probably thinks Gryba is as good.

  97. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: That is basically the question I asked at the top of the page. I don’t think all of Klefbom, Nurse and Reinhart will play long term as Oilers. Who do you keep? Do you keep them because they are the most talented, or the two who are quite talented but do not have the highest trade value?

    Things will sort out over time. The universe will unfold as it should. Is Klefbom’s skin irritation problem chronic? Who is willing to sign reasonable contracts. Predicting who will step forward, who will stagnate, and who might regress is a fool’s game. You keep them for as long as you can till you know what each player is.

    Ideally, the Oilers still need all of their six D right now, and need to add two more. Might they have to trade one of Nurse or Reinhart to get one of the two top 4 right shot D. Perhaps. But teams trading a top 4 D are usually looking for a top six forward or a proven D in return or draft picks…because they wouldn’t be trading a top 4D unless they have the depth already to cover the position.

    Vatanen probably doesn’t require a D in return.

    If Faulk is on the market, the main piece going back is probably a centre, not a prospect D.

    If Barrie is traded, the Avalanche probably want a top 4 back, not a less developed D.

    I can see a prospective left D going to Winnipeg in a trade for Trouba, but the safest way to target Trouba might be with an offer sheet.

    Demers only costs money. Campbell, the same.

  98. godot10 says:

    anjinsan:

    Why didn’t Chiarelli bid on Gudbranson?…incompetence again…he probably thinks Gryba is as good.

    Gudbranson is already near UFA status. He is already at $3.5 milliion. His next contract is going to be over $4 million with duration and he is at best a #4 defensemen. There is no value for money in Gudbranson.

    The Oilers already have the player type, defensive D, in Fayne signed for two more years, and the potential to re-sigin Gryba for less. And Reinhart and Nurse are potentially better versions of Gudbranson.

    The Oilers need two top 4D who are strong puck movers….not a defensive D like Gudbranson.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca